Pathways to Youth Empowerment and Community Connectedness: A Study of Youth-Adult Partnership in Malaysian After-School, Co-Curricular Programs.

PubMed

Zeldin, Shepherd; Krauss, Steven Eric; Kim, Taehan; Collura, Jessica; Abdullah, Haslinda

2016-08-01

After-school programs are prevalent across the world, but there is a paucity of research that examines quality within the "black box" of programs at the point of service. Grounded in current theory, this research examined hypothesized pathways between the experience of youth-adult partnership (youth voice in decision-making; supportive adult relationships), the mediators of program safety and engagement, and the developmental outcomes of youth empowerment (leadership competence, policy control) and community connectedness (community connections, school attachment). Surveys were administered to 207 ethnically diverse (47.3 % female; 63.3 % Malay) youth, age 15-16, attending after-school co-curricular programs in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Results showed that youth voice in program decision-making predicted both indicators of youth empowerment. Neither youth voice nor supportive adult relationships was directly associated with community connectedness, however. Program engagement mediated the associations between youth-adult partnership and empowerment. In contrast, program safety mediated the associations between youth-adult partnership and community connectedness. The findings indicate that the two core components of youth-adult partnership-youth voice and supportive adult relationships-may operate through different, yet complementary, pathways of program quality to predict developmental outcomes. Implications for future research are highlighted. For reasons of youth development and youth rights, the immediate challenge is to create opportunities for youth to speak on issues of program concern and to elevate those adults who are able and willing to help youth exercise their voice.

Aggression and Violence and the Achievement Gap among Urban Minority Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Basch, Charles E.

2011-01-01

Objectives: To outline the prevalence and disparities of aggression and violence among school-aged urban minority youth, causal pathways through which aggression and violence adversely affects academic achievement, and proven or promising approaches for schools to address these problems. Methods: Literature review. Results: Recent national data…

Teen Pregnancy and the Achievement Gap among Urban Minority Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Basch, Charles E.

2011-01-01

Objectives: To outline the prevalence and disparities of teen pregnancy among school-aged urban minority youth, causal pathways through which nonmarital teen births adversely affects academic achievement, and proven or promising approaches for schools to address this problem. Methods: Literature review. Results: In 2006, the birth rate among 15-…

Using State Child Labor Laws to Identify the Causal Effect of Youth Employment on Deviant Behavior and Academic Achievement

PubMed Central

Bushway, Shawn D.; Paternoster, Raymond; Brame, Robert; Sweeten, Gary

2013-01-01

On the basis of prior research findings that employed youth, and especially intensively employed youth, have higher rates of delinquent behavior and lower academic achievement, scholars have called for limits on the maximum number of hours per week that teenagers are allowed to work. We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to assess the claim that employment and work hours are causally related to adolescent problem behavior. We utilize a change model with age-graded child labor laws governing the number of hours per week allowed during the school year as instrumental variables. We find that these work laws lead to additional number of hours worked by youth, which then lead to increased high school dropout but decreased delinquency. Although counterintuitive, this result is consistent with existing evidence about the effect of employment on crime for adults and the impact of dropout on youth crime. PMID:23825897

Supporting Opportunity Youth on Postsecondary Pathways: Lessons from Two States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Youth Policy Forum, 2015

2015-01-01

Out of 38.9 million Americans who fall into the 16-24 age range, approximately 6.7 million are Opportunity Youth--youth neither in school nor working--who face more pronounced barriers to success. This report shows how programs and policies in two states, Connecticut and Michigan, are responding to the need for postsecondary pathways, especially…

Pathways linking parental divorce with adolescent depression.

PubMed

Aseltine, R H

1996-06-01

This article examines the intervening pathways linking parental divorce with adolescent depression, using both cross-sectional and prospective data from a study of high school students in the Boston metropolitan area. Overall, findings reveal that parental divorce is linked with adolescent depression in two ways: (1) it is a source of numerous secondary problems and stresses that are causally related to depression, and (2) it alters youths' reactivity to these stresses, in some cases enhancing, but in other cases mitigating, their depressive effects. Analyses demonstrated the central role of economic hardship in linking family status with depression, with the strength of this indirect pathway partly attributable to the greater vulnerability of youths in single-parent families to financial stresses. In contrast, family conflict did not account for the distress of youths in single-parent families, largely because of their immunity to the effects of such conflict. Finally, prospective data failed to support the hypothesis that differences between youths in single-parent and intact families predate the divorce.

Inferring hidden causal relations between pathway members using reduced Google matrix of directed biological networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Signaling pathways represent parts of the global biological molecular network which connects them into a seamless whole through complex direct and indirect (hidden) crosstalk whose structure can change during development or in pathological conditions. We suggest a novel methodology, called Googlomics, for the structural analysis of directed biological networks using spectral analysis of their Google matrices, using parallels with quantum scattering theory, developed for nuclear and mesoscopic physics and quantum chaos. We introduce analytical “reduced Google matrix” method for the analysis of biological network structure. The method allows inferring hidden causal relations between the members of a signaling pathway or a functionally related group of genes. We investigate how the structure of hidden causal relations can be reprogrammed as a result of changes in the transcriptional network layer during cancerogenesis. The suggested Googlomics approach rigorously characterizes complex systemic changes in the wiring of large causal biological networks in a computationally efficient way. PMID:29370181

A review of protective factors and causal mechanisms that enhance the mental health of Indigenous Circumpolar youth.

PubMed

MacDonald, Joanna Petrasek; Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Ross, Nancy A

2013-12-09

To review the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. A systematic literature review of peer-reviewed English-language research was conducted to systematically examine the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with elements of a realist review. From 160 records identified in the initial search of 3 databases, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were retained for full review. Data were extracted using a codebook to organize and synthesize relevant information from the articles. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social environment, which interacts with factors at the individual level to enhance resilience. An emphasis on the roles of cultural and land-based activities, history, and language, as well as on the importance of social and family supports, also emerged throughout the literature. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social

A review of protective factors and causal mechanisms that enhance the mental health of Indigenous Circumpolar youth

PubMed Central

MacDonald, Joanna Petrasek; Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Ross, Nancy A.

2013-01-01

Objectives To review the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Study design A systematic literature review of peer-reviewed English-language research was conducted to systematically examine the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Methods This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with elements of a realist review. From 160 records identified in the initial search of 3 databases, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were retained for full review. Data were extracted using a codebook to organize and synthesize relevant information from the articles. Results More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social environment, which interacts with factors at the individual level to enhance resilience. An emphasis on the roles of cultural and land-based activities, history, and language, as well as on the importance of social and family supports, also emerged throughout the literature. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively

Mapping Resilience Pathways of Indigenous Youth in Five Circumpolar Communities

PubMed Central

Allen, James; Hopper, Kim; Wexler, Lisa; Kral, Michael; Rasmus, Stacy; Nystad, Kristine

2014-01-01

This introduction to the special issue Indigenous Youth Resilience in the Arctic reviews relevant resilience theory and research, with particular attention to Arctic Indigenous youth. The role of social determinants and community resilience processes in Indigenous circumpolar settings are overviewed, as are emergent Indigenous resilience frameworks. The distinctive role for qualitative inquiry in understanding these frameworks is emphasized, as is the uniquely informative lens youth narratives offer in understanding Indigenous, cultural, and community resilience processes during times of social transition. We then describe key elements of the Circumpolar Indigenous Pathways to Adulthood study cross-site methods, including sampling, design, procedures, and analytic strategies. PMID:23965730

Right external globus pallidus changes are associated with altered causal awareness in youth with depression

PubMed Central

Griffiths, K R; Lagopoulos, J; Hermens, D F; Hickie, I B; Balleine, B W

2015-01-01

Cognitive impairment is a functionally disabling feature of depression contributing to maladaptive decision-making, a loss of behavioral control and an increased disease burden. The ability to calculate the causal efficacy of ones actions in achieving specific goals is critical to normal decision-making and, in this study, we combined voxel-based morphometry (VBM), shape analysis and diffusion tensor tractography to investigate the relationship between cortical–basal ganglia structural integrity and such causal awareness in 43 young subjects with depression and 21 demographically similar healthy controls. Volumetric analysis determined a relationship between right pallidal size and sensitivity to the causal status of specific actions. More specifically, shape analysis identified dorsolateral surface vertices where an inward location was correlated with reduced levels of causal awareness. Probabilistic tractography revealed that affected parts of the pallidum were primarily connected with the striatum, dorsal thalamus and hippocampus. VBM did not reveal any whole-brain gray matter regions that correlated with causal awareness. We conclude that volumetric reduction within the indirect pathway involving the right dorsolateral pallidum is associated with reduced awareness of the causal efficacy of goal-directed actions in young depressed individuals. This causal awareness task allows for the identification of a functionally and biologically relevant subgroup to which more targeted cognitive interventions could be applied, potentially enhancing the long-term outcomes for these individuals. PMID:26440541

Socioeconomic Status and the Health of Youth: A Multilevel, Multidomain Approach to Conceptualizing Pathways

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schreier, Hannah M. C.; Chen, Edith

2013-01-01

Previous research has clearly established associations between low socioeconomic status (SES) and poor youth physical health outcomes. This article provides an overview of the main pathways through which low SES environments come to influence youth health. We focus on 2 prevalent chronic health problems in youth today, asthma and obesity. We…

In Delaware, Creating Pathways and Opportunities for Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothman, Robert

2017-01-01

Launched in 2011 by the Harvard Graduate School of Education and Jobs for the Future, the Pathways to Prosperity initiative is helping states create seamless transitions from high school to college and the workforce. Inspired by youth development systems that have long been in place in other high-performing nations--such as Australia, Switzerland,…

Transactional Pathways of Transgender Identity Development in Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Youth and Caregivers from the Trans Youth Family Study

PubMed Central

Katz-Wise, Sabra L.; Budge, Stephanie L.; Fugate, Ellen; Flanagan, Kaleigh; Touloumtzis, Currie; Rood, Brian; Perez-Brumer, Amaya; Leibowitz, Scott

2017-01-01

Background A growing body of research has examined transgender identity development, but no studies have investigated developmental pathways as a transactional process between youth and caregivers, incorporating perspectives from multiple family members. The aim of this study was to conceptualize pathways of transgender identity development using narratives from both transgender and gender nonconforming (TGN) youth and their cisgender (non-transgender) caregivers. Methods The sample included 16 families, with 16 TGN youth, ages 7–18 years, and 29 cisgender caregivers (N = 45 family members). TGN youth represented multiple gender identities, including trans boy (n = 9), trans girl (n = 5), gender fluid boy (n = 1), and girlish boy (n = 1). Caregivers included mothers (n = 17), fathers (n = 11), and one grandmother. Participants were recruited from LGBTQ community organizations and support networks for families with transgender youth in the Midwest, Northeast, and South regions of the United States. Each family member completed a one-time in-person semi-structured qualitative interview that included questions about transgender identity development. Results Analyses revealed seven overarching themes of transgender identity development, which were organized into a conceptual model: Trans identity development, sociocultural influences/societal discourse, biological influences, family adjustment/impact, stigma/cisnormativity, support/resources, and gender affirmation/actualization. Conclusions Findings underscore the importance of assessing developmental processes among TGN youth as transactional, impacting both youth and their caregivers. PMID:29527139

Causal Link between the Cortico-Rubral Pathway and Functional Recovery through Forced Impaired Limb Use in Rats with Stroke

PubMed Central

Ishida, Akimasa; Isa, Kaoru; Umeda, Tatsuya; Kobayashi, Kazuto; Kobayashi, Kenta; Hida, Hideki

2016-01-01

Intensive rehabilitation is believed to induce use-dependent plasticity in the injured nervous system; however, its causal relationship to functional recovery is unclear. Here, we performed systematic analysis of the effects of forced use of an impaired forelimb on the recovery of rats after lesioning the internal capsule with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Forced limb use (FLU) group rats exhibited better recovery of skilled forelimb functions and their cortical motor area with forelimb representation was restored and enlarged on the ipsilesional side. In addition, abundant axonal sprouting from the reemerged forelimb area was found in the ipsilateral red nucleus after FLU. To test the causal relationship between the plasticity in the cortico-rubral pathway and recovery, loss-of-function experiments were conducted using a double-viral vector technique, which induces selective blockade of the target pathway. Blockade of the cortico-rubral tract resulted in deficits of the recovered forelimb function in FLU group rats. These findings suggest that the cortico-rubral pathway is a substrate for recovery induced by intensive rehabilitation after ICH. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The research aimed at determining the causal linkage between reorganization of the motor pathway induced by intensive rehabilitative training and recovery after stroke. We clarified the expansion of the forelimb representation area of the ipsilesional motor cortex by forced impaired forelimb use (FLU) after lesioning the internal capsule with intracerebral hemorrhaging (ICH) in rats. Anterograde tracing showed robust axonal sprouting from the forelimb area to the red nucleus in response to FLU. Selective blockade of the cortico-rubral pathway by the novel double-viral vector technique clearly revealed that the increased cortico-rubral axonal projections had causal linkage to the recovery of reaching movements induced by FLU. Our data demonstrate that the cortico-rubral pathway is responsible for the

Exposure to Community Violence and Sexual Behaviors Among African American Youth: Testing Multiple Pathways.

PubMed

Voisin, Dexter R; Hotton, Anna; Neilands, Torsten

2018-01-01

African American youth bear a disproportionate burden of sexually transmitted infections. A growing number of studies document that youth exposure to community violence and sexual behaviors are highly correlated. Despite such growing evidence, only a few studies have empirically tested conceptually driven pathways that may account for such relationships. This study seeks to address that gap by exploring multiple pathways linking exposure to community violence and youth sexual behaviors. Using an existing sample of 563 African American youth attending high school, we examined whether possible links between exposure to community violence and sexual activity, sexual risk behaviors were mediated by aggression, low student-teacher connectedness, and negative peer norms. Major findings indicated indirect relationships between exposures to community violence and both sexual activity and risky sex, mediated by aggression and negative peer norms with no significant differences based on gender or socioeconomic status. Overall findings also indicated a significant indirect effect of aggression to risky sex via negative peer norms and from community violence to risky peer norms via aggression. By illuminating ways that community violence, aggression, peer norms, and sexual behaviors are dynamically interrelated, these findings have significant implications for future research and intervention initiatives aimed at addressing the different pathways.

HIV prevention for South African youth: which interventions work? A systematic review of current evidence

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In South Africa, HIV prevalence among youth aged 15-24 is among the world's highest. Given the urgent need to identify effective HIV prevention approaches, this review assesses the evidence base for youth HIV prevention in South Africa. Methods Systematic, analytical review of HIV prevention interventions targeting youth in South Africa since 2000. Critical assessment of interventions in 4 domains: 1) study design and outcomes, 2) intervention design (content, curriculum, theory, adaptation process), 3) thematic focus and HIV causal pathways, 4) intervention delivery (duration, intensity, who, how, where). Results Eight youth HIV prevention interventions were included; all were similar in HIV prevention content and objectives, but varied in thematic focus, hypothesised causal pathways, theoretical basis, delivery method, intensity and duration. Interventions were school- (5) or group-based (3), involving in- and out-of-school youth. Primary outcomes included HIV incidence (2), reported sexual risk behavior alone (4), or with alcohol use (2). Interventions led to reductions in STI incidence (1), and reported sexual or alcohol risk behaviours (5), although effect size varied. All but one targeted at least one structural factor associated with HIV infection: gender and sexual coercion (3), alcohol/substance use (2), or economic factors (2). Delivery methods and formats varied, and included teachers (5), peer educators (5), and older mentors (1). School-based interventions experienced frequent implementation challenges. Conclusions Key recommendations include: address HIV social risk factors, such as gender, poverty and alcohol; target the structural and institutional context; work to change social norms; and engage schools in new ways, including participatory learning. PMID:20187957

Pathways to College for Former Foster Youth: Understanding Factors that Contribute to Educational Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merdinger, Joan M.; Hines, Alice M.; Osterling, Kathy Lemon; Wyatt, Paige

2005-01-01

This article presents early descriptive findings from the Pathways to College study, a multimethod and multiphase study of emancipated foster youth. Results based on a sample of 216 emancipated foster youth attending a four-year university indicate that many of their experiences are characteristic of individuals manifesting resilience in the face…

Pathway Analysis and the Search for Causal Mechanisms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weller, Nicholas; Barnes, Jeb

2016-01-01

The study of causal mechanisms interests scholars across the social sciences. Case studies can be a valuable tool in developing knowledge and hypotheses about how causal mechanisms function. The usefulness of case studies in the search for causal mechanisms depends on effective case selection, and there are few existing guidelines for selecting…

Temporal Expression Profiling Identifies Pathways Mediating Effect of Causal Variant on Phenotype

PubMed Central

Gupta, Saumya; Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Raharja-Liu, Pandu; Lin, Gen; Steinmetz, Lars M.; Gagneur, Julien; Sinha, Himanshu

2015-01-01

allele-specific transcriptional dynamics of mediating genes. Applications in higher eukaryotes can be valuable for inferring causal molecular pathways underlying complex dynamic processes, such as development, physiology and disease progression. PMID:26039065

The complex spine: the multidimensional system of causal pathways for low-back disorders.

PubMed

Marras, William S

2012-12-01

The aim of this study was to examine the logic behind the knowledge of low-back problem causal pathways. Low-back pain and low-back disorders (LBDs) continue to represent the major musculoskeletal risk problem in the workplace,with the prevalence and costs of such disorders increasing over time. In recent years, there has been much criticism of the ability of ergonomics methods to control the risk of LBDs. Logical assessment of the systems logic associated with our understanding and prevention of LBDs. Current spine loading as well as spine tolerance research efforts are bringing the field to the point where there is a better systems understanding of the inextricable link between the musculoskeletal system and the cognitive system. Loading is influenced by both the physical environment factors as well as mental demands, whereas tolerances are defined by both physical tissue tolerance and biochemically based tissue sensitivities to pain. However, the logic used in many low-back risk assessment tools may be overly simplistic, given what is understood about causal pathways. Current tools typically assess only load or position in a very cursory manner. Efforts must work toward satisfying both the physical environment and the cognitive environment for the worker if one is to reliably lower the risk of low-back problems. This systems representation of LBD development may serve as a guide to identify gaps in our understanding of LBDs.

A review of cognitive biases in youth depression: attention, interpretation and memory.

PubMed

Platt, Belinda; Waters, Allison M; Schulte-Koerne, Gerd; Engelmann, Lina; Salemink, Elske

2017-04-01

Depression is one of the most common mental health problems in childhood and adolescence. Although data consistently show it is associated with self-reported negative cognitive styles, less is known about the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Cognitive biases in attention, interpretation and memory represent plausible mechanisms and are known to characterise adult depression. We provide the first structured review of studies investigating the nature and causal role of cognitive biases in youth depression. Key questions are (i) do cognitive biases characterise youth depression? (ii) are cognitive biases a vulnerability factor for youth depression? and (iii) do cognitive biases play a causal role in youth depression? We find consistent evidence for positive associations between attention and interpretation biases and youth depression. Stronger biases in youth with an elevated risk of depression support cognitive-vulnerability models. Preliminary evidence from cognitive bias modification paradigms supports a causal role of attention and interpretation biases in youth depression but these paradigms require testing in clinical samples before they can be considered treatment tools. Studies of memory biases in youth samples have produced mixed findings and none have investigated the causal role of memory bias. We identify numerous areas for future research in this emerging field.

Testing pathways linking exposure to community violence and sexual behaviors among African American youth.

PubMed

Voisin, Dexter R; Hotton, Anna L; Neilands, Torsten B

2014-09-01

Exposure to community violence and HIV sexual risks are two major public health concerns among youth. This study tests various pathways linking exposure to community violence and sexual behaviors among African American adolescents. Using a sample of 563 (61% females) African American youth attending high school we examined whether problematic psychological symptoms, low school engagement, and/or negative perceptions of peer norms about safer sex functioned as pathways linking exposure to community violence and sexual behaviors. Major findings indicated that, for boys, the relationship between exposure to community violence and sexual début and sexual risk behaviors were linked by aggression. In addition, the relationship between exposure to community violence and sexual risk behaviors were linked by negative perceptions of peer attitudes about safer sex. For girls, the relationship between exposure to community violence and sexual début was linked by aggression and negative perceptions of peer attitudes about safer sex. These findings provide support for pathways linking exposure to community violence to sexual behaviors.

Potential Pathways from Stigmatization and Externalizing Behavior to Anger and Dating Aggression in Sexually Abused Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feiring, Candice; Simon, Valerie A.; Cleland, Charles M.; Barrett, Ellen P.

2013-01-01

Although experiencing childhood sexual abuse (CSA) puts youth at risk for involvement in relationship violence, research is limited on the potential pathways from CSA to subsequent dating aggression. The current study examined prospective pathways from externalizing behavior problems and stigmatization (abuse-specific shame and self-blame…

Potential pathways from stigmatization and externalizing behavior to anger and dating aggression in sexually abused youth.

PubMed

Feiring, Candice; Simon, Valerie A; Cleland, Charles M; Barrett, Ellen P

2013-01-01

Although experiencing childhood sexual abuse (CSA) puts youth at risk for involvement in relationship violence, research is limited on the potential pathways from CSA to subsequent dating aggression. The current study examined prospective pathways from externalizing behavior problems and stigmatization (abuse-specific shame and self-blame attributions) to anger and dating aggression. One hundred sixty youth (73% female, 69% ethnic/racial minorities) with confirmed CSA histories were interviewed at the time of abuse discovery (T1, when they were 8-15 years of age), and again 1 and 6 years later (T2 and T3). Externalizing behavior and abuse-specific stigmatization were assessed at T1 and T2. Anger and dating aggression were assessed at T3. The structural equation model findings supported the proposed relations from stigmatization following the abuse to subsequent dating aggression through anger. Only externalizing behavior at T1 was related to later dating aggression, and externalizing was not related to subsequent anger. This longitudinal research suggests that clinical interventions for victims of CSA be sensitive to the different pathways by which youth come to experience destructive conflict behavior in their romantic relationships.

Extending the construct of psychopathy to youth: implications for understanding, diagnosing, and treating antisocial children and adolescents.

PubMed

Frick, Paul J

2009-12-01

This paper reviews several attempts to extend the construct of psychopathy to children and adolescents. The research suggests that the presence of callous-unemotional (CU) traits may be particularly important. Specifically, the presence of these traits designates a clinically important subgroup of youth with childhood-onset conduct problems who show a particularly severe, aggressive, and stable pattern of antisocial behaviour. Also, children with CU traits show numerous emotional, cognitive, and personality features that are distinct from other antisocial youth that are similar to features found in adults with psychopathy. The research on CU traits has important implications for understanding the different causal pathways through which children develop severe antisocial and aggressive behaviour, as well as implications for diagnosing and intervening with antisocial youth.

Socioeconomic status and the health of youth: a multilevel, multidomain approach to conceptualizing pathways.

PubMed

Schreier, Hannah M C; Chen, Edith

2013-05-01

Previous research has clearly established associations between low socioeconomic status (SES) and poor youth physical health outcomes. This article provides an overview of the main pathways through which low SES environments come to influence youth health. We focus on 2 prevalent chronic health problems in youth today, asthma and obesity. We review and propose a model that encompasses (a) multiple levels of influence, including the neighborhood, family and person level; (b) both social and physical domains in the environment; and finally (c) dynamic relationships between these factors. A synthesis of existing research and our proposed model draw attention to the notion of adverse physical and social exposures in youth's neighborhood environments altering family characteristics and youth psychosocial and behavioral profiles, thereby increasing youth's risk for health problems. We also note the importance of acknowledging reciprocal influences across levels and domains (e.g., between family and child) that create self-perpetuating patterns of influence that further accentuate the impact of these factors on youth health. Finally, we document that factors across levels can interact (e.g., environmental pollution levels with child stress) to create unique, synergistic effects on youth health. Our model stresses the importance of evaluating influences on youth's physical health not in isolation but in the context of the broader social and physical environments in which youth live. Understanding the complex relationships between the factors that link low SES to youth's long-term health trajectories is necessary for the creation and implementation of successful interventions and policies to ultimately reduce health disparities. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Testing Pathways Linking Exposure to Community Violence and Sexual Behaviors Among African American Youth

PubMed Central

Hotton, Anna L.; Neilands, Torsten B.

2014-01-01

Exposure to community violence and HIV sexual risks are two major public health concerns among youth. This study tests various pathways linking exposure to community violence and sexual behaviors among African American adolescents. Using a sample of 563 (61 % females) African American youth attending high school we examined whether problematic psychological symptoms, low school engagement, and/or negative perceptions of peer norms about safer sex functioned as pathways linking exposure to community violence and sexual behaviors. Major findings indicated that, for boys, the relationship between exposure to community violence and sexual début and sexual risk behaviors were linked by aggression. In addition, the relationship between exposure to community violence and sexual risk behaviors were linked by negative perceptions of peer attitudes about safer sex. For girls, the relationship between exposure to community violence and sexual début was linked by aggression and negative perceptions of peer attitudes about safer sex. These findings provide support for pathways linking exposure to community violence to sexual behaviors. PMID:24327295

Long-term consequences of pubertal timing for youth depression: Identifying personal and contextual pathways of risk

PubMed Central

RUDOLPH, KAREN D.; TROOP-GORDON, WENDY; LAMBERT, SHARON F.; NATSUAKI, MISAKI N.

2015-01-01

This research explored sex differences in the pathways linking pubertal timing to depression across 4 years. A sample of 167 youth (M age = 12.41 years, SD = 1.19) and their caregivers completed measures of puberty and semistructured interviews of interpersonal stress and youth depression. Youth reported on psychological (negative self-focus, anxious arousal) and social–behavioral (coping) characteristics; parents reported on youths’ social–behavioral characteristics (withdrawal/social problems) and deviant peer affiliations. Early maturation predicted stable high trajectories of depression in girls; although early maturing boys showed low initial levels of depression, they did not differ from girls by the final wave of the study. Latent growth curve analyses identified several psychological, social–behavioral, and interpersonal pathways accounting for the contribution of pubertal timing to initial and enduring risk for depression in girls as well as emerging risk for depression in boys. These findings provide novel insight into multilevel processes accounting for sex differences in depression across the adolescent transition. PMID:25422971

Interactions of information transfer along separable causal paths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peishi; Kumar, Praveen

2018-04-01

Complex systems arise as a result of interdependences between multiple variables, whose causal interactions can be visualized in a time-series graph. Transfer entropy and information partitioning approaches have been used to characterize such dependences. However, these approaches capture net information transfer occurring through a multitude of pathways involved in the interaction and as a result mask our ability to discern the causal interaction within a subgraph of interest through specific pathways. We build on recent developments of momentary information transfer along causal paths proposed by Runge [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062829 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062829] to develop a framework for quantifying information partitioning along separable causal paths. Momentary information transfer along causal paths captures the amount of information transfer between any two variables lagged at two specific points in time. Our approach expands this concept to characterize the causal interaction in terms of synergistic, unique, and redundant information transfer through separable causal paths. Through a graphical model, we analyze the impact of the separable and nonseparable causal paths and the causality structure embedded in the graph as well as the noise effect on information partitioning by using synthetic data generated from two coupled logistic equation models. Our approach can provide a valuable reference for an autonomous information partitioning along separable causal paths which form a causal subgraph influencing a target.

An integrative systems genetics approach reveals potential causal genes and pathways related to obesity.

PubMed

Kogelman, Lisette J A; Zhernakova, Daria V; Westra, Harm-Jan; Cirera, Susanna; Fredholm, Merete; Franke, Lude; Kadarmideen, Haja N

2015-10-20

Obesity is a multi-factorial health problem in which genetic factors play an important role. Limited results have been obtained in single-gene studies using either genomic or transcriptomic data. RNA sequencing technology has shown its potential in gaining accurate knowledge about the transcriptome, and may reveal novel genes affecting complex diseases. Integration of genomic and transcriptomic variation (expression quantitative trait loci [eQTL] mapping) has identified causal variants that affect complex diseases. We integrated transcriptomic data from adipose tissue and genomic data from a porcine model to investigate the mechanisms involved in obesity using a systems genetics approach. Using a selective gene expression profiling approach, we selected 36 animals based on a previously created genomic Obesity Index for RNA sequencing of subcutaneous adipose tissue. Differential expression analysis was performed using the Obesity Index as a continuous variable in a linear model. eQTL mapping was then performed to integrate 60 K porcine SNP chip data with the RNA sequencing data. Results were restricted based on genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms, detected differentially expressed genes, and previously detected co-expressed gene modules. Further data integration was performed by detecting co-expression patterns among eQTLs and integration with protein data. Differential expression analysis of RNA sequencing data revealed 458 differentially expressed genes. The eQTL mapping resulted in 987 cis-eQTLs and 73 trans-eQTLs (false discovery rate < 0.05), of which the cis-eQTLs were associated with metabolic pathways. We reduced the eQTL search space by focusing on differentially expressed and co-expressed genes and disease-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms to detect obesity-related genes and pathways. Building a co-expression network using eQTLs resulted in the detection of a module strongly associated with lipid pathways. Furthermore, we

Causal pathways linking environmental change with health behaviour change: Natural experimental study of new transport infrastructure and cycling to work.

PubMed

Prins, R G; Panter, J; Heinen, E; Griffin, S J; Ogilvie, D B

2016-06-01

Mechanisms linking changes to the environment with changes in physical activity are poorly understood. Insights into mechanisms of interventions can help strengthen causal attribution and improve understanding of divergent response patterns. We examined the causal pathways linking exposure to new transport infrastructure with changes in cycling to work. We used baseline (2009) and follow-up (2012) data (N=469) from the Commuting and Health in Cambridge natural experimental study (Cambridge, UK). Exposure to new infrastructure in the form of the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway was defined using residential proximity. Mediators studied were changes in perceptions of the route to work, theory of planned behaviour constructs and self-reported use of the new infrastructure. Outcomes were modelled as an increase, decrease or no change in weekly cycle commuting time. We used regression analyses to identify combinations of mediators forming potential pathways between exposure and outcome. We then tested these pathways in a path model and stratified analyses by baseline level of active commuting. We identified changes in perceptions of the route to work, and use of the cycle path, as potential mediators. Of these potential mediators, only use of the path significantly explained (85%) the effect of the infrastructure in increasing cycling. Path use also explained a decrease in cycling among more active commuters. The findings strengthen the causal argument that changing the environment led to changes in health-related behaviour via use of the new infrastructure, but also show how some commuters may have spent less time cycling as a result. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Youth at ultra high risk for psychosis: using the Revised Network Episode Model to examine pathways to mental health care.

PubMed

Boydell, Katherine M; Volpe, Tiziana; Gladstone, Brenda M; Stasiulis, Elaine; Addington, Jean

2013-05-01

This paper aims to identify the ways in which youth at ultra high risk for psychosis access mental health services and the factors that advance or delay help seeking, using the Revised Network Episode Model (REV NEM) of mental health care. A case study approach documents help-seeking pathways, encompassing two qualitative interviews with 10 young people and 29 significant others. Theoretical propositions derived from the REV NEM are explored, consisting of the content, structure and function of the: (i) family; (ii) community and school; and (iii) treatment system. Although the aspects of the REV NEM are supported and shape pathways to care, we consider rethinking the model for help seeking with youth at ultra high risk for psychosis. The pathway concept is important to our understanding of how services and supports are received and experienced over time. Understanding this process and the strategies that support positive early intervention on the part of youth and significant others is critical. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Pathways to Death Row for America's Disabled Youth: Three Case Studies Driving Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schroeder, Julie; Guin, Cecile C.; Chaisson, Rebecca; Houchins, David

2004-01-01

This article uses the case study method to examine the lives of three youths with disabilities living in the southern part of the United States who have followed a pathway to death row. An empirically established developmental and theoretical framework is used to examine issues related to the influence of disabilities and race on children and…

The Role of Institutional Placement, Family Conflict, and Homosexuality in Homelessness Pathways Among Latino LGBT Youth in New York City

PubMed Central

Castellanos, H. Daniel

2016-01-01

Despite the overrepresentation of LGBT youth among the homeless, the processes leading to their homelessness are understudied. This ethnographic study sought to elucidate the role of sexual orientation in the pathway to housing instability among young gay men. Fieldwork included eighteen months of participant observations in public spaces and at a homeless LGBT youth organization in New York City, as well as formal semi-structured interviews with 14 Latino young men and 5 staff. Three distinct pathways emerged. Some youth became homeless after placement in state systems of care disrupted their social support systems while others after extreme family conflict over sexual orientation. Nonetheless, most youths became homeless as a result of long-term processes of family disintegration in which normative adolescent development and disclosure of homosexuality exacerbated pre-existing conflict. These findings suggest the need to examine the accumulation of risks before disclosure exacerbates family conflict and increases their risk of homelessness. PMID:26503713

The Role of Institutional Placement, Family Conflict, and Homosexuality in Homelessness Pathways Among Latino LGBT Youth in New York City.

PubMed

Castellanos, H Daniel

2016-01-01

Despite the overrepresentation of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) youth among the homeless, the processes leading to their homelessness are understudied. This ethnographic study sought to elucidate the role of sexual orientation in the pathway to housing instability among young gay men. Fieldwork included 18 months of participant observations in public spaces and at a homeless LGBT youth organization in New York City, as well as formal semistructured interviews with 14 Latino young men and five staff. Three distinct pathways emerged. Some youth became homeless after placement in state systems of care disrupted their social support systems, while others became homeless after extreme family conflict over sexual orientation. Nonetheless, most youths became homeless as a result of long-term processes of family disintegration in which normative adolescent development and disclosure of homosexuality exacerbated preexisting conflict. These findings suggest the need to examine the accumulation of risks before disclosure exacerbates family conflict and increases their risk of homelessness.

Service Accessibility for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Questioning Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Acevedo-Polakovich, Ignacio David; Bell, Bailey; Gamache, Peter; Christian, Allison S.

2013-01-01

Although Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer and/or Questioning (LGBTQ) youth experience alarming rates of behavioral and social problems, service use among these youth is disproportionately low. It is likely that decreased service accessibility plays a causal role in service underutilization among LGBTQ youth. To expand the existing…

Pathways from emotional adjustment to glycemic control in youths with diabetes in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Stewart, S M; Lee, P W; Low, L C; Cheng, A; Yeung, W; Huen, K F; O'Donnell, D

2000-09-01

To examine factors that influence emotional adjustment, adherence to diabetic care, and glycemic control in Hong Kong youths with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM). Seventy youths, their mothers, and matched controls provided information on health beliefs, authoritarian parenting style, parent-child conflict, emotional adjustment, and adherence to medical regimen. Glycosylated hemoglobin levels were obtained to measure glycemic control. Predictors explained 34% of the variance in emotional adjustment and 39% of the variance in glycemic control. The data supported a pathway from emotional adjustment to self-efficacy to adherence behaviors to glycemic control. In contrast to Western culture and consistent with prediction, parenting style did not associate with negative outcomes, and even relatively low levels of parent-child conflict correlated negatively with emotional adjustment in this culture. Management of conflict and self-efficacy enhancing interactions are suggested interventions to enhance adherence to diabetic care in Hong Kong youths with IDDM.

Multiple Causal Links Between Magnocellular-Dorsal Pathway Deficit and Developmental Dyslexia.

PubMed

Gori, Simone; Seitz, Aaron R; Ronconi, Luca; Franceschini, Sandro; Facoetti, Andrea

2016-10-17

Although impaired auditory-phonological processing is the most popular explanation of developmental dyslexia (DD), the literature shows that the combination of several causes rather than a single factor contributes to DD. Functioning of the visual magnocellular-dorsal (MD) pathway, which plays a key role in motion perception, is a much debated, but heavily suspected factor contributing to DD. Here, we employ a comprehensive approach that incorporates all the accepted methods required to test the relationship between the MD pathway dysfunction and DD. The results of 4 experiments show that (1) Motion perception is impaired in children with dyslexia in comparison both with age-match and with reading-level controls; (2) pre-reading visual motion perception-independently from auditory-phonological skill-predicts future reading development, and (3) targeted MD trainings-not involving any auditory-phonological stimulation-leads to improved reading skill in children and adults with DD. Our findings demonstrate, for the first time, a causal relationship between MD deficits and DD, virtually closing a 30-year long debate. Since MD dysfunction can be diagnosed much earlier than reading and language disorders, our findings pave the way for low resource-intensive, early prevention programs that could drastically reduce the incidence of DD. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Aggression and violence and the achievement gap among urban minority youth.

PubMed

Basch, Charles E

2011-10-01

To outline the prevalence and disparities of aggression and violence among school-aged urban minority youth, causal pathways through which aggression and violence adversely affects academic achievement, and proven or promising approaches for schools to address these problems. Literature review. Recent national data indicate that among students aged 12-18, approximately 628,200 violent crimes and 868,100 thefts occurred. Physical fighting was more commonly reported by Blacks and Hispanics (44.7% and 40.4%, respectively) than Whites (31.7%). In-school threats and injuries were nearly twice as prevalent in cities as in suburbs and towns or rural areas (10% vs 6% and 5%, respectively). Associations between exposure to and exhibition of aggression and violence and unfavorable educational outcomes are well documented. Causal pathways through which aggression and violence impede learning include cognition, school connectedness, and absenteeism. Disruptive classroom behavior is a well-recognized and significant impediment to teaching and learning. Compelling research has shown that various school-based programs can significantly reduce the nature and extent of aggressive and violent behaviors. Violence and aggressive behavior are highly and disproportionately prevalent among school-aged urban minority youth, have a negative impact on academic achievement by adversely affecting cognition, school connectedness, and absenteeism, and effective practices are available for schools to address this problem. Once the domain of criminal justice, aggression and violence are now recognized as an appropriate and important focus of the education and public health systems. Implementing evidence-based school policies and programs to reduce aggression and violence must be a high priority to help close the achievement gap. © 2011, American School Health Association.

Youth Who Sexual Offended

PubMed Central

Koh, Li Lian; Zeng, Gerald; Teoh, Jennifer

2015-01-01

There has been an increased focus on understanding youth sexual offending in recent years, but there has been limited empirical research on the causes, pathways, and treatment of youth who have sexually offended—especially within a non-Western context. The Good Lives and Self-Regulation Models have often been used to understand and rehabilitate adult sexual offenders, but (unfortunately) there is scant research on youth who sexually offended using these models. The present study aims to describe the different primary goods that are associated with youth sexual offending behaviors in an Asian context. In addition, the study sought to explore whether the age of victim (child vs. nonchild) and nature of sexual offense (penetrative vs. nonpenetrative) influenced the youth’s engagement in offense pathways. The results suggest that pleasure, relatedness, and inner peace were the primary human goods that were most sought after by a sample of 168 youth who sexually offended in Singapore. In addition, offender classification (in relation to the age of victim and nature of sexual offense) influenced the pathways to sexual offending. Therefore, these findings have important clinical implications for assessment, management, and intervention planning for youth who sexually offended. PMID:24048701

Ends, Principles, and Causal Explanation in Educational Justice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dum, Jenn

2017-01-01

Many principles characterize educational justice in terms of the relationship between educational inputs, outputs and distributive standards. Such principles depend upon the "causal pathway view" of education. It is implicit in this view that the causally effective aspects of education can be understood as separate from the normative…

­Understanding Information Flow Interaction along Separable Causal Paths in Environmental Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Kumar, P.

2017-12-01

Multivariate environmental signals reflect the outcome of complex inter-dependencies, such as those in ecohydrologic systems. Transfer entropy and information partitioning approaches have been used to characterize such dependencies. However, these approaches capture net information flow occurring through a multitude of pathways involved in the interaction and as a result mask our ability to discern the causal interaction within an interested subsystem through specific pathways. We build on recent developments of momentary information transfer along causal paths proposed by Runge [2015] to develop a framework for quantifying information decomposition along separable causal paths. Momentary information transfer along causal paths captures the amount of information flow between any two variables lagged at two specific points in time. Our approach expands this concept to characterize the causal interaction in terms of synergistic, unique and redundant information flow through separable causal paths. Multivariate analysis using this novel approach reveals precise understanding of causality and feedback. We illustrate our approach with synthetic and observed time series data. We believe the proposed framework helps better delineate the internal structure of complex systems in geoscience where huge amounts of observational datasets exist, and it will also help the modeling community by providing a new way to look at the complexity of real and modeled systems. Runge, Jakob. "Quantifying information transfer and mediation along causal pathways in complex systems." Physical Review E 92.6 (2015): 062829.

Up or Down and Out? A Systemic Analysis of Young People's Educational Pathways in the Youth Justice System in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lanskey, Caroline

2015-01-01

Many young people in the youth justice system in England and Wales are educationally marginalised and systemic barriers to their engagement with education persist. This article presents an analytical framework for understanding how education and youth justice practices shape young people's educational pathways during their time in the youth…

Socioeconomic Status and the Health of Youth: A Multi-level, Multi-domain Approach to Conceptualizing Pathways

PubMed Central

Schreier, Hannah M. C.; Chen, Edith

2012-01-01

Previous research has clearly established associations between low socioeconomic status (SES) and poor youth physical health outcomes. This article provides an overview of the main pathways through which low SES environments come to influence youth health. We focus on two of the most prevalent chronic health problems in youth today, asthma and obesity. We review and propose a model that encompasses (1) multiple levels of influence, including the neighborhood, family and person level, (2) both social and physical domains in the environment, and finally (3) dynamic relationships between these factors. A synthesis of existing research and our proposed model draw attention to the notion of adverse physical and social exposures in youth’s neighborhood environments altering family characteristics and youth psychosocial and behavioral profiles, thereby increasing youth’s risk for health problems. We also note the importance of acknowledging reciprocal influences across levels and domains (e.g., between family and child) that create self-perpetuating patterns of influence that further accentuate the impact of these factors on youth health. Finally, we document that factors across levels can interact (e.g., environmental pollution levels with child stress) to create unique, synergistic effects on youth health. Our model stresses the importance of evaluating influences on youth’s physical health not in isolation but in the context of the broader social and physical environments in which youth live. Understanding the complex relationships between the factors that link low SES to youth’s long-term health trajectories is necessary for the creation and implementation of successful interventions and policies to ultimately reduce health disparities. PMID:22845752

Causal and causally separable processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

2016-09-01

The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

What is learned from longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking? A critical assessment.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2010-03-01

This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation.

What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment

PubMed Central

Nelson, Jon P

2010-01-01

This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation. PMID:20617009

Using genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research.

PubMed

Pingault, Jean-Baptiste; O'Reilly, Paul F; Schoeler, Tabea; Ploubidis, George B; Rijsdijk, Frühling; Dudbridge, Frank

2018-06-05

Causal inference is essential across the biomedical, behavioural and social sciences.By progressing from confounded statistical associations to evidence of causal relationships, causal inference can reveal complex pathways underlying traits and diseases and help to prioritize targets for intervention. Recent progress in genetic epidemiology - including statistical innovation, massive genotyped data sets and novel computational tools for deep data mining - has fostered the intense development of methods exploiting genetic data and relatedness to strengthen causal inference in observational research. In this Review, we describe how such genetically informed methods differ in their rationale, applicability and inherent limitations and outline how they should be integrated in the future to offer a rich causal inference toolbox.

Discovering causal signaling pathways through gene-expression patterns

PubMed Central

Parikh, Jignesh R.; Klinger, Bertram; Xia, Yu; Marto, Jarrod A.; Blüthgen, Nils

2010-01-01

High-throughput gene-expression studies result in lists of differentially expressed genes. Most current meta-analyses of these gene lists include searching for significant membership of the translated proteins in various signaling pathways. However, such membership enrichment algorithms do not provide insight into which pathways caused the genes to be differentially expressed in the first place. Here, we present an intuitive approach for discovering upstream signaling pathways responsible for regulating these differentially expressed genes. We identify consistently regulated signature genes specific for signal transduction pathways from a panel of single-pathway perturbation experiments. An algorithm that detects overrepresentation of these signature genes in a gene group of interest is used to infer the signaling pathway responsible for regulation. We expose our novel resource and algorithm through a web server called SPEED: Signaling Pathway Enrichment using Experimental Data sets. SPEED can be freely accessed at http://speed.sys-bio.net/. PMID:20494976

Pathways to Preventing Substance Use Among Youth in Foster Care.

PubMed

Kim, Hyoun K; Buchanan, Rohanna; Price, Joseph M

2017-07-01

Substance use problems are highly prevalent among youth in foster care. Such problems in adolescence have long-lasting implications for subsequent adjustment throughout adulthood and even across generations. Although several programs have demonstrated positive results in reducing substance use in at-risk youth, few studies have systemically examined how such programs work for foster youth and whether they are effective for both genders. This study examined the efficacy of KEEP SAFE, a family-based and skill-focused program designed to prevent substance use and other related health risking behaviors among youth in foster care. We hypothesized that improving the caregiver-youth relationship would lead to later reductions in youths' involvement with deviant peers, which subsequently would lead to less substance use, and that this mechanism would work comparably for both genders. A sample of 259 youth (154 girls, ages 11-17 years) in foster care and their caregivers participated in a randomized controlled trial and was followed for 18 months post-baseline. Results indicated that the intervention significantly reduced substance use in foster youth at 18 months post-baseline and that the intervention influenced substance use through two processes: youths' improved quality of relationships with caregivers at 6 months post-baseline and fewer associations with deviant peers at 12 months post-baseline. This suggests that these two processes may be fruitful immediate targets in substance use prevention programs for foster youth. We also found little gender differences in direct and mediating effects of the intervention, suggesting KEEP SAFE may be effective for both genders in foster care.

An Evaluation Study of Youth Participation in Youth Work: A Case Study in Southern Italy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morciano, Daniele; Scardigno, Anna Fausta; Manuti, Amelia; Pastore, Serafina

2014-01-01

In this paper an evaluation study of a public programme financing a regional network of 157 youth centres in the South of Italy is presented. A theory-based evaluation model was adopted to explore the causal links between different types of participation experience. Evaluation questions focused on three main issues are: the perception of…

Family Violence Pathways and Externalizing Behavior in Youth.

PubMed

Bozzay, Melanie L; Joy, Lendi N; Verona, Edelyn

2017-08-01

While studies suggest that youth who experience violence in the home are more likely to engage in externalizing behaviors (e.g., aggression, substance use, rule breaking), research is needed to understand factors that may explain how family violence is linked to externalizing, and whether there may be gender-specific trajectories to this outcome. The present study used a cross-sectional design and multigroup, path analytic modeling to test the degree to which personality traits (negative emotionality, constraint) in boys and girls (Model 1), as well as status offending primarily in girls (Model 2), may help explain relationships between exposure to familial adversity (witnessing family violence and child abuse) and adolescent externalizing behaviors in a mixed-gender, community sample with both caregiver and youth reports ( N = 237, 57% female, 10-17 years old). Results indicated that personality traits fully explained the relationship between witnessing family violence and externalizing and partially explained the relationship between child abuse and externalizing among youth. Despite theory suggesting a female-specific trajectory involving status offenses, both models were similarly relevant for boys and girls. These findings have implications for understanding processes by which adverse family circumstances may relate to externalizing behavior in youth. Preliminary suggestions are provided for future longitudinal research, policy changes, and clinical techniques that may be essential in preventing the progression to long-term adverse outcomes among youth.

Ethnic identity and mental health in American Indian youth: examining mediation pathways through self-esteem, and future optimism.

PubMed

Smokowski, Paul R; Evans, Caroline B R; Cotter, Katie L; Webber, Kristina C

2014-03-01

Mental health functioning in American Indian youth is an understudied topic. Given the increased rates of depression and anxiety in this population, further research is needed. Using multiple group structural equation modeling, the current study illuminates the effect of ethnic identity on anxiety symptoms, depressive symptoms, and externalizing behavior in a group of Lumbee adolescents and a group of Caucasian, African American, and Latino/Hispanic adolescents. This study examined two possible pathways (i.e., future optimism and self-esteem) through which ethnic identity is associated with adolescent mental health. The sample (N = 4,714) is 28.53% American Indian (Lumbee) and 51.38% female. The study findings indicate that self-esteem significantly mediated the relationships between ethnic identity and anxiety symptoms, depressive symptoms, and externalizing behavior for all racial/ethnic groups (i.e., the total sample). Future optimism significantly mediated the relationship between ethnic identity and externalizing behavior for all racial/ethnic groups and was a significant mediator between ethnic identity and depressive symptoms for American Indian youth only. Fostering ethnic identity in all youth serves to enhance mental health functioning, but is especially important for American Indian youth due to the collective nature of their culture.

Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D

2018-01-01

This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Research on Youth Employment and Employability Development. Youth Employment Policies and Programs for the 1890s. Background Analysis for the Department of Labor Employment and Training Components of the Youth Act of 1980. Youth Knowledge Development Report 2.12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taggart, Robert

Prepared as a basic background document for an interagency task force on youth employment, this report analyzes youth employment policies and programs for the 1980s. The main body of the report consists of three sections. Section 1, entitled "Policy Perspectives on the Youth Employment Problem," contains a discussion of pathways to…

National Institutes of Health Pathways to Prevention Workshop: Advancing Research to Prevent Youth Suicide.

PubMed

Little, Todd D; Roche, Kathleen M; Chow, Sy-Miin; Schenck, Anna P; Byam, Leslie-Ann

2016-12-06

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Pathways to Prevention Workshop "Advancing Research to Prevent Youth Suicide" was cosponsored by the NIH Office of Disease Prevention, National Institute of Mental Health, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health. A multidisciplinary working group developed the agenda, and an evidence-based practice center prepared an evidence report that addressed data systems relevant to suicide prevention efforts through a contract with the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. During the workshop, experts discussed the evidence and participants commented during open forums. After considering the data from the evidence report, expert presentations, and public comments, an independent panel prepared a draft report that was posted on the NIH Office of Disease Prevention Web site for 5 weeks for public comment. This abridged version of the final report provides a road map for optimizing youth suicide prevention efforts by highlighting strategies for guiding the next decade of research in this area. These strategies include recommendations for improving data systems, enhancing data collection and analysis methods, and strengthening the research and practice community.

Prenatal nutrition, epigenetics and schizophrenia risk: can we test causal effects?

PubMed

Kirkbride, James B; Susser, Ezra; Kundakovic, Marija; Kresovich, Jacob K; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

2012-06-01

We posit that maternal prenatal nutrition can influence offspring schizophrenia risk via epigenetic effects. In this article, we consider evidence that prenatal nutrition is linked to epigenetic outcomes in offspring and schizophrenia in offspring, and that schizophrenia is associated with epigenetic changes. We focus upon one-carbon metabolism as a mediator of the pathway between perturbed prenatal nutrition and the subsequent risk of schizophrenia. Although post-mortem human studies demonstrate DNA methylation changes in brains of people with schizophrenia, such studies cannot establish causality. We suggest a testable hypothesis that utilizes a novel two-step Mendelian randomization approach, to test the component parts of the proposed causal pathway leading from prenatal nutritional exposure to schizophrenia. Applied here to a specific example, such an approach is applicable for wider use to strengthen causal inference of the mediating role of epigenetic factors linking exposures to health outcomes in population-based studies.

On the relationships between commercial sexual exploitation/prostitution, substance dependency, and delinquency in youthful offenders.

PubMed

Reid, Joan A; Piquero, Alex R

2014-01-01

Researchers have consistently linked commercial sexual exploitation (CSE) of youth and involvement in prostitution with substance dependency and delinquency. Yet, important questions remain regarding the directionality and mechanisms driving this association. Utilizing a sample of 114 CSE/prostituted youth participating in the Pathways to Desistance study-a longitudinal investigation of the transition from adolescence to adulthood among serious adolescent offenders-the current study examined key criminal career parameters of CSE/prostitution including age of onset and rate of recurrence. Additionally, structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to explore concurrent associations and causal links between CSE/prostitution and drug involvement. Findings show a general sequential pattern of the ages of onset with substance use and selling drugs occurring prior to CSE/prostitution, evidence that a small group with chronic CSE/prostitution account for the majority of CSE/prostitution occurrences, and high rates of repeated CSE/prostitution. SEM results suggest CSE/prostituted youth persist in drug involvement from year to year but infrequently experience perpetuation of CSE/prostitution from year to year. Concurrent associations between CSE/prostitution and drug involvement were found across the length of the study. Additionally, drug involvement at one year was linked to CSE/prostitution during the subsequent year during early years of the study. © The Author(s) 2014.

Psychological Pathways from Financial Conditions to Outcomes for Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Destin, Mesmin P.

2010-01-01

Low-income and minority youth are dramatically less likely to reach a college education than their higher income and White counterparts. The dissertation evaluates how socioeconomic circumstances and family assets come to influence academic motivation and lifetime outcomes for youth. In chapter II, structural equation models, constructed from…

Stable Causal Relationships Are Better Causal Relationships.

PubMed

Vasilyeva, Nadya; Blanchard, Thomas; Lombrozo, Tania

2018-05-01

We report three experiments investigating whether people's judgments about causal relationships are sensitive to the robustness or stability of such relationships across a range of background circumstances. In Experiment 1, we demonstrate that people are more willing to endorse causal and explanatory claims based on stable (as opposed to unstable) relationships, even when the overall causal strength of the relationship is held constant. In Experiment 2, we show that this effect is not driven by a causal generalization's actual scope of application. In Experiment 3, we offer evidence that stable causal relationships may be seen as better guides to action. Collectively, these experiments document a previously underappreciated factor that shapes people's causal reasoning: the stability of the causal relationship. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Recognising discourse causality triggers in the biomedical domain.

PubMed

Mihăilă, Claudiu; Ananiadou, Sophia

2013-12-01

Current domain-specific information extraction systems represent an important resource for biomedical researchers, who need to process vast amounts of knowledge in a short time. Automatic discourse causality recognition can further reduce their workload by suggesting possible causal connections and aiding in the curation of pathway models. We describe here an approach to the automatic identification of discourse causality triggers in the biomedical domain using machine learning. We create several baselines and experiment with and compare various parameter settings for three algorithms, i.e. Conditional Random Fields (CRF), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF). We also evaluate the impact of lexical, syntactic, and semantic features on each of the algorithms, showing that semantics improves the performance in all cases. We test our comprehensive feature set on two corpora containing gold standard annotations of causal relations, and demonstrate the need for more gold standard data. The best performance of 79.35% F-score is achieved by CRFs when using all three feature types.

Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Samuel G. B.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

2015-01-01

Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge--an interconnected causal "network," where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms--causal "islands"--such that events in different…

Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment.

PubMed

Johnson, Samuel G B; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

2015-09-01

Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge—an interconnected causal network, where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms—causal islands—such that events in different mechanisms are not thought to be related even when they belong to the same causal chain. To distinguish these possibilities, we tested whether people make transitive judgments about causal chains by inferring, given A causes B and B causes C, that A causes C. Specifically, causal chains schematized as one chunk or mechanism in semantic memory (e.g., exercising, becoming thirsty, drinking water) led to transitive causal judgments. On the other hand, chains schematized as multiple chunks (e.g., having sex, becoming pregnant, becoming nauseous) led to intransitive judgments despite strong intermediate links ((Experiments 1-3). Normative accounts of causal intransitivity could not explain these intransitive judgments (Experiments 4 and 5). Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Youth at Risk: A Resource for Counselors, Teachers and Parents. Part 2. Examining the Causes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmo, Artis J.; And Others

This document consists of Part 2 of a book of readings on at-risk youth designed to provide information and strategies for counselors, teachers, parents, administrators, social workers, and others who work with youth at risk. Part 2 contains five readings on causal factors related to at-risk behaviors. "The Harmful Effects of Dysfunctional Family…

A Causal Model of Career Development and Quality of Life of College Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chun, Jina

2017-01-01

Researchers have assumed that social cognitive factors play significant roles in the career development of transition youth and young adults with disabilities and those without disabilities. However, research on the influence of the career decision-making process as a primary causal agent in one's psychosocial outcomes such as perceived level of…

Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payo, Andres; Hall, Jim W.; French, Jon; Sutherland, James; van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; Reeve, Dominic E.

2016-03-01

As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion-accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a

A pedagogical walkthrough of computational modeling and simulation of Wnt signaling pathway using static causal models in MATLAB.

PubMed

Sinha, Shriprakash

2016-12-01

Simulation study in systems biology involving computational experiments dealing with Wnt signaling pathways abound in literature but often lack a pedagogical perspective that might ease the understanding of beginner students and researchers in transition, who intend to work on the modeling of the pathway. This paucity might happen due to restrictive business policies which enforce an unwanted embargo on the sharing of important scientific knowledge. A tutorial introduction to computational modeling of Wnt signaling pathway in a human colorectal cancer dataset using static Bayesian network models is provided. The walkthrough might aid biologists/informaticians in understanding the design of computational experiments that is interleaved with exposition of the Matlab code and causal models from Bayesian network toolbox. The manuscript elucidates the coding contents of the advance article by Sinha (Integr. Biol. 6:1034-1048, 2014) and takes the reader in a step-by-step process of how (a) the collection and the transformation of the available biological information from literature is done, (b) the integration of the heterogeneous data and prior biological knowledge in the network is achieved, (c) the simulation study is designed, (d) the hypothesis regarding a biological phenomena is transformed into computational framework, and (e) results and inferences drawn using d -connectivity/separability are reported. The manuscript finally ends with a programming assignment to help the readers get hands-on experience of a perturbation project. Description of Matlab files is made available under GNU GPL v3 license at the Google code project on https://code.google.com/p/static-bn-for-wnt-signaling-pathway and https: //sites.google.com/site/shriprakashsinha/shriprakashsinha/projects/static-bn-for-wnt-signaling-pathway. Latest updates can be found in the latter website.

The Mental Health Outcomes of Drought: A Systematic Review and Causal Process Diagram

PubMed Central

Vins, Holly; Bell, Jesse; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2015-01-01

Little is understood about the long term, indirect health consequences of drought (a period of abnormally dry weather). In particular, the implications of drought for mental health via pathways such as loss of livelihood, diminished social support, and rupture of place bonds have not been extensively studied, leaving a knowledge gap for practitioners and researchers alike. A systematic review of literature was performed to examine the mental health effects of drought. The systematic review results were synthesized to create a causal process diagram that illustrates the pathways linking drought effects to mental health outcomes. Eighty-two articles using a variety of methods in different contexts were gathered from the systematic review. The pathways in the causal process diagram with greatest support in the literature are those focusing on the economic and migratory effects of drought. The diagram highlights the complexity of the relationships between drought and mental health, including the multiple ways that factors can interact and lead to various outcomes. The systematic review and resulting causal process diagram can be used in both practice and theory, including prevention planning, public health programming, vulnerability and risk assessment, and research question guidance. The use of a causal process diagram provides a much needed avenue for integrating the findings of diverse research to further the understanding of the mental health implications of drought. PMID:26506367

Causal imprinting in causal structure learning.

PubMed

Taylor, Eric G; Ahn, Woo-Kyoung

2012-11-01

Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures "causal imprinting." Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causal Imprinting in Causal Structure Learning

PubMed Central

Taylor, Eric G.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

2012-01-01

Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures “causal imprinting.” Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. PMID:22859019

Near miss and minor occupational injury: Does it share a common causal pathway with major injury?

PubMed

Alamgir, Hasanat; Yu, Shicheng; Gorman, Erin; Ngan, Karen; Guzman, Jaime

2009-01-01

An essential assumption of injury prevention programs is the common cause hypothesis that the causal pathways of near misses and minor injuries are similar to those of major injuries. The rates of near miss, minor injury and major injury of all reported incidents and musculoskeletal incidents (MSIs) were calculated for three health regions using information from a surveillance database and productive hours from payroll data. The relative distribution of individual causes and activities involved in near miss, minor injury and major injury were then compared. For all reported incidents, there were significant differences in the relative distribution of causes for near miss, minor, and major injury. However, the relative distribution of causes and activities involved in minor and major MSIs were similar. The top causes and activities involved were the same across near miss, minor, and major injury. Finding from this study support the use of near miss and minor injury data as potential outcome measures for injury prevention programs. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Participatory Evaluation with Youth Leads to Community Action Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ashton, Carolyn; Arnold, Mary E.; Wells, Elissa E.

2010-01-01

4-H has long emphasized the importance of civic engagement and community service for positive youth development. One pathway to this ideal is youth action research and evaluation. This article demonstrates how participatory youth research and evaluation can lead to the successful implementation of community action projects. It describes the…

Obesity and infection: reciprocal causality.

PubMed

Hainer, V; Zamrazilová, H; Kunešová, M; Bendlová, B; Aldhoon-Hainerová, I

2015-01-01

Associations between different infectious agents and obesity have been reported in humans for over thirty years. In many cases, as in nosocomial infections, this relationship reflects the greater susceptibility of obese individuals to infection due to impaired immunity. In such cases, the infection is not related to obesity as a causal factor but represents a complication of obesity. In contrast, several infections have been suggested as potential causal factors in human obesity. However, evidence of a causal linkage to human obesity has only been provided for adenovirus 36 (Adv36). This virus activates lipogenic and proinflammatory pathways in adipose tissue, improves insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and hepatic steatosis. The E4orf1 gene of Adv36 exerts insulin senzitizing effects, but is devoid of its pro-inflammatory modalities. The development of a vaccine to prevent Adv36-induced obesity or the use of E4orf1 as a ligand for novel antidiabetic drugs could open new horizons in the prophylaxis and treatment of obesity and diabetes. More experimental and clinical studies are needed to elucidate the mutual relations between infection and obesity, identify additional infectious agents causing human obesity, as well as define the conditions that predispose obese individuals to specific infections.

Assessing natural direct and indirect effects through multiple pathways.

PubMed

Lange, Theis; Rasmussen, Mette; Thygesen, Lau Caspar

2014-02-15

Within the fields of epidemiology, interventions research and social sciences researchers are often faced with the challenge of decomposing the effect of an exposure into different causal pathways working through defined mediator variables. The goal of such analyses is often to understand the mechanisms of the system or to suggest possible interventions. The case of a single mediator, thus implying only 2 causal pathways (direct and indirect) from exposure to outcome, has been extensively studied. By using the framework of counterfactual variables, researchers have established theoretical properties and developed powerful tools. However, in practical problems, it is not uncommon to have several distinct causal pathways from exposure to outcome operating through different mediators. In this article, we suggest a widely applicable approach to quantifying and ranking different causal pathways. The approach is an extension of the natural effect models proposed by Lange et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2012;176(3):190-195). By allowing the analysis of distinct multiple pathways, the suggested approach adds to the capabilities of modern mediation techniques. Furthermore, the approach can be implemented using standard software, and we have included with this article implementation examples using R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and Stata software (StataCorp LP, College Station, Texas).

Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

PubMed

Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P; Ellison, Christopher J

2010-09-01

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding--a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

Intimate Relationships and Depression: Is There a Causal Connection?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, David D.; And Others

1994-01-01

Estimated causal pathways that link depression and dissatisfaction in intimate relationships in 115 depressed patients during first 12 weeks of treatment. Depression severity, as measured by Beck Depression Inventory, was negatively correlated with relationship satisfaction at intake and at 12 weeks. Structural equation modeling was not consistent…

Epidemiology of Youth Suicide and Suicidal Behavior

PubMed Central

Cash, Scottye J.; Bridge, Jeffrey A.

2010-01-01

Purpose of Review Suicide is the third leading cause of death among young people in the U.S. and represents a significant public health problem worldwide. This review focuses on recent developments in our understanding of the epidemiology and risk factors for adolescent suicide and suicidal behavior. Recent Findings The suicide rate among children and adolescents in the U.S. has increased dramatically in recent years and has been accompanied by substantial changes in the leading methods of youth suicide, especially among young girls. Much work is currently underway to elucidate the relationships between psychopathology, substance use, child abuse, bullying, internet use, and youth suicidal behavior. Recent evidence also suggests sex-specific and moderating roles of gender in influencing risk for suicide and suicidal behavior. Summary Empirical research into the causal mechanisms underlying youth suicide and suicidal behavior is needed to inform early identification and prevention efforts. PMID:19644372

Causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearl, Judea

2000-03-01

Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

Childhood trauma and health outcomes in HIV-infected patients: An exploration of causal pathways

PubMed Central

Pence, Brian Wells; Mugavero, Michael J.; Carter, Tandrea J.; Leserman, Jane; Thielman, Nathan M.; Raper, James L.; Proeschold-Bell, Rae Jean; Reif, Susan; Whetten, Kathryn

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE Traumatic life histories are highly prevalent in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and predict sexual risk behaviors, medication adherence, and all-cause mortality. Yet the causal pathways explaining these relationships remain poorly understood. We sought to quantify the association of trauma with negative behavioral and health outcomes and to assess whether those associations were explained by mediation through psychosocial characteristics. METHODS In 611 outpatient PLWHA, we tested whether trauma's influence on later health and behaviors was mediated by coping styles, self efficacy, social support, trust in the medical system, recent stressful life events, mental health, and substance abuse. RESULTS In models adjusting only for sociodemographic and transmission category confounders (estimating total effects), past trauma exposure was associated with 7 behavioral and health outcomes including increased odds or hazard of recent unprotected sex (OR=1.17 per each additional type of trauma, 95% CI=1.07–1.29), medication nonadherence (OR=1.13, 1.02–1.25), hospitalizations (HR=1.12, 1.04–1.22), and HIV disease progression (HR=1.10, 0.98–1.23). When all hypothesized mediators were included, the associations of trauma with health care utilization outcomes were reduced by about 50%, suggesting partial mediation (e.g., OR for hospitalization changed from 1.12 to 1.07) whereas point estimates for behavioral and incident health outcomes remained largely unchanged, suggesting no mediation (e.g., OR for unprotected sex changed from 1.17 to 1.18). Trauma remained associated with most outcomes even after adjusting for all hypothesized psychosocial mediators. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that past trauma influences adult health and behaviors through pathways other than the psychosocial mediators considered in this model. PMID:22107822

Understanding causal pathways within health systems policy evaluation through mediation analysis: an application to payment for performance (P4P) in Tanzania.

PubMed

Anselmi, Laura; Binyaruka, Peter; Borghi, Josephine

2017-02-02

The evaluation of payment for performance (P4P) programmes has focused mainly on understanding contributions to health service coverage, without unpacking causal mechanisms. The overall aim of the paper is to test the causal pathways through which P4P schemes may (or may not) influence maternal care outcomes. We used data from an evaluation of a P4P programme in Tanzania. Data were collected from a sample of 3000 women who delivered in the 12 months prior to interview and 200 health workers at 150 health facilities from seven intervention and four comparison districts in Tanzania in January 2012 and in February 2013. We applied causal mediation analysis using a linear structural equation model to identify direct and indirect effects of P4P on institutional delivery rates and on the uptake of two doses of an antimalarial drug during pregnancy. We first ran a series of linear difference-in-difference regression models to test the effect of P4P on potential mediators, which we then included in a linear difference-in-difference model evaluating the impact of P4P on the outcome. We tested the robustness of our results to unmeasured confounding using semi-parametric methods. P4P reduced the probability of women paying for delivery care (-4.5 percentage points) which mediates the total effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 48%) and on deliveries in a public health facility (by 78%). P4P reduced the stock-out rate for some essential drugs, specifically oxytocin (-36 percentage points), which mediated the total effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 22%) and deliveries in a public health facility (by 30%). P4P increased kindness at delivery (5 percentage points), which mediated the effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 48%) and on deliveries in a public health facility (by 49%). P4P increased the likelihood of supervision visits taking place within the last 90 days (18 percentage points), which mediated 15% of the total P4P effect on the uptake of

Teen pregnancy and the achievement gap among urban minority youth.

PubMed

Basch, Charles E

2011-10-01

To outline the prevalence and disparities of teen pregnancy among school-aged urban minority youth, causal pathways through which nonmarital teen births adversely affects academic achievement, and proven or promising approaches for schools to address this problem. Literature review. In 2006, the birth rate among 15- to 17-year-old non-Hispanic Blacks (36.1 per 1000) was more than three times as high, and the birth rate among Hispanics (47.9 per 1000) was more than four times as high as the birth rate among non-Hispanic Whites (11.8 per 1000). Compared with women who delay childbearing until age 30, teen mothers' education is estimated to be approximately 2 years shorter. Teen mothers are 10-12% less likely to complete high school and have 14-29% lower odds of attending college. School-based programs have the potential to help teens acquire the knowledge and skills needed to postpone sex, practice safer sex, avoid unintended pregnancy, and if pregnant, to complete high school and pursue postsecondary education. Most students in US middle and high schools receive some kind of sex education. Federal policies and legislation have increased use of the abstinence-only-until-marriage approach, which is disappointing considering the lack of evidence that this approach is effective. Nonmarital teen births are highly and disproportionately prevalent among school-aged urban minority youth, have a negative impact on educational attainment, and effective practices are available for schools to address this problem. Teen pregnancy exerts an important influence on educational attainment among urban minority youth. Decisions about what will be taught should be informed by empirical data documenting the effectiveness of alternative approaches. © 2011, American School Health Association.

Genetic regulation of gene expression in the lung identifies CST3 and CD22 as potential causal genes for airflow obstruction.

PubMed

Lamontagne, Maxime; Timens, Wim; Hao, Ke; Bossé, Yohan; Laviolette, Michel; Steiling, Katrina; Campbell, Joshua D; Couture, Christian; Conti, Massimo; Sherwood, Karen; Hogg, James C; Brandsma, Corry-Anke; van den Berge, Maarten; Sandford, Andrew; Lam, Stephen; Lenburg, Marc E; Spira, Avrum; Paré, Peter D; Nickle, David; Sin, Don D; Postma, Dirkje S

2014-11-01

COPD is a complex chronic disease with poorly understood pathogenesis. Integrative genomic approaches have the potential to elucidate the biological networks underlying COPD and lung function. We recently combined genome-wide genotyping and gene expression in 1111 human lung specimens to map expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL). To determine causal associations between COPD and lung function-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and lung tissue gene expression changes in our lung eQTL dataset. We evaluated causality between SNPs and gene expression for three COPD phenotypes: FEV(1)% predicted, FEV(1)/FVC and COPD as a categorical variable. Different models were assessed in the three cohorts independently and in a meta-analysis. SNPs associated with a COPD phenotype and gene expression were subjected to causal pathway modelling and manual curation. In silico analyses evaluated functional enrichment of biological pathways among newly identified causal genes. Biologically relevant causal genes were validated in two separate gene expression datasets of lung tissues and bronchial airway brushings. High reliability causal relations were found in SNP-mRNA-phenotype triplets for FEV(1)% predicted (n=169) and FEV(1)/FVC (n=80). Several genes of potential biological relevance for COPD were revealed. eQTL-SNPs upregulating cystatin C (CST3) and CD22 were associated with worse lung function. Signalling pathways enriched with causal genes included xenobiotic metabolism, apoptosis, protease-antiprotease and oxidant-antioxidant balance. By using integrative genomics and analysing the relationships of COPD phenotypes with SNPs and gene expression in lung tissue, we identified CST3 and CD22 as potential causal genes for airflow obstruction. This study also augmented the understanding of previously described COPD pathways. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A causal analysis framework for land-use change and the potential role of bioenergy policy

DOE PAGES

Efroymson, Rebecca A.; Kline, Keith L.; Angelsen, Arild; ...

2016-10-05

Here we propose a causal analysis framework to increase the reliability of land-use change (LUC) models and the accuracy of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions calculations for biofuels. The health-sciences-inspired framework is used here to determine probable causes of LUC, with an emphasis on bioenergy and deforestation. Calculations of net GHG emissions for LUC are critical in determining whether a fuel qualifies as a biofuel or advanced biofuel category under national (U.S., U.K.), state (California), and European Union regulations. Biofuel policymakers and scientists continue to discuss whether presumed indirect land-use change (ILUC) estimates, which often involve deforestation, should be includedmore » in GHG accounting for biofuel pathways. Current estimates of ILUC for bioenergy rely largely on economic simulation models that focus on causal pathways involving global commodity trade and use coarse land cover data with simple land classification systems. ILUC estimates are highly uncertain, partly because changes are not clearly defined and key causal links are not sufficiently included in the models. The proposed causal analysis framework begins with a definition of the change that has occurred and proceeds to a strength-of-evidence approach based on types of epidemiological evidence including plausibility of the relationship, completeness of the causal pathway, spatial co-occurrence, time order, analogous agents, simulation model results, and quantitative agent response relationships.Lastly, we discuss how LUC may be allocated among probable causes for policy purposes and how the application of the framework has the potential to increase the validity of LUC models and resolve ILUC and biofuel controversies.« less

A causal analysis framework for land-use change and the potential role of bioenergy policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca A.; Kline, Keith L.; Angelsen, Arild

Here we propose a causal analysis framework to increase the reliability of land-use change (LUC) models and the accuracy of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions calculations for biofuels. The health-sciences-inspired framework is used here to determine probable causes of LUC, with an emphasis on bioenergy and deforestation. Calculations of net GHG emissions for LUC are critical in determining whether a fuel qualifies as a biofuel or advanced biofuel category under national (U.S., U.K.), state (California), and European Union regulations. Biofuel policymakers and scientists continue to discuss whether presumed indirect land-use change (ILUC) estimates, which often involve deforestation, should be includedmore » in GHG accounting for biofuel pathways. Current estimates of ILUC for bioenergy rely largely on economic simulation models that focus on causal pathways involving global commodity trade and use coarse land cover data with simple land classification systems. ILUC estimates are highly uncertain, partly because changes are not clearly defined and key causal links are not sufficiently included in the models. The proposed causal analysis framework begins with a definition of the change that has occurred and proceeds to a strength-of-evidence approach based on types of epidemiological evidence including plausibility of the relationship, completeness of the causal pathway, spatial co-occurrence, time order, analogous agents, simulation model results, and quantitative agent response relationships.Lastly, we discuss how LUC may be allocated among probable causes for policy purposes and how the application of the framework has the potential to increase the validity of LUC models and resolve ILUC and biofuel controversies.« less

Causal models of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: from common simple deficits to multiple developmental pathways.

PubMed

Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S

2005-06-01

Until recently, causal models of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have tended to focus on the role of common, simple, core deficits. One such model highlights the role of executive dysfunction due to deficient inhibitory control resulting from disturbances in the frontodorsal striatal circuit and associated mesocortical dopaminergic branches. An alternative model presents ADHD as resulting from impaired signaling of delayed rewards arising from disturbances in motivational processes, involving frontoventral striatal reward circuits and mesolimbic branches terminating in the ventral striatum, particularly the nucleus accumbens. In the present article, these models are elaborated in two ways. First, they are each placed within their developmental context by consideration of the role of person x environment correlation and interaction and individual adaptation to developmental constraint. Second, their relationship to one another is reviewed in the light of recent data suggesting that delay aversion and executive functions might each make distinctive contributions to the development of the disorder. This provides an impetus for theoretical models built around the idea of multiple neurodevelopmental pathways. The possibility of neuropathologic heterogeneity in ADHD is likely to have important implications for the clinical management of the condition, potentially impacting on both diagnostic strategies and treatment options.

Youth pathways to placement: the influence of gender, mental health need and trauma on confinement in the juvenile justice system.

PubMed

Espinosa, Erin M; Sorensen, Jon R; Lopez, Molly A

2013-12-01

Although the juvenile crime rate has generally declined, the involvement of girls in the juvenile justice system has been increasing. Possible explanations for this gender difference include the impact of exposure to trauma and mental health needs on developmental pathways and the resulting influence of youth's involvement in the justice system. This study examined the influence of gender, mental health needs and trauma on the risk of out-of-home placement for juvenile offenders. The sample included youth referred to three urban juvenile probation departments in Texas between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2008 and who received state-mandated mental health screening (N = 34,222; 30.1 % female). The analysis revealed that, for both genders, elevated scores on the seven factor-analytically derived subscales of a mental health screening instrument (Alcohol and Drug Use, Depressed-Anxious, Somatic Complaints, Suicidal Ideation, Thought Disturbance, and Traumatic Experiences), especially related to past traumatic experiences, influenced how deeply juveniles penetrated the system. The findings suggest that additional research is needed to determine the effectiveness of trauma interventions and the implementation of trauma informed systems for youth involved with the juvenile justice system.

The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

Child welfare-involved youth with intellectual disabilities: pathways into and placements in foster care.

PubMed

Slayter, Elspeth; Springer, Cheryl

2011-02-01

Existing literature suggests that youth with intellectual disabilities are at increased risk for child maltreatment. Little is known about youth with intellectual disabilities who are supervised by child welfare authorities or living in foster care. Reasons for child welfare system involvement and placement types are explored. In this cross-sectional exploratory study, we drew on data from the Adoption and Foster Care Reporting System (AFCARS) for youth in 46 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. A sample of 17,714 youth with intellectual disabilities and a comparison group (n  =  655,536) were identified for 1999. Findings have implications for preventing the removal of youth from caregivers and the promotion of community inclusion of foster youth while in foster care.

Causal reasoning with forces

PubMed Central

Wolff, Phillip; Barbey, Aron K.

2015-01-01

Causal composition allows people to generate new causal relations by combining existing causal knowledge. We introduce a new computational model of such reasoning, the force theory, which holds that people compose causal relations by simulating the processes that join forces in the world, and compare this theory with the mental model theory (Khemlani et al., 2014) and the causal model theory (Sloman et al., 2009), which explain causal composition on the basis of mental models and structural equations, respectively. In one experiment, the force theory was uniquely able to account for people's ability to compose causal relationships from complex animations of real-world events. In three additional experiments, the force theory did as well as or better than the other two theories in explaining the causal compositions people generated from linguistically presented causal relations. Implications for causal learning and the hierarchical structure of causal knowledge are discussed. PMID:25653611

Granger causality revisited

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Bastos, André M.; Oswal, Ashwini; van Wijk, Bernadette; Richter, Craig; Litvak, Vladimir

2014-01-01

This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. PMID:25003817

Neural pathways in processing of sexual arousal: a dynamic causal modeling study.

PubMed

Seok, J-W; Park, M-S; Sohn, J-H

2016-09-01

Three decades of research have investigated brain processing of visual sexual stimuli with neuroimaging methods. These researchers have found that sexual arousal stimuli elicit activity in a broad neural network of cortical and subcortical brain areas that are known to be associated with cognitive, emotional, motivational and physiological components. However, it is not completely understood how these neural systems integrate and modulated incoming information. Therefore, we identify cerebral areas whose activations were correlated with sexual arousal using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging and used the dynamic causal modeling method for searching the effective connectivity about the sexual arousal processing network. Thirteen heterosexual males were scanned while they passively viewed alternating short trials of erotic and neutral pictures on a monitor. We created a subset of seven models based on our results and previous studies and selected a dominant connectivity model. Consequently, we suggest a dynamic causal model of the brain processes mediating the cognitive, emotional, motivational and physiological factors of human male sexual arousal. These findings are significant implications for the neuropsychology of male sexuality.

PPARα siRNA–Treated Expression Profiles Uncover the Causal Sufficiency Network for Compound-Induced Liver Hypertrophy

PubMed Central

Dai, Xudong; Souza, Angus T. De; Dai, Hongyue; Lewis, David L; Lee, Chang-kyu; Spencer, Andy G; Herweijer, Hans; Hagstrom, Jim E; Linsley, Peter S; Bassett, Douglas E; Ulrich, Roger G; He, Yudong D

2007-01-01

Uncovering pathways underlying drug-induced toxicity is a fundamental objective in the field of toxicogenomics. Developing mechanism-based toxicity biomarkers requires the identification of such novel pathways and the order of their sufficiency in causing a phenotypic response. Genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi) phenotypic screening has emerged as an effective tool in unveiling the genes essential for specific cellular functions and biological activities. However, eliciting the relative contribution of and sufficiency relationships among the genes identified remains challenging. In the rodent, the most widely used animal model in preclinical studies, it is unrealistic to exhaustively examine all potential interactions by RNAi screening. Application of existing computational approaches to infer regulatory networks with biological outcomes in the rodent is limited by the requirements for a large number of targeted permutations. Therefore, we developed a two-step relay method that requires only one targeted perturbation for genome-wide de novo pathway discovery. Using expression profiles in response to small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) against the gene for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α (Ppara), our method unveiled the potential causal sufficiency order network for liver hypertrophy in the rodent. The validity of the inferred 16 causal transcripts or 15 known genes for PPARα-induced liver hypertrophy is supported by their ability to predict non-PPARα–induced liver hypertrophy with 84% sensitivity and 76% specificity. Simulation shows that the probability of achieving such predictive accuracy without the inferred causal relationship is exceedingly small (p < 0.005). Five of the most sufficient causal genes have been previously disrupted in mouse models; the resulting phenotypic changes in the liver support the inferred causal roles in liver hypertrophy. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of defining pathways mediating drug-induced toxicity from

Messy, Butch, and Queer: LGBTQ Youth and the School-to-Prison Pipeline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snapp, Shannon D.; Hoenig, Jennifer M.; Fields, Amanda; Russell, Stephen T.

2015-01-01

Emerging evidence suggests that lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning (LGBTQ) youth experience disparate treatment in schools that may result in criminal sanctions. In an effort to understand the pathways that push youth out of schools, we conducted focus groups with youth (n = 31) from Arizona, California, and Georgia, and…

When Schooling Experiences Are Respectful of Children's Rights: A Pathway to Resilience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theron, Linda; Liebenberg, Linda; Malindi, Macalane

2014-01-01

This article reports findings from the Pathways to Resilience study, South Africa. Rooted in a social ecological understanding of resilience, this mixed-methods study investigated resilience processes of black South African youths from poverty-stricken, rural contexts. School-attending youths (n = 951) completed the Pathways to Resilience Youth…

The cradle of causal reasoning: newborns' preference for physical causality.

PubMed

Mascalzoni, Elena; Regolin, Lucia; Vallortigara, Giorgio; Simion, Francesca

2013-05-01

Perception of mechanical (i.e. physical) causality, in terms of a cause-effect relationship between two motion events, appears to be a powerful mechanism in our daily experience. In spite of a growing interest in the earliest causal representations, the role of experience in the origin of this sensitivity is still a matter of dispute. Here, we asked the question about the innate origin of causal perception, never tested before at birth. Three experiments were carried out to investigate sensitivity at birth to some visual spatiotemporal cues present in a launching event. Newborn babies, only a few hours old, showed that they significantly preferred a physical causality event (i.e. Michotte's Launching effect) when matched to a delay event (i.e. a delayed launching; Experiment 1) or to a non-causal event completely identical to the causal one except for the order of the displacements of the two objects involved which was swapped temporally (Experiment 3). This preference for the launching event, moreover, also depended on the continuity of the trajectory between the objects involved in the event (Experiment 2). These results support the hypothesis that the human system possesses an early available, possibly innate basic mechanism to compute causality, such a mechanism being sensitive to the additive effect of certain well-defined spatiotemporal cues present in the causal event independently of any prior visual experience. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Positive Youth Development and Resilience: Growth Patterns of Social Skills Among Youth Investigated for Maltreatment.

PubMed

Oshri, Assaf; Topple, Trasie A; Carlson, Matthew W

2017-07-01

Maltreated children are a vulnerable population, yet many of these youth follow positive developmental pathways. The primary aim was to identify social skills growth trajectories among at-risk youth to understand processes underlying resilience. Nationally representative, longitudinal data from 1,179 families investigated for child maltreatment (M age  = 12.75) were obtained from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being. Four trajectories were identified-stress-resistant, emergent resilience, breakdown, and unresponsive-maladaptive. Protective resources from multiple levels of the youth ecology (individual, family, school, and social service) predicted positive growth social skills trajectories. Resilience process and attendant positive outcomes in multiple domains of functioning were evident among the stress-resistant and emergent resilience trajectories. Results underscore the saliency of social skills development for resilient outcomes in youth. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Pathways to Success for America's Youth and Young Families. Citizenship through Service.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

William T. Grant Foundation, Washington, DC. Commission on Work, Family, and Citizenship.

This report focuses on youth service as a vital component of education for citizenship. The following six major recommendations to encourage voluntary student and youth services are offered: (1) creation of quality student service opportunities as central to the fundamental educational program of every public school, including either elective…

Drug-disease association and drug-repositioning predictions in complex diseases using causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization.

PubMed

Yang, Jihong; Li, Zheng; Fan, Xiaohui; Cheng, Yiyu

2014-09-22

The high incidence of complex diseases has become a worldwide threat to human health. Multiple targets and pathways are perturbed during the pathological process of complex diseases. Systematic investigation of complex relationship between drugs and diseases is necessary for new association discovery and drug repurposing. For this purpose, three causal networks were constructed herein for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms, respectively. A causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization (CI-PMF) approach was proposed to predict and classify drug-disease associations, and further used for drug-repositioning predictions. First, multilevel systematic relations between drugs and diseases were integrated from heterogeneous databases to construct causal networks connecting drug-target-pathway-gene-disease. Then, the association scores between drugs and diseases were assessed by evaluating a drug's effects on multiple targets and pathways. Furthermore, PMF models were learned based on known interactions, and associations were then classified into three types by trained models. Finally, therapeutic associations were predicted based upon the ranking of association scores and predicted association types. In terms of drug-disease association prediction, modified causal inference included in CI-PMF outperformed existing causal inference with a higher AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) score and greater precision. Moreover, CI-PMF performed better than single modified causal inference in predicting therapeutic drug-disease associations. In the top 30% of predicted associations, 58.6% (136/232), 50.8% (31/61), and 39.8% (140/352) hit known therapeutic associations, while precisions obtained by the latter were only 10.2% (231/2264), 8.8% (36/411), and 9.7% (189/1948). Clinical verifications were further conducted for the top 100 newly predicted therapeutic associations. As a result, 21, 12, and 32 associations have been studied and

Pathways to anxiety-depression comorbidity: A longitudinal examination of childhood anxiety disorders.

PubMed

Wolk, Courtney Benjamin; Carper, Matthew M; Kendall, Philip C; Olino, Thomas M; Marcus, Steven C; Beidas, Rinad S

2016-10-01

Anxiety disorders are prevalent in youth and associated with later depressive disorders. A recent model posits three distinct anxiety-depression pathways. Pathway 1 represents youth with a diathesis to anxiety that increases risk for depressive disorders; Pathway 2 describes youth with a shared anxiety-depression diathesis; and Pathway 3 consists of youth with a diathesis for depression who develop anxiety as a consequence of depression impairment. This is the first partial test of this model following cognitive-behavioral treatment (CBT) for child anxiety. The present study included individuals (N = 66; M age = 27.23 years, SD = 3.54) treated with CBT for childhood anxiety disorders 7-19 years (M = 16.24; SD = 3.56) earlier. Information regarding anxiety (i.e., social phobia (SoP), separation anxiety disorder (SAD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD)) and mood disorders (i.e., major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthymic disorders) was obtained at pretreatment, posttreatment, and one or more follow-up intervals via interviews and self-reports. Evidence of pathways from SoP, SAD, and GAD to later depressive disorders was not observed. Treatment responders evidenced reduced GAD and SoP over time, although SoP was observed to have a more chronic and enduring pattern. Evidence for typically observed pathways from childhood anxiety disorders was not observed. Future research should prospectively examine if CBT treatment response disrupts commonly observed pathways. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Differences in Causal Estimates from Longitudinal Analyses of Residualized versus Simple Gain Scores: Contrasting Controls for Selection and Regression Artifacts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larzelere, Robert E.; Ferrer, Emilio; Kuhn, Brett R.; Danelia, Ketevan

2010-01-01

This study estimates the causal effects of six corrective actions for children's problem behaviors, comparing four types of longitudinal analyses that correct for pre-existing differences in a cohort of 1,464 4- and 5-year-olds from Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) data. Analyses of residualized gain scores found…

New Evidence Against a Causal Marriage Wage Premium.

PubMed

Killewald, Alexandra; Lundberg, Ian

2017-06-01

Recent research has shown that men's wages rise more rapidly than expected prior to marriage, but interpretations diverge on whether this indicates selection or a causal effect of anticipating marriage. We seek to adjudicate this debate by bringing together literatures on (1) the male marriage wage premium; (2) selection into marriage based on men's economic circumstances; and (3) the transition to adulthood, during which both union formation and unusually rapid improvements in work outcomes often occur. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we evaluate these perspectives. We show that wage declines predate rather than follow divorce, indicating no evidence that staying married benefits men's wages. We find that older grooms experience no unusual wage patterns at marriage, suggesting that the observed marriage premium may simply reflect co-occurrence with the transition to adulthood for younger grooms. We show that men entering shotgun marriages experience similar premarital wage gains as other grooms, casting doubt on the claim that anticipation of marriage drives wage increases. We conclude that the observed wage patterns are most consistent with men marrying when their wages are already rising more rapidly than expected and divorcing when their wages are already falling, with no additional causal effect of marriage on wages.

Nonsuicidal self-injury among "privileged" youths: longitudinal and cross-sectional approaches to developmental process.

PubMed

Yates, Tuppett M; Tracy, Allison J; Luthar, Suniya S

2008-02-01

This investigation examined process-level pathways to nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI; e.g., self-cutting, -burning, -hitting) in 2 cohorts of suburban, upper-middle-class youths: a cross-sectional sample of 9th-12th graders (n = 1,036, 51.9% girls) on the West Coast and a longitudinal sample followed annually from the 6th through 12th grades (n = 245, 53.1% girls) on the East Coast. High rates of NSSI were found in both the cross-sectional (37.2%) and the longitudinal (26.1%) samples. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models estimated process-level pathways from perceived parental criticism to NSSI via youth-reported alienation toward parents. Pathways toward the initiation of NSSI were distinct from those accounting for its frequency. Parental criticism was associated with increased NSSI, and youth alienation toward parents emerged as a relevant process underlying this pathway, particularly for boys. The specificity of these pathways was explored by examining separate trajectories toward delinquent outcomes. The findings illustrate the prominence of NSSI among "privileged" youths, the salience of the caregiving environment in NSSI, the importance of parental alienation in explaining these relations, and the value of incorporating multiple systems in treatment approaches for adolescents who self-injure.

Repeated causal decision making.

PubMed

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Co-Authoring Gender-Queer Youth Identities: Discursive "Tellings" and "Retellings"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saltzburg, Susan; Davis, Tamara S.

2010-01-01

For youth who challenge the culturally fixed gender dichotomy through nonconventional gender expression, societal reaction can be harsh. Uncovering these youth voices as they pioneer new gender frontiers through pathways of language and social dialogue provides the focus for this manuscript. Drawing from discursive, narrative practices, we sat in…

Do Historical Changes in Parent-Child Relationships Explain Increases in Youth Conduct Problems?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collishaw, Stephan; Gardner, Frances; Maughan, Barbara; Scott, Jacqueline; Pickles, Andrew

2012-01-01

The coincidence of historical trends in youth antisocial behavior and change in family demographics has led to speculation of a causal link, possibly mediated by declining quality of parenting and parent-child relationships. No study to date has directly assessed whether and how parenting and parent-child relationships have changed. Two national…

Relativistic causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valente, Giovanni; Owen Weatherall, James

2014-11-01

Relativity theory is often taken to include, or to imply, a prohibition on superluminal propagation of causal processes. Yet, what exactly the prohibition on superluminal propagation amounts to and how one should deal with its possible violation have remained open philosophical problems, both in the context of the metaphysics of causation and the foundations of physics. In particular, recent work in philosophy of physics has focused on the causal structure of spacetime in relativity theory and on how this causal structure manifests itself in our most fundamental theories of matter. These topics were the subject of a workshop on "Relativistic Causality in Quantum Field Theory and General Relativity" that we organized (along with John Earman) at the Center for Philosophy of Science in Pittsburgh on April 5-7, 2013. The present Special Issue comprises contributions by speakers in that workshop as well as several other experts exploring different aspects of relativistic causality. We are grateful to the journal for hosting this Special Issue, to the journal's managing editor, Femke Kuiling, for her help and support in putting the issue together, and to the authors and the referees for their excellent work.

Neural Connectivity in Epilepsy as Measured by Granger Causality.

PubMed

Coben, Robert; Mohammad-Rezazadeh, Iman

2015-01-01

Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder characterized by repeated seizures or excessive electrical discharges in a group of brain cells. Prevalence rates include about 50 million people worldwide and 10% of all people have at least one seizure at one time in their lives. Connectivity models of epilepsy serve to provide a deeper understanding of the processes that control and regulate seizure activity. These models have received initial support and have included measures of EEG, MEG, and MRI connectivity. Preliminary findings have shown regions of increased connectivity in the immediate regions surrounding the seizure foci and associated low connectivity in nearby regions and pathways. There is also early evidence to suggest that these patterns change during ictal events and that these changes may even by related to the occurrence or triggering of seizure events. We present data showing how Granger causality can be used with EEG data to measure connectivity across brain regions involved in ictal events and their resolution. We have provided two case examples as a demonstration of how to obtain and interpret such data. EEG data of ictal events are processed, converted to independent components and their dipole localizations, and these are used to measure causality and connectivity between these locations. Both examples have shown hypercoupling near the seizure foci and low causality across nearby and associated neuronal pathways. This technique also allows us to track how these measures change over time and during the ictal and post-ictal periods. Areas for further research into this technique, its application to epilepsy, and the formation of more effective therapeutic interventions are recommended.

Two-step epigenetic Mendelian randomization: a strategy for establishing the causal role of epigenetic processes in pathways to disease

PubMed Central

Relton, Caroline L; Davey Smith, George

2012-01-01

The burgeoning interest in the field of epigenetics has precipitated the need to develop approaches to strengthen causal inference when considering the role of epigenetic mediators of environmental exposures on disease risk. Epigenetic markers, like any other molecular biomarker, are vulnerable to confounding and reverse causation. Here, we present a strategy, based on the well-established framework of Mendelian randomization, to interrogate the causal relationships between exposure, DNA methylation and outcome. The two-step approach first uses a genetic proxy for the exposure of interest to assess the causal relationship between exposure and methylation. A second step then utilizes a genetic proxy for DNA methylation to interrogate the causal relationship between DNA methylation and outcome. The rationale, origins, methodology, advantages and limitations of this novel strategy are presented. PMID:22422451

Causality re-established.

PubMed

D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

2018-07-13

Causality has never gained the status of a 'law' or 'principle' in physics. Some recent literature has even popularized the false idea that causality is a notion that should be banned from theory. Such misconception relies on an alleged universality of the reversibility of the laws of physics, based either on the determinism of classical theory, or on the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory, in both cases motivated by mere interpretational requirements for realism of the theory. Here, I will show that a properly defined unambiguous notion of causality is a theorem of quantum theory, which is also a falsifiable proposition of the theory. Such a notion of causality appeared in the literature within the framework of operational probabilistic theories. It is a genuinely theoretical notion, corresponding to establishing a definite partial order among events, in the same way as we do by using the future causal cone on Minkowski space. The notion of causality is logically completely independent of the misidentified concept of 'determinism', and, being a consequence of quantum theory, is ubiquitous in physics. In addition, as classical theory can be regarded as a restriction of quantum theory, causality holds also in the classical case, although the determinism of the theory trivializes it. I then conclude by arguing that causality naturally establishes an arrow of time. This implies that the scenario of the 'block Universe' and the connected 'past hypothesis' are incompatible with causality, and thus with quantum theory: they are both doomed to remain mere interpretations and, as such, are not falsifiable, similar to the hypothesis of 'super-determinism'.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Long-term athletic development- part 1: a pathway for all youth.

PubMed

Lloyd, Rhodri S; Oliver, Jon L; Faigenbaum, Avery D; Howard, Rick; De Ste Croix, Mark B A; Williams, Craig A; Best, Thomas M; Alvar, Brent A; Micheli, Lyle J; Thomas, D Phillip; Hatfield, Disa L; Cronin, John B; Myer, Gregory D

2015-05-01

The concept of developing talent and athleticism in youth is the goal of many coaches and sports systems. Consequently, an increasing number of sporting organizations have adopted long-term athletic development models in an attempt to provide a structured approach to the training of youth. It is clear that maximizing sporting talent is an important goal of long-term athletic development models. However, ensuring that youth of all ages and abilities are provided with a strategic plan for the development of their health and physical fitness is also important to maximize physical activity participation rates, reduce the risk of sport- and activity-related injury, and to ensure long-term health and well-being. Critical reviews of independent models of long-term athletic development are already present within the literature; however, to the best of our knowledge, a comprehensive examination and review of the most prominent models does not exist. Additionally, considerations of modern day issues that may impact on the success of any long-term athletic development model are lacking, as are proposed solutions to address such issues. Therefore, within this 2-part commentary, Part 1 provides a critical review of existing models of practice for long-term athletic development and introduces a composite youth development model that includes the integration of talent, psychosocial and physical development across maturation. Part 2 identifies limiting factors that may restrict the success of such models and offers potential solutions.

Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Among “Privileged” Youths: Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional Approaches to Developmental Process

PubMed Central

Yates, Tuppett M.; Luthar, Suniya S.; Tracy, Allison J.

2015-01-01

This investigation examined process-level pathways to nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI; e.g., self-cutting, -burning, -hitting) in 2 cohorts of suburban, upper-middle-class youths: a cross-sectional sample of 9th–12th graders (n = 1,036, 51.9% girls) on the West Coast and a longitudinal sample followed annually from the 6th through 12th grades (n = 245, 53.1% girls) on the East Coast. High rates of NSSI were found in both the cross-sectional (37.2%) and the longitudinal (26.1%) samples. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models estimated process-level pathways from perceived parental criticism to NSSI via youth-reported alienation toward parents. Pathways toward the initiation of NSSI were distinct from those accounting for its frequency. Parental criticism was associated with increased NSSI, and youth alienation toward parents emerged as a relevant process underlying this pathway, particularly for boys. The specificity of these pathways was explored by examining separate trajectories toward delinquent outcomes. The findings illustrate the prominence of NSSI among “privileged” youths, the salience of the caregiving environment in NSSI, the importance of parental alienation in explaining these relations, and the value of incorporating multiple systems in treatment approaches for adolescents who self-injure. PMID:18229983

Learning to learn causal models.

PubMed

Kemp, Charles; Goodman, Noah D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2010-09-01

Learning to understand a single causal system can be an achievement, but humans must learn about multiple causal systems over the course of a lifetime. We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework that helps to explain how learning about several causal systems can accelerate learning about systems that are subsequently encountered. Given experience with a set of objects, our framework learns a causal model for each object and a causal schema that captures commonalities among these causal models. The schema organizes the objects into categories and specifies the causal powers and characteristic features of these categories and the characteristic causal interactions between categories. A schema of this kind allows causal models for subsequent objects to be rapidly learned, and we explore this accelerated learning in four experiments. Our results confirm that humans learn rapidly about the causal powers of novel objects, and we show that our framework accounts better for our data than alternative models of causal learning. Copyright © 2010 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

The social determinants of oral health: new approaches to conceptualizing and researching complex causal networks.

PubMed

Newton, J Timothy; Bower, Elizabeth J

2005-02-01

Oral epidemiological research into the social determinants of oral health has been limited by the absence of a theoretical framework which reflects the complexity of real life social processes and the network of causal pathways between social structure and oral health and disease. In the absence of such a framework, social determinants are treated as isolated risk factors, attributable to the individual, having a direct impact on oral health. There is little sense of how such factors interrelate over time and place and the pathways between the factors and oral health. Features of social life which impact on individuals' oral health but are not reducible to the individual remain under-researched. A conceptual framework informing mainstream epidemiological research into the social determinants of health is applied to oral epidemiology. The framework suggests complex causal pathways between social structure and health via interlinking material, psychosocial and behavioural pathways. Methodological implications for oral epidemiological research informed by the framework, such as the use of multilevel modelling, path analysis and structural equation modelling, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods, and collaborative research, are discussed. Copyright Blackwell Munksgaard, 2005.

Pathways to Success for Michigan's Opportunity Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Youth Policy Forum, 2015

2015-01-01

Each young person must navigate his/her own pathway into and through postsecondary education and the workforce to long-term success personalized to his/her own unique needs and desires. The pathway to long-term success is often articulated as a straight road through K-12 education into postsecondary education (either academic or technical…

A quantum causal discovery algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giarmatzi, Christina; Costa, Fabio

2018-03-01

Finding a causal model for a set of classical variables is now a well-established task—but what about the quantum equivalent? Even the notion of a quantum causal model is controversial. Here, we present a causal discovery algorithm for quantum systems. The input to the algorithm is a process matrix describing correlations between quantum events. Its output consists of different levels of information about the underlying causal model. Our algorithm determines whether the process is causally ordered by grouping the events into causally ordered non-signaling sets. It detects if all relevant common causes are included in the process, which we label Markovian, or alternatively if some causal relations are mediated through some external memory. For a Markovian process, it outputs a causal model, namely the causal relations and the corresponding mechanisms, represented as quantum states and channels. Our algorithm opens the route to more general quantum causal discovery methods.

Epidemiological causality.

PubMed

Morabia, Alfredo

2005-01-01

Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

Pathways from Polyvictimization to Youth Problem Behaviors: The Critical Role of School Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voisin, Dexter R.; Elsaesser, Caitlin M.

2013-01-01

School engagement has a powerful influence on youth development. Youth who fail in school are at significant risk for a host of subsequent psychosocial outcomes, including substance use, risky sexual behaviors, gang involvement, and increased contact with juvenile justice authorities. Although school engagement is an important determinant of key…

Beyond "NEET" and "Tidy" Pathways: Considering the "Missing Middle" of Youth Transition Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Steven

2011-01-01

Jones' (2002) discussion of polarised transitions and the "fast and slow lanes to adulthood" espoused by Bynner "et al." (2002) are good examples of how dualistic language often permeates youth transitions discourses. This often results in transitions research concentrating on a dichotomy of experience during the youth phase.…

Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

PubMed Central

Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

South African, urban youth narratives: Resilience within community.

PubMed

Mosavel, Maghboeba; Ahmed, Rashid; Ports, Katie A; Simon, Christian

2015-06-01

South African youth in low-income, urbanized communities are exposed to high levels of daily stressors, which increase their risk to negative outcomes. Resiliency can provide avenues for youth to transcend adversity and may contribute to their positive development. To provide a deeper understanding of the pathways that adolescents use to overcome adversity, this paper examined future aspirations of South African youth, and how these aspirations were connected to resiliency factors framed by their lived context. A phenomenological approach was used to explore the perceptions of high school students. Fourteen focus groups with girls and boys (N=112) were conducted. Data was analyzed using a thematic approach. Discussions of the harsh conditions undermining the community's future highlighted opportunities for improvement. Community connectedness, hope and altruism were prevalent in youth's responses and could be used to facilitate community and individual resiliency. Our overall findings have important implications for positive youth development efforts.

The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association".

PubMed

Ward, Andrew C

2009-06-17

As noted by Wesley Salmon and many others, causal concepts are ubiquitous in every branch of theoretical science, in the practical disciplines and in everyday life. In the theoretical and practical sciences especially, people often base claims about causal relations on applications of statistical methods to data. However, the source and type of data place important constraints on the choice of statistical methods as well as on the warrant attributed to the causal claims based on the use of such methods. For example, much of the data used by people interested in making causal claims come from non-experimental, observational studies in which random allocations to treatment and control groups are not present. Thus, one of the most important problems in the social and health sciences concerns making justified causal inferences using non-experimental, observational data. In this paper, I examine one method of justifying such inferences that is especially widespread in epidemiology and the health sciences generally - the use of causal criteria. I argue that while the use of causal criteria is not appropriate for either deductive or inductive inferences, they do have an important role to play in inferences to the best explanation. As such, causal criteria, exemplified by what Bradford Hill referred to as "aspects of [statistical] associations", have an indispensible part to play in the goal of making justified causal claims.

The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association"

PubMed Central

Ward, Andrew C

2009-01-01

As noted by Wesley Salmon and many others, causal concepts are ubiquitous in every branch of theoretical science, in the practical disciplines and in everyday life. In the theoretical and practical sciences especially, people often base claims about causal relations on applications of statistical methods to data. However, the source and type of data place important constraints on the choice of statistical methods as well as on the warrant attributed to the causal claims based on the use of such methods. For example, much of the data used by people interested in making causal claims come from non-experimental, observational studies in which random allocations to treatment and control groups are not present. Thus, one of the most important problems in the social and health sciences concerns making justified causal inferences using non-experimental, observational data. In this paper, I examine one method of justifying such inferences that is especially widespread in epidemiology and the health sciences generally – the use of causal criteria. I argue that while the use of causal criteria is not appropriate for either deductive or inductive inferences, they do have an important role to play in inferences to the best explanation. As such, causal criteria, exemplified by what Bradford Hill referred to as "aspects of [statistical] associations", have an indispensible part to play in the goal of making justified causal claims. PMID:19534788

Career Counseling with Undocumented Latino Youth: A Qualitative Analysis of School Counselors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storlie, Cassandra Ann

2013-01-01

The career development trajectory of undocumented Latino youth can present unique challenges for school counselors. Undocumented Latino youth have few career choices due to holding different values from the majority culture, realistic fears of deportation, restrictions in obtaining lawful employment, and having an unconventional pathway to…

Timing and Causality in the Generation of Learned Eyelid Responses

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Campusano, Raudel; Gruart, Agnès; Delgado-García, José M.

2011-01-01

The cerebellum-red nucleus-facial motoneuron (Mn) pathway has been reported as being involved in the proper timing of classically conditioned eyelid responses. This special type of associative learning serves as a model of event timing for studying the role of the cerebellum in dynamic motor control. Here, we have re-analyzed the firing activities of cerebellar posterior interpositus (IP) neurons and orbicularis oculi (OO) Mns in alert behaving cats during classical eyeblink conditioning, using a delay paradigm. The aim was to revisit the hypothesis that the IP neurons (IPns) can be considered a neuronal phase-modulating device supporting OO Mns firing with an emergent timing mechanism and an explicit correlation code during learned eyelid movements. Optimized experimental and computational tools allowed us to determine the different causal relationships (temporal order and correlation code) during and between trials. These intra- and inter-trial timing strategies expanding from sub-second range (millisecond timing) to longer-lasting ranges (interval timing) expanded the functional domain of cerebellar timing beyond motor control. Interestingly, the results supported the above-mentioned hypothesis. The causal inferences were influenced by the precise motor and pre-motor spike timing in the cause-effect interval, and, in addition, the timing of the learned responses depended on cerebellar–Mn network causality. Furthermore, the timing of CRs depended upon the probability of simulated causal conditions in the cause-effect interval and not the mere duration of the inter-stimulus interval. In this work, the close relation between timing and causality was verified. It could thus be concluded that the firing activities of IPns may be related more to the proper performance of ongoing CRs (i.e., the proper timing as a consequence of the pertinent causality) than to their generation and/or initiation. PMID:21941469

A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M.; Schulz, Laura E.; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

2004-01-01

The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously…

Conjectures on the relations of linking and causality in causally simple spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernov, Vladimir

2018-05-01

We formulate the generalization of the Legendrian Low conjecture of Natario and Tod (proved by Nemirovski and myself before) to the case of causally simple spacetimes. We prove a weakened version of the corresponding statement. In all known examples, a causally simple spacetime can be conformally embedded as an open subset into some globally hyperbolic and the space of light rays in is an open submanifold of the space of light rays in . If this is always the case, this provides an approach to solving the conjectures relating causality and linking in causally simple spacetimes.

Enhancing life prospects of socially vulnerable youth through sport participation: a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Super, Sabina; Hermens, Niels; Verkooijen, Kirsten; Koelen, Maria

2014-07-09

Sport participation has been associated with improved life prospects such as academic performance and employability prospects. As such, promoting sport participation might be a way to increase life prospects, especially for socially vulnerable youth because they are less physically active than their peers. However, the evidence for the causal effect of sport participation on these outcomes is still limited and little is known about factors that play a role in this possible effect. The aim of this study is four-fold. First, the causal effect of sport participation on life prospects is studied and the underlying mechanisms of this relation are explored. Secondly, the life experiences of the youngsters in the sport context, that may contribute to skill development, are studied. Thirdly, social conditions for a positive effect are explored, as sport is likely to have a positive effect under specific conditions. Fourthly, this study aims to provide insights on the elements of successful partnerships between youth care organisations and local sport clubs. This protocol reports on a mixed method study. An intervention that aims to increase the sport participation of socially vulnerable youth, between 12-23 years old, is implemented in three regions of a Rotterdam youth care organisation. The youngsters in the two control regions receive care-as-usual. The main outcome variables, collected via questionnaires, are the life prospect, sense of coherence and self-regulation skills of the youngsters after 6 and 18 months of follow-up. The Motivational Climate Scale is administered to explore the social conditions for a positive effect and interviews are conducted with sport coaches to explore their role in skill development. Interviews with the youngsters are conducted to gain insight on the life experiences that may lead to skill development. The elements of successful partnerships are collected during interviews with youth care professionals, sport coaches and other

Enhancing life prospects of socially vulnerable youth through sport participation: a mixed methods study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Sport participation has been associated with improved life prospects such as academic performance and employability prospects. As such, promoting sport participation might be a way to increase life prospects, especially for socially vulnerable youth because they are less physically active than their peers. However, the evidence for the causal effect of sport participation on these outcomes is still limited and little is known about factors that play a role in this possible effect. The aim of this study is four-fold. First, the causal effect of sport participation on life prospects is studied and the underlying mechanisms of this relation are explored. Secondly, the life experiences of the youngsters in the sport context, that may contribute to skill development, are studied. Thirdly, social conditions for a positive effect are explored, as sport is likely to have a positive effect under specific conditions. Fourthly, this study aims to provide insights on the elements of successful partnerships between youth care organisations and local sport clubs. Methods and design This protocol reports on a mixed method study. An intervention that aims to increase the sport participation of socially vulnerable youth, between 12–23 years old, is implemented in three regions of a Rotterdam youth care organisation. The youngsters in the two control regions receive care-as-usual. The main outcome variables, collected via questionnaires, are the life prospect, sense of coherence and self-regulation skills of the youngsters after 6 and 18 months of follow-up. The Motivational Climate Scale is administered to explore the social conditions for a positive effect and interviews are conducted with sport coaches to explore their role in skill development. Interviews with the youngsters are conducted to gain insight on the life experiences that may lead to skill development. The elements of successful partnerships are collected during interviews with youth care professionals

Causal Systems Categories: Differences in Novice and Expert Categorization of Causal Phenomena

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rottman, Benjamin M.; Gentner, Dedre; Goldwater, Micah B.

2012-01-01

We investigated the understanding of causal systems categories--categories defined by common causal structure rather than by common domain content--among college students. We asked students who were either novices or experts in the physical sciences to sort descriptions of real-world phenomena that varied in their causal structure (e.g., negative…

Improving mental health care transitions for children and youth: a protocol to implement and evaluate an emergency department clinical pathway.

PubMed

Jabbour, Mona; Reid, S; Polihronis, C; Cloutier, P; Gardner, W; Kennedy, A; Gray, C; Zemek, R; Pajer, K; Barrowman, N; Cappelli, M

2016-07-07

While the emergency department (ED) is often a first point of entry for children and youth with mental health (MH) concerns, there is a limited capacity to respond to MH needs in this setting. Child MH systems are typically fragmented among multiple ministries, organizations, and providers. Communication among these groups is often poor, resulting in gaps, particularly in transitions of care, for this vulnerable population. The evidence-based Emergency Department Mental Health Clinical Pathway (EDMHCP) was created with two main goals: (1) to guide risk assessment and disposition decision-making for children and youth presenting to the ED with MH concerns and (2) to provide a streamlined transition to follow-up services with community MH agencies (CMHAs) and other providers. The purpose of this paper is to describe our study protocol to implement and evaluate the EDMHCP. This mixed methods health services research project will involve implementation and evaluation of the EDMHCP in four exemplar ED-CMHA dyads. The Theoretical Domains Framework will be used to develop a tailored intervention strategy to implement the EDMHCP. A multiple baseline study design and interrupted time-series analysis will be used to determine if the EDMHCP has improved health care utilization, medical management of the MH problems, and health sector coordination. The primary process outcome will be the proportion of patients with MH-specific recommendations documented in the health record. The primary service outcome will be the proportion of patients receiving the EDMHCP-recommended follow-up at 24-h or at 7 days. Data sources will include qualitative interviews, health record audits, administrative databases, and patient surveys. A concurrent process evaluation will be conducted to assess the degree of variability and fidelity in implementation across the sites. This paper presents a novel model for measuring the effects of the EDMHCP. Our development process will identify how the EDMHCP

Detecting causal drivers and empirical prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Capua, G.; Vellore, R.; Raghavan, K.; Coumou, D.

2017-12-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is crucial for the economy, society and natural ecosystems on the Indian peninsula. Predict the total seasonal rainfall at several months lead time would help to plan effective water management strategies, improve flood or drought protection programs and prevent humanitarian crisis. However, the complexity and strong internal variability of the ISM circulation system make skillful seasonal forecasting challenging. Moreover, to adequately identify the low-frequency, and far-away processes which influence ISM behavior novel tools are needed. We applied a Response-Guided Causal Precursor Detection (RGCPD) scheme, which is a novel empirical prediction method which unites a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm (CEN). These tool allow us to assess causal pathways between different components of the ISM circulation system and with far-away regions in the tropics, mid-latitudes or Arctic. The scheme has successfully been used to identify causal precursors of the Stratospheric polar vortex enabling skillful predictions at (sub) seasonal timescales (Kretschmer et al. 2016, J.Clim., Kretschmer et al. 2017, GRL). We analyze observed ISM monthly rainfall over the monsoon trough region. Applying causal discovery techniques, we identify several causal precursor communities in the fields of 2m-temperature, sea level pressure and snow depth over Eurasia. Specifically, our results suggest that surface temperature conditions in both tropical and Arctic regions contribute to ISM variability. A linear regression prediction model based on the identified set of communities has good hindcasting skills with 4-5 months lead times. Further we separate El Nino, La Nina and ENSO-neutral years from each other and find that the causal precursors are different dependent on ENSO state. The ENSO-state dependent causal precursors give even higher skill, especially for La Nina years when the ISM is relatively strong. These

Parent-child drug communication: pathway from parents' ad exposure to youth's marijuana use intention.

PubMed

Huansuriya, Thipnapa; Siegel, Jason T; Crano, William D

2014-01-01

The authors combined the 2-step flow of communication model and the theory of planned behavior to create a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of a set of advertisements from the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign promoting parent-child drug communication. The sample consisted of 1,349 pairs of parents and children who responded to the first and second annual rounds of the National Survey of Parents and Youth, and 1,276 pairs from Rounds 3 and 4. Parents' exposure to the campaign reported at Round 1 was indirectly associated with youth's lowered intentions to use marijuana at Round 2. Ad exposure was associated with positive changes in parental attitudes toward drug communication and perceived social approval of antidrug communications. These two beliefs, along with perceived behavioral control, predicted parents' intentions to discuss drugs with their children. Parental intentions to discuss drugs reported at Round 1 were associated with youth's report of actual drug communication with their parents at Round 2. Frequency and breadth of the topics in parent-child drug communication were associated with less positive attitudes toward marijuana use among youth who spoke with their parents. Together, the child's attitudes toward marijuana use and perceived ability to refuse marijuana use predicted youth's intentions to use marijuana. The proposed model fit well with the data and was replicated in a parallel analysis of the data from Rounds 3 and 4. Implications for future antidrug media campaign efforts are discussed.

Trust and health: testing the reverse causality hypothesis

PubMed Central

Giordano, Giuseppe Nicola; Lindström, Martin

2016-01-01

Background Social capital research has consistently shown positive associations between generalised trust and health outcomes over 2 decades. Longitudinal studies attempting to test causal relationships further support the theory that trust is an independent predictor of health. However, as the reverse causality hypothesis has yet to be empirically tested, a knowledge gap remains. The aim of this study, therefore, was to investigate if health status predicts trust. Methods Data employed in this study came from 4 waves of the British Household Panel Survey between years 2000 and 2007 (N=8114). The sample was stratified by baseline trust to investigate temporal relationships between prior self-rated health (SRH) and changes in trust. We used logistic regression models with random effects, as trust was expected to be more similar within the same individuals over time. Results From the ‘Can trust at baseline’ cohort, poor SRH at time (t−1) predicted low trust at time (t) (OR=1.38). Likewise, good health predicted high trust within the ‘Cannot’ trust cohort (OR=1.30). These patterns of positive association remained after robustness checks, which adjusted for misclassification of outcome (trust) status and the existence of other temporal pathways. Conclusions This study offers empirical evidence to support the circular nature of trust/health relationship. The stability of association between prior health status and changes in trust over time differed between cohorts, hinting at the existence of complex pathways rather than a simple positive feedback loop. PMID:26546287

Does Causal Action Facilitate Causal Perception in Infants Younger than 6 Months of Age?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rakison, David H.; Krogh, Lauren

2012-01-01

Previous research has established that infants are unable to perceive causality until 6 1/4 months of age. The current experiments examined whether infants' ability to engage in causal action could facilitate causal perception prior to this age. In Experiment 1, 4 1/2-month-olds were randomly assigned to engage in causal action experience via…

Agency, time, and causality

PubMed Central

Widlok, Thomas

2014-01-01

Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-Western Educational Industrial Rich Democratic people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition. PMID:25414683

Examining the Protective Effect of Ethnic Identity on Drug Attitudes and Use Among a Diverse Youth Population.

PubMed

Zapolski, Tamika C B; Fisher, Sycarah; Banks, Devin E; Hensel, Devon J; Barnes-Najor, Jessica

2017-08-01

Ethnic identity is an important buffer against drug use among minority youth. However, limited work has examined pathways through which ethnic identity mitigates risk. School-aged youth (N = 34,708; 52 % female) of diverse backgrounds (i.e., African American (n = 5333), Asian (n = 392), Hispanic (n = 662), Multiracial (n = 2129), Native American (n = 474), and White (n = 25718) in grades 4-12 provided data on ethnic identity, drug attitudes, and drug use. After controlling for gender and grade, higher ethnic identity was associated with lower past month drug use for African American, Hispanic, and Multiracial youth. Conversely, high ethnic identity was associated with increased risk for White youth. An indirect pathway between ethnic identity, drug attitudes, and drug use was also found for African American, Hispanic, and Asian youth. Among White youth the path model was also significant, but in the opposite direction. These findings confirm the importance of ethnic identity for most minority youth. Further research is needed to better understand the association between ethnic identity and drug use for Multiracial and Hispanic youth, best ways to facilitate healthy ethnic identity development for minority youth, and how to moderate the risk of identity development for White youth.

Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markus, Keith A.

2010-01-01

One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

A systematic review of the effects of poverty deconcentration and urban upgrading on youth violence.

PubMed

Cassidy, Tali; Inglis, Gabrielle; Wiysonge, Charles; Matzopoulos, Richard

2014-03-01

Neighbourhood risk factors have been shown to be associated with youth violence and predictors of youth violence. This systematic review examined the existing evidence for youth violence interventions involving the deconcentration of poverty and urban upgrading. Search strategies combined related terms for youth, violence and a broad combination of terms for the intervention from a range of academic databases and websites. Abstracts were screened by two authors and appraised using a quantitative study assessment tool. Nine studies were included. No strong evidence was available to support diversification as an intervention, some evidence was identified in support of a variety of urban upgrading interventions, while the strongest study designs and demonstrated positive effects were shown for resettlement interventions. The small number of studies meeting the inclusion criteria was ascribed to the methodological complexity of inferring a causal association with 'upstream' interventions. No studies from low and middle income countries satisfied the inclusion criteria. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development of causal reasoning.

PubMed

Kuhn, Deanna

2012-05-01

How do inference rules for causal learning themselves change developmentally? A model of the development of causal reasoning must address this question, as well as specify the inference rules. Here, the evidence for developmental changes in processes of causal reasoning is reviewed, with the distinction made between diagnostic causal inference and causal prediction. Also addressed is the paradox of a causal reasoning literature that highlights the competencies of young children and the proneness to error among adults. WIREs Cogn Sci 2012, 3:327-335. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1160 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Learning a theory of causality.

PubMed

Goodman, Noah D; Ullman, Tomer D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2011-01-01

The very early appearance of abstract knowledge is often taken as evidence for innateness. We explore the relative learning speeds of abstract and specific knowledge within a Bayesian framework and the role for innate structure. We focus on knowledge about causality, seen as a domain-general intuitive theory, and ask whether this knowledge can be learned from co-occurrence of events. We begin by phrasing the causal Bayes nets theory of causality and a range of alternatives in a logical language for relational theories. This allows us to explore simultaneous inductive learning of an abstract theory of causality and a causal model for each of several causal systems. We find that the correct theory of causality can be learned relatively quickly, often becoming available before specific causal theories have been learned--an effect we term the blessing of abstraction. We then explore the effect of providing a variety of auxiliary evidence and find that a collection of simple perceptual input analyzers can help to bootstrap abstract knowledge. Together, these results suggest that the most efficient route to causal knowledge may be to build in not an abstract notion of causality but a powerful inductive learning mechanism and a variety of perceptual supports. While these results are purely computational, they have implications for cognitive development, which we explore in the conclusion.

Why are Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms Comorbid in Youth? A Multi-Wave, Longitudinal Examination of Competing Etiological Models

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joseph R.; Young, Jami, F.; Gibb, Brandon E.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Abela, John R. Z.

2014-01-01

Background The present study sought to clarify the development of comorbid emotional distress by comparing different explanations for how youth develop anxiety and depressive symptoms. Specifically, we introduced the diathesis-anxiety approach (whether cognitive vulnerabilities interact with anxiety symptoms), and compared it to a causal model (anxiety symptoms predicting depressive symptoms), and a correlated liabilities model (whether cognitive vulnerabilities interacted with stressors to predict both anxiety and depressive symptoms) to examine which model best explained the relation between depressive and anxiety symptoms in youth. Methods 678 3rd (n=208), 6th (n=245), and 9th (n=225) grade girls (n=380) and boys (n=298) completed self-report measures at baseline assessing cognitive vulnerabilities (rumination and self-criticism), stressors, depressive and anxiety symptoms. Every 3 months over the next 18 months, youth completed follow-up measures of symptoms and stressors. Results While limited support was found for a causal (p > .10) or correlated-liability model (p > .05) for comorbidity, findings did support a diathesis-anxiety approach for both self-criticism (t(2494) = 3.36, p < .001) and rumination (t(2505) = 2.40, p < .05). Limitations The present study’s findings are based on self-report measure and makes inferences concerning comorbidity with a community sample. Conclusions These results may help clarify past research concerning comorbidity by introducing a diathesis-anxiety approach as a viable model to understand which youth are most at-risk for developing comorbid emotional distress. PMID:24751303

Causality discovery technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

2012-11-01

Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

Perceived Flavored Smokeless Tobacco Ease-of-use and Youth Susceptibility.

PubMed

Chaffee, Benjamin W; Urata, Janelle; Couch, Elizabeth T; Gansky, Stuart A

2017-07-01

Beliefs that flavored smokeless tobacco (ST) is more pleasant, less potent, or otherwise easier to use could contribute to youth initiation. We evaluated associations between perceived ease-of-use of flavored ST (moist snuff and chewing tobacco) and ST initiation susceptibility in a representative sample of US youth. Among 7,718 tobacco never-users in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study (age: 12-17; collected: 2013-2014), we compared 4 ST susceptibility items (curiosity, expectation, willingness to try, and a composite) according to whether participants reported flavored ST to be "easier to use" than unflavored ST. We calculated marginal prevalences of ST susceptibility and odds ratios adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics, tobacco advertisement receptivity, warning label exposure, and sensation seeking. ST susceptibility was greatest among tobacco never-users who perceived flavored ST as easier to use. Adjusted odds of potential ST susceptibility (≥1 item) were 1.5-fold higher (95% confidence interval: 1.2, 1.8) among adolescents who perceived flavored ST as easier to use than unflavored ST. ST flavors could contribute to perceptions that facilitate youth initiation. Alternatively, youth susceptible to ST use may perceive flavored varieties differently. Prospective studies are warranted to strengthen causal evidence and measure ST initiation according to perceived ease-of-use.

Reasoning with Causal Cycles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rehder, Bob

2017-01-01

This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models (CGMs) have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new…

The Risks We Are Willing to Take: Youth Civic Development in "Postwar" Guatemala

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bellino, Michelle J.

2015-01-01

In this article, Michelle J. Bellino explores contrasting approaches to civic education in two rural schools serving indigenous Maya youth in post-civil war Guatemala. Through comparative ethnography, she examines how youth civic pathways intersect with legacies of authoritarianism while young people shape their identity as members of historically…

.Network analytics for adverse outcome pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) organize toxicological knowledge from the molecular level up to the population level, providing evidence-based causal linkages at each step. The AOPWiki serves as a repository of AOPs. With the international adoption of the AOP framework, the AOPw...

Child Welfare-Involved Youth with Intellectual Disabilities: Pathways into and Placements in Foster Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slayter, Elspeth; Springer, Cheryl

2011-01-01

Existing literature suggests that youth with intellectual disabilities are at increased risk for child maltreatment. Little is known about youth with intellectual disabilities who are supervised by child welfare authorities or living in foster care. Reasons for child welfare system involvement and placement types are explored. In this…

Pathways to Prosperity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Symonds, William C.

2012-01-01

Symonds, director of the Pathways to Prosperity Project, asserts that the current U.S. system of preparing students for successful adult lives fails too many youth. Citing data showing that only 40 percent of young Americans earn an associate's or bachelor's degree by age 27--and that many employers say they see candidates who don't have…

Network Mendelian randomization: using genetic variants as instrumental variables to investigate mediation in causal pathways

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Daniel, Rhian M; Butterworth, Adam S; Thompson, Simon G

2015-01-01

Background: Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants, assumed to be instrumental variables for a particular exposure, to estimate the causal effect of that exposure on an outcome. If the instrumental variable criteria are satisfied, the resulting estimator is consistent even in the presence of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. Methods: We extend the Mendelian randomization paradigm to investigate more complex networks of relationships between variables, in particular where some of the effect of an exposure on the outcome may operate through an intermediate variable (a mediator). If instrumental variables for the exposure and mediator are available, direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated, for example using either a regression-based method or structural equation models. The direction of effect between the exposure and a possible mediator can also be assessed. Methods are illustrated in an applied example considering causal relationships between body mass index, C-reactive protein and uric acid. Results: These estimators are consistent in the presence of unmeasured confounding if, in addition to the instrumental variable assumptions, the effects of both the exposure on the mediator and the mediator on the outcome are homogeneous across individuals and linear without interactions. Nevertheless, a simulation study demonstrates that even considerable heterogeneity in these effects does not lead to bias in the estimates. Conclusions: These methods can be used to estimate direct and indirect causal effects in a mediation setting, and have potential for the investigation of more complex networks between multiple interrelated exposures and disease outcomes. PMID:25150977

Applying an ecological framework to understand transition pathways to post-secondary education for youth with physical disabilities.

PubMed

Lindsay, Sally; Duncanson, Michelle; Niles-Campbell, Nadia; McDougall, Carolyn; Diederichs, Sara; Menna-Dack, Dolly

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the experiences of youth with physical disabilities and clinicians who support them in their transition to post-secondary education (PSE). Most research on transition to PSE has focused on youth with intellectual disabilities while there is a lack of research on youth with physical disabilities. This study drew on 30 interviews with 20 youth with disabilities and 10 clinicians. We used Bronfrenbrenner's ecological framework to inform our analysis. Our results showed that there are several important individual skills that youth need to be successful in transitioning to PSE. Youth with disabilities experienced supports from peers and family that influence their transition to PSE. Several disability-specific issues (e.g., coping, self-care, disclosure, and accommodations) were often a barrier to transitioning to PSE. Clinicians and youth both reported that improved inter-professional collaboration and inter-agency partnerships were needed to enhance the transition experience. Societal attitudes (stigma and discrimination), policies, and the timing of transitions also influence youth's transition. Applying an ecological approach helped to provide a more holistic perspective of the PSE transitions and emphasizes the need to consider more than just preparing individuals but also where they are transitioned. Implications for rehabilitation Clinicians and educators should continue to promote the development of relevant life skills (e.g., self-advocacy, disclosure, and navigating public transportation) that youth need to succeed in post-secondary education. Clinicians should continue to educate and support youth regarding the process for disclosing their condition and how to request and set up accommodations in PSE. Clinicians should connect youth with disabilities to appropriate resources that can support them and continue to help them to set career goals and develop career plans. There is a critical need for improved inter

Causal discovery in the geosciences-Using synthetic data to learn how to interpret results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebert-Uphoff, Imme; Deng, Yi

2017-02-01

Causal discovery algorithms based on probabilistic graphical models have recently emerged in geoscience applications for the identification and visualization of dynamical processes. The key idea is to learn the structure of a graphical model from observed spatio-temporal data, thus finding pathways of interactions in the observed physical system. Studying those pathways allows geoscientists to learn subtle details about the underlying dynamical mechanisms governing our planet. Initial studies using this approach on real-world atmospheric data have shown great potential for scientific discovery. However, in these initial studies no ground truth was available, so that the resulting graphs have been evaluated only by whether a domain expert thinks they seemed physically plausible. The lack of ground truth is a typical problem when using causal discovery in the geosciences. Furthermore, while most of the connections found by this method match domain knowledge, we encountered one type of connection for which no explanation was found. To address both of these issues we developed a simulation framework that generates synthetic data of typical atmospheric processes (advection and diffusion). Applying the causal discovery algorithm to the synthetic data allowed us (1) to develop a better understanding of how these physical processes appear in the resulting connectivity graphs, and thus how to better interpret such connectivity graphs when obtained from real-world data; (2) to solve the mystery of the previously unexplained connections.

Causal-explanatory pluralism: How intentions, functions, and mechanisms influence causal ascriptions.

PubMed

Lombrozo, Tania

2010-12-01

Both philosophers and psychologists have argued for the existence of distinct kinds of explanations, including teleological explanations that cite functions or goals, and mechanistic explanations that cite causal mechanisms. Theories of causation, in contrast, have generally been unitary, with dominant theories focusing either on counterfactual dependence or on physical connections. This paper argues that both approaches to causation are psychologically real, with different modes of explanation promoting judgments more or less consistent with each approach. Two sets of experiments isolate the contributions of counterfactual dependence and physical connections in causal ascriptions involving events with people, artifacts, or biological traits, and manipulate whether the events are construed teleologically or mechanistically. The findings suggest that when events are construed teleologically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to counterfactual dependence and relatively insensitive to the presence of physical connections, but when events are construed mechanistically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to both counterfactual dependence and physical connections. The conclusion introduces an account of causation, an "exportable dependence theory," that provides a way to understand the contributions of physical connections and teleology in terms of the functions of causal ascriptions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowing Who Dunnit: Infants Identify the Causal Agent in an Unseen Causal Interaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saxe, Rebecca; Tzelnic, Tania; Carey, Susan

2007-01-01

Preverbal infants can represent the causal structure of events, including distinguishing the agentive and receptive roles and categorizing entities according to stable causal dispositions. This study investigated how infants combine these 2 kinds of causal inference. In Experiments 1 and 2, 9.5-month-olds used the position of a human hand or a…

Climate change and mental health: a causal pathways framework.

PubMed

Berry, Helen Louise; Bowen, Kathryn; Kjellstrom, Tord

2010-04-01

Climate change will bring more frequent, long lasting and severe adverse weather events and these changes will affect mental health. We propose an explanatory framework to enhance consideration of how these effects may operate and to encourage debate about this important aspect of the health impacts of climate change. Literature review. Climate change may affect mental health directly by exposing people to trauma. It may also affect mental health indirectly, by affecting (1) physical health (for example, extreme heat exposure causes heat exhaustion in vulnerable people, and associated mental health consequences) and (2) community wellbeing. Within community, wellbeing is a sub-process in which climate change erodes physical environments which, in turn, damage social environments. Vulnerable people and places, especially in low-income countries, will be particularly badly affected. Different aspects of climate change may affect mental health through direct and indirect pathways, leading to serious mental health problems, possibly including increased suicide mortality. We propose that it is helpful to integrate these pathways in an explanatory framework, which may assist in developing public health policy, practice and research.

Structure and Strength in Causal Induction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2005-01-01

We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

Investigating Causality Between Interacting Brain Areas with Multivariate Autoregressive Models of MEG Sensor Data

PubMed Central

Michalareas, George; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Paterson, Gavin; Gross, Joachim

2013-01-01

Abstract In this work, we investigate the feasibility to estimating causal interactions between brain regions based on multivariate autoregressive models (MAR models) fitted to magnetoencephalographic (MEG) sensor measurements. We first demonstrate the theoretical feasibility of estimating source level causal interactions after projection of the sensor-level model coefficients onto the locations of the neural sources. Next, we show with simulated MEG data that causality, as measured by partial directed coherence (PDC), can be correctly reconstructed if the locations of the interacting brain areas are known. We further demonstrate, if a very large number of brain voxels is considered as potential activation sources, that PDC as a measure to reconstruct causal interactions is less accurate. In such case the MAR model coefficients alone contain meaningful causality information. The proposed method overcomes the problems of model nonrobustness and large computation times encountered during causality analysis by existing methods. These methods first project MEG sensor time-series onto a large number of brain locations after which the MAR model is built on this large number of source-level time-series. Instead, through this work, we demonstrate that by building the MAR model on the sensor-level and then projecting only the MAR coefficients in source space, the true casual pathways are recovered even when a very large number of locations are considered as sources. The main contribution of this work is that by this methodology entire brain causality maps can be efficiently derived without any a priori selection of regions of interest. Hum Brain Mapp, 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:22328419

Implementation and reporting of causal mediation analysis in 2015: a systematic review in epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Liu, Shao-Hsien; Ulbricht, Christine M; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Lapane, Kate L

2016-07-20

Causal mediation analysis is often used to understand the impact of variables along the causal pathway of an occurrence relation. How well studies apply and report the elements of causal mediation analysis remains unknown. We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies published in 2015 that employed causal mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of observed associations between an exposure on an outcome. We identified potential epidemiological studies through conducting a citation search within Web of Science and a keyword search within PubMed. Two reviewers independently screened studies for eligibility. For eligible studies, one reviewer performed data extraction, and a senior epidemiologist confirmed the extracted information. Empirical application and methodological details of the technique were extracted and summarized. Thirteen studies were eligible for data extraction. While the majority of studies reported and identified the effects of measures, most studies lacked sufficient details on the extent to which identifiability assumptions were satisfied. Although most studies addressed issues of unmeasured confounders either from empirical approaches or sensitivity analyses, the majority did not examine the potential bias arising from the measurement error of the mediator. Some studies allowed for exposure-mediator interaction and only a few presented results from models both with and without interactions. Power calculations were scarce. Reporting of causal mediation analysis is varied and suboptimal. Given that the application of causal mediation analysis will likely continue to increase, developing standards of reporting of causal mediation analysis in epidemiological research would be prudent.

A Causal and Mediation Analysis of the Comorbidity Between Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).

PubMed

Sokolova, Elena; Oerlemans, Anoek M; Rommelse, Nanda N; Groot, Perry; Hartman, Catharina A; Glennon, Jeffrey C; Claassen, Tom; Heskes, Tom; Buitelaar, Jan K

2017-06-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are often comorbid. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationships between ASD and ADHD symptoms by applying causal modeling. We used a large phenotypic data set of 417 children with ASD and/or ADHD, 562 affected and unaffected siblings, and 414 controls, to infer a structural equation model using a causal discovery algorithm. Three distinct pathways between ASD and ADHD were identified: (1) from impulsivity to difficulties with understanding social information, (2) from hyperactivity to stereotypic, repetitive behavior, (3) a pairwise pathway between inattention, difficulties with understanding social information, and verbal IQ. These findings may inform future studies on understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms behind the overlap between ASD and ADHD.

Connecticut Postsecondary Pathways for Opportunity Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Youth Policy Forum, 2015

2015-01-01

Pathways to Postsecondary Opportunities are the range of options created across education institutions, training providers, and community-­based organizations so that each and every young person can access the necessary and personally relevant credentials, skills, and training beyond the completion of a secondary credential that will propel…

Creating Pathways to Employment: The Role of Youth/industry Partnerships in Preparing Low-Income Youth and Young Adults for Careers in High-Demand Industries. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grobe, Terry; Martin, Nancy; Steinberg, Adria

2015-01-01

The National Fund for Workforce Solutions and Jobs for the Future, with support from the Rockefeller Foundation, launched the Youth/Industry Partnership Initiative (YIPI), to learn how employer-led industry partnerships could addressing the crisis of youth unemployment--7 percent of American youth (age 16-24) are neither in school or…

Causality and headache triggers

PubMed Central

Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

2013-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

Reasoning about Causal Relationships: Inferences on Causal Networks

PubMed Central

Rottman, Benjamin Margolin; Hastie, Reid

2013-01-01

Over the last decade, a normative framework for making causal inferences, Bayesian Probabilistic Causal Networks, has come to dominate psychological studies of inference based on causal relationships. The following causal networks—[X→Y→Z, X←Y→Z, X→Y←Z]—supply answers for questions like, “Suppose both X and Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” or “Suppose you intervene and make Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” In this review, we provide a tutorial for how normatively to calculate these inferences. Then, we systematically detail the results of behavioral studies comparing human qualitative and quantitative judgments to the normative calculations for many network structures and for several types of inferences on those networks. Overall, when the normative calculations imply that an inference should increase, judgments usually go up; when calculations imply a decrease, judgments usually go down. However, two systematic deviations appear. First, people’s inferences violate the Markov assumption. For example, when inferring Z from the structure X→Y→Z, people think that X is relevant even when Y completely mediates the relationship between X and Z. Second, even when people’s inferences are directionally consistent with the normative calculations, they are often not as sensitive to the parameters and the structure of the network as they should be. We conclude with a discussion of productive directions for future research. PMID:23544658

Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Ruiz, Esteban; Giacomini, Flaminia; Brukner, Časlav

2018-01-01

It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B ). Here, we develop a framework for "dynamics of causal structures," i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B , via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A . We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

Causality and causal inference in epidemiology: the need for a pluralistic approach

PubMed Central

Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Broadbent, Alex; Pearce, Neil

2016-01-01

Abstract Causal inference based on a restricted version of the potential outcomes approach reasoning is assuming an increasingly prominent place in the teaching and practice of epidemiology. The proposed concepts and methods are useful for particular problems, but it would be of concern if the theory and practice of the complete field of epidemiology were to become restricted to this single approach to causal inference. Our concerns are that this theory restricts the questions that epidemiologists may ask and the study designs that they may consider. It also restricts the evidence that may be considered acceptable to assess causality, and thereby the evidence that may be considered acceptable for scientific and public health decision making. These restrictions are based on a particular conceptual framework for thinking about causality. In Section 1, we describe the characteristics of the restricted potential outcomes approach (RPOA) and show that there is a methodological movement which advocates these principles, not just for solving particular problems, but as ideals for which epidemiology as a whole should strive. In Section 2, we seek to show that the limitation of epidemiology to one particular view of the nature of causality is problematic. In Section 3, we argue that the RPOA is also problematic with regard to the assessment of causality. We argue that it threatens to restrict study design choice, to wrongly discredit the results of types of observational studies that have been very useful in the past and to damage the teaching of epidemiological reasoning. Finally, in Section 4 we set out what we regard as a more reasonable ‘working hypothesis’ as to the nature of causality and its assessment: pragmatic pluralism. PMID:26800751

Redundant variables and Granger causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelini, L.; de Tommaso, M.; Marinazzo, D.; Nitti, L.; Pellicoro, M.; Stramaglia, S.

2010-03-01

We discuss the use of multivariate Granger causality in presence of redundant variables: the application of the standard analysis, in this case, leads to under estimation of causalities. Using the un-normalized version of the causality index, we quantitatively develop the notions of redundancy and synergy in the frame of causality and propose two approaches to group redundant variables: (i) for a given target, the remaining variables are grouped so as to maximize the total causality and (ii) the whole set of variables is partitioned to maximize the sum of the causalities between subsets. We show the application to a real neurological experiment, aiming to a deeper understanding of the physiological basis of abnormal neuronal oscillations in the migraine brain. The outcome by our approach reveals the change in the informational pattern due to repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulations.

Pathway of protection: Ethnic identity, self-esteem, and substance use among multiracial youth.

PubMed

Fisher, Sycarah; Zapolski, Tamika C B; Sheehan, Chelsea; Barnes-Najor, Jessica

2017-09-01

Fifty percent of adolescents have tried an illicit drug and 70% have tried alcohol by the end of high school, with even higher rates among multiracial youth. Ethnic identity is a protective factor against substance use for minority groups. However, little is known about the mechanisms that facilitate its protective effects, and even less is known about this relationship for multiracial youth. The purpose of the present study was to examine the protective effect of ethnic identity on substance use and to determine whether this relationship operated indirectly through self-esteem, a strong predictor of substance use for among adolescent populations. Participants included 468 multiracial youth in grades six through 12 (53% female). The results found that ethnic identity was indeed related to substance use, partially through changes in self-esteem. Findings from this study contribute to our understanding and development of models of risk and protection for an understudied population. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Pathway of Protection: Ethnic Identity, Self-Esteem, and Substance Use among Multiracial Youth

PubMed Central

Fisher, Sycarah; Zapolski, Tamika C. B.; Sheehan, Chelsea; Barnes-Najor, Jessica

2018-01-01

Fifty percent of adolescents have tried an illicit drug and 70% have tried alcohol by the end of high school, with even higher rates among multiracial youth. Ethnic identity is a protective factor against substance use for minority groups. However, little is known about the mechanisms that facilitate its protective effects, and even less is known about this relationship for multiracial youth. The purpose of the present study was to examine the protective effect of ethnic identity on substance use and to determine whether this relationship operated indirectly through self-esteem, a strong predictor of substance use for among adolescent populations. Participants included 468 multiracial youth in grades six through 12 (53% female). The results found that ethnic identity was indeed related to substance use, partially through changes in self-esteem. Findings from this study contribute to our understanding and development of models of risk and protection for an understudied population. PMID:28343088

Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

PubMed

Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

2016-08-01

Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect.

Youth violence prevention comes of age: research, training and future directions.

PubMed

Williams, Kara; Rivera, Lourdes; Neighbours, Robert; Reznik, Vivian

2007-01-01

Youth violence is recognized as a major public health problem in the United States and the world. Over the past ten years, progress has been made in documenting the factors that contribute to violent behavior. Emerging research is deepening our understanding of the individual and societal influences that contribute to and protect against youth violence. However, much work still remains to be done in this field, both in examining potential causes and in designing effective intervention strategies. This chapter highlights specific dimensions of youth violence prevention selected by the authors because these dimensions are the focus of public attention, are emerging as critical issues in the study of youth violence, or have a unique place in the current political and social context. We focus on the developmental pathways to violence, factors that mediate and moderate youth violence, the role of culture and media in youth violence, school-based violence such as school shootings and bullying, and the training of health care professionals.

Causality and causal inference in epidemiology: the need for a pluralistic approach.

PubMed

Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Broadbent, Alex; Pearce, Neil

2016-12-01

Causal inference based on a restricted version of the potential outcomes approach reasoning is assuming an increasingly prominent place in the teaching and practice of epidemiology. The proposed concepts and methods are useful for particular problems, but it would be of concern if the theory and practice of the complete field of epidemiology were to become restricted to this single approach to causal inference. Our concerns are that this theory restricts the questions that epidemiologists may ask and the study designs that they may consider. It also restricts the evidence that may be considered acceptable to assess causality, and thereby the evidence that may be considered acceptable for scientific and public health decision making. These restrictions are based on a particular conceptual framework for thinking about causality. In Section 1, we describe the characteristics of the restricted potential outcomes approach (RPOA) and show that there is a methodological movement which advocates these principles, not just for solving particular problems, but as ideals for which epidemiology as a whole should strive. In Section 2, we seek to show that the limitation of epidemiology to one particular view of the nature of causality is problematic. In Section 3, we argue that the RPOA is also problematic with regard to the assessment of causality. We argue that it threatens to restrict study design choice, to wrongly discredit the results of types of observational studies that have been very useful in the past and to damage the teaching of epidemiological reasoning. Finally, in Section 4 we set out what we regard as a more reasonable 'working hypothesis' as to the nature of causality and its assessment: pragmatic pluralism. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Experimental test of nonlocal causality

PubMed Central

Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G.; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

2016-01-01

Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell’s local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

Causal inference in public health.

PubMed

Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

2013-01-01

Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

Causal conditionals and counterfactuals

PubMed Central

Frosch, Caren A.; Byrne, Ruth M.J.

2012-01-01

Causal counterfactuals e.g., ‘if the ignition key had been turned then the car would have started’ and causal conditionals e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ are understood by thinking about multiple possibilities of different sorts, as shown in six experiments using converging evidence from three different types of measures. Experiments 1a and 1b showed that conditionals that comprise enabling causes, e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ primed people to read quickly conjunctions referring to the possibility of the enabler occurring without the outcome, e.g., ‘the ignition key was turned and the car did not start’. Experiments 2a and 2b showed that people paraphrased causal conditionals by using causal or temporal connectives (because, when), whereas they paraphrased causal counterfactuals by using subjunctive constructions (had…would have). Experiments 3a and 3b showed that people made different inferences from counterfactuals presented with enabling conditions compared to none. The implications of the results for alternative theories of conditionals are discussed. PMID:22858874

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: Deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stagg, Camille L.; Schoolmaster, Donald; Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: 1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, 2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and 3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a drought or a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands.

PubMed

Stagg, Camille L; Schoolmaster, Donald R; Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H

2017-08-01

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate-change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: (1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, (2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and (3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to drought and sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal

Causal Discovery of Dynamic Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voortman, Mark

2010-01-01

Recently, several philosophical and computational approaches to causality have used an interventionist framework to clarify the concept of causality [Spirtes et al., 2000, Pearl, 2000, Woodward, 2005]. The characteristic feature of the interventionist approach is that causal models are potentially useful in predicting the effects of manipulations.…

Youth-Adult Partnerships and Youth Identity Style.

PubMed

Ramey, Heather L; Rose-Krasnor, Linda; Lawford, Heather L

2017-02-01

Youth-adult partnerships (e.g., youth leading programs, participating as members of advisory boards) are a common and widely recommended practice in youth work and youth-serving program settings. Although researchers have suggested that these opportunities contribute to youth's identity development, empirical evidence is lacking. In the current study, we tested associations between identity style and degree of youth voice, collaborative youth-adult relationships, and youth's program engagement in 194 youth participating in youth-adult partnerships (M age  = 17.6, 62 % female). We found that these characteristics of youth-adult partnerships predicted higher informational identity style, although only program engagement emerged as a unique predictor. Furthermore, exploratory analysis indicated that these associations were moderated by the type of organization. The findings suggest the need for more research on the multiple dimensions of youth-adult partnerships and their association with youth functioning, as well as pointing to the importance of the broader organizational context of youth-adult partnerships.

The Mediation Formula: A Guide to the Assessment of Causal Pathways in Nonlinear Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-27

through (25), (26) and (27), rather than going through (23) ( van der Laan and Rubin, 2006). 29 values, though disparities in parameters may not...graphs. Epidemiology 22 378–381. Petersen, M., Sinisi, S. and van der Laan, M. (2006). Estimation of direct causal effects. Epidemiology 17 276–284...and J. Halpern, eds.). College Publications, UK, 415–444. van der Laan, M. J. and Rubin, D. (2006). Targeted maximum likelihood learning. The

Experimental Approaches to Systematic Discovery and Development of Reproductive Adverse Outcome Pathways in Fish

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are conceptual frameworks that portray causal and predictive linkages between key events at multiple scales of biological organization that connect molecular initiating events and early cellular perturbations (e.g., initiation of toxicity pathways)...

Experimental verification of an indefinite causal order

PubMed Central

Rubino, Giulia; Rozema, Lee A.; Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Zeuner, Jonas M.; Procopio, Lorenzo M.; Brukner, Časlav; Walther, Philip

2017-01-01

Investigating the role of causal order in quantum mechanics has recently revealed that the causal relations of events may not be a priori well defined in quantum theory. Although this has triggered a growing interest on the theoretical side, creating processes without a causal order is an experimental task. We report the first decisive demonstration of a process with an indefinite causal order. To do this, we quantify how incompatible our setup is with a definite causal order by measuring a “causal witness.” This mathematical object incorporates a series of measurements that are designed to yield a certain outcome only if the process under examination is not consistent with any well-defined causal order. In our experiment, we perform a measurement in a superposition of causal orders—without destroying the coherence—to acquire information both inside and outside of a “causally nonordered process.” Using this information, we experimentally determine a causal witness, demonstrating by almost 7 SDs that the experimentally implemented process does not have a definite causal order. PMID:28378018

Culturally Responsive Work with Indigenous Children and Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fulcher, Leon C.

2012-01-01

Educators and practitioners carry heavy obligations of responsibility for identifying knowledge and skills needed to assist those seeking to chart Response Ability Pathways toward reclaiming children, young people, and families who face some of society's greatest challenges. Teachers, social workers, and youth workers require dedicated education…

A Review of the Literature on Native Hawaiian Youth and Drug Use: Implications for Research and Practice

PubMed Central

Edwards, Christopher; Giroux, Danielle; Okamoto, Scott K.

2010-01-01

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the recent literature on Native Hawaiian youth and substance use. Eight-hundred and twelve potential articles pertaining to Native Hawaiian youth and substance use published between 1995 to May 2009 were identified through an exhaustive literature search. The total number of articles was reduced to 32 articles, which were systematically coded and content analyzed. The findings indicated that the majority of studies focused on epidemiology, with relatively few of them focused on causal factors/etiology and systematic program development or evaluation. Gender differences in drug use were highlighted in several studies. Implications for culturally-tailored interventions and future research are discussed. PMID:20737343

Fast Identification of Biological Pathways Associated with a Quantitative Trait Using Group Lasso with Overlaps

PubMed Central

Silver, Matt; Montana, Giovanni

2012-01-01

Where causal SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) tend to accumulate within biological pathways, the incorporation of prior pathways information into a statistical model is expected to increase the power to detect true associations in a genetic association study. Most existing pathways-based methods rely on marginal SNP statistics and do not fully exploit the dependence patterns among SNPs within pathways. We use a sparse regression model, with SNPs grouped into pathways, to identify causal pathways associated with a quantitative trait. Notable features of our “pathways group lasso with adaptive weights” (P-GLAW) algorithm include the incorporation of all pathways in a single regression model, an adaptive pathway weighting procedure that accounts for factors biasing pathway selection, and the use of a bootstrap sampling procedure for the ranking of important pathways. P-GLAW takes account of the presence of overlapping pathways and uses a novel combination of techniques to optimise model estimation, making it fast to run, even on whole genome datasets. In a comparison study with an alternative pathways method based on univariate SNP statistics, our method demonstrates high sensitivity and specificity for the detection of important pathways, showing the greatest relative gains in performance where marginal SNP effect sizes are small. PMID:22499682

Causal biological network database: a comprehensive platform of causal biological network models focused on the pulmonary and vascular systems

PubMed Central

Boué, Stéphanie; Talikka, Marja; Westra, Jurjen Willem; Hayes, William; Di Fabio, Anselmo; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K.; Sewer, Alain; Fields, Brett; Ansari, Sam; Martin, Florian; Veljkovic, Emilija; Kenney, Renee; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hoeng, Julia

2015-01-01

With the wealth of publications and data available, powerful and transparent computational approaches are required to represent measured data and scientific knowledge in a computable and searchable format. We developed a set of biological network models, scripted in the Biological Expression Language, that reflect causal signaling pathways across a wide range of biological processes, including cell fate, cell stress, cell proliferation, inflammation, tissue repair and angiogenesis in the pulmonary and cardiovascular context. This comprehensive collection of networks is now freely available to the scientific community in a centralized web-based repository, the Causal Biological Network database, which is composed of over 120 manually curated and well annotated biological network models and can be accessed at http://causalbionet.com. The website accesses a MongoDB, which stores all versions of the networks as JSON objects and allows users to search for genes, proteins, biological processes, small molecules and keywords in the network descriptions to retrieve biological networks of interest. The content of the networks can be visualized and browsed. Nodes and edges can be filtered and all supporting evidence for the edges can be browsed and is linked to the original articles in PubMed. Moreover, networks may be downloaded for further visualization and evaluation. Database URL: http://causalbionet.com PMID:25887162

Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

2018-05-01

The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

Critical Action as a Pathway to Social Mobility among Marginalized Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapa, Luke J.; Diemer, Matthew A.; Bañales, Josefina

2018-01-01

Marginalized youth's development occurs in contexts rife with racialized, gendered, and socioeconomic social identity threats and barriers to social mobility. An emergent line of inquiry suggests critical action--a component of critical consciousness, defined as engaging in individual or collective social action to produce social change--may…

Youth Participation in Youth Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kothari, Roshani

Frequently, adults organize and implement youth projects without involving youth in the process. However, youth should be involved in problem identification and program design because they understand the needs of their peers and how to reach them effectively. This paper examines youth participation as a process for bringing about effective youth…

Youth mental health after civil war: the importance of daily stressors

PubMed Central

Newnham, Elizabeth A.; Pearson, Rebecca M.; Stein, Alan; Betancourt, Theresa S.

2015-01-01

Background Recent evidence suggests that post-conflict stressors in addition to war trauma play an important role in the development of psychopathology. Aims To investigate whether daily stressors mediate the association between war exposure and symptoms of post-traumatic stress and depression among war-affected youth. Method Standardised assessments were conducted with 363 Sierra Leonean youth (26.7% female, mean age 20.9, s.d. = 3.38) 6 years post-war. Results The extent of war exposures was significantly associated with post-traumatic stress symptoms (P<0.05) and a significant proportion was explained by indirect pathways through daily stressors (0.089, 95% CI 0.04–0.138, P<0.001). In contrast, there was little evidence for an association from war exposure to depression scores (P = 0.127); rather any association was explained via indirect pathways through daily stressors (0.103, 95% CI 0.048–0.158, P<0.001). Conclusions Among war-affected youth, the association between war exposure and psychological distress was largely mediated by daily stressors, which have potential for modification with evidence-based intervention. PMID:25497299

Youth mental health after civil war: the importance of daily stressors.

PubMed

Newnham, Elizabeth A; Pearson, Rebecca M; Stein, Alan; Betancourt, Theresa S

2015-02-01

Recent evidence suggests that post-conflict stressors in addition to war trauma play an important role in the development of psychopathology. To investigate whether daily stressors mediate the association between war exposure and symptoms of post-traumatic stress and depression among war-affected youth. Standardised assessments were conducted with 363 Sierra Leonean youth (26.7% female, mean age 20.9, s.d. = 3.38) 6 years post-war. The extent of war exposures was significantly associated with post-traumatic stress symptoms (P<0.05) and a significant proportion was explained by indirect pathways through daily stressors (0.089, 95% CI 0.04-0.138, P<0.001). In contrast, there was little evidence for an association from war exposure to depression scores (P = 0.127); rather any association was explained via indirect pathways through daily stressors (0.103, 95% CI 0.048-0.158, P<0.001). Among war-affected youth, the association between war exposure and psychological distress was largely mediated by daily stressors, which have potential for modification with evidence-based intervention. Royal College of Psychiatrists.

Simultaneous quantification of neuroactive dopamine serotonin and kynurenine pathway metabolites in gender-specific youth urine by ultra performance liquid chromatography tandem high resolution mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Lu, Haihua; Yu, Jing; Wang, Jun; Wu, Linlin; Xiao, Hang; Gao, Rong

2016-04-15

Neuroactive metabolites in dopamine, serotonin and kynurenine metabolic pathways play key roles in several physiological processes and their imbalances have been implicated in the pathophysiology of a wide range of disorders. The association of these metabolites' alterations with various pathologies has raised interest in analytical methods for accurate quantification in biological fluids. However, simultaneous measurement of various neuroactive metabolites represents great challenges due to their trace level, high polarity and instability. In this study, an analytical method was developed and validated for accurately quantifying 12 neuroactive metabolites covering three metabolic pathways in youth urine by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray tandem high resolution mass spectrometry (UPLC-ESI-HRMS/MS). The strategy of dansyl chloride derivatization followed by solid phase extraction on C18 cartridges were employed to reduce matrix interference and improve the extraction efficiency. The reverse phase chromatographic separation was achieved with a gradient elution program in 20 min. The high resolution mass spectrometer (Q Exactive) was employed, with confirmation and quantification by Target-MS/MS scan mode. Youth urine samples collected from 100 healthy volunteers (Female:Male=1:1) were analyzed to explore the differences in metabolite profile and their turnover between genders. The results demonstrated that the UPLC-ESI-HRMS/MS method is sensitive and robust, suitable for monitoring a large panel of metabolites and for discovering new biomarkers in the medical fields. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum correlations with no causal order

PubMed Central

Oreshkov, Ognyan; Costa, Fabio; Brukner, Časlav

2012-01-01

The idea that events obey a definite causal order is deeply rooted in our understanding of the world and at the basis of the very notion of time. But where does causal order come from, and is it a necessary property of nature? Here, we address these questions from the standpoint of quantum mechanics in a new framework for multipartite correlations that does not assume a pre-defined global causal structure but only the validity of quantum mechanics locally. All known situations that respect causal order, including space-like and time-like separated experiments, are captured by this framework in a unified way. Surprisingly, we find correlations that cannot be understood in terms of definite causal order. These correlations violate a 'causal inequality' that is satisfied by all space-like and time-like correlations. We further show that in a classical limit causal order always arises, which suggests that space-time may emerge from a more fundamental structure in a quantum-to-classical transition. PMID:23033068

Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

2013-03-01

Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

Assessing the Impact of Drug Use and Drug Selling on Violent Offending in a Panel of Delinquent Youth

PubMed Central

Phillips, Matthew D.

2016-01-01

Despite a vast number of empirical studies arguing for or against a causal relationship between illegal drug use and selling and violent behavior, the debate continues. In part this is due to methodological weaknesses of previous research. Using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, the current study seeks to improve on prior research designs to allow for a more precise examination of the mechanisms that lead from an individual’s drug use (chiefly, marijuana use in the current sample) and drug selling to violent action. Results will allow for greater confidence in making causal inference regarding a long-standing concern in the discipline. PMID:26889079

Postsecondary Student Persistence and Pathways: Evidence from the YITS-A in Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Childs, Stephen E.; Finnie, Ross; Martinello, Felice

2017-01-01

The Youth in Transition Survey is used to follow the postsecondary education (PSE) pathways and outcomes of Canadian youth over the mid 2000s. Students starting at community colleges and four year universities are analyzed separately. First program outcomes are reported, showing the proportions of students who leave their first programs but remain…

Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review.

PubMed

Haber, Noah; Smith, Emily R; Moscoe, Ellen; Andrews, Kathryn; Audy, Robin; Bell, Winnie; Brennan, Alana T; Breskin, Alexander; Kane, Jeremy C; Karra, Mahesh; McClure, Elizabeth S; Suarez, Elizabeth A

2018-01-01

The pathway from evidence generation to consumption contains many steps which can lead to overstatement or misinformation. The proliferation of internet-based health news may encourage selection of media and academic research articles that overstate strength of causal inference. We investigated the state of causal inference in health research as it appears at the end of the pathway, at the point of social media consumption. We screened the NewsWhip Insights database for the most shared media articles on Facebook and Twitter reporting about peer-reviewed academic studies associating an exposure with a health outcome in 2015, extracting the 50 most-shared academic articles and media articles covering them. We designed and utilized a review tool to systematically assess and summarize studies' strength of causal inference, including generalizability, potential confounders, and methods used. These were then compared with the strength of causal language used to describe results in both academic and media articles. Two randomly assigned independent reviewers and one arbitrating reviewer from a pool of 21 reviewers assessed each article. We accepted the most shared 64 media articles pertaining to 50 academic articles for review, representing 68% of Facebook and 45% of Twitter shares in 2015. Thirty-four percent of academic studies and 48% of media articles used language that reviewers considered too strong for their strength of causal inference. Seventy percent of academic studies were considered low or very low strength of inference, with only 6% considered high or very high strength of causal inference. The most severe issues with academic studies' causal inference were reported to be omitted confounding variables and generalizability. Fifty-eight percent of media articles were found to have inaccurately reported the question, results, intervention, or population of the academic study. We find a large disparity between the strength of language as presented to the

Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review

PubMed Central

Smith, Emily R.; Moscoe, Ellen; Audy, Robin; Bell, Winnie; Brennan, Alana T.; Breskin, Alexander; Kane, Jeremy C.; Suarez, Elizabeth A.

2018-01-01

Background The pathway from evidence generation to consumption contains many steps which can lead to overstatement or misinformation. The proliferation of internet-based health news may encourage selection of media and academic research articles that overstate strength of causal inference. We investigated the state of causal inference in health research as it appears at the end of the pathway, at the point of social media consumption. Methods We screened the NewsWhip Insights database for the most shared media articles on Facebook and Twitter reporting about peer-reviewed academic studies associating an exposure with a health outcome in 2015, extracting the 50 most-shared academic articles and media articles covering them. We designed and utilized a review tool to systematically assess and summarize studies’ strength of causal inference, including generalizability, potential confounders, and methods used. These were then compared with the strength of causal language used to describe results in both academic and media articles. Two randomly assigned independent reviewers and one arbitrating reviewer from a pool of 21 reviewers assessed each article. Results We accepted the most shared 64 media articles pertaining to 50 academic articles for review, representing 68% of Facebook and 45% of Twitter shares in 2015. Thirty-four percent of academic studies and 48% of media articles used language that reviewers considered too strong for their strength of causal inference. Seventy percent of academic studies were considered low or very low strength of inference, with only 6% considered high or very high strength of causal inference. The most severe issues with academic studies’ causal inference were reported to be omitted confounding variables and generalizability. Fifty-eight percent of media articles were found to have inaccurately reported the question, results, intervention, or population of the academic study. Conclusions We find a large disparity between the

Causal capture effects in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

PubMed

Matsuno, Toyomi; Tomonaga, Masaki

2017-01-01

Extracting a cause-and-effect structure from the physical world is an important demand for animals living in dynamically changing environments. Human perceptual and cognitive mechanisms are known to be sensitive and tuned to detect and interpret such causal structures. In contrast to rigorous investigations of human causal perception, the phylogenetic roots of this perception are not well understood. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the susceptibility of nonhuman animals to mechanical causality by testing whether chimpanzees perceived an illusion called causal capture (Scholl & Nakayama, 2002). Causal capture is a phenomenon in which a type of bistable visual motion of objects is perceived as causal collision due to a bias from a co-occurring causal event. In our experiments, we assessed the susceptibility of perception of a bistable stream/bounce motion event to a co-occurring causal event in chimpanzees. The results show that, similar to in humans, causal "bounce" percepts were significantly increased in chimpanzees with the addition of a task-irrelevant causal bounce event that was synchronously presented. These outcomes suggest that the perceptual mechanisms behind the visual interpretation of causal structures in the environment are evolutionarily shared between human and nonhuman animals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring causal perception: connections to representational momentum?

PubMed

Choi, Hoon; Scholl, Brian J

2006-01-01

In a collision between two objects, we can perceive not only low-level properties, such as color and motion, but also the seemingly high-level property of causality. It has proven difficult, however, to measure causal perception in a quantitatively rigorous way which goes beyond perceptual reports. Here we focus on the possibility of measuring perceived causality using the phenomenon of representational momentum (RM). Recent studies suggest a relationship between causal perception and RM, based on the fact that RM appears to be attenuated for causally 'launched' objects. This is explained by appeal to the visual expectation that a 'launched' object is inert and thus should eventually cease its movement after a collision, without a source of self-propulsion. We first replicated these demonstrations, and then evaluated this alleged connection by exploring RM for different types of displays, including the contrast between causal launching and non-causal 'passing'. These experiments suggest that the RM-attenuation effect is not a pure measure of causal perception, but rather may reflect lower-level spatiotemporal correlates of only some causal displays. We conclude by discussing the strengths and pitfalls of various methods of measuring causal perception.

Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

PubMed

Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

2012-09-01

Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards graphical causal structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulsson, K. Johan

2012-12-01

Folowing recent work by R. Spekkens, M. Leifer and B. Coecke we investigate causal settings in a limited categorical version of the conditional density operator formalism. We particularly show how the compact structure for causal and acausal settings apply on the measurements of stabiliser theory.

Youth unemployment and functional somatic symptoms in adulthood: results from the Northern Swedish cohort.

PubMed

Brydsten, Anna; Hammarström, Anne; Strandh, Mattias; Johansson, Klara

2015-10-01

Little is known about the possible long-term health consequences of youth unemployment. Research indicates that unemployment may lead to socioeconomic downward mobility and mental health problems, but we still lack knowledge of the long-term health consequences of youth unemployment. This article examines the potential long-term association between youth unemployment and functional somatic symptoms in adulthood. The 'Northern Swedish cohort' was used with data from five data collections, from 1981 (age 16) until 2007 (age 42). Youth unemployment was measured as months in unemployment between age 16 and 21, and health outcome as functional somatic symptoms (an index of 10 items of self-reported symptoms). Linear regression was used to analyse the relationship between months in youth unemployment and functional somatic symptoms at age 21 and age 42, stratified for women and men and adjusted for potential confounders, such as time spent in education at age 21 and later unemployment between age 21 and 42. Youth unemployment was significantly related to functional somatic symptoms at age 21 for men after controlling for confounders, but not for women. Among men, the association remained for functional somatic symptoms at age 42, after controlling for confounders. Adolescence seems to be a sensitive period during which unemployment could have remaining health effects in adulthood, at least for men, though assumptions of causality are tentative and more research is needed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

University Students' Causal Conceptions about Social Mobility: Diverging Pathways for Believers in Personal Merit and Luck

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shane, Jacob; Heckhausen, Jutta

2013-01-01

Many college students hold ambitious goals for upward social mobility via post-college careers. However, in the current economic recession such optimistic expectations are not a given. The present study examines how college students' current social status and beliefs in causal factors for socioeconomic status (SES) attainment lead to diverging…

Healthier students are better learners: a missing link in school reforms to close the achievement gap.

PubMed

Basch, Charles E

2011-10-01

This article provides an introduction to the October 2011 special issue of the Journal of School Health on "Healthier Students Are Better Learners." Literature was reviewed and synthesized to identify health problems affecting school-aged youth that are highly prevalent, disproportionately affect urban minority youth, directly and indirectly causally affect academic achievement, and can be feasibly and effectively addressed through school health programs and services. Based on these criteria, 7 educationally relevant health disparities were selected as strategic priorities to help close the achievement gap: (1) vision, (2) asthma, (3) teen pregnancy, (4) aggression and violence, (5) physical activity, (6) breakfast, and (7) inattention and hyperactivity. Research clearly shows that these health problems influence students' motivation and ability to learn. Disparities among urban minority youth are outlined, along with the causal pathways through which each adversely affects academic achievement, including sensory perceptions, cognition, school connectedness, absenteeism, and dropping out. Evidence-based approaches that schools can implement to address these problems are presented. These health problems and the causal pathways they influence have interactive and a synergistic effect, which is why they must be addressed collectively using a coordinated approach. No matter how well teachers are prepared to teach, no matter what accountability measures are put in place, no matter what governing structures are established for schools, educational progress will be profoundly limited if students are not motivated and able to learn. Particular health problems play a major role in limiting the motivation and ability to learn of urban minority youth. This is why reducing these disparities through a coordinated approach warrants validation as a cohesive school improvement initiative to close the achievement gap. Local, state, and national policies for implementing this

Can Joined-Up Data Lead to Joined-Up Thinking? The Western Australian Developmental Pathways Project

PubMed Central

Stanley, Fiona; Glauert, Rebecca; McKenzie, Anne; O'Donnell, Melissa

2011-01-01

Modern societies are challenged by “wicked problems” – by definition, those that are difficult to define, multi-causal and hard to treat. Problems such as low birth weight, obesity, mental ill health, teenage pregnancy, educational difficulties and juvenile crime fit this category. Given the complex nature of these problems, they require the best data in order to measure them, guide policy frameworks and evaluate whether the steps taken to address them are actually making a difference. What such problems really require are joined-up approaches to enable effective solutions. In this paper, we describe a unique initiative to encourage a more preventive, whole-of-government approach to these problems – the Developmental Pathways Project, which has enabled the linkage of a large number of de-identified administrative databases in order to explore the pathways into and out of the negative outcomes affecting our children and youth. This project has not only enabled the linkage of agency data, but also of agency personnel, in order to improve and promote cross-agency research, policy and preventive solutions. Through the use of these linkages we are attempting to shift the paradigm to encourage agencies to appreciate that these “wicked problems” demand a preventive approach, as well as the provision of effective services for those already affected. PMID:24933374

Principal stratification in causal inference.

PubMed

Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

2002-03-01

Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

Children's Counterfactual Reasoning About Causally Overdetermined Events.

PubMed

Nyhout, Angela; Henke, Lena; Ganea, Patricia A

2017-08-07

In two experiments, one hundred and sixty-two 6- to 8-year-olds were asked to reason counterfactually about events with different causal structures. All events involved overdetermined outcomes in which two different causal events led to the same outcome. In Experiment 1, children heard stories with either an ambiguous causal relation between events or causally unrelated events. Children in the causally unrelated version performed better than chance and better than those in the ambiguous condition. In Experiment 2, children heard stories in which antecedent events were causally connected or causally disconnected. Eight-year-olds performed above chance in both conditions, whereas 6-year-olds performed above chance only in the connected condition. This work provides the first evidence that children can reason counterfactually in causally overdetermined contexts by age 8. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Antisocial Behavior, Psychopathic Features and Abnormalities in Reward and Punishment Processing in Youth

PubMed Central

Byrd, Amy L.; Loeber, Rolf; Pardini, Dustin A.

2017-01-01

A better understanding of what leads youth to initially engage in antisocial behavior (ASB) and more importantly persist with such behaviors into adulthood has significant implications for prevention and intervention efforts. A considerable number of studies using behavioral and neuroimaging techniques have investigated abnormalities in reward and punishment processing as potential causal mechanisms underlying ASB. However, this literature has yet to be critically evaluated, and there are no comprehensive reviews that systematically examine and synthesize these findings. The goal of the present review is twofold. The first aim is to examine the extent to which youth with ASB are characterized by abnormalities in (1) reward processing; (2) punishment processing; or (3) both reward and punishment processing. The second aim is to evaluate whether aberrant reward and/or punishment processing is specific to or most pronounced in a subgroup of antisocial youth with psychopathic features. Studies utilizing behavioral methods are first reviewed, followed by studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging. An integration of theory and research across multiple levels of analysis is presented in order to provide a more comprehensive understanding of reward and punishment processing in antisocial youth. Findings are discussed in terms of developmental and contextual considerations, proposed future directions and implications for intervention. PMID:24357109

Pathways to the Future: A Longitudinal Study of Young Americans. Preliminary Report: Youth and the Labor Market--1979.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borus, Michael E.; And Others

This monograph presents preliminary cross-tabulation analyses of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Labor Market Experience of 12,693 youth of ages 14-21 who will be interviewed annually for at least five years. (Hispanic; non-Hispanic black; and non-Hispanic, non-black, poor youth were oversampled.) Each of the twenty-four topics…

The impact of human development on individual health: a causal mediation analysis examining pathways through education and body mass index.

PubMed

Wang, Aolin; Arah, Onyebuchi A

2017-01-01

The macro environment we live in projects what we can achieve and how we behave, and in turn, shapes our health in complex ways. Policymaking will benefit from insights into the mechanisms underlying how national socioeconomic context affects health. This study examined the impact of human development on individual health and the possible mediating roles of education and body mass index (BMI). We analyzed World Health Survey data on 109,448 participants aged 25 or older from 42 low- and middle-income countries with augmented human development index (HDI) in 1990. We used principal components method to create a health score based on measures from eight health state domains, used years of schooling as education indicator and calculated BMI from self-reported height and weight. We used causal mediation analysis technique with random intercepts to account for the multilevel structure. Below a reference HDI level of 0.48, HDI was negatively associated with good health (total effect at HDI of 0.23: b  =  - 3.44, 95% CI [-6.39--0.49] for males and b  =  - 5.16, 95% CI [-9.24,--1.08] for females) but was positively associated with good health above this reference level (total effect at HDI of 0.75: b  = 4.16, 95% CI [-0.33-8.66] for males and b  = 6.62, 95% CI [0.85-12.38] for females). We found a small positive effect of HDI on health via education across reference HDI levels ( b ranging from 0.24 to 0.29 for males and 0.40 to 0.49 for females) but not via pathways involving BMI only. Human development has a non-linear effect on individual health, but the impact appears to be mainly through pathways other than education and BMI.

Life Strain, Social Control, Social Learning, and Delinquency: The Effects of Gender, Age, and Family SES Among Chinese Adolescents.

PubMed

Bao, Wan-Ning; Haas, Ain; Xie, Yunping

2016-09-01

Very few studies have examined the pathways to delinquency and causal factors for demographic subgroups of adolescents in a different culture. This article explores the effects of gender, age, and family socioeconomic status (SES) in an integrated model of strain, social control, social learning, and delinquency among a sample of Chinese adolescents. ANOVA is used to check for significant differences between categories of demographic groups on the variables in the integrated model, and the differential effects of causal factors in the theoretical path models are examined. Further tests of interaction effects are conducted to compare path coefficients between "high-risk" youths (i.e., male, mid-teen, and low family SES adolescents) and other subgroups. The findings identified similar pathways to delinquency across subgroups and clarified the salience of causal factors for male, mid-teen, and low SES adolescents in a different cultural context. © The Author(s) 2015.

Exploring individual differences in preschoolers' causal stance.

PubMed

Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E

2016-03-01

Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In this study, we explored the coherence and short-term stability of individual differences in children's causal stance. We also began to investigate the origins of this variability, focusing particularly on the potential role of mothers' explanatory talk in shaping the causal stance of their children. Two measures of causal stance correlated with each other, as well as themselves across time. Both also revealed internal consistency of response. The strength of children's causal stance also correlated with mother's responses on the same tasks and the frequency with which mothers emphasized causality during naturalistic joint activities with their children. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Granger causality for state-space models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K.

2015-04-01

Granger causality has long been a prominent method for inferring causal interactions between stochastic variables for a broad range of complex physical systems. However, it has been recognized that a moving average (MA) component in the data presents a serious confound to Granger causal analysis, as routinely performed via autoregressive (AR) modeling. We solve this problem by demonstrating that Granger causality may be calculated simply and efficiently from the parameters of a state-space (SS) model. Since SS models are equivalent to autoregressive moving average models, Granger causality estimated in this fashion is not degraded by the presence of a MA component. This is of particular significance when the data has been filtered, downsampled, observed with noise, or is a subprocess of a higher dimensional process, since all of these operations—commonplace in application domains as diverse as climate science, econometrics, and the neurosciences—induce a MA component. We show how Granger causality, conditional and unconditional, in both time and frequency domains, may be calculated directly from SS model parameters via solution of a discrete algebraic Riccati equation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that Granger causality estimators thus derived have greater statistical power and smaller bias than AR estimators. We also discuss how the SS approach facilitates relaxation of the assumptions of linearity, stationarity, and homoscedasticity underlying current AR methods, thus opening up potentially significant new areas of research in Granger causal analysis.

Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning.

PubMed

Bright, Aimée K; Feeney, Aidan

2014-06-01

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children's inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey→predator) or diagnostic (predator→prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children's inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Theory-Based Causal Induction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2009-01-01

Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in scientific inference, statistics, and machine learning. It is also a central part of human learning, and a task that people perform remarkably well given its notorious difficulties. People can learn causal structure in various settings, from diverse forms of data: observations…

The Relationships between Mothers' Work Pathways and Physical and Mental Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frech, Adrianne; Damaske, Sarah

2012-01-01

We contribute to research on the relationships between gender, work, and health by using longitudinal, theoretically driven models of mothers' diverse work pathways and adjusting for unequal selection into these pathways. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Youth-1979 (N = 2,540), we find full-time, continuous employment following a first…

Designing Effective Supports for Causal Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jonassen, David H.; Ionas, Ioan Gelu

2008-01-01

Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and…

The selective power of causality on memory errors.

PubMed

Marsh, Jessecae K; Kulkofsky, Sarah

2015-01-01

We tested the influence of causal links on the production of memory errors in a misinformation paradigm. Participants studied a set of statements about a person, which were presented as either individual statements or pairs of causally linked statements. Participants were then provided with causally plausible and causally implausible misinformation. We hypothesised that studying information connected with causal links would promote representing information in a more abstract manner. As such, we predicted that causal information would not provide an overall protection against memory errors, but rather would preferentially help in the rejection of misinformation that was causally implausible, given the learned causal links. In two experiments, we measured whether the causal linkage of information would be generally protective against all memory errors or only selectively protective against certain types of memory errors. Causal links helped participants reject implausible memory lures, but did not protect against plausible lures. Our results suggest that causal information may promote an abstract storage of information that helps prevent only specific types of memory errors.

MDRC Research on Career Pathways. Issue Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kazis, Richard

2016-01-01

As postsecondary credentials have become increasingly important to accessing higher-quality employment, a growing number of education and workforce programs are implementing "career pathways" approaches to help both youth and adults prepare for further education and better jobs. In recent years, the Manpower Demonstration Research…

The relationship of family characteristics and bipolar disorder using causal-pie models.

PubMed

Chen, Y-C; Kao, C-F; Lu, M-K; Yang, Y-K; Liao, S-C; Jang, F-L; Chen, W J; Lu, R-B; Kuo, P-H

2014-01-01

Many family characteristics were reported to increase the risk of bipolar disorder (BPD). The development of BPD may be mediated through different pathways, involving diverse risk factor profiles. We evaluated the associations of family characteristics to build influential causal-pie models to estimate their contributions on the risk of developing BPD at the population level. We recruited 329 clinically diagnosed BPD patients and 202 healthy controls to collect information in parental psychopathology, parent-child relationship, and conflict within family. Other than logistic regression models, we applied causal-pie models to identify pathways involved with different family factors for BPD. The risk of BPD was significantly increased with parental depression, neurosis, anxiety, paternal substance use problems, and poor relationship with parents. Having a depressed mother further predicted early onset of BPD. Additionally, a greater risk for BPD was observed with higher numbers of paternal/maternal psychopathologies. Three significant risk profiles were identified for BPD, including paternal substance use problems (73.0%), maternal depression (17.6%), and through poor relationship with parents and conflict within the family (6.3%). Our findings demonstrate that different aspects of family characteristics elicit negative impacts on bipolar illness, which can be utilized to target specific factors to design and employ efficient intervention programs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Causal biological network database: a comprehensive platform of causal biological network models focused on the pulmonary and vascular systems.

PubMed

Boué, Stéphanie; Talikka, Marja; Westra, Jurjen Willem; Hayes, William; Di Fabio, Anselmo; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K; Sewer, Alain; Fields, Brett; Ansari, Sam; Martin, Florian; Veljkovic, Emilija; Kenney, Renee; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

2015-01-01

With the wealth of publications and data available, powerful and transparent computational approaches are required to represent measured data and scientific knowledge in a computable and searchable format. We developed a set of biological network models, scripted in the Biological Expression Language, that reflect causal signaling pathways across a wide range of biological processes, including cell fate, cell stress, cell proliferation, inflammation, tissue repair and angiogenesis in the pulmonary and cardiovascular context. This comprehensive collection of networks is now freely available to the scientific community in a centralized web-based repository, the Causal Biological Network database, which is composed of over 120 manually curated and well annotated biological network models and can be accessed at http://causalbionet.com. The website accesses a MongoDB, which stores all versions of the networks as JSON objects and allows users to search for genes, proteins, biological processes, small molecules and keywords in the network descriptions to retrieve biological networks of interest. The content of the networks can be visualized and browsed. Nodes and edges can be filtered and all supporting evidence for the edges can be browsed and is linked to the original articles in PubMed. Moreover, networks may be downloaded for further visualization and evaluation. Database URL: http://causalbionet.com © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Causal network analysis of head and neck keloid tissue identifies potential master regulators.

PubMed

Garcia-Rodriguez, Laura; Jones, Lamont; Chen, Kang Mei; Datta, Indrani; Divine, George; Worsham, Maria J

2016-10-01

To generate novel insights and hypotheses in keloid development from potential master regulators. Prospective cohort. Six fresh keloid and six normal skin samples from 12 anonymous donors were used in a prospective cohort study. Genome-wide profiling was done previously on the cohort using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip (Illumina, San Diego, CA). The 190 statistically significant CpG islands between keloid and normal tissue mapped to 152 genes (P < .05). The top 10 statistically significant genes (VAMP5, ACTR3C, GALNT3, KCNAB2, LRRC61, SCML4, SYNGR1, TNS1, PLEKHG5, PPP1R13-α, false discovery rate <.015) were uploaded into the Ingenuity Pathway Analysis software's Causal Network Analysis (QIAGEN, Redwood City, CA). To reflect expected gene expression direction in the context of methylation changes, the inverse of the methylation ratio from keloid versus normal tissue was used for the analysis. Causal Network Analysis identified disease-specific master regulator molecules based on downstream differentially expressed keloid-specific genes and expected directionality of expression (hypermethylated vs. hypomethylated). Causal Network Analysis software identified four hierarchical networks that included four master regulators (pyroxamide, tributyrin, PRKG2, and PENK) and 19 intermediate regulators. Causal Network Analysis of differentiated methylated gene data of keloid versus normal skin demonstrated four causal networks with four master regulators. These hierarchical networks suggest potential driver roles for their downstream keloid gene targets in the pathogenesis of the keloid phenotype, likely triggered due to perturbation/injury to normal tissue. NA Laryngoscope, 126:E319-E324, 2016. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Exploratory Causal Analysis in Bivariate Time Series Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCracken, James M.

Many scientific disciplines rely on observational data of systems for which it is difficult (or impossible) to implement controlled experiments and data analysis techniques are required for identifying causal information and relationships directly from observational data. This need has lead to the development of many different time series causality approaches and tools including transfer entropy, convergent cross-mapping (CCM), and Granger causality statistics. In this thesis, the existing time series causality method of CCM is extended by introducing a new method called pairwise asymmetric inference (PAI). It is found that CCM may provide counter-intuitive causal inferences for simple dynamics with strong intuitive notions of causality, and the CCM causal inference can be a function of physical parameters that are seemingly unrelated to the existence of a driving relationship in the system. For example, a CCM causal inference might alternate between ''voltage drives current'' and ''current drives voltage'' as the frequency of the voltage signal is changed in a series circuit with a single resistor and inductor. PAI is introduced to address both of these limitations. Many of the current approaches in the times series causality literature are not computationally straightforward to apply, do not follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, depend on assumed models for the time series generating process, or rely on embedding procedures. A new approach, called causal leaning, is introduced in this work to avoid these issues. The leaning is found to provide causal inferences that agree with intuition for both simple systems and more complicated empirical examples, including space weather data sets. The leaning may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. A practicing analyst can explore the literature to find many proposals for identifying drivers and causal connections in times series data

Assessment of the population-level effectiveness of the Avahan HIV-prevention programme in South India: a preplanned, causal-pathway-based modelling analysis.

PubMed

Pickles, Michael; Boily, Marie-Claude; Vickerman, Peter; Lowndes, Catherine M; Moses, Stephen; Blanchard, James F; Deering, Kathleen N; Bradley, Janet; Ramesh, Banadakoppa M; Washington, Reynold; Adhikary, Rajatashuvra; Mainkar, Mandar; Paranjape, Ramesh S; Alary, Michel

2013-11-01

Avahan, the India AIDS initiative of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, was a large-scale, targeted HIV prevention intervention. We aimed to assess its overall effectiveness by estimating the number and proportion of HIV infections averted across Avahan districts, following the causal pathway of the intervention. We created a mathematical model of HIV transmission in high-risk groups and the general population using data from serial cross-sectional surveys (integrated behavioural and biological assessments, IBBAs) within a Bayesian framework, which we used to reproduce HIV prevalence trends in female sex workers and their clients, men who have sex with men, and the general population in 24 South Indian districts over the first 4 years (2004-07 or 2005-08 dependent on the district) and the full 10 years (2004-13) of the Avahan programme. We tested whether these prevalence trends were more consistent with self-reported increases in consistent condom use after the implementation of Avahan or with a counterfactual (assuming consistent condom use increased at slower, pre-Avahan rates) using a Bayes factor, which gave a measure of the strength of evidence for the effectiveness estimates. Using regression analysis, we extrapolated the prevention effect in the districts covered by IBBAs to all 69 Avahan districts. In 13 of 24 IBBA districts, modelling suggested medium to strong evidence for the large self-reported increase in consistent condom use since Avahan implementation. In the remaining 11 IBBA districts, the evidence was weaker, with consistent condom use generally already high before Avahan began. Roughly 32700 HIV infections (95% credibility interval 17900-61600) were averted over the first 4 years of the programme in the IBBA districts with moderate to strong evidence. Addition of the districts with weaker evidence increased this total to 62800 (32000-118000) averted infections, and extrapolation suggested that 202000 (98300-407000) infections were averted

Different Kinds of Causality in Event Cognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radvansky, Gabriel A.; Tamplin, Andrea K.; Armendarez, Joseph; Thompson, Alexis N.

2014-01-01

Narrative memory is better for information that is more causally connected and occurs at event boundaries, such as a causal break. However, it is unclear whether there are common or distinct influences of causality. For the event boundaries that arise as a result of causal breaks, the events that follow may subsequently become more causally…

Parent and Peer Pathways to Adolescent Delinquency: Variations by Ethnicity and Neighborhood Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deutsch, Arielle R.; Crockett, Lisa J.; Wolff, Jennifer M.; Russell, Stephen T.

2012-01-01

Effects of ethnicity and neighborhood quality often are confounded in research on adolescent delinquent behavior. This study examined the pathways to delinquency among 2,277 African American and 5,973 European American youth residing in high-risk and low-risk neighborhoods. Using data from a national study of youth, a meditational model was tested…

Causal essentialism in kinds.

PubMed

Ahn, Woo-kyoung; Taylor, Eric G; Kato, Daniel; Marsh, Jessecae K; Bloom, Paul

2013-06-01

The current study examines causal essentialism, derived from psychological essentialism of concepts. We examine whether people believe that members of a category share some underlying essence that is both necessary and sufficient for category membership and that also causes surface features. The main claim is that causal essentialism is restricted to categories that correspond to our intuitive notions of existing kinds and hence is more attenuated for categories that are based on arbitrary criteria. Experiments 1 and 3 found that people overtly endorse causal essences in nonarbitrary kinds but are less likely to do so for arbitrary categories. Experiments 2 and 4 found that people were more willing to generalize a member's known causal relations (or lack thereof) when dealing with a kind than when dealing with an arbitrary category. These differences between kinds and arbitrary categories were found across various domains-not only for categories of living things, but also for artefacts. These findings have certain real-world implications, including how people make sense of mental disorders that are treated as real kinds.

Pathways From Depressive Symptoms to Low Social Status

PubMed Central

Agoston, Anna M.; Rudolph, Karen D.

2012-01-01

This research examined two pathways through which depressive symptoms contribute to low social status (i.e., neglect and rejection) within the peer group over time: (a) depressive symptoms promote socially helpless behavior and consequent neglect by peers; and (b) depressive symptoms promote aggressive behavior and consequent rejection by peers. These pathways were investigated in independent samples of youth at two developmental stages: middle childhood (2nd – 4th grade) and early adolescence (5th – 7th grade). In both Study 1 (M age = 7.97, SD = .37; 338 girls, 298 boys) and Study 2 (M age = 11.74, SD = .68; 305 girls, 300 boys), youth and their teachers completed questionnaires at three waves. Multi-group comparison path analyses were conducted to examine sex differences in the models. Consistent with expectations, two pathways emerged through which depressive symptoms undermined subsequent social status. Support was not found for the reverse direction of effect nor for developmental or sex differences in the pathways with one exception: In early adolescence, neglect directly predicted depressive symptoms. These findings suggest specificity but also heterogeneity in the effects of depressive symptoms on social status, and identify behaviors that may be targeted for preventing the persistence of depression and its interpersonal consequences. PMID:22945342

Pathways from depressive symptoms to low social status.

PubMed

Agoston, Anna M; Rudolph, Karen D

2013-02-01

This research examined two pathways through which depressive symptoms contribute to low social status (i.e., neglect and rejection) within the peer group over time: (a) depressive symptoms promote socially helpless behavior and consequent neglect by peers; and (b) depressive symptoms promote aggressive behavior and consequent rejection by peers. These pathways were investigated in independent samples of youth at two developmental stages: middle childhood (2nd-4th grade) and early adolescence (5th-7th grade). In both Study 1 (M age = 7.97, SD = 0.37; 338 girls, 298 boys) and Study 2 (M age = 11.74, SD = 0.68; 305 girls, 300 boys), youth and their teachers completed questionnaires at three waves. Multi-group comparison path analyses were conducted to examine sex differences in the models. Consistent with expectations, two pathways emerged through which depressive symptoms undermined subsequent social status. Support was not found for the reverse direction of effect nor for developmental or sex differences in the pathways with one exception: In early adolescence, neglect directly predicted depressive symptoms. These findings suggest specificity but also heterogeneity in the effects of depressive symptoms on social status, and identify behaviors that may be targeted for preventing the persistence of depression and its interpersonal consequences.

Amodal causal capture in the tunnel effect.

PubMed

Bae, Gi Yeul; Flombaum, Jonathan I

2011-01-01

In addition to identifying individual objects in the world, the visual system must also characterize the relationships between objects, for instance when objects occlude one another or cause one another to move. Here we explored the relationship between perceived causality and occlusion. Can one perceive causality in an occluded location? In several experiments, observers judged whether a centrally presented event involved a single object passing behind an occluder, or one object causally launching another (out of view and behind the occluder). With no additional context, the centrally presented event was typically judged as a non-causal pass, even when the occluding and disoccluding objects were different colors--an illusion known as the 'tunnel effect' that results from spatiotemporal continuity. However, when a synchronized context event involved an unambiguous causal launch, participants perceived a causal launch behind the occluder. This percept of an occluded causal interaction could also be driven by grouping and synchrony cues in the absence of any explicitly causal interaction. These results reinforce the hypothesis that causality is an aspect of perception. It is among the interpretations of the world that are independently available to vision when resolving ambiguity, and that the visual system can 'fill in' amodally.

Expectations and Interpretations during Causal Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luhmann, Christian C.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

2011-01-01

In existing models of causal induction, 4 types of covariation information (i.e., presence/absence of an event followed by presence/absence of another event) always exert identical influences on causal strength judgments (e.g., joint presence of events always suggests a generative causal relationship). In contrast, we suggest that, due to…

Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bandura, Albert

1984-01-01

Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

PubMed

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

Repeated Causal Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savage, Craig

2012-01-01

Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

Kant on causal laws and powers.

PubMed

Henschen, Tobias

2014-12-01

The aim of the paper is threefold. Its first aim is to defend Eric Watkins's claim that for Kant, a cause is not an event but a causal power: a power that is borne by a substance, and that, when active, brings about its effect, i.e. a change of the states of another substance, by generating a continuous flow of intermediate states of that substance. The second aim of the paper is to argue against Watkins that the Kantian concept of causal power is not the pre-critical concept of real ground but the category of causality, and that Kant holds with Hume that causal laws cannot be inferred non-inductively (that he accordingly has no intention to show in the Second analogy or elsewhere that events fall under causal laws). The third aim of the paper is to compare the Kantian position on causality with central tenets of contemporary powers ontology: it argues that unlike the variants endorsed by contemporary powers theorists, the Kantian variants of these tenets are resistant to objections that neo-Humeans raise to these tenets.

Examination of tetrahydrobiopterin pathway genes in autism.

PubMed

Schnetz-Boutaud, N C; Anderson, B M; Brown, K D; Wright, H H; Abramson, R K; Cuccaro, M L; Gilbert, J R; Pericak-Vance, M A; Haines, J L

2009-11-01

Autism is a complex disorder with a high degree of heritability and significant phenotypic and genotypic heterogeneity. Although candidate gene studies and genome-wide screens have failed to identify major causal loci associated with autism, numerous studies have proposed association with several variations in genes in the dopaminergic and serotonergic pathways. Because tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4) is the essential cofactor in the synthesis of these two neurotransmitters, we genotyped 25 SNPs in nine genes of the BH4 pathway in a total of 403 families. Significant nominal association was detected in the gene for 6-pyruvoyl-tetrahydropterin synthase, PTS (chromosome 11), with P = 0.009; this result was not restricted to an affected male-only subset. Multilocus interaction was detected in the BH4 pathway alone, but not across the serotonin, dopamine and BH4 pathways.

Causality and Causal Inference in Social Work: Quantitative and Qualitative Perspectives

PubMed Central

Palinkas, Lawrence A.

2015-01-01

Achieving the goals of social work requires matching a specific solution to a specific problem. Understanding why the problem exists and why the solution should work requires a consideration of cause and effect. However, it is unclear whether it is desirable for social workers to identify cause and effect, whether it is possible for social workers to identify cause and effect, and, if so, what is the best means for doing so. These questions are central to determining the possibility of developing a science of social work and how we go about doing it. This article has four aims: (1) provide an overview of the nature of causality; (2) examine how causality is treated in social work research and practice; (3) highlight the role of quantitative and qualitative methods in the search for causality; and (4) demonstrate how both methods can be employed to support a “science” of social work. PMID:25821393

CADDIS Volume 1. Stressor Identification: About Causal Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An introduction to the history of our approach to causal assessment, A chronology of causal history and philosophy, An introduction to causal history and philosophy, References for the Causal Assessment Background section of Stressor Identification

MIIC online: a web server to reconstruct causal or non-causal networks from non-perturbative data.

PubMed

Sella, Nadir; Verny, Louis; Uguzzoni, Guido; Affeldt, Séverine; Isambert, Hervé

2018-07-01

We present a web server running the MIIC algorithm, a network learning method combining constraint-based and information-theoretic frameworks to reconstruct causal, non-causal or mixed networks from non-perturbative data, without the need for an a priori choice on the class of reconstructed network. Starting from a fully connected network, the algorithm first removes dispensable edges by iteratively subtracting the most significant information contributions from indirect paths between each pair of variables. The remaining edges are then filtered based on their confidence assessment or oriented based on the signature of causality in observational data. MIIC online server can be used for a broad range of biological data, including possible unobserved (latent) variables, from single-cell gene expression data to protein sequence evolution and outperforms or matches state-of-the-art methods for either causal or non-causal network reconstruction. MIIC online can be freely accessed at https://miic.curie.fr. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Diagnostic causal reasoning with verbal information.

PubMed

Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf

2017-08-01

In diagnostic causal reasoning, the goal is to infer the probability of causes from one or multiple observed effects. Typically, studies investigating such tasks provide subjects with precise quantitative information regarding the strength of the relations between causes and effects or sample data from which the relevant quantities can be learned. By contrast, we sought to examine people's inferences when causal information is communicated through qualitative, rather vague verbal expressions (e.g., "X occasionally causes A"). We conducted three experiments using a sequential diagnostic inference task, where multiple pieces of evidence were obtained one after the other. Quantitative predictions of different probabilistic models were derived using the numerical equivalents of the verbal terms, taken from an unrelated study with different subjects. We present a novel Bayesian model that allows for incorporating the temporal weighting of information in sequential diagnostic reasoning, which can be used to model both primacy and recency effects. On the basis of 19,848 judgments from 292 subjects, we found a remarkably close correspondence between the diagnostic inferences made by subjects who received only verbal information and those of a matched control group to whom information was presented numerically. Whether information was conveyed through verbal terms or numerical estimates, diagnostic judgments closely resembled the posterior probabilities entailed by the causes' prior probabilities and the effects' likelihoods. We observed interindividual differences regarding the temporal weighting of evidence in sequential diagnostic reasoning. Our work provides pathways for investigating judgment and decision making with verbal information within a computational modeling framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental risk, Oxytocin Receptor Gene (OXTR) methylation and youth callous-unemotional traits: a 13-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Cecil, C A M; Lysenko, L J; Jaffee, S R; Pingault, J-B; Smith, R G; Relton, C L; Woodward, G; McArdle, W; Mill, J; Barker, E D

2014-10-01

Youth with high callous-unemotional traits (CU) are at risk for early-onset and persistent conduct problems. Research suggests that there may be different developmental pathways to CU (genetic/constitutional vs environmental), and that the absence or presence of co-occurring internalizing problems is a key marker. However, it is unclear whether such a distinction is valid. Intermediate phenotypes such as DNA methylation, an epigenetic modification regulating gene expression, may help to clarify etiological pathways. This is the first study to examine prospective inter-relationships between environmental risk (prenatal/postnatal) and DNA methylation (birth, age 7 and 9) in the prediction of CU (age 13), for youth low vs high in internalizing problems. We focused on DNA methylation in the vicinity of the oxytocin receptor (OXTR) gene as it has been previously implicated in CU. Participants were 84 youth with early-onset and persistent conduct problems drawn from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. For youth with low internalizing problems (46%), we found that (i) OXTR methylation at birth associated with higher CU (age 13) as well as decreased experience of victimization during childhood (evocative epigenetic-environment correlation; birth-age 7), (ii) higher prenatal parental risks (maternal psychopathology, criminal behaviors, substance use) associated with higher OXTR methylation at birth and (iii) OXTR methylation levels were more stable across time (birth-age 9). In contrast, for youth with high internalizing problems, CU were associated with prenatal risks of an interpersonal nature (that is, intimate partner violence, family conflict) but not OXTR methylation. Findings support the existence of distinct developmental pathways to CU.

Causal inference in economics and marketing.

PubMed

Varian, Hal R

2016-07-05

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

Altered structure-function relations of semantic processing in youths with high-functioning autism: a combined diffusion and functional MRI study.

PubMed

Lo, Yu-Chun; Chou, Tai-Li; Fan, Li-Ying; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Chiu, Yen-Nan; Tseng, Wen-Yih Isaac

2013-12-01

Deficits in language and communication are among the core symptoms of autism, a common neurodevelopmental disorder with long-term impairment. Despite the striking nature of the autistic language impairment, knowledge about its corresponding alterations in the brain is still evolving. We hypothesized that the dual stream language network is altered in autism, and that this alteration could be revealed by changes in the relationships between microstructural integrity and functional activation. The study recruited 20 right-handed male youths with autism and 20 carefully matched individually, typically developing (TD) youths. Microstructural integrity of the left dorsal and left ventral pathways responsible for language processing and the functional activation of the connected brain regions were investigated by using diffusion spectrum imaging and functional magnetic resonance imaging of a semantic task, respectively. Youths with autism had significantly poorer language function, and lower functional activation in left dorsal and left ventral regions of the language network, compared with TD youths. The TD group showed a significant correlation of the functional activation of the left dorsal region with microstructural integrity of the left ventral pathway, whereas the autism group showed a significant correlation of the functional activation of the left ventral region with microstructural integrity of the left dorsal pathway, and moreover verbal comprehension index was correlated with microstructural integrity of the left ventral pathway. These altered structure-function relationships in autism suggest possible involvement of the dual pathways in supporting deficient semantic processing. © 2013 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Income, income inequality and youth smoking in low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Li, David X; Guindon, G Emmanuel

2013-04-01

To examine the relationships between income, income inequality and current smoking among youth in low- and middle-income countries. Pooled cross-sectional data from the Global Youth Tobacco Surveys, conducted in low- and middle-income countries, were used to conduct multi-level logistic analyses that accounted for the nesting of students in schools and of schools in countries. A total of 169 283 students aged 13-15 from 63 low- and middle-income countries. Current smoking was defined as having smoked at least one cigarette in the past 30 days. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was our measure of absolute income. Contemporaneous and lagged (10-year) Gini coefficients, as well as the income share ratio of the top decile of incomes to the bottom decile, were our measures of income inequality. Our analyses reveal a significant positive association between levels of income and youth smoking. We find that a 10% increase in GDP per capita increases the odds of being a current smoker by at least 2.5%, and potentially considerably more. Our analyses also suggest a relationship between the distribution of incomes and youth smoking: youth from countries with more unequal distributions of income tend to have higher odds of currently smoking. There is a positive association between gross domestic product and the odds of a young person in a low- and middle-income country being a current smoker. Given the causal links between smoking and a wide range of youth morbidities, the association between smoking and income inequality may underlie a substantial portion of the health disparities observed that are currently experiencing rapid economic growth. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Cross-national perspectives about weight-based bullying in youth: nature, extent and remedies.

PubMed

Puhl, R M; Latner, J D; O'Brien, K; Luedicke, J; Forhan, M; Danielsdottir, S

2016-08-01

No cross-national studies have examined public perceptions about weight-based bullying in youth. To conduct a multinational examination of public views about (i) the prevalence/seriousness of weight-based bullying in youth; (ii) the role of parents, educators, health providers and government in addressing this problem and (iii) implementing policy actions to reduce weight-based bullying. A cross-sectional survey of adults in the United States, Canada, Iceland and Australia (N = 2866). Across all countries, weight-based bullying was identified as the most prevalent reason for youth bullying, by a substantial margin over other forms of bullying (race/ethnicity, sexual orientation and religion). Participants viewed parents and teachers as playing major roles in efforts to reduce weight-based bullying. Most participants across countries (77-94%) viewed healthcare providers to be important intervention agents. Participants (65-87%) supported government augmentation of anti-bullying laws to include prohibiting weight-based bullying. Women expressed higher agreement for policy actions than men, with no associations found for participants' race/ethnicity or weight. Causal beliefs about obesity were associated with policy support across countries. Across countries, strong recognition exists of weight-based bullying and the need to address it. These findings may inform policy-level actions and clinical practices concerning youth vulnerable to weight-based bullying. © 2015 World Obesity.

Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

PubMed

Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

2016-05-01

The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century. © The Author(s) 2016.

Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

PubMed

Baker, Stuart G

2013-11-10

Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Generalized Causal Quantum Theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmeggiani, Claudio

2007-12-01

We shall show that is always possible to construct causal Quantum Theories fully equivalent (as predictive tools) to acausal, standard Quantum Theory, relativistic or not relativistic; we re-obtain, as a particular case, the usual Quantum Bohmian Theory. Then we consider the measurement process, in causal theories, and we conclude that the state of affairs is not really improved, with respect to standard theories.

Causal inference in economics and marketing

PubMed Central

Varian, Hal R.

2016-01-01

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, X. S.

2017-12-01

Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

Causal learning with local computations.

PubMed

Fernbach, Philip M; Sloman, Steven A

2009-05-01

The authors proposed and tested a psychological theory of causal structure learning based on local computations. Local computations simplify complex learning problems via cues available on individual trials to update a single causal structure hypothesis. Structural inferences from local computations make minimal demands on memory, require relatively small amounts of data, and need not respect normative prescriptions as inferences that are principled locally may violate those principles when combined. Over a series of 3 experiments, the authors found (a) systematic inferences from small amounts of data; (b) systematic inference of extraneous causal links; (c) influence of data presentation order on inferences; and (d) error reduction through pretraining. Without pretraining, a model based on local computations fitted data better than a Bayesian structural inference model. The data suggest that local computations serve as a heuristic for learning causal structure. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Estimating causal effects with a non-paranormal method for the design of efficient intervention experiments

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Knockdown or overexpression of genes is widely used to identify genes that play important roles in many aspects of cellular functions and phenotypes. Because next-generation sequencing generates high-throughput data that allow us to detect genes, it is important to identify genes that drive functional and phenotypic changes of cells. However, conventional methods rely heavily on the assumption of normality and they often give incorrect results when the assumption is not true. To relax the Gaussian assumption in causal inference, we introduce the non-paranormal method to test conditional independence in the PC-algorithm. Then, we present the non-paranormal intervention-calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (NPN-IDA), which incorporates the cumulative nature of effects through a cascaded pathway via causal inference for ranking causal genes against a phenotype with the non-paranormal method for estimating DAGs. Results We demonstrate that causal inference with the non-paranormal method significantly improves the performance in estimating DAGs on synthetic data in comparison with the original PC-algorithm. Moreover, we show that NPN-IDA outperforms the conventional methods in exploring regulators of the flowering time in Arabidopsis thaliana and regulators that control the browning of white adipocytes in mice. Our results show that performance improvement in estimating DAGs contributes to an accurate estimation of causal effects. Conclusions Although the simplest alternative procedure was used, our proposed method enables us to design efficient intervention experiments and can be applied to a wide range of research purposes, including drug discovery, because of its generality. PMID:24980787

Estimating causal effects with a non-paranormal method for the design of efficient intervention experiments.

PubMed

Teramoto, Reiji; Saito, Chiaki; Funahashi, Shin-ichi

2014-06-30

Knockdown or overexpression of genes is widely used to identify genes that play important roles in many aspects of cellular functions and phenotypes. Because next-generation sequencing generates high-throughput data that allow us to detect genes, it is important to identify genes that drive functional and phenotypic changes of cells. However, conventional methods rely heavily on the assumption of normality and they often give incorrect results when the assumption is not true. To relax the Gaussian assumption in causal inference, we introduce the non-paranormal method to test conditional independence in the PC-algorithm. Then, we present the non-paranormal intervention-calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (NPN-IDA), which incorporates the cumulative nature of effects through a cascaded pathway via causal inference for ranking causal genes against a phenotype with the non-paranormal method for estimating DAGs. We demonstrate that causal inference with the non-paranormal method significantly improves the performance in estimating DAGs on synthetic data in comparison with the original PC-algorithm. Moreover, we show that NPN-IDA outperforms the conventional methods in exploring regulators of the flowering time in Arabidopsis thaliana and regulators that control the browning of white adipocytes in mice. Our results show that performance improvement in estimating DAGs contributes to an accurate estimation of causal effects. Although the simplest alternative procedure was used, our proposed method enables us to design efficient intervention experiments and can be applied to a wide range of research purposes, including drug discovery, because of its generality.

Factors affecting academic achievement among sexual minority and gender-variant youth.

PubMed

Poteat, V Paul; Scheer, Jillian R; Mereish, Ethan H

2014-01-01

Experiences of victimization among sexual minority youth (e.g., lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender; LGBT) and gender-variant youth remain pronounced in many schools. Although much work has shown the connection between homophobic bullying and mental and physical health, there has been limited attention to how victimization impedes learning, academic achievement, and other school-related outcomes for these youth. In this chapter, we propose several pathways through which victimization leads to academic disparities among sexual minority and gender-variant youth, with attention to its effects on individual learning processes (e.g., motivation, concentration, self efficacy, and other cognitive stressors) as well as broader psychological and social processes (e.g., mental health, school avoidance, harmful coping strategies, exclusionary discipline). We also consider protective factors (e.g., social support, Gay-Straight Alliances, extracurricular involvement, nondiscrimination policies, inclusive curriculum) that could promote resilience and suggest potential mechanisms by which they may operate. In doing so, we aim to stimulate ideas for an advancement of research in this area.

Sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yip, Paul S F; Zhang, Huiping; Lam, Tai-Hing; Lam, Kwok Fai; Lee, Antoinette Marie; Chan, John; Fan, Susan

2013-07-29

Little is known about sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong. It is of public health importance to investigate this topic to inform sex education, policymaking, and prevention and intervention programs. Based on the Youth Sexuality Survey conducted by Hong Kong Family Planning Association (FPAHK) in 2011, this study explored the characteristics of sexual knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among 1,126 unmarried youth aged 18 to 27 years. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to examine factors associated with unmarried youth's premarital sex, casual relationships, multiple sex partners, and premarital pregnancy. Unmarried youth in Hong Kong had adequate sex knowledge, but contraceptive knowledge was deficient. The majority of unmarried youth (63.8%) held liberal attitudes toward premarital sex and about half held liberal attitudes toward any form of sexual activity and premarital pregnancy. Around 60% held conservative attitudes toward causal sex relationships and multiple sex partners. Males tended to hold more liberal attitudes toward high-risk sex behaviors than female youth. Approximately 41.5% of unmarried youth reported having engaged in premarital sex, whereas less than 10% engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Males also reported higher amounts of premarital sex, casual sex relationships, and multiple sex partners. Females reported higher levels of sexual coercion. Logistic regressions indicated that being older, coming from a divorced family, out of school status and liberal attitudes toward risky sex behavior were more likely to engage in premarital sex or high-risk sex behaviors, and being female, being better educated and being immigrants were less likely to engage in premarital sex. However, being immigrants was more likely to engage in casual relationship and to have multiple partners. Premarital sex is becoming more prevalent among unmarried youth in Hong Kong, and a small

Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castrigiano, Domenico P. L., E-mail: castrig@ma.tum.de; Leiseifer, Andreas D., E-mail: andreas.leiseifer@tum.de

2015-07-15

Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a meremore » consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac’s localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.« less

Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castrigiano, Domenico P. L.; Leiseifer, Andreas D.

2015-07-01

Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac's localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

Causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Keisuke

2014-08-01

We analyze causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. It is known that Gauss-Bonnet gravity potentially has superluminal propagation of gravitons due to its noncanonical kinetic terms. In a theory with superluminal modes, an analysis of causality based on null curves makes no sense, and thus, we need to analyze them in a different way. In this paper, using the method of the characteristics, we analyze the causal structure in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. We have the result that, on a Killing horizon, gravitons can propagate in the null direction tangent to the Killing horizon. Therefore, a Killing horizon can be a causal edge as in the case of general relativity; i.e. a Killing horizon is the "event horizon" in the sense of causality. We also analyze causal structures on nonstationary solutions with (D-2)-dimensional maximal symmetry, including spherically symmetric and flat spaces. If the geometrical null energy condition, RABNANB≥0 for any null vector NA, is satisfied, the radial velocity of gravitons must be less than or equal to that of light. However, if the geometrical null energy condition is violated, gravitons can propagate faster than light. Hence, on an evaporating black hole where the geometrical null energy condition is expected not to hold, classical gravitons can escape from the "black hole" defined with null curves. That is, the causal structures become nontrivial. It may be one of the possible solutions for the information loss paradox of evaporating black holes.

Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

PubMed Central

Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

2014-01-01

Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given. PMID:25505432

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Quantum-coherent mixtures of causal relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maclean, Jean-Philippe W.; Ried, Katja; Spekkens, Robert W.; Resch, Kevin J.

2017-05-01

Understanding the causal influences that hold among parts of a system is critical both to explaining that system's natural behaviour and to controlling it through targeted interventions. In a quantum world, understanding causal relations is equally important, but the set of possibilities is far richer. The two basic ways in which a pair of time-ordered quantum systems may be causally related are by a cause-effect mechanism or by a common-cause acting on both. Here we show a coherent mixture of these two possibilities. We realize this nonclassical causal relation in a quantum optics experiment and derive a set of criteria for witnessing the coherence based on a quantum version of Berkson's effect, whereby two independent causes can become correlated on observation of their common effect. The interplay of causality and quantum theory lies at the heart of challenging foundational puzzles, including Bell's theorem and the search for quantum gravity.

Quantum-coherent mixtures of causal relations

PubMed Central

MacLean, Jean-Philippe W.; Ried, Katja; Spekkens, Robert W.; Resch, Kevin J.

2017-01-01

Understanding the causal influences that hold among parts of a system is critical both to explaining that system's natural behaviour and to controlling it through targeted interventions. In a quantum world, understanding causal relations is equally important, but the set of possibilities is far richer. The two basic ways in which a pair of time-ordered quantum systems may be causally related are by a cause-effect mechanism or by a common-cause acting on both. Here we show a coherent mixture of these two possibilities. We realize this nonclassical causal relation in a quantum optics experiment and derive a set of criteria for witnessing the coherence based on a quantum version of Berkson's effect, whereby two independent causes can become correlated on observation of their common effect. The interplay of causality and quantum theory lies at the heart of challenging foundational puzzles, including Bell's theorem and the search for quantum gravity. PMID:28485394

Quantum-coherent mixtures of causal relations.

PubMed

MacLean, Jean-Philippe W; Ried, Katja; Spekkens, Robert W; Resch, Kevin J

2017-05-09

Understanding the causal influences that hold among parts of a system is critical both to explaining that system's natural behaviour and to controlling it through targeted interventions. In a quantum world, understanding causal relations is equally important, but the set of possibilities is far richer. The two basic ways in which a pair of time-ordered quantum systems may be causally related are by a cause-effect mechanism or by a common-cause acting on both. Here we show a coherent mixture of these two possibilities. We realize this nonclassical causal relation in a quantum optics experiment and derive a set of criteria for witnessing the coherence based on a quantum version of Berkson's effect, whereby two independent causes can become correlated on observation of their common effect. The interplay of causality and quantum theory lies at the heart of challenging foundational puzzles, including Bell's theorem and the search for quantum gravity.

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Unveiling causal activity of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams-García, Rashid V.; Beggs, John M.; Ortiz, Gerardo

2017-07-01

We introduce a novel tool for analyzing complex network dynamics, allowing for cascades of causally-related events, which we call causal webs (c-webs), to be separated from other non-causally-related events. This tool shows that traditionally-conceived avalanches may contain mixtures of spatially-distinct but temporally-overlapping cascades of events, and dynamical disorder or noise. In contrast, c-webs separate these components, unveiling previously hidden features of the network and dynamics. We apply our method to mouse cortical data with resulting statistics which demonstrate for the first time that neuronal avalanches are not merely composed of causally-related events. The original version of this article was uploaded to the arXiv on March 17th, 2016 [1].

Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuipers, Benjamin

The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

Causal Inference in Retrospective Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holland, Paul W.; Rubin, Donald B.

1988-01-01

The problem of drawing causal inferences from retrospective case-controlled studies is considered. A model for causal inference in prospective studies is applied to retrospective studies. Limitations of case-controlled studies are formulated concerning relevant parameters that can be estimated in such studies. A coffee-drinking/myocardial…

Causal Learning with Local Computations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernbach, Philip M.; Sloman, Steven A.

2009-01-01

The authors proposed and tested a psychological theory of causal structure learning based on local computations. Local computations simplify complex learning problems via cues available on individual trials to update a single causal structure hypothesis. Structural inferences from local computations make minimal demands on memory, require…

Leaving the Faith: How Religious Switching Changes Pathways to Adulthood among Conservative Protestant Youth.

PubMed

Glass, Jennifer L; Sutton, April; Fitzgerald, Scott T

2015-06-01

Research revealing associations between conservative Protestantism and lower socioeconomic status is bedeviled by questions of causal inference. Religious switching offers another way to understand the causal ordering of religious participation and demographic markers of class position. In this paper, we look at adolescents who change their religious affiliation across four waves of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and then observe their transition to adulthood using four crucial markers - completed educational attainment, age at first marriage, age at first birth, and income at the final wave. Results show that switching out of a conservative Protestant denomination in adolescence can alter some, but not all, of the negative consequences associated with growing up in a conservative Protestant household. Specifically, family formation is delayed among switchers, but early cessation of education is not.

Leaving the Faith: How Religious Switching Changes Pathways to Adulthood among Conservative Protestant Youth

PubMed Central

Glass, Jennifer L.; Sutton, April; Fitzgerald, Scott T.

2015-01-01

Research revealing associations between conservative Protestantism and lower socioeconomic status is bedeviled by questions of causal inference. Religious switching offers another way to understand the causal ordering of religious participation and demographic markers of class position. In this paper, we look at adolescents who change their religious affiliation across four waves of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and then observe their transition to adulthood using four crucial markers – completed educational attainment, age at first marriage, age at first birth, and income at the final wave. Results show that switching out of a conservative Protestant denomination in adolescence can alter some, but not all, of the negative consequences associated with growing up in a conservative Protestant household. Specifically, family formation is delayed among switchers, but early cessation of education is not. PMID:26322318

Why cachexia kills: examining the causality of poor outcomes in wasting conditions.

PubMed

Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Rhee, Connie; Sim, John J; Stenvinkel, Peter; Anker, Stefan D; Kovesdy, Csaba P

2013-06-01

Weight loss is the hallmark of any progressive acute or chronic disease state. In its extreme form of significant lean body mass (including skeletal muscle) and fat loss, it is referred to as cachexia. It has been known for millennia that muscle and fat wasting leads to poor outcomes including death. On one hand, conditions and risk factors that lead to cachexia and inadequate nutrition may independently lead to increased mortality. Additionaly, cachexia per se, withdrawal of nutritional support in progressive cachexia, and advanced age may lead to death via cachexia-specific pathways. Despite the strong and consistent association of cachexia with mortality, no unifying mechanism has yet been suggested as to why wasting conditions are associated with an exceptionally high mortality risk. Hence, the causality of the cachexia-death association, even though it is biologically plausible, is widely unknown. This century-long uncertainty may have played a role as to why the field of cachexia treatment development has not shown major advances over the past decades. We suggest that cachexia-associated relative thrombocytosis and platelet activation may play a causal role in cachexia-related death, while other mechanisms may also contribute including arrhythmia-associated sudden deaths, endocrine disorders such as hypothyroidism, and immune system compromise leading to infectious events and deaths. Multidimensional research including examining biologically plausible models is urgently needed to investigate the causality of the cachexia-death association.

Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

PubMed

Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

2017-11-30

Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Non-Gaussian Methods for Causal Structure Learning.

PubMed

Shimizu, Shohei

2018-05-22

Causal structure learning is one of the most exciting new topics in the fields of machine learning and statistics. In many empirical sciences including prevention science, the causal mechanisms underlying various phenomena need to be studied. Nevertheless, in many cases, classical methods for causal structure learning are not capable of estimating the causal structure of variables. This is because it explicitly or implicitly assumes Gaussianity of data and typically utilizes only the covariance structure. In many applications, however, non-Gaussian data are often obtained, which means that more information may be contained in the data distribution than the covariance matrix is capable of containing. Thus, many new methods have recently been proposed for using the non-Gaussian structure of data and inferring the causal structure of variables. This paper introduces prevention scientists to such causal structure learning methods, particularly those based on the linear, non-Gaussian, acyclic model known as LiNGAM. These non-Gaussian data analysis tools can fully estimate the underlying causal structures of variables under assumptions even in the presence of unobserved common causes. This feature is in contrast to other approaches. A simulated example is also provided.

Biological indicators of suicide risk in youth with mood disorders: what do we know so far?

PubMed

Lewitzka, Ute; Doucette, Sarah; Seemüller, Florian; Grof, Paul; Duffy, Anne C

2012-12-01

Suicidal behaviour in youth is a major public health concern worldwide, and youth in the early stages of a primary mood disorder are an identifiable high-risk population. Neurobiological research in youth at risk for suicidality has sought to investigate the most promising parameters from research in adults. The present paper provides an overview of the current findings of neurobiological research in children and adolescents with mood disorders and suicidality including genetic/epigenetic findings, neuro-hormonal and immunological investigations. Longitudinal research in high-risk youth is a powerful way to investigate the influences and their pathways in determining suicidal risk in the context of a developing mood disorder. In the meantime, there are clear clinical indicators of risk to help identify youth who would benefit from close surveillance and early intervention.

Understanding Youth STEM Interest Pathways within a Single Community: The "Synergies" Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falk, John H.; Staus, Nancy; Dierking, Lynn D.; Penuel, William; Wyld, Jennifer; Bailey, Deborah

2016-01-01

The dramatic decline in youth interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) during adolescence, both in the USA and internationally, has been a phenomenon of societal concern for several decades. The Synergies project was launched to help deal with this issue. In this paper, we report findings from the first two years of our…

SPV: a JavaScript Signaling Pathway Visualizer.

PubMed

Calderone, Alberto; Cesareni, Gianni

2018-03-24

The visualization of molecular interactions annotated in web resources is useful to offer to users such information in a clear intuitive layout. These interactions are frequently represented as binary interactions that are laid out in free space where, different entities, cellular compartments and interaction types are hardly distinguishable. SPV (Signaling Pathway Visualizer) is a free open source JavaScript library which offers a series of pre-defined elements, compartments and interaction types meant to facilitate the representation of signaling pathways consisting of causal interactions without neglecting simple protein-protein interaction networks. freely available under Apache version 2 license; Source code: https://github.com/Sinnefa/SPV_Signaling_Pathway_Visualizer_v1.0. Language: JavaScript; Web technology: Scalable Vector Graphics; Libraries: D3.js. sinnefa@gmail.com.

Linking parental socialization to interpersonal protective processes, academic self-presentation, and expectations among rural African American youth.

PubMed

Murry, Velma McBride; Berkel, Cady; Brody, Gene H; Miller, Shannon J; Chen, Yi-Fu

2009-01-01

Data obtained from 2 waves of a longitudinal study of 671 rural African American families with an 11-year-old preadolescent were used to examine pathways through which racial and ethnic socialization influence youth self-presentation, academic expectations, and academic anticipation. Structural equation modeling analyses indicated that racial and ethnic socialization were linked with youth expectations for and anticipation of academic success through youth self-pride, which included racial identity and self-esteem, and through academic self-presentation. The results highlight the need to disaggregate racial and ethnic socialization to attain a better understanding of the ways in which these parenting domains uniquely forecast youth self-pride and academic orientation.

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

PubMed Central

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-01-01

Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

PubMed

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-07-24

People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different

Satisfaction with the Health Care Provider and Regimen Adherence in Minority Youth with Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Taylor, Cortney J; La Greca, Annette; Valenzuela, Jessica M; Hsin, Olivia; Delamater, Alan M

2016-09-01

To assess whether satisfaction with the health-care provider is related to regimen adherence among primarily minority youth with type 1 diabetes. Youth with type 1 diabetes (n = 169; M age = 13.88; 52 % female; 70 % Hispanic) and their parents completed questionnaires that assessed their own satisfaction with the health-care provider and youths' adherence to diabetes self-care behaviors. Higher youth and parent patient-provider relationship satisfaction was associated with higher regimen adherence. Gender affected the relationship between satisfaction and regimen adherence, such that for girls, greater satisfaction was associated with better adherence; this was not the case for boys. Patient satisfaction with the health care provider is important for regimen adherence among primarily minority youth with type 1 diabetes, particularly for girls. Future research might focus on improving youths' relationships with their health care providers as a potential pathway to improve regimen adherence.

Causal discovery and inference: concepts and recent methodological advances.

PubMed

Spirtes, Peter; Zhang, Kun

This paper aims to give a broad coverage of central concepts and principles involved in automated causal inference and emerging approaches to causal discovery from i.i.d data and from time series. After reviewing concepts including manipulations, causal models, sample predictive modeling, causal predictive modeling, and structural equation models, we present the constraint-based approach to causal discovery, which relies on the conditional independence relationships in the data, and discuss the assumptions underlying its validity. We then focus on causal discovery based on structural equations models, in which a key issue is the identifiability of the causal structure implied by appropriately defined structural equation models: in the two-variable case, under what conditions (and why) is the causal direction between the two variables identifiable? We show that the independence between the error term and causes, together with appropriate structural constraints on the structural equation, makes it possible. Next, we report some recent advances in causal discovery from time series. Assuming that the causal relations are linear with nonGaussian noise, we mention two problems which are traditionally difficult to solve, namely causal discovery from subsampled data and that in the presence of confounding time series. Finally, we list a number of open questions in the field of causal discovery and inference.

Sufficiency and Necessity Assumptions in Causal Structure Induction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R.

2016-01-01

Research on human causal induction has shown that people have general prior assumptions about causal strength and about how causes interact with the background. We propose that these prior assumptions about the parameters of causal systems do not only manifest themselves in estimations of causal strength or the selection of causes but also when…

Exploring Individual Differences in Preschoolers' Causal Stance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E.

2016-01-01

Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In…

Constraints on Children's Judgments of Magical Causality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woolley, Jacqueline D.; Browne, Cheryl A.; Boerger, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

In 3 studies we addressed the operation of constraints on children's causal judgments. Our primary focus was whether children's beliefs about magical causality, specifically wishing, are constrained by features that govern the attribution of ordinary causality. In Experiment 1, children witnessed situations in which a confederate's wish appeared…

The Development of Causal Categorization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayes, Brett K.; Rehder, Bob

2012-01-01

Two experiments examined the impact of causal relations between features on categorization in 5- to 6-year-old children and adults. Participants learned artificial categories containing instances with causally related features and noncausal features. They then selected the most likely category member from a series of novel test pairs.…

Establishing causal coherence across sentences: an ERP study

PubMed Central

Kuperberg, Gina R.; Paczynski, Martin; Ditman, Tali

2011-01-01

This study examined neural activity associated with establishing causal relationships across sentences during online comprehension. ERPs were measured while participants read and judged the relatedness of three-sentence scenarios in which the final sentence was highly causally related, intermediately related and causally unrelated to its context. Lexico-semantic co-occurrence was matched across the three conditions using a Latent Semantic Analysis. Critical words in causally unrelated scenarios evoked a larger N400 than words in both highly causally related and intermediately related scenarios, regardless of whether they appeared before or at the sentence-final position. At midline sites, the N400 to intermediately related sentence-final words was attenuated to the same degree as to highly causally related words, but otherwise the N400 to intermediately related words fell in between that evoked by highly causally related and intermediately related words. No modulation of the Late Positivity/P600 component was observed across conditions. These results indicate that both simple and complex causal inferences can influence the earliest stages of semantically processing an incoming word. Further, they suggest that causal coherence, at the situation level, can influence incremental word-by-word discourse comprehension, even when semantic relationships between individual words are matched. PMID:20175676

Granger-causality maps of diffusion processes.

PubMed

Wahl, Benjamin; Feudel, Ulrike; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, Matthias; Peinke, Joachim; Freund, Jan A

2016-02-01

Granger causality is a statistical concept devised to reconstruct and quantify predictive information flow between stochastic processes. Although the general concept can be formulated model-free it is often considered in the framework of linear stochastic processes. Here we show how local linear model descriptions can be employed to extend Granger causality into the realm of nonlinear systems. This novel treatment results in maps that resolve Granger causality in regions of state space. Through examples we provide a proof of concept and illustrate the utility of these maps. Moreover, by integration we convert the local Granger causality into a global measure that yields a consistent picture for a global Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Finally, we recover invariance transformations known from the theory of autoregressive processes.

Temporal Information of Directed Causal Connectivity in Multi-Trial ERP Data using Partial Granger Causality.

PubMed

Youssofzadeh, Vahab; Prasad, Girijesh; Naeem, Muhammad; Wong-Lin, KongFatt

2016-01-01

Partial Granger causality (PGC) has been applied to analyse causal functional neural connectivity after effectively mitigating confounding influences caused by endogenous latent variables and exogenous environmental inputs. However, it is not known how this connectivity obtained from PGC evolves over time. Furthermore, PGC has yet to be tested on realistic nonlinear neural circuit models and multi-trial event-related potentials (ERPs) data. In this work, we first applied a time-domain PGC technique to evaluate simulated neural circuit models, and demonstrated that the PGC measure is more accurate and robust in detecting connectivity patterns as compared to conditional Granger causality and partial directed coherence, especially when the circuit is intrinsically nonlinear. Moreover, the connectivity in PGC settles faster into a stable and correct configuration over time. After method verification, we applied PGC to reveal the causal connections of ERP trials of a mismatch negativity auditory oddball paradigm. The PGC analysis revealed a significant bilateral but asymmetrical localised activity in the temporal lobe close to the auditory cortex, and causal influences in the frontal, parietal and cingulate cortical areas, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the time to reach a stable connectivity configuration (~250–300 ms) coincides with the deviation of ensemble ERPs of oddball from standard tones. Finally, using a sliding time window, we showed higher resolution dynamics of causal connectivity within an ERP trial. In summary, time-domain PGC is promising in deciphering directed functional connectivity in nonlinear and ERP trials accurately, and at a sufficiently early stage. This data-driven approach can reduce computational time, and determine the key architecture for neural circuit modeling.

Causal relationships between milk quality and coagulation properties in Italian Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle.

PubMed

Tiezzi, Francesco; Valente, Bruno D; Cassandro, Martino; Maltecca, Christian

2015-05-13

Recently, selection for milk technological traits was initiated in the Italian dairy cattle industry based on direct measures of milk coagulation properties (MCP) such as rennet coagulation time (RCT) and curd firmness 30 min after rennet addition (a30) and on some traditional milk quality traits that are used as predictors, such as somatic cell score (SCS) and casein percentage (CAS). The aim of this study was to shed light on the causal relationships between traditional milk quality traits and MCP. Different structural equation models that included causal effects of SCS and CAS on RCT and a30 and of RCT on a30 were implemented in a Bayesian framework. Our results indicate a non-zero magnitude of the causal relationships between the traits studied. Causal effects of SCS and CAS on RCT and a30 were observed, which suggests that the relationship between milk coagulation ability and traditional milk quality traits depends more on phenotypic causal pathways than directly on common genetic influence. While RCT does not seem to be largely controlled by SCS and CAS, some of the variation in a30 depends on the phenotypes of these traits. However, a30 depends heavily on coagulation time. Our results also indicate that, when direct effects of SCS, CAS and RCT are considered simultaneously, most of the overall genetic variability of a30 is mediated by other traits. This study suggests that selection for RCT and a30 should not be performed on correlated traits such as SCS or CAS but on direct measures because the ability of milk to coagulate is improved through the causal effect that the former play on the latter, rather than from a common source of genetic variation. Breaking the causal link (e.g. standardizing SCS or CAS before the milk is processed into cheese) would reduce the impact of the improvement due to selective breeding. Since a30 depends heavily on RCT, the relative emphasis that is put on this trait should be reconsidered and weighted for the fact that the pure

Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, E. Michael

2010-01-01

Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

Daily violent video game playing and depression in preadolescent youth.

PubMed

Tortolero, Susan R; Peskin, Melissa F; Baumler, Elizabeth R; Cuccaro, Paula M; Elliott, Marc N; Davies, Susan L; Lewis, Terri H; Banspach, Stephen W; Kanouse, David E; Schuster, Mark A

2014-09-01

Most studies on the impact of playing violent video games on mental health have focused on aggression. Relatively few studies have examined the relationship between playing violent video games and depression, especially among preadolescent youth. In this study, we investigated whether daily violent video game playing over the past year is associated with a greater number of depressive symptoms among preadolescent youth, after controlling for several well-known correlates of depression among youth. We analyzed cross-sectional data collected from 5,147 fifth-grade students and their primary caregivers who participated in Wave I (2004-2006) of Healthy Passages, a community-based longitudinal study conducted in three U.S. cities. Linear regression was conducted to determine the association between violent video game exposure and number of depressive symptoms, while controlling for gender, race/ethnicity, peer victimization, witnessing violence, being threatened with violence, aggression, family structure, and household income level. We found that students who reported playing high-violence video games for ≥2 hours per day had significantly more depressive symptoms than those who reported playing low-violence video games for <2 hours per day (p<0.001). The magnitude of this association was small (Cohen's d=0.16), but this association was consistent across all racial/ethnic subgroups and among boys (Cohen's d values ranged from 0.12 to 0.25). Our findings indicate that there is an association between daily exposure to violent video games and number of depressive symptoms among preadolescent youth. More research is needed to examine this association and, if confirmed, to investigate its causality, persistence over time, underlying mechanisms, and clinical implications.

Daily Violent Video Game Playing and Depression in Preadolescent Youth

PubMed Central

Peskin, Melissa F.; Baumler, Elizabeth R.; Cuccaro, Paula M.; Elliott, Marc N.; Davies, Susan L.; Lewis, Terri H.; Banspach, Stephen W.; Kanouse, David E.; Schuster, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Abstract Most studies on the impact of playing violent video games on mental health have focused on aggression. Relatively few studies have examined the relationship between playing violent video games and depression, especially among preadolescent youth. In this study, we investigated whether daily violent video game playing over the past year is associated with a greater number of depressive symptoms among preadolescent youth, after controlling for several well-known correlates of depression among youth. We analyzed cross-sectional data collected from 5,147 fifth-grade students and their primary caregivers who participated in Wave I (2004–2006) of Healthy Passages, a community-based longitudinal study conducted in three U.S. cities. Linear regression was conducted to determine the association between violent video game exposure and number of depressive symptoms, while controlling for gender, race/ethnicity, peer victimization, witnessing violence, being threatened with violence, aggression, family structure, and household income level. We found that students who reported playing high-violence video games for ≥2 hours per day had significantly more depressive symptoms than those who reported playing low-violence video games for <2 hours per day (p<0.001). The magnitude of this association was small (Cohen's d=0.16), but this association was consistent across all racial/ethnic subgroups and among boys (Cohen's d values ranged from 0.12 to 0.25). Our findings indicate that there is an association between daily exposure to violent video games and number of depressive symptoms among preadolescent youth. More research is needed to examine this association and, if confirmed, to investigate its causality, persistence over time, underlying mechanisms, and clinical implications. PMID:25007237

Developing Causal Understanding with Causal Maps: The Impact of Total Links, Temporal Flow, and Lateral Position of Outcome Nodes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeong, Allan; Lee, Woon Jee

2012-01-01

This study examined some of the methodological approaches used by students to construct causal maps in order to determine which approaches help students understand the underlying causes and causal mechanisms in a complex system. This study tested the relationship between causal understanding (ratio of root causes correctly/incorrectly identified,…

Interpretation Bias Modification for Youth and their Parents: A Novel Treatment for Early Adolescent Social Anxiety

PubMed Central

Reuland, Meg M.; Teachman, Bethany A.

2014-01-01

Social anxiety is the most prevalent anxiety disorder of late adolescence, yet current treatments reach only a minority of youth with the disorder. Effective and easy-to-disseminate treatments are needed. This study pilot tested the efficacy of a novel, online cognitive bias modification for interpretation (CBM-I) intervention for socially anxious youth and their parents. The CBM-I intervention targeted cognitive biases associated with early adolescents’ maladaptive beliefs regarding social situations, and with parents’ intrusive behavior, both of which have been theoretically linked with the maintenance of social anxiety in youth. To investigate the efficacy of intervening with parents and/or children, clinically diagnosed early adolescents (ages 10–15; N = 18) and their mothers were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: the first targeted early adolescents’ cognitive biases related to social anxiety (Child-only condition); the second targeted parents’ biases associated with intrusive behavior (Parent-only condition); and the third targeted both youth and parents’ biases in tandem (Combo condition). The use of a multiple baseline design allowed for the efficient assessment of causal links between the intervention and reduction in social anxiety symptoms in youth. Results provided converging evidence indicating modest support for the efficacy of CBM-I, with no reliable differences across conditions. Taken together, results suggest that online CBM-I with anxious youth and/or their parents holds promise as an effective and easily administered component of treatment for child social anxiety that deserves further evaluation in a larger trial. PMID:25445075

Interpretation bias modification for youth and their parents: a novel treatment for early adolescent social anxiety.

PubMed

Reuland, Meg M; Teachman, Bethany A

2014-12-01

Social anxiety is the most prevalent anxiety disorder of late adolescence, yet current treatments reach only a minority of youth with the disorder. Effective and easy-to-disseminate treatments are needed. This study pilot tested the efficacy of a novel, online cognitive bias modification for interpretation (CBM-I) intervention for socially anxious youth and their parents. The CBM-I intervention targeted cognitive biases associated with early adolescents' maladaptive beliefs regarding social situations, and with parents' intrusive behavior, both of which have been theoretically linked with the maintenance of social anxiety in youth. To investigate the efficacy of intervening with parents and/or children, clinically diagnosed early adolescents (ages 10-15; N=18) and their mothers were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: the first targeted early adolescents' cognitive biases related to social anxiety (Child-only condition); the second targeted parents' biases associated with intrusive behavior (Parent-only condition); and the third targeted both youth and parents' biases in tandem (Combo condition). The use of a multiple baseline design allowed for the efficient assessment of causal links between the intervention and reduction in social anxiety symptoms in youth. Results provided converging evidence indicating modest support for the efficacy of CBM-I, with no reliable differences across conditions. Taken together, results suggest that online CBM-I with anxious youth and/or their parents holds promise as an effective and easily administered component of treatment for child social anxiety that deserves further evaluation in a larger trial. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple Causality: Consequences for Medical Practice

PubMed Central

Nydegger, Corinne N.

1983-01-01

When a scientifically trained health professional is called upon to deal with patients holding differing causal views of illness, the resulting lack of communication is frustrating to both. This discussion traces some implications for medical practice of significant cultural differences in two aspects of causal paradigms of illness: (1) terms accepted and (2) dimension or level of causality typically sought. The second is the more pervasive and intractable problem, having distinctive consequences for the role of curer, symptomatology, diagnosis and treatment. PMID:6858133

Sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Little is known about sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong. It is of public health importance to investigate this topic to inform sex education, policymaking, and prevention and intervention programs. Methods Based on the Youth Sexuality Survey conducted by Hong Kong Family Planning Association (FPAHK) in 2011, this study explored the characteristics of sexual knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among 1,126 unmarried youth aged 18 to 27 years. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to examine factors associated with unmarried youth’s premarital sex, casual relationships, multiple sex partners, and premarital pregnancy. Results Unmarried youth in Hong Kong had adequate sex knowledge, but contraceptive knowledge was deficient. The majority of unmarried youth (63.8%) held liberal attitudes toward premarital sex and about half held liberal attitudes toward any form of sexual activity and premarital pregnancy. Around 60% held conservative attitudes toward causal sex relationships and multiple sex partners. Males tended to hold more liberal attitudes toward high-risk sex behaviors than female youth. Approximately 41.5% of unmarried youth reported having engaged in premarital sex, whereas less than 10% engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Males also reported higher amounts of premarital sex, casual sex relationships, and multiple sex partners. Females reported higher levels of sexual coercion. Logistic regressions indicated that being older, coming from a divorced family, out of school status and liberal attitudes toward risky sex behavior were more likely to engage in premarital sex or high-risk sex behaviors, and being female, being better educated and being immigrants were less likely to engage in premarital sex. However, being immigrants was more likely to engage in casual relationship and to have multiple partners. Conclusions Premarital sex is becoming more prevalent among

Identity, causality, and pronoun ambiguity.

PubMed

Sagi, Eyal; Rips, Lance J

2014-10-01

This article looks at the way people determine the antecedent of a pronoun in sentence pairs, such as: Albert invited Ron to dinner. He spent hours cleaning the house. The experiment reported here is motivated by the idea that such judgments depend on reasoning about identity (e.g., the identity of the he who cleaned the house). Because the identity of an individual over time depends on the causal-historical path connecting the stages of the individual, the correct antecedent will also depend on causal connections. The experiment varied how likely it is that the event of the first sentence (e.g., the invitation) would cause the event of the second (the house cleaning) for each of the two individuals (the likelihood that if Albert invited Ron to dinner, this would cause Albert to clean the house, versus cause Ron to clean the house). Decisions about the antecedent followed causal likelihood. A mathematical model of causal identity accounted for most of the key aspects of the data from the individual sentence pairs. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Causal reasoning with mental models

PubMed Central

Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

2014-01-01

This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

Causal reasoning with mental models.

PubMed

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2014-01-01

This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

Wormholes, baby universes, and causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, Matt

1990-02-01

In this paper wormholes defined on a Minkowski signature manifold are considered, both at the classical and quantum levels. It is argued that causality in quantum gravity may best be imposed by restricting the functional integral to include only causal Lorentzian spacetimes. Subject to this assumption, one can put very tight constraints on the quantum behavior of wormholes, their cousins the baby universes, and topology-changing processes in general. Even though topology-changing processes are tightly constrained, this still allows very interesting geometrical (rather than topological) effects. In particular, the laboratory construction of baby universes is not prohibited provided that the ``umbilical cord'' is never cut. Methods for relaxing these causality constraints are also discussed.

Research priorities for gender nonconforming/transgender youth: gender identity development and biopsychosocial outcomes.

PubMed

Olson-Kennedy, Johanna; Cohen-Kettenis, Peggy T; Kreukels, Baudewijntje P C; Meyer-Bahlburg, Heino F L; Garofalo, Robert; Meyer, Walter; Rosenthal, Stephen M

2016-04-01

The review summarizes relevant research focused on prevalence and natural history of gender nonconforming/transgender youth, and outcomes of currently recommended clinical practice guidelines. This review identifies gaps in knowledge, and provides recommendations foci for future research. Increasing numbers of gender nonconforming youth are presenting for care. Clinically useful information for predicting individual psychosexual development pathways is lacking. Transgender youth are at high risk for poor medical and psychosocial outcomes. Longitudinal data examining the impact of early social transition and medical interventions are sparse. Existing tools to understand gender identity and quantify gender dysphoria need to be reconfigured to study a more diverse cohort of transgender individuals. Increasingly, biomedical data are beginning to change the trajectory of scientific investigation. Extensive research is needed to improve understanding of gender dysphoria, and transgender experience, particularly among youth. Recommendations include identification of predictors of persistence of gender dysphoria from childhood into adolescence, and a thorough investigation into the impact of interventions for transgender youth. Finally, examining the social environments of transgender youth is critical for the development of appropriate interventions necessary to improve the lives of transgender people.

Research Priorities for Gender Nonconforming/Transgender Youth: Gender Identity Development and Biopsychosocial Outcomes

PubMed Central

Olson-Kennedy, J; Cohen-Kettenis, P. T.; Kreukels, B.P.C; Meyer-Bahlburg, H.F.L; Garofalo, R; Meyer, W; Rosenthal, S.M.

2016-01-01

This review summarizes relevant research focused on prevalence and natural history of gender non-conforming / transgender youth, and outcomes of currently recommended clinical practice guidelines. This review identifies gaps in knowledge, and provides recommendations foci for future research. Recent findings Increasing numbers of gender nonconforming youth are presenting for care. Clinically useful information for predicting individual psychosexual development pathways is lacking. Transgender youth are at high risk for poor medical and psychosocial outcomes. Longitudinal data examining the impact of early social transition and medical interventions are sparse. Existing tools to understand gender identity and quantify gender dysphoria need to be reconfigured in order to study a more diverse cohort of transgender individuals. Increasingly, biomedical data are beginning to change the trajectory of scientific investigation. Summary Extensive research is needed to improve understanding of gender dysphoria, and transgender experience, particularly among youth. Recommendations include identification of predictors of persistence of gender dysphoria from childhood into adolescence, and a thorough investigation into the impact of interventions for transgender youth. Finally, examining the social environments of transgender youth is critical for the development of appropriate interventions necessary to improve the lives of transgender people. PMID:26825472

Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L.

2015-12-01

A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

A self-agency bias in preschoolers' causal inferences

PubMed Central

Kushnir, Tamar; Wellman, Henry M.; Gelman, Susan A.

2013-01-01

Preschoolers' causal learning from intentional actions – causal interventions – is subject to a self-agency bias. We propose that this bias is evidence-based; it is responsive to causal uncertainty. In the current studies, two causes (one child-controlled, one experimenter-controlled) were associated with one or two effects, first independently, then simultaneously. When initial independent effects were probabilistic, and thus subsequent simultaneous actions were causally ambiguous, children showed a self-agency bias. Children showed no bias when initial effects were deterministic. Further controls establish that children's self-agency bias is not a wholesale preference but rather is influenced by uncertainty in causal evidence. These results demonstrate that children's own experience of action influences their causal learning, and suggest possible benefits in uncertain and ambiguous everyday learning contexts. PMID:19271843

Methamphetamine Use among Homeless Former Foster Youth: The Mediating Role of Social Networks

PubMed Central

Yoshioka-Maxwell, Amanda; Rice, Eric; Rhoades, Harmony; Winetrobe, Hailey

2015-01-01

Objectives Social network analysis can provide added causal insight into otherwise confusing epidemiologic findings in public health research. Although foster care and homelessness are risk factors for methamphetamine use, current research has failed to explicate why homeless youth with foster care experience engage in methamphetamine use at higher rates than other homeless young adults. This study examined the mediating effect of network engagement and time spent homeless on the relationship between foster care experience and recent methamphetamine use among homeless youth in Los Angeles. Methods Egocentric network data from a cross-sectional community-based sample (n = 652) of homeless youth aged 13–25 were collected from drop-in centers in Los Angeles. Questions addressed foster care experience, time spent homeless, methamphetamine use, and perceived drug use in social networks. Path analysis was performed in SAS to examine mediation. Results Controlling for all other variables, results of path analysis regarding recent methamphetamine use indicated a direct effect between foster care experience and recent methamphetamine use (B = .269, t = 2.73, p < .01). However, this direct effect became statistically nonsignificant when time spent homeless and network methamphetamine use were added to the model, and indirect paths from time spent homeless and network methamphetamine use became statistically significant. Conclusions Foster care experience influenced recent methamphetamine use indirectly through time spent homeless and methamphetamine use by network members. Efforts to reduce methamphetamine use should focus on securing stable housing and addressing network interactions among homeless former foster youth. PMID:26146647

What can parents do? Examining the role of parental support on the negative relationship between racial discrimination, depression, and drug use among African American youth

PubMed Central

Zapolski, Tamika C. B.; Fisher, Sycarah; Hsu, Wei-Wen; Barnes, Jessica

2016-01-01

African American youth who experience racial discrimination are at heightened risk to use drugs as a coping response to distress. Based on the buffer-stress hypothesis, we proposed that parental support would attenuate this effect. Participants were 1,521 African American youth between 4th and 12th grade. As hypothesized, a mediation pathway was observed between racial discrimination, depression symptoms, and drug use. This effect was observed for both genders, although the pathway was partially mediated for males. Additionally, as hypothesized, parental support buffered the negative effect of depression symptomatology on drug use as a consequence of discrimination. Our findings highlight the impact racial discrimination has on health outcomes for African American youth and the importance of managing youth's emotional responses to discrimination. Moreover, findings illuminate the protective role of supportive parenting within the risk model and should thus be considered as an important component within prevention programming for this population of youth. PMID:27747140

Adolescent Hopefulness in Tanzania: Street Youth, Former Street Youth, and School Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nalkur, Priya G.

2009-01-01

This study compares hope in street youth, former street youth, and school youth (aged 12-18) in Tanzania. Responding to Snyder's hope theory, the author argues that not only personal agency but also the stability of living context (street, shelter, home) shapes hopefulness. Employing qualitative and quantitative analyses, the author presents a…

Indole-3-acetic acid biosynthesis in Fusarium delphinoides strain GPK, a causal agent of Wilt in Chickpea.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Guruprasad B; Sanjeevkumar, S; Kirankumar, B; Santoshkumar, M; Karegoudar, T B

2013-02-01

Fusarium delphinoides (Ascomycota; Nectriaceae) is an indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) producing plant pathogen and a causal agent of wilt in chickpea. The IAA biosynthetic pathway in F. delphinoides strain GPK (FDG) was examined by analyzing metabolic intermediates and by feeding experiments. Gas chromatograph (GC) analysis of FDG culture filtrates showed the presence of metabolic intermediates of indole-3-pyruvic acid (IPyA), indole-3-acetamide (IAM), and tryptamine (TRA) pathways. The different IAA biosynthetic pathways were further confirmed by identifying the presence of different enzymes of these pathways. Substrate specificity study of aromatic amino acid aminotransferase revealed that the enzyme is highly specific for tryptophan (Trp) and α-ketoglutarate (α-kg) as amino group donor and acceptor, respectively. Furthermore, the concentration-dependent effect of exogenous IAA on fungal growth was established. Low concentration of exogenous IAA increases the fungal growth and at high concentration it decreases the growth of FDG.

Spatio-temporal Granger causality: a new framework

PubMed Central

Luo, Qiang; Lu, Wenlian; Cheng, Wei; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A.; Wen, Xiaotong; Ding, Mingzhou; Feng, Jianfeng

2015-01-01

That physiological oscillations of various frequencies are present in fMRI signals is the rule, not the exception. Herein, we propose a novel theoretical framework, spatio-temporal Granger causality, which allows us to more reliably and precisely estimate the Granger causality from experimental datasets possessing time-varying properties caused by physiological oscillations. Within this framework, Granger causality is redefined as a global index measuring the directed information flow between two time series with time-varying properties. Both theoretical analyses and numerical examples demonstrate that Granger causality is a monotonically increasing function of the temporal resolution used in the estimation. This is consistent with the general principle of coarse graining, which causes information loss by smoothing out very fine-scale details in time and space. Our results confirm that the Granger causality at the finer spatio-temporal scales considerably outperforms the traditional approach in terms of an improved consistency between two resting-state scans of the same subject. To optimally estimate the Granger causality, the proposed theoretical framework is implemented through a combination of several approaches, such as dividing the optimal time window and estimating the parameters at the fine temporal and spatial scales. Taken together, our approach provides a novel and robust framework for estimating the Granger causality from fMRI, EEG, and other related data. PMID:23643924

Causal Set Phenomenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philpott, Lydia

2010-09-01

Central to the development of any new theory is the investigation of the observable consequences of the theory. In the search for quantum gravity, research in phenomenology has been dominated by models violating Lorentz invariance (LI) -- despite there being, at present, no evidence that LI is violated. Causal set theory is a LI candidate theory of QG that seeks not to quantise gravity as such, but rather to develop a new understanding of the universe from which both GR and QM could arise separately. The key hypothesis is that spacetime is a discrete partial order: a set of events where the partial ordering is the physical causal ordering between the events. This thesis investigates Lorentz invariant QG phenomenology motivated by the causal set approach. Massive particles propagating in a discrete spacetime will experience diffusion in both position and momentum in proper time. This thesis considers this idea in more depth, providing a rigorous derivation of the diffusion equation in terms of observable cosmic time. The diffusion behaviour does not depend on any particular underlying particle model. Simulations of three different models are conducted, revealing behaviour that matches the diffusion equation despite limitations on the size of causal set simulated. The effect of spacetime discreteness on the behaviour of massless particles is also investigated. Diffusion equations in both affine time and cosmic time are derived, and it is found that massless particles undergo diffusion and drift in energy. Constraints are placed on the magnitudes of the drift and diffusion parameters by considering the blackbody nature of the CMB. Spacetime discreteness also has a potentially observable effect on photon polarisation. For linearly polarised photons, underlying discreteness is found to cause a rotation in polarisation angle and a suppression in overall polarisation.

From Classification to Causality: Advancing Understanding of Mechanisms of Change in Implementation Science.

PubMed

Lewis, Cara C; Klasnja, Predrag; Powell, Byron J; Lyon, Aaron R; Tuzzio, Leah; Jones, Salene; Walsh-Bailey, Callie; Weiner, Bryan

2018-01-01

The science of implementation has offered little toward understanding how different implementation strategies work. To improve outcomes of implementation efforts, the field needs precise, testable theories that describe the causal pathways through which implementation strategies function. In this perspective piece, we describe a four-step approach to developing causal pathway models for implementation strategies. First, it is important to ensure that implementation strategies are appropriately specified. Some strategies in published compilations are well defined but may not be specified in terms of its core component that can have a reliable and measureable impact. Second, linkages between strategies and mechanisms need to be generated. Existing compilations do not offer mechanisms by which strategies act, or the processes or events through which an implementation strategy operates to affect desired implementation outcomes. Third, it is critical to identify proximal and distal outcomes the strategy is theorized to impact, with the former being direct, measurable products of the strategy and the latter being one of eight implementation outcomes (1). Finally, articulating effect modifiers, like preconditions and moderators, allow for an understanding of where, when, and why strategies have an effect on outcomes of interest. We argue for greater precision in use of terms for factors implicated in implementation processes; development of guidelines for selecting research design and study plans that account for practical constructs and allow for the study of mechanisms; psychometrically strong and pragmatic measures of mechanisms; and more robust curation of evidence for knowledge transfer and use.

Entanglement entropy in causal set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorkin, Rafael D.; Yazdi, Yasaman K.

2018-04-01

Entanglement entropy is now widely accepted as having deep connections with quantum gravity. It is therefore desirable to understand it in the context of causal sets, especially since they provide in a natural manner the UV cutoff needed to render entanglement entropy finite. Formulating a notion of entanglement entropy in a causal set is not straightforward because the type of canonical hypersurface-data on which its definition typically relies is not available. Instead, we appeal to the more global expression given in Sorkin (2012 (arXiv:1205.2953)) which, for a Gaussian scalar field, expresses the entropy of a spacetime region in terms of the field’s correlation function within that region (its ‘Wightman function’ W(x, x') ). Carrying this formula over to the causal set, one obtains an entropy which is both finite and of a Lorentz invariant nature. We evaluate this global entropy-expression numerically for certain regions (primarily order-intervals or ‘causal diamonds’) within causal sets of 1  +  1 dimensions. For the causal-set counterpart of the entanglement entropy, we obtain, in the first instance, a result that follows a (spacetime) volume law instead of the expected (spatial) area law. We find, however, that one obtains an area law if one truncates the commutator function (‘Pauli–Jordan operator’) and the Wightman function by projecting out the eigenmodes of the Pauli–Jordan operator whose eigenvalues are too close to zero according to a geometrical criterion which we describe more fully below. In connection with these results and the questions they raise, we also study the ‘entropy of coarse-graining’ generated by thinning out the causal set, and we compare it with what one obtains by similarly thinning out a chain of harmonic oscillators, finding the same, ‘universal’ behaviour in both cases.

Causal premise semantics.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Stefan

2013-08-01

The rise of causality and the attendant graph-theoretic modeling tools in the study of counterfactual reasoning has had resounding effects in many areas of cognitive science, but it has thus far not permeated the mainstream in linguistic theory to a comparable degree. In this study I show that a version of the predominant framework for the formal semantic analysis of conditionals, Kratzer-style premise semantics, allows for a straightforward implementation of the crucial ideas and insights of Pearl-style causal networks. I spell out the details of such an implementation, focusing especially on the notions of intervention on a network and backtracking interpretations of counterfactuals. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Adverse Outcome Pathways and Extrapolation Tools to Advance the Three Rs in Ecotoxicology

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are conceptual frameworks for identifying and organizing predictive and causal linkages between cellular-level responses and endpoints conventionally considered in ecological risk assessment (e.g., effects on survival, growth/development, and repro...

Pathways linking family stress to youth delinquency and substance use: Exploring the mediating roles of self-efficacy and future orientation.

PubMed

Voisin, Dexter R; Kim, Dong Ha; Bassett, Sarah M; Marotta, Phillip L

2018-03-01

African American adolescents in poorer neighborhoods experience significant sanctions related to drug use and delinquency. Parental stress (i.e. substance use, mental distress, and incarceration) is associated with youth drug use and delinquency. We examined whether high self-esteem and positive future orientation mediated parental stress and youth substance use and delinquency. Demographic, family stress, future orientation, self-esteem, and drug use data were collected from 578 youths. Major findings indicated that self-esteem mediated the relationship between family stress and both drug use and delinquency. Future mediated the relationship between family stress and delinquency. Resiliency factors may promote positive development for low-income youth.

Modelling possible causality in the associations between unemployment, cannabis use, and alcohol misuse.

PubMed

Boden, Joseph M; Lee, Jungeun Olivia; Horwood, L John; Grest, Carolina Villamil; McLeod, Geraldine F H

2017-02-01

There has been considerable interest in the extent to which substance use and unemployment may be related, particularly the causal pathways that may be involved in these associations. It has been argued that these associations may reflect social causation, in which unemployment influences substance use, or that they may reflect social selection, in which substance use increases the risk of becoming and remaining unemployed. The present study sought to test these competing explanations. Data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study, featuring a longitudinal birth cohort, were used to model the associations between unemployment and both cannabis and alcohol. Data on patterns of unemployment, involvement with cannabis, and symptoms of alcohol use disorder were examined from ages 18-35 years. The associations between unemployment and both cannabis dependence and alcohol use disorder (AUD) were modelled using conditional fixed-effects regression models, augmented by time-dynamic covariate factors. The analyses showed evidence of possible reciprocal causal processes in the association between unemployment and cannabis dependence, in which unemployment of at least three months' duration significantly (p < 0.0001) increased the risk of cannabis dependence, and cannabis dependence significantly (p < 0.0001) increased the risk of being unemployed. Similar evidence was found for the associations between unemployment and AUD, although these associations were smaller in magnitude. The present findings support both social causation and social selection arguments, by indicating that unemployment plays a causal role in substance misuse, and that it is also likely that a reverse causal process whereby substance misuse increases the risk of unemployment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks.

PubMed

Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L

2015-12-01

A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

Causal Superlearning Arising from Interactions Among Cues

PubMed Central

Urushihara, Kouji; Miller, Ralph R.

2017-01-01

Superconditioning refers to supernormal responding to a conditioned stimulus (CS) that sometimes occurs in classical conditioning when the CS is paired with an unconditioned stimulus (US) in the presence of a conditioned inhibitor for that US. In the present research, we conducted four experiments to investigate causal superlearning, a phenomenon in human causal learning analogous to superconditioning. Experiment 1 demonstrated superlearning relative to appropriate control conditions. Experiment 2 showed that superlearning wanes when the number of cues used in an experiment is relatively large. Experiment 3 determined that even when relatively many cues are used, superlearning can be observed provided testing is conducted immediately after training, which is problematic for explanations by most contemporary learning theories. Experiment 4 found that ratings of a superlearning cue are weaker than those to the training excitor which gives basis to the conditioned inhibitor-like causal preventor used during causal superlearning training. This is inconsistent with the prediction by propositional reasoning accounts of causal cue competition, but is readily explained by associative learning models. In sum, the current experiments revealed some weaknesses of both the associative and propositional reasoning models with respect to causal superlearning. PMID:28383940

Updating during reading comprehension: why causality matters.

PubMed

Kendeou, Panayiota; Smith, Emily R; O'Brien, Edward J

2013-05-01

The present set of 7 experiments systematically examined the effectiveness of adding causal explanations to simple refutations in reducing or eliminating the impact of outdated information on subsequent comprehension. The addition of a single causal-explanation sentence to a refutation was sufficient to eliminate any measurable disruption in comprehension caused by the outdated information (Experiment 1) but was not sufficient to eliminate its reactivation (Experiment 2). However, a 3 sentence causal-explanation addition to a refutation eliminated both any measurable disruption in comprehension (Experiment 3) and the reactivation of the outdated information (Experiment 4). A direct comparison between the 1 and 3 causal-explanation conditions provided converging evidence for these findings (Experiment 5). Furthermore, a comparison of the 3 sentence causal-explanation condition with a 3 sentence qualified-elaboration condition demonstrated that even though both conditions were sufficient to eliminate any measurable disruption in comprehension (Experiment 6), only the causal-explanation condition was sufficient to eliminate the reactivation of the outdated information (Experiment 7). These results establish a boundary condition under which outdated information will influence comprehension; they also have broader implications for both the updating process and knowledge revision in general.

Tools for Detecting Causality in Space Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, J.; Wing, S.

2017-12-01

Complex systems such as the solar and magnetospheric envivonment often exhibit patterns of behavior that suggest underlying organizing principles. Causality is a key organizing principle that is particularly difficult to establish in strongly coupled nonlinear systems, but essential for understanding and modeling the behavior of systems. While traditional methods of time-series analysis can identify linear correlations, they do not adequately quantify the distinction between causal and coincidental dependence. We discuss tools for detecting causality including: granger causality, transfer entropy, conditional redundancy, and convergent cross maps. The tools are illustrated by applications to magnetospheric and solar physics including radiation belt, Dst (a magnetospheric state variable), substorm, and solar cycle dynamics.

Psychosocial Pathways to Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) Risk Among Youth Transitioning Out of Foster Care: Evidence from a Longitudinal Cohort Study

PubMed Central

McCarty, Cari; Simoni, Jane; Dworsky, Amy; Courtney, Mark E.

2013-01-01

Purpose To test the fit of a theoretically driven conceptual model of pathways to STI risk among foster youth transitioning to adulthood. The model included: 1) historical abuse and foster care experiences, 2) mental health and attachment style in late adolescence, and 3) STI risk in young adulthood. Methods We used path analysis to analyze data from a longitudinal study of 732 youth transitioning out of foster care. Covariates included gender, race and an inverse probability weight. We also performed moderation analyses comparing models constrained and unconstrained by gender. Results Thirty percent reported they or a partner had been diagnosed with an STI. Probability of other measured STI risk behaviors ranged from 9% (having sex for money) to 79% (inconsistent condom use). Overall model fit was good (Standardized Root Mean Squared Residual of 0.026). Increased risk of oppositional/delinquent behaviors mediated an association between abuse history and STI risk, via increased inconsistent condom use. There was also a borderline association with having greater than 5 partners. Having a very close relationship with a caregiver and remaining in foster care beyond age 18 decreased STI risk. Moderation analysis revealed better model fit when coefficients were allowed to vary by gender versus a constrained model, but few significant differences in individual path coefficients were found between male and female-only models. Conclusions Interventions/policies that: 1) address externalizing trauma sequelae, 2) promote close, stable substitute caregiver relationships, and 3) extend care to age 21 years have the potential to decrease STI risk in this population. PMID:23859955

Psychosocial pathways to sexually transmitted infection risk among youth transitioning out of foster care: evidence from a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Ahrens, Kym R; McCarty, Cari; Simoni, Jane; Dworsky, Amy; Courtney, Mark E

2013-10-01

To test the fit of a theoretically driven conceptual model of pathways to sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk among foster youth transitioning to adulthood. The model included (1) historical abuse and foster care experiences; (2) mental health and attachment style in late adolescence; and (3) STI risk in young adulthood. We used path analysis to analyze data from a longitudinal study of 732 youth transitioning out of foster care. Covariates included gender, race, and an inverse probability weight. We also performed moderation analyses comparing models constrained and unconstrained by gender. Thirty percent reported they or a partner had been diagnosed with an STI. Probability of other measured STI risk behaviors ranged from 9% (having sex for money) to 79% (inconsistent condom use). Overall model fit was good (Standardized Root Mean Square Residual of .026). Increased risk of oppositional/delinquent behaviors mediated an association between abuse history and STI risk, via increased inconsistent condom use. There was also a borderline association with having greater than five partners. Having a very close relationship with a caregiver and remaining in foster care beyond age 18 years decreased STI risk. Moderation analysis revealed better model fit when coefficients were allowed to vary by gender versus a constrained model, but few significant differences in individual path coefficients were found between male and female-only models. Interventions/policies that (1) address externalizing trauma sequelae; (2) promote close, stable substitute caregiver relationships; and (3) extend care to age 21 years have the potential to decrease STI risk in this population. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in pathways from child physical and sexual abuse to adolescent risky sexual behavior among high-risk youth.

PubMed

Yoon, Susan; Voith, Laura A; Kobulsky, Julia M

2018-04-01

This study investigated gender differences in the roles of internalizing and externalizing symptoms and substance use as pathways linking child physical and sexual abuse to risky sexual behavior among youth at risk of maltreatment. Path analysis was performed with 862 adolescents drawn from Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect. Four waves of data collected in the United States were used: childhood physical and sexual abuse experiences (from ages 0-12) were assessed by Child Protective Services reports, internalizing and externalizing symptoms were measured at age 14, substance use was measured at age 16, and risky sexual behavior was measured at age 18. Physical abuse was directly associated with risky sexual behavior in boys but not girls. For girls, physical abuse had a significant indirect effect on risky sexual behavior via externalizing symptoms. Gender-focused preventive intervention strategies may be effective in reducing risky sexual behavior among at-risk adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

2016-01-01

When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

Inverse odds ratio-weighted estimation for causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2013-11-20

An important scientific goal of studies in the health and social sciences is increasingly to determine to what extent the total effect of a point exposure is mediated by an intermediate variable on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. A causal framework has recently been proposed for mediation analysis, which gives rise to new definitions, formal identification results and novel estimators of direct and indirect effects. In the present paper, the author describes a new inverse odds ratio-weighted approach to estimate so-called natural direct and indirect effects. The approach, which uses as a weight the inverse of an estimate of the odds ratio function relating the exposure and the mediator, is universal in that it can be used to decompose total effects in a number of regression models commonly used in practice. Specifically, the approach may be used for effect decomposition in generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function, and in a number of other commonly used models such as the Cox proportional hazards regression for a survival outcome. The approach is simple and can be implemented in standard software provided a weight can be specified for each observation. An additional advantage of the method is that it easily incorporates multiple mediators of a categorical, discrete or continuous nature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Setting the stage to advance the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework through horizon scanning

EPA Science Inventory

Recognizing the international interest surrounding the adverse outcome pathway framework, which captures existing information describing causal linkages between a molecular initiating event through levels of biological organization to an adverse outcome of regulatory significance...

Youth Gangs: An Overview. Juvenile Justice Bulletin. Youth Gang Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howell, James C.

1998-01-01

This bulletin provides an overview of the problems that youth gangs pose. It pinpoints the differences between youth gangs and adult criminal organizations and examines the risk factors that lead to youth gang membership. Some promising strategies being used to curb youth gang involvement are reviewed. The proliferation of youth gangs since 1980…

Translating context to causality in cardiovascular disparities research.

PubMed

Benn, Emma K T; Goldfeld, Keith S

2016-04-01

Moving from a descriptive focus to a comprehensive analysis grounded in causal inference can be particularly daunting for disparities researchers. However, even a simple model supported by the theoretical underpinnings of causality gives researchers a better chance to make correct inferences about possible interventions that can benefit our most vulnerable populations. This commentary provides a brief description of how race/ethnicity and context relate to questions of causality, and uses a hypothetical scenario to explore how different researchers might analyze the data to estimate causal effects of interest. Perhaps although not entirely removed of bias, these causal estimates will move us a step closer to understanding how to intervene. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Youth Politics and Local Constructions of Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Kristian; Lundahl, Lisbeth

2004-01-01

In the 1990s, temporary youth projects became a common approach to handling youth unemployment and the social integration of young people in Sweden. In a longitudinal, qualitative study, 35 unemployed men and women, attending local youth projects in three Swedish municipalities, were followed over a two-year period. The selected contexts…

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Maltreated Youth: A Review of Contemporary Research and Thought

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kearney, Christopher A.; Wechsler, Adrianna; Kaur, Harpreet; Lemos-Miller, Amie

2010-01-01

Youths who have been maltreated often experience symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and this special population has received increased attention from researchers. Pathways toward maladaptive effects of maltreatment and PTSD are remarkably similar and reflect specific biological diatheses and psychological vulnerabilities that…

Interpretational Confounding or Confounded Interpretations of Causal Indicators?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bainter, Sierra A.; Bollen, Kenneth A.

2014-01-01

In measurement theory, causal indicators are controversial and little understood. Methodological disagreement concerning causal indicators has centered on the question of whether causal indicators are inherently sensitive to interpretational confounding, which occurs when the empirical meaning of a latent construct departs from the meaning…

Teaching Urban Youth about Controversial Issues: Pathways to Becoming Active and Informed Citizens

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Alex Romeo; Lawrence, Joshua Fahey; Snow, Catherine Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Although American schools are required to meet civic education goals of preparing students to become active and informed citizens, high-quality civic opportunities (e.g. service learning and volunteering) are consistently less available to youth of color who are typically enrolled in schools located in high-poverty communities. The purpose of this…

Literature mining, gene-set enrichment and pathway analysis for target identification in Behçet's disease.

PubMed

Wilson, Paul; Larminie, Christopher; Smith, Rona

2016-01-01

To use literature mining to catalogue Behçet's associated genes, and advanced computational methods to improve the understanding of the pathways and signalling mechanisms that lead to the typical clinical characteristics of Behçet's patients. To extend this technique to identify potential treatment targets for further experimental validation. Text mining methods combined with gene enrichment tools, pathway analysis and causal analysis algorithms. This approach identified 247 human genes associated with Behçet's disease and the resulting disease map, comprising 644 nodes and 19220 edges, captured important details of the relationships between these genes and their associated pathways, as described in diverse data repositories. Pathway analysis has identified how Behçet's associated genes are likely to participate in innate and adaptive immune responses. Causal analysis algorithms have identified a number of potential therapeutic strategies for further investigation. Computational methods have captured pertinent features of the prominent disease characteristics presented in Behçet's disease and have highlighted NOD2, ICOS and IL18 signalling as potential therapeutic strategies.

How multiple causes combine: independence constraints on causal inference.

PubMed

Liljeholm, Mimi

2015-01-01

According to the causal power view, two core constraints-that causes occur independently (i.e., no confounding) and influence their effects independently-serve as boundary conditions for causal induction. This study investigated how violations of these constraints modulate uncertainty about the existence and strength of a causal relationship. Participants were presented with pairs of candidate causes that were either confounded or not, and that either interacted or exerted their influences independently. Consistent with the causal power view, uncertainty about the existence and strength of causal relationships was greater when causes were confounded or interacted than when unconfounded and acting independently. An elemental Bayesian causal model captured differences in uncertainty due to confounding but not those due to an interaction. Implications of distinct sources of uncertainty for the selection of contingency information and causal generalization are discussed.

Does sufficient evidence exist to support a causal association between vitamin D status and cardiovascular disease risk? An assessment using Hill's criteria for causality.

PubMed

Weyland, Patricia G; Grant, William B; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-09-02

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor.

The role of counterfactual theory in causal reasoning.

PubMed

Maldonado, George

2016-10-01

In this commentary I review the fundamentals of counterfactual theory and its role in causal reasoning in epidemiology. I consider if counterfactual theory dictates that causal questions must be framed in terms of well-defined interventions. I conclude that it does not. I hypothesize that the interventionist approach to causal inference in epidemiology stems from elevating the randomized trial design to the gold standard for thinking about causal inference. I suggest that instead the gold standard we should use for thinking about causal inference in epidemiology is the thought experiment that, for example, compares an actual disease frequency under one exposure level with a counterfactual disease frequency under a different exposure level (as discussed in Greenland and Robins (1986) and Maldonado and Greenland (2002)). I also remind us that no method should be termed "causal" unless it addresses the effect of other biases in addition to the problem of confounding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic Fatigue and Personality: A Twin Study of Causal Pathways and Shared Liabilities

PubMed Central

Poeschla, Brian; Strachan, Eric; Dansie, Elizabeth; Buchwald, Dedra S.; Afari, Niloofar

2013-01-01

Background The etiology of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) remains unknown. Personality traits influence well-being and may play a role in CFS and unexplained chronic fatigue. Purpose To examine the association of emotional instability and extraversion with chronic fatigue and CFS in a genetically informative sample. Methods We evaluated 245 twin pairs for two definitions of chronic fatigue. They completed the Neuroticism and Extraversion subscales of the NEO-FFI. Using a co-twin control design, we examined the association between personality and chronic fatigue. Results Higher emotional instability was associated with both definitions of chronic fatigue and was confounded by shared genetics. Lower extraversion was also associated with both definitions of fatigue, but was not confounded by familial factors. Conclusions Both emotional instability and extraversion are related to chronic fatigue and CFS. Whereas emotional instability and chronic fatigue are linked by shared genetic mechanisms, the relationship with extraversion may be causal and bi-directional. PMID:23361410

Gender and the transmission of civic engagement: assessing the influences on youth civic activity.

PubMed

Matthews, Todd L; Hempel, Lynn M; Howell, Frank M

2010-01-01

The study of civic activity has become a central focus for many social scientists over the past decade, generating considerable research and debate. Previous studies have largely overlooked the role of youth socialization into civic life, most notably in the settings of home and school. Further, differences along gender lines in civic capacity have not been given sufficient attention in past studies. This study adds to the literature by examining the potential pathways in the development of youth civic activity and potential, utilizing both gender-neutral and gender-specific structural equation modeling of data from the 1996 National Household Education Survey. Results indicate that involvement by parents in their child's schooling plays a crucial, mediating role in the relationship between adult and youth civic activity. Gender differences are minimal; thus adult school involvement is crucial for transmitting civic culture from parents to both female and male youth.

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

PubMed

Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

2016-03-01

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015

Subjective spacetime derived from a causal histories approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunji, Yukio-Pegio; Haruna, Taichi; Uragami, Daisuke; Nishikawa, Asaki

2009-10-01

The internal description of spacetime can reveal ambiguity regarding an observer’s perception of the present, where an observer can refer to the present as if he were outside spacetime while actually existing in the present. This ambiguity can be expressed as the compatibility between an element and a set, and is here called a/{a}-compatibility. We describe a causal set as a lattice and a causal history as a quotient lattice, and implement the a/{a}-compatibility in the framework of a causal histories approach. This leads to a perpetual change of a pair of causal set and causal history, and can be used to describe subjective spacetime including the déjà vu experience and/or schizophrenic time.

Human Development and Violence Prevention: A Focus on Youth. Center Paper 011.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Kirk R.; Guerra, Nancy G.; Elliott, Delbert S.

This publication outlines a theoretical framework to guide research, policy, and action plans to combat youth violence. Research findings suggest that analyzing violence in connection with human development will provide a greater understanding of the problem. Such an analysis should trace pathways to violence in order to infuse prevention…

Youth and Caregiver Physical Activity and Sedentary Time: HCHS/SOL Youth.

PubMed

Gallo, Linda C; Roesch, Scott P; McCurley, Jessica L; Isasi, Carmen R; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Delamater, Alan M; Van Horn, Linda; Arredondo, Elva M; Perreira, Krista M; Buelna, Christina; Qi, Qibin; Vidot, Denise C; Carnethon, Mercedes R

2017-01-01

We examined associations between youth and caregiver moderate/ vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary (SED) time, using accelerometery, in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latino Youth (HCHS/ SOL) Youth. Participants were 623 caregivers and 877 youth 8-16 years old, enrolled in 2012-2014. Associations of youth and caregiver MVPA time, SED time, and meeting MVPA recommendations ( 150 min/week, adults; 420 min/week, youth) were examined in regression models that controlled for sample weights, design effects, and demographic and health covariates. Youth whose caregivers met MVPA recommendations were nearly twice as likely to meet these recommendations themselves when compared to youth whose caregivers did not meet MVPA recommendations (OR = 1.9, 95 CI 1.1, 3.3). Youth and caregiver SED time also were significantly related (p .05). A similar pattern of findings was observed in analyses limited to relationships in which the caregiver was a biological parent of the youth (N = 485 caregivers; N = 795 youth). MVPA and SED are correlated within Latino families as observed by statistically significant relationships of youth and caregiver activity. Additional research is needed to understand underlying genetic and environmental factors that explain these findings.

Youth Change Agents: Comparing the Sociopolitical Identities of Youth Organizers and Youth Commissioners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conner, Jerusha O.; Cosner, Katherine

2016-01-01

Although youth have long been at the forefront of social change, the last two decades have seen an upsurge in the number of organizations, agencies, and governmental bodies dedicated to supporting the idea of youth voice in public policy. Drawing on in-depth individual interviews with 32 youth in one major urban center, this study compares how…

Causal relations and feature similarity in children's inductive reasoning.

PubMed

Hayes, Brett K; Thompson, Susan P

2007-08-01

Four experiments examined the development of property induction on the basis of causal relations. In the first 2 studies, 5-year-olds, 8-year-olds, and adults were presented with triads in which a target instance was equally similar to 2 inductive bases but shared a causal antecedent feature with 1 of them. All 3 age groups used causal relations as a basis for property induction, although the proportion of causal inferences increased with age. Subsequent experiments pitted causal relations against featural similarity in induction. It was found that adults and 8-year-olds, but not 5-year-olds, preferred shared causal relations over strong featural similarity as a basis for induction. The implications for models of inductive reasoning and development are discussed.

At-Risk Youth in Australian Schools and Promising Models of Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cumming, Therese M.; Strnadová, Iva; Dowse, Leanne

2014-01-01

The largest population of youth at risk for involvement in the juvenile justice system are those with disabilities and mental illness. There has been scant research into the pathways that these students take from home, school and the community to involvement in the justice system in Australia. This paper utilises insights from critical disability…

Causality, mediation and time: a dynamic viewpoint

PubMed Central

Aalen, Odd O; Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael; Ledergerber, Bruno

2012-01-01

Summary. Time dynamics are often ignored in causal modelling. Clearly, causality must operate in time and we show how this corresponds to a mechanistic, or system, understanding of causality. The established counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects depend on an ability to manipulate the mediator which may not hold in practice, and we argue that a mechanistic view may be better. Graphical representations based on local independence graphs and dynamic path analysis are used to facilitate communication as well as providing an overview of the dynamic relations ‘at a glance’. The relationship between causality as understood in a mechanistic and in an interventionist sense is discussed. An example using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study is presented. PMID:23193356

Effective connectivity: Influence, causality and biophysical modeling

PubMed Central

Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A.; Roebroeck, Alard; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl

2011-01-01

This is the final paper in a Comments and Controversies series dedicated to “The identification of interacting networks in the brain using fMRI: Model selection, causality and deconvolution”. We argue that discovering effective connectivity depends critically on state-space models with biophysically informed observation and state equations. These models have to be endowed with priors on unknown parameters and afford checks for model Identifiability. We consider the similarities and differences among Dynamic Causal Modeling, Granger Causal Modeling and other approaches. We establish links between past and current statistical causal modeling, in terms of Bayesian dependency graphs and Wiener–Akaike–Granger–Schweder influence measures. We show that some of the challenges faced in this field have promising solutions and speculate on future developments. PMID:21477655

Causality attribution biases oculomotor responses.

PubMed

Badler, Jeremy; Lefèvre, Philippe; Missal, Marcus

2010-08-04

When viewing one object move after being struck by another, humans perceive that the action of the first object "caused" the motion of the second, not that the two events occurred independently. Although established as a perceptual and linguistic concept, it is not yet known whether the notion of causality exists as a fundamental, preattentional "Gestalt" that can influence predictive motor processes. Therefore, eye movements of human observers were measured while viewing a display in which a launcher impacted a tool to trigger the motion of a second "reaction" target. The reaction target could move either in the direction predicted by transfer of momentum after the collision ("causal") or in a different direction ("noncausal"), with equal probability. Control trials were also performed with identical target motion, either with a 100 ms time delay between the collision and reactive motion, or without the interposed tool. Subjects made significantly more predictive movements (smooth pursuit and saccades) in the causal direction during standard trials, and smooth pursuit latencies were also shorter overall. These trends were reduced or absent in control trials. In addition, pursuit latencies in the noncausal direction were longer during standard trials than during control trials. The results show that causal context has a strong influence on predictive movements.

[Causality link in criminal law: role of epidemiology].

PubMed

Zocchetti, C; Riboldi, L

2003-01-01

This paper focusses on the role of epidemiology in demonstrating causality in criminal trials of toxic tort litigation. First of all, consideration is given of the specificity of the criminal trial and of the role of the epidemiologist as expert witness. As a second step the concept of causality is examined separating general from specific (individual level) causality. As regards general causality, strategies based on some criteria (example: Bradford-Hill criteria) are contrasted with approaches that do not consider causality a matter of science but one of health policy; and specific methods frequently used (meta-analysis, risk assessment, International Boards evaluation,....) are discussed, with special reference to the adoption of high-level standards and to the context of cross-examination. As regards individual level causality the difficulties of the epidemiologic approach to such evaluation are stressed, with special reference to topics like expected value, attributable risk, and probability of causation. All examples are taken from Italian court trials. A general comment on the difficulties of using the criminal trial (dominated by the "but for" rule) for toxic tort litigation and on the opportunity to switch to trials (civil, administrative) with less stringent causal rules ("more probable than not") is offered, with a consideration also of what are called "class actions".

Spot the difference: Causal contrasts in scientific diagrams.

PubMed

Scholl, Raphael

2016-12-01

An important function of scientific diagrams is to identify causal relationships. This commonly relies on contrasts that highlight the effects of specific difference-makers. However, causal contrast diagrams are not an obvious and easy to recognize category because they appear in many guises. In this paper, four case studies are presented to examine how causal contrast diagrams appear in a wide range of scientific reports, from experimental to observational and even purely theoretical studies. It is shown that causal contrasts can be expressed in starkly different formats, including photographs of complexly visualized macromolecules as well as line graphs, bar graphs, or plots of state spaces. Despite surface differences, however, there is a measure of conceptual unity among such diagrams. In empirical studies they often serve not only to infer and communicate specific causal claims, but also as evidence for them. The key data of some studies is given nowhere except in the diagrams. Many diagrams show multiple causal contrasts in order to demonstrate both that an effect exists and that the effect is specific - that is, to narrowly circumscribe the phenomenon to be explained. In a large range of scientific reports, causal contrast diagrams reflect the core epistemic claims of the researchers. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

PubMed

Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

2015-01-01

Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

A general, multivariate definition of causal effects in epidemiology.

PubMed

Flanders, W Dana; Klein, Mitchel

2015-07-01

Population causal effects are often defined as contrasts of average individual-level counterfactual outcomes, comparing different exposure levels. Common examples include causal risk difference and risk ratios. These and most other examples emphasize effects on disease onset, a reflection of the usual epidemiological interest in disease occurrence. Exposure effects on other health characteristics, such as prevalence or conditional risk of a particular disability, can be important as well, but contrasts involving these other measures may often be dismissed as non-causal. For example, an observed prevalence ratio might often viewed as an estimator of a causal incidence ratio and hence subject to bias. In this manuscript, we provide and evaluate a definition of causal effects that generalizes those previously available. A key part of the generalization is that contrasts used in the definition can involve multivariate, counterfactual outcomes, rather than only univariate outcomes. An important consequence of our generalization is that, using it, one can properly define causal effects based on a wide variety of additional measures. Examples include causal prevalence ratios and differences and causal conditional risk ratios and differences. We illustrate how these additional measures can be useful, natural, easily estimated, and of public health importance. Furthermore, we discuss conditions for valid estimation of each type of causal effect, and how improper interpretation or inferences for the wrong target population can be sources of bias.

Child maltreatment and age of alcohol and marijuana initiation in high-risk youth.

PubMed

Proctor, Laura J; Lewis, Terri; Roesch, Scott; Thompson, Richard; Litrownik, Alan J; English, Diana; Arria, Amelia M; Isbell, Patricia; Dubowitz, Howard

2017-12-01

Youth with a history of child maltreatment use substances and develop substance use disorders at rates above national averages. Thus far, no research has examined pathways from maltreatment to age of substance use initiation for maltreated youth. We examined the longitudinal impact of maltreatment in early childhood on age of alcohol and marijuana use initiation, and whether internalizing and externalizing behaviors at age 8 mediates the link between maltreatment and age of substance use initiation. Data were drawn from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LONGSCAN) at ages 4, 8, 12, and 18. Maltreatment was assessed through reviews of administrative records and youth self-reports. Behavior problems were assessed with the Child Behavior Checklist. Age of substance use initiation was assessed with the Young Adult version of the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children. Path analyses indicated mediated effects from a history of maltreatment to age at first alcohol and marijuana use through externalizing behaviors. Considering type of maltreatment, direct effects were found from physical abuse to age of alcohol initiation, and mediated effects were found from sexual abuse and neglect to initial age of alcohol and marijuana use through externalizing behaviors. Direct effects for marijuana use initiation and indirect effects through internalizing behavior problems were not significant for either substance. Externalizing behavior is one pathway from childhood maltreatment to age of substance use initiation. Services for maltreated youth should incorporate substance use prevention, particularly among those with early externalizing problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riseng, C.M.; Wiley, M.J.; Black, R.W.; Munn, M.D.

2011-01-01

Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture-dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation-wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality-related stresses. Regionspecific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In theWestern Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain andWestern Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and

Pathways to Occupational Attainment among Poor Youth of Color: The Role of Sociopolitical Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diemer, Matthew A.

2009-01-01

The formation of future occupational expectations is a critical career-development task for adolescents that has a significant impact on adult occupational attainment. However, sociopolitical barriers constrain the occupational expectations and attainment of poor youth of color. Extant research has suggested that sociopolitical development, the…

Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

PubMed Central

Weyland, Patricia G.; Grant, William B.; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-01-01

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor. PMID:25184368

Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keele, Luke

2015-01-01

In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

Demographic, psychosocial, and genetic risk associated with smokeless tobacco use among Mexican heritage youth.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Anna V; Koehly, Laura M; Vandewater, Elizabeth A; Yu, Robert K; Fisher-Hoch, Susan P; Prokhorov, Alexander V; Kohl, Harold W; Spitz, Margaret R; Shete, Sanjay

2015-06-26

Despite well-established negative health consequences of smokeless tobacco use (STU), the number and variety of alternative non-combustible tobacco products on the market have increased tremendously over the last 10 years, as has the market share of these products relative to cigarettes. While STU among non-Hispanic white youth has decreased over the last 10 years, the prevalence has remained constant among Hispanic youth. Here we examine demographic, psychosocial, and genetic risk associated with STU among Mexican heritage youth. Participants (50.5 % girls) reported on psychosocial risk factors in 2008-09 (n = 1,087, mean age = 14.3 years), and smokeless tobacco use in 2010-11 (mean age = 16.7 years). Participants provided a saliva sample that was genotyped for genes in the dopamine, serotonin and opioid pathways. Overall 62 (5.7 %) participants reported lifetime STU. We identified five single nucleotide polymorphisms that increased the risk for lifetime use. Specifically, rs2023902 on SERGEF (OR = 1.93; 95 % CI: 1.05-3.53), rs16941667 on ALDH2 (OR = 3.14; 95 % CI: 1.65-5.94), and rs17721739 on TPH1 (OR = 1.71; 95 % CI: 1.00-2.91) in the dopamine pathway, rs514912 on TRH-DE (OR = 1.84; 95 % CI: 1.25-2.71) in the serotonin pathway, and rs42451417 on the serotonin transporter gene, SLC6A4 (OR = 3.53; 95 % CI: 1.56-7.97). After controlling for genetic risk, being male (OR = 1.86; 95 % CI: 1.02-3.41), obesity status (OR = 2.22; 95 % CI: 1.21-4.09), and both higher levels of anxiety (OR = 1.04; 95 % CI: 1.01-1.08) and social disinhibition (OR = 1.26; 95 % CI: 1.07-1.48) were associated with increased use. High subjective social status (OR = 0.78; 95 % CI: 0.64-0.93) was protective against use, while higher parental education (OR = 2.01; 95 % CI: 1.03-3.93) was associated with increased use. These data suggest that use of genetic risk, along with psychosocial, demographic, and behavioral risk factors may increase our ability to identify youth at increased risk for STU

Association between youth-focused firearm laws and youth suicides.

PubMed

Webster, Daniel W; Vernick, Jon S; Zeoli, April M; Manganello, Jennifer A

2004-08-04

Firearms are used in approximately half of all youth suicides. Many state and federal laws include age-specific restrictions on the purchase, possession, or storage of firearms; however, the association between these laws and suicides among youth has not been carefully examined. To evaluate the association between youth-focused firearm laws and suicides among youth. Quasi-experimental design with annual state-level data on suicide rates among US youth aged 14 through 20 years, for the period 1976-2001. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the association between state and federal youth-focused firearm laws mandating a minimum age for the purchase or possession of handguns and state child access prevention (CAP) laws requiring safe storage of firearms on suicide rates among youth. Association between youth-focused state and federal firearm laws and rates of firearm, nonfirearm, and total suicides among US youth aged 14 to 17 and 18 through 20 years. There were 63 954 suicides among youth aged 14 through 20 years during the 1976-2001 study period, 39 655 (62%) of which were committed with firearms. Minimum purchase-age and possession-age laws were not associated with statistically significant reductions in suicide rates among youth aged 14 through 20 years. State CAP laws were associated with an 8.3% decrease (rate ratio [RR], 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-0.98) in suicide rates among 14- to 17-year-olds. The annual rate of suicide in this age group in states with CAP laws was 5.97 per 100 000 population rather than the projected 6.51. This association was also statistically significant for firearm suicides (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.83-0.96) but not for nonfirearm suicides (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.91-1.10). CAP laws were also associated with a significant reduction in suicides among youth aged 18 through 20 years (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93); however, the association was similar for firearm suicides (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82-0.92) and nonfirearm

Pathways to STEMM Professions for Students from Noncollege Homes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Jon D.; Pearson, Willie, Jr.

2012-01-01

In this article we use data from the Longitudinal Study of American Youth to examine the influence of parent education on pathways to science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM) professions. Building on a general model of factors related to STEMM education and employment, we employ a two-group structural equation model to…

How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinsler, Paul

2011-01-01

I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

The effects of autonomy-supportive coaching, need satisfaction, and self-perceptions on initiative and identity in youth swimmers.

PubMed

Coatsworth, J Douglas; Conroy, David E

2009-03-01

This study tested a sequential process model linking youth sport coaching climates (perceived coach behaviors and perceived need satisfaction) to youth self-perceptions (perceived competence and global self-esteem) and youth development outcomes (initiative, identity reflection, identity exploration). A sample of 119 youth between the ages of 10 and 18 who participated in a community-directed summer swim league completed questionnaires over the course of the 7-week season. Results indicated that coaches' autonomy support, particularly via process-focused praise, predicted youth competence need satisfaction and relatedness need satisfaction in the coaching relationship. Youth competence need satisfaction predicted self-esteem indirectly via perceived competence. Finally, self-esteem predicted identity reflection, and perceived competence predicted both identity reflection and initiative. Effects of age, sex, and perceptions of direct contact with the coach were not significant. Findings suggest that the quality of the coaching climate is an important predictor of the developmental benefits of sport participation and that one pathway by which the coaching climate has its effect on initiative and identity reflection is through developing youth self-perceptions.

The Effects of Autonomy-supportive Coaching, Need Satisfaction and Self-Perceptions on Initiative and Identity in Youth Swimmers

PubMed Central

Coatsworth, J. Douglas; Conroy, David E.

2015-01-01

This study tested a sequential process model linking youth sport coaching climates (perceived coach behaviors and perceived need satisfaction) to youth self-perceptions (perceived competence and global self-esteem) and youth development outcomes (initiative, identity reflection, identity exploration). A sample of 119 youth between the ages 10–18 who participated in a community-directed summer swim league completed questionnaires over the course of the seven-week season. Results indicated that coaches’ autonomy support, particularly via process-focused praise, predicted youth competence and relatedness need satisfaction in the coaching relationship. Youth competence need satisfaction predicted self-esteem indirectly via perceived competence. Finally, self-esteem predicted identity reflection and perceived competence predicted both identity reflection and initiative. Effects of age, sex, and perceptions of direct contact with the coach were not significant. Findings suggest that the quality of the coaching climate is an important predictor of the developmental benefits of sport participation and that one pathway by which the coaching climate has its effect on initiative and identity reflection is through developing youth self-perceptions. PMID:19271821

On the road toward formal reasoning: reasoning with factual causal and contrary-to-fact causal premises during early adolescence.

PubMed

Markovits, Henry

2014-12-01

Understanding the development of conditional (if-then) reasoning is critical for theoretical and educational reasons. Here we examined the hypothesis that there is a developmental transition between reasoning with true and contrary-to-fact (CF) causal conditionals. A total of 535 students between 11 and 14 years of age received priming conditions designed to encourage use of either a true or CF alternatives generation strategy and reasoning problems with true causal and CF causal premises (with counterbalanced order). Results show that priming had no effect on reasoning with true causal premises. By contrast, priming with CF alternatives significantly improved logical reasoning with CF premises. Analysis of the effect of order showed that reasoning with CF premises reduced logical responding among younger students but had no effect among older students. Results support the idea that there is a transition in the reasoning processes in this age range associated with the nature of the alternatives generation process required for logical reasoning with true and CF causal conditionals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using multiple cause-of-death data to investigate associations and causality between conditions listed on the death certificate.

PubMed

Redelings, Matthew D; Wise, Matthew; Sorvillo, Frank

2007-07-01

Death rarely results from only one cause, and it can be caused by a variety of factors. Multiple cause-of-death data files can list as many as 20 contributing causes of death in addition to the reported underlying cause of death. Analysis of multiple cause-of-death data can provide information on associations between causes of death, revealing common combinations of events or conditions which lead to death. Additionally, physicians report the causal train of events through which they believe that different conditions or events may have led to each other and ultimately caused death. In this paper, the authors discuss methods used in studying associations between reported causes of death and in investigating commonly reported causal pathways between events or conditions listed on the death certificate.

Posterior Structural Brain Volumes Differ in Maltreated Youth with and without Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

PubMed Central

Bellis, Michael D. De; Hooper, Stephen R.; Chen, Steven D.; Provenzale, James M.; Boyd, Brian D.; Glessner, Christopher E.; MacFall, James R.; Payne, Martha E.; Rybczynski, Robert; Woolley, Donald P

2016-01-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies of maltreated children with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) suggest that maltreatment-related PTSD is associated with adverse brain development. Maltreated youth resilient to chronic PTSD were not previously investigated and may elucidate neuro-mechanisms of the stress diathesis that leads to resilience to chronic PTSD. In this cross-sectional study, anatomical volumetric and corpus callosum diffusion tensor imaging measures were examined using MRI in maltreated youth with chronic PTSD (N=38), without PTSD (N=35), and non-maltreated participants (n=59). Groups were sociodemographically similar. Participants underwent assessments for strict inclusion/exclusion criteria and psychopathology. Maltreated youth with PTSD were psychobiologically different from maltreated youth without PTSD and non-maltreated controls. Maltreated youth with PTSD had smaller posterior cerebral and cerebellar gray matter volumes than maltreated youth without PTSD and non-maltreated participants. Cerebral and cerebellar gray matter volumes inversely correlated with PTSD symptoms. Posterior corpus callosum microstructure in pediatric maltreatment-related PTSD differed compared to maltreated youth without PTSD and controls. The group differences remained significant when controlling for psychopathology, numbers of Axis I disorders, and trauma load. Alterations of these posterior brain structures may result from a shared trauma related-mechanism or an inherent vulnerability that mediates the pathway from chronic PTSD to co-morbidity. PMID:26535944

Category transfer in sequential causal learning: the unbroken mechanism hypothesis.

PubMed

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn; von Sydow, Momme; Waldmann, Michael R

2011-07-01

The goal of the present set of studies is to explore the boundary conditions of category transfer in causal learning. Previous research has shown that people are capable of inducing categories based on causal learning input, and they often transfer these categories to new causal learning tasks. However, occasionally learners abandon the learned categories and induce new ones. Whereas previously it has been argued that transfer is only observed with essentialist categories in which the hidden properties are causally relevant for the target effect in the transfer relation, we here propose an alternative explanation, the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. This hypothesis claims that categories are transferred from a previously learned causal relation to a new causal relation when learners assume a causal mechanism linking the two relations that is continuous and unbroken. The findings of two causal learning experiments support the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality.

PubMed

Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

2016-03-14

Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment.

Causality networks from multivariate time series and application to epilepsy.

PubMed

Siggiridou, Elsa; Koutlis, Christos; Tsimpiris, Alkiviadis; Kimiskidis, Vasilios K; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris

2015-08-01

Granger causality and variants of this concept allow the study of complex dynamical systems as networks constructed from multivariate time series. In this work, a large number of Granger causality measures used to form causality networks from multivariate time series are assessed. For this, realizations on high dimensional coupled dynamical systems are considered and the performance of the Granger causality measures is evaluated, seeking for the measures that form networks closest to the true network of the dynamical system. In particular, the comparison focuses on Granger causality measures that reduce the state space dimension when many variables are observed. Further, the linear and nonlinear Granger causality measures of dimension reduction are compared to a standard Granger causality measure on electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings containing episodes of epileptiform discharges.

Correlates of parent-youth discordance about youth-witnessed violence: a brief report.

PubMed

Lewis, Terri; Thompson, Richard; Kotch, Jonathan B; Proctor, Laura J; Litrownik, Alan J; English, Diana J; Runyan, Desmond K; Wiley, Tisha R; Dubowitz, Howard

2013-01-01

Studies have consistently demonstrated a lack of agreement between youth and parent reports regarding youth-witnessed violence (YWV). However, little empirical investigation has been conducted on the correlates of disagreement. Concordance between youth and parents about YWV was examined in 766 parent-youth dyads from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LONGSCAN). Results showed that significantly more youth (42%) than parents (15%) reported YWV. Among the dyads in which at least one informant reported YWV (N = 344), we assessed whether youth delinquency, parental monitoring, parent-child relationship quality, history of child maltreatment, income, and parental depression were predictive of parent-youth concordance. Findings indicated that youth engagement in delinquent activities was higher in the groups in which the youth reported violence exposure. More empirical study is needed to assess correlates of agreement in high-risk youth to better inform associations found between exposures and outcomes as well as practice and policy for violence exposed youth.

Compact Representations of Extended Causal Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halpern, Joseph Y.; Hitchcock, Christopher

2013-01-01

Judea Pearl (2000) was the first to propose a definition of actual causation using causal models. A number of authors have suggested that an adequate account of actual causation must appeal not only to causal structure but also to considerations of "normality." In Halpern and Hitchcock (2011), we offer a definition of actual causation…

The causal structure of utility conditionals.

PubMed

Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

2013-01-01

The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

[FROM STATISTICAL ASSOCIATIONS TO SCIENTIFIC CAUSALITY].

PubMed

Golan, Daniel; Linn, Shay

2015-06-01

The pathogenesis of most chronic diseases is complex and probably involves the interaction of multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. One way to learn about disease triggers is from statistically significant associations in epidemiological studies. However, associations do not necessarily prove causation. Associations can commonly result from bias, confounding and reverse causation. Several paradigms for causality inference have been developed. Henle-Koch postulates are mainly applied for infectious diseases. Austin Bradford Hill's criteria may serve as a practical tool to weigh the evidence regarding the probability that a single new risk factor for a given disease is indeed causal. These criteria are irrelevant for estimating the causal relationship between exposure to a risk factor and disease whenever biological causality has been previously established. Thus, it is highly probable that past exposure of an individual to definite carcinogens is related to his cancer, even without proving an association between this exposure and cancer in his group. For multifactorial diseases, Rothman's model of interacting sets of component causes can be applied.

Youth Organizing: From Youth Development to School Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warren, Mark R.; Mira, Meredith; Nikundiwe, Thomas

2008-01-01

Over the past twenty years, youth organizing has grown across the country. Through organizing, young people identify issues of concern and mobilize their peers to build action campaigns to achieve their objectives. Youth organizing has been appreciated for its contributions to youth and community development. The authors use two case studies to…

Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Jan; Haehl, Felix M.; Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C.

2016-08-01

We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be reorganized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2 d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglemententropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

Youth lead youth in Marshall Islands.

PubMed

Johnson, G

1988-01-01

The promotion of family planning and birth control in Pacific countries is often frustrated by traditional and religious beliefs, if not deterred by tremendous funding and logistics problems. In the central Pacific republic of the Marshall Islands, however, youthful health workers are taking a unique approach to health promotion that has spurred acceptance of the once controversial subjects of family planning and birth control. A group known as Youth to Youth in Health is spearheading a family planning outreach drive in the schools and community in the Marshall Islands. Coupling health presentations with traditional island music and dance to produce lively health shows, the group's programs on family planning, birth control, nutrition, and cancer have struck a responsive chord in a culture known for its religious and traditional conservatism. The group makes creative use of puppet shows, skits, health songs, and pantomimes, interspersed with contemporary renditions of Marshall Islands music and traditional dances. These have rekindled pride in their culture among the group and sparked a sense of urgency about the need to improve health conditions in the islands. As evidence of the group's impact, family planning staff point to a nearly 4-fold rise in the number of youth clients under 19 years since the Youth to Youth started in mid-1986. Their combination of traditional custom with family planning and other health information has proved to be an innovative and needed program for the islands.

Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System, or CADDIS, is a website developed to help scientists and engineers in the Regions, States, and Tribes conduct causal assessments in aquatic systems to determine the cause of contamination.

Detectability of Granger causality for subsampled continuous-time neurophysiological processes.

PubMed

Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K

2017-01-01

Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological process. While it is well known that subsampling can lead to imputation of spurious causal connections where none exist, less is known about the effects of subsampling on the ability to reliably detect causal connections which do exist. We present a theoretical analysis of the effects of subsampling on Granger-causal inference. Neurophysiological processes typically feature signal propagation delays on multiple time scales; accordingly, we base our analysis on a distributed-lag, continuous-time stochastic model, and consider Granger causality in continuous time at finite prediction horizons. Via exact analytical solutions, we identify relationships among sampling frequency, underlying causal time scales and detectability of causalities. We reveal complex interactions between the time scale(s) of neural signal propagation and sampling frequency. We demonstrate that detectability decays exponentially as the sample time interval increases beyond causal delay times, identify detectability "black spots" and "sweet spots", and show that downsampling may potentially improve detectability. We also demonstrate that the invariance of Granger causality under causal, invertible filtering fails at finite prediction horizons, with particular implications for inference of Granger causality from fMRI data. Our analysis emphasises that sampling rates for causal analysis of neurophysiological time series should be informed by domain-specific time scales, and that state-space modelling should be preferred to purely autoregressive modelling. On the basis of a very general model that captures the structure of neurophysiological processes, we are able to help identify confounds, and offer practical insights, for successful detection of causal connectivity

Causal Responsibility and Counterfactuals

PubMed Central

Lagnado, David A; Gerstenberg, Tobias; Zultan, Ro'i

2013-01-01

How do people attribute responsibility in situations where the contributions of multiple agents combine to produce a joint outcome? The prevalence of over-determination in such cases makes this a difficult problem for counterfactual theories of causal responsibility. In this article, we explore a general framework for assigning responsibility in multiple agent contexts. We draw on the structural model account of actual causation (e.g., Halpern & Pearl, 2005) and its extension to responsibility judgments (Chockler & Halpern, 2004). We review the main theoretical and empirical issues that arise from this literature and propose a novel model of intuitive judgments of responsibility. This model is a function of both pivotality (whether an agent made a difference to the outcome) and criticality (how important the agent is perceived to be for the outcome, before any actions are taken). The model explains empirical results from previous studies and is supported by a new experiment that manipulates both pivotality and criticality. We also discuss possible extensions of this model to deal with a broader range of causal situations. Overall, our approach emphasizes the close interrelations between causality, counterfactuals, and responsibility attributions. PMID:23855451

On the origin of Hill's causal criteria.

PubMed

Morabia, A

1991-09-01

The rules to assess causation formulated by the eighteenth century Scottish philosopher David Hume are compared to Sir Austin Bradford Hill's causal criteria. The strength of the analogy between Hume's rules and Hill's causal criteria suggests that, irrespective of whether Hume's work was known to Hill or Hill's predecessors, Hume's thinking expresses a point of view still widely shared by contemporary epidemiologists. The lack of systematic experimental proof to causal inferences in epidemiology may explain the analogy of Hume's and Hill's, as opposed to Popper's, logic.

Dual Causality and the Autonomy of Biology.

PubMed

Bock, Walter J

2017-03-01

Ernst Mayr's concept of dual causality in biology with the two forms of causes (proximate and ultimate) continues to provide an essential foundation for the philosophy of biology. They are equivalent to functional (=proximate) and evolutionary (=ultimate) causes with both required for full biological explanations. The natural sciences can be classified into nomological, historical nomological and historical dual causality, the last including only biology. Because evolutionary causality is unique to biology and must be included for all complete biological explanations, biology is autonomous from the physical sciences.

Can chance cause cancer? A causal consideration.

PubMed

Stensrud, Mats Julius; Strohmaier, Susanne; Valberg, Morten; Aalen, Odd Olai

2017-04-01

The role of randomness, environment and genetics in cancer development is debated. We approach the discussion by using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. By briefly considering the underlying assumptions, we suggest that the antagonising views arise due to estimation of substantially different causal effects. These effects may be hard to interpret, and the results cannot be immediately compared. Indeed, it is not clear whether it is possible to define a causal effect of chance at all. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finding shelter: two-year housing trajectories among homeless youth.

PubMed

Tevendale, Heather D; Comulada, W Scott; Lightfoot, Marguerita A

2011-12-01

The aim of this study was to (1) identify trajectories of homeless youth remaining sheltered or returning to shelter over a period of 2 years, and (2) to identify predictors of these trajectories. A sample of 426 individuals aged 14-24 years receiving services at homeless youth serving agencies completed six assessments over 2 years. Latent class growth analysis was applied to the reports of whether youth had been inconsistently sheltered (i.e., living on the street or in a squat, abandoned building, or automobile) or consistently sheltered (i.e., not living in any of those settings) during the past 3 months. Three trajectories of homeless youth remaining sheltered or returning to shelter were identified: consistently sheltered (approximately 41% of the sample); inconsistently sheltered, short-term (approximately 20%); and inconsistently sheltered, long-term (approximately 39%). Being able to go home and having not left of one's own accord predicted greater likelihood of membership in the short-term versus the long-term inconsistently sheltered trajectory. Younger age, not using drugs other than alcohol or marijuana, less involvement in informal sector activities, being able to go home, and having been homeless for <1 year predicted membership in the consistently sheltered groups versus the long-term inconsistently sheltered groups in the multivariate analyses. Findings suggest that being able to return home is more important than the degree of individual impairment (e.g., substance use or mental health problems) when determining the likelihood that a homeless youth follows a more or a less chronically homeless pathway. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Study on localization of epileptic focus based on causality analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Shaojie; Li, Hanjun; Tang, Xiaoying

2018-05-01

In this paper, we considered that the ECoG signal contain abundant pathological information, which can be used for the localization of epileptic focus before epileptic seizures in 1-2 mins. In order to validate this hypothesis, cutting the ECoG into three stages: before seizure, seizure and after seizure, then through using Granger causality algorithm, PSI causality algorithm, Transfer Entropy causality algorithm at different stages of epilepsy ECoG, we were able to do the causality analysis of ECoG data. The results have shown that there is significant difference with the causality value of the epileptic focus area in before seizure, seizure and after seizure. An increase is in the causality value of each channel during epileptic seizure. After epileptic seizure, the causality between the channels showed a downward trend, but the difference was not obvious. The difference of the causality provides a reliable technical method to assist the clinical diagnosis of epileptic focus.

Identifying Causal Variants at Loci with Multiple Signals of Association

PubMed Central

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2014-01-01

Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20–50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. PMID:25104515

Resettlement experiences and resilience in refugee youth in Perth, Western Australia.

PubMed

Earnest, Jaya; Mansi, Ruth; Bayati, Sara; Earnest, Joel Anthony; Thompson, Sandra C

2015-06-10

In Australia, the two major pathways of refugee entry are the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees resettlement programme and irregular maritime arrivals (IMAs) seeking asylum. The Australian Government's policies towards IMAs since July 2013 are controversial, uncompromising and consistently harsh, with asylum seekers held in detention centres for prolonged periods. Refugees and asylum seekers have distinct and unique stressors that make resettlement difficult. This exploratory study examines resettlement experiences for refugee youth in Western Australia using the psychosocial conceptual framework and qualitative methods. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were undertaken with verbatim transcripts analysed using thematic analysis to identify themes. Themes documented that language and its impact, and experience with education, health, and social activities, support structures provided to youth and supporting future aspirations as critical to successful resettlement. This exploratory study contributes to developing a broader understanding of the resettlement experiences of refugee youth, drawing on their current and past experiences, cultural differences and mechanisms for coping. Fluency in English language, especially spoken, was a facilitator of successful resettlement. Our results align with previous studies documenting that support programs are vital for successful resettlement. Although faced with immense difficulties refugee youth are resilient, want to succeed and have aspirations for the future. Strategies and recommendations suggested by refugee youth themselves could be used for developing interventions to assist successful resettlement.

Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

2012-01-01

Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of…

Processing of Positive-Causal and Negative-Causal Coherence Relations in Primary School Children and Adults: A Test of the Cumulative Cognitive Complexity Approach in German

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knoepke, Julia; Richter, Tobias; Isberner, Maj-Britt; Naumann, Johannes; Neeb, Yvonne; Weinert, Sabine

2017-01-01

Establishing local coherence relations is central to text comprehension. Positive-causal coherence relations link a cause and its consequence, whereas negative-causal coherence relations add a contrastive meaning (negation) to the causal link. According to the cumulative cognitive complexity approach, negative-causal coherence relations are…

Women's Work Pathways Across the Life Course.

PubMed

Damaske, Sarah; Frech, Adrianne

2016-04-01

Despite numerous changes in women's employment in the latter half of the twentieth century, women's employment continues to be uneven and stalled. Drawing from data on women's weekly work hours in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), we identify significant inequality in women's labor force experiences across adulthood. We find two pathways of stable full-time work for women, three pathways of part-time employment, and a pathway of unpaid labor. A majority of women follow one of the two full-time work pathways, while fewer than 10% follow a pathway of unpaid labor. Our findings provide evidence of the lasting influence of work-family conflict and early socioeconomic advantages and disadvantages on women's work pathways. Indeed, race, poverty, educational attainment, and early family characteristics significantly shaped women's work careers. Work-family opportunities and constraints also were related to women's work hours, as were a woman's gendered beliefs and expectations. We conclude that women's employment pathways are a product of both their resources and changing social environment as well as individual agency. Significantly, we point to social stratification, gender ideologies, and work-family constraints, all working in concert, as key explanations for how women are "tracked" onto work pathways from an early age.

Causal strength induction from time series data.

PubMed

Soo, Kevin W; Rottman, Benjamin M

2018-04-01

One challenge when inferring the strength of cause-effect relations from time series data is that the cause and/or effect can exhibit temporal trends. If temporal trends are not accounted for, a learner could infer that a causal relation exists when it does not, or even infer that there is a positive causal relation when the relation is negative, or vice versa. We propose that learners use a simple heuristic to control for temporal trends-that they focus not on the states of the cause and effect at a given instant, but on how the cause and effect change from one observation to the next, which we call transitions. Six experiments were conducted to understand how people infer causal strength from time series data. We found that participants indeed use transitions in addition to states, which helps them to reach more accurate causal judgments (Experiments 1A and 1B). Participants use transitions more when the stimuli are presented in a naturalistic visual format than a numerical format (Experiment 2), and the effect of transitions is not driven by primacy or recency effects (Experiment 3). Finally, we found that participants primarily use the direction in which variables change rather than the magnitude of the change for estimating causal strength (Experiments 4 and 5). Collectively, these studies provide evidence that people often use a simple yet effective heuristic for inferring causal strength from time series data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Pathways to psychosis in cannabis abuse.

PubMed

Shrivastava, Amresh; Johnston, Megan; Terpstra, Kristen; Bureau, Yves

2015-04-01

Cannabis has been implicated as a risk factor for the development of schizophrenia, but the exact biological mechanisms remain unclear. In this review, we attempt to understand the neurobiological pathways that link cannabis use to schizophrenia. This has been an area of great debate; despite similarities between cannabis users and schizophrenia patients, the evidence is not sufficient to establish cause-and-effect. There have been advances in the understanding of the mechanisms of cannabis dependence as well as the role of the cannabinoid system in the development of psychosis and schizophrenia. The neurobiological mechanisms associated with the development of psychosis and effects from cannabis use may be similar but remain elusive. In order to better understand these associations, this paper will show common neurobiological and neuroanatomical changes as well as common cognitive dysfunction in cannabis users and patients of schizophrenia. We conclude that epidemiologic evidence highlights potential causal links; however, neurobiological evidence for causality remains weak.

Processing of positive-causal and negative-causal coherence relations in primary school children and adults: a test of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach in German.

PubMed

Knoepke, Julia; Richter, Tobias; Isberner, Maj-Britt; Naumann, Johannes; Neeb, Yvonne; Weinert, Sabine

2017-03-01

Establishing local coherence relations is central to text comprehension. Positive-causal coherence relations link a cause and its consequence, whereas negative-causal coherence relations add a contrastive meaning (negation) to the causal link. According to the cumulative cognitive complexity approach, negative-causal coherence relations are cognitively more complex than positive-causal ones. Therefore, they require greater cognitive effort during text comprehension and are acquired later in language development. The present cross-sectional study tested these predictions for German primary school children from Grades 1 to 4 and adults in reading and listening comprehension. Accuracy data in a semantic verification task support the predictions of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach. Negative-causal coherence relations are cognitively more demanding than positive-causal ones. Moreover, our findings indicate that children's comprehension of negative-causal coherence relations continues to develop throughout the course of primary school. Findings are discussed with respect to the generalizability of the cumulative cognitive complexity approach to German.

Explaining quantum correlations through evolution of causal models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Robin; Chapman, Robert J.; Ferrie, Christopher; Granade, Christopher; Kueng, Richard; Naoumenko, Daniel; Flammia, Steven T.; Peruzzo, Alberto

2017-04-01

We propose a framework for the systematic and quantitative generalization of Bell's theorem using causal networks. We first consider the multiobjective optimization problem of matching observed data while minimizing the causal effect of nonlocal variables and prove an inequality for the optimal region that both strengthens and generalizes Bell's theorem. To solve the optimization problem (rather than simply bound it), we develop a genetic algorithm treating as individuals causal networks. By applying our algorithm to a photonic Bell experiment, we demonstrate the trade-off between the quantitative relaxation of one or more local causality assumptions and the ability of data to match quantum correlations.

fMRI assessment of neuroplasticity in youths with neurodevelopmental-associated motor disorders after piano training.

PubMed

Alves-Pinto, Ana; Turova, Varvara; Blumenstein, Tobias; Thienel, Anna; Wohlschläger, Afra; Lampe, Renée

2015-01-01

Damage to the developing brain may lead to lifelong motor impairments namely of the hand function. Playing an instrument combines the execution of gross and fine motor movements with direct auditory feedback of performance and with emotional value. This motor-associated sensory information may work as a self-control of motor performance in therapeutic settings. The current study examined the occurrence of neuronal changes associated to piano training in youths with neurodevelopmental-associated hand motor deficits. Functional magnetic resonance imaging responses evoked during a finger tapping task in a group of ten youths with neuromotor impairments that received individualized piano lessons for eighteen months were analyzed. Functional imaging data obtained before and after the piano training was compared to that obtained from a similar group of six youths who received no training during the same period of time. Dynamic causal modeling of functional data indicated an increase in positive connectivity from the left primary motor cortical area to the right cerebellum from before to after the piano training. A wide variability across patients was observed and further studies remain necessary to clarify the neurophysiological basis of the effects of piano training in hand motor function of patients with neurodevelopmental motor disorders. Copyright © 2014 European Paediatric Neurology Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In Support of Clinical Case Reports: A System of Causality Assessment

PubMed Central

Hamre, Harald J.; Kienle, Gunver S.

2013-01-01

The usefulness of clinical research depends on an assessment of causality. This assessment determines what constitutes clinical evidence. Case reports are an example of evidence that is frequently overlooked because it is believed they cannot address causal links between treatment and outcomes. This may be a mistake. Clarity on the topic of causality and its assessment will be of benefit for researchers and clinicians. This article outlines an overall system of causality and causality assessment. The system proposed involves two dimensions: horizontal and vertical; each of these dimensions consists of three different types of causality and three corresponding types of causality assessment. Included in this system are diverse forms of case causality illustrated with examples from everyday life and clinical medicine. Assessing case causality can complement conventional clinical research in an era of personalized medicine. PMID:24416665

A Preliminary Investigation of Pathways to Inflated Responsibility Beliefs in Children with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.

PubMed

Collins, Lindsey M; Coles, Meredith E

2018-05-01

Cognitive theorists posit that inflated responsibility beliefs contribute to the development of obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). Salkovskis et al. (1999) proposed that experiencing heightened responsibility, overprotective parents and rigid rules, and thinking one influenced or caused a negative life event act as 'pathways' to the development of inflated responsibility beliefs, thereby increasing risk for OCD. Studies in adults with OCD and non-clinical adolescents support the link between these experiences and responsibility beliefs (Coles et al., 2015; Halvaiepour and Nosratabadi, 2015), but the theory has never been tested in youth with current OCD. We provided an initial test of the theory by Salkovskis et al. (1999) in youth with OCD. We predicted that childhood experiences proposed by Salkovskis et al. (1999) would correlate positively with responsibility and harm beliefs and OCD symptom severity. Twenty youth with OCD (age 9‒16 years) completed a new child-report measure of the experiences hypothesized by Salkovskis et al. (1999), the Pathways to Inflated Responsibility Beliefs Scale-Child Version (PIRBS-CV). Youth also completed the Obsessive Beliefs Questionnaire-Child Version (Coles et al., 2010) and the Obsessive Compulsive Inventory-Child Version (Foa et al., 2010). Consistent with hypotheses, the PIRBS-CV was significantly related to responsibility and harm beliefs and OCD symptom severity. Results provide initial support for the theory proposed by Salkovskis et al. (1999) as applied to youth with OCD. Future studies are needed to further assess the model in early-onset OCD.

Imputation of adverse drug reactions: Causality assessment in hospitals

PubMed Central

Mastroianni, Patricia de Carvalho

2017-01-01

Background & objectives Different algorithms have been developed to standardize the causality assessment of adverse drug reactions (ADR). Although most share common characteristics, the results of the causality assessment are variable depending on the algorithm used. Therefore, using 10 different algorithms, the study aimed to compare inter-rater and multi-rater agreement for ADR causality assessment and identify the most consistent to hospitals. Methods Using ten causality algorithms, four judges independently assessed the first 44 cases of ADRs reported during the first year of implementation of a risk management service in a medium complexity hospital in the state of Sao Paulo (Brazil). Owing to variations in the terminology used for causality, the equivalent imputation terms were grouped into four categories: definite, probable, possible and unlikely. Inter-rater and multi-rater agreement analysis was performed by calculating the Cohen´s and Light´s kappa coefficients, respectively. Results None of the algorithms showed 100% reproducibility in the causal imputation. Fair inter-rater and multi-rater agreement was found. Emanuele (1984) and WHO-UMC (2010) algorithms showed a fair rate of agreement between the judges (k = 0.36). Interpretation & conclusions Although the ADR causality assessment algorithms were poorly reproducible, our data suggest that WHO-UMC algorithm is the most consistent for imputation in hospitals, since it allows evaluating the quality of the report. However, to improve the ability of assessing the causality using algorithms, it is necessary to include criteria for the evaluation of drug-related problems, which may be related to confounding variables that underestimate the causal association. PMID:28166274

Causal inference from observational data.

PubMed

Listl, Stefan; Jürges, Hendrik; Watt, Richard G

2016-10-01

Randomized controlled trials have long been considered the 'gold standard' for causal inference in clinical research. In the absence of randomized experiments, identification of reliable intervention points to improve oral health is often perceived as a challenge. But other fields of science, such as social science, have always been challenged by ethical constraints to conducting randomized controlled trials. Methods have been established to make causal inference using observational data, and these methods are becoming increasingly relevant in clinical medicine, health policy and public health research. This study provides an overview of state-of-the-art methods specifically designed for causal inference in observational data, including difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses, instrumental variables (IV), regression discontinuity designs (RDD) and fixed-effects panel data analysis. The described methods may be particularly useful in dental research, not least because of the increasing availability of routinely collected administrative data and electronic health records ('big data'). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Longitudinal Analysis of Young Adult Pathways to STEMH Occupations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fletcher, Edward C., Jr.; Tyson, Will

2017-01-01

In this study, we determined the educational pathways and key life course transitions of young adults who enter Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics, and Health (STEMH) technician and professional jobs using the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) dataset, tracking high school students from 1997 to adulthood in 2009. Using…

Identifying causal variants at loci with multiple signals of association.

PubMed

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2014-10-01

Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20-50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

PubMed

Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.

Attributions of Social Causality and Responsibility.

DTIC Science & Technology

The paper reviews relevant research on attributions of causality and attributions of responsibility . It is suggested that inconsistencies among...findings in the attribution literature may be due to discrepancies between the meaning of ’ responsibility ’ and ’causality’. Definitions for the two terms...opposed to responsibility attribution may serve to eliminate some of the problems in attribution research. (Author)

Understanding Intersectionality and Resiliency among Transgender Adolescents: Exploring Pathways among Peer Victimization, School Belonging, and Drug Use.

PubMed

Hatchel, Tyler; Marx, Robert

2018-06-19

Transgender youth experience elevated levels of victimization and may therefore report greater drug use than their cisgender peers, yet little is known about protective factors like school belonging that may mediate this relationship. Further, scant research has explored the experiences of youth at the intersection of transgender identity and youth of color status or low socioeconomic status, especially with respect to these multiple minority statuses’ associations with peer victimization, drug use, and school belonging. Using data from the California Healthy Kids Survey, the current study employs structural equation modeling to explore the relationships among school belonging, peer victimization, and drug use for transgender youth. Findings indicate that school belonging does mediate the pathway between peer victimization and drug use for transgender youth and that although youth of color experience greater victimization, they do not engage in greater drug use than their white transgender peers. Based on these results, those concerned with the healthy futures of transgender youth should advocate for more open and affirming school climates that engender a sense of belonging and treat transgender youth with dignity and fairness.

Youth and Peace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barliba, Dan Mihai

1984-01-01

The complex and dynamic relationship of youth and peace is examined, educational priorities regarding peace education of youth are discussed, and characterisitcs of youth movements for peace and disarmament are described. Peace is one of the main priorities expressed by the themes of International Youth Year 1985. (RM)

Private schooling and admission to medicine: a case study using matched samples and causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Houston, Muir; Osborne, Michael; Rimmer, Russell

2015-08-20

Are applicants from private schools advantaged in gaining entry to degrees in medicine? This is of international significance and there is continuing research in a range of nations including the USA, the UK, other English-speaking nations and EU countries. Our purpose is to seek causal explanations using a quantitative approach. We took as a case study admission to medicine in the UK and drew samples of those who attended private schools and those who did not, with sample members matched on background characteristics. Unlike other studies in the area, causal mediation analysis was applied to resolve private-school influence into direct and indirect effects. In so doing, we sought a benchmark, using data for 2004, against which the effectiveness of policies adopted over the past decade can be assessed. Private schooling improved admission likelihood. This did not occur indirectly via the effect of school type on academic performance; but arose directly from attending private schools. A sensitivity analysis suggests this finding is unlikely to be eliminated by the influence of an unobserved variable. Academic excellence is not a certain pathway into medicine at university; yet applying with good grades after attending private school is more certain. The results of our paper differ from those in an earlier observational study and find support in a later study. Consideration of sources of difference from the earlier observational study suggest the causal approach offers substantial benefits and the consequences in the causal study for gender, ethnicity, socio-economic classification and region of residence provide a benchmark for assessing policy in future research.

Nonlinear parametric model for Granger causality of time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinazzo, Daniele; Pellicoro, Mario; Stramaglia, Sebastiano

2006-06-01

The notion of Granger causality between two time series examines if the prediction of one series could be improved by incorporating information of the other. In particular, if the prediction error of the first time series is reduced by including measurements from the second time series, then the second time series is said to have a causal influence on the first one. We propose a radial basis function approach to nonlinear Granger causality. The proposed model is not constrained to be additive in variables from the two time series and can approximate any function of these variables, still being suitable to evaluate causality. Usefulness of this measure of causality is shown in two applications. In the first application, a physiological one, we consider time series of heart rate and blood pressure in congestive heart failure patients and patients affected by sepsis: we find that sepsis patients, unlike congestive heart failure patients, show symmetric causal relationships between the two time series. In the second application, we consider the feedback loop in a model of excitatory and inhibitory neurons: we find that in this system causality measures the combined influence of couplings and membrane time constants.

New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of “signed path coefficient Granger causality,” a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an “excitatory” or “inhibitory” influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation. PMID:27833547

New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of "signed path coefficient Granger causality," a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an "excitatory" or "inhibitory" influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation.

Extracurricular Participation and Course Performance in the Middle Grades: A Study of Low-Income, Urban Youth.

PubMed

Schwartz, Kate; Cappella, Elise; Seidman, Edward

2015-12-01

The transition to middle/junior high school is associated with declines in students' academic performance, especially among low-income, urban youth. Developmental psychologists posit such declines are due to a poor fit between the needs of early adolescents-industry, identity, and autonomy-and the environment of their new schools. Extracurricular participation during these years may act as a buffer for youth, providing a setting for development outside the classroom. The current study examines participation within and across activity settings among low-income, urban youth in New York City over this transition. Using the Adolescent Pathways Project data, this study explores how such participation relates to course performance. We find that a large percentage of youth are minimally or uninvolved in extracurricular activities during these years; that participation varies within youth across time; and that the association between participation and course performance varies by activity setting. Youth who participate frequently in community or athletic settings or have high participation in two or more settings are found to have higher GPAs in the year in which they participate and youth who participate frequently in the religious setting are found to have lower GPAs. High participation in more than two settings may be detrimental.

Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M

2018-06-01

The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

Partial Granger causality--eliminating exogenous inputs and latent variables.

PubMed

Guo, Shuixia; Seth, Anil K; Kendrick, Keith M; Zhou, Cong; Feng, Jianfeng

2008-07-15

Attempts to identify causal interactions in multivariable biological time series (e.g., gene data, protein data, physiological data) can be undermined by the confounding influence of environmental (exogenous) inputs. Compounding this problem, we are commonly only able to record a subset of all related variables in a system. These recorded variables are likely to be influenced by unrecorded (latent) variables. To address this problem, we introduce a novel variant of a widely used statistical measure of causality--Granger causality--that is inspired by the definition of partial correlation. Our 'partial Granger causality' measure is extensively tested with toy models, both linear and nonlinear, and is applied to experimental data: in vivo multielectrode array (MEA) local field potentials (LFPs) recorded from the inferotemporal cortex of sheep. Our results demonstrate that partial Granger causality can reveal the underlying interactions among elements in a network in the presence of exogenous inputs and latent variables in many cases where the existing conditional Granger causality fails.

Multivariate causal attribution and cost-effectiveness of a national mass media campaign in the Philippines.

PubMed

Kincaid, D Lawrence; Do, Mai Phuong

2006-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis is based on a simple formula. A dollar estimate of the total cost to conduct a program is divided by the number of people estimated to have been affected by it in terms of some intended outcome. The direct, total costs of most communication campaigns are usually available. Estimating the amount of effect that can be attributed to the communication alone, however is problematical in full-coverage, mass media campaigns where the randomized control group design is not feasible. Single-equation, multiple regression analysis controls for confounding variables but does not adequately address the issue of causal attribution. In this article, multivariate causal attribution (MCA) methods are applied to data from a sample survey of 1,516 married women in the Philippines to obtain a valid measure of the number of new adopters of modern contraceptives that can be causally attributed to a national mass media campaign and to calculate its cost-effectiveness. The MCA analysis uses structural equation modeling to test the causal pathways and to test for endogeneity, biprobit analysis to test for direct effects of the campaign and endogeneity, and propensity score matching to create a statistically equivalent, matched control group that approximates the results that would have been obtained from a randomized control group design. The MCA results support the conclusion that the observed, 6.4 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive use can be attributed to the national mass media campaign and to its indirect effects on attitudes toward contraceptives. This net increase represented 348,695 new adopters in the population of married women at a cost of U.S. $1.57 per new adopter.

Determining causal miRNAs and their signaling cascade in diseases using an influence diffusion model.

PubMed

Nalluri, Joseph J; Rana, Pratip; Barh, Debmalya; Azevedo, Vasco; Dinh, Thang N; Vladimirov, Vladimir; Ghosh, Preetam

2017-08-15

In recent studies, miRNAs have been found to be extremely influential in many of the essential biological processes. They exhibit a self-regulatory mechanism through which they act as positive/negative regulators of expression of genes and other miRNAs. This has direct implications in the regulation of various pathophysiological conditions, signaling pathways and different types of cancers. Studying miRNA-disease associations has been an extensive area of research; however deciphering miRNA-miRNA network regulatory patterns in several diseases remains a challenge. In this study, we use information diffusion theory to quantify the influence diffusion in a miRNA-miRNA regulation network across multiple disease categories. Our proposed methodology determines the critical disease specific miRNAs which play a causal role in their signaling cascade and hence may regulate disease progression. We extensively validate our framework using existing computational tools from the literature. Furthermore, we implement our framework on a comprehensive miRNA expression data set for alcohol dependence and identify the causal miRNAs for alcohol-dependency in patients which were validated by the phase-shift in their expression scores towards the early stages of the disease. Finally, our computational framework for identifying causal miRNAs implicated in diseases is available as a free online tool for the greater scientific community.

Inductive reasoning about causally transmitted properties.

PubMed

Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2008-11-01

Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates' context-sensitive use of taxonomic and food web knowledge to guide reasoning about causal transmission and shows good qualitative agreement between model predictions and human inferences. A second experiment demonstrates strong quantitative and qualitative fits to inferences about a more complex artificial food web. A third experiment investigates human reasoning about complex novel food webs where species have known taxonomic relations. Results demonstrate a double-dissociation between the predictions of our causal model and a related taxonomic model [Kemp, C., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2003). Learning domain structures. In Proceedings of the 25th annual conference of the cognitive science society]: the causal model predicts human inferences about diseases but not genes, while the taxonomic model predicts human inferences about genes but not diseases. We contrast our framework with previous models of category-based induction and previous formal instantiations of intuitive theories, and outline challenges in developing a complete model of context-sensitive reasoning.

Neural correlates of continuous causal word generation.

PubMed

Wende, Kim C; Straube, Benjamin; Stratmann, Mirjam; Sommer, Jens; Kircher, Tilo; Nagels, Arne

2012-09-01

Causality provides a natural structure for organizing our experience and language. Causal reasoning during speech production is a distinct aspect of verbal communication, whose related brain processes are yet unknown. The aim of the current study was to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying the continuous generation of cause-and-effect coherences during overt word production. During fMRI data acquisition participants performed three verbal fluency tasks on identical cue words: A novel causal verbal fluency task (CVF), requiring the production of multiple reasons to a given cue word (e.g. reasons for heat are fire, sun etc.), a semantic (free association, FA, e.g. associations with heat are sweat, shower etc.) and a phonological control task (phonological verbal fluency, PVF, e.g. rhymes with heat are meat, wheat etc.). We found that, in contrast to PVF, both CVF and FA activated a left lateralized network encompassing inferior frontal, inferior parietal and angular regions, with further bilateral activation in middle and inferior as well as superior temporal gyri and the cerebellum. For CVF contrasted against FA, we found greater bold responses only in the left middle frontal cortex. Large overlaps in the neural activations during free association and causal verbal fluency indicate that the access to causal relationships between verbal concepts is at least partly based on the semantic neural network. The selective activation in the left middle frontal cortex for causal verbal fluency suggests that distinct neural processes related to cause-and-effect-relations are associated with the recruitment of middle frontal brain areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The association between home smoking restrictions and youth smoking behaviour: a review.

PubMed

Emory, Kristen; Saquib, Nazmus; Gilpin, Elizabeth A; Pierce, John P

2010-12-01

To review the available evidence for home smoking restrictions as a useful tool in the prevention of youth smoking and to make recommendations for further research. A PubMed search (1 January 1990 to 26 January 2010) identified studies involving youth ≤18 years using extensive criteria. In all, 17 studies relating home smoking restrictions to youth smoking behaviour were identified from titles, abstracts or the full text, as required. Two additional articles were identified by other means. KE, NS and EG reviewed the studies. Differences in interpretation were resolved by discussion, with EG making final decisions. Of the 19 studies, 16 (including the only 2 longitudinal studies) showed at least marginal evidence of an association of home smoking restrictions with reduced adolescent smoking behaviours. Associations were more numerous and stronger in homes without adult smokers, suggesting that even in such homes, lack of a smoke-free home may undermine the parental value of not smoking. Definitions of home smoking rules, adolescent smoking behaviour and treatment of parental smoking varied widely among studies. It is recommend that future research: (1) contrast smoke-free homes for everyone against all others, (2) included an interaction term for parental smoking and having a smoke-free home, or conduct separate analyses for homes with and without parental or other adults smokers and (3) examine early and later stages of the smoking uptake continuum. While the evidence is suggestive for an effect, further research is required to establish causality using longitudinal designs.

Preschool Children Learn about Causal Structure from Conditional Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, Laura E.; Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark

2007-01-01

The conditional intervention principle is a formal principle that relates patterns of interventions and outcomes to causal structure. It is a central assumption of experimental design and the causal Bayes net formalism. Two studies suggest that preschoolers can use the conditional intervention principle to distinguish causal chains, common cause…

Essays on Causal Inference for Public Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zajonc, Tristan

2012-01-01

Effective policymaking requires understanding the causal effects of competing proposals. Relevant causal quantities include proposals' expected effect on different groups of recipients, the impact of policies over time, the potential trade-offs between competing objectives, and, ultimately, the optimal policy. This dissertation studies causal…

A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry.

PubMed

Saxe, Glenn N; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C; Aliferis, Constantin

2016-01-01

Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach--the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method-designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a 'gold standard' dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry.

The Missing Elements of Change. A Response to "Youth Change Agents: Comparing the Sociopolitical Identities of Youth Organizers and Youth Commissioners"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldwasser, Matthew L.

2016-01-01

By establishing a set of theoretical frameworks to view and compare the work of youth organizers and youth commissioners, and through personal interviews, the authors of the paper "Youth Change Agents: Comparing the Sociopolitical Identities of Youth Organizers and Youth Commissioners" presented their explanation of the development of…

Aging and Retrospective Revaluation of Causal Learning

PubMed Central

Mutter, Sharon A.; Atchley, Anthony R.; Plumlee, Leslie M.

2011-01-01

In a two-stage causal learning task, young and older participants first learned which foods presented in compound were followed by an allergic reaction (e.g., STEAK - BEANS → REACTION) and then the causal efficacy of one food from these compounds was revalued (e.g., BEANS → NO REACTION). In Experiment 1, unrelated food pairs were used and although there were no age differences in compound or single cue – outcome learning, older adults did not retrospectively revalue the causal efficacy of the absent target cues (e.g. STEAK). However, they had weaker within – compound associations for the unrelated foods and this may have prevented them from retrieving the representations of these cues. In Experiment 2, older adults still showed no retrospective revaluation of absent cues even though compound food cues with pre-existing associations were used (e.g., STEAK - POTATO) and they received additional learning trials. Finally, in Experiment 3, older adults revalued the causal efficacy of the target cues when small, unobtrusive icons of these cues were present during single cue revaluation. These findings suggest that age – related deficits in causal learning for absent cues are due to ineffective associative binding and reactivation processes. PMID:21843025

Extension Youth Educators' Technology Use in Youth Development Programming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McClure, Carli; Buquoi, Brittany; Kotrlik, Joe W.; Machtmes, Krisanna; Bunch, J. C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this descriptive-correlational study was to determine the use of technology in youth programming by Extension youth development educators in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Data were collected via e-mail and a SurveyMonkey© questionnaire. Extension educators are using some technology in youth development programming. More…

Causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators.

PubMed

Daniel, R M; De Stavola, B L; Cousens, S N; Vansteelandt, S

2015-03-01

In diverse fields of empirical research-including many in the biological sciences-attempts are made to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome into its effects via a number of different pathways. For example, we may wish to separate the effect of heavy alcohol consumption on systolic blood pressure (SBP) into effects via body mass index (BMI), via gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and via other pathways. Much progress has been made, mainly due to contributions from the field of causal inference, in understanding the precise nature of statistical estimands that capture such intuitive effects, the assumptions under which they can be identified, and statistical methods for doing so. These contributions have focused almost entirely on settings with a single mediator, or a set of mediators considered en bloc; in many applications, however, researchers attempt a much more ambitious decomposition into numerous path-specific effects through many mediators. In this article, we give counterfactual definitions of such path-specific estimands in settings with multiple mediators, when earlier mediators may affect later ones, showing that there are many ways in which decomposition can be done. We discuss the strong assumptions under which the effects are identified, suggesting a sensitivity analysis approach when a particular subset of the assumptions cannot be justified. These ideas are illustrated using data on alcohol consumption, SBP, BMI, and GGT from the Izhevsk Family Study. We aim to bridge the gap from "single mediator theory" to "multiple mediator practice," highlighting the ambitious nature of this endeavor and giving practical suggestions on how to proceed. © 2014 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

Alcohol brand use of youth-appealing advertising and consumption by youth and adults

PubMed Central

Padon, Alisa A.; Rimal, Rajiv N.; Siegel, Michael; DeJong, William; Naimi, Timothy S.; JernFigan, David H.

2018-01-01

Background Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been shown to be an important contributor to the problem of underage drinking in the U.S. More work is needed on identifying and minimizing content with particular appeal to youth. Design and Methods We tested the association between the youth-appeal of marketing content of televised alcohol advertisements and the brand-specific alcohol consumption of both underage youth and adults. We used existing data from three sources: a brand-specific alcohol consumption survey among underage youth (N=1032), a brand-specific alcohol consumption survey among adults (N ~13,000), and an analysis of content appealing to youth (CAY) in a sample of televised alcohol advertisements (n=96) aired during the youth survey. The association between CAY scores for the 96 alcohol ads and youth (age 13-20) versus adult (age 21+) consumption of those ads’ brands was tested through bivariate and multivariate models. Results Brand CAY scores were (a) positively associated with brand-specific youth consumption after controlling for adult brand consumption; (b) positively associated with a ratio of youth-toadult brand-specific consumption; and (c) not associated with adult brand consumption. Conclusions Alcohol brands with youth-appealing advertising are consumed more often by youth than adults, indicating that these ads may be more persuasive to relatively younger audiences, and that youth are not simply mirroring adult consumption patterns in their choice of brands. Future research should consider the content of alcohol advertising when testing marketing effects on youth drinking, and surveillance efforts might focus on brands popular among youth. Significance for public healthYouth are overexposed to alcohol advertising. This contributes to youth having positive expectations of drinking, initiating drinking, and drinking more in quantity and frequency. The alcohol industry’s self-regulatory guidelines stipulate that marketing content

An Efficient Two-Tier Causal Protocol for Mobile Distributed Systems

PubMed Central

Dominguez, Eduardo Lopez; Pomares Hernandez, Saul E.; Gomez, Gustavo Rodriguez; Medina, Maria Auxilio

2013-01-01

Causal ordering is a useful tool for mobile distributed systems (MDS) to reduce the non-determinism induced by three main aspects: host mobility, asynchronous execution, and unpredictable communication delays. Several causal protocols for MDS exist. Most of them, in order to reduce the overhead and the computational cost over wireless channels and mobile hosts (MH), ensure causal ordering at and according to the causal view of the Base Stations. Nevertheless, these protocols introduce certain disadvantage, such as unnecessary inhibition at the delivery of messages. In this paper, we present an efficient causal protocol for groupware that satisfies the MDS's constraints, avoiding unnecessary inhibitions and ensuring the causal delivery based on the view of the MHs. One interesting aspect of our protocol is that it dynamically adapts the causal information attached to each message based on the number of messages with immediate dependency relation, and this is not directly proportional to the number of MHs. PMID:23585828

A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bean, John P.

A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

Testing the causal theory of reference.

PubMed

Domaneschi, Filippo; Vignolo, Massimiliano; Di Paola, Simona

2017-04-01

Theories of reference are a crucial research topic in analytic philosophy. Since the publication of Kripke's Naming and Necessity, most philosophers have endorsed the causal/historical theory of reference. The goal of this paper is twofold: (i) to discuss a method for testing experimentally the causal theory of reference for proper names by investigating linguistic usage and (ii) to present the results from two experiments conducted with that method. Data collected in our experiments confirm the causal theory of reference for people proper names and for geographical proper names. A secondary but interesting result is that the semantic domain affects reference assignment: while with people proper names speakers tend to assign the semantic reference, with geographical proper names they are prompted to assign the speaker's reference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Creating Pathways to Employment: The Role of Industry Partnerships in Preparing Low-Income Youth and Young Adults for Careers in High-Demand Industries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grobe, Terry; Martin, Nancy; Steinberg, Adria

2015-01-01

The National Fund for Workforce Solutions and Jobs for the Future, with support from the Rockefeller Foundation, launched the Youth/Industry Partnership Initiative (YIPI), to learn how employer-led industry partnerships could addressing the crisis of youth unemployment--7 percent of American youth (age 16-24) are neither in school or…