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Sample records for zero-inflated negative binomial

  1. Modeling Tetanus Neonatorum case using the regression of negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amaliana, Luthfatul; Sa'adah, Umu; Wayan Surya Wardhani, Ni

    2017-12-01

    Tetanus Neonatorum is an infectious disease that can be prevented by immunization. The number of Tetanus Neonatorum cases in East Java Province is the highest in Indonesia until 2015. Tetanus Neonatorum data contain over dispersion and big enough proportion of zero-inflation. Negative Binomial (NB) regression is an alternative method when over dispersion happens in Poisson regression. However, the data containing over dispersion and zero-inflation are more appropriately analyzed by using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression. The purpose of this study are: (1) to model Tetanus Neonatorum cases in East Java Province with 71.05 percent proportion of zero-inflation by using NB and ZINB regression, (2) to obtain the best model. The result of this study indicates that ZINB is better than NB regression with smaller AIC.

  2. Marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial regression with application to dental caries

    PubMed Central

    Preisser, John S.; Das, Kalyan; Long, D. Leann; Divaris, Kimon

    2015-01-01

    The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model (ZINB) is often employed in diverse fields such as dentistry, health care utilization, highway safety, and medicine to examine relationships between exposures of interest and overdispersed count outcomes exhibiting many zeros. The regression coefficients of ZINB have latent class interpretations for a susceptible subpopulation at risk for the disease/condition under study with counts generated from a negative binomial distribution and for a non-susceptible subpopulation that provides only zero counts. The ZINB parameters, however, are not well-suited for estimating overall exposure effects, specifically, in quantifying the effect of an explanatory variable in the overall mixture population. In this paper, a marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial regression (MZINB) model for independent responses is proposed to model the population marginal mean count directly, providing straightforward inference for overall exposure effects based on maximum likelihood estimation. Through simulation studies, the finite sample performance of MZINB is compared to marginalized zero-inflated Poisson, Poisson, and negative binomial regression. The MZINB model is applied in the evaluation of a school-based fluoride mouthrinse program on dental caries in 677 children. PMID:26568034

  3. The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

    PubMed

    Sheu, Mei-Ling; Hu, Teh-Wei; Keeler, Theodore E; Ong, Michael; Sung, Hai-Yen

    2004-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to determine the price sensitivity of smokers in their consumption of cigarettes, using evidence from a major increase in California cigarette prices due to Proposition 10 and the Tobacco Settlement. The study sample consists of individual survey data from Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFS) and price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1996 and 1999. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was applied for the statistical analysis. The statistical model showed that price did not have an effect on reducing the estimated prevalence of smoking. However, it indicated that among smokers the price elasticity was at the level of -0.46 and statistically significant. Since smoking prevalence is significantly lower than it was a decade ago, price increases are becoming less effective as an inducement for hard-core smokers to quit, although they may respond by decreasing consumption. For those who only smoke occasionally (many of them being young adults) price increases alone may not be an effective inducement to quit smoking. Additional underlying behavioral factors need to be identified so that more effective anti-smoking strategies can be developed.

  4. Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

    PubMed

    Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

    2014-09-01

    Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Prediction of vehicle crashes by drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations in Korea using a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

    PubMed

    Kim, Dae-Hwan; Ramjan, Lucie M; Mak, Kwok-Kei

    2016-01-01

    Traffic safety is a significant public health challenge, and vehicle crashes account for the majority of injuries. This study aims to identify whether drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations may predict vehicle crashes in Korea. A total of 500,000 drivers were randomly selected from the 11.6 million driver records of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea. Records of traffic crashes were obtained from the archives of the Korea Insurance Development Institute. After matching the past violation history for the period 2004-2005 with the number of crashes in year 2006, a total of 488,139 observations were used for the analysis. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine the incident risk ratio (IRR) of vehicle crashes by past violations of individual drivers. The included covariates were driver's age, gender, district of residence, vehicle choice, and driving experience. Drivers violating (1) a hit-and-run or drunk driving regulation at least once and (2) a signal, central line, or speed regulation more than once had a higher risk of a vehicle crash with respective IRRs of 1.06 and 1.15. Furthermore, female gender, a younger age, fewer years of driving experience, and middle-sized vehicles were all significantly associated with a higher likelihood of vehicle crashes. Drivers' demographic characteristics and past traffic violations could predict vehicle crashes in Korea. Greater resources should be assigned to the provision of traffic safety education programs for the high-risk driver groups.

  6. Regular exercise and related factors in patients with Parkinson's disease: Applying zero-inflated negative binomial modeling of exercise count data.

    PubMed

    Lee, JuHee; Park, Chang Gi; Choi, Moonki

    2016-05-01

    This study was conducted to identify risk factors that influence regular exercise among patients with Parkinson's disease in Korea. Parkinson's disease is prevalent in the elderly, and may lead to a sedentary lifestyle. Exercise can enhance physical and psychological health. However, patients with Parkinson's disease are less likely to exercise than are other populations due to physical disability. A secondary data analysis and cross-sectional descriptive study were conducted. A convenience sample of 106 patients with Parkinson's disease was recruited at an outpatient neurology clinic of a tertiary hospital in Korea. Demographic characteristics, disease-related characteristics (including disease duration and motor symptoms), self-efficacy for exercise, balance, and exercise level were investigated. Negative binomial regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression for exercise count data were utilized to determine factors involved in exercise. The mean age of participants was 65.85 ± 8.77 years, and the mean duration of Parkinson's disease was 7.23 ± 6.02 years. Most participants indicated that they engaged in regular exercise (80.19%). Approximately half of participants exercised at least 5 days per week for 30 min, as recommended (51.9%). Motor symptoms were a significant predictor of exercise in the count model, and self-efficacy for exercise was a significant predictor of exercise in the zero model. Severity of motor symptoms was related to frequency of exercise. Self-efficacy contributed to the probability of exercise. Symptom management and improvement of self-efficacy for exercise are important to encourage regular exercise in patients with Parkinson's disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Estimating cavity tree and snag abundance using negative binomial regression models and nearest neighbor imputation methods

    Treesearch

    Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara M. Barrett

    2009-01-01

    Cavity tree and snag abundance data are highly variable and contain many zero observations. We predict cavity tree and snag abundance from variables that are readily available from forest cover maps or remotely sensed data using negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated NB, and zero-altered NB (ZANB) regression models as well as nearest neighbor (NN) imputation methods....

  8. Negative Binomial Process Count and Mixture Modeling.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Mingyuan; Carin, Lawrence

    2015-02-01

    The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process for count modeling. A draw from the NB process consists of a Poisson distributed finite number of distinct atoms, each of which is associated with a logarithmic distributed number of data samples. We reveal relationships between various count- and mixture-modeling distributions and construct a Poisson-logarithmic bivariate distribution that connects the NB and Chinese restaurant table distributions. Fundamental properties of the models are developed, and we derive efficient Bayesian inference. It is shown that with augmentation and normalization, the NB process and gamma-NB process can be reduced to the Dirichlet process and hierarchical Dirichlet process, respectively. These relationships highlight theoretical, structural, and computational advantages of the NB process. A variety of NB processes, including the beta-geometric, beta-NB, marked-beta-NB, marked-gamma-NB and zero-inflated-NB processes, with distinct sharing mechanisms, are also constructed. These models are applied to topic modeling, with connections made to existing algorithms under Poisson factor analysis. Example results show the importance of inferring both the NB dispersion and probability parameters.

  9. A New Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Methodology for Latent Category Identification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blanchard, Simon J.; DeSarbo, Wayne S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic…

  10. A new zero-inflated negative binomial methodology for latent category identification.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Simon J; DeSarbo, Wayne S

    2013-04-01

    We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic example and a consumer psychology study involving categories of restaurant brands illustrate how the application of the proposed methodology to the new sorting task can account for a variety of categorization phenomena including multiple category memberships and for heterogeneity through individual differences in the saliency of latent category structures.

  11. Modeling Zero-Inflated and Overdispersed Count Data: An Empirical Study of School Suspensions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Desjardins, Christopher David

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to develop a statistical model that best explains variability in the number of school days suspended. Number of school days suspended is a count variable that may be zero-inflated and overdispersed relative to a Poisson model. Four models were examined: Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson hurdle, and negative…

  12. Zero-inflated count models for longitudinal measurements with heterogeneous random effects.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Huirong; Luo, Sheng; DeSantis, Stacia M

    2017-08-01

    Longitudinal zero-inflated count data arise frequently in substance use research when assessing the effects of behavioral and pharmacological interventions. Zero-inflated count models (e.g. zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial) with random effects have been developed to analyze this type of data. In random effects zero-inflated count models, the random effects covariance matrix is typically assumed to be homogeneous (constant across subjects). However, in many situations this matrix may be heterogeneous (differ by measured covariates). In this paper, we extend zero-inflated count models to account for random effects heterogeneity by modeling their variance as a function of covariates. We show via simulation that ignoring intervention and covariate-specific heterogeneity can produce biased estimates of covariate and random effect estimates. Moreover, those biased estimates can be rectified by correctly modeling the random effects covariance structure. The methodological development is motivated by and applied to the Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions for Alcohol Dependence (COMBINE) study, the largest clinical trial of alcohol dependence performed in United States with 1383 individuals.

  13. Statistical inference involving binomial and negative binomial parameters.

    PubMed

    García-Pérez, Miguel A; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

    2009-05-01

    Statistical inference about two binomial parameters implies that they are both estimated by binomial sampling. There are occasions in which one aims at testing the equality of two binomial parameters before and after the occurrence of the first success along a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In these cases, the binomial parameter before the first success is estimated by negative binomial sampling whereas that after the first success is estimated by binomial sampling, and both estimates are related. This paper derives statistical tools to test two hypotheses, namely, that both binomial parameters equal some specified value and that both parameters are equal though unknown. Simulation studies are used to show that in small samples both tests are accurate in keeping the nominal Type-I error rates, and also to determine sample size requirements to detect large, medium, and small effects with adequate power. Additional simulations also show that the tests are sufficiently robust to certain violations of their assumptions.

  14. Distinguishing between Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wroughton, Jacqueline; Cole, Tarah

    2013-01-01

    Recognizing the differences between three discrete distributions (Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial) can be challenging for students. We present an activity designed to help students differentiate among these distributions. In addition, we present assessment results in the form of pre- and post-tests that were designed to assess the…

  15. Observation weights unlock bulk RNA-seq tools for zero inflation and single-cell applications.

    PubMed

    Van den Berge, Koen; Perraudeau, Fanny; Soneson, Charlotte; Love, Michael I; Risso, Davide; Vert, Jean-Philippe; Robinson, Mark D; Dudoit, Sandrine; Clement, Lieven

    2018-02-26

    Dropout events in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) cause many transcripts to go undetected and induce an excess of zero read counts, leading to power issues in differential expression (DE) analysis. This has triggered the development of bespoke scRNA-seq DE methods to cope with zero inflation. Recent evaluations, however, have shown that dedicated scRNA-seq tools provide no advantage compared to traditional bulk RNA-seq tools. We introduce a weighting strategy, based on a zero-inflated negative binomial model, that identifies excess zero counts and generates gene- and cell-specific weights to unlock bulk RNA-seq DE pipelines for zero-inflated data, boosting performance for scRNA-seq.

  16. Zero-truncated negative binomial - Erlang distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodhisuwan, Winai; Pudprommarat, Chookait; Bodhisuwan, Rujira; Saothayanun, Luckhana

    2017-11-01

    The zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution is introduced. It is developed from negative binomial-Erlang distribution. In this work, the probability mass function is derived and some properties are included. The parameters of the zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution are estimated by using the maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, the proposed distribution is applied to real data, the number of methamphetamine in the Bangkok, Thailand. Based on the results, it shows that the zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution provided a better fit than the zero-truncated Poisson, zero-truncated negative binomial, zero-truncated generalized negative-binomial and zero-truncated Poisson-Lindley distributions for this data.

  17. Distribution-free Inference of Zero-inated Binomial Data for Longitudinal Studies.

    PubMed

    He, H; Wang, W J; Hu, J; Gallop, R; Crits-Christoph, P; Xia, Y L

    2015-10-01

    Count reponses with structural zeros are very common in medical and psychosocial research, especially in alcohol and HIV research, and the zero-inflated poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models are widely used for modeling such outcomes. However, as alcohol drinking outcomes such as days of drinkings are counts within a given period, their distributions are bounded above by an upper limit (total days in the period) and thus inherently follow a binomial or zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) distribution, rather than a Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution, in the presence of structural zeros. In this paper, we develop a new semiparametric approach for modeling zero-inflated binomial (ZIB)-like count responses for cross-sectional as well as longitudinal data. We illustrate this approach with both simulated and real study data.

  18. Variable selection for distribution-free models for longitudinal zero-inflated count responses.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tian; Wu, Pan; Tang, Wan; Zhang, Hui; Feng, Changyong; Kowalski, Jeanne; Tu, Xin M

    2016-07-20

    Zero-inflated count outcomes arise quite often in research and practice. Parametric models such as the zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial are widely used to model such responses. Like most parametric models, they are quite sensitive to departures from assumed distributions. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide distribution-free, or semi-parametric, alternatives. These methods extend the generalized estimating equations to provide robust inference for population mixtures defined by zero-inflated count outcomes. In this paper, we propose methods to extend smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD)-based variable selection methods to these new models. Variable selection has been gaining popularity in modern clinical research studies, as determining differential treatment effects of interventions for different subgroups has become the norm, rather the exception, in the era of patent-centered outcome research. Such moderation analysis in general creates many explanatory variables in regression analysis, and the advantages of SCAD-based methods over their traditional counterparts render them a great choice for addressing this important and timely issues in clinical research. We illustrate the proposed approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Spatiotemporal hurdle models for zero-inflated count data: Exploring trends in emergency department visits.

    PubMed

    Neelon, Brian; Chang, Howard H; Ling, Qiang; Hastings, Nicole S

    2016-12-01

    Motivated by a study exploring spatiotemporal trends in emergency department use, we develop a class of two-part hurdle models for the analysis of zero-inflated areal count data. The models consist of two components-one for the probability of any emergency department use and one for the number of emergency department visits given use. Through a hierarchical structure, the models incorporate both patient- and region-level predictors, as well as spatially and temporally correlated random effects for each model component. The random effects are assigned multivariate conditionally autoregressive priors, which induce dependence between the components and provide spatial and temporal smoothing across adjacent spatial units and time periods, resulting in improved inferences. To accommodate potential overdispersion, we consider a range of parametric specifications for the positive counts, including truncated negative binomial and generalized Poisson distributions. We adopt a Bayesian inferential approach, and posterior computation is handled conveniently within standard Bayesian software. Our results indicate that the negative binomial and generalized Poisson hurdle models vastly outperform the Poisson hurdle model, demonstrating that overdispersed hurdle models provide a useful approach to analyzing zero-inflated spatiotemporal data. © The Author(s) 2014.

  20. EM Adaptive LASSO—A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated with Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes

    PubMed Central

    Mallick, Himel; Tiwari, Hemant K.

    2016-01-01

    Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely encountered in practice

  1. EM Adaptive LASSO-A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated with Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Mallick, Himel; Tiwari, Hemant K

    2016-01-01

    Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely encountered in practice.

  2. Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

    PubMed Central

    Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

    2012-01-01

    Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

  3. Determinants of The Grade A Embryos in Infertile Women; Zero-Inflated Regression Model.

    PubMed

    Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Ghaheri, Azadeh; Omani Samani, Reza

    2017-10-01

    In assisted reproductive technology, it is important to choose high quality embryos for embryo transfer. The aim of the present study was to determine the grade A embryo count and factors related to it in infertile women. This historical cohort study included 996 infertile women. The main outcome was the number of grade A embryos. Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression were used to model the count data as it contained excessive zeros. Stata software, version 13 (Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA) was used for all statistical analyses. After adjusting for potential confounders, results from the ZINB model show that for each unit increase in the number 2 pronuclear (2PN) zygotes, we get an increase of 1.45 times as incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23-1.69, P=0.001) in the expected grade A embryo count number, and for each increase in the cleavage day we get a decrease 0.35 times (95% CI: 0.20-0.61, P=0.001) in expected grade A embryo count. There is a significant association between both the number of 2PN zygotes and cleavage day with the number of grade A embryos in both ZINB and ZIP regression models. The estimated coefficients are more plausible than values found in earlier studies using less relevant models. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

  4. On performance of parametric and distribution-free models for zero-inflated and over-dispersed count responses.

    PubMed

    Tang, Wan; Lu, Naiji; Chen, Tian; Wang, Wenjuan; Gunzler, Douglas David; Han, Yu; Tu, Xin M

    2015-10-30

    Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (ZINB) models are widely used to model zero-inflated count responses. These models extend the Poisson and negative binomial (NB) to address excessive zeros in the count response. By adding a degenerate distribution centered at 0 and interpreting it as describing a non-risk group in the population, the ZIP (ZINB) models a two-component population mixture. As in applications of Poisson and NB, the key difference between ZIP and ZINB is the allowance for overdispersion by the ZINB in its NB component in modeling the count response for the at-risk group. Overdispersion arising in practice too often does not follow the NB, and applications of ZINB to such data yield invalid inference. If sources of overdispersion are known, other parametric models may be used to directly model the overdispersion. Such models too are subject to assumed distributions. Further, this approach may not be applicable if information about the sources of overdispersion is unavailable. In this paper, we propose a distribution-free alternative and compare its performance with these popular parametric models as well as a moment-based approach proposed by Yu et al. [Statistics in Medicine 2013; 32: 2390-2405]. Like the generalized estimating equations, the proposed approach requires no elaborate distribution assumptions. Compared with the approach of Yu et al., it is more robust to overdispersed zero-inflated responses. We illustrate our approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Statistical Models for the Analysis of Zero-Inflated Pain Intensity Numeric Rating Scale Data.

    PubMed

    Goulet, Joseph L; Buta, Eugenia; Bathulapalli, Harini; Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Brandt, Cynthia A

    2017-03-01

    Pain intensity is often measured in clinical and research settings using the 0 to 10 numeric rating scale (NRS). NRS scores are recorded as discrete values, and in some samples they may display a high proportion of zeroes and a right-skewed distribution. Despite this, statistical methods for normally distributed data are frequently used in the analysis of NRS data. We present results from an observational cross-sectional study examining the association of NRS scores with patient characteristics using data collected from a large cohort of 18,935 veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs care diagnosed with a potentially painful musculoskeletal disorder. The mean (variance) NRS pain was 3.0 (7.5), and 34% of patients reported no pain (NRS = 0). We compared the following statistical models for analyzing NRS scores: linear regression, generalized linear models (Poisson and negative binomial), zero-inflated and hurdle models for data with an excess of zeroes, and a cumulative logit model for ordinal data. We examined model fit, interpretability of results, and whether conclusions about the predictor effects changed across models. In this study, models that accommodate zero inflation provided a better fit than the other models. These models should be considered for the analysis of NRS data with a large proportion of zeroes. We examined and analyzed pain data from a large cohort of veterans with musculoskeletal disorders. We found that many reported no current pain on the NRS on the diagnosis date. We present several alternative statistical methods for the analysis of pain intensity data with a large proportion of zeroes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. The Difference Calculus and The NEgative Binomial Distribution

    SciTech Connect

    Bowman, Kimiko o; Shenton, LR

    2007-01-01

    In a previous paper we state the dominant term in the third central moment of the maximum likelihood estimator k of the parameter k in the negative binomial probability function where the probability generating function is (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}. A partial sum of the series {Sigma}1/(k + x){sup 3} is involved, where x is a negative binomial random variate. In expectation this sum can only be found numerically using the computer. Here we give a simple definite integral in (0,1) for the generalized case. This means that now we do have a valid expression for {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(k)more » and {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(p). In addition we use the finite difference operator {Delta}, and E = 1 + {Delta} to set up formulas for low order moments. Other examples of the operators are quoted relating to the orthogonal set of polynomials associated with the negative binomial probability function used as a weight function.« less

  7. Structural zeroes and zero-inflated models.

    PubMed

    He, Hua; Tang, Wan; Wang, Wenjuan; Crits-Christoph, Paul

    2014-08-01

    In psychosocial and behavioral studies count outcomes recording the frequencies of the occurrence of some health or behavior outcomes (such as the number of unprotected sexual behaviors during a period of time) often contain a preponderance of zeroes because of the presence of 'structural zeroes' that occur when some subjects are not at risk for the behavior of interest. Unlike random zeroes (responses that can be greater than zero, but are zero due to sampling variability), structural zeroes are usually very different, both statistically and clinically. False interpretations of results and study findings may result if differences in the two types of zeroes are ignored. However, in practice, the status of the structural zeroes is often not observed and this latent nature complicates the data analysis. In this article, we focus on one model, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model that is commonly used to address zero-inflated data. We first give a brief overview of the issues of structural zeroes and the ZIP model. We then given an illustration of ZIP with data from a study on HIV-risk sexual behaviors among adolescent girls. Sample codes in SAS and Stata are also included to help perform and explain ZIP analyses.

  8. Bayesian inference for disease prevalence using negative binomial group testing

    PubMed Central

    Pritchard, Nicholas A.; Tebbs, Joshua M.

    2011-01-01

    Group testing, also known as pooled testing, and inverse sampling are both widely used methods of data collection when the goal is to estimate a small proportion. Taking a Bayesian approach, we consider the new problem of estimating disease prevalence from group testing when inverse (negative binomial) sampling is used. Using different distributions to incorporate prior knowledge of disease incidence and different loss functions, we derive closed form expressions for posterior distributions and resulting point and credible interval estimators. We then evaluate our new estimators, on Bayesian and classical grounds, and apply our methods to a West Nile Virus data set. PMID:21259308

  9. Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhu; Shuangge, Ma; Wang, Ching-Yun

    2017-01-01

    In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using an open-source R package mpath. PMID:26059498

  10. Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhu; Ma, Shuangge; Wang, Ching-Yun

    2015-09-01

    In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, but also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using the open-source R package mpath. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. Conditional modeling of antibody titers using a zero-inflated poisson random effects model: application to Fabrazyme.

    PubMed

    Bonate, Peter L; Sung, Crystal; Welch, Karen; Richards, Susan

    2009-10-01

    Patients that are exposed to biotechnology-derived therapeutics often develop antibodies to the therapeutic, the magnitude of which is assessed by measuring antibody titers. A statistical approach for analyzing antibody titer data conditional on seroconversion is presented. The proposed method is to first transform the antibody titer data based on a geometric series using a common ratio of 2 and a scale factor of 50 and then analyze the exponent using a zero-inflated or hurdle model assuming a Poisson or negative binomial distribution with random effects to account for patient heterogeneity. Patient specific covariates can be used to model the probability of developing an antibody response, i.e., seroconversion, as well as the magnitude of the antibody titer itself. The method was illustrated using antibody titer data from 87 male seroconverted Fabry patients receiving Fabrazyme. Titers from five clinical trials were collected over 276 weeks of therapy with anti-Fabrazyme IgG titers ranging from 100 to 409,600 after exclusion of seronegative patients. The best model to explain seroconversion was a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model where cumulative dose (under a constant dose regimen of dosing every 2 weeks) influenced the probability of seroconversion. There was an 80% chance of seroconversion when the cumulative dose reached 210 mg (90% confidence interval: 194-226 mg). No difference in antibody titers was noted between Japanese or Western patients. Once seroconverted, antibody titers did not remain constant but decreased in an exponential manner from an initial magnitude to a new lower steady-state value. The expected titer after the new steady-state titer had been achieved was 870 (90% CI: 630-1109). The half-life to the new steady-state value after seroconversion was 44 weeks (90% CI: 17-70 weeks). Time to seroconversion did not appear to be correlated with titer at the time of seroconversion. The method can be adequately used to model antibody titer data.

  12. New variable selection methods for zero-inflated count data with applications to the substance abuse field

    PubMed Central

    Buu, Anne; Johnson, Norman J.; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming

    2011-01-01

    Zero-inflated count data are very common in health surveys. This study develops new variable selection methods for the zero-inflated Poisson regression model. Our simulations demonstrate the negative consequences which arise from the ignorance of zero-inflation. Among the competing methods, the one-step SCAD method is recommended because it has the highest specificity, sensitivity, exact fit, and lowest estimation error. The design of the simulations is based on the special features of two large national databases commonly used in the alcoholism and substance abuse field so that our findings can be easily generalized to the real settings. Applications of the methodology are demonstrated by empirical analyses on the data from a well-known alcohol study. PMID:21563207

  13. Reliability of environmental sampling culture results using the negative binomial intraclass correlation coefficient.

    PubMed

    Aly, Sharif S; Zhao, Jianyang; Li, Ben; Jiang, Jiming

    2014-01-01

    The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is commonly used to estimate the similarity between quantitative measures obtained from different sources. Overdispersed data is traditionally transformed so that linear mixed model (LMM) based ICC can be estimated. A common transformation used is the natural logarithm. The reliability of environmental sampling of fecal slurry on freestall pens has been estimated for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis using the natural logarithm transformed culture results. Recently, the negative binomial ICC was defined based on a generalized linear mixed model for negative binomial distributed data. The current study reports on the negative binomial ICC estimate which includes fixed effects using culture results of environmental samples. Simulations using a wide variety of inputs and negative binomial distribution parameters (r; p) showed better performance of the new negative binomial ICC compared to the ICC based on LMM even when negative binomial data was logarithm, and square root transformed. A second comparison that targeted a wider range of ICC values showed that the mean of estimated ICC closely approximated the true ICC.

  14. IRT-ZIP Modeling for Multivariate Zero-Inflated Count Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Lijuan

    2010-01-01

    This study introduces an item response theory-zero-inflated Poisson (IRT-ZIP) model to investigate psychometric properties of multiple items and predict individuals' latent trait scores for multivariate zero-inflated count data. In the model, two link functions are used to capture two processes of the zero-inflated count data. Item parameters are…

  15. Comparison of multiplicity distributions to the negative binomial distribution in muon-proton scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arneodo, M.; Arvidson, A.; Aubert, J. J.; Badełek, B.; Beaufays, J.; Bee, C. P.; Benchouk, C.; Berghoff, G.; Bird, I.; Blum, D.; Böhm, E.; de Bouard, X.; Brasse, F. W.; Braun, H.; Broll, C.; Brown, S.; Brück, H.; Calen, H.; Chima, J. S.; Ciborowski, J.; Clifft, R.; Coignet, G.; Combley, F.; Coughlan, J.; D'Agostini, G.; Dahlgren, S.; Dengler, F.; Derado, I.; Dreyer, T.; Drees, J.; Düren, M.; Eckardt, V.; Edwards, A.; Edwards, M.; Ernst, T.; Eszes, G.; Favier, J.; Ferrero, M. I.; Figiel, J.; Flauger, W.; Foster, J.; Ftáčnik, J.; Gabathuler, E.; Gajewski, J.; Gamet, R.; Gayler, J.; Geddes, N.; Grafström, P.; Grard, F.; Haas, J.; Hagberg, E.; Hasert, F. J.; Hayman, P.; Heusse, P.; Jaffré, M.; Jachołkowska, A.; Janata, F.; Jancsó, G.; Johnson, A. S.; Kabuss, E. M.; Kellner, G.; Korbel, V.; Krüger, J.; Kullander, S.; Landgraf, U.; Lanske, D.; Loken, J.; Long, K.; Maire, M.; Malecki, P.; Manz, A.; Maselli, S.; Mohr, W.; Montanet, F.; Montgomery, H. E.; Nagy, E.; Nassalski, J.; Norton, P. R.; Oakham, F. G.; Osborne, A. M.; Pascaud, C.; Pawlik, B.; Payre, P.; Peroni, C.; Peschel, H.; Pessard, H.; Pettinghale, J.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pietrzyk, U.; Pönsgen, B.; Pötsch, M.; Renton, P.; Ribarics, P.; Rith, K.; Rondio, E.; Sandacz, A.; Scheer, M.; Schlagböhmer, A.; Schiemann, H.; Schmitz, N.; Schneegans, M.; Schneider, A.; Scholz, M.; Schröder, T.; Schultze, K.; Sloan, T.; Stier, H. E.; Studt, M.; Taylor, G. N.; Thénard, J. M.; Thompson, J. C.; de La Torre, A.; Toth, J.; Urban, L.; Urban, L.; Wallucks, W.; Whalley, M.; Wheeler, S.; Williams, W. S. C.; Wimpenny, S. J.; Windmolders, R.; Wolf, G.

    1987-09-01

    The multiplicity distributions of charged hadrons produced in the deep inelastic muon-proton scattering at 280 GeV are analysed in various rapidity intervals, as a function of the total hadronic centre of mass energy W ranging from 4 20 GeV. Multiplicity distributions for the backward and forward hemispheres are also analysed separately. The data can be well parameterized by binomial distributions, extending their range of applicability to the case of lepton-proton scattering. The energy and the rapidity dependence of the parameters is presented and a smooth transition from the negative binomial distribution via Poissonian to the ordinary binomial is observed.

  16. Marginalized zero-inflated Poisson models with missing covariates.

    PubMed

    Benecha, Habtamu K; Preisser, John S; Divaris, Kimon; Herring, Amy H; Das, Kalyan

    2018-05-11

    Unlike zero-inflated Poisson regression, marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) models for counts with excess zeros provide estimates with direct interpretations for the overall effects of covariates on the marginal mean. In the presence of missing covariates, MZIP and many other count data models are ordinarily fitted using complete case analysis methods due to lack of appropriate statistical methods and software. This article presents an estimation method for MZIP models with missing covariates. The method, which is applicable to other missing data problems, is illustrated and compared with complete case analysis by using simulations and dental data on the caries preventive effects of a school-based fluoride mouthrinse program. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  17. Censored Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression (Case Study: Neonatorum Tetanus Case in Indonesia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuli Rusdiana, Riza; Zain, Ismaini; Wulan Purnami, Santi

    2017-06-01

    Hurdle negative binomial model regression is a method that can be used for discreate dependent variable, excess zero and under- and overdispersion. It uses two parts approach. The first part estimates zero elements from dependent variable is zero hurdle model and the second part estimates not zero elements (non-negative integer) from dependent variable is called truncated negative binomial models. The discrete dependent variable in such cases is censored for some values. The type of censor that will be studied in this research is right censored. This study aims to obtain the parameter estimator hurdle negative binomial regression for right censored dependent variable. In the assessment of parameter estimation methods used Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). Hurdle negative binomial model regression for right censored dependent variable is applied on the number of neonatorum tetanus cases in Indonesia. The type data is count data which contains zero values in some observations and other variety value. This study also aims to obtain the parameter estimator and test statistic censored hurdle negative binomial model. Based on the regression results, the factors that influence neonatorum tetanus case in Indonesia is the percentage of baby health care coverage and neonatal visits.

  18. Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory.

    PubMed

    Lord, Dominique; Washington, Simon P; Ivan, John N

    2005-01-01

    There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states-perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate

  19. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  20. Analysis of generalized negative binomial distributions attached to hyperbolic Landau levels

    SciTech Connect

    Chhaiba, Hassan, E-mail: chhaiba.hassan@gmail.com; Demni, Nizar, E-mail: nizar.demni@univ-rennes1.fr; Mouayn, Zouhair, E-mail: mouayn@fstbm.ac.ma

    2016-07-15

    To each hyperbolic Landau level of the Poincaré disc is attached a generalized negative binomial distribution. In this paper, we compute the moment generating function of this distribution and supply its atomic decomposition as a perturbation of the negative binomial distribution by a finitely supported measure. Using the Mandel parameter, we also discuss the nonclassical nature of the associated coherent states. Next, we derive a Lévy-Khintchine-type representation of its characteristic function when the latter does not vanish and deduce that it is quasi-infinitely divisible except for the lowest hyperbolic Landau level corresponding to the negative binomial distribution. By considering themore » total variation of the obtained quasi-Lévy measure, we introduce a new infinitely divisible distribution for which we derive the characteristic function.« less

  1. Protection from annual flooding is correlated with increased cholera prevalence in Bangladesh: a zero-inflated regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Carrel, Margaret; Voss, Paul; Streatfield, Peter K; Yunus, Mohammad; Emch, Michael

    2010-03-22

    Alteration of natural or historical aquatic flows can have unintended consequences for regions where waterborne diseases are endemic and where the epidemiologic implications of such change are poorly understood. The implementation of flood protection measures for a portion of an intensely monitored population in Matlab, Bangladesh, allows us to examine whether cholera outcomes respond positively or negatively to measures designed to control river flooding. Using a zero inflated negative binomial model, we examine how selected covariates can simultaneously account for household clusters reporting no cholera from those with positive counts as well as distinguishing residential areas with low counts from areas with high cholera counts. Our goal is to examine how residence within or outside a flood protected area interacts with the probability of cholera presence and the effect of flood protection on the magnitude of cholera prevalence. In Matlab, living in a household that is protected from annual monsoon flooding appears to have no significant effect on whether the household experiences cholera, net of other covariates. However, counter-intuitively, among households where cholera is reported, living within the flood protected region significantly increases the number of cholera cases. The construction of dams or other water impoundment strategies for economic or social motives can have profound and unanticipated consequences for waterborne disease. Our results indicate that the construction of a flood control structure in rural Bangladesh is correlated with an increase in cholera cases for residents protected from annual monsoon flooding. Such a finding requires attention from both the health community and from governments and non-governmental organizations involved in ongoing water management schemes.

  2. Variability in results from negative binomial models for Lyme disease measured at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Tran, Phoebe; Waller, Lance

    2015-01-01

    Lyme disease has been the subject of many studies due to increasing incidence rates year after year and the severe complications that can arise in later stages of the disease. Negative binomial models have been used to model Lyme disease in the past with some success. However, there has been little focus on the reliability and consistency of these models when they are used to study Lyme disease at multiple spatial scales. This study seeks to explore how sensitive/consistent negative binomial models are when they are used to study Lyme disease at different spatial scales (at the regional and sub-regional levels). The study area includes the thirteen states in the Northeastern United States with the highest Lyme disease incidence during the 2002-2006 period. Lyme disease incidence at county level for the period of 2002-2006 was linked with several previously identified key landscape and climatic variables in a negative binomial regression model for the Northeastern region and two smaller sub-regions (the New England sub-region and the Mid-Atlantic sub-region). This study found that negative binomial models, indeed, were sensitive/inconsistent when used at different spatial scales. We discuss various plausible explanations for such behavior of negative binomial models. Further investigation of the inconsistency and sensitivity of negative binomial models when used at different spatial scales is important for not only future Lyme disease studies and Lyme disease risk assessment/management but any study that requires use of this model type in a spatial context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A Mixed-Effects Heterogeneous Negative Binomial Model for Postfire Conifer Regeneration in Northeastern California, USA

    Treesearch

    Justin S. Crotteau; Martin W. Ritchie; J. Morgan Varner

    2014-01-01

    Many western USA fire regimes are typified by mixed-severity fire, which compounds the variability inherent to natural regeneration densities in associated forests. Tree regeneration data are often discrete and nonnegative; accordingly, we fit a series of Poisson and negative binomial variation models to conifer seedling counts across four distinct burn severities and...

  4. Use of the negative binomial-truncated Poisson distribution in thunderstorm prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, A. C.

    1971-01-01

    A probability model is presented for the distribution of thunderstorms over a small area given that thunderstorm events (1 or more thunderstorms) are occurring over a larger area. The model incorporates the negative binomial and truncated Poisson distributions. Probability tables for Cape Kennedy for spring, summer, and fall months and seasons are presented. The computer program used to compute these probabilities is appended.

  5. Zero-inflated spatio-temporal models for disease mapping.

    PubMed

    Torabi, Mahmoud

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, our aim is to analyze geographical and temporal variability of disease incidence when spatio-temporal count data have excess zeros. To that end, we consider random effects in zero-inflated Poisson models to investigate geographical and temporal patterns of disease incidence. Spatio-temporal models that employ conditionally autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and B-spline smoothing over the temporal dimension are proposed. The analysis of these complex models is computationally difficult from the frequentist perspective. On the other hand, the advent of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm has made the Bayesian analysis of complex models computationally convenient. Recently developed data cloning method provides a frequentist approach to mixed models that is also computationally convenient. We propose to use data cloning, which yields to maximum likelihood estimation, to conduct frequentist analysis of zero-inflated spatio-temporal modeling of disease incidence. One of the advantages of the data cloning approach is that the prediction and corresponding standard errors (or prediction intervals) of smoothing disease incidence over space and time is easily obtained. We illustrate our approach using a real dataset of monthly children asthma visits to hospital in the province of Manitoba, Canada, during the period April 2006 to March 2010. Performance of our approach is also evaluated through a simulation study. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Poisson and negative binomial item count techniques for surveys with sensitive question.

    PubMed

    Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Wu, Qin; Liu, Yin

    2017-04-01

    Although the item count technique is useful in surveys with sensitive questions, privacy of those respondents who possess the sensitive characteristic of interest may not be well protected due to a defect in its original design. In this article, we propose two new survey designs (namely the Poisson item count technique and negative binomial item count technique) which replace several independent Bernoulli random variables required by the original item count technique with a single Poisson or negative binomial random variable, respectively. The proposed models not only provide closed form variance estimate and confidence interval within [0, 1] for the sensitive proportion, but also simplify the survey design of the original item count technique. Most importantly, the new designs do not leak respondents' privacy. Empirical results show that the proposed techniques perform satisfactorily in the sense that it yields accurate parameter estimate and confidence interval.

  7. Zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell Poisson Distribution to Analyze Discrete Data.

    PubMed

    Sim, Shin Zhu; Gupta, Ramesh C; Ong, Seng Huat

    2018-01-09

    In this paper, we study the zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ZICMP) distribution and develop a regression model. Score and likelihood ratio tests are also implemented for testing the inflation/deflation parameter. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the performance of these tests. A data example is presented to illustrate the concepts. In this example, the proposed model is compared to the well-known zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and the zero- inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) regression models. It is shown that the fit by ZICMP is comparable or better than these models.

  8. Use of negative binomial distribution to describe the presence of Anisakis in Thyrsites atun.

    PubMed

    Peña-Rehbein, Patricio; De los Ríos-Escalante, Patricio

    2012-01-01

    Nematodes of the genus Anisakis have marine fishes as intermediate hosts. One of these hosts is Thyrsites atun, an important fishery resource in Chile between 38 and 41° S. This paper describes the frequency and number of Anisakis nematodes in the internal organs of Thyrsites atun. An analysis based on spatial distribution models showed that the parasites tend to be clustered. The variation in the number of parasites per host could be described by the negative binomial distribution. The maximum observed number of parasites was nine parasites per host. The environmental and zoonotic aspects of the study are also discussed.

  9. Sample size determination for a three-arm equivalence trial of Poisson and negative binomial responses.

    PubMed

    Chang, Yu-Wei; Tsong, Yi; Zhao, Zhigen

    2017-01-01

    Assessing equivalence or similarity has drawn much attention recently as many drug products have lost or will lose their patents in the next few years, especially certain best-selling biologics. To claim equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment when assay sensitivity is well established from historical data, one has to demonstrate both superiority of the test treatment over placebo and equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment. Thus, there is urgency for practitioners to derive a practical way to calculate sample size for a three-arm equivalence trial. The primary endpoints of a clinical trial may not always be continuous, but may be discrete. In this paper, the authors derive power function and discuss sample size requirement for a three-arm equivalence trial with Poisson and negative binomial clinical endpoints. In addition, the authors examine the effect of the dispersion parameter on the power and the sample size by varying its coefficient from small to large. In extensive numerical studies, the authors demonstrate that required sample size heavily depends on the dispersion parameter. Therefore, misusing a Poisson model for negative binomial data may easily lose power up to 20%, depending on the value of the dispersion parameter.

  10. Assessment and Selection of Competing Models for Zero-Inflated Microbiome Data.

    PubMed

    Xu, Lizhen; Paterson, Andrew D; Turpin, Williams; Xu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Typical data in a microbiome study consist of the operational taxonomic unit (OTU) counts that have the characteristic of excess zeros, which are often ignored by investigators. In this paper, we compare the performance of different competing methods to model data with zero inflated features through extensive simulations and application to a microbiome study. These methods include standard parametric and non-parametric models, hurdle models, and zero inflated models. We examine varying degrees of zero inflation, with or without dispersion in the count component, as well as different magnitude and direction of the covariate effect on structural zeros and the count components. We focus on the assessment of type I error, power to detect the overall covariate effect, measures of model fit, and bias and effectiveness of parameter estimations. We also evaluate the abilities of model selection strategies using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or Vuong test to identify the correct model. The simulation studies show that hurdle and zero inflated models have well controlled type I errors, higher power, better goodness of fit measures, and are more accurate and efficient in the parameter estimation. Besides that, the hurdle models have similar goodness of fit and parameter estimation for the count component as their corresponding zero inflated models. However, the estimation and interpretation of the parameters for the zero components differs, and hurdle models are more stable when structural zeros are absent. We then discuss the model selection strategy for zero inflated data and implement it in a gut microbiome study of > 400 independent subjects.

  11. Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Bence, James R.; Kepler, Megan V.; Liu, Weihai; Hayes, Daniel B.

    2013-01-01

    Partitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

  12. Application of zero-inflated poisson mixed models in prognostic factors of hepatitis C.

    PubMed

    Akbarzadeh Baghban, Alireza; Pourhoseingholi, Asma; Zayeri, Farid; Jafari, Ali Akbar; Alavian, Seyed Moayed

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major public health problem. Evaluation of risk factors is one of the solutions which help protect people from the infection. This study aims to employ zero-inflated Poisson mixed models to evaluate prognostic factors of hepatitis C. The data was collected from a longitudinal study during 2005-2010. First, mixed Poisson regression (PR) model was fitted to the data. Then, a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was fitted with compound Poisson random effects. For evaluating the performance of the proposed mixed model, standard errors of estimators were compared. The results obtained from mixed PR showed that genotype 3 and treatment protocol were statistically significant. Results of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model showed that age, sex, genotypes 2 and 3, the treatment protocol, and having risk factors had significant effects on viral load of HCV patients. Of these two models, the estimators of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model had the minimum standard errors. The results showed that a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was the almost best fit. The proposed model can capture serial dependence, additional overdispersion, and excess zeros in the longitudinal count data.

  13. Assessment and Selection of Competing Models for Zero-Inflated Microbiome Data

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Lizhen; Paterson, Andrew D.; Turpin, Williams; Xu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Typical data in a microbiome study consist of the operational taxonomic unit (OTU) counts that have the characteristic of excess zeros, which are often ignored by investigators. In this paper, we compare the performance of different competing methods to model data with zero inflated features through extensive simulations and application to a microbiome study. These methods include standard parametric and non-parametric models, hurdle models, and zero inflated models. We examine varying degrees of zero inflation, with or without dispersion in the count component, as well as different magnitude and direction of the covariate effect on structural zeros and the count components. We focus on the assessment of type I error, power to detect the overall covariate effect, measures of model fit, and bias and effectiveness of parameter estimations. We also evaluate the abilities of model selection strategies using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or Vuong test to identify the correct model. The simulation studies show that hurdle and zero inflated models have well controlled type I errors, higher power, better goodness of fit measures, and are more accurate and efficient in the parameter estimation. Besides that, the hurdle models have similar goodness of fit and parameter estimation for the count component as their corresponding zero inflated models. However, the estimation and interpretation of the parameters for the zero components differs, and hurdle models are more stable when structural zeros are absent. We then discuss the model selection strategy for zero inflated data and implement it in a gut microbiome study of > 400 independent subjects. PMID:26148172

  14. Zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test for drug safety signal detection.

    PubMed

    Huang, Lan; Zheng, Dan; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram

    2017-02-01

    In recent decades, numerous methods have been developed for data mining of large drug safety databases, such as Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Adverse Event Reporting System, where data matrices are formed by drugs such as columns and adverse events as rows. Often, a large number of cells in these data matrices have zero cell counts and some of them are "true zeros" indicating that the drug-adverse event pairs cannot occur, and these zero counts are distinguished from the other zero counts that are modeled zero counts and simply indicate that the drug-adverse event pairs have not occurred yet or have not been reported yet. In this paper, a zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is proposed to identify drug-adverse event pairs that have disproportionately high reporting rates, which are also called signals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test are obtained using the expectation and maximization algorithm. The zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test is also modified to handle the stratified analyses for binary and categorical covariates (e.g. gender and age) in the data. The proposed zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is shown to asymptotically control the type I error and false discovery rate, and its finite sample performance for signal detection is evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation results show that the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method performs similar to Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method when the estimated percentage of true zeros in the database is small. Both the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test and likelihood ratio test methods are applied to six selected drugs, from the 2006 to 2011 Adverse Event Reporting System database, with varying percentages of observed zero-count cells.

  15. [Application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression in the research of risk factors for injury frequency].

    PubMed

    Cao, Qingqing; Wu, Zhenqiang; Sun, Ying; Wang, Tiezhu; Han, Tengwei; Gu, Chaomei; Sun, Yehuan

    2011-11-01

    To Eexplore the application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression analysis in analyzing the influential factors for injury frequency and the risk factors leading to the increase of injury frequency. 2917 primary and secondary school students were selected from Hefei by cluster random sampling method and surveyed by questionnaire. The data on the count event-based injuries used to fitted modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model. The risk factors incurring the increase of unintentional injury frequency for juvenile students was explored, so as to probe the efficiency of these two models in studying the influential factors for injury frequency. The Poisson model existed over-dispersion (P < 0.0001) based on testing by the Lagrangemultiplier. Therefore, the over-dispersion dispersed data using a modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model, was fitted better. respectively. Both showed that male gender, younger age, father working outside of the hometown, the level of the guardian being above junior high school and smoking might be the results of higher injury frequencies. On a tendency of clustered frequency data on injury event, both the modified Poisson regression analysis and negative binomial regression analysis can be used. However, based on our data, the modified Poisson regression fitted better and this model could give a more accurate interpretation of relevant factors affecting the frequency of injury.

  16. Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D; Sarran, Christophe

    2013-05-01

    Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.

  17. Goodness-of-fit tests and model diagnostics for negative binomial regression of RNA sequencing data.

    PubMed

    Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W

    2015-01-01

    This work is about assessing model adequacy for negative binomial (NB) regression, particularly (1) assessing the adequacy of the NB assumption, and (2) assessing the appropriateness of models for NB dispersion parameters. Tools for the first are appropriate for NB regression generally; those for the second are primarily intended for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data analysis. The typically small number of biological samples and large number of genes in RNA-Seq analysis motivate us to address the trade-offs between robustness and statistical power using NB regression models. One widely-used power-saving strategy, for example, is to assume some commonalities of NB dispersion parameters across genes via simple models relating them to mean expression rates, and many such models have been proposed. As RNA-Seq analysis is becoming ever more popular, it is appropriate to make more thorough investigations into power and robustness of the resulting methods, and into practical tools for model assessment. In this article, we propose simulation-based statistical tests and diagnostic graphics to address model adequacy. We provide simulated and real data examples to illustrate that our proposed methods are effective for detecting the misspecification of the NB mean-variance relationship as well as judging the adequacy of fit of several NB dispersion models.

  18. Design and analysis of three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints.

    PubMed

    Mütze, Tobias; Munk, Axel; Friede, Tim

    2016-02-20

    A three-arm clinical trial design with an experimental treatment, an active control, and a placebo control, commonly referred to as the gold standard design, enables testing of non-inferiority or superiority of the experimental treatment compared with the active control. In this paper, we propose methods for designing and analyzing three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints. In particular, we develop a Wald-type test with a restricted maximum-likelihood variance estimator for testing non-inferiority or superiority. For this test, sample size and power formulas as well as optimal sample size allocations will be derived. The performance of the proposed test will be assessed in an extensive simulation study with regard to type I error rate, power, sample size, and sample size allocation. For the purpose of comparison, Wald-type statistics with a sample variance estimator and an unrestricted maximum-likelihood estimator are included in the simulation study. We found that the proposed Wald-type test with a restricted variance estimator performed well across the considered scenarios and is therefore recommended for application in clinical trials. The methods proposed are motivated and illustrated by a recent clinical trial in multiple sclerosis. The R package ThreeArmedTrials, which implements the methods discussed in this paper, is available on CRAN. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Item Response Modeling of Multivariate Count Data with Zero Inflation, Maximum Inflation, and Heaping

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magnus, Brooke E.; Thissen, David

    2017-01-01

    Questionnaires that include items eliciting count responses are becoming increasingly common in psychology. This study proposes methodological techniques to overcome some of the challenges associated with analyzing multivariate item response data that exhibit zero inflation, maximum inflation, and heaping at preferred digits. The modeling…

  20. Analysis of Blood Transfusion Data Using Bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson Model: A Bayesian Approach.

    PubMed

    Mohammadi, Tayeb; Kheiri, Soleiman; Sedehi, Morteza

    2016-01-01

    Recognizing the factors affecting the number of blood donation and blood deferral has a major impact on blood transfusion. There is a positive correlation between the variables "number of blood donation" and "number of blood deferral": as the number of return for donation increases, so does the number of blood deferral. On the other hand, due to the fact that many donors never return to donate, there is an extra zero frequency for both of the above-mentioned variables. In this study, in order to apply the correlation and to explain the frequency of the excessive zero, the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model was used for joint modeling of the number of blood donation and number of blood deferral. The data was analyzed using the Bayesian approach applying noninformative priors at the presence and absence of covariates. Estimating the parameters of the model, that is, correlation, zero-inflation parameter, and regression coefficients, was done through MCMC simulation. Eventually double-Poisson model, bivariate Poisson model, and bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model were fitted on the data and were compared using the deviance information criteria (DIC). The results showed that the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model fitted the data better than the other models.

  1. Growth Curve Models for Zero-Inflated Count Data: An Application to Smoking Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Hui; Powers, Daniel A.

    2007-01-01

    This article applies growth curve models to longitudinal count data characterized by an excess of zero counts. We discuss a zero-inflated Poisson regression model for longitudinal data in which the impact of covariates on the initial counts and the rate of change in counts over time is the focus of inference. Basic growth curve models using a…

  2. Analysis of Blood Transfusion Data Using Bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson Model: A Bayesian Approach

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadi, Tayeb; Sedehi, Morteza

    2016-01-01

    Recognizing the factors affecting the number of blood donation and blood deferral has a major impact on blood transfusion. There is a positive correlation between the variables “number of blood donation” and “number of blood deferral”: as the number of return for donation increases, so does the number of blood deferral. On the other hand, due to the fact that many donors never return to donate, there is an extra zero frequency for both of the above-mentioned variables. In this study, in order to apply the correlation and to explain the frequency of the excessive zero, the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model was used for joint modeling of the number of blood donation and number of blood deferral. The data was analyzed using the Bayesian approach applying noninformative priors at the presence and absence of covariates. Estimating the parameters of the model, that is, correlation, zero-inflation parameter, and regression coefficients, was done through MCMC simulation. Eventually double-Poisson model, bivariate Poisson model, and bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model were fitted on the data and were compared using the deviance information criteria (DIC). The results showed that the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model fitted the data better than the other models. PMID:27703493

  3. Robust inference in the negative binomial regression model with an application to falls data.

    PubMed

    Aeberhard, William H; Cantoni, Eva; Heritier, Stephane

    2014-12-01

    A popular way to model overdispersed count data, such as the number of falls reported during intervention studies, is by means of the negative binomial (NB) distribution. Classical estimating methods are well-known to be sensitive to model misspecifications, taking the form of patients falling much more than expected in such intervention studies where the NB regression model is used. We extend in this article two approaches for building robust M-estimators of the regression parameters in the class of generalized linear models to the NB distribution. The first approach achieves robustness in the response by applying a bounded function on the Pearson residuals arising in the maximum likelihood estimating equations, while the second approach achieves robustness by bounding the unscaled deviance components. For both approaches, we explore different choices for the bounding functions. Through a unified notation, we show how close these approaches may actually be as long as the bounding functions are chosen and tuned appropriately, and provide the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. Moreover, we introduce a robust weighted maximum likelihood estimator for the overdispersion parameter, specific to the NB distribution. Simulations under various settings show that redescending bounding functions yield estimates with smaller biases under contamination while keeping high efficiency at the assumed model, and this for both approaches. We present an application to a recent randomized controlled trial measuring the effectiveness of an exercise program at reducing the number of falls among people suffering from Parkinsons disease to illustrate the diagnostic use of such robust procedures and their need for reliable inference. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Does attitude matter in computer use in Australian general practice? A zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Khan, Asaduzzaman; Western, Mark

    The purpose of this study was to explore factors that facilitate or hinder effective use of computers in Australian general medical practice. This study is based on data extracted from a national telephone survey of 480 general practitioners (GPs) across Australia. Clinical functions performed by GPs using computers were examined using a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression modelling. About 17% of GPs were not using computer for any clinical function, while 18% reported using computers for all clinical functions. The ZIP model showed that computer anxiety was negatively associated with effective computer use, while practitioners' belief about usefulness of computers was positively associated with effective computer use. Being a female GP or working in partnership or group practice increased the odds of effectively using computers for clinical functions. To fully capitalise on the benefits of computer technology, GPs need to be convinced that this technology is useful and can make a difference.

  5. Analyzing Propensity Matched Zero-Inflated Count Outcomes in Observational Studies

    PubMed Central

    DeSantis, Stacia M.; Lazaridis, Christos; Ji, Shuang; Spinale, Francis G.

    2013-01-01

    Determining the effectiveness of different treatments from observational data, which are characterized by imbalance between groups due to lack of randomization, is challenging. Propensity matching is often used to rectify imbalances among prognostic variables. However, there are no guidelines on how appropriately to analyze group matched data when the outcome is a zero inflated count. In addition, there is debate over whether to account for correlation of responses induced by matching, and/or whether to adjust for variables used in generating the propensity score in the final analysis. The aim of this research is to compare covariate unadjusted and adjusted zero-inflated Poisson models that do and do not account for the correlation. A simulation study is conducted, demonstrating that it is necessary to adjust for potential residual confounding, but that accounting for correlation is less important. The methods are applied to a biomedical research data set. PMID:24298197

  6. Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallejo, Jonathon; Hejduk, Matt; Stamey, James

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

  7. An application of a zero-inflated lifetime distribution with multiple and incomplete data sources

    DOE PAGES

    Hamada, M. S.; Margevicius, K. J.

    2016-02-11

    In this study, we analyze data sampled from a population of parts in which an associated anomaly can occur at assembly or after assembly. Using a zero-inflated lifetime distribution to fit left-censored and right-censored data as well data from a supplementary sample, we make predictions about the proportion of the population with anomalies today and in the future. Goodness-of-fit is also addressed.

  8. SEMIPARAMETRIC ZERO-INFLATED MODELING IN MULTI-ETHNIC STUDY OF ATHEROSCLEROSIS (MESA)

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Hai; Ma, Shuangge; Kronmal, Richard; Chan, Kung-Sik

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the Agatston score of coronary artery calcium (CAC) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) using semi-parametric zero-inflated modeling approach, where the observed CAC scores from this cohort consist of high frequency of zeroes and continuously distributed positive values. Both partially constrained and unconstrained models are considered to investigate the underlying biological processes of CAC development from zero to positive, and from small amount to large amount. Different from existing studies, a model selection procedure based on likelihood cross-validation is adopted to identify the optimal model, which is justified by comparative Monte Carlo studies. A shrinkaged version of cubic regression spline is used for model estimation and variable selection simultaneously. When applying the proposed methods to the MESA data analysis, we show that the two biological mechanisms influencing the initiation of CAC and the magnitude of CAC when it is positive are better characterized by an unconstrained zero-inflated normal model. Our results are significantly different from those in published studies, and may provide further insights into the biological mechanisms underlying CAC development in human. This highly flexible statistical framework can be applied to zero-inflated data analyses in other areas. PMID:23805172

  9. Full Bayes Poisson gamma, Poisson lognormal, and zero inflated random effects models: Comparing the precision of crash frequency estimates.

    PubMed

    Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, complex statistical modeling approaches have being proposed to handle the unobserved heterogeneity and the excess of zeros frequently found in crash data, including random effects and zero inflated models. This research compares random effects, zero inflated, and zero inflated random effects models using a full Bayes hierarchical approach. The models are compared not just in terms of goodness-of-fit measures but also in terms of precision of posterior crash frequency estimates since the precision of these estimates is vital for ranking of sites for engineering improvement. Fixed-over-time random effects models are also compared to independent-over-time random effects models. For the crash dataset being analyzed, it was found that once the random effects are included in the zero inflated models, the probability of being in the zero state is drastically reduced, and the zero inflated models degenerate to their non zero inflated counterparts. Also by fixing the random effects over time the fit of the models and the precision of the crash frequency estimates are significantly increased. It was found that the rankings of the fixed-over-time random effects models are very consistent among them. In addition, the results show that by fixing the random effects over time, the standard errors of the crash frequency estimates are significantly reduced for the majority of the segments on the top of the ranking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A comparison of different ways of including baseline counts in negative binomial models for data from falls prevention trials.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Han; Kimber, Alan; Goodwin, Victoria A; Pickering, Ruth M

    2018-01-01

    A common design for a falls prevention trial is to assess falling at baseline, randomize participants into an intervention or control group, and ask them to record the number of falls they experience during a follow-up period of time. This paper addresses how best to include the baseline count in the analysis of the follow-up count of falls in negative binomial (NB) regression. We examine the performance of various approaches in simulated datasets where both counts are generated from a mixed Poisson distribution with shared random subject effect. Including the baseline count after log-transformation as a regressor in NB regression (NB-logged) or as an offset (NB-offset) resulted in greater power than including the untransformed baseline count (NB-unlogged). Cook and Wei's conditional negative binomial (CNB) model replicates the underlying process generating the data. In our motivating dataset, a statistically significant intervention effect resulted from the NB-logged, NB-offset, and CNB models, but not from NB-unlogged, and large, outlying baseline counts were overly influential in NB-unlogged but not in NB-logged. We conclude that there is little to lose by including the log-transformed baseline count in standard NB regression compared to CNB for moderate to larger sized datasets. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. The analysis of incontinence episodes and other count data in patients with overactive bladder by Poisson and negative binomial regression.

    PubMed

    Martina, R; Kay, R; van Maanen, R; Ridder, A

    2015-01-01

    Clinical studies in overactive bladder have traditionally used analysis of covariance or nonparametric methods to analyse the number of incontinence episodes and other count data. It is known that if the underlying distributional assumptions of a particular parametric method do not hold, an alternative parametric method may be more efficient than a nonparametric one, which makes no assumptions regarding the underlying distribution of the data. Therefore, there are advantages in using methods based on the Poisson distribution or extensions of that method, which incorporate specific features that provide a modelling framework for count data. One challenge with count data is overdispersion, but methods are available that can account for this through the introduction of random effect terms in the modelling, and it is this modelling framework that leads to the negative binomial distribution. These models can also provide clinicians with a clearer and more appropriate interpretation of treatment effects in terms of rate ratios. In this paper, the previously used parametric and non-parametric approaches are contrasted with those based on Poisson regression and various extensions in trials evaluating solifenacin and mirabegron in patients with overactive bladder. In these applications, negative binomial models are seen to fit the data well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. A methodology to design heuristics for model selection based on the characteristics of data: Application to investigate when the Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB).

    PubMed

    Shirazi, Mohammadali; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

    2017-10-01

    Safety analysts usually use post-modeling methods, such as the Goodness-of-Fit statistics or the Likelihood Ratio Test, to decide between two or more competitive distributions or models. Such metrics require all competitive distributions to be fitted to the data before any comparisons can be accomplished. Given the continuous growth in introducing new statistical distributions, choosing the best one using such post-modeling methods is not a trivial task, in addition to all theoretical or numerical issues the analyst may face during the analysis. Furthermore, and most importantly, these measures or tests do not provide any intuitions into why a specific distribution (or model) is preferred over another (Goodness-of-Logic). This paper ponders into these issues by proposing a methodology to design heuristics for Model Selection based on the characteristics of data, in terms of descriptive summary statistics, before fitting the models. The proposed methodology employs two analytic tools: (1) Monte-Carlo Simulations and (2) Machine Learning Classifiers, to design easy heuristics to predict the label of the 'most-likely-true' distribution for analyzing data. The proposed methodology was applied to investigate when the recently introduced Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) distribution is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Heuristics were designed to select the 'most-likely-true' distribution between these two distributions, given a set of prescribed summary statistics of data. The proposed heuristics were successfully compared against classical tests for several real or observed datasets. Not only they are easy to use and do not need any post-modeling inputs, but also, using these heuristics, the analyst can attain useful information about why the NB-L is preferred over the NB - or vice versa- when modeling data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson models with application to studies of abundance for multiple species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arab, Ali; Holan, Scott H.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    Ecological studies involving counts of abundance, presence–absence or occupancy rates often produce data having a substantial proportion of zeros. Furthermore, these types of processes are typically multivariate and only adequately described by complex nonlinear relationships involving externally measured covariates. Ignoring these aspects of the data and implementing standard approaches can lead to models that fail to provide adequate scientific understanding of the underlying ecological processes, possibly resulting in a loss of inferential power. One method of dealing with data having excess zeros is to consider the class of univariate zero-inflated generalized linear models. However, this class of models fails to address the multivariate and nonlinear aspects associated with the data usually encountered in practice. Therefore, we propose a semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model that takes into account both of these data attributes. The general modeling framework is hierarchical Bayes and is suitable for a broad range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example on modeling catch per unit area for multiple species using data from the Missouri River Benthic Fishes Study, implemented by the United States Geological Survey.

  14. Some findings on zero-inflated and hurdle poisson models for disease mapping.

    PubMed

    Corpas-Burgos, Francisca; García-Donato, Gonzalo; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A

    2018-05-27

    Zero excess in the study of geographically referenced mortality data sets has been the focus of considerable attention in the literature, with zero-inflation being the most common procedure to handle this lack of fit. Although hurdle models have also been used in disease mapping studies, their use is more rare. We show in this paper that models using particular treatments of zero excesses are often required for achieving appropriate fits in regular mortality studies since, otherwise, geographical units with low expected counts are oversmoothed. However, as also shown, an indiscriminate treatment of zero excess may be unnecessary and has a problematic implementation. In this regard, we find that naive zero-inflation and hurdle models, without an explicit modeling of the probabilities of zeroes, do not fix zero excesses problems well enough and are clearly unsatisfactory. Results sharply suggest the need for an explicit modeling of the probabilities that should vary across areal units. Unfortunately, these more flexible modeling strategies can easily lead to improper posterior distributions as we prove in several theoretical results. Those procedures have been repeatedly used in the disease mapping literature, and one should bear these issues in mind in order to propose valid models. We finally propose several valid modeling alternatives according to the results mentioned that are suitable for fitting zero excesses. We show that those proposals fix zero excesses problems and correct the mentioned oversmoothing of risks in low populated units depicting geographic patterns more suited to the data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Zero inflation in ordinal data: Incorporating susceptibility to response through the use of a mixture model

    PubMed Central

    Kelley, Mary E.; Anderson, Stewart J.

    2008-01-01

    Summary The aim of the paper is to produce a methodology that will allow users of ordinal scale data to more accurately model the distribution of ordinal outcomes in which some subjects are susceptible to exhibiting the response and some are not (i.e., the dependent variable exhibits zero inflation). This situation occurs with ordinal scales in which there is an anchor that represents the absence of the symptom or activity, such as “none”, “never” or “normal”, and is particularly common when measuring abnormal behavior, symptoms, and side effects. Due to the unusually large number of zeros, traditional statistical tests of association can be non-informative. We propose a mixture model for ordinal data with a built-in probability of non-response that allows modeling of the range (e.g., severity) of the scale, while simultaneously modeling the presence/absence of the symptom. Simulations show that the model is well behaved and a likelihood ratio test can be used to choose between the zero-inflated and the traditional proportional odds model. The model, however, does have minor restrictions on the nature of the covariates that must be satisfied in order for the model to be identifiable. The method is particularly relevant for public health research such as large epidemiological surveys where more careful documentation of the reasons for response may be difficult. PMID:18351711

  16. Application of a hurdle negative binomial count data model to demand for bass fishing in the southeastern United States.

    PubMed

    Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Florkowski, Wojciech J

    2007-06-01

    This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a bass fishing trip taken in the southeastern United States using a hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a bass is estimated in the first stage and the fishing trip frequency is estimated in the second stage for individuals reporting bass fishing trips in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision to take a trip and the trip number. Calculated partial and total elasticities indicate a highly inelastic demand for the number of fishing trips as trip costs increase. However, the demand can be expected to increase if anglers experience a success measured by the number of caught fish or their size. Benefit estimates based on alternative estimation methods differ substantially, suggesting the need for testing each modeling approach applied in empirical studies.

  17. Hurdle models for multilevel zero-inflated data via h-likelihood.

    PubMed

    Molas, Marek; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2010-12-30

    Count data often exhibit overdispersion. One type of overdispersion arises when there is an excess of zeros in comparison with the standard Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated Poisson and hurdle models have been proposed to perform a valid likelihood-based analysis to account for the surplus of zeros. Further, data often arise in clustered, longitudinal or multiple-membership settings. The proper analysis needs to reflect the design of a study. Typically random effects are used to account for dependencies in the data. We examine the h-likelihood estimation and inference framework for hurdle models with random effects for complex designs. We extend the h-likelihood procedures to fit hurdle models, thereby extending h-likelihood to truncated distributions. Two applications of the methodology are presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Zero-Inflated Poisson Modeling of Fall Risk Factors in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    PubMed

    Jung, Dukyoo; Kang, Younhee; Kim, Mi Young; Ma, Rye-Won; Bhandari, Pratibha

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for falls among community-dwelling older adults. The study used a cross-sectional descriptive design. Self-report questionnaires were used to collect data from 658 community-dwelling older adults and were analyzed using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression. Perceived health status was a significant factor in the count model, and fall efficacy emerged as a significant predictor in the logistic models. The findings suggest that fall efficacy is important for predicting not only faller and nonfaller status but also fall counts in older adults who may or may not have experienced a previous fall. The fall predictors identified in this study--perceived health status and fall efficacy--indicate the need for fall-prevention programs tailored to address both the physical and psychological issues unique to older adults. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Single-vehicle crashes along rural mountainous highways in Malaysia: An application of random parameters negative binomial model.

    PubMed

    Rusli, Rusdi; Haque, Md Mazharul; King, Mark; Voon, Wong Shaw

    2017-05-01

    Mountainous highways generally associate with complex driving environment because of constrained road geometries, limited cross-section elements, inappropriate roadside features, and adverse weather conditions. As a result, single-vehicle (SV) crashes are overrepresented along mountainous roads, particularly in developing countries, but little attention is known about the roadway geometric, traffic and weather factors contributing to these SV crashes. As such, the main objective of the present study is to investigate SV crashes using detailed data obtained from a rigorous site survey and existing databases. The final dataset included a total of 56 variables representing road geometries including horizontal and vertical alignment, traffic characteristics, real-time weather condition, cross-sectional elements, roadside features, and spatial characteristics. To account for structured heterogeneities resulting from multiple observations within a site and other unobserved heterogeneities, the study applied a random parameters negative binomial model. Results suggest that rainfall during the crash is positively associated with SV crashes, but real-time visibility is negatively associated. The presence of a road shoulder, particularly a bitumen shoulder or wider shoulders, along mountainous highways is associated with less SV crashes. While speeding along downgrade slopes increases the likelihood of SV crashes, proper delineation decreases the likelihood. Findings of this study have significant implications for designing safer highways in mountainous areas, particularly in the context of a developing country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Binomial Baseball.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levin, Eugene M.

    1981-01-01

    Student access to programmable calculators and computer terminals, coupled with a familiarity with baseball, provides opportunities to enhance their understanding of the binomial distribution and other aspects of analysis. (MP)

  1. Extending the Applicability of the Generalized Likelihood Function for Zero-Inflated Data Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, Debora Y.; Chaffe, Pedro L. B.; Sá, João. H. M.

    2018-03-01

    Proper uncertainty estimation for data series with a high proportion of zero and near zero observations has been a challenge in hydrologic studies. This technical note proposes a modification to the Generalized Likelihood function that accounts for zero inflation of the error distribution (ZI-GL). We compare the performance of the proposed ZI-GL with the original Generalized Likelihood function using the entire data series (GL) and by simply suppressing zero observations (GLy>0). These approaches were applied to two interception modeling examples characterized by data series with a significant number of zeros. The ZI-GL produced better uncertainty ranges than the GL as measured by the precision, reliability and volumetric bias metrics. The comparison between ZI-GL and GLy>0 highlights the need for further improvement in the treatment of residuals from near zero simulations when a linear heteroscedastic error model is considered. Aside from the interception modeling examples illustrated herein, the proposed ZI-GL may be useful for other hydrologic studies, such as for the modeling of the runoff generation in hillslopes and ephemeral catchments.

  2. Statistical inference for time course RNA-Seq data using a negative binomial mixed-effect model.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiaoxiao; Dalpiaz, David; Wu, Di; S Liu, Jun; Zhong, Wenxuan; Ma, Ping

    2016-08-26

    Accurate identification of differentially expressed (DE) genes in time course RNA-Seq data is crucial for understanding the dynamics of transcriptional regulatory network. However, most of the available methods treat gene expressions at different time points as replicates and test the significance of the mean expression difference between treatments or conditions irrespective of time. They thus fail to identify many DE genes with different profiles across time. In this article, we propose a negative binomial mixed-effect model (NBMM) to identify DE genes in time course RNA-Seq data. In the NBMM, mean gene expression is characterized by a fixed effect, and time dependency is described by random effects. The NBMM is very flexible and can be fitted to both unreplicated and replicated time course RNA-Seq data via a penalized likelihood method. By comparing gene expression profiles over time, we further classify the DE genes into two subtypes to enhance the understanding of expression dynamics. A significance test for detecting DE genes is derived using a Kullback-Leibler distance ratio. Additionally, a significance test for gene sets is developed using a gene set score. Simulation analysis shows that the NBMM outperforms currently available methods for detecting DE genes and gene sets. Moreover, our real data analysis of fruit fly developmental time course RNA-Seq data demonstrates the NBMM identifies biologically relevant genes which are well justified by gene ontology analysis. The proposed method is powerful and efficient to detect biologically relevant DE genes and gene sets in time course RNA-Seq data.

  3. Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models.

    PubMed

    Chan, Ta-Chien; Teng, Yung-Chu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang

    2015-02-21

    Emerging novel influenza outbreaks have increasingly been a threat to the public and a major concern of public health departments. Real-time data in seamless surveillance systems such as health insurance claims data for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) are ready for analysis, making it highly desirable to develop practical techniques to analyze such readymade data for outbreak detection so that the public can receive timely influenza epidemic warnings. This study proposes a simple and effective approach to analyze area-based health insurance claims data including outpatient and emergency department (ED) visits for early detection of any aberrations of ILI. The health insurance claims data during 2004-2009 from a national health insurance research database were used for developing early detection methods. The proposed approach fitted the daily new ILI visits and monitored the Pearson residuals directly for aberration detection. First, negative binomial regression was used for both outpatient and ED visits to adjust for potentially influential factors such as holidays, weekends, seasons, temporal dependence and temperature. Second, if the Pearson residuals exceeded 1.96, aberration signals were issued. The empirical validation of the model was done in 2008 and 2009. In addition, we designed a simulation study to compare the time of outbreak detection, non-detection probability and false alarm rate between the proposed method and modified CUSUM. The model successfully detected the aberrations of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus in northern, central and southern Taiwan. The proposed approach was more sensitive in identifying aberrations in ED visits than those in outpatient visits. Simulation studies demonstrated that the proposed approach could detect the aberrations earlier, and with lower non-detection probability and mean false alarm rate in detecting aberrations compared to modified CUSUM methods. The proposed simple approach was able to filter out temporal

  4. Linking parasite populations in hosts to parasite populations in space through Taylor's law and the negative binomial distribution

    PubMed Central

    Poulin, Robert; Lagrue, Clément

    2017-01-01

    The spatial distribution of individuals of any species is a basic concern of ecology. The spatial distribution of parasites matters to control and conservation of parasites that affect human and nonhuman populations. This paper develops a quantitative theory to predict the spatial distribution of parasites based on the distribution of parasites in hosts and the spatial distribution of hosts. Four models are tested against observations of metazoan hosts and their parasites in littoral zones of four lakes in Otago, New Zealand. These models differ in two dichotomous assumptions, constituting a 2 × 2 theoretical design. One assumption specifies whether the variance function of the number of parasites per host individual is described by Taylor's law (TL) or the negative binomial distribution (NBD). The other assumption specifies whether the numbers of parasite individuals within each host in a square meter of habitat are independent or perfectly correlated among host individuals. We find empirically that the variance–mean relationship of the numbers of parasites per square meter is very well described by TL but is not well described by NBD. Two models that posit perfect correlation of the parasite loads of hosts in a square meter of habitat approximate observations much better than two models that posit independence of parasite loads of hosts in a square meter, regardless of whether the variance–mean relationship of parasites per host individual obeys TL or NBD. We infer that high local interhost correlations in parasite load strongly influence the spatial distribution of parasites. Local hotspots could influence control and conservation of parasites. PMID:27994156

  5. GMPR: A robust normalization method for zero-inflated count data with application to microbiome sequencing data.

    PubMed

    Chen, Li; Reeve, James; Zhang, Lujun; Huang, Shengbing; Wang, Xuefeng; Chen, Jun

    2018-01-01

    Normalization is the first critical step in microbiome sequencing data analysis used to account for variable library sizes. Current RNA-Seq based normalization methods that have been adapted for microbiome data fail to consider the unique characteristics of microbiome data, which contain a vast number of zeros due to the physical absence or under-sampling of the microbes. Normalization methods that specifically address the zero-inflation remain largely undeveloped. Here we propose geometric mean of pairwise ratios-a simple but effective normalization method-for zero-inflated sequencing data such as microbiome data. Simulation studies and real datasets analyses demonstrate that the proposed method is more robust than competing methods, leading to more powerful detection of differentially abundant taxa and higher reproducibility of the relative abundances of taxa.

  6. Classifying next-generation sequencing data using a zero-inflated Poisson model.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yan; Wan, Xiang; Zhang, Baoxue; Tong, Tiejun

    2018-04-15

    With the development of high-throughput techniques, RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) is becoming increasingly popular as an alternative for gene expression analysis, such as RNAs profiling and classification. Identifying which type of diseases a new patient belongs to with RNA-seq data has been recognized as a vital problem in medical research. As RNA-seq data are discrete, statistical methods developed for classifying microarray data cannot be readily applied for RNA-seq data classification. Witten proposed a Poisson linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) to classify the RNA-seq data in 2011. Note, however, that the count datasets are frequently characterized by excess zeros in real RNA-seq or microRNA sequence data (i.e. when the sequence depth is not enough or small RNAs with the length of 18-30 nucleotides). Therefore, it is desired to develop a new model to analyze RNA-seq data with an excess of zeros. In this paper, we propose a Zero-Inflated Poisson Logistic Discriminant Analysis (ZIPLDA) for RNA-seq data with an excess of zeros. The new method assumes that the data are from a mixture of two distributions: one is a point mass at zero, and the other follows a Poisson distribution. We then consider a logistic relation between the probability of observing zeros and the mean of the genes and the sequencing depth in the model. Simulation studies show that the proposed method performs better than, or at least as well as, the existing methods in a wide range of settings. Two real datasets including a breast cancer RNA-seq dataset and a microRNA-seq dataset are also analyzed, and they coincide with the simulation results that our proposed method outperforms the existing competitors. The software is available at http://www.math.hkbu.edu.hk/∼tongt. xwan@comp.hkbu.edu.hk or tongt@hkbu.edu.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  7. Marginalized multilevel hurdle and zero-inflated models for overdispersed and correlated count data with excess zeros.

    PubMed

    Kassahun, Wondwosen; Neyens, Thomas; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Verbeke, Geert

    2014-11-10

    Count data are collected repeatedly over time in many applications, such as biology, epidemiology, and public health. Such data are often characterized by the following three features. First, correlation due to the repeated measures is usually accounted for using subject-specific random effects, which are assumed to be normally distributed. Second, the sample variance may exceed the mean, and hence, the theoretical mean-variance relationship is violated, leading to overdispersion. This is usually allowed for based on a hierarchical approach, combining a Poisson model with gamma distributed random effects. Third, an excess of zeros beyond what standard count distributions can predict is often handled by either the hurdle or the zero-inflated model. A zero-inflated model assumes two processes as sources of zeros and combines a count distribution with a discrete point mass as a mixture, while the hurdle model separately handles zero observations and positive counts, where then a truncated-at-zero count distribution is used for the non-zero state. In practice, however, all these three features can appear simultaneously. Hence, a modeling framework that incorporates all three is necessary, and this presents challenges for the data analysis. Such models, when conditionally specified, will naturally have a subject-specific interpretation. However, adopting their purposefully modified marginalized versions leads to a direct marginal or population-averaged interpretation for parameter estimates of covariate effects, which is the primary interest in many applications. In this paper, we present a marginalized hurdle model and a marginalized zero-inflated model for correlated and overdispersed count data with excess zero observations and then illustrate these further with two case studies. The first dataset focuses on the Anopheles mosquito density around a hydroelectric dam, while adolescents' involvement in work, to earn money and support their families or themselves, is

  8. Mapping species abundance by a spatial zero-inflated Poisson model: a case study in the Wadden Sea, the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Lyashevska, Olga; Brus, Dick J; van der Meer, Jaap

    2016-01-01

    The objective of the study was to provide a general procedure for mapping species abundance when data are zero-inflated and spatially correlated counts. The bivalve species Macoma balthica was observed on a 500×500 m grid in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. In total, 66% of the 3451 counts were zeros. A zero-inflated Poisson mixture model was used to relate counts to environmental covariates. Two models were considered, one with relatively fewer covariates (model "small") than the other (model "large"). The models contained two processes: a Bernoulli (species prevalence) and a Poisson (species intensity, when the Bernoulli process predicts presence). The model was used to make predictions for sites where only environmental data are available. Predicted prevalences and intensities show that the model "small" predicts lower mean prevalence and higher mean intensity, than the model "large". Yet, the product of prevalence and intensity, which might be called the unconditional intensity, is very similar. Cross-validation showed that the model "small" performed slightly better, but the difference was small. The proposed methodology might be generally applicable, but is computer intensive.

  9. Marginal regression models for clustered count data based on zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution with applications.

    PubMed

    Choo-Wosoba, Hyoyoung; Levy, Steven M; Datta, Somnath

    2016-06-01

    Community water fluoridation is an important public health measure to prevent dental caries, but it continues to be somewhat controversial. The Iowa Fluoride Study (IFS) is a longitudinal study on a cohort of Iowa children that began in 1991. The main purposes of this study (http://www.dentistry.uiowa.edu/preventive-fluoride-study) were to quantify fluoride exposures from both dietary and nondietary sources and to associate longitudinal fluoride exposures with dental fluorosis (spots on teeth) and dental caries (cavities). We analyze a subset of the IFS data by a marginal regression model with a zero-inflated version of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution for count data exhibiting excessive zeros and a wide range of dispersion patterns. In general, we introduce two estimation methods for fitting a ZICMP marginal regression model. Finite sample behaviors of the estimators and the resulting confidence intervals are studied using extensive simulation studies. We apply our methodologies to the dental caries data. Our novel modeling incorporating zero inflation, clustering, and overdispersion sheds some new light on the effect of community water fluoridation and other factors. We also include a second application of our methodology to a genomic (next-generation sequencing) dataset that exhibits underdispersion. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Functional linear models for zero-inflated count data with application to modeling hospitalizations in patients on dialysis.

    PubMed

    Sentürk, Damla; Dalrymple, Lorien S; Nguyen, Danh V

    2014-11-30

    We propose functional linear models for zero-inflated count data with a focus on the functional hurdle and functional zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models. Although the hurdle model assumes the counts come from a mixture of a degenerate distribution at zero and a zero-truncated Poisson distribution, the ZIP model considers a mixture of a degenerate distribution at zero and a standard Poisson distribution. We extend the generalized functional linear model framework with a functional predictor and multiple cross-sectional predictors to model counts generated by a mixture distribution. We propose an estimation procedure for functional hurdle and ZIP models, called penalized reconstruction, geared towards error-prone and sparsely observed longitudinal functional predictors. The approach relies on dimension reduction and pooling of information across subjects involving basis expansions and penalized maximum likelihood techniques. The developed functional hurdle model is applied to modeling hospitalizations within the first 2 years from initiation of dialysis, with a high percentage of zeros, in the Comprehensive Dialysis Study participants. Hospitalization counts are modeled as a function of sparse longitudinal measurements of serum albumin concentrations, patient demographics, and comorbidities. Simulation studies are used to study finite sample properties of the proposed method and include comparisons with an adaptation of standard principal components regression. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Empirical null estimation using zero-inflated discrete mixture distributions and its application to protein domain data.

    PubMed

    Gauran, Iris Ivy M; Park, Junyong; Lim, Johan; Park, DoHwan; Zylstra, John; Peterson, Thomas; Kann, Maricel; Spouge, John L

    2017-09-22

    In recent mutation studies, analyses based on protein domain positions are gaining popularity over gene-centric approaches since the latter have limitations in considering the functional context that the position of the mutation provides. This presents a large-scale simultaneous inference problem, with hundreds of hypothesis tests to consider at the same time. This article aims to select significant mutation counts while controlling a given level of Type I error via False Discovery Rate (FDR) procedures. One main assumption is that the mutation counts follow a zero-inflated model in order to account for the true zeros in the count model and the excess zeros. The class of models considered is the Zero-inflated Generalized Poisson (ZIGP) distribution. Furthermore, we assumed that there exists a cut-off value such that smaller counts than this value are generated from the null distribution. We present several data-dependent methods to determine the cut-off value. We also consider a two-stage procedure based on screening process so that the number of mutations exceeding a certain value should be considered as significant mutations. Simulated and protein domain data sets are used to illustrate this procedure in estimation of the empirical null using a mixture of discrete distributions. Overall, while maintaining control of the FDR, the proposed two-stage testing procedure has superior empirical power. 2017 The Authors. Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  12. QNB: differential RNA methylation analysis for count-based small-sample sequencing data with a quad-negative binomial model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Lian; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Huang, Yufei; Meng, Jia

    2017-08-31

    As a newly emerged research area, RNA epigenetics has drawn increasing attention recently for the participation of RNA methylation and other modifications in a number of crucial biological processes. Thanks to high throughput sequencing techniques, such as, MeRIP-Seq, transcriptome-wide RNA methylation profile is now available in the form of count-based data, with which it is often of interests to study the dynamics at epitranscriptomic layer. However, the sample size of RNA methylation experiment is usually very small due to its costs; and additionally, there usually exist a large number of genes whose methylation level cannot be accurately estimated due to their low expression level, making differential RNA methylation analysis a difficult task. We present QNB, a statistical approach for differential RNA methylation analysis with count-based small-sample sequencing data. Compared with previous approaches such as DRME model based on a statistical test covering the IP samples only with 2 negative binomial distributions, QNB is based on 4 independent negative binomial distributions with their variances and means linked by local regressions, and in the way, the input control samples are also properly taken care of. In addition, different from DRME approach, which relies only the input control sample only for estimating the background, QNB uses a more robust estimator for gene expression by combining information from both input and IP samples, which could largely improve the testing performance for very lowly expressed genes. QNB showed improved performance on both simulated and real MeRIP-Seq datasets when compared with competing algorithms. And the QNB model is also applicable to other datasets related RNA modifications, including but not limited to RNA bisulfite sequencing, m 1 A-Seq, Par-CLIP, RIP-Seq, etc.

  13. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models for QTL mapping applied to tick-resistance in a Gyr × Holstein F2 population

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Fabyano Fonseca; Tunin, Karen P.; Rosa, Guilherme J.M.; da Silva, Marcos V.B.; Azevedo, Ana Luisa Souza; da Silva Verneque, Rui; Machado, Marco Antonio; Packer, Irineu Umberto

    2011-01-01

    Now a days, an important and interesting alternative in the control of tick-infestation in cattle is to select resistant animals, and identify the respective quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and DNA markers, for posterior use in breeding programs. The number of ticks/animal is characterized as a discrete-counting trait, which could potentially follow Poisson distribution. However, in the case of an excess of zeros, due to the occurrence of several noninfected animals, zero-inflated Poisson and generalized zero-inflated distribution (GZIP) may provide a better description of the data. Thus, the objective here was to compare through simulation, Poisson and ZIP models (simple and generalized) with classical approaches, for QTL mapping with counting phenotypes under different scenarios, and to apply these approaches to a QTL study of tick resistance in an F2 cattle (Gyr × Holstein) population. It was concluded that, when working with zero-inflated data, it is recommendable to use the generalized and simple ZIP model for analysis. On the other hand, when working with data with zeros, but not zero-inflated, the Poisson model or a data-transformation-approach, such as square-root or Box-Cox transformation, are applicable. PMID:22215960

  14. Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of zero-inflated biological population density data by a delta-normal spatiotemporal additive model.

    PubMed

    Arcuti, Simona; Pollice, Alessio; Ribecco, Nunziata; D'Onghia, Gianfranco

    2016-03-01

    We evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in the density of a particular species of crustacean known as deep-water rose shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris, based on biological sample data collected during trawl surveys carried out from 1995 to 2006 as part of the international project MEDITS (MEDiterranean International Trawl Surveys). As is the case for many biological variables, density data are continuous and characterized by unusually large amounts of zeros, accompanied by a skewed distribution of the remaining values. Here we analyze the normalized density data by a Bayesian delta-normal semiparametric additive model including the effects of covariates, using penalized regression with low-rank thin-plate splines for nonlinear spatial and temporal effects. Modeling the zero and nonzero values by two joint processes, as we propose in this work, allows to obtain great flexibility and easily handling of complex likelihood functions, avoiding inaccurate statistical inferences due to misclassification of the high proportion of exact zeros in the model. Bayesian model estimation is obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, suitably specifying the complex likelihood function of the zero-inflated density data. The study highlights relevant nonlinear spatial and temporal effects and the influence of the annual Mediterranean oscillations index and of the sea surface temperature on the distribution of the deep-water rose shrimp density. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  16. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil.

    PubMed

    Nobre, Aline Araújo; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Griep, Rosane Härter; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Chor, Dora

    2017-08-17

    To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income. The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  17. Negative Urgency, Distress Tolerance, and Substance Abuse Among College Students

    PubMed Central

    Kaiser, Alison J.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.; Charnigo, Richard J.

    2012-01-01

    Objective Negative affect has been consistently linked with substance use/problems in prior research. The present study sought to build upon these findings by exploring how an individual’s characteristic responding to negative affect impacts substance abuse risk. Trait negative affect was examined in relation to substance abuse outcomes along with two variables tapping into response to negative affect: Distress Tolerance, an individual’s perceived ability to tolerate negative affect, and Negative Urgency, the tendency to act rashly while experiencing distress. Method Participants were 525 first-year college students (48.1% male, 81.1% Caucasian), who completed self-report measures assessing personality traits and alcohol-related problems, and a structured interview assessing past and current substance use. Relations were tested using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models, and each of the personality variables was tested in a model on its own, and in a model where all three traits were accounted for. Results Negative Urgency emerged as the best predictor, relating to every one of the substance use outcome variables even when trait negative affect and Distress Tolerance were accounted for. Conclusions These findings suggest that Negative Urgency is an important factor to consider in developing prevention and intervention efforts aimed at reducing substance use and problems. PMID:22698894

  18. Library Book Circulation and the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gelman, E.; Sichel, H. S.

    1987-01-01

    Argues that library book circulation is a binomial rather than a Poisson process, and that individual book popularities are continuous beta distributions. Three examples demonstrate the superiority of beta over negative binomial distribution, and it is suggested that a bivariate-binomial process would be helpful in predicting future book…

  19. An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

    PubMed

    Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

    2013-12-01

    Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (<4%), we can initially expect to see an increase in bicycle collisions as cycle mode share increases. However, as bicycle mode share increases beyond some unknown 'critical' level, our hypothesis also predicts a net safety improvement. To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall road

  20. A time-varying effect model for examining group differences in trajectories of zero-inflated count outcomes with applications in substance abuse research.

    PubMed

    Yang, Songshan; Cranford, James A; Jester, Jennifer M; Li, Runze; Zucker, Robert A; Buu, Anne

    2017-02-28

    This study proposes a time-varying effect model for examining group differences in trajectories of zero-inflated count outcomes. The motivating example demonstrates that this zero-inflated Poisson model allows investigators to study group differences in different aspects of substance use (e.g., the probability of abstinence and the quantity of alcohol use) simultaneously. The simulation study shows that the accuracy of estimation of trajectory functions improves as the sample size increases; the accuracy under equal group sizes is only higher when the sample size is small (100). In terms of the performance of the hypothesis testing, the type I error rates are close to their corresponding significance levels under all settings. Furthermore, the power increases as the alternative hypothesis deviates more from the null hypothesis, and the rate of this increasing trend is higher when the sample size is larger. Moreover, the hypothesis test for the group difference in the zero component tends to be less powerful than the test for the group difference in the Poisson component. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. MIXED MODEL AND ESTIMATING EQUATION APPROACHES FOR ZERO INFLATION IN CLUSTERED BINARY RESPONSE DATA WITH APPLICATION TO A DATING VIOLENCE STUDY1

    PubMed Central

    Fulton, Kara A.; Liu, Danping; Haynie, Denise L.; Albert, Paul S.

    2016-01-01

    The NEXT Generation Health study investigates the dating violence of adolescents using a survey questionnaire. Each student is asked to affirm or deny multiple instances of violence in his/her dating relationship. There is, however, evidence suggesting that students not in a relationship responded to the survey, resulting in excessive zeros in the responses. This paper proposes likelihood-based and estimating equation approaches to analyze the zero-inflated clustered binary response data. We adopt a mixed model method to account for the cluster effect, and the model parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood (ML) approach that requires a Gaussian–Hermite quadrature (GHQ) approximation for implementation. Since an incorrect assumption on the random effects distribution may bias the results, we construct generalized estimating equations (GEE) that do not require the correct specification of within-cluster correlation. In a series of simulation studies, we examine the performance of ML and GEE methods in terms of their bias, efficiency and robustness. We illustrate the importance of properly accounting for this zero inflation by reanalyzing the NEXT data where this issue has previously been ignored. PMID:26937263

  2. Applying the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects to detect abnormal rises in school absenteeism indicating infectious diseases outbreak.

    PubMed

    Song, X X; Zhao, Q; Tao, T; Zhou, C M; Diwan, V K; Xu, B

    2018-05-30

    Records of absenteeism from primary schools are valuable data for infectious diseases surveillance. However, the analysis of the absenteeism is complicated by the data features of clustering at zero, non-independence and overdispersion. This study aimed to generate an appropriate model to handle the absenteeism data collected in a European Commission granted project for infectious disease surveillance in rural China and to evaluate the validity and timeliness of the resulting model for early warnings of infectious disease outbreak. Four steps were taken: (1) building a 'well-fitting' model by the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects (ZIP-RE) using the absenteeism data from the first implementation year; (2) applying the resulting model to predict the 'expected' number of absenteeism events in the second implementation year; (3) computing the differences between the observations and the expected values (O-E values) to generate an alternative series of data; (4) evaluating the early warning validity and timeliness of the observational data and model-based O-E values via the EARS-3C algorithms with regard to the detection of real cluster events. The results indicate that ZIP-RE and its corresponding O-E values could improve the detection of aberrations, reduce the false-positive signals and are applicable to the zero-inflated data.

  3. Zero-Inflated Models for Identifying Relationships Between Body Mass Index and Gastroesophageal Reflux Symptoms: A Nationwide Population-Based Study in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Qin; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Tianyi; Zhang, Ruijie; Zhao, Yanfang; Zhang, Yuan; Guo, Yibin; Wang, Rui; Ma, Xiuqiang; He, Jia

    2016-07-01

    That obesity leads to gastroesophageal reflux is a widespread notion. However, scientific evidence for this association is limited, with no rigorous epidemiological approach conducted to address this question. This study examined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms in a large population-representative sample from China. We performed a cross-sectional study in an age- and gender-stratified random sample of the population of five central regions in China. Participants aged 18-80 years completed a general information questionnaire and a Chinese version of the Reflux Disease Questionnaire. The zero-inflated Poisson regression model estimated the relationship between body mass index and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Overall, 16,091 (89.4 %) of the 18,000 eligible participants responded. 638 (3.97 %) and 1738 (10.81 %) experienced at least weekly heartburn and weekly acid regurgitation, respectively. After adjusting for potential risk factors in the zero-inflated part, the frequency [odds ratio (OR) 0.66, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 0.50-0.86, p = 0.002] and severity (OR 0.66, 95 % CI 0.50-088, p = 0.004) of heartburn in obese participants were statistically significant compared to those in normal participants. In the Poisson part, the frequency of acid regurgitation, overweight (OR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.01-1.21, p = 0.038) and obesity (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.04-1.37, p = 0.013) were statistically significant. BMI was strongly and positively related to the frequency and severity of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Additionally, gender exerted strong specific effects on the relationship between BMI and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. The severity and frequency of heartburn were positively correlated with obesity. This relationship was presented distinct in male participants only.

  4. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  5. A comparison between Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson regression models with an application to number of black spots in Corriedale sheep

    PubMed Central

    Naya, Hugo; Urioste, Jorge I; Chang, Yu-Mei; Rodrigues-Motta, Mariana; Kremer, Roberto; Gianola, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    Dark spots in the fleece area are often associated with dark fibres in wool, which limits its competitiveness with other textile fibres. Field data from a sheep experiment in Uruguay revealed an excess number of zeros for dark spots. We compared the performance of four Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models under four simulation scenarios. All models performed reasonably well under the same scenario for which the data were simulated. The deviance information criterion favoured a Poisson model with residual, while the ZIP model with a residual gave estimates closer to their true values under all simulation scenarios. Both Poisson and ZIP models with an error term at the regression level performed better than their counterparts without such an error. Field data from Corriedale sheep were analysed with Poisson and ZIP models with residuals. Parameter estimates were similar for both models. Although the posterior distribution of the sire variance was skewed due to a small number of rams in the dataset, the median of this variance suggested a scope for genetic selection. The main environmental factor was the age of the sheep at shearing. In summary, age related processes seem to drive the number of dark spots in this breed of sheep. PMID:18558072

  6. Zero-inflated modeling of fish catch per unit area resulting from multiple gears: Application to channel catfish and shovelnose sturgeon in the Missouri River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arab, A.; Wildhaber, M.L.; Wikle, C.K.; Gentry, C.N.

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries studies often employ multiple gears that result in large percentages of zero values. We considered a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model with random effects to address these excessive zeros. By employing a Bayesian ZIP model that simultaneously incorporates data from multiple gears to analyze data from the Missouri River, we were able to compare gears and make more year, segment, and macrohabitat comparisons than did the original data analysis. For channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus, our results rank (highest to lowest) the mean catch per unit area (CPUA) for gears (beach seine, benthic trawl, electrofishing, and drifting trammel net); years (1998 and 1997); macrohabitats (tributary mouth, connected secondary channel, nonconnected secondary channel, and bend); and river segment zones (channelized, inter-reservoir, and least-altered). For shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, the mean CPUA was significantly higher for benthic trawls and drifting trammel nets; 1998 and 1997; tributary mouths, bends, and connected secondary channels; and some channelized or least-altered inter-reservoir segments. One important advantage of our approach is the ability to reliably infer patterns of relative abundance by means of multiple gears without using gear efficiencies. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  7. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  8. The Binomial Distribution in Shooting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chalikias, Miltiadis S.

    2009-01-01

    The binomial distribution is used to predict the winner of the 49th International Shooting Sport Federation World Championship in double trap shooting held in 2006 in Zagreb, Croatia. The outcome of the competition was definitely unexpected.

  9. Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musenge, Eustasius; Chirwa, Tobias Freeman; Kahn, Kathleen; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2013-06-01

    Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992-2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.

  10. Binomial test statistics using Psi functions

    SciTech Connect

    Bowman, Kimiko o

    2007-01-01

    For the negative binomial model (probability generating function (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}) a logarithmic derivative is the Psi function difference {psi}(k + x) - {psi}(k); this and its derivatives lead to a test statistic to decide on the validity of a specified model. The test statistic uses a data base so there exists a comparison available between theory and application. Note that the test function is not dominated by outliers. Applications to (i) Fisher's tick data, (ii) accidents data, (iii) Weldon's dice data are included.

  11. Integer Solutions of Binomial Coefficients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

    2016-01-01

    A good formula is like a good story, rich in description, powerful in communication, and eye-opening to readers. The formula presented in this article for determining the coefficients of the binomial expansion of (x + y)n is one such "good read." The beauty of this formula is in its simplicity--both describing a quantitative situation…

  12. Problems on Divisibility of Binomial Coefficients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osler, Thomas J.; Smoak, James

    2004-01-01

    Twelve unusual problems involving divisibility of the binomial coefficients are represented in this article. The problems are listed in "The Problems" section. All twelve problems have short solutions which are listed in "The Solutions" section. These problems could be assigned to students in any course in which the binomial theorem and Pascal's…

  13. Binomial leap methods for simulating stochastic chemical kinetics.

    PubMed

    Tian, Tianhai; Burrage, Kevin

    2004-12-01

    This paper discusses efficient simulation methods for stochastic chemical kinetics. Based on the tau-leap and midpoint tau-leap methods of Gillespie [D. T. Gillespie, J. Chem. Phys. 115, 1716 (2001)], binomial random variables are used in these leap methods rather than Poisson random variables. The motivation for this approach is to improve the efficiency of the Poisson leap methods by using larger stepsizes. Unlike Poisson random variables whose range of sample values is from zero to infinity, binomial random variables have a finite range of sample values. This probabilistic property has been used to restrict possible reaction numbers and to avoid negative molecular numbers in stochastic simulations when larger stepsize is used. In this approach a binomial random variable is defined for a single reaction channel in order to keep the reaction number of this channel below the numbers of molecules that undergo this reaction channel. A sampling technique is also designed for the total reaction number of a reactant species that undergoes two or more reaction channels. Samples for the total reaction number are not greater than the molecular number of this species. In addition, probability properties of the binomial random variables provide stepsize conditions for restricting reaction numbers in a chosen time interval. These stepsize conditions are important properties of robust leap control strategies. Numerical results indicate that the proposed binomial leap methods can be applied to a wide range of chemical reaction systems with very good accuracy and significant improvement on efficiency over existing approaches. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

  14. Zero adjusted models with applications to analysing helminths count data.

    PubMed

    Chipeta, Michael G; Ngwira, Bagrey M; Simoonga, Christopher; Kazembe, Lawrence N

    2014-11-27

    It is common in public health and epidemiology that the outcome of interest is counts of events occurrence. Analysing these data using classical linear models is mostly inappropriate, even after transformation of outcome variables due to overdispersion. Zero-adjusted mixture count models such as zero-inflated and hurdle count models are applied to count data when over-dispersion and excess zeros exist. Main objective of the current paper is to apply such models to analyse risk factors associated with human helminths (S. haematobium) particularly in a case where there's a high proportion of zero counts. The data were collected during a community-based randomised control trial assessing the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Malawi, and a school-based cross sectional epidemiology survey in Zambia. Count data models including traditional (Poisson and negative binomial) models, zero modified models (zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) and hurdle models (Poisson logit hurdle and negative binomial logit hurdle) were fitted and compared. Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the negative binomial logit hurdle (NBLH) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) showed best performance in both datasets. With regards to zero count capturing, these models performed better than other models. This paper showed that zero modified NBLH and ZINB models are more appropriate methods for the analysis of data with excess zeros. The choice between the hurdle and zero-inflated models should be based on the aim and endpoints of the study.

  15. Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts.

    PubMed

    Preisser, John S; Long, D Leann; Stamm, John W

    2017-01-01

    Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two data sets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in 2 groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial comparing 3 toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analyzed with negative binomial hurdle, zero-inflated negative binomial, and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the randomized clinical trial were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. The choice of statistical model class should match the study's purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children's caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts

    PubMed Central

    Preisser, John S.; Long, D. Leann; Stamm, John W.

    2017-01-01

    Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two datasets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in two groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial (RCT) comparing three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analysed with negative binomial hurdle (NBH), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial (MZINB) models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the RCT were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. Choice of statistical model class should match the study’s purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. PMID:28291962

  17. A Negative Binomial Regression Model for Accuracy Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, Lai-Fa

    2012-01-01

    Rasch used a Poisson model to analyze errors and speed in reading tests. An important property of the Poisson distribution is that the mean and variance are equal. However, in social science research, it is very common for the variance to be greater than the mean (i.e., the data are overdispersed). This study embeds the Rasch model within an…

  18. Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur

    2017-07-01

    In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.

  19. A review on models for count data with extra zeros

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamri, Nik Sarah Nik; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

    2017-04-01

    Typically, the zero inflated models are usually used in modelling count data with excess zeros. The existence of the extra zeros could be structural zeros or random which occur by chance. These types of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences. As found in the literature, the most popular zero inflated models used are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial. Recently, more complex models have been developed to account for overdispersion and unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, more extended distributions are also considered in modelling data with this feature. In this paper, we review related literature, provide a recent development and summary on models for count data with extra zeros.

  20. Zero-state Markov switching count-data models: an empirical assessment.

    PubMed

    Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a two-state Markov switching count-data model is proposed as an alternative to zero-inflated models to account for the preponderance of zeros sometimes observed in transportation count data, such as the number of accidents occurring on a roadway segment over some period of time. For this accident-frequency case, zero-inflated models assume the existence of two states: one of the states is a zero-accident count state, which has accident probabilities that are so low that they cannot be statistically distinguished from zero, and the other state is a normal-count state, in which counts can be non-negative integers that are generated by some counting process, for example, a Poisson or negative binomial. While zero-inflated models have come under some criticism with regard to accident-frequency applications - one fact is undeniable - in many applications they provide a statistically superior fit to the data. The Markov switching approach we propose seeks to overcome some of the criticism associated with the zero-accident state of the zero-inflated model by allowing individual roadway segments to switch between zero and normal-count states over time. An important advantage of this Markov switching approach is that it allows for the direct statistical estimation of the specific roadway-segment state (i.e., zero-accident or normal-count state) whereas traditional zero-inflated models do not. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, a two-state Markov switching negative binomial model (estimated with Bayesian inference) and standard zero-inflated negative binomial models are estimated using five-year accident frequencies on Indiana interstate highway segments. It is shown that the Markov switching model is a viable alternative and results in a superior statistical fit relative to the zero-inflated models.

  1. Modeling avian abundance from replicated counts using binomial mixture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans

    2005-01-01

    Abundance estimation in ecology is usually accomplished by capture–recapture, removal, or distance sampling methods. These may be hard to implement at large spatial scales. In contrast, binomial mixture models enable abundance estimation without individual identification, based simply on temporally and spatially replicated counts. Here, we evaluate mixture models using data from the national breeding bird monitoring program in Switzerland, where some 250 1-km2 quadrats are surveyed using the territory mapping method three times during each breeding season. We chose eight species with contrasting distribution (wide–narrow), abundance (high–low), and detectability (easy–difficult). Abundance was modeled as a random effect with a Poisson or negative binomial distribution, with mean affected by forest cover, elevation, and route length. Detectability was a logit-linear function of survey date, survey date-by-elevation, and sampling effort (time per transect unit). Resulting covariate effects and parameter estimates were consistent with expectations. Detectability per territory (for three surveys) ranged from 0.66 to 0.94 (mean 0.84) for easy species, and from 0.16 to 0.83 (mean 0.53) for difficult species, depended on survey effort for two easy and all four difficult species, and changed seasonally for three easy and three difficult species. Abundance was positively related to route length in three high-abundance and one low-abundance (one easy and three difficult) species, and increased with forest cover in five forest species, decreased for two nonforest species, and was unaffected for a generalist species. Abundance estimates under the most parsimonious mixture models were between 1.1 and 8.9 (median 1.8) times greater than estimates based on territory mapping; hence, three surveys were insufficient to detect all territories for each species. We conclude that binomial mixture models are an important new approach for estimating abundance corrected for

  2. Extending the Binomial Checkpointing Technique for Resilience

    SciTech Connect

    Walther, Andrea; Narayanan, Sri Hari Krishna

    In terms of computing time, adjoint methods offer a very attractive alternative to compute gradient information, re- quired, e.g., for optimization purposes. However, together with this very favorable temporal complexity result comes a memory requirement that is in essence proportional with the operation count of the underlying function, e.g., if algo- rithmic differentiation is used to provide the adjoints. For this reason, checkpointing approaches in many variants have become popular. This paper analyzes an extension of the so-called binomial approach to cover also possible failures of the computing systems. Such a measure of precaution is of special interest for massivemore » parallel simulations and adjoint calculations where the mean time between failure of the large scale computing system is smaller than the time needed to complete the calculation of the adjoint information. We de- scribe the extensions of standard checkpointing approaches required for such resilience, provide a corresponding imple- mentation and discuss numerical results.« less

  3. Using beta binomials to estimate classification uncertainty for ensemble models.

    PubMed

    Clark, Robert D; Liang, Wenkel; Lee, Adam C; Lawless, Michael S; Fraczkiewicz, Robert; Waldman, Marvin

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative structure-activity (QSAR) models have enormous potential for reducing drug discovery and development costs as well as the need for animal testing. Great strides have been made in estimating their overall reliability, but to fully realize that potential, researchers and regulators need to know how confident they can be in individual predictions. Submodels in an ensemble model which have been trained on different subsets of a shared training pool represent multiple samples of the model space, and the degree of agreement among them contains information on the reliability of ensemble predictions. For artificial neural network ensembles (ANNEs) using two different methods for determining ensemble classification - one using vote tallies and the other averaging individual network outputs - we have found that the distribution of predictions across positive vote tallies can be reasonably well-modeled as a beta binomial distribution, as can the distribution of errors. Together, these two distributions can be used to estimate the probability that a given predictive classification will be in error. Large data sets comprised of logP, Ames mutagenicity, and CYP2D6 inhibition data are used to illustrate and validate the method. The distributions of predictions and errors for the training pool accurately predicted the distribution of predictions and errors for large external validation sets, even when the number of positive and negative examples in the training pool were not balanced. Moreover, the likelihood of a given compound being prospectively misclassified as a function of the degree of consensus between networks in the ensemble could in most cases be estimated accurately from the fitted beta binomial distributions for the training pool. Confidence in an individual predictive classification by an ensemble model can be accurately assessed by examining the distributions of predictions and errors as a function of the degree of agreement among the constituent

  4. Application of binomial-edited CPMG to shale characterization

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Washburn, Kathryn E.; Birdwell, Justin E.

    2014-01-01

    Unconventional shale resources may contain a significant amount of hydrogen in organic solids such as kerogen, but it is not possible to directly detect these solids with many NMR systems. Binomial-edited pulse sequences capitalize on magnetization transfer between solids, semi-solids, and liquids to provide an indirect method of detecting solid organic materials in shales. When the organic solids can be directly measured, binomial-editing helps distinguish between different phases. We applied a binomial-edited CPMG pulse sequence to a range of natural and experimentally-altered shale samples. The most substantial signal loss is seen in shales rich in organic solids while fluids associated with inorganic pores seem essentially unaffected. This suggests that binomial-editing is a potential method for determining fluid locations, solid organic content, and kerogen–bitumen discrimination.

  5. Statistical methods for the beta-binomial model in teratology.

    PubMed Central

    Yamamoto, E; Yanagimoto, T

    1994-01-01

    The beta-binomial model is widely used for analyzing teratological data involving littermates. Recent developments in statistical analyses of teratological data are briefly reviewed with emphasis on the model. For statistical inference of the parameters in the beta-binomial distribution, separation of the likelihood introduces an likelihood inference. This leads to reducing biases of estimators and also to improving accuracy of empirical significance levels of tests. Separate inference of the parameters can be conducted in a unified way. PMID:8187716

  6. On Models for Binomial Data with Random Numbers of Trials

    PubMed Central

    Comulada, W. Scott; Weiss, Robert E.

    2010-01-01

    Summary A binomial outcome is a count s of the number of successes out of the total number of independent trials n = s + f, where f is a count of the failures. The n are random variables not fixed by design in many studies. Joint modeling of (s, f) can provide additional insight into the science and into the probability π of success that cannot be directly incorporated by the logistic regression model. Observations where n = 0 are excluded from the binomial analysis yet may be important to understanding how π is influenced by covariates. Correlation between s and f may exist and be of direct interest. We propose Bayesian multivariate Poisson models for the bivariate response (s, f), correlated through random effects. We extend our models to the analysis of longitudinal and multivariate longitudinal binomial outcomes. Our methodology was motivated by two disparate examples, one from teratology and one from an HIV tertiary intervention study. PMID:17688514

  7. Abstract knowledge versus direct experience in processing of binomial expressions

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Emily; Levy, Roger

    2016-01-01

    We ask whether word order preferences for binomial expressions of the form A and B (e.g. bread and butter) are driven by abstract linguistic knowledge of ordering constraints referencing the semantic, phonological, and lexical properties of the constituent words, or by prior direct experience with the specific items in questions. Using forced-choice and self-paced reading tasks, we demonstrate that online processing of never-before-seen binomials is influenced by abstract knowledge of ordering constraints, which we estimate with a probabilistic model. In contrast, online processing of highly frequent binomials is primarily driven by direct experience, which we estimate from corpus frequency counts. We propose a trade-off wherein processing of novel expressions relies upon abstract knowledge, while reliance upon direct experience increases with increased exposure to an expression. Our findings support theories of language processing in which both compositional generation and direct, holistic reuse of multi-word expressions play crucial roles. PMID:27776281

  8. Speech-discrimination scores modeled as a binomial variable.

    PubMed

    Thornton, A R; Raffin, M J

    1978-09-01

    Many studies have reported variability data for tests of speech discrimination, and the disparate results of these studies have not been given a simple explanation. Arguments over the relative merits of 25- vs 50-word tests have ignored the basic mathematical properties inherent in the use of percentage scores. The present study models performance on clinical tests of speech discrimination as a binomial variable. A binomial model was developed, and some of its characteristics were tested against data from 4120 scores obtained on the CID Auditory Test W-22. A table for determining significant deviations between scores was generated and compared to observed differences in half-list scores for the W-22 tests. Good agreement was found between predicted and observed values. Implications of the binomial characteristics of speech-discrimination scores are discussed.

  9. Using the β-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

    Treesearch

    S.J. Zarnoch; R.L. Anderson; R.M. Sheffield

    1995-01-01

    The β-binomial distribution is suggested as a model for describing and analyzing the dichotomous data obtained from programs monitoring the health of forests in the United States. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is given as well as asymptotic likelihood ratio tests. The procedure is illustrated with data on dogwood anthracnose infection (caused...

  10. Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

    1992-01-01

    Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

  11. Estimating the Parameters of the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilcox, Rand R.

    1979-01-01

    For some situations the beta-binomial distribution might be used to describe the marginal distribution of test scores for a particular population of examinees. Several different methods of approximating the maximum likelihood estimate were investigated, and it was found that the Newton-Raphson method should be used when it yields admissable…

  12. Selecting Tools to Model Integer and Binomial Multiplication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pratt, Sarah Smitherman; Eddy, Colleen M.

    2017-01-01

    Mathematics teachers frequently provide concrete manipulatives to students during instruction; however, the rationale for using certain manipulatives in conjunction with concepts may not be explored. This article focuses on area models that are currently used in classrooms to provide concrete examples of integer and binomial multiplication. The…

  13. I Remember You: Independence and the Binomial Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Douglas W.; Rockhill, Beverly

    2006-01-01

    We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

  14. The zero inflation of standing dead tree carbon stocks

    Treesearch

    Christopher W. Woodall; David W. MacFarlane

    2012-01-01

    Given the importance of standing dead trees in numerous forest ecosystem attributes/processes such as carbon (C) stocks, the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program began consistent nationwide sampling of standing dead trees in 1999. Modeled estimates of standing dead tree C stocks are currently used as the official C stock estimates for the...

  15. Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

    PubMed

    Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-08-01

    This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The Binomial Model in Fluctuation Analysis of Quantal Neurotransmitter Release

    PubMed Central

    Quastel, D. M. J.

    1997-01-01

    The mathematics of the binomial model for quantal neurotransmitter release is considered in general terms, to explore what information might be extractable from statistical aspects of data. For an array of N statistically independent release sites, each with a release probability p, the compound binomial always pertains, with = N

    , p′ ≡ 1 - var(m)/ =

    (1 + cvp2) and n′ ≡ /p′ = N/(1 + cvp2), where m is the output/stimulus and cvp2 is var(p)/

    2. Unless n′ is invariant with ambient conditions or stimulation paradigms, the simple binomial (cvp = 0) is untenable and n′ is neither N nor the number of “active” sites or sites with a quantum available. At each site p = popA, where po is the output probability if a site is “eligible” or “filled” despite previous quantal discharge, and pA (eligibility probability) depends at least on the replenishment rate, po, and interstimulus time. Assuming stochastic replenishment, a simple algorithm allows calculation of the full statistical composition of outputs for any hypothetical combinations of po's and refill rates, for any stimulation paradigm and spontaneous release. A rise in n′ (reduced cvp) tends to occur whenever po varies widely between sites, with a raised stimulation frequency or factors tending to increase po's. Unlike and var(m) at equilibrium, output changes early in trains of stimuli, and covariances, potentially provide information about whether changes in reflect change in or in . Formulae are derived for variance and third moments of postsynaptic responses, which depend on the quantal mix in the signals. A new, easily computed function, the area product, gives noise-unbiased variance of a series of synaptic signals and its peristimulus time distribution, which is modified by the unit channel composition of quantal responses and if the signals reflect mixed responses from synapses with different quantal time course. PMID:9017200

  17. Selecting the right statistical model for analysis of insect count data by using information theoretic measures.

    PubMed

    Sileshi, G

    2006-10-01

    Researchers and regulatory agencies often make statistical inferences from insect count data using modelling approaches that assume homogeneous variance. Such models do not allow for formal appraisal of variability which in its different forms is the subject of interest in ecology. Therefore, the objectives of this paper were to (i) compare models suitable for handling variance heterogeneity and (ii) select optimal models to ensure valid statistical inferences from insect count data. The log-normal, standard Poisson, Poisson corrected for overdispersion, zero-inflated Poisson, the negative binomial distribution and zero-inflated negative binomial models were compared using six count datasets on foliage-dwelling insects and five families of soil-dwelling insects. Akaike's and Schwarz Bayesian information criteria were used for comparing the various models. Over 50% of the counts were zeros even in locally abundant species such as Ootheca bennigseni Weise, Mesoplatys ochroptera Stål and Diaecoderus spp. The Poisson model after correction for overdispersion and the standard negative binomial distribution model provided better description of the probability distribution of seven out of the 11 insects than the log-normal, standard Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial models. It is concluded that excess zeros and variance heterogeneity are common data phenomena in insect counts. If not properly modelled, these properties can invalidate the normal distribution assumptions resulting in biased estimation of ecological effects and jeopardizing the integrity of the scientific inferences. Therefore, it is recommended that statistical models appropriate for handling these data properties be selected using objective criteria to ensure efficient statistical inference.

  18. Covering Resilience: A Recent Development for Binomial Checkpointing

    SciTech Connect

    Walther, Andrea; Narayanan, Sri Hari Krishna

    In terms of computing time, adjoint methods offer a very attractive alternative to compute gradient information, required, e.g., for optimization purposes. However, together with this very favorable temporal complexity result comes a memory requirement that is in essence proportional with the operation count of the underlying function, e.g., if algorithmic differentiation is used to provide the adjoints. For this reason, checkpointing approaches in many variants have become popular. This paper analyzes an extension of the so-called binomial approach to cover also possible failures of the computing systems. Such a measure of precaution is of special interest for massive parallel simulationsmore » and adjoint calculations where the mean time between failure of the large scale computing system is smaller than the time needed to complete the calculation of the adjoint information. We describe the extensions of standard checkpointing approaches required for such resilience, provide a corresponding implementation and discuss first numerical results.« less

  19. Revealing Word Order: Using Serial Position in Binomials to Predict Properties of the Speaker

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iliev, Rumen; Smirnova, Anastasia

    2016-01-01

    Three studies test the link between word order in binomials and psychological and demographic characteristics of a speaker. While linguists have already suggested that psychological, cultural and societal factors are important in choosing word order in binomials, the vast majority of relevant research was focused on general factors and on broadly…

  20. A Three-Parameter Generalisation of the Beta-Binomial Distribution with Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-07-01

    York. Rust, R.T. and Klompmaker, J.E. (1981). Improving the estimation procedure for the beta binomial t.v. exposure model. Journal of Marketing ... Research . 18, 442-448. Sabavala, D.J. and Morrison, D.G. (1977). Television show loyalty: a beta- binomial model using recall data. Journal of Advertiuing

  1. Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

  2. A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Xavier A

    2015-01-01

    Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels), I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data

  3. Are Negative Peer Influences Domain Specific? Examining the Influence of Peers and Parents on Externalizing and Drug Use Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Cox, Ronald B; Criss, Michael M; Harrist, Amanda W; Zapata-Roblyer, Martha

    2017-10-01

    Most studies tend to characterize peer influences as either positive or negative. In a sample of 1815 youth from 14 different schools in Caracas, Venezuela, we explored how two types of peer affiliations (i.e., deviant and drug-using peers) differentially mediated the paths from positive parenting to youth's externalizing behavior and licit and illicit drug use. We used Zero Inflated Poisson models to test the probability of use and the extent of use during the past 12 months. Results suggested that peer influences are domain specific among Venezuelan youth. That is, deviant peer affiliations mediated the path from positive parenting to youth externalizing behaviors, and peer drug-using affiliations mediated the paths to the drug use outcomes. Mediation effects were partial, suggesting that parenting explained unique variance in the outcomes after accounting for both peer variables, gender, and age. We discuss implications for the development of screening tools and for prevention interventions targeting adolescents from different cultures.

  4. Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data.

    PubMed

    Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A; Coull, Brent A

    2016-10-01

    Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias.

  5. Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data

    PubMed Central

    Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J. Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A.; Coull, Brent A.

    2015-01-01

    Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias. PMID:27867423

  6. Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

    2018-01-01

    When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach, and has several attractive features compared to the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, since the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. PMID:26303591

  7. Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

    2016-01-15

    When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach and has several attractive features compared with the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, because the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. On the p, q-binomial distribution and the Ising model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundow, P. H.; Rosengren, A.

    2010-08-01

    We employ p, q-binomial coefficients, a generalisation of the binomial coefficients, to describe the magnetisation distributions of the Ising model. For the complete graph this distribution corresponds exactly to the limit case p = q. We apply our investigation to the simple d-dimensional lattices for d = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and fit p, q-binomial distributions to our data, some of which are exact but most are sampled. For d = 1 and d = 5, the magnetisation distributions are remarkably well-fitted by p,q-binomial distributions. For d = 4 we are only slightly less successful, while for d = 2, 3 we see some deviations (with exceptions!) between the p, q-binomial and the Ising distribution. However, at certain temperatures near T c the statistical moments of the fitted distribution agree with the moments of the sampled data within the precision of sampling. We begin the paper by giving results of the behaviour of the p, q-distribution and its moment growth exponents given a certain parameterisation of p, q. Since the moment exponents are known for the Ising model (or at least approximately for d = 3) we can predict how p, q should behave and compare this to our measured p, q. The results speak in favour of the p, q-binomial distribution's correctness regarding its general behaviour in comparison to the Ising model. The full extent to which they correctly model the Ising distribution, however, is not settled.

  9. [Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

    PubMed

    Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

    2017-03-10

    To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

  10. A comparison of different statistical methods analyzing hypoglycemia data using bootstrap simulations.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Honghua; Ni, Xiao; Huster, William; Heilmann, Cory

    2015-01-01

    Hypoglycemia has long been recognized as a major barrier to achieving normoglycemia with intensive diabetic therapies. It is a common safety concern for the diabetes patients. Therefore, it is important to apply appropriate statistical methods when analyzing hypoglycemia data. Here, we carried out bootstrap simulations to investigate the performance of the four commonly used statistical models (Poisson, negative binomial, analysis of covariance [ANCOVA], and rank ANCOVA) based on the data from a diabetes clinical trial. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model were also evaluated. Simulation results showed that Poisson model inflated type I error, while negative binomial model was overly conservative. However, after adjusting for dispersion, both Poisson and negative binomial models yielded slightly inflated type I errors, which were close to the nominal level and reasonable power. Reasonable control of type I error was associated with ANCOVA model. Rank ANCOVA model was associated with the greatest power and with reasonable control of type I error. Inflated type I error was observed with ZIP and ZINB models.

  11. Comparing statistical methods for analyzing skewed longitudinal count data with many zeros: an example of smoking cessation.

    PubMed

    Xie, Haiyi; Tao, Jill; McHugo, Gregory J; Drake, Robert E

    2013-07-01

    Count data with skewness and many zeros are common in substance abuse and addiction research. Zero-adjusting models, especially zero-inflated models, have become increasingly popular in analyzing this type of data. This paper reviews and compares five mixed-effects Poisson family models commonly used to analyze count data with a high proportion of zeros by analyzing a longitudinal outcome: number of smoking quit attempts from the New Hampshire Dual Disorders Study. The findings of our study indicated that count data with many zeros do not necessarily require zero-inflated or other zero-adjusting models. For rare event counts or count data with small means, a simpler model such as the negative binomial model may provide a better fit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

    SciTech Connect

    Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.

    Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authorsmore » of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]« less

  13. Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials.

    PubMed

    Postler, Thomas S; Clawson, Anna N; Amarasinghe, Gaya K; Basler, Christopher F; Bavari, Sbina; Benko, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S; Collins, Peter L; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L; Dietzgen, Ralf G; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M; Easton, Andrew J; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A M; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A; Leroy, Eric M; Lukashevich, Igor S; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R; Netesov, Sergey V; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L; Payne, Susan L; PaWeska, Janusz T; Peters, Clarence J; Radoshitzky, Sheli R; Rima, Bertus K; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J; Stenglein, Mark D; Stone, David M; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E; Zerbini, F Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H

    2017-05-01

    Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Society of Systematic Biologists 2016. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

  14. Frequency distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis and other helminths of foxes in Kyrgyzstan

    PubMed Central

    I., Ziadinov; P., Deplazes; A., Mathis; B., Mutunova; K., Abdykerimov; R., Nurgaziev; P.R, Torgerson

    2010-01-01

    Echinococcosis is a major emerging zoonosis in central Asia. A study of the helminth fauna of foxes from Naryn Oblast in central Kyrgyzstan was undertaken to investigate the abundance of Echinococcus multilocularis in a district where a high prevalence of this parasite had previously been detected in dogs. A total of 151 foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were investigated in a necropsy study. Of these 96 (64%) were infected with E. multilocularis with a mean abundance of 8669 parasites per fox. This indicates that red foxes are a major definitive host of E. multilocularis in this country. This also demonstrates that the abundance and prevalence of E. multilocularis in the natural definitive host are likely to be high in geographical regions where there is a concomitant high prevalence in alternative definitive hosts such as dogs. In addition Mesocestoides spp., Dipylidium caninum, Taenia spp., Toxocara canis, Toxascaris leonina, Capillaria and Acanthocephala spp. were found in 99 (66%), 50 (33%), 48 (32%), 46 (30%), 9 (6%), 34 (23%) and 2 (1%) of foxes, respectively. The prevalence but not the abundance of E. multilocularis decreased with age. The abundance of Dipylidium caninum also decreased with age. The frequency distribution of E. multilocularis and Mesocestoides spp. followed a zero inflated negative binomial distribution, whilst all other helminths had a negative binomial distribution. This demonstrates that the frequency distribution of positive counts and not just the frequency of zeros in the data set can determine if a zero inflated or non-zero inflated model is more appropriate. This is because the prevalences of E. multolocularis and Mesocestoides spp. were the highest (and hence had fewest zero counts) yet the parasite distribution nevertheless gave a better fit to the zero inflated models. PMID:20434845

  15. On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.

    PubMed

    Aydogmus, Ozgur

    2016-09-01

    We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Using the Binomial Series to Prove the Arithmetic Mean-Geometric Mean Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Persky, Ronald L.

    2003-01-01

    In 1968, Leon Gerber compared (1 + x)[superscript a] to its kth partial sum as a binomial series. His result is stated and, as an application of this result, a proof of the arithmetic mean-geometric mean inequality is presented.

  17. Binomial Coefficients Modulo a Prime--A Visualization Approach to Undergraduate Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bardzell, Michael; Poimenidou, Eirini

    2011-01-01

    In this article we present, as a case study, results of undergraduate research involving binomial coefficients modulo a prime "p." We will discuss how undergraduates were involved in the project, even with a minimal mathematical background beforehand. There are two main avenues of exploration described to discover these binomial…

  18. Enumerative and binomial sampling plans for citrus mealybug (Homoptera: pseudococcidae) in citrus groves.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Ferrer, María Teresa; Ripollés, José Luís; Garcia-Marí, Ferran

    2006-06-01

    The spatial distribution of the citrus mealybug, Planococcus citri (Risso) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae), was studied in citrus groves in northeastern Spain. Constant precision sampling plans were designed for all developmental stages of citrus mealybug under the fruit calyx, for late stages on fruit, and for females on trunks and main branches; more than 66, 286, and 101 data sets, respectively, were collected from nine commercial fields during 1992-1998. Dispersion parameters were determined using Taylor's power law, giving aggregated spatial patterns for citrus mealybug populations in three locations of the tree sampled. A significant relationship between the number of insects per organ and the percentage of occupied organs was established using either Wilson and Room's binomial model or Kono and Sugino's empirical formula. Constant precision (E = 0.25) sampling plans (i.e., enumerative plans) for estimating mean densities were developed using Green's equation and the two binomial models. For making management decisions, enumerative counts may be less labor-intensive than binomial sampling. Therefore, we recommend enumerative sampling plans for the use in an integrated pest management program in citrus. Required sample sizes for the range of population densities near current management thresholds, in the three plant locations calyx, fruit, and trunk were 50, 110-330, and 30, respectively. Binomial sampling, especially the empirical model, required a higher sample size to achieve equivalent levels of precision.

  19. Solar San Diego: The Impact of Binomial Rate Structures on Real PV Systems; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    VanGeet, O.; Brown, E.; Blair, T.

    2008-05-01

    There is confusion in the marketplace regarding the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on the user's actual electricity bill under California Net Energy Metering, particularly with binomial tariffs (those that include both demand and energy charges) and time-of-use (TOU) rate structures. The City of San Diego has extensive real-time electrical metering on most of its buildings and PV systems, with interval data for overall consumption and PV electrical production available for multiple years. This paper uses 2007 PV-system data from two city facilities to illustrate the impacts of binomial rate designs. The analysis will determine the energy and demand savingsmore » that the PV systems are achieving relative to the absence of systems. A financial analysis of PV-system performance under various rate structures is presented. The data revealed that actual demand and energy use benefits of binomial tariffs increase in summer months, when solar resources allow for maximized electricity production. In a binomial tariff system, varying on- and semi-peak times can result in approximately $1,100 change in demand charges per month over not having a PV system in place, an approximate 30% cost savings. The PV systems are also shown to have a 30%-50% reduction in facility energy charges in 2007.« less

  20. Raw and Central Moments of Binomial Random Variables via Stirling Numbers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We consider here the problem of calculating the moments of binomial random variables. It is shown how formulae for both the raw and the central moments of such random variables may be obtained in a recursive manner utilizing Stirling numbers of the first kind. Suggestions are also provided as to how students might be encouraged to explore this…

  1. Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2018-01-01

    Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

  2. Possibility and challenges of conversion of current virus species names to Linnaean binomials

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Postler; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sina; Benko, Maria; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Remi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; De la Torre, Juan Carlos; DeRisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Durrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sebastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balazs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Daohong; Kobinger, Gary P.; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; Paweska, Janusz T.; Peters, C.J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfacon, Helene; Salvato , Maria; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark; Stone, D.M.; Takada , Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, N.; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Victor E.; Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield , Anna E.; Zerbini, Francisco Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

    2017-01-01

    Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment.

  3. Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

    PubMed Central

    Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sbina; Benkő, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiāng, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M.; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R.; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; PaWeska, Janusz T.; Peters, Clarence J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli R.; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S.; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark D.; Stone, David M.; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E.; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E.; Zerbini, F. Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. PMID:27798405

  4. Use of the binomial distribution to predict impairment: application in a nonclinical sample.

    PubMed

    Axelrod, Bradley N; Wall, Jacqueline R; Estes, Bradley W

    2008-01-01

    A mathematical model based on the binomial theory was developed to illustrate when abnormal score variations occur by chance in a multitest battery (Ingraham & Aiken, 1996). It has been successfully used as a comparison for obtained test scores in clinical samples, but not in nonclinical samples. In the current study, this model has been applied to demographically corrected scores on the Halstead-Reitan Neuropsychological Test Battery, obtained from a sample of 94 nonclinical college students. Results found that 15% of the sample had impairments suggested by the Halstead Impairment Index, using criteria established by Reitan and Wolfson (1993). In addition, one-half of the sample obtained impaired scores on one or two tests. These results were compared to that predicted by the binomial model and found to be consistent. The model therefore serves as a useful resource for clinicians considering the probability of impaired test performance.

  5. Analysis of railroad tank car releases using a generalized binomial model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiang; Hong, Yili

    2015-11-01

    The United States is experiencing an unprecedented boom in shale oil production, leading to a dramatic growth in petroleum crude oil traffic by rail. In 2014, U.S. railroads carried over 500,000 tank carloads of petroleum crude oil, up from 9500 in 2008 (a 5300% increase). In light of continual growth in crude oil by rail, there is an urgent national need to manage this emerging risk. This need has been underscored in the wake of several recent crude oil release incidents. In contrast to highway transport, which usually involves a tank trailer, a crude oil train can carry a large number of tank cars, having the potential for a large, multiple-tank-car release incident. Previous studies exclusively assumed that railroad tank car releases in the same train accident are mutually independent, thereby estimating the number of tank cars releasing given the total number of tank cars derailed based on a binomial model. This paper specifically accounts for dependent tank car releases within a train accident. We estimate the number of tank cars releasing given the number of tank cars derailed based on a generalized binomial model. The generalized binomial model provides a significantly better description for the empirical tank car accident data through our numerical case study. This research aims to provide a new methodology and new insights regarding the further development of risk management strategies for improving railroad crude oil transportation safety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Solar San Diego: The Impact of Binomial Rate Structures on Real PV-Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Van Geet, O.; Brown, E.; Blair, T.

    2008-01-01

    There is confusion in the marketplace regarding the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on the user's actual electricity bill under California Net Energy Metering, particularly with binomial tariffs (those that include both demand and energy charges) and time-of-use (TOU) rate structures. The City of San Diego has extensive real-time electrical metering on most of its buildings and PV systems, with interval data for overall consumption and PV electrical production available for multiple years. This paper uses 2007 PV-system data from two city facilities to illustrate the impacts of binomial rate designs. The analysis will determine the energy and demand savingsmore » that the PV systems are achieving relative to the absence of systems. A financial analysis of PV-system performance under various rates structures is presented. The data revealed that actual demand and energy use benefits of bionomial tariffs increase in summer months, when solar resources allow for maximized electricity production. In a binomial tariff system, varying on- and semi-peak times can result in approximately $1,100 change in demand charges per month over not having a PV system in place, an approximate 30% cost savings. The PV systems are also shown to have a 30%-50% reduction in facility energy charges in 2007. Future work will include combining demand and electricity charges and increasing the breadth of rate structures tested, including the impacts of non-coincident demand charges.« less

  7. Discrimination of numerical proportions: A comparison of binomial and Gaussian models.

    PubMed

    Raidvee, Aire; Lember, Jüri; Allik, Jüri

    2017-01-01

    Observers discriminated the numerical proportion of two sets of elements (N = 9, 13, 33, and 65) that differed either by color or orientation. According to the standard Thurstonian approach, the accuracy of proportion discrimination is determined by irreducible noise in the nervous system that stochastically transforms the number of presented visual elements onto a continuum of psychological states representing numerosity. As an alternative to this customary approach, we propose a Thurstonian-binomial model, which assumes discrete perceptual states, each of which is associated with a certain visual element. It is shown that the probability β with which each visual element can be noticed and registered by the perceptual system can explain data of numerical proportion discrimination at least as well as the continuous Thurstonian-Gaussian model, and better, if the greater parsimony of the Thurstonian-binomial model is taken into account using AIC model selection. We conclude that Gaussian and binomial models represent two different fundamental principles-internal noise vs. using only a fraction of available information-which are both plausible descriptions of visual perception.

  8. Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

    PubMed

    Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

    2008-03-01

    There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

  9. Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S

    2018-03-01

    A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S.

    2018-03-01

    A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band.

  11. Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency and severity of head-on crashes: case studies from Malaysian federal roads.

    PubMed

    Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Sadullah, Ahmad Farhan

    2014-01-01

    Head-on crashes are among the most severe collision types and of great concern to road safety authorities. Therefore, it justifies more efforts to reduce both the frequency and severity of this collision type. To this end, it is necessary to first identify factors associating with the crash occurrence. This can be done by developing crash prediction models that relate crash outcomes to a set of contributing factors. This study intends to identify the factors affecting both the frequency and severity of head-on crashes that occurred on 448 segments of five federal roads in Malaysia. Data on road characteristics and crash history were collected on the study segments during a 4-year period between 2007 and 2010. The frequency of head-on crashes were fitted by developing and comparing seven count-data models including Poisson, standard negative binomial (NB), random-effect negative binomial, hurdle Poisson, hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. To model crash severity, a random-effect generalized ordered probit model (REGOPM) was used given a head-on crash had occurred. With respect to the crash frequency, the random-effect negative binomial (RENB) model was found to outperform the other models according to goodness of fit measures. Based on the results of the model, the variables horizontal curvature, terrain type, heavy-vehicle traffic, and access points were found to be positively related to the frequency of head-on crashes, while posted speed limit and shoulder width decreased the crash frequency. With regard to the crash severity, the results of REGOPM showed that horizontal curvature, paved shoulder width, terrain type, and side friction were associated with more severe crashes, whereas land use, access points, and presence of median reduced the probability of severe crashes. Based on the results of this study, some potential countermeasures were proposed to minimize the risk of head-on crashes. Copyright

  12. Unified Computational Methods for Regression Analysis of Zero-Inflated and Bound-Inflated Data

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yan; Simpson, Douglas

    2010-01-01

    Bounded data with excess observations at the boundary are common in many areas of application. Various individual cases of inflated mixture models have been studied in the literature for bound-inflated data, yet the computational methods have been developed separately for each type of model. In this article we use a common framework for computing these models, and expand the range of models for both discrete and semi-continuous data with point inflation at the lower boundary. The quasi-Newton and EM algorithms are adapted and compared for estimation of model parameters. The numerical Hessian and generalized Louis method are investigated as means for computing standard errors after optimization. Correlated data are included in this framework via generalized estimating equations. The estimation of parameters and effectiveness of standard errors are demonstrated through simulation and in the analysis of data from an ultrasound bioeffect study. The unified approach enables reliable computation for a wide class of inflated mixture models and comparison of competing models. PMID:20228950

  13. Trending in Pc Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Mixed Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallejo, Jonathon; Hejduk, Matthew; Stamey, James

    2015-01-01

    Two satellites predicted to come within close proximity of one another, usually a high-value satellite and a piece of space debris moving the active satellite is a means of reducing collision risk but reduces satellite lifetime, perturbs satellite mission, and introduces its own risks. So important to get a good statement of the risk of collision in order to determine whether a maneuver is truly necessary. Two aspects of this Calculation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) based on the most recent set of position velocity and uncertainty data for both satellites. Examination of the changes in the Pc value as the event develops. Events should follow a canonical development (Pc vs time to closest approach (TCA)). Helpful to be able to guess where the present data point fits in the canonical development in order to guide operational response.

  14. Multiple imputation strategies for zero-inflated cost data in economic evaluations: which method works best?

    PubMed

    MacNeil Vroomen, Janet; Eekhout, Iris; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G; van Hout, Hein; de Rooij, Sophia E; Heymans, Martijn W; Bosmans, Judith E

    2016-11-01

    Cost and effect data often have missing data because economic evaluations are frequently added onto clinical studies where cost data are rarely the primary outcome. The objective of this article was to investigate which multiple imputation strategy is most appropriate to use for missing cost-effectiveness data in a randomized controlled trial. Three incomplete data sets were generated from a complete reference data set with 17, 35 and 50 % missing data in effects and costs. The strategies evaluated included complete case analysis (CCA), multiple imputation with predictive mean matching (MI-PMM), MI-PMM on log-transformed costs (log MI-PMM), and a two-step MI. Mean cost and effect estimates, standard errors and incremental net benefits were compared with the results of the analyses on the complete reference data set. The CCA, MI-PMM, and the two-step MI strategy diverged from the results for the reference data set when the amount of missing data increased. In contrast, the estimates of the Log MI-PMM strategy remained stable irrespective of the amount of missing data. MI provided better estimates than CCA in all scenarios. With low amounts of missing data the MI strategies appeared equivalent but we recommend using the log MI-PMM with missing data greater than 35 %.

  15. A comparison of methods for the analysis of binomial clustered outcomes in behavioral research.

    PubMed

    Ferrari, Alberto; Comelli, Mario

    2016-12-01

    In behavioral research, data consisting of a per-subject proportion of "successes" and "failures" over a finite number of trials often arise. This clustered binary data are usually non-normally distributed, which can distort inference if the usual general linear model is applied and sample size is small. A number of more advanced methods is available, but they are often technically challenging and a comparative assessment of their performances in behavioral setups has not been performed. We studied the performances of some methods applicable to the analysis of proportions; namely linear regression, Poisson regression, beta-binomial regression and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs). We report on a simulation study evaluating power and Type I error rate of these models in hypothetical scenarios met by behavioral researchers; plus, we describe results from the application of these methods on data from real experiments. Our results show that, while GLMMs are powerful instruments for the analysis of clustered binary outcomes, beta-binomial regression can outperform them in a range of scenarios. Linear regression gave results consistent with the nominal level of significance, but was overall less powerful. Poisson regression, instead, mostly led to anticonservative inference. GLMMs and beta-binomial regression are generally more powerful than linear regression; yet linear regression is robust to model misspecification in some conditions, whereas Poisson regression suffers heavily from violations of the assumptions when used to model proportion data. We conclude providing directions to behavioral scientists dealing with clustered binary data and small sample sizes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Partitioning Detectability Components in Populations Subject to Within-Season Temporary Emigration Using Binomial Mixture Models

    PubMed Central

    O’Donnell, Katherine M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

    2015-01-01

    Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that

  17. Metaprop: a Stata command to perform meta-analysis of binomial data.

    PubMed

    Nyaga, Victoria N; Arbyn, Marc; Aerts, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Meta-analyses have become an essential tool in synthesizing evidence on clinical and epidemiological questions derived from a multitude of similar studies assessing the particular issue. Appropriate and accessible statistical software is needed to produce the summary statistic of interest. Metaprop is a statistical program implemented to perform meta-analyses of proportions in Stata. It builds further on the existing Stata procedure metan which is typically used to pool effects (risk ratios, odds ratios, differences of risks or means) but which is also used to pool proportions. Metaprop implements procedures which are specific to binomial data and allows computation of exact binomial and score test-based confidence intervals. It provides appropriate methods for dealing with proportions close to or at the margins where the normal approximation procedures often break down, by use of the binomial distribution to model the within-study variability or by allowing Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation to stabilize the variances. Metaprop was applied on two published meta-analyses: 1) prevalence of HPV-infection in women with a Pap smear showing ASC-US; 2) cure rate after treatment for cervical precancer using cold coagulation. The first meta-analysis showed a pooled HPV-prevalence of 43% (95% CI: 38%-48%). In the second meta-analysis, the pooled percentage of cured women was 94% (95% CI: 86%-97%). By using metaprop, no studies with 0% or 100% proportions were excluded from the meta-analysis. Furthermore, study specific and pooled confidence intervals always were within admissible values, contrary to the original publication, where metan was used.

  18. A binomial stochastic kinetic approach to the Michaelis-Menten mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lente, Gábor

    2013-05-01

    This Letter presents a new method that gives an analytical approximation of the exact solution of the stochastic Michaelis-Menten mechanism without computationally demanding matrix operations. The method is based on solving the deterministic rate equations and then using the results as guiding variables of calculating probability values using binomial distributions. This principle can be generalized to a number of different kinetic schemes and is expected to be very useful in the evaluation of measurements focusing on the catalytic activity of one or a few individual enzyme molecules.

  19. Binomial tree method for pricing a regime-switching volatility stock loans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Putri, Endah R. M.; Zamani, Muhammad S.; Utomo, Daryono B.

    2018-03-01

    Binomial model with regime switching may represents the price of stock loan which follows the stochastic process. Stock loan is one of alternative that appeal investors to get the liquidity without selling the stock. The stock loan mechanism resembles that of American call option when someone can exercise any time during the contract period. From the resembles both of mechanism, determination price of stock loan can be interpreted from the model of American call option. The simulation result shows the behavior of the price of stock loan under a regime-switching with respect to various interest rate and maturity.

  20. Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

    2014-01-01

    Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are

  1. Dental Caries and Enamel Defects in Very Low Birth Weight Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, S.; Albert, J.M.; Lombardi, G.; Wishnek, S.; Asaad, G.; Kirchner, H.L.; Singer, L.T.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of this study was to examine developmental enamel defects and dental caries in very low birth weight adolescents with high risk (HR-VLBW) and low risk (LR-VLBW) compared to full-term (term) adolescents. Methods The sample consisted of 224 subjects (80 HR-VLBW, 59 LR-VLBW, 85 term adolescents) recruited from an ongoing longitudinal study. Sociodemographic and medical information was available from birth. Dental examination of the adolescent at the 14-year visit included: enamel defects (opacity and hypoplasia); decayed, missing, filled teeth of incisors and molars (DMFT-IM) and of overall permanent teeth (DMFT); Simplified Oral Hygiene Index for debris/calculus on teeth, and sealant presence. A caregiver questionnaire completed simultaneously assessed dental behavior, access, insurance status and prevention factors. Hierarchical analysis utilized the zero-inflated negative binomial model and zero-inflated Poisson model. Results The zero-inflated negative binomial model controlling for sociodemographic variables indicated that the LR-VLBW group had an estimated 75% increase (p < 0.05) in number of demarcated opacities in the incisors and first molar teeth compared to the term group. Hierarchical modeling indicated that demarcated opacities were a significant predictor of DMFT-IM after control for relevant covariates. The term adolescents had significantly increased DMFT-IM and DMFT scores compared to the LR-VLBW adolescents. Conclusion LR-VLBW was a significant risk factor for increased enamel defects in the permanent incisors and first molars. Term children had increased caries compared to the LR-VLBW group. The effect of birth group and enamel defects on caries has to be investigated longitudinally from birth. PMID:20975268

  2. A comparison of LMC and SDL complexity measures on binomial distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piqueira, José Roberto C.

    2016-02-01

    The concept of complexity has been widely discussed in the last forty years, with a lot of thinking contributions coming from all areas of the human knowledge, including Philosophy, Linguistics, History, Biology, Physics, Chemistry and many others, with mathematicians trying to give a rigorous view of it. In this sense, thermodynamics meets information theory and, by using the entropy definition, López-Ruiz, Mancini and Calbet proposed a definition for complexity that is referred as LMC measure. Shiner, Davison and Landsberg, by slightly changing the LMC definition, proposed the SDL measure and the both, LMC and SDL, are satisfactory to measure complexity for a lot of problems. Here, SDL and LMC measures are applied to the case of a binomial probability distribution, trying to clarify how the length of the data set implies complexity and how the success probability of the repeated trials determines how complex the whole set is.

  3. Exact tests using two correlated binomial variables in contemporary cancer clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Yu, Jihnhee; Kepner, James L; Iyer, Renuka

    2009-12-01

    New therapy strategies for the treatment of cancer are rapidly emerging because of recent technology advances in genetics and molecular biology. Although newer targeted therapies can improve survival without measurable changes in tumor size, clinical trial conduct has remained nearly unchanged. When potentially efficacious therapies are tested, current clinical trial design and analysis methods may not be suitable for detecting therapeutic effects. We propose an exact method with respect to testing cytostatic cancer treatment using correlated bivariate binomial random variables to simultaneously assess two primary outcomes. The method is easy to implement. It does not increase the sample size over that of the univariate exact test and in most cases reduces the sample size required. Sample size calculations are provided for selected designs.

  4. Temporary disaster debris management site identification using binomial cluster analysis and GIS.

    PubMed

    Grzeda, Stanislaw; Mazzuchi, Thomas A; Sarkani, Shahram

    2014-04-01

    An essential component of disaster planning and preparation is the identification and selection of temporary disaster debris management sites (DMS). However, since DMS identification is a complex process involving numerous variable constraints, many regional, county and municipal jurisdictions initiate this process during the post-disaster response and recovery phases, typically a period of severely stressed resources. Hence, a pre-disaster approach in identifying the most likely sites based on the number of locational constraints would significantly contribute to disaster debris management planning. As disasters vary in their nature, location and extent, an effective approach must facilitate scalability, flexibility and adaptability to variable local requirements, while also being generalisable to other regions and geographical extents. This study demonstrates the use of binomial cluster analysis in potential DMS identification in a case study conducted in Hamilton County, Indiana. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  5. Generalized binomial τ-leap method for biochemical kinetics incorporating both delay and intrinsic noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leier, André; Marquez-Lago, Tatiana T.; Burrage, Kevin

    2008-05-01

    The delay stochastic simulation algorithm (DSSA) by Barrio et al. [Plos Comput. Biol. 2, 117(E) (2006)] was developed to simulate delayed processes in cell biology in the presence of intrinsic noise, that is, when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain key molecules present in a chemical reaction system. These delayed processes can faithfully represent complex interactions and mechanisms that imply a number of spatiotemporal processes often not explicitly modeled such as transcription and translation, basic in the modeling of cell signaling pathways. However, for systems with widely varying reaction rate constants or large numbers of molecules, the simulation time steps of both the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the DSSA can become very small causing considerable computational overheads. In order to overcome the limit of small step sizes, various τ-leap strategies have been suggested for improving computational performance of the SSA. In this paper, we present a binomial τ-DSSA method that extends the τ-leap idea to the delay setting and avoids drawing insufficient numbers of reactions, a common shortcoming of existing binomial τ-leap methods that becomes evident when dealing with complex chemical interactions. The resulting inaccuracies are most evident in the delayed case, even when considering reaction products as potential reactants within the same time step in which they are produced. Moreover, we extend the framework to account for multicellular systems with different degrees of intercellular communication. We apply these ideas to two important genetic regulatory models, namely, the hes1 gene, implicated as a molecular clock, and a Her1/Her 7 model for coupled oscillating cells.

  6. Effectiveness on Early Childhood Caries of an Oral Health Promotion Program for Medical Providers

    PubMed Central

    Widmer-Racich, Katina; Sevick, Carter; Starzyk, Erin J.; Mauritson, Katya; Hambidge, Simon J.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To assess an oral health promotion (OHP) intervention for medical providers’ impact on early childhood caries (ECC). Methods. We implemented a quasiexperimental OHP intervention in 8 federally qualified health centers that trained medical providers on ECC risk assessment, oral examination and instruction, dental referral, and fluoride varnish applications (FVAs). We measured OHP delivery by FVA count at medical visits. We measured the intervention’s impact on ECC in 3 unique cohorts of children aged 3 to 4 years in 2009 (preintervention; n = 202), 2011 (midintervention; n = 420), and 2015 (≥ 4 FVAs; n = 153). We compared numbers of decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces using adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models. Results. Across 3 unique cohorts, the FVA mean (range) count was 0.0 (0), 1.1 (0–7), and 4.5 (4–7) in 2009, 2011, and 2015, respectively. In adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models analyses, children in the 2015 cohort had significantly fewer decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces than did children in previous cohorts. Conclusions. An OHP intervention targeting medical providers reduced ECC when children received 4 or more FVAs at a medical visit by age 3 years. PMID:28661802

  7. Analysis of overdispersed count data: application to the Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men (HIM) Study.

    PubMed

    Lee, J-H; Han, G; Fulp, W J; Giuliano, A R

    2012-06-01

    The Poisson model can be applied to the count of events occurring within a specific time period. The main feature of the Poisson model is the assumption that the mean and variance of the count data are equal. However, this equal mean-variance relationship rarely occurs in observational data. In most cases, the observed variance is larger than the assumed variance, which is called overdispersion. Further, when the observed data involve excessive zero counts, the problem of overdispersion results in underestimating the variance of the estimated parameter, and thus produces a misleading conclusion. We illustrated the use of four models for overdispersed count data that may be attributed to excessive zeros. These are Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models. The example data in this article deal with the number of incidents involving human papillomavirus infection. The four models resulted in differing statistical inferences. The Poisson model, which is widely used in epidemiology research, underestimated the standard errors and overstated the significance of some covariates.

  8. Patterns of medicinal plant use: an examination of the Ecuadorian Shuar medicinal flora using contingency table and binomial analyses.

    PubMed

    Bennett, Bradley C; Husby, Chad E

    2008-03-28

    Botanical pharmacopoeias are non-random subsets of floras, with some taxonomic groups over- or under-represented. Moerman [Moerman, D.E., 1979. Symbols and selectivity: a statistical analysis of Native American medical ethnobotany, Journal of Ethnopharmacology 1, 111-119] introduced linear regression/residual analysis to examine these patterns. However, regression, the commonly-employed analysis, suffers from several statistical flaws. We use contingency table and binomial analyses to examine patterns of Shuar medicinal plant use (from Amazonian Ecuador). We first analyzed the Shuar data using Moerman's approach, modified to better meet requirements of linear regression analysis. Second, we assessed the exact randomization contingency table test for goodness of fit. Third, we developed a binomial model to test for non-random selection of plants in individual families. Modified regression models (which accommodated assumptions of linear regression) reduced R(2) to from 0.59 to 0.38, but did not eliminate all problems associated with regression analyses. Contingency table analyses revealed that the entire flora departs from the null model of equal proportions of medicinal plants in all families. In the binomial analysis, only 10 angiosperm families (of 115) differed significantly from the null model. These 10 families are largely responsible for patterns seen at higher taxonomic levels. Contingency table and binomial analyses offer an easy and statistically valid alternative to the regression approach.

  9. Comparison and Field Validation of Binomial Sampling Plans for Oligonychus perseae (Acari: Tetranychidae) on Hass Avocado in Southern California.

    PubMed

    Lara, Jesus R; Hoddle, Mark S

    2015-08-01

    Oligonychus perseae Tuttle, Baker, & Abatiello is a foliar pest of 'Hass' avocados [Persea americana Miller (Lauraceae)]. The recommended action threshold is 50-100 motile mites per leaf, but this count range and other ecological factors associated with O. perseae infestations limit the application of enumerative sampling plans in the field. Consequently, a comprehensive modeling approach was implemented to compare the practical application of various binomial sampling models for decision-making of O. perseae in California. An initial set of sequential binomial sampling models were developed using three mean-proportion modeling techniques (i.e., Taylor's power law, maximum likelihood, and an empirical model) in combination with two-leaf infestation tally thresholds of either one or two mites. Model performance was evaluated using a robust mite count database consisting of >20,000 Hass avocado leaves infested with varying densities of O. perseae and collected from multiple locations. Operating characteristic and average sample number results for sequential binomial models were used as the basis to develop and validate a standardized fixed-size binomial sampling model with guidelines on sample tree and leaf selection within blocks of avocado trees. This final validated model requires a leaf sampling cost of 30 leaves and takes into account the spatial dynamics of O. perseae to make reliable mite density classifications for a 50-mite action threshold. Recommendations for implementing this fixed-size binomial sampling plan to assess densities of O. perseae in commercial California avocado orchards are discussed. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

    PubMed

    Kéry, Marc

    2018-02-01

    Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  11. Binomial tau-leap spatial stochastic simulation algorithm for applications in chemical kinetics.

    PubMed

    Marquez-Lago, Tatiana T; Burrage, Kevin

    2007-09-14

    In cell biology, cell signaling pathway problems are often tackled with deterministic temporal models, well mixed stochastic simulators, and/or hybrid methods. But, in fact, three dimensional stochastic spatial modeling of reactions happening inside the cell is needed in order to fully understand these cell signaling pathways. This is because noise effects, low molecular concentrations, and spatial heterogeneity can all affect the cellular dynamics. However, there are ways in which important effects can be accounted without going to the extent of using highly resolved spatial simulators (such as single-particle software), hence reducing the overall computation time significantly. We present a new coarse grained modified version of the next subvolume method that allows the user to consider both diffusion and reaction events in relatively long simulation time spans as compared with the original method and other commonly used fully stochastic computational methods. Benchmarking of the simulation algorithm was performed through comparison with the next subvolume method and well mixed models (MATLAB), as well as stochastic particle reaction and transport simulations (CHEMCELL, Sandia National Laboratories). Additionally, we construct a model based on a set of chemical reactions in the epidermal growth factor receptor pathway. For this particular application and a bistable chemical system example, we analyze and outline the advantages of our presented binomial tau-leap spatial stochastic simulation algorithm, in terms of efficiency and accuracy, in scenarios of both molecular homogeneity and heterogeneity.

  12. Design of Ultra-Wideband Tapered Slot Antenna by Using Binomial Transformer with Corrugation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chareonsiri, Yosita; Thaiwirot, Wanwisa; Akkaraekthalin, Prayoot

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, the tapered slot antenna (TSA) with corrugation is proposed for UWB applications. The multi-section binomial transformer is used to design taper profile of the proposed TSA that does not involve using time consuming optimization. A step-by-step procedure for synthesis of the step impedance values related with step slot widths of taper profile is presented. The smooth taper can be achieved by fitting the smoothing curve to the entire step slot. The design of TSA based on this method yields results with a quite flat gain and wide impedance bandwidth covering UWB spectrum from 3.1 GHz to 10.6 GHz. To further improve the radiation characteristics, the corrugation is added on the both edges of the proposed TSA. The effects of different corrugation shapes on the improvement of antenna gain and front-to-back ratio (F-to-B ratio) are investigated. To demonstrate the validity of the design, the prototypes of TSA without and with corrugation are fabricated and measured. The results show good agreement between simulation and measurement.

  13. The binomial work-health in the transit of Curitiba city.

    PubMed

    Tokars, Eunice; Moro, Antonio Renato Pereira; Cruz, Roberto Moraes

    2012-01-01

    The working activity in traffic of the big cities complex interacts with the environment is often in unsafe and unhealthy imbalance favoring the binomial work - health. The aim of this paper was to analyze the relationship between work and health of taxi drivers in Curitiba, Brazil. This cross-sectional observational study with 206 individuals used a questionnaire on the organization's profile and perception of the environment and direct observation of work. It was found that the majority are male, aged between 26 and 49 years and has a high school degree. They are sedentary, like making a journey from 8 to 12 hours. They consider a stressful profession, related low back pain and are concerned about safety and accidents. 40% are smokers and consume alcoholic drink and 65% do not have or do not use devices of comfort. Risk factors present in the daily taxi constraints cause physical, cognitive and organizational and can affect your performance. It is concluded that the taxi drivers must change the unhealthy lifestyle, requiring a more efficient management of government authorities for this work is healthy and safe for all involved.

  14. Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2011-01-01

    The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

  15. Negative Leadership

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    others and their self-image as a leader (yellow light type of leader). “Toxic” leaders were described as being maladjusted , malcontent, and often...negative or toxic leadership (assuming they are using the correct definition), or do they, based on the social environment they grew up in, feel

  16. Negative Certainty

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ariso, José María

    2017-01-01

    The definitions of "negative knowledge" and the studies in this regard published to date have not considered the categorial distinction Wittgenstein established between knowledge and certainty. Hence, the important role that certainty, despite its omission, should have in these definitions and studies has not yet been shown. In this…

  17. Enumerative and binomial sequential sampling plans for the multicolored Asian lady beetle (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) in wine grapes.

    PubMed

    Galvan, T L; Burkness, E C; Hutchison, W D

    2007-06-01

    To develop a practical integrated pest management (IPM) system for the multicolored Asian lady beetle, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), in wine grapes, we assessed the spatial distribution of H. axyridis and developed eight sampling plans to estimate adult density or infestation level in grape clusters. We used 49 data sets collected from commercial vineyards in 2004 and 2005, in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Enumerative plans were developed using two precision levels (0.10 and 0.25); the six binomial plans reflected six unique action thresholds (3, 7, 12, 18, 22, and 31% of cluster samples infested with at least one H. axyridis). The spatial distribution of H. axyridis in wine grapes was aggregated, independent of cultivar and year, but it was more randomly distributed as mean density declined. The average sample number (ASN) for each sampling plan was determined using resampling software. For research purposes, an enumerative plan with a precision level of 0.10 (SE/X) resulted in a mean ASN of 546 clusters. For IPM applications, the enumerative plan with a precision level of 0.25 resulted in a mean ASN of 180 clusters. In contrast, the binomial plans resulted in much lower ASNs and provided high probabilities of arriving at correct "treat or no-treat" decisions, making these plans more efficient for IPM applications. For a tally threshold of one adult per cluster, the operating characteristic curves for the six action thresholds provided binomial sequential sampling plans with mean ASNs of only 19-26 clusters, and probabilities of making correct decisions between 83 and 96%. The benefits of the binomial sampling plans are discussed within the context of improving IPM programs for wine grapes.

  18. A modified chain binomial model to analyse the ongoing measles epidemic in Greece, July 2017 to February 2018

    PubMed Central

    Lytras, Theodore; Georgakopoulou, Theano; Tsiodras, Sotirios

    2018-01-01

    Greece is currently experiencing a large measles outbreak, in the context of multiple similar outbreaks across Europe. We devised and applied a modified chain-binomial epidemic model, requiring very simple data, to estimate the transmission parameters of this outbreak. Model results indicate sustained measles transmission among the Greek Roma population, necessitating a targeted mass vaccination campaign to halt further spread of the epidemic. Our model may be useful for other countries facing similar measles outbreaks. PMID:29717695

  19. A modified chain binomial model to analyse the ongoing measles epidemic in Greece, July 2017 to February 2018.

    PubMed

    Lytras, Theodore; Georgakopoulou, Theano; Tsiodras, Sotirios

    2018-04-01

    Greece is currently experiencing a large measles outbreak, in the context of multiple similar outbreaks across Europe. We devised and applied a modified chain-binomial epidemic model, requiring very simple data, to estimate the transmission parameters of this outbreak. Model results indicate sustained measles transmission among the Greek Roma population, necessitating a targeted mass vaccination campaign to halt further spread of the epidemic. Our model may be useful for other countries facing similar measles outbreaks.

  20. A binomial modeling approach for upscaling colloid transport under unfavorable conditions: Emergent prediction of extended tailing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilpert, Markus; Rasmuson, Anna; Johnson, William P.

    2017-07-01

    Colloid transport in saturated porous media is significantly influenced by colloidal interactions with grain surfaces. Near-surface fluid domain colloids experience relatively low fluid drag and relatively strong colloidal forces that slow their downgradient translation relative to colloids in bulk fluid. Near-surface fluid domain colloids may reenter into the bulk fluid via diffusion (nanoparticles) or expulsion at rear flow stagnation zones, they may immobilize (attach) via primary minimum interactions, or they may move along a grain-to-grain contact to the near-surface fluid domain of an adjacent grain. We introduce a simple model that accounts for all possible permutations of mass transfer within a dual pore and grain network. The primary phenomena thereby represented in the model are mass transfer of colloids between the bulk and near-surface fluid domains and immobilization. Colloid movement is described by a Markov chain, i.e., a sequence of trials in a 1-D network of unit cells, which contain a pore and a grain. Using combinatorial analysis, which utilizes the binomial coefficient, we derive the residence time distribution, i.e., an inventory of the discrete colloid travel times through the network and of their probabilities to occur. To parameterize the network model, we performed mechanistic pore-scale simulations in a single unit cell that determined the likelihoods and timescales associated with the above colloid mass transfer processes. We found that intergrain transport of colloids in the near-surface fluid domain can cause extended tailing, which has traditionally been attributed to hydrodynamic dispersion emanating from flow tortuosity of solute trajectories.

  1. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test: An efficient alternative to exact binomial testing for Clean Water Act 303(d) evaluation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Connie; Gribble, Matthew O; Bartroff, Jay; Bay, Steven M; Goldstein, Larry

    2017-05-01

    The United States's Clean Water Act stipulates in section 303(d) that states must identify impaired water bodies for which total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) of pollution inputs into water bodies are developed. Decision-making procedures about how to list, or delist, water bodies as impaired, or not, per Clean Water Act 303(d) differ across states. In states such as California, whether or not a particular monitoring sample suggests that water quality is impaired can be regarded as a binary outcome variable, and California's current regulatory framework invokes a version of the exact binomial test to consolidate evidence across samples and assess whether the overall water body complies with the Clean Water Act. Here, we contrast the performance of California's exact binomial test with one potential alternative, the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT). The SPRT uses a sequential testing framework, testing samples as they become available and evaluating evidence as it emerges, rather than measuring all the samples and calculating a test statistic at the end of the data collection process. Through simulations and theoretical derivations, we demonstrate that the SPRT on average requires fewer samples to be measured to have comparable Type I and Type II error rates as the current fixed-sample binomial test. Policymakers might consider efficient alternatives such as SPRT to current procedure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A quantile count model of water depth constraints on Cape Sable seaside sparrows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cade, B.S.; Dong, Q.

    2008-01-01

    1. A quantile regression model for counts of breeding Cape Sable seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis (L.) as a function of water depth and previous year abundance was developed based on extensive surveys, 1992-2005, in the Florida Everglades. The quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, providing a flexible alternative to discrete parametric distributional models, e.g. Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts. 2. Estimates from our multiplicative model demonstrated that negative effects of increasing water depth in breeding habitat on sparrow numbers were dependent on recent occupation history. Upper 10th percentiles of counts (one to three sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth from 0 to 30 cm when sites were not occupied in previous years. However, upper 40th percentiles of counts (one to six sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth for sites occupied in previous years. 3. Greatest decreases (-50% to -83%) in upper quantiles of sparrow counts occurred as water depths increased from 0 to 15 cm when previous year counts were 1, but a small proportion of sites (5-10%) held at least one sparrow even as water depths increased to 20 or 30 cm. 4. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model provided estimates of conditional means that also decreased with increasing water depth but rates of change were lower and decreased with increasing previous year counts compared to the quantile count model. Quantiles computed for the zero-inflated Poisson model enhanced interpretation of this model but had greater lack-of-fit for water depths > 0 cm and previous year counts 1, conditions where the negative effect of water depths were readily apparent and fitted better with the quantile count model.

  3. Some considerations for excess zeroes in substance abuse research.

    PubMed

    Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; DeSantis, Stacia M; Korte, Jeffrey E; Brady, Kathleen T

    2011-09-01

    Count data collected in substance abuse research often come with an excess of "zeroes," which are typically handled using zero-inflated regression models. However, there is a need to consider the design aspects of those studies before using such a statistical model to ascertain the sources of zeroes. We sought to illustrate hurdle models as alternatives to zero-inflated models to validate a two-stage decision-making process in situations of "excess zeroes." We use data from a study of 45 cocaine-dependent subjects where the primary scientific question was to evaluate whether study participation influences drug-seeking behavior. The outcome, "the frequency (count) of cocaine use days per week," is bounded (ranging from 0 to 7). We fit and compare binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, and the hurdle version of these models to study the effect of gender, age, time, and study participation on cocaine use. The hurdle binomial model provides the best fit. Gender and time are not predictive of use. Higher odds of use versus no use are associated with age; however once use is experienced, odds of further use decrease with increase in age. Participation was associated with higher odds of no-cocaine use; once there is use, participation reduced the odds of further use. Age and study participation are significantly predictive of cocaine-use behavior. The two-stage decision process as modeled by a hurdle binomial model (appropriate for bounded count data with excess zeroes) provides interesting insights into the study of covariate effects on count responses of substance use, when all enrolled subjects are believed to be "at-risk" of use.

  4. Operating characteristics of full count and binomial sampling plans for green peach aphid (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in potato.

    PubMed

    Kabaluk, J Todd; Binns, Michael R; Vernon, Robert S

    2006-06-01

    Counts of green peach aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), in potato, Solanum tuberosum L., fields were used to evaluate the performance of the sampling plan from a pest management company. The counts were further used to develop a binomial sampling method, and both full count and binomial plans were evaluated using operating characteristic curves. Taylor's power law provided a good fit of the data (r2 = 0.95), with the relationship between the variance (s2) and mean (m) as ln(s2) = 1.81(+/- 0.02) + 1.55(+/- 0.01) ln(m). A binomial sampling method was developed using the empirical model ln(m) = c + dln(-ln(1 - P(T))), to which the data fit well for tally numbers (T) of 0, 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10. Although T = 3 was considered the most reasonable given its operating characteristics and presumed ease of classification above or below critical densities (i.e., action thresholds) of one and 10 M. persicae per leaf, the full count method is shown to be superior. The mean number of sample sites per field visit by the pest management company was 42 +/- 19, with more than one-half (54%) of the field visits involving sampling 31-50 sample sites, which was acceptable in the context of operating characteristic curves for a critical density of 10 M. persicae per leaf. Based on operating characteristics, actual sample sizes used by the pest management company can be reduced by at least 50%, on average, for a critical density of 10 M. persicae per leaf. For a critical density of one M. persicae per leaf used to avert the spread of potato leaf roll virus, sample sizes from 50 to 100 were considered more suitable.

  5. Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

  6. Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

    2014-06-26

    To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

  7. A new approach for handling longitudinal count data with zero-inflation and overdispersion: poisson geometric process model.

    PubMed

    Wan, Wai-Yin; Chan, Jennifer S K

    2009-08-01

    For time series of count data, correlated measurements, clustering as well as excessive zeros occur simultaneously in biomedical applications. Ignoring such effects might contribute to misleading treatment outcomes. A generalized mixture Poisson geometric process (GMPGP) model and a zero-altered mixture Poisson geometric process (ZMPGP) model are developed from the geometric process model, which was originally developed for modelling positive continuous data and was extended to handle count data. These models are motivated by evaluating the trend development of new tumour counts for bladder cancer patients as well as by identifying useful covariates which affect the count level. The models are implemented using Bayesian method with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and are assessed using deviance information criterion (DIC).

  8. Referent group proximity, social norms, and context: alcohol use in a low-use environment.

    PubMed

    Cox, Jared M; Bates, Scott C

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between perceived normative use of alcohol and reported consumption in an environment where relatively little alcohol use occurs. A total of 585 undergraduate students completed an online survey on alcohol use in March 2006. Participants reported personal alcohol use and perceptions of use by "friends," "the average student," and "the average student who drinks." Due to the large number of students reporting zero alcohol use, zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to analyze the data. Results showed that perceptions of use and beliefs about the acceptability of use by proximal groups were strongly and positively correlated with personal alcohol use. Perceptions of distal groups were either not correlated or were correlated negatively with personal use. These findings suggest that the use of distal referent groups for a social norms campaign in a low-use environment may have paradoxical effects.

  9. Negative Binomial Fits to Multiplicity Distributions from Central Collisions of (16)O+Cu at 14.6A GeV/c and Intermittency

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tannenbaum, M. J.

    1994-01-01

    The concept of "Intermittency" was introduced by Bialas and Peschanski to try to explain the "large" fluctuations of multiplicity in restricted intervals of rapidity or pseudorapidity. A formalism was proposed to to study non-statistical (more precisely, non-Poisson) fluctuations as a function of the size of rapidity interval, and it was further suggested that the "spikes" in the rapidity fluctuations were evidence of fractal or intermittent behavior, in analogy to turbulence in fluid dynamics which is characterized by self-similar fluctuations at all scales-the absence of well defined scale of length.

  10. A Note on a Family of Alternating Sums of Products of Binomial Numbers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gauthier, N.

    2013-01-01

    We study the following family of integral-valued alternating sums, where -infinity equal to or less than m equal to or less than infinity and n equal to or greater than 0 are integers [equation omitted]. We first consider h[subscript m](n) for m and n non-negative integers and show that it is of the form 2[superscript n + 2m] - P[subscript m](n),…

  11. Solving the problem of negative populations in approximate accelerated stochastic simulations using the representative reaction approach.

    PubMed

    Kadam, Shantanu; Vanka, Kumar

    2013-02-15

    Methods based on the stochastic formulation of chemical kinetics have the potential to accurately reproduce the dynamical behavior of various biochemical systems of interest. However, the computational expense makes them impractical for the study of real systems. Attempts to render these methods practical have led to the development of accelerated methods, where the reaction numbers are modeled by Poisson random numbers. However, for certain systems, such methods give rise to physically unrealistic negative numbers for species populations. The methods which make use of binomial variables, in place of Poisson random numbers, have since become popular, and have been partially successful in addressing this problem. In this manuscript, the development of two new computational methods, based on the representative reaction approach (RRA), has been discussed. The new methods endeavor to solve the problem of negative numbers, by making use of tools like the stochastic simulation algorithm and the binomial method, in conjunction with the RRA. It is found that these newly developed methods perform better than other binomial methods used for stochastic simulations, in resolving the problem of negative populations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Coronary artery calcium distributions in older persons in the AGES-Reykjavik study

    PubMed Central

    Gudmundsson, Elias Freyr; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur; Launer, Lenore J.; Harris, Tamara B.; Aspelund, Thor

    2013-01-01

    Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) is a sign of advanced atherosclerosis and an independent risk factor for cardiac events. Here, we describe CAC-distributions in an unselected aged population and compare modelling methods to characterize CAC-distribution. CAC is difficult to model because it has a skewed and zero inflated distribution with over-dispersion. Data are from the AGES-Reykjavik sample, a large population based study [2002-2006] in Iceland of 5,764 persons aged 66-96 years. Linear regressions using logarithmic- and Box-Cox transformations on CAC+1, quantile regression and a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZINB) were applied. Methods were compared visually and with the PRESS-statistic, R2 and number of detected associations with concurrently measured variables. There were pronounced differences in CAC according to sex, age, history of coronary events and presence of plaque in the carotid artery. Associations with conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors varied between the sexes. The ZINB model provided the best results with respect to the PRESS-statistic, R2, and predicted proportion of zero scores. The ZINB model detected similar numbers of associations as the linear regression on ln(CAC+1) and usually with the same risk factors. PMID:22990371

  13. Evaluation of the Use of Zero-Augmented Regression Techniques to Model Incidence of Campylobacter Infections in FoodNet.

    PubMed

    Tremblay, Marlène; Crim, Stacy M; Cole, Dana J; Hoekstra, Robert M; Henao, Olga L; Döpfer, Dörte

    2017-10-01

    The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) is currently using a negative binomial (NB) regression model to estimate temporal changes in the incidence of Campylobacter infection. FoodNet active surveillance in 483 counties collected data on 40,212 Campylobacter cases between years 2004 and 2011. We explored models that disaggregated these data to allow us to account for demographic, geographic, and seasonal factors when examining changes in incidence of Campylobacter infection. We hypothesized that modeling structural zeros and including demographic variables would increase the fit of FoodNet's Campylobacter incidence regression models. Five different models were compared: NB without demographic covariates, NB with demographic covariates, hurdle NB with covariates in the count component only, hurdle NB with covariates in both zero and count components, and zero-inflated NB with covariates in the count component only. Of the models evaluated, the nonzero-augmented NB model with demographic variables provided the best fit. Results suggest that even though zero inflation was not present at this level, individualizing the level of aggregation and using different model structures and predictors per site might be required to correctly distinguish between structural and observational zeros and account for risk factors that vary geographically.

  14. Is “Hit and Run” a Single Word? The Processing of Irreversible Binomials in Neglect Dyslexia

    PubMed Central

    Arcara, Giorgio; Lacaita, Graziano; Mattaloni, Elisa; Passarini, Laura; Mondini, Sara; Benincà, Paola; Semenza, Carlo

    2012-01-01

    The present study is the first neuropsychological investigation into the problem of the mental representation and processing of irreversible binomials (IBs), i.e., word pairs linked by a conjunction (e.g., “hit and run,” “dead or alive”). In order to test their lexical status, the phenomenon of neglect dyslexia is explored. People with left-sided neglect dyslexia show a clear lexical effect: they can read IBs better (i.e., by dropping the leftmost words less frequently) when their components are presented in their correct order. This may be taken as an indication that they treat these constructions as lexical, not decomposable, elements. This finding therefore constitutes strong evidence that IBs tend to be stored in the mental lexicon as a whole and that this whole form is preferably addressed in the retrieval process. PMID:22347199

  15. Type I error probability spending for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance with binomial data.

    PubMed

    Silva, Ivair R

    2018-01-15

    Type I error probability spending functions are commonly used for designing sequential analysis of binomial data in clinical trials, but it is also quickly emerging for near-continuous sequential analysis of post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. It is well known that, for clinical trials, when the null hypothesis is not rejected, it is still important to minimize the sample size. Unlike in post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance, that is not important. In post-market safety surveillance, specially when the surveillance involves identification of potential signals, the meaningful statistical performance measure to be minimized is the expected sample size when the null hypothesis is rejected. The present paper shows that, instead of the convex Type I error spending shape conventionally used in clinical trials, a concave shape is more indicated for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. This is shown for both, continuous and group sequential analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. WHAMII - An enumeration and insertion procedure with binomial bounds for the stochastic time-constrained traveling salesman problem

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dahl, Roy W.; Keating, Karen; Salamone, Daryl J.; Levy, Laurence; Nag, Barindra; Sanborn, Joan A.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents an algorithm (WHAMII) designed to solve the Artificial Intelligence Design Challenge at the 1987 AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference. The problem under consideration is a stochastic generalization of the traveling salesman problem in which travel costs can incur a penalty with a given probability. The variability in travel costs leads to a probability constraint with respect to violating the budget allocation. Given the small size of the problem (eleven cities), an approach is considered that combines partial tour enumeration with a heuristic city insertion procedure. For computational efficiency during both the enumeration and insertion procedures, precalculated binomial probabilities are used to determine an upper bound on the actual probability of violating the budget constraint for each tour. The actual probability is calculated for the final best tour, and additional insertions are attempted until the actual probability exceeds the bound.

  17. How conservative is Fisher's exact test? A quantitative evaluation of the two-sample comparative binomial trial.

    PubMed

    Crans, Gerald G; Shuster, Jonathan J

    2008-08-15

    The debate as to which statistical methodology is most appropriate for the analysis of the two-sample comparative binomial trial has persisted for decades. Practitioners who favor the conditional methods of Fisher, Fisher's exact test (FET), claim that only experimental outcomes containing the same amount of information should be considered when performing analyses. Hence, the total number of successes should be fixed at its observed level in hypothetical repetitions of the experiment. Using conditional methods in clinical settings can pose interpretation difficulties, since results are derived using conditional sample spaces rather than the set of all possible outcomes. Perhaps more importantly from a clinical trial design perspective, this test can be too conservative, resulting in greater resource requirements and more subjects exposed to an experimental treatment. The actual significance level attained by FET (the size of the test) has not been reported in the statistical literature. Berger (J. R. Statist. Soc. D (The Statistician) 2001; 50:79-85) proposed assessing the conservativeness of conditional methods using p-value confidence intervals. In this paper we develop a numerical algorithm that calculates the size of FET for sample sizes, n, up to 125 per group at the two-sided significance level, alpha = 0.05. Additionally, this numerical method is used to define new significance levels alpha(*) = alpha+epsilon, where epsilon is a small positive number, for each n, such that the size of the test is as close as possible to the pre-specified alpha (0.05 for the current work) without exceeding it. Lastly, a sample size and power calculation example are presented, which demonstrates the statistical advantages of implementing the adjustment to FET (using alpha(*) instead of alpha) in the two-sample comparative binomial trial. 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

  18. Orchestrating Semiotic Leaps from Tacit to Cultural Quantitative Reasoning--The Case of Anticipating Experimental Outcomes of a Quasi-Binomial Random Generator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abrahamson, Dor

    2009-01-01

    This article reports on a case study from a design-based research project that investigated how students make sense of the disciplinary tools they are taught to use, and specifically, what personal, interpersonal, and material resources support this process. The probability topic of binomial distribution was selected due to robust documentation of…

  19. Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults.

    PubMed

    Conroy, David E; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L; Rebar, Amanda L

    Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development.

  20. Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults

    PubMed Central

    Conroy, David E.; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L.; Rebar, Amanda L.

    2015-01-01

    Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development. PMID:25859164

  1. DEsingle for detecting three types of differential expression in single-cell RNA-seq data.

    PubMed

    Miao, Zhun; Deng, Ke; Wang, Xiaowo; Zhang, Xuegong

    2018-04-24

    The excessive amount of zeros in single-cell RNA-seq data include "real" zeros due to the on-off nature of gene transcription in single cells and "dropout" zeros due to technical reasons. Existing differential expression (DE) analysis methods cannot distinguish these two types of zeros. We developed an R package DEsingle which employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model to estimate the proportion of real and dropout zeros and to define and detect 3 types of DE genes in single-cell RNA-seq data with higher accuracy. The R package DEsingle is freely available at https://github.com/miaozhun/DEsingle and is under Bioconductor's consideration now. zhangxg@tsinghua.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  2. Mental Health Symptoms Among Student Service Members/Veterans and Civilian College Students.

    PubMed

    Cleveland, Sandi D; Branscum, Adam J; Bovbjerg, Viktor E; Thorburn, Sheryl

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate if and to what extent student service members/veterans differ from civilian college students in the prevalence of self-reported symptoms of poor mental health. The Fall 2011 implementation of the American College Health Association-National College Health Assessment included 27,774 respondents from 44 colleges and universities. Participants were matched using propensity scores, and the prevalence of symptoms was compared using logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The odds of feeling overwhelmed in the last 12 months were significantly lower among student service members/veterans with a history of hazardous duty (odd ratio [OR] = 0.46, adjusted p value <.05) compared with civilian students. Military service, with and without hazardous duty deployment, was not a significant predictor of the total number of symptoms of poor mental health. Current student service members/veterans may not be disproportionately affected by poor psychological functioning.

  3. Statistical procedures for analyzing mental health services data.

    PubMed

    Elhai, Jon D; Calhoun, Patrick S; Ford, Julian D

    2008-08-15

    In mental health services research, analyzing service utilization data often poses serious problems, given the presence of substantially skewed data distributions. This article presents a non-technical introduction to statistical methods specifically designed to handle the complexly distributed datasets that represent mental health service use, including Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated, and zero-truncated regression models. A flowchart is provided to assist the investigator in selecting the most appropriate method. Finally, a dataset of mental health service use reported by medical patients is described, and a comparison of results across several different statistical methods is presented. Implications of matching data analytic techniques appropriately with the often complexly distributed datasets of mental health services utilization variables are discussed.

  4. Factors associated with the frequency of monitoring of liver enzymes, renal function and lipid laboratory markers among individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy: a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Gillis, Jennifer; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Burchell, Ann N; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina B; Loutfy, Mona; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio Sg; Tsoukas, Chris; Hogg, Robert S; Raboud, Janet

    2015-10-26

    As the average age of the HIV-positive population increases, there is increasing need to monitor patients for the development of comorbidities as well as for drug toxicities. We examined factors associated with the frequency of measurement of liver enzymes, renal function tests, and lipid levels among participants of the Canadian Observational Cohort (CANOC) collaboration which follows people who initiated HIV antiretroviral therapy in 2000 or later. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine the associations of demographic and clinical characteristics with the rates of measurement during follow-up. Generalized estimating equations with a logit link were used to examine factors associated with gaps of 12 months or more between measurements. Electronic laboratory data were available for 3940 of 7718 CANOC participants. The median duration of electronic follow-up was 3.5 years. The median (interquartile) rates of tests per year were 2.76 (1.60, 3.73), 2.55 (1.44, 3.38) and 1.42 (0.50, 2.52) for liver, renal and lipid parameters, respectively. In multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, individuals infected through injection drug use (IDU) were significantly less likely to have any measurements. Among participants with at least one measurement, rates of measurement of liver, renal and lipid tests were significantly lower for younger individuals and Aboriginal Peoples. Hepatitis C co-infected individuals with a history of IDU had lower rates of measurement and were at greater risk of having 12 month gaps between measurements. Hepatitis C co-infected participants infected through IDU were at increased risk of gaps in testing, despite publicly funded health care and increased risk of comorbid conditions. This should be taken into consideration in analyses examining factors associated with outcomes based on laboratory parameters.

  5. Density of wild prey modulates lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep.

    PubMed

    Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B; Linnell, John D C

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore-livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed.

  6. Density of Wild Prey Modulates Lynx Kill Rates on Free-Ranging Domestic Sheep

    PubMed Central

    Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B.; Linnell, John D. C.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore–livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed. PMID:24278123

  7. Analyzing hospitalization data: potential limitations of Poisson regression.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Colin G; Ravani, Pietro; Oliver, Matthew J; Austin, Peter C; Quinn, Robert R

    2015-08-01

    Poisson regression is commonly used to analyze hospitalization data when outcomes are expressed as counts (e.g. number of days in hospital). However, data often violate the assumptions on which Poisson regression is based. More appropriate extensions of this model, while available, are rarely used. We compared hospitalization data between 206 patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) and 107 treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) using Poisson regression and compared results from standard Poisson regression with those obtained using three other approaches for modeling count data: negative binomial (NB) regression, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression. We examined the appropriateness of each model and compared the results obtained with each approach. During a mean 1.9 years of follow-up, 183 of 313 patients (58%) were never hospitalized (indicating an excess of 'zeros'). The data also displayed overdispersion (variance greater than mean), violating another assumption of the Poisson model. Using four criteria, we determined that the NB and ZINB models performed best. According to these two models, patients treated with HD experienced similar hospitalization rates as those receiving PD {NB rate ratio (RR): 1.04 [bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-2.20]; ZINB summary RR: 1.21 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.60-2.46)}. Poisson and ZIP models fit the data poorly and had much larger point estimates than the NB and ZINB models [Poisson RR: 1.93 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-4.23); ZIP summary RR: 1.84 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-3.84)]. We found substantially different results when modeling hospitalization data, depending on the approach used. Our results argue strongly for a sound model selection process and improved reporting around statistical methods used for modeling count data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  8. Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta-analysis and group level studies.

    PubMed

    Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Kulinskaya, Elena; Morgenthaler, Stephan

    2016-07-01

    We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group-level studies or in meta-analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log-odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p̂, both for single-group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta-analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta-analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias-correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias-correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta-analyses of prevalence. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

  9. Response of selected binomial coefficients to varying degrees of matrix sparseness and to matrices with known data interrelationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archer, A.W.; Maples, C.G.

    1989-01-01

    Numerous departures from ideal relationships are revealed by Monte Carlo simulations of widely accepted binomial coefficients. For example, simulations incorporating varying levels of matrix sparseness (presence of zeros indicating lack of data) and computation of expected values reveal that not only are all common coefficients influenced by zero data, but also that some coefficients do not discriminate between sparse or dense matrices (few zero data). Such coefficients computationally merge mutually shared and mutually absent information and do not exploit all the information incorporated within the standard 2 ?? 2 contingency table; therefore, the commonly used formulae for such coefficients are more complicated than the actual range of values produced. Other coefficients do differentiate between mutual presences and absences; however, a number of these coefficients do not demonstrate a linear relationship to matrix sparseness. Finally, simulations using nonrandom matrices with known degrees of row-by-row similarities signify that several coefficients either do not display a reasonable range of values or are nonlinear with respect to known relationships within the data. Analyses with nonrandom matrices yield clues as to the utility of certain coefficients for specific applications. For example, coefficients such as Jaccard, Dice, and Baroni-Urbani and Buser are useful if correction of sparseness is desired, whereas the Russell-Rao coefficient is useful when sparseness correction is not desired. ?? 1989 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  10. Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta‐analysis and group level studies

    PubMed Central

    Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Morgenthaler, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group‐level studies or in meta‐analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log‐odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p^, both for single‐group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta‐analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta‐analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias‐correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias‐correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta‐analyses of prevalence. PMID:27192062

  11. Cost-effective binomial sequential sampling of western bean cutworm, Striacosta albicosta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), egg masses in corn.

    PubMed

    Paula-Moraes, S; Burkness, E C; Hunt, T E; Wright, R J; Hein, G L; Hutchison, W D

    2011-12-01

    Striacosta albicosta (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a native pest of dry beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and corn (Zea mays L.). As a result of larval feeding damage on corn ears, S. albicosta has a narrow treatment window; thus, early detection of the pest in the field is essential, and egg mass sampling has become a popular monitoring tool. Three action thresholds for field and sweet corn currently are used by crop consultants, including 4% of plants infested with egg masses on sweet corn in the silking-tasseling stage, 8% of plants infested with egg masses on field corn with approximately 95% tasseled, and 20% of plants infested with egg masses on field corn during mid-milk-stage corn. The current monitoring recommendation is to sample 20 plants at each of five locations per field (100 plants total). In an effort to develop a more cost-effective sampling plan for S. albicosta egg masses, several alternative binomial sampling plans were developed using Wald's sequential probability ratio test, and validated using Resampling for Validation of Sampling Plans (RVSP) software. The benefit-cost ratio also was calculated and used to determine the final selection of sampling plans. Based on final sampling plans selected for each action threshold, the average sample number required to reach a treat or no-treat decision ranged from 38 to 41 plants per field. This represents a significant savings in sampling cost over the current recommendation of 100 plants.

  12. Binomial probability distribution model-based protein identification algorithm for tandem mass spectrometry utilizing peak intensity information.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Chuan-Le; Chen, Xiao-Zhou; Du, Yang-Li; Sun, Xuesong; Zhang, Gong; He, Qing-Yu

    2013-01-04

    Mass spectrometry has become one of the most important technologies in proteomic analysis. Tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) is a major tool for the analysis of peptide mixtures from protein samples. The key step of MS data processing is the identification of peptides from experimental spectra by searching public sequence databases. Although a number of algorithms to identify peptides from MS/MS data have been already proposed, e.g. Sequest, OMSSA, X!Tandem, Mascot, etc., they are mainly based on statistical models considering only peak-matches between experimental and theoretical spectra, but not peak intensity information. Moreover, different algorithms gave different results from the same MS data, implying their probable incompleteness and questionable reproducibility. We developed a novel peptide identification algorithm, ProVerB, based on a binomial probability distribution model of protein tandem mass spectrometry combined with a new scoring function, making full use of peak intensity information and, thus, enhancing the ability of identification. Compared with Mascot, Sequest, and SQID, ProVerB identified significantly more peptides from LC-MS/MS data sets than the current algorithms at 1% False Discovery Rate (FDR) and provided more confident peptide identifications. ProVerB is also compatible with various platforms and experimental data sets, showing its robustness and versatility. The open-source program ProVerB is available at http://bioinformatics.jnu.edu.cn/software/proverb/ .

  13. Spiritual and ceremonial plants in North America: an assessment of Moerman's ethnobotanical database comparing Residual, Binomial, Bayesian and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analysis.

    PubMed

    Turi, Christina E; Murch, Susan J

    2013-07-09

    Ethnobotanical research and the study of plants used for rituals, ceremonies and to connect with the spirit world have led to the discovery of many novel psychoactive compounds such as nicotine, caffeine, and cocaine. In North America, spiritual and ceremonial uses of plants are well documented and can be accessed online via the University of Michigan's Native American Ethnobotany Database. The objective of the study was to compare Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analyses of ritual, ceremonial and spiritual plants in Moerman's ethnobotanical database and to identify genera that may be good candidates for the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The database was queried with the following format "Family Name AND Ceremonial OR Spiritual" for 263 North American botanical families. Spiritual and ceremonial flora consisted of 86 families with 517 species belonging to 292 genera. Spiritual taxa were then grouped further into ceremonial medicines and items categories. Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and IDM analysis were performed to identify over and under-utilized families. The 4 statistical approaches were in good agreement when identifying under-utilized families but large families (>393 species) were underemphasized by Binomial, Bayesian and IDM approaches for over-utilization. Residual, Binomial, and IDM analysis identified similar families as over-utilized in the medium (92-392 species) and small (<92 species) classes. The families Apiaceae, Asteraceae, Ericacea, Pinaceae and Salicaceae were identified as significantly over-utilized as ceremonial medicines in medium and large sized families. Analysis of genera within the Apiaceae and Asteraceae suggest that the genus Ligusticum and Artemisia are good candidates for facilitating the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The 4 statistical approaches were not consistent in the selection of over-utilization of flora. Residual analysis revealed overall trends that were supported

  14. A Binomial Modeling Approach for Upscaling Colloid Transport Under Unfavorable Attachment Conditions: Emergent Prediction of Nonmonotonic Retention Profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilpert, Markus; Johnson, William P.

    2018-01-01

    We used a recently developed simple mathematical network model to upscale pore-scale colloid transport information determined under unfavorable attachment conditions. Classical log-linear and nonmonotonic retention profiles, both well-reported under favorable and unfavorable attachment conditions, respectively, emerged from our upscaling. The primary attribute of the network is colloid transfer between bulk pore fluid, the near-surface fluid domain (NSFD), and attachment (treated as irreversible). The network model accounts for colloid transfer to the NSFD of downgradient grains and for reentrainment to bulk pore fluid via diffusion or via expulsion at rear flow stagnation zones (RFSZs). The model describes colloid transport by a sequence of random trials in a one-dimensional (1-D) network of Happel cells, which contain a grain and a pore. Using combinatorial analysis that capitalizes on the binomial coefficient, we derived from the pore-scale information the theoretical residence time distribution of colloids in the network. The transition from log-linear to nonmonotonic retention profiles occurs when the conditions underlying classical filtration theory are not fulfilled, i.e., when an NSFD colloid population is maintained. Then, nonmonotonic retention profiles result potentially both for attached and NSFD colloids. The concentration maxima shift downgradient depending on specific parameter choice. The concentration maxima were also shown to shift downgradient temporally (with continued elution) under conditions where attachment is negligible, explaining experimentally observed downgradient transport of retained concentration maxima of adhesion-deficient bacteria. For the case of zero reentrainment, we develop closed-form, analytical expressions for the shape, and the maximum of the colloid retention profile.

  15. [The reentrant binomial model of nuclear anomalies growth in rhabdomyosarcoma RA-23 cell populations under increasing doze of rare ionizing radiation].

    PubMed

    Alekseeva, N P; Alekseev, A O; Vakhtin, Iu B; Kravtsov, V Iu; Kuzovatov, S N; Skorikova, T I

    2008-01-01

    Distributions of nuclear morphology anomalies in transplantable rabdomiosarcoma RA-23 cell populations were investigated under effect of ionizing radiation from 0 to 45 Gy. Internuclear bridges, nuclear protrusions and dumbbell-shaped nuclei were accepted for morphological anomalies. Empirical distributions of the number of anomalies per 100 nuclei were used. The adequate model of reentrant binomial distribution has been found. The sum of binomial random variables with binomial number of summands has such distribution. Averages of these random variables were named, accordingly, internal and external average reentrant components. Their maximum likelihood estimations were received. Statistical properties of these estimations were investigated by means of statistical modeling. It has been received that at equally significant correlation between the radiation dose and the average of nuclear anomalies in cell populations after two-three cellular cycles from the moment of irradiation in vivo the irradiation doze significantly correlates with internal average reentrant component, and in remote descendants of cell transplants irradiated in vitro - with external one.

  16. Explaining negative refraction without negative refractive indices.

    PubMed

    Talalai, Gregory A; Garner, Timothy J; Weiss, Steven J

    2018-03-01

    Negative refraction through a triangular prism may be explained without assigning a negative refractive index to the prism by using array theory. For the case of a beam incident upon the wedge, the array theory accurately predicts the beam transmission angle through the prism and provides an estimate of the frequency interval at which negative refraction occurs. The hypotenuse of the prism has a staircase shape because it is built of cubic unit cells. The large phase delay imparted by each unit cell, combined with the staircase shape of the hypotenuse, creates the necessary conditions for negative refraction. Full-wave simulations using the finite-difference time-domain method show that array theory accurately predicts the beam transmission angle.

  17. A Negative Revelation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hillis, R. K.

    1982-01-01

    Describes how teaching secondary art students to perceive negative shape improved their drawings of a bicycle, a visually complex mechanical structure. Concentrating on negative shape forces students to work with the relationships between shapes and their relative sizes. (AM)

  18. Culture-negative endocarditis

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000657.htm Culture-negative endocarditis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Culture-negative endocarditis is an infection and inflammation of ...

  19. Negative ion generator

    DOEpatents

    Stinnett, R.W.

    1984-05-08

    A negative ion generator is formed from a magnetically insulated transmission line having a coating of graphite on the cathode for producing negative ions and a plurality of apertures on the opposed anode for the release of negative ions. Magnetic insulation keeps electrons from flowing from the cathode to the anode. A transverse magnetic field removes electrons which do escape through the apertures from the trajectory of the negative ions. 8 figs.

  20. Negative ion generator

    DOEpatents

    Stinnett, Regan W.

    1984-01-01

    A negative ion generator is formed from a magnetically insulated transmission line having a coating of graphite on the cathode for producing negative ions and a plurality of apertures on the opposed anode for the release of negative ions. Magnetic insulation keeps electrons from flowing from the cathode to the anode. A transverse magnetic field removes electrons which do escape through the apertures from the trajectory of the negative ions.

  1. Sentential Negation in English

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mowarin, Macaulay

    2009-01-01

    This paper undertakes a detailed analysis of sentential negation in the English language with Chomsky's Government-Binding theory of Transformational Grammar as theoretical model. It distinguishes between constituent and sentential negation in English. The essay identifies the exact position of Negation phrase in an English clause structure. It…

  2. A big data approach to the development of mixed-effects models for seizure count data.

    PubMed

    Tharayil, Joseph J; Chiang, Sharon; Moss, Robert; Stern, John M; Theodore, William H; Goldenholz, Daniel M

    2017-05-01

    Our objective was to develop a generalized linear mixed model for predicting seizure count that is useful in the design and analysis of clinical trials. This model also may benefit the design and interpretation of seizure-recording paradigms. Most existing seizure count models do not include children, and there is currently no consensus regarding the most suitable model that can be applied to children and adults. Therefore, an additional objective was to develop a model that accounts for both adult and pediatric epilepsy. Using data from SeizureTracker.com, a patient-reported seizure diary tool with >1.2 million recorded seizures across 8 years, we evaluated the appropriateness of Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, and modified negative binomial models for seizure count data based on minimization of the Bayesian information criterion. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to account for demographic and etiologic covariates and for autocorrelation structure. Holdout cross-validation was used to evaluate predictive accuracy in simulating seizure frequencies. For both adults and children, we found that a negative binomial model with autocorrelation over 1 day was optimal. Using holdout cross-validation, the proposed model was found to provide accurate simulation of seizure counts for patients with up to four seizures per day. The optimal model can be used to generate more realistic simulated patient data with very few input parameters. The availability of a parsimonious, realistic virtual patient model can be of great utility in simulations of phase II/III clinical trials, epilepsy monitoring units, outpatient biosensors, and mobile Health (mHealth) applications. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

  3. A Negative Ion Cookbook

    Science.gov Websites

    Acknowledgements Introduction Negative Ion Source Operating Conditions & Procedures Cathode Ionization Potentials & Electron Affinities A Negative-Ion Cookbook Roy Middleton Department Of Physics 3Li Lithium 4Be Beryllium 5B Boron 6C Carbon 7N Nitrogen 8O Oxygen 9F Fluorine 10Ne Neon 11Na Sodium

  4. Development of binomial sequential sampling plans for forecasting Listronotus maculicollis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) larvae based on the relationship to adult counts and turfgrass damage.

    PubMed

    McGraw, Benjamin A; Koppenhöfer, Albrecht M

    2009-06-01

    Binomial sequential sampling plans were developed to forecast weevil Listronotus maculicollis Kirby (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), larval damage to golf course turfgrass and aid in the development of integrated pest management programs for the weevil. Populations of emerging overwintered adults were sampled over a 2-yr period to determine the relationship between adult counts, larval density, and turfgrass damage. Larval density and composition of preferred host plants (Poa annua L.) significantly affected the expression of turfgrass damage. Multiple regression indicates that damage may occur in moderately mixed P. annua stands with as few as 10 larvae per 0.09 m2. However, > 150 larvae were required before damage became apparent in pure Agrostis stolonifera L. plots. Adult counts during peaks in emergence as well as cumulative counts across the emergence period were significantly correlated to future densities of larvae. Eight binomial sequential sampling plans based on two tally thresholds for classifying infestation (T = 1 and two adults) and four adult density thresholds (0.5, 0.85, 1.15, and 1.35 per 3.34 m2) were developed to forecast the likelihood of turfgrass damage by using adult counts during peak emergence. Resampling for validation of sample plans software was used to validate sampling plans with field-collected data sets. All sampling plans were found to deliver accurate classifications (correct decisions were made between 84.4 and 96.8%) in a practical timeframe (average sampling cost < 22.7 min).

  5. Revisiting negative selection algorithms.

    PubMed

    Ji, Zhou; Dasgupta, Dipankar

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews the progress of negative selection algorithms, an anomaly/change detection approach in Artificial Immune Systems (AIS). Following its initial model, we try to identify the fundamental characteristics of this family of algorithms and summarize their diversities. There exist various elements in this method, including data representation, coverage estimate, affinity measure, and matching rules, which are discussed for different variations. The various negative selection algorithms are categorized by different criteria as well. The relationship and possible combinations with other AIS or other machine learning methods are discussed. Prospective development and applicability of negative selection algorithms and their influence on related areas are then speculated based on the discussion.

  6. Negative birefringent polyimide films

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Frank W. (Inventor); Cheng, Stephen Z. D. (Inventor)

    1994-01-01

    A negative birefringent film, useful in liquid crystal displays, and a method for controlling the negative birefringence of a polyimide film is disclosed which allows the matching of an application to a targeted amount of birefringence by controlling the degree of in-plane orientation of the polyimide by the selection of functional groups within both the diamine and dianhydride segments of the polyimide which affect the polyimide backbone chain rigidity, linearity, and symmetry. The higher the rigidity, linearity and symmetry of the polyimide backbone, the larger the value of the negative birefringence of the polyimide film.

  7. Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

    PubMed

    Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

    2016-05-01

    Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

    PubMed

    Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

    2014-03-01

    To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Negative electrode composition

    DOEpatents

    Kaun, Thomas D.; Chilenskas, Albert A.

    1982-01-01

    A secondary electrochemical cell and a negative electrode composition for use therewith comprising a positive electrode containing an active material of a chalcogen or a transiton metal chalcogenide, a negative electrode containing a lithium-aluminum alloy and an amount of a ternary alloy sufficient to provide at least about 5 percent overcharge capacity relative to a negative electrode solely of the lithium-aluminum alloy, the ternary alloy comprising lithium, aluminum, and iron or cobalt, and an electrolyte containing lithium ions in contact with both of the positive and the negative electrodes. The ternary alloy is present in the electrode in the range of from about 5 percent to about 50 percent by weight of the electrode composition and may include lithium-aluminum-nickel alloy in combination with either the ternary iron or cobalt alloys. A plurality of series connected cells having overcharge capacity can be equalized on the discharge side without expensive electrical equipment.

  10. Various methods of determining the natural frequencies and damping of composite cantilever plates. 1. Exact solution for the binomial model of deformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skel'chik, V. S.; Ryabov, V. M.

    1996-11-01

    On the basis of the classical theory of thin anisotropic laminated plates the article analyzes the free vibrations of rectangular cantilever plates made of fibrous composites. The application of Kantorovich's method for the binomial representation of the shape of the elastic surface of a plate yielded for two unknown functions a system of two connected differential equations and the corresponding boundary conditions at the place of constraint and at the free edge. The exact solution for the frequencies and forms of the free vibrations was found with the use of Laplace transformation with respect to the space variable. The magnitudes of several first dimensionless frequencies of the bending and torsional vibrations of the plate were calculated for a wide range of change of two dimensionless complexes, with the dimensions of the plate and the anisotropy of the elastic properties of the material taken into account. The article shows that with torsional vibrations the warping constraint at the fixed end explains the apparent dependence of the shear modulus of the composite on the length of the specimen that had been discovered earlier on in experiments with a torsional pendulum. It examines the interaction and transformation of the second bending mode and of the first torsional mode of the vibrations. It analyzes the asymptotics of the dimensionless frequencies when the length of the plate is increased, and it shows that taking into account the bending-torsion interaction in strongly anisotropic materials type unidirectional carbon reinforced plastic can reduce substantially the frequencies of the bending vibrations but has no effect (within the framework of the binomial model) on the frequencies of the torsional vibrations.

  11. Household Implementation of Smoke-Free Rules in Homes and Cars: A Focus on Adolescent Smoking Behavior and Secondhand Smoke Exposure.

    PubMed

    Parks, Michael J; Kingsbury, John H; Boyle, Raymond G; Evered, Sharrilyn

    2018-01-01

    This study addresses the dearth of population-based research on how comprehensive household smoke-free rules (ie, in the home and car) relate to tobacco use and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among adolescents. Analysis of 2014 Minnesota Youth Tobacco Survey. Representative sample of Minnesota youth. A total of 1287 youth who lived with a smoker. Measures included household smoke-free rules (no rules, partial rules-home or car, but not both-and comprehensive rules), lifetime and 30-day cigarette use, 30-day cigarette and other product use, and SHS exposure in past 7 days in home and car. Weighted multivariate logistic, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were used. Compared to comprehensive rules, partial and no smoke-free rules were significantly and positively related to lifetime cigarette use (respectively, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24-2.61; AOR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.93-4.25), and a similar significant pattern was found for 30-day cigarette use (respectively, AOR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.21-4.02; AOR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.34-4.50). No smoke-free rules significantly predicted using cigarettes and other tobacco products compared to comprehensive rules. In both descriptive and regression analyses, we found SHS exposure rates in both the home and car were significantly lower among youth whose household implemented comprehensive smoke-free rules. Comprehensive smoke-free rules protect youth from the harms of caregiver tobacco use. Relative to both partial and no smoke-free rules, comprehensive smoke-free rules have a marked impact on tobacco use and SHS exposure among youth who live with a smoker. Health promotion efforts should promote comprehensive smoke-free rules among all households and particularly households with children and adolescents.

  12. The Negative Repetition Effect

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mulligan, Neil W.; Peterson, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental property of human memory is that repetition enhances memory. Peterson and Mulligan (2012) recently documented a surprising "negative repetition effect," in which participants who studied a list of cue-target pairs twice recalled fewer targets than a group who studied the pairs only once. Words within a pair rhymed, and…

  13. Three-part joint modeling methods for complex functional data mixed with zero-and-one-inflated proportions and zero-inflated continuous outcomes with skewness.

    PubMed

    Li, Haocheng; Staudenmayer, John; Wang, Tianying; Keadle, Sarah Kozey; Carroll, Raymond J

    2018-02-20

    We take a functional data approach to longitudinal studies with complex bivariate outcomes. This work is motivated by data from a physical activity study that measured 2 responses over time in 5-minute intervals. One response is the proportion of time active in each interval, a continuous proportions with excess zeros and ones. The other response, energy expenditure rate in the interval, is a continuous variable with excess zeros and skewness. This outcome is complex because there are 3 possible activity patterns in each interval (inactive, partially active, and completely active), and those patterns, which are observed, induce both nonrandom and random associations between the responses. More specifically, the inactive pattern requires a zero value in both the proportion for active behavior and the energy expenditure rate; a partially active pattern means that the proportion of activity is strictly between zero and one and that the energy expenditure rate is greater than zero and likely to be moderate, and the completely active pattern means that the proportion of activity is exactly one, and the energy expenditure rate is greater than zero and likely to be higher. To address these challenges, we propose a 3-part functional data joint modeling approach. The first part is a continuation-ratio model to reorder the ordinal valued 3 activity patterns. The second part models the proportions when they are in interval (0,1). The last component specifies the skewed continuous energy expenditure rate with Box-Cox transformations when they are greater than zero. In this 3-part model, the regression structures are specified as smooth curves measured at various time points with random effects that have a correlation structure. The smoothed random curves for each variable are summarized using a few important principal components, and the association of the 3 longitudinal components is modeled through the association of the principal component scores. The difficulties in handling the ordinal and proportional variables are addressed using a quasi-likelihood type approximation. We develop an efficient algorithm to fit the model that also involves the selection of the number of principal components. The method is applied to physical activity data and is evaluated empirically by a simulation study. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Negative Emissions Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, Danny

    2006-04-01

    Although `negative emissions' of carbon dioxide need not, in principle, involve use of biological processes to draw carbon out of the atmosphere, such `agricultural' sequestration' is the only known way to remove carbon from the atmosphere on time scales comparable to the time scale for anthropogenic increases in carbon emissions. In order to maintain the `negative emissions' the biomass must be used in such a way that the resulting carbon dioxide is separated and permanently sequestered. Two options for sequestration are in the topsoil and via geologic carbon sequestration. The former has multiple benefits, but the latter also is needed. Thus, although geologic carbon sequestration is viewed skeptically by some environmentalists as simply a way to keep using fossil fuels---it may be a key part of reversing accelerating climate forcing if rapid climate change is beginning to occur. I will first review the general approach of agricultural sequestration combined with use of resulting biofuels in a way that permits carbon separation and then geologic sequestration as a negative emissions technology. Then I discuss the process that is the focus of my company---the EPRIDA cycle. If deployed at a sufficiently large scale, it could reverse the increase in CO2 concentrations. I also estimate of benefits --carbon and other---of large scale deployment of negative emissions technologies. For example, using the EPRIDA cycle by planting and soil sequestering carbon in an area abut In 3X the size of Texas would remove the amount of carbon that is being accumulated worldwide each year. In addition to the atmospheric carbon removal, the EPRIDA approach also counters the depletion of carbon in the soil---increasing topsoil and its fertility; reduces the excess nitrogen in the water by eliminating the need for ammonium nitrate fertilizer and reduces fossil fuel reliance by providing biofuel and avoiding natural gas based fertilizer production.

  15. Selecting a distributional assumption for modelling relative densities of benthic macroinvertebrates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gray, B.R.

    2005-01-01

    The selection of a distributional assumption suitable for modelling macroinvertebrate density data is typically challenging. Macroinvertebrate data often exhibit substantially larger variances than expected under a standard count assumption, that of the Poisson distribution. Such overdispersion may derive from multiple sources, including heterogeneity of habitat (historically and spatially), differing life histories for organisms collected within a single collection in space and time, and autocorrelation. Taken to extreme, heterogeneity of habitat may be argued to explain the frequent large proportions of zero observations in macroinvertebrate data. Sampling locations may consist of habitats defined qualitatively as either suitable or unsuitable. The former category may yield random or stochastic zeroes and the latter structural zeroes. Heterogeneity among counts may be accommodated by treating the count mean itself as a random variable, while extra zeroes may be accommodated using zero-modified count assumptions, including zero-inflated and two-stage (or hurdle) approaches. These and linear assumptions (following log- and square root-transformations) were evaluated using 9 years of mayfly density data from a 52 km, ninth-order reach of the Upper Mississippi River (n = 959). The data exhibited substantial overdispersion relative to that expected under a Poisson assumption (i.e. variance:mean ratio = 23 ??? 1), and 43% of the sampling locations yielded zero mayflies. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), count models were improved most by treating the count mean as a random variable (via a Poisson-gamma distributional assumption) and secondarily by zero modification (i.e. improvements in AIC values = 9184 units and 47-48 units, respectively). Zeroes were underestimated by the Poisson, log-transform and square root-transform models, slightly by the standard negative binomial model but not by the zero-modified models (61%, 24%, 32%, 7%, and 0%, respectively

  16. Polarized negative ions

    SciTech Connect

    Haeberli, W.

    1981-04-01

    This paper presents a survey of methods, commonly in use or under development, to produce beams of polarized negative ions for injection into accelerators. A short summary recalls how the hyperfine interaction is used to obtain nuclear polarization in beams of atoms. Atomic-beam sources for light ions are discussed. If the best presently known techniques are incorporated in all stages of the source, polarized H/sup -/ and D/sup -/ beams in excess of 10 ..mu..A can probably be achieved. Production of polarized ions from fast (keV) beams of polarized atoms is treated separately for atoms in the H(25) excited statemore » (Lamb-Shift source) and atoms in the H(1S) ground state. The negative ion beam from Lamb-Shift sources has reached a plateau just above 1 ..mu..A, but this beam current is adequate for many applications and the somewhat lower beam current is compensated by other desirable characteristics. Sources using fast polarized ground state atoms are in a stage of intense development. The next sections summarize production of polarized heavy ions by the atomic beam method, which is well established, and by optical pumping, which has recently been demonstrated to yield very large nuclear polarization. A short discussion of proposed ion sources for polarized /sup 3/He/sup -/ ions is followed by some concluding remarks.« less

  17. Negative Entropy of Life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goradia, Shantilal

    2015-10-01

    We modify Newtonian gravity to probabilistic quantum mechanical gravity to derive strong coupling. If this approach is valid, we should be able to extend it to the physical body (life) as follows. Using Boltzmann equation, we get the entropy of the universe (137) as if its reciprocal, the fine structure constant (ALPHA), is the hidden candidate representing the negative entropy of the universe which is indicative of the binary information as its basis (http://www.arXiv.org/pdf/physics0210040v5). Since ALPHA relates to cosmology, it must relate to molecular biology too, with the binary system as the fundamental source of information for the nucleotides of the DNA as implicit in the book by the author: ``Quantum Consciousness - The Road to Reality.'' We debate claims of anthropic principle based on the negligible variation of ALPHA and throw light on thermodynamics. We question constancy of G in multiple ways.

  18. Do `negative' temperatures exist?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavenda, B. H.

    1999-06-01

    A modification of the second law is required for a system with a bounded density of states and not the introduction of a `negative' temperature scale. The ascending and descending branches of the entropy versus energy curve describe particle and hole states, having thermal equations of state that are given by the Fermi and logistic distributions, respectively. Conservation of energy requires isentropic states to be isothermal. The effect of adiabatically reversing the field is entirely mechanical because the only difference between the two states is their energies. The laws of large and small numbers, leading to the normal and Poisson approximations, characterize statistically the states of infinite and zero temperatures, respectively. Since the heat capacity also vanishes in the state of maximum disorder, the third law can be generalized in systems with a bounded density of states: the entropy tends to a constant as the temperature tends to either zero or infinity.

  19. [Negative pressure therapy: NPT].

    PubMed

    Maillard, H

    2015-01-01

    Negative pressure therapy or treatment (NPT) is used very frequently in hospitals in both surgical and medical departments. NPT consists of maintaining the wound surface at a pressure below ambient atmospheric pressure by means of a specially designed dressing attached to a depressurisation device as well as a system to drain exudate. NPT has been shown to be beneficial in increasing blood flow, thanks to feedback resulting from the decreased oxygen pressure, angiogenesis and reduction of the wound surface area. The French Health Authority (HAS) has issued recommendations for good use in a specific and limited series of applications. NPT may be used in post-traumatic or post-surgical wounds, burns, and in chronic wounds, such as bedsores and ulcers. It is also effective as an adjuvant treatment for infected wounds. In recent years, various different NPT devices have become commercially available. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Negative ion source

    DOEpatents

    Leung, Ka-Ngo; Ehlers, Kenneth W.

    1984-01-01

    An ionization vessel is divided into an ionizing zone and an extraction zone by a magnetic filter. The magnetic filter prevents high-energy electrons from crossing from the ionizing zone to the extraction zone. A small positive voltage impressed on a plasma grid, located adjacent an extraction grid, positively biases the plasma in the extraction zone to thereby prevent positive ions from migrating from the ionizing zone to the extraction zone. Low-energy electrons, which would ordinarily be dragged by the positive ions into the extraction zone, are thereby prevented from being present in the extraction zone and being extracted along with negative ions by the extraction grid. Additional electrons are suppressed from the output flux using ExB drift provided by permanent magnets and the extractor grid electrical field.

  1. Negative ion source

    DOEpatents

    Leung, K.N.; Ehlers, K.W.

    1982-08-06

    An ionization vessel is divided into an ionizing zone and an extraction zone by a magnetic filter. The magnetic filter prevents high-energy electrons from crossing from the ionizing zone to the extraction zone. A small positive voltage impressed on a plasma grid, located adjacent an extraction grid, positively biases the plasma in the extraction zone to thereby prevent positive ions from migrating from the ionizing zone to the extraction zone. Low-energy electrons, which would ordinarily be dragged by the positive ions into the extraction zone, are thereby prevented from being present in the extraction zone and being extracted along with negative ions by the extraction grid. Additional electrons are suppressed from the output flux using ExB drift provided by permanent magnets and the extractor grid electrical field.

  2. Negative ion source

    DOEpatents

    Leung, K.N.; Ehlers, K.W.

    1984-12-04

    An ionization vessel is divided into an ionizing zone and an extraction zone by a magnetic filter. The magnetic filter prevents high-energy electrons from crossing from the ionizing zone to the extraction zone. A small positive voltage impressed on a plasma grid, located adjacent an extraction grid, positively biases the plasma in the extraction zone to thereby prevent positive ions from migrating from the ionizing zone to the extraction zone. Low-energy electrons, which would ordinarily be dragged by the positive ions into the extraction zone, are thereby prevented from being present in the extraction zone and being extracted along with negative ions by the extraction grid. Additional electrons are suppressed from the output flux using ExB drift provided by permanent magnets and the extractor grid electrical field. 14 figs.

  3. Joint Analysis of Binomial and Continuous Traits with a Recursive Model: A Case Study Using Mortality and Litter Size of Pigs

    PubMed Central

    Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a model for the joint analysis of a binomial and a Gaussian trait using a recursive parametrization that leads to a computationally efficient implementation. The model is illustrated in an analysis of mortality and litter size in two breeds of Danish pigs, Landrace and Yorkshire. Available evidence suggests that mortality of piglets increased partly as a result of successful selection for total number of piglets born. In recent years there has been a need to decrease the incidence of mortality in pig-breeding programs. We report estimates of genetic variation at the level of the logit of the probability of mortality and quantify how it is affected by the size of the litter. Several models for mortality are considered and the best fits are obtained by postulating linear and cubic relationships between the logit of the probability of mortality and litter size, for Landrace and Yorkshire, respectively. An interpretation of how the presence of genetic variation affects the probability of mortality in the population is provided and we discuss and quantify the prospects of selecting for reduced mortality, without affecting litter size. PMID:24414548

  4. The influence of impulsiveness on binge eating and problem gambling: A prospective study of gender differences in Canadian adults.

    PubMed

    Farstad, Sarah M; von Ranson, Kristin M; Hodgins, David C; El-Guebaly, Nady; Casey, David M; Schopflocher, Don P

    2015-09-01

    This study investigated the degree to which facets of impulsiveness predicted future binge eating and problem gambling, 2 theorized forms of behavioral addiction. Participants were 596 women and 406 men from 4 age cohorts randomly recruited from a Canadian province. Participants completed self-report measures of 3 facets of impulsiveness (negative urgency, sensation seeking, lack of persistence), binge-eating frequency, and problem-gambling symptoms. Impulsiveness was assessed at baseline, and assessments of binge eating and problem gambling were followed up after 3 years. Weighted data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial and Poisson regression models. We found evidence of transdiagnostic and disorder-specific predictors of binge eating and problem gambling. Negative urgency emerged as a common predictor of binge eating and problem gambling among women and men. There were disorder-specific personality traits identified among men only: High lack-of-persistence scores predicted binge eating and high sensation-seeking scores predicted problem gambling. Among women, younger age predicted binge eating and older age predicted problem gambling. Thus, there are gender differences in facets of impulsiveness that longitudinally predict binge eating and problem gambling, suggesting that treatments for these behaviors should consider gender-specific personality and demographic traits in addition to the common personality trait of negative urgency. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Lithium alloy negative electrodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggins, Robert A.

    The 1996 announcement by Fuji Photo Film of the development of lithium batteries containing convertible metal oxides has caused a great deal of renewed interest in lithium alloys as alternative materials for use in the negative electrode of rechargeable lithium cells. The earlier work on lithium alloys, both at elevated and ambient temperatures is briefly reviewed. Basic principles relating thermodynamics, phase diagrams and electrochemical properties under near-equilibrium conditions are discussed, with the Li-Sn system as an example. Second-phase nucleation, and its hindrance under dynamic conditions plays an important role in determining deviations from equilibrium behavior. Two general types of composite microstructure electrodes, those with a mixed-conducting matrix, and those with a solid electrolyte matrix, are discussed. The Li-Sn-Si system at elevated temperatures, and the Li-Sn-Cd at ambient temperatures are shown to be examples of mixed-conducting matrix microstructures. The convertible oxides are an example of the solid electrolyte matrix type. Although the reversible capacity can be very large in this case, the first cycle irreversible capacity required to convert the oxides to alloys may be a significant handicap.

  6. Negative ion source

    DOEpatents

    Delmore, James E.

    1987-01-01

    A method and apparatus for providing a negative ion source accelerates electrons away from a hot filament electron emitter into a region of crossed electric and magnetic fields arranged in a magnetron configuration. During a portion of the resulting cycloidal path, the electron velocity is reduced below its initial value. The electron accelerates as it leaves the surface at a rate of only slightly less than if there were no magnetic field, thereby preventing a charge buildup at the surface of the emitter. As the electron traverses the cycloid, it is decelerated during the second, third, and fourth quadrants, then reeccelerated as it approaches the end of the fourth quadrant to regain its original velocity. The minimum velocity occurs during the fourth quadrant, and corresponds to an electron temperature of 200.degree. to 500.degree. for the electric and magnetic fields commonly encountered in the ion sources of magnetic sector mass spectrometers. An ion source using the above-described thermalized electrons is also disclosed.

  7. Improved negative ion source

    DOEpatents

    Delmore, J.E.

    1984-05-01

    A method and apparatus for providing a negative ion source accelerates electrons away from a hot filament electron emitter into a region of crossed electric and magnetic fields arranged in a magnetron configuration. During a portion of the resulting cycloidal path, the electron velocity is reduced below its initial value. The electron accelerates as it leaves the surface at a rate of only slightly less than if there were no magnetic field, thereby preventing a charge buildup at the surface of the emitter. As the electron traverses the cycloid, it is decelerated during the second, third, and fourth quadrants, then reaccelerated as it approaches the end of the fourth quadrant to regain its original velocity. The minimum velocity occurs during the fourth quadrant, and corresponds to an electron temperature of 200 to 500/sup 0/C for the electric and magnetic fields commonly encountered in the ion sources of magnetic sector mass spectrometers. An ion source using the above-described thermalized electrons is also disclosed.

  8. Coagulase-Negative Staphylococci

    PubMed Central

    Heilmann, Christine; Peters, Georg

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY The definition of the heterogeneous group of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) is still based on diagnostic procedures that fulfill the clinical need to differentiate between Staphylococcus aureus and those staphylococci classified historically as being less or nonpathogenic. Due to patient- and procedure-related changes, CoNS now represent one of the major nosocomial pathogens, with S. epidermidis and S. haemolyticus being the most significant species. They account substantially for foreign body-related infections and infections in preterm newborns. While S. saprophyticus has been associated with acute urethritis, S. lugdunensis has a unique status, in some aspects resembling S. aureus in causing infectious endocarditis. In addition to CoNS found as food-associated saprophytes, many other CoNS species colonize the skin and mucous membranes of humans and animals and are less frequently involved in clinically manifested infections. This blurred gradation in terms of pathogenicity is reflected by species- and strain-specific virulence factors and the development of different host-defending strategies. Clearly, CoNS possess fewer virulence properties than S. aureus, with a respectively different disease spectrum. In this regard, host susceptibility is much more important. Therapeutically, CoNS are challenging due to the large proportion of methicillin-resistant strains and increasing numbers of isolates with less susceptibility to glycopeptides. PMID:25278577

  9. Excited Negative Ions and Molecules and Negative Ion Production

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-01-01

    theoretically to have negative electron affinities, analogous to the rare gases. Then, Froese Fischer et al.I found theoretically that Ca- exists...AD-A247 017 Final Report - January 1992 EXCITED NEGATIVE IONS AND MOLECULES AND NEGATIVE ION PRODUCTION OTIC James R. Peterson, Senior Staff...Vice President 92-05594Physical Sciences Division1111111111II fuii 1111 ii 92 3 ’ Final Report . January 1992 EXCITED NEGATIVE IONS AND MOLECULES AND

  10. Traumatic Brain Injury among US Active Duty Military Personnel and Negative Drinking-Related Consequences

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Rachel Sayko; Larson, Mary Jo; Corrigan, John D.; Ritter, Grant A.; Williams, Thomas V.

    2013-01-01

    This study used the 2008 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors among Active Duty Military Personnel to determine whether traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with past year drinking-related consequences. The study sample included currently-drinking personnel who had a combat deployment in the past year and were home for ≥6 months (N = 3,350). Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the incidence rate ratios of consequences, by TBI-level. Experiencing a TBI with a loss of consciousness >20 minutes was significantly associated with consequences independent of demographics, combat exposure, posttraumatic stress disorder, and binge drinking. The study’s limitations are noted. PMID:23869456

  11. Negative Expertise: Comparing Differently Tenured Elder Care Nurses' Negative Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gartmeier, Martin; Lehtinen, Erno; Gruber, Hans; Heid, Helmut

    2011-01-01

    Negative expertise is conceptualised as the professional's ability to avoid errors during practice due to certain cognitive agencies. In this study, negative knowledge (i.e. knowledge about what is wrong in a certain context and situation) is conceptualised as one such agency. This study compares and investigates the negative knowledge of elder…

  12. Effects of health intervention programs and arsenic exposure on child mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in rural Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Jochem, Warren C; Razzaque, Abdur; Root, Elisabeth Dowling

    2016-09-01

    Respiratory infections continue to be a public health threat, particularly to young children in developing countries. Understanding the geographic patterns of diseases and the role of potential risk factors can help improve future mitigation efforts. Toward this goal, this paper applies a spatial scan statistic combined with a zero-inflated negative-binomial regression to re-examine the impacts of a community-based treatment program on the geographic patterns of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) mortality in an area of rural Bangladesh. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water is also a serious threat to the health of children in this area, and the variation in exposure to arsenic must be considered when evaluating the health interventions. ALRI mortality data were obtained for children under 2 years old from 1989 to 1996 in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System. This study period covers the years immediately following the implementation of an ALRI control program. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was first used to simultaneously estimate mortality rates and the likelihood of no deaths in groups of related households while controlling for socioeconomic status, potential arsenic exposure, and access to care. Next a spatial scan statistic was used to assess the location and magnitude of clusters of ALRI mortality. The ZINB model was used to adjust the scan statistic for multiple social and environmental risk factors. The results of the ZINB models and spatial scan statistic suggest that the ALRI control program was successful in reducing child mortality in the study area. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water was not associated with increased mortality. Higher socioeconomic status also significantly reduced mortality rates, even among households who were in the treatment program area. Community-based ALRI interventions can be effective at reducing child mortality, though socioeconomic factors may

  13. Bycatch, bait, anglers, and roads: quantifying vector activity and propagule introduction risk across lake ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Drake, D Andrew R; Mandrak, Nicholas E

    2014-06-01

    Long implicated in the invasion process, live-bait anglers are highly mobile species vectors with frequent overland transport of fishes. To test hypotheses about the role of anglers in propagule transport, we developed a social-ecological model quantifying the opportunity for species transport beyond the invaded range resulting from bycatch during commercial bait operations, incidental transport, and release to lake ecosystems by anglers. We combined a gravity model with a stochastic, agent-based simulation, representing a 1-yr iteration of live-bait angling and the dynamics of propagule transport at fine spatiotemporal scales (i.e., probability of introducing n propagules per lake per year). A baseline scenario involving round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) indicated that most angling trips were benign; irrespective of lake visitation, anglers failed to purchase and transport propagules (benign trips, median probability P = 0.99912). However, given the large number of probability trials (4.2 million live-bait angling events per year), even the rarest sequence of events (uptake, movement, and deposition of propagules) is anticipated to occur. Risky trips (modal P = 0.00088 trips per year; approximately 1 in 1136) were sufficient to introduce a substantial number of propagules (modal values, Poisson model = 3715 propagules among 1288 lakes per year; zero-inflated negative binomial model = 6722 propagules among 1292 lakes per year). Two patterns of lake-specific introduction risk emerged. Large lakes supporting substantial angling activity experienced propagule pressure likely to surpass demographic barriers to establishment (top 2.5% of lakes with modal outcomes of five to 76 propagules per year; 303 high-risk lakes with three or more propagules, per year). Small or remote lakes were less likely to receive propagules; however, most risk distributions were leptokurtic with a long right tail, indicating the rare occurrence of high propagule loads to most waterbodies

  14. Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

    PubMed

    Buckland, Steeves; Cole, Nik C; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Gallagher, Laura E; Henshaw, Sion M; Besnard, Aurélien; Tucker, Rachel M; Bachraz, Vishnu; Ruhomaun, Kevin; Harris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

  15. Systems with Many Degrees of Freedom: from Mean - Theories of Non-Fermi Liquid Behavior in Impurity Models to Implied Binomial Trees for Modeling Financial Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barle, Stanko

    In this dissertation, two dynamical systems with many degrees of freedom are analyzed. One is the system of highly correlated electrons in the two-impurity Kondo problem. The other deals with building a realistic model of diffusion underlying financial markets. The simplest mean-field theory capable of mimicking the non-Fermi liquid behavior of the critical point in the two-impurity Kondo problem is presented. In this approach Landau's adiabaticity assumption--of a one-to-one correspondence between the low-energy excitations of the interacting and noninteracting systems--is violated through the presence of decoupled local degrees of freedom. These do not couple directly to external fields but appear indirectly in the physical properties leading, for example, to the log(T, omega) behavior of the staggered magnetic susceptibility. Also, as observed previously, the correlation function <{bf S}_1 cdot{bf S}_2> = -1/4 is a consequence of the equal weights of the singlet and triplet impurity configurations at the critical point. In the second problem, a numerical model is developed to describe the diffusion of prices in the market. Implied binomial (or multinomial) trees are constructed to enable practical pricing of derivative securities in consistency with the existing market. The method developed here is capable of accounting for both the strike price and term structure of the implied volatility. It includes the correct treatment of interest rate and dividends which proves robust even if these quantities are unusually large. The method is explained both as a set of individual innovations and, from a different prospective, as a consequence of a single plausible transformation from the tree of spot prices to the tree of futures prices.

  16. Ruminative self-focus, negative life events, and negative affect

    PubMed Central

    Moberly, Nicholas J.; Watkins, Edward R.

    2008-01-01

    Ruminative thinking is believed to exacerbate the psychological distress that follows stressful life events. An experience-sampling study was conducted in which participants recorded negative life events, ruminative self-focus, and negative affect eight times daily over one week. Occasions when participants reported a negative event were marked by higher levels of negative affect. Additionally, negative events were prospectively associated with higher levels of negative affect at the next sampling occasion, and this relationship was partially mediated by momentary ruminative self-focus. Depressive symptoms were associated with more frequent negative events, but not with increased reactivity to negative events. Trait rumination was associated with reports of more severe negative events and increased reactivity to negative events. These results suggest that the extent to which a person engages in ruminative self-focus after everyday stressors is an important determinant of the degree of distress experienced after such events. Further, dispositional measures of rumination predict mood reactivity to everyday stressors in a non-clinical sample. PMID:18684437

  17. Problem drinking among Flemish students: beverage type, early drinking onset and negative personal & social consequences.

    PubMed

    De Bruyn, Sara; Wouters, Edwin; Ponnet, Koen; Van Damme, Joris; Maes, Lea; Van Hal, Guido

    2018-02-12

    Although alcohol is socially accepted in most Western societies, studies are clear about its associated negative consequences, especially among university and college students. Studies on the relationship between alcohol-related consequences and both beverage type and drinking onset, however, are scarce, especially in a European context. The aim of this research was, therefore, twofold: (1) What is the relationship between beverage type and the negative consequences experienced by students? and (2) Are these consequences determined by early drinking onset? We will examine these questions within the context of a wide range of alcohol-related consequences. The analyses are based on data collected by the inter-university project 'Head in the clouds?', measuring alcohol use among students in Flanders (Belgium). In total, a large dataset consisting of information from 19,253 anonymously participating students was available. Negative consequences were measured using a shortened version of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey (CADS_D). Data were analysed using negative binomial regression. Results vary depending on the type of alcohol-related consequences: Personal negative consequences occur frequently among daily beer drinkers. However, a high rate of social negative consequences was recorded for both daily beer drinkers and daily spirits drinkers. Finally, early drinking onset was significantly associated with both personal and social negative consequences, and this association was especially strong between beer and spirits drinking onset and social negative consequences. Numerous negative consequences, both personal and social, are related to frequent beer and spirits drinking. Our findings indicate a close association between drinking beer and personal negative consequences as well as between drinking beer and/or spirits and social negative consequences. Similarly, early drinking onset has a major influence on the rates of both personal and social negative consequences

  18. 24. Duplicate negative of an historic negative. 'AERIAL VIEW OF ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    24. Duplicate negative of an historic negative. 'AERIAL VIEW OF AREA 'B' HOLSTON ORDNANCE WORKS.' 1944. #OCMH 4-12.2ASAV3 in Super Explosives Program RDX and Its Composition A, B, & C, Record Group No. 319, National Archives, Washington, D.C. - Holston Army Ammunition Plant, RDX-and-Composition-B Manufacturing Line 9, Kingsport, Sullivan County, TN

  19. Causality, Nonlocality, and Negative Refraction.

    PubMed

    Forcella, Davide; Prada, Claire; Carminati, Rémi

    2017-03-31

    The importance of spatial nonlocality in the description of negative refraction in electromagnetic materials has been put forward recently. We develop a theory of negative refraction in homogeneous and isotropic media, based on first principles, and that includes nonlocality in its full generality. The theory shows that both dissipation and spatial nonlocality are necessary conditions for the existence of negative refraction. It also provides a sufficient condition in materials with weak spatial nonlocality. These fundamental results should have broad implications in the theoretical and practical analyses of negative refraction of electromagnetic and other kinds of waves.

  20. Negative ions of polyatomic molecules.

    PubMed Central

    Christophorou, L G

    1980-01-01

    In this paper general concepts relating to, and recent advances in, the study of negative ions of polyatomic molecules area discussed with emphasis on halocarbons. The topics dealt with in the paper are as follows: basic electron attachment processes, modes of electron capture by molecules, short-lived transient negative ions, dissociative electron attachment to ground-state molecules and to "hot" molecules (effects of temperature on electron attachment), parent negative ions, effect of density, nature, and state of the medium on electron attachment, electron attachment to electronically excited molecules, the binding of attached electrons to molecules ("electron affinity"), and the basic and the applied significance of negative-ion studies. PMID:7428744

  1. Obesity, diet quality and absenteeism in a working population.

    PubMed

    Fitzgerald, Sarah; Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Geaney, Fiona

    2016-12-01

    The relationship between workplace absenteeism and adverse lifestyle factors (smoking, physical inactivity and poor dietary patterns) remains ambiguous. Reliance on self-reported absenteeism and obesity measures may contribute to this uncertainty. Using objective absenteeism and health status measures, the present study aimed to investigate what health status outcomes and lifestyle factors influence workplace absenteeism. Cross-sectional data were obtained from a complex workplace dietary intervention trial, the Food Choice at Work Study. Four multinational manufacturing workplaces in Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants included 540 randomly selected employees from the four workplaces. Annual count absenteeism data were collected. Physical assessments included objective health status measures (BMI, midway waist circumference and blood pressure). FFQ measured diet quality from which DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) scores were constructed. A zero-inflated negative binomial (zinb) regression model examined associations between health status outcomes, lifestyle characteristics and absenteeism. The mean number of absences was 2·5 (sd 4·5) d. After controlling for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics, the zinb model indicated that absenteeism was positively associated with central obesity, increasing expected absence rate by 72 %. Consuming a high-quality diet and engaging in moderate levels of physical activity were negatively associated with absenteeism and reduced expected frequency by 50 % and 36 %, respectively. Being in a managerial/supervisory position also reduced expected frequency by 50 %. To reduce absenteeism, workplace health promotion policies should incorporate recommendations designed to prevent and manage excess weight, improve diet quality and increase physical activity levels of employees.

  2. Ascaris and hookworm transmission in preschool children from rural Panama: role of yard environment, soil eggs/larvae and hygiene and play behaviours.

    PubMed

    Krause, Rachel J; Koski, Kristine G; Pons, Emérita; Sandoval, Nidia; Sinisterra, Odalis; Scott, Marilyn E

    2015-10-01

    This study explored whether the yard environment and child hygiene and play behaviours were associated with presence and intensity of Ascaris and hookworm in preschool children and with eggs and larvae in soil. Data were collected using questionnaires, a visual survey of the yard, soil samples and fecal samples collected at baseline and following re-infection. The presence of eggs/larvae in soil was associated negatively with water storage (eggs) but positively with dogs (eggs) and distance from home to latrine (larvae). Baseline and re-infection prevalences were: hookworm (28.0%, 3.4%); Ascaris (16.9%, 9.5%); Trichuris (0.9%, 0.7%). Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed a higher baseline hookworm infection if yards had eggs or larvae, more vegetation or garbage, and if the child played with soil. Baseline Ascaris was associated with dirt floor, dogs, exposed soil in yard, open defecation and with less time playing outdoors, whereas Ascaris re-infection was associated with water storage, vegetation cover and garbage near the home and not playing with animals. Our results show complex interactions between infection, the yard environment and child behaviours, and indicate that transmission would be reduced if latrines were closer to the home, and if open defecation and water spillage were reduced.

  3. Physics of negative absolute temperatures.

    PubMed

    Abraham, Eitan; Penrose, Oliver

    2017-01-01

    Negative absolute temperatures were introduced into experimental physics by Purcell and Pound, who successfully applied this concept to nuclear spins; nevertheless, the concept has proved controversial: a recent article aroused considerable interest by its claim, based on a classical entropy formula (the "volume entropy") due to Gibbs, that negative temperatures violated basic principles of statistical thermodynamics. Here we give a thermodynamic analysis that confirms the negative-temperature interpretation of the Purcell-Pound experiments. We also examine the principal arguments that have been advanced against the negative temperature concept; we find that these arguments are not logically compelling, and moreover that the underlying "volume" entropy formula leads to predictions inconsistent with existing experimental results on nuclear spins. We conclude that, despite the counterarguments, negative absolute temperatures make good theoretical sense and did occur in the experiments designed to produce them.

  4. Three chamber negative ion source

    DOEpatents

    Leung, Ka-Ngo; Ehlers, Kenneth W.; Hiskes, John R.

    1985-01-01

    A negative ion vessel is divided into an excitation chamber, a negative ionization chamber and an extraction chamber by two magnetic filters. Input means introduces neutral molecules into a first chamber where a first electron discharge means vibrationally excites the molecules which migrate to a second chamber. In the second chamber a second electron discharge means ionizes the molecules, producing negative ions which are extracted into or by a third chamber. A first magnetic filter prevents high energy electrons from entering the negative ionization chamber from the excitation chamber. A second magnetic filter prevents high energy electrons from entering the extraction chamber from the negative ionizing chamber. An extraction grid at the end of the negative ion vessel attracts negative ions into the third chamber and accelerates them. Another grid, located adjacent to the extraction grid, carries a small positive voltage in order to inhibit positive ions from migrating into the extraction chamber and contour the plasma potential. Additional electrons can be suppressed from the output flux using ExB forces provided by magnetic field means and the extractor grid electric potential.

  5. Negative refraction in molybdenum disulfide.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wenhui; Cui, Xudong; Yang, Erchan; Fan, Quanping; Xiang, Bin

    2015-08-24

    Recently, negative refractions have been demonstrated in uniaxial crystals with no necessary of negative permittivity and permeability. However, the small anisotropy parameterγin the uniaxial crystals limits the negative refraction occurrence only in a small range of the incident light angle, retarding its practical applications. In this paper, we report negative refraction induced by a pronounced anisotropic behavior in the bulk MoS(2). Using the first-principles, the dielectric function and refractive index calculations confirm a uniaxial trait of MoS(2) with a calculated anisotropy parameterγlarger than 2.5 in the entire range of visible wavelength. The critical incident angle to trigger a negative refraction in the bulk MoS(2) is calculated up to 90°. The finite-difference time-domain simulations prove that the incident light with a density of 59.5% can be negatively refracted in a MoS(2) slab with a thickness of 0.1 µm. Our results open up a new pathway for MoS(2)-like materials to a novel field of optical integration.

  6. Ferroelectric negative capacitance domain dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Michael; Khan, Asif Islam; Serrao, Claudy; Lu, Zhongyuan; Salahuddin, Sayeef; Pešić, Milan; Slesazeck, Stefan; Schroeder, Uwe; Mikolajick, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Transient negative capacitance effects in epitaxial ferroelectric Pb(Zr0.2Ti0.8)O3 capacitors are investigated with a focus on the dynamical switching behavior governed by domain nucleation and growth. Voltage pulses are applied to a series connection of the ferroelectric capacitor and a resistor to directly measure the ferroelectric negative capacitance during switching. A time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau approach is used to investigate the underlying domain dynamics. The transient negative capacitance is shown to originate from reverse domain nucleation and unrestricted domain growth. However, with the onset of domain coalescence, the capacitance becomes positive again. The persistence of the negative capacitance state is therefore limited by the speed of domain wall motion. By changing the applied electric field, capacitor area or external resistance, this domain wall velocity can be varied predictably over several orders of magnitude. Additionally, detailed insights into the intrinsic material properties of the ferroelectric are obtainable through these measurements. A new method for reliable extraction of the average negative capacitance of the ferroelectric is presented. Furthermore, a simple analytical model is developed, which accurately describes the negative capacitance transient time as a function of the material properties and the experimental boundary conditions.

  7. Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in Ontario: a comparison of methods.

    PubMed

    Moineddin, Rahim; Meaney, Christopher; Agha, Mohammad; Zagorski, Brandon; Glazier, Richard Henry

    2011-08-19

    department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic. The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases. Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department

  8. Food Insecurity and Health Care Expenditures in the United States, 2011-2013.

    PubMed

    Berkowitz, Seth A; Basu, Sanjay; Meigs, James B; Seligman, Hilary K

    2018-06-01

    To determine whether food insecurity, limited or uncertain food access owing to cost, is associated with greater health care expenditures. Nationally representative sample of the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the United States (2011 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS] linked to 2012-2013 Medication Expenditure Panel Survey [MEPS]). Longitudinal retrospective cohort. A total of 16,663 individuals underwent assessment of food insecurity, using the 10-item adult 30-day food security module, in the 2011 NHIS. Their total health care expenditures in 2012 and 2013 were recorded in MEPS. Expenditure data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression and adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, income, insurance, and residence area. Fourteen percent of individuals reported food insecurity, representing 41,616,255 Americans. Mean annualized total expenditures were $4,113 (standard error $115); 9.2 percent of all individuals had no health care expenditures. In multivariable analyses, those with food insecurity had significantly greater estimated mean annualized health care expenditures ($6,072 vs. $4,208, p < .0001), an extra $1,863 in health care expenditure per year, or $77.5 billion in additional health care expenditure annually. Food insecurity was associated with greater subsequent health care expenditures. Future studies should determine whether food insecurity interventions can improve health and reduce health care costs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  9. Out-of-pocket expenditures for pharmaceuticals: lessons from the Austrian household budget survey.

    PubMed

    Sanwald, Alice; Theurl, Engelbert

    2017-05-01

    Paying pharmaceuticals out of pocket is an important source of financing pharmaceutical consumption. Only limited empirical knowledge is available on the determinants of these expenditures. In this article we analyze which characteristics of private households influence out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditure (OOPPE) in Austria. We use cross-sectional information on OOPPE and household characteristics provided by the Austrian household budget survey 2009/10. We split pharmaceutical expenditures into the two components prescription fees and over-the-counter (OTC) expenditures. To adjust for the specific characteristics of the data, we compare different econometric approaches: a two-part model, hurdle model, generalized linear model and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. The finally selected econometric approaches give a quite consistent picture. The probability of expenditures of both types is strongly influenced by the household structure. It increases with age, doctoral visits and the presence of a female householder. The education level and income only increase the probability of OTC pharmaceuticals. The level of OTC expenditures remains widely unexplained while the household structure and age influence the expenditures for prescription fees. Insurance characteristics of private households, either private or public, play a minor role in explaining the expenditure levels in all specifications. This refers to a homogeneous and comprehensive provision of pharmaceuticals in the public part of the Austrian health care system. The article gives useful insights into the determinants of pharmaceutical expenditures of private households and supplements the previous research that focuses on the individual level.

  10. A mixed methods approach to exploring the relationship between Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) abundance and features of the urban environment in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada.

    PubMed

    Himsworth, Chelsea G; Parsons, Kirbee L; Feng, Alice Y T; Kerr, Thomas; Jardine, Claire M; Patrick, David M

    2014-01-01

    Urban rats (Rattus spp.) are among the most ubiquitous pest species in the world. Previous research has shown that rat abundance is largely determined by features of the environment; however, the specific urban environmental factors that influence rat population density within cities have yet to be clearly identified. Additionally, there are no well described tools or methodologies for conducting an in-depth evaluation of the relationship between urban rat abundance and the environment. In this study, we developed a systematic environmental observation tool using methods borrowed from the field of systematic social observation. This tool, which employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, was then used to identify environmental factors associated with the relative abundance of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada. Using a multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial model, we found that a variety of factors, including specific land use, building condition, and amount of refuse, were related to rat presence and abundance. Qualitative data largely supported and further clarified observed statistical relationships, but also identified conflicting and unique situations not easily captured through quantitative methods. Overall, the tool helped us to better understand the relationship between features of the urban environment and relative rat abundance within our study area and may useful for studying environmental determinants of zoonotic disease prevalence/distribution among urban rat populations in the future.

  11. A Mixed Methods Approach to Exploring the Relationship between Norway Rat (Rattus norvegicus) Abundance and Features of the Urban Environment in an Inner-City Neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Himsworth, Chelsea G.; Parsons, Kirbee L.; Feng, Alice Y. T.; Kerr, Thomas; Jardine, Claire M.; Patrick, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Urban rats (Rattus spp.) are among the most ubiquitous pest species in the world. Previous research has shown that rat abundance is largely determined by features of the environment; however, the specific urban environmental factors that influence rat population density within cities have yet to be clearly identified. Additionally, there are no well described tools or methodologies for conducting an in-depth evaluation of the relationship between urban rat abundance and the environment. In this study, we developed a systematic environmental observation tool using methods borrowed from the field of systematic social observation. This tool, which employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, was then used to identify environmental factors associated with the relative abundance of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada. Using a multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial model, we found that a variety of factors, including specific land use, building condition, and amount of refuse, were related to rat presence and abundance. Qualitative data largely supported and further clarified observed statistical relationships, but also identified conflicting and unique situations not easily captured through quantitative methods. Overall, the tool helped us to better understand the relationship between features of the urban environment and relative rat abundance within our study area and may useful for studying environmental determinants of zoonotic disease prevalence/distribution among urban rat populations in the future. PMID:24830847

  12. Accounting for the daily locations visited in the study of the built environment correlates of recreational walking (the RECORD Cohort Study).

    PubMed

    Perchoux, Camille; Kestens, Yan; Brondeel, Ruben; Chaix, Basile

    2015-12-01

    Understanding how built environment characteristics influence recreational walking is of the utmost importance to develop population-level strategies to increase levels of physical activity in a sustainable manner. This study analyzes the residential and non-residential environmental correlates of recreational walking, using precisely geocoded activity space data. The point-based locations regularly visited by 4365 participants of the RECORD Cohort Study (Residential Environment and CORonary heart Disease) were collected between 2011 and 2013 in the Paris region using the VERITAS software (Visualization and Evaluation of Regular Individual Travel destinations and Activity Spaces). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were used to investigate associations between both residential and non-residential environmental exposure and overall self-reported recreational walking over 7 days. Density of destinations, presence of a lake or waterway, and neighborhood education were associated with an increase in the odds of reporting any recreational walking time. Only the density of destinations was associated with an increase in time spent walking for recreational purpose. Considering the recreational locations visited (i.e., sports and cultural destinations) in addition to the residential neighborhood in the calculation of exposure improved the model fit and increased the environment-walking associations, compared to a model accounting only for the residential space (Akaike Information Criterion equal to 52797 compared to 52815). Creating an environment supportive to walking around recreational locations may particularly stimulate recreational walking among people willing to use these facilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Violent Injury and Neighborhood Racial/Ethnic Diversity in Oakland, California.

    PubMed

    Berezin, Joshua; Gale, Sara; Nuru-Jeter, Amani; Lahiff, Maureen; Auerswald, Colette; Alter, Harrison

    2017-12-01

    Racial and ethnic segregation has been linked to a number of deleterious health outcomes, including violence. Previous studies of segregation and violence have focused on segregation between African Americans and Whites, used homicide as a measure of violence, and employed segregation measures that fail to take into account neighborhood level processes. We examined the relationship between neighborhood diversity and violent injury in Oakland, California. Violent injuries from the Alameda County Medical Center Trauma Registry that occurred between 1998 and 2002 were geocoded. A local measure of diversity among African American, White, Hispanic, and Asian populations that captured interactions across census block group boundaries was calculated from 2000 U.S. Census data and a Geographic Information System. The relationship between violent injuries and neighborhood level of diversity, adjusted for covariates, was analyzed with zero-inflated negative binomial regression. There was a significant and inverse association between level of racial and ethnic diversity and rate of violent injury (IRR 0.30; 95% CI: 0.13-0.69). There was a similar relationship between diversity and violent injury for predominantly African American block groups (IRR 0.23; 95% CI: 0.08-0.62) and predominantly Hispanic block groups (IRR 0.08; 95% CI: 0.01-0.76). Diversity was not significantly associated with violent injury in predominantly White or Asian block groups. Block group racial and ethnic diversity is associated with lower rates of violent injury, particularly for predominantly African American and Hispanic block groups.

  14. Gambling frequency and symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in relation to problem gambling among Swedish adolescents: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Hellström, Charlotta; Wagner, Philippe; Nilsson, Kent W; Leppert, Jerzy; Åslund, Cecilia

    2017-06-01

    To investigate the associations between gambling frequency, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, and problem gambling among adolescent boys and girls. One hypothesis was that adolescents with increased ADHD symptoms have a higher frequency of gambling compared to adolescents with fewer ADHD symptoms. A population-based sample of adolescents (aged 15-18 years) completed a questionnaire on demographics, gambling habits, ADHD symptoms, and problematic gambling; 1412 adolescents (from 4440 sampled) with gambling experience were included in the final sample. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis revealed that increased ADHD symptoms, higher gambling frequency, and higher age were associated with lower odds for being non-susceptible to gambling problems. Moreover, gambling frequency interacted with ADHD symptoms in predicting probability of being non-susceptible to gambling problems. However, when analysing those already susceptible to problem gambling, ADHD symptoms did not modify the effect of gambling frequency on the expected magnitude of gambling problems. In susceptible individuals, problem gambling increased with both increased ADHD symptoms and increased gambling frequency, but the level of problems due to gambling frequency did not change depending on the ADHD symptom level. There was an interaction effect between sex and gambling frequency in relation to gambling problems. Adolescents with ADHD symptoms seem to be more sensitive to gambling, in terms of being susceptible to developing gambling problems. However, once susceptible, adolescents with ADHD symptoms are affected by gambling frequency similarly to other susceptible participants.

  15. Socioeconomic inequalities in dental caries and their determinants in adolescents in New Delhi, India.

    PubMed

    Mathur, Manu Raj; Tsakos, Georgios; Millett, Christopher; Arora, Monika; Watt, Richard

    2014-12-12

    To determine whether socioeconomic inequalities are correlated to dental caries experience and decayed teeth of Indian adolescents, and assess whether behavioural and psychosocial factors mediate this association. Cross-sectional study of 1386 adolescents living in three diverse areas of New Delhi. Caries experience and number of decayed teeth were assessed clinically and a questionnaire was used to gather sociodemographic and psychosocial data. Zero Inflated Negative Binomial regression models were used to assess the relationship between the outcomes (caries experience and decayed teeth) and area of residence, adjusting for covariates. Significant inequalities in caries experience and number of decayed teeth were observed. Odds of an adolescent being caries free decreased by 66% (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.49) and 70% (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.43) in adolescents living in resettlement communities or urban slums, respectively, when compared with the middle class group. No difference was observed among those with caries experience/decayed teeth. Adjusting for covariates did not affect the inequalities. Area of residence appears to be a very strong and significant determinant for an adolescent to be caries/decay free in India. Psychosocial and behavioural factors do not mediate the association between area of residence and oral health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Is there an Appalachian disparity in dental caries in Pennsylvania schoolchildren?

    PubMed

    Polk, Deborah E; Kim, Sunghee; Manz, Michael; Weyant, Robert J

    2015-02-01

    To determine whether there is an Appalachian disparity in caries prevalence or extent in children living in Pennsylvania. We conducted a cross-sectional clinical assessment of caries in a sample representing 1st, 3rd, 9th, and 11th grade students across Pennsylvania. We used logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression controlling for age to examine the association of residence in an Appalachian county with caries prevalence and extent in the primary and permanent dentitions. Compared with children living outside Appalachia, more children living in Appalachia had a dft >0 (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.07-1.76) and more had a DMFT >0 (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.06-1.64). In addition, compared with children living outside Appalachia, children living in Appalachia had a greater primary but not permanent caries extent (IRR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.01-1.19). We found Appalachian disparities in caries prevalence in both the primary and permanent dentitions and an Appalachian disparity in caries extent in the primary dentition. None of the disparities was moderated by age. This suggests that the search for the mechanism or mechanisms for the Appalachian disparities should focus on differential exposures to risk factors occurring prior to and at the start of elementary school. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Serious psychological distress as a barrier to dental care in community-dwelling adults in the United States.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Xiaoling; Lee, Wonik; Kang, Sung-wan

    2015-01-01

    To examine whether serious psychological distress (SPD), a nonspecific indicator of past year mental health problems, was associated with subsequent dental care utilization, dental expenditures, and unmet dental needs. We analyzed data from panel 13 thru 15 of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey -Household Component (n=31,056). SPD was defined as a score of 13 or higher on the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6). Logistic regression, zero-inflated negative binomial model, and generalized linear model (GLM) with a gamma distribution were used to test the study hypotheses. Adults with SPD had, in the subsequent year, 35 percent lower odds of adhering to annual dental checkups and a twofold increase in the odds of having unmet dental needs. Although adults with SPD did not have significantly more dental visits than those without SPD, they spent 20 percent more on dental care. SPD was a modest independent risk factor for lack of subsequent preventive dental care, greater unmet dental needs, and greater dental expenditures. In addition to expanding adult dental coverage, it is important to develop and evaluate interventions to increase the utilization of dental care particularly preventive dental services among people with mental illness in order to improve oral health and reduce dental expenditures among this vulnerable population. © 2014 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  18. Intimate partner violence and women's economic and non-economic activities in Minya, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Yount, Kathryn M; Zureick-Brown, Sarah; salem, Rania

    2014-06-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is widespread, but its implications for their economic and non-economic activities are understudied. Leveraging new data from 564 ever-married women aged 22–65 in rural Minya, Egypt, we estimated logistic regressions and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions to test spillover, compensation, and patriarchal bargaining theories about the influences of women's exposure to IPV on their engagement in and time spent on market, subsistence, domestic, and care work. Supporting compensation theory, exposures to lifetime, recent, and chronic physical or sexual IPV were associated with higher adjusted odds of performing market work in the prior month, and exposures to recent and chronic IPV were associated with higher adjusted odds of performing subsistence work in this period. Supporting compensation and patriarchal bargaining theories, exposures to recent and chronic IPV were associated with more time spent on domestic work in the prior day. Supporting spillover and patriarchal bargaining theories, exposures to lifetime IPV of all forms were associated with lower adjusted odds of performing mostly nonspousal care work in the prior day, and this association was partially mediated by women's generalized anxiety. Women in rural Minya who are exposed to IPV may escalate their housework to fulfill local norms of feminine domesticity while substituting economic activities for nonspousal care work to enhance their economic independence from violent partners.

  19. Value-based purchasing and hospital acquired conditions: are we seeing improvement?

    PubMed

    Spaulding, Aaron; Zhao, Mei; Haley, D Rob

    2014-12-01

    To determine if the Value-Based Purchasing Performance Scoring system correlates with hospital acquired condition quality indicators. This study utilizes the following secondary data sources: the American Hospital Association (AHA) annual survey and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) Value-Based Purchasing and Hospital Acquired Conditions databases. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to examine the effect of CMS total performance score on counts of hospital acquired conditions. Hospital structure variables including size, ownership, teaching status, payer mix, case mix, and location were utilized as control variables. The secondary data sources were merged into a single database using Stata 10. Total performance scores, which are used to determine if hospitals should receive incentive money, do not correlate well with quality outcome in the form of hospital acquired conditions. Value-based purchasing does not appear to correlate with improved quality and patient safety as indicated by Hospital Acquired Condition (HAC) scores. This leads us to believe that either the total performance score does not measure what it should, or the quality outcome measurements do not reflect the quality of the total performance scores measure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Current hormonal contraceptive use predicts female extra-pair and dyadic sexual behavior: evidence based on Czech National Survey data.

    PubMed

    Klapilová, Kateřina; Cobey, Kelly D; Wells, Timothy; Roberts, S Craig; Weiss, Petr; Havlíček, Jan

    2014-01-10

    Data from 1155 Czech women (493 using oral contraception, 662 non-users), obtained from the Czech National Survey of Sexual Behavior, were used to investigate evolutionary-based hypotheses concerning the predictive value of current oral contraceptive (OC) use on extra-pair and dyadic (in-pair) sexual behavior of coupled women. Specifically, the aim was to determine whether current OC use was associated with lower extra-pair and higher in-pair sexual interest and behavior, because OC use suppresses cyclical shifts in mating psychology that occur in normally cycling women. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and negative binomial models were used to test associations between OC use and these sexual measures, controlling for other relevant predictors (e.g., age, parity, in-pair sexual satisfaction, relationship length). The overall incidence of having had an extra-pair partner or one-night stand in the previous year was not related to current OC use (the majority of the sample had not). However, among the women who had engaged in extra-pair sexual behavior, OC users had fewer one-night stands than non-users, and tended to have fewer partners, than non-users. OC users also had more frequent dyadic intercourse than non-users, potentially indicating higher commitment to their current relationship. These results suggest that suppression of fertility through OC use may alter important aspects of female sexual behavior, with potential implications for relationship functioning and stability.

  1. Predictors of birth-related post-traumatic stress symptoms: secondary analysis of a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Furuta, Marie; Sandall, Jane; Cooper, Derek; Bick, Debra

    2016-12-01

    This study aimed to identify factors associated with birth-related post-traumatic stress symptoms during the early postnatal period. Secondary analysis was conducted using data from a prospective cohort study of 1824 women who gave birth in one large hospital in England. Post-traumatic stress symptoms were measured by the Impact of Event Scale at 6 to 8 weeks postpartum. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for analyses. Results showed that post-traumatic stress symptoms were more frequently observed in black women and in women who had a higher pre-pregnancy BMI compared to those with a lower BMI. Women who have a history of mental illness as well as those who gave birth before arriving at the hospital, underwent an emergency caesarean section or experienced severe maternal morbidity or neonatal complications also showed symptoms. Women's perceived control during labour and birth significantly reduced the effects of some risk factors. A higher level of perceived social support during the postnatal period also reduced the risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms. From the perspective of clinical practice, improving women's sense of control during labour and birth appears to be important, as does providing social support following the birth.

  2. Volunteerism: Social Network Dynamics and Education

    PubMed Central

    Ajrouch, Kristine J.; Antonucci, Toni C.; Webster, Noah J.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives . We examine how changes in social networks influence volunteerism through bridging (diversity) and bonding (spending time) mechanisms. We further investigate whether social network change substitutes or amplifies the effects of education on volunteerism. Methods . Data (n = 543) are drawn from a two-wave survey of Social Relations and Health over the Life Course (SRHLC). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were conducted to test competing hypotheses about how changes in social network characteristics alone and in conjunction with education level predict likelihood and frequency of volunteering. Results . Changes in social networks were associated with volunteerism: as the proportion of family members decreased and the average number of network members living within a one-hour drive increased over time, participants reported higher odds of volunteering. The substitution hypothesis was supported: social networks that exhibited more geographic proximity and greater contact frequency over-time compensated for lower levels of education to predict volunteering more hours. Discussion . The dynamic role of social networks and the ways in which they may work through bridging and bonding to influence both likelihood and frequency of volunteering are discussed. The potential benefits of volunteerism in light of longer life expectancies and smaller families are also considered. PMID:25512570

  3. Impact of Illness Management and Recovery Programs on Hospital and Emergency Room Use by Medicaid Enrollees

    PubMed Central

    Salyers, Michelle P.; Rollins, Angela L.; Clendenning, Daniel; McGuire, Alan B.; Kim, Edward

    2011-01-01

    Objective Illness management and recovery is a structured program that helps consumers with severe mental illness learn effective ways to manage illness and pursue recovery goals. This study examined the impact of the program on health service utilization. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of five assertive community treatment (ACT) teams in Indiana that implemented illness management and recovery. With Medicaid claims data from July 1, 2003, to June 30, 2008, panel data were created with person-months as the level of analysis, resulting in 14,261 observations, for a total of 498 unique individuals. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to predict hospitalization days and emergency room visits, including covariates of demographic characteristics, employment status, psychiatric diagnosis, and concurrent substance use disorder. The main predictor variables of interest were receipt of illness management and recovery services, dropout from the program, and program graduation status. Results Consumers who received some illness management and recovery services had fewer hospitalization days than those receiving only ACT. Graduates had fewer emergency room visits than did ACT-only consumers. Conclusions This is the first study to examine the impact of illness management and recovery on service utilization. Controlling for a number of background variables, the study showed that illness management and recovery programs were associated with reduced inpatient hospitalization and emergency room use over and above ACT. PMID:21532077

  4. The Association Between Mild Intraoperative Hypotension and Stroke in General Surgery Patients.

    PubMed

    Hsieh, Jason K; Dalton, Jarrod E; Yang, Dongsheng; Farag, Ehab S; Sessler, Daniel I; Kurz, Andrea M

    2016-10-01

    Intraoperative hypotension may contribute to perioperative strokes. We therefore tested the hypothesis that intraoperative hypotension is associated with perioperative stroke. After institutional review board approval for this case-control study, we identified patients who had nonneurological, noncardiac, and noncarotid surgery under general anesthesia at the Cleveland Clinic between 2005 and 2011 and experienced a postoperative stroke. Control patients not experiencing postoperative stroke were matched in a 4-to-1 ratio using propensity scores and restriction to the same procedure type as stroke patients. The association between intraoperative hypotension, measured as time-integrated area under a mean arterial pressure (MAP) of 70 mm Hg, and postoperative stroke was assessed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Among 106 337 patients meeting inclusion criteria, we identified 120 who had confirmed postoperative stroke events based on manual chart review. Four-to-one propensity matching yielded a final matched sample of 104 stroke cases and 398 controls. There was no association between stroke and intraoperative hypotension. Stroke patients were not more likely than controls to have been hypotensive (odds ratio, 0.49 [0.18-1.38]), and among patients with intraoperative hypotension, stroke patients did not experience a greater degree of hypotension than controls (ratio of geometric means, 1.07 [0.76-1.53]). In our propensity score-matched case-control study, we did not find an association between intraoperative hypotension, defined as MAP < 70 mm Hg, and postoperative stroke.

  5. An integrated model for detecting significant chromatin interactions from high-resolution Hi-C data

    PubMed Central

    Carty, Mark; Zamparo, Lee; Sahin, Merve; González, Alvaro; Pelossof, Raphael; Elemento, Olivier; Leslie, Christina S.

    2017-01-01

    Here we present HiC-DC, a principled method to estimate the statistical significance (P values) of chromatin interactions from Hi-C experiments. HiC-DC uses hurdle negative binomial regression account for systematic sources of variation in Hi-C read counts—for example, distance-dependent random polymer ligation and GC content and mappability bias—and model zero inflation and overdispersion. Applied to high-resolution Hi-C data in a lymphoblastoid cell line, HiC-DC detects significant interactions at the sub-topologically associating domain level, identifying potential structural and regulatory interactions supported by CTCF binding sites, DNase accessibility, and/or active histone marks. CTCF-associated interactions are most strongly enriched in the middle genomic distance range (∼700 kb–1.5 Mb), while interactions involving actively marked DNase accessible elements are enriched both at short (<500 kb) and longer (>1.5 Mb) genomic distances. There is a striking enrichment of longer-range interactions connecting replication-dependent histone genes on chromosome 6, potentially representing the chromatin architecture at the histone locus body. PMID:28513628

  6. Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2016-01-01

    Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling. PMID:27322306

  7. Peritraumatic tonic immobility is associated with PTSD symptom severity in Brazilian police officers: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Maia, Deborah B; Nóbrega, Augusta; Marques-Portella, Carla; Mendlowicz, Mauro V; Volchan, Eliane; Coutinho, Evandro S; Figueira, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    Peritraumatic reactions feature prominently among the main predictors for development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Peritraumatic tonic immobility (PTI), a less investigated but equally important type of peritraumatic response, has been recently attracting the attention of researchers and clinicians for its close association with traumatic reactions and PTSD. Our objective was to investigate the role of PTI, peritraumatic panic, and dissociation as predictors of PTSD symptoms in a cohort of police recruits (n=132). Participants were asked to complete the following questionnaires during academy training and after the first year of work: Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist - Civilian Version (PCL-C), Physical Reactions Subscale (PRS), Peritraumatic Dissociative Experiences Questionnaire (PDEQ), Tonic Immobility Scale (TIS), and Critical Incident History Questionnaire. Employing a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model, we found that each additional point in the TIS was associated with a 9% increment in PCL-C mean scores (RM = 1.09), whereas for PRS, the increment was 7% (RM = 1.07). As the severity of peritraumatic dissociation increased one point in the PDEQ, the chance of having at least one symptom in the PCL-C increased 22% (OR = 1.22). Our findings highlight the need to expand investigation on the incidence and impact of PTI on the mental health of police officers.

  8. Cariogenicity of soft drinks, milk and fruit juice in low-income african-american children: a longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Lim, Sungwoo; Sohn, Woosung; Burt, Brian A; Sandretto, Anita M; Kolker, Justine L; Marshall, Teresa A; Ismail, Amid I

    2008-07-01

    The authors conducted a study to test the hypothesis that high consumption of soft drinks, relative to milk and 100 percent fruit juice, is a risk factor for dental caries in low-income African-American children in Detroit. Trained dentists and interviewers examined a representative sample of 369 children, aged 3 to 5 years, in 2002-2003 and again two years later. The authors used the 2000 Block Kids Food Frequency Questionnaire (NutritionQuest, Berkeley, Calif.) to collect dietary information. They assessed caries by using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System. Soft drinks, 100 percent fruit juice and milk represented the sugared beverages consumed by the cohort. A cluster analysis of the relative proportion of each drink at baseline and follow-up revealed four consumption patterns. Using zero-inflated negative binomial models, the authors found that children who changed from being low consumers of soft drinks at baseline to high consumers after two years had a 1.75 times higher mean number of new decayed, missing and filled tooth surfaces compared with low consumers of soft drinks at both time points. Children who consumed more soft drinks, relative to milk and 100 percent fruit juice, as they grew older were at a greater risk of developing dental caries. Health promotion programs and health care providers should emphasize to patients and caregivers the caries risk associated with consumption of soft drinks.

  9. Health care usage among immigrants and native-born elderly populations in eleven European countries: results from SHARE

    PubMed Central

    Guillén, Montserrat; Crimmins, Eileen M.

    2013-01-01

    Differences in health care utilization of immigrants 50 years of age and older relative to the native-born populations in eleven European countries are investigated. Negative binomial and zero-inflated Poisson regression are used to examine differences between immigrants and native-borns in number of doctor visits, visits to general practitioners, and hospital stays using the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe database. In the pooled European sample and in some individual countries, older immigrants use from 13 to 20% more health services than native-borns after demographic characteristics are controlled. After controlling for the need for health care, differences between immigrants and native-borns in the use of physicians, but not hospitals, are reduced by about half. These are not changed much with the incorporation of indicators of socioeconomic status and extra insurance coverage. Higher country-level relative expenditures on health, paying physicians a fee-for-service, and physician density are associated with higher usage of physician services among immigrants. PMID:21660564

  10. Secondhand smoke exposure in the workplace.

    PubMed

    Skeer, Margie; Cheng, Debbie M; Rigotti, Nancy A; Siegel, Michael

    2005-05-01

    Currently, there is little understanding of the relationship between the strength of workplace smoking policies and the likelihood and duration, not just the likelihood, of exposure to secondhand smoke at work. This study assessed self-reported exposure to secondhand smoke at work in hours per week among a cross-sectional sample of 3650 Massachusetts adults who were employed primarily at a single worksite outside the home that was not mainly outdoors. The sample data were from a larger longitudinal study designed to examine the effect of community-based tobacco control interventions on adult and youth smoking behavior. Participants were identified through a random-digit-dialing telephone survey. Multiple logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the independent effect of workplace smoking policies on the likelihood and duration of exposure to secondhand smoke. Compared to employees whose workplace banned smoking completely, those whose workplace provided designated smoking areas had 2.9 times the odds of being exposed to secondhand smoke and 1.74 times the duration of exposure, while those with no restrictions had 10.27 times the odds of being exposed and 6.34 times the duration of exposure. Workplace smoking policies substantially reduce the likelihood of self-reported secondhand smoke exposure among employees in the workplace and also greatly affect the duration of exposure.

  11. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

  12. Mental illness in bariatric surgery: A cohort study from the PORTAL network.

    PubMed

    Fisher, David; Coleman, Karen J; Arterburn, David E; Fischer, Heidi; Yamamoto, Ayae; Young, Deborah R; Sherwood, Nancy E; Trinacty, Connie Mah; Lewis, Kristina H

    2017-05-01

    To compare bariatric surgery outcomes according to preoperative mental illness category. Electronic health record data from several US healthcare systems were used to compare outcomes of four groups of patients who underwent bariatric surgery in 2012 and 2013. These included the following: people with (1) no mental illness, (2) mild-to-moderate depression or anxiety, (3) severe depression or anxiety, and (4) bipolar, psychosis, or schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Groups were compared on weight loss trajectory using generalized estimating equations using B-spline bases and on all-cause emergency department visits and hospital days using zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial regression up to 2 years after surgery. Models were adjusted for demographic and health covariates, including baseline healthcare use. Among 8,192 patients, mean age was 44.3 (10.7) years, 79.9% were female, and 45.6% were white. Fifty-seven percent had preoperative mental illness. There were no differences between groups for weight loss, but patients with preoperative severe depression or anxiety or bipolar, psychosis, or schizophrenia spectrum disorders had higher follow-up levels of emergency department visits and hospital days compared to those with no mental illness. In this multicenter study, mental illness was not associated with differential weight loss after bariatric surgery, but additional research could focus on reducing acute care use among these patients. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  13. Health services utilization of people having and not having a regular doctor in Canada.

    PubMed

    Thanh, Nguyen Xuan; Rapoport, John

    2017-04-01

    Canada having a universal health insurance plan that provides hospital and physician benefits offers a natural experiment of whether continuity of care actually provides lower or higher utilization of services. The question we are evaluating is whether Canadians, who have a regular physician, use more health resources than those who do not have one? Using two statistical methods, including propensity score matching and zero-inflated negative binomial regression, we analyzed data from the 2010 and 2007/2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys separately to document differences between people self-reportedly having and not having a regular doctor in the utilization of general practitioner, specialist, and hospital services. The results showed, consistently for all two statistical methods and two datasets used, that people reportedly having a regular doctor used more healthcare services than a matched group of people who was self-reportedly not having a regular doctor. For specialist and hospital utilization, the statistically significant differences were in the likelihood if the service was used but not in the number of specialist visits or hospital nights among users. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Volunteerism: Social Network Dynamics and Education.

    PubMed

    Ajrouch, Kristine J; Antonucci, Toni C; Webster, Noah J

    2016-03-01

    . We examine how changes in social networks influence volunteerism through bridging (diversity) and bonding (spending time) mechanisms. We further investigate whether social network change substitutes or amplifies the effects of education on volunteerism. . Data (n = 543) are drawn from a two-wave survey of Social Relations and Health over the Life Course (SRHLC). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were conducted to test competing hypotheses about how changes in social network characteristics alone and in conjunction with education level predict likelihood and frequency of volunteering. . Changes in social networks were associated with volunteerism: as the proportion of family members decreased and the average number of network members living within a one-hour drive increased over time, participants reported higher odds of volunteering. The substitution hypothesis was supported: social networks that exhibited more geographic proximity and greater contact frequency over-time compensated for lower levels of education to predict volunteering more hours. . The dynamic role of social networks and the ways in which they may work through bridging and bonding to influence both likelihood and frequency of volunteering are discussed. The potential benefits of volunteerism in light of longer life expectancies and smaller families are also considered. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Modeling Forest Fire Occurrences Using Count-Data Mixed Models in Qiannan Autonomous Prefecture of Guizhou Province in China

    PubMed Central

    Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence. PMID:25790309

  16. Are star formation rates of galaxies bimodal?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldmann, Robert

    2017-09-01

    Star formation rate (SFR) distributions of galaxies are often assumed to be bimodal with modes corresponding to star-forming and quiescent galaxies, respectively. Both classes of galaxies are typically studied separately, and SFR distributions of star-forming galaxies are commonly modelled as lognormals. Using both observational data and results from numerical simulations, I argue that this division into star-forming and quiescent galaxies is unnecessary from a theoretical point of view and that the SFR distributions of the whole population can be well fitted by zero-inflated negative binomial distributions. This family of distributions has three parameters that determine the average SFR of the galaxies in the sample, the scatter relative to the star-forming sequence and the fraction of galaxies with zero SFRs, respectively. The proposed distributions naturally account for (I) the discrete nature of star formation, (II) the presence of 'dead' galaxies with zero SFRs and (III) asymmetric scatter. Excluding 'dead' galaxies, the distribution of log SFR is unimodal with a peak at the star-forming sequence and an extended tail towards low SFRs. However, uncertainties and biases in the SFR measurements can create the appearance of a bimodal distribution.

  17. Race, Sex, and Discrimination in School Settings: A Multilevel Analysis of Associations With Delinquency.

    PubMed

    Chambers, Brittany D; Erausquin, Jennifer Toller

    2018-02-01

    Adolescence is a critical phase of development and experimentation with delinquent behaviors. There is a growing body of literature exploring individual and structural impacts of discrimination on health outcomes and delinquent behaviors. However, there is limited research assessing how school diversity and discrimination impact students' delinquent behaviors. In response, the purpose of this study was to assess if individual- and school-level indicators of discrimination and diversity were associated with student delinquent behaviors among African American and White students. We analyzed Wave I (1994-1995) data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Our analysis was limited to 8947 African American and White students (73% White, 48% male, and 88% parent ≥ high school education). We used multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial regression to test the association of individual- and school characteristics and discrimination with the number of self-reported delinquent behaviors. Race, sex, perceived peer inclusion, and teacher discrimination were predictors of students' delinquent behaviors. The average school perceived peer inclusion and percentage of African Americans in teaching roles were associated with delinquent behaviors. Findings from this study highlight the potential for intervention at the interpersonal and school levels to reduce delinquency among African American and White students. © 2018, American School Health Association.

  18. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile.

    PubMed

    Oyarte, Marcela; Delgado, Iris; Pedrero, Víctor; Agar, Lorenzo; Cabieses, Báltica

    2018-04-09

    To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%), and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%). We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans). In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i) lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii) digestive organs, and (iii) breast cancer. Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

  19. Effects of early dental office visits on dental caries experience.

    PubMed

    Beil, Heather; Rozier, R Gary; Preisser, John S; Stearns, Sally C; Lee, Jessica Y

    2014-10-01

    We determined the association between timing of a first dentist office visit before age 5 years and dental disease in kindergarten. We used North Carolina Medicaid claims (1999-2006) linked to state oral health surveillance data to compare caries experience for kindergarten students (2005-2006) who had a visit before age 60 months (n=11,394) to derive overall exposure effects from a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. We repeated the analysis separately for children who had preventive and tertiary visits. Children who had a visit at age 37 to 48 and 49 to 60 months had significantly less disease than children with a visit by age 24 months (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.81, 0.95; IRR=0.75; 95% CI=0.69, 0.82, respectively). Disease status did not differ between children who had a tertiary visit by age 24 months and other children. Medicaid-enrolled children in our study followed an urgent care type of utilization, and access to dental care was limited. Children at high risk for dental disease should be given priority for a preventive dental visit before age 3 years.

  20. Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas.

    PubMed

    Zahran, Sammy; Brody, Samuel D; Peacock, Walter Gillis; Vedlitz, Arnold; Grover, Himanshu

    2008-12-01

    Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.

  1. Is There an Appalachian Disparity in Dental Caries in Pennsylvania Schoolchildren?

    PubMed Central

    Polk, Deborah E.; Kim, Sunghee; Manz, Michael; Weyant, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To determine whether there is an Appalachian disparity in caries prevalence or extent in children living in Pennsylvania. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional clinical assessment of caries in a sample representing 1st, 3rd, 9th, and 11th grade students across Pennsylvania. We used logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression controlling for age to examine the association of residence in an Appalachian county with caries prevalence and extent in the primary and permanent dentitions. Results Compared with children living outside Appalachia, more children living in Appalachia had a dft > 0 (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.07 – 1.76) and more had a DMFT > 0 (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.06 – 1.64). In addition, compared with children living outside Appalachia, children living in Appalachia had a greater primary but not permanent caries extent (IRR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.01 – 1.19). Conclusions We found Appalachian disparities in caries prevalence in both the primary and permanent dentitions and an Appalachian disparity in caries extent in the primary dentition. None of the disparities was moderated by age. This suggests that the search for the mechanism or mechanisms for the Appalachian disparities should focus on differential exposures to risk factors occurring prior to and at the start of elementary school. PMID:25470650

  2. Workplace mistreatment and sickness absenteeism from work: results from the 2010 National Health Interview survey.

    PubMed

    Asfaw, Abay G; Chang, Chia C; Ray, Tapas K

    2014-02-01

    This study examined the association between workplace mistreatment and occurrence, duration, and costs of sickness absenteeism. We used the 2010 National Health Interview Survey and considered 13,807 employed adult respondents. We used a zero-inflated negative binomial (zinb) model to examine the association between exposure to workplace mistreatment and the occurrence and number of workdays missed due to illness/injury in the preceding 12 months. In 2010, 7.6% of US workers employed at the time of the survey reported having been mistreated at their workplace. Both occurrence and duration of sickness absence were higher for mistreated than for non-mistreated workers. The zinb results showed that being mistreated was associated with a 42% increase in the number of missed workdays, controlling for covariates. The marginal effect analysis showed that lost workdays differed by 2.45 days between mistreated and non-mistreated workers. This implies that workplace mistreatment was associated with $4.1 billion, or 5.5%, of sickness absenteeism costs in 2010. Workplace mistreatment is associated with sickness absence in the United States. While a causal relationship could not be established due to the cross-sectional design of the study, this study reveals the economic importance of developing workplace mistreatment prevention strategies. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  3. Impact of modality choice on rates of hospitalization in patients eligible for both peritoneal dialysis and hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Quinn, Robert R; Ravani, Pietro; Zhang, Xin; Garg, Amit X; Blake, Peter G; Austin, Peter C; Zacharias, James M; Johnson, John F; Pandeya, Sanjay; Verrelli, Mauro; Oliver, Matthew J

    2014-01-01

    Hospitalization rates are a relevant consideration when choosing or recommending a dialysis modality. Previous comparisons of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and hemodialysis (HD) have not been restricted to individuals who were eligible for both therapies. ♢ We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of people 18 years of age and older who were eligible for both PD and HD, and who started outpatient dialysis between 2007 and 2010 in four Canadian dialysis programs. Zero-inflated negative binomial models, adjusted for baseline patient characteristics, were used to examine the association between modality choice and rates of hospitalization. ♢ The study enrolled 314 patients. A trend in the HD group toward higher rates of hospitalization, observed in the primary analysis, became significant when modality was treated as a time-varying exposure or when the population was restricted to elective outpatient starts in patients with at least 4 months of pre-dialysis care. Cardiovascular disease, infectious complications, and elective surgery were the most common reasons for hospital admission; only 23% of hospital stays were directly related to complications of dialysis or kidney disease. ♢ Efforts to promote PD utilization are unlikely to result in increased rates of hospitalization, and efforts to reduce hospital admissions should focus on potentially avoidable causes of cardiovascular disease and infectious complications.

  4. Impact of Modality Choice on Rates of Hospitalization in Patients Eligible for Both Peritoneal Dialysis and Hemodialysis

    PubMed Central

    Quinn, Robert R.; Ravani, Pietro; Zhang, Xin; Garg, Amit X.; Blake, Peter G.; Austin, Peter C.; Zacharias, James M.; Johnson, John F.; Pandeya, Sanjay; Verrelli, Mauro; Oliver, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    ♦ Background: Hospitalization rates are a relevant consideration when choosing or recommending a dialysis modality. Previous comparisons of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and hemodialysis (HD) have not been restricted to individuals who were eligible for both therapies. ♦ Methods: We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of people 18 years of age and older who were eligible for both PD and HD, and who started outpatient dialysis between 2007 and 2010 in four Canadian dialysis programs. Zero-inflated negative binomial models, adjusted for baseline patient characteristics, were used to examine the association between modality choice and rates of hospitalization. ♦ Results: The study enrolled 314 patients. A trend in the HD group toward higher rates of hospitalization, observed in the primary analysis, became significant when modality was treated as a time-varying exposure or when the population was restricted to elective outpatient starts in patients with at least 4 months of pre-dialysis care. Cardiovascular disease, infectious complications, and elective surgery were the most common reasons for hospital admission; only 23% of hospital stays were directly related to complications of dialysis or kidney disease. ♦ Conclusions: Efforts to promote PD utilization are unlikely to result in increased rates of hospitalization, and efforts to reduce hospital admissions should focus on potentially avoidable causes of cardiovascular disease and infectious complications. PMID:24525596

  5. Predictors of Depressive Symptoms Among Israeli Jews and Arabs During the Al Aqsa Intifada: A Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Tracy, Melissa; Hobfoll, Stevan E.; Canetti–Nisim, Daphna; Galea, Sandro

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE We sought to assess the predictors of depressive symptoms in a population–based cohort exposed to ongoing and widespread terrorism. METHODS Interviews of a representative sample of adults living in Israel, including both Jews and Arabs, were conducted between August and September 2004, with follow-up interviews taking place between February and April 2005. Censoring weights were estimated to account for differential loss to follow-up. Zero-inflated negative binomial models with bootstrapped confidence intervals were fit to assess predictors of severity of depressive symptoms, assessed using items from the Patient Health Questionnaire. RESULTS A total of 1613 Israeli residents participated in the baseline interview (80.8% Jewish, 49.4% male, mean age 43 years); 840 residents also participated in the follow-up interview. In multivariable models, Israeli Arab ethnicity, lower household income, lower social support, experiencing economic loss from terrorism, experiencing higher levels of psychosocial resource loss, and meeting criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder were significantly associated with increased severity of depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS Material deprivation is the primary modifiable risk factor for depressive symptoms in the context of ongoing terrorism. Efforts to minimize ongoing material and economic stressors may mitigate the mental health consequences of ongoing terrorism. PMID:18261923

  6. Spatial distribution of citizen science casuistic observations for different taxonomic groups.

    PubMed

    Tiago, Patrícia; Ceia-Hasse, Ana; Marques, Tiago A; Capinha, César; Pereira, Henrique M

    2017-10-16

    Opportunistic citizen science databases are becoming an important way of gathering information on species distributions. These data are temporally and spatially dispersed and could have limitations regarding biases in the distribution of the observations in space and/or time. In this work, we test the influence of landscape variables in the distribution of citizen science observations for eight taxonomic groups. We use data collected through a Portuguese citizen science database (biodiversity4all.org). We use a zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model the distribution of observations as a function of a set of variables representing the landscape features plausibly influencing the spatial distribution of the records. Results suggest that the density of paths is the most important variable, having a statistically significant positive relationship with number of observations for seven of the eight taxa considered. Wetland coverage was also identified as having a significant, positive relationship, for birds, amphibians and reptiles, and mammals. Our results highlight that the distribution of species observations, in citizen science projects, is spatially biased. Higher frequency of observations is driven largely by accessibility and by the presence of water bodies. We conclude that efforts are required to increase the spatial evenness of sampling effort from volunteers.

  7. The price of sex: condom use and the determinants of the price of sex among female sex workers in eastern Zimbabwe.

    PubMed

    Elmes, Jocelyn; Nhongo, Kundai; Ward, Helen; Hallett, Timothy; Nyamukapa, Constance; White, Peter J; Gregson, Simon

    2014-12-01

    Higher prices for unprotected sex threaten the high levels of condom use that contributed to the decline in Zimbabwe's human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. To improve understanding of financial pressures competing against safer sex, we explore factors associated with the price of commercial sex in rural eastern Zimbabwe. We collected and analyzed cross-sectional data on 311 women, recruited during October-December 2010, who reported that they received payment for their most-recent or second-most-recent sex acts in the past year. Zero-inflated negative binomial models with robust standard errors clustered on female sex worker (FSW) were used to explore social and behavioral determinants of price. The median price of sex was $10 (interquartile range [IQR], $5-$20) per night and $10 (IQR, $5-$15) per act. Amounts paid in cash and commodities did not differ significantly. At the most-recent sex act, more-educated FSWs received 30%-74% higher payments. Client requests for condom use significantly predicted protected sex (P < .01), but clients paid on average 42.9% more for unprotected sex. Within a work environment where clients' preferences determine condom use, FSWs effectively use their individual capital to negotiate the terms of condom use. Strengthening FSWs' preferences for protected sex could help maintain high levels of condom use. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  8. The Price of Sex: Condom Use and the Determinants of the Price of Sex Among Female Sex Workers in Eastern Zimbabwe

    PubMed Central

    Elmes, Jocelyn; Nhongo, Kundai; Ward, Helen; Hallett, Timothy; Nyamukapa, Constance; White, Peter J.; Gregson, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Background. Higher prices for unprotected sex threaten the high levels of condom use that contributed to the decline in Zimbabwe's human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. To improve understanding of financial pressures competing against safer sex, we explore factors associated with the price of commercial sex in rural eastern Zimbabwe. Methods. We collected and analyzed cross-sectional data on 311 women, recruited during October–December 2010, who reported that they received payment for their most-recent or second-most-recent sex acts in the past year. Zero-inflated negative binomial models with robust standard errors clustered on female sex worker (FSW) were used to explore social and behavioral determinants of price. Results. The median price of sex was $10 (interquartile range [IQR], $5–$20) per night and $10 (IQR, $5–$15) per act. Amounts paid in cash and commodities did not differ significantly. At the most-recent sex act, more-educated FSWs received 30%–74% higher payments. Client requests for condom use significantly predicted protected sex (P < .01), but clients paid on average 42.9% more for unprotected sex. Conclusions. Within a work environment where clients' preferences determine condom use, FSWs effectively use their individual capital to negotiate the terms of condom use. Strengthening FSWs' preferences for protected sex could help maintain high levels of condom use. PMID:25381377

  9. Curiosity Killed the Cocktail? Curiosity, Sensation Seeking, and Alcohol-related Problems in College Women

    PubMed Central

    Lindgren, Kristen P.; Mullins, Peter M.; Neighbors, Clayton; Blayney, Jessica A.

    2010-01-01

    Curiosity, composed of two factors: exploration and absorption, has been previously associated with life satisfaction, life meaningfulness, and enhanced positive affect. It also shares some overlap with sensation seeking, which has been linked to alcohol use and other addictive behaviors. The present research explored the association between curiosity and college women’s problematic drinking in the context of sensation seeking. Participants (79 women) completed questionnaires measuring curiosity, sensation seeking, alcohol consumption, and consequences related to alcohol consumption. A zero-inflated negative binomial model indicated that curiosity and sensation seeking accounted for unique variance in alcohol-related problems after controlling for drinking. The curiosity factors had opposing relationships to alcohol-related problems: higher scores on absorption were associated with more alcohol related problems whereas higher scores on exploration were associated with fewer alcohol related problems. Should findings be replicated, the curiosity factors may represent additional prevention and intervention targets. Future directions for research about curiosity and drinking and for the inclusion of positive psychology constructs in addictive behaviors research are discussed. PMID:20080358

  10. Associations with Unprotected Sexual Behavior Among HIV-Infected Drinkers in Western Kenya.

    PubMed

    Papas, Rebecca K; Gakinya, Benson N; Mwaniki, Michael M; Wu, Xiaotian K; Lee, Hana; Martino, Steve; Klein, Debra A; Sidle, John E; Loxley, Michelle P; Keter, Alfred K; Baliddawa, Joyce B; Maisto, Stephen A

    2018-05-16

    Approximately 71% of HIV-infected individuals live in sub-Saharan Africa. Alcohol use increases unprotected sex, which can lead to HIV transmission. Little research examines risky sex among HIV-infected individuals in East Africa who are not sex workers. The study purpose was to examine associations with unprotected sex in a high-risk sample of 507 HIV-infected sexually active drinkers in western Kenya. They were enrolled in a trial to reduce alcohol use. Past-month baseline alcohol use and sexual behavior were assessed using the Timeline Followback. A zero-inflated negative binomial model examined associations with occurrence and frequency of unprotected sex. Results showed heavy drinking days were significantly associated with unprotected sex occurrence across gender, and with unprotected sex frequency among women. Among women, transactional sex, alcohol-related sexual expectations, condom use self-efficacy, drinking-and-protected-sex days and age were associated with unprotected sex occurrence while alcohol-related sexual expectations, depressive symptoms and condom use self-efficacy were associated with unprotected sex frequency. Among men, alcohol-related sexual expectations, condom use self-efficacy, and age were associated with unprotected sex occurrence, while drinking-and-protected-sex days were associated with unprotected sex occurrence and frequency. Findings suggest robust relationships between heavy drinking and unprotected sex. Further research is needed elucidating the temporal relationships between drinking and unprotected sex in this population.

  11. Associations between sensitivity to punishment, sensitivity to reward, and gambling.

    PubMed

    Gaher, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Shishido, Hanako; Simons, Jeffrey S; Gaster, Sam

    2015-03-01

    The majority of individuals gamble during their lifetime; however only a subset of these individuals develops problematic gambling. Gray's Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory may be relevant to understanding gambling problems. Differences in sensitivity to punishments and rewards can influence an individual's behavior and may be pertinent to the development of gambling problems. This study examined the functional associations between sensitivity to punishment (SP), sensitivity to reward (SR), and gambling problems in a sample of 2254 college students. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to predict gambling problems as well as the absence of gambling problems. Gambling problems were hypothesized to be positively associated with SR and inversely associated with SP. In addition, SP was hypothesized to moderate the association between SR and gambling problems, attenuating the strength of the association. As hypothesized, SR was positively associated with gambling problems. However, SP did not moderate the relationship between SR and gambling problems. SP did, however, moderate the relationship between SR and the likelihood of never experiencing gambling problems. The results demonstrate that individual differences in SP and SR are functionally associated with gambling problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Effects of Cognition, Function, and Behavioral and Psychological Symptoms on Medicare Expenditures and Health Care Utilization for Persons With Dementia.

    PubMed

    Jutkowitz, Eric; Kane, Robert L; Dowd, Bryan; Gaugler, Joseph E; MacLehose, Richard F; Kuntz, Karen M

    2017-06-01

    Clinical features of dementia (cognition, function, and behavioral/psychological symptoms [BPSD]) may differentially affect Medicare expenditures/health care utilization. We linked cross-sectional data from the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study to Medicare data to evaluate the association between dementia clinical features among those with dementia and Medicare expenditures/health care utilization (n = 234). Cognition was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Function was evaluated as the number of functional limitations (0-10). BPSD was evaluated as the number of symptoms (0-12). Expenditures were estimated with a generalized linear model (log-link and gamma distribution). Number of hospitalizations, institutional outpatient visits, and physician visits were estimated with a negative binomial regression. Medicare covered skilled nursing days were estimated with a zero-inflated negative binomial model. Cognition and BPSD were not associated with expenditures. Among individuals with less than seven functional limitations, one additional limitation was associated with $123 (95% confidence interval: $19-$227) additional monthly Medicare spending. Better cognition and poorer function were associated with more hospitalizations among those with an MMSE less than three and less than six functional limitations, respectively. BPSD had no effect on hospitalizations. Poorer function and fewer BPSD were associated with more skilled nursing among individuals with one to seven functional limitations and more than four symptoms, respectively. Cognition had no effect on skilled nursing care. No clinical feature was associated with institutional outpatient care. Of individuals with an MMSE less than 15, poorer cognition was associated with fewer physician visits. Among those with more than six functional limitations, poorer function was associated with fewer physician visits. Poorer function, not cognition or BPSD, was associated with higher Medicare

  13. Impact of cigarette smoking on utilization of nursing home services.

    PubMed

    Warner, Kenneth E; McCammon, Ryan J; Fries, Brant E; Langa, Kenneth M

    2013-11-01

    Few studies have examined the effects of smoking on nursing home utilization, generally using poor data on smoking status. No previous study has distinguished utilization for recent from long-term quitters. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we assessed nursing home utilization by never-smokers, long-term quitters (quit >3 years), recent quitters (quit ≤3 years), and current smokers. We used logistic regression to evaluate the likelihood of a nursing home admission. For those with an admission, we used negative binomial regression on the number of nursing home nights. Finally, we employed zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate nights for the full sample. Controlling for other variables, compared with never-smokers, long-term quitters have an odds ratio (OR) for nursing home admission of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07-1.2), current smokers 1.39 (1.23-1.57), and recent quitters 1.55 (1.29-1.87). The probability of admission rises rapidly with age and is lower for African Americans and Hispanics, more affluent respondents, respondents with a spouse present in the home, and respondents with a living child. Given admission, smoking status is not associated with length of stay (LOS). LOS is longer for older respondents and women and shorter for more affluent respondents and those with spouses present. Compared with otherwise identical never-smokers, former and current smokers have a significantly increased risk of nursing home admission. That recent quitters are at greatest risk of admission is consistent with evidence that many stop smoking because they are sick, often due to smoking.

  14. Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania: The influence of sampling strategy and statistical approach

    PubMed Central

    Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

    2017-01-01

    Background Schistosoma mansoni is a parasite of major public health importance in developing countries, where it causes a neglected tropical disease known as intestinal schistosomiasis. However, the distribution of the parasite within many endemic regions is currently unknown, which hinders effective control. The purpose of this study was to characterize the prevalence and intensity of infection of S. mansoni in a remote area of western Tanzania. Methodology/Principal findings Stool samples were collected from 192 children and 147 adults residing in Gombe National Park and four nearby villages. Children were actively sampled in local schools, and adults were sampled passively by voluntary presentation at the local health clinics. The two datasets were therefore analysed separately. Faecal worm egg count (FWEC) data were analysed using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence as calculated based on the simple proportion of non-zero FWEC. For the passively sampled data from adults, the data were consistent with close to 100% true prevalence of infection. Both the prevalence and intensity of infection differed significantly between sites, but there were no significant associations with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk

  15. Risk factors related to Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats.

    PubMed

    Deng, Huifang; Dam-Deisz, Cecile; Luttikholt, Saskia; Maas, Miriam; Nielen, Mirjam; Swart, Arno; Vellema, Piet; van der Giessen, Joke; Opsteegh, Marieke

    2016-02-01

    Toxoplasma gondii can cause disease in goats, but also has impact on human health through food-borne transmission. Our aims were to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats and to identify the risk factors related to T. gondii seroprevalence. Fifty-two out of ninety approached farmers with indoor-kept goats (58%) participated by answering a standardized questionnaire and contributing 32 goat blood samples each. Serum samples were tested for T. gondii SAG1 antibodies by ELISA and results showed that the frequency distribution of the log10-transformed OD-values fitted well with a binary mixture of a shifted gamma and a shifted reflected gamma distribution. The overall animal seroprevalence was 13.3% (95% CI: 11.7–14.9%), and at least one seropositive animal was found on 61.5% (95% CI: 48.3–74.7%) of the farms. To evaluate potential risk factors on herd level, three modeling strategies (Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated) were compared. The negative binomial model fitted the data best with the number of cats (1–4 cats: IR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1–6.5; > = 5 cats:IR: 14.2, 95% CI: 3.9–51.1) and mean animal age (IR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1–2.1) related to herd positivity. In conclusion, the ELISA test was 100% sensitive and specific based on binary mixture analysis. T. gondii infection is prevalent in indoor housed Dutch dairy goats but at a lower overall animal level seroprevalence than outdoor farmed goats in other European countries, and cat exposure is an important risk factor.

  16. Household expenditure on leprosy outpatient services in the Indian health system: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Suryawanshi, Pramilesh; Raikwar, Akash; Arif, Mohammad; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

    2018-01-01

    Background Leprosy is a major public health problem in many low and middle income countries, especially in India, and contributes considerably to the global burden of the disease. Leprosy and poverty are closely associated, and therefore the economic burden of leprosy is a concern. However, evidence on patient’s expenditure is scarce. In this study, we estimate the expenditure in primary care (outpatient) by leprosy households in two different public health settings. Methodology/Principal findings We performed a cross-sectional study, comparing the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli with the Umbergaon block of Valsad, Gujrat, India. A household (HH) survey was conducted between May and October, 2016. We calculated direct and indirect expenditure by zero inflated negative binomial and negative binomial regression. The sampled households were comparable on socioeconomic indicators. The mean direct expenditure was USD 6.5 (95% CI: 2.4–17.9) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 5.4 (95% CI: 3.8–7.9) per visit in Umbergaon. The mean indirect expenditure was USD 8.7 (95% CI: 7.2–10.6) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 12.4 (95% CI: 7.0–21.9) in Umbergaon. The age of the leprosy patients and type of health facilities were the major predictors of total expenditure on leprosy primary care. The higher the age, the higher the expenditure at both sites. The private facilities are more expensive than the government facilities at both sites. If the public health system is enhanced, government facilities are the first preference for patients. Conclusions/Significance An enhanced public health system reduces the patient’s expenditure and improves the health seeking behaviour. We recommend investing in health system strengthening to reduce the economic burden of leprosy. PMID:29300747

  17. Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers.

    PubMed

    Chai, Jing; Qu, Weina; Sun, Xianghong; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes.

  18. Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers

    PubMed Central

    Chai, Jing; Qu, Weina; Sun, Xianghong; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes. PMID:26765225

  19. Patch Test Negative Generalized Dermatitis.

    PubMed

    Spiker, Alison; Mowad, Christen

    2016-01-01

    Allergic contact dermatitis is a common condition in dermatology. Patch testing is the criterion standard for diagnosis. However, dermatitis is not always caused by an allergen, and patch testing does not identify a culprit in every patient. Generalized dermatitis, defined as eczematous dermatitis affecting greater than 3 body sites, is often encountered in dermatology practice, especially patch test referral centers. Management for patients with generalized dermatitis who are patch test negative is challenging. The purpose of this article is to outline an approach to this challenging scenario and summarize the paucity of existing literature on patch test negative generalized dermatitis.

  20. Sigma models with negative curvature

    DOE PAGES

    Alonso, Rodrigo; Jenkins, Elizabeth E.; Manohar, Aneesh V.

    2016-03-16

    Here, we construct Higgs Effective Field Theory (HEFT) based on the scalar manifold Hn, which is a hyperbolic space of constant negative curvature. The Lagrangian has a non-compact O(n, 1) global symmetry group, but it gives a unitary theory as long as only a compact subgroup of the global symmetry is gauged. Whether the HEFT manifold has positive or negative curvature can be tested by measuring the S-parameter, and the cross sections for longitudinal gauge boson and Higgs boson scattering, since the curvature (including its sign) determines deviations from Standard Model values.

  1. The Cadarache negative ion experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Massmann, P.; Bottereau, J.M.; Belchenko, Y.

    1995-12-31

    Up to energies of 140 keV neutral beam injection (NBI) based on positive ions has proven to be a reliable and flexible plasma heating method and has provided major contributions to most of the important experiments on virtually all large tokamaks around the world. As a candidate for additional heating and current drive on next step fusion machines (ITER ao) it is hoped that NBI can be equally successful. The ITER NBI parameters of 1 MeV, 50 MW D{degree} demand primary D{sup {minus}} beams with current densities of at least 15 mA/cm{sup 2}. Although considerable progress has been made inmore » the area of negative ion production and acceleration the high demands still require substantial and urgent development. Regarding negative ion production Cs seeded plasma sources lead the way. Adding a small amount of Cs to the discharge (Cs seeding) not only increases the negative ion yield by a factor 3--5 but also has the advantage that the discharge can be run at lower pressures. This is beneficial for the reduction of stripping losses in the accelerator. Multi-ampere negative ion production in a large plasma source is studied in the MANTIS experiment. Acceleration and neutralization at ITER relevant parameters is the objective of the 1 MV SINGAP experiment.« less

  2. Cosmology with negative absolute temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Vieira, J.P.P.; Byrnes, Christian T.; Lewis, Antony, E-mail: J.Pinto-Vieira@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: ctb22@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: antony@cosmologist.info

    Negative absolute temperatures (NAT) are an exotic thermodynamical consequence of quantum physics which has been known since the 1950's (having been achieved in the lab on a number of occasions). Recently, the work of Braun et al. [1] has rekindled interest in negative temperatures and hinted at a possibility of using NAT systems in the lab as dark energy analogues. This paper goes one step further, looking into the cosmological consequences of the existence of a NAT component in the Universe. NAT-dominated expanding Universes experience a borderline phantom expansion ( w < -1) with no Big Rip, and their contractingmore » counterparts are forced to bounce after the energy density becomes sufficiently large. Both scenarios might be used to solve horizon and flatness problems analogously to standard inflation and bouncing cosmologies. We discuss the difficulties in obtaining and ending a NAT-dominated epoch, and possible ways of obtaining density perturbations with an acceptable spectrum.« less

  3. Negative gravitropism in plant roots.

    PubMed

    Ge, Liangfa; Chen, Rujin

    2016-10-17

    Plants are capable of orienting their root growth towards gravity in a process termed gravitropism, which is necessary for roots to grow into soil, for water and nutrient acquisition and to anchor plants. Here we show that root gravitropism depends on the novel protein, NEGATIVE GRAVITROPIC RESPONSE OF ROOTS (NGR). In both Medicago truncatula and Arabidopsis thaliana, loss of NGR reverses the direction of root gravitropism, resulting in roots growing upward.

  4. Metalinguistic Negation in English and Arabic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nedwick, Kelly M.

    2014-01-01

    Negation is a unique and fascinating property of human language which has been given extensive theoretical and typological treatment. One categorization divides negation use into metalinguistic negation and descriptive negation (Horn, 1985). Descriptive negation (DN) is the truth-functional semantic operator which has received the most attention…

  5. Binomial outcomes in dataset with some clusters of size two: can the dependence of twins be accounted for? A simulation study comparing the reliability of statistical methods based on a dataset of preterm infants.

    PubMed

    Sauzet, Odile; Peacock, Janet L

    2017-07-20

    The analysis of perinatal outcomes often involves datasets with some multiple births. These are datasets mostly formed of independent observations and a limited number of clusters of size two (twins) and maybe of size three or more. This non-independence needs to be accounted for in the statistical analysis. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we have previously investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of continuous outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Mixed models have been developed for binomial outcomes but very little is known about their reliability when only a limited number of small clusters are present. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of binomial outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Logistic models, several methods of estimation for the logistic random intercept models and generalised estimating equations were compared. The presence of even a small percentage of twins means that a logistic regression model will underestimate all parameters but a logistic random intercept model fails to estimate the correlation between siblings if the percentage of twins is too small and will provide similar estimates to logistic regression. The method which seems to provide the best balance between estimation of the standard error and the parameter for any percentage of twins is the generalised estimating equations. This study has shown that the number of covariates or the level two variance do not necessarily affect the performance of the various methods used to analyse datasets containing twins but when the percentage of small clusters is too small, mixed models cannot capture the dependence between siblings.

  6. Resources predicting positive and negative affect during the experience of stress: a study of older Asian Indian immigrants in the United States.

    PubMed

    Diwan, Sadhna; Jonnalagadda, Satya S; Balaswamy, Shantha

    2004-10-01

    Using the life stress model of psychological well-being, in this study we examined risks and resources predicting the occurrence of both positive and negative affect among older Asian Indian immigrants who experienced stressful life events. We collected data through a telephone survey of 226 respondents (aged 50 years and older) in the Southeastern United States. We used hierarchical, negative binomial regression analyses to examine correlates of positive and negative affect. Different coping resources influenced positive and negative affect when stressful life events were controlled for. Being female was a common risk factor for poorer positive and increased negative affect. Satisfaction with friendships and a cultural or ethnic identity that is either bicultural or more American were predictive of greater positive affect. Greater religiosity and increased mastery were resources predicting less negative affect. Cognitive and structural interventions that increase opportunities for social integration, increasing mastery, and addressing spiritual concerns are discussed as ways of coping with stress to improve the well-being of individuals in this immigrant community.

  7. Dynamically variable negative stiffness structures

    PubMed Central

    Churchill, Christopher B.; Shahan, David W.; Smith, Sloan P.; Keefe, Andrew C.; McKnight, Geoffrey P.

    2016-01-01

    Variable stiffness structures that enable a wide range of efficient load-bearing and dexterous activity are ubiquitous in mammalian musculoskeletal systems but are rare in engineered systems because of their complexity, power, and cost. We present a new negative stiffness–based load-bearing structure with dynamically tunable stiffness. Negative stiffness, traditionally used to achieve novel response from passive structures, is a powerful tool to achieve dynamic stiffness changes when configured with an active component. Using relatively simple hardware and low-power, low-frequency actuation, we show an assembly capable of fast (<10 ms) and useful (>100×) dynamic stiffness control. This approach mitigates limitations of conventional tunable stiffness structures that exhibit either small (<30%) stiffness change, high friction, poor load/torque transmission at low stiffness, or high power active control at the frequencies of interest. We experimentally demonstrate actively tunable vibration isolation and stiffness tuning independent of supported loads, enhancing applications such as humanoid robotic limbs and lightweight adaptive vibration isolators. PMID:26989771

  8. Dynamically variable negative stiffness structures.

    PubMed

    Churchill, Christopher B; Shahan, David W; Smith, Sloan P; Keefe, Andrew C; McKnight, Geoffrey P

    2016-02-01

    Variable stiffness structures that enable a wide range of efficient load-bearing and dexterous activity are ubiquitous in mammalian musculoskeletal systems but are rare in engineered systems because of their complexity, power, and cost. We present a new negative stiffness-based load-bearing structure with dynamically tunable stiffness. Negative stiffness, traditionally used to achieve novel response from passive structures, is a powerful tool to achieve dynamic stiffness changes when configured with an active component. Using relatively simple hardware and low-power, low-frequency actuation, we show an assembly capable of fast (<10 ms) and useful (>100×) dynamic stiffness control. This approach mitigates limitations of conventional tunable stiffness structures that exhibit either small (<30%) stiffness change, high friction, poor load/torque transmission at low stiffness, or high power active control at the frequencies of interest. We experimentally demonstrate actively tunable vibration isolation and stiffness tuning independent of supported loads, enhancing applications such as humanoid robotic limbs and lightweight adaptive vibration isolators.

  9. Negative regulators of vessel patterning.

    PubMed

    Suchting, Steven; Freitas, Catarina; le Noble, Ferdinand; Benedito, Rui; Bréant, Christiane; Duarte, Antonio; Eichmann, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Blood vessels and nerves are structurally similar, complex branched networks that require guidance to ensure their proper positioning in the body. Recent studies have demonstrated that specialized endothelial cells, resembling axonal growth cones, are located at the tips of growing capillaries. These endothelial tip cells guide outgrowing capillaries in response to gradients of extracellular matrix-bound vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). Here we show that endothelial tip cell formation and vessel branching are negatively regulated by the Notch ligand Delta-like 4 (Dll4). Heterozygous deletion of Dll4 or pharmacological inhibition of Notch signalling using gamma-secretase inhibitor revealed a striking vascular phenotype, with greatly increased numbers of filopodia-extending endothelial tip cells and increased expression of tip cell marker genes compared to controls. Filopodia extension in Dll4+/- retinal vessels required VEGF and was inhibited when VEGF signalling was blocked. While VEGF expression was not significantly altered in Dll4+- retinas, Dll4+/- vessels showed increased expression of VEGF Receptor 2 and decreased expression of VEGF Receptor 1 compared to wildtype, suggesting that they could be more responsive to VEGF stimulation. In addition, expression of Dll4 in wildtype tip cells was itself decreased when VEGF signalling was blocked, indicating that Dll4 may act downstream of VEGF as a 'brake' on VEGF-mediated angiogenic sprouting. Taken together, these data reveal Dll4 as a novel negative regulator of vascular sprouting and vessel branching that is required for normal vascular network formation during development.

  10. Negative dysphotopsia: A perfect storm.

    PubMed

    Henderson, Bonnie An; Geneva, Ivayla I

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this review was to provide a summary of the peer-reviewed literature on the etiologies of negative dysphotopsia that occurs after routine cataract surgery. A search of PubMed, Google Scholar, and Retina Medical identified 59 reports. Negative dysphotopsia has been associated with many types of intraocular lenses (IOLs), including hydrophobic and hydrophilic acrylic, silicone, and 1-piece and 3-piece designs. Proposed etiologies include edge design, edge smoothness, edge thickness, index of refraction of the IOL, pupil size, amount of functional nasal retina, edema from the clear corneal incision, distance between the iris and IOL, amount of pigmentation of the eye, corneal shape, prominent globe and shallow orbit, and interaction between the anterior capsulorhexis and IOL. Treatments include a piggyback IOL, reverse optic capture, dilation of the pupil, constriction of the pupil, neodymium:YAG capsulotomy of the nasal portion of the anterior capsule, IOL exchange with round-edged optics, and time alone. This review summarizes the findings. Dr. Henderson is a consultant to Alcon Laboratories, Inc., Abbott Medical Optics, Inc., Bausch & Lomb, and Genzyme Corp. Neither author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Contribution of chronic diseases to disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey.

    PubMed

    Sousa, Renata M; Ferri, Cleusa P; Acosta, Daisy; Albanese, Emiliano; Guerra, Mariella; Huang, Yueqin; Jacob, K S; Jotheeswaran, A T; Rodriguez, Juan J Llibre; Pichardo, Guillermina Rodriguez; Rodriguez, Marina Calvo; Salas, Aquiles; Sosa, Ana Luisa; Williams, Joseph; Zuniga, Tirso; Prince, Martin

    2009-11-28

    Disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes is little studied; according to Global Burden of Disease estimates, visual impairment is the leading contributor to years lived with disability in this population. We aimed to assess the contribution of physical, mental, and cognitive chronic diseases to disability, and the extent to which sociodemographic and health characteristics account for geographical variation in disability. We undertook cross-sectional surveys of residents aged older than 65 years (n=15 022) in 11 sites in seven countries with low and middle incomes (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Disability was assessed with the 12-item WHO disability assessment schedule 2.0. Dementia, depression, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were ascertained by clinical assessment; diabetes, stroke, and heart disease by self-reported diagnosis; and sensory, gastrointestinal, skin, limb, and arthritic disorders by self-reported impairment. Independent contributions to disability scores were assessed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression and Poisson regression to generate population-attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF). In regions other than rural India and Venezuela, dementia made the largest contribution to disability (median PAPF 25.1% [IQR 19.2-43.6]). Other substantial contributors were stroke (11.4% [1.8-21.4]), limb impairment (10.5% [5.7-33.8]), arthritis (9.9% [3.2-34.8]), depression (8.3% [0.5-23.0]), eyesight problems (6.8% [1.7-17.6]), and gastrointestinal impairments (6.5% [0.3-23.1]). Associations with chronic diseases accounted for around two-thirds of prevalent disability. When zero inflation was taken into account, between-site differences in disability scores were largely attributable to compositional differences in health and sociodemographic characteristics. On the basis of empirical research, dementia, not blindness, is overwhelmingly the most important

  12. Contribution of chronic diseases to disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey

    PubMed Central

    Sousa, Renata M; Ferri, Cleusa P; Acosta, Daisy; Albanese, Emiliano; Guerra, Mariella; Huang, Yueqin; Jacob, KS; Jotheeswaran, AT; Rodriguez, Juan J Llibre; Pichardo, Guillermina Rodriguez; Rodriguez, Marina Calvo; Salas, Aquiles; Sosa, Ana Luisa; Williams, Joseph; Zuniga, Tirso; Prince, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Summary Background Disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes is little studied; according to Global Burden of Disease estimates, visual impairment is the leading contributor to years lived with disability in this population. We aimed to assess the contribution of physical, mental, and cognitive chronic diseases to disability, and the extent to which sociodemographic and health characteristics account for geographical variation in disability. Methods We undertook cross-sectional surveys of residents aged older than 65 years (n=15 022) in 11 sites in seven countries with low and middle incomes (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Disability was assessed with the 12-item WHO disability assessment schedule 2.0. Dementia, depression, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were ascertained by clinical assessment; diabetes, stroke, and heart disease by self-reported diagnosis; and sensory, gastrointestinal, skin, limb, and arthritic disorders by self-reported impairment. Independent contributions to disability scores were assessed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression and Poisson regression to generate population-attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF). Findings In regions other than rural India and Venezuela, dementia made the largest contribution to disability (median PAPF 25·1% [IQR 19·2–43·6]). Other substantial contributors were stroke (11·4% [1·8–21·4]), limb impairment (10·5% [5·7–33·8]), arthritis (9·9% [3·2–34·8]), depression (8·3% [0·5–23·0]), eyesight problems (6·8% [1·7–17·6]), and gastrointestinal impairments (6·5% [0·3–23·1]). Associations with chronic diseases accounted for around two-thirds of prevalent disability. When zero inflation was taken into account, between-site differences in disability scores were largely attributable to compositional differences in health and sociodemographic characteristics. Interpretation On the basis

  13. Some Phenomena on Negative Inversion Constructions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sung, Tae-Soo

    2013-01-01

    We examine the characteristics of NDI (negative degree inversion) and its relation with other inversion phenomena such as SVI (subject-verb inversion) and SAI (subject-auxiliary inversion). The negative element in the NDI construction may be" not," a negative adverbial, or a negative verb. In this respect, NDI has similar licensing…

  14. Entanglement negativity in the multiverse

    SciTech Connect

    Kanno, Sugumi; Shock, Jonathan P.; Soda, Jiro, E-mail: sugumi.kanno@ehu.es, E-mail: jonathan.shock@uct.ac.za, E-mail: jiro@phys.sci.kobe-u.ac.jp

    2015-03-01

    We explore quantum entanglement between two causally disconnected regions in the multiverse. We first consider a free massive scalar field, and compute the entanglement negativity between two causally separated open charts in de Sitter space. The qualitative feature of it turns out to be in agreement with that of the entanglement entropy. We then introduce two observers who determine the entanglement between two causally disconnected de Sitter spaces. When one of the observers remains constrained to a region of the open chart in a de Sitter space, we find that the scale dependence enters into the entanglement. We show thatmore » a state which is initially maximally entangled becomes more entangled or less entangled on large scales depending on the mass of the scalar field and recovers the initial entanglement in the small scale limit. We argue that quantum entanglement may provide some evidence for the existence of the multiverse.« less

  15. Entanglement negativity in the multiverse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanno, Sugumi; Shock, Jonathan P.; Soda, Jiro

    2015-03-01

    We explore quantum entanglement between two causally disconnected regions in the multiverse. We first consider a free massive scalar field, and compute the entanglement negativity between two causally separated open charts in de Sitter space. The qualitative feature of it turns out to be in agreement with that of the entanglement entropy. We then introduce two observers who determine the entanglement between two causally disconnected de Sitter spaces. When one of the observers remains constrained to a region of the open chart in a de Sitter space, we find that the scale dependence enters into the entanglement. We show that a state which is initially maximally entangled becomes more entangled or less entangled on large scales depending on the mass of the scalar field and recovers the initial entanglement in the small scale limit. We argue that quantum entanglement may provide some evidence for the existence of the multiverse.

  16. Coinductive Logic Programming with Negation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Min, Richard; Gupta, Gopal

    We introduce negation into coinductive logic programming (co-LP) via what we term Coinductive SLDNF (co-SLDNF) resolution. We present declarative and operational semantics of co-SLDNF resolution and present their equivalence under the restriction of rationality. Co-LP with co-SLDNF resolution provides a powerful, practical and efficient operational semantics for Fitting's Kripke-Kleene three-valued logic with restriction of rationality. Further, applications of co-SLDNF resolution are also discussed and illustrated where Co-SLDNF resolution allows one to develop elegant implementations of modal logics. Moreover it provides the capability of non-monotonic inference (e.g., predicate Answer Set Programming) that can be used to develop novel and effective first-order modal non-monotonic inference engines.

  17. Visual mismatch negativity and categorization.

    PubMed

    Czigler, István

    2014-07-01

    Visual mismatch negativity (vMMN) component of event-related potentials is elicited by stimuli violating the category rule of stimulus sequences, even if such stimuli are outside the focus of attention. Category-related vMMN emerges to colors, and color-related vMMN is sensitive to language-related effects. A higher-order perceptual category, bilateral symmetry is also represented in the memory processes underlying vMMN. As a relatively large body of research shows, violating the emotional category of human faces elicits vMMN. Another face-related category sensitive to the violation of regular presentation is gender. Finally, vMMN was elicited to the laterality of hands. As results on category-related vMMN show, stimulus representation in the non-conscious change detection system is fairly complex, and it is not restricted to the registration of elementary perceptual regularities.

  18. Double Negative Materials (DNM), Phenomena and Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-07-01

    Nanoparticles Formed by Pairs Of Concentric Double-Negative (DNG), Single-Negative ( SNG ) and/or Double-Positive (DPS) Metamaterial Layers.” J. Appl...material RRL Rapid Research Letters SHG second-harmonic generation SNG single-negative SSR split-ring resonator A-1 Appendix A. October 2008...Pairs of Concentric Double-Negative (DNG), Single-Negative ( SNG ), and/or Double-Positive (DPS) Metamaterial Layers.” J. Appl. Phys. 97, no. 9 (May

  19. Negative energy, superluminosity, and holography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polchinski, Joseph; Susskind, Leonard; Toumbas, Nicolaos

    1999-10-01

    The holographic connection between large N super Yang-Mills (SYM) theory and gravity in anti-de Sitter (AdS) space requires unfamiliar behavior of the SYM theory in the limit that the curvature of the AdS geometry becomes small. The paradoxical behavior includes superluminal oscillations and negative energy density. These effects typically occur in the SYM description of events which take place far from the boundary of AdS when the signal from the event arrives at the boundary. The paradoxes can be resolved by assuming a very rich collection of hidden degrees of freedom of the SYM theory which store information but give rise to no local energy density. These degrees of freedom, called precursors, are needed to make possible sudden apparently acausal energy momentum flows. Such behavior would be impossible in classical field theory as a consequence of the positivity of the energy density. However we show that these effects are not only allowed in quantum field theory but that we can model them in free quantum field theory.

  20. Use of Internet Viral Marketing to Promote Smoke-Free Lifestyles among Chinese Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Ip, Patrick; Lam, Tai-Hing; Chan, Sophia Siu-Chee; Ho, Frederick Ka-Wing; Lo, Lewis A.; Chiu, Ivy Wing-Sze; Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Chow, Chun-Bong

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Youth smoking is a global public health concern. Health educators are increasingly using Internet-based technologies, but the effectiveness of Internet viral marketing in promoting health remains uncertain. This prospective pilot study assessed the efficacy of an online game-based viral marketing campaign in promoting a smoke-free attitude among Chinese adolescents. Methods One hundred and twenty-one Hong Kong Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 were invited to participate in an online multiple-choice quiz game competition designed to deliver tobacco-related health information. Participants were encouraged to refer others to join. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to explore the factors contributing to the referral process. Latent transition analysis utilising a pre- and post-game survey was used to detect attitudinal changes toward smoking. Results The number of participants increased almost eightfold from 121 to 928 (34.6% current or ex-smokers) during the 22-day campaign. Participants exhibited significant attitudinal change, with 73% holding negative attitudes toward smoking after the campaign compared to 57% before it. The transition probabilities from positive to negative and neutral to negative attitudes were 0.52 and 0.48, respectively. It was also found that attempting every 20 quiz questions was associated with lower perceived smoking decision in future (OR  = 0.95, p-value <0.01). Conclusions Our online game-based viral marketing programme was effective in reaching a large number of smoking and non-smoking participants and changing their attitudes toward smoking. It constitutes a promising practical and cost-effective model for engaging young smokers and promulgating smoking-related health information among Chinese adolescents. PMID:24911010

  1. Use of Internet viral marketing to promote smoke-free lifestyles among Chinese adolescents.

    PubMed

    Ip, Patrick; Lam, Tai-Hing; Chan, Sophia Siu-Chee; Ho, Frederick Ka-Wing; Lo, Lewis A; Chiu, Ivy Wing-Sze; Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Chow, Chun-Bong

    2014-01-01

    Youth smoking is a global public health concern. Health educators are increasingly using Internet-based technologies, but the effectiveness of Internet viral marketing in promoting health remains uncertain. This prospective pilot study assessed the efficacy of an online game-based viral marketing campaign in promoting a smoke-free attitude among Chinese adolescents. One hundred and twenty-one Hong Kong Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 were invited to participate in an online multiple-choice quiz game competition designed to deliver tobacco-related health information. Participants were encouraged to refer others to join. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to explore the factors contributing to the referral process. Latent transition analysis utilising a pre- and post-game survey was used to detect attitudinal changes toward smoking. The number of participants increased almost eightfold from 121 to 928 (34.6% current or ex-smokers) during the 22-day campaign. Participants exhibited significant attitudinal change, with 73% holding negative attitudes toward smoking after the campaign compared to 57% before it. The transition probabilities from positive to negative and neutral to negative attitudes were 0.52 and 0.48, respectively. It was also found that attempting every 20 quiz questions was associated with lower perceived smoking decision in future (OR = 0.95, p-value <0.01). Our online game-based viral marketing programme was effective in reaching a large number of smoking and non-smoking participants and changing their attitudes toward smoking. It constitutes a promising practical and cost-effective model for engaging young smokers and promulgating smoking-related health information among Chinese adolescents.

  2. Blood culture-negative endocarditis

    PubMed Central

    Fournier, Pierre-Edouard; Gouriet, Frédérique; Casalta, Jean-Paul; Lepidi, Hubert; Chaudet, Hervé; Thuny, Franck; Collart, Frédéric; Habib, Gilbert; Raoult, Didier

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Blood culture-negative endocarditis (BCNE) may represent up to 70% of all endocarditis cases, depending on series. From 2001 to 2009, we implemented in our laboratory a multimodal diagnostic strategy for BCNE that included systematized testing of blood, and when available, valvular biopsy specimens using serological, broad range molecular, and histopathological assays. A causative microorganism was identified in 62.7% of patients. In this study from January 2010 to December 2015, in an effort to increase the number of identified causative microorganisms, we prospectively added to our diagnostic protocol specific real-time (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays targeting various endocarditis agents, and applied them to all patients with BCNE admitted to the 4 public hospitals in Marseille, France. A total of 283 patients with BCNE were included in the study. Of these, 177 were classified as having definite endocarditis. Using our new multimodal diagnostic strategy, we identified an etiology in 138 patients (78.0% of cases). Of these, 3 were not infective (2.2%) and 1 was diagnosed as having Mycobacterium bovis BCG endocarditis. By adding specific PCR assays from blood and valvular biopsies, which exhibited a significantly greater sensitivity (P < 10−2) than other methods, causative agents, mostly enterococci, streptococci, and zoonotic microorganisms, were identified in an additional 27 patients (14 from valves only, 11 from blood only, and 2 from both). Finally, in another 107 patients, a pathogen was detected using serology in 37, valve culture in 8, broad spectrum PCR from valvular biopsies and blood in 19 and 2, respectively, immunohistochemistry from valves in 3, and a combination of several assays in 38. By adding specific RT-PCR assays to our systematic PCR testing of patients with BCNE, we increased the diagnostic efficiency by 24.3%, mostly by detecting enterococci and streptococci that had not been detected by other diagnostic methods

  3. Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

    2015-10-01

    Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared

  4. Measuring Generalized Expectancies for Negative Mood Regulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Catanzaro, Salvatore J.; Mearns, Jack

    Research has suggested the utility of studying individual differences in the regulation of negative mood states. Generalized response expectancies for negative mood regulation were defined as expectancies that some overt behavior or cognition would alleviate negative mood states as they occur across situations. The Generalized Expectancy for…

  5. Implementing reduced-risk integrated pest management in fresh-market cabbage: influence of sampling parameters, and validation of binomial sequential sampling plans for the cabbage looper (Lepidoptera Noctuidae).

    PubMed

    Burkness, Eric C; Hutchison, W D

    2009-10-01

    Populations of cabbage looper, Trichoplusiani (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), were sampled in experimental plots and commercial fields of cabbage (Brasicca spp.) in Minnesota during 1998-1999 as part of a larger effort to implement an integrated pest management program. Using a resampling approach and the Wald's sequential probability ratio test, sampling plans with different sampling parameters were evaluated using independent presence/absence and enumerative data. Evaluations and comparisons of the different sampling plans were made based on the operating characteristic and average sample number functions generated for each plan and through the use of a decision probability matrix. Values for upper and lower decision boundaries, sequential error rates (alpha, beta), and tally threshold were modified to determine parameter influence on the operating characteristic and average sample number functions. The following parameters resulted in the most desirable operating characteristic and average sample number functions; action threshold of 0.1 proportion of plants infested, tally threshold of 1, alpha = beta = 0.1, upper boundary of 0.15, lower boundary of 0.05, and resampling with replacement. We found that sampling parameters can be modified and evaluated using resampling software to achieve desirable operating characteristic and average sample number functions. Moreover, management of T. ni by using binomial sequential sampling should provide a good balance between cost and reliability by minimizing sample size and maintaining a high level of correct decisions (>95%) to treat or not treat.

  6. A Longitudinal Analysis of Stepfamily Relationship Quality and Adolescent Physical Health.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Todd M; Harris, Kathleen Mullan

    2017-10-01

    Approximately one third of youth are estimated to live with a biological parent and stepparent before reaching adulthood. Additional research is warranted whereby stepfamily processes are identified that drive variation in youth adjustment, particularly physical health. We examined stepfather-child, mother-child, and stepcouple relationship quality as predictors of levels and changes in adolescent physical health over time. We used a nationally representative sample of 1,233 adolescents living in biological mother-stepfather families from waves I (1994-1995) and II (1996) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We incorporated measures of stepfather-child, mother-child, and stepcouple relationship quality, as well as adolescent reports of 10 physical health symptoms at waves I and II. Structural equation modeling was used to examine associations between wave I stepfamily relationships and adolescent physical symptoms at waves I and II. We used a zero-inflated negative binomial model to establish the validity of wave II adolescent physical symptoms as a predictor of an index of diagnosed chronic illnesses by wave IV (ages 26-32 years). Stepfather-child and mother-child relationship quality were negatively correlated with concurrent levels of adolescent physical symptoms. Stepfather-child relationship quality was negatively associated with change in adolescent physical symptoms over time. Adolescents with higher levels of physical symptoms at wave II were more likely to report chronic illnesses by adulthood. Stepfather-child relationship quality is a robust predictor of adolescent physical health throughout adolescence and is linked to chronic illness diagnoses in young adulthood. Future research should explore further the mechanisms that underlie this association. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Emotional Support, Negative Interaction and DSM IV Lifetime Disorders among Older African Americans: Findings from the National Survey of American Life (NSAL)

    PubMed Central

    Lincoln, Karen D.; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Bullard, Kai McKeever; Chatters, Linda M.; Himle, Joseph A.; Woodward, Amanda Toler; Jackson, James S.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives Both emotional support and negative interaction with family members have been linked to mental health. However, few studies have examined the associations between emotional support and negative interaction and psychiatric disorders in late life. This study investigated the relationship between emotional support and negative interaction on lifetime prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders among older African Americans. Design The analyses utilized the National Survey of American Life. Methods Logistic regression and negative binomial regression analyses were used to examine the effect of emotional support and negative interaction with family members on the prevalence of lifetime DSM-IV mood and anxiety disorders. Participants Data from 786 African Americans aged 55 years and older were used. Measurement The DSM-IV World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI) was used to assess mental disorders. Three dependent variables were investigated: the prevalence of lifetime mood disorders, the prevalence of lifetime anxiety disorders, and the total number of lifetime mood and anxiety disorders. Results Multivariate analysis found that emotional support was not associated with any of the three dependent variables. Negative interaction was significantly and positively associated with the odds of having a lifetime mood disorder, a lifetime anxiety disorder and the number of lifetime mood and anxiety disorders. Conclusions This is the first study to investigate the relationship between emotional support, negative interaction with family members and psychiatric disorders among older African Americans. Negative interaction was a risk factor for mood and anxiety disorders among older African Americans, whereas emotional support was not significant. PMID:20157904

  8. Impact of negation salience and cognitive resources on negation during attitude formation.

    PubMed

    Boucher, Kathryn L; Rydell, Robert J

    2012-10-01

    Because of the increased cognitive resources required to process negations, past research has shown that explicit attitude measures are more sensitive to negations than implicit attitude measures. The current work demonstrated that the differential impact of negations on implicit and explicit attitude measures was moderated by (a) the extent to which the negation was made salient and (b) the amount of cognitive resources available during attitude formation. When negations were less visually salient, explicit but not implicit attitude measures reflected the intended valence of the negations. When negations were more visually salient, both explicit and implicit attitude measures reflected the intended valence of the negations, but only when perceivers had ample cognitive resources during encoding. Competing models of negation processing, schema-plus-tag and fusion, were examined to determine how negation salience impacts the processing of negations.

  9. Ruminative Self-Focus and Negative Affect

    PubMed Central

    Moberly, Nicholas J.; Watkins, Edward R.

    2008-01-01

    The authors conducted an experience sampling study to investigate the relationship between momentary ruminative self-focus and negative affect. Ninety-three adults recorded these variables at quasi-random intervals 8 times daily for 1 week. Scores on questionnaire measures of dispositional rumination were associated with mean levels of momentary ruminative self-focus over the experience sampling week. Concurrently, momentary ruminative self-focus was positively associated with negative affect. Cross-lagged analyses revealed that whereas ruminative self-focus predicted negative affect at a subsequent occasion, negative affect also predicted ruminative self-focus at a subsequent occasion. Decomposition of the dispositional rumination measure suggested that brooding, but not reflective pondering, was associated with higher mean levels of negative affect. Though broadly consistent with Nolen-Hoeksema's (1991) response styles theory, these results suggest that a reciprocal relationship exists between ruminative self-focus and negative affect. PMID:18489207

  10. Electrochemical cell and negative electrode therefor

    DOEpatents

    Kaun, Thomas D.

    1982-01-01

    A secondary electrochemical cell with the positive and negative electrodes separated by a molten salt electrolyte with the negative electrode comprising a particulate mixture of lithium-aluminum alloy and electrolyte and an additive selected from graphitized carbon, Raney iron or mixtures thereof. The lithium-aluminum alloy is present in the range of from about 45 to about 80 percent by volume of the negative electrode, and the electrolyte is present in an amount not less than about 10 percent by volume of the negative electrode. The additive of graphitized carbon is present in the range of from about 1 to about 10 percent by volume of the negative electrode, and the Raney iron additive is present in the range of from about 3 to about 10 percent by volume of the negative electrode.

  11. Enhanced negative feedback responses in remitted depression.

    PubMed

    Santesso, Diane L; Steele, Katherine T; Bogdan, Ryan; Holmes, Avram J; Deveney, Christen M; Meites, Tiffany M; Pizzagalli, Diego A

    2008-07-02

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by hypersensitivity to negative feedback that might involve frontocingulate dysfunction. MDD patients exhibit enhanced electrophysiological responses to negative internal (errors) and external (feedback) cues. Whether this dysfunction extends to remitted depressed (RD) individuals with a history of MDD is currently unknown. To address this issue, we examined the feedback-related negativity in RD and control participants using a probabilistic punishment learning task. Despite equivalent behavioral performance, RD participants showed larger feedback-related negativities to negative feedback relative to controls; group differences remained after accounting for residual anxiety and depressive symptoms. The present findings suggest that abnormal responses to negative feedback extend to samples at increased risk for depressive episodes in the absence of current symptoms.

  12. Pseudomonas aeruginosa gram-negative folliculitis.

    PubMed

    Leyden, J J; McGinley, K J; Mills, O H

    1979-10-01

    Three patients with sudden, unmanageable exacerbation of acne vulgaris were shown to have Gram-negative folliculitis due to Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In each patient, the source of the Pseudomonas proved to be an otitis externa infection. In contrast to previous cases of Gram-negative folliculitis due to Proteus, Escherichia coli, or Klebsiella, the anterior nares were not colonized. Treatment of the otitis externa and the Gram-negative folliculitis with acetic acid compresses and topical antibiotics led to prompt resolution without recurrence.

  13. An advanced negative hydrogen ion source

    SciTech Connect

    Goncharov, Alexey A., E-mail: gonchar@iop.kiev.ua; Dobrovolsky, Andrey N.; Goretskii, Victor P.

    2016-02-15

    The results of investigation of emission productivity of negative particles source with cesiated combined discharge are presented. A cylindrical beam of negative hydrogen ions with density about 2 A/cm{sup 2} in low noise mode on source emission aperture is obtained. The total beam current values are up to 200 mA for negative hydrogen ions and up to 1.5 A for all negative particles with high divergence after source. The source has simple design and can produce stable discharge with low level of oscillation.

  14. Care Utilization with China's New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme: Updated Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011-2012.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Donglan; Shi, Lu; Tian, Fang; Zhang, Lingling

    2016-12-01

    China's New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NRCMS), a healthcare financing system for rural residents in China, underwent significant enhancement since 2008. Studies based on pre-2008 NRCMS data showed an increase in inpatient care utilization after NRCMS coverage. However evidence was mixed for the relationship between outpatient care use and NRCMS coverage. We assessed whether enrollment in the enhanced NRCMS was associated with less delaying or foregoing medical care, as a reduction in foregoing needed care signals about removing liquidity constraint among the enrollees. Using a national sample of rural residents (N = 12,740) from the 2011-2012 wave of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we examined the association between NRCMS coverage and the likelihood of delaying or foregoing medical care (outpatient and inpatient) by survey-weighted regression models controlling for demographics, education, geographic regions, household expenditures, pre-existing chronic diseases, and access to local healthcare facilities. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to estimate the association between NRCMS coverage and number of medical visits. NRCMS coverage was significantly associated with lower odds of delaying or foregoing inpatient care (OR: 0.42, 95 % CI: 0.22-0.81). A negative but insignificant association was found between NRCMS coverage and delaying/foregoing outpatient care when ill. Among those who needed health care, the expected number of outpatient visits for NRCMS enrollees was 1.35 (95 % CI: 1.03-1.77) times of those uninsured, and the expected number of inpatient visits for NRCMS enrollees was 1.83 (95 % CI: 1.16-2.88) times of those uninsured. This study shows that the enhanced NRCMS coverage was associated with less delaying or foregoing inpatient care deemed as necessary by health professionals, which is likely to result from improved financial reimbursement of the NRCMS.

  15. Positive and negative reasons for sickness presenteeism in Norway and Sweden: a cross-sectional survey

    PubMed Central

    Johansen, Vegard; Aronsson, Gunnar; Marklund, Staffan

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This article investigates various reasons for sickness presenteeism (SP), that is, going to work despite illness. The research questions asked is: What are the main reported reasons for SP in Norway and Sweden? Design Cross-sectional survey in Norway and Sweden. Use of binomial logistic regression analysis. Participants A random sample of people aged between 20 and 60 years was obtained from complete and updated databases of the Norwegian and Swedish populations. A postal questionnaire was sent to the selected individuals, with response rate 33% (n=2843). 2533 workers responded to questions about SP during the last 12 months. Primary and secondary outcome measures The article informs about the distribution of reasons for SP in Norway and Sweden, selected by the respondents from a closed list. The article also examines which factors influence the most often reported reasons for SP. Results 56% of the Norwegian and Swedish respondents experienced SP in the previous year. The most frequently reported reasons for SP include not burden colleagues (43%), enjoy work (37%) and feeling indispensable (35%). A lower proportion of Norwegians state that they cannot afford taking sick leave adjusted OR (aOR 0.16 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.22)), while a higher proportion of Norwegians refer to that they enjoy their work (aOR=1.64 (95% CI 1.28 to 2.09)). Women and young workers more often report that they do not want to burden their colleagues. Managers (aOR=2.19 (95% CI 1.67 to 2.86)), highly educated persons and the self-employed more often report that they are indispensable. Conclusions Positive and negative reasons for SP are reported, and there are significant differences between respondents from the two countries. The response rate is low and results must be interpreted with caution. Study design Cross-sectional study. PMID:24523425

  16. Chat-Line Interaction and Negative Feedback.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iwasaki, Junko; Oliver, Rhonda

    2003-01-01

    Examines communicative interactions between native speakers (NSs) and nonnative speakers (NNSs) of Japanese on Internet relay chat, with a special focus on implicit negative feedback in the interactions. Reports that NSs of Japanese gave implicit negative feedback to their NNS partners and NNSs used the feedback in their subsequent production, but…

  17. Brilliant but Cruel: Perceptions of Negative Evaluators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Amabile, Teresa M.

    Two studies examined the hypothesis that negative evaluators will be perceived as more intelligent than positive evalutors. Two types of stimuli were used: excerpts from actual negative and positive book reviews, and versions of those excerpts that were edited so that the balance of the reviews varied but the content did not. The results strongly…

  18. Criticism and the Ethics of Negative Reviews

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peters, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an attempt to work through my own angst at a negative review of my "Education, Philosophy and Politics," reviewed recently by Ian Stronach for the "British Educational Research Journal," and to provide a therapeutic reading of the ethics of negative reviews. What of "shots in the dark" and should there…

  19. 40 CFR 52.122 - Negative declarations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.122 Negative declarations. (a) The following... negative declarations are approved as additional information to the State Implementation Plan. (1) Maricopa... Operations, Rubber Tire Manufacturing, Polymer Manufacturing, Industrial Wastewater, Ship Building and Repair...

  20. 40 CFR 52.122 - Negative declarations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.122 Negative declarations. (a) The following... negative declarations are approved as additional information to the State Implementation Plan. (1) Maricopa... Operations, Rubber Tire Manufacturing, Polymer Manufacturing, Industrial Wastewater, Ship Building and Repair...

  1. 40 CFR 52.122 - Negative declarations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.122 Negative declarations. (a) The following... negative declarations are approved as additional information to the State Implementation Plan. (1) Maricopa... Operations, Rubber Tire Manufacturing, Polymer Manufacturing, Industrial Wastewater, Ship Building and Repair...

  2. 40 CFR 52.122 - Negative declarations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.122 Negative declarations. (a) The following... negative declarations are approved as additional information to the State Implementation Plan. (1) Maricopa... Operations, Rubber Tire Manufacturing, Polymer Manufacturing, Industrial Wastewater, Ship Building and Repair...

  3. 40 CFR 52.122 - Negative declarations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.122 Negative declarations. (a) The following... negative declarations are approved as additional information to the State Implementation Plan. (1) Maricopa... Operations, Rubber Tire Manufacturing, Polymer Manufacturing, Industrial Wastewater, Ship Building and Repair...

  4. Negative Priming in Free Recall Reconsidered

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanczakowski, Maciej; Beaman, C. Philip; Jones, Dylan M.

    2016-01-01

    Negative priming in free recall is the finding of impaired memory performance when previously ignored auditory distracters become targets of encoding and retrieval. This negative priming has been attributed to an aftereffect of deploying inhibitory mechanisms that serve to suppress auditory distraction and minimize interference with learning and…

  5. Negative ion spectrometry for detecting nitrated explosives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boettger, H. G.; Yinon, J.

    1975-01-01

    Ionization procedure is modified to produce mainly negative ions by electron capture. Peaks of negative ions are monitored conventionally. Nitrated organic materials could be identified directly from sample sniff inlet stream by suitably modified mass spectrometer because of unique electronegativity which nitro group imparts to organic material.

  6. The negative ions of strontium and barium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garwan, M. A.; Kilius, L. R.; Litherland, A. E.; Nadeau, M.-J.; Zhao, X.-L.

    1990-12-01

    Recent theoretical calculations have predicted a tendency toward higher electron affinities for heavier alkaline elements. Experimental evidence has been obtained for the existence of strontium and barium negative ions created from pure elements in a caesium sputter ion source. Accelerator mass spectrometric techniques were employed to resolve the above elemental negative ions from the interfering molecular species.

  7. Suggestibility and negative priming: two replication studies.

    PubMed

    David, Daniel; Brown, Richard J

    2002-07-01

    Research suggests that inhibiting the effect of irrelevant stimuli on subsequent thought and action (cognitive inhibition) may be an important component of suggestibility. Two small correlation studies were conducted to address the relationship between different aspects of suggestibility and individual differences in cognitive inhibition, operationalized as the degree of negative priming generated by to-be-ignored stimuli in a semantic categorization task. The first study found significant positive correlations between negative priming, hypnotic suggestibility, and creative imagination; a significant negative correlation was obtained between negative priming and interrogative suggestibility, demonstrating the discriminant validity of the study results. The second study replicated the correlation between negative priming and hypnotic suggestibility, using a different suggestibility measurement procedure that assessed subjective experience and hypnotic involuntariness as well as objective responses to suggestions. These studies support the notion that the ability to engage in cognitive inhibition may be an important component of hypnotic responsivity and maybe of other forms of suggestibility.

  8. Negative incidental emotions augment fairness sensitivity.

    PubMed

    Liu, Cuizhen; Chai, Jing Wen; Yu, Rongjun

    2016-04-22

    Previous studies have shown that task-unrelated emotions induced incidentally exert carryover effects on individuals' subsequent decisions in financial negotiations. However, the specificity of these emotion effects are not clear. In three experiments, we systematically investigated the role of seven transiently induced basic emotions (disgust, sadness, anger, fear, happiness, surprise and neutral) on rejection of unfair offers using the ultimatum game. We found that all negative emotions (disgust, sadness, anger and fear), but not happiness or surprise, significantly increased rejection rates, suggesting that the effect of incidental negative emotions on fairness is not specific to the type of negative emotion. Our findings highlight the role of fleeting emotions in biasing decision-making processes and suggest that all incidental negative emotions exert similar effects on fairness sensitivity, possibly by potentiating attention towards negative aspects of the situation.

  9. Negative incidental emotions augment fairness sensitivity

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Cuizhen; Chai, Jing Wen; Yu, Rongjun

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that task-unrelated emotions induced incidentally exert carryover effects on individuals’ subsequent decisions in financial negotiations. However, the specificity of these emotion effects are not clear. In three experiments, we systematically investigated the role of seven transiently induced basic emotions (disgust, sadness, anger, fear, happiness, surprise and neutral) on rejection of unfair offers using the ultimatum game. We found that all negative emotions (disgust, sadness, anger and fear), but not happiness or surprise, significantly increased rejection rates, suggesting that the effect of incidental negative emotions on fairness is not specific to the type of negative emotion. Our findings highlight the role of fleeting emotions in biasing decision-making processes and suggest that all incidental negative emotions exert similar effects on fairness sensitivity, possibly by potentiating attention towards negative aspects of the situation. PMID:27101931

  10. Methodological issues in negative symptom trials.

    PubMed

    Marder, Stephen R; Daniel, David G; Alphs, Larry; Awad, A George; Keefe, Richard S E

    2011-03-01

    Individuals from academia, the pharmaceutical industry, and the US Food and Drug Administration used a workshop format to discuss important methodological issues in the design of trials of pharmacological agents for improving negative symptoms in schizophrenia. The issues addressed included the need for a coprimary functional measure for registration trials; the characteristics of individuals who should enter negative symptom trials; the optimal duration for a proof-of-concept or registration trial; the optimal design of a study of a broad-spectrum agent that treats both positive and negative symptoms or a co-medication that is added to an antipsychotic; the relative strengths and weaknesses of available instruments for measuring negative symptoms; the definition of clinically meaningful improvement for these trials; and whether drugs can be approved for a subdomain of negative symptoms.

  11. Methodological Issues in Negative Symptom Trials

    PubMed Central

    Marder, Stephen R.; Daniel, David G.; Alphs, Larry; Awad, A. George; Keefe, Richard S. E.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals from academia, the pharmaceutical industry, and the US Food and Drug Administration used a workshop format to discuss important methodological issues in the design of trials of pharmacological agents for improving negative symptoms in schizophrenia. The issues addressed included the need for a coprimary functional measure for registration trials; the characteristics of individuals who should enter negative symptom trials; the optimal duration for a proof-of-concept or registration trial; the optimal design of a study of a broad-spectrum agent that treats both positive and negative symptoms or a co-medication that is added to an antipsychotic; the relative strengths and weaknesses of available instruments for measuring negative symptoms; the definition of clinically meaningful improvement for these trials; and whether drugs can be approved for a subdomain of negative symptoms. PMID:21270473

  12. Negated bio-events: analysis and identification

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Negation occurs frequently in scientific literature, especially in biomedical literature. It has previously been reported that around 13% of sentences found in biomedical research articles contain negation. Historically, the main motivation for identifying negated events has been to ensure their exclusion from lists of extracted interactions. However, recently, there has been a growing interest in negative results, which has resulted in negation detection being identified as a key challenge in biomedical relation extraction. In this article, we focus on the problem of identifying negated bio-events, given gold standard event annotations. Results We have conducted a detailed analysis of three open access bio-event corpora containing negation information (i.e., GENIA Event, BioInfer and BioNLP’09 ST), and have identified the main types of negated bio-events. We have analysed the key aspects of a machine learning solution to the problem of detecting negated events, including selection of negation cues, feature engineering and the choice of learning algorithm. Combining the best solutions for each aspect of the problem, we propose a novel framework for the identification of negated bio-events. We have evaluated our system on each of the three open access corpora mentioned above. The performance of the system significantly surpasses the best results previously reported on the BioNLP’09 ST corpus, and achieves even better results on the GENIA Event and BioInfer corpora, both of which contain more varied and complex events. Conclusions Recently, in the field of biomedical text mining, the development and enhancement of event-based systems has received significant interest. The ability to identify negated events is a key performance element for these systems. We have conducted the first detailed study on the analysis and identification of negated bio-events. Our proposed framework can be integrated with state-of-the-art event extraction systems. The

  13. How Do Negative Emotions Impair Self-Control? A Neural Model of Negative Urgency

    PubMed Central

    Chester, David S.; Lynam, Donald R.; Milich, Richard; Powell, David K.; Andersen, Anders H.; DeWall, C. Nathan

    2016-01-01

    Self-control often fails when people experience negative emotions. Negative urgency represents the dispositional tendency to experience such self-control failure in response to negative affect. The neural underpinnings of negative urgency are not fully understood, nor is the more general phenomenon of self-control failure in response to negative emotions. Previous theorizing suggests that an insufficient, inhibitory response from the prefrontal cortex may be the culprit behind such self-control failure. However, we entertained an alternative hypothesis: negative emotions lead to self-control failure because they excessively tax inhibitory regions of the prefrontal cortex. Using fMRI, we compared the neural activity of people high in negative urgency with controls on an emotional, inhibitory Go/No-Go task. While experiencing negative (but not positive or neutral) emotions, participants high in negative urgency showed greater recruitment of inhibitory brain regions than controls. Suggesting a compensatory function, inhibitory accuracy among participants high in negative urgency was associated with greater prefrontal recruitment. Greater activity in the anterior insula on negatively-valenced, inhibitory trials predicted greater substance abuse one month and one year after the MRI scan among individuals high in negative urgency. These results suggest that, among people whose negative emotions often lead to self-control failure, excessive reactivity of the brain’s regulatory resources may be the culprit. PMID:26892861

  14. Modeling Polio Data Using the First Order Non-Negative Integer-Valued Autoregressive, INAR(1), Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazifedan, Turaj; Shitan, Mahendran

    Time series data may consists of counts, such as the number of road accidents, the number of patients in a certain hospital, the number of customers waiting for service at a certain time and etc. When the value of the observations are large it is usual to use Gaussian Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process to model the time series. However if the observed counts are small, it is not appropriate to use ARMA process to model the observed phenomenon. In such cases we need to model the time series data by using Non-Negative Integer valued Autoregressive (INAR) process. The modeling of counts data is based on the binomial thinning operator. In this paper we illustrate the modeling of counts data using the monthly number of Poliomyelitis data in United States between January 1970 until December 1983. We applied the AR(1), Poisson regression model and INAR(1) model and the suitability of these models were assessed by using the Index of Agreement(I.A.). We found that INAR(1) model is more appropriate in the sense it had a better I.A. and it is natural since the data are counts.

  15. Information Filtering Based on Users' Negative Opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Qiang; Li, Yang; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2013-05-01

    The process of heat conduction (HC) has recently found application in the information filtering [Zhang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett.99, 154301 (2007)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. The classical HC model predicts users' potential interested objects based on their interesting objects regardless to the negative opinions. In terms of the users' rating scores, we present an improved user-based HC (UHC) information model by taking into account users' positive and negative opinions. Firstly, the objects rated by users are divided into positive and negative categories, then the predicted interesting and dislike object lists are generated by the UHC model. Finally, the recommendation lists are constructed by filtering out the dislike objects from the interesting lists. By implementing the new model based on nine similarity measures, the experimental results for MovieLens and Netflix datasets show that the new model considering negative opinions could greatly enhance the accuracy, measured by the average ranking score, from 0.049 to 0.036 for Netflix and from 0.1025 to 0.0570 for Movielens dataset, reduced by 26.53% and 44.39%, respectively. Since users prefer to give positive ratings rather than negative ones, the negative opinions contain much more information than the positive ones, the negative opinions, therefore, are very important for understanding users' online collective behaviors and improving the performance of HC model.

  16. Ice nucleation triggered by negative pressure.

    PubMed

    Marcolli, Claudia

    2017-11-30

    Homogeneous ice nucleation needs supercooling of more than 35 K to become effective. When pressure is applied to water, the melting and the freezing points both decrease. Conversely, melting and freezing temperatures increase under negative pressure, i.e. when water is stretched. This study presents an extrapolation of homogeneous ice nucleation temperatures from positive to negative pressures as a basis for further exploration of ice nucleation under negative pressure. It predicts that increasing negative pressure at temperatures below about 262 K eventually results in homogeneous ice nucleation while at warmer temperature homogeneous cavitation, i. e. bubble nucleation, dominates. Negative pressure occurs locally and briefly when water is stretched due to mechanical shock, sonic waves, or fragmentation. The occurrence of such transient negative pressure should suffice to trigger homogeneous ice nucleation at large supercooling in the absence of ice-nucleating surfaces. In addition, negative pressure can act together with ice-inducing surfaces to enhance their intrinsic ice nucleation efficiency. Dynamic ice nucleation can be used to improve properties and uniformity of frozen products by applying ultrasonic fields and might also be relevant for the freezing of large drops in rainclouds.

  17. Negative HPV screening test predicts low cervical cancer risk better than negative Pap test

    Cancer.gov

    Based on a study that included more than 1 million women, investigators at NCI have determined that a negative test for HPV infection compared to a negative Pap test provides greater safety, or assurance, against future risk of cervical cancer.

  18. On the colour variations of negative superhumps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imada, Akira; Yanagisawa, Kenshi; Kawai, Nobuyuki

    2018-06-01

    We present simultaneous g΄, Rc, and Ic photometry of the notable dwarf nova ER UMa during the 2011 season. Our photometry revealed that the brightness maxima of negative superhumps coincide with the bluest peaks in g΄ - Ic colour variations. We also found that the amplitudes of negative superhumps are the largest in the g΄ band. These observed properties are significantly different from those observed in early and positive superhumps. Our findings are consistent with a tilted disk model as the light source of negative superhumps.

  19. The brief negative symptom scale: psychometric properties.

    PubMed

    Kirkpatrick, Brian; Strauss, Gregory P; Nguyen, Linh; Fischer, Bernard A; Daniel, David G; Cienfuegos, Angel; Marder, Stephen R

    2011-03-01

    The participants in the NIMH-MATRICS Consensus Development Conference on Negative Symptoms recommended that an instrument be developed that measured blunted affect, alogia, asociality, anhedonia, and avolition. The Brief Negative Symptom Scale (BNSS) is a 13-item instrument designed for clinical trials and other studies that measures these 5 domains. The interrater, test-retest, and internal consistency of the instrument were strong, with respective intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.93 for the BNSS total score and values of 0.89-0.95 for individual subscales. Comparisons with positive symptoms and other negative symptom instruments supported the discriminant and concurrent validity of the instrument.

  20. How does negative emotion cause false memories?

    PubMed

    Brainerd, C J; Stein, L M; Silveira, R A; Rohenkohl, G; Reyna, V F

    2008-09-01

    Remembering negative events can stimulate high levels of false memory, relative to remembering neutral events. In experiments in which the emotional valence of encoded materials was manipulated with their arousal levels controlled, valence produced a continuum of memory falsification. Falsification was highest for negative materials, intermediate for neutral materials, and lowest for positive materials. Conjoint-recognition analysis produced a simple process-level explanation: As one progresses from positive to neutral to negative valence, false memory increases because (a) the perceived meaning resemblance between false and true items increases and (b) subjects are less able to use verbatim memories of true items to suppress errors.

  1. Negative Urgency Is Associated With Heightened Negative Affect and Urge During Tobacco Abstinence in Regular Smokers

    PubMed Central

    Park, Annie D.; Farrahi, Layla N.; Pang, Raina D.; Guillot, Casey R.; Aguirre, Claudia G.; Leventhal, Adam M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Negative urgency—the tendency to act rashly during negative affective states—is a risk factor for regular cigarette smoking. This human laboratory study tested a novel theoretical model of the underlying mechanisms linking negative urgency and smoking motivation, which purports that smokers with high negative urgency are at increased susceptibility to abstinence-induced increases in negative affect, which, in turn, provokes the urge to smoke to suppress negative affect. Method: Smokers (N = 180, >10 cigarettes/day) attended a baseline session at which they completed self-report measures of negative urgency and other co-factors and subsequently attended two counterbalanced within-subject experimental sessions (i.e., 16 hours of smoking abstinence or smoking as usual). At both experimental sessions, self-reported tobacco withdrawal symptoms, affect, and smoking urge were assessed. Results: Negative urgency was associated with larger abstinence-induced increases in tobacco withdrawal symptoms, negative affect, and urge to smoke to alleviate negative affect, both with and without controlling for anxiety, depression, tobacco dependence, and sensation seeking (βs > .18, ps < .05). The association between negative urgency and abstinence-induced increases in urge to smoke to alleviate negative affect was mediated by greater abstinence-induced increases in negative affect (βs > .062, ps = .01). Conclusions: These results provide initial support of this model by providing evidence that smokers with higher (vs. lower) negative urgency may be more prone to greater negative affect during withdrawal, which in turn may promote urge to smoke to suppress negative emotion. Research extending this model to other settings, measures, and methodological approaches may be fruitful. PMID:27588535

  2. Negative Urgency Is Associated With Heightened Negative Affect and Urge During Tobacco Abstinence in Regular Smokers.

    PubMed

    Park, Annie D; Farrahi, Layla N; Pang, Raina D; Guillot, Casey R; Aguirre, Claudia G; Leventhal, Adam M

    2016-09-01

    Negative urgency-the tendency to act rashly during negative affective states-is a risk factor for regular cigarette smoking. This human laboratory study tested a novel theoretical model of the underlying mechanisms linking negative urgency and smoking motivation, which purports that smokers with high negative urgency are at increased susceptibility to abstinence-induced increases in negative affect, which, in turn, provokes the urge to smoke to suppress negative affect. Smokers (N = 180, >10 cigarettes/day) attended a baseline session at which they completed self-report measures of negative urgency and other co-factors and subsequently attended two counterbalanced within-subject experimental sessions (i.e., 16 hours of smoking abstinence or smoking as usual). At both experimental sessions, self-reported tobacco withdrawal symptoms, affect, and smoking urge were assessed. Negative urgency was associated with larger abstinence-induced increases in tobacco withdrawal symptoms, negative affect, and urge to smoke to alleviate negative affect, both with and without controlling for anxiety, depression, tobacco dependence, and sensation seeking (βs > .18, ps < .05). The association between negative urgency and abstinence-induced increases in urge to smoke to alleviate negative affect was mediated by greater abstinence-induced increases in negative affect (βs > .062, ps = .01). These results provide initial support of this model by providing evidence that smokers with higher (vs. lower) negative urgency may be more prone to greater negative affect during withdrawal, which in turn may promote urge to smoke to suppress negative emotion. Research extending this model to other settings, measures, and methodological approaches may be fruitful.

  3. Identifying cholera "hotspots" in Uganda: An analysis of cholera surveillance data from 2011 to 2016

    PubMed Central

    Bwire, Godfrey; Sack, David A.; Nakinsige, Anne; Naigaga, Martha; Debes, Amanda K.; Ngwa, Moise C.; Brooks, W. Abdullah; Garimoi Orach, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    Background Despite advance in science and technology for prevention, detection and treatment of cholera, this infectious disease remains a major public health problem in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive. The aim of this study was to identify cholera hotspots in Uganda to guide the development of a roadmap for prevention, control and elimination of cholera in the country. Methodology/Principle findings We obtained district level confirmed cholera outbreak data from 2011 to 2016 from the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Population and rainfall data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and water, sanitation and hygiene data from the Ministry of Water and Environment. A spatial scan test was performed to identify the significantly high risk clusters. Cholera hotspots were defined as districts whose center fell within a significantly high risk cluster or where a significantly high risk cluster was completely superimposed onto a district. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. In total 11,030 cases of cholera were reported during the 6-year period. 37(33%) of 112 districts reported cholera outbreaks in one of the six years, and 20 (18%) districts experienced cholera at least twice in those years. We identified 22 districts as high risk for cholera, of which 13 were near a border of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while 9 districts were near a border of Kenya. The relative risk of having cholera inside the high-risk districts (hotspots) were 2 to 22 times higher than elsewhere in the country. In total, 7 million people were within cholera hotspots. The negative binomial component of the ZINB model shows people living near a lake or the Nile river were at increased risk for cholera (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97 to 0.99, p < .01); people living near the border of DRC/Kenya or higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts were increased

  4. Identifying cholera "hotspots" in Uganda: An analysis of cholera surveillance data from 2011 to 2016.

    PubMed

    Bwire, Godfrey; Ali, Mohammad; Sack, David A; Nakinsige, Anne; Naigaga, Martha; Debes, Amanda K; Ngwa, Moise C; Brooks, W Abdullah; Garimoi Orach, Christopher

    2017-12-01

    Despite advance in science and technology for prevention, detection and treatment of cholera, this infectious disease remains a major public health problem in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive. The aim of this study was to identify cholera hotspots in Uganda to guide the development of a roadmap for prevention, control and elimination of cholera in the country. We obtained district level confirmed cholera outbreak data from 2011 to 2016 from the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Population and rainfall data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and water, sanitation and hygiene data from the Ministry of Water and Environment. A spatial scan test was performed to identify the significantly high risk clusters. Cholera hotspots were defined as districts whose center fell within a significantly high risk cluster or where a significantly high risk cluster was completely superimposed onto a district. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. In total 11,030 cases of cholera were reported during the 6-year period. 37(33%) of 112 districts reported cholera outbreaks in one of the six years, and 20 (18%) districts experienced cholera at least twice in those years. We identified 22 districts as high risk for cholera, of which 13 were near a border of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while 9 districts were near a border of Kenya. The relative risk of having cholera inside the high-risk districts (hotspots) were 2 to 22 times higher than elsewhere in the country. In total, 7 million people were within cholera hotspots. The negative binomial component of the ZINB model shows people living near a lake or the Nile river were at increased risk for cholera (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97 to 0.99, p < .01); people living near the border of DRC/Kenya or higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts were increased risk for cholera in a district (IRR = 0

  5. How Teachers Inadvertently Reinforce Negative Behavior of Elementary School Students through Negative Communications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frederick, Barbara

    This paper reviews ways in which teachers inadvertently reinforce negative behavior of elementary school students through negative verbal or nonverbal communication. Discussion first points out differences between nonverbal and verbal communication, and then focuses on consequences of negative communication for children. Special attention is given…

  6. The Negative Testing and Negative Generation Effects Are Eliminated by Delay

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mulligan, Neil W.; Peterson, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    Although retrieval often enhances subsequent memory (the testing effect), a negative testing effect has recently been documented in which prior retrieval harms later recall compared with restudying. The negative testing effect was predicated on the negative generation effect and the item-specific-relational framework. The present experiments…

  7. 40 CFR 52.2900 - Negative declaration.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... § 52.2900 Negative declaration. (a) Air Pollution Implementation Plan for the Commonwealth of the... declaration indicating no major lead sources and continued attainment and maintenance of the National Standards for lead. [51 FR 40799, Nov. 10, 1986] ...

  8. 40 CFR 52.222 - Negative declarations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... County Air Pollution Control District. (i) Industrial Wastewater, Plastic Parts Coating: Business... Pollution Control District. (i) Aerospace Coatings; Industrial Waste Water Treatment; Plastic Parts Coating..., 2011. (a) The following air pollution control districts submitted negative declarations for volatile...

  9. Microwave gain medium with negative refractive index.

    PubMed

    Ye, Dexin; Chang, Kihun; Ran, Lixin; Xin, Hao

    2014-12-19

    Artificial effective media are attractive because of the fantastic applications they may enable, such as super lensing and electromagnetic invisibility. However, the inevitable loss due to their strongly dispersive nature is one of the fundamental challenges preventing such applications from becoming a reality. In this study, we demonstrate an effective gain medium based on negative resistance, to overcompensate the loss of a conventional passive metamaterial, meanwhile keeping its original negative-index property. Energy conservation-based theory, full-wave simulation and experimental measurement show that a fabricated sample consisting of conventional sub-wavelength building blocks with embedded microwave tunnel diodes exhibits a band-limited Lorentzian dispersion simultaneously with a negative refractive index and a net gain. Our work provides experimental evidence to the assertion that a stable net gain in negative-index gain medium is achievable, proposing a potential solution for the critical challenge current metamateiral technology faces in practical applications.

  10. Negative Priming in Free Recall Reconsidered

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Negative priming in free recall is the finding of impaired memory performance when previously ignored auditory distracters become targets of encoding and retrieval. This negative priming has been attributed to an aftereffect of deploying inhibitory mechanisms that serve to suppress auditory distraction and minimize interference with learning and retrieval of task-relevant information. In 6 experiments, we tested the inhibitory account of the effect of negative priming in free recall against alternative accounts. We found that ignoring auditory distracters is neither sufficient nor necessary to produce the effect of negative priming in free recall. Instead, the effect is more readily accounted for by a buildup of proactive interference occurring whenever 2 successively presented lists of words are drawn from the same semantic category. PMID:26595066

  11. Negative feedback system reduces pump oscillations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenmann, W.

    1967-01-01

    External negative feedback system counteracts low frequency oscillations in rocket engine propellant pumps. The system uses a control piston to sense pump discharge fluid on one side and a gas pocket on the other.

  12. The strategic significance of negative externalities.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2012-12-01

    Negative externalities have competitive relevance in a market when they have selective impacts as, for : example, when a product in use imposes greater costs on consumers of rival products than on other people. : Because managers have discretion ...

  13. Titan's plasma interaction: photoelectrons and negative ions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coates, Coates; Welbrock, Anne; Desai, Ravi; Waite, Hunter

    2016-06-01

    We present a review of some of the most important results from the CAPS electron spectrometer.These include the role of photoelectrons and polar wind escape processes, and remarkable negative ion observations.

  14. Metamaterials with gradient negative index of refraction.

    PubMed

    Pinchuk, Anatoliy O; Schatz, George C

    2007-10-01

    We propose a new metamaterial with a gradient negative index of refraction, which can focus a collimated beam of light coming from a distant object. A slab of the negative refractive index metamaterial has a focal length that can be tuned by changing the gradient of the negative refractive index. A thin metal film pierced with holes of appropriate size or spacing between them can be used as a metamaterial with the gradient negative index of refraction. We use finite-difference time-domain calculations to show the focusing of a plane electromagnetic wave passing through a system of equidistantly spaced holes in a metal slab with decreasing diameters toward the edges of the slab.

  15. Production of negatively charged radioactive ion beams

    DOE PAGES

    Liu, Y.; Stracener, D. W.; Stora, T.

    2017-02-15

    Beams of short-lived radioactive nuclei are needed for frontier experimental research in nuclear structure, reactions, and astrophysics. Negatively charged radioactive ion beams have unique advantages and allow for the use of a tandem accelerator for post-acceleration, which can provide the highest beam quality and continuously variable energies. Negative ion beams can be obtained with high intensity and some unique beam purification techniques based on differences in electronegativity and chemical reactivity can be used to provide beams with high purity. This article describes the production of negative radioactive ion beams at the former holifield radioactive ion beam facility at Oak Ridgemore » National Laboratory and at the CERN ISOLDE facility with emphasis on the development of the negative ion sources employed at these two facilities.« less

  16. Superconductive microstrip exhibiting negative differential resistivity

    DOEpatents

    Huebener, R.P.; Gallus, D.E.

    1975-10-28

    A device capable of exhibiting negative differential electrical resistivity over a range of values of current and voltage is formed by vapor- depositing a thin layer of a material capable of exhibiting superconductivity on an insulating substrate, establishing electrical connections at opposite ends of the deposited strip, and cooling the alloy into its superconducting range. The device will exhibit negative differential resistivity when biased in the current- induced resistive state.

  17. The Peculiar Negative Greenhouse Effect Over Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sejas, S.; Taylor, P. C.; Cai, M.

    2017-12-01

    Greenhouse gases warm the climate system by reducing the energy loss to space through the greenhouse effect. Thus, a common way to measure the strength of the greenhouse effect is by taking the difference between the surface longwave (LW) emission and the outgoing LW radiation. Based on this definition, a paradoxical negative greenhouse effect is found over the Antarctic Plateau, which suprisingly indicates that greenhouse gases enhance energy loss to space. Using 13 years of NASA satellite observations, we verify the existence of the negative greenhouse effect and find that the magnitude and sign of the greenhouse effect varies seasonally and spectrally. A previous explanation attributes the negative greenhouse effect solely to stratospheric CO2 and warmer than surface stratospheric temperatures. However, we surprisingly find that the negative greenhouse effect is predominantly caused by tropospheric water vapor. A novel principle-based explanation provides the first complete account of the Antarctic Plateau's negative greenhouse effect indicating that it is controlled by the vertical variation of temperature and greenhouse gas absorption strength. Our findings indicate that the strong surface-based temperature inversion and scarcity of free tropospheric water vapor over the Antarctic Plateau cause the negative greenhouse effect. These are climatological features uniquely found in the Antarctic Plateau region, explaining why the greenhouse effect is positive everywhere else.

  18. Negative capacitance in multidomain ferroelectric superlattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubko, Pavlo; Wojdeł, Jacek C.; Hadjimichael, Marios; Fernandez-Pena, Stéphanie; Sené, Anaïs; Luk'Yanchuk, Igor; Triscone, Jean-Marc; Íñiguez, Jorge

    2016-06-01

    The stability of spontaneous electrical polarization in ferroelectrics is fundamental to many of their current applications, which range from the simple electric cigarette lighter to non-volatile random access memories. Research on nanoscale ferroelectrics reveals that their behaviour is profoundly different from that in bulk ferroelectrics, which could lead to new phenomena with potential for future devices. As ferroelectrics become thinner, maintaining a stable polarization becomes increasingly challenging. On the other hand, intentionally destabilizing this polarization can cause the effective electric permittivity of a ferroelectric to become negative, enabling it to behave as a negative capacitance when integrated in a heterostructure. Negative capacitance has been proposed as a way of overcoming fundamental limitations on the power consumption of field-effect transistors. However, experimental demonstrations of this phenomenon remain contentious. The prevalent interpretations based on homogeneous polarization models are difficult to reconcile with the expected strong tendency for domain formation, but the effect of domains on negative capacitance has received little attention. Here we report negative capacitance in a model system of multidomain ferroelectric-dielectric superlattices across a wide range of temperatures, in both the ferroelectric and paraelectric phases. Using a phenomenological model, we show that domain-wall motion not only gives rise to negative permittivity, but can also enhance, rather than limit, its temperature range. Our first-principles-based atomistic simulations provide detailed microscopic insight into the origin of this phenomenon, identifying the dominant contribution of near-interface layers and paving the way for its future exploitation.

  19. Detecting Negative Obstacles by Use of Radar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mittskus, Anthony; Lux, James

    2006-01-01

    Robotic land vehicles would be equipped with small radar systems to detect negative obstacles, according to a proposal. The term "negative obstacles" denotes holes, ditches, and any other terrain features characterized by abrupt steep downslopes that could be hazardous for vehicles. Video cameras and other optically based obstacle-avoidance sensors now installed on some robotic vehicles cannot detect obstacles under adverse lighting conditions. Even under favorable lighting conditions, they cannot detect negative obstacles. A radar system according to the proposal would be of the frequency-modulation/ continuous-wave (FM/CW) type. It would be installed on a vehicle, facing forward, possibly with a downward slant of the main lobe(s) of the radar beam(s) (see figure). It would utilize one or more wavelength(s) of the order of centimeters. Because such wavelengths are comparable to the characteristic dimensions of terrain features associated with negative hazards, a significant amount of diffraction would occur at such features. In effect, the diffraction would afford a limited ability to see corners and to see around corners. Hence, the system might utilize diffraction to detect corners associated with negative obstacles. At the time of reporting the information for this article, preliminary analyses of diffraction at simple negative obstacles had been performed, but an explicit description of how the system would utilize diffraction was not available.

  20. Negative ion kinetics in RF glow discharges

    SciTech Connect

    Gottscho, R.A.; Gacbe, C.E.

    1986-04-01

    Using temporally and spatially resolved laser spectroscopy, the authors have determined the identities, approximate concentrations, effects on the local field, and kinetics of formation and loss of negative ions in RF discharges. CI/sup -/ and BCI/sub 3//sup -/ are the dominant negative ions found in low-frequency discharges through CI/sub 2/ and BCI/sub 3/, respectively. The electron affinity for CI is measured to be 3.6118 +- 0.0005 eV. Negative ion kinetics are strongly affected by application of the RF field. Formation of negative ions by attachment of slow electrons in RF discharges is governed by the extent and duration of electronmore » energy relaxation. Similarly, destruction of negative ions by collisional detachment and field extraction is dependent upon ion energy modulation. Thus, at low frequency, the anion density peaks at the beginning of the anodic and cathodic half-cycles after electrons have attached but before detachment and extraction have had time to occur. At higher frequencies, electrons have insufficient time to attach before they are reheated and the instantaneous anion density in the sheath is greatly reduced. When the negative ion density is comparable to the positive ion density, the plasma potential is observed to lie below the anode potential, double layers form between sheath and plasma, and anions and electrons are accelerated by large sheath fields to electrode surfaces.« less

  1. Negative energy seen by accelerated observers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, L. H.; Roman, Thomas A.

    2013-04-01

    The sampled negative energy density seen by inertial observers, in arbitrary quantum states is limited by quantum inequalities, which take the form of an inverse relation between the magnitude and duration of the negative energy. The quantum inequalities severely limit the utilization of negative energy to produce gross macroscopic effects, such as violations of the second law of thermodynamics. The restrictions on the sampled energy density along the worldlines of accelerated observers are much weaker than for inertial observers. Here we will illustrate this with several explicit examples. We consider the worldline of a particle undergoing sinusoidal motion in space in the presence of a single mode squeezed vacuum state of the electromagnetic field. We show that it is possible for the integrated energy density along such a worldline to become arbitrarily negative at a constant average rate. Thus the averaged weak energy condition is violated in these examples. This can be the case even when the particle moves at nonrelativistic speeds. We use the Raychaudhuri equation to show that there can be net defocusing of a congruence of these accelerated worldlines. This defocusing is an operational signature of the negative integrated energy density. These results in no way invalidate nor undermine either the validity or utility of the quantum inequalities for inertial observers. In particular, they do not change previous constraints on the production of macroscopic effects with negative energy, e.g., the maintenance of traversable wormholes.

  2. Negative Correlations in Visual Cortical Networks

    PubMed Central

    Chelaru, Mircea I.; Dragoi, Valentin

    2016-01-01

    The amount of information encoded by cortical circuits depends critically on the capacity of nearby neurons to exhibit trial-to-trial (noise) correlations in their responses. Depending on their sign and relationship to signal correlations, noise correlations can either increase or decrease the population code accuracy relative to uncorrelated neuronal firing. Whereas positive noise correlations have been extensively studied using experimental and theoretical tools, the functional role of negative correlations in cortical circuits has remained elusive. We addressed this issue by performing multiple-electrode recording in the superficial layers of the primary visual cortex (V1) of alert monkey. Despite the fact that positive noise correlations decayed exponentially with the difference in the orientation preference between cells, negative correlations were uniformly distributed across the population. Using a statistical model for Fisher Information estimation, we found that a mild increase in negative correlations causes a sharp increase in network accuracy even when mean correlations were held constant. To examine the variables controlling the strength of negative correlations, we implemented a recurrent spiking network model of V1. We found that increasing local inhibition and reducing excitation causes a decrease in the firing rates of neurons while increasing the negative noise correlations, which in turn increase the population signal-to-noise ratio and network accuracy. Altogether, these results contribute to our understanding of the neuronal mechanism involved in the generation of negative correlations and their beneficial impact on cortical circuit function. PMID:25217468

  3. What makes dreams positive or negative: relations to fundamental dimensions of positive and negative mood.

    PubMed

    Kallmeyer, R J; Chang, E C

    1998-02-01

    The present study examined the general emotional content of dreams reported by individuals who typically experience "positive" versus "negative" dreams. Self-reports of the 153 participants indicated that positive versus negative dreamers (ns = 42 and 24, respectively) generally experienced more positive emotions, e.g., joviality, self-assurance, and fewer negative emotions, e.g., fear, sadness. No differences were found in the self-reports of the participants in the experience of surprise, guilt, fatigue, and shyness between the groups, hence, positive and negative dreams do not appear to reflect simply more positive and fewer negative emotions, respectively.

  4. Sensitivity of negative subsequent memory and task-negative effects to age and associative memory performance.

    PubMed

    de Chastelaine, Marianne; Mattson, Julia T; Wang, Tracy H; Donley, Brian E; Rugg, Michael D

    2015-07-01

    The present fMRI experiment employed associative recognition to investigate the relationships between age and encoding-related negative subsequent memory effects and task-negative effects. Young, middle-aged and older adults (total n=136) were scanned while they made relational judgments on visually presented word pairs. In a later memory test, the participants made associative recognition judgments on studied, rearranged (items studied on different trials) and new pairs. Several regions, mostly localized to the default mode network, demonstrated negative subsequent memory effects in an across age-group analysis. All but one of these regions also demonstrated task-negative effects, although there was no correlation between the size of the respective effects. Whereas negative subsequent memory effects demonstrated a graded attenuation with age, task-negative effects declined markedly between the young and the middle-aged group, but showed no further reduction in the older group. Negative subsequent memory effects did not correlate with memory performance within any age group. By contrast, in the older group only, task-negative effects predicted later memory performance. The findings demonstrate that negative subsequent memory and task-negative effects depend on dissociable neural mechanisms and likely reflect distinct cognitive processes. The relationship between task-negative effects and memory performance in the older group might reflect the sensitivity of these effects to variations in amount of age-related neuropathology. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Memory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Potential negative ecological effects of corridors.

    PubMed

    Haddad, Nick M; Brudvig, Lars A; Damschen, Ellen I; Evans, Daniel M; Johnson, Brenda L; Levey, Douglas J; Orrock, John L; Resasco, Julian; Sullivan, Lauren L; Tewksbury, Josh J; Wagner, Stephanie A; Weldon, Aimee J

    2014-10-01

    Despite many studies showing that landscape corridors increase dispersal and species richness for disparate taxa, concerns persist that corridors can have unintended negative effects. In particular, some of the same mechanisms that underlie positive effects of corridors on species of conservation interest may also increase the spread and impact of antagonistic species (e.g., predators and pathogens), foster negative effects of edges, increase invasion by exotic species, increase the spread of unwanted disturbances such as fire, or increase population synchrony and thus reduce persistence. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis to evaluate the prevalence of each of these negative effects. We found no evidence that corridors increase unwanted disturbance or non-native species invasion; however, these have not been well-studied concerns (1 and 6 studies, respectively). Other effects of corridors were more often studied and yielded inconsistent results; mean effect sizes were indistinguishable from zero. The effect of edges on abundances of target species was as likely to be positive as negative. Corridors were as likely to have no effect on antagonists or population synchrony as they were to increase those negative effects. We found 3 deficiencies in the literature. First, despite studies on how corridors affect predators, there are few studies of related consequences for prey population size and persistence. Second, properly designed studies of negative corridor effects are needed in natural corridors at scales larger than those achievable in experimental systems. Third, studies are needed to test more targeted hypotheses about when corridor-mediated effects on invasive species or disturbance may be negative for species of management concern. Overall, we found no overarching support for concerns that construction and maintenance of habitat corridors may result in unintended negative consequences. Negative edge effects may be mitigated by widening

  6. The Interplay Among Children's Negative Family Representations, Visual Processing of Negative Emotions, and Externalizing Symptoms.

    PubMed

    Davies, Patrick T; Coe, Jesse L; Hentges, Rochelle F; Sturge-Apple, Melissa L; van der Kloet, Erika

    2018-03-01

    This study examined the transactional interplay among children's negative family representations, visual processing of negative emotions, and externalizing symptoms in a sample of 243 preschool children (M age  = 4.60 years). Children participated in three annual measurement occasions. Cross-lagged autoregressive models were conducted with multimethod, multi-informant data to identify mediational pathways. Consistent with schema-based top-down models, negative family representations were associated with attention to negative faces in an eye-tracking task and their externalizing symptoms. Children's negative representations of family relationships specifically predicted decreases in their attention to negative emotions, which, in turn, was associated with subsequent increases in their externalizing symptoms. Follow-up analyses indicated that the mediational role of diminished attention to negative emotions was particularly pronounced for angry faces. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  7. Should the poor have no medicines to cure? A study on the association between social class and social security among the rural migrant workers in urban China.

    PubMed

    Guan, Ming

    2017-11-07

    The rampant urbanization and medical marketization in China have resulted in increased vulnerabilities to health and socioeconomic disparities among the rural migrant workers in urban China. In the Chinese context, the socioeconomic characteristics of rural migrant workers have attracted considerable research attention in the recent past years. However, to date, no previous studies have explored the association between the socioeconomic factors and social security among the rural migrant workers in urban China. This study aims to explore the association between socioeconomic inequity and social security inequity and the subsequent associations with medical inequity and reimbursement rejection. Data from a regionally representative sample of 2009 Survey of Migrant Workers in Pearl River Delta in China were used for analyses. Multiple logistic regressions were used to analyze the impacts of socioeconomic factors on the eight dimensions of social security (sick pay, paid leave, maternity pay, medical insurance, pension insurance, occupational injury insurance, unemployment insurance, and maternity insurance) and the impacts of social security on medical reimbursement rejection. The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model (ZINB regression) was adopted to explore the relationship between socioeconomic factors and hospital visits among the rural migrant workers with social security. The study population consisted of 848 rural migrant workers with high income who were young and middle-aged, low-educated, and covered by social security. Reimbursement rejection and abusive supervision for the rural migrant workers were observed. Logistic regression analysis showed that there were significant associations between socioeconomic factors and social security. ZINB regression showed that there were significant associations between socioeconomic factors and hospital visits among the rural migrant workers. Also, several dimensions of social security had significant

  8. Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics.

    PubMed

    Zipkin, Elise F; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T; O'Connell, Allan F; Royle, J Andrew; Silverman, Emily D

    2010-08-01

    Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate

  9. Health care utilization among Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibles: a count data analysis.

    PubMed

    Moon, Sangho; Shin, Jaeun

    2006-04-05

    Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibles are the beneficiaries of both Medicare and Medicaid. Dual eligibles satisfy the eligibility conditions for Medicare benefit. Dual eligibles also qualify for Medicaid because they are aged, blind, or disabled and meet the income and asset requirements for receiving Supplement Security Income (SSI) assistance. The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between dual eligibility and health care utilization among Medicare beneficiaries. The household component of the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) 1996-2000 is used for the analysis. Total 8,262 Medicare beneficiaries are selected from the MEPS data. The Medicare beneficiary sample includes individuals who are covered by Medicare and do not have private health insurance during a given year. Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model is used to analyse the count data regarding health care utilization: office-based physician visits, hospital inpatient nights, agency-sponsored home health provider days, and total dental visits. Dual eligibility is positively correlated with the likelihood of using hospital inpatient care and agency-sponsored home health services and the frequency of agency-sponsored home health days. Frequency of dental visits is inversely associated with dual eligibility. With respect to racial differences, dually eligible Afro-Americans use more office-based physician and dental services than white duals. Asian duals use more home health services than white duals at the 5% statistical significance level. The dual eligibility programs seem particularly beneficial to Afro-American duals. Dual eligibility has varied impact on health care utilization across service types. More utilization of home healthcare among dual eligibles appears to be the result of delayed realization of their unmet healthcare needs under the traditional Medicare-only program rather than the result of overutilization in response to the

  10. Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy, Prematurity and Recurrent Wheezing in Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Robison, Rachel G; Kumar, Rajesh; Arguelles, Lester M; Hong, Xiumei; Wang, Guoying; Apollon, Stephanie; Bonzagni, Anthony; Ortiz, Kathryn; Pearson, Colleen; Pongracic, Jacqueline A; Wang, Xiaobin

    2013-01-01

    Summary Background Prenatal maternal smoking and prematurity independently affect wheezing and asthma in childhood. Objective We sought to evaluate the interactive effects of maternal smoking and prematurity upon the development of early childhood wheezing. Methods We evaluated 1448 children with smoke exposure data from a prospective urban birth cohort in Boston. Maternal antenatal and postnatal exposure was determined from standardized questionnaires. Gestational age was assessed by the first day of the last menstrual period and early prenatal ultrasound (preterm<37 weeks gestation). Wheezing episodes were determined from medical record extraction of well and ill/unscheduled visits. The primary outcome was recurrent wheezing, defined as ≥ 4 episodes of physician documented wheezing. Logistic regression models and zero inflated negative binomial regression (for number of episodes of wheeze) assessed the independent and joint association of prematurity and maternal antenatal smoking on recurrent wheeze, controlling for relevant covariates. Results In the cohort, 90 (6%) children had recurrent wheezing, 147 (10%) were exposed to in utero maternal smoke and 419 (29%) were premature. Prematurity (odds ratio [OR] 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.1) was associated with an increased risk of recurrent wheezing, but in utero maternal smoking was not (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.5-2.4). Jointly, maternal smoke exposure and prematurity caused an increased risk of recurrent wheezing (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.8-8.0). There was an interaction between prematurity and maternal smoking upon episodes of wheezing (p=0.049). Conclusions We demonstrated an interaction between maternal smoking during pregnancy and prematurity on childhood wheezing in this urban, multiethnic birth cohort. PMID:22290763

  11. Borrelia burgdorferi Sensu Lato Spirochetes in Wild Birds in Northwestern California: Associations with Ecological Factors, Bird Behavior and Tick Infestation

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Erica A.; Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Fedorova, Natalia; Hasty, Jeomhee M.; Vaughn, Charles; Lane, Robert S.

    2015-01-01

    Although Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) are found in a great diversity of vertebrates, most studies in North America have focused on the role of mammals as spirochete reservoir hosts. We investigated the roles of birds as hosts for subadult Ixodes pacificus ticks and potential reservoirs of the Lyme disease spirochete B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.) in northwestern California. Overall, 623 birds representing 53 species yielded 284 I. pacificus larvae and nymphs. We used generalized linear models and zero-inflated negative binomial models to determine associations of bird behaviors, taxonomic relationships and infestation by I. pacificus with borrelial infection in the birds. Infection status in birds was best explained by taxonomic order, number of infesting nymphs, sampling year, and log-transformed average body weight. Presence and counts of larvae and nymphs could be predicted by ground- or bark-foraging behavior and contact with dense oak woodland. Molecular analysis yielded the first reported detection of Borrelia bissettii in birds. Moreover, our data suggest that the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla), a non-resident species, could be an important reservoir for B. burgdorferi s.s. Of 12 individual birds (9 species) that carried B. burgdorferi s.l.-infected larvae, no birds carried the same genospecies of B. burgdorferi s.l. in their blood as were present in the infected larvae removed from them. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Our study is the first to explicitly incorporate both taxonomic relationships and behaviors as predictor variables to identify putative avian reservoirs of B. burgdorferi s.l. Our findings underscore the importance of bird behavior to explain local tick infestation and Borrelia infection in these animals, and suggest the potential for bird-mediated geographic spread of vector ticks and spirochetes in the far-western United States. PMID:25714376

  12. Health service use, out-of-pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India: the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE).

    PubMed

    Brinda, Ethel Mary; Kowal, Paul; Attermann, Jørn; Enemark, Ulrika

    2015-05-01

    Healthcare financing through out-of-pocket payments and inequities in healthcare utilisation are common in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Given the dearth of pertinent studies on these issues among older people in LMICs, we investigated the determinants of health service use, out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures among older people in one LMIC, India. We accessed data from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 2414 people aged 65 years and older from the WHO's Study on global AGEing and adult health in India. Sociodemographic characteristics, health profiles, health service utilisation and out-of-pocket health expenditure were assessed using standard instruments. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to evaluate the determinants of health service visits. Multivariate Heckman sample selection regression models were used to assess the determinants of out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures. Out-of-pocket health expenditures were higher among participants with disability and lower income. Diabetes, hypertension, chronic pulmonary disease, heart disease and tuberculosis increased the number of health visits and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India was 7% (95% CI 6% to 8%). Older men and individuals with chronic diseases were at higher risk of catastrophic health expenditure, while access to health insurance lowered the risk. Reducing out-of-pocket health expenditure among older people is an important public health issue, in which social as well as medical determinants should be prioritised. Enhanced public health sector performance and provision of publicly funded insurance may protect against catastrophic health expenses and healthcare inequities in India. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. The impact of poor psychosocial work environment on non-work-related sickness absence.

    PubMed

    Catalina-Romero, C; Sainz, J C; Pastrana-Jiménez, J I; García-Diéguez, N; Irízar-Muñoz, I; Aleixandre-Chiva, J L; Gonzalez-Quintela, A; Calvo-Bonacho, E

    2015-08-01

    We aimed to analyse the impact of psychosocial work environment on non-work-related sickness absence (NWRSA) among a prospective cohort study, stratified using a random sampling technique. Psychosocial variables were assessed among 15,643 healthy workers using a brief version of the Spanish adaptation of Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire. A one year follow-up assessed the total count of NWRSA days. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used for multivariate analyses. After adjusting for covariates, low levels of job control and possibilities for development (Odds Ratio [OR]: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.01-1.36 [men]; OR: 1.39 95% CI: 1.09-1.77 [women]), poor social support and quality of leadership (OR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11-1.50 [men]; OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.01-1.63 [women]), and poor rewards (OR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.14-1.57 [men]; OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.01-1.66 [women]) predicted a total count of sickness absence greater than zero, in both men and women. Double presence was also significantly associated with NWRSA different than 0, but only among women (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.08-1.81). Analyses found no association between psychosocial risk factors at work and the total count (i.e., number of days) of sickness absences. The results suggest that work-related psychosocial factors may increase the likelihood of initiating an NWRSA episode, but were not associated with the length of the sickness absence episode. Among our large cohort we observed that some associations were gender-dependent, suggesting that future research should consider gender when designing psychosocial interventions aimed at decreasing sickness absences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Absence of a moderating effect of parent health literacy on Early Head Start enrollment and dental use.

    PubMed

    Burgette, Jacqueline M; Preisser, John S; Weinberger, Morris; King, Rebecca S; Lee, Jessica Y; Rozier, R Gary

    2018-04-16

    To examine the moderating effect of parents' health literacy (HL) on the effectiveness of North Carolina Early Head Start (EHS) in improving children's dental use. Parents of 479 children enrolled in EHS and 699 Medicaid-matched parent-child dyads were interviewed at baseline when children were approximately 10 months old and 24 months later. We used in-person computer-assisted, structured interviews to collect information on sociodemographic characteristics, dental use, and administer the Short Assessment of Health Literacy - Spanish and English (SAHL-S&E). This quasi-experimental study tested whether the interaction effect between EHS and parents' HL was associated with dental use. Logit (any use) and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial count models (number of dental visits) included random effects to account for clustering and controlled for baseline dental use, dental need, survey language, and a propensity score covariate. Nineteen percent of parents in EHS had low literacy compared to 12 percent of parents in the non-EHS group (P < 0.01). The interaction term between EHS and parent's HL was not significant in the adjusted logit model (ratio of aORs 0.98, 95 percent CI: 0.43-2.20) or the adjusted count model (ratio of aRRs 0.88, 95 percent CI: 0.72-1.09). Parents in EHS had a higher prevalence of low HL compared to non-EHS parents. Parents' HL did not moderate the relationship between EHS and child dental use, suggesting that EHS results in similar improvements in dental use regardless of parent's HL levels. © 2018 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  15. Out-of-pocket costs for cancer survivors between 5 and 10 years from diagnosis: an Italian population-based study.

    PubMed

    Baili, Paolo; Di Salvo, Francesca; de Lorenzo, Francesco; Maietta, Francesco; Pinto, Carmine; Rizzotto, Vera; Vicentini, Massimo; Rossi, Paolo Giorgi; Tumino, Rosario; Rollo, Patrizia Concetta; Tagliabue, Giovanna; Contiero, Paolo; Candela, Pina; Scuderi, Tiziana; Iannelli, Elisabetta; Cascinu, Stefano; Aurora, Fulvio; Agresti, Roberto; Turco, Alberto; Sant, Milena; Meneghini, Elisabetta; Micheli, Andrea

    2016-05-01

    To illustrate the out-of-pocket (OOP) costs incurred by a population-based group of patients from 5 to 10 years since their cancer diagnosis in a country with a nationwide public health system. Interviews on OOP costs to a sample of 5-10 year prevalent cases randomly extracted from four population-based cancer registries (CRs), two in the north and two in the south of Italy. The patients' general practitioners (GPs) gave assurance about the patient's physical and psychological condition for the interview. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to analyze OOP cost determinants. Two hundred six cancer patients were interviewed (48 % of the original sample). On average, a patient in the north spent €69 monthly, against €244 in the south. The main differences are for transport, room, and board (TRB) to reach the hospital and/or the cancer specialist (north €0; south €119). Everywhere, OOP costs without TRB costs were higher for patients with a low quality of life. Despite the limited participation, our study sample's characteristics are similar to those of the Italian cancer prevalence population, allowing us to generalize the results. The higher OOP costs in the south may be due to the scarcity of oncologic structures, obliging patients to seek assistance far from their residence. Implications for cancer survivors Cancer survivors need descriptive studies to show realistic data about their status. Future Italian and European descriptive studies on cancer survivorship should be based on population CRs and involve GPs in order to approach the patient at best.

  16. Does small-perimeter fencing inhibit mule deer or pronghorn use of water developments?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larsen, R.T.; Bissonette, J.A.; Flinders, J.T.; Robinson, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Wildlife water development can be an important habitat management strategy in western North America for many species, including both pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). In many areas, water developments are fenced (often with small-perimeter fencing) to exclude domestic livestock and feral horses. Small-perimeter exclosures could limit wild ungulate use of fenced water sources, as exclosures present a barrier pronghorn and mule deer must negotiate to gain access to fenced drinking water. To evaluate the hypothesis that exclosures limit wild ungulate access to water sources, we compared use (photo counts) of fenced versus unfenced water sources for both pronghorn and mule deer between June and October 2002-2008 in western Utah. We used model selection to identify an adequate distribution and best approximating model. We selected a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution for both pronghorn and mule deer photo counts. Both pronghorn and mule deer photo counts were positively associated with sampling time and average daily maximum temperature in top models. A fence effect was present in top models for both pronghorn and mule deer, but mule deer response to small-perimeter fencing was much more pronounced than pronghorn response. For mule deer, we estimated that presence of a fence around water developments reduced photo counts by a factor of 0.25. We suggest eliminating fencing of water developments whenever possible or fencing a big enough area around water sources to avoid inhibiting mule deer. More generally, our results provide additional evidence that water development design and placement influence wildlife use. Failure to account for species-specific preferences will limit effectiveness of management actions and could compromise research results. Copyright ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

  17. Depression and Alcohol Use in a National Sample of Hispanic Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Merianos, Ashley L; Swoboda, Christopher M; Oluwoye, Oladunni A; Gilreath, Tamika D; Unger, Jennifer B

    2018-04-16

    Underage alcohol use and depression remain public health concerns for Hispanic adolescents nationwide. The study purpose was to identify the profiles of depression among Hispanic adolescents who reported experiencing depressive symptoms in their lifetime and classify them into groups based on their symptoms. Based on classifications, we examined the relationship between past year alcohol use and severity of depressive symptoms while controlling for sex and age. A secondary analysis of the 2013 NSDUH was conducted among Hispanic adolescents from 12 to 17 years of age (n = 585) who reported experiencing depressive symptoms. Latent class analysis was used to identify latent classes of depressive symptoms among Hispanic adolescents. A zero-inflated negative-binomial regression model was used to examine the relationship between alcohol use and depressive symptoms. "High depressive" and "moderate depressive" classes were formed. The items that highly differentiated among the groups were felt worthless nearly every day, others noticed they were restless or lethargic, and had changes in appetite or weight. There was a significant difference (p = 0.03) between the classes based on alcohol use; those in the moderate depressive class were 1.71 times more likely to be identified as not reporting past alcohol use. Results indicated the high depressive class was estimated to have 1.62 more days of past year alcohol use than those in the moderate depressive class for adolescents who used alcohol (p < 0.001). Conclusions/Importance: Study findings can be used to address these significant public health issues impacting Hispanic adolescents. Recommendations are included.

  18. Vape Shop Density and Socio-Demographic Disparities: A US Census Tract Analysis.

    PubMed

    Dai, Hongying; Hao, Jianqiang; Catley, Delwyn

    2017-11-01

    Vape shops are an emerging business specializing in the sales and promotion of e-cigarette, e-juice, and other vaping products. This study sought to evaluate the associations between vape shop density and socio-demographic characteristics at the US census tract level. Vape shop data (n = 9943) were collected from three online directories: Yelp.com, Yellowpages.com, and Guidetovaping.com. Addresses of vape shops were geocoded and the density per 10 000 people was estimated at each US census tract. Zero inflated negative binomial regression model was performed to examine the socio-demographic factors associated with vape shop density. Overall, there was a higher vape shop density in urban versus nonurban census tracts. In urban areas, higher vape shop density was associated with larger proportions of Hispanics and Asians, adults aged 18-44 years old and higher poverty, while the decrease in vape shop density was associated with larger proportions of population under 18 years old, higher education, larger household size, and a higher percentage of owner occupied housing units. In nonurban areas, higher vape shop density was associated larger proportions of African Americans and Hispanics, smaller household size and a lower percentage of owner occupied housing units. At the national level, there are inequalities of vape shop density by some socio-demographic characteristics and heterogeneity between urban and nonurban areas. Vape shops are more likely to be concentrated in areas where people with a higher risk for vaping and smoking reside. Our findings could inform initiatives aimed at a stronger licensing requirement for vape shops and federal and state-level regulations of this industry to prevent vape shop from targeting minority and other socially disadvantaged groups. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. A prospective study of mental health care for comorbid depressed mood in older adults with painful osteoarthritis

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Comorbid depression is common among adults with painful osteoarthritis (OA). We evaluated the relationship between depressed mood and receipt of mental health (MH) care services. Methods In a cohort with OA, annual interviews assessed comorbidity, arthritis severity, and MH (SF-36 mental health score). Surveys were linked to administrative health databases to identify mental health-related visits to physicians in the two years following the baseline interview (1996-98). Prescriptions for anti-depressants were ascertained for participants aged 65+ years (eligible for drug benefits). The relationship between MH scores and MH-related physician visits was assessed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusting for confounders. For those aged 65+ years, logistic regression examined the probability of receiving any MH-related care (physician visit or anti-depressant prescription). Results Analyses were based on 2,005 (90.1%) individuals (mean age 70.8 years). Of 576 (28.7%) with probable depression (MH score < 60/100), 42.5% experienced one or more MH-related physician visits during follow-up. The likelihood of a physician visit was associated with sex (adjusted OR women vs. men = 5.87, p = 0.005) and MH score (adjusted OR per 10-point decrease in MH score = 1.63, p = 0.003). Among those aged 65+, 56.7% with probable depression received any MH care. The likelihood of receiving any MH care exhibited a significant interaction between MH score and self-reported health status (p = 0.0009); with good general health, worsening MH was associated with increased likelihood of MH care; as general health declined, this effect was attenuated. Conclusions Among older adults with painful OA, more than one-quarter had depressed mood, but almost half received no mental health care, suggesting a care gap. PMID:21910895

  20. Antibiotic Resistances in Livestock: A Comparative Approach to Identify an Appropriate Regression Model for Count Data

    PubMed Central

    Hüls, Anke; Frömke, Cornelia; Ickstadt, Katja; Hille, Katja; Hering, Johanna; von Münchhausen, Christiane; Hartmann, Maria; Kreienbrock, Lothar

    2017-01-01

    Antimicrobial resistance in livestock is a matter of general concern. To develop hygiene measures and methods for resistance prevention and control, epidemiological studies on a population level are needed to detect factors associated with antimicrobial resistance in livestock holdings. In general, regression models are used to describe these relationships between environmental factors and resistance outcome. Besides the study design, the correlation structures of the different outcomes of antibiotic resistance and structural zero measurements on the resistance outcome as well as on the exposure side are challenges for the epidemiological model building process. The use of appropriate regression models that acknowledge these complexities is essential to assure valid epidemiological interpretations. The aims of this paper are (i) to explain the model building process comparing several competing models for count data (negative binomial model, quasi-Poisson model, zero-inflated model, and hurdle model) and (ii) to compare these models using data from a cross-sectional study on antibiotic resistance in animal husbandry. These goals are essential to evaluate which model is most suitable to identify potential prevention measures. The dataset used as an example in our analyses was generated initially to study the prevalence and associated factors for the appearance of cefotaxime-resistant Escherichia coli in 48 German fattening pig farms. For each farm, the outcome was the count of samples with resistant bacteria. There was almost no overdispersion and only moderate evidence of excess zeros in the data. Our analyses show that it is essential to evaluate regression models in studies analyzing the relationship between environmental factors and antibiotic resistances in livestock. After model comparison based on evaluation of model predictions, Akaike information criterion, and Pearson residuals, here the hurdle model was judged to be the most appropriate model. PMID

  1. Influences on preschool children's oral health-related quality of life as reported by English and Spanish-speaking parents and caregivers.

    PubMed

    Born, Catherine D; Divaris, Kimon; Zeldin, Leslie P; Rozier, R Gary

    2016-09-01

    This study examined young, preschool children's oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) among a community-based cohort of English and Spanish-speaking parent-child dyads in North Carolina, and sought to quantify the association of parent/caregiver characteristics, including spoken language, with OHRQoL impacts. Data from structured interviews with 1,111 parents of children aged 6-23 months enrolled in the Zero-Out Early Childhood Caries study in 2010-2012 were used. OHRQoL was measured using the overall score (range: 0-52) of the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS). We examined associations with parents' sociodemographic characteristics, spoken language, self-reported oral and general health, oral health knowledge, children's dental attendance, and dental care needs. Analyses included descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate methods based upon zero-inflated negative binomial regression. To determine differences between English and Spanish speakers, language-stratified model estimates were contrasted using homogeneity χ 2 tests. The mean overall ECOHIS score was 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.6-4.2]; 4.7 among English-speakers and 1.5 among Spanish speakers. In multivariate analyses, caregivers' education showed a positive association with OHRQoL impacts among Spanish speakers [prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.12 (95% CI = 1.03-1.22), for every added year of schooling], whereas caregivers' fair/poor oral health showed a positive association among English speakers (PR = 1.20; 95% CI = 1.02-1.41). The overall severity of ECOHIS impacts was low among this population-based sample of young, preschool children, and substantially lower among Spanish versus English speakers. Further studies are warranted to identify sources of these differences in - actual or reported - OHRQoL impacts. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  2. Testing a Model of Self-Management of Fluid Intake in Community-Residing Long-Term Indwelling Urinary Catheter Users

    PubMed Central

    Wilde, Mary H.; Crean, Hugh F.; McMahon, James M.; McDonald, Margaret V.; Tang, Wan; Brasch, Judith; Fairbanks, Eileen; Shah, Shivani; Zhang, Feng

    2015-01-01

    Background Urinary tract infection and blockage are serious and recurrent challenges for people with long-term indwelling catheters, and these catheter problems cause worry and anxiety when they disrupt normal daily activities. Objectives The goal was to determine whether urinary catheter-related self-management behaviors focusing on fluid intake would mediate fluid intake related self-efficacy toward decreasing catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) and/or catheter blockage. Method The sample involved data collected from 180 adult community-living, long-term indwelling urinary catheter users. The authors tested a model of fluid intake self-management (F-SMG) related to fluid intake self-efficacy (F-SE) for key outcomes of CAUTI and blockage. To account for the large number of zeros in both outcomes, a zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) structural equation model was tested. Results Structurally, F-SE was positively associated with F-SMG, suggesting that higher F-SE predicts more (higher) F-SMG; however, F-SMG was not associated with either the frequency of CAUTI’s or the presence or absence of CAUTI. F-SE was positively related to F-SMG and F-SMG predicted less frequency of catheter blockage, but neither F-SE nor F-SMG predicted the presence or absence of blockage. Discussion Further research is needed to better understand determinants of CAUTI in long-term catheter users and factors which might influence or prevent its occurrence. Increased confidence (self-efficacy) and self-management behaviors to promote fluid intake could be of value in long-term urinary catheter users to decrease catheter blockage. PMID:26938358

  3. Substance Use, Depression and Sociodemographic Determinants of HIV Sexual Risk Behavior in Outpatient Substance Abuse Treatment Patients.

    PubMed

    Tross, Susan; Feaster, Daniel J; Thorens, Gabriel; Duan, Rui; Gomez, Zoilyn; Pavlicova, Martina; Hu, Mei Chen; Kyle, Tiffany; Erickson, Sarah; Spector, Anya; Haynes, Louise; Metsch, Lisa R

    2015-01-01

    The NIDA Clinical Trials Network trial of rapid HIV testing/counseling in 1281 patients was a unique opportunity to examine relationships among substance use, depressive symptoms, and sex risk behavior. Past 6-month substance use; substance use severity (Drug Abuse Screening Test - 10); depressive symptoms (Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology); and three types of sex risk behavior (unprotected sex occasions [USOs] with primary partners; USOs with nonprimary partners; and USOs while high/drunk) were assessed. Zero-inflated negative binomial analyses provided: probability and rate of sex risk behavior (in risk behavior subsample). Levels of sexual risk behavior were high, while variable across the three types of sex risk behaviors. Among the patients, 50.4% had engaged in USOs with primary partners, 42% in sex while drunk or high, and 23.8% in USOs with nonprimary partners. Similar factors were significantly associated with all three types of sex risk behaviors. For all types, problem drinking, cocaine use, and substance use severity had an exacerbating effect. Older age was associated with lower risk behavior; other relationship categories (eg, married, separated/divorced, cohabitating) were associated with greater risk behavior than was single status. Depressive symptoms were associated with decreased likelihood of USOs with a primary partner. Sexual risk behavior is common among individuals in outpatient substance abuse treatment. Results highlight problem drinking (eg, up to three-fold) and cocaine (eg, up to twice) in increasing sex risk behavior. They demonstrate the utility of distinguishing between partner types and presence/absence of alcohol/drugs during sex. Findings argue for the need to integrate sex risk reduction into drug treatment.

  4. Human Activity and Habitat Characteristics Influence Shorebird Habitat Use and Behavior at a Vancouver Island Migratory Stopover Site.

    PubMed

    Murchison, Colleen R; Zharikov, Yuri; Nol, Erica

    2016-09-01

    Pacific Rim National Park Reserve on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, has 16 km of coastal beaches that attract many thousands of people and shorebirds (S.O. Charadrii) every year. To identify locations where shorebirds concentrate and to determine the impact of human activity and habitat characteristics on shorebirds, we conducted shorebird and visitor surveys at 20 beach sectors (across 20 total km of beach) during fall migration in 2011-2014 and spring migration in 2012 and 2013. Using zero-inflated negative binomial regression and a model selection approach, we found that beach width and number of people influenced shorebird use of beach sectors (Bayesian information criterion weight of top model = 0.69). Shorebird absence from beaches was associated with increasing number of people (parameter estimate from top model: 0.38; 95 % CI 0.19, 0.57) and decreasing beach width (parameter estimate: -0.32; 95 % CI -0.47, -0.17). Shorebirds spent more time at wider beaches (parameter estimate: 0.68; 95 % CI 0.49, 0.87). Close proximity to people increased the proportion of time shorebirds spent moving, while shorebirds spent more time moving and less time foraging on wider beaches than on narrower ones. Shorebird disturbance increased with proximity of people, activity speed, and presence of dogs. Based on our findings, management options, for reducing shorebird disturbance at Pacific Rim National Park Reserve and similar shorebird stopover areas, include mandatory buffer distances between people and shorebirds, restrictions on fast-moving activities (e.g., running, biking), prohibiting dogs, and seasonal closures of wide beach sections.

  5. Blood Pressure May Be Associated with Arterial Collateralization in Anterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke before Acute Reperfusion Therapy.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Beisi; Churilov, Leonid; Kanesan, Lasheta; Dowling, Richard; Mitchell, Peter; Dong, Qiang; Davis, Stephen; Yan, Bernard

    2017-05-01

    Leptomeningeal collaterals maintain arterial perfusion in acute arterial occlusion but may fluctuate subject to arterial blood pressure (ABP). We aim to investigate the relationship between ABP and collaterals as assessed by computer tomography (CT) perfusion in acute ischemic stroke. We retrospectively analyzed acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke patients with CT perfusion from 2009 to 2014. Collateral status using relative filling time delay (rFTD) determined by time delay of collateral-derived contrast opacification within the Sylvian fissure, from 0 seconds to unlimited count. The data were analyzed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression model including an appropriate interaction examining in the model in terms of occlusion location and onset-to-CT time (OCT). Two hundred and seventy patients were included. We found that increment of 10 mm Hg in BP, the odds that a patient would have rFTD equal to 0 seconds increased by 27.9% in systolic BP (SBP) ( p =0.001), by 73.9% in diastolic BP (DBP) ( p <0.001) and by 68.5% in mean BP (MBP) ( p <0.001). For patients with rFTD not necessarily equal to 0 seconds, every 10 mm Hg increase in BP, there was a 7% decrease in expected count of seconds for rFTD in SBP ( p =0.002), 10% decrease for rFTD in DBP and 11% decrease for rFTD in MBP. The arterial occlusion location and OCT showed no significant interaction in the BP-rFTD relationship ( p >0.05). In acute ischemic stroke, higher ABP is possibly associated with improved leptomeningeal collaterals as identified by decreased rFTD.

  6. Association of Maternal Depressive Symptoms and Offspring Physical Health in Low-Income Families.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Sarah M; Jiang, Lu; Hammen, Constance; Whaley, Shannon E

    2018-06-01

    Objectives The present study sought to examine the association between maternal depressive symptoms and characteristics of offspring physical health, including health status, health behaviors, and healthcare utilization, among low-income families. Maternal engagement was explored as a mediator of observed effects. Methods Cross-sectional survey data from a community sample of 4589 low-income women and their preschool-age children participating in the WIC program in Los Angeles County were analyzed using logistic, Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Mediation was tested via conditional process analyses. Results After controlling for the effects of demographic characteristics including maternal health insurance coverage, employment status, education, and preferred language, children of depressed women (N = 1025) were significantly more likely than children of non-depressed women (N = 3564) to receive a "poor" or "fair" maternal rating of general health (OR 2.34), eat fewer vegetables (IRR: 0.94) more sweets (IRR: 1.20) and sugary drinks daily (IRR: 1.32), and consume fast food more often (OR 1.21). These children were also less likely to have health insurance (OR 1.59) and more likely to receive medical care from a public medical clinic or hospital emergency room (OR 1.30). Reduced maternal engagement partially mediated associations between maternal depressive symptoms and several child health outcomes including poor diet, health insurance coverage, and use of public medical services. Conclusions for Practice Maternal depressive symptoms are associated with poor health among preschool-age children in low-income families. Prevention, screening, and treatment efforts aimed at reducing the prevalence of maternal depression may positively affect young children's health.

  7. Psychosocial and Environmental Correlates of Walking, Cycling, Public Transport and Passive Transport to Various Destinations in Flemish Older Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Verhoeven, Hannah; Simons, Dorien; Van Dyck, Delfien; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; Clarys, Peter; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; de Geus, Bas; Vandelanotte, Corneel; Deforche, Benedicte

    2016-01-01

    Background Active transport is a convenient way to incorporate physical activity in adolescents’ daily life. The present study aimed to investigate which psychosocial and environmental factors are associated with walking, cycling, public transport (train, tram, bus, metro) and passive transport (car, motorcycle, moped) over short distances (maximum eight kilometres) among older adolescents (17–18 years), to school and to other destinations. Methods 562 older adolescents completed an online questionnaire assessing socio-demographic variables, psychosocial variables, environmental variables and transport to school/other destinations. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were performed. Results More social modelling and a higher residential density were positively associated with walking to school and walking to other destinations, respectively. Regarding cycling, higher self-efficacy and a higher social norm were positively associated with cycling to school and to other destinations. Regarding public transport, a higher social norm, more social modelling of siblings and/or friends, more social support and a higher land use mix access were positively related to public transport to school and to other destinations, whereas a greater distance to school only related positively to public transport to school. Regarding passive transport, more social support and more perceived benefits were positively associated with passive transport to school and to other destinations. Perceiving less walking and cycling facilities at school was positively related to passive transport to school only, and more social modelling was positively related to passive transport to other destinations. Conclusions Overall, psychosocial variables seemed to be more important than environmental variables across the four transport modes. Social norm, social modelling and social support were the most consistent psychosocial factors which indicates that it is important to target both

  8. Factors associated with cholera in Kenya, 2008-2013

    PubMed Central

    Cowman, Gretchen; Otipo, Shikanga; Njeru, Ian; Achia, Thomas; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Bartram, Jamie; Kioko, Jackson

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Kenya experienced widespread cholera outbreaks in 1997-1999 and 2007-2010. The re-emergence of cholera in Kenya in 2015 indicates that cholera remains a public health threat. Understanding past outbreaks is important for preventing future outbreaks. This study investigated the relationship between cholera occurrence in Kenya and various environmental and demographic factors related to water, sanitation, socio-economic status, education, urbanization and availability of health facilities during the time period 2008-2013. Methods The primary outcome analyzed was the number of cholera cases at the district level, obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health's national cholera surveillance records. Values of independent variables were obtained from the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census and other national surveys. The data were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. Results Multivariate analysis indicated that the risk of cholera was associated with open defecation, use of unimproved water sources, poverty headcount ratio and the number of health facilities per 100,000 population (p < 0.05). No statistically significant association was found between cholera occurrence and education, percentage of population living in urban areas or population density. Conclusion The Sustainable Development Goals and Kenya's blueprint for development, Kenya Vision 2030, call for access to sanitation facilities and clean water for all by 2030. Kenya has made important economic strides in recent years but continues to be affected by diseases like cholera that are associated with low socio-economic status. Further expansion of access to sanitation facilities and clean water is necessary for preventing cholera in Kenya. PMID:29515719

  9. Inequalities in dental caries of 5-year-old children in Scotland, 1993-2003.

    PubMed

    Levin, Kate A; Davies, Carolyn A; Topping, Gail V A; Assaf, Andrea V; Pitts, Nigel B

    2009-06-01

    Previous research suggests there are significant differences between socio-economic groups in prevalence and amount of decayed missing and filled primary teeth (d3mft). The aim of this study was to describe the variation in obvious tooth decay experience amongst 5-year olds in Scotland and to look at the association between d3mft and deprivation in Scotland. Data derived from 1993 to 2003 National Dental Inspection Programme were modelled using Bayesian multilevel zero-inflated Negative Binomial models, adjusting for age, sex and the deprivation. Deprivation is positively and significantly associated with having d3mft; the odds of a child in DepCat 7 (most deprived) having d3mft in 1993 were 7.49 (5.03-11.15) that of a child in DepCat 1 (most affluent). Inequalities in the prevalence of d3mft have reduced and in 2003 the odds of a child in DepCat 7 having d3mft were 4.60 (3.47-6.14) that of a child in DepCat 1. However, socio-economic inequalities in the amount of d3mft for those with d3mft have seen no reduction and have in fact increased between 1993 and 2003, with this increase approaching significance. While socio-economic inequalities in prevalence of children with d3mft have decreased in recent years, socio-economic inequalities in the amount of d3mft for those with d3mft persist. This suggests that improvements are only seen for those children with the potential for low d3mft. High d3mft persists among children from more deprived areas. The national target conceals this apparent inconsistency.

  10. Preventive Services by Medical and Dental Providers and Treatment Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Kranz, A M; Rozier, R G; Preisser, J S; Stearns, S C; Weinberger, M; Lee, J Y

    2014-07-01

    Nearly all state Medicaid programs reimburse nondental primary care providers (PCPs) for providing preventive oral health services to young children; yet, little is known about how treatment outcomes compare with children visiting dentists. This study compared the association between the provider of preventive services (PCP, dentist, or both) with Medicaid-enrolled children before their third birthday and subsequent dental caries-related treatment (CRT) and CRT payment. We conducted a retrospective study of young children enrolled in North Carolina Medicaid during 2000 to 2006. The annual number of CRT and CRT payments per child between the ages of 3 and 5 yr were estimated with a zero-inflated negative binomial regression and a hurdle model, respectively. Models were adjusted for relevant child- and county-level characteristics and used propensity score weighting to address observed confounding. We examined 41,453 children with > 1 preventive oral health visit from a PCP, dentist, or both before their third birthday. Unadjusted annual mean CRT and payments were lowest among children who had only PCP visits (CRT = 0.87, payment = $172) and higher among children with only dentist visits (CRT = 1.48, payment = $234) and both PCP and dentist visits (CRT = 1.52, payment = $273). Adjusted results indicated that children who had dentist visits (with or without PCP visits) had significantly more CRT and higher CRT payments per year during the ages of 3 and 4 yr than children who had only PCP visits. However, these differences attenuated each year after age 3 yr. Because of children's increased opportunity to receive multiple visits in medical offices during well-child visits, preventive oral health services provided by PCPs may lead to a greater reduction in CRT than dentist visits alone. This study supports guidelines and reimbursement policies that allow preventive dental visits based on individual needs. © International & American Associations for Dental Research.

  11. Suboptimal Herd Performance Amplifies the Spread of Infectious Disease in the Cattle Industry

    PubMed Central

    Gates, M. Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E. J.

    2014-01-01

    Farms that purchase replacement breeding cattle are at increased risk of introducing many economically important diseases. The objectives of this analysis were to determine whether the total number of replacement breeding cattle purchased by individual farms could be reduced by improving herd performance and to quantify the effects of such reductions on the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases. Detailed information on the performance and contact patterns of British cattle herds was extracted from the national cattle movement database as a case example. Approximately 69% of beef herds and 59% of dairy herds with an average of at least 20 recorded calvings per year purchased at least one replacement breeding animal. Results from zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed that herds with high average ages at first calving, prolonged calving intervals, abnormally high or low culling rates, and high calf mortality rates were generally more likely to be open herds and to purchase greater numbers of replacement breeding cattle. If all herds achieved the same level of performance as the top 20% of herds, the total number of replacement beef and dairy cattle purchased could be reduced by an estimated 34% and 51%, respectively. Although these purchases accounted for only 13% of between-herd contacts in the industry trade network, they were found to have a disproportionately strong influence on disease transmission dynamics. These findings suggest that targeting extension services at herds with suboptimal performance may be an effective strategy for controlling endemic cattle diseases while simultaneously improving industry productivity. PMID:24671129

  12. Evaluation of Alcohol-Related Personalized Normative Feedback With and Without an Injunctive Message

    PubMed Central

    Steers, Mai-Ly N.; Coffman, Amelia D.; Wickham, Robert E.; Bryan, Jennifer L.; Caraway, Lisa; Neighbors, Clayton

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Personalized normative feedback (PNF) has been used extensively to reduce alcohol consumption, particularly among heavy drinkers. However, the majority of PNF studies have used only descriptive norms (real or perceived pervasiveness of a given behavior). The purpose of the current study was to explore the efficacy of PNF both with and without an injunctive message indicating approval or disapproval based on the participants’ standing relative to other students’ drinking levels. This randomized trial evaluated two brief web-based alcohol intervention conditions (descriptive-norms-feedback–only condition versus a descriptive-plus-injunctive-message condition relative to an assessment-only control condition). Method: Participants included 176 students who had reported at least one heavy drinking episode in the past month. Participants completed baseline and follow-up assessments of perceived norms and drinking. Follow-up assessments were completed at 2 weeks post-intervention by 165 (94%) participants. Results: Analyses were conducted using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. As expected, the descriptive-norms–only condition was effective in reducing drinking among heavier baseline drinkers at follow-up relative to the control condition. However, contrary to expectations, the descriptive-plus-injunctive-message condition did not predict less drinking at follow-up. Conclusions: This study was unique in using an injunctive message as an adjunct to descriptive-norms feedback within the context of drinking. Findings highlight the need for additional research into the role of defensiveness, which may serve as an impediment to using injunctive norms/messages in interventions for problematic substance use and other potentially stigmatizing behaviors. PMID:26997192

  13. Maternal group B Streptococcus and the infant gut microbiota.

    PubMed

    Cassidy-Bushrow, A E; Sitarik, A; Levin, A M; Lynch, S V; Havstad, S; Ownby, D R; Johnson, C C; Wegienka, G

    2016-02-01

    Early patterns of gut colonization may predispose children to adult disease. Exposures in utero and during delivery are associated with the infant gut microbiome. Although ~35% of women carry group B strep (GBS; Streptococcus agalactiae) during pregnancy, it is unknown if GBS presence influences the infant gut microbiome. As part of a population-based, general risk birth cohort, stool specimens were collected from infant's diapers at research visits conducted at ~1 and 6 months of age. Using the Illumina MiSeq (San Diego, CA) platform, the V4 region of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene was sequenced. Infant gut bacterial community compositional differences by maternal GBS status were evaluated using permutational multivariate analysis of variance. Individual operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were tested using a zero-inflated negative binomial model. Data on maternal GBS and infant gut microbiota from either 1 (n=112) or 6-month-old stool (n=150) specimens was available on 262 maternal-child pairs. Eighty women (30.5%) were GBS+, of who 58 (72.5%) were given intrapartum antibiotics. After adjusting for maternal race, prenatal antifungal use and intrapartum antibiotics, maternal GBS status was statistically significantly associated with gut bacterial composition in the 6 month visit specimen (Canberra R 2=0.008, P=0.008; Unweighted UniFrac R 2=0.010, P=0.011). Individual OTU tests revealed that infants of GBS+ mothers were significantly enriched for specific members of the Clostridiaceae, Ruminococcoceae, and Enterococcaceae in the 6 month specimens compared with infants of GBS- mothers. Whether these taxonomic differences in infant gut microbiota at 6 months lead to differential predisposition for adult disease requires additional study.

  14. Analysis of postdischarge costs following emergent general surgery in elderly patients

    PubMed Central

    Eamer, Gilgamesh J.; Clement, Fiona; Pederson, Jenelle L.; Churchill, Thomas A.; Khadaroo, Rachel G.

    2018-01-01

    Background As populations age, more elderly patients will undergo surgery. Frailty and complications are considered to increase in-hospital cost in older adults, but little is known on costs following discharge, particularly those borne by the patient. We examined risk factors for increased cost and the type of costs accrued following discharge in elderly surgical patients. Methods Acute abdominal surgery patients aged 65 years and older were prospectively enrolled. We assessed baseline clinical characteristics, including Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) scores. We calculated 6-month cost (in Canadian dollars) from patient-reported use following discharge according to the validated Health Resource Utilization Inventory. Primary outcomes were 6-month overall cost and cost for health care services, medical products and lost productive hours. Outcomes were log-transformed and assessed in multivariable generalized linear and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions and can be interpreted as adjusted ratios (AR). Complications were assessed according to Clavien–Dindo classification. Results We included 150 patients (mean age 75.5 ± 7.6 yr; 54.1% men) in our analysis; 10.8% had major and 43.2% had minor complications postoperatively. The median 6-month overall cost was $496 (interquartile range $140–$1948). Disaggregated by cost type, frailty independently predicted increasing costs of health care services (AR 1.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43–2.18, p < 0.001) and medical products (AR 1.61, 95% CI 1.15–2.25, p = 0.005), but decreasing costs in lost productive hours (AR 0.39, p = 0.002). Complications did not predict increased cost. Conclusion Frail patients accrued higher health care services and product costs, but lower costs from lost productive hours. Interventions in elderly surgical patients should consider patient-borne cost in older adults and lost productivity in less frail patients. Trial registration NCT02233153 (clinicaltrials.gov). PMID:29368673

  15. Human Activity and Habitat Characteristics Influence Shorebird Habitat Use and Behavior at a Vancouver Island Migratory Stopover Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murchison, Colleen R.; Zharikov, Yuri; Nol, Erica

    2016-09-01

    Pacific Rim National Park Reserve on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, has 16 km of coastal beaches that attract many thousands of people and shorebirds (S.O. Charadrii) every year. To identify locations where shorebirds concentrate and to determine the impact of human activity and habitat characteristics on shorebirds, we conducted shorebird and visitor surveys at 20 beach sectors (across 20 total km of beach) during fall migration in 2011-2014 and spring migration in 2012 and 2013. Using zero-inflated negative binomial regression and a model selection approach, we found that beach width and number of people influenced shorebird use of beach sectors (Bayesian information criterion weight of top model = 0.69). Shorebird absence from beaches was associated with increasing number of people (parameter estimate from top model: 0.38; 95 % CI 0.19, 0.57) and decreasing beach width (parameter estimate: -0.32; 95 % CI -0.47, -0.17). Shorebirds spent more time at wider beaches (parameter estimate: 0.68; 95 % CI 0.49, 0.87). Close proximity to people increased the proportion of time shorebirds spent moving, while shorebirds spent more time moving and less time foraging on wider beaches than on narrower ones. Shorebird disturbance increased with proximity of people, activity speed, and presence of dogs. Based on our findings, management options, for reducing shorebird disturbance at Pacific Rim National Park Reserve and similar shorebird stopover areas, include mandatory buffer distances between people and shorebirds, restrictions on fast-moving activities (e.g., running, biking), prohibiting dogs, and seasonal closures of wide beach sections.

  16. Psychosocial and environmental correlates of active and passive transport behaviors in college educated and non-college educated working young adults.

    PubMed

    Simons, Dorien; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Clarys, Peter; De Cocker, Katrien; de Geus, Bas; Vandelanotte, Corneel; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; Deforche, Benedicte

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to examine potential differences in walking, cycling, public transport and passive transport (car/moped/motorcycle) to work and to other destinations between college and non-college educated working young adults. Secondly, we aimed to investigate which psychosocial and environmental factors are associated with the four transport modes and whether these associations differ between college and non-college educated working young adults. In this cross-sectional study, 224 working young adults completed an online questionnaire assessing socio-demographic variables (8 items), psychosocial variables (6 items), environmental variables (10 items) and transport mode (4 types) and duration to work/other destinations. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were performed in R. A trend (p<0.10) indicated that more college educated compared to non-college educated young adults participated in cycling and public transport. However, another trend indicated that cycle time and public transport trips were longer and passive transport trips were shorter in non-college compared to college educated working young adults. In all working young adults, high self-efficacy towards active transport, and high perceived benefits and low perceived barriers towards active and public transport were related to more active and public transport. High social support/norm/modeling towards active, public and passive transport was related to more active, public and passive transport. High neighborhood walkability was related to more walking and less passive transport. Only in non-college educated working young adults, feeling safe from traffic and crime in their neighborhood was related to more active and public transport and less passive transport. Educational levels should be taken into account when promoting healthy transport behaviors in working young adults. Among non-college educated working young adults, focus should be on increasing active and public transport

  17. Gender differences in use of hearing protection devices among farm operators.

    PubMed

    McCullagh, Marjorie C; Banerjee, Tanima; Yang, James J; Bernick, Janice; Duffy, Sonia; Redman, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Although farm operators have frequent exposure to hazardous noise and high rates of noise-induced hearing loss, they have low use of hearing protection devices (HPDs). Women represent about one-third of farm operators, and their numbers are climbing. However, among published studies examining use of HPDs in this worker group, none have examined gender-related differences. The purpose of this study was to examine gender-related differences in use of hearing protection and related predictors among farm operators. Data previously collected at farm shows and by telephone were analyzed using t-tests and generalized linear model with zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) distribution. The difference in rate of hearing protector use between men and women farm operators was not significant. There was no difference between men and women in most hearing protector-related attitudes and beliefs. Although men and women farm operators had similar rates of use of hearing protectors when working in high-noise environments, attitudes about HPD use differed. Specifically, interpersonal role modeling was a predictor of HPD use among women, but not for men. This difference suggests that while farm operators of both genders may benefit from interventions designed to reduce barriers to HPD use (e.g., difficulty communicating with co-workers and hearing warning sounds), farm women have unique needs in relation to cognitive-perceptual factors that predict HPD use. Women farm operators may lack role models for use of HPDs (e.g., in peers and advertising), contributing to their less frequent use of protection.

  18. Psychosocial and Environmental Correlates of Walking, Cycling, Public Transport and Passive Transport to Various Destinations in Flemish Older Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Verhoeven, Hannah; Simons, Dorien; Van Dyck, Delfien; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; Clarys, Peter; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; de Geus, Bas; Vandelanotte, Corneel; Deforche, Benedicte

    2016-01-01

    Active transport is a convenient way to incorporate physical activity in adolescents' daily life. The present study aimed to investigate which psychosocial and environmental factors are associated with walking, cycling, public transport (train, tram, bus, metro) and passive transport (car, motorcycle, moped) over short distances (maximum eight kilometres) among older adolescents (17-18 years), to school and to other destinations. 562 older adolescents completed an online questionnaire assessing socio-demographic variables, psychosocial variables, environmental variables and transport to school/other destinations. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were performed. More social modelling and a higher residential density were positively associated with walking to school and walking to other destinations, respectively. Regarding cycling, higher self-efficacy and a higher social norm were positively associated with cycling to school and to other destinations. Regarding public transport, a higher social norm, more social modelling of siblings and/or friends, more social support and a higher land use mix access were positively related to public transport to school and to other destinations, whereas a greater distance to school only related positively to public transport to school. Regarding passive transport, more social support and more perceived benefits were positively associated with passive transport to school and to other destinations. Perceiving less walking and cycling facilities at school was positively related to passive transport to school only, and more social modelling was positively related to passive transport to other destinations. Overall, psychosocial variables seemed to be more important than environmental variables across the four transport modes. Social norm, social modelling and social support were the most consistent psychosocial factors which indicates that it is important to target both older adolescents and their social environment

  19. Oceanographic Determinants of Bycatch Patterns in the California Drift Gillnet Fishery: Building an EBFM Tool for Sustainable Fisheries.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahlbeck, N.; Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Bograd, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    The reduction of bycatch, or incidental capture of non-target species in a fishery, is a key objective of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and critical to the conservation of many threatened marine species. Prediction of bycatch events is therefore of great importance to EBFM efforts. Here, bycatch of the ocean sunfish (Mola mola) and bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the California drift gillnet fishery is modeled using a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables as predictors. Data from 8321 gillnet sets was aggregated by month to reduce zero inflation and autocorrelation among sets, and a set of a priori generalized additive models (GAMs) was created for each species based on literature review and preliminary data exploration. Each of the models was fit using a binomial family with a logit link in R, and Aikake's Information Criterion with correction (AICc) was used in the first stage of model selection. K-fold cross validation was used in the second stage of model selection and performance assessment, using the least-squares linear model of predicted vs. observed values as the performance metric. The best-performing mola model indicated a strong, nearly linear negative correlation with sea surface temperature, as well as weaker nonlinear correlations with eddy kinetic energy, chlorophyll-a concentration and rugosity. These findings are consistent with current understanding of ocean sunfish habitat use; for example, previous studies suggest seasonal movement patterns and exploitation of dynamic, highly productive areas characteristic of upwelling regions. Preliminary results from the bluefin models also indicate seasonal fluctuation and correlation with environmental variables. These models can be used with near-real time satellite data as bycatch avoidance tools for both fishers and managers, allowing for the use of more dynamic ocean management strategies to improve sustainability of the fishery.

  20. Oceanographic Determinants of Bycatch Patterns in the California Drift Gillnet Fishery: Building an EBFM Tool for Sustainable Fisheries.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahlbeck, N.; Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Bograd, S. J.

    2016-02-01

    The reduction of bycatch, or incidental capture of non-target species in a fishery, is a key objective of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and critical to the conservation of many threatened marine species. Prediction of bycatch events is therefore of great importance to EBFM efforts. Here, bycatch of the ocean sunfish (Mola mola) and bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the California drift gillnet fishery is modeled using a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables as predictors. Data from 8321 gillnet sets was aggregated by month to reduce zero inflation and autocorrelation among sets, and a set of a priori generalized additive models (GAMs) was created for each species based on literature review and preliminary data exploration. Each of the models was fit using a binomial family with a logit link in R, and Aikake's Information Criterion with correction (AICc) was used in the first stage of model selection. K-fold cross validation was used in the second stage of model selection and performance assessment, using the least-squares linear model of predicted vs. observed values as the performance metric. The best-performing mola model indicated a strong, nearly linear negative correlation with sea surface temperature, as well as weaker nonlinear correlations with eddy kinetic energy, chlorophyll-a concentration and rugosity. These findings are consistent with current understanding of ocean sunfish habitat use; for example, previous studies suggest seasonal movement patterns and exploitation of dynamic, highly productive areas characteristic of upwelling regions. Preliminary results from the bluefin models also indicate seasonal fluctuation and correlation with environmental variables. These models can be used with near-real time satellite data as bycatch avoidance tools for both fishers and managers, allowing for the use of more dynamic ocean management strategies to improve sustainability of the fishery.

  1. Ecology of nonnative Siberian prawn (Palaemon modestus) in the lower Snake River, Washington, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erhardt, John M.; Tiffan, Kenneth F.

    2016-01-01

    We assessed the abundance, distribution, and ecology of the nonnative Siberian prawn Palaemon modestus in the lower Snake River, Washington, USA. Analysis of prawn passage abundance at three Snake River dams showed that populations are growing at exponential rates, especially at Little Goose Dam where over 464,000 prawns were collected in 2015. Monthly beam trawling during 2011–2013 provided information on prawn abundance and distribution in Lower Granite and Little Goose Reservoirs. Zero-inflated regression predicted that the probability of prawn presence increased with decreasing water velocity and increasing depth. Negative binomial models predicted higher catch rates of prawns in deeper water and in closer proximity to dams. Temporally, prawn densities decreased slightly in the summer, likely due to the mortality of older individuals, and then increased in autumn and winter with the emergence and recruitment of young of the year. Seasonal length frequencies showed that distinct juvenile and adult size classes exist throughout the year, suggesting prawns live from 1 to 2 years and may be able to reproduce multiple times during their life. Most juvenile prawns become reproductive adults in 1 year, and peak reproduction occurs from late July through October. Mean fecundity (189 eggs) and reproductive output (11.9 %) are similar to that in their native range. The current use of deep habitats by prawns likely makes them unavailable to most predators in the reservoirs. The distribution and role of Siberian prawns in the lower Snake River food web will probably continue to change as the population grows and warrants continued monitoring and investigation.

  2. Global healthcare use by immigrants in Spain according to morbidity burden, area of origin, and length of stay.

    PubMed

    Gimeno-Feliu, Luis A; Calderón-Larrañaga, Amaia; Diaz, Esperanza; Poblador-Plou, Beatriz; Macipe-Costa, Rosa; Prados-Torres, Alexandra

    2016-05-27

    The healthcare of immigrants is an important aspect of equity of care provision. Understanding how immigrants use the healthcare services based on their needs is crucial to establish effective health policy. This retrospective, observational study included the total population of Aragon, Spain (1,251,540 individuals, of whom 11.9 % were immigrants). Patient-level data on the use of primary, specialised, hospital, and emergency care as well as prescription drug use in 2011 were extracted from the EpiChron Cohort and compared between immigrants and nationals. Multivariable standard or zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were generated, adjusting for age, sex, length of stay, and morbidity burden. The annual visit rates of immigrants were lower than those of nationals for primary care (3.3 vs 6.4), specialised care (1.3 vs 2.7), planned hospital admissions/100 individuals (1.6 vs 3.8), unplanned hospital admissions/100 individuals (2.7 vs 4.7), and emergency room visits/10 individuals (2.3 vs 2.8). Annual prescription drug costs were also lower for immigrants (€47 vs €318). These differences were only partially attenuated after adjusting for age, sex and morbidity burden. In a universal coverage health system offering broad legal access to immigrants, the global use of healthcare services was lower for immigrants than for nationals. These differences may be explained in part by the healthy migration effect, but also reveal possible inequalities in healthcare provision that warrant further investigation.

  3. Neighborhood walkability and active travel (walking and cycling) in New York City.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Lance; Neckerman, Kathryn; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Quinn, James; Richards, Catherine; Bader, Michael D M; Lovasi, Gina; Jack, Darby; Weiss, Christopher; Konty, Kevin; Arno, Peter; Viola, Deborah; Kerker, Bonnie; Rundle, Andrew G

    2013-08-01

    Urban planners have suggested that built environment characteristics can support active travel (walking and cycling) and reduce sedentary behavior. This study assessed whether engagement in active travel is associated with neighborhood walkability measured for zip codes in New York City. Data were analyzed on engagement in active travel and the frequency of walking or biking ten blocks or more in the past month, from 8,064 respondents to the New York City 2003 Community Health Survey (CHS). A neighborhood walkability scale that measures: residential, intersection, and subway stop density; land use mix; and the ratio of retail building floor area to retail land area was calculated for each zip code. Data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression incorporating survey sample weights and adjusting for respondents' sociodemographic characteristics. Overall, 44 % of respondents reported no episodes of active travel and among those who reported any episode, the mean number was 43.2 episodes per month. Comparing the 75th to the 25th percentile of zip code walkability, the odds ratio for reporting zero episodes of active travel was 0.71 (95 % CI 0.61, 0.83) and the exponentiated beta coefficient for the count of episodes of active travel was 1.13 (95 % CI 1.06, 1.21). Associations between lower walkability and reporting zero episodes of active travel were significantly stronger for non-Hispanic Whites as compared to non-Hispanic Blacks and to Hispanics and for those living in higher income zip codes. The results suggest that neighborhood walkability is associated with higher engagement in active travel.

  4. Factors associated with cholera in Kenya, 2008-2013.

    PubMed

    Cowman, Gretchen; Otipo, Shikanga; Njeru, Ian; Achia, Thomas; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Bartram, Jamie; Kioko, Jackson

    2017-01-01

    Kenya experienced widespread cholera outbreaks in 1997-1999 and 2007-2010. The re-emergence of cholera in Kenya in 2015 indicates that cholera remains a public health threat. Understanding past outbreaks is important for preventing future outbreaks. This study investigated the relationship between cholera occurrence in Kenya and various environmental and demographic factors related to water, sanitation, socio-economic status, education, urbanization and availability of health facilities during the time period 2008-2013. The primary outcome analyzed was the number of cholera cases at the district level, obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health's national cholera surveillance records. Values of independent variables were obtained from the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census and other national surveys. The data were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. Multivariate analysis indicated that the risk of cholera was associated with open defecation, use of unimproved water sources, poverty headcount ratio and the number of health facilities per 100,000 population (p < 0.05). No statistically significant association was found between cholera occurrence and education, percentage of population living in urban areas or population density. The Sustainable Development Goals and Kenya's blueprint for development, Kenya Vision 2030 , call for access to sanitation facilities and clean water for all by 2030. Kenya has made important economic strides in recent years but continues to be affected by diseases like cholera that are associated with low socio-economic status. Further expansion of access to sanitation facilities and clean water is necessary for preventing cholera in Kenya.

  5. Association between Low blood lead levels and increased risk of dental caries in children: a cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young-Suk; Ha, Mina; Kwon, Ho-Jang; Kim, Hae-Young; Choi, Youn-Hee

    2017-01-13

    The objective of this study was to examine the association between low blood lead levels of <5 μg/dL and the development of dental caries among children. The Children's Health and Environment Research (CHEER) group recruited a cohort of 7,059 school-aged children from six Korean cities. The final study populations in the permanent and deciduous teeth groups were 1,564 and 1,241 children, respectively, after excluding 4 children with blood lead levels of >5 μg/dL. Compared with the children who did not have dental caries, the risk of having dental caries according to blood lead level was estimated by using the zero-inflated negative binomial model. The geometric mean (geometric standard deviation, maximum) blood lead level was 1.53 μg/dL (1.57, 4.89 μg/dL), and 74.4% of children had a level of <2 μg/dL. Blood lead level was significantly higher in the children with than in those without deciduous dental caries (1.59 vs. 1.51 μg/dL), similarly with permanent dental caries (1.65 vs. 1.51 μg/dL). After adjustment for covariates, deciduous teeth surfaces that were decayed and filled increased significantly with increasing blood lead levels in a dose-dependent manner (prevalence ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.27). However, the risk of having dental caries in permanent teeth was not linearly associated with the increase in blood lead level. In the sum of decayed and filled surfaces, we found a significant increase in risk of dental caries of the deciduous teeth with an increase in blood lead levels (<5 μg/dL) but found no statistical significance in the association with decayed and filled surfaces of caries separately.

  6. High prevalence of dental caries among HIV-infected children in West Africa compared to uninfected siblings.

    PubMed

    Rajonson, Noëlla; Meless, David; Ba, Boubacar; Faye, Malick; Diby, Jean-Serge; N'zore, Serge; Datté, Sébastien; Diecket, Lucrèce; N'Diaye, Clémentine; Aka, Edmond Addi; Kouakou, Kouadio; Ba, Abou; Ekouévi, Didier Koumavi; Dabis, François; Shiboski, Caroline; Arrivé, Elise

    2017-06-01

    The objectives of this study were to investigate the association between HIV infection and dental caries among children in West Africa, and to identify factors associated with dental caries among HIV-infected children. We conducted a multi-center cross-sectional study in Mali, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire with a random sample of HIV-infected children aged 5-15 years on antiretroviral therapy and their uninfected siblings. A standardized examination was performed by calibrated dentists. The association between the number of decayed, missing or filled permanent and primary teeth surfaces (DMFdefS) and HIV status was investigated by fitting multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial models, for each age group (<12 and ≥12 years). Factors associated with dental caries could be investigated only for HIV-infected children <12 years old. The sample included 420 HIV-infected children and 418 non-infected siblings. The median DMFdefS was 7 for the HIV-infected children and 2 for the uninfected siblings. The proportion of children with DMFdefS ≥1 was significantly higher among the HIV-infected children than uninfected children (86.0 percent versus 64.4 percent, P < 0.001). The HIV-infected children were less likely to be caries-free than the uninfected siblings in both age groups. We found a higher degree of caries experience among HIV-infected children < 12 years old, in whom it was associated with sweet drink consumption, history of night bottle use, immunosuppression, and younger age at study entry. Although preventable, the burden of dental disease was high in children from families affected by HIV in West Africa and was associated with HIV infection and immunosuppression. © 2017 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  7. Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Sulz, Michael C; Siebert, Uwe; Arvandi, Marjan; Gothe, Raffaella M; Wurm, Johannes; von Känel, Roland; Vavricka, Stephan R; Meyenberger, Christa; Sagmeister, Markus

    2013-07-01

    Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

  8. Reduced Feeding Tube Duration with IMRT for Head and Neck Cancer: A SEER-Medicare Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Beadle, Beth M.; Liao, Kai-Ping; Giordano, Sharon H.; Garden, Adam S.; Hutcheson, Katherine A.; Lai, Stephen Y.; Guadagnolo, B. Ashleigh

    2016-01-01

    Background Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is a technologically advanced and resource-intensive method of delivering radiation therapy (RT) used to minimize toxicity for patients with head and neck cancers (HNC). Dependence on feeding tubes is a significant marker of toxicity of RT. The goal of this analysis was to compare the placement and duration of feeding tube use for patients with HNC from 1999-2011. Methods The cohort, demographics, and cancer-related variables were determined using the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database and analyzed regarding treatment details using claims data. Results A total of 2993 patients were identified. With a median follow-up of 47 months, 54.4% of patients had a feeding tube placed. The median duration from feeding tube placement to removal was 277 days. On zero-inflated negative binomial regression, patients treated with IMRT and 3DRT (non-IMRT) had similar rates of feeding tube placement (odds ratio (OR) 1.10; p=.35); however, patients treated with 3DRT had the feeding tube in place 1.18 times longer than those treated with IMRT (p=.03). The difference was only seen amongst patients treated with definitive radiation; patients treated with surgery and adjuvant radiation had no statistically significant difference in placement or duration. Conclusions Patients with HNC treated with definitive IMRT had significantly shorter duration of feeding tubes in place than those treated with 3DRT. These data suggest that there may be significant quality of life benefits to IMRT with respect to long-term swallowing function for patients. PMID:27662641

  9. Predictors and moderators of outcomes of HIV/STD sex risk reduction interventions in substance abuse treatment programs: a pooled analysis of two randomized controlled trials.

    PubMed

    Crits-Christoph, Paul; Gallop, Robert; Sadicario, Jaclyn S; Markell, Hannah M; Calsyn, Donald A; Tang, Wan; He, Hua; Tu, Xin; Woody, George

    2014-01-16

    The objective of the current study was to examine predictors and moderators of response to two HIV sexual risk interventions of different content and duration for individuals in substance abuse treatment programs. Participants were recruited from community drug treatment programs participating in the National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network (CTN). Data were pooled from two parallel randomized controlled CTN studies (one with men and one with women) each examining the impact of a multi-session motivational and skills training program, in comparison to a single-session HIV education intervention, on the degree of reduction in unprotected sex from baseline to 3- and 6- month follow-ups. The findings were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. Severity of drug use (p < .01), gender (p < .001), and age (p < .001) were significant main effect predictors of number of unprotected sexual occasions (USOs) at follow-up in the non-zero portion of the ZINB model (men, younger participants, and those with greater severity of drug/alcohol abuse have more USOs). Monogamous relationship status (p < .001) and race/ethnicity (p < .001) were significant predictors of having at least one USO vs. none (monogamous individuals and African Americans were more likely to have at least one USO). Significant moderators of intervention effectiveness included recent sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol (p < .01 in non-zero portion of model), duration of abuse of primary drug (p < .05 in non-zero portion of model), and Hispanic ethnicity (p < .01 in the zero portion, p < .05 in the non-zero portion of model). These predictor and moderator findings point to ways in which patients may be selected for the different HIV sexual risk reduction interventions and suggest potential avenues for further development of the interventions for increasing their effectiveness within certain subgroups.

  10. Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Smartphone Assisted Versus Traditional Guided Self-Help for Adults with Binge Eating

    PubMed Central

    Hildebrandt, Tom; Michaelides, Andreas; Mackinnon, Dianna; Greif, Rebecca; DeBar, Lynn; Sysko, Robyn

    2017-01-01

    Objective Guided self-help treatments based on cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT-GSH) are efficacious for binge eating. With limited availability of CBT-GSH in the community, mobile technology offers a means to increase use of these interventions. The purpose of this study was to test the initial efficacy of Noom Monitor, a smartphone application designed to facilitate CBT-GSH (CBT-GSH+Noom), on study retention, adherence, and eating disorder symptoms compared to traditional CBT-GSH. Method Sixty-six men and women with DSM-5 binge eating disorder (BED) or bulimia nervosa (BN) were randomized to receive 8 sessions of CBT-GSH + Noom (n = 33) or CBT-GSH (n = 33) over 12 weeks. Primary symptom outcomes were Eating Disorder Examination objective bulimic episodes (OBEs), subjective bulimic episodes (SBEs), and compensatory behaviors. Assessments were collected at 0, 4, 8, 12, 24, and 36 weeks. Behavioral outcomes were modeled using zero-inflated negative-binomial latent growth curve models with intent-to-treat. Results There was a significant effect of treatment on change in OBEs (β =−0.84, 95%CI = −1.49, −0.19) favoring CBT-GSH + Noom. Remission rates were not statistically different between treatments for OBEs (βlogit =−0.73, 95%CI = −1.86, 3.27; CBT-GSH + Noom = 17/27, 63.0% vs. CBT-GSH 11/27, 40.7%, NNT = 4.5), but CBT-GSH + Noom participants reported greater meal and snack adherence and regular meal adherence mediated treatment effects on OBEs. The treatments did not differ at the 6-month follow-up. Discussion Smartphone applications for the treatment binge eating appear to have advantages for adherence, a critical component of treatment dissemination. PMID:28960384

  11. Personal care services provided to children with special health care needs (CSHCN) and their subsequent use of physician services.

    PubMed

    Miller, Thomas R; Elliott, Timothy R; McMaughan, Darcy M; Patnaik, Ashweeta; Naiser, Emily; Dyer, James A; Fournier, Constance J; Hawes, Catherine; Phillips, Charles D

    2013-10-01

    Medicaid Personal Care Services (PCS) help families meet children's needs for assistance with functional tasks. However, PCS may have other effects on a child's well-being, but research has not yet established the existence of such effects. To investigate the relationship between the number of PCS hours a child receives with subsequent visits to physicians for evaluation and management (E&M) services. Assessment data for 2058 CSHCN receiving PCS were collected in 2008 and 2009. Assessment data were matched with Medicaid claims data for the period of 1 year after the assessment. Zero-inflated negative binomial and generalized linear multivariate regression models were used in the analyses. These models included patient demographics, health status, household resources, and use of other medical services. For every 10 additional PCS hours authorized for a child, the odds of having an E&M physician visit in the next year were reduced by 25%. However, the number of PCS hours did not have a significant effect on the number of visits by those children who did have a subsequent E&M visit. A variety of demographic and health status measures also affect physician use. Medicaid PCS for CSHCN may be associated with reduced physician usage because of benefits realized by continuity of care, the early identification of potential health threats, or family and patient education. PCS services may contribute to a child's well-being by providing continuous relationships with the care team that promote good chronic disease management, education, and support for the family. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Do parent–child acculturation gaps affect early adolescent Latino alcohol use? A study of the probability and extent of use

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The literature has been mixed regarding how parent–child relationships are affected by the acculturation process and how this process relates to alcohol use among Latino youth. The mixed results may be due to, at least, two factors: First, staggered migration in which one or both parents arrive to the new country and then send for the children may lead to faster acculturation in parents than in children for some families. Second, acculturation may have different effects depending on which aspects of alcohol use are being examined. This study addresses the first factor by testing for a curvilinear trend in the acculturation-alcohol use relationship and the second by modeling past year alcohol use as a zero inflated negative binomial distribution. Additionally, this study examined the unique and mediation effects of parent–child acculturation discrepancies (gap), mother involvement in children’s schooling, father involvement in children’s schooling, and effective parenting on youth alcohol use during the last 12 months, measured as the probability of using and the extent of use. Direct paths from parent–child acculturation discrepancy to alcohol use, and mediated paths through mother involvement, father involvement, and effective parenting were also tested. Only father involvement fully mediated the path from parent–child acculturation discrepancies to the probability of alcohol use. None of the variables examined mediated the path from parent–child acculturation discrepancies to the extent of alcohol use. Effective parenting was unrelated to acculturation discrepancies; however, it maintained a significant direct effect on the probability of youth alcohol use and the extent of use after controlling for mother and father involvement. Implications for prevention strategies are discussed. PMID:23347822

  13. A multi-worksite analysis of the relationships among body mass index, medical utilization, and worker productivity.

    PubMed

    Goetzel, Ron Z; Gibson, Teresa B; Short, Meghan E; Chu, Bong-Chul; Waddell, Jessica; Bowen, Jennie; Lemon, Stephenie C; Fernandez, Isabel Diana; Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Wilson, Mark G; DeJoy, David M

    2010-01-01

    The relationships between worker health and productivity are becoming clearer. However, few large scale studies have measured the direct and indirect cost burden of overweight and obesity among employees using actual biometric values. The objective of this study was to quantify the direct medical and indirect (absence and productivity) cost burden of overweight and obesity in workers. A cross-sectional study of 10,026 employees in multiple professions and worksites across the United States was conducted. The main outcomes were five self-reported measures of workers' annual health care use and productivity: doctor visits, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, absenteeism (days absent from work), and presenteeism (percent on-the-job productivity losses). Multivariate count and continuous data models (Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson) were estimated. After adjusting for covariates, obese employees had 20% higher doctor visits than normal weight employees (confidence interval [CI] 16%, 24%, P < 0.01) and 26% higher emergency department visits (CI 11%, 42%, P < 0.01). Rates of doctor and emergency department visits for overweight employees were no different than those of normal weight employees. Compared to normal weight employees, presenteeism rates were 10% and 12% higher for overweight and obese employees, respectively (CI 5%, 15% and 5%, 19%, all P < 0.01). Taken together, compared to normal weight employees, obese and overweight workers were estimated to cost employers $644 and $201 more per employee per year, respectively. This study provides evidence that employers face a financial burden imposed by obesity. Implementation of effective workplace programs for the prevention and management of excess weight will benefit employers and their workers.

  14. Randomized controlled trial comparing smartphone assisted versus traditional guided self-help for adults with binge eating.

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, Tom; Michaelides, Andreas; Mackinnon, Dianna; Greif, Rebecca; DeBar, Lynn; Sysko, Robyn

    2017-11-01

    Guided self-help treatments based on cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT-GSH) are efficacious for binge eating. With limited availability of CBT-GSH in the community, mobile technology offers a means to increase use of these interventions. The purpose of this study was to test the initial efficacy of Noom Monitor, a smartphone application designed to facilitate CBT-GSH (CBT-GSH + Noom), on study retention, adherence, and eating disorder symptoms compared to traditional CBT-GSH. Sixty-six men and women with DSM-5 binge-eating disorder (BED) or bulimia nervosa (BN) were randomized to receive eight sessions of CBT-GSH + Noom (n = 33) or CBT-GSH (n = 33) over 12 weeks. Primary symptom outcomes were eating disorder examination objective bulimic episodes (OBEs), subjective bulimic episodes (SBEs), and compensatory behaviors. Assessments were collected at 0, 4, 8, 12, 24, and 36 weeks. Behavioral outcomes were modeled using zero-inflated negative-binomial latent growth curve models with intent-to-treat. There was a significant effect of treatment on change in OBEs (β = -0.84, 95% CI = -1.49, -0.19) favoring CBT-GSH + Noom. Remission rates were not statistically different between treatments for OBEs (β logit  = -0.73, 95% CI = -1.86, 3.27; CBT-GSH-Noom = 17/27, 63.0% vs. CBT-GSH 11/27, 40.7%, NNT = 4.5), but CBT-GSH-Noom participants reported greater meal and snack adherence and regular meal adherence mediated treatment effects on OBEs. The treatments did not differ at the 6-month follow-up. Smartphone applications for the treatment binge eating appear to have advantages for adherence, a critical component of treatment dissemination. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Perceived Problem-Solving Deficits and Suicidal Ideation: Evidence for the Explanatory Roles of Thwarted Belongingness and Perceived Burdensomeness in Five Samples.

    PubMed

    Chu, Carol; Walker, Kristin L; Stanley, Ian H; Hirsch, Jameson K; Greenberg, Jeffrey H; Rudd, M David; Joiner, Thomas E

    2017-06-26

    Perceived social problem-solving deficits are associated with suicide risk; however, little research has examined the mechanisms underlying this relationship. The interpersonal theory of suicide proposes 2 mechanisms in the pathogenesis of suicidal desire: intractable feelings of thwarted belongingness (TB) and perceived burdensomeness (PB). This study tested whether TB and PB serve as explanatory links in the relationship between perceived social problem-solving (SPS) deficits and suicidal thoughts and behaviors cross-sectionally and longitudinally. The specificity of TB and PB was evaluated by testing depression as a rival mediator. Self-report measures of perceived SPS deficits, TB, PB, suicidal ideation, and depression were administered in 5 adult samples: 336 and 105 undergraduates from 2 universities, 53 homeless individuals, 222 primary care patients, and 329 military members. Bias-corrected bootstrap mediation and meta-analyses were conducted to examine the magnitude of the direct and indirect effects, and the proposed mediation paths were tested using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions. Cross-sectionally, TB and PB were significant parallel mediators of the relationship between perceived SPS deficits and ideation, beyond depression. Longitudinally and beyond depression, in 1 study, both TB and PB emerged as significant explanatory factors, and in the other, only PB was a significant mediator. Findings supported the specificity of TB and PB: Depression and SPS deficits were not significant mediators. The relationship between perceived SPS deficits and ideation was explained by interpersonal theory variables, particularly PB. Findings support a novel application of the interpersonal theory, and bolster a growing compendium of literature implicating perceived SPS deficits in suicide risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Household income and health problems during a period of labour-market change and widening income inequalities - a study among the Finnish population between 1987 and 2007.

    PubMed

    Aittomäki, Akseli; Martikainen, Pekka; Rahkonen, Ossi; Lahelma, Eero

    2014-01-01

    Income inequalities widened considerably from 1987 to 2007 in Finland. We compared the association between household income and health problems across three periods and in several different ways of modelling the dependence. Our aim was to find out whether the change in the distribution of income might have led to wider income-related inequalities in health problems. The data represent an 11-per-cent random sample of the Finnish population, and we restricted the analysed sample to those between 18 and 67 years of age and not in receipt of any pension in each of the three six-year periods examined (n between 280,106 and 291,198). The health outcome was sickness-allowance days compensated. Household-equivalent taxable income was applied with two different scale transformations: firstly, as real income adjusted for price level and secondly, as rank position on the income distribution. We used negative binomial regression models, with and without zero inflation, as well as decomposition analysis. We found that sickness-allowance days decreased with increasing income, while differences in the shape and magnitude of the association were found between the scales and the periods. During the study period the association strengthened considerably at both the lowest fifth and the top fifth of the rank scale, while the observed per-unit effect of real income changed less. Decomposition analysis suggested that slightly less than half of the observed increase in concentration of health problems at lower end of the rank scale could be accounted for by the change in real income distribution. The results indicate that widening differences in household consumption potential may have contributed to an intensified impact of household income on inequalities in health problems. Explaining the change only in terms of consumption potential, however, was problematic, and changes in the interdependence of labour-market advantage and health problems are likely to contribute as well. Copyright

  17. QMRA for Drinking Water: 2. The Effect of Pathogen Clustering in Single-Hit Dose-Response Models.

    PubMed

    Nilsen, Vegard; Wyller, John

    2016-01-01

    Spatial and/or temporal clustering of pathogens will invalidate the commonly used assumption of Poisson-distributed pathogen counts (doses) in quantitative microbial risk assessment. In this work, the theoretically predicted effect of spatial clustering in conventional "single-hit" dose-response models is investigated by employing the stuttering Poisson distribution, a very general family of count distributions that naturally models pathogen clustering and contains the Poisson and negative binomial distributions as special cases. The analysis is facilitated by formulating the dose-response models in terms of probability generating functions. It is shown formally that the theoretical single-hit risk obtained with a stuttering Poisson distribution is lower than that obtained with a Poisson distribution, assuming identical mean doses. A similar result holds for mixed Poisson distributions. Numerical examples indicate that the theoretical single-hit risk is fairly insensitive to moderate clustering, though the effect tends to be more pronounced for low mean doses. Furthermore, using Jensen's inequality, an upper bound on risk is derived that tends to better approximate the exact theoretical single-hit risk for highly overdispersed dose distributions. The bound holds with any dose distribution (characterized by its mean and zero inflation index) and any conditional dose-response model that is concave in the dose variable. Its application is exemplified with published data from Norovirus feeding trials, for which some of the administered doses were prepared from an inoculum of aggregated viruses. The potential implications of clustering for dose-response assessment as well as practical risk characterization are discussed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Silverman, Emily D.

    2010-01-01

    Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate

  19. Predicting stem borer density in maize using RapidEye data and generalized linear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M.; Landmann, Tobias; Kyalo, Richard; Ong'amo, George; Mwalusepo, Sizah; Sulieman, Saad; Ru, Bruno Le

    2017-05-01

    Average maize yield in eastern Africa is 2.03 t ha-1 as compared to global average of 6.06 t ha-1 due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In eastern Africa, maize yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% and 21% of the total production. The objective of the present study was to explore the possibility of RapidEye spectral data to assess stem borer larva densities in maize fields in two study sites in Kenya. RapidEye images were acquired for the Bomet (western Kenya) test site on the 9th of December 2014 and on 27th of January 2015, and for Machakos (eastern Kenya) a RapidEye image was acquired on the 3rd of January 2015. Five RapidEye spectral bands as well as 30 spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) were utilized to predict per field maize stem borer larva densities using generalized linear models (GLMs), assuming Poisson ('Po') and negative binomial ('NB') distributions. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were used to assess the models performance using a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. The Zero-inflated NB ('ZINB') models outperformed the 'NB' models and stem borer larva densities could only be predicted during the mid growing season in December and early January in both study sites, respectively (RMSE = 0.69-1.06 and RPD = 8.25-19.57). Overall, all models performed similar when all the 30 SVIs (non-nested) and only the significant (nested) SVIs were used. The models developed could improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers within integrated pest management (IPM) interventions.

  20. The association between income, education, and experiences of discrimination in older African American and European American patients.

    PubMed

    Halanych, Jewell H; Safford, Monika M; Shikany, James M; Cuffee, Yendelela; Person, Sharina D; Scarinci, Isabel C; Kiefe, Catarina I; Allison, Jeroan J

    2011-01-01

    Racial/ethnic discrimination has adverse effects on health outcomes, as does low income and education, but the relationship between discrimination, income, and education is not well characterized. In this study, we describe the associations of discrimination with income and education in elderly African Americans (AA) and European Americans (EA). Cross-sectional observational study involving computer-assisted telephone survey. Southeastern United States. AA and EA Medicare managed care enrollees. Discrimination was measured with the Experience of Discrimination (EOD) scale (range 0-35). We used zero-inflated negative binomial models to determine the association between self-reported income and education and 1) presence of any discrimination and 2) intensity of discrimination. Among 1,800 participants (45% AA, 56% female, and mean age 73 years), EA reported less discrimination than AA (4% vs. 47%; P < .001). AA men reported more discrimination and more intense discrimination than AA women (EOD scores 4.35 vs. 2.50; P < .001). Both income and education were directly and linearly associated with both presence of discrimination and intensity of discrimination in AA, so that people with higher incomes and education experienced more discrimination. In adjusted models, predicted EOD scores among AA decreased with increasing age categories (3.42, 3.21, 2.99, 2.53; P < .01) and increased with increasing income (2.36, 3.44, 4.17; P < .001) and education categories (2.31, 3.09, 5.12; P < .001). This study suggests future research should focus less on differences between racial/ethnic groups and more on factors within minority populations that may contribute to healthcare disparities.

  1. Increasing time to treatment initiation for head and neck cancer: an analysis of the National Cancer Database.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Colin T; Galloway, Thomas J; Handorf, Elizabeth A; Wang, Lora; Mehra, Ranee; Flieder, Douglas B; Ridge, John A

    2015-04-15

    The objective of this study was to identify trends and predictors of the time to treatment initiation (TTI) for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was reviewed for the following head and neck cancer sites: oral tongue, oropharynx, larynx, and hypopharynx. TTI was defined as the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of definitive treatment and was measured according to covariates. Significant differences in the median TTI across each covariate were measured using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and the Spearman test was used to measure trends within covariates. For multivariate analysis, a zero-inflated, negative, binomial regression model was used to estimate the expected TTI, which was expressed in the predicted number of days; and the Vuong test was used to identify the predictors of TTI. In total, 274,630 patients were included. Between 1998 and 2011, the median TTI for all patients was 26 days, and it increased from 19 days to 30 days (P < .0001). Treatment with chemoradiation (CRT) (P < .0001), treatment at academic facilities (P < .0001), and stage IV disease (P < .0001) were associated with increased TTI. TTI significantly increased for each disease stage (P < .0001), treatment modality (P < .0001), and facility type (P < .0001) over time. In addition, patients became more likely to transition care between facilities after diagnosis for treatment initiation (P < .0001) over time. On multivariate analysis, treatment at academic facilities (33 days), transitioning care (37 days), and receipt of CRT (39 days) predicted for a longer TTI. TTI is rising for patients with HNSCC. Those who have advanced-stage disease, receive treatment with CRT, are treated at academic facilities, and who have a transition in care realized the greatest increases in TTI. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  2. Factors associated with degree of atopy in Latino children in a nationwide pediatric sample: The GALA II Study

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Rajesh; Nguyen, Elizabeth A; Roth, Lindsey A; Oh, Sam S; Gignoux, Christopher R.; Huntsman, Scott; Eng, Celeste; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Sandoval, Karla; Peñaloza-Espinosa, Rosenda; López-López, Marisol; Avila, Pedro C.; Farber, Harold J.; Tcheurekdjian, Haig; Rodriguez-Cintron, William; Rodriguez-Santana, Jose R; Serebrisky, Denise; Thyne, Shannon M.; Williams, L. Keoki; Winkler, Cheryl; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J.; Borrell, Luisa N.; Burchard, Esteban G

    2013-01-01

    Background Atopy varies by ethnicity even within Latino groups. This variation may be due to environmental, socio-cultural or genetic factors. Objective To examine risk factors for atopy within a nationwide study of U.S. Latino children with and without asthma. Methods Aeroallergen skin test repsonse was analyzed in 1830 US latino subjects. Key determinants of atopy included: country / region of origin, generation in the U.S., acculturation, genetic ancestry and site to which individuals migrated. Serial multivariate zero inflated negative binomial regressions, stratified by asthma status, examined the association of each key determinant variable with the number of positive skin tests. In addition, the independent effect of each key variable was determined by including all key variables in the final models. Results In baseline analyses, African ancestry was associated with 3 times as many positive skin tests in participants with asthma (95% CI:1.62–5.57) and 3.26 times as many positive skin tests in control participants (95% CI: 1.02–10.39). Generation and recruitment site were also associated with atopy in crude models. In final models adjusted for key variables, Puerto Rican [exp(β) (95%CI): 1.31(1.02–1.69)] and mixed ethnicity [exp(β) (95%CI):1.27(1.03–1.56)] asthmatics had a greater probability of positive skin tests compared to Mexican asthmatics. Ancestry associations were abrogated by recruitment site, but not region of origin. Conclusions Puerto Rican ethnicity and mixed origin were associated with degree of atopy within U.S. Latino children with asthma. African ancestry was not associated with degree of atopy after adjusting for recruitment site. Local environment variation, represented by site, was associated with degree of sensitization. PMID:23684070

  3. Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile

    PubMed Central

    Oyarte, Marcela; Delgado, Iris; Pedrero, Víctor; Agar, Lorenzo; Cabieses, Báltica

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. METHODS This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. RESULTS The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%), and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%). We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans). In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i) lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii) digestive organs, and (iii) breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level. PMID:29641660

  4. Valuing Treatment With Infliximab for Ankylosing Spondylitis Using a Willingness-to-Pay Approach.

    PubMed

    Webers, Casper; Essers, Ivette; van Tubergen, Astrid; Braun, Jürgen; Heldmann, Frank; Baraliakos, Xenofon; Boonen, Annelies

    2018-04-01

    To investigate willingness to pay (WTP) for treatment with infliximab by patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and explore factors associated with WTP. Data from 85 patients participating in the European AS Infliximab Cohort (EASIC) open-label extension of the AS Study for the Evaluation of Recombinant Infliximab Therapy (ASSERT) were used. WTP was included at baseline in EASIC and comprised a hypothetical scenario exploring whether the patient would be willing to pay for beneficial effects of infliximab and, if so, what amount they would be willing to pay per administration. Factors associated with WTP were explored using zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regressions. Of the 85 patients, 63 (74.1%) were willing to pay, and among these, the mean amount they were willing to pay per administration was €275 (median €100 [interquartile range €50-200]). Multivariable ZINB analysis showed that Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society criteria for 20% improvement (ASAS20) response was associated with a 7-fold lower likelihood to pay 0 euros (odds ratio [OR] 0.14 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.03-0.71]) and a 3-fold increase in the amount willing to pay (exp(β) = 3.32 [95% CI 1.44-7.69]). In addition, the country of residence was associated with a lower likelihood to pay 0 euros (OR 0.07 [95% CI 0.02-0.36]), while increased age was associated with the amount willing to pay (exp(β) = 1.05 [95% CI 1.01-1.09]). In a hypothetical scenario, three-quarters of patients with AS receiving long-term infliximab stated that they were willing to pay an out-of-pocket contribution for this treatment. Treatment response contributed to the willingness as well as to the amount patients were willing to pay. © 2017, The Authors. Arthritis Care & Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.

  5. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato spirochetes in wild birds in northwestern California: associations with ecological factors, bird behavior and tick infestation.

    PubMed

    Newman, Erica A; Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J; Fedorova, Natalia; Hasty, Jeomhee M; Vaughn, Charles; Lane, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    Although Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) are found in a great diversity of vertebrates, most studies in North America have focused on the role of mammals as spirochete reservoir hosts. We investigated the roles of birds as hosts for subadult Ixodes pacificus ticks and potential reservoirs of the Lyme disease spirochete B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.) in northwestern California. Overall, 623 birds representing 53 species yielded 284 I. pacificus larvae and nymphs. We used generalized linear models and zero-inflated negative binomial models to determine associations of bird behaviors, taxonomic relationships and infestation by I. pacificus with borrelial infection in the birds. Infection status in birds was best explained by taxonomic order, number of infesting nymphs, sampling year, and log-transformed average body weight. Presence and counts of larvae and nymphs could be predicted by ground- or bark-foraging behavior and contact with dense oak woodland. Molecular analysis yielded the first reported detection of Borrelia bissettii in birds. Moreover, our data suggest that the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla), a non-resident species, could be an important reservoir for B. burgdorferi s.s. Of 12 individual birds (9 species) that carried B. burgdorferi s.l.-infected larvae, no birds carried the same genospecies of B. burgdorferi s.l. in their blood as were present in the infected larvae removed from them. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Our study is the first to explicitly incorporate both taxonomic relationships and behaviors as predictor variables to identify putative avian reservoirs of B. burgdorferi s.l. Our findings underscore the importance of bird behavior to explain local tick infestation and Borrelia infection in these animals, and suggest the potential for bird-mediated geographic spread of vector ticks and spirochetes in the far-western United States.

  6. [Negative hallucination, self-onsciousness and ageing].

    PubMed

    Hazif-Thomas, C; Stephan, F; Walter, M; Thomas, P

    2015-04-01

    Negative hallucinations are characterized by a defect in perception of an object or a person, or a denial of the existence of their perception. Negative hallucinations create blank spaces, due to both an impossible representation and an incapability of investment in reality. They have a close relationship with Cotard's syndrome, delusional theme of organ denial observed in melancholic syndromes in the elderly. Phenomenological approach. The phenomenology of negative hallucinations provides quite an amount of information on the origin of the psychotic symptoms when one is rather old. The connections between hallucinations, mood disorders and negative symptoms are often difficult to live with for the nearest and dearest. Negative hallucinations require a strict approach to identify their expression that is crucial because a wide heterogeneity exists within the pathological pictures, as in Cotard's syndrome. Although the negative hallucination has an anti traumatic function in elderly people fighting against mental pain, it still represents a deficiency in symbolization. The prevalence of this symptom is without doubt underestimated, although its presence often underlines thymic suffering that is more striking. These hallucinatory symptoms have an important impact on the patients' daily life, and they appear to be prisoners of a suffering, which cannot be revealed. We propose in this article to review the clinical symptoms of negative hallucinations in the elderly and the way to manage them. The medicinal approaches are not always effective. A greater place must be given to what is in connection with the body, aiming at a strong impact and thus to offer non-pharmacological approaches, such as somatic ones, which can be either invasive (electroconvulsive therapy) or not (transcranial magnetic stimulation). Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  7. Detecting negative ions on board small satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lepri, S. T.; Raines, J. M.; Gilbert, J. A.; Cutler, J.; Panning, M.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

    2017-04-01

    Recent measurements near comets, planets, and their satellites have shown that heavy ions, energetic neutral atoms, molecular ions, and charged dust contain a wealth of information about the origin, evolution, and interaction of celestial bodies with their space environment. Using highly sensitive plasma instruments, positively charged heavy ions have been used to trace exospheric and surface composition of comets, planets, and satellites as well as the composition of interplanetary and interstellar dust. While positive ions dominate throughout the heliosphere, negative ions are also produced from surface interactions. In fact, laboratory experiments have shown that oxygen released from rocky surfaces is mostly negatively charged. Negative ions and negatively charged nanograins have been detected with plasma electron analyzers in several different environments (e.g., by Cassini and Rosetta), though more extensive studies have been challenging without instrumentation dedicated to negative ions. We discuss an adaptation of the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer (FIPS) flown on MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) for the measurement of negatively charged particles. MESSENGER/FIPS successfully measured the plasma environment of Mercury from 2011 until 2015, when the mission ended, and has been used to map multiple ion species (H+ through Na+ and beyond) throughout Mercury's space environment. Modifications to the existing instrument design fits within a 3U CubeSat volume and would provide a low mass, low power instrument, ideal for future CubeSat or distributed sensor missions seeking, for the first time, to characterize the contribution of negative particles in the heliospheric plasmas near the planets, moons, comets, and other sources.

  8. Positive rights, negative rights and health care.

    PubMed

    Bradley, Andrew

    2010-12-01

    In the current debate about healthcare reform in the USA, advocates for government-ensured universal coverage assume that health care is a right. Although this position is politically popular, it is sometimes challenged by a restricted view of rights popular with libertarians and individualists. The restricted view of rights only accepts 'negative' rights as legitimate rights. Negative rights, the argument goes, place no obligations on you to provide goods to other people and thus respect your right to keep the fruits of your labour. A classic enumeration of negative rights includes life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Positive rights, by contrast, obligate you either to provide goods to others, or pay taxes that are used for redistributive purposes. Health care falls into the category of positive rights since its provision by the government requires taxation and therefore redistribution. Therefore, the libertarian or individualist might argue that health care cannot be a true right. This paper rejects the distinction between positive and negative rights. In fact, the protection of both positive and negative rights can place obligations on others. Furthermore, because of its role in helping protect equality of opportunity, health care can be tied to the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. There is, therefore, good reason to believe that health care is a human right and that universal access should be guaranteed. The practical application, by governments and non-governmental organisations, of several of the arguments presented in this paper is also discussed.

  9. NEVER forget: negative emotional valence enhances recapitulation.

    PubMed

    Bowen, Holly J; Kark, Sarah M; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

    2018-06-01

    A hallmark feature of episodic memory is that of "mental time travel," whereby an individual feels they have returned to a prior moment in time. Cognitive and behavioral neuroscience methods have revealed a neurobiological counterpart: Successful retrieval often is associated with reactivation of a prior brain state. We review the emerging literature on memory reactivation and recapitulation, and we describe evidence for the effects of emotion on these processes. Based on this review, we propose a new model: Negative Emotional Valenc