Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

2012-01-01

Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Long, D Leann; Stamm, John W

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two data sets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in 2 groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial comparing 3 toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analyzed with negative binomial hurdle, zero-inflated negative binomial, and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the randomized clinical trial were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. The choice of statistical model class should match the study's purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children's caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; Long, D. Leann; Stamm, John W.

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two datasets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in two groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial (RCT) comparing three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analysed with negative binomial hurdle (NBH), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial (MZINB) models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the RCT were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. Choice of statistical model class should match the study’s purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. PMID:28291962

Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

2016-11-01

Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhu; Shuangge, Ma; Wang, Ching-Yun

2017-01-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using an open-source R package mpath. PMID:26059498

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany.

PubMed

Wang, Zhu; Ma, Shuangge; Wang, Ching-Yun

2015-09-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, but also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using the open-source R package mpath. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A review on models for count data with extra zeros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamri, Nik Sarah Nik; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2017-04-01

Typically, the zero inflated models are usually used in modelling count data with excess zeros. The existence of the extra zeros could be structural zeros or random which occur by chance. These types of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences. As found in the literature, the most popular zero inflated models used are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial. Recently, more complex models have been developed to account for overdispersion and unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, more extended distributions are also considered in modelling data with this feature. In this paper, we review related literature, provide a recent development and summary on models for count data with extra zeros.

Statistical inference involving binomial and negative binomial parameters.

PubMed

García-Pérez, Miguel A; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

2009-05-01

Statistical inference about two binomial parameters implies that they are both estimated by binomial sampling. There are occasions in which one aims at testing the equality of two binomial parameters before and after the occurrence of the first success along a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In these cases, the binomial parameter before the first success is estimated by negative binomial sampling whereas that after the first success is estimated by binomial sampling, and both estimates are related. This paper derives statistical tools to test two hypotheses, namely, that both binomial parameters equal some specified value and that both parameters are equal though unknown. Simulation studies are used to show that in small samples both tests are accurate in keeping the nominal Type-I error rates, and also to determine sample size requirements to detect large, medium, and small effects with adequate power. Additional simulations also show that the tests are sufficiently robust to certain violations of their assumptions.

Determinants of The Grade A Embryos in Infertile Women; Zero-Inflated Regression Model.

PubMed

Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Ghaheri, Azadeh; Omani Samani, Reza

2017-10-01

In assisted reproductive technology, it is important to choose high quality embryos for embryo transfer. The aim of the present study was to determine the grade A embryo count and factors related to it in infertile women. This historical cohort study included 996 infertile women. The main outcome was the number of grade A embryos. Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression were used to model the count data as it contained excessive zeros. Stata software, version 13 (Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA) was used for all statistical analyses. After adjusting for potential confounders, results from the ZINB model show that for each unit increase in the number 2 pronuclear (2PN) zygotes, we get an increase of 1.45 times as incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23-1.69, P=0.001) in the expected grade A embryo count number, and for each increase in the cleavage day we get a decrease 0.35 times (95% CI: 0.20-0.61, P=0.001) in expected grade A embryo count. There is a significant association between both the number of 2PN zygotes and cleavage day with the number of grade A embryos in both ZINB and ZIP regression models. The estimated coefficients are more plausible than values found in earlier studies using less relevant models. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

Distinguishing between Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wroughton, Jacqueline; Cole, Tarah

2013-01-01

Recognizing the differences between three discrete distributions (Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial) can be challenging for students. We present an activity designed to help students differentiate among these distributions. In addition, we present assessment results in the form of pre- and post-tests that were designed to assess the…

Negative Binomial Process Count and Mixture Modeling.

PubMed

Zhou, Mingyuan; Carin, Lawrence

2015-02-01

The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process for count modeling. A draw from the NB process consists of a Poisson distributed finite number of distinct atoms, each of which is associated with a logarithmic distributed number of data samples. We reveal relationships between various count- and mixture-modeling distributions and construct a Poisson-logarithmic bivariate distribution that connects the NB and Chinese restaurant table distributions. Fundamental properties of the models are developed, and we derive efficient Bayesian inference. It is shown that with augmentation and normalization, the NB process and gamma-NB process can be reduced to the Dirichlet process and hierarchical Dirichlet process, respectively. These relationships highlight theoretical, structural, and computational advantages of the NB process. A variety of NB processes, including the beta-geometric, beta-NB, marked-beta-NB, marked-gamma-NB and zero-inflated-NB processes, with distinct sharing mechanisms, are also constructed. These models are applied to topic modeling, with connections made to existing algorithms under Poisson factor analysis. Example results show the importance of inferring both the NB dispersion and probability parameters.

Structural zeroes and zero-inflated models.

PubMed

He, Hua; Tang, Wan; Wang, Wenjuan; Crits-Christoph, Paul

2014-08-01

In psychosocial and behavioral studies count outcomes recording the frequencies of the occurrence of some health or behavior outcomes (such as the number of unprotected sexual behaviors during a period of time) often contain a preponderance of zeroes because of the presence of 'structural zeroes' that occur when some subjects are not at risk for the behavior of interest. Unlike random zeroes (responses that can be greater than zero, but are zero due to sampling variability), structural zeroes are usually very different, both statistically and clinically. False interpretations of results and study findings may result if differences in the two types of zeroes are ignored. However, in practice, the status of the structural zeroes is often not observed and this latent nature complicates the data analysis. In this article, we focus on one model, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model that is commonly used to address zero-inflated data. We first give a brief overview of the issues of structural zeroes and the ZIP model. We then given an illustration of ZIP with data from a study on HIV-risk sexual behaviors among adolescent girls. Sample codes in SAS and Stata are also included to help perform and explain ZIP analyses.

Statistical Models for the Analysis of Zero-Inflated Pain Intensity Numeric Rating Scale Data.

PubMed

Goulet, Joseph L; Buta, Eugenia; Bathulapalli, Harini; Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Brandt, Cynthia A

2017-03-01

Pain intensity is often measured in clinical and research settings using the 0 to 10 numeric rating scale (NRS). NRS scores are recorded as discrete values, and in some samples they may display a high proportion of zeroes and a right-skewed distribution. Despite this, statistical methods for normally distributed data are frequently used in the analysis of NRS data. We present results from an observational cross-sectional study examining the association of NRS scores with patient characteristics using data collected from a large cohort of 18,935 veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs care diagnosed with a potentially painful musculoskeletal disorder. The mean (variance) NRS pain was 3.0 (7.5), and 34% of patients reported no pain (NRS = 0). We compared the following statistical models for analyzing NRS scores: linear regression, generalized linear models (Poisson and negative binomial), zero-inflated and hurdle models for data with an excess of zeroes, and a cumulative logit model for ordinal data. We examined model fit, interpretability of results, and whether conclusions about the predictor effects changed across models. In this study, models that accommodate zero inflation provided a better fit than the other models. These models should be considered for the analysis of NRS data with a large proportion of zeroes. We examined and analyzed pain data from a large cohort of veterans with musculoskeletal disorders. We found that many reported no current pain on the NRS on the diagnosis date. We present several alternative statistical methods for the analysis of pain intensity data with a large proportion of zeroes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Some considerations for excess zeroes in substance abuse research.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; DeSantis, Stacia M; Korte, Jeffrey E; Brady, Kathleen T

2011-09-01

Count data collected in substance abuse research often come with an excess of "zeroes," which are typically handled using zero-inflated regression models. However, there is a need to consider the design aspects of those studies before using such a statistical model to ascertain the sources of zeroes. We sought to illustrate hurdle models as alternatives to zero-inflated models to validate a two-stage decision-making process in situations of "excess zeroes." We use data from a study of 45 cocaine-dependent subjects where the primary scientific question was to evaluate whether study participation influences drug-seeking behavior. The outcome, "the frequency (count) of cocaine use days per week," is bounded (ranging from 0 to 7). We fit and compare binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, and the hurdle version of these models to study the effect of gender, age, time, and study participation on cocaine use. The hurdle binomial model provides the best fit. Gender and time are not predictive of use. Higher odds of use versus no use are associated with age; however once use is experienced, odds of further use decrease with increase in age. Participation was associated with higher odds of no-cocaine use; once there is use, participation reduced the odds of further use. Age and study participation are significantly predictive of cocaine-use behavior. The two-stage decision process as modeled by a hurdle binomial model (appropriate for bounded count data with excess zeroes) provides interesting insights into the study of covariate effects on count responses of substance use, when all enrolled subjects are believed to be "at-risk" of use.

A test of inflated zeros for Poisson regression models.

PubMed

He, Hua; Zhang, Hui; Ye, Peng; Tang, Wan

2017-01-01

Excessive zeros are common in practice and may cause overdispersion and invalidate inference when fitting Poisson regression models. There is a large body of literature on zero-inflated Poisson models. However, methods for testing whether there are excessive zeros are less well developed. The Vuong test comparing a Poisson and a zero-inflated Poisson model is commonly applied in practice. However, the type I error of the test often deviates seriously from the nominal level, rendering serious doubts on the validity of the test in such applications. In this paper, we develop a new approach for testing inflated zeros under the Poisson model. Unlike the Vuong test for inflated zeros, our method does not require a zero-inflated Poisson model to perform the test. Simulation studies show that when compared with the Vuong test our approach not only better at controlling type I error rate, but also yield more power.

IRT-ZIP Modeling for Multivariate Zero-Inflated Count Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Lijuan

2010-01-01

This study introduces an item response theory-zero-inflated Poisson (IRT-ZIP) model to investigate psychometric properties of multiple items and predict individuals' latent trait scores for multivariate zero-inflated count data. In the model, two link functions are used to capture two processes of the zero-inflated count data. Item parameters are…

Comparing statistical methods for analyzing skewed longitudinal count data with many zeros: an example of smoking cessation.

PubMed

Xie, Haiyi; Tao, Jill; McHugo, Gregory J; Drake, Robert E

2013-07-01

Count data with skewness and many zeros are common in substance abuse and addiction research. Zero-adjusting models, especially zero-inflated models, have become increasingly popular in analyzing this type of data. This paper reviews and compares five mixed-effects Poisson family models commonly used to analyze count data with a high proportion of zeros by analyzing a longitudinal outcome: number of smoking quit attempts from the New Hampshire Dual Disorders Study. The findings of our study indicated that count data with many zeros do not necessarily require zero-inflated or other zero-adjusting models. For rare event counts or count data with small means, a simpler model such as the negative binomial model may provide a better fit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data.

PubMed

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A; Coull, Brent A

2016-10-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias.

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data

PubMed Central

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J. Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A.; Coull, Brent A.

2015-01-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias. PMID:27867423

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Washington, Simon P; Ivan, John N

2005-01-01

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states-perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate

Zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell Poisson Distribution to Analyze Discrete Data.

PubMed

Sim, Shin Zhu; Gupta, Ramesh C; Ong, Seng Huat

2018-01-09

In this paper, we study the zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ZICMP) distribution and develop a regression model. Score and likelihood ratio tests are also implemented for testing the inflation/deflation parameter. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the performance of these tests. A data example is presented to illustrate the concepts. In this example, the proposed model is compared to the well-known zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and the zero- inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) regression models. It is shown that the fit by ZICMP is comparable or better than these models.

New variable selection methods for zero-inflated count data with applications to the substance abuse field

PubMed Central

Buu, Anne; Johnson, Norman J.; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming

2011-01-01

Zero-inflated count data are very common in health surveys. This study develops new variable selection methods for the zero-inflated Poisson regression model. Our simulations demonstrate the negative consequences which arise from the ignorance of zero-inflation. Among the competing methods, the one-step SCAD method is recommended because it has the highest specificity, sensitivity, exact fit, and lowest estimation error. The design of the simulations is based on the special features of two large national databases commonly used in the alcoholism and substance abuse field so that our findings can be easily generalized to the real settings. Applications of the methodology are demonstrated by empirical analyses on the data from a well-known alcohol study. PMID:21563207

Assessment and Selection of Competing Models for Zero-Inflated Microbiome Data

PubMed Central

Xu, Lizhen; Paterson, Andrew D.; Turpin, Williams; Xu, Wei

2015-01-01

Typical data in a microbiome study consist of the operational taxonomic unit (OTU) counts that have the characteristic of excess zeros, which are often ignored by investigators. In this paper, we compare the performance of different competing methods to model data with zero inflated features through extensive simulations and application to a microbiome study. These methods include standard parametric and non-parametric models, hurdle models, and zero inflated models. We examine varying degrees of zero inflation, with or without dispersion in the count component, as well as different magnitude and direction of the covariate effect on structural zeros and the count components. We focus on the assessment of type I error, power to detect the overall covariate effect, measures of model fit, and bias and effectiveness of parameter estimations. We also evaluate the abilities of model selection strategies using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or Vuong test to identify the correct model. The simulation studies show that hurdle and zero inflated models have well controlled type I errors, higher power, better goodness of fit measures, and are more accurate and efficient in the parameter estimation. Besides that, the hurdle models have similar goodness of fit and parameter estimation for the count component as their corresponding zero inflated models. However, the estimation and interpretation of the parameters for the zero components differs, and hurdle models are more stable when structural zeros are absent. We then discuss the model selection strategy for zero inflated data and implement it in a gut microbiome study of > 400 independent subjects. PMID:26148172

Assessment and Selection of Competing Models for Zero-Inflated Microbiome Data.

PubMed

Xu, Lizhen; Paterson, Andrew D; Turpin, Williams; Xu, Wei

2015-01-01

Typical data in a microbiome study consist of the operational taxonomic unit (OTU) counts that have the characteristic of excess zeros, which are often ignored by investigators. In this paper, we compare the performance of different competing methods to model data with zero inflated features through extensive simulations and application to a microbiome study. These methods include standard parametric and non-parametric models, hurdle models, and zero inflated models. We examine varying degrees of zero inflation, with or without dispersion in the count component, as well as different magnitude and direction of the covariate effect on structural zeros and the count components. We focus on the assessment of type I error, power to detect the overall covariate effect, measures of model fit, and bias and effectiveness of parameter estimations. We also evaluate the abilities of model selection strategies using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or Vuong test to identify the correct model. The simulation studies show that hurdle and zero inflated models have well controlled type I errors, higher power, better goodness of fit measures, and are more accurate and efficient in the parameter estimation. Besides that, the hurdle models have similar goodness of fit and parameter estimation for the count component as their corresponding zero inflated models. However, the estimation and interpretation of the parameters for the zero components differs, and hurdle models are more stable when structural zeros are absent. We then discuss the model selection strategy for zero inflated data and implement it in a gut microbiome study of > 400 independent subjects.

The Difference Calculus and The NEgative Binomial Distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o; Shenton, LR

2007-01-01

In a previous paper we state the dominant term in the third central moment of the maximum likelihood estimator k of the parameter k in the negative binomial probability function where the probability generating function is (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}. A partial sum of the series {Sigma}1/(k + x){sup 3} is involved, where x is a negative binomial random variate. In expectation this sum can only be found numerically using the computer. Here we give a simple definite integral in (0,1) for the generalized case. This means that now we do have a valid expression for {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(k)more » and {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(p). In addition we use the finite difference operator {Delta}, and E = 1 + {Delta} to set up formulas for low order moments. Other examples of the operators are quoted relating to the orthogonal set of polynomials associated with the negative binomial probability function used as a weight function.« less

A comparison of different statistical methods analyzing hypoglycemia data using bootstrap simulations.

PubMed

Jiang, Honghua; Ni, Xiao; Huster, William; Heilmann, Cory

2015-01-01

Hypoglycemia has long been recognized as a major barrier to achieving normoglycemia with intensive diabetic therapies. It is a common safety concern for the diabetes patients. Therefore, it is important to apply appropriate statistical methods when analyzing hypoglycemia data. Here, we carried out bootstrap simulations to investigate the performance of the four commonly used statistical models (Poisson, negative binomial, analysis of covariance [ANCOVA], and rank ANCOVA) based on the data from a diabetes clinical trial. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model were also evaluated. Simulation results showed that Poisson model inflated type I error, while negative binomial model was overly conservative. However, after adjusting for dispersion, both Poisson and negative binomial models yielded slightly inflated type I errors, which were close to the nominal level and reasonable power. Reasonable control of type I error was associated with ANCOVA model. Rank ANCOVA model was associated with the greatest power and with reasonable control of type I error. Inflated type I error was observed with ZIP and ZINB models.

Marginalized zero-inflated Poisson models with missing covariates.

PubMed

Benecha, Habtamu K; Preisser, John S; Divaris, Kimon; Herring, Amy H; Das, Kalyan

2018-05-11

Unlike zero-inflated Poisson regression, marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) models for counts with excess zeros provide estimates with direct interpretations for the overall effects of covariates on the marginal mean. In the presence of missing covariates, MZIP and many other count data models are ordinarily fitted using complete case analysis methods due to lack of appropriate statistical methods and software. This article presents an estimation method for MZIP models with missing covariates. The method, which is applicable to other missing data problems, is illustrated and compared with complete case analysis by using simulations and dental data on the caries preventive effects of a school-based fluoride mouthrinse program. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Item Response Modeling of Multivariate Count Data with Zero Inflation, Maximum Inflation, and Heaping

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magnus, Brooke E.; Thissen, David

2017-01-01

Questionnaires that include items eliciting count responses are becoming increasingly common in psychology. This study proposes methodological techniques to overcome some of the challenges associated with analyzing multivariate item response data that exhibit zero inflation, maximum inflation, and heaping at preferred digits. The modeling…

Reliability of environmental sampling culture results using the negative binomial intraclass correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Aly, Sharif S; Zhao, Jianyang; Li, Ben; Jiang, Jiming

2014-01-01

The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is commonly used to estimate the similarity between quantitative measures obtained from different sources. Overdispersed data is traditionally transformed so that linear mixed model (LMM) based ICC can be estimated. A common transformation used is the natural logarithm. The reliability of environmental sampling of fecal slurry on freestall pens has been estimated for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis using the natural logarithm transformed culture results. Recently, the negative binomial ICC was defined based on a generalized linear mixed model for negative binomial distributed data. The current study reports on the negative binomial ICC estimate which includes fixed effects using culture results of environmental samples. Simulations using a wide variety of inputs and negative binomial distribution parameters (r; p) showed better performance of the new negative binomial ICC compared to the ICC based on LMM even when negative binomial data was logarithm, and square root transformed. A second comparison that targeted a wider range of ICC values showed that the mean of estimated ICC closely approximated the true ICC.

Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

PubMed

Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2016-08-01

This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test for drug safety signal detection.

PubMed

Huang, Lan; Zheng, Dan; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram

2017-02-01

In recent decades, numerous methods have been developed for data mining of large drug safety databases, such as Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Adverse Event Reporting System, where data matrices are formed by drugs such as columns and adverse events as rows. Often, a large number of cells in these data matrices have zero cell counts and some of them are "true zeros" indicating that the drug-adverse event pairs cannot occur, and these zero counts are distinguished from the other zero counts that are modeled zero counts and simply indicate that the drug-adverse event pairs have not occurred yet or have not been reported yet. In this paper, a zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is proposed to identify drug-adverse event pairs that have disproportionately high reporting rates, which are also called signals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test are obtained using the expectation and maximization algorithm. The zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test is also modified to handle the stratified analyses for binary and categorical covariates (e.g. gender and age) in the data. The proposed zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is shown to asymptotically control the type I error and false discovery rate, and its finite sample performance for signal detection is evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation results show that the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method performs similar to Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method when the estimated percentage of true zeros in the database is small. Both the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test and likelihood ratio test methods are applied to six selected drugs, from the 2006 to 2011 Adverse Event Reporting System database, with varying percentages of observed zero-count cells.

Application of zero-inflated poisson mixed models in prognostic factors of hepatitis C.

PubMed

Akbarzadeh Baghban, Alireza; Pourhoseingholi, Asma; Zayeri, Farid; Jafari, Ali Akbar; Alavian, Seyed Moayed

2013-01-01

In recent years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major public health problem. Evaluation of risk factors is one of the solutions which help protect people from the infection. This study aims to employ zero-inflated Poisson mixed models to evaluate prognostic factors of hepatitis C. The data was collected from a longitudinal study during 2005-2010. First, mixed Poisson regression (PR) model was fitted to the data. Then, a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was fitted with compound Poisson random effects. For evaluating the performance of the proposed mixed model, standard errors of estimators were compared. The results obtained from mixed PR showed that genotype 3 and treatment protocol were statistically significant. Results of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model showed that age, sex, genotypes 2 and 3, the treatment protocol, and having risk factors had significant effects on viral load of HCV patients. Of these two models, the estimators of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model had the minimum standard errors. The results showed that a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was the almost best fit. The proposed model can capture serial dependence, additional overdispersion, and excess zeros in the longitudinal count data.

Negative running can prevent eternal inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinney, William H.; Freese, Katherine, E-mail: whkinney@buffalo.edu, E-mail: ktfreese@umich.edu

Current data from the Planck satellite and the BICEP2 telescope favor, at around the 2 σ level, negative running of the spectral index of curvature perturbations from inflation. We show that for negative running α < 0, the curvature perturbation amplitude has a maximum on scales larger than our current horizon size. A condition for the absence of eternal inflation is that the curvature perturbation amplitude always remain below unity on superhorizon scales. For current bounds on n{sub S} from Planck, this corresponds to an upper bound of the running α < −9 × 10{sup −5}, so that even tiny running of the scalar spectral index ismore » sufficient to prevent eternal inflation from occurring, as long as the running remains negative on scales outside the horizon. In single-field inflation models, negative running is associated with a finite duration of inflation: we show that eternal inflation may not occur even in cases where inflation lasts as long as 10{sup 4} e-folds.« less

Selecting the right statistical model for analysis of insect count data by using information theoretic measures.

PubMed

Sileshi, G

2006-10-01

Researchers and regulatory agencies often make statistical inferences from insect count data using modelling approaches that assume homogeneous variance. Such models do not allow for formal appraisal of variability which in its different forms is the subject of interest in ecology. Therefore, the objectives of this paper were to (i) compare models suitable for handling variance heterogeneity and (ii) select optimal models to ensure valid statistical inferences from insect count data. The log-normal, standard Poisson, Poisson corrected for overdispersion, zero-inflated Poisson, the negative binomial distribution and zero-inflated negative binomial models were compared using six count datasets on foliage-dwelling insects and five families of soil-dwelling insects. Akaike's and Schwarz Bayesian information criteria were used for comparing the various models. Over 50% of the counts were zeros even in locally abundant species such as Ootheca bennigseni Weise, Mesoplatys ochroptera Stål and Diaecoderus spp. The Poisson model after correction for overdispersion and the standard negative binomial distribution model provided better description of the probability distribution of seven out of the 11 insects than the log-normal, standard Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial models. It is concluded that excess zeros and variance heterogeneity are common data phenomena in insect counts. If not properly modelled, these properties can invalidate the normal distribution assumptions resulting in biased estimation of ecological effects and jeopardizing the integrity of the scientific inferences. Therefore, it is recommended that statistical models appropriate for handling these data properties be selected using objective criteria to ensure efficient statistical inference.

Marginalized multilevel hurdle and zero-inflated models for overdispersed and correlated count data with excess zeros.

PubMed

Kassahun, Wondwosen; Neyens, Thomas; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Verbeke, Geert

2014-11-10

Count data are collected repeatedly over time in many applications, such as biology, epidemiology, and public health. Such data are often characterized by the following three features. First, correlation due to the repeated measures is usually accounted for using subject-specific random effects, which are assumed to be normally distributed. Second, the sample variance may exceed the mean, and hence, the theoretical mean-variance relationship is violated, leading to overdispersion. This is usually allowed for based on a hierarchical approach, combining a Poisson model with gamma distributed random effects. Third, an excess of zeros beyond what standard count distributions can predict is often handled by either the hurdle or the zero-inflated model. A zero-inflated model assumes two processes as sources of zeros and combines a count distribution with a discrete point mass as a mixture, while the hurdle model separately handles zero observations and positive counts, where then a truncated-at-zero count distribution is used for the non-zero state. In practice, however, all these three features can appear simultaneously. Hence, a modeling framework that incorporates all three is necessary, and this presents challenges for the data analysis. Such models, when conditionally specified, will naturally have a subject-specific interpretation. However, adopting their purposefully modified marginalized versions leads to a direct marginal or population-averaged interpretation for parameter estimates of covariate effects, which is the primary interest in many applications. In this paper, we present a marginalized hurdle model and a marginalized zero-inflated model for correlated and overdispersed count data with excess zero observations and then illustrate these further with two case studies. The first dataset focuses on the Anopheles mosquito density around a hydroelectric dam, while adolescents' involvement in work, to earn money and support their families or themselves, is

Analysis of generalized negative binomial distributions attached to hyperbolic Landau levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chhaiba, Hassan, E-mail: chhaiba.hassan@gmail.com; Demni, Nizar, E-mail: nizar.demni@univ-rennes1.fr; Mouayn, Zouhair, E-mail: mouayn@fstbm.ac.ma

2016-07-15

To each hyperbolic Landau level of the Poincaré disc is attached a generalized negative binomial distribution. In this paper, we compute the moment generating function of this distribution and supply its atomic decomposition as a perturbation of the negative binomial distribution by a finitely supported measure. Using the Mandel parameter, we also discuss the nonclassical nature of the associated coherent states. Next, we derive a Lévy-Khintchine-type representation of its characteristic function when the latter does not vanish and deduce that it is quasi-infinitely divisible except for the lowest hyperbolic Landau level corresponding to the negative binomial distribution. By considering themore » total variation of the obtained quasi-Lévy measure, we introduce a new infinitely divisible distribution for which we derive the characteristic function.« less

Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur

2017-07-01

In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.

Conditional modeling of antibody titers using a zero-inflated poisson random effects model: application to Fabrazyme.

PubMed

Bonate, Peter L; Sung, Crystal; Welch, Karen; Richards, Susan

2009-10-01

Patients that are exposed to biotechnology-derived therapeutics often develop antibodies to the therapeutic, the magnitude of which is assessed by measuring antibody titers. A statistical approach for analyzing antibody titer data conditional on seroconversion is presented. The proposed method is to first transform the antibody titer data based on a geometric series using a common ratio of 2 and a scale factor of 50 and then analyze the exponent using a zero-inflated or hurdle model assuming a Poisson or negative binomial distribution with random effects to account for patient heterogeneity. Patient specific covariates can be used to model the probability of developing an antibody response, i.e., seroconversion, as well as the magnitude of the antibody titer itself. The method was illustrated using antibody titer data from 87 male seroconverted Fabry patients receiving Fabrazyme. Titers from five clinical trials were collected over 276 weeks of therapy with anti-Fabrazyme IgG titers ranging from 100 to 409,600 after exclusion of seronegative patients. The best model to explain seroconversion was a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model where cumulative dose (under a constant dose regimen of dosing every 2 weeks) influenced the probability of seroconversion. There was an 80% chance of seroconversion when the cumulative dose reached 210 mg (90% confidence interval: 194-226 mg). No difference in antibody titers was noted between Japanese or Western patients. Once seroconverted, antibody titers did not remain constant but decreased in an exponential manner from an initial magnitude to a new lower steady-state value. The expected titer after the new steady-state titer had been achieved was 870 (90% CI: 630-1109). The half-life to the new steady-state value after seroconversion was 44 weeks (90% CI: 17-70 weeks). Time to seroconversion did not appear to be correlated with titer at the time of seroconversion. The method can be adequately used to model antibody titer data.

SEMIPARAMETRIC ZERO-INFLATED MODELING IN MULTI-ETHNIC STUDY OF ATHEROSCLEROSIS (MESA)

PubMed Central

Liu, Hai; Ma, Shuangge; Kronmal, Richard; Chan, Kung-Sik

2013-01-01

We analyze the Agatston score of coronary artery calcium (CAC) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) using semi-parametric zero-inflated modeling approach, where the observed CAC scores from this cohort consist of high frequency of zeroes and continuously distributed positive values. Both partially constrained and unconstrained models are considered to investigate the underlying biological processes of CAC development from zero to positive, and from small amount to large amount. Different from existing studies, a model selection procedure based on likelihood cross-validation is adopted to identify the optimal model, which is justified by comparative Monte Carlo studies. A shrinkaged version of cubic regression spline is used for model estimation and variable selection simultaneously. When applying the proposed methods to the MESA data analysis, we show that the two biological mechanisms influencing the initiation of CAC and the magnitude of CAC when it is positive are better characterized by an unconstrained zero-inflated normal model. Our results are significantly different from those in published studies, and may provide further insights into the biological mechanisms underlying CAC development in human. This highly flexible statistical framework can be applied to zero-inflated data analyses in other areas. PMID:23805172

Analysis of Blood Transfusion Data Using Bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson Model: A Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Tayeb; Kheiri, Soleiman; Sedehi, Morteza

2016-01-01

Recognizing the factors affecting the number of blood donation and blood deferral has a major impact on blood transfusion. There is a positive correlation between the variables "number of blood donation" and "number of blood deferral": as the number of return for donation increases, so does the number of blood deferral. On the other hand, due to the fact that many donors never return to donate, there is an extra zero frequency for both of the above-mentioned variables. In this study, in order to apply the correlation and to explain the frequency of the excessive zero, the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model was used for joint modeling of the number of blood donation and number of blood deferral. The data was analyzed using the Bayesian approach applying noninformative priors at the presence and absence of covariates. Estimating the parameters of the model, that is, correlation, zero-inflation parameter, and regression coefficients, was done through MCMC simulation. Eventually double-Poisson model, bivariate Poisson model, and bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model were fitted on the data and were compared using the deviance information criteria (DIC). The results showed that the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model fitted the data better than the other models.

Analysis of Blood Transfusion Data Using Bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson Model: A Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Mohammadi, Tayeb; Sedehi, Morteza

2016-01-01

Recognizing the factors affecting the number of blood donation and blood deferral has a major impact on blood transfusion. There is a positive correlation between the variables “number of blood donation” and “number of blood deferral”: as the number of return for donation increases, so does the number of blood deferral. On the other hand, due to the fact that many donors never return to donate, there is an extra zero frequency for both of the above-mentioned variables. In this study, in order to apply the correlation and to explain the frequency of the excessive zero, the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model was used for joint modeling of the number of blood donation and number of blood deferral. The data was analyzed using the Bayesian approach applying noninformative priors at the presence and absence of covariates. Estimating the parameters of the model, that is, correlation, zero-inflation parameter, and regression coefficients, was done through MCMC simulation. Eventually double-Poisson model, bivariate Poisson model, and bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model were fitted on the data and were compared using the deviance information criteria (DIC). The results showed that the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model fitted the data better than the other models. PMID:27703493

Evaluation of the Use of Zero-Augmented Regression Techniques to Model Incidence of Campylobacter Infections in FoodNet.

PubMed

Tremblay, Marlène; Crim, Stacy M; Cole, Dana J; Hoekstra, Robert M; Henao, Olga L; Döpfer, Dörte

2017-10-01

The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) is currently using a negative binomial (NB) regression model to estimate temporal changes in the incidence of Campylobacter infection. FoodNet active surveillance in 483 counties collected data on 40,212 Campylobacter cases between years 2004 and 2011. We explored models that disaggregated these data to allow us to account for demographic, geographic, and seasonal factors when examining changes in incidence of Campylobacter infection. We hypothesized that modeling structural zeros and including demographic variables would increase the fit of FoodNet's Campylobacter incidence regression models. Five different models were compared: NB without demographic covariates, NB with demographic covariates, hurdle NB with covariates in the count component only, hurdle NB with covariates in both zero and count components, and zero-inflated NB with covariates in the count component only. Of the models evaluated, the nonzero-augmented NB model with demographic variables provided the best fit. Results suggest that even though zero inflation was not present at this level, individualizing the level of aggregation and using different model structures and predictors per site might be required to correctly distinguish between structural and observational zeros and account for risk factors that vary geographically.

A new zero-inflated negative binomial methodology for latent category identification.

PubMed

Blanchard, Simon J; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2013-04-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic example and a consumer psychology study involving categories of restaurant brands illustrate how the application of the proposed methodology to the new sorting task can account for a variety of categorization phenomena including multiple category memberships and for heterogeneity through individual differences in the saliency of latent category structures.

A New Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Methodology for Latent Category Identification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanchard, Simon J.; DeSarbo, Wayne S.

2013-01-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic…

Variability in results from negative binomial models for Lyme disease measured at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Tran, Phoebe; Waller, Lance

2015-01-01

Lyme disease has been the subject of many studies due to increasing incidence rates year after year and the severe complications that can arise in later stages of the disease. Negative binomial models have been used to model Lyme disease in the past with some success. However, there has been little focus on the reliability and consistency of these models when they are used to study Lyme disease at multiple spatial scales. This study seeks to explore how sensitive/consistent negative binomial models are when they are used to study Lyme disease at different spatial scales (at the regional and sub-regional levels). The study area includes the thirteen states in the Northeastern United States with the highest Lyme disease incidence during the 2002-2006 period. Lyme disease incidence at county level for the period of 2002-2006 was linked with several previously identified key landscape and climatic variables in a negative binomial regression model for the Northeastern region and two smaller sub-regions (the New England sub-region and the Mid-Atlantic sub-region). This study found that negative binomial models, indeed, were sensitive/inconsistent when used at different spatial scales. We discuss various plausible explanations for such behavior of negative binomial models. Further investigation of the inconsistency and sensitivity of negative binomial models when used at different spatial scales is important for not only future Lyme disease studies and Lyme disease risk assessment/management but any study that requires use of this model type in a spatial context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Zero-inflated spatio-temporal models for disease mapping.

PubMed

Torabi, Mahmoud

2017-05-01

In this paper, our aim is to analyze geographical and temporal variability of disease incidence when spatio-temporal count data have excess zeros. To that end, we consider random effects in zero-inflated Poisson models to investigate geographical and temporal patterns of disease incidence. Spatio-temporal models that employ conditionally autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and B-spline smoothing over the temporal dimension are proposed. The analysis of these complex models is computationally difficult from the frequentist perspective. On the other hand, the advent of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm has made the Bayesian analysis of complex models computationally convenient. Recently developed data cloning method provides a frequentist approach to mixed models that is also computationally convenient. We propose to use data cloning, which yields to maximum likelihood estimation, to conduct frequentist analysis of zero-inflated spatio-temporal modeling of disease incidence. One of the advantages of the data cloning approach is that the prediction and corresponding standard errors (or prediction intervals) of smoothing disease incidence over space and time is easily obtained. We illustrate our approach using a real dataset of monthly children asthma visits to hospital in the province of Manitoba, Canada, during the period April 2006 to March 2010. Performance of our approach is also evaluated through a simulation study. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Full Bayes Poisson gamma, Poisson lognormal, and zero inflated random effects models: Comparing the precision of crash frequency estimates.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-01-01

In recent years, complex statistical modeling approaches have being proposed to handle the unobserved heterogeneity and the excess of zeros frequently found in crash data, including random effects and zero inflated models. This research compares random effects, zero inflated, and zero inflated random effects models using a full Bayes hierarchical approach. The models are compared not just in terms of goodness-of-fit measures but also in terms of precision of posterior crash frequency estimates since the precision of these estimates is vital for ranking of sites for engineering improvement. Fixed-over-time random effects models are also compared to independent-over-time random effects models. For the crash dataset being analyzed, it was found that once the random effects are included in the zero inflated models, the probability of being in the zero state is drastically reduced, and the zero inflated models degenerate to their non zero inflated counterparts. Also by fixing the random effects over time the fit of the models and the precision of the crash frequency estimates are significantly increased. It was found that the rankings of the fixed-over-time random effects models are very consistent among them. In addition, the results show that by fixing the random effects over time, the standard errors of the crash frequency estimates are significantly reduced for the majority of the segments on the top of the ranking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inflation and Growth: Positive or Negative Relationship?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berument, Hakan; Inamlik, Ali; Olgun, Hasan

This study has been motivated by two developments. Firstly, by the vast literature on the relationship between inflation and growth which is abundantly endowed with diverse theoretical explanations and contradictory evidence and by the unique experience of the Turkish economy with inflation and growth. A preliminary examination of the Turkish data pointed to a negative relation between inflation and growth. Moreover, there is a unanimous agreement among the students of the Turkish economy that many factors have contributed to inflation in this country. In view of these facts this paper employs a VAR model which will enable us to identify the sources of the shocks and control for external factors. In addition VAR models have a high predictive power and enable the researcher to observe the impulse response functions. The study employs Generalised Impulse Response analysis. In the empirical experiments oil prices, money supply, government spending and taxes have been taken as the most likely determinants of inflation. The study shows that there is a negative relationship between inflation and output growth in Turkey and that the underlying explanatory factor is the real exchange rate. This result is robust.

Analyzing Propensity Matched Zero-Inflated Count Outcomes in Observational Studies

PubMed Central

DeSantis, Stacia M.; Lazaridis, Christos; Ji, Shuang; Spinale, Francis G.

2013-01-01

Determining the effectiveness of different treatments from observational data, which are characterized by imbalance between groups due to lack of randomization, is challenging. Propensity matching is often used to rectify imbalances among prognostic variables. However, there are no guidelines on how appropriately to analyze group matched data when the outcome is a zero inflated count. In addition, there is debate over whether to account for correlation of responses induced by matching, and/or whether to adjust for variables used in generating the propensity score in the final analysis. The aim of this research is to compare covariate unadjusted and adjusted zero-inflated Poisson models that do and do not account for the correlation. A simulation study is conducted, demonstrating that it is necessary to adjust for potential residual confounding, but that accounting for correlation is less important. The methods are applied to a biomedical research data set. PMID:24298197

Protection from annual flooding is correlated with increased cholera prevalence in Bangladesh: a zero-inflated regression analysis.

PubMed

Carrel, Margaret; Voss, Paul; Streatfield, Peter K; Yunus, Mohammad; Emch, Michael

2010-03-22

Alteration of natural or historical aquatic flows can have unintended consequences for regions where waterborne diseases are endemic and where the epidemiologic implications of such change are poorly understood. The implementation of flood protection measures for a portion of an intensely monitored population in Matlab, Bangladesh, allows us to examine whether cholera outcomes respond positively or negatively to measures designed to control river flooding. Using a zero inflated negative binomial model, we examine how selected covariates can simultaneously account for household clusters reporting no cholera from those with positive counts as well as distinguishing residential areas with low counts from areas with high cholera counts. Our goal is to examine how residence within or outside a flood protected area interacts with the probability of cholera presence and the effect of flood protection on the magnitude of cholera prevalence. In Matlab, living in a household that is protected from annual monsoon flooding appears to have no significant effect on whether the household experiences cholera, net of other covariates. However, counter-intuitively, among households where cholera is reported, living within the flood protected region significantly increases the number of cholera cases. The construction of dams or other water impoundment strategies for economic or social motives can have profound and unanticipated consequences for waterborne disease. Our results indicate that the construction of a flood control structure in rural Bangladesh is correlated with an increase in cholera cases for residents protected from annual monsoon flooding. Such a finding requires attention from both the health community and from governments and non-governmental organizations involved in ongoing water management schemes.

Comparison of multiplicity distributions to the negative binomial distribution in muon-proton scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneodo, M.; Arvidson, A.; Aubert, J. J.; Badełek, B.; Beaufays, J.; Bee, C. P.; Benchouk, C.; Berghoff, G.; Bird, I.; Blum, D.; Böhm, E.; de Bouard, X.; Brasse, F. W.; Braun, H.; Broll, C.; Brown, S.; Brück, H.; Calen, H.; Chima, J. S.; Ciborowski, J.; Clifft, R.; Coignet, G.; Combley, F.; Coughlan, J.; D'Agostini, G.; Dahlgren, S.; Dengler, F.; Derado, I.; Dreyer, T.; Drees, J.; Düren, M.; Eckardt, V.; Edwards, A.; Edwards, M.; Ernst, T.; Eszes, G.; Favier, J.; Ferrero, M. I.; Figiel, J.; Flauger, W.; Foster, J.; Ftáčnik, J.; Gabathuler, E.; Gajewski, J.; Gamet, R.; Gayler, J.; Geddes, N.; Grafström, P.; Grard, F.; Haas, J.; Hagberg, E.; Hasert, F. J.; Hayman, P.; Heusse, P.; Jaffré, M.; Jachołkowska, A.; Janata, F.; Jancsó, G.; Johnson, A. S.; Kabuss, E. M.; Kellner, G.; Korbel, V.; Krüger, J.; Kullander, S.; Landgraf, U.; Lanske, D.; Loken, J.; Long, K.; Maire, M.; Malecki, P.; Manz, A.; Maselli, S.; Mohr, W.; Montanet, F.; Montgomery, H. E.; Nagy, E.; Nassalski, J.; Norton, P. R.; Oakham, F. G.; Osborne, A. M.; Pascaud, C.; Pawlik, B.; Payre, P.; Peroni, C.; Peschel, H.; Pessard, H.; Pettinghale, J.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pietrzyk, U.; Pönsgen, B.; Pötsch, M.; Renton, P.; Ribarics, P.; Rith, K.; Rondio, E.; Sandacz, A.; Scheer, M.; Schlagböhmer, A.; Schiemann, H.; Schmitz, N.; Schneegans, M.; Schneider, A.; Scholz, M.; Schröder, T.; Schultze, K.; Sloan, T.; Stier, H. E.; Studt, M.; Taylor, G. N.; Thénard, J. M.; Thompson, J. C.; de La Torre, A.; Toth, J.; Urban, L.; Urban, L.; Wallucks, W.; Whalley, M.; Wheeler, S.; Williams, W. S. C.; Wimpenny, S. J.; Windmolders, R.; Wolf, G.

1987-09-01

The multiplicity distributions of charged hadrons produced in the deep inelastic muon-proton scattering at 280 GeV are analysed in various rapidity intervals, as a function of the total hadronic centre of mass energy W ranging from 4 20 GeV. Multiplicity distributions for the backward and forward hemispheres are also analysed separately. The data can be well parameterized by binomial distributions, extending their range of applicability to the case of lepton-proton scattering. The energy and the rapidity dependence of the parameters is presented and a smooth transition from the negative binomial distribution via Poissonian to the ordinary binomial is observed.

Some findings on zero-inflated and hurdle poisson models for disease mapping.

PubMed

Corpas-Burgos, Francisca; García-Donato, Gonzalo; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A

2018-05-27

Zero excess in the study of geographically referenced mortality data sets has been the focus of considerable attention in the literature, with zero-inflation being the most common procedure to handle this lack of fit. Although hurdle models have also been used in disease mapping studies, their use is more rare. We show in this paper that models using particular treatments of zero excesses are often required for achieving appropriate fits in regular mortality studies since, otherwise, geographical units with low expected counts are oversmoothed. However, as also shown, an indiscriminate treatment of zero excess may be unnecessary and has a problematic implementation. In this regard, we find that naive zero-inflation and hurdle models, without an explicit modeling of the probabilities of zeroes, do not fix zero excesses problems well enough and are clearly unsatisfactory. Results sharply suggest the need for an explicit modeling of the probabilities that should vary across areal units. Unfortunately, these more flexible modeling strategies can easily lead to improper posterior distributions as we prove in several theoretical results. Those procedures have been repeatedly used in the disease mapping literature, and one should bear these issues in mind in order to propose valid models. We finally propose several valid modeling alternatives according to the results mentioned that are suitable for fitting zero excesses. We show that those proposals fix zero excesses problems and correct the mentioned oversmoothing of risks in low populated units depicting geographic patterns more suited to the data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Bence, James R.; Kepler, Megan V.; Liu, Weihai; Hayes, Daniel B.

2013-01-01

Partitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallejo, Jonathon; Hejduk, Matt; Stamey, James

2015-01-01

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Growth Curve Models for Zero-Inflated Count Data: An Application to Smoking Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Hui; Powers, Daniel A.

2007-01-01

This article applies growth curve models to longitudinal count data characterized by an excess of zero counts. We discuss a zero-inflated Poisson regression model for longitudinal data in which the impact of covariates on the initial counts and the rate of change in counts over time is the focus of inference. Basic growth curve models using a…

A Zero- and K-Inflated Mixture Model for Health Questionnaire Data

PubMed Central

Finkelman, Matthew D.; Green, Jennifer Greif; Gruber, Michael J.; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2011-01-01

In psychiatric assessment, Item Response Theory (IRT) is a popular tool to formalize the relation between the severity of a disorder and associated responses to questionnaire items. Practitioners of IRT sometimes make the assumption of normally distributed severities within a population; while convenient, this assumption is often violated when measuring psychiatric disorders. Specifically, there may be a sizable group of respondents whose answers place them at an extreme of the latent trait spectrum. In this article, a zero- and K-inflated mixture model is developed to account for the presence of such respondents. The model is fitted using an expectation-maximization (E-M) algorithm to estimate the percentage of the population at each end of the continuum, concurrently analyzing the remaining “graded component” via IRT. A method to perform factor analysis for only the graded component is introduced. In assessments of oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder, the zero- and K-inflated model exhibited better fit than the standard IRT model. PMID:21365673

Zero-inflated Poisson regression models for QTL mapping applied to tick-resistance in a Gyr × Holstein F2 population

PubMed Central

Silva, Fabyano Fonseca; Tunin, Karen P.; Rosa, Guilherme J.M.; da Silva, Marcos V.B.; Azevedo, Ana Luisa Souza; da Silva Verneque, Rui; Machado, Marco Antonio; Packer, Irineu Umberto

2011-01-01

Now a days, an important and interesting alternative in the control of tick-infestation in cattle is to select resistant animals, and identify the respective quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and DNA markers, for posterior use in breeding programs. The number of ticks/animal is characterized as a discrete-counting trait, which could potentially follow Poisson distribution. However, in the case of an excess of zeros, due to the occurrence of several noninfected animals, zero-inflated Poisson and generalized zero-inflated distribution (GZIP) may provide a better description of the data. Thus, the objective here was to compare through simulation, Poisson and ZIP models (simple and generalized) with classical approaches, for QTL mapping with counting phenotypes under different scenarios, and to apply these approaches to a QTL study of tick resistance in an F2 cattle (Gyr × Holstein) population. It was concluded that, when working with zero-inflated data, it is recommendable to use the generalized and simple ZIP model for analysis. On the other hand, when working with data with zeros, but not zero-inflated, the Poisson model or a data-transformation-approach, such as square-root or Box-Cox transformation, are applicable. PMID:22215960

Hurdle models for multilevel zero-inflated data via h-likelihood.

PubMed

Molas, Marek; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2010-12-30

Count data often exhibit overdispersion. One type of overdispersion arises when there is an excess of zeros in comparison with the standard Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated Poisson and hurdle models have been proposed to perform a valid likelihood-based analysis to account for the surplus of zeros. Further, data often arise in clustered, longitudinal or multiple-membership settings. The proper analysis needs to reflect the design of a study. Typically random effects are used to account for dependencies in the data. We examine the h-likelihood estimation and inference framework for hurdle models with random effects for complex designs. We extend the h-likelihood procedures to fit hurdle models, thereby extending h-likelihood to truncated distributions. Two applications of the methodology are presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Poisson and negative binomial item count techniques for surveys with sensitive question.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Wu, Qin; Liu, Yin

2017-04-01

Although the item count technique is useful in surveys with sensitive questions, privacy of those respondents who possess the sensitive characteristic of interest may not be well protected due to a defect in its original design. In this article, we propose two new survey designs (namely the Poisson item count technique and negative binomial item count technique) which replace several independent Bernoulli random variables required by the original item count technique with a single Poisson or negative binomial random variable, respectively. The proposed models not only provide closed form variance estimate and confidence interval within [0, 1] for the sensitive proportion, but also simplify the survey design of the original item count technique. Most importantly, the new designs do not leak respondents' privacy. Empirical results show that the proposed techniques perform satisfactorily in the sense that it yields accurate parameter estimate and confidence interval.

GMPR: A robust normalization method for zero-inflated count data with application to microbiome sequencing data.

PubMed

Chen, Li; Reeve, James; Zhang, Lujun; Huang, Shengbing; Wang, Xuefeng; Chen, Jun

2018-01-01

Normalization is the first critical step in microbiome sequencing data analysis used to account for variable library sizes. Current RNA-Seq based normalization methods that have been adapted for microbiome data fail to consider the unique characteristics of microbiome data, which contain a vast number of zeros due to the physical absence or under-sampling of the microbes. Normalization methods that specifically address the zero-inflation remain largely undeveloped. Here we propose geometric mean of pairwise ratios-a simple but effective normalization method-for zero-inflated sequencing data such as microbiome data. Simulation studies and real datasets analyses demonstrate that the proposed method is more robust than competing methods, leading to more powerful detection of differentially abundant taxa and higher reproducibility of the relative abundances of taxa.

Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

2014-01-01

Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are

Use of the negative binomial-truncated Poisson distribution in thunderstorm prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, A. C.

1971-01-01

A probability model is presented for the distribution of thunderstorms over a small area given that thunderstorm events (1 or more thunderstorms) are occurring over a larger area. The model incorporates the negative binomial and truncated Poisson distributions. Probability tables for Cape Kennedy for spring, summer, and fall months and seasons are presented. The computer program used to compute these probabilities is appended.

Analysis of overdispersed count data: application to the Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men (HIM) Study.

PubMed

Lee, J-H; Han, G; Fulp, W J; Giuliano, A R

2012-06-01

The Poisson model can be applied to the count of events occurring within a specific time period. The main feature of the Poisson model is the assumption that the mean and variance of the count data are equal. However, this equal mean-variance relationship rarely occurs in observational data. In most cases, the observed variance is larger than the assumed variance, which is called overdispersion. Further, when the observed data involve excessive zero counts, the problem of overdispersion results in underestimating the variance of the estimated parameter, and thus produces a misleading conclusion. We illustrated the use of four models for overdispersed count data that may be attributed to excessive zeros. These are Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models. The example data in this article deal with the number of incidents involving human papillomavirus infection. The four models resulted in differing statistical inferences. The Poisson model, which is widely used in epidemiology research, underestimated the standard errors and overstated the significance of some covariates.

A smooth exit from eternal inflation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawking, S. W.; Hertog, Thomas

2018-04-01

The usual theory of inflation breaks down in eternal inflation. We derive a dual description of eternal inflation in terms of a deformed Euclidean CFT located at the threshold of eternal inflation. The partition function gives the amplitude of different geometries of the threshold surface in the no-boundary state. Its local and global behavior in dual toy models shows that the amplitude is low for surfaces which are not nearly conformal to the round three-sphere and essentially zero for surfaces with negative curvature. Based on this we conjecture that the exit from eternal inflation does not produce an infinite fractal-like multiverse, but is finite and reasonably smooth.

[Application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression in the research of risk factors for injury frequency].

PubMed

Cao, Qingqing; Wu, Zhenqiang; Sun, Ying; Wang, Tiezhu; Han, Tengwei; Gu, Chaomei; Sun, Yehuan

2011-11-01

To Eexplore the application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression analysis in analyzing the influential factors for injury frequency and the risk factors leading to the increase of injury frequency. 2917 primary and secondary school students were selected from Hefei by cluster random sampling method and surveyed by questionnaire. The data on the count event-based injuries used to fitted modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model. The risk factors incurring the increase of unintentional injury frequency for juvenile students was explored, so as to probe the efficiency of these two models in studying the influential factors for injury frequency. The Poisson model existed over-dispersion (P < 0.0001) based on testing by the Lagrangemultiplier. Therefore, the over-dispersion dispersed data using a modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model, was fitted better. respectively. Both showed that male gender, younger age, father working outside of the hometown, the level of the guardian being above junior high school and smoking might be the results of higher injury frequencies. On a tendency of clustered frequency data on injury event, both the modified Poisson regression analysis and negative binomial regression analysis can be used. However, based on our data, the modified Poisson regression fitted better and this model could give a more accurate interpretation of relevant factors affecting the frequency of injury.

Semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson models with application to studies of abundance for multiple species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arab, Ali; Holan, Scott H.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2012-01-01

Ecological studies involving counts of abundance, presence–absence or occupancy rates often produce data having a substantial proportion of zeros. Furthermore, these types of processes are typically multivariate and only adequately described by complex nonlinear relationships involving externally measured covariates. Ignoring these aspects of the data and implementing standard approaches can lead to models that fail to provide adequate scientific understanding of the underlying ecological processes, possibly resulting in a loss of inferential power. One method of dealing with data having excess zeros is to consider the class of univariate zero-inflated generalized linear models. However, this class of models fails to address the multivariate and nonlinear aspects associated with the data usually encountered in practice. Therefore, we propose a semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model that takes into account both of these data attributes. The general modeling framework is hierarchical Bayes and is suitable for a broad range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example on modeling catch per unit area for multiple species using data from the Missouri River Benthic Fishes Study, implemented by the United States Geological Survey.

Selecting a distributional assumption for modelling relative densities of benthic macroinvertebrates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, B.R.

2005-01-01

The selection of a distributional assumption suitable for modelling macroinvertebrate density data is typically challenging. Macroinvertebrate data often exhibit substantially larger variances than expected under a standard count assumption, that of the Poisson distribution. Such overdispersion may derive from multiple sources, including heterogeneity of habitat (historically and spatially), differing life histories for organisms collected within a single collection in space and time, and autocorrelation. Taken to extreme, heterogeneity of habitat may be argued to explain the frequent large proportions of zero observations in macroinvertebrate data. Sampling locations may consist of habitats defined qualitatively as either suitable or unsuitable. The former category may yield random or stochastic zeroes and the latter structural zeroes. Heterogeneity among counts may be accommodated by treating the count mean itself as a random variable, while extra zeroes may be accommodated using zero-modified count assumptions, including zero-inflated and two-stage (or hurdle) approaches. These and linear assumptions (following log- and square root-transformations) were evaluated using 9 years of mayfly density data from a 52 km, ninth-order reach of the Upper Mississippi River (n = 959). The data exhibited substantial overdispersion relative to that expected under a Poisson assumption (i.e. variance:mean ratio = 23 ??? 1), and 43% of the sampling locations yielded zero mayflies. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), count models were improved most by treating the count mean as a random variable (via a Poisson-gamma distributional assumption) and secondarily by zero modification (i.e. improvements in AIC values = 9184 units and 47-48 units, respectively). Zeroes were underestimated by the Poisson, log-transform and square root-transform models, slightly by the standard negative binomial model but not by the zero-modified models (61%, 24%, 32%, 7%, and 0%, respectively

Binomial leap methods for simulating stochastic chemical kinetics.

PubMed

Tian, Tianhai; Burrage, Kevin

2004-12-01

This paper discusses efficient simulation methods for stochastic chemical kinetics. Based on the tau-leap and midpoint tau-leap methods of Gillespie [D. T. Gillespie, J. Chem. Phys. 115, 1716 (2001)], binomial random variables are used in these leap methods rather than Poisson random variables. The motivation for this approach is to improve the efficiency of the Poisson leap methods by using larger stepsizes. Unlike Poisson random variables whose range of sample values is from zero to infinity, binomial random variables have a finite range of sample values. This probabilistic property has been used to restrict possible reaction numbers and to avoid negative molecular numbers in stochastic simulations when larger stepsize is used. In this approach a binomial random variable is defined for a single reaction channel in order to keep the reaction number of this channel below the numbers of molecules that undergo this reaction channel. A sampling technique is also designed for the total reaction number of a reactant species that undergoes two or more reaction channels. Samples for the total reaction number are not greater than the molecular number of this species. In addition, probability properties of the binomial random variables provide stepsize conditions for restricting reaction numbers in a chosen time interval. These stepsize conditions are important properties of robust leap control strategies. Numerical results indicate that the proposed binomial leap methods can be applied to a wide range of chemical reaction systems with very good accuracy and significant improvement on efficiency over existing approaches. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Bayesian inference for disease prevalence using negative binomial group testing

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Nicholas A.; Tebbs, Joshua M.

2011-01-01

Group testing, also known as pooled testing, and inverse sampling are both widely used methods of data collection when the goal is to estimate a small proportion. Taking a Bayesian approach, we consider the new problem of estimating disease prevalence from group testing when inverse (negative binomial) sampling is used. Using different distributions to incorporate prior knowledge of disease incidence and different loss functions, we derive closed form expressions for posterior distributions and resulting point and credible interval estimators. We then evaluate our new estimators, on Bayesian and classical grounds, and apply our methods to a West Nile Virus data set. PMID:21259308

Functional linear models for zero-inflated count data with application to modeling hospitalizations in patients on dialysis.

PubMed

Sentürk, Damla; Dalrymple, Lorien S; Nguyen, Danh V

2014-11-30

We propose functional linear models for zero-inflated count data with a focus on the functional hurdle and functional zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models. Although the hurdle model assumes the counts come from a mixture of a degenerate distribution at zero and a zero-truncated Poisson distribution, the ZIP model considers a mixture of a degenerate distribution at zero and a standard Poisson distribution. We extend the generalized functional linear model framework with a functional predictor and multiple cross-sectional predictors to model counts generated by a mixture distribution. We propose an estimation procedure for functional hurdle and ZIP models, called penalized reconstruction, geared towards error-prone and sparsely observed longitudinal functional predictors. The approach relies on dimension reduction and pooling of information across subjects involving basis expansions and penalized maximum likelihood techniques. The developed functional hurdle model is applied to modeling hospitalizations within the first 2 years from initiation of dialysis, with a high percentage of zeros, in the Comprehensive Dialysis Study participants. Hospitalization counts are modeled as a function of sparse longitudinal measurements of serum albumin concentrations, patient demographics, and comorbidities. Simulation studies are used to study finite sample properties of the proposed method and include comparisons with an adaptation of standard principal components regression. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extending the Applicability of the Generalized Likelihood Function for Zero-Inflated Data Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Debora Y.; Chaffe, Pedro L. B.; Sá, João. H. M.

2018-03-01

Proper uncertainty estimation for data series with a high proportion of zero and near zero observations has been a challenge in hydrologic studies. This technical note proposes a modification to the Generalized Likelihood function that accounts for zero inflation of the error distribution (ZI-GL). We compare the performance of the proposed ZI-GL with the original Generalized Likelihood function using the entire data series (GL) and by simply suppressing zero observations (GLy>0). These approaches were applied to two interception modeling examples characterized by data series with a significant number of zeros. The ZI-GL produced better uncertainty ranges than the GL as measured by the precision, reliability and volumetric bias metrics. The comparison between ZI-GL and GLy>0 highlights the need for further improvement in the treatment of residuals from near zero simulations when a linear heteroscedastic error model is considered. Aside from the interception modeling examples illustrated herein, the proposed ZI-GL may be useful for other hydrologic studies, such as for the modeling of the runoff generation in hillslopes and ephemeral catchments.

Negative Urgency, Distress Tolerance, and Substance Abuse Among College Students

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Alison J.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.; Charnigo, Richard J.

2012-01-01

Objective Negative affect has been consistently linked with substance use/problems in prior research. The present study sought to build upon these findings by exploring how an individual’s characteristic responding to negative affect impacts substance abuse risk. Trait negative affect was examined in relation to substance abuse outcomes along with two variables tapping into response to negative affect: Distress Tolerance, an individual’s perceived ability to tolerate negative affect, and Negative Urgency, the tendency to act rashly while experiencing distress. Method Participants were 525 first-year college students (48.1% male, 81.1% Caucasian), who completed self-report measures assessing personality traits and alcohol-related problems, and a structured interview assessing past and current substance use. Relations were tested using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models, and each of the personality variables was tested in a model on its own, and in a model where all three traits were accounted for. Results Negative Urgency emerged as the best predictor, relating to every one of the substance use outcome variables even when trait negative affect and Distress Tolerance were accounted for. Conclusions These findings suggest that Negative Urgency is an important factor to consider in developing prevention and intervention efforts aimed at reducing substance use and problems. PMID:22698894

Frequency distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis and other helminths of foxes in Kyrgyzstan

PubMed Central

I., Ziadinov; P., Deplazes; A., Mathis; B., Mutunova; K., Abdykerimov; R., Nurgaziev; P.R, Torgerson

2010-01-01

Echinococcosis is a major emerging zoonosis in central Asia. A study of the helminth fauna of foxes from Naryn Oblast in central Kyrgyzstan was undertaken to investigate the abundance of Echinococcus multilocularis in a district where a high prevalence of this parasite had previously been detected in dogs. A total of 151 foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were investigated in a necropsy study. Of these 96 (64%) were infected with E. multilocularis with a mean abundance of 8669 parasites per fox. This indicates that red foxes are a major definitive host of E. multilocularis in this country. This also demonstrates that the abundance and prevalence of E. multilocularis in the natural definitive host are likely to be high in geographical regions where there is a concomitant high prevalence in alternative definitive hosts such as dogs. In addition Mesocestoides spp., Dipylidium caninum, Taenia spp., Toxocara canis, Toxascaris leonina, Capillaria and Acanthocephala spp. were found in 99 (66%), 50 (33%), 48 (32%), 46 (30%), 9 (6%), 34 (23%) and 2 (1%) of foxes, respectively. The prevalence but not the abundance of E. multilocularis decreased with age. The abundance of Dipylidium caninum also decreased with age. The frequency distribution of E. multilocularis and Mesocestoides spp. followed a zero inflated negative binomial distribution, whilst all other helminths had a negative binomial distribution. This demonstrates that the frequency distribution of positive counts and not just the frequency of zeros in the data set can determine if a zero inflated or non-zero inflated model is more appropriate. This is because the prevalences of E. multolocularis and Mesocestoides spp. were the highest (and hence had fewest zero counts) yet the parasite distribution nevertheless gave a better fit to the zero inflated models. PMID:20434845

A Mixed-Effects Heterogeneous Negative Binomial Model for Postfire Conifer Regeneration in Northeastern California, USA

Treesearch

Justin S. Crotteau; Martin W. Ritchie; J. Morgan Varner

2014-01-01

Many western USA fire regimes are typified by mixed-severity fire, which compounds the variability inherent to natural regeneration densities in associated forests. Tree regeneration data are often discrete and nonnegative; accordingly, we fit a series of Poisson and negative binomial variation models to conifer seedling counts across four distinct burn severities and...

A review and comparison of Bayesian and likelihood-based inferences in beta regression and zero-or-one-inflated beta regression.

PubMed

Liu, Fang; Eugenio, Evercita C

2018-04-01

Beta regression is an increasingly popular statistical technique in medical research for modeling of outcomes that assume values in (0, 1), such as proportions and patient reported outcomes. When outcomes take values in the intervals [0,1), (0,1], or [0,1], zero-or-one-inflated beta (zoib) regression can be used. We provide a thorough review on beta regression and zoib regression in the modeling, inferential, and computational aspects via the likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. We demonstrate the statistical and practical importance of correctly modeling the inflation at zero/one rather than ad hoc replacing them with values close to zero/one via simulation studies; the latter approach can lead to biased estimates and invalid inferences. We show via simulation studies that the likelihood-based approach is computationally faster in general than MCMC algorithms used in the Bayesian inferences, but runs the risk of non-convergence, large biases, and sensitivity to starting values in the optimization algorithm especially with clustered/correlated data, data with sparse inflation at zero and one, and data that warrant regularization of the likelihood. The disadvantages of the regular likelihood-based approach make the Bayesian approach an attractive alternative in these cases. Software packages and tools for fitting beta and zoib regressions in both the likelihood-based and Bayesian frameworks are also reviewed.

An application of a zero-inflated lifetime distribution with multiple and incomplete data sources

DOE PAGES

Hamada, M. S.; Margevicius, K. J.

2016-02-11

In this study, we analyze data sampled from a population of parts in which an associated anomaly can occur at assembly or after assembly. Using a zero-inflated lifetime distribution to fit left-censored and right-censored data as well data from a supplementary sample, we make predictions about the proportion of the population with anomalies today and in the future. Goodness-of-fit is also addressed.

Library Book Circulation and the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gelman, E.; Sichel, H. S.

1987-01-01

Argues that library book circulation is a binomial rather than a Poisson process, and that individual book popularities are continuous beta distributions. Three examples demonstrate the superiority of beta over negative binomial distribution, and it is suggested that a bivariate-binomial process would be helpful in predicting future book…

Zero inflation in ordinal data: Incorporating susceptibility to response through the use of a mixture model

PubMed Central

Kelley, Mary E.; Anderson, Stewart J.

2008-01-01

Summary The aim of the paper is to produce a methodology that will allow users of ordinal scale data to more accurately model the distribution of ordinal outcomes in which some subjects are susceptible to exhibiting the response and some are not (i.e., the dependent variable exhibits zero inflation). This situation occurs with ordinal scales in which there is an anchor that represents the absence of the symptom or activity, such as “none”, “never” or “normal”, and is particularly common when measuring abnormal behavior, symptoms, and side effects. Due to the unusually large number of zeros, traditional statistical tests of association can be non-informative. We propose a mixture model for ordinal data with a built-in probability of non-response that allows modeling of the range (e.g., severity) of the scale, while simultaneously modeling the presence/absence of the symptom. Simulations show that the model is well behaved and a likelihood ratio test can be used to choose between the zero-inflated and the traditional proportional odds model. The model, however, does have minor restrictions on the nature of the covariates that must be satisfied in order for the model to be identifiable. The method is particularly relevant for public health research such as large epidemiological surveys where more careful documentation of the reasons for response may be difficult. PMID:18351711

Marginal regression models for clustered count data based on zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution with applications.

PubMed

Choo-Wosoba, Hyoyoung; Levy, Steven M; Datta, Somnath

2016-06-01

Community water fluoridation is an important public health measure to prevent dental caries, but it continues to be somewhat controversial. The Iowa Fluoride Study (IFS) is a longitudinal study on a cohort of Iowa children that began in 1991. The main purposes of this study (http://www.dentistry.uiowa.edu/preventive-fluoride-study) were to quantify fluoride exposures from both dietary and nondietary sources and to associate longitudinal fluoride exposures with dental fluorosis (spots on teeth) and dental caries (cavities). We analyze a subset of the IFS data by a marginal regression model with a zero-inflated version of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution for count data exhibiting excessive zeros and a wide range of dispersion patterns. In general, we introduce two estimation methods for fitting a ZICMP marginal regression model. Finite sample behaviors of the estimators and the resulting confidence intervals are studied using extensive simulation studies. We apply our methodologies to the dental caries data. Our novel modeling incorporating zero inflation, clustering, and overdispersion sheds some new light on the effect of community water fluoridation and other factors. We also include a second application of our methodology to a genomic (next-generation sequencing) dataset that exhibits underdispersion. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil.

PubMed

Nobre, Aline Araújo; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Griep, Rosane Härter; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Chor, Dora

2017-08-17

To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income. The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

Does attitude matter in computer use in Australian general practice? A zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Asaduzzaman; Western, Mark

The purpose of this study was to explore factors that facilitate or hinder effective use of computers in Australian general medical practice. This study is based on data extracted from a national telephone survey of 480 general practitioners (GPs) across Australia. Clinical functions performed by GPs using computers were examined using a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression modelling. About 17% of GPs were not using computer for any clinical function, while 18% reported using computers for all clinical functions. The ZIP model showed that computer anxiety was negatively associated with effective computer use, while practitioners' belief about usefulness of computers was positively associated with effective computer use. Being a female GP or working in partnership or group practice increased the odds of effectively using computers for clinical functions. To fully capitalise on the benefits of computer technology, GPs need to be convinced that this technology is useful and can make a difference.

Sample size determination for a three-arm equivalence trial of Poisson and negative binomial responses.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Wei; Tsong, Yi; Zhao, Zhigen

2017-01-01

Assessing equivalence or similarity has drawn much attention recently as many drug products have lost or will lose their patents in the next few years, especially certain best-selling biologics. To claim equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment when assay sensitivity is well established from historical data, one has to demonstrate both superiority of the test treatment over placebo and equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment. Thus, there is urgency for practitioners to derive a practical way to calculate sample size for a three-arm equivalence trial. The primary endpoints of a clinical trial may not always be continuous, but may be discrete. In this paper, the authors derive power function and discuss sample size requirement for a three-arm equivalence trial with Poisson and negative binomial clinical endpoints. In addition, the authors examine the effect of the dispersion parameter on the power and the sample size by varying its coefficient from small to large. In extensive numerical studies, the authors demonstrate that required sample size heavily depends on the dispersion parameter. Therefore, misusing a Poisson model for negative binomial data may easily lose power up to 20%, depending on the value of the dispersion parameter.

Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency and severity of head-on crashes: case studies from Malaysian federal roads.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Sadullah, Ahmad Farhan

2014-01-01

Head-on crashes are among the most severe collision types and of great concern to road safety authorities. Therefore, it justifies more efforts to reduce both the frequency and severity of this collision type. To this end, it is necessary to first identify factors associating with the crash occurrence. This can be done by developing crash prediction models that relate crash outcomes to a set of contributing factors. This study intends to identify the factors affecting both the frequency and severity of head-on crashes that occurred on 448 segments of five federal roads in Malaysia. Data on road characteristics and crash history were collected on the study segments during a 4-year period between 2007 and 2010. The frequency of head-on crashes were fitted by developing and comparing seven count-data models including Poisson, standard negative binomial (NB), random-effect negative binomial, hurdle Poisson, hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. To model crash severity, a random-effect generalized ordered probit model (REGOPM) was used given a head-on crash had occurred. With respect to the crash frequency, the random-effect negative binomial (RENB) model was found to outperform the other models according to goodness of fit measures. Based on the results of the model, the variables horizontal curvature, terrain type, heavy-vehicle traffic, and access points were found to be positively related to the frequency of head-on crashes, while posted speed limit and shoulder width decreased the crash frequency. With regard to the crash severity, the results of REGOPM showed that horizontal curvature, paved shoulder width, terrain type, and side friction were associated with more severe crashes, whereas land use, access points, and presence of median reduced the probability of severe crashes. Based on the results of this study, some potential countermeasures were proposed to minimize the risk of head-on crashes. Copyright �

Classifying next-generation sequencing data using a zero-inflated Poisson model.

PubMed

Zhou, Yan; Wan, Xiang; Zhang, Baoxue; Tong, Tiejun

2018-04-15

With the development of high-throughput techniques, RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) is becoming increasingly popular as an alternative for gene expression analysis, such as RNAs profiling and classification. Identifying which type of diseases a new patient belongs to with RNA-seq data has been recognized as a vital problem in medical research. As RNA-seq data are discrete, statistical methods developed for classifying microarray data cannot be readily applied for RNA-seq data classification. Witten proposed a Poisson linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) to classify the RNA-seq data in 2011. Note, however, that the count datasets are frequently characterized by excess zeros in real RNA-seq or microRNA sequence data (i.e. when the sequence depth is not enough or small RNAs with the length of 18-30 nucleotides). Therefore, it is desired to develop a new model to analyze RNA-seq data with an excess of zeros. In this paper, we propose a Zero-Inflated Poisson Logistic Discriminant Analysis (ZIPLDA) for RNA-seq data with an excess of zeros. The new method assumes that the data are from a mixture of two distributions: one is a point mass at zero, and the other follows a Poisson distribution. We then consider a logistic relation between the probability of observing zeros and the mean of the genes and the sequencing depth in the model. Simulation studies show that the proposed method performs better than, or at least as well as, the existing methods in a wide range of settings. Two real datasets including a breast cancer RNA-seq dataset and a microRNA-seq dataset are also analyzed, and they coincide with the simulation results that our proposed method outperforms the existing competitors. The software is available at http://www.math.hkbu.edu.hk/∼tongt. xwan@comp.hkbu.edu.hk or tongt@hkbu.edu.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Empirical null estimation using zero-inflated discrete mixture distributions and its application to protein domain data.

PubMed

Gauran, Iris Ivy M; Park, Junyong; Lim, Johan; Park, DoHwan; Zylstra, John; Peterson, Thomas; Kann, Maricel; Spouge, John L

2017-09-22

In recent mutation studies, analyses based on protein domain positions are gaining popularity over gene-centric approaches since the latter have limitations in considering the functional context that the position of the mutation provides. This presents a large-scale simultaneous inference problem, with hundreds of hypothesis tests to consider at the same time. This article aims to select significant mutation counts while controlling a given level of Type I error via False Discovery Rate (FDR) procedures. One main assumption is that the mutation counts follow a zero-inflated model in order to account for the true zeros in the count model and the excess zeros. The class of models considered is the Zero-inflated Generalized Poisson (ZIGP) distribution. Furthermore, we assumed that there exists a cut-off value such that smaller counts than this value are generated from the null distribution. We present several data-dependent methods to determine the cut-off value. We also consider a two-stage procedure based on screening process so that the number of mutations exceeding a certain value should be considered as significant mutations. Simulated and protein domain data sets are used to illustrate this procedure in estimation of the empirical null using a mixture of discrete distributions. Overall, while maintaining control of the FDR, the proposed two-stage testing procedure has superior empirical power. 2017 The Authors. Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Mapping species abundance by a spatial zero-inflated Poisson model: a case study in the Wadden Sea, the Netherlands.

PubMed

Lyashevska, Olga; Brus, Dick J; van der Meer, Jaap

2016-01-01

The objective of the study was to provide a general procedure for mapping species abundance when data are zero-inflated and spatially correlated counts. The bivalve species Macoma balthica was observed on a 500×500 m grid in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. In total, 66% of the 3451 counts were zeros. A zero-inflated Poisson mixture model was used to relate counts to environmental covariates. Two models were considered, one with relatively fewer covariates (model "small") than the other (model "large"). The models contained two processes: a Bernoulli (species prevalence) and a Poisson (species intensity, when the Bernoulli process predicts presence). The model was used to make predictions for sites where only environmental data are available. Predicted prevalences and intensities show that the model "small" predicts lower mean prevalence and higher mean intensity, than the model "large". Yet, the product of prevalence and intensity, which might be called the unconditional intensity, is very similar. Cross-validation showed that the model "small" performed slightly better, but the difference was small. The proposed methodology might be generally applicable, but is computer intensive.

Unified Computational Methods for Regression Analysis of Zero-Inflated and Bound-Inflated Data

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Simpson, Douglas

2010-01-01

Bounded data with excess observations at the boundary are common in many areas of application. Various individual cases of inflated mixture models have been studied in the literature for bound-inflated data, yet the computational methods have been developed separately for each type of model. In this article we use a common framework for computing these models, and expand the range of models for both discrete and semi-continuous data with point inflation at the lower boundary. The quasi-Newton and EM algorithms are adapted and compared for estimation of model parameters. The numerical Hessian and generalized Louis method are investigated as means for computing standard errors after optimization. Correlated data are included in this framework via generalized estimating equations. The estimation of parameters and effectiveness of standard errors are demonstrated through simulation and in the analysis of data from an ultrasound bioeffect study. The unified approach enables reliable computation for a wide class of inflated mixture models and comparison of competing models. PMID:20228950

DEsingle for detecting three types of differential expression in single-cell RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Miao, Zhun; Deng, Ke; Wang, Xiaowo; Zhang, Xuegong

2018-04-24

The excessive amount of zeros in single-cell RNA-seq data include "real" zeros due to the on-off nature of gene transcription in single cells and "dropout" zeros due to technical reasons. Existing differential expression (DE) analysis methods cannot distinguish these two types of zeros. We developed an R package DEsingle which employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model to estimate the proportion of real and dropout zeros and to define and detect 3 types of DE genes in single-cell RNA-seq data with higher accuracy. The R package DEsingle is freely available at https://github.com/miaozhun/DEsingle and is under Bioconductor's consideration now. zhangxg@tsinghua.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

PubMed

Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

2008-03-01

There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

Use of negative binomial distribution to describe the presence of Anisakis in Thyrsites atun.

PubMed

Peña-Rehbein, Patricio; De los Ríos-Escalante, Patricio

2012-01-01

Nematodes of the genus Anisakis have marine fishes as intermediate hosts. One of these hosts is Thyrsites atun, an important fishery resource in Chile between 38 and 41° S. This paper describes the frequency and number of Anisakis nematodes in the internal organs of Thyrsites atun. An analysis based on spatial distribution models showed that the parasites tend to be clustered. The variation in the number of parasites per host could be described by the negative binomial distribution. The maximum observed number of parasites was nine parasites per host. The environmental and zoonotic aspects of the study are also discussed.

Transient establishment of the wavefronts for negative, zero, and positive refraction.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenjuan; Wu, Qiang; Wang, Ride; Gao, Jianshun; Lu, Yao; Zhang, Qi; Qi, Jiwei; Zhang, Chunling; Pan, Chongpei; Rupp, Romano; Xu, Jingjun

2018-01-22

We quantitatively demonstrate transient establishment of wavefronts for negative, zero, and positive refraction through a wedge-shaped metamaterial consisting of periodically arranged split-ring resonators and metallic wires. The wavefronts for the three types of refractions propagate through the second interface of the wedge along positive refraction angles at first, then reorganize, and finally propagate along the effective refraction angles after a period of establishment time respectively. The establishment time of the wavefronts prevents violating causality or superluminal propagation for negative and zero refraction. The establishment time for negative or zero refraction is longer than that for positive refraction. For all three refraction processes, transient establishment processes precede the establishment of steady propagation. Moreover, some detailed characters are proven in our research, including infinite wavelength, uniform phase inside the zero-index material, and the phase velocity being antiparallel to the group velocity in the negative-index material.

A methodology to design heuristics for model selection based on the characteristics of data: Application to investigate when the Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB).

PubMed

Shirazi, Mohammadali; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

2017-10-01

Safety analysts usually use post-modeling methods, such as the Goodness-of-Fit statistics or the Likelihood Ratio Test, to decide between two or more competitive distributions or models. Such metrics require all competitive distributions to be fitted to the data before any comparisons can be accomplished. Given the continuous growth in introducing new statistical distributions, choosing the best one using such post-modeling methods is not a trivial task, in addition to all theoretical or numerical issues the analyst may face during the analysis. Furthermore, and most importantly, these measures or tests do not provide any intuitions into why a specific distribution (or model) is preferred over another (Goodness-of-Logic). This paper ponders into these issues by proposing a methodology to design heuristics for Model Selection based on the characteristics of data, in terms of descriptive summary statistics, before fitting the models. The proposed methodology employs two analytic tools: (1) Monte-Carlo Simulations and (2) Machine Learning Classifiers, to design easy heuristics to predict the label of the 'most-likely-true' distribution for analyzing data. The proposed methodology was applied to investigate when the recently introduced Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) distribution is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Heuristics were designed to select the 'most-likely-true' distribution between these two distributions, given a set of prescribed summary statistics of data. The proposed heuristics were successfully compared against classical tests for several real or observed datasets. Not only they are easy to use and do not need any post-modeling inputs, but also, using these heuristics, the analyst can attain useful information about why the NB-L is preferred over the NB - or vice versa- when modeling data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness on Early Childhood Caries of an Oral Health Promotion Program for Medical Providers

PubMed Central

Widmer-Racich, Katina; Sevick, Carter; Starzyk, Erin J.; Mauritson, Katya; Hambidge, Simon J.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To assess an oral health promotion (OHP) intervention for medical providers’ impact on early childhood caries (ECC). Methods. We implemented a quasiexperimental OHP intervention in 8 federally qualified health centers that trained medical providers on ECC risk assessment, oral examination and instruction, dental referral, and fluoride varnish applications (FVAs). We measured OHP delivery by FVA count at medical visits. We measured the intervention’s impact on ECC in 3 unique cohorts of children aged 3 to 4 years in 2009 (preintervention; n = 202), 2011 (midintervention; n = 420), and 2015 (≥ 4 FVAs; n = 153). We compared numbers of decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces using adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models. Results. Across 3 unique cohorts, the FVA mean (range) count was 0.0 (0), 1.1 (0–7), and 4.5 (4–7) in 2009, 2011, and 2015, respectively. In adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models analyses, children in the 2015 cohort had significantly fewer decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces than did children in previous cohorts. Conclusions. An OHP intervention targeting medical providers reduced ECC when children received 4 or more FVAs at a medical visit by age 3 years. PMID:28661802

A time-varying effect model for examining group differences in trajectories of zero-inflated count outcomes with applications in substance abuse research.

PubMed

Yang, Songshan; Cranford, James A; Jester, Jennifer M; Li, Runze; Zucker, Robert A; Buu, Anne

2017-02-28

This study proposes a time-varying effect model for examining group differences in trajectories of zero-inflated count outcomes. The motivating example demonstrates that this zero-inflated Poisson model allows investigators to study group differences in different aspects of substance use (e.g., the probability of abstinence and the quantity of alcohol use) simultaneously. The simulation study shows that the accuracy of estimation of trajectory functions improves as the sample size increases; the accuracy under equal group sizes is only higher when the sample size is small (100). In terms of the performance of the hypothesis testing, the type I error rates are close to their corresponding significance levels under all settings. Furthermore, the power increases as the alternative hypothesis deviates more from the null hypothesis, and the rate of this increasing trend is higher when the sample size is larger. Moreover, the hypothesis test for the group difference in the zero component tends to be less powerful than the test for the group difference in the Poisson component. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling health survey data with excessive zero and K responses.

PubMed

Lin, Ting Hsiang; Tsai, Min-Hsiao

2013-04-30

Zero-inflated Poisson regression is a popular tool used to analyze data with excessive zeros. Although much work has already been performed to fit zero-inflated data, most models heavily depend on special features of the individual data. To be specific, this means that there is a sizable group of respondents who endorse the same answers making the data have peaks. In this paper, we propose a new model with the flexibility to model excessive counts other than zero, and the model is a mixture of multinomial logistic and Poisson regression, in which the multinomial logistic component models the occurrence of excessive counts, including zeros, K (where K is a positive integer) and all other values. The Poisson regression component models the counts that are assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Two examples are provided to illustrate our models when the data have counts containing many ones and sixes. As a result, the zero-inflated and K-inflated models exhibit a better fit than the zero-inflated Poisson and standard Poisson regressions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dental Caries and Enamel Defects in Very Low Birth Weight Adolescents

PubMed Central

Nelson, S.; Albert, J.M.; Lombardi, G.; Wishnek, S.; Asaad, G.; Kirchner, H.L.; Singer, L.T.

2011-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to examine developmental enamel defects and dental caries in very low birth weight adolescents with high risk (HR-VLBW) and low risk (LR-VLBW) compared to full-term (term) adolescents. Methods The sample consisted of 224 subjects (80 HR-VLBW, 59 LR-VLBW, 85 term adolescents) recruited from an ongoing longitudinal study. Sociodemographic and medical information was available from birth. Dental examination of the adolescent at the 14-year visit included: enamel defects (opacity and hypoplasia); decayed, missing, filled teeth of incisors and molars (DMFT-IM) and of overall permanent teeth (DMFT); Simplified Oral Hygiene Index for debris/calculus on teeth, and sealant presence. A caregiver questionnaire completed simultaneously assessed dental behavior, access, insurance status and prevention factors. Hierarchical analysis utilized the zero-inflated negative binomial model and zero-inflated Poisson model. Results The zero-inflated negative binomial model controlling for sociodemographic variables indicated that the LR-VLBW group had an estimated 75% increase (p < 0.05) in number of demarcated opacities in the incisors and first molar teeth compared to the term group. Hierarchical modeling indicated that demarcated opacities were a significant predictor of DMFT-IM after control for relevant covariates. The term adolescents had significantly increased DMFT-IM and DMFT scores compared to the LR-VLBW adolescents. Conclusion LR-VLBW was a significant risk factor for increased enamel defects in the permanent incisors and first molars. Term children had increased caries compared to the LR-VLBW group. The effect of birth group and enamel defects on caries has to be investigated longitudinally from birth. PMID:20975268

Applying the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects to detect abnormal rises in school absenteeism indicating infectious diseases outbreak.

PubMed

Song, X X; Zhao, Q; Tao, T; Zhou, C M; Diwan, V K; Xu, B

2018-05-30

Records of absenteeism from primary schools are valuable data for infectious diseases surveillance. However, the analysis of the absenteeism is complicated by the data features of clustering at zero, non-independence and overdispersion. This study aimed to generate an appropriate model to handle the absenteeism data collected in a European Commission granted project for infectious disease surveillance in rural China and to evaluate the validity and timeliness of the resulting model for early warnings of infectious disease outbreak. Four steps were taken: (1) building a 'well-fitting' model by the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects (ZIP-RE) using the absenteeism data from the first implementation year; (2) applying the resulting model to predict the 'expected' number of absenteeism events in the second implementation year; (3) computing the differences between the observations and the expected values (O-E values) to generate an alternative series of data; (4) evaluating the early warning validity and timeliness of the observational data and model-based O-E values via the EARS-3C algorithms with regard to the detection of real cluster events. The results indicate that ZIP-RE and its corresponding O-E values could improve the detection of aberrations, reduce the false-positive signals and are applicable to the zero-inflated data.

MIXED MODEL AND ESTIMATING EQUATION APPROACHES FOR ZERO INFLATION IN CLUSTERED BINARY RESPONSE DATA WITH APPLICATION TO A DATING VIOLENCE STUDY1

PubMed Central

Fulton, Kara A.; Liu, Danping; Haynie, Denise L.; Albert, Paul S.

2016-01-01

The NEXT Generation Health study investigates the dating violence of adolescents using a survey questionnaire. Each student is asked to affirm or deny multiple instances of violence in his/her dating relationship. There is, however, evidence suggesting that students not in a relationship responded to the survey, resulting in excessive zeros in the responses. This paper proposes likelihood-based and estimating equation approaches to analyze the zero-inflated clustered binary response data. We adopt a mixed model method to account for the cluster effect, and the model parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood (ML) approach that requires a Gaussian–Hermite quadrature (GHQ) approximation for implementation. Since an incorrect assumption on the random effects distribution may bias the results, we construct generalized estimating equations (GEE) that do not require the correct specification of within-cluster correlation. In a series of simulation studies, we examine the performance of ML and GEE methods in terms of their bias, efficiency and robustness. We illustrate the importance of properly accounting for this zero inflation by reanalyzing the NEXT data where this issue has previously been ignored. PMID:26937263

Context-sensitivity of the feedback-related negativity for zero-value feedback outcomes.

PubMed

Pfabigan, Daniela M; Seidel, Eva-Maria; Paul, Katharina; Grahl, Arvina; Sailer, Uta; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian; Lamm, Claus

2015-01-01

The present study investigated whether the same visual stimulus indicating zero-value feedback (€0) elicits feedback-related negativity (FRN) variation, depending on whether the outcomes correspond with expectations or not. Thirty-one volunteers performed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task while EEG was recorded. FRN amplitudes were comparable and more negative when zero-value outcome deviated from expectations than with expected gain or loss, supporting theories emphasising the impact of unexpectedness and salience on FRN amplitudes. Surprisingly, expected zero-value outcomes elicited the most negative FRNs. However, source localisation showed that such outcomes evoked less activation in cingulate areas than unexpected zero-value outcomes. Our study illustrates the context dependency of identical zero-value feedback stimuli. Moreover, the results indicate that the incentive cues in the MID task evoke different reward prediction error signals. These prediction signals differ in FRN amplitude and neuronal sources, and have to be considered in the design and interpretation of future studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lung mechanical and vascular changes during positive- and negative-pressure lung inflations: importance of reference pressures in the pulmonary vasculature.

PubMed

Peták, Ferenc; Albu, Gergely; Lele, Enikö; Hantos, Zoltán; Morel, Denis R; Fontao, Fabienne; Habre, Walid

2009-03-01

The continuous changes in lung mechanics were related to those in pulmonary vascular resistance (Rv) during lung inflations to clarify the mechanical changes in the bronchoalveolar system and the pulmonary vasculature. Rv and low-frequency lung impedance data (Zl) were measured continuously in isolated, perfused rat lungs during 2-min inflation-deflation maneuvers between transpulmonary pressures of 2.5 and 22 cmH(2)O, both by applying positive pressure at the trachea and by generating negative pressure around the lungs in a closed box. ZL was averaged and evaluated for 2-s time windows; airway resistance (Raw), parenchymal damping and elastance (H) were determined in each window. Lung inflation with positive and negative pressures led to very similar changes in lung mechanics, with maximum decreases in Raw [-68 +/- 4 (SE) vs. -64 +/- 18%] and maximum increases in H (379 +/- 36 vs. 348 +/- 37%). Rv, however, increased with positive inflation pressure (15 +/- 1%), whereas it exhibited mild decreases during negative-pressure expansions (-3 +/- 0.3%). These results demonstrate that pulmonary mechanical changes are not affected by the opposing modes of lung inflations and confirm the importance of relating the pulmonary vascular pressures in interpreting changes in Rv.

The emergence of gravity as a retro-causal post-inflation macro-quantum-coherent holographic vacuum Higgs-Goldstone field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarfatti, Jack; Levit, Creon

2009-06-01

We present a model for the origin of gravity, dark energy and dark matter: Dark energy and dark matter are residual pre-inflation false vacuum random zero point energy (w = - 1) of large-scale negative, and short-scale positive pressure, respectively, corresponding to the "zero point" (incoherent) component of a superfluid (supersolid) ground state. Gravity, in contrast, arises from the 2nd order topological defects in the post-inflation virtual "condensate" (coherent) component. We predict, as a consequence, that the LHC will never detect exotic real on-mass-shell particles that can explain dark matter ΩMDM approx 0.23. We also point out that the future holographic dark energy de Sitter horizon is a total absorber (in the sense of retro-causal Wheeler-Feynman action-at-a-distance electrodynamics) because it is an infinite redshift surface for static detectors. Therefore, the advanced Hawking-Unruh thermal radiation from the future de Sitter horizon is a candidate for the negative pressure dark vacuum energy.

A comparison of different ways of including baseline counts in negative binomial models for data from falls prevention trials.

PubMed

Zheng, Han; Kimber, Alan; Goodwin, Victoria A; Pickering, Ruth M

2018-01-01

A common design for a falls prevention trial is to assess falling at baseline, randomize participants into an intervention or control group, and ask them to record the number of falls they experience during a follow-up period of time. This paper addresses how best to include the baseline count in the analysis of the follow-up count of falls in negative binomial (NB) regression. We examine the performance of various approaches in simulated datasets where both counts are generated from a mixed Poisson distribution with shared random subject effect. Including the baseline count after log-transformation as a regressor in NB regression (NB-logged) or as an offset (NB-offset) resulted in greater power than including the untransformed baseline count (NB-unlogged). Cook and Wei's conditional negative binomial (CNB) model replicates the underlying process generating the data. In our motivating dataset, a statistically significant intervention effect resulted from the NB-logged, NB-offset, and CNB models, but not from NB-unlogged, and large, outlying baseline counts were overly influential in NB-unlogged but not in NB-logged. We conclude that there is little to lose by including the log-transformed baseline count in standard NB regression compared to CNB for moderate to larger sized datasets. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The analysis of incontinence episodes and other count data in patients with overactive bladder by Poisson and negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Martina, R; Kay, R; van Maanen, R; Ridder, A

2015-01-01

Clinical studies in overactive bladder have traditionally used analysis of covariance or nonparametric methods to analyse the number of incontinence episodes and other count data. It is known that if the underlying distributional assumptions of a particular parametric method do not hold, an alternative parametric method may be more efficient than a nonparametric one, which makes no assumptions regarding the underlying distribution of the data. Therefore, there are advantages in using methods based on the Poisson distribution or extensions of that method, which incorporate specific features that provide a modelling framework for count data. One challenge with count data is overdispersion, but methods are available that can account for this through the introduction of random effect terms in the modelling, and it is this modelling framework that leads to the negative binomial distribution. These models can also provide clinicians with a clearer and more appropriate interpretation of treatment effects in terms of rate ratios. In this paper, the previously used parametric and non-parametric approaches are contrasted with those based on Poisson regression and various extensions in trials evaluating solifenacin and mirabegron in patients with overactive bladder. In these applications, negative binomial models are seen to fit the data well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zero-Inflated Poisson Modeling of Fall Risk Factors in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

PubMed

Jung, Dukyoo; Kang, Younhee; Kim, Mi Young; Ma, Rye-Won; Bhandari, Pratibha

2016-02-01

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for falls among community-dwelling older adults. The study used a cross-sectional descriptive design. Self-report questionnaires were used to collect data from 658 community-dwelling older adults and were analyzed using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression. Perceived health status was a significant factor in the count model, and fall efficacy emerged as a significant predictor in the logistic models. The findings suggest that fall efficacy is important for predicting not only faller and nonfaller status but also fall counts in older adults who may or may not have experienced a previous fall. The fall predictors identified in this study--perceived health status and fall efficacy--indicate the need for fall-prevention programs tailored to address both the physical and psychological issues unique to older adults. © The Author(s) 2014.

Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of zero-inflated biological population density data by a delta-normal spatiotemporal additive model.

PubMed

Arcuti, Simona; Pollice, Alessio; Ribecco, Nunziata; D'Onghia, Gianfranco

2016-03-01

We evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in the density of a particular species of crustacean known as deep-water rose shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris, based on biological sample data collected during trawl surveys carried out from 1995 to 2006 as part of the international project MEDITS (MEDiterranean International Trawl Surveys). As is the case for many biological variables, density data are continuous and characterized by unusually large amounts of zeros, accompanied by a skewed distribution of the remaining values. Here we analyze the normalized density data by a Bayesian delta-normal semiparametric additive model including the effects of covariates, using penalized regression with low-rank thin-plate splines for nonlinear spatial and temporal effects. Modeling the zero and nonzero values by two joint processes, as we propose in this work, allows to obtain great flexibility and easily handling of complex likelihood functions, avoiding inaccurate statistical inferences due to misclassification of the high proportion of exact zeros in the model. Bayesian model estimation is obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, suitably specifying the complex likelihood function of the zero-inflated density data. The study highlights relevant nonlinear spatial and temporal effects and the influence of the annual Mediterranean oscillations index and of the sea surface temperature on the distribution of the deep-water rose shrimp density. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models.

PubMed

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D; Sarran, Christophe

2013-05-01

Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.

Dark energy from gravitoelectromagnetic inflation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Membiela, F. A.; Bellini, M.

2008-02-01

Gravitoectromagnetic Inflation (GI) was introduced to describe in an unified manner, electromagnetic, gravitatory and inflaton fields from a 5D vacuum state. On the other hand, the primordial origin and evolution of dark energy is today unknown. In this letter we show using GI that the zero modes of some redefined vector fields $B_i=A_i/a$ produced during inflation, could be the source of dark energy in the universe.

Disease Mapping of Zero-excessive Mesothelioma Data in Flanders

PubMed Central

Neyens, Thomas; Lawson, Andrew B.; Kirby, Russell S.; Nuyts, Valerie; Watjou, Kevin; Aregay, Mehreteab; Carroll, Rachel; Nawrot, Tim S.; Faes, Christel

2016-01-01

Purpose To investigate the distribution of mesothelioma in Flanders using Bayesian disease mapping models that account for both an excess of zeros and overdispersion. Methods The numbers of newly diagnosed mesothelioma cases within all Flemish municipalities between 1999 and 2008 were obtained from the Belgian Cancer Registry. To deal with overdispersion, zero-inflation and geographical association, the hurdle combined model was proposed, which has three components: a Bernoulli zero-inflation mixture component to account for excess zeros, a gamma random effect to adjust for overdispersion and a normal conditional autoregressive random effect to attribute spatial association. This model was compared with other existing methods in literature. Results The results indicate that hurdle models with a random effects term accounting for extra-variance in the Bernoulli zero-inflation component fit the data better than hurdle models that do not take overdispersion in the occurrence of zeros into account. Furthermore, traditional models that do not take into account excessive zeros but contain at least one random effects term that models extra-variance in the counts have better fits compared to their hurdle counterparts. In other words, the extra-variability, due to an excess of zeros, can be accommodated by spatially structured and/or unstructured random effects in a Poisson model such that the hurdle mixture model is not necessary. Conclusions Models taking into account zero-inflation do not always provide better fits to data with excessive zeros than less complex models. In this study, a simple conditional autoregressive model identified a cluster in mesothelioma cases near a former asbestos processing plant (Kapelle-op-den-Bos). This observation is likely linked with historical local asbestos exposures. Future research will clarify this. PMID:27908590

Disease mapping of zero-excessive mesothelioma data in Flanders.

PubMed

Neyens, Thomas; Lawson, Andrew B; Kirby, Russell S; Nuyts, Valerie; Watjou, Kevin; Aregay, Mehreteab; Carroll, Rachel; Nawrot, Tim S; Faes, Christel

2017-01-01

To investigate the distribution of mesothelioma in Flanders using Bayesian disease mapping models that account for both an excess of zeros and overdispersion. The numbers of newly diagnosed mesothelioma cases within all Flemish municipalities between 1999 and 2008 were obtained from the Belgian Cancer Registry. To deal with overdispersion, zero inflation, and geographical association, the hurdle combined model was proposed, which has three components: a Bernoulli zero-inflation mixture component to account for excess zeros, a gamma random effect to adjust for overdispersion, and a normal conditional autoregressive random effect to attribute spatial association. This model was compared with other existing methods in literature. The results indicate that hurdle models with a random effects term accounting for extra variance in the Bernoulli zero-inflation component fit the data better than hurdle models that do not take overdispersion in the occurrence of zeros into account. Furthermore, traditional models that do not take into account excessive zeros but contain at least one random effects term that models extra variance in the counts have better fits compared to their hurdle counterparts. In other words, the extra variability, due to an excess of zeros, can be accommodated by spatially structured and/or unstructured random effects in a Poisson model such that the hurdle mixture model is not necessary. Models taking into account zero inflation do not always provide better fits to data with excessive zeros than less complex models. In this study, a simple conditional autoregressive model identified a cluster in mesothelioma cases near a former asbestos processing plant (Kapelle-op-den-Bos). This observation is likely linked with historical local asbestos exposures. Future research will clarify this. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical procedures for analyzing mental health services data.

PubMed

Elhai, Jon D; Calhoun, Patrick S; Ford, Julian D

2008-08-15

In mental health services research, analyzing service utilization data often poses serious problems, given the presence of substantially skewed data distributions. This article presents a non-technical introduction to statistical methods specifically designed to handle the complexly distributed datasets that represent mental health service use, including Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated, and zero-truncated regression models. A flowchart is provided to assist the investigator in selecting the most appropriate method. Finally, a dataset of mental health service use reported by medical patients is described, and a comparison of results across several different statistical methods is presented. Implications of matching data analytic techniques appropriately with the often complexly distributed datasets of mental health services utilization variables are discussed.

A new multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson model with applications to biomedicine.

PubMed

Liu, Yin; Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Yuen, Kam Chuen

2018-05-25

Recently, although advances were made on modeling multivariate count data, existing models really has several limitations: (i) The multivariate Poisson log-normal model (Aitchison and Ho, ) cannot be used to fit multivariate count data with excess zero-vectors; (ii) The multivariate zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution (Li et al., 1999) cannot be used to model zero-truncated/deflated count data and it is difficult to apply to high-dimensional cases; (iii) The Type I multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson (ZAP) distribution (Tian et al., 2017) could only model multivariate count data with a special correlation structure for random components that are all positive or negative. In this paper, we first introduce a new multivariate ZAP distribution, based on a multivariate Poisson distribution, which allows the correlations between components with a more flexible dependency structure, that is some of the correlation coefficients could be positive while others could be negative. We then develop its important distributional properties, and provide efficient statistical inference methods for multivariate ZAP model with or without covariates. Two real data examples in biomedicine are used to illustrate the proposed methods. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

PubMed

Kéry, Marc

2018-02-01

Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

QNB: differential RNA methylation analysis for count-based small-sample sequencing data with a quad-negative binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Lian; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Huang, Yufei; Meng, Jia

2017-08-31

As a newly emerged research area, RNA epigenetics has drawn increasing attention recently for the participation of RNA methylation and other modifications in a number of crucial biological processes. Thanks to high throughput sequencing techniques, such as, MeRIP-Seq, transcriptome-wide RNA methylation profile is now available in the form of count-based data, with which it is often of interests to study the dynamics at epitranscriptomic layer. However, the sample size of RNA methylation experiment is usually very small due to its costs; and additionally, there usually exist a large number of genes whose methylation level cannot be accurately estimated due to their low expression level, making differential RNA methylation analysis a difficult task. We present QNB, a statistical approach for differential RNA methylation analysis with count-based small-sample sequencing data. Compared with previous approaches such as DRME model based on a statistical test covering the IP samples only with 2 negative binomial distributions, QNB is based on 4 independent negative binomial distributions with their variances and means linked by local regressions, and in the way, the input control samples are also properly taken care of. In addition, different from DRME approach, which relies only the input control sample only for estimating the background, QNB uses a more robust estimator for gene expression by combining information from both input and IP samples, which could largely improve the testing performance for very lowly expressed genes. QNB showed improved performance on both simulated and real MeRIP-Seq datasets when compared with competing algorithms. And the QNB model is also applicable to other datasets related RNA modifications, including but not limited to RNA bisulfite sequencing, m 1 A-Seq, Par-CLIP, RIP-Seq, etc.

Analyzing hospitalization data: potential limitations of Poisson regression.

PubMed

Weaver, Colin G; Ravani, Pietro; Oliver, Matthew J; Austin, Peter C; Quinn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Poisson regression is commonly used to analyze hospitalization data when outcomes are expressed as counts (e.g. number of days in hospital). However, data often violate the assumptions on which Poisson regression is based. More appropriate extensions of this model, while available, are rarely used. We compared hospitalization data between 206 patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) and 107 treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) using Poisson regression and compared results from standard Poisson regression with those obtained using three other approaches for modeling count data: negative binomial (NB) regression, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression. We examined the appropriateness of each model and compared the results obtained with each approach. During a mean 1.9 years of follow-up, 183 of 313 patients (58%) were never hospitalized (indicating an excess of 'zeros'). The data also displayed overdispersion (variance greater than mean), violating another assumption of the Poisson model. Using four criteria, we determined that the NB and ZINB models performed best. According to these two models, patients treated with HD experienced similar hospitalization rates as those receiving PD {NB rate ratio (RR): 1.04 [bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-2.20]; ZINB summary RR: 1.21 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.60-2.46)}. Poisson and ZIP models fit the data poorly and had much larger point estimates than the NB and ZINB models [Poisson RR: 1.93 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-4.23); ZIP summary RR: 1.84 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-3.84)]. We found substantially different results when modeling hospitalization data, depending on the approach used. Our results argue strongly for a sound model selection process and improved reporting around statistical methods used for modeling count data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

Design and analysis of three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints.

PubMed

Mütze, Tobias; Munk, Axel; Friede, Tim

2016-02-20

A three-arm clinical trial design with an experimental treatment, an active control, and a placebo control, commonly referred to as the gold standard design, enables testing of non-inferiority or superiority of the experimental treatment compared with the active control. In this paper, we propose methods for designing and analyzing three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints. In particular, we develop a Wald-type test with a restricted maximum-likelihood variance estimator for testing non-inferiority or superiority. For this test, sample size and power formulas as well as optimal sample size allocations will be derived. The performance of the proposed test will be assessed in an extensive simulation study with regard to type I error rate, power, sample size, and sample size allocation. For the purpose of comparison, Wald-type statistics with a sample variance estimator and an unrestricted maximum-likelihood estimator are included in the simulation study. We found that the proposed Wald-type test with a restricted variance estimator performed well across the considered scenarios and is therefore recommended for application in clinical trials. The methods proposed are motivated and illustrated by a recent clinical trial in multiple sclerosis. The R package ThreeArmedTrials, which implements the methods discussed in this paper, is available on CRAN. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quasiopen inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier

1998-04-01

We show that a large class of two-field models of single-bubble open inflation does not lead to infinite open universes, as was previously thought, but to an ensemble of very large but finite inflating ``islands.'' The reason is that the quantum tunneling responsible for the nucleation of the bubble does not occur simultaneously along both field directions and equal-time hypersurfaces in the open universe are not synchronized with equal-density or fixed-field hypersurfaces. The most probable tunneling trajectory corresponds to a zero value of the inflaton field; large values, necessary for the second period of inflation inside the bubble, only arise as localized fluctuations. The interior of each nucleated bubble will contain an infinite number of such inflating regions of comoving size of order γ-1, where γ is the supercurvature eigenvalue, which depends on the parameters of the model. Each one of these islands will be a quasi-open universe. Since the volume of the hyperboloid is infinite, inflating islands with all possible values of the field at their center will be realized inside of a single bubble. We may happen to live in one of those patches of comoving size d<~γ-1, where the universe appears to be open. In particular, we consider the ``supernatural'' model proposed by Linde and Mezhlumian. There, an approximate U(1) symmetry is broken by a tunneling field in a first order phase transition, and slow-roll inflation inside the nucleated bubble is driven by the pseudo Goldstone field. We find that the excitations of the pseudo Goldstone field produced by the nucleation and subsequent expansion of the bubble place severe constraints on this model. We also discuss the coupled and uncoupled two-field models.

Referent group proximity, social norms, and context: alcohol use in a low-use environment.

PubMed

Cox, Jared M; Bates, Scott C

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between perceived normative use of alcohol and reported consumption in an environment where relatively little alcohol use occurs. A total of 585 undergraduate students completed an online survey on alcohol use in March 2006. Participants reported personal alcohol use and perceptions of use by "friends," "the average student," and "the average student who drinks." Due to the large number of students reporting zero alcohol use, zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to analyze the data. Results showed that perceptions of use and beliefs about the acceptability of use by proximal groups were strongly and positively correlated with personal alcohol use. Perceptions of distal groups were either not correlated or were correlated negatively with personal use. These findings suggest that the use of distal referent groups for a social norms campaign in a low-use environment may have paradoxical effects.

Coupled Brownian motors: Anomalous hysteresis and zero-bias negative conductance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, P.; Kawai, R.; Van den Broeck, C.; Hänggi, P.

1999-03-01

We introduce a model of interacting Brownian particles in a symmetric, periodic potential that undergoes a noise-induced non-equilibrium phase transition. The associated spontaneous symmetry breaking entails a ratchet-like transport mechanism. In response to an external force we identify several novel features; among the most prominent being a zero-bias negative conductance and a prima facie counterintuitive, anomalous hysteresis.

Binomial test statistics using Psi functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o

2007-01-01

For the negative binomial model (probability generating function (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}) a logarithmic derivative is the Psi function difference {psi}(k + x) - {psi}(k); this and its derivatives lead to a test statistic to decide on the validity of a specified model. The test statistic uses a data base so there exists a comparison available between theory and application. Note that the test function is not dominated by outliers. Applications to (i) Fisher's tick data, (ii) accidents data, (iii) Weldon's dice data are included.

No-scale inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, John; Garcia, Marcos A. G.; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Olive, Keith A.

2016-05-01

Supersymmetry is the most natural framework for physics above the TeV scale, and the corresponding framework for early-Universe cosmology, including inflation, is supergravity. No-scale supergravity emerges from generic string compactifications and yields a non-negative potential, and is therefore a plausible framework for constructing models of inflation. No-scale inflation yields naturally predictions similar to those of the Starobinsky model based on R+{R}2 gravity, with a tilted spectrum of scalar perturbations: {n}s∼ 0.96, and small values of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio r\\lt 0.1, as favoured by Planck and other data on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Detailed measurements of the CMB may provide insights into the embedding of inflation within string theory as well as its links to collider physics.

Binomial Baseball.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Eugene M.

1981-01-01

Student access to programmable calculators and computer terminals, coupled with a familiarity with baseball, provides opportunities to enhance their understanding of the binomial distribution and other aspects of analysis. (MP)

A quantile count model of water depth constraints on Cape Sable seaside sparrows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Dong, Q.

2008-01-01

1. A quantile regression model for counts of breeding Cape Sable seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis (L.) as a function of water depth and previous year abundance was developed based on extensive surveys, 1992-2005, in the Florida Everglades. The quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, providing a flexible alternative to discrete parametric distributional models, e.g. Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts. 2. Estimates from our multiplicative model demonstrated that negative effects of increasing water depth in breeding habitat on sparrow numbers were dependent on recent occupation history. Upper 10th percentiles of counts (one to three sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth from 0 to 30 cm when sites were not occupied in previous years. However, upper 40th percentiles of counts (one to six sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth for sites occupied in previous years. 3. Greatest decreases (-50% to -83%) in upper quantiles of sparrow counts occurred as water depths increased from 0 to 15 cm when previous year counts were 1, but a small proportion of sites (5-10%) held at least one sparrow even as water depths increased to 20 or 30 cm. 4. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model provided estimates of conditional means that also decreased with increasing water depth but rates of change were lower and decreased with increasing previous year counts compared to the quantile count model. Quantiles computed for the zero-inflated Poisson model enhanced interpretation of this model but had greater lack-of-fit for water depths > 0 cm and previous year counts 1, conditions where the negative effect of water depths were readily apparent and fitted better with the quantile count model.

Horizon feedback inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fairbairn, Malcolm; Markkanen, Tommi; Rodriguez Roman, David

2018-04-01

We consider the effect of the Gibbons-Hawking radiation on the inflaton in the situation where it is coupled to a large number of spectator fields. We argue that this will lead to two important effects - a thermal contribution to the potential and a gradual change in parameters in the Lagrangian which results from thermodynamic and energy conservation arguments. We present a scenario of hilltop inflation where the field starts trapped at the origin before slowly experiencing a phase transition during which the field extremely slowly moves towards its zero temperature expectation value. We show that it is possible to obtain enough e-folds of expansion as well as the correct spectrum of perturbations without hugely fine-tuned parameters in the potential (albeit with many spectator fields). We also comment on how initial conditions for inflation can arise naturally in this situation.

Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior

PubMed Central

González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S.

2016-01-01

We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation. PMID:27047418

Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior.

PubMed

González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S

2016-01-01

We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.

Genericness of inflation in isotropic loop quantum cosmology.

PubMed

Date, Ghanashyam; Hossain, Golam Mortuza

2005-01-14

Nonperturbative corrections from loop quantum cosmology (LQC) to the scalar matter sector are already known to imply inflation. We prove that the LQC modified scalar field generates exponential inflation in the small scale factor regime, for all positive definite potentials, independent of initial conditions and independent of ambiguity parameters. For positive semidefinite potentials it is always possible to choose, without fine-tuning, a value of one of the ambiguity parameters such that exponential inflation results, provided zeros of the potential are approached at most as a power law in the scale factor. In conjunction with the generic occurrence of bounce at small volumes, particle horizon is absent, thus eliminating the horizon problem of the standard big bang model.

Coronary artery calcium distributions in older persons in the AGES-Reykjavik study

PubMed Central

Gudmundsson, Elias Freyr; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur; Launer, Lenore J.; Harris, Tamara B.; Aspelund, Thor

2013-01-01

Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) is a sign of advanced atherosclerosis and an independent risk factor for cardiac events. Here, we describe CAC-distributions in an unselected aged population and compare modelling methods to characterize CAC-distribution. CAC is difficult to model because it has a skewed and zero inflated distribution with over-dispersion. Data are from the AGES-Reykjavik sample, a large population based study [2002-2006] in Iceland of 5,764 persons aged 66-96 years. Linear regressions using logarithmic- and Box-Cox transformations on CAC+1, quantile regression and a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZINB) were applied. Methods were compared visually and with the PRESS-statistic, R2 and number of detected associations with concurrently measured variables. There were pronounced differences in CAC according to sex, age, history of coronary events and presence of plaque in the carotid artery. Associations with conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors varied between the sexes. The ZINB model provided the best results with respect to the PRESS-statistic, R2, and predicted proportion of zero scores. The ZINB model detected similar numbers of associations as the linear regression on ln(CAC+1) and usually with the same risk factors. PMID:22990371

Three-part joint modeling methods for complex functional data mixed with zero-and-one-inflated proportions and zero-inflated continuous outcomes with skewness.

PubMed

Li, Haocheng; Staudenmayer, John; Wang, Tianying; Keadle, Sarah Kozey; Carroll, Raymond J

2018-02-20

We take a functional data approach to longitudinal studies with complex bivariate outcomes. This work is motivated by data from a physical activity study that measured 2 responses over time in 5-minute intervals. One response is the proportion of time active in each interval, a continuous proportions with excess zeros and ones. The other response, energy expenditure rate in the interval, is a continuous variable with excess zeros and skewness. This outcome is complex because there are 3 possible activity patterns in each interval (inactive, partially active, and completely active), and those patterns, which are observed, induce both nonrandom and random associations between the responses. More specifically, the inactive pattern requires a zero value in both the proportion for active behavior and the energy expenditure rate; a partially active pattern means that the proportion of activity is strictly between zero and one and that the energy expenditure rate is greater than zero and likely to be moderate, and the completely active pattern means that the proportion of activity is exactly one, and the energy expenditure rate is greater than zero and likely to be higher. To address these challenges, we propose a 3-part functional data joint modeling approach. The first part is a continuation-ratio model to reorder the ordinal valued 3 activity patterns. The second part models the proportions when they are in interval (0,1). The last component specifies the skewed continuous energy expenditure rate with Box-Cox transformations when they are greater than zero. In this 3-part model, the regression structures are specified as smooth curves measured at various time points with random effects that have a correlation structure. The smoothed random curves for each variable are summarized using a few important principal components, and the association of the 3 longitudinal components is modeled through the association of the principal component scores. The difficulties in

Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

PubMed

Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

2016-05-01

Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A big data approach to the development of mixed-effects models for seizure count data.

PubMed

Tharayil, Joseph J; Chiang, Sharon; Moss, Robert; Stern, John M; Theodore, William H; Goldenholz, Daniel M

2017-05-01

Our objective was to develop a generalized linear mixed model for predicting seizure count that is useful in the design and analysis of clinical trials. This model also may benefit the design and interpretation of seizure-recording paradigms. Most existing seizure count models do not include children, and there is currently no consensus regarding the most suitable model that can be applied to children and adults. Therefore, an additional objective was to develop a model that accounts for both adult and pediatric epilepsy. Using data from SeizureTracker.com, a patient-reported seizure diary tool with >1.2 million recorded seizures across 8 years, we evaluated the appropriateness of Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, and modified negative binomial models for seizure count data based on minimization of the Bayesian information criterion. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to account for demographic and etiologic covariates and for autocorrelation structure. Holdout cross-validation was used to evaluate predictive accuracy in simulating seizure frequencies. For both adults and children, we found that a negative binomial model with autocorrelation over 1 day was optimal. Using holdout cross-validation, the proposed model was found to provide accurate simulation of seizure counts for patients with up to four seizures per day. The optimal model can be used to generate more realistic simulated patient data with very few input parameters. The availability of a parsimonious, realistic virtual patient model can be of great utility in simulations of phase II/III clinical trials, epilepsy monitoring units, outpatient biosensors, and mobile Health (mHealth) applications. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

Zero-Inflated Models for Identifying Relationships Between Body Mass Index and Gastroesophageal Reflux Symptoms: A Nationwide Population-Based Study in China.

PubMed

Xu, Qin; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Tianyi; Zhang, Ruijie; Zhao, Yanfang; Zhang, Yuan; Guo, Yibin; Wang, Rui; Ma, Xiuqiang; He, Jia

2016-07-01

That obesity leads to gastroesophageal reflux is a widespread notion. However, scientific evidence for this association is limited, with no rigorous epidemiological approach conducted to address this question. This study examined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms in a large population-representative sample from China. We performed a cross-sectional study in an age- and gender-stratified random sample of the population of five central regions in China. Participants aged 18-80 years completed a general information questionnaire and a Chinese version of the Reflux Disease Questionnaire. The zero-inflated Poisson regression model estimated the relationship between body mass index and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Overall, 16,091 (89.4 %) of the 18,000 eligible participants responded. 638 (3.97 %) and 1738 (10.81 %) experienced at least weekly heartburn and weekly acid regurgitation, respectively. After adjusting for potential risk factors in the zero-inflated part, the frequency [odds ratio (OR) 0.66, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 0.50-0.86, p = 0.002] and severity (OR 0.66, 95 % CI 0.50-088, p = 0.004) of heartburn in obese participants were statistically significant compared to those in normal participants. In the Poisson part, the frequency of acid regurgitation, overweight (OR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.01-1.21, p = 0.038) and obesity (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.04-1.37, p = 0.013) were statistically significant. BMI was strongly and positively related to the frequency and severity of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Additionally, gender exerted strong specific effects on the relationship between BMI and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. The severity and frequency of heartburn were positively correlated with obesity. This relationship was presented distinct in male participants only.

Factors associated with the frequency of monitoring of liver enzymes, renal function and lipid laboratory markers among individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy: a cohort study.

PubMed

Gillis, Jennifer; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Burchell, Ann N; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina B; Loutfy, Mona; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio Sg; Tsoukas, Chris; Hogg, Robert S; Raboud, Janet

2015-10-26

As the average age of the HIV-positive population increases, there is increasing need to monitor patients for the development of comorbidities as well as for drug toxicities. We examined factors associated with the frequency of measurement of liver enzymes, renal function tests, and lipid levels among participants of the Canadian Observational Cohort (CANOC) collaboration which follows people who initiated HIV antiretroviral therapy in 2000 or later. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine the associations of demographic and clinical characteristics with the rates of measurement during follow-up. Generalized estimating equations with a logit link were used to examine factors associated with gaps of 12 months or more between measurements. Electronic laboratory data were available for 3940 of 7718 CANOC participants. The median duration of electronic follow-up was 3.5 years. The median (interquartile) rates of tests per year were 2.76 (1.60, 3.73), 2.55 (1.44, 3.38) and 1.42 (0.50, 2.52) for liver, renal and lipid parameters, respectively. In multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, individuals infected through injection drug use (IDU) were significantly less likely to have any measurements. Among participants with at least one measurement, rates of measurement of liver, renal and lipid tests were significantly lower for younger individuals and Aboriginal Peoples. Hepatitis C co-infected individuals with a history of IDU had lower rates of measurement and were at greater risk of having 12 month gaps between measurements. Hepatitis C co-infected participants infected through IDU were at increased risk of gaps in testing, despite publicly funded health care and increased risk of comorbid conditions. This should be taken into consideration in analyses examining factors associated with outcomes based on laboratory parameters.

Density of wild prey modulates lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep.

PubMed

Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B; Linnell, John D C

2013-01-01

Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore-livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed.

Density of Wild Prey Modulates Lynx Kill Rates on Free-Ranging Domestic Sheep

PubMed Central

Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B.; Linnell, John D. C.

2013-01-01

Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore–livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed. PMID:24278123

Single-vehicle crashes along rural mountainous highways in Malaysia: An application of random parameters negative binomial model.

PubMed

Rusli, Rusdi; Haque, Md Mazharul; King, Mark; Voon, Wong Shaw

2017-05-01

Mountainous highways generally associate with complex driving environment because of constrained road geometries, limited cross-section elements, inappropriate roadside features, and adverse weather conditions. As a result, single-vehicle (SV) crashes are overrepresented along mountainous roads, particularly in developing countries, but little attention is known about the roadway geometric, traffic and weather factors contributing to these SV crashes. As such, the main objective of the present study is to investigate SV crashes using detailed data obtained from a rigorous site survey and existing databases. The final dataset included a total of 56 variables representing road geometries including horizontal and vertical alignment, traffic characteristics, real-time weather condition, cross-sectional elements, roadside features, and spatial characteristics. To account for structured heterogeneities resulting from multiple observations within a site and other unobserved heterogeneities, the study applied a random parameters negative binomial model. Results suggest that rainfall during the crash is positively associated with SV crashes, but real-time visibility is negatively associated. The presence of a road shoulder, particularly a bitumen shoulder or wider shoulders, along mountainous highways is associated with less SV crashes. While speeding along downgrade slopes increases the likelihood of SV crashes, proper delineation decreases the likelihood. Findings of this study have significant implications for designing safer highways in mountainous areas, particularly in the context of a developing country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Goodness-of-fit tests and model diagnostics for negative binomial regression of RNA sequencing data.

PubMed

Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W

2015-01-01

This work is about assessing model adequacy for negative binomial (NB) regression, particularly (1) assessing the adequacy of the NB assumption, and (2) assessing the appropriateness of models for NB dispersion parameters. Tools for the first are appropriate for NB regression generally; those for the second are primarily intended for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data analysis. The typically small number of biological samples and large number of genes in RNA-Seq analysis motivate us to address the trade-offs between robustness and statistical power using NB regression models. One widely-used power-saving strategy, for example, is to assume some commonalities of NB dispersion parameters across genes via simple models relating them to mean expression rates, and many such models have been proposed. As RNA-Seq analysis is becoming ever more popular, it is appropriate to make more thorough investigations into power and robustness of the resulting methods, and into practical tools for model assessment. In this article, we propose simulation-based statistical tests and diagnostic graphics to address model adequacy. We provide simulated and real data examples to illustrate that our proposed methods are effective for detecting the misspecification of the NB mean-variance relationship as well as judging the adequacy of fit of several NB dispersion models.

Zero-inflated modeling of fish catch per unit area resulting from multiple gears: Application to channel catfish and shovelnose sturgeon in the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arab, A.; Wildhaber, M.L.; Wikle, C.K.; Gentry, C.N.

2008-01-01

Fisheries studies often employ multiple gears that result in large percentages of zero values. We considered a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model with random effects to address these excessive zeros. By employing a Bayesian ZIP model that simultaneously incorporates data from multiple gears to analyze data from the Missouri River, we were able to compare gears and make more year, segment, and macrohabitat comparisons than did the original data analysis. For channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus, our results rank (highest to lowest) the mean catch per unit area (CPUA) for gears (beach seine, benthic trawl, electrofishing, and drifting trammel net); years (1998 and 1997); macrohabitats (tributary mouth, connected secondary channel, nonconnected secondary channel, and bend); and river segment zones (channelized, inter-reservoir, and least-altered). For shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, the mean CPUA was significantly higher for benthic trawls and drifting trammel nets; 1998 and 1997; tributary mouths, bends, and connected secondary channels; and some channelized or least-altered inter-reservoir segments. One important advantage of our approach is the ability to reliably infer patterns of relative abundance by means of multiple gears without using gear efficiencies. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Mutated hilltop inflation revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Barun Kumar

2018-05-01

In this work we re-investigate pros and cons of mutated hilltop inflation. Applying Hamilton-Jacobi formalism we solve inflationary dynamics and find that inflation goes on along the {W}_{-1} branch of the Lambert function. Depending on the model parameter mutated hilltop model renders two types of inflationary solutions: one corresponds to small inflaton excursion during observable inflation and the other describes large field inflation. The inflationary observables from curvature perturbation are in tune with the current data for a wide range of the model parameter. The small field branch predicts negligible amount of tensor to scalar ratio r˜ O(10^{-4}), while the large field sector is capable of generating high amplitude for tensor perturbations, r˜ O(10^{-1}). Also, the spectral index is almost independent of the model parameter along with a very small negative amount of scalar running. Finally we find that the mutated hilltop inflation closely resembles the α -attractor class of inflationary models in the limit of α φ ≫ 1.

Topological inflation with graceful exit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav, E-mail: a.marunovic@uu.nl, E-mail: t.prokopec@uu.nl

We investigate a class of models of topological inflation in which a super-Hubble-sized global monopole seeds inflation. These models are attractive since inflation starts from rather generic initial conditions, but their not so attractive feature is that, unless symmetry is again restored, inflation never ends. In this work we show that, in presence of another nonminimally coupled scalar field, that is both quadratically and quartically coupled to the Ricci scalar, inflation naturally ends, representing an elegant solution to the graceful exit problem of topological inflation. While the monopole core grows during inflation, the growth stops after inflation, such that themore » monopole eventually enters the Hubble radius, and shrinks to its Minkowski space size, rendering it immaterial for the subsequent Universe's dynamics. Furthermore, we find that our model can produce cosmological perturbations that source CMB temperature fluctuations and seed large scale structure statistically consistent (within one standard deviation) with all available data. In particular, for small and (in our convention) negative nonminimal couplings, the scalar spectral index can be as large as n {sub s} ≅ 0.955, which is about one standard deviation lower than the central value quoted by the most recent Planck Collaboration.« less

Application of a hurdle negative binomial count data model to demand for bass fishing in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Florkowski, Wojciech J

2007-06-01

This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a bass fishing trip taken in the southeastern United States using a hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a bass is estimated in the first stage and the fishing trip frequency is estimated in the second stage for individuals reporting bass fishing trips in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision to take a trip and the trip number. Calculated partial and total elasticities indicate a highly inelastic demand for the number of fishing trips as trip costs increase. However, the demand can be expected to increase if anglers experience a success measured by the number of caught fish or their size. Benefit estimates based on alternative estimation methods differ substantially, suggesting the need for testing each modeling approach applied in empirical studies.

Problems on Divisibility of Binomial Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osler, Thomas J.; Smoak, James

2004-01-01

Twelve unusual problems involving divisibility of the binomial coefficients are represented in this article. The problems are listed in "The Problems" section. All twelve problems have short solutions which are listed in "The Solutions" section. These problems could be assigned to students in any course in which the binomial theorem and Pascal's…

A picture for the coupling of unemployment and inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safdari, H.; Hosseiny, A.; Vasheghani Farahani, S.; Jafari, G. R.

2016-02-01

The aim of this article is to illustrate the scaling features of two well heard characters in the media; unemployment and inflation. We carry out a scaling analysis on the coupling between unemployment and inflation. This work is based on the wavelet analysis as well as the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Through our analysis we state that while unemployment is time scale invariant, inflation is bi-scale. We show that inflation possess a five year time scale where it experiences different behaviours before and after this scale period. This behaviour of inflation provides basis for the coupling to inherit the stated time interval. Although inflation is bi-scale, it is unemployment that shows a strong multifractality feature. Owing to the cross wavelet analysis we provide a picture that illustrates the dynamics of coupling between unemployment and inflation regarding intensity, direction, and scale. The fact of the matter is that the coupling between inflation and unemployment is not equal in one way compared to the opposite. Regarding the scaling; coupling exhibits different features in various scales. In a sense that although in one scale its correlation behaves in a positive/negative manner, at the same time it can be negative/positive for another scale.

A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A

2015-01-01

Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels), I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data

Switchable zero-index metamaterials by loading positive-intrinsic-negative diodes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, Nan; Cheng, Qiang, E-mail: qiangcheng@emfield.org; Zhao, Jie

2014-02-03

We propose switchable zero-index metamaterials (ZIMs) implemented by split ring resonators (SRRs) loaded with positive-intrinsic-negative (PIN) diode switching elements. We demonstrate that ZIMs can be achieved at around 10 GHz when the PIN diode is switched off. When the PIN diode is switched on, however, the designed metamaterials have impedance matching to the free space, which is useful to reduce the reflections at the interface of two media. The switchable ZIMs are suitable for a wide variety of applications like the beam forming and directive radiation. Experimental results validate the switching ability of the proposed ZIMs.

46 CFR 131.580 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and inflated rescue boats. 131.580 Section 131.580 Shipping COAST... Inspections § 131.580 Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant apparatus must be serviced...

46 CFR 131.580 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and inflated rescue boats. 131.580 Section 131.580 Shipping COAST... Inspections § 131.580 Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant apparatus must be serviced...

Universality of the Volume Bound in Slow-Roll Eternal Inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubovsky, Sergei; Senatore, Leonardo; Villadoro, Giovanni

2012-03-28

It has recently been shown that in single field slow-roll inflation the total volume cannot grow by a factor larger than e{sup S{sub dS}/2} without becoming infinite. The bound is saturated exactly at the phase transition to eternal inflation where the probability to produce infinite volume becomes non zero. We show that the bound holds sharply also in any space-time dimensions, when arbitrary higher-dimensional operators are included and in the multi-field inflationary case. The relation with the entropy of de Sitter and the universality of the bound strengthen the case for a deeper holographic interpretation. As a spin-off we providemore » the formalism to compute the probability distribution of the volume after inflation for generic multi-field models, which might help to address questions about the population of vacua of the landscape during slow-roll inflation.« less

A comparison between Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson regression models with an application to number of black spots in Corriedale sheep

PubMed Central

Naya, Hugo; Urioste, Jorge I; Chang, Yu-Mei; Rodrigues-Motta, Mariana; Kremer, Roberto; Gianola, Daniel

2008-01-01

Dark spots in the fleece area are often associated with dark fibres in wool, which limits its competitiveness with other textile fibres. Field data from a sheep experiment in Uruguay revealed an excess number of zeros for dark spots. We compared the performance of four Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models under four simulation scenarios. All models performed reasonably well under the same scenario for which the data were simulated. The deviance information criterion favoured a Poisson model with residual, while the ZIP model with a residual gave estimates closer to their true values under all simulation scenarios. Both Poisson and ZIP models with an error term at the regression level performed better than their counterparts without such an error. Field data from Corriedale sheep were analysed with Poisson and ZIP models with residuals. Parameter estimates were similar for both models. Although the posterior distribution of the sire variance was skewed due to a small number of rams in the dataset, the median of this variance suggested a scope for genetic selection. The main environmental factor was the age of the sheep at shearing. In summary, age related processes seem to drive the number of dark spots in this breed of sheep. PMID:18558072

Cumulative sum control charts for monitoring geometrically inflated Poisson processes: An application to infectious disease counts data.

PubMed

Rakitzis, Athanasios C; Castagliola, Philippe; Maravelakis, Petros E

2018-02-01

In this work, we study upper-sided cumulative sum control charts that are suitable for monitoring geometrically inflated Poisson processes. We assume that a process is properly described by a two-parameter extension of the zero-inflated Poisson distribution, which can be used for modeling count data with an excessive number of zero and non-zero values. Two different upper-sided cumulative sum-type schemes are considered, both suitable for the detection of increasing shifts in the average of the process. Aspects of their statistical design are discussed and their performance is compared under various out-of-control situations. Changes in both parameters of the process are considered. Finally, the monitoring of the monthly cases of poliomyelitis in the USA is given as an illustrative example.

Application of binomial-edited CPMG to shale characterization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Washburn, Kathryn E.; Birdwell, Justin E.

2014-01-01

Unconventional shale resources may contain a significant amount of hydrogen in organic solids such as kerogen, but it is not possible to directly detect these solids with many NMR systems. Binomial-edited pulse sequences capitalize on magnetization transfer between solids, semi-solids, and liquids to provide an indirect method of detecting solid organic materials in shales. When the organic solids can be directly measured, binomial-editing helps distinguish between different phases. We applied a binomial-edited CPMG pulse sequence to a range of natural and experimentally-altered shale samples. The most substantial signal loss is seen in shales rich in organic solids while fluids associated with inorganic pores seem essentially unaffected. This suggests that binomial-editing is a potential method for determining fluid locations, solid organic content, and kerogen–bitumen discrimination.

46 CFR 131.580 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and inflated rescue boats. 131.580 Section 131.580 Shipping COAST..., and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant apparatus must be serviced... maintenance of inflatable rescue boats must follow the manufacturers' instructions. Each repair, except an...

46 CFR 131.580 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and inflated rescue boats. 131.580 Section 131.580 Shipping COAST..., and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant apparatus must be serviced... maintenance of inflatable rescue boats must follow the manufacturers' instructions. Each repair, except an...

46 CFR 131.580 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... lifejackets, inflatable buoyant apparatus, and inflated rescue boats. 131.580 Section 131.580 Shipping COAST..., and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant apparatus must be serviced... maintenance of inflatable rescue boats must follow the manufacturers' instructions. Each repair, except an...

46 CFR 122.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 122.730 Section 122.730 Shipping COAST GUARD..., inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant... other standard specified by the Commandant. (e) Repair and maintenance of inflated rescue boats must be...

46 CFR 122.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 122.730 Section 122.730 Shipping COAST GUARD..., inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant... other standard specified by the Commandant. (e) Repair and maintenance of inflated rescue boats must be...

46 CFR 122.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 122.730 Section 122.730 Shipping COAST GUARD..., inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant... other standard specified by the Commandant. (e) Repair and maintenance of inflated rescue boats must be...

Robust inference in the negative binomial regression model with an application to falls data.

PubMed

Aeberhard, William H; Cantoni, Eva; Heritier, Stephane

2014-12-01

A popular way to model overdispersed count data, such as the number of falls reported during intervention studies, is by means of the negative binomial (NB) distribution. Classical estimating methods are well-known to be sensitive to model misspecifications, taking the form of patients falling much more than expected in such intervention studies where the NB regression model is used. We extend in this article two approaches for building robust M-estimators of the regression parameters in the class of generalized linear models to the NB distribution. The first approach achieves robustness in the response by applying a bounded function on the Pearson residuals arising in the maximum likelihood estimating equations, while the second approach achieves robustness by bounding the unscaled deviance components. For both approaches, we explore different choices for the bounding functions. Through a unified notation, we show how close these approaches may actually be as long as the bounding functions are chosen and tuned appropriately, and provide the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. Moreover, we introduce a robust weighted maximum likelihood estimator for the overdispersion parameter, specific to the NB distribution. Simulations under various settings show that redescending bounding functions yield estimates with smaller biases under contamination while keeping high efficiency at the assumed model, and this for both approaches. We present an application to a recent randomized controlled trial measuring the effectiveness of an exercise program at reducing the number of falls among people suffering from Parkinsons disease to illustrate the diagnostic use of such robust procedures and their need for reliable inference. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Inflatable Re-Entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) Design Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, Stephen J.; Dillman, Robert A.; Starr, Brett R.; Stephan, Ryan A.; Lindell, Michael C.; Player, Charles J.; Cheatwood, F. McNeil

2005-01-01

integrity when exposed to a relevant dynamic pressure and aerodynamic stability of the inflatable system. Structural integrity and structural response of the inflatable will be verified with photogrammetric measurements of the back side of the aeroshell in flight. Aerodynamic stability as well as drag performance will be verified with on board inertial measurements and radar tracking from multiple ground radar stations. The experiment will yield valuable information about zero-g vacuum deployment dynamics of the flexible inflatable structure with both inertial and photographic measurements. In addition to demonstrating inflatable technology, IRVE will validate structural, aerothermal, and trajectory modeling techniques for the inflatable. Structural response determined from photogrammetrics will validate structural models, skin temperature measurements and additional in-depth temperature measurements will validate material thermal performance models, and on board inertial measurements along with radar tracking from multiple ground radar stations will validate trajectory simulation models.

46 CFR 185.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 185.730 Section 185.730 Shipping COAST GUARD... liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An... inflated rescue boats must be in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions. All repairs must be made...

46 CFR 185.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 185.730 Section 185.730 Shipping COAST GUARD... liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An... inflated rescue boats must be in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions. All repairs must be made...

46 CFR 185.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 185.730 Section 185.730 Shipping COAST GUARD... liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. (a) An... inflated rescue boats must be in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions. All repairs must be made...

Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

PubMed

Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

2014-03-01

To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of health intervention programs and arsenic exposure on child mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Jochem, Warren C; Razzaque, Abdur; Root, Elisabeth Dowling

2016-09-01

Respiratory infections continue to be a public health threat, particularly to young children in developing countries. Understanding the geographic patterns of diseases and the role of potential risk factors can help improve future mitigation efforts. Toward this goal, this paper applies a spatial scan statistic combined with a zero-inflated negative-binomial regression to re-examine the impacts of a community-based treatment program on the geographic patterns of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) mortality in an area of rural Bangladesh. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water is also a serious threat to the health of children in this area, and the variation in exposure to arsenic must be considered when evaluating the health interventions. ALRI mortality data were obtained for children under 2 years old from 1989 to 1996 in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System. This study period covers the years immediately following the implementation of an ALRI control program. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was first used to simultaneously estimate mortality rates and the likelihood of no deaths in groups of related households while controlling for socioeconomic status, potential arsenic exposure, and access to care. Next a spatial scan statistic was used to assess the location and magnitude of clusters of ALRI mortality. The ZINB model was used to adjust the scan statistic for multiple social and environmental risk factors. The results of the ZINB models and spatial scan statistic suggest that the ALRI control program was successful in reducing child mortality in the study area. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water was not associated with increased mortality. Higher socioeconomic status also significantly reduced mortality rates, even among households who were in the treatment program area. Community-based ALRI interventions can be effective at reducing child mortality, though socioeconomic factors may

Statistical inference for time course RNA-Seq data using a negative binomial mixed-effect model.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoxiao; Dalpiaz, David; Wu, Di; S Liu, Jun; Zhong, Wenxuan; Ma, Ping

2016-08-26

Accurate identification of differentially expressed (DE) genes in time course RNA-Seq data is crucial for understanding the dynamics of transcriptional regulatory network. However, most of the available methods treat gene expressions at different time points as replicates and test the significance of the mean expression difference between treatments or conditions irrespective of time. They thus fail to identify many DE genes with different profiles across time. In this article, we propose a negative binomial mixed-effect model (NBMM) to identify DE genes in time course RNA-Seq data. In the NBMM, mean gene expression is characterized by a fixed effect, and time dependency is described by random effects. The NBMM is very flexible and can be fitted to both unreplicated and replicated time course RNA-Seq data via a penalized likelihood method. By comparing gene expression profiles over time, we further classify the DE genes into two subtypes to enhance the understanding of expression dynamics. A significance test for detecting DE genes is derived using a Kullback-Leibler distance ratio. Additionally, a significance test for gene sets is developed using a gene set score. Simulation analysis shows that the NBMM outperforms currently available methods for detecting DE genes and gene sets. Moreover, our real data analysis of fruit fly developmental time course RNA-Seq data demonstrates the NBMM identifies biologically relevant genes which are well justified by gene ontology analysis. The proposed method is powerful and efficient to detect biologically relevant DE genes and gene sets in time course RNA-Seq data.

The Observational Status of Cosmic Inflation After Planck

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Jérôme

The observational status of inflation after the Planck 2013 and 2015 results and the BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck joint analysis is discussed. These pedagogical lecture notes are intended to serve as a technical guide filling the gap between the theoretical articles on inflation and the experimental works on astrophysical and cosmological data. After a short discussion of the central tenets at the basis of inflation (negative self-gravitating pressure) and its experimental verifications, it reviews how the most recent Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy measurements constrain cosmic inflation. The fact that vanilla inflationary models are, so far, preferred by the observations is discussed and the reason why plateau-like potential versions of inflation are favored within this subclass of scenarios is explained. Finally, how well the future measurements, in particular of B-Mode CMB polarization or primordial gravity waves, will help to improve our knowledge about inflation is also investigated.

Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musenge, Eustasius; Chirwa, Tobias Freeman; Kahn, Kathleen; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-06-01

Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992-2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.

Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults.

PubMed

Conroy, David E; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L; Rebar, Amanda L

Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development.

Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults

PubMed Central

Conroy, David E.; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L.; Rebar, Amanda L.

2015-01-01

Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development. PMID:25859164

Spacetime Curvature and Higgs Stability after Inflation.

PubMed

Herranen, M; Markkanen, T; Nurmi, S; Rajantie, A

2015-12-11

We investigate the dynamics of the Higgs field at the end of inflation in the minimal scenario consisting of an inflaton field coupled to the standard model only through the nonminimal gravitational coupling ξ of the Higgs field. Such a coupling is required by renormalization of the standard model in curved space, and in the current scenario also by vacuum stability during high-scale inflation. We find that for ξ≳1, rapidly changing spacetime curvature at the end of inflation leads to significant production of Higgs particles, potentially triggering a transition to a negative-energy Planck scale vacuum state and causing an immediate collapse of the Universe.

Spacetime dynamics of a Higgs vacuum instability during inflation

DOE PAGES

East, William E.; Kearney, John; Shakya, Bibhushan; ...

2017-01-31

A remarkable prediction of the Standard Model is that, in the absence of corrections lifting the energy density, the Higgs potential becomes negative at large field values. If the Higgs field samples this part of the potential during inflation, the negative energy density may locally destabilize the spacetime. Here, we use numerical simulations of the Einstein equations to study the evolution of inflation-induced Higgs fluctuations as they grow towards the true (negative-energy) minimum. Our simulations show that forming a single patch of true vacuum in our past light cone during inflation is incompatible with the existence of our Universe; themore » boundary of the true vacuum region grows outward in a causally disconnected manner from the crunching interior, which forms a black hole. We also find that these black hole horizons may be arbitrarily elongated—even forming black strings—in violation of the hoop conjecture. Furthermore, by extending the numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation to the exponentially suppressed tails of the field distribution at large field values, we derive a rigorous correlation between a future measurement of the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the scale at which the Higgs potential must receive stabilizing corrections in order for the Universe to have survived inflation until today.« less

46 CFR 185.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant apparatus must be serviced at a facility specifically approved by... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 185.730 Section 185.730 Shipping COAST GUARD... Operational Readiness, Maintenance, and Inspection of Lifesaving Equipment § 185.730 Servicing of inflatable...

46 CFR 185.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant apparatus must be serviced at a facility specifically approved by... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 185.730 Section 185.730 Shipping COAST GUARD... Operational Readiness, Maintenance, and Inspection of Lifesaving Equipment § 185.730 Servicing of inflatable...

Inhomogeneous initial data and small-field inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, M. C. David; Barrow, John D.; Ganguly, Chandrima

2018-05-01

We consider the robustness of small-field inflation in the presence of scalar field inhomogeneities. Previous numerical work has shown that if the scalar potential is flat only over a narrow interval, such as in commonly considered inflection-point models, even small-amplitude inhomogeneities present at the would-be onset of inflation at τ = τi can disrupt the accelerated expansion. In this paper, we parametrise and evolve the inhomogeneities from an earlier time τIC at which the initial data were imprinted, and show that for a broad range of inflationary and pre-inflationary models, inflection-point inflation withstands initial inhomogeneities. We consider three classes of perturbative pre-inflationary solutions (corresponding to energetic domination by the scalar field kinetic term, a relativistic fluid, and isotropic negative curvature), and two classes of exact solutions to Einstein's equations with large inhomogeneities (corresponding to a stiff fluid with cylindrical symmetry, and anisotropic negative curvature). We derive a stability condition that depends on the Hubble scales H(τi) and H(τIC), and a few properties of the pre-inflationary cosmology. For initial data imprinted at the Planck scale, the absence of an inhomogeneous initial data problem for inflection-point inflation leads to a novel, lower limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

Inflation with a constant rate of roll

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motohashi, Hayato; Starobinsky, Alexei A.; Yokoyama, Jun'ichi

2015-09-01

We consider an inflationary scenario where the rate of inflaton roll defined by ̈phi/H dot phi remains constant. The rate of roll is small for slow-roll inflation, while a generic rate of roll leads to the interesting case of 'constant-roll' inflation. We find a general exact solution for the inflaton potential required for such inflaton behaviour. In this model, due to non-slow evolution of background, the would-be decaying mode of linear scalar (curvature) perturbations may not be neglected. It can even grow for some values of the model parameter, while the other mode always remains constant. However, this always occurs for unstable solutions which are not attractors for the given potential. The most interesting particular cases of constant-roll inflation remaining viable with the most recent observational data are quadratic hilltop inflation (with cutoff) and natural inflation (with an additional negative cosmological constant). In these cases even-order slow-roll parameters approach non-negligible constants while the odd ones are asymptotically vanishing in the quasi-de Sitter regime.

Inflation with a constant rate of roll

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motohashi, Hayato; Starobinsky, Alexei A.; Yokoyama, Jun'ichi, E-mail: motohashi@kicp.uchicago.edu, E-mail: alstar@landau.ac.ru, E-mail: yokoyama@resceu.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp

2015-09-01

We consider an inflationary scenario where the rate of inflaton roll defined by {sup ··}φ/H φ-dot remains constant. The rate of roll is small for slow-roll inflation, while a generic rate of roll leads to the interesting case of 'constant-roll' inflation. We find a general exact solution for the inflaton potential required for such inflaton behaviour. In this model, due to non-slow evolution of background, the would-be decaying mode of linear scalar (curvature) perturbations may not be neglected. It can even grow for some values of the model parameter, while the other mode always remains constant. However, this always occurs formore » unstable solutions which are not attractors for the given potential. The most interesting particular cases of constant-roll inflation remaining viable with the most recent observational data are quadratic hilltop inflation (with cutoff) and natural inflation (with an additional negative cosmological constant). In these cases even-order slow-roll parameters approach non-negligible constants while the odd ones are asymptotically vanishing in the quasi-de Sitter regime.« less

Bispectrum from open inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimura, Kazuyuki; Komatsu, Eiichiro

2013-11-01

We calculate the bispectrum of primordial curvature perturbations, ζ, generated during ``open inflation.'' Inflation occurs inside a bubble nucleated via quantum tunneling from the background false vacuum state. Our universe lives inside the bubble, which can be described as a Friedmann-Lemaȋtre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) universe with negative spatial curvature, undergoing slow-roll inflation. We pay special attention to the issue of an initial state for quantum fluctuations. A ``vacuum state'' defined by a positive-frequency mode in de Sitter space charted by open coordinates is different from the Euclidean vacuum (which is equivalent to the so-called ``Bunch-Davies vacuum'' defined by a positive-frequency mode in de Sitter space charted by flat coordinates). Quantum tunneling (bubble nucleation) then modifies the initial state away from the original Euclidean vacuum. While most of the previous study on modifications of the initial quantum state introduces, by hand, an initial time at which the quantum state is modified as well as the form of the modification, an effective initial time naturally emerges and the form is fixed by quantum tunneling in open inflation models. Therefore, open inflation enables a self-consistent computation of the effect of a modified initial state on the bispectrum. We find a term which goes as langleζk1ζk2ζk3ranglepropto1/k12k34 in the so-called squeezed configurations, k3 << k1 ≈ k2, in agreement with the previous study on modifications of the initial state. The bispectrum in the exact folded limit, e.g., k1 = k2+k3, is also enhanced and remains finite. However, these terms are exponentially suppressed when the wavelength of ζ is smaller than the curvature radius of the universe. The leading-order bispectrum is equal to the usual one from single-field slow-roll inflation; the terms specific for open inflation arise only in the sub-leading order when the wavelength of ζ is smaller than the curvature radius.

46 CFR 131.865 - Inflatable liferafts and inflatable buoyant apparatus.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Inflatable liferafts and inflatable buoyant apparatus... SUPPLY VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire Equipment and Emergency Equipment § 131.865 Inflatable liferafts and inflatable buoyant apparatus. The number of the inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant...

46 CFR 131.865 - Inflatable liferafts and inflatable buoyant apparatus.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Inflatable liferafts and inflatable buoyant apparatus... SUPPLY VESSELS OPERATIONS Markings for Fire Equipment and Emergency Equipment § 131.865 Inflatable liferafts and inflatable buoyant apparatus. The number of the inflatable liferaft or inflatable buoyant...

Are star formation rates of galaxies bimodal?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldmann, Robert

2017-09-01

Star formation rate (SFR) distributions of galaxies are often assumed to be bimodal with modes corresponding to star-forming and quiescent galaxies, respectively. Both classes of galaxies are typically studied separately, and SFR distributions of star-forming galaxies are commonly modelled as lognormals. Using both observational data and results from numerical simulations, I argue that this division into star-forming and quiescent galaxies is unnecessary from a theoretical point of view and that the SFR distributions of the whole population can be well fitted by zero-inflated negative binomial distributions. This family of distributions has three parameters that determine the average SFR of the galaxies in the sample, the scatter relative to the star-forming sequence and the fraction of galaxies with zero SFRs, respectively. The proposed distributions naturally account for (I) the discrete nature of star formation, (II) the presence of 'dead' galaxies with zero SFRs and (III) asymmetric scatter. Excluding 'dead' galaxies, the distribution of log SFR is unimodal with a peak at the star-forming sequence and an extended tail towards low SFRs. However, uncertainties and biases in the SFR measurements can create the appearance of a bimodal distribution.

Last stand of single small field inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramante, Joseph; Lehman, Landon; Martin, Adam; Downes, Sean

2014-07-01

By incorporating both the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the measured value of the spectral index, we set a bound on solo small field inflation of Δϕ/mPl≥1.00√r/0.1 . Unlike previous bounds which require monotonic ɛV, |ηV|<1, and 60 e-folds of inflation, the bound remains valid for nonmonotonic ɛV, |ηV|≳1, and for inflation which occurs only over the eight e-folds which have been observed on the cosmic microwave background. The negative value of the spectral index over the observed eight e-folds is what makes the bound strong; we illustrate this by surveying single field models and finding that for r ≳0.1 and eight e-folds of inflation, there is no simple potential which reproduces observed cosmic microwave background perturbations and remains sub-Planckian. Models that are sub-Planckian after eight e-folds must be patched together with a second epoch of inflation that fills out the remaining ˜50 e-folds. This second, post-cosmic microwave background epoch is characterized by extremely small ɛV and therefore an increasing scalar power spectrum. Using the fact that large power can overabundantly produce primordial black holes, we bound the maximum energy level of the second phase of inflation.

46 CFR 122.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Inspection of Lifesaving Equipment § 122.730 Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus... apparatus must be serviced at a facility specifically approved by the Commandant for the particular brand... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 122.730 Section 122.730 Shipping COAST GUARD...

46 CFR 122.730 - Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Inspection of Lifesaving Equipment § 122.730 Servicing of inflatable liferafts, inflatable buoyant apparatus... apparatus must be serviced at a facility specifically approved by the Commandant for the particular brand... apparatus, inflatable life jackets, and inflated rescue boats. 122.730 Section 122.730 Shipping COAST GUARD...

INFLATE: INFlate Landing Apparatus Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koryanov, V. V. K.; Da-Poian, V. D. P.

2018-02-01

Our project, named INFLATE (INFlatable Landing Apparatus Technology), aims at reducing space landing risks and constraints and so optimizing space missions (reducing cost, mass, and risk and in the same time improving performance).

The Binomial Distribution in Shooting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chalikias, Miltiadis S.

2009-01-01

The binomial distribution is used to predict the winner of the 49th International Shooting Sport Federation World Championship in double trap shooting held in 2006 in Zagreb, Croatia. The outcome of the competition was definitely unexpected.

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of continuous non-negative longitudinal data with a spike at zero: An application to a study of birds visiting gardens in winter.

PubMed

Swallow, Ben; Buckland, Stephen T; King, Ruth; Toms, Mike P

2016-03-01

The development of methods for dealing with continuous data with a spike at zero has lagged behind those for overdispersed or zero-inflated count data. We consider longitudinal ecological data corresponding to an annual average of 26 weekly maximum counts of birds, and are hence effectively continuous, bounded below by zero but also with a discrete mass at zero. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical Tweedie regression model that can directly accommodate the excess number of zeros common to this type of data, whilst accounting for both spatial and temporal correlation. Implementation of the model is conducted in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, using reversible jump MCMC to explore uncertainty across both parameter and model spaces. This regression modelling framework is very flexible and removes the need to make strong assumptions about mean-variance relationships a priori. It can also directly account for the spike at zero, whilst being easily applicable to other types of data and other model formulations. Whilst a correlative study such as this cannot prove causation, our results suggest that an increase in an avian predator may have led to an overall decrease in the number of one of its prey species visiting garden feeding stations in the United Kingdom. This may reflect a change in behaviour of house sparrows to avoid feeding stations frequented by sparrowhawks, or a reduction in house sparrow population size as a result of sparrowhawk increase. © 2015 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Speech-discrimination scores modeled as a binomial variable.

PubMed

Thornton, A R; Raffin, M J

1978-09-01

Many studies have reported variability data for tests of speech discrimination, and the disparate results of these studies have not been given a simple explanation. Arguments over the relative merits of 25- vs 50-word tests have ignored the basic mathematical properties inherent in the use of percentage scores. The present study models performance on clinical tests of speech discrimination as a binomial variable. A binomial model was developed, and some of its characteristics were tested against data from 4120 scores obtained on the CID Auditory Test W-22. A table for determining significant deviations between scores was generated and compared to observed differences in half-list scores for the W-22 tests. Good agreement was found between predicted and observed values. Implications of the binomial characteristics of speech-discrimination scores are discussed.

Is there scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Putter, Roland; Doré, Olivier; Green, Daniel, E-mail: rdputter@caltech.edu, E-mail: Olivier.P.Dore@jpl.nasa.gov, E-mail: drgreen@cita.utoronto.ca

2015-10-01

Scale-dependent halo bias due to local primordial non-Gaussianity provides a strong test of single-field inflation. While it is universally understood that single-field inflation predicts negligible scale-dependent bias compared to current observational uncertainties, there is still disagreement on the exact level of scale-dependent bias at a level that could strongly impact inferences made from future surveys. In this paper, we clarify this confusion and derive in various ways that there is exactly zero scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation. Much of the current confusion follows from the fact that single-field inflation does predict a mode coupling of matter perturbations at the levelmore » of f{sub NL}{sup local}; ≈ −5/3, which naively would lead to scale-dependent bias. However, we show explicitly that this mode coupling cancels out when perturbations are evaluated at a fixed physical scale rather than fixed coordinate scale. Furthermore, we show how the absence of scale-dependent bias can be derived easily in any gauge. This result can then be incorporated into a complete description of the observed galaxy clustering, including the previously studied general relativistic terms, which are important at the same level as scale-dependent bias of order f{sub NL}{sup local} ∼ 1. This description will allow us to draw unbiased conclusions about inflation from future galaxy clustering data.« less

Gauge fields and inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maleknejad, A.; Sheikh-Jabbari, M. M.; Soda, J.

2013-07-01

small field models also have a potential minimum at φ≠0 which the system falls in at the end of inflation. A typical property of small field models is that a sufficient number of e-folds, requires a sub-Planckian inflaton initial value. For this reason they are called small field models. Natural inflation is an example of this type [12]. Hybrid inflation models: These models involve more than one scalar field while inflation is mainly driven by a single inflaton field ϕ. Inflaton starts from a large value rolling down until it reaches a bifurcation point, ϕ=ϕe, after which the field becomes unstable and undergoes a waterfall transition toward its global minimum. Its prime example is the Linde’s hybrid inflation model with the following potential [13] V(ϕ,χ)={λ}/{4}(+{1}/{2}g2ϕ2χ2+{1}/{2}m2ϕ2. During the initial inflationary phase the potential of the hybrid inflation is effectively described by a single field ϕ while inflation ends by a phase transition triggered by the presence of the second scalar field, the waterfall field χ. In other words, when the effective mass squared of a waterfall field becomes negative, the tachyonic instability makes waterfall field roll down toward the true vacuum state and the inflation suddenly ends.Number of e-folds Ne is given as Ne≃{M4}/{4λm2}ln({ϕ0}/{ϕe}), where ϕe={M}/{g} is the critical value of the inflaton below which, due to tachyonic instability, χ=0 becomes unstable and mχ2 gets negative. K-inflation: This is the prime example of models with non-canonical Kinetic term we discuss here. They are described by the action [14] S=∫d4x√{-g}({R}/{2}+P(φ,X)), where φ is a scalar field and X≔-{1}/{2}(. Here, P plays the rule of the effective pressure, while the energy density is given by ρ=2XP-P. Thus, the slow-roll parameter is given as ɛ={3XP}/{2XP-P}. The characteristic feature of these models is that in general they have a non-trivial sound speed cs2 for the propagation of perturbations (cf. our

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of continuous non‐negative longitudinal data with a spike at zero: An application to a study of birds visiting gardens in winter

PubMed Central

Buckland, Stephen T.; King, Ruth; Toms, Mike P.

2015-01-01

The development of methods for dealing with continuous data with a spike at zero has lagged behind those for overdispersed or zero‐inflated count data. We consider longitudinal ecological data corresponding to an annual average of 26 weekly maximum counts of birds, and are hence effectively continuous, bounded below by zero but also with a discrete mass at zero. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical Tweedie regression model that can directly accommodate the excess number of zeros common to this type of data, whilst accounting for both spatial and temporal correlation. Implementation of the model is conducted in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, using reversible jump MCMC to explore uncertainty across both parameter and model spaces. This regression modelling framework is very flexible and removes the need to make strong assumptions about mean‐variance relationships a priori. It can also directly account for the spike at zero, whilst being easily applicable to other types of data and other model formulations. Whilst a correlative study such as this cannot prove causation, our results suggest that an increase in an avian predator may have led to an overall decrease in the number of one of its prey species visiting garden feeding stations in the United Kingdom. This may reflect a change in behaviour of house sparrows to avoid feeding stations frequented by sparrowhawks, or a reduction in house sparrow population size as a result of sparrowhawk increase. PMID:25737026

The Inflatable Poster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tackley, P. J.

2004-12-01

Inflatable devices are frequently used in advertising in order to grab the attention of consumers: one sees, for example, 20 foot tall inflatable drink containers, inflatable cell phones, inflatable bubble gum packets, as well as blimps wafting majestically over major sports events. More usefully, inflatable representations of scientifically-interesting items are widely available, including astronauts, space shuttles, dinosaurs and globes and can help to build and inspire the interest of the general public, and in particular children, in such ideas. How can such concepts be adapted to improve poster presentations? Possibility one is to use relevant existing commercially-available inflatables to dress the poster: skeletons, astronauts, globes and so forth. More exciting is to develop custom inflatables that represent three-dimensional renderings of objects that the poster is describing. Examples of individual objects might be an inflatable slab, inflatable avalanche, inflatable plume, or it's larger cousin, the 10 foot high inflatable superplume or 20 foot high inflatable megaplume. More elaborately, inflatables might represent isosurfaces in three-dimensional spherical convection, although other fabrication methods may be more suitable. More simply, inflatable spheres could be imprinted with the planform of convection, geoid, or other spherical fields of geophysical interest. Finally, it should be possible to put an entire poster on an inflatable object, possibly small ones (balloons) to hand out. A major concern, however, is that the presenter may use such techniques to inflate their scientific findings, or to present overblown ideas.

On the p, q-binomial distribution and the Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundow, P. H.; Rosengren, A.

2010-08-01

We employ p, q-binomial coefficients, a generalisation of the binomial coefficients, to describe the magnetisation distributions of the Ising model. For the complete graph this distribution corresponds exactly to the limit case p = q. We apply our investigation to the simple d-dimensional lattices for d = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and fit p, q-binomial distributions to our data, some of which are exact but most are sampled. For d = 1 and d = 5, the magnetisation distributions are remarkably well-fitted by p,q-binomial distributions. For d = 4 we are only slightly less successful, while for d = 2, 3 we see some deviations (with exceptions!) between the p, q-binomial and the Ising distribution. However, at certain temperatures near T c the statistical moments of the fitted distribution agree with the moments of the sampled data within the precision of sampling. We begin the paper by giving results of the behaviour of the p, q-distribution and its moment growth exponents given a certain parameterisation of p, q. Since the moment exponents are known for the Ising model (or at least approximately for d = 3) we can predict how p, q should behave and compare this to our measured p, q. The results speak in favour of the p, q-binomial distribution's correctness regarding its general behaviour in comparison to the Ising model. The full extent to which they correctly model the Ising distribution, however, is not settled.

Inflation and dark energy from f(R) gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artymowski, Michał; Lalak, Zygmunt

2014-09-01

The standard Starobinsky inflation has been extended to the R + α Rn - β R2-n model to obtain a stable minimum of the Einstein frame scalar potential of the auxiliary field. As a result we have obtained obtain a scalar potential with non-zero value of residual vacuum energy, which may be a source of Dark Energy. Our results can be easily consistent with PLANCK or BICEP2 data for appropriate choices of the value of n.

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

PubMed

Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Soft inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berkin, Andrew L.; Maeda, Kei-Ichi; Yokoyama, Junichi

1990-01-01

The cosmology resulting from two coupled scalar fields was studied, one which is either a new inflation or chaotic type inflation, and the other which has an exponentially decaying potential. Such a potential may appear in the conformally transformed frame of generalized Einstein theories like the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory. The constraints necessary for successful inflation are examined. Conventional GUT models such as SU(5) were found to be compatible with new inflation, while restrictions on the self-coupling constant are significantly loosened for chaotic inflation.

Low-Mass Inflation Systems for Inflatable Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thunnissen, Daniel P.; Webster, Mark S.; Engelbrecht, Carl S.

1995-01-01

The use of inflatable space structures has often been proposed for aerospace and planetary applications. Communication, power generation, and very-long-baseline interferometry are just three potential applications of inflatable technology. The success of inflatable structures depends on the development of an applications of inflatable technology. This paper describes two design studies performed to develop a low mass inflation system. The first study takes advantage of existing onboard propulsion gases to reduce the overall system mass. The second study assumes that there is no onboard propulsion system. Both studies employ advanced components developed for the Pluto fast flyby spacecraft to further reduce mass. The study examined four different types of systems: hydrazine, nitrogen and water, nitrogen, and xenon. This study shows that all of these systems can be built for a small space structure with masses lower than 0.5 kilograms.

First-order inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolb, Edward W.

1991-01-01

In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been revived. In this talk I will discuss some models for first-order inflation, and emphasize unique signatures that result if inflation is realized in a first-order transition. Before discussing first-order inflation, I will briefly review some of the history of inflation to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models.

Bycatch, bait, anglers, and roads: quantifying vector activity and propagule introduction risk across lake ecosystems.

PubMed

Drake, D Andrew R; Mandrak, Nicholas E

2014-06-01

Long implicated in the invasion process, live-bait anglers are highly mobile species vectors with frequent overland transport of fishes. To test hypotheses about the role of anglers in propagule transport, we developed a social-ecological model quantifying the opportunity for species transport beyond the invaded range resulting from bycatch during commercial bait operations, incidental transport, and release to lake ecosystems by anglers. We combined a gravity model with a stochastic, agent-based simulation, representing a 1-yr iteration of live-bait angling and the dynamics of propagule transport at fine spatiotemporal scales (i.e., probability of introducing n propagules per lake per year). A baseline scenario involving round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) indicated that most angling trips were benign; irrespective of lake visitation, anglers failed to purchase and transport propagules (benign trips, median probability P = 0.99912). However, given the large number of probability trials (4.2 million live-bait angling events per year), even the rarest sequence of events (uptake, movement, and deposition of propagules) is anticipated to occur. Risky trips (modal P = 0.00088 trips per year; approximately 1 in 1136) were sufficient to introduce a substantial number of propagules (modal values, Poisson model = 3715 propagules among 1288 lakes per year; zero-inflated negative binomial model = 6722 propagules among 1292 lakes per year). Two patterns of lake-specific introduction risk emerged. Large lakes supporting substantial angling activity experienced propagule pressure likely to surpass demographic barriers to establishment (top 2.5% of lakes with modal outcomes of five to 76 propagules per year; 303 high-risk lakes with three or more propagules, per year). Small or remote lakes were less likely to receive propagules; however, most risk distributions were leptokurtic with a long right tail, indicating the rare occurrence of high propagule loads to most waterbodies

Estimation of inflation parameters for Perturbed Power Law model using recent CMB measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mukherjee, Suvodip; Das, Santanu; Souradeep, Tarun

2015-01-01

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) is an important probe for understanding the inflationary era of the Universe. We consider the Perturbed Power Law (PPL) model of inflation which is a soft deviation from Power Law (PL) inflationary model. This model captures the effect of higher order derivative of Hubble parameter during inflation, which in turn leads to a non-zero effective mass m{sub eff} for the inflaton field. The higher order derivatives of Hubble parameter at leading order sources constant difference in the spectral index for scalar and tensor perturbation going beyond PL model of inflation. PPL model have two observable independentmore » parameters, namely spectral index for tensor perturbation ν{sub t} and change in spectral index for scalar perturbation ν{sub st} to explain the observed features in the scalar and tensor power spectrum of perturbation. From the recent measurements of CMB power spectra by WMAP, Planck and BICEP-2 for temperature and polarization, we estimate the feasibility of PPL model with standard ΛCDM model. Although BICEP-2 claimed a detection of r=0.2, estimates of dust contamination provided by Planck have left open the possibility that only upper bound on r will be expected in a joint analysis. As a result we consider different upper bounds on the value of r and show that PPL model can explain a lower value of tensor to scalar ratio (r<0.1 or r<0.01) for a scalar spectral index of n{sub s}=0.96 by having a non-zero value of effective mass of the inflaton field m{sup 2}{sub eff}/H{sup 2}. The analysis with WP + Planck likelihood shows a non-zero detection of m{sup 2}{sub eff}/H{sup 2} with 5.7 σ and 8.1 σ respectively for r<0.1 and r<0.01. Whereas, with BICEP-2 likelihood m{sup 2}{sub eff}/H{sup 2} = −0.0237 ± 0.0135 which is consistent with zero.« less

Estimation of inflation parameters for Perturbed Power Law model using recent CMB measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Suvodip; Das, Santanu; Joy, Minu; Souradeep, Tarun

2015-01-01

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) is an important probe for understanding the inflationary era of the Universe. We consider the Perturbed Power Law (PPL) model of inflation which is a soft deviation from Power Law (PL) inflationary model. This model captures the effect of higher order derivative of Hubble parameter during inflation, which in turn leads to a non-zero effective mass meff for the inflaton field. The higher order derivatives of Hubble parameter at leading order sources constant difference in the spectral index for scalar and tensor perturbation going beyond PL model of inflation. PPL model have two observable independent parameters, namely spectral index for tensor perturbation νt and change in spectral index for scalar perturbation νst to explain the observed features in the scalar and tensor power spectrum of perturbation. From the recent measurements of CMB power spectra by WMAP, Planck and BICEP-2 for temperature and polarization, we estimate the feasibility of PPL model with standard ΛCDM model. Although BICEP-2 claimed a detection of r=0.2, estimates of dust contamination provided by Planck have left open the possibility that only upper bound on r will be expected in a joint analysis. As a result we consider different upper bounds on the value of r and show that PPL model can explain a lower value of tensor to scalar ratio (r<0.1 or r<0.01) for a scalar spectral index of ns=0.96 by having a non-zero value of effective mass of the inflaton field m2eff/H2. The analysis with WP + Planck likelihood shows a non-zero detection of m2eff/H2 with 5.7 σ and 8.1 σ respectively for r<0.1 and r<0.01. Whereas, with BICEP-2 likelihood m2eff/H2 = -0.0237 ± 0.0135 which is consistent with zero.

Inflatable Structures Technology Handbook. Chapter 21; Inflatable Habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, Kriss J.; Raboin, Jasen; Spexarth, Gary; Valle, Gerard

2000-01-01

The technologies required to design, fabricate, and utilize an inflatable module for space applications has been demonstrated and proven by the TransHab team during the development phase of the program. Through testing and hands-on development several issues about inflatable space structures have been addressed , such as: ease of manufacturing, structural integrity, micrometeorite protection, folding , and vacuum deployment. The TransHab inflatable technology development program has proven that not only are inflatable structures a viable option, but they also offer significant advantages over conventional metallic structures.

Cosmic Inflation

ScienceCinema

Lincoln, Don

2018-01-16

In 1964, scientists discovered a faint radio hiss coming from the heavens and realized that the hiss wasn’t just noise. It was a message from eons ago; specifically the remnants of the primordial fireball, cooled to about 3 degrees above absolute zero. Subsequent research revealed that the radio hiss was the same in every direction. The temperature of the early universe was uniform to at better than a part in a hundred thousand. And this was weird. According to the prevailing theory, the two sides of the universe have never been in contact. So how could two places that had never been in contact be so similar? One possible explanation was proposed in 1979. Called inflation, the theory required that early in the history of the universe, the universe expanded faster than the speed of light. Confused? Watch this video as Fermilab’s Dr. Don Lincoln makes sense of this mind-bending idea.

Cosmic Inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lincoln, Don

In 1964, scientists discovered a faint radio hiss coming from the heavens and realized that the hiss wasn’t just noise. It was a message from eons ago; specifically the remnants of the primordial fireball, cooled to about 3 degrees above absolute zero. Subsequent research revealed that the radio hiss was the same in every direction. The temperature of the early universe was uniform to at better than a part in a hundred thousand. And this was weird. According to the prevailing theory, the two sides of the universe have never been in contact. So how could two places that hadmore » never been in contact be so similar? One possible explanation was proposed in 1979. Called inflation, the theory required that early in the history of the universe, the universe expanded faster than the speed of light. Confused? Watch this video as Fermilab’s Dr. Don Lincoln makes sense of this mind-bending idea.« less

Modeling animal-vehicle collisions using diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson regression.

PubMed

Lao, Yunteng; Wu, Yao-Jan; Corey, Jonathan; Wang, Yinhai

2011-01-01

Two types of animal-vehicle collision (AVC) data are commonly adopted for AVC-related risk analysis research: reported AVC data and carcass removal data. One issue with these two data sets is that they were found to have significant discrepancies by previous studies. In order to model these two types of data together and provide a better understanding of highway AVCs, this study adopts a diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson regression method, an inflated version of bivariate Poisson regression model, to fit the reported AVC and carcass removal data sets collected in Washington State during 2002-2006. The diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson model not only can model paired data with correlation, but also handle under- or over-dispersed data sets as well. Compared with three other types of models, double Poisson, bivariate Poisson, and zero-inflated double Poisson, the diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson model demonstrates its capability of fitting two data sets with remarkable overlapping portions resulting from the same stochastic process. Therefore, the diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson model provides researchers a new approach to investigating AVCs from a different perspective involving the three distribution parameters (λ(1), λ(2) and λ(3)). The modeling results show the impacts of traffic elements, geometric design and geographic characteristics on the occurrences of both reported AVC and carcass removal data. It is found that the increase of some associated factors, such as speed limit, annual average daily traffic, and shoulder width, will increase the numbers of reported AVCs and carcass removals. Conversely, the presence of some geometric factors, such as rolling and mountainous terrain, will decrease the number of reported AVCs. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Anisotropic inflation with a non-minimally coupled electromagnetic field to gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adak, Muzaffer; Akarsu, Özgür; Dereli, Tekin; Sert, Özcan

2017-11-01

We consider the non-minimal model of gravity in Y(R) F2-form. We investigate a particular case of the model, for which the higher order derivatives are eliminated but the scalar curvature R is kept to be dynamical via the constraint YRFmnFmn =-2/κ2. The effective fluid obtained can be represented by interacting electromagnetic field and vacuum depending on Y(R), namely, the energy density of the vacuum tracks R while energy density of the conventional electromagnetic field is dynamically scaled with the factor Y(R)/2. We give exact solutions for anisotropic inflation by assuming the volume scale factor of the Universe exhibits a power-law expansion. The directional scale factors do not necessarily exhibit power-law expansion, which would give rise to a constant expansion anisotropy, but expand non-trivially and give rise to a non-monotonically evolving expansion anisotropy that eventually converges to a non-zero constant. Relying on this fact, we discuss the anisotropic e-fold during the inflation by considering observed scale invariance in CMB and demanding the Universe to undergo the same amount of e-folds in all directions. We calculate the residual expansion anisotropy at the end of inflation, though as a result of non-monotonic behaviour of expansion anisotropy all the axes of the Universe undergo the same of amount of e-folds by the end of inflation. We also discuss the generation of the modified electromagnetic field during the first few e-folds of the inflation and its persistence against to the vacuum till end of inflation.

Determination of refractive index of a simple negative, positive, or zero power lens using wedged plated interferometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, R. P.; Perera, G. M.; George, M. C.; Venkateswarlu, P.

1990-01-01

A nondestructive technique for measuring the refractive index of a negative lens using a wedged plate interferometer is described. The method can be also used for measuring the refractive index of convex or zero power lenses. Schematic diagrams are presented for the use of a wedged plate interferometer for measuring the refractive index of a concave lens and of a convex lens.

Modeling avian abundance from replicated counts using binomial mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans

2005-01-01

Abundance estimation in ecology is usually accomplished by capture–recapture, removal, or distance sampling methods. These may be hard to implement at large spatial scales. In contrast, binomial mixture models enable abundance estimation without individual identification, based simply on temporally and spatially replicated counts. Here, we evaluate mixture models using data from the national breeding bird monitoring program in Switzerland, where some 250 1-km2 quadrats are surveyed using the territory mapping method three times during each breeding season. We chose eight species with contrasting distribution (wide–narrow), abundance (high–low), and detectability (easy–difficult). Abundance was modeled as a random effect with a Poisson or negative binomial distribution, with mean affected by forest cover, elevation, and route length. Detectability was a logit-linear function of survey date, survey date-by-elevation, and sampling effort (time per transect unit). Resulting covariate effects and parameter estimates were consistent with expectations. Detectability per territory (for three surveys) ranged from 0.66 to 0.94 (mean 0.84) for easy species, and from 0.16 to 0.83 (mean 0.53) for difficult species, depended on survey effort for two easy and all four difficult species, and changed seasonally for three easy and three difficult species. Abundance was positively related to route length in three high-abundance and one low-abundance (one easy and three difficult) species, and increased with forest cover in five forest species, decreased for two nonforest species, and was unaffected for a generalist species. Abundance estimates under the most parsimonious mixture models were between 1.1 and 8.9 (median 1.8) times greater than estimates based on territory mapping; hence, three surveys were insufficient to detect all territories for each species. We conclude that binomial mixture models are an important new approach for estimating abundance corrected for

Health Sector Inflation Rate and its Determinants in Iran: A Longitudinal Study (1995-2008).

PubMed

Teimourizad, Abedin; Hadian, Mohamad; Rezaei, Satar; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah

2014-11-01

Health price inflation rate is different from increasing in health expenditures. Health expenditures contain both quantity and prices but inflation rate contains prices. This study aimed to determine the factors that affect the Inflation Rate for Health Care Services (IRCPIHC) in Iran. We used Central Bank of Iran data. We estimated the relationship between the inflation rate and its determinants using dynamic factor variable approach. For this purpose, we used STATA software. The study results revealed a positive relationship between the overall inflation as well as the number of dentists and health inflation. However, number of beds and physicians per 1000 people had a negative relationship with health inflation. When the number of hospital beds and doctors increased, the competition between them increased, as well, thereby decreasing the inflation rate. Moreover, dentists and drug stores had the conditions of monopoly markets; therefore, they could change the prices easier compared to other health sectors. Health inflation is the subset of growth in health expenditures and the determinants of health expenditures are not similar to health inflation.

Integer Solutions of Binomial Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

A good formula is like a good story, rich in description, powerful in communication, and eye-opening to readers. The formula presented in this article for determining the coefficients of the binomial expansion of (x + y)n is one such "good read." The beauty of this formula is in its simplicity--both describing a quantitative situation…

Temperature of the inflaton and duration of inflation from Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe data.

PubMed

Bhattacharya, Kaushik; Mohanty, Subhendra; Rangarajan, Raghavan

2006-03-31

If the initial state of the inflaton field is taken to have a thermal distribution instead of the conventional zero particle vacuum state then the curvature power spectrum gets modified by a temperature dependent factor such that the fluctuation spectrum of the microwave background radiation is enhanced at larger angles. We compare this modified cosmic microwave background spectrum with Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe data to obtain an upper bound on the temperature of the inflaton at the time our current horizon crossed the horizon during inflation. We further conclude that there must be additional -foldings of inflation beyond what is needed to solve the horizon problem.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2018-01-01

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach, and has several attractive features compared to the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, since the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. PMID:26303591

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2016-01-15

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach and has several attractive features compared with the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, because the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Three-Parameter Generalisation of the Beta-Binomial Distribution with Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

York. Rust, R.T. and Klompmaker, J.E. (1981). Improving the estimation procedure for the beta binomial t.v. exposure model. Journal of Marketing ... Research . 18, 442-448. Sabavala, D.J. and Morrison, D.G. (1977). Television show loyalty: a beta- binomial model using recall data. Journal of Advertiuing

Linking parasite populations in hosts to parasite populations in space through Taylor's law and the negative binomial distribution

PubMed Central

Poulin, Robert; Lagrue, Clément

2017-01-01

The spatial distribution of individuals of any species is a basic concern of ecology. The spatial distribution of parasites matters to control and conservation of parasites that affect human and nonhuman populations. This paper develops a quantitative theory to predict the spatial distribution of parasites based on the distribution of parasites in hosts and the spatial distribution of hosts. Four models are tested against observations of metazoan hosts and their parasites in littoral zones of four lakes in Otago, New Zealand. These models differ in two dichotomous assumptions, constituting a 2 × 2 theoretical design. One assumption specifies whether the variance function of the number of parasites per host individual is described by Taylor's law (TL) or the negative binomial distribution (NBD). The other assumption specifies whether the numbers of parasite individuals within each host in a square meter of habitat are independent or perfectly correlated among host individuals. We find empirically that the variance–mean relationship of the numbers of parasites per square meter is very well described by TL but is not well described by NBD. Two models that posit perfect correlation of the parasite loads of hosts in a square meter of habitat approximate observations much better than two models that posit independence of parasite loads of hosts in a square meter, regardless of whether the variance–mean relationship of parasites per host individual obeys TL or NBD. We infer that high local interhost correlations in parasite load strongly influence the spatial distribution of parasites. Local hotspots could influence control and conservation of parasites. PMID:27994156

Statistical methods for the beta-binomial model in teratology.

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, E; Yanagimoto, T

1994-01-01

The beta-binomial model is widely used for analyzing teratological data involving littermates. Recent developments in statistical analyses of teratological data are briefly reviewed with emphasis on the model. For statistical inference of the parameters in the beta-binomial distribution, separation of the likelihood introduces an likelihood inference. This leads to reducing biases of estimators and also to improving accuracy of empirical significance levels of tests. Separate inference of the parameters can be conducted in a unified way. PMID:8187716

Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur

2012-08-01

We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ``tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries.

Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania: The influence of sampling strategy and statistical approach

PubMed Central

Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

2017-01-01

Background Schistosoma mansoni is a parasite of major public health importance in developing countries, where it causes a neglected tropical disease known as intestinal schistosomiasis. However, the distribution of the parasite within many endemic regions is currently unknown, which hinders effective control. The purpose of this study was to characterize the prevalence and intensity of infection of S. mansoni in a remote area of western Tanzania. Methodology/Principal findings Stool samples were collected from 192 children and 147 adults residing in Gombe National Park and four nearby villages. Children were actively sampled in local schools, and adults were sampled passively by voluntary presentation at the local health clinics. The two datasets were therefore analysed separately. Faecal worm egg count (FWEC) data were analysed using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence as calculated based on the simple proportion of non-zero FWEC. For the passively sampled data from adults, the data were consistent with close to 100% true prevalence of infection. Both the prevalence and intensity of infection differed significantly between sites, but there were no significant associations with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk

What is the cause of confidence inflation in the Life Events Inventory (LEI) paradigm?

PubMed

Von Glahn, Nicholas R; Otani, Hajime; Migita, Mai; Langford, Sara J; Hillard, Erin E

2012-01-01

Briefly imagining, paraphrasing, or explaining an event causes people to increase their confidence that this event occurred during childhood-the imagination inflation effect. The mechanisms responsible for the effect were investigated with a new paradigm. In Experiment 1, event familiarity (defined as processing fluency) was varied by asking participants to rate each event once, three times, or five times. No inflation was found, indicating that familiarity does not account for the effect. In Experiment 2, richness of memory representation was manipulated by asking participants to generate zero, three, or six details. Confidence increased from the initial to the final rating in the three- and six-detail conditions, indicating that the effect is based on reality-monitoring errors. However, greater inflation in the three-detail condition than in the six-detail condition indicated that there is a boundary condition. These results were also consistent with an alternative hypothesis, the mental workload hypothesis.

Relating river discharge and water temperature to the recruitment of age‐0 White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1836) in the Columbia River using over‐dispersed catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, Timothy D.; Chapman, Colin G.

2018-01-01

The goals were to (i) determine if river discharge and water temperature during various early life history stages were predictors of age‐0 White Sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus, recruitment, and (ii) provide an example of how over‐dispersed catch data, including data with many zero observations, can be used to better understand the effects of regulated rivers on the productivity of depressed sturgeon populations. An information theoretic approach was used to develop and select negative binomial and zero‐inflated negative binomial models that model the relation of age‐0 White Sturgeon survey data from three contiguous Columbia River reservoirs to river discharge and water temperature during spawning, egg incubation, larval, and post‐larval phases. Age‐0 White Sturgeon were collected with small mesh gill nets in The Dalles and John Day reservoirs from 1997 to 2014 and a bottom trawl in Bonneville Reservoir from 1989 to 2006. Results suggest that seasonal river discharge was positively correlated with age‐0 recruitment; notably that discharge, 16 June–31 July was positively correlated to age‐0 recruitment in all three reservoirs. The best approximating models for two of the three reservoirs also suggest that seasonal water temperature may be a determinant of age‐0 recruitment. Our research demonstrates how over‐dispersed catch data can be used to better understand the effects of environmental conditions on sturgeon populations caused by the construction and operation of dams.

Health Sector Inflation Rate and its Determinants in Iran: A Longitudinal Study (1995–2008)

PubMed Central

TEIMOURIZAD, Abedin; HADIAN, Mohamad; REZAEI, Satar; HOMAIE RAD, Enayatollah

2014-01-01

Abstract Background Health price inflation rate is different from increasing in health expenditures. Health expenditures contain both quantity and prices but inflation rate contains prices. This study aimed to determine the factors that affect the Inflation Rate for Health Care Services (IRCPIHC) in Iran. Methods We used Central Bank of Iran data. We estimated the relationship between the inflation rate and its determinants using dynamic factor variable approach. For this purpose, we used STATA software. Results The study results revealed a positive relationship between the overall inflation as well as the number of dentists and health inflation. However, number of beds and physicians per 1000 people had a negative relationship with health inflation. Conclusion When the number of hospital beds and doctors increased, the competition between them increased, as well, thereby decreasing the inflation rate. Moreover, dentists and drug stores had the conditions of monopoly markets; therefore, they could change the prices easier compared to other health sectors. Health inflation is the subset of growth in health expenditures and the determinants of health expenditures are not similar to health inflation. PMID:26060721

Distinguishing between extra natural inflation and natural inflation after BICEP2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kohri, Kazunori; Lim, C.S.; Lin, Chia-Min, E-mail: kohri@post.kek.jp, E-mail: lim@lab.twcu.ac.jp, E-mail: lin@chuo-u.ac.jp

2014-08-01

In this paper, we carefully calculated the tensor-to-scalar ratio, the running spectral index, and the running of running spectrum for (extra) natural inflation in order to compare with recent BICEP2 data, PLANCK satellite data and future 21 cm data. We discovered that the prediction for running spectral index and the running of running spectrum in natural inflation is different from that in the case of extra natural inflation. Near future observation for the running spectral index can only provide marginal accuracy which may not allow us distinguishing between extra natural inflation from natural inflation clearly unless the experimental accuracy canmore » be further improved.« less

The Other Inflation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aristides

1976-01-01

The other inflation is grade inflation, the label affixed to the indisputable rise in the grade-point averages of undergraduates at public and private, elite and community colleges and universities across the country. The effects of grade inflation upon academic performance were assessed. (Author/RK)

Inflatable Vessel and Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raboin, Jasen L. (Inventor); Valle, Gerard D. (Inventor); Edeen, Gregg A. (Inventor); delaFuente, Horacio M. (Inventor); Schneider, William C. (Inventor); Spexarth, Gary R. (Inventor); Pandya, Shalini Gupta (Inventor); Johnson, Christopher J. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

An inflatable module comprising a structural core and an inflatable shell, wherein the inflatable shell is sealingly attached to the structural core. In its launch or pre-deployed configuration, the wall thickness of the inflatable shell is collapsed by vacuum. Also in this configuration, the inflatable shell is collapsed and efficiently folded around the structural core. Upon deployment, the wall thickness of the inflatable shell is inflated; whereby the inflatable shell itself, is thereby inflated around the structural core, defining therein a large enclosed volume. A plurality of removable shelves are arranged interior to the structural core in the launch configuration. The structural core also includes at least one longeron that, in conjunction with the shelves, primarily constitute the rigid, strong, and lightweight load-bearing structure of the module during launch. The removable shelves are detachable from their arrangement in the launch configuration so that, when the module is in its deployed configuration and launch loads no longer exist, the shelves can be rearranged to provide a module interior arrangement suitable for human habitation and work. In the preferred embodiment, to provide efficiency in structural load paths and attachments, the shape of the inflatable shell is a cylinder with semi-toroidal ends.

CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

Health care usage among immigrants and native-born elderly populations in eleven European countries: results from SHARE

PubMed Central

Guillén, Montserrat; Crimmins, Eileen M.

2013-01-01

Differences in health care utilization of immigrants 50 years of age and older relative to the native-born populations in eleven European countries are investigated. Negative binomial and zero-inflated Poisson regression are used to examine differences between immigrants and native-borns in number of doctor visits, visits to general practitioners, and hospital stays using the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe database. In the pooled European sample and in some individual countries, older immigrants use from 13 to 20% more health services than native-borns after demographic characteristics are controlled. After controlling for the need for health care, differences between immigrants and native-borns in the use of physicians, but not hospitals, are reduced by about half. These are not changed much with the incorporation of indicators of socioeconomic status and extra insurance coverage. Higher country-level relative expenditures on health, paying physicians a fee-for-service, and physician density are associated with higher usage of physician services among immigrants. PMID:21660564

Mental Health Symptoms Among Student Service Members/Veterans and Civilian College Students.

PubMed

Cleveland, Sandi D; Branscum, Adam J; Bovbjerg, Viktor E; Thorburn, Sheryl

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate if and to what extent student service members/veterans differ from civilian college students in the prevalence of self-reported symptoms of poor mental health. The Fall 2011 implementation of the American College Health Association-National College Health Assessment included 27,774 respondents from 44 colleges and universities. Participants were matched using propensity scores, and the prevalence of symptoms was compared using logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The odds of feeling overwhelmed in the last 12 months were significantly lower among student service members/veterans with a history of hazardous duty (odd ratio [OR] = 0.46, adjusted p value <.05) compared with civilian students. Military service, with and without hazardous duty deployment, was not a significant predictor of the total number of symptoms of poor mental health. Current student service members/veterans may not be disproportionately affected by poor psychological functioning.

Inflation from Minkowski space

DOE PAGES

Pirtskhalava, David; Santoni, Luca; Trincherini, Enrico; ...

2014-12-23

Here, we propose a class of scalar models that, once coupled to gravity, lead to cosmologies that smoothly and stably connect an inflationary quasi-de Sitter universe to a low, or even zero-curvature, maximally symmetric spacetime in the asymptotic past, strongly violating the null energy condition (H • >>H2) at intermediate times. The models are deformations of the conformal galileon lagrangian and are therefore based on symmetries, both exact and approximate, that ensure the quantum robustness of the whole picture. The resulting cosmological backgrounds can be viewed as regularized extensions of the galilean genesis scenario, or, equivalently, as ‘early-time-complete’ realizations ofmore » inflation. The late-time inflationary dynamics possesses phenomenologically interesting properties: it can produce a large tensor-to-scalar ratio within the regime of validity of the effective field theory and can lead to sizeable equilateral nongaussianities.« less

Supernatural inflation: inflation from supersymmetry with no (very) small parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randall, Lisa; SoljačiĆ, Marin; Guth, Alan H.

1996-02-01

Most models of inflation have small parameters, either to guarantee sufficient inflation or the correct magnitude of the density perturbations. In this paper we show that, in supersymmetric theories with weak-scale supersymmetry breaking, one can construct viable inflationary models in which the requisite parameters appear naturally in the form of the ratio of mass scales that are already present in the theory. Successful inflationary models can be constructed from the flat-direction fields of a renormalizable supersymmetric potential, and such models can be realized even in the context of a simple GUT extension of the MSSM. We evade naive ``naturalness'' arguments by allowing for more than one field to be relevant to inflation, as in ``hybrid inflation'' models, and we argue that this is the most natural possibility if inflation fields are to be associated with flat direction fields of a supersymmetric theory. Such models predict a very low Hubble constant during inflation, of order 103-104 GeV, a scalar density perturbation index n which is very close to or greater than unity, and negligible tensor perturbations. In addition, these models lead to a large spike in the density perturbation spectrum at short wavelengths.

Soft inflation. [in cosmology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berkin, Andrew L.; Maeda, Kei-Ichi; Yokoyama, Jun'ichi

1990-01-01

The cosmology resulting from two coupled scalar fields was studied, one which is either a new inflation or chaotic type inflation, and the other which has an exponentially decaying potential. Such a potential may appear in the conformally transformed frame of generalized Einstein theories like the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory. The constraints necessary for successful inflation are examined. Conventional GUT models such as SU(5) were found to be compatible with new inflation, while restrictions on the self-coupling constant are significantly loosened for chaotic inflation.

On Models for Binomial Data with Random Numbers of Trials

PubMed Central

Comulada, W. Scott; Weiss, Robert E.

2010-01-01

Summary A binomial outcome is a count s of the number of successes out of the total number of independent trials n = s + f, where f is a count of the failures. The n are random variables not fixed by design in many studies. Joint modeling of (s, f) can provide additional insight into the science and into the probability π of success that cannot be directly incorporated by the logistic regression model. Observations where n = 0 are excluded from the binomial analysis yet may be important to understanding how π is influenced by covariates. Correlation between s and f may exist and be of direct interest. We propose Bayesian multivariate Poisson models for the bivariate response (s, f), correlated through random effects. We extend our models to the analysis of longitudinal and multivariate longitudinal binomial outcomes. Our methodology was motivated by two disparate examples, one from teratology and one from an HIV tertiary intervention study. PMID:17688514

Abstract knowledge versus direct experience in processing of binomial expressions

PubMed Central

Morgan, Emily; Levy, Roger

2016-01-01

We ask whether word order preferences for binomial expressions of the form A and B (e.g. bread and butter) are driven by abstract linguistic knowledge of ordering constraints referencing the semantic, phonological, and lexical properties of the constituent words, or by prior direct experience with the specific items in questions. Using forced-choice and self-paced reading tasks, we demonstrate that online processing of never-before-seen binomials is influenced by abstract knowledge of ordering constraints, which we estimate with a probabilistic model. In contrast, online processing of highly frequent binomials is primarily driven by direct experience, which we estimate from corpus frequency counts. We propose a trade-off wherein processing of novel expressions relies upon abstract knowledge, while reliance upon direct experience increases with increased exposure to an expression. Our findings support theories of language processing in which both compositional generation and direct, holistic reuse of multi-word expressions play crucial roles. PMID:27776281

The influence of impulsiveness on binge eating and problem gambling: A prospective study of gender differences in Canadian adults.

PubMed

Farstad, Sarah M; von Ranson, Kristin M; Hodgins, David C; El-Guebaly, Nady; Casey, David M; Schopflocher, Don P

2015-09-01

This study investigated the degree to which facets of impulsiveness predicted future binge eating and problem gambling, 2 theorized forms of behavioral addiction. Participants were 596 women and 406 men from 4 age cohorts randomly recruited from a Canadian province. Participants completed self-report measures of 3 facets of impulsiveness (negative urgency, sensation seeking, lack of persistence), binge-eating frequency, and problem-gambling symptoms. Impulsiveness was assessed at baseline, and assessments of binge eating and problem gambling were followed up after 3 years. Weighted data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial and Poisson regression models. We found evidence of transdiagnostic and disorder-specific predictors of binge eating and problem gambling. Negative urgency emerged as a common predictor of binge eating and problem gambling among women and men. There were disorder-specific personality traits identified among men only: High lack-of-persistence scores predicted binge eating and high sensation-seeking scores predicted problem gambling. Among women, younger age predicted binge eating and older age predicted problem gambling. Thus, there are gender differences in facets of impulsiveness that longitudinally predict binge eating and problem gambling, suggesting that treatments for these behaviors should consider gender-specific personality and demographic traits in addition to the common personality trait of negative urgency. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Response of selected binomial coefficients to varying degrees of matrix sparseness and to matrices with known data interrelationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archer, A.W.; Maples, C.G.

1989-01-01

Numerous departures from ideal relationships are revealed by Monte Carlo simulations of widely accepted binomial coefficients. For example, simulations incorporating varying levels of matrix sparseness (presence of zeros indicating lack of data) and computation of expected values reveal that not only are all common coefficients influenced by zero data, but also that some coefficients do not discriminate between sparse or dense matrices (few zero data). Such coefficients computationally merge mutually shared and mutually absent information and do not exploit all the information incorporated within the standard 2 ?? 2 contingency table; therefore, the commonly used formulae for such coefficients are more complicated than the actual range of values produced. Other coefficients do differentiate between mutual presences and absences; however, a number of these coefficients do not demonstrate a linear relationship to matrix sparseness. Finally, simulations using nonrandom matrices with known degrees of row-by-row similarities signify that several coefficients either do not display a reasonable range of values or are nonlinear with respect to known relationships within the data. Analyses with nonrandom matrices yield clues as to the utility of certain coefficients for specific applications. For example, coefficients such as Jaccard, Dice, and Baroni-Urbani and Buser are useful if correction of sparseness is desired, whereas the Russell-Rao coefficient is useful when sparseness correction is not desired. ?? 1989 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Numerical Simulation of Parachute Inflation Process by IB Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyoshi, Masaya; Mori, Koichi; Nakamura, Yoshiaki

In the present study the deformation and motion of a parachute in the process of inflation are simulated by applying the immersed boundary technique in a fluid-structure coupling solver. It was found from simulated results that the canopy is first inflated in the normal direction to the uniform flow (in the lateral direction), and then its apex is pulled by a vortex ring generated near the canopy's outer surface due to its negative pressure. After the end of this inflation process, the canopy moves in the tangential direction to the spherical surface, the center of which is located at the payload location. This motion is caused by the breakup of an initial axisymmetric vortex, where many vortices are generated from the shear layer. The predicted maximum parachute opening force is twice as large as the payload force in the steady state, which is in good agreement with experiment.

Is a Higgs vacuum instability fatal for high-scale inflation?

DOE PAGES

Kearney, John; Yoo, Hojin; Zurek, Kathryn M.

2015-06-25

We study the inflationary evolution of a scalar field h with an unstable potential for the case where the Hubble parameter H during inflation is larger than the instability scale Λ I of the potential. Quantum fluctuations in the field of size δh ~ H/2π imply that the unstable part of the potential is sampled during inflation. We investigate the evolution of these fluctuations to the unstable regime and in particular whether they generate cosmological defects or even terminate inflation. We apply the results of a toy scalar model to the case of the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson, themore » quartic of which evolves to negative values at high scales, and extend previous analyses of Higgs dynamics during inflation utilizing statistical methods to a perturbative and fully gauge-invariant formulation. We show that the dynamics are controlled by the renormalization group-improved quartic coupling λ(μ) evaluated at a scale μ = H, such that Higgs fluctuations are enhanced by the instability if H > Λ I. Even if H > Λ I, the instability in the Standard Model Higgs potential does not end inflation; instead the universe slowly sloughs off crunching patches of space that never come to dominate the evolution. As inflation proceeds past 50 e-folds, a significant proportion of patches exits inflation in the unstable vacuum, and as much as 1% of the spacetime can rapidly evolve to a defect. Depending on the nature of these defects, however, the resulting universe could still be compatible with ours.« less

First-order inflation. [in cosmology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolb, Edward W.

1991-01-01

In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been revived. In this paper, some models for first-order inflation are discussed, and unique signatures that result if inflation is realized in a first-order transition are emphasized. Some of the history of inflation is reviewed to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models.

How thermal inflation can save minimal hybrid inflation in supergravity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Owen, Charlotte

2016-10-12

Minimal hybrid inflation in supergravity has been ruled out by the 2015 Planck observations because the spectral index of the produced curvature perturbation falls outside observational bounds. To resurrect the model, a number of modifications have been put forward but many of them spoil the accidental cancellation that resolves the η-problem and require complicated Kähler constructions to counterbalance the lost cancellation. In contrast, in this paper the model is rendered viable by supplementing the scenario with a brief period of thermal inflation, which follows the reheating of primordial inflation. The scalar field responsible for thermal inflation requires a large non-zeromore » vacuum expectation value (VEV) and a flat potential. We investigate the VEV of such a flaton field and its subsequent effect on the inflationary observables. We find that, for large VEV, minimal hybrid inflation in supergravity produces a spectral index within the 1-σ Planck bound and a tensor-to-scalar ratio which may be observable in the near future. The mechanism is applicable to other inflationary models.« less

Inflatable wing

DOEpatents

Priddy, Tommy G.

1988-01-01

An inflatable wing is formed from a pair of tapered, conical inflatable tubes in bonded tangential contact with each other. The tubes are further connected together by means of top and bottom reinforcement boards having corresponding longitudinal edges lying in the same central diametral plane passing through the associated tube. The reinforcement boards are made of a stiff reinforcement material, such as Kevlar, collapsible in a direction parallel to the spanwise wing axis upon deflation of the tubes. The stiff reinforcement material cooperates with the inflated tubes to impart structural I-beam characteristics to the composite structure for transferring inflation pressure-induced tensile stress from the tubes to the reinforcement boards. A plurality of rigid hoops shaped to provide airfoil definition are spaced from each other along the spanwise axis and are connected to the top and bottom reinforcement boards. Tension lines are employed for stabilizing the hoops along the trailing and leading edges thereof.

Zero Tolerance: Advantages and Disadvantages. Research Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Karen

2009-01-01

What are the positives and negatives of zero tolerance? What should be considered when examining a school's program? Although there are no definitive definitions of zero tolerance, two commonly used ones are as follows: "Zero tolerance means that a school will automatically and severely punish a student for a variety of infractions" (American Bar…

Inflatable nested toroid structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Christopher J. (Inventor); Raboin, Jasen L. (Inventor); Spexarth, Gary R. (Inventor)

2011-01-01

An inflatable structure comprises at least two generally toroidal, inflatable modules. When in a deployed mode, the first, inner module has a major diameter less than that of a second, outer module and is positioned within the inner circumference of the outer module such that the first module is nested circumferentially alongside the second module. The inflatable structure, in a non-deployed, non-inflated mode, is of compact configuration and adapted to be transported to a site of deployment. When deployed, the inflatable structure is of substantially increased interior volume. In one embodiment, access between the interior of the first module and the second module is provided by at least one port or structural pass-through. In another embodiment, the inflatable structure includes at least one additional generally toroidal module external of and circumferentially surrounding the second module.

Attractors, universality, and inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downes, Sean; Dutta, Bhaskar; Sinha, Kuver

2012-11-01

Studies of the initial conditions for inflation have conflicting predictions from exponential suppression to inevitability. At the level of phase space, this conflict arises from the competing intuitions of CPT invariance and thermodynamics. After reviewing this conflict, we enlarge the ensemble beyond phase space to include scalar potential data. We show how this leads to an important contribution from inflection point inflation, enhancing the likelihood of inflation to a power law, 1/Ne3. In the process, we emphasize the attractor dynamics of the gravity-scalar system and the existence of universality classes from inflection point inflation. Finally, we comment on the predictivity of inflation in light of these results.

Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models.

PubMed

Chan, Ta-Chien; Teng, Yung-Chu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang

2015-02-21

Emerging novel influenza outbreaks have increasingly been a threat to the public and a major concern of public health departments. Real-time data in seamless surveillance systems such as health insurance claims data for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) are ready for analysis, making it highly desirable to develop practical techniques to analyze such readymade data for outbreak detection so that the public can receive timely influenza epidemic warnings. This study proposes a simple and effective approach to analyze area-based health insurance claims data including outpatient and emergency department (ED) visits for early detection of any aberrations of ILI. The health insurance claims data during 2004-2009 from a national health insurance research database were used for developing early detection methods. The proposed approach fitted the daily new ILI visits and monitored the Pearson residuals directly for aberration detection. First, negative binomial regression was used for both outpatient and ED visits to adjust for potentially influential factors such as holidays, weekends, seasons, temporal dependence and temperature. Second, if the Pearson residuals exceeded 1.96, aberration signals were issued. The empirical validation of the model was done in 2008 and 2009. In addition, we designed a simulation study to compare the time of outbreak detection, non-detection probability and false alarm rate between the proposed method and modified CUSUM. The model successfully detected the aberrations of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus in northern, central and southern Taiwan. The proposed approach was more sensitive in identifying aberrations in ED visits than those in outpatient visits. Simulation studies demonstrated that the proposed approach could detect the aberrations earlier, and with lower non-detection probability and mean false alarm rate in detecting aberrations compared to modified CUSUM methods. The proposed simple approach was able to filter out temporal

Inflation with a graceful exit in a random landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, F. G.; Westphal, A.

2017-03-01

We develop a stochastic description of small-field inflationary histories with a graceful exit in a random potential whose Hessian is a Gaussian random matrix as a model of the unstructured part of the string landscape. The dynamical evolution in such a random potential from a small-field inflation region towards a viable late-time de Sitter (dS) minimum maps to the dynamics of Dyson Brownian motion describing the relaxation of non-equilibrium eigenvalue spectra in random matrix theory. We analytically compute the relaxation probability in a saddle point approximation of the partition function of the eigenvalue distribution of the Wigner ensemble describing the mass matrices of the critical points. When applied to small-field inflation in the landscape, this leads to an exponentially strong bias against small-field ranges and an upper bound N ≪ 10 on the number of light fields N participating during inflation from the non-observation of negative spatial curvature.

31 CFR 356.20 - How does the Treasury determine auction awards?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... and bond issues. We set the interest rate at a 1/8 of one percent increment. If a Treasury inflation-protected securities auction results in a negative or zero yield, the interest rate will be set at zero, and...

On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.

PubMed

Aydogmus, Ozgur

2016-09-01

We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of cigarette smoking on utilization of nursing home services.

PubMed

Warner, Kenneth E; McCammon, Ryan J; Fries, Brant E; Langa, Kenneth M

2013-11-01

Few studies have examined the effects of smoking on nursing home utilization, generally using poor data on smoking status. No previous study has distinguished utilization for recent from long-term quitters. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we assessed nursing home utilization by never-smokers, long-term quitters (quit >3 years), recent quitters (quit ≤3 years), and current smokers. We used logistic regression to evaluate the likelihood of a nursing home admission. For those with an admission, we used negative binomial regression on the number of nursing home nights. Finally, we employed zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate nights for the full sample. Controlling for other variables, compared with never-smokers, long-term quitters have an odds ratio (OR) for nursing home admission of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07-1.2), current smokers 1.39 (1.23-1.57), and recent quitters 1.55 (1.29-1.87). The probability of admission rises rapidly with age and is lower for African Americans and Hispanics, more affluent respondents, respondents with a spouse present in the home, and respondents with a living child. Given admission, smoking status is not associated with length of stay (LOS). LOS is longer for older respondents and women and shorter for more affluent respondents and those with spouses present. Compared with otherwise identical never-smokers, former and current smokers have a significantly increased risk of nursing home admission. That recent quitters are at greatest risk of admission is consistent with evidence that many stop smoking because they are sick, often due to smoking.

Vacuum Energy and Inflation: 4. An Inflationary Universe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huggins, Elisha

2013-01-01

This is the fourth paper in a series of four. The first paper in the series, "Vacuum Energy and Inflation: 1. A Liter of Vacuum Energy" [EJ1024183] discusses an example of vacuum energy. Vacuum energy is explained as an energy with a negative pressure whose energy density remains constant in an expanding space. Paper 2, "Vacuum…

Vacuum Energy and Inflation: 3. Newtonian Cosmology & GR

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huggins, Elisha

2013-01-01

This is paper #3 in a series of four papers on "vacuum energy" and inflation. In paper #1 [see EJ1024183] we discussed an example of what we have been calling vacuum energy. It is an energy with negative pressure whose energy density remains constant in an expanding space. We showed that an energy density with these properties exists…

Non-Abelian S-term dark energy and inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, Yeinzon; Navarro, Andrés A.

2018-03-01

We study the role that a cosmic triad in the generalized SU(2) Proca theory, specifically in one of the pieces of the Lagrangian that involves the symmetric version Sμν of the gauge field strength tensor Fμν, has on dark energy and primordial inflation. Regarding dark energy, the triad behaves asymptotically as a couple of radiation perfect fluids whose energy densities are negative for the S term but positive for the Yang-Mills term. This leads to an interesting dynamical fine-tuning mechanism that gives rise to a combined equation of state parameter ω ≃ - 1 and, therefore, to an eternal period of accelerated isotropic expansion for an ample spectrum of initial conditions. Regarding primordial inflation, one of the critical points of the associated dynamical system can describe a prolonged period of isotropic slow-roll inflation sustained by the S term. This period ends up when the Yang-Mills term dominates the energy density leading to the radiation dominated epoch. Unfortunately, in contrast to the dark energy case, the primordial inflation scenario is strongly sensitive to the coupling constants and initial conditions. The whole model, including the other pieces of the Lagrangian that involve Sμν, might evade the recent strong constraints coming from the gravitational wave signal GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart GRB 170817A.

Modulus D-term inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Saga, Ikumi; Sumita, Keigo

2018-04-01

We propose a new model of single-field D-term inflation in supergravity, where the inflation is driven by a single modulus field which transforms non-linearly under the U(1) gauge symmetry. One of the notable features of our modulus D-term inflation scenario is that the global U(1) remains unbroken in the vacuum and hence our model is not plagued by the cosmic string problem which can exclude most of the conventional D-term inflation models proposed so far due to the CMB observations.

Kähler-driven tribrid inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David

2012-11-01

We discuss a new class of tribrid inflation models in supergravity, where the shape of the inflaton potential is dominated by effects from the Kähler potential. Tribrid inflation is a variant of hybrid inflation which is particularly suited for connecting inflation with particle physics, since the inflaton can be a D-flat combination of charged fields from the matter sector. In models of tribrid inflation studied so far, the inflaton potential was dominated by either loop corrections or by mixing effects with the waterfall field (as in "pseudosmooth" tribrid inflation). Here we investigate the third possibility, namely that tribrid inflation is dominantly driven by effects from higher-dimensional operators of the Kähler potential. We specify for which superpotential parameters the new regime is realized and show how it can be experimentally distinguished from the other two (loop-driven and "pseudosmooth") regimes.

Tachyon field in loop quantum cosmology: Inflation and evolution picture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong Huaui; Zhu Jianyang

2007-04-15

Loop quantum cosmology (LQC) predicts a nonsingular evolution of the universne through a bounce in the high energy region. We show that this is always true in tachyon matter LQC. Differing from the classical Friedman-Robertson-Walker (FRW) cosmology, the super inflation can appear in the tachyon matter LQC; furthermore, the inflation can be extended to the region where classical inflation stops. Using the numerical method, we give an evolution picture of the tachyon field with an exponential potential in the context of LQC. It indicates that the quantum dynamical solutions have the same attractive behavior as the classical solutions do. Themore » whole evolution of the tachyon field is that in the distant past, the tachyon field--being in the contracting cosmology--accelerates to climb up the potential hill with a negative velocity; then at the boundary the tachyon field is bounced into an expanding universe with positive velocity rolling down to the bottom of the potential. In the slow roll limit, we compare the quantum inflation with the classical case in both an analytic and a numerical way.« less

Gravitational waves from warm inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xi-Bin; Wang, He; Zhu, Jian-Yang

2018-03-01

A fundamental prediction of inflation is a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of gravitational wave. The features of such a signal provide extremely important information about the physics of the early universe. In this paper, we focus on several topics about warm inflation. First, we discuss the stability property about warm inflation based on nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, which gives more fundamental physical illustrations to thermal property of such model. Then, we calculate the power spectrum of gravitational waves generated during warm inflation, in which there are three components contributing to such spectrum: thermal term, quantum term, and cross term combining the both. We also discuss some interesting properties about these terms and illustrate them in different panels. As a model different from cold inflation, warm inflation model has its individual properties in observational practice, so we finally give a discussion about the observational effect to distinguish it from cold inflation.

STS-45 crewmembers during zero gravity activities onboard KC-135 NASA 930

NASA Image and Video Library

1991-08-21

S91-44453 (21 Aug 1991) --- The crew of STS-45 is already training for its March 1992 mission, including stints on the KC-135 zero-gravity-simulating aircraft. Shown with an inflatable globe are, clockwise from the top, C. Michael Foale, mission specialist; Dirk Frimout, payload specialist; Brian Duffy, pilot; Charles R. (Rick) Chappell, backup payload specialist; Charles F. Bolden, mission commander; Byron K. Lichtenberg, payload specialist; and Kathryn D. Sullivan, payload commander.

Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

PubMed

Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

2015-01-01

Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

Modeling Forest Fire Occurrences Using Count-Data Mixed Models in Qiannan Autonomous Prefecture of Guizhou Province in China

PubMed Central

Ji, Ping

2015-01-01

Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence. PMID:25790309

Anisotopic inflation with a non-abelian gauge field in Gauss-Bonnet gravity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lahiri, Sayantani, E-mail: sayantani.lahiri@gmail.com

2017-01-01

In presence of Gauss-Bonnet corrections, we study anisotropic inflation aided by a massless SU(2) gauge field where both the gauge field and the Gauss-Bonnet term are non-minimally coupled to the inflaton. In this scenario, under slow-roll approximations, the anisotropic inflation is realized as an attractor solution with quadratic forms of inflaton potential and Gauss-Bonnet coupling function. We show that the degree of anisotropy is proportional to the additive combination of two slow-roll parameters of the theory. The anisotropy may become either positive or negative similar to the non-Gauss-Bonnet framework, a feature of the model for anisotropic inflation supported by amore » non-abelian gauge field but the effect of Gauss-Bonnet term further enhances or suppresses the generated anisotropy.« less

Large enhancement of interface second-harmonic generation near the zero-n(-) gap of a negative-index Bragg grating.

PubMed

D'Aguanno, Giuseppe; Mattiucci, Nadia; Bloemer, Mark J; Scalora, Michael

2006-03-01

We predict a large enhancement of interface second-harmonic generation near the zero-n(-) gap of a Bragg grating made of alternating layers of negative- and positive-index materials. Field localization and coherent oscillations of the nonlinear dipoles located at the structure's interfaces conspire to yield conversion efficiencies at least an order of magnitude greater than those achievable in the same length of nonlinear, phase-matched bulk material. These findings thus point to a new class of second-harmonic-generation devices made of standard centrosymmetric materials.

Can a supersonically expanding Bose-Einstein Condensates be used to study cosmological inflation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banik, Swarnav; Eckel, Stephen; Kumar, Avinash; Jacobson, Ted; Spielman, Ian; Campbell, Gretchen

2017-04-01

The massive scale of the universe makes the experimental study of cosmological inflation difficult. This has led to an interest in developing analogous systems using table top experiments. Here, we present the basic features of an expanding universe by drawing parallels with an expanding toroidal Bose Einstein Condensate (BEC) of 23Na atoms. The toroidal BEC serves as the background vacuum and phonons are the analogue to photons in the expanding universe. We study the dynamics of phonons in both non-expanding and expanding condensates and measure dissipation using the structure factor. We demonstrate red shifting of phonons and quasi-particle production similar to pre-heating after the inflation of universe. At the end of expansion, we also observe spontaneous non-zero winding numbers in the ring. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we predict the widths of the resulting winding number distribution, which agree well with our experimental findings.

Oxygen delivery using neonatal self-inflating bags without reservoirs.

PubMed

Sugiura, Takahiro; Urushibata, Rei; Komatsu, Kenji; Shioda, Tsutomu; Ota, Tatsuki; Sato, Megumi; Okubo, Yumiko; Fukuoka, Tetsuya; Hosono, Shigeharu; Tamura, Masanori

2017-02-01

Guidelines recommend avoiding excessive oxygen during neonatal resuscitation. Recent studies have suggested that oxygen titration can be achieved using a self-inflating bag, but data on the effectiveness of resuscitators used in neonatal ventilation are scarce, The aim of this study was therefore to determine the amount of oxygen delivered using several brands of neonatal self-inflating resuscitation bags without reservoirs under different conditions with regard to oxygen flow rate, ventilation rate (VR), peak inspiratory pressure (PIP) range, and test lung compliance. Oxygen concentration was measured under a variety of conditions. Combinations of oxygen flow rate (10, 5.0, 3.0 and 1.0 L/min), VR (40, 60 inflations/min), PIP range (20-25 cmH 2 O, 35-40 cmH 2 O), and test lung compliance (0.6, 1.0, 3.0, and 5.0 mL/cmH 2 O) were examined using six kinds of self-inflating bag. Delivered oxygen concentration varied widely (30.1-96.7%) and had a significant positive correlation with gas flow rate in all of the bags. Delivered oxygen concentration was also negatively correlated with PIP in all of the bags and with VR in some of them. Test lung compliance did not affect delivered oxygen concentration. The use of neonatal resuscitation self-inflating bags without reservoirs resulted in different delivered oxygen concentrations depending on gas flow rate, VR, PIP, and manufacturer, but not on lung compliance. This suggests that targeted oxygen concentrations could be delivered, even in lungs with decreased compliance, during resuscitation. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

Alchemical inflation: inflaton turns into Higgs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Kazunori; Takahashi, Fuminobu

2012-11-01

We propose a new inflation model in which a gauge singlet inflaton turns into the Higgs condensate after inflation. The inflationary path is characterized by a moduli space of supersymmetric vacua spanned by the inflaton and Higgs field. The inflation energy scale is related to the soft supersymmetry breaking, and the Hubble parameter during inflation is smaller than the gravitino mass. The initial condition for the successful inflation is naturally realized by the pre-inflation in which the Higgs plays a role of the waterfall field.

Revealing Word Order: Using Serial Position in Binomials to Predict Properties of the Speaker

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iliev, Rumen; Smirnova, Anastasia

2016-01-01

Three studies test the link between word order in binomials and psychological and demographic characteristics of a speaker. While linguists have already suggested that psychological, cultural and societal factors are important in choosing word order in binomials, the vast majority of relevant research was focused on general factors and on broadly…

Selecting Tools to Model Integer and Binomial Multiplication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pratt, Sarah Smitherman; Eddy, Colleen M.

2017-01-01

Mathematics teachers frequently provide concrete manipulatives to students during instruction; however, the rationale for using certain manipulatives in conjunction with concepts may not be explored. This article focuses on area models that are currently used in classrooms to provide concrete examples of integer and binomial multiplication. The…

Sharp predictions from eternal inflation patches in D-brane inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hertog, Thomas; Janssen, Oliver, E-mail: thomas.hertog@fys.kuleuven.be, E-mail: opj202@nyu.edu

We numerically generate the six-dimensional landscape of D3-brane inflation and identify patches of eternal inflation near sufficiently flat inflection points of the potential. We show that reasonable measures that select patches of eternal inflation in the landscape yield sharp predictions for the spectral properties of primordial perturbations on observable scales. These include a scalar tilt of .936, a running of the scalar tilt −.00103, undetectably small tensors and non-Gaussianity, and no observable spatial curvature. Our results explicitly demonstrate that precision cosmology probes the combination of the statistical properties of the string landscape and the measure implied by the universe's quantummore » state.« less

Discrimination of numerical proportions: A comparison of binomial and Gaussian models.

PubMed

Raidvee, Aire; Lember, Jüri; Allik, Jüri

2017-01-01

Observers discriminated the numerical proportion of two sets of elements (N = 9, 13, 33, and 65) that differed either by color or orientation. According to the standard Thurstonian approach, the accuracy of proportion discrimination is determined by irreducible noise in the nervous system that stochastically transforms the number of presented visual elements onto a continuum of psychological states representing numerosity. As an alternative to this customary approach, we propose a Thurstonian-binomial model, which assumes discrete perceptual states, each of which is associated with a certain visual element. It is shown that the probability β with which each visual element can be noticed and registered by the perceptual system can explain data of numerical proportion discrimination at least as well as the continuous Thurstonian-Gaussian model, and better, if the greater parsimony of the Thurstonian-binomial model is taken into account using AIC model selection. We conclude that Gaussian and binomial models represent two different fundamental principles-internal noise vs. using only a fraction of available information-which are both plausible descriptions of visual perception.

Modeling zero-modified count and semicontinuous data in health services research part 2: case studies.

PubMed

Neelon, Brian; O'Malley, A James; Smith, Valerie A

2016-11-30

This article is the second installment of a two-part tutorial on the analysis of zero-modified count and semicontinuous data. Part 1, which appears as a companion piece in this issue of Statistics in Medicine, provides a general background and overview of the topic, with particular emphasis on applications to health services research. Here, we present three case studies highlighting various approaches for the analysis of zero-modified data. The first case study describes methods for analyzing zero-inflated longitudinal count data. Case study 2 considers the use of hurdle models for the analysis of spatiotemporal count data. The third case study discusses an application of marginalized two-part models to the analysis of semicontinuous health expenditure data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mesopores induced zero thermal expansion in single-crystal ferroelectrics.

PubMed

Ren, Zhaohui; Zhao, Ruoyu; Chen, Xing; Li, Ming; Li, Xiang; Tian, He; Zhang, Ze; Han, Gaorong

2018-04-24

For many decades, zero thermal expansion materials have been the focus of numerous investigations because of their intriguing physical properties and potential applications in high-precision instruments. Different strategies, such as composites, solid solution and doping, have been developed as promising approaches to obtain zero thermal expansion materials. However, microstructure controlled zero thermal expansion behavior via interface or surface has not been realized. Here we report the observation of an impressive zero thermal expansion (volumetric thermal expansion coefficient, -1.41 × 10 -6  K -1 , 293-623 K) in single-crystal ferroelectric PbTiO 3 fibers with large-scale faceted and enclosed mesopores. The zero thermal expansion behavior is attributed to a synergetic effect of positive thermal expansion near the mesopores due to the oxygen-based polarization screening and negative thermal expansion from an intrinsic ferroelectricity. Our results show that a fascinating surface construction in negative thermal expansion ferroelectric materials could be a promising strategy to realize zero thermal expansion.

Phenomenology of fermion production during axion inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adshead, Peter; Pearce, Lauren; Peloso, Marco; Roberts, Michael A.; Sorbo, Lorenzo

2018-06-01

We study the production of fermions through a derivative coupling with a pseudoscalar inflaton and the effects of the produced fermions on the scalar primordial perturbations. We present analytic results for the modification of the scalar power spectrum due to the produced fermions, and we estimate the amplitude of the non-Gaussianities in the equilateral regime. Remarkably, we find a regime where the effect of the fermions gives the dominant contribution to the scalar spectrum while the amplitude of the bispectrum is small and in agreement with observation. We also note the existence of a regime in which the backreaction of the fermions on the evolution of the zero-mode of the inflaton can lead to inflation even if the potential of the inflaton is steep and does not satisfy the slow-roll conditions.

Observing the inflation potential. [in models of cosmological inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Copeland, Edmund J.; Kolb, Edward W.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Lidsey, James E.

1993-01-01

We show how observations of the density perturbation (scalar) spectrum and the gravitational wave (tensor) spectrum allow a reconstruction of the potential responsible for cosmological inflation. A complete functional reconstruction or a perturbative approximation about a single scale are possible; the suitability of each approach depends on the data available. Consistency equations between the scalar and tensor spectra are derived, which provide a powerful signal of inflation.

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authorsmore » of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]« less

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Modeling zero-modified count and semicontinuous data in health services research Part 1: background and overview.

PubMed

Neelon, Brian; O'Malley, A James; Smith, Valerie A

2016-11-30

Health services data often contain a high proportion of zeros. In studies examining patient hospitalization rates, for instance, many patients will have no hospitalizations, resulting in a count of zero. When the number of zeros is greater or less than expected under a standard count model, the data are said to be zero modified relative to the standard model. A similar phenomenon arises with semicontinuous data, which are characterized by a spike at zero followed by a continuous distribution with positive support. When analyzing zero-modified count and semicontinuous data, flexible mixture distributions are often needed to accommodate both the excess zeros and the typically skewed distribution of nonzero values. Various models have been introduced over the past three decades to accommodate such data, including hurdle models, zero-inflated models, and two-part semicontinuous models. This tutorial describes recent modeling strategies for zero-modified count and semicontinuous data and highlights their role in health services research studies. Part 1 of the tutorial, presented here, provides a general overview of the topic. Part 2, appearing as a companion piece in this issue of Statistics in Medicine, discusses three case studies illustrating applications of the methods to health services research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Topological defects in extended inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Copeland, Edmund J.; Kolb, Edward W.; Liddle, Andrew R.

1990-01-01

The production of topological defects, especially cosmic strings, in extended inflation models was considered. In extended inflation, the Universe passes through a first-order phase transition via bubble percolation, which naturally allows defects to form at the end of inflation. The correlation length, which determines the number density of the defects, is related to the mean size of bubbles when they collide. This mechanism allows a natural combination of inflation and large scale structure via cosmic strings.

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S.

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band.

Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.

We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the η-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kähler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third "driving" field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the "standard" hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (Winf = 0) during inflation. Quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.

Estimating the Parameters of the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.

1979-01-01

For some situations the beta-binomial distribution might be used to describe the marginal distribution of test scores for a particular population of examinees. Several different methods of approximating the maximum likelihood estimate were investigated, and it was found that the Newton-Raphson method should be used when it yields admissable…

Stochastic effects in hybrid inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Jérôme; Vennin, Vincent

2012-02-01

Hybrid inflation is a two-field model where inflation ends due to an instability. In the neighborhood of the instability point, the potential is very flat and the quantum fluctuations dominate over the classical motion of the inflaton and waterfall fields. In this article, we study this regime in the framework of stochastic inflation. We numerically solve the two coupled Langevin equations controlling the evolution of the fields and compute the probability distributions of the total number of e-folds and of the inflation exit point. Then, we discuss the physical consequences of our results, in particular, the question of how the quantum diffusion can affect the observable predictions of hybrid inflation.

Bounce inflation cosmology with Standard Model Higgs boson

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Youping; Huang, Fa Peng; Zhang, Xinmin

It is of great interest to connect cosmology in the early universe to the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we try to construct a bounce inflation model with the standard model Higgs boson, where the one loop correction is taken into account in the effective potential of Higgs field. In this model, a Galileon term has been introduced to eliminate the ghost mode when bounce happens. Moreover, due to the fact that the Fermion loop correction can make part of the Higgs potential negative, one naturally obtains a large equation of state(EoS) parameter in the contracting phase,more » which can eliminate the anisotropy problem. After the bounce, the model can drive the universe into the standard higgs inflation phase, which can generate nearly scale-invariant power spectrum.« less

Inflatable robotics for planetary applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Jack A.

2001-01-01

Space Inflatable vehicles have been finding popularity in recent years for applications as varied as spacecraft antennas, space-based telescopes, solar sails, and manned habitats [1]. Another branch of space inflatable technology has also considered developing ambient gasfilled, solar balloons for Mars as well as ambient gasfilled inflatable rovers [2]. More recently, some other intriguing space-inflatable vehicles have been proposed for the gas planets and Pluto, as well as for Saturn's moon, Titan, Neptune's moon, Triton, and Jupiter's moon, Io [3].

An integrated model for detecting significant chromatin interactions from high-resolution Hi-C data

PubMed Central

Carty, Mark; Zamparo, Lee; Sahin, Merve; González, Alvaro; Pelossof, Raphael; Elemento, Olivier; Leslie, Christina S.

2017-01-01

Here we present HiC-DC, a principled method to estimate the statistical significance (P values) of chromatin interactions from Hi-C experiments. HiC-DC uses hurdle negative binomial regression account for systematic sources of variation in Hi-C read counts—for example, distance-dependent random polymer ligation and GC content and mappability bias—and model zero inflation and overdispersion. Applied to high-resolution Hi-C data in a lymphoblastoid cell line, HiC-DC detects significant interactions at the sub-topologically associating domain level, identifying potential structural and regulatory interactions supported by CTCF binding sites, DNase accessibility, and/or active histone marks. CTCF-associated interactions are most strongly enriched in the middle genomic distance range (∼700 kb–1.5 Mb), while interactions involving actively marked DNase accessible elements are enriched both at short (<500 kb) and longer (>1.5 Mb) genomic distances. There is a striking enrichment of longer-range interactions connecting replication-dependent histone genes on chromosome 6, potentially representing the chromatin architecture at the histone locus body. PMID:28513628

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; Brody, Samuel D; Peacock, Walter Gillis; Vedlitz, Arnold; Grover, Himanshu

2008-12-01

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.

Curiosity Killed the Cocktail? Curiosity, Sensation Seeking, and Alcohol-related Problems in College Women

PubMed Central

Lindgren, Kristen P.; Mullins, Peter M.; Neighbors, Clayton; Blayney, Jessica A.

2010-01-01

Curiosity, composed of two factors: exploration and absorption, has been previously associated with life satisfaction, life meaningfulness, and enhanced positive affect. It also shares some overlap with sensation seeking, which has been linked to alcohol use and other addictive behaviors. The present research explored the association between curiosity and college women’s problematic drinking in the context of sensation seeking. Participants (79 women) completed questionnaires measuring curiosity, sensation seeking, alcohol consumption, and consequences related to alcohol consumption. A zero-inflated negative binomial model indicated that curiosity and sensation seeking accounted for unique variance in alcohol-related problems after controlling for drinking. The curiosity factors had opposing relationships to alcohol-related problems: higher scores on absorption were associated with more alcohol related problems whereas higher scores on exploration were associated with fewer alcohol related problems. Should findings be replicated, the curiosity factors may represent additional prevention and intervention targets. Future directions for research about curiosity and drinking and for the inclusion of positive psychology constructs in addictive behaviors research are discussed. PMID:20080358

Degravitation, inflation and the cosmological constant as an afterglow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Subodh P.

2009-01-01

In this report, we adopt the phenomenological approach of taking the degravitation paradigm seriously as a consistent modification of gravity in the IR, and investigate its consequences for various cosmological situations. We motivate degravitation — where Netwon's constant is promoted to a scale dependent filter function — as arising from either a small (resonant) mass for the graviton, or as an effect in semi-classical gravity. After addressing how the Bianchi identities are to be satisfied in such a set up, we turn our attention towards the cosmological consequences of degravitation. By considering the example filter function corresponding to a resonantly massive graviton (with a filter scale larger than the present horizon scale), we show that slow roll inflation, hybrid inflation and old inflation remain quantitatively unchanged. We also find that the degravitation mechanism inherits a memory of past energy densities in the present epoch in such a way that is likely significant for present cosmological evolution. For example, if the universe underwent inflation in the past due to it having tunneled out of some false vacuum, we find that degravitation implies a remnant `afterglow' cosmological constant, whose scale immediately afterwards is parametrically suppressed by the filter scale (L) in Planck units Λ ~ l2pl/L2. We discuss circumstances through which this scenario reasonably yields the presently observed value for Λ ~ O(10-120). We also find that in a universe still currently trapped in some false vacuum state, resonance graviton models of degravitation only degravitate initially Planck or GUT scale energy densities down to the presently observed value over timescales comparable to the filter scale. We argue that different functional forms for the filter function will yield similar conclusions. In this way, we argue that although the degravitation models we study have the potential to explain why the cosmological constant is not large in addition to

Self-unitarization of New Higgs Inflation and compatibility with Planck and BICEP2 data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Germani, Cristiano; Wintergerst, Nico; Watanabe, Yuki, E-mail: cristiano.germani@lmu.de, E-mail: watanabe@resceu.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: nico.wintergerst@physik.lmu.de

2014-12-01

In this paper we show that the Germani-Kehagias model of Higgs inflation (or New Higgs Inflation), where the Higgs boson is kinetically non-minimally coupled to the Einstein tensor is in perfect compatibility with the latest Planck and BICEP2 data. Moreover, we show that the tension between the Planck and BICEP2 data can be relieved within the New Higgs inflation scenario by a negative running of the spectral index. Regarding the unitarity of the model, we argue that it is unitary throughout the evolution of the Universe. Weak couplings in the Higgs-Higgs and Higgs-graviton sectors are provided by a large backgroundmore » dependent cut-off scale during inflation. In the same regime, the W and Z gauge bosons acquire a very large mass, thus decouple. On the other hand, if they are also non-minimally coupled to the Higgs boson, their effective masses can be enormously reduced. In this case, the W and Z bosons are no longer decoupled. After inflation, the New Higgs model is well approximated by a quartic Galileon with a renormalizable potential. We argue that this can unitarily create the right conditions for inflation to eventually start.« less

Solving the problem of negative populations in approximate accelerated stochastic simulations using the representative reaction approach.

PubMed

Kadam, Shantanu; Vanka, Kumar

2013-02-15

Methods based on the stochastic formulation of chemical kinetics have the potential to accurately reproduce the dynamical behavior of various biochemical systems of interest. However, the computational expense makes them impractical for the study of real systems. Attempts to render these methods practical have led to the development of accelerated methods, where the reaction numbers are modeled by Poisson random numbers. However, for certain systems, such methods give rise to physically unrealistic negative numbers for species populations. The methods which make use of binomial variables, in place of Poisson random numbers, have since become popular, and have been partially successful in addressing this problem. In this manuscript, the development of two new computational methods, based on the representative reaction approach (RRA), has been discussed. The new methods endeavor to solve the problem of negative numbers, by making use of tools like the stochastic simulation algorithm and the binomial method, in conjunction with the RRA. It is found that these newly developed methods perform better than other binomial methods used for stochastic simulations, in resolving the problem of negative populations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance.

PubMed

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

Yes, the GIGP Really Does Work--And Is Workable!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burrell, Quentin L.; Fenton, Michael R.

1993-01-01

Discusses the generalized inverse Gaussian-Poisson (GIGP) process for informetric modeling. Negative binomial distribution is discussed, construction of the GIGP process is explained, zero-truncated GIGP is considered, and applications of the process with journals, library circulation statistics, and database index terms are described. (50…

12 CFR 19.240 - Inflation adjustments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 19.240 Section 19.240... PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 19.240 Inflation adjustments. (a) The maximum amount... Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (28 U.S.C. 2461 note) as follows: ER10NO08.001 (b) The...

Delayed inflation triggerd by regional earthquakes at Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupi, M.; Frehner, M.; Weis, P.; Skelton, A.; Saenger, E.; Tisato, N.; Geiger, S.; Chiodini, G.; Driesner, T.

2017-12-01

What if earthquakes were affecting volcanoes more than we currently think because their effects are not immediately visible? Earthquake-volcano interactions promoted by dynamic and static stresses are considered seldom and difficult-to-capture geological processes. The Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, is one of the best-monitored volcanic systems worldwide. We use a 70-years long time series to suggest a provocative and intriguing hypothesis to explain bradyseismic activity at Campi Flegrei. By comparing ground elevation time series at Campi Flegrei with seismic catalogues we show that uplift events at Campi Flegrei follow within 1.2 years large regional earthquakes. The accelerated uplifts are over-imposed on long-term inflation or deflation trends. Such association is supported by (yet-non definitive) binomial tests. Due to the non-definitive nature of the statistical tests we carried on additional numerical tests. We simulate the propagation of elastic waves showing that passing body waves impose high dynamic strains at the roof of the magmatic reservoir of the Campi Flegrei at about 7 km depth. Such elevated dynamic strains promote a brittle behaviour in an otherwise ductile material (i.e. the crystal mush) at near-lithostatic conditions. Such failure allows magma and exsolved volatiles to be released from the magmatic reservoir. The fluids would ascend through a plastic zone above the magmatic reservoir and inject into the shallow hydrothermal system where they phase-separate and expand causing a delayed effect, i.e. inflation. This mechanism and the associated inherent uncertainties require further investigations. However, the new concept already implies that geological processes triggered by passing seismic waves may become apparent several months after the triggering earthquake.

[Effect of sustained inflation with different degrees of negative pressure for sputum aspiration in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome on lung recruitment].

PubMed

Huang, Xia; Cui, Jiwen

2015-07-01

To investigate the effect of different degrees of pressure of sustained inflation (SI) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after lung recruitment as the result of different negative pressure for sputum aspiration. A prospective single-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted. The factorial analysis of variance was adopted. 150 patients with ARDS admitted to the emergency intensive care unit (ICU) of Chongqing Three Gorges Central Hospital from January 2012 to December 2014 were enrolled, and they were randomly divided into S1, S2, S3 group, with 50 patients in each group, suction pressure varying from 150, 175, to 200 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) was respectively used in each group. Then the patients of each group were randomly subdivided into five subgroups of P0, P1, P2, P3, P4, with 10 patients in each group, and 0, 30, 35, 40, and 45 cmH2O (1 cmH2O=0.098 kPa) were used for control pulmonary inflation pressure, respectively. The respiratory mechanics and the hemodynamic parameters were recorded, and they were compared before and after the sputum aspiration as well as lung recruitment with sustained inflation. The lung recruitment volume (mL: 87.56±28.47 vs. 109.38±34.63, t=3.573, P=0.001) and lung static compliance [Cst (mL/cmH2O): 27.69±13.25 vs. 35.87±17.47, t=2.814, P=0.004] after sputum aspiration in the 150 patients were significantly lower than those before the sputum aspiration, and peak airway pressure [PIP (cmH2O): 24.16±8.28 vs. 18.63±6.67, t=2.957, P=0.005], airway plateau pressure [Pplat (cmH2O): 21.28±9.14 vs. 17.47±7.26, t=2.089, P=0.032], and mean airway pressure [Pm (cmH2O): 13.26±4.65 vs. 10.41±3.54, t=3.271, P=0.001] were significantly higher than those before the treatment. There were no significant differences in the lung recruitment volume, Cst, PIP, Pplat and Pm between groups with different negative pressure for sputum aspiration (F value was 0.809, 0.986, 1.121, 0.910, 1.043, and P value was 0.452, 0

Aerocapture Inflatable Decelerator (AID)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reza, Sajjad

2007-01-01

Forward Attached Inflatable Decelerators, more commonly known as inflatable aeroshells, provide an effective, cost efficient means of decelerating spacecrafts by using atmospheric drag for aerocapture or planetary entry instead of conventional liquid propulsion deceleration systems. Entry into planetary atmospheres results in significant heating and aerodynamic pressures which stress aeroshell systems to their useful limits. Incorporation of lightweight inflatable decelerator surfaces with increased surface-area footprints provides the opportunity to reduce heat flux and induced temperatures, while increasing the payload mass fraction. Furthermore, inflatable aeroshell decelerators provide the needed deceleration at considerably higher altitudes and Mach numbers when compared with conventional rigid aeroshell entry systems. Inflatable aeroshells also provide for stowage in a compact space, with subsequent deployment of a large-area, lightweight heatshield to survive entry heating. Use of a deployable heatshield decelerator not only enables an increase in the spacecraft payload mass fraction and but may also eliminate the need for a spacecraft backshell and cruise stage. This document is the viewgraph slides for the paper's presentation.

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

No-scale ripple inflation revisited

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tianjun; Li, Zhijin; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V., E-mail: tli@itp.ac.cn, E-mail: lizhijin@physics.tamu.edu, E-mail: dimitri@physics.tamu.edu

We revisit the no-scale ripple inflation model, where no-scale supergravity is modified by an additional term for the inflaton field in the Kähler potential. This term not only breaks one SU(N,1) symmetry explicitly, but also plays an important role for inflation. We generalize the superpotential in the no-scale ripple inflation model slightly. There exists a discrete Z{sub 2} symmetry/parity in the scalar potential in general, which can be preserved or violated by the non-canonical nomalized inflaton kinetic term. Thus, there are three inflation paths: one parity invariant path, and the left and right paths for parity violating scenario. We showmore » that the inflations along the parity invariant path and right path are consistent with the Planck results. However, the gavitino mass for the parity invariant path is so large that the inflation results will be invalid if we consider the inflaton supersymmetry breaking soft mass term. Thus, only the inflation along the right path gives the correct and consistent results. Notably, the tensor-to-scalar ratio in such case can be large, with a value around 0.05, which may be probed by the future Planck experiment.« less

Testing Cosmic Inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chuss, David

2010-01-01

The Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) has provided a wealth of information about the history and physics of the early Universe. Much progress has been made on uncovering the emerging Standard Model of Cosmology by such experiments as COBE and WMAP, and ESA's Planck Surveyor will likely increase our knowledge even more. Despite the success of this model, mysteries remain. Currently understood physics does not offer a compelling explanation for the homogeneity, flatness, and the origin of structure in the Universe. Cosmic Inflation, a brief epoch of exponential expansion, has been posted to explain these observations. If inflation is a reality, it is expected to produce a background spectrum of gravitational waves that will leave a small polarized imprint on the CMB. Discovery of this signal would give the first direct evidence for inflation and provide a window into physics at scales beyond those accessible to terrestrial particle accelerators. I will briefly review aspects of the Standard Model of Cosmology and discuss our current efforts to design and deploy experiments to measure the polarization of the CMB with the precision required to test inflation.

First-order inflation. [in cosmology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, Michael S.

1992-01-01

I discuss the most recent model of inflation. In first-order inflation the inflationary epoch is associated with a first-order phase transition, with the most likely candidate being GUT symmetry breaking. The transition from the false-vacuum inflationary phase to the true-vacuum radiation-dominated phase proceeds through the nucleation and percolation of true-vacuum bubbles. The first successful and simplest model of first-order inflation, extended inflation, is discussed in some detail: evolution of the cosmic-scale factor, reheating, density perturbations, and the production of gravitational waves both from quantum fluctuations and bubble collisions. Particular attention is paid to the most critical issue in any model of first-order inflation: the requirements on the nucleation rate to ensure a graceful transition from the inflationary phase to the radiation-dominated phase.

Microwave background anisotropies in quasiopen inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier

1999-10-01

Quasiopenness seems to be generic to multifield models of single-bubble open inflation. Instead of producing infinite open universes, these models actually produce an ensemble of very large but finite inflating islands. In this paper we study the possible constraints from CMB anisotropies on existing models of open inflation. The effect of supercurvature anisotropies combined with the quasiopenness of the inflating regions make some models incompatible with observations, and severely reduces the parameter space of others. Supernatural open inflation and the uncoupled two-field model seem to be ruled out due to these constraints for values of Ω0<~0.98. Others, such as the open hybrid inflation model with suitable parameters for the slow roll potential can be made compatible with observations.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-06-10

STS077-705-051 (20 May 1996) --- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour and its subsequent inflation process, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload is backdropped over mountains. The view was photographed with a handheld 70mm camera during the first full day of orbital operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-05-20

STS077-150-010 (20 May 1996) --- Soon after leaving the cargo bay of the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload goes through its inflation process, backdropped over clouds. The view was photographed with a large format still camera on the first full day of in-space operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

Cosmological perturbations and noncommutative tachyon inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu Daojun; Li Xinzhou

2004-12-15

The motivation for studying the rolling tachyon and noncommutative inflation comes from string theory. In the tachyon inflation scenario, metric perturbations are created by tachyon field fluctuations during inflation. We drive the exact mode equation for scalar perturbations of the metric and investigate the cosmological perturbations in the commutative and noncommutative inflationary spacetime driven by the tachyon field which have a Born-Infeld Lagrangian. Although at lowest order the predictions of tachyon inflation are no different than those from standard slow-roll inflation, due to the modified inflationary dynamics there exists modifications to the power spectra of fluctuations generated during inflation. Inmore » the noncommutative tachyon inflation scenario, the stringy noncommutativity of spacetime results in corrections to the primordial power spectrum that lead to a spectral index that is greater than 1 on large scales and less than 1 on small scales as the first-year results of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe indicate.« less

Risk factors related to Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats.

PubMed

Deng, Huifang; Dam-Deisz, Cecile; Luttikholt, Saskia; Maas, Miriam; Nielen, Mirjam; Swart, Arno; Vellema, Piet; van der Giessen, Joke; Opsteegh, Marieke

2016-02-01

Toxoplasma gondii can cause disease in goats, but also has impact on human health through food-borne transmission. Our aims were to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats and to identify the risk factors related to T. gondii seroprevalence. Fifty-two out of ninety approached farmers with indoor-kept goats (58%) participated by answering a standardized questionnaire and contributing 32 goat blood samples each. Serum samples were tested for T. gondii SAG1 antibodies by ELISA and results showed that the frequency distribution of the log10-transformed OD-values fitted well with a binary mixture of a shifted gamma and a shifted reflected gamma distribution. The overall animal seroprevalence was 13.3% (95% CI: 11.7–14.9%), and at least one seropositive animal was found on 61.5% (95% CI: 48.3–74.7%) of the farms. To evaluate potential risk factors on herd level, three modeling strategies (Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated) were compared. The negative binomial model fitted the data best with the number of cats (1–4 cats: IR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1–6.5; > = 5 cats:IR: 14.2, 95% CI: 3.9–51.1) and mean animal age (IR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1–2.1) related to herd positivity. In conclusion, the ELISA test was 100% sensitive and specific based on binary mixture analysis. T. gondii infection is prevalent in indoor housed Dutch dairy goats but at a lower overall animal level seroprevalence than outdoor farmed goats in other European countries, and cat exposure is an important risk factor.

I Remember You: Independence and the Binomial Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Douglas W.; Rockhill, Beverly

2006-01-01

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

Attachment device for an inflatable protective cushion

DOEpatents

Nelsen, J.M.; Luna, D.A.; Gwinn, K.W.

1997-11-18

An inflatable cushion assembly for use with an inflator comprises an inflatable cushion having an inner surface, outer surface, and at least one protrusion extending from one of the inner or outer surfaces. The inflatable cushion defines an opening between the inner surface and the outer surface for receiving the inflator. An attachment member contacts the one of the inner or outer surfaces adjacent the opening and includes a groove for receiving the protrusion, the attachment member securing the inflator within the opening. 22 figs.

Attachment device for an inflatable protective cushion

DOEpatents

Nelsen, J.M.; Luna, D.A.; Gwinn, K.W.

1998-12-08

An inflatable cushion assembly for use with an inflator comprises an inflatable cushion having an inner surface, outer surface, and at least one protrusion extending from one of the inner or outer surfaces. The inflatable cushion defines an opening between the inner surface and the outer surface for receiving the inflator. An attachment member contacts the one of the inner or outer surfaces adjacent the opening and includes a groove for receiving the protrusion, the attachment member securing the inflator within the opening. 22 figs.

Enumerative and binomial sampling plans for citrus mealybug (Homoptera: pseudococcidae) in citrus groves.

PubMed

Martínez-Ferrer, María Teresa; Ripollés, José Luís; Garcia-Marí, Ferran

2006-06-01

The spatial distribution of the citrus mealybug, Planococcus citri (Risso) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae), was studied in citrus groves in northeastern Spain. Constant precision sampling plans were designed for all developmental stages of citrus mealybug under the fruit calyx, for late stages on fruit, and for females on trunks and main branches; more than 66, 286, and 101 data sets, respectively, were collected from nine commercial fields during 1992-1998. Dispersion parameters were determined using Taylor's power law, giving aggregated spatial patterns for citrus mealybug populations in three locations of the tree sampled. A significant relationship between the number of insects per organ and the percentage of occupied organs was established using either Wilson and Room's binomial model or Kono and Sugino's empirical formula. Constant precision (E = 0.25) sampling plans (i.e., enumerative plans) for estimating mean densities were developed using Green's equation and the two binomial models. For making management decisions, enumerative counts may be less labor-intensive than binomial sampling. Therefore, we recommend enumerative sampling plans for the use in an integrated pest management program in citrus. Required sample sizes for the range of population densities near current management thresholds, in the three plant locations calyx, fruit, and trunk were 50, 110-330, and 30, respectively. Binomial sampling, especially the empirical model, required a higher sample size to achieve equivalent levels of precision.

The Effects of Inflation and Pricing Policies on College Enrollments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ostar, Allan W.

Some of the effects of inflation and pricing policies on college costs are discussed, and it is shown that rising college costs have a negative effect upon student opportunity and access. Continual escalation of tuition and fees can lead to a shrinking of the higher education enterprise. Federal efforts (and state efforts to the extent that they…

Inflation at the electroweak scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knox, Lloyd; Turner, Michael S.

1993-01-01

We present a model for slow-rollover inflation where the vacuum energy that drives inflation is of the order of G(F) exp -2; unlike most models, the conversion of vacuum energy to radiation ('reheating') is moderately efficient. The scalar field responsible for inflation is a standard-model singlet, develops a vacuum expectation value of 4 x 10 exp 6 GeV, has a mass of about 1 GeV, and can play a role in electroweak phenomena. We also discuss models where the energy scale of inflation is somewhat larger, but still well below the unification scale.

Advanced Structural and Inflatable Hybrid Spacecraft Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, William C. (Inventor); delaFuente, Horacio M. (Inventor); Edeen, Gregg A. (Inventor); Kennedy, Kriss J. (Inventor); Lester, James D. (Inventor); Gupta, Shalini (Inventor); Hess, Linda F. (Inventor); Lin, Chin H. (Inventor); Malecki, Richard H. (Inventor); Raboin, Jasen L. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

An inflatable module comprising a structural core and an inflatable shell, wherein the inflatable shell is sealingly attached to the structural core. In its launch configuration, the wall thickness of the inflatable shell is collapsed by vacuum. Also in this configuration, the inflatable shell is collapsed and efficiently folded around the structural core. Upon deployment, the wall thickness of the inflatable shell is inflated; whereby the inflatable shell itself, is thereby inflated around the structural core, defining therein a large enclosed volume. A plurality of removable shelves are arranged interior to the structural core in the launch configuration. The structural core also includes at least one longeron that, in conjunction with the shelves, primarily constitute the rigid, strong, and lightweight load-bearing structure of the module during launch. The removable shelves are detachable from their arrangement in the launch configuration so that, when the module is in its deployed configuration and launch loads no longer exist, the shelves can be rearranged to provide a module interior arrangement suitable for human habitation and work. In the preferred embodiment, to provide efficiency in structural load paths and attachments, the shape of the inflatable shell is a cylinder with semi-toroidal ends.

Predictors and moderators of outcomes of HIV/STD sex risk reduction interventions in substance abuse treatment programs: a pooled analysis of two randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Crits-Christoph, Paul; Gallop, Robert; Sadicario, Jaclyn S; Markell, Hannah M; Calsyn, Donald A; Tang, Wan; He, Hua; Tu, Xin; Woody, George

2014-01-16

The objective of the current study was to examine predictors and moderators of response to two HIV sexual risk interventions of different content and duration for individuals in substance abuse treatment programs. Participants were recruited from community drug treatment programs participating in the National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network (CTN). Data were pooled from two parallel randomized controlled CTN studies (one with men and one with women) each examining the impact of a multi-session motivational and skills training program, in comparison to a single-session HIV education intervention, on the degree of reduction in unprotected sex from baseline to 3- and 6- month follow-ups. The findings were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. Severity of drug use (p < .01), gender (p < .001), and age (p < .001) were significant main effect predictors of number of unprotected sexual occasions (USOs) at follow-up in the non-zero portion of the ZINB model (men, younger participants, and those with greater severity of drug/alcohol abuse have more USOs). Monogamous relationship status (p < .001) and race/ethnicity (p < .001) were significant predictors of having at least one USO vs. none (monogamous individuals and African Americans were more likely to have at least one USO). Significant moderators of intervention effectiveness included recent sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol (p < .01 in non-zero portion of model), duration of abuse of primary drug (p < .05 in non-zero portion of model), and Hispanic ethnicity (p < .01 in the zero portion, p < .05 in the non-zero portion of model). These predictor and moderator findings point to ways in which patients may be selected for the different HIV sexual risk reduction interventions and suggest potential avenues for further development of the interventions for increasing their effectiveness within certain subgroups.

The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Empirical evidence for the newest EU countries.

PubMed

Viorica, Daniela; Jemna, Danut; Pintilescu, Carmen; Asandului, Mircea

2014-01-01

The objective of this paper is to verify the hypotheses presented in the literature on the causal relationship between inflation and its uncertainty, for the newest EU countries. To ensure the robustness of the results, in the study four models for inflation uncertainty are estimated in parallel: ARCH (1), GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1,1) and PARCH (1,1,1). The Granger method is used to test the causality between two variables. The working hypothesis is that groups of countries with a similar political and economic background in 1990 and are likely to be characterized by the same causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Empirical results partially confirm this hypothesis. C22, E31, E37.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-06-10

STS077-705-012 (20 May 1996) --- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) portion of the Spartan 207 payload is backdropped over Earth as it continues its inflation process. The view was photographed with a handheld 70mm camera during the first full day of orbital operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-06-10

STS077-705-016 (20 May 1996) --- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) part of the Spartan 207 payload nears completion of its inflation process over California?s Pacific Coast near Santa Barbara and Point Conception. The view was photographed with a handheld 70mm camera during the first full day of orbital operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-05-20

STS077-150-044 (20 May 1996) --- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload is backdropped over the Grand Canyon. After the IAE completed its inflation process in free-flight, this view was photographed with a large format still camera. The activity came on the first full day of in-space operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-06-10

STS077-705-004 (20 May 1996) --- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) portion of the Spartan 207 payload begins to inflate, backdropped against clouds over the Pacific Ocean. The view was photographed with a handheld 70mm camera during the first full day of orbital operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-05-20

STS077-150-022 (20 May 1996) --- After leaving the cargo bay of the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload goes through the final stages its inflation process, backdropped over clouds and blue water. The view was photographed with a large format still camera on the first full day of in-space operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.

2010-02-10

We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the eta-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kaehler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third 'driving' field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the 'standard' hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (W{sub inf} = 0) during inflation. While the symmetries of the Kaehler potential ensure a flat inflatonmore » potential at tree-level, quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.« less

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials.

PubMed

Postler, Thomas S; Clawson, Anna N; Amarasinghe, Gaya K; Basler, Christopher F; Bavari, Sbina; Benko, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S; Collins, Peter L; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L; Dietzgen, Ralf G; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M; Easton, Andrew J; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A M; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A; Leroy, Eric M; Lukashevich, Igor S; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R; Netesov, Sergey V; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L; Payne, Susan L; PaWeska, Janusz T; Peters, Clarence J; Radoshitzky, Sheli R; Rima, Bertus K; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J; Stenglein, Mark D; Stone, David M; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E; Zerbini, F Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H

2017-05-01

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Society of Systematic Biologists 2016. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

Thermalized axion inflation: Natural and monomial inflation with small r

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Ricardo Z.; Notari, Alessio

2018-03-01

A safe way to reheat the Universe, in models of natural and quadratic inflation, is through shift symmetric couplings between the inflaton ϕ and the Standard Model (SM), since they do not generate loop corrections to the potential V (ϕ ). We consider such a coupling to SM gauge fields, of the form ϕ F F ˜/f , with sub-Planckian f . In this case, gauge fields can be exponentially produced already during inflation and thermalize via interactions with charged particles, as pointed out in previous work. This can lead to a plasma of temperature T during inflation, and the thermal masses g T of the gauge bosons can equilibrate the system. In addition, inflaton perturbations δ ϕ can also have a thermal spectrum if they have sufficiently large cross sections with the plasma. In this case, inflationary predictions are strongly modified: (1) scalar perturbations are thermal, and so enhanced over the vacuum, leading to a generic way to suppress the tensor-to-scalar ratio r ; (2) the spectral index is ns-1 =η -4 ɛ . After presenting the relevant conditions for thermalization, we show that thermalized natural and monomial models of inflation agree with present observations and have r ≈10-3-10-2, which is within reach of next generation CMB experiments.

Primordial anisotropies in gauged hybrid inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbar Abolhasani, Ali; Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan

2014-05-01

We study primordial anisotropies generated in the model of gauged hybrid inflation in which the complex waterfall field is charged under a U(1)gauge field. Primordial anisotropies are generated either actively during inflation or from inhomogeneities modulating the surface of end of inflation during waterfall transition. We present a consistent δN mechanism to calculate the anisotropic power spectrum and bispectrum. We show that the primordial anisotropies generated at the surface of end of inflation do not depend on the number of e-folds and therefore do not produce dangerously large anisotropies associated with the IR modes. Furthermore, one can find the parameter space that the anisotropies generated from the surface of end of inflation cancel the anisotropies generated during inflation, therefore relaxing the constrains on model parameters imposed from IR anisotropies. We also show that the gauge field fluctuations induce a red-tilted power spectrum so the averaged power spectrum from the gauge field can change the total power spectrum from blue to red. Therefore, hybrid inflation, once gauged under a U(1) field, can be consistent with the cosmological observations.

Nonthermal gravitino production in tribrid inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik

2015-10-01

We investigate nonthermal gravitino production after tribrid inflation in supergravity, which is a variant of supersymmetric hybrid inflation where three fields are involved in the inflationary model and where the inflaton field resides in the matter sector of the theory. In contrast to conventional supersymmetric hybrid inflation, where nonthermal gravitino production imposes severe constraints on the inflationary model, we find that the "nonthermal gravitino problem" is generically absent in models of tribrid inflation, mainly due to two effects: (i) With the inflaton in tribrid inflation (after inflation) being lighter than the waterfall field, the latter has a second decay channel with a much larger rate than for the decay into gravitinos. This reduces the branching ratio for the decay of the waterfall field into gravitinos. (ii) The inflaton generically decays later than the waterfall field, and it does not produce gravitinos when it decays. This leads to a dilution of the gravitino population from the decays of the waterfall field. The combination of both effects generically leads to a strongly reduced gravitino production in tribrid inflation.

Structurally efficient inflatable protective device

DOEpatents

Nelsen, James M.; Whinery, Larry D.; Gwinn, Kenneth W.; McBride, Donald D.; Luna, Daniel A.; Holder, Joseph P.; Bliton, Richard J.

1997-01-01

An apparatus and method for making a low cost, self-venting, inflatable protective cushion of simple and structurally efficient design with a shape and construction that optimizes the cushion's ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed which includes a sheet defined by at least one fold line and a plurality of flap portions, each flap portion having a base edge corresponding to a fold line and at least two side edges each extending outwardly from a base edge and ultimately converging to meet each other, the flap portions being folded at the fold line(s) and being joined at corresponding side edges to define an inflatable chamber. The inflatable protective cushion and method for making same may further include a lightweight, low permeability, fabric that optimizes the cushion's ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed and minimizes the packed volume of the cushion when stored.

Structurally efficient inflatable protective device

DOEpatents

Nelsen, James M.; Whinery, Larry D.; Gwinn, Kenneth W.; McBride, Donald D.; Luna, Daniel A.; Holder, Joseph P.; Bliton, Richard J.

1996-01-01

An apparatus and method for making a low cost, self-venting, inflatable protective cushion of simple and structurally efficient design with a shape and construction that optimizes the cushion's ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed which includes a sheet defined by at least one fold line and a plurality of flap portions, each flap portion having a base edge corresponding to a fold line and at least two side edges each extending outwardly from a base edge and ultimately converging to meet each other, the flap portions being folded at the fold line(s) and being Joined at corresponding side edges to define an inflatable chamber. The inflatable protective cushion and method for making same may further include a lightweight, low permeability, fabric that optimizes the cushion's ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed and minimizes the packed volume of the cushion when stored.

Structurally efficient inflatable protective device

DOEpatents

Nelsen, James M.; Whinery, Larry D.; Gwinn, Kenneth W.; McBride, Donald D.; Luna, Daniel A.; Holder, Joseph P.; Bliton, Richard J.

1996-01-01

An apparatus and method for making a low cost, self-venting, inflatable protective cushion of simple and structurally efficient design with a shape and construction that optimizes the cushion's ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed which includes a sheet defined by at least one fold line and a plurality of flap portions, each flap portion having a base edge corresponding to a fold line and at least two side edges each extending outwardly from a base edge and ultimately converging to meet each other, the flap portions being folded at the fold line(s) and being joined at corresponding side edges to define an inflatable chamber. The inflatable protective cushion and method for making same may further include a lightweight, low permeability, fabric that optimizes the cushion's ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed and minimizes the packed volume of the cushion when stored.

Modular invariant inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Nitta, Daisuke; Urakawa, Yuko

2016-08-08

Modular invariance is a striking symmetry in string theory, which may keep stringy corrections under control. In this paper, we investigate a phenomenological consequence of the modular invariance, assuming that this symmetry is preserved as well as in a four dimensional (4D) low energy effective field theory. As a concrete setup, we consider a modulus field T whose contribution in the 4D effective field theory remains invariant under the modular transformation and study inflation drived by T. The modular invariance restricts a possible form of the scalar potenntial. As a result, large field models of inflation are hardly realized. Meanwhile,more » a small field model of inflation can be still accomodated in this restricted setup. The scalar potential traced during the slow-roll inflation mimics the hilltop potential V{sub ht}, but it also has a non-negligible deviation from V{sub ht}. Detecting the primordial gravitational waves predicted in this model is rather challenging. Yet, we argue that it may be still possible to falsify this model by combining the information in the reheating process which can be determined self-completely in this setup.« less

Solar San Diego: The Impact of Binomial Rate Structures on Real PV Systems; Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

VanGeet, O.; Brown, E.; Blair, T.

2008-05-01

There is confusion in the marketplace regarding the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on the user's actual electricity bill under California Net Energy Metering, particularly with binomial tariffs (those that include both demand and energy charges) and time-of-use (TOU) rate structures. The City of San Diego has extensive real-time electrical metering on most of its buildings and PV systems, with interval data for overall consumption and PV electrical production available for multiple years. This paper uses 2007 PV-system data from two city facilities to illustrate the impacts of binomial rate designs. The analysis will determine the energy and demand savingsmore » that the PV systems are achieving relative to the absence of systems. A financial analysis of PV-system performance under various rate structures is presented. The data revealed that actual demand and energy use benefits of binomial tariffs increase in summer months, when solar resources allow for maximized electricity production. In a binomial tariff system, varying on- and semi-peak times can result in approximately $1,100 change in demand charges per month over not having a PV system in place, an approximate 30% cost savings. The PV systems are also shown to have a 30%-50% reduction in facility energy charges in 2007.« less

Inflatable antennas for microwave pwoer transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Geoff

1989-01-01

Operational phase of the inflatable radiator; inflatable space structures; advantages; inflated thin-film satellites; antenna configuration; 3 meter diameter test paraboloid (HAIR program); and weight breakdown for the 100 meter diameter reflector are outlined. This presentation is represented by viewgraphs only.

46 CFR 169.849 - Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts. The number and location of such placards for a particular vessel shall be...

46 CFR 169.849 - Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts. The number and location of such placards for a particular vessel shall be...

46 CFR 169.849 - Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts. The number and location of such placards for a particular vessel shall be...

46 CFR 169.849 - Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts. The number and location of such placards for a particular vessel shall be...

The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty. Empirical Evidence for the Newest EU Countries

PubMed Central

Viorica, Daniela; Jemna, Danut; Pintilescu, Carmen; Asandului, Mircea

2014-01-01

The objective of this paper is to verify the hypotheses presented in the literature on the causal relationship between inflation and its uncertainty, for the newest EU countries. To ensure the robustness of the results, in the study four models for inflation uncertainty are estimated in parallel: ARCH (1), GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1,1) and PARCH (1,1,1). The Granger method is used to test the causality between two variables. The working hypothesis is that groups of countries with a similar political and economic background in 1990 and are likely to be characterized by the same causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Empirical results partially confirm this hypothesis. Jel Classification C22, E31, E37. PMID:24633073

Ascaris and hookworm transmission in preschool children from rural Panama: role of yard environment, soil eggs/larvae and hygiene and play behaviours.

PubMed

Krause, Rachel J; Koski, Kristine G; Pons, Emérita; Sandoval, Nidia; Sinisterra, Odalis; Scott, Marilyn E

2015-10-01

This study explored whether the yard environment and child hygiene and play behaviours were associated with presence and intensity of Ascaris and hookworm in preschool children and with eggs and larvae in soil. Data were collected using questionnaires, a visual survey of the yard, soil samples and fecal samples collected at baseline and following re-infection. The presence of eggs/larvae in soil was associated negatively with water storage (eggs) but positively with dogs (eggs) and distance from home to latrine (larvae). Baseline and re-infection prevalences were: hookworm (28.0%, 3.4%); Ascaris (16.9%, 9.5%); Trichuris (0.9%, 0.7%). Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed a higher baseline hookworm infection if yards had eggs or larvae, more vegetation or garbage, and if the child played with soil. Baseline Ascaris was associated with dirt floor, dogs, exposed soil in yard, open defecation and with less time playing outdoors, whereas Ascaris re-infection was associated with water storage, vegetation cover and garbage near the home and not playing with animals. Our results show complex interactions between infection, the yard environment and child behaviours, and indicate that transmission would be reduced if latrines were closer to the home, and if open defecation and water spillage were reduced.

Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

2015-10-01

Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared

Structurally efficient inflatable protective device

DOEpatents

Nelsen, J.M.; Whinery, L.D.; Gwinn, K.W.; McBride, D.D.; Luna, D.A.; Holder, J.P.; Bliton, R.J.

1997-03-04

An apparatus and method are disclosed for making a low cost, self-venting, inflatable protective cushion of simple and structurally efficient design with a shape and construction that optimizes the cushion`s ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed which includes a sheet defined by at least one fold line and a plurality of flap portions, each flap portion having a base edge corresponding to a fold line and at least two side edges each extending outwardly from a base edge and ultimately converging to meet each other, the flap portions being folded at the fold line(s) and being joined at corresponding side edges to define an inflatable chamber. The inflatable protective cushion and method for making same may further include a lightweight, low permeability, fabric that optimizes the cushion`s ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed and minimizes the packed volume of the cushion when stored. 22 figs.

Structurally efficient inflatable protective device

DOEpatents

Nelsen, J.M.; Whinery, L.D.; Gwinn, K.W.; McBride, D.D.; Luna, D.A.; Holder, J.P.; Bliton, R.J.

1996-01-09

An apparatus and method are disclosed for making a low cost, self-venting, inflatable protective cushion of simple and structurally efficient design with a shape and construction that optimizes the cushion`s ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed which includes a sheet defined by at least one fold line and a plurality of flap portions, each flap portion having a base edge corresponding to a fold line and at least two side edges each extending outwardly from a base edge and ultimately converging to meet each other, the flap portions being folded at the fold line(s) and being joined at corresponding side edges to define an inflatable chamber. The inflatable protective cushion and method for making same may further include a lightweight, low permeability, fabric that optimizes the cushion`s ability to withstand inflation pressures and impact when deployed and minimizes the packed volume of the cushion when stored. 22 figs.

Sustained inflation during neonatal resuscitation.

PubMed

Keszler, Martin

2015-04-01

Sustained inflation performed shortly after birth to help clear lung fluid and establish functional residual capacity in preterm infants is gaining popularity, but definitive evidence for its effectiveness is lacking. Although there is a sound physiologic basis for this approach, and much preclinical experimental evidence of effectiveness, the results of recent animal studies and clinical trials have been inconsistent. The most recent data from a multicenter randomized trial suggest a modest benefit of sustained inflation in reducing the need for mechanical ventilation in extremely-low-birth-weight infants. However, the impact may be more modest than earlier retrospective cohort comparisons suggested. The trend toward more airleak and a higher rate of intraventricular hemorrhage is worrisome. Sustained inflation may be ineffective unless some spontaneous respiratory effort is present. Several on-going trials should further clarify the putative benefits of sustained inflation. Delivery room sustained inflation is an attractive concept that holds much promise, but widespread clinical application should await definitive evidence from on-going clinical trials.

Goldstone inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack

2015-10-01

Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.

Inflation from extra dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Janna J.

1995-02-01

A gravity-driven inflation is shown to arise from a simple higher-dimensional universe. In vacuum, the shear of n > 1 contracting dimensions is able to inflate the remaining three spatial dimensions. Said another way, the expansion of the 3-volume is accelerated by the contraction of the n-volume. Upon dimensional reduction, the theory is equivalent to a four-dimensional cosmology with a dynamical Planck mass. A connection can therefore be made to recent examples of inflation powered by a dilaton kinetic energy. Unfortunately, the graceful exit problem encountered in dilaton cosmologies will haunt this cosmology as well.

Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in Ontario: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moineddin, Rahim; Meaney, Christopher; Agha, Mohammad; Zagorski, Brandon; Glazier, Richard Henry

2011-08-19

department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic. The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases. Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department

Plausible double inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holman, Richard; Kolb, Edward W.; Vadas, Sharon L.; Wang, Yun

1991-01-01

It is likely that extended inflation is followed by an epoch of slowroll inflation. Such a sequence of events may lead to a very interesting perturbation spectrum with significant power on the scale of the transition between the extended and slowroll phase, superimposed upon a power-law spectrum with deviations from the Harrison-Zeldovich slope. Normalization of the spectra above and below the transition scale is expected to differ.

Accidental inflation from Kähler uplifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Dayan, Ido; Jing, Shenglin; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens

2014-03-01

We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Käahler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ``left-rolling" ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ``inflation by deflation" (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running α ~ 0.012 and enhanced tensor-to-scalar ratio r ~ 10-5. The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.

46 CFR 169.849 - Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Inspections § 169.849 Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and... determined by the Officer in Charge, Marine Inspection. ...

Fate of inflation and the natural reduction of vacuum energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamichi, Akika; Morikawa, Masahiro

2014-04-01

In the standard cosmology, an artificial fine tuning of the potential is inevitable for vanishing cosmological constant, though slow-rolling uniform scalar field easily causes cosmic inflation. We focus on the general fact that any potential with negative region can temporally halt the cosmic expansion at the end of inflation, where the field tends to diverge. This violent evolution naturally causes particle production and strong instability of the uniform configuration of the fields. Decaying of this uniform scalar field would leave vanishing cosmological constant as well as locally collapsed objects. The universe then continues to evolve into the standard Freedman model. We study the detail of the instability, based on the linear analysis, and the subsequent fate of the scalar field, based on the non-linear numerical analysis. The collapsed scalar field would easily exceed the Kaup limiting mass and forms primordial black holes, which may play an important role in galaxy formation in later stages of cosmic expansion. We systematically describe the above scenario by identifying the scalar field as the boson field condensation (BEC) and the inflation as the process of phase transition of them.

Household Implementation of Smoke-Free Rules in Homes and Cars: A Focus on Adolescent Smoking Behavior and Secondhand Smoke Exposure.

PubMed

Parks, Michael J; Kingsbury, John H; Boyle, Raymond G; Evered, Sharrilyn

2018-01-01

This study addresses the dearth of population-based research on how comprehensive household smoke-free rules (ie, in the home and car) relate to tobacco use and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among adolescents. Analysis of 2014 Minnesota Youth Tobacco Survey. Representative sample of Minnesota youth. A total of 1287 youth who lived with a smoker. Measures included household smoke-free rules (no rules, partial rules-home or car, but not both-and comprehensive rules), lifetime and 30-day cigarette use, 30-day cigarette and other product use, and SHS exposure in past 7 days in home and car. Weighted multivariate logistic, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were used. Compared to comprehensive rules, partial and no smoke-free rules were significantly and positively related to lifetime cigarette use (respectively, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24-2.61; AOR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.93-4.25), and a similar significant pattern was found for 30-day cigarette use (respectively, AOR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.21-4.02; AOR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.34-4.50). No smoke-free rules significantly predicted using cigarettes and other tobacco products compared to comprehensive rules. In both descriptive and regression analyses, we found SHS exposure rates in both the home and car were significantly lower among youth whose household implemented comprehensive smoke-free rules. Comprehensive smoke-free rules protect youth from the harms of caregiver tobacco use. Relative to both partial and no smoke-free rules, comprehensive smoke-free rules have a marked impact on tobacco use and SHS exposure among youth who live with a smoker. Health promotion efforts should promote comprehensive smoke-free rules among all households and particularly households with children and adolescents.

12 CFR 1780.80 - Inflation adjustments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 1780.80 Section 1780.80... DEVELOPMENT RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 1780.80 Inflation adjustments. The maximum amount of each civil money penalty within OFHEO's...

Comments on SUSY Inflation Models on the Brane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Lu-Yun; Cheung, Kingman; Lin, Chia-Min

In this paper we consider a class of inflation models on the brane where the dominant part of the inflaton scalar potential does not depend on the inflaton field value during inflation. In particular, we consider supernatural inflation, its hilltop version, A-term inflation, and supersymmetric (SUSY) D- and F-term hybrid inflation on the brane. We show that the parameter space can be broadened, the inflation scale generally can be lowered, and still possible to have the spectral index ns = 0.96.

Inflation and Rural Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pitt, David

Inflation is both a cause and consequence of changes in power and status. Competitive status activities create spiral situations which have an economic correlate. Ultimately, inflation leads to the creation of economically deprived and depressed social groups. Deflation can be achieved to some extent by redistribution of wealth dictated from…

Using the β-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

Treesearch

S.J. Zarnoch; R.L. Anderson; R.M. Sheffield

1995-01-01

The β-binomial distribution is suggested as a model for describing and analyzing the dichotomous data obtained from programs monitoring the health of forests in the United States. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is given as well as asymptotic likelihood ratio tests. The procedure is illustrated with data on dogwood anthracnose infection (caused...

Inflation model selection meets dark radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tram, Thomas; Vallance, Robert; Vennin, Vincent, E-mail: thomas.tram@port.ac.uk, E-mail: robert.vallance@student.manchester.ac.uk, E-mail: vincent.vennin@port.ac.uk

2017-01-01

We investigate how inflation model selection is affected by the presence of additional free-streaming relativistic degrees of freedom, i.e. dark radiation. We perform a full Bayesian analysis of both inflation parameters and cosmological parameters taking reheating into account self-consistently. We compute the Bayesian evidence for a few representative inflation scenarios in both the standard ΛCDM model and an extension including dark radiation parametrised by its effective number of relativistic species N {sub eff}. Using a minimal dataset (Planck low-ℓ polarisation, temperature power spectrum and lensing reconstruction), we find that the observational status of most inflationary models is unchanged. The exceptionsmore » are potentials such as power-law inflation that predict large values for the scalar spectral index that can only be realised when N {sub eff} is allowed to vary. Adding baryon acoustic oscillations data and the B-mode data from BICEP2/Keck makes power-law inflation disfavoured, while adding local measurements of the Hubble constant H {sub 0} makes power-law inflation slightly favoured compared to the best single-field plateau potentials. This illustrates how the dark radiation solution to the H {sub 0} tension would have deep consequences for inflation model selection.« less

The development of inflatable array antennas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, J.

2001-01-01

Inflatable array antennas are being developed to significantly reduce the mass, the launch vehicle's stowage volume, and the cost of future spacecraft systems. Three inflatable array antennas, recently developed for spacecraft applications, are a 3.3 m x 1.0 m L-band synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) array, a 1.0 m-diameter X-band telecom reflectarray, and a 3 m-diameter Ka-band telecom reflectarray. All three antennas are similar in construction, and each consists of an inflatable tubular frame that supports and tensions a multi-layer thin-membrane RF radiating surface with printed microstrip patches. The L-band SAR array achieved a bandwidth of 80 MHz, an aperture efficiency of 74%, and a total mass of 15 kg. The X-band reflectarray achieved an aperture efficiency of 37%, good radiation patterns, and a total mass of 1.2 kg (excluding the inflation system). The 3 m Ka-band reflectarray achieved a surface flatness of 0.1 mm RMS, good radiation patterns, and a total mass of 12.8 kg (excluding the inflation system). These antennas demonstrated that inflatable arrays are feasible across the microwave and millimeter-wave spectrums. Further developments of these antennas are deemed necessary, in particular, in the area of qualifying the inflatable structures for space-environment usage.

The inflation sector of extended inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolb, Edward W.

1991-01-01

In extended inflation, the inflationary era is brought to a close by the process of percolation of true vacuum bubbles produced in a first-order phase transition. This paper discusses several effects that might obtain if the universe undergoes an inflationary first-order phase transition.

Seeing Double with K2: Testing Re-inflation with Two Remarkably Similar Planets around Red Giant Branch Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunblatt, Samuel K.; Huber, Daniel; Gaidos, Eric; Lopez, Eric D.; Howard, Andrew W.; Isaacson, Howard T.; Sinukoff, Evan; Vanderburg, Andrew; Nofi, Larissa; Yu, Jie; North, Thomas S. H.; Chaplin, William; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Petigura, Erik; Ansdell, Megan; Weiss, Lauren; Fulton, Benjamin; Lin, Douglas N. C.

2017-12-01

Despite more than 20 years since the discovery of the first gas giant planet with an anomalously large radius, the mechanism for planet inflation remains unknown. Here, we report the discovery of K2-132b, an inflated gas giant planet found with the NASA K2 Mission, and a revised mass for another inflated planet, K2-97b. These planets orbit on ≈9 day orbits around host stars that recently evolved into red giants. We constrain the irradiation history of these planets using models constrained by asteroseismology and Keck/High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer spectroscopy and radial velocity measurements. We measure planet radii of 1.31 ± 0.11 R J and 1.30 ± 0.07 R J, respectively. These radii are typical for planets receiving the current irradiation, but not the former, zero age main-sequence irradiation of these planets. This suggests that the current sizes of these planets are directly correlated to their current irradiation. Our precise constraints of the masses and radii of the stars and planets in these systems allow us to constrain the planetary heating efficiency of both systems as 0.03{ % }-0.02 % +0.03 % . These results are consistent with a planet re-inflation scenario, but suggest that the efficiency of planet re-inflation may be lower than previously theorized. Finally, we discuss the agreement within 10% of the stellar masses and radii, and the planet masses, radii, and orbital periods of both systems, and speculate that this may be due to selection bias in searching for planets around evolved stars.

Doubly unusual 3D lattice honeycomb displaying simultaneous negative and zero Poisson’s ratio properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu; Zheng, Bin-Bin; Fu, Ming-Hui; Lan, Lin-Hua; Zhang, Wen-Zhi

2018-04-01

In this paper, a novel three-dimensional (3D) lattice honeycomb is developed based on a two-dimensional (2D) accordion-like honeycomb. A combination of theoretical and numerical analysis is carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the elastic behavior of the new honeycomb and its dependence on the geometric parameters. The results show that the proposed new honeycomb can simultaneously achieve an in-plane negative Poisson’s ratio (NPR) effect and an out-of-plane zero Poisson’s ratio (ZPR) effect. This unique property may be very promising in some important fields, like aerospace, piezoelectric sensors and biomedicine engineering. The results also show that the geometric parameters, such as the slant angle, the strut thickness and the relative density, have a significant effect on the mechanical properties. Additionally, different dominant deformation models of the new honeycomb when compressed along the x (or y) and z directions are identified. This work provides a new concept for the design of honeycombs with a doubly unusual performance.

Grade Inflation: Metaphor and Reality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kamber, Richard; Biggs, Mary

2003-01-01

Grade inflation has become a general term for teachers and administrators in recent times and is an ambiguous denomination which needs to be identified. The allegory and reality of grade inflation is discussed.

Developing an Inflatable Solar Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malone, Patrick K.; Jankowski, Francis J.; Williams, Geoffery T.; Vendura, George J., Jr.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs describing the development of an inflatable solar array as part of the Inflatable Torus Solar Array Technology (ITSAT) program are presented. Program phases, overall and subsystem designs, and array deployment are addressed.

Accidental inflation from Kähler uplifting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens

2014-03-01

We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Käahler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation''more » (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running α ∼ 0.012 and enhanced tensor-to-scalar ratio r ∼ 10{sup −5}. The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.« less

Development of Inflatable Entry Systems Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Player, Charles J.; Cheatwood, F. McNeil; Corliss, James

2005-01-01

Achieving the objectives of NASA s Vision for Space Exploration will require the development of new technologies, which will in turn require higher fidelity modeling and analysis techniques, and innovative testing capabilities. Development of entry systems technologies can be especially difficult due to the lack of facilities and resources available to test these new technologies in mission relevant environments. This paper discusses the technology development process to bring inflatable aeroshell technology from Technology Readiness Level 2 (TRL-2) to TRL-7. This paper focuses mainly on two projects: Inflatable Reentry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE), and Inflatable Aeroshell and Thermal Protection System Development (IATD). The objectives of IRVE are to conduct an inflatable aeroshell flight test that demonstrates exoatmospheric deployment and inflation, reentry survivability and stability, and predictable drag performance. IATD will continue the development of the technology by conducting exploration specific trade studies and feeding forward those results into three more flight tests. Through an examination of these projects, and other potential projects, this paper discusses some of the risks, issues, and unexpected benefits associated with the development of inflatable entry systems technology.

When Parents' Praise Inflates, Children's Self-Esteem Deflates.

PubMed

Brummelman, Eddie; Nelemans, Stefanie A; Thomaes, Sander; Orobio de Castro, Bram

2017-11-01

Western parents often give children overly positive, inflated praise. One perspective holds that inflated praise sets unattainable standards for children, eventually lowering children's self-esteem (self-deflation hypothesis). Another perspective holds that children internalize inflated praise to form narcissistic self-views (self-inflation hypothesis). These perspectives were tested in an observational-longitudinal study (120 parent-child dyads from the Netherlands) in late childhood (ages 7-11), when narcissism and self-esteem first emerge. Supporting the self-deflation hypothesis, parents' inflated praise predicted lower self-esteem in children. Partly supporting the self-inflation hypothesis, parents' inflated praise predicted higher narcissism-but only in children with high self-esteem. Noninflated praise predicted neither self-esteem nor narcissism. Thus, inflated praise may foster the self-views it seeks to prevent. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

2013-12-01

Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (<4%), we can initially expect to see an increase in bicycle collisions as cycle mode share increases. However, as bicycle mode share increases beyond some unknown 'critical' level, our hypothesis also predicts a net safety improvement. To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall road

Constant-roll tachyon inflation and observational constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Qing; Gong, Yungui; Fei, Qin

2018-05-01

For the constant-roll tachyon inflation, we derive the analytical expressions for the scalar and tensor power spectra, the scalar and tensor spectral tilts and the tensor to scalar ratio to the first order of epsilon1 by using the method of Bessel function approximation. The derived ns-r results are compared with the observations, we find that only the constant-roll inflation with ηH being a constant is consistent with the observations and observations constrain the constant-roll inflation to be slow-roll inflation. The tachyon potential is also reconstructed for the constant-roll inflation which is consistent with the observations.

Inflation data clustering of some cities in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, Adi; Susanto, Bambang; Mahatma, Tundjung

2017-06-01

In this paper, it is presented how to cluster inflation data of cities in Indonesia by using k-means cluster method and fuzzy c-means method. The data that are used is limited to the monthly inflation data from 15 cities across Indonesia which have highest weight of donations and is supplemented with 5 cities used in the calculation of inflation in Indonesia. When they are applied into two clusters with k = 2 for k-means cluster method and c = 2, w = 1.25 for fuzzy c-means cluster method, Ambon, Manado and Jayapura tend to become one cluster (high inflation) meanwhile other cities tend to become members of other cluster (low inflation). However, if they are applied into two clusters with c=2, w=1.5, Surabaya, Medan, Makasar, Samarinda, Makasar, Manado, Ambon dan Jayapura tend to become one cluster (high inflation) meanwhile other cities tend to become members of other cluster (low inflation). Furthermore, when we use two clusters with k=3 for k-means cluster method and c=3, w = 1.25 for fuzzy c-means cluster method, Ambon tends to become member of first cluster (high inflation), Manado and Jayapura tend to become member of second cluster (moderate inflation), other cities tend to become members of third cluster (low inflation). If it is applied c=3, w = 1.5, Ambon, Manado and Jayapura tend to become member of first cluster (high inflation), Surabaya, Bandung, Medan, Makasar, Banyuwangi, Denpasar, Samarinda dan Mataram tend to become members of second cluster (moderate inflation), meanwhile other cities tend to become members of third cluster (low inflation). Similarly, interpretation can be made to the results of applying 5 clusters.

Scalar-tensor linear inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Artymowski, Michał; Racioppi, Antonio, E-mail: Michal.Artymowski@uj.edu.pl, E-mail: Antonio.Racioppi@kbfi.ee

2017-04-01

We investigate two approaches to non-minimally coupled gravity theories which present linear inflation as attractor solution: a) the scalar-tensor theory approach, where we look for a scalar-tensor theory that would restore results of linear inflation in the strong coupling limit for a non-minimal coupling to gravity of the form of f (φ) R /2; b) the particle physics approach, where we motivate the form of the Jordan frame potential by loop corrections to the inflaton field. In both cases the Jordan frame potentials are modifications of the induced gravity inflationary scenario, but instead of the Starobinsky attractor they lead tomore » linear inflation in the strong coupling limit.« less

Mars inflatable greenhouse analog.

PubMed

Sadler, Philip D; Giacomelli, Gene A

2002-01-01

Light intensities on the Martian surface can possibly support a bioregenerative life support system (BLSS) utilizing natural sunlight for hydroponic crop production, if a suitable controlled environment can be provided. Inflatable clear membrane structures offer low mass, are more easily transported than a rigid structure, and are good candidates for providing a suitable controlled environment for crop production. Cable culture is one hydroponic growing system that can take advantage of the beneficial attributes of the inflatable structure. An analog of a Mars inflatable greenhouse can provide researchers data on issues such as crew time requirements for operation, productivity for BLSS, human factors, and much more at a reasonable cost. This is a description of one such design.

Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

2005-08-01

Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

2005-01-01

Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

Robustness of inflation to inhomogeneous initial conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clough, Katy; Lim, Eugene A.; DiNunno, Brandon S.

We consider the effects of inhomogeneous initial conditions in both the scalar field profile and the extrinsic curvature on different inflationary models. In particular, we compare the robustness of small field inflation to that of large field inflation, using numerical simulations with Einstein gravity in 3+1 dimensions. We find that small field inflation can fail in the presence of subdominant gradient energies, suggesting that it is much less robust to inhomogeneities than large field inflation, which withstands dominant gradient energies. However, we also show that small field inflation can be successful even if some regions of spacetime start out inmore » the region of the potential that does not support inflation. In the large field case, we confirm previous results that inflation is robust if the inflaton occupies the inflationary part of the potential. Furthermore, we show that increasing initial scalar gradients will not form sufficiently massive inflation-ending black holes if the initial hypersurface is approximately flat. Finally, we consider the large field case with a varying extrinsic curvature K , such that some regions are initially collapsing. We find that this may again lead to local black holes, but overall the spacetime remains inflationary if the spacetime is open, which confirms previous theoretical studies.« less

Robustness of inflation to inhomogeneous initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clough, Katy; Lim, Eugene A.; DiNunno, Brandon S.; Fischler, Willy; Flauger, Raphael; Paban, Sonia

2017-09-01

We consider the effects of inhomogeneous initial conditions in both the scalar field profile and the extrinsic curvature on different inflationary models. In particular, we compare the robustness of small field inflation to that of large field inflation, using numerical simulations with Einstein gravity in 3+1 dimensions. We find that small field inflation can fail in the presence of subdominant gradient energies, suggesting that it is much less robust to inhomogeneities than large field inflation, which withstands dominant gradient energies. However, we also show that small field inflation can be successful even if some regions of spacetime start out in the region of the potential that does not support inflation. In the large field case, we confirm previous results that inflation is robust if the inflaton occupies the inflationary part of the potential. Furthermore, we show that increasing initial scalar gradients will not form sufficiently massive inflation-ending black holes if the initial hypersurface is approximately flat. Finally, we consider the large field case with a varying extrinsic curvature K, such that some regions are initially collapsing. We find that this may again lead to local black holes, but overall the spacetime remains inflationary if the spacetime is open, which confirms previous theoretical studies.

Neighborhood walkability and active travel (walking and cycling) in New York City.

PubMed

Freeman, Lance; Neckerman, Kathryn; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Quinn, James; Richards, Catherine; Bader, Michael D M; Lovasi, Gina; Jack, Darby; Weiss, Christopher; Konty, Kevin; Arno, Peter; Viola, Deborah; Kerker, Bonnie; Rundle, Andrew G

2013-08-01

Urban planners have suggested that built environment characteristics can support active travel (walking and cycling) and reduce sedentary behavior. This study assessed whether engagement in active travel is associated with neighborhood walkability measured for zip codes in New York City. Data were analyzed on engagement in active travel and the frequency of walking or biking ten blocks or more in the past month, from 8,064 respondents to the New York City 2003 Community Health Survey (CHS). A neighborhood walkability scale that measures: residential, intersection, and subway stop density; land use mix; and the ratio of retail building floor area to retail land area was calculated for each zip code. Data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression incorporating survey sample weights and adjusting for respondents' sociodemographic characteristics. Overall, 44 % of respondents reported no episodes of active travel and among those who reported any episode, the mean number was 43.2 episodes per month. Comparing the 75th to the 25th percentile of zip code walkability, the odds ratio for reporting zero episodes of active travel was 0.71 (95 % CI 0.61, 0.83) and the exponentiated beta coefficient for the count of episodes of active travel was 1.13 (95 % CI 1.06, 1.21). Associations between lower walkability and reporting zero episodes of active travel were significantly stronger for non-Hispanic Whites as compared to non-Hispanic Blacks and to Hispanics and for those living in higher income zip codes. The results suggest that neighborhood walkability is associated with higher engagement in active travel.

Self-reproduction in k-inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helmer, Ferdinand; Winitzki, Sergei

2006-09-15

We study cosmological self-reproduction in models of inflation driven by a scalar field {phi} with a noncanonical kinetic term (k-inflation). We develop a general criterion for the existence of attractors and establish conditions selecting a class of k-inflation models that admit a unique attractor solution. We then consider quantum fluctuations on the attractor background. We show that the correlation length of the fluctuations is of order c{sub s}H{sup -1}, where c{sub s} is the speed of sound. By computing the magnitude of field fluctuations, we determine the coefficients of Fokker-Planck equations describing the probability distribution of the spatially averaged fieldmore » {phi}. The field fluctuations are generally large in the inflationary attractor regime; hence, eternal self-reproduction is a generic feature of k-inflation. This is established more formally by demonstrating the existence of stationary solutions of the relevant Fokker-Planck equations. We also show that there exists a (model-dependent) range {phi}{sub R}<{phi}<{phi}{sub max} within which large fluctuations are likely to drive the field towards the upper boundary {phi}={phi}{sub max}, where the semiclassical consideration breaks down. An exit from inflation into reheating without reaching {phi}{sub max} will occur almost surely (with probability 1) only if the initial value of {phi} is below {phi}{sub R}. In this way, strong self-reproduction effects constrain models of k-inflation.« less

Alcohol expectancies longitudinally predict drinking and the alcohol myopia effects of relief, self-inflation, and excess.

PubMed

Lac, Andrew; Brack, Nathaniel

2018-02-01

Alcohol myopia theory posits that alcohol consumption attenuates information processing capacity, and that expectancy beliefs together with intake level are responsible for experiences in myopic effects (relief, self-inflation, and excess). Adults (N=413) averaging 36.39 (SD=13.02) years of age completed the Comprehensive Effects of Alcohol questionnaire at baseline, followed by alcohol use measures (frequency and quantity) and the Alcohol Myopia Scale one month later. Three structural equation models based on differing construct manifestations of alcohol expectancies served to longitudinally forecast alcohol use and myopia. In Model 1, overall expectancy predicted greater alcohol use and higher levels of all three myopic effects. In Model 2, specifying separate positive and negative expectancy factors, positive but not negative expectancy predicted greater use. Furthermore, positive expectancy and use explained higher myopic relief and higher self-inflation, whereas positive expectancy, negative expectancy, and use explained higher myopic excess. In Model 3, the seven specific expectancy subscales (sociability, tension reduction, liquid courage, sexuality, cognitive and behavioral impairment, risk and aggression, and self-perception) were simultaneously specified as predictors. Tension reduction expectancy, sexuality expectancy, and use contributed to higher myopic relief; sexuality expectancy and use explained higher myopic self-inflation; and risk and aggression expectancy and use accounted for higher myopic excess. Across all three predictive models, the total variance explained ranged from 12 to 19% for alcohol use, 50 to 51% for relief, 29 to 34% for self-inflation, and 32 to 35% for excess. Findings support that the type of alcohol myopia experienced is a concurrent function of self-fulfilling alcohol prophecies and drinking levels. The interpreted measurement manifestation of expectancy yielded different prevention implications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

Inflatable Dark Matter.

PubMed

Davoudiasl, Hooman; Hooper, Dan; McDermott, Samuel D

2016-01-22

We describe a general scenario, dubbed "inflatable dark matter," in which the density of dark matter particles can be reduced through a short period of late-time inflation in the early Universe. The overproduction of dark matter that is predicted within many, otherwise, well-motivated models of new physics can be elegantly remedied within this context. Thermal relics that would, otherwise, be disfavored can easily be accommodated within this class of scenarios, including dark matter candidates that are very heavy or very light. Furthermore, the nonthermal abundance of grand unified theory or Planck scale axions can be brought to acceptable levels without invoking anthropic tuning of initial conditions. A period of late-time inflation could have occurred over a wide range of scales from ∼MeV to the weak scale or above, and could have been triggered by physics within a hidden sector, with small but not necessarily negligible couplings to the standard model.

Model with two periods of inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schettler, Simon; Schaffner-Bielich, Jürgen

2016-01-01

A scenario with two subsequent periods of inflationary expansion in the very early Universe is examined. The model is based on a potential motivated by symmetries being found in field theory at high energy. For various parameter sets of the potential, the spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations that are expected to originate from this scenario are calculated. Also the beginning of the reheating epoch connecting the second inflation with thermal equilibrium is studied. Perturbations with wavelengths leaving the horizon around the transition between the two inflations are special: It is demonstrated that the power spectrum at such scales deviates significantly from expectations based on measurements of the cosmic microwave background. This supports the conclusion that parameters for which this part of the spectrum leaves observable traces in the cosmic microwave background must be excluded. Parameters entailing a very efficient second inflation correspond to standard small-field inflation and can meet observational constraints. Particular attention is paid to the case where the second inflation leads solely to a shift of the observable spectrum from the first inflation. A viable scenario requires this shift to be small.

Inflatable Personal Flotation Device Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-02-01

late. t, h Iw . No cood (1) - CVider would not Ipu, tore 1t) - ( I\\ inder d idn ’t punk t n- t . Tried several times. Lost belt in lake, Lr ic - caIIt...dii not respond as expected (1) 6. (C) - When C02 cylinder is used to inflate, all the snaps do not pop open (1) - No event (1) - When inflated it is...Upon inflation, the snap closest to my face popped , striking my hand and face (1) - Device rode up over back of head in rough water (1) - None (1

Accidental Kähler moduli inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maharana, Anshuman; Rummel, Markus; Sumitomo, Yoske

2015-09-01

We study a model of accidental inflation in type IIB string theory where inflation occurs near the inflection point of a small Kähler modulus. A racetrack structure helps to alleviate the known concern that string-loop corrections may spoil Kähler Moduli Inflation unless having a significant suppression via the string coupling or a special brane setup. Also, the hierarchy of gauge group ranks required for the separation between moduli stabilization and inflationary dynamics is relaxed. The relaxation becomes more significant when we use the recently proposed D-term generated racetrack model.

Analysis of railroad tank car releases using a generalized binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Hong, Yili

2015-11-01

The United States is experiencing an unprecedented boom in shale oil production, leading to a dramatic growth in petroleum crude oil traffic by rail. In 2014, U.S. railroads carried over 500,000 tank carloads of petroleum crude oil, up from 9500 in 2008 (a 5300% increase). In light of continual growth in crude oil by rail, there is an urgent national need to manage this emerging risk. This need has been underscored in the wake of several recent crude oil release incidents. In contrast to highway transport, which usually involves a tank trailer, a crude oil train can carry a large number of tank cars, having the potential for a large, multiple-tank-car release incident. Previous studies exclusively assumed that railroad tank car releases in the same train accident are mutually independent, thereby estimating the number of tank cars releasing given the total number of tank cars derailed based on a binomial model. This paper specifically accounts for dependent tank car releases within a train accident. We estimate the number of tank cars releasing given the number of tank cars derailed based on a generalized binomial model. The generalized binomial model provides a significantly better description for the empirical tank car accident data through our numerical case study. This research aims to provide a new methodology and new insights regarding the further development of risk management strategies for improving railroad crude oil transportation safety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerocapture Inflatable Decelerator for Planetary Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reza, Sajjad; Hund, Richard; Kustas, Frank; Willcockson, William; Songer, Jarvis; Brown, Glen

2007-01-01

Forward Attached Inflatable Decelerators, more commonly known as inflatable aeroshells, provide an effective, cost efficient means of decelerating spacecrafts by using atmospheric drag for aerocapture or planetary entry instead of conventional liquid propulsion deceleration systems. Entry into planetary atmospheres results in significant heating and aerodynamic pressures which stress aeroshell systems to their useful limits. Incorporation of lightweight inflatable decelerator surfaces with increased surface-area footprints provides the opportunity to reduce heat flux and induced temperatures, while increasing the payload mass fraction. Furthermore, inflatable aeroshell decelerators provide the needed deceleration at considerably higher altitudes and Mach numbers when compared with conventional rigid aeroshell entry systems. Inflatable aeroshells also provide for stowage in a compact space, with subsequent deployment of a large-area, lightweight heatshield to survive entry heating. Use of a deployable heatshield decelerator enables an increase in the spacecraft payload mass fraction and may eliminate the need for a spacecraft backshell.

Non-Gaussianity in multi-sound-speed disformally coupled inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Bruck, Carsten van; Longden, Chris; Koivisto, Tomi, E-mail: C.vandeBruck@sheffield.ac.uk, E-mail: tomi.koivisto@nordita.org, E-mail: cjlongden1@sheffield.ac.uk

Most, if not all, scalar-tensor theories are equivalent to General Relativity with a disformally coupled matter sector. In extra-dimensional theories such a coupling can be understood as a result of induction of the metric on a brane that matter is confined to. This article presents a first look at the non-Gaussianities in disformally coupled inflation, a simple two-field model that features a novel kinetic interaction. Cases with both canonical and Dirac-Born-Infeld (DBI) kinetic terms are taken into account, the latter motivated by the possible extra-dimensional origin of the disformality. The computations are carried out for the equilateral configuration in themore » slow-roll regime, wherein it is found that the non-Gaussianity is typically rather small and negative. This is despite the fact that the new kinetic interaction causes the perturbation modes to propagate with different sounds speeds, which may both significantly deviate from unity during inflation.« less

Primordial perturbations in multi-scalar inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abedi, Habib; Abbassi, Amir M., E-mail: h.abedi@ut.ac.ir, E-mail: amabasi@khayam.ut.ac.ir

2017-07-01

Multiple field models of inflation exhibit new features than single field models. In this work, we study the hierarchy of parameters based on Hubble expansion rate in curved field space and derive the system of flow equations that describe their evolutions. Then we focus on obtaining derivatives of number of e-folds with respect to scalar fields during inflation and at hypersurface of the end of inflation.

Effects of Cognition, Function, and Behavioral and Psychological Symptoms on Medicare Expenditures and Health Care Utilization for Persons With Dementia.

PubMed

Jutkowitz, Eric; Kane, Robert L; Dowd, Bryan; Gaugler, Joseph E; MacLehose, Richard F; Kuntz, Karen M

2017-06-01

Clinical features of dementia (cognition, function, and behavioral/psychological symptoms [BPSD]) may differentially affect Medicare expenditures/health care utilization. We linked cross-sectional data from the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study to Medicare data to evaluate the association between dementia clinical features among those with dementia and Medicare expenditures/health care utilization (n = 234). Cognition was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Function was evaluated as the number of functional limitations (0-10). BPSD was evaluated as the number of symptoms (0-12). Expenditures were estimated with a generalized linear model (log-link and gamma distribution). Number of hospitalizations, institutional outpatient visits, and physician visits were estimated with a negative binomial regression. Medicare covered skilled nursing days were estimated with a zero-inflated negative binomial model. Cognition and BPSD were not associated with expenditures. Among individuals with less than seven functional limitations, one additional limitation was associated with $123 (95% confidence interval: $19-$227) additional monthly Medicare spending. Better cognition and poorer function were associated with more hospitalizations among those with an MMSE less than three and less than six functional limitations, respectively. BPSD had no effect on hospitalizations. Poorer function and fewer BPSD were associated with more skilled nursing among individuals with one to seven functional limitations and more than four symptoms, respectively. Cognition had no effect on skilled nursing care. No clinical feature was associated with institutional outpatient care. Of individuals with an MMSE less than 15, poorer cognition was associated with fewer physician visits. Among those with more than six functional limitations, poorer function was associated with fewer physician visits. Poorer function, not cognition or BPSD, was associated with higher Medicare

Household expenditure on leprosy outpatient services in the Indian health system: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Suryawanshi, Pramilesh; Raikwar, Akash; Arif, Mohammad; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

2018-01-01

Background Leprosy is a major public health problem in many low and middle income countries, especially in India, and contributes considerably to the global burden of the disease. Leprosy and poverty are closely associated, and therefore the economic burden of leprosy is a concern. However, evidence on patient’s expenditure is scarce. In this study, we estimate the expenditure in primary care (outpatient) by leprosy households in two different public health settings. Methodology/Principal findings We performed a cross-sectional study, comparing the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli with the Umbergaon block of Valsad, Gujrat, India. A household (HH) survey was conducted between May and October, 2016. We calculated direct and indirect expenditure by zero inflated negative binomial and negative binomial regression. The sampled households were comparable on socioeconomic indicators. The mean direct expenditure was USD 6.5 (95% CI: 2.4–17.9) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 5.4 (95% CI: 3.8–7.9) per visit in Umbergaon. The mean indirect expenditure was USD 8.7 (95% CI: 7.2–10.6) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 12.4 (95% CI: 7.0–21.9) in Umbergaon. The age of the leprosy patients and type of health facilities were the major predictors of total expenditure on leprosy primary care. The higher the age, the higher the expenditure at both sites. The private facilities are more expensive than the government facilities at both sites. If the public health system is enhanced, government facilities are the first preference for patients. Conclusions/Significance An enhanced public health system reduces the patient’s expenditure and improves the health seeking behaviour. We recommend investing in health system strengthening to reduce the economic burden of leprosy. PMID:29300747

Inflation of Unreefed and Reefed Extraction Parachutes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Eric S.; Varela, Jose G.

2015-01-01

Data from the Orion and several other test programs have been used to reconstruct inflation parameters for 28 ft Do extraction parachutes as well as the parent aircraft pitch response during extraction. The inflation force generated by extraction parachutes is recorded directly during tow tests but is usually inferred from the payload accelerometer during Low Velocity Airdrop Delivery (LVAD) flight test extractions. Inflation parameters are dependent on the type of parent aircraft, number of canopies, and standard vs. high altitude extraction conditions. For standard altitudes, single canopy inflations are modeled as infinite mass, but the non-symmetric inflations in a cluster are modeled as finite mass. High altitude extractions have necessitated reefing the extraction parachutes, which are best modeled as infinite mass for those conditions. Distributions of aircraft pitch profiles and inflation parameters have been generated for use in Monte Carlo simulations of payload extractions.

STS-45 crewmembers during zero gravity activities onboard KC-135 NASA 930

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

STS-45 Atlantis, Orbiter Vehicle (OV) 104, crewmembers and backup payload specialist participate in zero gravity activities onboard KC-135 NASA 930. The crewmembers, wearing flight suits, float and tumble around an inflated globe during the few seconds of microgravity created by parabolic flight. With his hand on the fuselage ceiling is Payload Specialist Dirk D. Frimout. Clockwise from his position are Mission Specialist (MS) C. Michael Foale, Pilot Brian Duffy, backup Payload Specialist Charles R. Chappell, MS and Payload Commander (PLC) Kathryn D. Sullivan (with eye glasses), Commander Charles F. Bolden, and Payload Specialist Byron K. Lichtenberg.

Clockwork inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehagias, Alex; Riotto, Antonio

2017-04-01

We investigate the recently proposed clockwork mechanism delivering light degrees of freedom with suppressed interactions and show, with various examples, that it can be efficiently implemented in inflationary scenarios to generate flat inflaton potentials and small density perturbations without fine-tunings. We also study the clockwork graviton in de Sitter and, interestingly, we find that the corresponding clockwork charge is site-dependent. As a consequence, the amount of tensor modes is generically suppressed with respect to the standard cases where the clockwork set-up is not adopted. This point can be made a virtue in resurrecting models of inflation which were supposed to be ruled out because of the excessive amount of tensor modes from inflation.

Trapped Inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, Daniel; Horn, Bart; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.

2009-06-19

We analyze a distinctive mechanism for inflation in which particle production slows down a scalar field on a steep potential, and show how it descends from angular moduli in string compactifications. The analysis of density perturbations - taking into account the integrated effect of the produced particles and their quantum fluctuations - requires somewhat new techniques that we develop. We then determine the conditions for this effect to produce sixty e-foldings of inflation with the correct amplitude of density perturbations at the Gaussian level, and show that these requirements can be straightforwardly satisfied. Finally, we estimate the amplitude of themore » non-Gaussianity in the power spectrum and find a significant equilateral contribution.« less

Open inflation in the landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamauchi, Daisuke; Linde, Andrei; Naruko, Atsushi; Sasaki, Misao; Tanaka, Takahiro

2011-08-01

The open inflation scenario is attracting a renewed interest in the context of the string landscape. Since there are a large number of metastable de Sitter vacua in the string landscape, tunneling transitions to lower metastable vacua through the bubble nucleation occur quite naturally, which leads to a natural realization of open inflation. Although the deviation of Ω0 from unity is small by the observational bound, we argue that the effect of this small deviation on the large-angle CMB anisotropies can be significant for tensor-type perturbation in the open inflation scenario. We consider the situation in which there is a large hierarchy between the energy scale of the quantum tunneling and that of the slow-roll inflation in the nucleated bubble. If the potential just after tunneling is steep enough, a rapid-roll phase appears before the slow-roll inflation. In this case the power spectrum is basically determined by the Hubble rate during the slow-roll inflation. On the other hand, if such a rapid-roll phase is absent, the power spectrum keeps the memory of the high energy density there in the large angular components. Furthermore, the amplitude of large angular components can be enhanced due to the effects of the wall fluctuation mode if the bubble wall tension is small. Therefore, although even the dominant quadrupole component is suppressed by the factor (1-Ω0)2, one can construct some models in which the deviation of Ω0 from unity is large enough to produce measurable effects. We also consider a more general class of models, where the false vacuum decay may occur due to Hawking-Moss tunneling, as well as the models involving more than one scalar field. We discuss scalar perturbations in these models and point out that a large set of such models is already ruled out by observational data, unless there was a very long stage of slow-roll inflation after the tunneling. These results show that observational data allow us to test various assumptions concerning

Symmetry breaking patterns for inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Remko; Roest, Diederik; Stefanyszyn, David

2018-06-01

We study inflationary models where the kinetic sector of the theory has a non-linearly realised symmetry which is broken by the inflationary potential. We distinguish between kinetic symmetries which non-linearly realise an internal or space-time group, and which yield a flat or curved scalar manifold. This classification leads to well-known inflationary models such as monomial inflation and α-attractors, as well as a new model based on fixed couplings between a dilaton and many axions which non-linearly realises higher-dimensional conformal symmetries. In this model, inflation can be realised along the dilatonic direction, leading to a tensor-to-scalar ratio r ˜ 0 .01 and a spectral index n s ˜ 0 .975. We refer to the new model as ambient inflation since inflation proceeds along an isometry of an anti-de Sitter ambient space-time, which fully determines the kinetic sector.

Using beta binomials to estimate classification uncertainty for ensemble models.

PubMed

Clark, Robert D; Liang, Wenkel; Lee, Adam C; Lawless, Michael S; Fraczkiewicz, Robert; Waldman, Marvin

2014-01-01

Quantitative structure-activity (QSAR) models have enormous potential for reducing drug discovery and development costs as well as the need for animal testing. Great strides have been made in estimating their overall reliability, but to fully realize that potential, researchers and regulators need to know how confident they can be in individual predictions. Submodels in an ensemble model which have been trained on different subsets of a shared training pool represent multiple samples of the model space, and the degree of agreement among them contains information on the reliability of ensemble predictions. For artificial neural network ensembles (ANNEs) using two different methods for determining ensemble classification - one using vote tallies and the other averaging individual network outputs - we have found that the distribution of predictions across positive vote tallies can be reasonably well-modeled as a beta binomial distribution, as can the distribution of errors. Together, these two distributions can be used to estimate the probability that a given predictive classification will be in error. Large data sets comprised of logP, Ames mutagenicity, and CYP2D6 inhibition data are used to illustrate and validate the method. The distributions of predictions and errors for the training pool accurately predicted the distribution of predictions and errors for large external validation sets, even when the number of positive and negative examples in the training pool were not balanced. Moreover, the likelihood of a given compound being prospectively misclassified as a function of the degree of consensus between networks in the ensemble could in most cases be estimated accurately from the fitted beta binomial distributions for the training pool. Confidence in an individual predictive classification by an ensemble model can be accurately assessed by examining the distributions of predictions and errors as a function of the degree of agreement among the constituent

Logistic quantile regression provides improved estimates for bounded avian counts: a case study of California Spotted Owl fledgling production

Treesearch

Brian S. Cade; Barry R. Noon; Rick D. Scherer; John J. Keane

2017-01-01

Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical...

Gravitational waves and large field inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linde, Andrei

2017-02-01

According to the famous Lyth bound, one can confirm large field inflation by finding tensor modes with sufficiently large tensor-to-scalar ratio r. Here we will try to answer two related questions: is it possible to rule out all large field inflationary models by not finding tensor modes with r above some critical value, and what can we say about the scale of inflation by measuring r? However, in order to answer these questions one should distinguish between two different definitions of the large field inflation and three different definitions of the scale of inflation. We will examine these issues using the theory of cosmological α-attractors as a convenient testing ground.

A Methane Balloon Inflation Chamber

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Czerwinski, Curtis J.; Cordes, Tanya J.; Franek, Joe

2005-01-01

The various equipments, procedure and hazards in constructing the device for inflating a methane balloon using a standard methane outlet in a laboratory are described. This device is fast, safe, inexpensive, and easy to use as compared to a hydrogen gas cylinder for inflating balloons.

Natural inflation and quantum gravity.

PubMed

de la Fuente, Anton; Saraswat, Prashant; Sundrum, Raman

2015-04-17

Cosmic inflation provides an attractive framework for understanding the early Universe and the cosmic microwave background. It can readily involve energies close to the scale at which quantum gravity effects become important. General considerations of black hole quantum mechanics suggest nontrivial constraints on any effective field theory model of inflation that emerges as a low-energy limit of quantum gravity, in particular, the constraint of the weak gravity conjecture. We show that higher-dimensional gauge and gravitational dynamics can elegantly satisfy these constraints and lead to a viable, theoretically controlled and predictive class of natural inflation models.

A Bayesian zero-truncated approach for analysing capture-recapture count data from classical scrapie surveillance in France.

PubMed

Vergne, Timothée; Calavas, Didier; Cazeau, Géraldine; Durand, Benoît; Dufour, Barbara; Grosbois, Vladimir

2012-06-01

Capture-recapture (CR) methods are used to study populations that are monitored with imperfect observation processes. They have recently been applied to the monitoring of animal diseases to evaluate the number of infected units that remain undetected by the surveillance system. This paper proposes three bayesian models to estimate the total number of scrapie-infected holdings in France from CR count data obtained from the French classical scrapie surveillance programme. We fitted two zero-truncated Poisson (ZTP) models (with and without holding size as a covariate) and a zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) model to the 2006 national surveillance count dataset. We detected a large amount of heterogeneity in the count data, making the use of the simple ZTP model inappropriate. However, including holding size as a covariate did not bring any significant improvement over the simple ZTP model. The ZTNB model proved to be the best model, giving an estimation of 535 (CI(95%) 401-796) infected and detectable sheep holdings in 2006, although only 141 were effectively detected, resulting in a holding-level prevalence of 4.4‰ (CI(95%) 3.2-6.3) and a sensitivity of holding-level surveillance of 26% (CI(95%) 18-35). The main limitation of the present study was the small amount of data collected during the surveillance programme. It was therefore not possible to build complex models that would allow depicting more accurately the epidemiological and detection processes that generate the surveillance data. We discuss the perspectives of capture-recapture count models in the context of animal disease surveillance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE)

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-05-20

S77-E-5022 (20 May 1996)--- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload is backdropped over clouds and water. The view was photographed with an Electronic Still Camera (ESC) and downlinked to flight controllers on the first full day of orbital operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE)

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-05-20

S77-E-5027 (20 May 1996)--- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload is backdropped over clouds and water. The view was photographed with an Electronic Still Camera (ESC) and downlinked to flight controllers on the first full day of orbital operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

Value-based purchasing and hospital acquired conditions: are we seeing improvement?

PubMed

Spaulding, Aaron; Zhao, Mei; Haley, D Rob

2014-12-01

To determine if the Value-Based Purchasing Performance Scoring system correlates with hospital acquired condition quality indicators. This study utilizes the following secondary data sources: the American Hospital Association (AHA) annual survey and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) Value-Based Purchasing and Hospital Acquired Conditions databases. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to examine the effect of CMS total performance score on counts of hospital acquired conditions. Hospital structure variables including size, ownership, teaching status, payer mix, case mix, and location were utilized as control variables. The secondary data sources were merged into a single database using Stata 10. Total performance scores, which are used to determine if hospitals should receive incentive money, do not correlate well with quality outcome in the form of hospital acquired conditions. Value-based purchasing does not appear to correlate with improved quality and patient safety as indicated by Hospital Acquired Condition (HAC) scores. This leads us to believe that either the total performance score does not measure what it should, or the quality outcome measurements do not reflect the quality of the total performance scores measure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health services utilization of people having and not having a regular doctor in Canada.

PubMed

Thanh, Nguyen Xuan; Rapoport, John

2017-04-01

Canada having a universal health insurance plan that provides hospital and physician benefits offers a natural experiment of whether continuity of care actually provides lower or higher utilization of services. The question we are evaluating is whether Canadians, who have a regular physician, use more health resources than those who do not have one? Using two statistical methods, including propensity score matching and zero-inflated negative binomial regression, we analyzed data from the 2010 and 2007/2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys separately to document differences between people self-reportedly having and not having a regular doctor in the utilization of general practitioner, specialist, and hospital services. The results showed, consistently for all two statistical methods and two datasets used, that people reportedly having a regular doctor used more healthcare services than a matched group of people who was self-reportedly not having a regular doctor. For specialist and hospital utilization, the statistically significant differences were in the likelihood if the service was used but not in the number of specialist visits or hospital nights among users. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of early dental office visits on dental caries experience.

PubMed

Beil, Heather; Rozier, R Gary; Preisser, John S; Stearns, Sally C; Lee, Jessica Y

2014-10-01

We determined the association between timing of a first dentist office visit before age 5 years and dental disease in kindergarten. We used North Carolina Medicaid claims (1999-2006) linked to state oral health surveillance data to compare caries experience for kindergarten students (2005-2006) who had a visit before age 60 months (n=11,394) to derive overall exposure effects from a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. We repeated the analysis separately for children who had preventive and tertiary visits. Children who had a visit at age 37 to 48 and 49 to 60 months had significantly less disease than children with a visit by age 24 months (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.81, 0.95; IRR=0.75; 95% CI=0.69, 0.82, respectively). Disease status did not differ between children who had a tertiary visit by age 24 months and other children. Medicaid-enrolled children in our study followed an urgent care type of utilization, and access to dental care was limited. Children at high risk for dental disease should be given priority for a preventive dental visit before age 3 years.

Associations between sensitivity to punishment, sensitivity to reward, and gambling.

PubMed

Gaher, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Shishido, Hanako; Simons, Jeffrey S; Gaster, Sam

2015-03-01

The majority of individuals gamble during their lifetime; however only a subset of these individuals develops problematic gambling. Gray's Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory may be relevant to understanding gambling problems. Differences in sensitivity to punishments and rewards can influence an individual's behavior and may be pertinent to the development of gambling problems. This study examined the functional associations between sensitivity to punishment (SP), sensitivity to reward (SR), and gambling problems in a sample of 2254 college students. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to predict gambling problems as well as the absence of gambling problems. Gambling problems were hypothesized to be positively associated with SR and inversely associated with SP. In addition, SP was hypothesized to moderate the association between SR and gambling problems, attenuating the strength of the association. As hypothesized, SR was positively associated with gambling problems. However, SP did not moderate the relationship between SR and gambling problems. SP did, however, moderate the relationship between SR and the likelihood of never experiencing gambling problems. The results demonstrate that individual differences in SP and SR are functionally associated with gambling problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inflatable stretcher to transport patients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, C. C.; Gordon, F. T., Jr.; Schmidt, C. B.

1970-01-01

Inflatable plastic bag inside strong, inflexible outer bag facilitates emergency transport of seriously burned or disabled patients. When the bag is inflated the patient is completely immobilized and cushioned from external shock. Air for breathing, temperature controls and communications may be provided by appropriate plug-in connections.

Fibre inflation and α-attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallosh, Renata; Linde, Andrei; Roest, Diederik; Westphal, Alexander; Yamada, Yusuke

2018-02-01

Fibre inflation is a specific string theory construction based on the Large Volume Scenario that produces an inflationary plateau. We outline its relation to α-attractor models for inflation, with the cosmological sector originating from certain string theory corrections leading to α = 2 and α = 1/2. Above a certain field range, the steepening effect of higher-order corrections leads first to the breakdown of single-field slow-roll and after that to the onset of 2-field dynamics: the overall volume of the extra dimensions starts to participate in the effective dynamics. Finally, we propose effective supergravity models of fibre inflation based on an \\overline{D3} uplift term with a nilpotent superfield. Specific moduli dependent \\overline{D3} induced geometries lead to cosmological fibre models but have in addition a de Sitter minimum exit. These supergravity models motivated by fibre inflation are relatively simple, stabilize the axions and disentangle the Hubble parameter from supersymmetry breaking.

Inflatable Dark Matter

DOE PAGES

Davoudiasl, Hooman; Hooper, Dan; McDermott, Samuel D.

2016-01-22

We describe a general scenario, dubbed “Inflatable Dark Matter”, in which the density of dark matter particles can be reduced through a short period of late-time inflation in the early universe. The overproduction of dark matter that is predicted within many otherwise well-motivated models of new physics can be elegantly remedied within this context, without the need to tune underlying parameters or to appeal to anthropic considerations. Thermal relics that would otherwise be disfavored can easily be accommodated within this class of scenarios, including dark matter candidates that are very heavy or very light. Furthermore, the non-thermal abundance of GUTmore » or Planck scale axions can be brought to acceptable levels, without invoking anthropic tuning of initial conditions. Additionally, a period of late-time inflation could have occurred over a wide range of scales from ~ MeV to the weak scale or above, and could have been triggered by physics within a hidden sector, with small but not necessarily negligible couplings to the Standard Model.« less

Metaprop: a Stata command to perform meta-analysis of binomial data.

PubMed

Nyaga, Victoria N; Arbyn, Marc; Aerts, Marc

2014-01-01

Meta-analyses have become an essential tool in synthesizing evidence on clinical and epidemiological questions derived from a multitude of similar studies assessing the particular issue. Appropriate and accessible statistical software is needed to produce the summary statistic of interest. Metaprop is a statistical program implemented to perform meta-analyses of proportions in Stata. It builds further on the existing Stata procedure metan which is typically used to pool effects (risk ratios, odds ratios, differences of risks or means) but which is also used to pool proportions. Metaprop implements procedures which are specific to binomial data and allows computation of exact binomial and score test-based confidence intervals. It provides appropriate methods for dealing with proportions close to or at the margins where the normal approximation procedures often break down, by use of the binomial distribution to model the within-study variability or by allowing Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation to stabilize the variances. Metaprop was applied on two published meta-analyses: 1) prevalence of HPV-infection in women with a Pap smear showing ASC-US; 2) cure rate after treatment for cervical precancer using cold coagulation. The first meta-analysis showed a pooled HPV-prevalence of 43% (95% CI: 38%-48%). In the second meta-analysis, the pooled percentage of cured women was 94% (95% CI: 86%-97%). By using metaprop, no studies with 0% or 100% proportions were excluded from the meta-analysis. Furthermore, study specific and pooled confidence intervals always were within admissible values, contrary to the original publication, where metan was used.

Seven lessons from manyfield inflation in random potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Mafalda; Frazer, Jonathan; Marsh, M. C. David

2018-01-01

We study inflation in models with many interacting fields subject to randomly generated scalar potentials. We use methods from non-equilibrium random matrix theory to construct the potentials and an adaption of the `transport method' to evolve the two-point correlators during inflation. This construction allows, for the first time, for an explicit study of models with up to 100 interacting fields supporting a period of `approximately saddle-point' inflation. We determine the statistical predictions for observables by generating over 30,000 models with 2–100 fields supporting at least 60 efolds of inflation. These studies lead us to seven lessons: i) Manyfield inflation is not single-field inflation, ii) The larger the number of fields, the simpler and sharper the predictions, iii) Planck compatibility is not rare, but future experiments may rule out this class of models, iv) The smoother the potentials, the sharper the predictions, v) Hyperparameters can transition from stiff to sloppy, vi) Despite tachyons, isocurvature can decay, vii) Eigenvalue repulsion drives the predictions. We conclude that many of the `generic predictions' of single-field inflation can be emergent features of complex inflation models.

Does Education Corrupt? Theories of Grade Inflation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oleinik, Anton

2009-01-01

Several theories of grade inflation are discussed in this review article. It is argued that grade inflation results from the substitution of criteria specific to the search for truth by criteria of quality control generated outside of academia. Particular mechanisms of the grade inflation that occurs when a university is transformed into a…

A horizontal inflatable habitat for SEI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Kriss J.

The inflatable habitat described in this paper is a horizontally-oriented cylindrical pneumatic structure. It is part of NASA's ongoing effort to study inflatables as alternative habitats for the Space Exploration Initiative. This inflatable habitat provides a living and working environment for a crew of 12. It is an 8-m diameter by 45.34-m cylinder containing 2145 cu m of volume. Two levels of living and working areas make up the 547 sq m of floor space.

The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

2014-11-01

We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of `chaotic inflation'.

Possibility and challenges of conversion of current virus species names to Linnaean binomials

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Postler; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sina; Benko, Maria; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Remi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; De la Torre, Juan Carlos; DeRisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Durrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sebastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balazs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Daohong; Kobinger, Gary P.; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; Paweska, Janusz T.; Peters, C.J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfacon, Helene; Salvato , Maria; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark; Stone, D.M.; Takada , Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, N.; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Victor E.; Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield , Anna E.; Zerbini, Francisco Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

2017-01-01

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment.

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

PubMed Central

Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sbina; Benkő, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiāng, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M.; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R.; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; PaWeska, Janusz T.; Peters, Clarence J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli R.; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S.; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark D.; Stone, David M.; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E.; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E.; Zerbini, F. Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

2017-01-01

Abstract Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. PMID:27798405

A novel stent inflation protocol improves long-term outcomes compared with rapid inflation/deflation deployment method.

PubMed

Vallurupalli, Srikanth; Kasula, Srikanth; Kumar Agarwal, Shiv; Pothineni, Naga Venkata K; Abualsuod, Amjad; Hakeem, Abdul; Ahmed, Zubair; Uretsky, Barry F

2017-08-01

High-pressure inflation for coronary stent deployment is universally performed. However, the duration of inflation is variable and does not take into account differences in lesion compliance. We developed a standardized "pressure optimization protocol" (POP) using inflation pressure stability rather than an arbitrary inflation time or angiographic balloon appearance for stent deployment. Whether this approach improves long-term outcomes is unknown. 792 patients who underwent PCI using either rapid inflation/deflation (n = 376) or POP (n = 416) between January 2009 and March 2014 were included. Exclusion criteria included PCI for acute myocardial infarction, in-stent restenosis, chronic total occlusion, left main, and saphenous vein graft lesions. Primary endpoint was target vessel failure [TVF = combined end point of target vessel revascularization (TVR), myocardial infarction, and cardiac death]. Outcomes were analyzed in the entire cohort and in a propensity analysis. Stent implantation using POP with a median follow-up of 1317 days was associated with lower TVF compared with rapid inflation/deflation (10.1 vs. 17.8%, P < 0.0001). This difference was driven by a decrease in TVR (7 vs. 10.6%, P = 0.0016) and cardiac death (2.9 vs. 5.8%, P = 0.017) while there was no difference in myocardial infarction (1 vs. 1.9%, P = 0.19). In the Cox regression model, deployment using POP was the only independent predictor of reduced TVF (HR 0.43; 0.29-0.64; P < 0.0001). In the propensity analysis (330 patients per group) TVF remained lower with POP vs. rapid inflation/deflation (10 vs. 18%, P < 0.0001). Stent deployment using POP led to reduced TVF compared to rapid I/D. These results recommend this method to improve long-term outcomes. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Inflatable Vehicles for In-Situ Exploration of Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, J. A.

2001-01-01

Space Inflatable vehicles have been finding popularity in recent years for applications as varied as spacecraft antennas, space-based telescopes, solar sails, and manned habitats. Another branch of space inflatable technology has also considered developing ambient-filled, solar balloons for Mars as well as ambient-filled inflatable rovers. More recently, some of these inflatable technologies have been applied to the outer solar system bodies with the result that there are some rather unique and compelling inflatable mission capabilities for in situ explorations of Titan, Triton, Uranus, and Neptune. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

CMB spectral distortion constraints on thermal inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, Kihyun; Stewart, Ewan D.; Hong, Sungwook E.

2017-08-01

Thermal inflation is a second epoch of exponential expansion at typical energy scales V {sup 1/4} ∼ 10{sup 6} {sup ∼} {sup 8} GeV. If the usual primordial inflation is followed by thermal inflation, the primordial power spectrum is only modestly redshifted on large scales, but strongly suppressed on scales smaller than the horizon size at the beginning of thermal inflation, k > k {sub b} = a {sub b} H {sub b}. We calculate the spectral distortion of the cosmic microwave background generated by the dissipation of acoustic waves in this context. For k {sub b} || 10{sup 3}more » Mpc{sup −1}, thermal inflation results in a large suppression of the μ-distortion amplitude, predicting that it falls well below the standard value of μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8}. Thus, future spectral distortion experiments, similar to PIXIE, can place new limits on the thermal inflation scenario, constraining k {sub b} ∼> 10{sup 3} Mpc{sup −1} if μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8} were found.« less

Inflatable Antennas Support Emergency Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2010-01-01

Glenn Research Center awarded Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts to ManTech SRS Technologies, of Newport Beach, California, to develop thin film inflatable antennas for space communication. With additional funding, SRS modified the concepts for ground-based inflatable antennas. GATR (Ground Antenna Transmit and Receive) Technologies, of Huntsville, Alabama, licensed the technology and refined it to become the world s first inflatable antenna certified by the Federal Communications Commission. Capable of providing Internet access, voice over Internet protocol, e-mail, video teleconferencing, broadcast television, and other high-bandwidth communications, the systems have provided communication during the wildfires in California, after Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi, and following the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE)

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-05-20

S77-E-5033 (20 May 1996) --- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload is backdropped against a wall of grayish clouds. The view was photographed with an Electronic Still Camera (ESC) and downlinked to flight controllers on the first full day of orbital operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

Homogeneous cosmological models and new inflation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, Michael S.; Widrow, Lawrence M.

1986-01-01

The promise of the inflationary-universe scenario is to free the present state of the universe from extreme dependence upon initial data. Paradoxically, inflation is usually analyzed in the context of the homogeneous and isotropic Robertson-Walker cosmological models. It is shown that all but a small subset of the homogeneous models undergo inflation. Any initial anisotropy is so strongly damped that if sufficient inflation occurs to solve the flatness and horizon problems, the universe today would still be very isotropic.

Estimating a Logistic Discrimination Functions When One of the Training Samples Is Subject to Misclassification: A Maximum Likelihood Approach.

PubMed

Nagelkerke, Nico; Fidler, Vaclav

2015-01-01

The problem of discrimination and classification is central to much of epidemiology. Here we consider the estimation of a logistic regression/discrimination function from training samples, when one of the training samples is subject to misclassification or mislabeling, e.g. diseased individuals are incorrectly classified/labeled as healthy controls. We show that this leads to zero-inflated binomial model with a defective logistic regression or discrimination function, whose parameters can be estimated using standard statistical methods such as maximum likelihood. These parameters can be used to estimate the probability of true group membership among those, possibly erroneously, classified as controls. Two examples are analyzed and discussed. A simulation study explores properties of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates and the estimates of the number of mislabeled observations.

Therapeutic Play at Inflatable Playgrounds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yavorcik, Carin

2009-01-01

The environment at indoor inflatable playgrounds, featuring giant bounce houses and slides, can become an ideal place for children with autism to receive helpful sensations. This is the reasoning behind Sensory Nights hosted by the Autism Society of America and Pump It Up, a national franchise of giant, indoor inflatable playgrounds. The private…

Football goal distributions and extremal statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenhough, J.; Birch, P. C.; Chapman, S. C.; Rowlands, G.

2002-12-01

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated processes. Log-normal distributions cannot include zero scores and here we find that the PDFs are consistent with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/71-2000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics.

A new approach for handling longitudinal count data with zero-inflation and overdispersion: poisson geometric process model.

PubMed

Wan, Wai-Yin; Chan, Jennifer S K

2009-08-01

For time series of count data, correlated measurements, clustering as well as excessive zeros occur simultaneously in biomedical applications. Ignoring such effects might contribute to misleading treatment outcomes. A generalized mixture Poisson geometric process (GMPGP) model and a zero-altered mixture Poisson geometric process (ZMPGP) model are developed from the geometric process model, which was originally developed for modelling positive continuous data and was extended to handle count data. These models are motivated by evaluating the trend development of new tumour counts for bladder cancer patients as well as by identifying useful covariates which affect the count level. The models are implemented using Bayesian method with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and are assessed using deviance information criterion (DIC).

46 CFR 506.3 - Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment. 506.3... PENALTY INFLATION ADJUSTMENT § 506.3 Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment. The Commission shall... each civil monetary penalty provided by law within the jurisdiction of the Commission by the inflation...

A Study of the Development of Steady and Periodic Unsteady Turbulent Wakes Through Curved Channels at Positive, Zero, and Negative Streamwise Pressure Gradients, Part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schobeiri, M. T.; John, J.

1996-01-01

The turbomachinery wake flow development is largely influenced by streamline curvature and streamwise pressure gradient. The objective of this investigation is to study the development of the wake under the influence of streamline curvature and streamwise pressure gradient. The experimental investigation is carried out in two phases. The first phase involves the study of the wake behind a stationary circular cylinder (steady wake) in curved channels at positive, zero, and negative streamwise pressure gradients. The mean velocity and Reynolds stress components are measured using a X-hot-film probe. The measured quantities obtained in probe coordinates are transformed to a curvilinear coordinate system along the wake centerline and are presented in similarity coordinates. The results of the steady wakes suggest strong asymmetry in velocity and Reynolds stress components. However, the velocity defect profiles in similarity coordinates are almost symmetrical and follow the same distribution as the zero pressure gradient straight wake. The results of Reynolds stress distributions show higher values on the inner side of the wake than the outer side. Other quantities, including the decay of maximum velocity defect, growth of wake width, and wake integral parameters, are also presented for the three different pressure gradient cases of steady wake. The decay rate of velocity defect is fastest for the negative streamwise pressure gradient case and slowest for the positive pressure gradient case. Conversely, the growth of the wake width is fastest for the positive streamwise pressure gradient case and slowest for the negative streamwise pressure gradient. The second phase studies the development of periodic unsteady wakes generated by the circular cylinders of the rotating wake generator in a curved channel at zero streamwise pressure gradient. Instantaneous velocity components of the periodic unsteady wakes, measured with a stationary X-hot-film probe, are analyzed by the

Updates in inflatable penile prostheses.

PubMed

Henry, Gerard D; Wilson, Steven K

2007-11-01

Throughout history, many attempts to correct erectile dysfunction (ED) have been recorded. For the last 35 years, intracavernosal inflatable prostheses have been used, and these devices have undergone almost constant enhancement. The three-piece inflatable penile prosthesis has the highest patient satisfaction rates and lowest mechanical revision rates of almost any medically implanted device.

Macroeconomic susceptibility, inflation, and aggregate supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Raymond J.

2017-03-01

We unify aggregate-supply dynamics as a time-dependent susceptibility-mediated relationship between inflation and aggregate economic output. In addition to representing well various observations of inflation-output dynamics this parsimonious formalism provides a straightforward derivation of popular representations of aggregate-supply dynamics and a natural basis for economic-agent expectations as an element of inflation formation. Our formalism also illuminates questions of causality and time-correlation that challenge central banks for whom aggregate-supply dynamics is a key constraint in their goal of achieving macroeconomic stability.

IAE - Inflatable Antenna Experiment

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-05-20

STS077-150-094 (20 May 1996) --- Following its deployment from the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the Spartan 207/Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) payload is backdropped over the Mississippi River and metropolitan St. Louis. The metropolitan area lies just below the gold-colored Spartan at bottom of photo. The view was photographed with a large format still camera on the first full day of in-space operations by the six-member crew. Managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spartan is designed to provide short-duration, free-flight opportunities for a variety of scientific studies. The Spartan configuration on this flight is unique in that the IAE is part of an additional separate unit which is ejected once the experiment is completed. The IAE experiment will lay the groundwork for future technology development in inflatable space structures, which will be launched and then inflated like a balloon on-orbit.

Binomial Coefficients Modulo a Prime--A Visualization Approach to Undergraduate Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bardzell, Michael; Poimenidou, Eirini

2011-01-01

In this article we present, as a case study, results of undergraduate research involving binomial coefficients modulo a prime "p." We will discuss how undergraduates were involved in the project, even with a minimal mathematical background beforehand. There are two main avenues of exploration described to discover these binomial…

Hill crossing during preheating after hilltop inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Orani, Stefano, E-mail: stefan.antusch@unibas.ch, E-mail: david.nolde@unibas.ch, E-mail: stefano.orani@unibas.ch

2015-06-01

In ''hilltop inflation'', inflation takes place when the inflaton field slowly rolls from close to a maximum of its potential (i.e. the ''hilltop'') towards its minimum. When the inflaton potential is associated with a phase transition, possible topological defects produced during this phase transition, such as domain walls, are efficiently diluted during inflation. It is typically assumed that they also do not reform after inflation, i.e. that the inflaton field stays on its side of the ''hill'', finally performing damped oscillations around the minimum of the potential. In this paper we study the linear and the non-linear phases of preheatingmore » after hilltop inflation. We find that the fluctuations of the inflaton field during the tachyonic oscillation phase grow strong enough to allow the inflaton field to form regions in position space where it crosses ''over the top of the hill'' towards the ''wrong vacuum''. We investigate the formation and behaviour of these overshooting regions using lattice simulations: rather than durable domain walls, these regions form oscillon-like structures (i.e. localized bubbles that oscillate between the two vacua) which should be included in a careful study of preheating in hilltop inflation.« less

The observational constraint on constant-roll inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Qing

2018-07-01

We discuss the constant-roll inflation with constant ɛ2 and constant \\bar η . By using the method of Bessel function approximation, the analytical expressions for the scalar and tensor power spectra, the scalar and tensor spectral tilts, and the tensor to scalar ratio are derived up to the first order of ɛ1. The model with constant ɛ2 is ruled out by the observations at the 3σ confidence level, and the model with constant \\bar η is consistent with the observations at the 1σ confidence level. The potential for the model with constant \\bar η is also obtained from the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Although the observations constrain the constant-roll inflation to be the slow-roll inflation, the n s- r results from the constant-roll inflation are not the same as those from the slow-roll inflation even when \\bar η 0.01.

Fuller Employment with Less Inflation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegel, Irving H.

This series of 10 essays, written at various times since the mid-1960s, explores the U.S. economy's proneness to both high inflation and high unemployment during this period. The essays present ideas that the author believes could have reined in price increases in the early stages, and that presently could speed the reduction of inflation and…

Inflation in the standard cosmological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uzan, Jean-Philippe

2015-12-01

The inflationary paradigm is now part of the standard cosmological model as a description of its primordial phase. While its original motivation was to solve the standard problems of the hot big bang model, it was soon understood that it offers a natural theory for the origin of the large-scale structure of the universe. Most models rely on a slow-rolling scalar field and enjoy very generic predictions. Besides, all the matter of the universe is produced by the decay of the inflaton field at the end of inflation during a phase of reheating. These predictions can be (and are) tested from their imprint of the large-scale structure and in particular the cosmic microwave background. Inflation stands as a window in physics where both general relativity and quantum field theory are at work and which can be observationally studied. It connects cosmology with high-energy physics. Today most models are constructed within extensions of the standard model, such as supersymmetry or string theory. Inflation also disrupts our vision of the universe, in particular with the ideas of chaotic inflation and eternal inflation that tend to promote the image of a very inhomogeneous universe with fractal structure on a large scale. This idea is also at the heart of further speculations, such as the multiverse. This introduction summarizes the connections between inflation and the hot big bang model and details the basics of its dynamics and predictions. xml:lang="fr"

Dynamic Deployment Simulations of Inflatable Space Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, John T.

2005-01-01

The feasibility of using Control Volume (CV) method and the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) method in LSDYNA to simulate the dynamic deployment of inflatable space structures is investigated. The CV and ALE methods were used to predict the inflation deployments of three folded tube configurations. The CV method was found to be a simple and computationally efficient method that may be adequate for modeling slow inflation deployment sine the inertia of the inflation gas can be neglected. The ALE method was found to be very computationally intensive since it involves the solving of three conservative equations of fluid as well as dealing with complex fluid structure interactions.

Toward inflation models compatible with the no-boundary proposal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, Dong-il; Yeom, Dong-han, E-mail: dongil.j.hwang@gmail.com, E-mail: innocent.yeom@gmail.com

2014-06-01

In this paper, we investigate various inflation models in the context of the no-boundary proposal. We propose that a good inflation model should satisfy three conditions: observational constraints, plausible initial conditions, and naturalness of the model. For various inflation models, we assign the probability to each initial condition using the no-boundary proposal and define a quantitative standard, typicality, to check whether the model satisfies the observational constraints with probable initial conditions. There are three possible ways to satisfy the typicality criterion: there was pre-inflation near the high energy scale, the potential is finely tuned or the inflationary field space ismore » unbounded, or there are sufficient number of fields that contribute to inflation. The no-boundary proposal rejects some of naive inflation models, explains some of traditional doubts on inflation, and possibly, can have observational consequences.« less

New Old Inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dvali, Gia

2003-10-03

We propose a new class of inflationary solutions to the standard cosmological problems (horizon, flatness, monopole,...), based on a modification of old inflation. These models do not require a potential which satisfies the normal inflationary slow-roll conditions. Our universe arises from a single tunneling event as the inflaton leaves the false vacuum. Subsequent dynamics (arising from either the oscillations of the inflaton field or thermal effects) keep a second field trapped in a false minimum, resulting in an evanescent period of inflation (with roughly 50 e-foldings) inside the bubble. This easily allows the bubble to grow sufficiently large to containmore » our present horizon volume. Reheating is accomplished when the inflaton driving the last stage of inflation rolls down to the true vacuum, and adiabatic density perturbations arise from moduli-dependent Yukawa couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Our scenario has several robust predictions, including virtual absence of gravity waves, a possible absence of tilt in scalar perturbations, and a higher degree of non-Gaussianity than other models. It also naturally incorporates a solution to the cosmological moduli problem.« less

The structural characteristics of inflatable beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicker, William J.

1992-08-01

Two inflatable beams are designed and fabricated from polyethylene of ultrahigh molecular weight, and the structures are tested against similar composite and metal-alloy tubes. Specific attention is given to the choice of material that insures material stiffness, good strength-to-weight ratio, creep resistance, and durability. A cloth beam is built from a commercial extended-chain polyethylene fiber, and the inflated beams are tested by means of three- and four-point loading to measure bending and shear deformation. Comparing geometrically similar structures shows that the fabric beams can be about 35 percent as stiff as aluminum for small deflections. The inflatable beams have elastic stiffness coefficients five and two times higher than those for nylon and polyester tubes, respectively. Inflatable structures are concluded to hold promise for lightweight aerospace applications which demand small storage areas.

A general framework of automorphic inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimmrigk, Rolf

2016-05-01

Automorphic inflation is an application of the framework of automorphic scalar field theory, based on the theory of automorphic forms and representations. In this paper the general framework of automorphic and modular inflation is described in some detail, with emphasis on the resulting stratification of the space of scalar field theories in terms of the group theoretic data associated to the shift symmetry, as well as the automorphic data that specifies the potential. The class of theories based on Eisenstein series provides a natural generalization of the model of j-inflation considered previously.

Inflation in a closed universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratra, Bharat

2017-11-01

To derive a power spectrum for energy density inhomogeneities in a closed universe, we study a spatially-closed inflation-modified hot big bang model whose evolutionary history is divided into three epochs: an early slowly-rolling scalar field inflation epoch and the usual radiation and nonrelativistic matter epochs. (For our purposes it is not necessary to consider a final dark energy dominated epoch.) We derive general solutions of the relativistic linear perturbation equations in each epoch. The constants of integration in the inflation epoch solutions are determined from de Sitter invariant quantum-mechanical initial conditions in the Lorentzian section of the inflating closed de Sitter space derived from Hawking's prescription that the quantum state of the universe only include field configurations that are regular on the Euclidean (de Sitter) sphere section. The constants of integration in the radiation and matter epoch solutions are determined from joining conditions derived by requiring that the linear perturbation equations remain nonsingular at the transitions between epochs. The matter epoch power spectrum of gauge-invariant energy density inhomogeneities is not a power law, and depends on spatial wave number in the way expected for a generalization to the closed model of the standard flat-space scale-invariant power spectrum. The power spectrum we derive appears to differ from a number of other closed inflation model power spectra derived assuming different (presumably non de Sitter invariant) initial conditions.

76 FR 74625 - Civil Monetary Penalties Inflation Adjustment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-01

...-2011] RIN 1125-AA69 Civil Monetary Penalties Inflation Adjustment AGENCIES: U.S. Customs and Border... adjust for inflation certain civil monetary penalties assessed under the Immigration and Nationality Act... assessed under the INA. The Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (Adjustment Act...

Grade Inflation in Higher Education: A Comparative Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolevzon, Michael S.

1981-01-01

Ten departments with high grade inflation rates during a seven-year period were compared with 10 departments within the same university displaying lower grade inflation rates. Higher grade inflation rates were related to perceived increases in the demands placed upon the academicians' role. (Author/MLW)

Using the Binomial Series to Prove the Arithmetic Mean-Geometric Mean Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Persky, Ronald L.

2003-01-01

In 1968, Leon Gerber compared (1 + x)[superscript a] to its kth partial sum as a binomial series. His result is stated and, as an application of this result, a proof of the arithmetic mean-geometric mean inequality is presented.

Regulation of exocytotic fusion by cell inflation.

PubMed Central

Solsona, C; Innocenti, B; Fernández, J M

1998-01-01

We have inflated patch-clamped mast cells by 3.8 +/- 1.6 times their volume by applying a hydrostatic pressure of 5-15 cm H2O to the interior of the patch pipette. Inflation did not cause changes in the cell membrane conductance and caused only a small reversible change in the cell membrane capacitance (36 +/- 5 fF/cm H2O). The specific cell membrane capacitance of inflated cells was found to be 0.5 microF/cm2. High-resolution capacitance recordings showed that inflation reduced the frequency of exocytotic fusion events by approximately 70-fold, with the remaining fusion events showing an unusual time course. Shortly after the pressure was returned to 0 cm H2O, mast cells regained their normal size and appearance and degranulated completely, even after remaining inflated for up to 60 min. We interpret these observations as an indication that inflated mast cells reversibly disassemble the structures that regulate exocytotic fusion. Upon returning to its normal size, the cell cytosol reassembles the fusion pore scaffolds and allows exocytosis to proceed, suggesting that exocytotic fusion does not require soluble proteins. Reassembly of the fusion pore can be prevented by inflating the cells with solutions containing the protease pronase, which completely blocked exocytosis. We also interpret these results as evidence that the activity of the fusion pore is sensitive to the tension of the plasma membrane. PMID:9533718

Cytomegalovirus Reinfections Stimulate CD8 T-Memory Inflation.

PubMed

Trgovcich, Joanne; Kincaid, Michelle; Thomas, Alicia; Griessl, Marion; Zimmerman, Peter; Dwivedi, Varun; Bergdall, Valerie; Klenerman, Paul; Cook, Charles H

2016-01-01

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) has been shown to induce large populations of CD8 T-effector memory cells that unlike central memory persist in large quantities following infection, a phenomenon commonly termed "memory inflation". Although murine models to date have shown very large and persistent CMV-specific T-cell expansions following infection, there is considerable variability in CMV-specific T-memory responses in humans. Historically such memory inflation in humans has been assumed a consequence of reactivation events during the life of the host. Because basic information about CMV infection/re-infection and reactivation in immune competent humans is not available, we used a murine model to test how primary infection, reinfection, and reactivation stimuli influence memory inflation. We show that low titer infections induce "partial" memory inflation of both mCMV specific CD8 T-cells and antibody. We show further that reinfection with different strains can boost partial memory inflation. Finally, we show preliminary results suggesting that a single strong reactivation stimulus does not stimulate memory inflation. Altogether, our results suggest that while high titer primary infections can induce memory inflation, reinfections during the life of a host may be more important than previously appreciated.

Intermediate inflation from a non-canonical scalar field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rezazadeh, K.; Karami, K.; Karimi, P., E-mail: rezazadeh86@gmail.com, E-mail: KKarami@uok.ac.ir, E-mail: parvin.karimi67@yahoo.com

2015-09-01

We study the intermediate inflation in a non-canonical scalar field framework with a power-like Lagrangian. We show that in contrast with the standard canonical intermediate inflation, our non-canonical model is compatible with the observational results of Planck 2015. Also, we estimate the equilateral non-Gaussianity parameter which is in well agreement with the prediction of Planck 2015. Then, we obtain an approximation for the energy scale at the initial time of inflation and show that it can be of order of the Planck energy scale, i.e. M{sub P} ∼ 10{sup 18}GeV. We will see that after a short period of time, inflation entersmore » in the slow-roll regime that its energy scale is of order M{sub P}/100 ∼ 10{sup 16}GeV and the horizon exit takes place in this energy scale. We also examine an idea in our non-canonical model to overcome the central drawback of intermediate inflation which is the fact that inflation never ends. We solve this problem without disturbing significantly the nature of the intermediate inflation until the time of horizon exit.« less