A comparison of different statistical methods analyzing hypoglycemia data using bootstrap simulations.

PubMed

Jiang, Honghua; Ni, Xiao; Huster, William; Heilmann, Cory

2015-01-01

Hypoglycemia has long been recognized as a major barrier to achieving normoglycemia with intensive diabetic therapies. It is a common safety concern for the diabetes patients. Therefore, it is important to apply appropriate statistical methods when analyzing hypoglycemia data. Here, we carried out bootstrap simulations to investigate the performance of the four commonly used statistical models (Poisson, negative binomial, analysis of covariance [ANCOVA], and rank ANCOVA) based on the data from a diabetes clinical trial. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model were also evaluated. Simulation results showed that Poisson model inflated type I error, while negative binomial model was overly conservative. However, after adjusting for dispersion, both Poisson and negative binomial models yielded slightly inflated type I errors, which were close to the nominal level and reasonable power. Reasonable control of type I error was associated with ANCOVA model. Rank ANCOVA model was associated with the greatest power and with reasonable control of type I error. Inflated type I error was observed with ZIP and ZINB models.

A Bayesian zero-truncated approach for analysing capture-recapture count data from classical scrapie surveillance in France.

PubMed

Vergne, Timothée; Calavas, Didier; Cazeau, Géraldine; Durand, Benoît; Dufour, Barbara; Grosbois, Vladimir

2012-06-01

Capture-recapture (CR) methods are used to study populations that are monitored with imperfect observation processes. They have recently been applied to the monitoring of animal diseases to evaluate the number of infected units that remain undetected by the surveillance system. This paper proposes three bayesian models to estimate the total number of scrapie-infected holdings in France from CR count data obtained from the French classical scrapie surveillance programme. We fitted two zero-truncated Poisson (ZTP) models (with and without holding size as a covariate) and a zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) model to the 2006 national surveillance count dataset. We detected a large amount of heterogeneity in the count data, making the use of the simple ZTP model inappropriate. However, including holding size as a covariate did not bring any significant improvement over the simple ZTP model. The ZTNB model proved to be the best model, giving an estimation of 535 (CI(95%) 401-796) infected and detectable sheep holdings in 2006, although only 141 were effectively detected, resulting in a holding-level prevalence of 4.4‰ (CI(95%) 3.2-6.3) and a sensitivity of holding-level surveillance of 26% (CI(95%) 18-35). The main limitation of the present study was the small amount of data collected during the surveillance programme. It was therefore not possible to build complex models that would allow depicting more accurately the epidemiological and detection processes that generate the surveillance data. We discuss the perspectives of capture-recapture count models in the context of animal disease surveillance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental, Spatial, and Sociodemographic Factors Associated with Nonfatal Injuries in Indonesia.

PubMed

Irianti, Sri; Prasetyoputra, Puguh

2017-01-01

Background . The determinants of injuries and their reoccurrence in Indonesia are not well understood, despite their importance in the prevention of injuries. Therefore, this study seeks to investigate the environmental, spatial, and sociodemographic factors associated with the reoccurrence of injuries among Indonesian people. Methods . Data from the 2013 round of the Indonesia Baseline Health Research (IBHR 2013) were analysed using a two-part hurdle regression model. A logit regression model was chosen for the zero-hurdle part , while a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was selected for the counts part . Odds ratio (OR) and incidence rate ratio (IRR) were the measures of association, respectively. Results . The results suggest that living in a household with distant drinking water source, residing in slum areas, residing in Eastern Indonesia, having low educational attainment, being men, and being poorer are positively related to the likelihood of experiencing injury. Moreover, being a farmer or fishermen, having low educational attainment, and being men are positively associated with the frequency of injuries. Conclusion . This study would be useful to prioritise injury prevention programs in Indonesia based on the environmental, spatial, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

2014-01-01

Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are becoming increasingly popular for group size modeling. Choosing appropriate statistical distributions for modeling flock size data is fundamental to accurately estimating population summaries, determining required survey effort, and assessing and propagating uncertainty through decision-making processes.

Some considerations for excess zeroes in substance abuse research.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; DeSantis, Stacia M; Korte, Jeffrey E; Brady, Kathleen T

2011-09-01

Count data collected in substance abuse research often come with an excess of "zeroes," which are typically handled using zero-inflated regression models. However, there is a need to consider the design aspects of those studies before using such a statistical model to ascertain the sources of zeroes. We sought to illustrate hurdle models as alternatives to zero-inflated models to validate a two-stage decision-making process in situations of "excess zeroes." We use data from a study of 45 cocaine-dependent subjects where the primary scientific question was to evaluate whether study participation influences drug-seeking behavior. The outcome, "the frequency (count) of cocaine use days per week," is bounded (ranging from 0 to 7). We fit and compare binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, and the hurdle version of these models to study the effect of gender, age, time, and study participation on cocaine use. The hurdle binomial model provides the best fit. Gender and time are not predictive of use. Higher odds of use versus no use are associated with age; however once use is experienced, odds of further use decrease with increase in age. Participation was associated with higher odds of no-cocaine use; once there is use, participation reduced the odds of further use. Age and study participation are significantly predictive of cocaine-use behavior. The two-stage decision process as modeled by a hurdle binomial model (appropriate for bounded count data with excess zeroes) provides interesting insights into the study of covariate effects on count responses of substance use, when all enrolled subjects are believed to be "at-risk" of use.

Analysis of overdispersed count data: application to the Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men (HIM) Study.

PubMed

Lee, J-H; Han, G; Fulp, W J; Giuliano, A R

2012-06-01

The Poisson model can be applied to the count of events occurring within a specific time period. The main feature of the Poisson model is the assumption that the mean and variance of the count data are equal. However, this equal mean-variance relationship rarely occurs in observational data. In most cases, the observed variance is larger than the assumed variance, which is called overdispersion. Further, when the observed data involve excessive zero counts, the problem of overdispersion results in underestimating the variance of the estimated parameter, and thus produces a misleading conclusion. We illustrated the use of four models for overdispersed count data that may be attributed to excessive zeros. These are Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models. The example data in this article deal with the number of incidents involving human papillomavirus infection. The four models resulted in differing statistical inferences. The Poisson model, which is widely used in epidemiology research, underestimated the standard errors and overstated the significance of some covariates.

Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency and severity of head-on crashes: case studies from Malaysian federal roads.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Sadullah, Ahmad Farhan

2014-01-01

Head-on crashes are among the most severe collision types and of great concern to road safety authorities. Therefore, it justifies more efforts to reduce both the frequency and severity of this collision type. To this end, it is necessary to first identify factors associating with the crash occurrence. This can be done by developing crash prediction models that relate crash outcomes to a set of contributing factors. This study intends to identify the factors affecting both the frequency and severity of head-on crashes that occurred on 448 segments of five federal roads in Malaysia. Data on road characteristics and crash history were collected on the study segments during a 4-year period between 2007 and 2010. The frequency of head-on crashes were fitted by developing and comparing seven count-data models including Poisson, standard negative binomial (NB), random-effect negative binomial, hurdle Poisson, hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. To model crash severity, a random-effect generalized ordered probit model (REGOPM) was used given a head-on crash had occurred. With respect to the crash frequency, the random-effect negative binomial (RENB) model was found to outperform the other models according to goodness of fit measures. Based on the results of the model, the variables horizontal curvature, terrain type, heavy-vehicle traffic, and access points were found to be positively related to the frequency of head-on crashes, while posted speed limit and shoulder width decreased the crash frequency. With regard to the crash severity, the results of REGOPM showed that horizontal curvature, paved shoulder width, terrain type, and side friction were associated with more severe crashes, whereas land use, access points, and presence of median reduced the probability of severe crashes. Based on the results of this study, some potential countermeasures were proposed to minimize the risk of head-on crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Zero-Inflated and Overdispersed Count Data: An Empirical Study of School Suspensions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desjardins, Christopher David

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to develop a statistical model that best explains variability in the number of school days suspended. Number of school days suspended is a count variable that may be zero-inflated and overdispersed relative to a Poisson model. Four models were examined: Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson hurdle, and negative…

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhu; Shuangge, Ma; Wang, Ching-Yun

2017-01-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using an open-source R package mpath. PMID:26059498

Regular exercise and related factors in patients with Parkinson's disease: Applying zero-inflated negative binomial modeling of exercise count data.

PubMed

Lee, JuHee; Park, Chang Gi; Choi, Moonki

2016-05-01

This study was conducted to identify risk factors that influence regular exercise among patients with Parkinson's disease in Korea. Parkinson's disease is prevalent in the elderly, and may lead to a sedentary lifestyle. Exercise can enhance physical and psychological health. However, patients with Parkinson's disease are less likely to exercise than are other populations due to physical disability. A secondary data analysis and cross-sectional descriptive study were conducted. A convenience sample of 106 patients with Parkinson's disease was recruited at an outpatient neurology clinic of a tertiary hospital in Korea. Demographic characteristics, disease-related characteristics (including disease duration and motor symptoms), self-efficacy for exercise, balance, and exercise level were investigated. Negative binomial regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression for exercise count data were utilized to determine factors involved in exercise. The mean age of participants was 65.85 ± 8.77 years, and the mean duration of Parkinson's disease was 7.23 ± 6.02 years. Most participants indicated that they engaged in regular exercise (80.19%). Approximately half of participants exercised at least 5 days per week for 30 min, as recommended (51.9%). Motor symptoms were a significant predictor of exercise in the count model, and self-efficacy for exercise was a significant predictor of exercise in the zero model. Severity of motor symptoms was related to frequency of exercise. Self-efficacy contributed to the probability of exercise. Symptom management and improvement of self-efficacy for exercise are important to encourage regular exercise in patients with Parkinson's disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A review on models for count data with extra zeros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamri, Nik Sarah Nik; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2017-04-01

Typically, the zero inflated models are usually used in modelling count data with excess zeros. The existence of the extra zeros could be structural zeros or random which occur by chance. These types of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences. As found in the literature, the most popular zero inflated models used are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial. Recently, more complex models have been developed to account for overdispersion and unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, more extended distributions are also considered in modelling data with this feature. In this paper, we review related literature, provide a recent development and summary on models for count data with extra zeros.

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany.

PubMed

Wang, Zhu; Ma, Shuangge; Wang, Ching-Yun

2015-09-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, but also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using the open-source R package mpath. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Observation weights unlock bulk RNA-seq tools for zero inflation and single-cell applications.

PubMed

Van den Berge, Koen; Perraudeau, Fanny; Soneson, Charlotte; Love, Michael I; Risso, Davide; Vert, Jean-Philippe; Robinson, Mark D; Dudoit, Sandrine; Clement, Lieven

2018-02-26

Dropout events in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) cause many transcripts to go undetected and induce an excess of zero read counts, leading to power issues in differential expression (DE) analysis. This has triggered the development of bespoke scRNA-seq DE methods to cope with zero inflation. Recent evaluations, however, have shown that dedicated scRNA-seq tools provide no advantage compared to traditional bulk RNA-seq tools. We introduce a weighting strategy, based on a zero-inflated negative binomial model, that identifies excess zero counts and generates gene- and cell-specific weights to unlock bulk RNA-seq DE pipelines for zero-inflated data, boosting performance for scRNA-seq.

EM Adaptive LASSO—A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated with Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes

PubMed Central

Mallick, Himel; Tiwari, Hemant K.

2016-01-01

Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely encountered in practice. PMID:27066062

EM Adaptive LASSO-A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated with Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes.

PubMed

Mallick, Himel; Tiwari, Hemant K

2016-01-01

Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely encountered in practice.

DEsingle for detecting three types of differential expression in single-cell RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Miao, Zhun; Deng, Ke; Wang, Xiaowo; Zhang, Xuegong

2018-04-24

The excessive amount of zeros in single-cell RNA-seq data include "real" zeros due to the on-off nature of gene transcription in single cells and "dropout" zeros due to technical reasons. Existing differential expression (DE) analysis methods cannot distinguish these two types of zeros. We developed an R package DEsingle which employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model to estimate the proportion of real and dropout zeros and to define and detect 3 types of DE genes in single-cell RNA-seq data with higher accuracy. The R package DEsingle is freely available at https://github.com/miaozhun/DEsingle and is under Bioconductor's consideration now. zhangxg@tsinghua.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A New Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Methodology for Latent Category Identification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanchard, Simon J.; DeSarbo, Wayne S.

2013-01-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic…

Comparing statistical methods for analyzing skewed longitudinal count data with many zeros: an example of smoking cessation.

PubMed

Xie, Haiyi; Tao, Jill; McHugo, Gregory J; Drake, Robert E

2013-07-01

Count data with skewness and many zeros are common in substance abuse and addiction research. Zero-adjusting models, especially zero-inflated models, have become increasingly popular in analyzing this type of data. This paper reviews and compares five mixed-effects Poisson family models commonly used to analyze count data with a high proportion of zeros by analyzing a longitudinal outcome: number of smoking quit attempts from the New Hampshire Dual Disorders Study. The findings of our study indicated that count data with many zeros do not necessarily require zero-inflated or other zero-adjusting models. For rare event counts or count data with small means, a simpler model such as the negative binomial model may provide a better fit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On performance of parametric and distribution-free models for zero-inflated and over-dispersed count responses.

PubMed

Tang, Wan; Lu, Naiji; Chen, Tian; Wang, Wenjuan; Gunzler, Douglas David; Han, Yu; Tu, Xin M

2015-10-30

Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (ZINB) models are widely used to model zero-inflated count responses. These models extend the Poisson and negative binomial (NB) to address excessive zeros in the count response. By adding a degenerate distribution centered at 0 and interpreting it as describing a non-risk group in the population, the ZIP (ZINB) models a two-component population mixture. As in applications of Poisson and NB, the key difference between ZIP and ZINB is the allowance for overdispersion by the ZINB in its NB component in modeling the count response for the at-risk group. Overdispersion arising in practice too often does not follow the NB, and applications of ZINB to such data yield invalid inference. If sources of overdispersion are known, other parametric models may be used to directly model the overdispersion. Such models too are subject to assumed distributions. Further, this approach may not be applicable if information about the sources of overdispersion is unavailable. In this paper, we propose a distribution-free alternative and compare its performance with these popular parametric models as well as a moment-based approach proposed by Yu et al. [Statistics in Medicine 2013; 32: 2390-2405]. Like the generalized estimating equations, the proposed approach requires no elaborate distribution assumptions. Compared with the approach of Yu et al., it is more robust to overdispersed zero-inflated responses. We illustrate our approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Frequency distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis and other helminths of foxes in Kyrgyzstan

PubMed Central

I., Ziadinov; P., Deplazes; A., Mathis; B., Mutunova; K., Abdykerimov; R., Nurgaziev; P.R, Torgerson

2010-01-01

Echinococcosis is a major emerging zoonosis in central Asia. A study of the helminth fauna of foxes from Naryn Oblast in central Kyrgyzstan was undertaken to investigate the abundance of Echinococcus multilocularis in a district where a high prevalence of this parasite had previously been detected in dogs. A total of 151 foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were investigated in a necropsy study. Of these 96 (64%) were infected with E. multilocularis with a mean abundance of 8669 parasites per fox. This indicates that red foxes are a major definitive host of E. multilocularis in this country. This also demonstrates that the abundance and prevalence of E. multilocularis in the natural definitive host are likely to be high in geographical regions where there is a concomitant high prevalence in alternative definitive hosts such as dogs. In addition Mesocestoides spp., Dipylidium caninum, Taenia spp., Toxocara canis, Toxascaris leonina, Capillaria and Acanthocephala spp. were found in 99 (66%), 50 (33%), 48 (32%), 46 (30%), 9 (6%), 34 (23%) and 2 (1%) of foxes, respectively. The prevalence but not the abundance of E. multilocularis decreased with age. The abundance of Dipylidium caninum also decreased with age. The frequency distribution of E. multilocularis and Mesocestoides spp. followed a zero inflated negative binomial distribution, whilst all other helminths had a negative binomial distribution. This demonstrates that the frequency distribution of positive counts and not just the frequency of zeros in the data set can determine if a zero inflated or non-zero inflated model is more appropriate. This is because the prevalences of E. multolocularis and Mesocestoides spp. were the highest (and hence had fewest zero counts) yet the parasite distribution nevertheless gave a better fit to the zero inflated models. PMID:20434845

Football goal distributions and extremal statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenhough, J.; Birch, P. C.; Chapman, S. C.; Rowlands, G.

2002-12-01

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated processes. Log-normal distributions cannot include zero scores and here we find that the PDFs are consistent with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/71-2000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics.

Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

PubMed

Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

2008-03-01

There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

Effectiveness on Early Childhood Caries of an Oral Health Promotion Program for Medical Providers

PubMed Central

Widmer-Racich, Katina; Sevick, Carter; Starzyk, Erin J.; Mauritson, Katya; Hambidge, Simon J.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To assess an oral health promotion (OHP) intervention for medical providers’ impact on early childhood caries (ECC). Methods. We implemented a quasiexperimental OHP intervention in 8 federally qualified health centers that trained medical providers on ECC risk assessment, oral examination and instruction, dental referral, and fluoride varnish applications (FVAs). We measured OHP delivery by FVA count at medical visits. We measured the intervention’s impact on ECC in 3 unique cohorts of children aged 3 to 4 years in 2009 (preintervention; n = 202), 2011 (midintervention; n = 420), and 2015 (≥ 4 FVAs; n = 153). We compared numbers of decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces using adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models. Results. Across 3 unique cohorts, the FVA mean (range) count was 0.0 (0), 1.1 (0–7), and 4.5 (4–7) in 2009, 2011, and 2015, respectively. In adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models analyses, children in the 2015 cohort had significantly fewer decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces than did children in previous cohorts. Conclusions. An OHP intervention targeting medical providers reduced ECC when children received 4 or more FVAs at a medical visit by age 3 years. PMID:28661802

The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

PubMed

Sheu, Mei-Ling; Hu, Teh-Wei; Keeler, Theodore E; Ong, Michael; Sung, Hai-Yen

2004-08-01

The objective of this paper is to determine the price sensitivity of smokers in their consumption of cigarettes, using evidence from a major increase in California cigarette prices due to Proposition 10 and the Tobacco Settlement. The study sample consists of individual survey data from Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFS) and price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1996 and 1999. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was applied for the statistical analysis. The statistical model showed that price did not have an effect on reducing the estimated prevalence of smoking. However, it indicated that among smokers the price elasticity was at the level of -0.46 and statistically significant. Since smoking prevalence is significantly lower than it was a decade ago, price increases are becoming less effective as an inducement for hard-core smokers to quit, although they may respond by decreasing consumption. For those who only smoke occasionally (many of them being young adults) price increases alone may not be an effective inducement to quit smoking. Additional underlying behavioral factors need to be identified so that more effective anti-smoking strategies can be developed.

Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

PubMed

Kéry, Marc

2018-02-01

Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

A comparative study of count models: application to pedestrian-vehicle crashes along Malaysia federal roads.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Pour, Mehdi Hossein; Prasetijo, Joewono; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ghadiri, Seyed Mohammad Reza

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of various roadway characteristics on the incidence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes by developing a set of crash prediction models on 543 km of Malaysia federal roads over a 4-year time span between 2007 and 2010. Four count models including the Poisson, negative binomial (NB), hurdle Poisson (HP), and hurdle negative binomial (HNB) models were developed and compared to model the number of pedestrian crashes. The results indicated the presence of overdispersion in the pedestrian crashes (PCs) and showed that it is due to excess zero rather than variability in the crash data. To handle the issue, the hurdle Poisson model was found to be the best model among the considered models in terms of comparative measures. Moreover, the variables average daily traffic, heavy vehicle traffic, speed limit, land use, and area type were significantly associated with PCs.

Ensemble Kalman filtering in presence of inequality constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Leeuwen, P. J.

2009-04-01

Kalman filtering is presence of constraints is an active area of research. Based on the Gaussian assumption for the probability-density functions, it looks hard to bring in extra constraints in the formalism. On the other hand, in geophysical systems we often encounter constraints related to e.g. the underlying physics or chemistry, which are violated by the Gaussian assumption. For instance, concentrations are always non-negative, model layers have non-negative thickness, and sea-ice concentration is between 0 and 1. Several methods to bring inequality constraints into the Kalman-filter formalism have been proposed. One of them is probability density function (pdf) truncation, in which the Gaussian mass from the non-allowed part of the variables is just equally distributed over the pdf where the variables are alolwed, as proposed by Shimada et al. 1998. However, a problem with this method is that the probability that e.g. the sea-ice concentration is zero, is zero! The new method proposed here does not have this drawback. It assumes that the probability-density function is a truncated Gaussian, but the truncated mass is not distributed equally over all allowed values of the variables, but put into a delta distribution at the truncation point. This delta distribution can easily be handled with in Bayes theorem, leading to posterior probability density functions that are also truncated Gaussians with delta distributions at the truncation location. In this way a much better representation of the system is obtained, while still keeping most of the benefits of the Kalman-filter formalism. In the full Kalman filter the formalism is prohibitively expensive in large-scale systems, but efficient implementation is possible in ensemble variants of the kalman filter. Applications to low-dimensional systems and large-scale systems will be discussed.

A big data approach to the development of mixed-effects models for seizure count data.

PubMed

Tharayil, Joseph J; Chiang, Sharon; Moss, Robert; Stern, John M; Theodore, William H; Goldenholz, Daniel M

2017-05-01

Our objective was to develop a generalized linear mixed model for predicting seizure count that is useful in the design and analysis of clinical trials. This model also may benefit the design and interpretation of seizure-recording paradigms. Most existing seizure count models do not include children, and there is currently no consensus regarding the most suitable model that can be applied to children and adults. Therefore, an additional objective was to develop a model that accounts for both adult and pediatric epilepsy. Using data from SeizureTracker.com, a patient-reported seizure diary tool with >1.2 million recorded seizures across 8 years, we evaluated the appropriateness of Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, and modified negative binomial models for seizure count data based on minimization of the Bayesian information criterion. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to account for demographic and etiologic covariates and for autocorrelation structure. Holdout cross-validation was used to evaluate predictive accuracy in simulating seizure frequencies. For both adults and children, we found that a negative binomial model with autocorrelation over 1 day was optimal. Using holdout cross-validation, the proposed model was found to provide accurate simulation of seizure counts for patients with up to four seizures per day. The optimal model can be used to generate more realistic simulated patient data with very few input parameters. The availability of a parsimonious, realistic virtual patient model can be of great utility in simulations of phase II/III clinical trials, epilepsy monitoring units, outpatient biosensors, and mobile Health (mHealth) applications. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

Measuring moral hazard and adverse selection by propensity scoring in the mixed health care economy of Hong Kong.

PubMed

Wong, Irene O L; Lindner, Michael J; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y; Lo, Su-Vui; Leung, Gabriel M

2010-04-01

To evaluate the presence of moral hazard, adjusted for the propensity to have self-purchased insurance policies, employer-based medical benefits, and welfare-associated medical benefits in Hong Kong. Based on 2005 population survey, we used logistic regression and zero-truncated negative binomial/Poisson regressions to assess the presence of moral hazard by comparing inpatient and outpatient utilization between insured and uninsured individuals. We fitted each enabling factor specific to the type of service covered, and adjusted for predisposing socioeconomic and demographic factors. We used a propensity score approach to account for potential adverse selection. Employment-based benefits coverage was associated with increased access and intensity of use for both inpatient and outpatient care, except for public hospital use. Similarly, welfare-based coverage had comparable effect sizes as employment-based schemes, except for the total number of public ambulatory episodes. Self-purchased insurance facilitated access but did not apparently induce greater demand of services among ever users. Nevertheless, there was no evidence of moral hazard in public hospital use. Our findings suggest that employment-based benefits coverage lead to the greatest degree of moral hazard in Hong Kong. Future studies should focus on confirming these observational findings using a randomized design. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of acute care hospital services by immigrant seniors in Ontario: A linkage study.

PubMed

Ng, Edward; Sanmartin, Claudia; Tu, Jack; Manuel, Doug

2014-10-01

Seniors constitute the largest group of hospital users. The increasing share of immigrants in Canada's senior population can affect the demand for hospital care. This study used the linked 2006 Census-Hospital Discharge Abstract Database to examine hospitalization during the 2004-to-2006 period, by immigrant status, of Ontario seniors living in the community. Hospitalization was assessed with logistic regressions; cumulative length of stay, with zero-truncated negative binomial regressions. All-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations specific to circulatory and digestive diseases were examined. Immigrant seniors had significantly low age-/sex-adjusted odds of hospitalization, compared with Canadian-born seniors (OR = 0.81). The odds varied from 0.4 among East Asians to 0.89 among Europeans, and rose with length of time since arrival from 0.54 for recent (1994 to 2003) to 0.86 for long-term (before 1984) immigrants. Adjustment for demographic and socio-economic characteristics did not change the overall patterns. Immigrants' cumulated length of hospital stay tended to be shorter than or similar to that of Canadian-born seniors. Immigrant seniors, especially recent arrivals, had lower odds of hospitalization and similar time in hospital, compared with Canadian-born seniors. These patterns likely reflect differences in health status. Variations by world region and disease reflect the diverse health care needs of immigrant seniors.

Logistic quantile regression provides improved estimates for bounded avian counts: a case study of California Spotted Owl fledgling production

Treesearch

Brian S. Cade; Barry R. Noon; Rick D. Scherer; John J. Keane

2017-01-01

Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical...

Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

PubMed

Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

2016-05-01

Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Washington, Simon P; Ivan, John N

2005-01-01

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states-perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed-and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros.

Dental Caries and Enamel Defects in Very Low Birth Weight Adolescents

PubMed Central

Nelson, S.; Albert, J.M.; Lombardi, G.; Wishnek, S.; Asaad, G.; Kirchner, H.L.; Singer, L.T.

2011-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to examine developmental enamel defects and dental caries in very low birth weight adolescents with high risk (HR-VLBW) and low risk (LR-VLBW) compared to full-term (term) adolescents. Methods The sample consisted of 224 subjects (80 HR-VLBW, 59 LR-VLBW, 85 term adolescents) recruited from an ongoing longitudinal study. Sociodemographic and medical information was available from birth. Dental examination of the adolescent at the 14-year visit included: enamel defects (opacity and hypoplasia); decayed, missing, filled teeth of incisors and molars (DMFT-IM) and of overall permanent teeth (DMFT); Simplified Oral Hygiene Index for debris/calculus on teeth, and sealant presence. A caregiver questionnaire completed simultaneously assessed dental behavior, access, insurance status and prevention factors. Hierarchical analysis utilized the zero-inflated negative binomial model and zero-inflated Poisson model. Results The zero-inflated negative binomial model controlling for sociodemographic variables indicated that the LR-VLBW group had an estimated 75% increase (p < 0.05) in number of demarcated opacities in the incisors and first molar teeth compared to the term group. Hierarchical modeling indicated that demarcated opacities were a significant predictor of DMFT-IM after control for relevant covariates. The term adolescents had significantly increased DMFT-IM and DMFT scores compared to the LR-VLBW adolescents. Conclusion LR-VLBW was a significant risk factor for increased enamel defects in the permanent incisors and first molars. Term children had increased caries compared to the LR-VLBW group. The effect of birth group and enamel defects on caries has to be investigated longitudinally from birth. PMID:20975268

Binomial leap methods for simulating stochastic chemical kinetics.

PubMed

Tian, Tianhai; Burrage, Kevin

2004-12-01

This paper discusses efficient simulation methods for stochastic chemical kinetics. Based on the tau-leap and midpoint tau-leap methods of Gillespie [D. T. Gillespie, J. Chem. Phys. 115, 1716 (2001)], binomial random variables are used in these leap methods rather than Poisson random variables. The motivation for this approach is to improve the efficiency of the Poisson leap methods by using larger stepsizes. Unlike Poisson random variables whose range of sample values is from zero to infinity, binomial random variables have a finite range of sample values. This probabilistic property has been used to restrict possible reaction numbers and to avoid negative molecular numbers in stochastic simulations when larger stepsize is used. In this approach a binomial random variable is defined for a single reaction channel in order to keep the reaction number of this channel below the numbers of molecules that undergo this reaction channel. A sampling technique is also designed for the total reaction number of a reactant species that undergoes two or more reaction channels. Samples for the total reaction number are not greater than the molecular number of this species. In addition, probability properties of the binomial random variables provide stepsize conditions for restricting reaction numbers in a chosen time interval. These stepsize conditions are important properties of robust leap control strategies. Numerical results indicate that the proposed binomial leap methods can be applied to a wide range of chemical reaction systems with very good accuracy and significant improvement on efficiency over existing approaches. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Zero-inflated count models for longitudinal measurements with heterogeneous random effects.

PubMed

Zhu, Huirong; Luo, Sheng; DeSantis, Stacia M

2017-08-01

Longitudinal zero-inflated count data arise frequently in substance use research when assessing the effects of behavioral and pharmacological interventions. Zero-inflated count models (e.g. zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial) with random effects have been developed to analyze this type of data. In random effects zero-inflated count models, the random effects covariance matrix is typically assumed to be homogeneous (constant across subjects). However, in many situations this matrix may be heterogeneous (differ by measured covariates). In this paper, we extend zero-inflated count models to account for random effects heterogeneity by modeling their variance as a function of covariates. We show via simulation that ignoring intervention and covariate-specific heterogeneity can produce biased estimates of covariate and random effect estimates. Moreover, those biased estimates can be rectified by correctly modeling the random effects covariance structure. The methodological development is motivated by and applied to the Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions for Alcohol Dependence (COMBINE) study, the largest clinical trial of alcohol dependence performed in United States with 1383 individuals.

Who Visits a National Park and What do They Get Out of It?: A Joint Visitor Cluster Analysis and Travel Cost Model for Yellowstone National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, Charles; Watson, Philip; Taylor, Garth; Cook, Philip; Hollenhorst, Steve

2013-10-01

Yellowstone National Park visitor data were obtained from a survey collected for the National Park Service by the Park Studies Unit at the University of Idaho. Travel cost models have been conducted for national parks in the United States; however, this study builds on these studies and investigates how benefits vary by types of visitors who participate in different activities while at the park. Visitor clusters were developed based on activities in which a visitor participated while at the park. The clusters were analyzed and then incorporated into a travel cost model to determine the economic value (consumer surplus) that the different visitor groups received from visiting the park. The model was estimated using a zero-truncated negative binomial regression corrected for endogenous stratification. The travel cost price variable was estimated using both 1/3 and 1/4 the wage rate to test for sensitivity to opportunity cost specification. The average benefit across all visitor cluster groups was estimated at between 235 and 276 per person per trip. However, per trip benefits varied substantially across clusters; from 90 to 103 for the "value picnickers," to 185-263 for the "backcountry enthusiasts," 189-278 for the "do it all adventurists," 204-303 for the "windshield tourists," and 323-714 for the "creature comfort" cluster group.

Referent group proximity, social norms, and context: alcohol use in a low-use environment.

PubMed

Cox, Jared M; Bates, Scott C

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between perceived normative use of alcohol and reported consumption in an environment where relatively little alcohol use occurs. A total of 585 undergraduate students completed an online survey on alcohol use in March 2006. Participants reported personal alcohol use and perceptions of use by "friends," "the average student," and "the average student who drinks." Due to the large number of students reporting zero alcohol use, zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to analyze the data. Results showed that perceptions of use and beliefs about the acceptability of use by proximal groups were strongly and positively correlated with personal alcohol use. Perceptions of distal groups were either not correlated or were correlated negatively with personal use. These findings suggest that the use of distal referent groups for a social norms campaign in a low-use environment may have paradoxical effects.

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of environmental sampling culture results using the negative binomial intraclass correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Aly, Sharif S; Zhao, Jianyang; Li, Ben; Jiang, Jiming

2014-01-01

The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is commonly used to estimate the similarity between quantitative measures obtained from different sources. Overdispersed data is traditionally transformed so that linear mixed model (LMM) based ICC can be estimated. A common transformation used is the natural logarithm. The reliability of environmental sampling of fecal slurry on freestall pens has been estimated for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis using the natural logarithm transformed culture results. Recently, the negative binomial ICC was defined based on a generalized linear mixed model for negative binomial distributed data. The current study reports on the negative binomial ICC estimate which includes fixed effects using culture results of environmental samples. Simulations using a wide variety of inputs and negative binomial distribution parameters (r; p) showed better performance of the new negative binomial ICC compared to the ICC based on LMM even when negative binomial data was logarithm, and square root transformed. A second comparison that targeted a wider range of ICC values showed that the mean of estimated ICC closely approximated the true ICC.

Distinguishing between Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wroughton, Jacqueline; Cole, Tarah

2013-01-01

Recognizing the differences between three discrete distributions (Binomial, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial) can be challenging for students. We present an activity designed to help students differentiate among these distributions. In addition, we present assessment results in the form of pre- and post-tests that were designed to assess the…

Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Bence, James R.; Kepler, Megan V.; Liu, Weihai; Hayes, Daniel B.

2013-01-01

Partitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

Optimization of finite difference forward modeling for elastic waves based on optimum combined window functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Wang; Xiaohong, Meng; Hong, Liu; Wanqiu, Zheng; Yaning, Liu; Sheng, Gui; Zhiyang, Wang

2017-03-01

Full waveform inversion and reverse time migration are active research areas for seismic exploration. Forward modeling in the time domain determines the precision of the results, and numerical solutions of finite difference have been widely adopted as an important mathematical tool for forward modeling. In this article, the optimum combined of window functions was designed based on the finite difference operator using a truncated approximation of the spatial convolution series in pseudo-spectrum space, to normalize the outcomes of existing window functions for different orders. The proposed combined window functions not only inherit the characteristics of the various window functions, to provide better truncation results, but also control the truncation error of the finite difference operator manually and visually by adjusting the combinations and analyzing the characteristics of the main and side lobes of the amplitude response. Error level and elastic forward modeling under the proposed combined system were compared with outcomes from conventional window functions and modified binomial windows. Numerical dispersion is significantly suppressed, which is compared with modified binomial window function finite-difference and conventional finite-difference. Numerical simulation verifies the reliability of the proposed method.

Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

2012-01-01

Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

2015-03-01

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Martin, Juulien; Edwards, Holly H.

2013-01-01

The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts.

PubMed

Dorazio, Robert M; Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H

2013-07-01

The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

Equity in health services use and intensity of use in Canada

PubMed Central

Asada, Yukiko; Kephart, George

2007-01-01

Background The Canadian health care system has striven to remove financial or other barriers to access to medically necessary health care services since the establishment of the Canada Health Act 20 years ago. Evidence has been conflicting as to what extent the Canadian health care system has met this goal of equitable access. The objective of this study was to examine whether and where socioeconomic inequities in health care utilization occur in Canada. Methods We used a nationally representative cross-sectional survey, the 2000/01 Canadian Community Health Survey, which provides a large sample size (about 110,000) and permits more comprehensive adjustment for need indicators than previous studies. We separately examined general practitioner, specialist, and hospital services using two-part hurdle models: use versus non-use by logistic regression, and the intensity of use among users by zero-truncated negative binomial regression. Results We found that lower income was associated with less contact with general practitioners, but among those who had contact, lower income and education were associated with greater intensity of use of general practitioners. Both lower income and education were associated with less contact with specialists, but there was no statistically significant relationship between these socioeconomic variables and intensity of specialist use among the users. Neither income nor education was statistically significantly associated with use or intensity of use of hospitals. Conclusion Our study unveiled possible socioeconomic inequities in the use of health care services in Canada. PMID:17349059

Intraurban Differences in the Use of Ambulatory Health Services in a Large Brazilian City

PubMed Central

Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Proietti, Fernando Augusto; Cesar, Cibele C.; Macinko, James

2010-01-01

A major goal of health systems is to reduce inequities in access to services, that is, to ensure that health care is provided based on health needs rather than social or economic factors. This study aims to identify the determinants of health services utilization among adults in a large Brazilian city and intraurban disparities in health care use. We combine household survey data with census-derived classification of social vulnerability of each household’s census tract. The dependent variable was utilization of physician services in the prior 12 months, and the independent variables included predisposing factors, health needs, enabling factors, and context. Prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated by the Hurdle regression model, which combined Poisson regression analysis of factors associated with any doctor visits (dichotomous variable) and zero-truncated negative binomial regression for the analysis of factors associated with the number of visits among those who had at least one. Results indicate that the use of health services was greater among women and increased with age, and was determined primarily by health needs and whether the individual had a regular doctor, even among those living in areas of the city with the worst socio-environmental indicators. The experience of Belo Horizonte may have implications for other world cities, particularly in the development and use of a comprehensive index to identify populations at risk and in order to guide expansion of primary health care services as a means of enhancing equity in health. PMID:21104332

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data.

PubMed

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A; Coull, Brent A

2016-10-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias.

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data

PubMed Central

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J. Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A.; Coull, Brent A.

2015-01-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias. PMID:27867423

Prediction of vehicle crashes by drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations in Korea using a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

PubMed

Kim, Dae-Hwan; Ramjan, Lucie M; Mak, Kwok-Kei

2016-01-01

Traffic safety is a significant public health challenge, and vehicle crashes account for the majority of injuries. This study aims to identify whether drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations may predict vehicle crashes in Korea. A total of 500,000 drivers were randomly selected from the 11.6 million driver records of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea. Records of traffic crashes were obtained from the archives of the Korea Insurance Development Institute. After matching the past violation history for the period 2004-2005 with the number of crashes in year 2006, a total of 488,139 observations were used for the analysis. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine the incident risk ratio (IRR) of vehicle crashes by past violations of individual drivers. The included covariates were driver's age, gender, district of residence, vehicle choice, and driving experience. Drivers violating (1) a hit-and-run or drunk driving regulation at least once and (2) a signal, central line, or speed regulation more than once had a higher risk of a vehicle crash with respective IRRs of 1.06 and 1.15. Furthermore, female gender, a younger age, fewer years of driving experience, and middle-sized vehicles were all significantly associated with a higher likelihood of vehicle crashes. Drivers' demographic characteristics and past traffic violations could predict vehicle crashes in Korea. Greater resources should be assigned to the provision of traffic safety education programs for the high-risk driver groups.

Choosing a Transformation in Analyses of Insect Counts from Contagious Distributions with Low Means

Treesearch

W.D. Pepper; S.J. Zarnoch; G.L. DeBarr; P. de Groot; C.D. Tangren

1997-01-01

Guidelines based on computer simulation are suggested for choosing a transformation of insect counts from negative binomial distributions with low mean counts and high levels of contagion. Typical values and ranges of negative binomial model parameters were determined by fitting the model to data from 19 entomological field studies. Random sampling of negative binomial...

A new multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson model with applications to biomedicine.

PubMed

Liu, Yin; Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Yuen, Kam Chuen

2018-05-25

Recently, although advances were made on modeling multivariate count data, existing models really has several limitations: (i) The multivariate Poisson log-normal model (Aitchison and Ho, ) cannot be used to fit multivariate count data with excess zero-vectors; (ii) The multivariate zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution (Li et al., 1999) cannot be used to model zero-truncated/deflated count data and it is difficult to apply to high-dimensional cases; (iii) The Type I multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson (ZAP) distribution (Tian et al., 2017) could only model multivariate count data with a special correlation structure for random components that are all positive or negative. In this paper, we first introduce a new multivariate ZAP distribution, based on a multivariate Poisson distribution, which allows the correlations between components with a more flexible dependency structure, that is some of the correlation coefficients could be positive while others could be negative. We then develop its important distributional properties, and provide efficient statistical inference methods for multivariate ZAP model with or without covariates. Two real data examples in biomedicine are used to illustrate the proposed methods. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

PubMed

Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

2014-03-01

To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical inference involving binomial and negative binomial parameters.

PubMed

García-Pérez, Miguel A; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

2009-05-01

Statistical inference about two binomial parameters implies that they are both estimated by binomial sampling. There are occasions in which one aims at testing the equality of two binomial parameters before and after the occurrence of the first success along a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In these cases, the binomial parameter before the first success is estimated by negative binomial sampling whereas that after the first success is estimated by binomial sampling, and both estimates are related. This paper derives statistical tools to test two hypotheses, namely, that both binomial parameters equal some specified value and that both parameters are equal though unknown. Simulation studies are used to show that in small samples both tests are accurate in keeping the nominal Type-I error rates, and also to determine sample size requirements to detect large, medium, and small effects with adequate power. Additional simulations also show that the tests are sufficiently robust to certain violations of their assumptions.

Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania: The influence of sampling strategy and statistical approach

PubMed Central

Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

2017-01-01

Background Schistosoma mansoni is a parasite of major public health importance in developing countries, where it causes a neglected tropical disease known as intestinal schistosomiasis. However, the distribution of the parasite within many endemic regions is currently unknown, which hinders effective control. The purpose of this study was to characterize the prevalence and intensity of infection of S. mansoni in a remote area of western Tanzania. Methodology/Principal findings Stool samples were collected from 192 children and 147 adults residing in Gombe National Park and four nearby villages. Children were actively sampled in local schools, and adults were sampled passively by voluntary presentation at the local health clinics. The two datasets were therefore analysed separately. Faecal worm egg count (FWEC) data were analysed using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence as calculated based on the simple proportion of non-zero FWEC. For the passively sampled data from adults, the data were consistent with close to 100% true prevalence of infection. Both the prevalence and intensity of infection differed significantly between sites, but there were no significant associations with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk factors should use active sampling whenever possible, in order to avoid the self-selection bias associated with passive sampling. PMID:28934206

Analyzing hospitalization data: potential limitations of Poisson regression.

PubMed

Weaver, Colin G; Ravani, Pietro; Oliver, Matthew J; Austin, Peter C; Quinn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Poisson regression is commonly used to analyze hospitalization data when outcomes are expressed as counts (e.g. number of days in hospital). However, data often violate the assumptions on which Poisson regression is based. More appropriate extensions of this model, while available, are rarely used. We compared hospitalization data between 206 patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) and 107 treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) using Poisson regression and compared results from standard Poisson regression with those obtained using three other approaches for modeling count data: negative binomial (NB) regression, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression. We examined the appropriateness of each model and compared the results obtained with each approach. During a mean 1.9 years of follow-up, 183 of 313 patients (58%) were never hospitalized (indicating an excess of 'zeros'). The data also displayed overdispersion (variance greater than mean), violating another assumption of the Poisson model. Using four criteria, we determined that the NB and ZINB models performed best. According to these two models, patients treated with HD experienced similar hospitalization rates as those receiving PD {NB rate ratio (RR): 1.04 [bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-2.20]; ZINB summary RR: 1.21 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.60-2.46)}. Poisson and ZIP models fit the data poorly and had much larger point estimates than the NB and ZINB models [Poisson RR: 1.93 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-4.23); ZIP summary RR: 1.84 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-3.84)]. We found substantially different results when modeling hospitalization data, depending on the approach used. Our results argue strongly for a sound model selection process and improved reporting around statistical methods used for modeling count data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Remote sensing of earth terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kong, J. A.

1988-01-01

Two monographs and 85 journal and conference papers on remote sensing of earth terrain have been published, sponsored by NASA Contract NAG5-270. A multivariate K-distribution is proposed to model the statistics of fully polarimetric data from earth terrain with polarizations HH, HV, VH, and VV. In this approach, correlated polarizations of radar signals, as characterized by a covariance matrix, are treated as the sum of N n-dimensional random vectors; N obeys the negative binomial distribution with a parameter alpha and mean bar N. Subsequently, and n-dimensional K-distribution, with either zero or non-zero mean, is developed in the limit of infinite bar N or illuminated area. The probability density function (PDF) of the K-distributed vector normalized by its Euclidean norm is independent of the parameter alpha and is the same as that derived from a zero-mean Gaussian-distributed random vector. The above model is well supported by experimental data provided by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the form of polarimetric measurements.

Variable selection for distribution-free models for longitudinal zero-inflated count responses.

PubMed

Chen, Tian; Wu, Pan; Tang, Wan; Zhang, Hui; Feng, Changyong; Kowalski, Jeanne; Tu, Xin M

2016-07-20

Zero-inflated count outcomes arise quite often in research and practice. Parametric models such as the zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial are widely used to model such responses. Like most parametric models, they are quite sensitive to departures from assumed distributions. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide distribution-free, or semi-parametric, alternatives. These methods extend the generalized estimating equations to provide robust inference for population mixtures defined by zero-inflated count outcomes. In this paper, we propose methods to extend smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD)-based variable selection methods to these new models. Variable selection has been gaining popularity in modern clinical research studies, as determining differential treatment effects of interventions for different subgroups has become the norm, rather the exception, in the era of patent-centered outcome research. Such moderation analysis in general creates many explanatory variables in regression analysis, and the advantages of SCAD-based methods over their traditional counterparts render them a great choice for addressing this important and timely issues in clinical research. We illustrate the proposed approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variability in results from negative binomial models for Lyme disease measured at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Tran, Phoebe; Waller, Lance

2015-01-01

Lyme disease has been the subject of many studies due to increasing incidence rates year after year and the severe complications that can arise in later stages of the disease. Negative binomial models have been used to model Lyme disease in the past with some success. However, there has been little focus on the reliability and consistency of these models when they are used to study Lyme disease at multiple spatial scales. This study seeks to explore how sensitive/consistent negative binomial models are when they are used to study Lyme disease at different spatial scales (at the regional and sub-regional levels). The study area includes the thirteen states in the Northeastern United States with the highest Lyme disease incidence during the 2002-2006 period. Lyme disease incidence at county level for the period of 2002-2006 was linked with several previously identified key landscape and climatic variables in a negative binomial regression model for the Northeastern region and two smaller sub-regions (the New England sub-region and the Mid-Atlantic sub-region). This study found that negative binomial models, indeed, were sensitive/inconsistent when used at different spatial scales. We discuss various plausible explanations for such behavior of negative binomial models. Further investigation of the inconsistency and sensitivity of negative binomial models when used at different spatial scales is important for not only future Lyme disease studies and Lyme disease risk assessment/management but any study that requires use of this model type in a spatial context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Willingness to pay for non angler recreation at the lower Snake River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKean, J.R.; Johnson, D.; Taylor, R.G.; Johnson, Richard L.

2005-01-01

This study applied the travel cost method to estimate demand for non angler recreation at the impounded Snake River in eastern Washington. Net value per person per recreation trip is estimated for the full non angler sample and separately for camping, boating, water-skiing, and swimming/picnicking. Certain recreation activities would be reduced or eliminated and new activities would be added if the dams were breached to protect endangered salmon and steelhead. The effect of breaching on non angling benefits was found by subtracting our benefits estimate from the projected non angling benefits with breaching. Major issues in demand model specification and definition of the price variables are discussed. The estimation method selected was truncated negative binomial regression with adjustment for self selection bias.

On the zero-crossing of the three-gluon Green's function from lattice simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athenodorou, Andreas; Boucaud, Philippe; de Soto, Feliciano; Rodríguez-Quintero, José; Zafeiropoulos, Savvas

2018-03-01

We report on some efforts recently made in order to gain a better understanding of some IR properties of the 3-point gluon Green's function by exploiting results from large-volume quenched lattice simulations. These lattice results have been obtained by using both tree-level Symanzik and the standard Wilson action, in the aim of assessing the possible impact of effects presumably resulting from a particular choice for the discretization of the action. The main resulting feature is the existence of a negative log-aritmic divergence at zero-momentum, which pulls the 3-gluon form factors down at low momenta and, consequently, yields a zero-crossing at a given deep IR momentum. The results can be correctly explained by analyzing the relevant Dyson-Schwinger equations and appropriate truncation schemes.

Evaluation of the Use of Zero-Augmented Regression Techniques to Model Incidence of Campylobacter Infections in FoodNet.

PubMed

Tremblay, Marlène; Crim, Stacy M; Cole, Dana J; Hoekstra, Robert M; Henao, Olga L; Döpfer, Dörte

2017-10-01

The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) is currently using a negative binomial (NB) regression model to estimate temporal changes in the incidence of Campylobacter infection. FoodNet active surveillance in 483 counties collected data on 40,212 Campylobacter cases between years 2004 and 2011. We explored models that disaggregated these data to allow us to account for demographic, geographic, and seasonal factors when examining changes in incidence of Campylobacter infection. We hypothesized that modeling structural zeros and including demographic variables would increase the fit of FoodNet's Campylobacter incidence regression models. Five different models were compared: NB without demographic covariates, NB with demographic covariates, hurdle NB with covariates in the count component only, hurdle NB with covariates in both zero and count components, and zero-inflated NB with covariates in the count component only. Of the models evaluated, the nonzero-augmented NB model with demographic variables provided the best fit. Results suggest that even though zero inflation was not present at this level, individualizing the level of aggregation and using different model structures and predictors per site might be required to correctly distinguish between structural and observational zeros and account for risk factors that vary geographically.

Zero-truncated panel Poisson mixture models: Estimating the impact on tourism benefits in Fukushima Prefecture.

PubMed

Narukawa, Masaki; Nohara, Katsuhito

2018-04-01

This study proposes an estimation approach to panel count data, truncated at zero, in order to apply a contingent behavior travel cost method to revealed and stated preference data collected via a web-based survey. We develop zero-truncated panel Poisson mixture models by focusing on respondents who visited a site. In addition, we introduce an inverse Gaussian distribution to unobserved individual heterogeneity as an alternative to a popular gamma distribution, making it possible to capture effectively the long tail typically observed in trip data. We apply the proposed method to estimate the impact on tourism benefits in Fukushima Prefecture as a result of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant No. 1 accident. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Different truncation methods of AUC between Japan and the EU for bioequivalence assessment: influence on the regulatory judgment.

PubMed

Oishi, Masayo; Chiba, Koji; Fukushima, Takashi; Tomono, Yoshiro; Suwa, Toshio

2012-01-01

In regulatory guidelines for bioequivalence (BE) assessment, the definitions of AUC for primary assessment are different in ICH countries, i.e., AUC from zero to the last sampling point (AUCall) in Japan, AUC from zero to infinity (AUCinf) or AUC from zero to the last measurable point (AUClast) in the US, and AUClast in the EU. To assure sufficient accuracy of truncated AUC for BE assessment, the ratio of truncated AUC (AUCall or AUClast) to AUCinf should be more than 80% both in Japanese and EU guidelines. We investigated how the difference in the definition of truncated AUC affects BE assessment of sustained release (SR) formulation. Our simulation result demonstrated that AUCall/AUCinf could be ≥80% despite AUClast/AUCinf being <80% and AUCall failed to detect formulation difference. In Japanese package inserts of generic drugs in SR formulation, there were products for which AUCall/AUCinf was ≥80% though AUClast/AUCinf was <80%. In conclusion, it was confirmed that the difference in definition of truncated AUC affected the judgment of validity of truncated AUC for BE assessment, and AUCall could fail to detect the substantially different in vivo dissolution profile of generic drugs with SR formulation from the original drug.

On the zero-crossing of the three-gluon Green's function from lattice simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Athenodorou, Andreas; Boucaud, Philippe; de Soto, Feliciano

We report on some efforts recently made in order to gain a better understanding of some IR properties of the 3-point gluon Green’s function by exploiting results from large-volume quenched lattice simulations. These lattice results have been obtained by using both tree-level Symanzik and the standard Wilson action, in the aim of assessing the possible impact of effects presumably resulting from a particular choice for the discretization of the action. The main resulting feature is the existence of a negative log-aritmic divergence at zero-momentum, which pulls the 3-gluon form factors down at low momenta and, consequently, yields a zero-crossing atmore » a given deep IR momentum. The results can be correctly explained by analyzing the relevant Dyson-Schwinger equations and appropriate truncation schemes.« less

Negative Binomial Process Count and Mixture Modeling.

PubMed

Zhou, Mingyuan; Carin, Lawrence

2015-02-01

The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process for count modeling. A draw from the NB process consists of a Poisson distributed finite number of distinct atoms, each of which is associated with a logarithmic distributed number of data samples. We reveal relationships between various count- and mixture-modeling distributions and construct a Poisson-logarithmic bivariate distribution that connects the NB and Chinese restaurant table distributions. Fundamental properties of the models are developed, and we derive efficient Bayesian inference. It is shown that with augmentation and normalization, the NB process and gamma-NB process can be reduced to the Dirichlet process and hierarchical Dirichlet process, respectively. These relationships highlight theoretical, structural, and computational advantages of the NB process. A variety of NB processes, including the beta-geometric, beta-NB, marked-beta-NB, marked-gamma-NB and zero-inflated-NB processes, with distinct sharing mechanisms, are also constructed. These models are applied to topic modeling, with connections made to existing algorithms under Poisson factor analysis. Example results show the importance of inferring both the NB dispersion and probability parameters.

A new zero-inflated negative binomial methodology for latent category identification.

PubMed

Blanchard, Simon J; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2013-04-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic example and a consumer psychology study involving categories of restaurant brands illustrate how the application of the proposed methodology to the new sorting task can account for a variety of categorization phenomena including multiple category memberships and for heterogeneity through individual differences in the saliency of latent category structures.

Analysis of generalized negative binomial distributions attached to hyperbolic Landau levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chhaiba, Hassan, E-mail: chhaiba.hassan@gmail.com; Demni, Nizar, E-mail: nizar.demni@univ-rennes1.fr; Mouayn, Zouhair, E-mail: mouayn@fstbm.ac.ma

2016-07-15

To each hyperbolic Landau level of the Poincaré disc is attached a generalized negative binomial distribution. In this paper, we compute the moment generating function of this distribution and supply its atomic decomposition as a perturbation of the negative binomial distribution by a finitely supported measure. Using the Mandel parameter, we also discuss the nonclassical nature of the associated coherent states. Next, we derive a Lévy-Khintchine-type representation of its characteristic function when the latter does not vanish and deduce that it is quasi-infinitely divisible except for the lowest hyperbolic Landau level corresponding to the negative binomial distribution. By considering themore » total variation of the obtained quasi-Lévy measure, we introduce a new infinitely divisible distribution for which we derive the characteristic function.« less

Library Book Circulation and the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gelman, E.; Sichel, H. S.

1987-01-01

Argues that library book circulation is a binomial rather than a Poisson process, and that individual book popularities are continuous beta distributions. Three examples demonstrate the superiority of beta over negative binomial distribution, and it is suggested that a bivariate-binomial process would be helpful in predicting future book…

Are star formation rates of galaxies bimodal?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldmann, Robert

2017-09-01

Star formation rate (SFR) distributions of galaxies are often assumed to be bimodal with modes corresponding to star-forming and quiescent galaxies, respectively. Both classes of galaxies are typically studied separately, and SFR distributions of star-forming galaxies are commonly modelled as lognormals. Using both observational data and results from numerical simulations, I argue that this division into star-forming and quiescent galaxies is unnecessary from a theoretical point of view and that the SFR distributions of the whole population can be well fitted by zero-inflated negative binomial distributions. This family of distributions has three parameters that determine the average SFR of the galaxies in the sample, the scatter relative to the star-forming sequence and the fraction of galaxies with zero SFRs, respectively. The proposed distributions naturally account for (I) the discrete nature of star formation, (II) the presence of 'dead' galaxies with zero SFRs and (III) asymmetric scatter. Excluding 'dead' galaxies, the distribution of log SFR is unimodal with a peak at the star-forming sequence and an extended tail towards low SFRs. However, uncertainties and biases in the SFR measurements can create the appearance of a bimodal distribution.

Comparison of multiplicity distributions to the negative binomial distribution in muon-proton scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneodo, M.; Arvidson, A.; Aubert, J. J.; Badełek, B.; Beaufays, J.; Bee, C. P.; Benchouk, C.; Berghoff, G.; Bird, I.; Blum, D.; Böhm, E.; de Bouard, X.; Brasse, F. W.; Braun, H.; Broll, C.; Brown, S.; Brück, H.; Calen, H.; Chima, J. S.; Ciborowski, J.; Clifft, R.; Coignet, G.; Combley, F.; Coughlan, J.; D'Agostini, G.; Dahlgren, S.; Dengler, F.; Derado, I.; Dreyer, T.; Drees, J.; Düren, M.; Eckardt, V.; Edwards, A.; Edwards, M.; Ernst, T.; Eszes, G.; Favier, J.; Ferrero, M. I.; Figiel, J.; Flauger, W.; Foster, J.; Ftáčnik, J.; Gabathuler, E.; Gajewski, J.; Gamet, R.; Gayler, J.; Geddes, N.; Grafström, P.; Grard, F.; Haas, J.; Hagberg, E.; Hasert, F. J.; Hayman, P.; Heusse, P.; Jaffré, M.; Jachołkowska, A.; Janata, F.; Jancsó, G.; Johnson, A. S.; Kabuss, E. M.; Kellner, G.; Korbel, V.; Krüger, J.; Kullander, S.; Landgraf, U.; Lanske, D.; Loken, J.; Long, K.; Maire, M.; Malecki, P.; Manz, A.; Maselli, S.; Mohr, W.; Montanet, F.; Montgomery, H. E.; Nagy, E.; Nassalski, J.; Norton, P. R.; Oakham, F. G.; Osborne, A. M.; Pascaud, C.; Pawlik, B.; Payre, P.; Peroni, C.; Peschel, H.; Pessard, H.; Pettinghale, J.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pietrzyk, U.; Pönsgen, B.; Pötsch, M.; Renton, P.; Ribarics, P.; Rith, K.; Rondio, E.; Sandacz, A.; Scheer, M.; Schlagböhmer, A.; Schiemann, H.; Schmitz, N.; Schneegans, M.; Schneider, A.; Scholz, M.; Schröder, T.; Schultze, K.; Sloan, T.; Stier, H. E.; Studt, M.; Taylor, G. N.; Thénard, J. M.; Thompson, J. C.; de La Torre, A.; Toth, J.; Urban, L.; Urban, L.; Wallucks, W.; Whalley, M.; Wheeler, S.; Williams, W. S. C.; Wimpenny, S. J.; Windmolders, R.; Wolf, G.

1987-09-01

The multiplicity distributions of charged hadrons produced in the deep inelastic muon-proton scattering at 280 GeV are analysed in various rapidity intervals, as a function of the total hadronic centre of mass energy W ranging from 4 20 GeV. Multiplicity distributions for the backward and forward hemispheres are also analysed separately. The data can be well parameterized by binomial distributions, extending their range of applicability to the case of lepton-proton scattering. The energy and the rapidity dependence of the parameters is presented and a smooth transition from the negative binomial distribution via Poissonian to the ordinary binomial is observed.

Government capacities and stakeholders: what facilitates ehealth legislation?

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Newly established high-technology areas such as eHealth require regulations regarding the interoperability of health information infrastructures and data protection. It is argued that government capacities as well as the extent to which public and private organizations participate in policy-making determine the level of eHealth legislation. Both explanatory factors are influenced by international organizations that provide knowledge transfer and encourage private actor participation. Methods Data analysis is based on the Global Observatory for eHealth - ATLAS eHealth country profiles which summarizes eHealth policies in 114 countries. Data analysis was carried out using two-component hurdle models with a truncated Poisson model for positive counts and a hurdle component model with a binomial distribution for zero or greater counts. Results The analysis reveals that the participation of private organizations such as donors has negative effects on the level of eHealth legislation. The impact of public-private partnerships (PPPs) depends on the degree of government capacities already available and on democratic regimes. Democracies are more responsive to these new regulatory demands than autocracies. Democracies find it easier to transfer knowledge out of PPPs than autocracies. Government capacities increase the knowledge transfer effect of PPPs, thus leading to more eHealth legislation. Conclusions All international regimes – the WHO, the EU, and the OECD – promote PPPs in order to ensure the construction of a national eHealth infrastructure. This paper shows that the development of government capacities in the eHealth domain has to be given a higher priority than the establishment of PPPs, since the existence of some (initial) capacities is the sine qua non of further capacity building. PMID:24410989

Behavioral Health Treatment Patterns Among Employer-Insured Adults in Same- and Different-Gender Marriages and Domestic Partnerships.

PubMed

Tran, Linda Diem; Xu, Haiyong; Azocar, Francisca; Ettner, Susan L

2018-05-01

This study examined specialty behavioral health treatment patterns among employer-insured adults in same- and different-gender domestic partnerships and marriages. The study used behavioral health service claims (2008-2013) from Optum to estimate gender-stratified penetration rates of behavioral health service use by couple type and partnership status among partnered adults ages 18-64 (N=12,727,292 person-years) and levels of use among those with any use (conditional analyses). Least-squares, logistic, and zero-truncated negative binomial regression analyses adjusted for age, employer and plan characteristics, and provider supply and for sociodemographic factors in sensitivity analyses. Generalized estimating equations were used to address within-group correlation of adults clustered in employer groups. Both women and men in same-gender marriages or domestic partnerships had higher rates of behavioral health service use, particularly diagnostic evaluation, individual psychotherapy, and medication management, and those in treatment had, on average, more psychotherapy visits than those in different-gender marriages. Behavioral health treatment patterns were similar between women in same-gender domestic partnerships and same-gender marriages, but they diverged between men in same-gender domestic partnerships and same-gender marriages. Moderation analysis results indicated that adults with same-gender partners living in states with fewer legal protections for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender persons were less likely than adults with same-gender partners in LGBT-friendly states to receive behavioral health treatment. Sensitivity analyses did not affect findings. Behavioral health treatment patterns varied by couple type, partnership status, and gender. Results highlight the importance of increasing service acceptability and delivering inclusive, culturally relevant behavioral health treatment for lesbian, gay, and bisexual persons.

Does the Committee Peer Review Select the Best Applicants for Funding? An Investigation of the Selection Process for Two European Molecular Biology Organization Programmes

PubMed Central

Bornmann, Lutz; Wallon, Gerlind; Ledin, Anna

2008-01-01

Does peer review fulfill its declared objective of identifying the best science and the best scientists? In order to answer this question we analyzed the Long-Term Fellowship and the Young Investigator programmes of the European Molecular Biology Organization. Both programmes aim to identify and support the best post doctoral fellows and young group leaders in the life sciences. We checked the association between the selection decisions and the scientific performance of the applicants. Our study involved publication and citation data for 668 applicants to the Long-Term Fellowship programme from the year 1998 (130 approved, 538 rejected) and 297 applicants to the Young Investigator programme (39 approved and 258 rejected applicants) from the years 2001 and 2002. If quantity and impact of research publications are used as a criterion for scientific achievement, the results of (zero-truncated) negative binomial models show that the peer review process indeed selects scientists who perform on a higher level than the rejected ones subsequent to application. We determined the extent of errors due to over-estimation (type I errors) and under-estimation (type 2 errors) of future scientific performance. Our statistical analyses point out that between 26% and 48% of the decisions made to award or reject an application show one of both error types. Even though for a part of the applicants, the selection committee did not correctly estimate the applicant's future performance, the results show a statistically significant association between selection decisions and the applicants' scientific achievements, if quantity and impact of research publications are used as a criterion for scientific achievement. PMID:18941530

Inpatient care of the elderly in Brazil and India: Assessing social inequalities

PubMed Central

Channon, Andrew Amos; Andrade, Monica Viegas; Noronha, Kenya; Leone, Tiziana; Dilip, T.R.

2012-01-01

The rapidly growing older adult populations in Brazil and India present major challenges for health systems in these countries, especially with regard to the equitable provision of inpatient care. The objective of this study was to contrast inequalities in both the receipt of inpatient care and the length of time that care was received among adults aged over 60 in two large countries with different modes of health service delivery. Using the Brazilian National Household Survey from 2003 and the Indian National Sample Survey Organisation survey from 2004 inequalities by wealth (measured by income in Brazil and consumption in India) were assessed using concentration curves and indices. Inequalities were also examined through the use of zero-truncated negative binomial models, studying differences in receipt of care and length of stay by region, health insurance, education and reported health status. Results indicated that there was no evidence of inequality in Brazil for both receipt and length of stay by income per capita. However, in India there was a pro-rich bias in the receipt of care, although once care was received there was no difference by consumption per capita for the length of stay. In both countries the higher educated and those with health insurance were more likely to receive care, while the higher educated had longer stays in hospital in Brazil. The health system reforms that have been undertaken in Brazil could be credited as a driver for reducing healthcare inequalities amongst the elderly, while the significant differences by wealth in India shows that reform is still needed to ensure the poor have access to inpatient care. Health reforms that move towards a more public funding model of service delivery in India may reduce inequality in elderly inpatient care in the country. PMID:23041128

Medicare Part D Benzodiazepine Exclusion and Use of Psychotropic Medication by Patients With New Anxiety Disorders

PubMed Central

Ong, Michael K.; Zhang, Lily; Xu, Haiyong; Azocar, Francisca; Ettner, Susan L.

2015-01-01

Objective The Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) specifically excluded benzodiazepines from Medicare Part D coverage starting in 2006; however, benzodiazepines are an effective, low-cost treatment for anxiety. This study evaluated the effect of the Medicare Part D benzodiazepine coverage exclusion among patients with new anxiety disorders. Methods The authors used a quasi-experimental cohort design to study patients with new anxiety diagnoses from a large national health plan during the first six months of 2005, 2006, and 2007. Logistic and zero-truncated negative-binomial regression models using covered claims for behavioral, medical, and pharmaceutical care linked with eligibility files were used to estimate utilization and costs of psychotropic medication and health care utilization among elderly Medicare Advantage enrollees (N=8,397) subject to the MMA benzodiazepine exclusion and a comparison group of near-elderly (ages 60–64) enrollees (N=1,657) of a managed care plan. Results Medicare Advantage enrollees diagnosed in 2005 had significantly (p<.05) higher rates of covered claims for benzodiazepines and all psychotropic drugs, lower rates of covered claims for nonbenzodiazepines, and lower expenditures for psychotropic drugs than enrollees diagnosed in 2006 and 2007. There were no significant differences over time in utilization or expenditures related to psychotropic medication among the comparison group. There also were no significant changes over time in outpatient visits for behavioral care by either cohort. Conclusions Among elderly patients with new anxiety diagnoses, the MMA benzodiazepine exclusion increased use of nonbenzodiazepine psychotropic drugs without substitution of increased behavioral care. Overall, the exclusion was associated with a modest increase in covered claims for psychotropic medication. PMID:22549332

Exploring the effects of state highway safety laws and sociocultural characteristics on fatal crashes.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Nambisan, Shashi S; Clarke, David B; Sun, Jian

2017-04-03

Distinguished from the traditional perspectives in crash analyses, which examined the effects of geometric design features, traffic factors, and other relevant attributes on the crash frequencies of roadway entities, our study focuses on exploring the effects of highway safety laws, as well as sociocultural characteristics, on fatal crashes across states. Law and regulation related data were collected from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, State Highway Safety Offices, and Governors Highway Safety Association. A variety of sociodemographic characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition, cultural factors and other attributes from a variety of resources are considered and incorporated in the modeling process. These data and fatal crash counts were collected for the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia and were analyzed using zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) regression models. The results show that, in law and regulation-related factors, the use of speed cameras, no handheld cell phone ban, limited handheld cell phone ban, and no text messaging ban are found to have significant effects on fatal crashes. Regarding sociocultural characteristics, married couples with both husband and wife in the labor force are found to be associated with lower crash frequencies, the ratios of workers traveling to work by carpool, those driving alone, workers working outside the county of residence, language other than English and limited English fluency, and the number of licensed drivers are found to be associated with higher crash frequencies. Through reviewing and modeling existing state highway safety laws and sociocultural characteristics, the results reveal new insights that could influence policy making. In addition, the results would benefit amending existing laws and regulations and provide testimony about highway safety issues before lawmakers consider new legislation.

The Difference Calculus and The NEgative Binomial Distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o; Shenton, LR

2007-01-01

In a previous paper we state the dominant term in the third central moment of the maximum likelihood estimator k of the parameter k in the negative binomial probability function where the probability generating function is (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}. A partial sum of the series {Sigma}1/(k + x){sup 3} is involved, where x is a negative binomial random variate. In expectation this sum can only be found numerically using the computer. Here we give a simple definite integral in (0,1) for the generalized case. This means that now we do have a valid expression for {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(k)more » and {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(p). In addition we use the finite difference operator {Delta}, and E = 1 + {Delta} to set up formulas for low order moments. Other examples of the operators are quoted relating to the orthogonal set of polynomials associated with the negative binomial probability function used as a weight function.« less

Equivalence of truncated count mixture distributions and mixtures of truncated count distributions.

PubMed

Böhning, Dankmar; Kuhnert, Ronny

2006-12-01

This article is about modeling count data with zero truncation. A parametric count density family is considered. The truncated mixture of densities from this family is different from the mixture of truncated densities from the same family. Whereas the former model is more natural to formulate and to interpret, the latter model is theoretically easier to treat. It is shown that for any mixing distribution leading to a truncated mixture, a (usually different) mixing distribution can be found so that the associated mixture of truncated densities equals the truncated mixture, and vice versa. This implies that the likelihood surfaces for both situations agree, and in this sense both models are equivalent. Zero-truncated count data models are used frequently in the capture-recapture setting to estimate population size, and it can be shown that the two Horvitz-Thompson estimators, associated with the two models, agree. In particular, it is possible to achieve strong results for mixtures of truncated Poisson densities, including reliable, global construction of the unique NPMLE (nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator) of the mixing distribution, implying a unique estimator for the population size. The benefit of these results lies in the fact that it is valid to work with the mixture of truncated count densities, which is less appealing for the practitioner but theoretically easier. Mixtures of truncated count densities form a convex linear model, for which a developed theory exists, including global maximum likelihood theory as well as algorithmic approaches. Once the problem has been solved in this class, it might readily be transformed back to the original problem by means of an explicitly given mapping. Applications of these ideas are given, particularly in the case of the truncated Poisson family.

[Application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression in the research of risk factors for injury frequency].

PubMed

Cao, Qingqing; Wu, Zhenqiang; Sun, Ying; Wang, Tiezhu; Han, Tengwei; Gu, Chaomei; Sun, Yehuan

2011-11-01

To Eexplore the application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression analysis in analyzing the influential factors for injury frequency and the risk factors leading to the increase of injury frequency. 2917 primary and secondary school students were selected from Hefei by cluster random sampling method and surveyed by questionnaire. The data on the count event-based injuries used to fitted modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model. The risk factors incurring the increase of unintentional injury frequency for juvenile students was explored, so as to probe the efficiency of these two models in studying the influential factors for injury frequency. The Poisson model existed over-dispersion (P < 0.0001) based on testing by the Lagrangemultiplier. Therefore, the over-dispersion dispersed data using a modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model, was fitted better. respectively. Both showed that male gender, younger age, father working outside of the hometown, the level of the guardian being above junior high school and smoking might be the results of higher injury frequencies. On a tendency of clustered frequency data on injury event, both the modified Poisson regression analysis and negative binomial regression analysis can be used. However, based on our data, the modified Poisson regression fitted better and this model could give a more accurate interpretation of relevant factors affecting the frequency of injury.

Factors associated with the frequency of monitoring of liver enzymes, renal function and lipid laboratory markers among individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy: a cohort study.

PubMed

Gillis, Jennifer; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Burchell, Ann N; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina B; Loutfy, Mona; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio Sg; Tsoukas, Chris; Hogg, Robert S; Raboud, Janet

2015-10-26

As the average age of the HIV-positive population increases, there is increasing need to monitor patients for the development of comorbidities as well as for drug toxicities. We examined factors associated with the frequency of measurement of liver enzymes, renal function tests, and lipid levels among participants of the Canadian Observational Cohort (CANOC) collaboration which follows people who initiated HIV antiretroviral therapy in 2000 or later. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine the associations of demographic and clinical characteristics with the rates of measurement during follow-up. Generalized estimating equations with a logit link were used to examine factors associated with gaps of 12 months or more between measurements. Electronic laboratory data were available for 3940 of 7718 CANOC participants. The median duration of electronic follow-up was 3.5 years. The median (interquartile) rates of tests per year were 2.76 (1.60, 3.73), 2.55 (1.44, 3.38) and 1.42 (0.50, 2.52) for liver, renal and lipid parameters, respectively. In multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, individuals infected through injection drug use (IDU) were significantly less likely to have any measurements. Among participants with at least one measurement, rates of measurement of liver, renal and lipid tests were significantly lower for younger individuals and Aboriginal Peoples. Hepatitis C co-infected individuals with a history of IDU had lower rates of measurement and were at greater risk of having 12 month gaps between measurements. Hepatitis C co-infected participants infected through IDU were at increased risk of gaps in testing, despite publicly funded health care and increased risk of comorbid conditions. This should be taken into consideration in analyses examining factors associated with outcomes based on laboratory parameters.

Density of wild prey modulates lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep.

PubMed

Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B; Linnell, John D C

2013-01-01

Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore-livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed.

Density of Wild Prey Modulates Lynx Kill Rates on Free-Ranging Domestic Sheep

PubMed Central

Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B.; Linnell, John D. C.

2013-01-01

Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore–livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed. PMID:24278123

Coronary artery calcium distributions in older persons in the AGES-Reykjavik study

PubMed Central

Gudmundsson, Elias Freyr; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur; Launer, Lenore J.; Harris, Tamara B.; Aspelund, Thor

2013-01-01

Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) is a sign of advanced atherosclerosis and an independent risk factor for cardiac events. Here, we describe CAC-distributions in an unselected aged population and compare modelling methods to characterize CAC-distribution. CAC is difficult to model because it has a skewed and zero inflated distribution with over-dispersion. Data are from the AGES-Reykjavik sample, a large population based study [2002-2006] in Iceland of 5,764 persons aged 66-96 years. Linear regressions using logarithmic- and Box-Cox transformations on CAC+1, quantile regression and a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZINB) were applied. Methods were compared visually and with the PRESS-statistic, R2 and number of detected associations with concurrently measured variables. There were pronounced differences in CAC according to sex, age, history of coronary events and presence of plaque in the carotid artery. Associations with conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors varied between the sexes. The ZINB model provided the best results with respect to the PRESS-statistic, R2, and predicted proportion of zero scores. The ZINB model detected similar numbers of associations as the linear regression on ln(CAC+1) and usually with the same risk factors. PMID:22990371

Statistical Models for the Analysis of Zero-Inflated Pain Intensity Numeric Rating Scale Data.

PubMed

Goulet, Joseph L; Buta, Eugenia; Bathulapalli, Harini; Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Brandt, Cynthia A

2017-03-01

Pain intensity is often measured in clinical and research settings using the 0 to 10 numeric rating scale (NRS). NRS scores are recorded as discrete values, and in some samples they may display a high proportion of zeroes and a right-skewed distribution. Despite this, statistical methods for normally distributed data are frequently used in the analysis of NRS data. We present results from an observational cross-sectional study examining the association of NRS scores with patient characteristics using data collected from a large cohort of 18,935 veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs care diagnosed with a potentially painful musculoskeletal disorder. The mean (variance) NRS pain was 3.0 (7.5), and 34% of patients reported no pain (NRS = 0). We compared the following statistical models for analyzing NRS scores: linear regression, generalized linear models (Poisson and negative binomial), zero-inflated and hurdle models for data with an excess of zeroes, and a cumulative logit model for ordinal data. We examined model fit, interpretability of results, and whether conclusions about the predictor effects changed across models. In this study, models that accommodate zero inflation provided a better fit than the other models. These models should be considered for the analysis of NRS data with a large proportion of zeroes. We examined and analyzed pain data from a large cohort of veterans with musculoskeletal disorders. We found that many reported no current pain on the NRS on the diagnosis date. We present several alternative statistical methods for the analysis of pain intensity data with a large proportion of zeroes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Negative Urgency, Distress Tolerance, and Substance Abuse Among College Students

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Alison J.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.; Charnigo, Richard J.

2012-01-01

Objective Negative affect has been consistently linked with substance use/problems in prior research. The present study sought to build upon these findings by exploring how an individual’s characteristic responding to negative affect impacts substance abuse risk. Trait negative affect was examined in relation to substance abuse outcomes along with two variables tapping into response to negative affect: Distress Tolerance, an individual’s perceived ability to tolerate negative affect, and Negative Urgency, the tendency to act rashly while experiencing distress. Method Participants were 525 first-year college students (48.1% male, 81.1% Caucasian), who completed self-report measures assessing personality traits and alcohol-related problems, and a structured interview assessing past and current substance use. Relations were tested using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models, and each of the personality variables was tested in a model on its own, and in a model where all three traits were accounted for. Results Negative Urgency emerged as the best predictor, relating to every one of the substance use outcome variables even when trait negative affect and Distress Tolerance were accounted for. Conclusions These findings suggest that Negative Urgency is an important factor to consider in developing prevention and intervention efforts aimed at reducing substance use and problems. PMID:22698894

Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

2015-10-01

Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared with seronegative herds if the section scores were low. This study suggests that the RAMP is a valuable tool to assess the risk for JD transmission within and between herds and to determine farm-specific recommendations for JD prevention. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A quantile count model of water depth constraints on Cape Sable seaside sparrows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Dong, Q.

2008-01-01

1. A quantile regression model for counts of breeding Cape Sable seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis (L.) as a function of water depth and previous year abundance was developed based on extensive surveys, 1992-2005, in the Florida Everglades. The quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, providing a flexible alternative to discrete parametric distributional models, e.g. Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts. 2. Estimates from our multiplicative model demonstrated that negative effects of increasing water depth in breeding habitat on sparrow numbers were dependent on recent occupation history. Upper 10th percentiles of counts (one to three sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth from 0 to 30 cm when sites were not occupied in previous years. However, upper 40th percentiles of counts (one to six sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth for sites occupied in previous years. 3. Greatest decreases (-50% to -83%) in upper quantiles of sparrow counts occurred as water depths increased from 0 to 15 cm when previous year counts were 1, but a small proportion of sites (5-10%) held at least one sparrow even as water depths increased to 20 or 30 cm. 4. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model provided estimates of conditional means that also decreased with increasing water depth but rates of change were lower and decreased with increasing previous year counts compared to the quantile count model. Quantiles computed for the zero-inflated Poisson model enhanced interpretation of this model but had greater lack-of-fit for water depths > 0 cm and previous year counts 1, conditions where the negative effect of water depths were readily apparent and fitted better with the quantile count model.

Bycatch, bait, anglers, and roads: quantifying vector activity and propagule introduction risk across lake ecosystems.

PubMed

Drake, D Andrew R; Mandrak, Nicholas E

2014-06-01

Long implicated in the invasion process, live-bait anglers are highly mobile species vectors with frequent overland transport of fishes. To test hypotheses about the role of anglers in propagule transport, we developed a social-ecological model quantifying the opportunity for species transport beyond the invaded range resulting from bycatch during commercial bait operations, incidental transport, and release to lake ecosystems by anglers. We combined a gravity model with a stochastic, agent-based simulation, representing a 1-yr iteration of live-bait angling and the dynamics of propagule transport at fine spatiotemporal scales (i.e., probability of introducing n propagules per lake per year). A baseline scenario involving round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) indicated that most angling trips were benign; irrespective of lake visitation, anglers failed to purchase and transport propagules (benign trips, median probability P = 0.99912). However, given the large number of probability trials (4.2 million live-bait angling events per year), even the rarest sequence of events (uptake, movement, and deposition of propagules) is anticipated to occur. Risky trips (modal P = 0.00088 trips per year; approximately 1 in 1136) were sufficient to introduce a substantial number of propagules (modal values, Poisson model = 3715 propagules among 1288 lakes per year; zero-inflated negative binomial model = 6722 propagules among 1292 lakes per year). Two patterns of lake-specific introduction risk emerged. Large lakes supporting substantial angling activity experienced propagule pressure likely to surpass demographic barriers to establishment (top 2.5% of lakes with modal outcomes of five to 76 propagules per year; 303 high-risk lakes with three or more propagules, per year). Small or remote lakes were less likely to receive propagules; however, most risk distributions were leptokurtic with a long right tail, indicating the rare occurrence of high propagule loads to most waterbodies. Infestation simulations indicated that the number of high-risk waterbodies could be as great as 1318 (zero-inflated negative binomial), whereas a 90% reduction in bycatch from baseline would reduce the modal number of high risk lakes to zero. Results indicate that the combination of invasive bycatch and live-bait anglers warrants management concern as a species vector, but that risk is confined to a subset of individuals and recipient sites that may be effectively managed with targeted strategies.

Relating river discharge and water temperature to the recruitment of age‐0 White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1836) in the Columbia River using over‐dispersed catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, Timothy D.; Chapman, Colin G.

2018-01-01

The goals were to (i) determine if river discharge and water temperature during various early life history stages were predictors of age‐0 White Sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus, recruitment, and (ii) provide an example of how over‐dispersed catch data, including data with many zero observations, can be used to better understand the effects of regulated rivers on the productivity of depressed sturgeon populations. An information theoretic approach was used to develop and select negative binomial and zero‐inflated negative binomial models that model the relation of age‐0 White Sturgeon survey data from three contiguous Columbia River reservoirs to river discharge and water temperature during spawning, egg incubation, larval, and post‐larval phases. Age‐0 White Sturgeon were collected with small mesh gill nets in The Dalles and John Day reservoirs from 1997 to 2014 and a bottom trawl in Bonneville Reservoir from 1989 to 2006. Results suggest that seasonal river discharge was positively correlated with age‐0 recruitment; notably that discharge, 16 June–31 July was positively correlated to age‐0 recruitment in all three reservoirs. The best approximating models for two of the three reservoirs also suggest that seasonal water temperature may be a determinant of age‐0 recruitment. Our research demonstrates how over‐dispersed catch data can be used to better understand the effects of environmental conditions on sturgeon populations caused by the construction and operation of dams.

Determinants of The Grade A Embryos in Infertile Women; Zero-Inflated Regression Model.

PubMed

Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Ghaheri, Azadeh; Omani Samani, Reza

2017-10-01

In assisted reproductive technology, it is important to choose high quality embryos for embryo transfer. The aim of the present study was to determine the grade A embryo count and factors related to it in infertile women. This historical cohort study included 996 infertile women. The main outcome was the number of grade A embryos. Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression were used to model the count data as it contained excessive zeros. Stata software, version 13 (Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA) was used for all statistical analyses. After adjusting for potential confounders, results from the ZINB model show that for each unit increase in the number 2 pronuclear (2PN) zygotes, we get an increase of 1.45 times as incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23-1.69, P=0.001) in the expected grade A embryo count number, and for each increase in the cleavage day we get a decrease 0.35 times (95% CI: 0.20-0.61, P=0.001) in expected grade A embryo count. There is a significant association between both the number of 2PN zygotes and cleavage day with the number of grade A embryos in both ZINB and ZIP regression models. The estimated coefficients are more plausible than values found in earlier studies using less relevant models. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

A Mixed-Effects Heterogeneous Negative Binomial Model for Postfire Conifer Regeneration in Northeastern California, USA

Treesearch

Justin S. Crotteau; Martin W. Ritchie; J. Morgan Varner

2014-01-01

Many western USA fire regimes are typified by mixed-severity fire, which compounds the variability inherent to natural regeneration densities in associated forests. Tree regeneration data are often discrete and nonnegative; accordingly, we fit a series of Poisson and negative binomial variation models to conifer seedling counts across four distinct burn severities and...

A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.

A Kramers-Moyal Approach to the Analysis of Third-Order Noise with Applications in Option Valuation

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan M.; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula’s theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option’s and its underlier’s price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a “delta-hedged” portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise. PMID:25625856

Measuring demand for flat water recreation using a two-stage/disequilibrium travel cost model with adjustment for overdispersion and self-selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

2003-04-01

An alternate travel cost model is applied to an on-site sample to estimate the value of flat water recreation on the impounded lower Snake River. Four contiguous reservoirs would be eliminated if the dams are breached to protect endangered Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. The empirical method applies truncated negative binomial regression with adjustment for endogenous stratification. The two-stage decision model assumes that recreationists allocate their time among work and leisure prior to deciding among consumer goods. The allocation of time and money among goods in the second stage is conditional on the predetermined work time and income. The second stage is a disequilibrium labor market which also applies if employers set work hours or if recreationists are not in the labor force. When work time is either predetermined, fixed by contract, or nonexistent, recreationists must consider separate prices and budgets for time and money.

Estimating the Economic Value of National Parks with Count Data Models Using On-Site, Secondary Data: The Case of the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heberling, Matthew T.; Templeton, Joshua J.

2009-04-01

We estimate an individual travel cost model for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSD) in Colorado using on-site, secondary data. The purpose of the on-site survey was to help the National Park Service better understand the visitors of GSD; it was not intended for a travel cost model. Variables such as travel cost and income were estimated based on respondents’ Zip Codes. Following approaches found in the literature, a negative binomial model corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification fit the data the best. We estimate a recreational benefit of U.S. 89/visitor/year or U.S. 54/visitor/24-h recreational day (in 2002 U.S. ). Based on the approach presented here, there are other data sets for national parks, preserves, and battlefields where travel cost models could be estimated and used to support National Park Service management decisions.

Logistic regression for dichotomized counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Das, Kalyan; Benecha, Habtamu; Stamm, John W

2016-12-01

Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren. © The Author(s) 2014.

Feasibility of Deploying Inhaler Sensors to Identify the Impacts of Environmental Triggers and Built Environment Factors on Asthma Short-Acting Bronchodilator Use.

PubMed

Su, Jason G; Barrett, Meredith A; Henderson, Kelly; Humblet, Olivier; Smith, Ted; Sublett, James W; Nesbitt, LaQuandra; Hogg, Chris; Van Sickle, David; Sublett, James L

2017-02-01

Epidemiological asthma research has relied upon self-reported symptoms or healthcare utilization data, and used the residential address as the primary location for exposure. These data sources can be temporally limited, spatially aggregated, subjective, and burdensome for the patient to collect. First, we aimed to test the feasibility of collecting rescue inhaler use data in space-time using electronic sensors. Second, we aimed to evaluate whether these data have the potential to identify environmental triggers and built environment factors associated with rescue inhaler use and to determine whether these findings would be consistent with the existing literature. We utilized zero-truncated negative binomial models to identify triggers associated with inhaler use, and implemented three sensitivity analyses to validate our findings. Electronic sensors fitted on metered dose inhalers tracked 5,660 rescue inhaler use events in space and time for 140 participants from 13 June 2012 to 28 February 2014. We found that the inhaler sensors were feasible in passively collecting objective rescue inhaler use data. We identified several environmental triggers with a positive and significant association with inhaler use, including: AQI, PM10, weed pollen, and mold. Conversely, the spatial distribution of tree cover demonstrated a negative and significant association with inhaler use. Utilizing a sensor to capture the signal of rescue inhaler use in space-time offered a passive and objective signal of asthma activity. This approach enabled detailed analyses to identify environmental triggers and built environment factors that are associated with asthma symptoms beyond the residential address. The application of these new technologies has the potential to improve our surveillance and understanding of asthma. Citation: Su JG, Barrett MA, Henderson K, Humblet O, Smith T, Sublett JW, Nesbitt L, Hogg C, Van Sickle D, Sublett JL. 2017. Feasibility of deploying inhaler sensors to identify the impacts of environmental triggers and built environment factors on asthma short-acting bronchodilator use. Environ Health Perspect 125:254-261; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP266.

Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults.

PubMed

Conroy, David E; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L; Rebar, Amanda L

Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development.

Limits on relief through constrained exchange on random graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaViolette, Randall A.; Ellebracht, Lory A.; Gieseler, Charles J.

2007-09-01

Agents are represented by nodes on a random graph (e.g., “small world”). Each agent is endowed with a zero-mean random value that may be either positive or negative. All agents attempt to find relief, i.e., to reduce the magnitude of that initial value, to zero if possible, through exchanges. The exchange occurs only between the agents that are linked, a constraint that turns out to dominate the results. The exchange process continues until Pareto equilibrium is achieved. Only 40-90% of the agents achieved relief on small-world graphs with mean degree between 2 and 40. Even fewer agents achieved relief on scale-free-like graphs with a truncated power-law degree distribution. The rate at which relief grew with increasing degree was slow, only at most logarithmic for all of the graphs considered; viewed in reverse, the fraction of nodes that achieve relief is resilient to the removal of links.

Effects of health intervention programs and arsenic exposure on child mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Jochem, Warren C; Razzaque, Abdur; Root, Elisabeth Dowling

2016-09-01

Respiratory infections continue to be a public health threat, particularly to young children in developing countries. Understanding the geographic patterns of diseases and the role of potential risk factors can help improve future mitigation efforts. Toward this goal, this paper applies a spatial scan statistic combined with a zero-inflated negative-binomial regression to re-examine the impacts of a community-based treatment program on the geographic patterns of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) mortality in an area of rural Bangladesh. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water is also a serious threat to the health of children in this area, and the variation in exposure to arsenic must be considered when evaluating the health interventions. ALRI mortality data were obtained for children under 2 years old from 1989 to 1996 in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System. This study period covers the years immediately following the implementation of an ALRI control program. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was first used to simultaneously estimate mortality rates and the likelihood of no deaths in groups of related households while controlling for socioeconomic status, potential arsenic exposure, and access to care. Next a spatial scan statistic was used to assess the location and magnitude of clusters of ALRI mortality. The ZINB model was used to adjust the scan statistic for multiple social and environmental risk factors. The results of the ZINB models and spatial scan statistic suggest that the ALRI control program was successful in reducing child mortality in the study area. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water was not associated with increased mortality. Higher socioeconomic status also significantly reduced mortality rates, even among households who were in the treatment program area. Community-based ALRI interventions can be effective at reducing child mortality, though socioeconomic factors may continue to influence mortality patterns. The combination of spatial and non-spatial methods used in this paper has not been applied previously in the literature, and this study demonstrates the importance of such approaches for evaluating and improving public health intervention programs.

Impact of cigarette smoking on utilization of nursing home services.

PubMed

Warner, Kenneth E; McCammon, Ryan J; Fries, Brant E; Langa, Kenneth M

2013-11-01

Few studies have examined the effects of smoking on nursing home utilization, generally using poor data on smoking status. No previous study has distinguished utilization for recent from long-term quitters. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we assessed nursing home utilization by never-smokers, long-term quitters (quit >3 years), recent quitters (quit ≤3 years), and current smokers. We used logistic regression to evaluate the likelihood of a nursing home admission. For those with an admission, we used negative binomial regression on the number of nursing home nights. Finally, we employed zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate nights for the full sample. Controlling for other variables, compared with never-smokers, long-term quitters have an odds ratio (OR) for nursing home admission of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07-1.2), current smokers 1.39 (1.23-1.57), and recent quitters 1.55 (1.29-1.87). The probability of admission rises rapidly with age and is lower for African Americans and Hispanics, more affluent respondents, respondents with a spouse present in the home, and respondents with a living child. Given admission, smoking status is not associated with length of stay (LOS). LOS is longer for older respondents and women and shorter for more affluent respondents and those with spouses present. Compared with otherwise identical never-smokers, former and current smokers have a significantly increased risk of nursing home admission. That recent quitters are at greatest risk of admission is consistent with evidence that many stop smoking because they are sick, often due to smoking.

Smisc - A collection of miscellaneous functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landon Sego, PNNL

2015-08-31

A collection of functions for statistical computing and data manipulation. These include routines for rapidly aggregating heterogeneous matrices, manipulating file names, loading R objects, sourcing multiple R files, formatting datetimes, multi-core parallel computing, stream editing, specialized plotting, etc. Smisc-package A collection of miscellaneous functions allMissing Identifies missing rows or columns in a data frame or matrix as.numericSilent Silent wrapper for coercing a vector to numeric comboList Produces all possible combinations of a set of linear model predictors cumMax Computes the maximum of the vector up to the current index cumsumNA Computes the cummulative sum of a vector without propogating NAsmore » d2binom Probability functions for the sum of two independent binomials dataIn A flexible way to import data into R. dbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution df2list Row-wise conversion of a data frame to a list dfplapply Parallelized single row processing of a data frame dframeEquiv Examines the equivalence of two dataframes or matrices dkbinom Probability functions for the sum of k independent binomials factor2character Converts all factor variables in a dataframe to character variables findDepMat Identify linearly dependent rows or columns in a matrix formatDT Converts date or datetime strings into alternate formats getExtension Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path getPath Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path grabLast Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path ifelse1 Non-vectorized version of ifelse integ Simple numerical integration routine interactionPlot Two-way Interaction Plot with Error Bar linearMap Linear mapping of a numerical vector or scalar list2df Convert a list to a data frame loadObject Loads and returns the object(s) in an ".Rdata" file more Display the contents of a file to the R terminal movAvg2 Calculate the moving average using a 2-sided window openDevice Opens a graphics device based on the filename extension p2binom Probability functions for the sum of two independent binomials padZero Pad a vector of numbers with zeros parseJob Parses a collection of elements into (almost) equal sized groups pbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution pcbinom A continuous version of the binomial cdf pkbinom Probability functions for the sum of k independent binomials plapply Simple parallelization of lapply plotFun Plot one or more functions on a single plot PowerData An example of power data pvar Prints the name and value of one or more objects qbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution rbb And numerous others (space limits reporting).« less

Poisson and negative binomial item count techniques for surveys with sensitive question.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Wu, Qin; Liu, Yin

2017-04-01

Although the item count technique is useful in surveys with sensitive questions, privacy of those respondents who possess the sensitive characteristic of interest may not be well protected due to a defect in its original design. In this article, we propose two new survey designs (namely the Poisson item count technique and negative binomial item count technique) which replace several independent Bernoulli random variables required by the original item count technique with a single Poisson or negative binomial random variable, respectively. The proposed models not only provide closed form variance estimate and confidence interval within [0, 1] for the sensitive proportion, but also simplify the survey design of the original item count technique. Most importantly, the new designs do not leak respondents' privacy. Empirical results show that the proposed techniques perform satisfactorily in the sense that it yields accurate parameter estimate and confidence interval.

Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in Ontario: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moineddin, Rahim; Meaney, Christopher; Agha, Mohammad; Zagorski, Brandon; Glazier, Richard Henry

2011-08-19

Emergency departments are medical treatment facilities, designed to provide episodic care to patients suffering from acute injuries and illnesses as well as patients who are experiencing sporadic flare-ups of underlying chronic medical conditions which require immediate attention. Supply and demand for emergency department services varies across geographic regions and time. Some persons do not rely on the service at all whereas; others use the service on repeated occasions. Issues regarding increased wait times for services and crowding illustrate the need to investigate which factors are associated with increased frequency of emergency department utilization. The evidence from this study can help inform policy makers on the appropriate mix of supply and demand targeted health care policies necessary to ensure that patients receive appropriate health care delivery in an efficient and cost-effective manner. The purpose of this report is to assess those factors resulting in increased demand for emergency department services in Ontario. We assess how utilization rates vary according to the severity of patient presentation in the emergency department. We are specifically interested in the impact that access to primary care physicians has on the demand for emergency department services. Additionally, we wish to investigate these trends using a series of novel regression models for count outcomes which have yet to be employed in the domain of emergency medical research. Data regarding the frequency of emergency department visits for the respondents of Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) during our study interval (2003-2005) are obtained from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Patients' emergency department utilizations were linked with information from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) which provides individual level medical, socio-demographic, psychological and behavioral information for investigating predictors of increased emergency department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic. The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases. Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department utilization rates by approximately 43% for low severity triage level cases.

Inpatient care of the elderly in Brazil and India: assessing social inequalities.

PubMed

Channon, Andrew Amos; Andrade, Monica Viegas; Noronha, Kenya; Leone, Tiziana; Dilip, T R

2012-12-01

The rapidly growing older adult populations in Brazil and India present major challenges for health systems in these countries, especially with regard to the equitable provision of inpatient care. The objective of this study was to contrast inequalities in both the receipt of inpatient care and the length of time that care was received among adults aged over 60 in two large countries with different modes of health service delivery. Using the Brazilian National Household Survey from 2003 and the Indian National Sample Survey Organisation survey from 2004 inequalities by wealth (measured by income in Brazil and consumption in India) were assessed using concentration curves and indices. Inequalities were also examined through the use of zero-truncated negative binomial models, studying differences in receipt of care and length of stay by region, health insurance, education and reported health status. Results indicated that there was no evidence of inequality in Brazil for both receipt and length of stay by income per capita. However, in India there was a pro-rich bias in the receipt of care, although once care was received there was no difference by consumption per capita for the length of stay. In both countries the higher educated and those with health insurance were more likely to receive care, while the higher educated had longer stays in hospital in Brazil. The health system reforms that have been undertaken in Brazil could be credited as a driver for reducing healthcare inequalities amongst the elderly, while the significant differences by wealth in India shows that reform is still needed to ensure the poor have access to inpatient care. Health reforms that move towards a more public funding model of service delivery in India may reduce inequality in elderly inpatient care in the country. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender-Specific Determinants and Patterns of Online Health Information Seeking: Results From a Representative German Health Survey

PubMed Central

Baumann, Eva; Czerwinski, Fabian

2017-01-01

Background Online health information-seeking behavior (OHISB) is currently a widespread and common behavior that has been described as an important prerequisite of empowerment and health literacy. Although demographic factors such as socioeconomic status (SES), age, and gender have been identified as important determinants of OHISB, research is limited regarding the gender-specific motivational determinants of OHISB and differences between women and men in the use of online resources for health information purposes. Objective The aim of this study was to identify gender-specific determinants and patterns of OHISB by analyzing data from a representative German sample of adults (N=1728) with special attention to access and frequency of use as well as topics and sources of OHISB. Methods We employed a 2-step analysis, that is, after exploring differences between users and nonusers of online health information using logistic regression models, we highlighted gender-specific determinants of the frequency of OHISB by applying zero-truncated negative binomial models. Results Age (odds ratio, OR for females=0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99) and degree of satisfaction with one’s general practitioner (GP) (OR for males=0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.92) were gender-specific determinants of access to OHISB. Regarding the frequency of OHISB, daily Internet use (incidence rate ratio, IRR=1.67, 95% CI 1.19-2.33) and a strong interest in health topics (IRR=1.45, 95% CI 1.19-1.77) were revealed to be more important predictors than SES (IRR for high SES=1.25, 95% CI 0.91-1.73). Conclusions Users indicate that the Internet seems to be capable of providing a valuable source of informational support and patient empowerment. Increasing the potential value of the Internet as a source for health literacy and patient empowerment requires need-oriented and gender-specific health communication efforts, media, and information strategies. PMID:28377367

Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults

PubMed Central

Conroy, David E.; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L.; Rebar, Amanda L.

2015-01-01

Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development. PMID:25859164

Data mining of tree-based models to analyze freeway accident frequency.

PubMed

Chang, Li-Yen; Chen, Wen-Chieh

2005-01-01

Statistical models, such as Poisson or negative binomial regression models, have been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency for many years. However, these models have their own model assumptions and pre-defined underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables. If these assumptions are violated, the model could lead to erroneous estimation of accident likelihood. Classification and Regression Tree (CART), one of the most widely applied data mining techniques, has been commonly employed in business administration, industry, and engineering. CART does not require any pre-defined underlying relationship between target (dependent) variable and predictors (independent variables) and has been shown to be a powerful tool, particularly for dealing with prediction and classification problems. This study collected the 2001-2002 accident data of National Freeway 1 in Taiwan. A CART model and a negative binomial regression model were developed to establish the empirical relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric variables, traffic characteristics, and environmental factors. The CART findings indicated that the average daily traffic volume and precipitation variables were the key determinants for freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies.

Criticality of the mean-field spin-boson model: boson state truncation and its scaling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Y.-H.; Tong, N.-H.

2010-11-01

The spin-boson model has nontrivial quantum phase transitions at zero temperature induced by the spin-boson coupling. The bosonic numerical renormalization group (BNRG) study of the critical exponents β and δ of this model is hampered by the effects of boson Hilbert space truncation. Here we analyze the mean-field spin boson model to figure out the scaling behavior of magnetization under the cutoff of boson states N b . We find that the truncation is a strong relevant operator with respect to the Gaussian fixed point in 0 < s < 1/2 and incurs the deviation of the exponents from the classical values. The magnetization at zero bias near the critical point is described by a generalized homogeneous function (GHF) of two variables τ = α - α c and x = 1/ N b . The universal function has a double-power form and the powers are obtained analytically as well as numerically. Similarly, m( α = α c ) is found to be a GHF of γ and x. In the regime s > 1/2, the truncation produces no effect. Implications of these findings to the BNRG study are discussed.

The Fano-type transmission and field enhancement in heterostructures composed of epsilon-near-zero materials and truncated photonic crystals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Zhi-fang; Jiang, Hai-tao, E-mail: davies2000@163.com, E-mail: jiang-haitao@tongji.edu.cn; Li, Yun-hui

2013-11-11

The Fano-type interference effect is studied in the heterostructure composed of an epsilon-near-zero (ENZ) material and a truncated photonic crystal for transverse magnetic polarized light. In the Fano-type interference effect, the ENZ material provides narrow reflection pathway and the photonic crystal provides broadband reflection pathway. The boundary condition across the ENZ interface and the confinement effect provided by the photonic crystal can enhance the electric fields in the ENZ material greatly. The field enhancements, together with the asymmetric property of Fano-type spectrum, possess potential applications for significantly lowering the threshold of nonlinear processes such as optical switching and bistability.

Codestream-Based Identification of JPEG 2000 Images with Different Coding Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Osamu; Fukuhara, Takahiro; Kiya, Hitoshi

A method of identifying JPEG 2000 images with different coding parameters, such as code-block sizes, quantization-step sizes, and resolution levels, is presented. It does not produce false-negative matches regardless of different coding parameters (compression rate, code-block size, and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) resolutions levels) or quantization step sizes. This feature is not provided by conventional methods. Moreover, the proposed approach is fast because it uses the number of zero-bit-planes that can be extracted from the JPEG 2000 codestream by only parsing the header information without embedded block coding with optimized truncation (EBCOT) decoding. The experimental results revealed the effectiveness of image identification based on the new method.

Risk factors related to Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats.

PubMed

Deng, Huifang; Dam-Deisz, Cecile; Luttikholt, Saskia; Maas, Miriam; Nielen, Mirjam; Swart, Arno; Vellema, Piet; van der Giessen, Joke; Opsteegh, Marieke

2016-02-01

Toxoplasma gondii can cause disease in goats, but also has impact on human health through food-borne transmission. Our aims were to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats and to identify the risk factors related to T. gondii seroprevalence. Fifty-two out of ninety approached farmers with indoor-kept goats (58%) participated by answering a standardized questionnaire and contributing 32 goat blood samples each. Serum samples were tested for T. gondii SAG1 antibodies by ELISA and results showed that the frequency distribution of the log10-transformed OD-values fitted well with a binary mixture of a shifted gamma and a shifted reflected gamma distribution. The overall animal seroprevalence was 13.3% (95% CI: 11.7–14.9%), and at least one seropositive animal was found on 61.5% (95% CI: 48.3–74.7%) of the farms. To evaluate potential risk factors on herd level, three modeling strategies (Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated) were compared. The negative binomial model fitted the data best with the number of cats (1–4 cats: IR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1–6.5; > = 5 cats:IR: 14.2, 95% CI: 3.9–51.1) and mean animal age (IR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1–2.1) related to herd positivity. In conclusion, the ELISA test was 100% sensitive and specific based on binary mixture analysis. T. gondii infection is prevalent in indoor housed Dutch dairy goats but at a lower overall animal level seroprevalence than outdoor farmed goats in other European countries, and cat exposure is an important risk factor.

Household expenditure on leprosy outpatient services in the Indian health system: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Suryawanshi, Pramilesh; Raikwar, Akash; Arif, Mohammad; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

2018-01-01

Background Leprosy is a major public health problem in many low and middle income countries, especially in India, and contributes considerably to the global burden of the disease. Leprosy and poverty are closely associated, and therefore the economic burden of leprosy is a concern. However, evidence on patient’s expenditure is scarce. In this study, we estimate the expenditure in primary care (outpatient) by leprosy households in two different public health settings. Methodology/Principal findings We performed a cross-sectional study, comparing the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli with the Umbergaon block of Valsad, Gujrat, India. A household (HH) survey was conducted between May and October, 2016. We calculated direct and indirect expenditure by zero inflated negative binomial and negative binomial regression. The sampled households were comparable on socioeconomic indicators. The mean direct expenditure was USD 6.5 (95% CI: 2.4–17.9) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 5.4 (95% CI: 3.8–7.9) per visit in Umbergaon. The mean indirect expenditure was USD 8.7 (95% CI: 7.2–10.6) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 12.4 (95% CI: 7.0–21.9) in Umbergaon. The age of the leprosy patients and type of health facilities were the major predictors of total expenditure on leprosy primary care. The higher the age, the higher the expenditure at both sites. The private facilities are more expensive than the government facilities at both sites. If the public health system is enhanced, government facilities are the first preference for patients. Conclusions/Significance An enhanced public health system reduces the patient’s expenditure and improves the health seeking behaviour. We recommend investing in health system strengthening to reduce the economic burden of leprosy. PMID:29300747

Dispersion and sampling of adult Dermacentor andersoni in rangeland in Western North America.

PubMed

Rochon, K; Scoles, G A; Lysyk, T J

2012-03-01

A fixed precision sampling plan was developed for off-host populations of adult Rocky Mountain wood tick, Dermacentor andersoni (Stiles) based on data collected by dragging at 13 locations in Alberta, Canada; Washington; and Oregon. In total, 222 site-date combinations were sampled. Each site-date combination was considered a sample, and each sample ranged in size from 86 to 250 10 m2 quadrats. Analysis of simulated quadrats ranging in size from 10 to 50 m2 indicated that the most precise sample unit was the 10 m2 quadrat. Samples taken when abundance < 0.04 ticks per 10 m2 were more likely to not depart significantly from statistical randomness than samples taken when abundance was greater. Data were grouped into ten abundance classes and assessed for fit to the Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The Poisson distribution fit only data in abundance classes < 0.02 ticks per 10 m2, while the negative binomial distribution fit data from all abundance classes. A negative binomial distribution with common k = 0.3742 fit data in eight of the 10 abundance classes. Both the Taylor and Iwao mean-variance relationships were fit and used to predict sample sizes for a fixed level of precision. Sample sizes predicted using the Taylor model tended to underestimate actual sample sizes, while sample sizes estimated using the Iwao model tended to overestimate actual sample sizes. Using a negative binomial with common k provided estimates of required sample sizes closest to empirically calculated sample sizes.

Assessment of DSM-5 Section II Personality Disorders With the MMPI-2-RF in a Nonclinical Sample.

PubMed

Sellbom, Martin; Smith, Alexander

2017-01-01

The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF; Ben-Porath & Tellegen, 2008 / 2011 ) is frequently used in clinical practice. However, there has been a dearth of literature on how well this instrument can assess symptoms associated with personality disorders (PDs). This investigation examined a range of hypothesized MMPI-2-RF scales in predicting PD symptoms. We evaluated these associations in a sample of 397 university students who had been administered the MMPI-2-RF and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis II Disorders-Personality Questionnaire (First, Gibbon, Spitzer, Williams, & Benjamin, 1997 ). Zero-order correlation analyses and negative binomial regression models indicated that a wide range of MMPI-2-RF scale hypotheses were supported; however, the least support was available for predicting schizoid and obsessive-compulsive PDs. Implications for MMPI-2-RF interpretation and PD diagnosis are discussed.

Mental Health Symptoms Among Student Service Members/Veterans and Civilian College Students.

PubMed

Cleveland, Sandi D; Branscum, Adam J; Bovbjerg, Viktor E; Thorburn, Sheryl

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate if and to what extent student service members/veterans differ from civilian college students in the prevalence of self-reported symptoms of poor mental health. The Fall 2011 implementation of the American College Health Association-National College Health Assessment included 27,774 respondents from 44 colleges and universities. Participants were matched using propensity scores, and the prevalence of symptoms was compared using logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The odds of feeling overwhelmed in the last 12 months were significantly lower among student service members/veterans with a history of hazardous duty (odd ratio [OR] = 0.46, adjusted p value <.05) compared with civilian students. Military service, with and without hazardous duty deployment, was not a significant predictor of the total number of symptoms of poor mental health. Current student service members/veterans may not be disproportionately affected by poor psychological functioning.

Response of selected binomial coefficients to varying degrees of matrix sparseness and to matrices with known data interrelationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archer, A.W.; Maples, C.G.

1989-01-01

Numerous departures from ideal relationships are revealed by Monte Carlo simulations of widely accepted binomial coefficients. For example, simulations incorporating varying levels of matrix sparseness (presence of zeros indicating lack of data) and computation of expected values reveal that not only are all common coefficients influenced by zero data, but also that some coefficients do not discriminate between sparse or dense matrices (few zero data). Such coefficients computationally merge mutually shared and mutually absent information and do not exploit all the information incorporated within the standard 2 ?? 2 contingency table; therefore, the commonly used formulae for such coefficients are more complicated than the actual range of values produced. Other coefficients do differentiate between mutual presences and absences; however, a number of these coefficients do not demonstrate a linear relationship to matrix sparseness. Finally, simulations using nonrandom matrices with known degrees of row-by-row similarities signify that several coefficients either do not display a reasonable range of values or are nonlinear with respect to known relationships within the data. Analyses with nonrandom matrices yield clues as to the utility of certain coefficients for specific applications. For example, coefficients such as Jaccard, Dice, and Baroni-Urbani and Buser are useful if correction of sparseness is desired, whereas the Russell-Rao coefficient is useful when sparseness correction is not desired. ?? 1989 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Solving the problem of negative populations in approximate accelerated stochastic simulations using the representative reaction approach.

PubMed

Kadam, Shantanu; Vanka, Kumar

2013-02-15

Methods based on the stochastic formulation of chemical kinetics have the potential to accurately reproduce the dynamical behavior of various biochemical systems of interest. However, the computational expense makes them impractical for the study of real systems. Attempts to render these methods practical have led to the development of accelerated methods, where the reaction numbers are modeled by Poisson random numbers. However, for certain systems, such methods give rise to physically unrealistic negative numbers for species populations. The methods which make use of binomial variables, in place of Poisson random numbers, have since become popular, and have been partially successful in addressing this problem. In this manuscript, the development of two new computational methods, based on the representative reaction approach (RRA), has been discussed. The new methods endeavor to solve the problem of negative numbers, by making use of tools like the stochastic simulation algorithm and the binomial method, in conjunction with the RRA. It is found that these newly developed methods perform better than other binomial methods used for stochastic simulations, in resolving the problem of negative populations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Influence of the starting temperature of calorimetric measurements on the accuracy of determined magnetocaloric effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moreno-Ramirez, L. M.; Franco, V.; Conde, A.

Availability of a restricted heat capacity data range has a clear influence on the accuracy of calculated magnetocaloric effect, as confirmed by both numerical simulations and experimental measurements. Simulations using the Bean-Rodbell model show that, in general, the approximated magnetocaloric effect curves calculated using a linear extrapolation of the data starting from a selected temperature point down to zero kelvin deviate in a non-monotonic way from those correctly calculated by fully integrating the data from near zero temperatures. However, we discovered that a particular temperature range exists where the approximated magnetocaloric calculation provides the same result as the fully integratedmore » one. These specific truncated intervals exist for both first and second order phase transitions and are the same for the adiabatic temperature change and magnetic entropy change curves. Here, the effect of this truncated integration in real samples was confirmed using heat capacity data of Gd metal and Gd 5Si 2Ge 2 compound measured from near zero temperatures.« less

Influence of the starting temperature of calorimetric measurements on the accuracy of determined magnetocaloric effect

DOE PAGES

Moreno-Ramirez, L. M.; Franco, V.; Conde, A.; ...

2018-02-27

Availability of a restricted heat capacity data range has a clear influence on the accuracy of calculated magnetocaloric effect, as confirmed by both numerical simulations and experimental measurements. Simulations using the Bean-Rodbell model show that, in general, the approximated magnetocaloric effect curves calculated using a linear extrapolation of the data starting from a selected temperature point down to zero kelvin deviate in a non-monotonic way from those correctly calculated by fully integrating the data from near zero temperatures. However, we discovered that a particular temperature range exists where the approximated magnetocaloric calculation provides the same result as the fully integratedmore » one. These specific truncated intervals exist for both first and second order phase transitions and are the same for the adiabatic temperature change and magnetic entropy change curves. Here, the effect of this truncated integration in real samples was confirmed using heat capacity data of Gd metal and Gd 5Si 2Ge 2 compound measured from near zero temperatures.« less

Predictors and moderators of outcomes of HIV/STD sex risk reduction interventions in substance abuse treatment programs: a pooled analysis of two randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Crits-Christoph, Paul; Gallop, Robert; Sadicario, Jaclyn S; Markell, Hannah M; Calsyn, Donald A; Tang, Wan; He, Hua; Tu, Xin; Woody, George

2014-01-16

The objective of the current study was to examine predictors and moderators of response to two HIV sexual risk interventions of different content and duration for individuals in substance abuse treatment programs. Participants were recruited from community drug treatment programs participating in the National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network (CTN). Data were pooled from two parallel randomized controlled CTN studies (one with men and one with women) each examining the impact of a multi-session motivational and skills training program, in comparison to a single-session HIV education intervention, on the degree of reduction in unprotected sex from baseline to 3- and 6- month follow-ups. The findings were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. Severity of drug use (p < .01), gender (p < .001), and age (p < .001) were significant main effect predictors of number of unprotected sexual occasions (USOs) at follow-up in the non-zero portion of the ZINB model (men, younger participants, and those with greater severity of drug/alcohol abuse have more USOs). Monogamous relationship status (p < .001) and race/ethnicity (p < .001) were significant predictors of having at least one USO vs. none (monogamous individuals and African Americans were more likely to have at least one USO). Significant moderators of intervention effectiveness included recent sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol (p < .01 in non-zero portion of model), duration of abuse of primary drug (p < .05 in non-zero portion of model), and Hispanic ethnicity (p < .01 in the zero portion, p < .05 in the non-zero portion of model). These predictor and moderator findings point to ways in which patients may be selected for the different HIV sexual risk reduction interventions and suggest potential avenues for further development of the interventions for increasing their effectiveness within certain subgroups.

Earthquake number forecasts testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagan, Yan Y.

2017-10-01

We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness and kurtosis both tend to zero for large earthquake rates: for the Gaussian law, these values are identically zero. A calculation of the NBD skewness and kurtosis levels based on the values of the first two statistical moments of the distribution, shows rapid increase of these upper moments levels. However, the observed catalogue values of skewness and kurtosis are rising even faster. This means that for small time intervals, the earthquake number distribution is even more heavy-tailed than the NBD predicts. Therefore for small time intervals, we propose using empirical number distributions appropriately smoothed for testing forecasted earthquake numbers.

Distribution pattern of public transport passenger in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narendra, Alfa; Malkhamah, Siti; Sopha, Bertha Maya

2018-03-01

The arrival and departure distribution pattern of Trans Jogja bus passenger is one of the fundamental model for simulation. The purpose of this paper is to build models of passengers flows. This research used passengers data from January to May 2014. There is no policy that change the operation system affecting the nature of this pattern nowadays. The roads, buses, land uses, schedule, and people are relatively still the same. The data then categorized based on the direction, days, and location. Moreover, each category was fitted into some well-known discrete distributions. Those distributions are compared based on its AIC value and BIC. The chosen distribution model has the smallest AIC and BIC value and the negative binomial distribution found has the smallest AIC and BIC value. Probability mass function (PMF) plots of those models were compared to draw generic model from each categorical negative binomial distribution models. The value of accepted generic negative binomial distribution is 0.7064 and 1.4504 of mu. The minimum and maximum passenger vector value of distribution are is 0 and 41.

Modelling parasite aggregation: disentangling statistical and ecological approaches.

PubMed

Yakob, Laith; Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J; Gray, Darren J; Milinovich, Gabriel; Wardrop, Nicola; Dunning, Rebecca; Barendregt, Jan; Bieri, Franziska; Williams, Gail M; Clements, Archie C A

2014-05-01

The overdispersion in macroparasite infection intensity among host populations is commonly simulated using a constant negative binomial aggregation parameter. We describe an alternative to utilising the negative binomial approach and demonstrate important disparities in intervention efficacy projections that can come about from opting for pattern-fitting models that are not process-explicit. We present model output in the context of the epidemiology and control of soil-transmitted helminths due to the significant public health burden imposed by these parasites, but our methods are applicable to other infections with demonstrable aggregation in parasite numbers among hosts. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

PubMed

Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

2012-10-04

The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size. Regions with larger populations (regions 4 and 6) had higher values of EA than region 10 (which had the smallest population) for negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms. The difference was 12.5% and 13.5% on average in negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms, respectively. We present the first detailed comparative analysis of popular early epidemic detection algorithms on Google Flu Trends data. We note that realizing this opportunity requires moving beyond the cumulative sum and historical limits method-based normal distribution approaches, traditionally employed by the CDC, to negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms to deal with potentially noisy search query data from regions with varying population and Internet penetrations. Based on our work, we have developed FluBreaks, an early warning system for flu epidemics using Google Flu Trends.

Crash Frequency Analysis Using Hurdle Models with Random Effects Considering Short-Term Panel Data

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Ma, Xiaoxiang; Chen, Suren; Yang, Lin

2016-01-01

Random effect panel data hurdle models are established to research the daily crash frequency on a mountainous section of highway I-70 in Colorado. Road Weather Information System (RWIS) real-time traffic and weather and road surface conditions are merged into the models incorporating road characteristics. The random effect hurdle negative binomial (REHNB) model is developed to study the daily crash frequency along with three other competing models. The proposed model considers the serial correlation of observations, the unbalanced panel-data structure, and dominating zeroes. Based on several statistical tests, the REHNB model is identified as the most appropriate one among four candidate models for a typical mountainous highway. The results show that: (1) the presence of over-dispersion in the short-term crash frequency data is due to both excess zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the crash data; and (2) the REHNB model is suitable for this type of data. Moreover, time-varying variables including weather conditions, road surface conditions and traffic conditions are found to play importation roles in crash frequency. Besides the methodological advancements, the proposed technology bears great potential for engineering applications to develop short-term crash frequency models by utilizing detailed data from field monitoring data such as RWIS, which is becoming more accessible around the world. PMID:27792209

Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

PubMed

Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

2015-01-01

Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

Modeling Forest Fire Occurrences Using Count-Data Mixed Models in Qiannan Autonomous Prefecture of Guizhou Province in China

PubMed Central

Ji, Ping

2015-01-01

Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence. PMID:25790309

The influence of impulsiveness on binge eating and problem gambling: A prospective study of gender differences in Canadian adults.

PubMed

Farstad, Sarah M; von Ranson, Kristin M; Hodgins, David C; El-Guebaly, Nady; Casey, David M; Schopflocher, Don P

2015-09-01

This study investigated the degree to which facets of impulsiveness predicted future binge eating and problem gambling, 2 theorized forms of behavioral addiction. Participants were 596 women and 406 men from 4 age cohorts randomly recruited from a Canadian province. Participants completed self-report measures of 3 facets of impulsiveness (negative urgency, sensation seeking, lack of persistence), binge-eating frequency, and problem-gambling symptoms. Impulsiveness was assessed at baseline, and assessments of binge eating and problem gambling were followed up after 3 years. Weighted data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial and Poisson regression models. We found evidence of transdiagnostic and disorder-specific predictors of binge eating and problem gambling. Negative urgency emerged as a common predictor of binge eating and problem gambling among women and men. There were disorder-specific personality traits identified among men only: High lack-of-persistence scores predicted binge eating and high sensation-seeking scores predicted problem gambling. Among women, younger age predicted binge eating and older age predicted problem gambling. Thus, there are gender differences in facets of impulsiveness that longitudinally predict binge eating and problem gambling, suggesting that treatments for these behaviors should consider gender-specific personality and demographic traits in addition to the common personality trait of negative urgency. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Calibration of short rate term structure models from bid-ask coupon bond prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes-Gonçalves, Erika; Gzyl, Henryk; Mayoral, Silvia

2018-02-01

In this work we use the method of maximum entropy in the mean to provide a model free, non-parametric methodology that uses only market data to provide the prices of the zero coupon bonds, and then, a term structure of the short rates. The data used consists of the prices of the bid-ask ranges of a few coupon bonds quoted in the market. The prices of the zero coupon bonds obtained in the first stage, are then used as input to solve a recursive set of equations to determine a binomial recombinant model of the short term structure of the interest rates.

Bayesian inference for disease prevalence using negative binomial group testing

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Nicholas A.; Tebbs, Joshua M.

2011-01-01

Group testing, also known as pooled testing, and inverse sampling are both widely used methods of data collection when the goal is to estimate a small proportion. Taking a Bayesian approach, we consider the new problem of estimating disease prevalence from group testing when inverse (negative binomial) sampling is used. Using different distributions to incorporate prior knowledge of disease incidence and different loss functions, we derive closed form expressions for posterior distributions and resulting point and credible interval estimators. We then evaluate our new estimators, on Bayesian and classical grounds, and apply our methods to a West Nile Virus data set. PMID:21259308

Use of negative binomial distribution to describe the presence of Anisakis in Thyrsites atun.

PubMed

Peña-Rehbein, Patricio; De los Ríos-Escalante, Patricio

2012-01-01

Nematodes of the genus Anisakis have marine fishes as intermediate hosts. One of these hosts is Thyrsites atun, an important fishery resource in Chile between 38 and 41° S. This paper describes the frequency and number of Anisakis nematodes in the internal organs of Thyrsites atun. An analysis based on spatial distribution models showed that the parasites tend to be clustered. The variation in the number of parasites per host could be described by the negative binomial distribution. The maximum observed number of parasites was nine parasites per host. The environmental and zoonotic aspects of the study are also discussed.

HYPERSAMP - HYPERGEOMETRIC ATTRIBUTE SAMPLING SYSTEM BASED ON RISK AND FRACTION DEFECTIVE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De, Salvo L. J.

1994-01-01

HYPERSAMP is a demonstration of an attribute sampling system developed to determine the minimum sample size required for any preselected value for consumer's risk and fraction of nonconforming. This statistical method can be used in place of MIL-STD-105E sampling plans when a minimum sample size is desirable, such as when tests are destructive or expensive. HYPERSAMP utilizes the Hypergeometric Distribution and can be used for any fraction nonconforming. The program employs an iterative technique that circumvents the obstacle presented by the factorial of a non-whole number. HYPERSAMP provides the required Hypergeometric sample size for any equivalent real number of nonconformances in the lot or batch under evaluation. Many currently used sampling systems, such as the MIL-STD-105E, utilize the Binomial or the Poisson equations as an estimate of the Hypergeometric when performing inspection by attributes. However, this is primarily because of the difficulty in calculation of the factorials required by the Hypergeometric. Sampling plans based on the Binomial or Poisson equations will result in the maximum sample size possible with the Hypergeometric. The difference in the sample sizes between the Poisson or Binomial and the Hypergeometric can be significant. For example, a lot size of 400 devices with an error rate of 1.0% and a confidence of 99% would require a sample size of 400 (all units would need to be inspected) for the Binomial sampling plan and only 273 for a Hypergeometric sampling plan. The Hypergeometric results in a savings of 127 units, a significant reduction in the required sample size. HYPERSAMP is a demonstration program and is limited to sampling plans with zero defectives in the sample (acceptance number of zero). Since it is only a demonstration program, the sample size determination is limited to sample sizes of 1500 or less. The Hypergeometric Attribute Sampling System demonstration code is a spreadsheet program written for IBM PC compatible computers running DOS and Lotus 1-2-3 or Quattro Pro. This program is distributed on a 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette, and the program price includes documentation. This statistical method was developed in 1992.

Gender-Specific Determinants and Patterns of Online Health Information Seeking: Results From a Representative German Health Survey.

PubMed

Baumann, Eva; Czerwinski, Fabian; Reifegerste, Doreen

2017-04-04

Online health information-seeking behavior (OHISB) is currently a widespread and common behavior that has been described as an important prerequisite of empowerment and health literacy. Although demographic factors such as socioeconomic status (SES), age, and gender have been identified as important determinants of OHISB, research is limited regarding the gender-specific motivational determinants of OHISB and differences between women and men in the use of online resources for health information purposes. The aim of this study was to identify gender-specific determinants and patterns of OHISB by analyzing data from a representative German sample of adults (N=1728) with special attention to access and frequency of use as well as topics and sources of OHISB. We employed a 2-step analysis, that is, after exploring differences between users and nonusers of online health information using logistic regression models, we highlighted gender-specific determinants of the frequency of OHISB by applying zero-truncated negative binomial models. Age (odds ratio, OR for females=0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99) and degree of satisfaction with one's general practitioner (GP) (OR for males=0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.92) were gender-specific determinants of access to OHISB. Regarding the frequency of OHISB, daily Internet use (incidence rate ratio, IRR=1.67, 95% CI 1.19-2.33) and a strong interest in health topics (IRR=1.45, 95% CI 1.19-1.77) were revealed to be more important predictors than SES (IRR for high SES=1.25, 95% CI 0.91-1.73). Users indicate that the Internet seems to be capable of providing a valuable source of informational support and patient empowerment. Increasing the potential value of the Internet as a source for health literacy and patient empowerment requires need-oriented and gender-specific health communication efforts, media, and information strategies. ©Eva Baumann, Fabian Czerwinski, Doreen Reifegerste. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 04.04.2017.

A bibliometric analysis of childhood immunization research productivity in Africa since the onset of the Expanded Program on Immunization in 1974

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The implementation of strategic immunization plans whose development is informed by available locally-relevant research evidence should improve immunization coverage and prevent disease, disability and death in Africa. In general, health research helps to answer questions, generate the evidence required to guide policy and identify new tools. However, factors that influence the publication of immunization research in Africa are not known. We, therefore, undertook this study to fill this research gap by providing insights into factors associated with childhood immunization research productivity on the continent. We postulated that research productivity influences immunization coverage. Methods We conducted a bibliometric analysis of childhood immunization research output from Africa, using research articles indexed in PubMed as a surrogate for total research productivity. We used zero-truncated negative binomial regression models to explore the factors associated with research productivity. Results We identified 1,641 articles on childhood immunization indexed in PubMed between 1974 and 2010 with authors from Africa, which represent only 8.9% of the global output. Five countries (South Africa, Nigeria, The Gambia, Egypt and Kenya) contributed 48% of the articles. After controlling for population and gross domestic product, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Sao Tome and Principe were the most productive countries. In univariable analyses, the country's gross domestic product, total health expenditure, private health expenditure, and research and development expenditure had a significant positive association with increased research productivity. Immunization coverage, adult literacy rate, human development index and physician density had no significant association. In the multivarable model, only private health expenditure maintained significant statistical association with the number of immunization articles. Conclusions Immunization research productivity in Africa is highly skewed, with private health expenditure having a significant positive association. However, the current contribution of authors from Africa to global childhood immunization research output is minimal. The lack of association between research productivity and immunization coverage may be an indication of lack of interactive communication between health decision-makers, program managers and researchers; to ensure that immunization policies and plans are always informed by the best available evidence. PMID:23497441

People with multiple unhealthy lifestyles are less likely to consult primary healthcare

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Behavioural interventions are often implemented within primary healthcare settings to prevent type 2 diabetes and other lifestyle-related diseases. Although smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and poor diet are associated with poorer health that may lead a person to consult a general practitioner (GP), previous work has shown that unhealthy lifestyles cluster among low socioeconomic groups who are less likely to seek primary healthcare. Therefore, it is uncertain whether behavioural interventions in primary healthcare are reaching those in most need. This study investigated patterns of GP consultations in relation to the clustering of unhealthy lifestyles among a large sample of adults aged 45 years and older in New South Wales, Australia. Methods A total of 267,153 adults participated in the 45 and Up Study between 2006 and 2009, comprising 10% of the equivalent demographic in the state of New South Wales, Australia (response rate: 18%). All consultations with GPs within 6 months prior and post survey completion were identified (with many respondents attending multiple GPs) via linkage to Medicare Australia data. An index of unhealthy lifestyles was constructed from self-report data on adherence to published guidelines on smoking, alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Logistic and zero-truncated negative binomial regression models were used to analyse: (i) whether or not a person had at least one GP consultation within the study period; (ii) the count of GP consultations attended by each participant who visited a GP at least once. Analyses were adjusted for measures of health status, socioeconomic circumstances and other confounders. Results After adjustment, participants scoring 7 unhealthy lifestyles were 24% more likely than persons scoring 0 unhealthy lifestyles not to have attended any GP consultation in the 12-month time period. Among those who attended at least one consultation, those with 7 unhealthy lifestyles reported 7% fewer consultations than persons with 0 unhealthy lifestyles. No effect modification was observed. Conclusion To optimise the prevention of lifestyle-related diseases, interventions for positive behavioural change need to incorporate non-primary healthcare settings in order to reach people with multiple unhealthy lifestyles. PMID:24965672

People with multiple unhealthy lifestyles are less likely to consult primary healthcare.

PubMed

Feng, Xiaoqi; Girosi, Federico; McRae, Ian S

2014-06-26

Behavioural interventions are often implemented within primary healthcare settings to prevent type 2 diabetes and other lifestyle-related diseases. Although smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and poor diet are associated with poorer health that may lead a person to consult a general practitioner (GP), previous work has shown that unhealthy lifestyles cluster among low socioeconomic groups who are less likely to seek primary healthcare. Therefore, it is uncertain whether behavioural interventions in primary healthcare are reaching those in most need. This study investigated patterns of GP consultations in relation to the clustering of unhealthy lifestyles among a large sample of adults aged 45 years and older in New South Wales, Australia. A total of 267,153 adults participated in the 45 and Up Study between 2006 and 2009, comprising 10% of the equivalent demographic in the state of New South Wales, Australia (response rate: 18%). All consultations with GPs within 6 months prior and post survey completion were identified (with many respondents attending multiple GPs) via linkage to Medicare Australia data. An index of unhealthy lifestyles was constructed from self-report data on adherence to published guidelines on smoking, alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Logistic and zero-truncated negative binomial regression models were used to analyse: (i) whether or not a person had at least one GP consultation within the study period; (ii) the count of GP consultations attended by each participant who visited a GP at least once. Analyses were adjusted for measures of health status, socioeconomic circumstances and other confounders. After adjustment, participants scoring 7 unhealthy lifestyles were 24% more likely than persons scoring 0 unhealthy lifestyles not to have attended any GP consultation in the 12-month time period. Among those who attended at least one consultation, those with 7 unhealthy lifestyles reported 7% fewer consultations than persons with 0 unhealthy lifestyles. No effect modification was observed. To optimise the prevention of lifestyle-related diseases, interventions for positive behavioural change need to incorporate non-primary healthcare settings in order to reach people with multiple unhealthy lifestyles.

Neighborhood walkability and active travel (walking and cycling) in New York City.

PubMed

Freeman, Lance; Neckerman, Kathryn; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Quinn, James; Richards, Catherine; Bader, Michael D M; Lovasi, Gina; Jack, Darby; Weiss, Christopher; Konty, Kevin; Arno, Peter; Viola, Deborah; Kerker, Bonnie; Rundle, Andrew G

2013-08-01

Urban planners have suggested that built environment characteristics can support active travel (walking and cycling) and reduce sedentary behavior. This study assessed whether engagement in active travel is associated with neighborhood walkability measured for zip codes in New York City. Data were analyzed on engagement in active travel and the frequency of walking or biking ten blocks or more in the past month, from 8,064 respondents to the New York City 2003 Community Health Survey (CHS). A neighborhood walkability scale that measures: residential, intersection, and subway stop density; land use mix; and the ratio of retail building floor area to retail land area was calculated for each zip code. Data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression incorporating survey sample weights and adjusting for respondents' sociodemographic characteristics. Overall, 44 % of respondents reported no episodes of active travel and among those who reported any episode, the mean number was 43.2 episodes per month. Comparing the 75th to the 25th percentile of zip code walkability, the odds ratio for reporting zero episodes of active travel was 0.71 (95 % CI 0.61, 0.83) and the exponentiated beta coefficient for the count of episodes of active travel was 1.13 (95 % CI 1.06, 1.21). Associations between lower walkability and reporting zero episodes of active travel were significantly stronger for non-Hispanic Whites as compared to non-Hispanic Blacks and to Hispanics and for those living in higher income zip codes. The results suggest that neighborhood walkability is associated with higher engagement in active travel.

Health care usage among immigrants and native-born elderly populations in eleven European countries: results from SHARE

PubMed Central

Guillén, Montserrat; Crimmins, Eileen M.

2013-01-01

Differences in health care utilization of immigrants 50 years of age and older relative to the native-born populations in eleven European countries are investigated. Negative binomial and zero-inflated Poisson regression are used to examine differences between immigrants and native-borns in number of doctor visits, visits to general practitioners, and hospital stays using the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe database. In the pooled European sample and in some individual countries, older immigrants use from 13 to 20% more health services than native-borns after demographic characteristics are controlled. After controlling for the need for health care, differences between immigrants and native-borns in the use of physicians, but not hospitals, are reduced by about half. These are not changed much with the incorporation of indicators of socioeconomic status and extra insurance coverage. Higher country-level relative expenditures on health, paying physicians a fee-for-service, and physician density are associated with higher usage of physician services among immigrants. PMID:21660564

Effects of Cognition, Function, and Behavioral and Psychological Symptoms on Medicare Expenditures and Health Care Utilization for Persons With Dementia.

PubMed

Jutkowitz, Eric; Kane, Robert L; Dowd, Bryan; Gaugler, Joseph E; MacLehose, Richard F; Kuntz, Karen M

2017-06-01

Clinical features of dementia (cognition, function, and behavioral/psychological symptoms [BPSD]) may differentially affect Medicare expenditures/health care utilization. We linked cross-sectional data from the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study to Medicare data to evaluate the association between dementia clinical features among those with dementia and Medicare expenditures/health care utilization (n = 234). Cognition was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Function was evaluated as the number of functional limitations (0-10). BPSD was evaluated as the number of symptoms (0-12). Expenditures were estimated with a generalized linear model (log-link and gamma distribution). Number of hospitalizations, institutional outpatient visits, and physician visits were estimated with a negative binomial regression. Medicare covered skilled nursing days were estimated with a zero-inflated negative binomial model. Cognition and BPSD were not associated with expenditures. Among individuals with less than seven functional limitations, one additional limitation was associated with $123 (95% confidence interval: $19-$227) additional monthly Medicare spending. Better cognition and poorer function were associated with more hospitalizations among those with an MMSE less than three and less than six functional limitations, respectively. BPSD had no effect on hospitalizations. Poorer function and fewer BPSD were associated with more skilled nursing among individuals with one to seven functional limitations and more than four symptoms, respectively. Cognition had no effect on skilled nursing care. No clinical feature was associated with institutional outpatient care. Of individuals with an MMSE less than 15, poorer cognition was associated with fewer physician visits. Among those with more than six functional limitations, poorer function was associated with fewer physician visits. Poorer function, not cognition or BPSD, was associated with higher Medicare expenditures. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Distribution pattern of phthirapterans infesting certain common Indian birds.

PubMed

Saxena, A K; Kumar, Sandeep; Gupta, Nidhi; Mitra, J D; Ali, S A; Srivastava, Roshni

2007-08-01

The prevalence and frequency distribution patterns of 10 phthirapteran species infesting house sparrows, Indian parakeets, common mynas, and white breasted kingfishers were recorded in the district of Rampur, India, during 2004-05. The sample mean abundances, mean intensities, range of infestations, variance to mean ratios, values of the exponent of the negative binomial distribution, and the indices of discrepancy were also computed. Frequency distribution patterns of all phthirapteran species were skewed, but the observed frequencies did not correspond to the negative binomial distribution. Thus, adult-nymph ratios varied in different species from 1:0.53 to 1:1.25. Sex ratios of different phthirapteran species ranged from 1:1.10 to 1:1.65 and were female biased.

Sample size determination for a three-arm equivalence trial of Poisson and negative binomial responses.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Wei; Tsong, Yi; Zhao, Zhigen

2017-01-01

Assessing equivalence or similarity has drawn much attention recently as many drug products have lost or will lose their patents in the next few years, especially certain best-selling biologics. To claim equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment when assay sensitivity is well established from historical data, one has to demonstrate both superiority of the test treatment over placebo and equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment. Thus, there is urgency for practitioners to derive a practical way to calculate sample size for a three-arm equivalence trial. The primary endpoints of a clinical trial may not always be continuous, but may be discrete. In this paper, the authors derive power function and discuss sample size requirement for a three-arm equivalence trial with Poisson and negative binomial clinical endpoints. In addition, the authors examine the effect of the dispersion parameter on the power and the sample size by varying its coefficient from small to large. In extensive numerical studies, the authors demonstrate that required sample size heavily depends on the dispersion parameter. Therefore, misusing a Poisson model for negative binomial data may easily lose power up to 20%, depending on the value of the dispersion parameter.

The analysis of incontinence episodes and other count data in patients with overactive bladder by Poisson and negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Martina, R; Kay, R; van Maanen, R; Ridder, A

2015-01-01

Clinical studies in overactive bladder have traditionally used analysis of covariance or nonparametric methods to analyse the number of incontinence episodes and other count data. It is known that if the underlying distributional assumptions of a particular parametric method do not hold, an alternative parametric method may be more efficient than a nonparametric one, which makes no assumptions regarding the underlying distribution of the data. Therefore, there are advantages in using methods based on the Poisson distribution or extensions of that method, which incorporate specific features that provide a modelling framework for count data. One challenge with count data is overdispersion, but methods are available that can account for this through the introduction of random effect terms in the modelling, and it is this modelling framework that leads to the negative binomial distribution. These models can also provide clinicians with a clearer and more appropriate interpretation of treatment effects in terms of rate ratios. In this paper, the previously used parametric and non-parametric approaches are contrasted with those based on Poisson regression and various extensions in trials evaluating solifenacin and mirabegron in patients with overactive bladder. In these applications, negative binomial models are seen to fit the data well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Protection from annual flooding is correlated with increased cholera prevalence in Bangladesh: a zero-inflated regression analysis.

PubMed

Carrel, Margaret; Voss, Paul; Streatfield, Peter K; Yunus, Mohammad; Emch, Michael

2010-03-22

Alteration of natural or historical aquatic flows can have unintended consequences for regions where waterborne diseases are endemic and where the epidemiologic implications of such change are poorly understood. The implementation of flood protection measures for a portion of an intensely monitored population in Matlab, Bangladesh, allows us to examine whether cholera outcomes respond positively or negatively to measures designed to control river flooding. Using a zero inflated negative binomial model, we examine how selected covariates can simultaneously account for household clusters reporting no cholera from those with positive counts as well as distinguishing residential areas with low counts from areas with high cholera counts. Our goal is to examine how residence within or outside a flood protected area interacts with the probability of cholera presence and the effect of flood protection on the magnitude of cholera prevalence. In Matlab, living in a household that is protected from annual monsoon flooding appears to have no significant effect on whether the household experiences cholera, net of other covariates. However, counter-intuitively, among households where cholera is reported, living within the flood protected region significantly increases the number of cholera cases. The construction of dams or other water impoundment strategies for economic or social motives can have profound and unanticipated consequences for waterborne disease. Our results indicate that the construction of a flood control structure in rural Bangladesh is correlated with an increase in cholera cases for residents protected from annual monsoon flooding. Such a finding requires attention from both the health community and from governments and non-governmental organizations involved in ongoing water management schemes.

A methodology to design heuristics for model selection based on the characteristics of data: Application to investigate when the Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB).

PubMed

Shirazi, Mohammadali; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

2017-10-01

Safety analysts usually use post-modeling methods, such as the Goodness-of-Fit statistics or the Likelihood Ratio Test, to decide between two or more competitive distributions or models. Such metrics require all competitive distributions to be fitted to the data before any comparisons can be accomplished. Given the continuous growth in introducing new statistical distributions, choosing the best one using such post-modeling methods is not a trivial task, in addition to all theoretical or numerical issues the analyst may face during the analysis. Furthermore, and most importantly, these measures or tests do not provide any intuitions into why a specific distribution (or model) is preferred over another (Goodness-of-Logic). This paper ponders into these issues by proposing a methodology to design heuristics for Model Selection based on the characteristics of data, in terms of descriptive summary statistics, before fitting the models. The proposed methodology employs two analytic tools: (1) Monte-Carlo Simulations and (2) Machine Learning Classifiers, to design easy heuristics to predict the label of the 'most-likely-true' distribution for analyzing data. The proposed methodology was applied to investigate when the recently introduced Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) distribution is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Heuristics were designed to select the 'most-likely-true' distribution between these two distributions, given a set of prescribed summary statistics of data. The proposed heuristics were successfully compared against classical tests for several real or observed datasets. Not only they are easy to use and do not need any post-modeling inputs, but also, using these heuristics, the analyst can attain useful information about why the NB-L is preferred over the NB - or vice versa- when modeling data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Binomial test statistics using Psi functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o

2007-01-01

For the negative binomial model (probability generating function (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}) a logarithmic derivative is the Psi function difference {psi}(k + x) - {psi}(k); this and its derivatives lead to a test statistic to decide on the validity of a specified model. The test statistic uses a data base so there exists a comparison available between theory and application. Note that the test function is not dominated by outliers. Applications to (i) Fisher's tick data, (ii) accidents data, (iii) Weldon's dice data are included.

Spatiotemporal and random parameter panel data models of traffic crash fatalities in Vietnam.

PubMed

Truong, Long T; Kieu, Le-Minh; Vu, Tuan A

2016-09-01

This paper investigates factors associated with traffic crash fatalities in 63 provinces of Vietnam during the period from 2012 to 2014. Random effect negative binomial (RENB) and random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) panel data models are adopted to consider spatial heterogeneity across provinces. In addition, a spatiotemporal model with conditional autoregressive priors (ST-CAR) is utilised to account for spatiotemporal autocorrelation in the data. The statistical comparison indicates the ST-CAR model outperforms the RENB and RPNB models. Estimation results provide several significant findings. For example, traffic crash fatalities tend to be higher in provinces with greater numbers of level crossings. Passenger distance travelled and road lengths are also positively associated with fatalities. However, hospital densities are negatively associated with fatalities. The safety impact of the national highway 1A, the main transport corridor of the country, is also highlighted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ascaris and hookworm transmission in preschool children from rural Panama: role of yard environment, soil eggs/larvae and hygiene and play behaviours.

PubMed

Krause, Rachel J; Koski, Kristine G; Pons, Emérita; Sandoval, Nidia; Sinisterra, Odalis; Scott, Marilyn E

2015-10-01

This study explored whether the yard environment and child hygiene and play behaviours were associated with presence and intensity of Ascaris and hookworm in preschool children and with eggs and larvae in soil. Data were collected using questionnaires, a visual survey of the yard, soil samples and fecal samples collected at baseline and following re-infection. The presence of eggs/larvae in soil was associated negatively with water storage (eggs) but positively with dogs (eggs) and distance from home to latrine (larvae). Baseline and re-infection prevalences were: hookworm (28.0%, 3.4%); Ascaris (16.9%, 9.5%); Trichuris (0.9%, 0.7%). Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed a higher baseline hookworm infection if yards had eggs or larvae, more vegetation or garbage, and if the child played with soil. Baseline Ascaris was associated with dirt floor, dogs, exposed soil in yard, open defecation and with less time playing outdoors, whereas Ascaris re-infection was associated with water storage, vegetation cover and garbage near the home and not playing with animals. Our results show complex interactions between infection, the yard environment and child behaviours, and indicate that transmission would be reduced if latrines were closer to the home, and if open defecation and water spillage were reduced.

Antibiotic Resistances in Livestock: A Comparative Approach to Identify an Appropriate Regression Model for Count Data

PubMed Central

Hüls, Anke; Frömke, Cornelia; Ickstadt, Katja; Hille, Katja; Hering, Johanna; von Münchhausen, Christiane; Hartmann, Maria; Kreienbrock, Lothar

2017-01-01

Antimicrobial resistance in livestock is a matter of general concern. To develop hygiene measures and methods for resistance prevention and control, epidemiological studies on a population level are needed to detect factors associated with antimicrobial resistance in livestock holdings. In general, regression models are used to describe these relationships between environmental factors and resistance outcome. Besides the study design, the correlation structures of the different outcomes of antibiotic resistance and structural zero measurements on the resistance outcome as well as on the exposure side are challenges for the epidemiological model building process. The use of appropriate regression models that acknowledge these complexities is essential to assure valid epidemiological interpretations. The aims of this paper are (i) to explain the model building process comparing several competing models for count data (negative binomial model, quasi-Poisson model, zero-inflated model, and hurdle model) and (ii) to compare these models using data from a cross-sectional study on antibiotic resistance in animal husbandry. These goals are essential to evaluate which model is most suitable to identify potential prevention measures. The dataset used as an example in our analyses was generated initially to study the prevalence and associated factors for the appearance of cefotaxime-resistant Escherichia coli in 48 German fattening pig farms. For each farm, the outcome was the count of samples with resistant bacteria. There was almost no overdispersion and only moderate evidence of excess zeros in the data. Our analyses show that it is essential to evaluate regression models in studies analyzing the relationship between environmental factors and antibiotic resistances in livestock. After model comparison based on evaluation of model predictions, Akaike information criterion, and Pearson residuals, here the hurdle model was judged to be the most appropriate model. PMID:28620609

A Methodology for Quantifying Certain Design Requirements During the Design Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Timothy; Rhodes, Russel

2005-01-01

A methodology for developing and balancing quantitative design requirements for safety, reliability, and maintainability has been proposed. Conceived as the basis of a more rational approach to the design of spacecraft, the methodology would also be applicable to the design of automobiles, washing machines, television receivers, or almost any other commercial product. Heretofore, it has been common practice to start by determining the requirements for reliability of elements of a spacecraft or other system to ensure a given design life for the system. Next, safety requirements are determined by assessing the total reliability of the system and adding redundant components and subsystems necessary to attain safety goals. As thus described, common practice leaves the maintainability burden to fall to chance; therefore, there is no control of recurring costs or of the responsiveness of the system. The means that have been used in assessing maintainability have been oriented toward determining the logistical sparing of components so that the components are available when needed. The process established for developing and balancing quantitative requirements for safety (S), reliability (R), and maintainability (M) derives and integrates NASA s top-level safety requirements and the controls needed to obtain program key objectives for safety and recurring cost (see figure). Being quantitative, the process conveniently uses common mathematical models. Even though the process is shown as being worked from the top down, it can also be worked from the bottom up. This process uses three math models: (1) the binomial distribution (greaterthan- or-equal-to case), (2) reliability for a series system, and (3) the Poisson distribution (less-than-or-equal-to case). The zero-fail case for the binomial distribution approximates the commonly known exponential distribution or "constant failure rate" distribution. Either model can be used. The binomial distribution was selected for modeling flexibility because it conveniently addresses both the zero-fail and failure cases. The failure case is typically used for unmanned spacecraft as with missiles.

A comparison of different ways of including baseline counts in negative binomial models for data from falls prevention trials.

PubMed

Zheng, Han; Kimber, Alan; Goodwin, Victoria A; Pickering, Ruth M

2018-01-01

A common design for a falls prevention trial is to assess falling at baseline, randomize participants into an intervention or control group, and ask them to record the number of falls they experience during a follow-up period of time. This paper addresses how best to include the baseline count in the analysis of the follow-up count of falls in negative binomial (NB) regression. We examine the performance of various approaches in simulated datasets where both counts are generated from a mixed Poisson distribution with shared random subject effect. Including the baseline count after log-transformation as a regressor in NB regression (NB-logged) or as an offset (NB-offset) resulted in greater power than including the untransformed baseline count (NB-unlogged). Cook and Wei's conditional negative binomial (CNB) model replicates the underlying process generating the data. In our motivating dataset, a statistically significant intervention effect resulted from the NB-logged, NB-offset, and CNB models, but not from NB-unlogged, and large, outlying baseline counts were overly influential in NB-unlogged but not in NB-logged. We conclude that there is little to lose by including the log-transformed baseline count in standard NB regression compared to CNB for moderate to larger sized datasets. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Golay Complementary Waveforms in Reed–Müller Sequences for Radar Detection of Nonzero Doppler Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Xuezhi; Huang, Xiaotao; Suvorova, Sofia; Moran, Bill

2018-01-01

Golay complementary waveforms can, in theory, yield radar returns of high range resolution with essentially zero sidelobes. In practice, when deployed conventionally, while high signal-to-noise ratios can be achieved for static target detection, significant range sidelobes are generated by target returns of nonzero Doppler causing unreliable detection. We consider signal processing techniques using Golay complementary waveforms to improve radar detection performance in scenarios involving multiple nonzero Doppler targets. A signal processing procedure based on an existing, so called, Binomial Design algorithm that alters the transmission order of Golay complementary waveforms and weights the returns is proposed in an attempt to achieve an enhanced illumination performance. The procedure applies one of three proposed waveform transmission ordering algorithms, followed by a pointwise nonlinear processor combining the outputs of the Binomial Design algorithm and one of the ordering algorithms. The computational complexity of the Binomial Design algorithm and the three ordering algorithms are compared, and a statistical analysis of the performance of the pointwise nonlinear processing is given. Estimation of the areas in the Delay–Doppler map occupied by significant range sidelobes for given targets are also discussed. Numerical simulations for the comparison of the performances of the Binomial Design algorithm and the three ordering algorithms are presented for both fixed and randomized target locations. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed signal processing procedure has a better detection performance in terms of lower sidelobes and higher Doppler resolution in the presence of multiple nonzero Doppler targets compared to existing methods. PMID:29324708

Hurdle models for multilevel zero-inflated data via h-likelihood.

PubMed

Molas, Marek; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2010-12-30

Count data often exhibit overdispersion. One type of overdispersion arises when there is an excess of zeros in comparison with the standard Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated Poisson and hurdle models have been proposed to perform a valid likelihood-based analysis to account for the surplus of zeros. Further, data often arise in clustered, longitudinal or multiple-membership settings. The proper analysis needs to reflect the design of a study. Typically random effects are used to account for dependencies in the data. We examine the h-likelihood estimation and inference framework for hurdle models with random effects for complex designs. We extend the h-likelihood procedures to fit hurdle models, thereby extending h-likelihood to truncated distributions. Two applications of the methodology are presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Use of Internet viral marketing to promote smoke-free lifestyles among Chinese adolescents.

PubMed

Ip, Patrick; Lam, Tai-Hing; Chan, Sophia Siu-Chee; Ho, Frederick Ka-Wing; Lo, Lewis A; Chiu, Ivy Wing-Sze; Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Chow, Chun-Bong

2014-01-01

Youth smoking is a global public health concern. Health educators are increasingly using Internet-based technologies, but the effectiveness of Internet viral marketing in promoting health remains uncertain. This prospective pilot study assessed the efficacy of an online game-based viral marketing campaign in promoting a smoke-free attitude among Chinese adolescents. One hundred and twenty-one Hong Kong Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 were invited to participate in an online multiple-choice quiz game competition designed to deliver tobacco-related health information. Participants were encouraged to refer others to join. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to explore the factors contributing to the referral process. Latent transition analysis utilising a pre- and post-game survey was used to detect attitudinal changes toward smoking. The number of participants increased almost eightfold from 121 to 928 (34.6% current or ex-smokers) during the 22-day campaign. Participants exhibited significant attitudinal change, with 73% holding negative attitudes toward smoking after the campaign compared to 57% before it. The transition probabilities from positive to negative and neutral to negative attitudes were 0.52 and 0.48, respectively. It was also found that attempting every 20 quiz questions was associated with lower perceived smoking decision in future (OR = 0.95, p-value <0.01). Our online game-based viral marketing programme was effective in reaching a large number of smoking and non-smoking participants and changing their attitudes toward smoking. It constitutes a promising practical and cost-effective model for engaging young smokers and promulgating smoking-related health information among Chinese adolescents.

Enhanced Acoustic Black Hole effect in beams with a modified thickness profile and extended platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Liling; Cheng, Li

2017-03-01

The phenomenon of Acoustics Black Hole (ABH) benefits from the bending wave propagating properties inside a thin-walled structure with power-law thickness variation to achieve zero reflection when the structural thickness approaches zero in the ideal scenario. However, manufacturing an ideally tailored power-law profile of a structure with embedded ABH feature can hardly be achieved in practice. Past research showed that the inevitable truncation at the wedge tip of the structure can significantly weaken the expected ABH effect by creating wave reflections. On the premise of the minimum achievable truncation thickness by the current manufacturing technology, exploring ways to ensure and achieve better ABH effect becomes important. In this paper, we investigate this issue by using a previously developed wavelet-decomposed semi-analytical model on an Euler-Bernoulli beam with a modified power-law profile and an extended platform of constant thickness. Through comparisons with the conventional ABH profile in terms of system loss factor and energy distribution, numerical results show that the modified thickness profile brings about a systematic increase in the ABH effect at mid-to-high frequencies, especially when the truncation thickness is small and the profile parameter m is large. The use of an extended platform further increases the ABH effect to broader the frequency band whilst providing rooms for catering particular low frequency applications.

An integrated model for detecting significant chromatin interactions from high-resolution Hi-C data

PubMed Central

Carty, Mark; Zamparo, Lee; Sahin, Merve; González, Alvaro; Pelossof, Raphael; Elemento, Olivier; Leslie, Christina S.

2017-01-01

Here we present HiC-DC, a principled method to estimate the statistical significance (P values) of chromatin interactions from Hi-C experiments. HiC-DC uses hurdle negative binomial regression account for systematic sources of variation in Hi-C read counts—for example, distance-dependent random polymer ligation and GC content and mappability bias—and model zero inflation and overdispersion. Applied to high-resolution Hi-C data in a lymphoblastoid cell line, HiC-DC detects significant interactions at the sub-topologically associating domain level, identifying potential structural and regulatory interactions supported by CTCF binding sites, DNase accessibility, and/or active histone marks. CTCF-associated interactions are most strongly enriched in the middle genomic distance range (∼700 kb–1.5 Mb), while interactions involving actively marked DNase accessible elements are enriched both at short (<500 kb) and longer (>1.5 Mb) genomic distances. There is a striking enrichment of longer-range interactions connecting replication-dependent histone genes on chromosome 6, potentially representing the chromatin architecture at the histone locus body. PMID:28513628

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; Brody, Samuel D; Peacock, Walter Gillis; Vedlitz, Arnold; Grover, Himanshu

2008-12-01

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.

Curiosity Killed the Cocktail? Curiosity, Sensation Seeking, and Alcohol-related Problems in College Women

PubMed Central

Lindgren, Kristen P.; Mullins, Peter M.; Neighbors, Clayton; Blayney, Jessica A.

2010-01-01

Curiosity, composed of two factors: exploration and absorption, has been previously associated with life satisfaction, life meaningfulness, and enhanced positive affect. It also shares some overlap with sensation seeking, which has been linked to alcohol use and other addictive behaviors. The present research explored the association between curiosity and college women’s problematic drinking in the context of sensation seeking. Participants (79 women) completed questionnaires measuring curiosity, sensation seeking, alcohol consumption, and consequences related to alcohol consumption. A zero-inflated negative binomial model indicated that curiosity and sensation seeking accounted for unique variance in alcohol-related problems after controlling for drinking. The curiosity factors had opposing relationships to alcohol-related problems: higher scores on absorption were associated with more alcohol related problems whereas higher scores on exploration were associated with fewer alcohol related problems. Should findings be replicated, the curiosity factors may represent additional prevention and intervention targets. Future directions for research about curiosity and drinking and for the inclusion of positive psychology constructs in addictive behaviors research are discussed. PMID:20080358

Reduction of variable-truncation artifacts from beam occlusion during in situ x-ray tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borg, Leise; Jørgensen, Jakob S.; Frikel, Jürgen; Sporring, Jon

2017-12-01

Many in situ x-ray tomography studies require experimental rigs which may partially occlude the beam and cause parts of the projection data to be missing. In a study of fluid flow in porous chalk using a percolation cell with four metal bars drastic streak artifacts arise in the filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction at certain orientations. Projections with non-trivial variable truncation caused by the metal bars are the source of these variable-truncation artifacts. To understand the artifacts a mathematical model of variable-truncation data as a function of metal bar radius and distance to sample is derived and verified numerically and with experimental data. The model accurately describes the arising variable-truncation artifacts across simulated variations of the experimental setup. Three variable-truncation artifact-reduction methods are proposed, all aimed at addressing sinogram discontinuities that are shown to be the source of the streaks. The ‘reduction to limited angle’ (RLA) method simply keeps only non-truncated projections; the ‘detector-directed smoothing’ (DDS) method smooths the discontinuities; while the ‘reflexive boundary condition’ (RBC) method enforces a zero derivative at the discontinuities. Experimental results using both simulated and real data show that the proposed methods effectively reduce variable-truncation artifacts. The RBC method is found to provide the best artifact reduction and preservation of image features using both visual and quantitative assessment. The analysis and artifact-reduction methods are designed in context of FBP reconstruction motivated by computational efficiency practical for large, real synchrotron data. While a specific variable-truncation case is considered, the proposed methods can be applied to general data cut-offs arising in different in situ x-ray tomography experiments.

Pricing American Asian options with higher moments in the underlying distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Keng-Hsin; Wang, Kehluh; Hsu, Ming-Feng

2009-01-01

We develop a modified Edgeworth binomial model with higher moment consideration for pricing American Asian options. With lognormal underlying distribution for benchmark comparison, our algorithm is as precise as that of Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] if the number of the time steps increases. If the underlying distribution displays negative skewness and leptokurtosis as often observed for stock index returns, our estimates can work better than those in Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] and are very similar to the benchmarks in Hull and White [J. Hull, A. White, Efficient procedures for valuing European and American path-dependent options, J. Derivatives 1 (Fall) (1993) 21-31]. The numerical analysis shows that our modified Edgeworth binomial model can value American Asian options with greater accuracy and speed given higher moments in their underlying distribution.

Development of enhanced pavement deterioration curves.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

This report describes the research performed by the Center for Sustainable Transportation Infrastructure (CSTI) at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to develop a pavement condition prediction model, using (negative binomial) regressio...

The roles played by highly truncated splice variants of G protein-coupled receptors

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Alternative splicing of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) genes greatly increases the total number of receptor isoforms which may be expressed in a cell-dependent and time-dependent manner. This increased diversity of cell signaling options caused by the generation of splice variants is further enhanced by receptor dimerization. When alternative splicing generates highly truncated GPCRs with less than seven transmembrane (TM) domains, the predominant effect in vitro is that of a dominant-negative mutation associated with the retention of the wild-type receptor in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). For constitutively active (agonist-independent) GPCRs, their attenuated expression on the cell surface, and consequent decreased basal activity due to the dominant-negative effect of truncated splice variants, has pathological consequences. Truncated splice variants may conversely offer protection from disease when expression of co-receptors for binding of infectious agents to cells is attenuated due to ER retention of the wild-type co-receptor. In this review, we will see that GPCRs retained in the ER can still be functionally active but also that highly truncated GPCRs may also be functionally active. Although rare, some truncated splice variants still bind ligand and activate cell signaling responses. More importantly, by forming heterodimers with full-length GPCRs, some truncated splice variants also provide opportunities to generate receptor complexes with unique pharmacological properties. So, instead of assuming that highly truncated GPCRs are associated with faulty transcription processes, it is time to reassess their potential benefit to the host organism. PMID:22938630

Indicators of Terrorism Vulnerability in Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

the terror threat and vulnerabilities across Africa. Key words: Terrorism, Africa, Negative Binomial Regression, Classification Tree iv I would like...31 Metrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Log -likelihood...70 viii Page 5.3 Classification Tree Description

Identifying cholera "hotspots" in Uganda: An analysis of cholera surveillance data from 2011 to 2016

PubMed Central

Bwire, Godfrey; Sack, David A.; Nakinsige, Anne; Naigaga, Martha; Debes, Amanda K.; Ngwa, Moise C.; Brooks, W. Abdullah; Garimoi Orach, Christopher

2017-01-01

Background Despite advance in science and technology for prevention, detection and treatment of cholera, this infectious disease remains a major public health problem in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive. The aim of this study was to identify cholera hotspots in Uganda to guide the development of a roadmap for prevention, control and elimination of cholera in the country. Methodology/Principle findings We obtained district level confirmed cholera outbreak data from 2011 to 2016 from the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Population and rainfall data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and water, sanitation and hygiene data from the Ministry of Water and Environment. A spatial scan test was performed to identify the significantly high risk clusters. Cholera hotspots were defined as districts whose center fell within a significantly high risk cluster or where a significantly high risk cluster was completely superimposed onto a district. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. In total 11,030 cases of cholera were reported during the 6-year period. 37(33%) of 112 districts reported cholera outbreaks in one of the six years, and 20 (18%) districts experienced cholera at least twice in those years. We identified 22 districts as high risk for cholera, of which 13 were near a border of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while 9 districts were near a border of Kenya. The relative risk of having cholera inside the high-risk districts (hotspots) were 2 to 22 times higher than elsewhere in the country. In total, 7 million people were within cholera hotspots. The negative binomial component of the ZINB model shows people living near a lake or the Nile river were at increased risk for cholera (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97 to 0.99, p < .01); people living near the border of DRC/Kenya or higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts were increased risk for cholera in a district (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00, p = .02 and IRR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03, p < .01, respectively). The zero inflated component of the ZINB model yielded shorter distance to Kenya or DRC border, higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts, and higher annual rainfall in the district were associated with the risk of having cholera in the district. Conclusions/significance The study identified cholera hotspots during the period 2011–2016. The people located near the international borders, internationally shared lakes and river Nile were at higher risk for cholera outbreaks than elsewhere in the country. Targeting cholera interventions to these locations could prevent and ultimately eliminate cholera in Uganda. PMID:29284003

Identifying cholera "hotspots" in Uganda: An analysis of cholera surveillance data from 2011 to 2016.

PubMed

Bwire, Godfrey; Ali, Mohammad; Sack, David A; Nakinsige, Anne; Naigaga, Martha; Debes, Amanda K; Ngwa, Moise C; Brooks, W Abdullah; Garimoi Orach, Christopher

2017-12-01

Despite advance in science and technology for prevention, detection and treatment of cholera, this infectious disease remains a major public health problem in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive. The aim of this study was to identify cholera hotspots in Uganda to guide the development of a roadmap for prevention, control and elimination of cholera in the country. We obtained district level confirmed cholera outbreak data from 2011 to 2016 from the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Population and rainfall data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and water, sanitation and hygiene data from the Ministry of Water and Environment. A spatial scan test was performed to identify the significantly high risk clusters. Cholera hotspots were defined as districts whose center fell within a significantly high risk cluster or where a significantly high risk cluster was completely superimposed onto a district. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. In total 11,030 cases of cholera were reported during the 6-year period. 37(33%) of 112 districts reported cholera outbreaks in one of the six years, and 20 (18%) districts experienced cholera at least twice in those years. We identified 22 districts as high risk for cholera, of which 13 were near a border of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while 9 districts were near a border of Kenya. The relative risk of having cholera inside the high-risk districts (hotspots) were 2 to 22 times higher than elsewhere in the country. In total, 7 million people were within cholera hotspots. The negative binomial component of the ZINB model shows people living near a lake or the Nile river were at increased risk for cholera (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97 to 0.99, p < .01); people living near the border of DRC/Kenya or higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts were increased risk for cholera in a district (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00, p = .02 and IRR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03, p < .01, respectively). The zero inflated component of the ZINB model yielded shorter distance to Kenya or DRC border, higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts, and higher annual rainfall in the district were associated with the risk of having cholera in the district. The study identified cholera hotspots during the period 2011-2016. The people located near the international borders, internationally shared lakes and river Nile were at higher risk for cholera outbreaks than elsewhere in the country. Targeting cholera interventions to these locations could prevent and ultimately eliminate cholera in Uganda.

Multifractal Cross Wavelet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Gao, Xing-Lu; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

Complex systems are composed of mutually interacting components and the output values of these components usually exhibit long-range cross-correlations. Using wavelet analysis, we propose a method of characterizing the joint multifractal nature of these long-range cross correlations, a method we call multifractal cross wavelet analysis (MFXWT). We assess the performance of the MFXWT method by performing extensive numerical experiments on the dual binomial measures with multifractal cross correlations and the bivariate fractional Brownian motions (bFBMs) with monofractal cross correlations. For binomial multifractal measures, we find the empirical joint multifractality of MFXWT to be in approximate agreement with the theoretical formula. For bFBMs, MFXWT may provide spurious multifractality because of the wide spanning range of the multifractal spectrum. We also apply the MFXWT method to stock market indices, and in pairs of index returns and volatilities we find an intriguing joint multifractal behavior. The tests on surrogate series also reveal that the cross correlation behavior, particularly the cross correlation with zero lag, is the main origin of cross multifractality.

Comparing ELISA test-positive prevalence, risk factors and management recommendations for Johne's disease prevention between organic and conventional dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David

2015-11-01

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic, infectious disease in cattle. Between 2010 and 2013, a voluntary JD control program was successfully launched in Ontario, Canada, including a Risk Assessment and Management Plan (RAMP) and JD ELISA testing of the entire milking herd. Over the last decade, the organic dairy sector has been growing. However, organic farming regulations and philosophies may influence the risk for JD transmission on Ontario organic dairy farms. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate differences in JD ELISA test positive prevalence, risk factors for JD and recommendations for JD prevention between organic and conventional dairy herds in Ontario. RAMP results (i.e. RAMP scores and recommendations) and ELISA results were available for 2103 dairy herds, including 42 organic herds. If available, additional data on milk production, milk quality, and herd characteristics were gathered. Organic and conventional herds had a similar herd-level JD ELISA test-positive prevalence (26.2% and 27.2%, respectively). Organic herds (4.2%) had a higher within-herd JD ELISA test-positive prevalence compared to conventional herds (2.3%) if they had at least one JD test-positive animal on the farm. Organic farms had lower risk scores for biosecurity (9 points lower), and higher scores in the calving (7 points higher) and the calf-rearing management areas (4 points higher). After accounting for RAMP score, organic farms received fewer recommendations for the calving management area (Odds Ratio=0.41) and more recommendations in the adult cow management area (Odds Ratio=2.70). A zero-inflated negative binomial model was built with purchase of animals and the herd size included in the logistic portion of the model. Herd type (organic or conventional), colostrum and milk feeding practices, average bulk tank somatic cell count, and presence of non-Holstein breeds were included in the negative binomial portion of the model. Organic farms had a higher number of test positive animals (Count Ratio=2.02). Further research is necessary to investigate the apparent disconnect between risk factors and recommendations on organic dairy farms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Infrared Extinction Coefficients of Aerosolized Conductive Flake Powders and Flake Suspensions having a Zero-Truncated Poisson Size Distribution

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

report may not be cited for purposes of advertisement . This report has been approved for public release. Acknowledgments The authors would...visible wavelengths, the eye perceives an image as a result of color contrasts that consist of differences in luminance and chromaticity (hue and

Rounding Technique for High-Speed Digital Signal Processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wechsler, E. R.

1983-01-01

Arithmetic technique facilitates high-speed rounding of 2's complement binary data. Conventional rounding of 2's complement numbers presents problems in high-speed digital circuits. Proposed technique consists of truncating K + 1 bits then attaching bit in least significant position. Mean output error is zero, eliminating introducing voltage offset at input.

Breakdown of a 2D Heteroclinic Connection in the Hopf-Zero Singularity (I)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldomá, I.; Castejón, O.; Seara, T. M.

2018-04-01

In this paper we study a beyond all orders phenomenon which appears in the analytic unfoldings of the Hopf-zero singularity. It consists in the breakdown of a two-dimensional heteroclinic surface which exists in the truncated normal form of this singularity at any order. The results in this paper are twofold: on the one hand, we give results for generic unfoldings which lead to sharp exponentially small upper bounds of the difference between these manifolds. On the other hand, we provide asymptotic formulas for this difference by means of the Melnikov function for some non-generic unfoldings.

Functional analysis of Rift Valley fever virus NSs encoding a partial truncation.

PubMed

Head, Jennifer A; Kalveram, Birte; Ikegami, Tetsuro

2012-01-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), belongs to genus Phlebovirus of the family Bunyaviridae, causes high rates of abortion and fetal malformation in infected ruminants as well as causing neurological disorders, blindness, or lethal hemorrhagic fever in humans. RVFV is classified as a category A priority pathogen and a select agent in the U.S., and currently there are no therapeutics available for RVF patients. NSs protein, a major virulence factor of RVFV, inhibits host transcription including interferon (IFN)-β mRNA synthesis and promotes degradation of dsRNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR). NSs self-associates at the C-terminus 17 aa., while NSs at aa.210-230 binds to Sin3A-associated protein (SAP30) to inhibit the activation of IFN-β promoter. Thus, we hypothesize that NSs function(s) can be abolished by truncation of specific domains, and co-expression of nonfunctional NSs with intact NSs will result in the attenuation of NSs function by dominant-negative effect. Unexpectedly, we found that RVFV NSs truncated at aa. 6-30, 31-55, 56-80, 81-105, 106-130, 131-155, 156-180, 181-205, 206-230, 231-248 or 249-265 lack functions of IFN-β mRNA synthesis inhibition and degradation of PKR. Truncated NSs were less stable in infected cells, while nuclear localization was inhibited in NSs lacking either of aa.81-105, 106-130, 131-155, 156-180, 181-205, 206-230 or 231-248. Furthermore, none of truncated NSs had exhibited significant dominant-negative functions for NSs-mediated IFN-β suppression or PKR degradation upon co-expression in cells infected with RVFV. We also found that any of truncated NSs except for intact NSs does not interact with RVFV NSs even in the presence of intact C-terminus self-association domain. Our results suggest that conformational integrity of NSs is important for the stability, cellular localization and biological functions of RVFV NSs, and the co-expression of truncated NSs does not exhibit dominant-negative phenotype.

Application of a hurdle negative binomial count data model to demand for bass fishing in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Florkowski, Wojciech J

2007-06-01

This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a bass fishing trip taken in the southeastern United States using a hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a bass is estimated in the first stage and the fishing trip frequency is estimated in the second stage for individuals reporting bass fishing trips in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision to take a trip and the trip number. Calculated partial and total elasticities indicate a highly inelastic demand for the number of fishing trips as trip costs increase. However, the demand can be expected to increase if anglers experience a success measured by the number of caught fish or their size. Benefit estimates based on alternative estimation methods differ substantially, suggesting the need for testing each modeling approach applied in empirical studies.

Use of Internet Viral Marketing to Promote Smoke-Free Lifestyles among Chinese Adolescents

PubMed Central

Ip, Patrick; Lam, Tai-Hing; Chan, Sophia Siu-Chee; Ho, Frederick Ka-Wing; Lo, Lewis A.; Chiu, Ivy Wing-Sze; Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Chow, Chun-Bong

2014-01-01

Purpose Youth smoking is a global public health concern. Health educators are increasingly using Internet-based technologies, but the effectiveness of Internet viral marketing in promoting health remains uncertain. This prospective pilot study assessed the efficacy of an online game-based viral marketing campaign in promoting a smoke-free attitude among Chinese adolescents. Methods One hundred and twenty-one Hong Kong Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 were invited to participate in an online multiple-choice quiz game competition designed to deliver tobacco-related health information. Participants were encouraged to refer others to join. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to explore the factors contributing to the referral process. Latent transition analysis utilising a pre- and post-game survey was used to detect attitudinal changes toward smoking. Results The number of participants increased almost eightfold from 121 to 928 (34.6% current or ex-smokers) during the 22-day campaign. Participants exhibited significant attitudinal change, with 73% holding negative attitudes toward smoking after the campaign compared to 57% before it. The transition probabilities from positive to negative and neutral to negative attitudes were 0.52 and 0.48, respectively. It was also found that attempting every 20 quiz questions was associated with lower perceived smoking decision in future (OR  = 0.95, p-value <0.01). Conclusions Our online game-based viral marketing programme was effective in reaching a large number of smoking and non-smoking participants and changing their attitudes toward smoking. It constitutes a promising practical and cost-effective model for engaging young smokers and promulgating smoking-related health information among Chinese adolescents. PMID:24911010

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots.

PubMed

Washington, Simon; Haque, Md Mazharul; Oh, Jutaek; Lee, Dongmin

2014-05-01

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites-roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.-with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing crash frequency in freeway tunnels: A correlated random parameters approach.

PubMed

Hou, Qinzhong; Tarko, Andrew P; Meng, Xianghai

2018-02-01

The majority of past road safety studies focused on open road segments while only a few focused on tunnels. Moreover, the past tunnel studies produced some inconsistent results about the safety effects of the traffic patterns, the tunnel design, and the pavement conditions. The effects of these conditions therefore remain unknown, especially for freeway tunnels in China. The study presented in this paper investigated the safety effects of these various factors utilizing a four-year period (2009-2012) of data as well as three models: 1) a random effects negative binomial model (RENB), 2) an uncorrelated random parameters negative binomial model (URPNB), and 3) a correlated random parameters negative binomial model (CRPNB). Of these three, the results showed that the CRPNB model provided better goodness-of-fit and offered more insights into the factors that contribute to tunnel safety. The CRPNB was not only able to allocate the part of the otherwise unobserved heterogeneity to the individual model parameters but also was able to estimate the cross-correlations between these parameters. Furthermore, the study results showed that traffic volume, tunnel length, proportion of heavy trucks, curvature, and pavement rutting were associated with higher frequencies of traffic crashes, while the distance to the tunnel wall, distance to the adjacent tunnel, distress ratio, International Roughness Index (IRI), and friction coefficient were associated with lower crash frequencies. In addition, the effects of the heterogeneity of the proportion of heavy trucks, the curvature, the rutting depth, and the friction coefficient were identified and their inter-correlations were analyzed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the cure rate in Iranian breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Rahimzadeh, Mitra; Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Gohari, Mahmood Reza; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

2014-01-01

Although the Cox's proportional hazard model is the popular approach for survival analysis to investigate significant risk factors of cancer patient survival, it is not appropriate in the case of log-term disease free survival. Recently, cure rate models have been introduced to distinguish between clinical determinants of cure and variables associated with the time to event of interest. The aim of this study was to use a cure rate model to determine the clinical associated factors for cure rates of patients with breast cancer (BC). This prospective cohort study covered 305 patients with BC, admitted at Shahid Faiazbakhsh Hospital, Tehran, during 2006 to 2008 and followed until April 2012. Cases of patient death were confirmed by telephone contact. For data analysis, a non-mixed cure rate model with Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were employed. All analyses were carried out using a developed Macro in WinBugs. Deviance information criteria (DIC) were employed to find the best model. The overall 1-year, 3-year and 5-year relative survival rates were 97%, 89% and 74%. Metastasis and stage of BC were the significant factors, but age was significant only in negative binomial model. The DIC also showed that the negative binomial model had a better fit. This study indicated that, metastasis and stage of BC were identified as the clinical criteria for cure rates. There are limited studies on BC survival which employed these cure rate models to identify the clinical factors associated with cure. These models are better than Cox, in the case of long-term survival.

Evaluation of surrogate measures for pedestrian safety in various road and roadside environments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

This report presents an investigation of pedestrian conflicts and crash count models to learn which exposure measures and roadway or roadside characteristics significantly influence pedestrian safety at road crossings. Negative binomial models were e...

Expression of a truncated Hmga1b gene induces gigantism, lipomatosis and B-cell lymphomas in mice.

PubMed

Fedele, Monica; Visone, Rosa; De Martino, Ivana; Palmieri, Dario; Valentino, Teresa; Esposito, Francesco; Klein-Szanto, Andres; Arra, Claudio; Ciarmiello, Andrea; Croce, Carlo M; Fusco, Alfredo

2011-02-01

HMGA1 gene rearrangements have been frequently described in human lipomas. In vitro studies suggest that HMGA1 proteins have a negative role in the control of adipocyte cell growth, and that HMGA1 gene truncation acts in a dominant-negative fashion. Therefore, to define better the role of the HMGA1 alterations in the generation of human lipomas, we generated mice carrying an Hmga1b truncated (Hmga1b/T) gene. These mice develop a giant phenotype together with a drastic expansion of the retroperitoneal and subcutaneous white adipose tissue. We show that the activation of the E2F pathway likely accounts, at least in part, for this phenotype. Interestingly, the Hmga1b/T mice also develop B-cell lymphomas similar to that occurring in Hmga1-knockout mice, supporting a dominant-negative role of the Hmga1b/T mutant also in vivo. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Improved Extrapolation Scheme for Truncated CT Data Using 2D Fourier-Based Helgason-Ludwig Consistency Conditions.

PubMed

Xia, Yan; Berger, Martin; Bauer, Sebastian; Hu, Shiyang; Aichert, Andre; Maier, Andreas

2017-01-01

We improve data extrapolation for truncated computed tomography (CT) projections by using Helgason-Ludwig (HL) consistency conditions that mathematically describe the overlap of information between projections. First, we theoretically derive a 2D Fourier representation of the HL consistency conditions from their original formulation (projection moment theorem), for both parallel-beam and fan-beam imaging geometry. The derivation result indicates that there is a zero energy region forming a double-wedge shape in 2D Fourier domain. This observation is also referred to as the Fourier property of a sinogram in the previous literature. The major benefit of this representation is that the consistency conditions can be efficiently evaluated via 2D fast Fourier transform (FFT). Then, we suggest a method that extrapolates the truncated projections with data from a uniform ellipse of which the parameters are determined by optimizing these consistency conditions. The forward projection of the optimized ellipse can be used to complete the truncation data. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using simulated data and reprojections of clinical data. Results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) is reduced substantially, compared to a state-of-the-art extrapolation method.

An Improved Extrapolation Scheme for Truncated CT Data Using 2D Fourier-Based Helgason-Ludwig Consistency Conditions

PubMed Central

Berger, Martin; Bauer, Sebastian; Hu, Shiyang; Aichert, Andre

2017-01-01

We improve data extrapolation for truncated computed tomography (CT) projections by using Helgason-Ludwig (HL) consistency conditions that mathematically describe the overlap of information between projections. First, we theoretically derive a 2D Fourier representation of the HL consistency conditions from their original formulation (projection moment theorem), for both parallel-beam and fan-beam imaging geometry. The derivation result indicates that there is a zero energy region forming a double-wedge shape in 2D Fourier domain. This observation is also referred to as the Fourier property of a sinogram in the previous literature. The major benefit of this representation is that the consistency conditions can be efficiently evaluated via 2D fast Fourier transform (FFT). Then, we suggest a method that extrapolates the truncated projections with data from a uniform ellipse of which the parameters are determined by optimizing these consistency conditions. The forward projection of the optimized ellipse can be used to complete the truncation data. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using simulated data and reprojections of clinical data. Results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) is reduced substantially, compared to a state-of-the-art extrapolation method. PMID:28808441

Testing a Model of Self-Management of Fluid Intake in Community-Residing Long-Term Indwelling Urinary Catheter Users

PubMed Central

Wilde, Mary H.; Crean, Hugh F.; McMahon, James M.; McDonald, Margaret V.; Tang, Wan; Brasch, Judith; Fairbanks, Eileen; Shah, Shivani; Zhang, Feng

2015-01-01

Background Urinary tract infection and blockage are serious and recurrent challenges for people with long-term indwelling catheters, and these catheter problems cause worry and anxiety when they disrupt normal daily activities. Objectives The goal was to determine whether urinary catheter-related self-management behaviors focusing on fluid intake would mediate fluid intake related self-efficacy toward decreasing catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) and/or catheter blockage. Method The sample involved data collected from 180 adult community-living, long-term indwelling urinary catheter users. The authors tested a model of fluid intake self-management (F-SMG) related to fluid intake self-efficacy (F-SE) for key outcomes of CAUTI and blockage. To account for the large number of zeros in both outcomes, a zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) structural equation model was tested. Results Structurally, F-SE was positively associated with F-SMG, suggesting that higher F-SE predicts more (higher) F-SMG; however, F-SMG was not associated with either the frequency of CAUTI’s or the presence or absence of CAUTI. F-SE was positively related to F-SMG and F-SMG predicted less frequency of catheter blockage, but neither F-SE nor F-SMG predicted the presence or absence of blockage. Discussion Further research is needed to better understand determinants of CAUTI in long-term catheter users and factors which might influence or prevent its occurrence. Increased confidence (self-efficacy) and self-management behaviors to promote fluid intake could be of value in long-term urinary catheter users to decrease catheter blockage. PMID:26938358

Conditional modeling of antibody titers using a zero-inflated poisson random effects model: application to Fabrazyme.

PubMed

Bonate, Peter L; Sung, Crystal; Welch, Karen; Richards, Susan

2009-10-01

Patients that are exposed to biotechnology-derived therapeutics often develop antibodies to the therapeutic, the magnitude of which is assessed by measuring antibody titers. A statistical approach for analyzing antibody titer data conditional on seroconversion is presented. The proposed method is to first transform the antibody titer data based on a geometric series using a common ratio of 2 and a scale factor of 50 and then analyze the exponent using a zero-inflated or hurdle model assuming a Poisson or negative binomial distribution with random effects to account for patient heterogeneity. Patient specific covariates can be used to model the probability of developing an antibody response, i.e., seroconversion, as well as the magnitude of the antibody titer itself. The method was illustrated using antibody titer data from 87 male seroconverted Fabry patients receiving Fabrazyme. Titers from five clinical trials were collected over 276 weeks of therapy with anti-Fabrazyme IgG titers ranging from 100 to 409,600 after exclusion of seronegative patients. The best model to explain seroconversion was a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model where cumulative dose (under a constant dose regimen of dosing every 2 weeks) influenced the probability of seroconversion. There was an 80% chance of seroconversion when the cumulative dose reached 210 mg (90% confidence interval: 194-226 mg). No difference in antibody titers was noted between Japanese or Western patients. Once seroconverted, antibody titers did not remain constant but decreased in an exponential manner from an initial magnitude to a new lower steady-state value. The expected titer after the new steady-state titer had been achieved was 870 (90% CI: 630-1109). The half-life to the new steady-state value after seroconversion was 44 weeks (90% CI: 17-70 weeks). Time to seroconversion did not appear to be correlated with titer at the time of seroconversion. The method can be adequately used to model antibody titer data.

Lotka's Law and Institutional Productivity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kumar, Suresh; Sharma, Praveen; Garg, K. C.

1998-01-01

Examines the applicability of Lotka's Law, negative binomial distribution, and lognormal distribution for institutional productivity in the same way as it is to authors and their productivity. Results indicate that none of the distributions are applicable for institutional productivity in engineering sciences. (Author/LRW)

Predictors of birth-related post-traumatic stress symptoms: secondary analysis of a cohort study.

PubMed

Furuta, Marie; Sandall, Jane; Cooper, Derek; Bick, Debra

2016-12-01

This study aimed to identify factors associated with birth-related post-traumatic stress symptoms during the early postnatal period. Secondary analysis was conducted using data from a prospective cohort study of 1824 women who gave birth in one large hospital in England. Post-traumatic stress symptoms were measured by the Impact of Event Scale at 6 to 8 weeks postpartum. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for analyses. Results showed that post-traumatic stress symptoms were more frequently observed in black women and in women who had a higher pre-pregnancy BMI compared to those with a lower BMI. Women who have a history of mental illness as well as those who gave birth before arriving at the hospital, underwent an emergency caesarean section or experienced severe maternal morbidity or neonatal complications also showed symptoms. Women's perceived control during labour and birth significantly reduced the effects of some risk factors. A higher level of perceived social support during the postnatal period also reduced the risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms. From the perspective of clinical practice, improving women's sense of control during labour and birth appears to be important, as does providing social support following the birth.

Value-based purchasing and hospital acquired conditions: are we seeing improvement?

PubMed

Spaulding, Aaron; Zhao, Mei; Haley, D Rob

2014-12-01

To determine if the Value-Based Purchasing Performance Scoring system correlates with hospital acquired condition quality indicators. This study utilizes the following secondary data sources: the American Hospital Association (AHA) annual survey and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) Value-Based Purchasing and Hospital Acquired Conditions databases. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to examine the effect of CMS total performance score on counts of hospital acquired conditions. Hospital structure variables including size, ownership, teaching status, payer mix, case mix, and location were utilized as control variables. The secondary data sources were merged into a single database using Stata 10. Total performance scores, which are used to determine if hospitals should receive incentive money, do not correlate well with quality outcome in the form of hospital acquired conditions. Value-based purchasing does not appear to correlate with improved quality and patient safety as indicated by Hospital Acquired Condition (HAC) scores. This leads us to believe that either the total performance score does not measure what it should, or the quality outcome measurements do not reflect the quality of the total performance scores measure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volunteerism: Social Network Dynamics and Education

PubMed Central

Ajrouch, Kristine J.; Antonucci, Toni C.; Webster, Noah J.

2016-01-01

Objectives . We examine how changes in social networks influence volunteerism through bridging (diversity) and bonding (spending time) mechanisms. We further investigate whether social network change substitutes or amplifies the effects of education on volunteerism. Methods . Data (n = 543) are drawn from a two-wave survey of Social Relations and Health over the Life Course (SRHLC). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were conducted to test competing hypotheses about how changes in social network characteristics alone and in conjunction with education level predict likelihood and frequency of volunteering. Results . Changes in social networks were associated with volunteerism: as the proportion of family members decreased and the average number of network members living within a one-hour drive increased over time, participants reported higher odds of volunteering. The substitution hypothesis was supported: social networks that exhibited more geographic proximity and greater contact frequency over-time compensated for lower levels of education to predict volunteering more hours. Discussion . The dynamic role of social networks and the ways in which they may work through bridging and bonding to influence both likelihood and frequency of volunteering are discussed. The potential benefits of volunteerism in light of longer life expectancies and smaller families are also considered. PMID:25512570

Health services utilization of people having and not having a regular doctor in Canada.

PubMed

Thanh, Nguyen Xuan; Rapoport, John

2017-04-01

Canada having a universal health insurance plan that provides hospital and physician benefits offers a natural experiment of whether continuity of care actually provides lower or higher utilization of services. The question we are evaluating is whether Canadians, who have a regular physician, use more health resources than those who do not have one? Using two statistical methods, including propensity score matching and zero-inflated negative binomial regression, we analyzed data from the 2010 and 2007/2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys separately to document differences between people self-reportedly having and not having a regular doctor in the utilization of general practitioner, specialist, and hospital services. The results showed, consistently for all two statistical methods and two datasets used, that people reportedly having a regular doctor used more healthcare services than a matched group of people who was self-reportedly not having a regular doctor. For specialist and hospital utilization, the statistically significant differences were in the likelihood if the service was used but not in the number of specialist visits or hospital nights among users. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of early dental office visits on dental caries experience.

PubMed

Beil, Heather; Rozier, R Gary; Preisser, John S; Stearns, Sally C; Lee, Jessica Y

2014-10-01

We determined the association between timing of a first dentist office visit before age 5 years and dental disease in kindergarten. We used North Carolina Medicaid claims (1999-2006) linked to state oral health surveillance data to compare caries experience for kindergarten students (2005-2006) who had a visit before age 60 months (n=11,394) to derive overall exposure effects from a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. We repeated the analysis separately for children who had preventive and tertiary visits. Children who had a visit at age 37 to 48 and 49 to 60 months had significantly less disease than children with a visit by age 24 months (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.81, 0.95; IRR=0.75; 95% CI=0.69, 0.82, respectively). Disease status did not differ between children who had a tertiary visit by age 24 months and other children. Medicaid-enrolled children in our study followed an urgent care type of utilization, and access to dental care was limited. Children at high risk for dental disease should be given priority for a preventive dental visit before age 3 years.

Spatial distribution of citizen science casuistic observations for different taxonomic groups.

PubMed

Tiago, Patrícia; Ceia-Hasse, Ana; Marques, Tiago A; Capinha, César; Pereira, Henrique M

2017-10-16

Opportunistic citizen science databases are becoming an important way of gathering information on species distributions. These data are temporally and spatially dispersed and could have limitations regarding biases in the distribution of the observations in space and/or time. In this work, we test the influence of landscape variables in the distribution of citizen science observations for eight taxonomic groups. We use data collected through a Portuguese citizen science database (biodiversity4all.org). We use a zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model the distribution of observations as a function of a set of variables representing the landscape features plausibly influencing the spatial distribution of the records. Results suggest that the density of paths is the most important variable, having a statistically significant positive relationship with number of observations for seven of the eight taxa considered. Wetland coverage was also identified as having a significant, positive relationship, for birds, amphibians and reptiles, and mammals. Our results highlight that the distribution of species observations, in citizen science projects, is spatially biased. Higher frequency of observations is driven largely by accessibility and by the presence of water bodies. We conclude that efforts are required to increase the spatial evenness of sampling effort from volunteers.

Associations between sensitivity to punishment, sensitivity to reward, and gambling.

PubMed

Gaher, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Shishido, Hanako; Simons, Jeffrey S; Gaster, Sam

2015-03-01

The majority of individuals gamble during their lifetime; however only a subset of these individuals develops problematic gambling. Gray's Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory may be relevant to understanding gambling problems. Differences in sensitivity to punishments and rewards can influence an individual's behavior and may be pertinent to the development of gambling problems. This study examined the functional associations between sensitivity to punishment (SP), sensitivity to reward (SR), and gambling problems in a sample of 2254 college students. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to predict gambling problems as well as the absence of gambling problems. Gambling problems were hypothesized to be positively associated with SR and inversely associated with SP. In addition, SP was hypothesized to moderate the association between SR and gambling problems, attenuating the strength of the association. As hypothesized, SR was positively associated with gambling problems. However, SP did not moderate the relationship between SR and gambling problems. SP did, however, moderate the relationship between SR and the likelihood of never experiencing gambling problems. The results demonstrate that individual differences in SP and SR are functionally associated with gambling problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A computer program to calculate zeroes, extrema, and interval integrals for the associated Legendre functions. [for estimation of bounds of truncation error in spherical harmonic expansion of geopotential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Payne, M. H.

1973-01-01

A computer program is described for the calculation of the zeroes of the associated Legendre functions, Pnm, and their derivatives, for the calculation of the extrema of Pnm and also the integral between pairs of successive zeroes. The program has been run for all n,m from (0,0) to (20,20) and selected cases beyond that for n up to 40. Up to (20,20), the program (written in double precision) retains nearly full accuracy, and indications are that up to (40,40) there is still sufficient precision (4-5 decimal digits for a 54-bit mantissa) for estimation of various bounds and errors involved in geopotential modelling, the purpose for which the program was written.

Measurement of untruncated nuclear spin interactions via zero- to ultralow-field nuclear magnetic resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, J. W.; Sjolander, T. F.; King, J. P.; Ledbetter, M. P.; Levine, E. H.; Bajaj, V. S.; Budker, D.; Pines, A.

2015-12-01

Zero- to ultralow-field nuclear magnetic resonance (ZULF NMR) provides a new regime for the measurement of nuclear spin-spin interactions free from the effects of large magnetic fields, such as truncation of terms that do not commute with the Zeeman Hamiltonian. One such interaction, the magnetic dipole-dipole coupling, is a valuable source of spatial information in NMR, though many terms are unobservable in high-field NMR, and the coupling averages to zero under isotropic molecular tumbling. Under partial alignment, this information is retained in the form of so-called residual dipolar couplings. We report zero- to ultralow-field NMR measurements of residual dipolar couplings in acetonitrile-2-13C aligned in stretched polyvinyl acetate gels. This permits the investigation of dipolar couplings as a perturbation on the indirect spin-spin J coupling in the absence of an applied magnetic field. As a consequence of working at zero magnetic field, we observe terms of the dipole-dipole coupling Hamiltonian that are invisible in conventional high-field NMR. This technique expands the capabilities of zero- to ultralow-field NMR and has potential applications in precision measurement of subtle physical interactions, chemical analysis, and characterization of local mesoscale structure in materials.

Functional Analysis of Rift Valley Fever Virus NSs Encoding a Partial Truncation

PubMed Central

Head, Jennifer A.; Kalveram, Birte; Ikegami, Tetsuro

2012-01-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), belongs to genus Phlebovirus of the family Bunyaviridae, causes high rates of abortion and fetal malformation in infected ruminants as well as causing neurological disorders, blindness, or lethal hemorrhagic fever in humans. RVFV is classified as a category A priority pathogen and a select agent in the U.S., and currently there are no therapeutics available for RVF patients. NSs protein, a major virulence factor of RVFV, inhibits host transcription including interferon (IFN)-β mRNA synthesis and promotes degradation of dsRNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR). NSs self-associates at the C-terminus 17 aa., while NSs at aa.210–230 binds to Sin3A-associated protein (SAP30) to inhibit the activation of IFN-β promoter. Thus, we hypothesize that NSs function(s) can be abolished by truncation of specific domains, and co-expression of nonfunctional NSs with intact NSs will result in the attenuation of NSs function by dominant-negative effect. Unexpectedly, we found that RVFV NSs truncated at aa. 6–30, 31–55, 56–80, 81–105, 106–130, 131–155, 156–180, 181–205, 206–230, 231–248 or 249–265 lack functions of IFN–β mRNA synthesis inhibition and degradation of PKR. Truncated NSs were less stable in infected cells, while nuclear localization was inhibited in NSs lacking either of aa.81–105, 106–130, 131–155, 156–180, 181–205, 206–230 or 231–248. Furthermore, none of truncated NSs had exhibited significant dominant-negative functions for NSs-mediated IFN-β suppression or PKR degradation upon co-expression in cells infected with RVFV. We also found that any of truncated NSs except for intact NSs does not interact with RVFV NSs even in the presence of intact C-terminus self-association domain. Our results suggest that conformational integrity of NSs is important for the stability, cellular localization and biological functions of RVFV NSs, and the co-expression of truncated NSs does not exhibit dominant-negative phenotype. PMID:23029207

QNB: differential RNA methylation analysis for count-based small-sample sequencing data with a quad-negative binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Lian; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Huang, Yufei; Meng, Jia

2017-08-31

As a newly emerged research area, RNA epigenetics has drawn increasing attention recently for the participation of RNA methylation and other modifications in a number of crucial biological processes. Thanks to high throughput sequencing techniques, such as, MeRIP-Seq, transcriptome-wide RNA methylation profile is now available in the form of count-based data, with which it is often of interests to study the dynamics at epitranscriptomic layer. However, the sample size of RNA methylation experiment is usually very small due to its costs; and additionally, there usually exist a large number of genes whose methylation level cannot be accurately estimated due to their low expression level, making differential RNA methylation analysis a difficult task. We present QNB, a statistical approach for differential RNA methylation analysis with count-based small-sample sequencing data. Compared with previous approaches such as DRME model based on a statistical test covering the IP samples only with 2 negative binomial distributions, QNB is based on 4 independent negative binomial distributions with their variances and means linked by local regressions, and in the way, the input control samples are also properly taken care of. In addition, different from DRME approach, which relies only the input control sample only for estimating the background, QNB uses a more robust estimator for gene expression by combining information from both input and IP samples, which could largely improve the testing performance for very lowly expressed genes. QNB showed improved performance on both simulated and real MeRIP-Seq datasets when compared with competing algorithms. And the QNB model is also applicable to other datasets related RNA modifications, including but not limited to RNA bisulfite sequencing, m 1 A-Seq, Par-CLIP, RIP-Seq, etc.

An analytical framework for estimating aquatic species density from environmental DNA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambert, Thierry; Pilliod, David S.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Doi, Hideyuki; Takahara, Teruhiko

2018-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis of water samples is on the brink of becoming a standard monitoring method for aquatic species. This method has improved detection rates over conventional survey methods and thus has demonstrated effectiveness for estimation of site occupancy and species distribution. The frontier of eDNA applications, however, is to infer species density. Building upon previous studies, we present and assess a modeling approach that aims at inferring animal density from eDNA. The modeling combines eDNA and animal count data from a subset of sites to estimate species density (and associated uncertainties) at other sites where only eDNA data are available. As a proof of concept, we first perform a cross-validation study using experimental data on carp in mesocosms. In these data, fish densities are known without error, which allows us to test the performance of the method with known data. We then evaluate the model using field data from a study on a stream salamander species to assess the potential of this method to work in natural settings, where density can never be known with absolute certainty. Two alternative distributions (Normal and Negative Binomial) to model variability in eDNA concentration data are assessed. Assessment based on the proof of concept data (carp) revealed that the Negative Binomial model provided much more accurate estimates than the model based on a Normal distribution, likely because eDNA data tend to be overdispersed. Greater imprecision was found when we applied the method to the field data, but the Negative Binomial model still provided useful density estimates. We call for further model development in this direction, as well as further research targeted at sampling design optimization. It will be important to assess these approaches on a broad range of study systems.

Factors Associated with Hospital Length of Stay among Cancer Patients with Febrile Neutropenia

PubMed Central

Rosa, Regis G.; Goldani, Luciano Z.

2014-01-01

Purpose This study sought to evaluate factors associated with hospital length of stay in cancer patients with febrile neutropenia. Methods A prospective cohort study was performed at a single tertiary referral hospital in southern Brazil from October 2009 to August 2011. All adult cancer patients with febrile neutropenia admitted to the hematology ward were evaluated. Stepwise random-effects negative binomial regression was performed to identify risk factors for prolonged length of hospital stay. Results In total, 307 cases of febrile neutropenia were evaluated. The overall median length of hospital stay was 16 days (interquartile range 18 days). According to multiple negative binomial regression analysis, hematologic neoplasms (P = 0.003), high-dose chemotherapy regimens (P<0.001), duration of neutropenia (P<0.001), and bloodstream infection involving Gram-negative multi-drug-resistant bacteria (P = 0.003) were positively associated with prolonged hospital length of stay in patients with febrile neutropenia. The condition index showed no evidence of multi-collinearity effect among the independent variables. Conclusions Hematologic neoplasms, high-dose chemotherapy regimens, prolonged periods of neutropenia, and bloodstream infection with Gram-negative multi-drug-resistant bacteria are predictors of prolonged length hospital of stay among adult cancer patients with febrile neutropenia. PMID:25285790

Obesity, diet quality and absenteeism in a working population.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Sarah; Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Geaney, Fiona

2016-12-01

The relationship between workplace absenteeism and adverse lifestyle factors (smoking, physical inactivity and poor dietary patterns) remains ambiguous. Reliance on self-reported absenteeism and obesity measures may contribute to this uncertainty. Using objective absenteeism and health status measures, the present study aimed to investigate what health status outcomes and lifestyle factors influence workplace absenteeism. Cross-sectional data were obtained from a complex workplace dietary intervention trial, the Food Choice at Work Study. Four multinational manufacturing workplaces in Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants included 540 randomly selected employees from the four workplaces. Annual count absenteeism data were collected. Physical assessments included objective health status measures (BMI, midway waist circumference and blood pressure). FFQ measured diet quality from which DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) scores were constructed. A zero-inflated negative binomial (zinb) regression model examined associations between health status outcomes, lifestyle characteristics and absenteeism. The mean number of absences was 2·5 (sd 4·5) d. After controlling for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics, the zinb model indicated that absenteeism was positively associated with central obesity, increasing expected absence rate by 72 %. Consuming a high-quality diet and engaging in moderate levels of physical activity were negatively associated with absenteeism and reduced expected frequency by 50 % and 36 %, respectively. Being in a managerial/supervisory position also reduced expected frequency by 50 %. To reduce absenteeism, workplace health promotion policies should incorporate recommendations designed to prevent and manage excess weight, improve diet quality and increase physical activity levels of employees.

Finding consistent patterns: A nonparametric approach for identifying differential expression in RNA-Seq data

PubMed Central

Li, Jun; Tibshirani, Robert

2015-01-01

We discuss the identification of features that are associated with an outcome in RNA-Sequencing (RNA-Seq) and other sequencing-based comparative genomic experiments. RNA-Seq data takes the form of counts, so models based on the normal distribution are generally unsuitable. The problem is especially challenging because different sequencing experiments may generate quite different total numbers of reads, or ‘sequencing depths’. Existing methods for this problem are based on Poisson or negative binomial models: they are useful but can be heavily influenced by ‘outliers’ in the data. We introduce a simple, nonparametric method with resampling to account for the different sequencing depths. The new method is more robust than parametric methods. It can be applied to data with quantitative, survival, two-class or multiple-class outcomes. We compare our proposed method to Poisson and negative binomial-based methods in simulated and real data sets, and find that our method discovers more consistent patterns than competing methods. PMID:22127579

Transient establishment of the wavefronts for negative, zero, and positive refraction.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenjuan; Wu, Qiang; Wang, Ride; Gao, Jianshun; Lu, Yao; Zhang, Qi; Qi, Jiwei; Zhang, Chunling; Pan, Chongpei; Rupp, Romano; Xu, Jingjun

2018-01-22

We quantitatively demonstrate transient establishment of wavefronts for negative, zero, and positive refraction through a wedge-shaped metamaterial consisting of periodically arranged split-ring resonators and metallic wires. The wavefronts for the three types of refractions propagate through the second interface of the wedge along positive refraction angles at first, then reorganize, and finally propagate along the effective refraction angles after a period of establishment time respectively. The establishment time of the wavefronts prevents violating causality or superluminal propagation for negative and zero refraction. The establishment time for negative or zero refraction is longer than that for positive refraction. For all three refraction processes, transient establishment processes precede the establishment of steady propagation. Moreover, some detailed characters are proven in our research, including infinite wavelength, uniform phase inside the zero-index material, and the phase velocity being antiparallel to the group velocity in the negative-index material.

Statistical methods for meta-analyses including information from studies without any events-add nothing to nothing and succeed nevertheless.

PubMed

Kuss, O

2015-03-30

Meta-analyses with rare events, especially those that include studies with no event in one ('single-zero') or even both ('double-zero') treatment arms, are still a statistical challenge. In the case of double-zero studies, researchers in general delete these studies or use continuity corrections to avoid them. A number of arguments against both options has been given, and statistical methods that use the information from double-zero studies without using continuity corrections have been proposed. In this paper, we collect them and compare them by simulation. This simulation study tries to mirror real-life situations as completely as possible by deriving true underlying parameters from empirical data on actually performed meta-analyses. It is shown that for each of the commonly encountered effect estimators valid statistical methods are available that use the information from double-zero studies without using continuity corrections. Interestingly, all of them are truly random effects models, and so also the current standard method for very sparse data as recommended from the Cochrane collaboration, the Yusuf-Peto odds ratio, can be improved on. For actual analysis, we recommend to use beta-binomial regression methods to arrive at summary estimates for the odds ratio, the relative risk, or the risk difference. Methods that ignore information from double-zero studies or use continuity corrections should no longer be used. We illustrate the situation with an example where the original analysis ignores 35 double-zero studies, and a superior analysis discovers a clinically relevant advantage of off-pump surgery in coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Longitudinal Analysis of Stepfamily Relationship Quality and Adolescent Physical Health.

PubMed

Jensen, Todd M; Harris, Kathleen Mullan

2017-10-01

Approximately one third of youth are estimated to live with a biological parent and stepparent before reaching adulthood. Additional research is warranted whereby stepfamily processes are identified that drive variation in youth adjustment, particularly physical health. We examined stepfather-child, mother-child, and stepcouple relationship quality as predictors of levels and changes in adolescent physical health over time. We used a nationally representative sample of 1,233 adolescents living in biological mother-stepfather families from waves I (1994-1995) and II (1996) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We incorporated measures of stepfather-child, mother-child, and stepcouple relationship quality, as well as adolescent reports of 10 physical health symptoms at waves I and II. Structural equation modeling was used to examine associations between wave I stepfamily relationships and adolescent physical symptoms at waves I and II. We used a zero-inflated negative binomial model to establish the validity of wave II adolescent physical symptoms as a predictor of an index of diagnosed chronic illnesses by wave IV (ages 26-32 years). Stepfather-child and mother-child relationship quality were negatively correlated with concurrent levels of adolescent physical symptoms. Stepfather-child relationship quality was negatively associated with change in adolescent physical symptoms over time. Adolescents with higher levels of physical symptoms at wave II were more likely to report chronic illnesses by adulthood. Stepfather-child relationship quality is a robust predictor of adolescent physical health throughout adolescence and is linked to chronic illness diagnoses in young adulthood. Future research should explore further the mechanisms that underlie this association. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The coefficient of determination R2 and intra-class correlation coefficient from generalized linear mixed-effects models revisited and expanded.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Shinichi; Johnson, Paul C D; Schielzeth, Holger

2017-09-01

The coefficient of determination R 2 quantifies the proportion of variance explained by a statistical model and is an important summary statistic of biological interest. However, estimating R 2 for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) remains challenging. We have previously introduced a version of R 2 that we called [Formula: see text] for Poisson and binomial GLMMs, but not for other distributional families. Similarly, we earlier discussed how to estimate intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) using Poisson and binomial GLMMs. In this paper, we generalize our methods to all other non-Gaussian distributions, in particular to negative binomial and gamma distributions that are commonly used for modelling biological data. While expanding our approach, we highlight two useful concepts for biologists, Jensen's inequality and the delta method, both of which help us in understanding the properties of GLMMs. Jensen's inequality has important implications for biologically meaningful interpretation of GLMMs, whereas the delta method allows a general derivation of variance associated with non-Gaussian distributions. We also discuss some special considerations for binomial GLMMs with binary or proportion data. We illustrate the implementation of our extension by worked examples from the field of ecology and evolution in the R environment. However, our method can be used across disciplines and regardless of statistical environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Robustness properties of LQG optimized compensators for collocated rate sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, A. V.

1994-01-01

In this paper we study the robustness with respect to stability of the closed-loop system with collocated rate sensor using LQG (mean square rate) optimized compensators. Our main result is that the transmission zeros of the compensator are precisely the structure modes when the actuator/sensor locations are 'pinned' and/or 'clamped': i.e., motion in the direction sensed is not allowed. We have stability even under parameter mismatch, except in the unlikely situation where such a mode frequency of the assumed system coincides with an undamped mode frequency of the real system and the corresponding mode shape is an eigenvector of the compensator transfer function matrix at that frequency. For a truncated modal model - such as that of the NASA LaRC Phase Zero Evolutionary model - the transmission zeros of the corresponding compensator transfer function can be interpreted as the structure modes when motion in the directions sensed is prohibited.

Influences on preschool children's oral health-related quality of life as reported by English and Spanish-speaking parents and caregivers.

PubMed

Born, Catherine D; Divaris, Kimon; Zeldin, Leslie P; Rozier, R Gary

2016-09-01

This study examined young, preschool children's oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) among a community-based cohort of English and Spanish-speaking parent-child dyads in North Carolina, and sought to quantify the association of parent/caregiver characteristics, including spoken language, with OHRQoL impacts. Data from structured interviews with 1,111 parents of children aged 6-23 months enrolled in the Zero-Out Early Childhood Caries study in 2010-2012 were used. OHRQoL was measured using the overall score (range: 0-52) of the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS). We examined associations with parents' sociodemographic characteristics, spoken language, self-reported oral and general health, oral health knowledge, children's dental attendance, and dental care needs. Analyses included descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate methods based upon zero-inflated negative binomial regression. To determine differences between English and Spanish speakers, language-stratified model estimates were contrasted using homogeneity χ 2 tests. The mean overall ECOHIS score was 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.6-4.2]; 4.7 among English-speakers and 1.5 among Spanish speakers. In multivariate analyses, caregivers' education showed a positive association with OHRQoL impacts among Spanish speakers [prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.12 (95% CI = 1.03-1.22), for every added year of schooling], whereas caregivers' fair/poor oral health showed a positive association among English speakers (PR = 1.20; 95% CI = 1.02-1.41). The overall severity of ECOHIS impacts was low among this population-based sample of young, preschool children, and substantially lower among Spanish versus English speakers. Further studies are warranted to identify sources of these differences in - actual or reported - OHRQoL impacts. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

The impact of poor psychosocial work environment on non-work-related sickness absence.

PubMed

Catalina-Romero, C; Sainz, J C; Pastrana-Jiménez, J I; García-Diéguez, N; Irízar-Muñoz, I; Aleixandre-Chiva, J L; Gonzalez-Quintela, A; Calvo-Bonacho, E

2015-08-01

We aimed to analyse the impact of psychosocial work environment on non-work-related sickness absence (NWRSA) among a prospective cohort study, stratified using a random sampling technique. Psychosocial variables were assessed among 15,643 healthy workers using a brief version of the Spanish adaptation of Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire. A one year follow-up assessed the total count of NWRSA days. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used for multivariate analyses. After adjusting for covariates, low levels of job control and possibilities for development (Odds Ratio [OR]: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.01-1.36 [men]; OR: 1.39 95% CI: 1.09-1.77 [women]), poor social support and quality of leadership (OR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11-1.50 [men]; OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.01-1.63 [women]), and poor rewards (OR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.14-1.57 [men]; OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.01-1.66 [women]) predicted a total count of sickness absence greater than zero, in both men and women. Double presence was also significantly associated with NWRSA different than 0, but only among women (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.08-1.81). Analyses found no association between psychosocial risk factors at work and the total count (i.e., number of days) of sickness absences. The results suggest that work-related psychosocial factors may increase the likelihood of initiating an NWRSA episode, but were not associated with the length of the sickness absence episode. Among our large cohort we observed that some associations were gender-dependent, suggesting that future research should consider gender when designing psychosocial interventions aimed at decreasing sickness absences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

School Violence: The Role of Parental and Community Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lesneskie, Eric; Block, Steven

2017-01-01

This study utilizes the School Survey on Crime and Safety to identify variables that predict lower levels of violence from four domains: school security, school climate, parental involvement, and community involvement. Negative binomial regression was performed and the findings indicate that statistically significant results come from all four…

Predicting Children's Asthma Hospitalizations: Rural and Urban Differences in Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grineski, Sara E.

2009-01-01

Asthma is the number one chronic health condition facing children today; however, little is known about rural-urban inequalities in asthma. This "area effects on health" study examines rural-urban differences in childhood asthma hospitalizations within the state of Texas using negative binomial regression models. Effects associated with…

An Alternate Approach to Alternating Sums: A Method to DIE for

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benjamin, Arthur T.; Quinn, Jennifer J.

2008-01-01

Positive sums count. Alternating sums match. Alternating sums of binomial coefficients, Fibonacci numbers, and other combinatorial quantities are analyzed using sign-reversing involutions. In particular, we describe the quantity being considered, match positive and negative terms through an Involution, and count the Exceptions to the matching rule…

Transportation safety data and analysis : Volume 2, Calibration of the highway safety manual and development of new safety performance functions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

This report documents the calibration of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) safety performance function (SPF) : for rural two-lane two-way roadway segments in Utah and the development of new models using negative : binomial and hierarchical Bayesian mod...

Context-sensitivity of the feedback-related negativity for zero-value feedback outcomes.

PubMed

Pfabigan, Daniela M; Seidel, Eva-Maria; Paul, Katharina; Grahl, Arvina; Sailer, Uta; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian; Lamm, Claus

2015-01-01

The present study investigated whether the same visual stimulus indicating zero-value feedback (€0) elicits feedback-related negativity (FRN) variation, depending on whether the outcomes correspond with expectations or not. Thirty-one volunteers performed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task while EEG was recorded. FRN amplitudes were comparable and more negative when zero-value outcome deviated from expectations than with expected gain or loss, supporting theories emphasising the impact of unexpectedness and salience on FRN amplitudes. Surprisingly, expected zero-value outcomes elicited the most negative FRNs. However, source localisation showed that such outcomes evoked less activation in cingulate areas than unexpected zero-value outcomes. Our study illustrates the context dependency of identical zero-value feedback stimuli. Moreover, the results indicate that the incentive cues in the MID task evoke different reward prediction error signals. These prediction signals differ in FRN amplitude and neuronal sources, and have to be considered in the design and interpretation of future studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel nonsense mutation in the katA gene of a catalase-negative Staphylococcus aureus strain.

PubMed

Lagos, Jaime; Alarcón, Pedro; Benadof, Dona; Ulloa, Soledad; Fasce, Rodrigo; Tognarelli, Javier; Aguayo, Carolina; Araya, Pamela; Parra, Bárbara; Olivares, Berta; Hormazábal, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Jorge

2016-01-01

We report the first description of a rare catalase-negative strain of Staphylococcus aureus in Chile. This new variant was isolated from blood and synovial tissue samples of a pediatric patient. Sequencing analysis revealed that this catalase-negative strain is related to ST10 strain, which has earlier been described in relation to S. aureus carriers. Interestingly, sequence analysis of the catalase gene katA revealed presence of a novel nonsense mutation that causes premature translational truncation of the C-terminus of the enzyme leading to a loss of 222 amino acids. Our study suggests that loss of catalase activity in this rare catalase-negative Chilean strain is due to this novel nonsense mutation in the katA gene, which truncates the enzyme to just 283 amino acids. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Microbiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Functional linear models for zero-inflated count data with application to modeling hospitalizations in patients on dialysis.

PubMed

Sentürk, Damla; Dalrymple, Lorien S; Nguyen, Danh V

2014-11-30

We propose functional linear models for zero-inflated count data with a focus on the functional hurdle and functional zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models. Although the hurdle model assumes the counts come from a mixture of a degenerate distribution at zero and a zero-truncated Poisson distribution, the ZIP model considers a mixture of a degenerate distribution at zero and a standard Poisson distribution. We extend the generalized functional linear model framework with a functional predictor and multiple cross-sectional predictors to model counts generated by a mixture distribution. We propose an estimation procedure for functional hurdle and ZIP models, called penalized reconstruction, geared towards error-prone and sparsely observed longitudinal functional predictors. The approach relies on dimension reduction and pooling of information across subjects involving basis expansions and penalized maximum likelihood techniques. The developed functional hurdle model is applied to modeling hospitalizations within the first 2 years from initiation of dialysis, with a high percentage of zeros, in the Comprehensive Dialysis Study participants. Hospitalization counts are modeled as a function of sparse longitudinal measurements of serum albumin concentrations, patient demographics, and comorbidities. Simulation studies are used to study finite sample properties of the proposed method and include comparisons with an adaptation of standard principal components regression. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zero-multipole summation method for efficiently estimating electrostatic interactions in molecular system.

PubMed

Fukuda, Ikuo

2013-11-07

The zero-multipole summation method has been developed to efficiently evaluate the electrostatic Coulombic interactions of a point charge system. This summation prevents the electrically non-neutral multipole states that may artificially be generated by a simple cutoff truncation, which often causes large amounts of energetic noise and significant artifacts. The resulting energy function is represented by a constant term plus a simple pairwise summation, using a damped or undamped Coulombic pair potential function along with a polynomial of the distance between each particle pair. Thus, the implementation is straightforward and enables facile applications to high-performance computations. Any higher-order multipole moment can be taken into account in the neutrality principle, and it only affects the degree and coefficients of the polynomial and the constant term. The lowest and second moments correspond respectively to the Wolf zero-charge scheme and the zero-dipole summation scheme, which was previously proposed. Relationships with other non-Ewald methods are discussed, to validate the current method in their contexts. Good numerical efficiencies were easily obtained in the evaluation of Madelung constants of sodium chloride and cesium chloride crystals.

A stochastic fault model. 2. Time-dependent case.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.

1981-01-01

A random model of fault motion in an earthquake is formulated by assuming that the slip velocity is a random function of position and time truncated at zero, so that it does not have negative values. This random function is chosen to be self-affine; that is, on change of length scale, the function is multiplied by a scale factor but is otherwise unchanged statistically. A snapshot of slip velocity at a given time resembles a cluster of islands with rough topography; the final slip function is a smoother island or cluster of islands. In the Fourier transform domain, shear traction on the fault equals the slip velocity times an impedance function. The fact that this impedance function has a pole at zero frequency implies that traction and slip velocity cannot have the same spectral dependence in space and time. To describe stress fluctuations of the order of 100 bars when smoothed over a length of kilometers and of the order of kilobars at the grain size, shear traction must have a one-dimensional power spectrum is space proportional to the reciprocal wave number. Then the one-dimensional power spectrum for the slip velocity is proportional to the reciprocal wave number squared and for slip to its cube. If slip velocity has the same power law spectrum in time as in space, then the spectrum of ground acceleration with be flat (white noise) both on the fault and in the far field.-Author

Daily variation in natural disaster casualties: information flows, safety, and opportunity costs in tornado versus hurricane strikes.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; Tavani, Daniele; Weiler, Stephan

2013-07-01

Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at-risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering-in-place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Volunteerism: Social Network Dynamics and Education.

PubMed

Ajrouch, Kristine J; Antonucci, Toni C; Webster, Noah J

2016-03-01

. We examine how changes in social networks influence volunteerism through bridging (diversity) and bonding (spending time) mechanisms. We further investigate whether social network change substitutes or amplifies the effects of education on volunteerism. . Data (n = 543) are drawn from a two-wave survey of Social Relations and Health over the Life Course (SRHLC). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were conducted to test competing hypotheses about how changes in social network characteristics alone and in conjunction with education level predict likelihood and frequency of volunteering. . Changes in social networks were associated with volunteerism: as the proportion of family members decreased and the average number of network members living within a one-hour drive increased over time, participants reported higher odds of volunteering. The substitution hypothesis was supported: social networks that exhibited more geographic proximity and greater contact frequency over-time compensated for lower levels of education to predict volunteering more hours. . The dynamic role of social networks and the ways in which they may work through bridging and bonding to influence both likelihood and frequency of volunteering are discussed. The potential benefits of volunteerism in light of longer life expectancies and smaller families are also considered. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Race, Sex, and Discrimination in School Settings: A Multilevel Analysis of Associations With Delinquency.

PubMed

Chambers, Brittany D; Erausquin, Jennifer Toller

2018-02-01

Adolescence is a critical phase of development and experimentation with delinquent behaviors. There is a growing body of literature exploring individual and structural impacts of discrimination on health outcomes and delinquent behaviors. However, there is limited research assessing how school diversity and discrimination impact students' delinquent behaviors. In response, the purpose of this study was to assess if individual- and school-level indicators of discrimination and diversity were associated with student delinquent behaviors among African American and White students. We analyzed Wave I (1994-1995) data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Our analysis was limited to 8947 African American and White students (73% White, 48% male, and 88% parent ≥ high school education). We used multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial regression to test the association of individual- and school characteristics and discrimination with the number of self-reported delinquent behaviors. Race, sex, perceived peer inclusion, and teacher discrimination were predictors of students' delinquent behaviors. The average school perceived peer inclusion and percentage of African Americans in teaching roles were associated with delinquent behaviors. Findings from this study highlight the potential for intervention at the interpersonal and school levels to reduce delinquency among African American and White students. © 2018, American School Health Association.

Effects of fish species composition on Diphyllobothrium spp. infections in brown trout - is three-spined stickleback a key species?

PubMed

Kuhn, J A; Frainer, A; Knudsen, R; Kristoffersen, R; Amundsen, P-A

2016-11-01

Subarctic populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are often heavily infected with cestodes of the genus Diphyllobothrium, assumedly because of their piscivorous behaviour. This study explores possible associations between availability of fish prey and Diphyllobothrium spp. infections in lacustrine trout populations. Trout in (i) allopatry (group T); (ii) sympatry with Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) (group TC); and (iii) sympatry with charr and three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) (group TCS) were contrasted. Mean abundance and intensity of Diphyllobothrium spp. were higher in group TCS compared to groups TC and T. Prevalence, however, was similarly higher in groups TCS and TC compared to group T. Zero-altered negative binomial modelling identified the lowest probability of infection in group T and similar probabilities of infection in groups TC and TCS, whereas the highest intensity was predicted in group TCS. The most infected trout were from the group co-occurring with stickleback (TCS), possibly due to a higher availability of fish prey. In conclusion, our study demonstrates elevated Diphyllobothrium spp. infections in lacustrine trout populations where fish prey are available and suggests that highly available and easily caught stickleback prey may play a key role in the transmission of Diphyllobothrium spp. parasite larvae. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Secondhand smoke exposure in the workplace.

PubMed

Skeer, Margie; Cheng, Debbie M; Rigotti, Nancy A; Siegel, Michael

2005-05-01

Currently, there is little understanding of the relationship between the strength of workplace smoking policies and the likelihood and duration, not just the likelihood, of exposure to secondhand smoke at work. This study assessed self-reported exposure to secondhand smoke at work in hours per week among a cross-sectional sample of 3650 Massachusetts adults who were employed primarily at a single worksite outside the home that was not mainly outdoors. The sample data were from a larger longitudinal study designed to examine the effect of community-based tobacco control interventions on adult and youth smoking behavior. Participants were identified through a random-digit-dialing telephone survey. Multiple logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the independent effect of workplace smoking policies on the likelihood and duration of exposure to secondhand smoke. Compared to employees whose workplace banned smoking completely, those whose workplace provided designated smoking areas had 2.9 times the odds of being exposed to secondhand smoke and 1.74 times the duration of exposure, while those with no restrictions had 10.27 times the odds of being exposed and 6.34 times the duration of exposure. Workplace smoking policies substantially reduce the likelihood of self-reported secondhand smoke exposure among employees in the workplace and also greatly affect the duration of exposure.

Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2016-01-01

Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling. PMID:27322306

Peritraumatic tonic immobility is associated with PTSD symptom severity in Brazilian police officers: a prospective study.

PubMed

Maia, Deborah B; Nóbrega, Augusta; Marques-Portella, Carla; Mendlowicz, Mauro V; Volchan, Eliane; Coutinho, Evandro S; Figueira, Ivan

2015-01-01

Peritraumatic reactions feature prominently among the main predictors for development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Peritraumatic tonic immobility (PTI), a less investigated but equally important type of peritraumatic response, has been recently attracting the attention of researchers and clinicians for its close association with traumatic reactions and PTSD. Our objective was to investigate the role of PTI, peritraumatic panic, and dissociation as predictors of PTSD symptoms in a cohort of police recruits (n=132). Participants were asked to complete the following questionnaires during academy training and after the first year of work: Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist - Civilian Version (PCL-C), Physical Reactions Subscale (PRS), Peritraumatic Dissociative Experiences Questionnaire (PDEQ), Tonic Immobility Scale (TIS), and Critical Incident History Questionnaire. Employing a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model, we found that each additional point in the TIS was associated with a 9% increment in PCL-C mean scores (RM = 1.09), whereas for PRS, the increment was 7% (RM = 1.07). As the severity of peritraumatic dissociation increased one point in the PDEQ, the chance of having at least one symptom in the PCL-C increased 22% (OR = 1.22). Our findings highlight the need to expand investigation on the incidence and impact of PTI on the mental health of police officers.

Predictors of Depressive Symptoms Among Israeli Jews and Arabs During the Al Aqsa Intifada: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Tracy, Melissa; Hobfoll, Stevan E.; Canetti–Nisim, Daphna; Galea, Sandro

2009-01-01

PURPOSE We sought to assess the predictors of depressive symptoms in a population–based cohort exposed to ongoing and widespread terrorism. METHODS Interviews of a representative sample of adults living in Israel, including both Jews and Arabs, were conducted between August and September 2004, with follow-up interviews taking place between February and April 2005. Censoring weights were estimated to account for differential loss to follow-up. Zero-inflated negative binomial models with bootstrapped confidence intervals were fit to assess predictors of severity of depressive symptoms, assessed using items from the Patient Health Questionnaire. RESULTS A total of 1613 Israeli residents participated in the baseline interview (80.8% Jewish, 49.4% male, mean age 43 years); 840 residents also participated in the follow-up interview. In multivariable models, Israeli Arab ethnicity, lower household income, lower social support, experiencing economic loss from terrorism, experiencing higher levels of psychosocial resource loss, and meeting criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder were significantly associated with increased severity of depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS Material deprivation is the primary modifiable risk factor for depressive symptoms in the context of ongoing terrorism. Efforts to minimize ongoing material and economic stressors may mitigate the mental health consequences of ongoing terrorism. PMID:18261923

Impact of modality choice on rates of hospitalization in patients eligible for both peritoneal dialysis and hemodialysis.

PubMed

Quinn, Robert R; Ravani, Pietro; Zhang, Xin; Garg, Amit X; Blake, Peter G; Austin, Peter C; Zacharias, James M; Johnson, John F; Pandeya, Sanjay; Verrelli, Mauro; Oliver, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Hospitalization rates are a relevant consideration when choosing or recommending a dialysis modality. Previous comparisons of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and hemodialysis (HD) have not been restricted to individuals who were eligible for both therapies. ♢ We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of people 18 years of age and older who were eligible for both PD and HD, and who started outpatient dialysis between 2007 and 2010 in four Canadian dialysis programs. Zero-inflated negative binomial models, adjusted for baseline patient characteristics, were used to examine the association between modality choice and rates of hospitalization. ♢ The study enrolled 314 patients. A trend in the HD group toward higher rates of hospitalization, observed in the primary analysis, became significant when modality was treated as a time-varying exposure or when the population was restricted to elective outpatient starts in patients with at least 4 months of pre-dialysis care. Cardiovascular disease, infectious complications, and elective surgery were the most common reasons for hospital admission; only 23% of hospital stays were directly related to complications of dialysis or kidney disease. ♢ Efforts to promote PD utilization are unlikely to result in increased rates of hospitalization, and efforts to reduce hospital admissions should focus on potentially avoidable causes of cardiovascular disease and infectious complications.

Differential associations of urbanicity and income with physical activity in adults in urbanizing China: findings from the population-based China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991-2009.

PubMed

Attard, Samantha M; Howard, Annie-Green; Herring, Amy H; Zhang, Bing; Du, Shufa; Aiello, Allison E; Popkin, Barry M; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2015-12-12

High urbanicity and income are risk factors for cardiovascular-related chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries, perhaps due to low physical activity (PA) in urban, high income areas. Few studies have examined differences in PA over time according to income and urbanicity in a country experiencing rapid urbanization. We used data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, a population-based cohort of Chinese adults (n = 20,083; ages 18-75y) seen a maximum of 7 times from 1991-2009. We used sex-stratified, zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine occupational, domestic, leisure, travel, and total PA in Chinese adults according to year, urbanicity, income, and the interactions among urbanicity, income, and year, controlling for age and region of China. We showed larger mean temporal PA declines for individuals living in relatively low urbanicity areas (1991: 500 MET-hours/week; 2009: 300 MET-hours/week) compared to high urbanicity areas (1991: 200 MET-hours/week; 2009: 125 MET-hours/week). In low urbanicity areas, the association between income and total PA went from negative in 1991 (p < 0.05) to positive by 2000 (p < 0.05). In relatively high urbanicity areas, the income-PA relationship was positive at all time points and was statistically significant at most time points after 1997 (p < 0.05). Leisure PA was the only domain of PA that increased over time, but >95% of individuals in low urbanicity areas reported zero leisure PA at each time point. Our findings show changing associations for income and urbanicity with PA over 18 years of urbanization. Total PA was lower for individuals living in more versus less urban areas at all time points. However, these differences narrowed over time, which may relate to increases in individual-level income in less urban areas of China with urbanization. Low-income individuals in higher urbanicity areas are a particularly critical group to target to increase PA in China.

General Strain Theory as a Basis for the Design of School Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moon, Byongook; Morash, Merry

2013-01-01

The research described in this article applies general strain theory to identify possible points of intervention for reducing delinquency of students in two middle schools. Data were collected from 296 youths, and separate negative binomial regression analyses were used to identify predictors of violent, property, and status delinquency. Emotional…

The Effectiveness of an Electronic Security Management System in a Privately Owned Apartment Complex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenberg, David F.; Roush, Jeffrey B.

2009-01-01

Poisson and negative binomial regression methods are used to analyze the monthly time series data to determine the effects of introducing an integrated security management system including closed-circuit television (CCTV), door alarm monitoring, proximity card access, and emergency call boxes to a large privately-owned complex of apartment…

Socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; Dale, Pat; McMichael, Anthony J; Tong, Shilu

2009-02-01

To assess the socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus (BFV) transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia. Data on BFV notified cases, climate, tidal levels and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA) in six coastal cities, Queensland, for the period 1992-2001 were obtained from the relevant government agencies. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the socio-environmental predictors of BFV transmission. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, high and low tide were statistically significantly associated with BFV incidence at lags 0-2 months. The fitted negative binomial regression models indicate a significant independent association of each of maximum temperature (beta = 0.139, P = 0.000), high tide (beta = 0.005, P = 0.000) and SEIFA index (beta = -0.010, P = 0.000) with BFV transmission after adjustment for confounding variables. The transmission of BFV disease in Queensland coastal areas seemed to be determined by a combination of local social and environmental factors. The model developed in this study may have applications in the control and prevention of BFV disease in these areas.

Mental health status and healthcare utilization among community dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Adepoju, Omolola; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Mileski, Michael; Kruse, Clemens Scott; Mask, Andrew

2018-04-27

Shifts in mental health utilization patterns are necessary to allow for meaningful access to care for vulnerable populations. There have been long standing issues in how mental health is provided, which has caused problems in that care being efficacious for those seeking it. To assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization among adults ≥65 years. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization related to office-based physician visits, while a two-part model, consisting of logistic regression and negative binomial regression, was used to separately model emergency visits and inpatient services. The receipt of care in office-based settings were marginally higher for subjects with mental health difficulties. Both probabilities and counts of inpatient hospitalizations were similar across mental health categories. The count of ER visits was similar across mental health categories; however, the probability of having an emergency department visit was marginally higher for older adults who reported mental health difficulties in 2012. These findings are encouraging and lend promise to the recent initiatives on addressing gaps in mental healthcare services.

Statistical models for RNA-seq data derived from a two-condition 48-replicate experiment.

PubMed

Gierliński, Marek; Cole, Christian; Schofield, Pietà; Schurch, Nicholas J; Sherstnev, Alexander; Singh, Vijender; Wrobel, Nicola; Gharbi, Karim; Simpson, Gordon; Owen-Hughes, Tom; Blaxter, Mark; Barton, Geoffrey J

2015-11-15

High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is now the standard method to determine differential gene expression. Identifying differentially expressed genes crucially depends on estimates of read-count variability. These estimates are typically based on statistical models such as the negative binomial distribution, which is employed by the tools edgeR, DESeq and cuffdiff. Until now, the validity of these models has usually been tested on either low-replicate RNA-seq data or simulations. A 48-replicate RNA-seq experiment in yeast was performed and data tested against theoretical models. The observed gene read counts were consistent with both log-normal and negative binomial distributions, while the mean-variance relation followed the line of constant dispersion parameter of ∼0.01. The high-replicate data also allowed for strict quality control and screening of 'bad' replicates, which can drastically affect the gene read-count distribution. RNA-seq data have been submitted to ENA archive with project ID PRJEB5348. g.j.barton@dundee.ac.uk. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Statistical models for RNA-seq data derived from a two-condition 48-replicate experiment

PubMed Central

Cole, Christian; Schofield, Pietà; Schurch, Nicholas J.; Sherstnev, Alexander; Singh, Vijender; Wrobel, Nicola; Gharbi, Karim; Simpson, Gordon; Owen-Hughes, Tom; Blaxter, Mark; Barton, Geoffrey J.

2015-01-01

Motivation: High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is now the standard method to determine differential gene expression. Identifying differentially expressed genes crucially depends on estimates of read-count variability. These estimates are typically based on statistical models such as the negative binomial distribution, which is employed by the tools edgeR, DESeq and cuffdiff. Until now, the validity of these models has usually been tested on either low-replicate RNA-seq data or simulations. Results: A 48-replicate RNA-seq experiment in yeast was performed and data tested against theoretical models. The observed gene read counts were consistent with both log-normal and negative binomial distributions, while the mean-variance relation followed the line of constant dispersion parameter of ∼0.01. The high-replicate data also allowed for strict quality control and screening of ‘bad’ replicates, which can drastically affect the gene read-count distribution. Availability and implementation: RNA-seq data have been submitted to ENA archive with project ID PRJEB5348. Contact: g.j.barton@dundee.ac.uk PMID:26206307

Simplified pupal surveys of Aedes aegypti (L.) for entomologic surveillance and dengue control.

PubMed

Barrera, Roberto

2009-07-01

Pupal surveys of Aedes aegypti (L.) are useful indicators of risk for dengue transmission, although sample sizes for reliable estimations can be large. This study explores two methods for making pupal surveys more practical yet reliable and used data from 10 pupal surveys conducted in Puerto Rico during 2004-2008. The number of pupae per person for each sampling followed a negative binomial distribution, thus showing aggregation. One method found a common aggregation parameter (k) for the negative binomial distribution, a finding that enabled the application of a sequential sampling method requiring few samples to determine whether the number of pupae/person was above a vector density threshold for dengue transmission. A second approach used the finding that the mean number of pupae/person is correlated with the proportion of pupa-infested households and calculated equivalent threshold proportions of pupa-positive households. A sequential sampling program was also developed for this method to determine whether observed proportions of infested households were above threshold levels. These methods can be used to validate entomological thresholds for dengue transmission.

Modeling left-turn crash occurrence at signalized intersections by conflicting patterns.

PubMed

Wang, Xuesong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2008-01-01

In order to better understand the underlying crash mechanisms, left-turn crashes occurring at 197 four-legged signalized intersections over 6 years were classified into nine patterns based on vehicle maneuvers and then were assigned to intersection approaches. Crash frequency of each pattern was modeled at the approach level by mainly using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) with the Negative Binomial as the link function to account for the correlation among the crash data. GEE with a binomial logit link function was also applied for patterns with fewer crashes. The Cumulative Residuals test shows that, for correlated left-turn crashes, GEE models usually outperformed basic Negative Binomial models. The estimation results show that there are obvious differences in the factors that cause the occurrence of different left-turn collision patterns. For example, for each pattern, the traffic flows to which the colliding vehicles belong are identified to be significant. The width of the crossing distance (represented by the number of through lanes on the opposing approach of the left-turning traffic) is associated with more left-turn traffic colliding with opposing through traffic (Pattern 5), but with less left-turning traffic colliding with near-side crossing through traffic (Pattern 8). The safety effectiveness of the left-turning signal is not consistent for different crash patterns; "protected" phasing is correlated with fewer Pattern 5 crashes, but with more Pattern 8 crashes. The study indicates that in order to develop efficient countermeasures for left-turn crashes and improve safety at signalized intersections, left-turn crashes should be considered in different patterns.

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People's Republic of China: 2004-2013.

PubMed

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People's Republic of China. Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People's Republic of China during the period 2004-2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People's Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People's Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Suicide rate decreased in 2004-2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People's Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study.

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People’s Republic of China: 2004–2013

PubMed Central

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People’s Republic of China. Methods Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People’s Republic of China during the period 2004–2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Results Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Conclusion Suicide rate decreased in 2004–2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People’s Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study. PMID:27994468

Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

2013-01-01

Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic-related crashes. Hence, maintaining a low level of pavement roughness is strongly suggested. In addition, the results suggested that the temporal correlation among observations was significant and that the ORENB model outperformed all other models.

Particulate matter exposure increases JC polyomavirus replication in the human host.

PubMed

Dolci, Maria; Favero, Chiara; Bollati, Valentina; Campo, Laura; Cattaneo, Andrea; Bonzini, Matteo; Villani, Sonia; Ticozzi, Rosalia; Ferrante, Pasquale; Delbue, Serena

2018-05-29

Human polyomaviruses (HPyVs) asymptomatically infect the human population during childhood and establish latency in the host. Viral reactivation and urinary excretion can occur when the immune system is impaired. Exposure to particulate air pollution, including the PM 10 /PM 2.5 components, is a public health problem and has been linked to several disorders. Studies assessing the relationship between PM 10 /PM 2.5 exposure and viral replication are lacking. To investigate the relationship between HPyVs viruria and PM 10 /PM 2.5 exposures. Individual environmental exposure was assessed in 50 healthy adult volunteers using a chemical transport model (CTM) with a municipality resolution for daily PM 10 and monitoring stations data for daily PM 2.5 exposures. For each subject, a urine sample was collected, and HPyVs (JCPyV, BKPyV, MCPyV, HPyV6, HPyV7 and HPyV9) loads were determined. Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression was used to model the count data, as it contained excessive zeros. Covariates were chosen by stepwise selection. HPyVs DNA was detected in 54% (median:87.6*10 5 copies/ml) of the urine samples. JCPyV was the prevalent (48%, (median viral load:126*10 5 copies/ml). Considering the load of the most frequently measured HPyVs, JCPyV, in the count-part of the ZINB model, every unitary in PM measured 2 days before urine collection (PM Day -2) was associated with an increase in JCPyV load (PM 10 : +4.0%, p-value = 0.002; PM 2.5 : +3.6%, p-value = 0.005). In the zero-part, the significant predictor was the PM 10 measured 5 days before urine collection (+3%, p-value = 0.03). The environmental levels of PM 10 /PM 2.5 increase the JCPyV viruria. Our findings emphasize the need for studies assessing the influence of air pollution exposure on the risk of viral reactivation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

2013-01-01

This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

The Influence of Television Advertisements on Promoting Calls to Telephone Quitlines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farrelly, Matthew; Mann, Nathan; Watson, Kimberly; Pechacek, Terry

2013-01-01

The aim of the study was to assess the relative effectiveness of cessation, secondhand smoke and other tobacco control television advertisements in promoting quitlines in nine states from 2002 through 2005. Quarterly, the number of individuals who used quitlines per 10 000 adult smokers in a media market are measured. Negative binomial regression…

Statistical Characterization of Altitude Matrices by Computer. Report 4. Frequency Distributions of Gradient.

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-01-01

balanced at the mean, with the central part steeper ( platykurtic : broad mode or truncated tails) -r flatter (leptokurtic: peaked mode or extended...and NUPUR, have negative kurtosis (they are platykurtic , with truncated tails and/or broad modes relative to their standard deviations) FERRO, on the...the other areas, and its gradients are platykurtic but almost unskewed. Hence the square root of sine transformation (Fig,15) and the log tangent

A History of the U.S. Army Officer Corps, 1900-1990

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

continental United States (CONUS) in case it was called upon to fight a reprise of World War II. There were large variations in troop strength during...perva- sive “zero-defects” mentality, tensions generated by an elevated operational tempo , an erosion of officer warfighting skills, and truncated...magazine/arti- cle/0,9171,896531-1,00.html; J. Flanagan, J. Daily, M. Shaycroft, M. Gorham, W. Orr, and D. Goldberg , “Identification, Development, and

Volume-preserving normal forms of Hopf-zero singularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazor, Majid; Mokhtari, Fahimeh

2013-10-01

A practical method is described for computing the unique generator of the algebra of first integrals associated with a large class of Hopf-zero singularity. The set of all volume-preserving classical normal forms of this singularity is introduced via a Lie algebra description. This is a maximal vector space of classical normal forms with first integral; this is whence our approach works. Systems with a nonzero condition on their quadratic parts are considered. The algebra of all first integrals for any such system has a unique (modulo scalar multiplication) generator. The infinite level volume-preserving parametric normal forms of any nondegenerate perturbation within the Lie algebra of any such system is computed, where it can have rich dynamics. The associated unique generator of the algebra of first integrals are derived. The symmetry group of the infinite level normal forms are also discussed. Some necessary formulas are derived and applied to appropriately modified Rössler and generalized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equations to demonstrate the applicability of our theoretical results. An approach (introduced by Iooss and Lombardi) is applied to find an optimal truncation for the first level normal forms of these examples with exponentially small remainders. The numerically suggested radius of convergence (for the first integral) associated with a hypernormalization step is discussed for the truncated first level normal forms of the examples. This is achieved by an efficient implementation of the results using Maple.

Measuring women's cumulative neighborhood deprivation exposure using longitudinally linked vital records: a method for life course MCH research.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Dunlop, Anne L; Hogue, Carol J R

2014-02-01

A life course conceptual framework for MCH research demands new tools for understanding population health and measuring exposures. We propose a method for measuring population-based socio-environmental trajectories for women of reproductive age. We merged maternal longitudinally-linked births to Georgia-resident women from 1994 to 2007 with census economic and social measures using residential geocodes to create woman-centered socio-environmental trajectories. We calculated a woman's neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) at the time of each of her births and, from these, we calculated a cumulative NDI. We fit Loess curves to describe average life course NDI trajectories and binomial regression models to test specific life course theory hypotheses relating cumulative NDI to risk for preterm birth. Of the 1,815,944 total live births, we linked 1,000,437 live births to 413,048 unique women with two or more births. Record linkage had high specificity but relatively low sensitivity which appears non-differential with respect to maternal characteristics. Georgia women on average experienced upward mobility across the life course, although differences by race, early life neighborhood quality, and age at first birth produced differences in cumulative NDI. Adjusted binomial models found evidence for modification of the effect of history of prior preterm birth and advancing age on risk for preterm birth by cumulative NDI. The creation of trajectories from geocoded maternal longitudinally-linked vital records is one method to carry out life course MCH research. We discuss approaches for investigating the impact of truncation of the life course, selection bias from migration, and misclassification of cumulative exposure.

Molecular evolution of pentatricopeptide repeat genes reveals truncation in species lacking an editing target and structural domains under distinct selective pressures.

PubMed

Hayes, Michael L; Giang, Karolyn; Mulligan, R Michael

2012-05-14

Pentatricopeptide repeat (PPR) proteins are required for numerous RNA processing events in plant organelles including C-to-U editing, splicing, stabilization, and cleavage. Fifteen PPR proteins are known to be required for RNA editing at 21 sites in Arabidopsis chloroplasts, and belong to the PLS class of PPR proteins. In this study, we investigate the co-evolution of four PPR genes (CRR4, CRR21, CLB19, and OTP82) and their six editing targets in Brassicaceae species. PPR genes are composed of approximately 10 to 20 tandem repeats and each repeat has two α-helical regions, helix A and helix B, that are separated by short coil regions. Each repeat and structural feature was examined to determine the selective pressures on these regions. All of the PPR genes examined are under strong negative selection. Multiple independent losses of editing site targets are observed for both CRR21 and OTP82. In several species lacking the known editing target for CRR21, PPR genes are truncated near the 17th PPR repeat. The coding sequences of the truncated CRR21 genes are maintained under strong negative selection; however, the 3' UTR sequences beyond the truncation site have substantially diverged. Phylogenetic analyses of four PPR genes show that sequences corresponding to helix A are high compared to helix B sequences. Differential evolutionary selection of helix A versus helix B is observed in both plant and mammalian PPR genes. PPR genes and their cognate editing sites are mutually constrained in evolution. Editing sites are frequently lost by replacement of an edited C with a genomic T. After the loss of an editing site, the PPR genes are observed with three outcomes: first, few changes are detected in some cases; second, the PPR gene is present as a pseudogene; and third, the PPR gene is present but truncated in the C-terminal region. The retention of truncated forms of CRR21 that are maintained under strong negative selection even in the absence of an editing site target suggests that unrecognized function(s) might exist for this PPR protein. PPR gene sequences that encode helix A are under strong selection, and could be involved in RNA substrate recognition.

Spatial Distribution of Adult Anthonomus grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) and Damage to Cotton Flower Buds Due to Feeding and Oviposition.

PubMed

Grigolli, J F J; Souza, L A; Fernandes, M G; Busoli, A C

2017-08-01

The cotton boll weevil Anthonomus grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is the main pest in cotton crop around the world, directly affecting cotton production. In order to establish a sequential sampling plan, it is crucial to understand the spatial distribution of the pest population and the damage it causes to the crop through the different developmental stages of cotton plants. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of adults in the cultivation area and their oviposition and feeding behavior throughout the development of the cotton plants. The experiment was conducted in Maracaju, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 growing seasons, in an area of 10,000 m 2 , planted with the cotton cultivar FM 993. The experimental area was divided into 100 plots of 100 m 2 (10 × 10 m) each, and five plants per plot were sampled weekly throughout the crop cycle. The number of flower buds with feeding and oviposition punctures and of adult A. grandis was recorded throughout the crop cycle in five plants per plot. After determining the aggregation indices (variance/mean ratio, Morisita's index, exponent k of the negative binomial distribution, and Green's coefficient) and adjusting the frequencies observed in the field to the distribution of frequencies (Poisson, negative binomial, and positive binomial) using the chi-squared test, it was observed that flower buds with punctures derived from feeding, oviposition, and feeding + oviposition showed an aggregated distribution in the cultivation area until 85 days after emergence and a random distribution after this stage. The adults of A. grandis presented a random distribution in the cultivation area.

A flexible count data model to fit the wide diversity of expression profiles arising from extensively replicated RNA-seq experiments

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) offers unprecedented power to capture the real dynamics of gene expression. Experimental designs with extensive biological replication present a unique opportunity to exploit this feature and distinguish expression profiles with higher resolution. RNA-seq data analysis methods so far have been mostly applied to data sets with few replicates and their default settings try to provide the best performance under this constraint. These methods are based on two well-known count data distributions: the Poisson and the negative binomial. The way to properly calibrate them with large RNA-seq data sets is not trivial for the non-expert bioinformatics user. Results Here we show that expression profiles produced by extensively-replicated RNA-seq experiments lead to a rich diversity of count data distributions beyond the Poisson and the negative binomial, such as Poisson-Inverse Gaussian or Pólya-Aeppli, which can be captured by a more general family of count data distributions called the Poisson-Tweedie. The flexibility of the Poisson-Tweedie family enables a direct fitting of emerging features of large expression profiles, such as heavy-tails or zero-inflation, without the need to alter a single configuration parameter. We provide a software package for R called tweeDEseq implementing a new test for differential expression based on the Poisson-Tweedie family. Using simulations on synthetic and real RNA-seq data we show that tweeDEseq yields P-values that are equally or more accurate than competing methods under different configuration parameters. By surveying the tiny fraction of sex-specific gene expression changes in human lymphoblastoid cell lines, we also show that tweeDEseq accurately detects differentially expressed genes in a real large RNA-seq data set with improved performance and reproducibility over the previously compared methodologies. Finally, we compared the results with those obtained from microarrays in order to check for reproducibility. Conclusions RNA-seq data with many replicates leads to a handful of count data distributions which can be accurately estimated with the statistical model illustrated in this paper. This method provides a better fit to the underlying biological variability; this may be critical when comparing groups of RNA-seq samples with markedly different count data distributions. The tweeDEseq package forms part of the Bioconductor project and it is available for download at http://www.bioconductor.org. PMID:23965047

[Spatial epidemiological study on malaria epidemics in Hainan province].

PubMed

Wen, Liang; Shi, Run-He; Fang, Li-Qun; Xu, De-Zhong; Li, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Yong; Yuan, Zheng-Quan; Zhang, Hui

2008-06-01

To better understand the characteristics of spatial distribution of malaria epidemics in Hainan province and to explore the relationship between malaria epidemics and environmental factors, as well to develop prediction model on malaria epidemics. Data on Malaria and meteorological factors were collected in all 19 counties in Hainan province from May to Oct., 2000, and the proportion of land use types of these counties in this period were extracted from digital map of land use in Hainan province. Land surface temperatures (LST) were extracted from MODIS images and elevations of these counties were extracted from DEM of Hainan province. The coefficients of correlation of malaria incidences and these environmental factors were then calculated with SPSS 13.0, and negative binomial regression analysis were done using SAS 9.0. The incidence of malaria showed (1) positive correlations to elevation, proportion of forest land area and grassland area; (2) negative correlations to the proportion of cultivated area, urban and rural residents and to industrial enterprise area, LST; (3) no correlations to meteorological factors, proportion of water area, and unemployed land area. The prediction model of malaria which came from negative binomial regression analysis was: I (monthly, unit: 1/1,000,000) = exp (-1.672-0.399xLST). Spatial distribution of malaria epidemics was associated with some environmental factors, and prediction model of malaria epidemic could be developed with indexes which extracted from satellite remote sensing images.

Single-vehicle crashes along rural mountainous highways in Malaysia: An application of random parameters negative binomial model.

PubMed

Rusli, Rusdi; Haque, Md Mazharul; King, Mark; Voon, Wong Shaw

2017-05-01

Mountainous highways generally associate with complex driving environment because of constrained road geometries, limited cross-section elements, inappropriate roadside features, and adverse weather conditions. As a result, single-vehicle (SV) crashes are overrepresented along mountainous roads, particularly in developing countries, but little attention is known about the roadway geometric, traffic and weather factors contributing to these SV crashes. As such, the main objective of the present study is to investigate SV crashes using detailed data obtained from a rigorous site survey and existing databases. The final dataset included a total of 56 variables representing road geometries including horizontal and vertical alignment, traffic characteristics, real-time weather condition, cross-sectional elements, roadside features, and spatial characteristics. To account for structured heterogeneities resulting from multiple observations within a site and other unobserved heterogeneities, the study applied a random parameters negative binomial model. Results suggest that rainfall during the crash is positively associated with SV crashes, but real-time visibility is negatively associated. The presence of a road shoulder, particularly a bitumen shoulder or wider shoulders, along mountainous highways is associated with less SV crashes. While speeding along downgrade slopes increases the likelihood of SV crashes, proper delineation decreases the likelihood. Findings of this study have significant implications for designing safer highways in mountainous areas, particularly in the context of a developing country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Model Comparison for Count Data with a Positively Skewed Distribution with an Application to the Number of University Mathematics Courses Completed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liou, Pey-Yan

2009-01-01

The current study examines three regression models: OLS (ordinary least square) linear regression, Poisson regression, and negative binomial regression for analyzing count data. Simulation results show that the OLS regression model performed better than the others, since it did not produce more false statistically significant relationships than…

A Negative Binomial Regression Model for Accuracy Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hung, Lai-Fa

2012-01-01

Rasch used a Poisson model to analyze errors and speed in reading tests. An important property of the Poisson distribution is that the mean and variance are equal. However, in social science research, it is very common for the variance to be greater than the mean (i.e., the data are overdispersed). This study embeds the Rasch model within an…

Which Types of Televised Anti-Tobacco Campaigns Prompt More Quitline Calls from Disadvantaged Groups?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durkin, Sarah J.; Wakefield, Melanie A.; Spittal, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

To examine the efficacy of different types of mass media ads in driving lower socio-economic smokers (SES) to utilize quitlines. This study collected all 33 719 calls to the Victorian quitline in Australia over a 2-year period. Negative binomial regressions examined the relationship between weekly levels of exposure to different types of…

Togetherness among Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes: interpretation through simulation and consequences for malaria transmission.

PubMed

Gaillard, F O; Boudin, C; Chau, N P; Robert, V; Pichon, G

2003-11-01

Previous experimental gametocyte infections of Anopheles arabiensis on 3 volunteers naturally infected with Plasmodium falciparum were conducted in Senegal. They showed that gametocyte counts in the mosquitoes are, like macroparasite intakes, heterogeneous (overdispersed). They followed a negative binomial distribution, the overdispersion coefficient seeming constant (k = 3.1). To try to explain this heterogeneity, we used an individual-based model (IBM), simulating the behaviour of gametocytes in the human blood circulation and their ingestion by mosquitoes. The hypothesis was that there exists a clustering of the gametocytes in the capillaries. From a series of simulations, in the case of clustering the following results were obtained: (i) the distribution of the gametocytes ingested by the mosquitoes followed a negative binomial, (ii) the k coefficient significantly increased with the density of circulating gametocytes. To validate this model result, 2 more experiments were conducted in Cameroon. Pooled experiments showed a distinct density dependency of the k-values. The simulation results and the experimental results were thus in agreement and suggested that an aggregation process at the microscopic level might produce the density-dependent overdispersion at the macroscopic level. Simulations also suggested that the clustering of gametocytes might facilitate fertilization of gametes.

Co-Infestation and Spatial Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and Anastrepha spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Common Guava in the Eastern Amazon

PubMed Central

Deus, E. G.; Godoy, W. A. C.; Sousa, M. S. M.; Lopes, G. N.; Jesus-Barros, C. R.; Silva, J. G.; Adaime, R.

2016-01-01

Field infestation and spatial distribution of introduced Bactrocera carambolae Drew and Hancock and native species of Anastrepha in common guavas [Psidium guajava (L.)] were investigated in the eastern Amazon. Fruit sampling was carried out in the municipalities of Calçoene and Oiapoque in the state of Amapá, Brazil. The frequency distribution of larvae in fruit was fitted to the negative binomial distribution. Anastrepha striata was more abundant in both sampled areas in comparison to Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann) and B. carambolae. The frequency distribution analysis of adults revealed an aggregated pattern for B. carambolae as well as for A. fraterculus and Anastrepha striata Schiner, described by the negative binomial distribution. Although the populations of Anastrepha spp. may have suffered some impact due to the presence of B. carambolae, the results are still not robust enough to indicate effective reduction in the abundance of Anastrepha spp. caused by B. carambolae in a general sense. The high degree of aggregation observed for both species suggests interspecific co-occurrence with the simultaneous presence of both species in the analysed fruit. Moreover, a significant fraction of uninfested guavas also indicated absence of competitive displacement. PMID:27638949

A Time Series Analysis: Weather Factors, Human Migration and Malaria Cases in Endemic Area of Purworejo, Indonesia, 2005–2014

PubMed Central

REJEKI, Dwi Sarwani Sri; NURHAYATI, Nunung; AJI, Budi; MURHANDARWATI, E. Elsa Herdiana; KUSNANTO, Hari

2018-01-01

Background: Climatic and weather factors become important determinants of vector-borne diseases transmission like malaria. This study aimed to prove relationships between weather factors with considering human migration and previous case findings and malaria cases in endemic areas in Purworejo during 2005–2014. Methods: This study employed ecological time series analysis by using monthly data. The independent variables were the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation, human migration, and previous malaria cases, while the dependent variable was positive malaria cases. Three models of count data regression analysis i.e. Poisson model, quasi-Poisson model, and negative binomial model were applied to measure the relationship. The least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) value was also performed to find the best model. Negative binomial regression analysis was considered as the best model. Results: The model showed that humidity (lag 2), precipitation (lag 3), precipitation (lag 12), migration (lag1) and previous malaria cases (lag 12) had a significant relationship with malaria cases. Conclusion: Weather, migration and previous malaria cases factors need to be considered as prominent indicators for the increase of malaria case projection. PMID:29900134

Stochasticity in numerical solutions of the nonlinear Schroedinger equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Mei-Mei; Nicholson, D. R.

1987-01-01

The cubically nonlinear Schroedinger equation is an important model of nonlinear phenomena in fluids and plasmas. Numerical solutions in a spatially periodic system commonly involve truncation to a finite number of Fourier modes. These solutions are found to be stochastic in the sense that the largest Liapunov exponent is positive. As the number of modes is increased, the size of this exponent appears to converge to zero, in agreement with the recent demonstration of the integrability of the spatially periodic case.

A Short Isoform of Human Cytomegalovirus US3 Functions as a Dominant Negative Inhibitor of the Full-Length Form

PubMed Central

Shin, Jinwook; Park, Boyoun; Lee, Sungwook; Kim, Youngkyun; Biegalke, Bonita J.; Kang, Seongman; Ahn, Kwangseog

2006-01-01

Human cytomegalovirus encodes four unique short (US) region proteins, each of which is independently sufficient for causing the down-regulation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules on the cell surface. This down-regulation enables infected cells to evade recognition by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) but makes them vulnerable to lysis by natural killer (NK) cells, which lyse those cells that lack MHC class I molecules. The 22-kDa US3 glycoprotein is able to down-regulate the surface expression of MHC class I molecules by dual mechanisms: direct endoplasmic reticulum retention by physical association and/or tapasin inhibition. The alternative splicing of the US3 gene generates two additional products, including 17-kDa and 3.5-kDa truncated isoforms; however, the functional significance of these isoforms during viral infection is unknown. Here, we describe a novel mode of self-regulation of US3 function that uses the endogenously produced truncated isoform. The truncated isoform itself neither binds to MHC class I molecules nor prevents the full-length US3 from interacting with MHC class I molecules. Instead, the truncated isoform associates with tapasin and competes with full-length US3 for binding to tapasin; thus, it suppresses the action of US3 that causes the disruption of the function of tapasin. Our results indicate that the truncated isoform of the US3 locus acts as a dominant negative regulator of full-length US3 activity. These data reflect the manner in which the virus has developed temporal survival strategies during viral infection against immune surveillance involving both CTLs and NK cells. PMID:16699020

A short isoform of human cytomegalovirus US3 functions as a dominant negative inhibitor of the full-length form.

PubMed

Shin, Jinwook; Park, Boyoun; Lee, Sungwook; Kim, Youngkyun; Biegalke, Bonita J; Kang, Seongman; Ahn, Kwangseog

2006-06-01

Human cytomegalovirus encodes four unique short (US) region proteins, each of which is independently sufficient for causing the down-regulation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules on the cell surface. This down-regulation enables infected cells to evade recognition by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) but makes them vulnerable to lysis by natural killer (NK) cells, which lyse those cells that lack MHC class I molecules. The 22-kDa US3 glycoprotein is able to down-regulate the surface expression of MHC class I molecules by dual mechanisms: direct endoplasmic reticulum retention by physical association and/or tapasin inhibition. The alternative splicing of the US3 gene generates two additional products, including 17-kDa and 3.5-kDa truncated isoforms; however, the functional significance of these isoforms during viral infection is unknown. Here, we describe a novel mode of self-regulation of US3 function that uses the endogenously produced truncated isoform. The truncated isoform itself neither binds to MHC class I molecules nor prevents the full-length US3 from interacting with MHC class I molecules. Instead, the truncated isoform associates with tapasin and competes with full-length US3 for binding to tapasin; thus, it suppresses the action of US3 that causes the disruption of the function of tapasin. Our results indicate that the truncated isoform of the US3 locus acts as a dominant negative regulator of full-length US3 activity. These data reflect the manner in which the virus has developed temporal survival strategies during viral infection against immune surveillance involving both CTLs and NK cells.

Impact of Illness Management and Recovery Programs on Hospital and Emergency Room Use by Medicaid Enrollees

PubMed Central

Salyers, Michelle P.; Rollins, Angela L.; Clendenning, Daniel; McGuire, Alan B.; Kim, Edward

2011-01-01

Objective Illness management and recovery is a structured program that helps consumers with severe mental illness learn effective ways to manage illness and pursue recovery goals. This study examined the impact of the program on health service utilization. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of five assertive community treatment (ACT) teams in Indiana that implemented illness management and recovery. With Medicaid claims data from July 1, 2003, to June 30, 2008, panel data were created with person-months as the level of analysis, resulting in 14,261 observations, for a total of 498 unique individuals. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to predict hospitalization days and emergency room visits, including covariates of demographic characteristics, employment status, psychiatric diagnosis, and concurrent substance use disorder. The main predictor variables of interest were receipt of illness management and recovery services, dropout from the program, and program graduation status. Results Consumers who received some illness management and recovery services had fewer hospitalization days than those receiving only ACT. Graduates had fewer emergency room visits than did ACT-only consumers. Conclusions This is the first study to examine the impact of illness management and recovery on service utilization. Controlling for a number of background variables, the study showed that illness management and recovery programs were associated with reduced inpatient hospitalization and emergency room use over and above ACT. PMID:21532077

Food Insecurity and Health Care Expenditures in the United States, 2011-2013.

PubMed

Berkowitz, Seth A; Basu, Sanjay; Meigs, James B; Seligman, Hilary K

2018-06-01

To determine whether food insecurity, limited or uncertain food access owing to cost, is associated with greater health care expenditures. Nationally representative sample of the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the United States (2011 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS] linked to 2012-2013 Medication Expenditure Panel Survey [MEPS]). Longitudinal retrospective cohort. A total of 16,663 individuals underwent assessment of food insecurity, using the 10-item adult 30-day food security module, in the 2011 NHIS. Their total health care expenditures in 2012 and 2013 were recorded in MEPS. Expenditure data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression and adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, income, insurance, and residence area. Fourteen percent of individuals reported food insecurity, representing 41,616,255 Americans. Mean annualized total expenditures were $4,113 (standard error $115); 9.2 percent of all individuals had no health care expenditures. In multivariable analyses, those with food insecurity had significantly greater estimated mean annualized health care expenditures ($6,072 vs. $4,208, p < .0001), an extra $1,863 in health care expenditure per year, or $77.5 billion in additional health care expenditure annually. Food insecurity was associated with greater subsequent health care expenditures. Future studies should determine whether food insecurity interventions can improve health and reduce health care costs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Intimate partner violence and women's economic and non-economic activities in Minya, Egypt.

PubMed

Yount, Kathryn M; Zureick-Brown, Sarah; salem, Rania

2014-06-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is widespread, but its implications for their economic and non-economic activities are understudied. Leveraging new data from 564 ever-married women aged 22–65 in rural Minya, Egypt, we estimated logistic regressions and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions to test spillover, compensation, and patriarchal bargaining theories about the influences of women's exposure to IPV on their engagement in and time spent on market, subsistence, domestic, and care work. Supporting compensation theory, exposures to lifetime, recent, and chronic physical or sexual IPV were associated with higher adjusted odds of performing market work in the prior month, and exposures to recent and chronic IPV were associated with higher adjusted odds of performing subsistence work in this period. Supporting compensation and patriarchal bargaining theories, exposures to recent and chronic IPV were associated with more time spent on domestic work in the prior day. Supporting spillover and patriarchal bargaining theories, exposures to lifetime IPV of all forms were associated with lower adjusted odds of performing mostly nonspousal care work in the prior day, and this association was partially mediated by women's generalized anxiety. Women in rural Minya who are exposed to IPV may escalate their housework to fulfill local norms of feminine domesticity while substituting economic activities for nonspousal care work to enhance their economic independence from violent partners.

Modelling the transmission of Echinococcus granulosus in dogs in the northwest and in the southwest of Morocco.

PubMed

Azlaf, Rkia; Dakkak, Allal; Chentoufi, Abdelaziz; El Berrahmani, Mokhtar

2007-04-30

Echinococcus granulosus (E. granulosus) infection was studied in 151 dogs in two regions of Morocco: 68 dogs in the northwest (Loukkos) and 83 dogs in the southwest (Tiznit). The mean prevalence rates of echinococcosis in dogs were 58.82% (46.23-70.63%) in Loukkos and 55.42% (44.10-66.34%) in Tiznit and the mean abundances of E. granulosus per dog were 75 (59-93) and 547 (504-595), respectively. The mean abundance of E. granulosus in dogs was fitted to a negative binomial distribution by the maximum likelihood techniques to define parameters. E. granulosus was aggregated in dogs in the two regions. The prevalence of infection and the abundance of E. granulosus in dogs were fitted to mathematical models in order to determine if the parasite population is partly regulated by definitive host immunity. The best fit was obtained with the models assuming the presence of immunity. The mean time of exposure to infection was similar in the two regions and ranged from 8 months to about 2 years. The infection pressures (number of E. granulosus) obtained per dog each year were 65 (8-294) in Loukkos and 476 (316-886) in Tiznit. The proportion of dogs susceptible to infection was still high along the life of the dogs in Loukkos, while it was not different from zero in old dogs of Tiznit.

Is there an Appalachian disparity in dental caries in Pennsylvania schoolchildren?

PubMed

Polk, Deborah E; Kim, Sunghee; Manz, Michael; Weyant, Robert J

2015-02-01

To determine whether there is an Appalachian disparity in caries prevalence or extent in children living in Pennsylvania. We conducted a cross-sectional clinical assessment of caries in a sample representing 1st, 3rd, 9th, and 11th grade students across Pennsylvania. We used logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression controlling for age to examine the association of residence in an Appalachian county with caries prevalence and extent in the primary and permanent dentitions. Compared with children living outside Appalachia, more children living in Appalachia had a dft >0 (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.07-1.76) and more had a DMFT >0 (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.06-1.64). In addition, compared with children living outside Appalachia, children living in Appalachia had a greater primary but not permanent caries extent (IRR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.01-1.19). We found Appalachian disparities in caries prevalence in both the primary and permanent dentitions and an Appalachian disparity in caries extent in the primary dentition. None of the disparities was moderated by age. This suggests that the search for the mechanism or mechanisms for the Appalachian disparities should focus on differential exposures to risk factors occurring prior to and at the start of elementary school. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mental illness in bariatric surgery: A cohort study from the PORTAL network.

PubMed

Fisher, David; Coleman, Karen J; Arterburn, David E; Fischer, Heidi; Yamamoto, Ayae; Young, Deborah R; Sherwood, Nancy E; Trinacty, Connie Mah; Lewis, Kristina H

2017-05-01

To compare bariatric surgery outcomes according to preoperative mental illness category. Electronic health record data from several US healthcare systems were used to compare outcomes of four groups of patients who underwent bariatric surgery in 2012 and 2013. These included the following: people with (1) no mental illness, (2) mild-to-moderate depression or anxiety, (3) severe depression or anxiety, and (4) bipolar, psychosis, or schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Groups were compared on weight loss trajectory using generalized estimating equations using B-spline bases and on all-cause emergency department visits and hospital days using zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial regression up to 2 years after surgery. Models were adjusted for demographic and health covariates, including baseline healthcare use. Among 8,192 patients, mean age was 44.3 (10.7) years, 79.9% were female, and 45.6% were white. Fifty-seven percent had preoperative mental illness. There were no differences between groups for weight loss, but patients with preoperative severe depression or anxiety or bipolar, psychosis, or schizophrenia spectrum disorders had higher follow-up levels of emergency department visits and hospital days compared to those with no mental illness. In this multicenter study, mental illness was not associated with differential weight loss after bariatric surgery, but additional research could focus on reducing acute care use among these patients. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Serious psychological distress as a barrier to dental care in community-dwelling adults in the United States.

PubMed

Xiang, Xiaoling; Lee, Wonik; Kang, Sung-wan

2015-01-01

To examine whether serious psychological distress (SPD), a nonspecific indicator of past year mental health problems, was associated with subsequent dental care utilization, dental expenditures, and unmet dental needs. We analyzed data from panel 13 thru 15 of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey -Household Component (n=31,056). SPD was defined as a score of 13 or higher on the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6). Logistic regression, zero-inflated negative binomial model, and generalized linear model (GLM) with a gamma distribution were used to test the study hypotheses. Adults with SPD had, in the subsequent year, 35 percent lower odds of adhering to annual dental checkups and a twofold increase in the odds of having unmet dental needs. Although adults with SPD did not have significantly more dental visits than those without SPD, they spent 20 percent more on dental care. SPD was a modest independent risk factor for lack of subsequent preventive dental care, greater unmet dental needs, and greater dental expenditures. In addition to expanding adult dental coverage, it is important to develop and evaluate interventions to increase the utilization of dental care particularly preventive dental services among people with mental illness in order to improve oral health and reduce dental expenditures among this vulnerable population. © 2014 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Workplace mistreatment and sickness absenteeism from work: results from the 2010 National Health Interview survey.

PubMed

Asfaw, Abay G; Chang, Chia C; Ray, Tapas K

2014-02-01

This study examined the association between workplace mistreatment and occurrence, duration, and costs of sickness absenteeism. We used the 2010 National Health Interview Survey and considered 13,807 employed adult respondents. We used a zero-inflated negative binomial (zinb) model to examine the association between exposure to workplace mistreatment and the occurrence and number of workdays missed due to illness/injury in the preceding 12 months. In 2010, 7.6% of US workers employed at the time of the survey reported having been mistreated at their workplace. Both occurrence and duration of sickness absence were higher for mistreated than for non-mistreated workers. The zinb results showed that being mistreated was associated with a 42% increase in the number of missed workdays, controlling for covariates. The marginal effect analysis showed that lost workdays differed by 2.45 days between mistreated and non-mistreated workers. This implies that workplace mistreatment was associated with $4.1 billion, or 5.5%, of sickness absenteeism costs in 2010. Workplace mistreatment is associated with sickness absence in the United States. While a causal relationship could not be established due to the cross-sectional design of the study, this study reveals the economic importance of developing workplace mistreatment prevention strategies. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Impact of Modality Choice on Rates of Hospitalization in Patients Eligible for Both Peritoneal Dialysis and Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Quinn, Robert R.; Ravani, Pietro; Zhang, Xin; Garg, Amit X.; Blake, Peter G.; Austin, Peter C.; Zacharias, James M.; Johnson, John F.; Pandeya, Sanjay; Verrelli, Mauro; Oliver, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

♦ Background: Hospitalization rates are a relevant consideration when choosing or recommending a dialysis modality. Previous comparisons of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and hemodialysis (HD) have not been restricted to individuals who were eligible for both therapies. ♦ Methods: We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of people 18 years of age and older who were eligible for both PD and HD, and who started outpatient dialysis between 2007 and 2010 in four Canadian dialysis programs. Zero-inflated negative binomial models, adjusted for baseline patient characteristics, were used to examine the association between modality choice and rates of hospitalization. ♦ Results: The study enrolled 314 patients. A trend in the HD group toward higher rates of hospitalization, observed in the primary analysis, became significant when modality was treated as a time-varying exposure or when the population was restricted to elective outpatient starts in patients with at least 4 months of pre-dialysis care. Cardiovascular disease, infectious complications, and elective surgery were the most common reasons for hospital admission; only 23% of hospital stays were directly related to complications of dialysis or kidney disease. ♦ Conclusions: Efforts to promote PD utilization are unlikely to result in increased rates of hospitalization, and efforts to reduce hospital admissions should focus on potentially avoidable causes of cardiovascular disease and infectious complications. PMID:24525596

The epipelagic fish community of Beaufort Sea coastal waters, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarvela, L.E.; Thorsteinson, L.K.

1999-01-01

A three-year study of epipelagic fishes inhabiting Beaufort Sea coastal waters in Alaska documented spatial and temporal patterns in fish distribution and abundance and examined their relationships to thermohaline features during summer. Significant interannual, seasonal, and geographical differences in surface water temperatures and salinities were observed. In 1990, sea ice was absent and marine conditions prevailed, whereas in 1988 and 1991, heavy pack ice was present and the dissolution of the brackish water mass along the coast proceeded more slowly. Arctic cod, capelin, and liparids were the most abundant marine fishes in the catches, while arctic cisco was the only abundant diadromous freshwater species. Age-0 arctic cod were exceptionally abundant and large in 1990, while age-0 capelin dominated in the other years. The alternating numerical dominances of arctic cod and age-0 capelin may represent differing species' responses to wind-driven oceanographic processes affecting growth and survival. The only captures of age-0 arctic cisco occurred during 1990. Catch patterns indicate they use a broad coastal migratory corridor and tolerate high salinities. As in the oceanographic data, geographical anti temporal patterns were apparent in the fish catch data, but in most cases these patterns were not statistically testable because of excessive zero catches. The negative binomial distribution appeared to be a suitable statistical descriptor of the aggregated catch patterns for the more common species.

Is There an Appalachian Disparity in Dental Caries in Pennsylvania Schoolchildren?

PubMed Central

Polk, Deborah E.; Kim, Sunghee; Manz, Michael; Weyant, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Objectives To determine whether there is an Appalachian disparity in caries prevalence or extent in children living in Pennsylvania. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional clinical assessment of caries in a sample representing 1st, 3rd, 9th, and 11th grade students across Pennsylvania. We used logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression controlling for age to examine the association of residence in an Appalachian county with caries prevalence and extent in the primary and permanent dentitions. Results Compared with children living outside Appalachia, more children living in Appalachia had a dft > 0 (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.07 – 1.76) and more had a DMFT > 0 (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.06 – 1.64). In addition, compared with children living outside Appalachia, children living in Appalachia had a greater primary but not permanent caries extent (IRR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.01 – 1.19). Conclusions We found Appalachian disparities in caries prevalence in both the primary and permanent dentitions and an Appalachian disparity in caries extent in the primary dentition. None of the disparities was moderated by age. This suggests that the search for the mechanism or mechanisms for the Appalachian disparities should focus on differential exposures to risk factors occurring prior to and at the start of elementary school. PMID:25470650

Associations with Unprotected Sexual Behavior Among HIV-Infected Drinkers in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Papas, Rebecca K; Gakinya, Benson N; Mwaniki, Michael M; Wu, Xiaotian K; Lee, Hana; Martino, Steve; Klein, Debra A; Sidle, John E; Loxley, Michelle P; Keter, Alfred K; Baliddawa, Joyce B; Maisto, Stephen A

2018-05-16

Approximately 71% of HIV-infected individuals live in sub-Saharan Africa. Alcohol use increases unprotected sex, which can lead to HIV transmission. Little research examines risky sex among HIV-infected individuals in East Africa who are not sex workers. The study purpose was to examine associations with unprotected sex in a high-risk sample of 507 HIV-infected sexually active drinkers in western Kenya. They were enrolled in a trial to reduce alcohol use. Past-month baseline alcohol use and sexual behavior were assessed using the Timeline Followback. A zero-inflated negative binomial model examined associations with occurrence and frequency of unprotected sex. Results showed heavy drinking days were significantly associated with unprotected sex occurrence across gender, and with unprotected sex frequency among women. Among women, transactional sex, alcohol-related sexual expectations, condom use self-efficacy, drinking-and-protected-sex days and age were associated with unprotected sex occurrence while alcohol-related sexual expectations, depressive symptoms and condom use self-efficacy were associated with unprotected sex frequency. Among men, alcohol-related sexual expectations, condom use self-efficacy, and age were associated with unprotected sex occurrence, while drinking-and-protected-sex days were associated with unprotected sex occurrence and frequency. Findings suggest robust relationships between heavy drinking and unprotected sex. Further research is needed elucidating the temporal relationships between drinking and unprotected sex in this population.

The Price of Sex: Condom Use and the Determinants of the Price of Sex Among Female Sex Workers in Eastern Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Elmes, Jocelyn; Nhongo, Kundai; Ward, Helen; Hallett, Timothy; Nyamukapa, Constance; White, Peter J.; Gregson, Simon

2014-01-01

Background. Higher prices for unprotected sex threaten the high levels of condom use that contributed to the decline in Zimbabwe's human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. To improve understanding of financial pressures competing against safer sex, we explore factors associated with the price of commercial sex in rural eastern Zimbabwe. Methods. We collected and analyzed cross-sectional data on 311 women, recruited during October–December 2010, who reported that they received payment for their most-recent or second-most-recent sex acts in the past year. Zero-inflated negative binomial models with robust standard errors clustered on female sex worker (FSW) were used to explore social and behavioral determinants of price. Results. The median price of sex was $10 (interquartile range [IQR], $5–$20) per night and $10 (IQR, $5–$15) per act. Amounts paid in cash and commodities did not differ significantly. At the most-recent sex act, more-educated FSWs received 30%–74% higher payments. Client requests for condom use significantly predicted protected sex (P < .01), but clients paid on average 42.9% more for unprotected sex. Conclusions. Within a work environment where clients' preferences determine condom use, FSWs effectively use their individual capital to negotiate the terms of condom use. Strengthening FSWs' preferences for protected sex could help maintain high levels of condom use. PMID:25381377

Impact of early childhood caries on oral health-related quality of life of preschool children.

PubMed

Li, M Y; Zhi, Q H; Zhou, Y; Qiu, R M; Lin, H C

2015-03-01

Child oral health-related quality of life (COHRQoL) has been assessed in developed areas; however, it remains unstudied in mainland China. Studies on COHRQoL would benefit a large number of children in China suffering from oral health problems such as dental caries. This study explored the relationship between COHRQoL and early childhood caries, adjusted by socioeconomic factors, in 3- to 4-year-old children in a region of southern China. In this study, 1062 children aged 3-4 years were recruited by cluster sampling and their oral health statuses were examined by a trained dentist. The Chinese version of the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS) and questions about the children's socioeconomic conditions were completed by the children's parents. A negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess the prevalence of early childhood caries among the children and its influence on COHRQoL. The total ECOHIS scores of the returned scale sets ranged from 0 to 31, and their average scores was 3.1±5.1. The negative binomial analysis showed that the dmfs indices were significantly associated with the ECOHIS score and subscale scores (P<0.05). The multivariate adjusted model showed that a higher dmft index was associated with greater negative impact on COHRQoL (RR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.07, 1.13; P < 0.05). However, demographic and socioeconomic factors were not associated with COHRQoL (P>0.05). The severity of early childhood caries has a negative impact on the oral health-related quality of life of preschool children and their parents.

Deconstructing zero: resurgence, supersymmetry and complex saddles

DOE PAGES

Dunne, Gerald V.; Ünsal, Mithat

2016-12-01

We explain how a vanishing, or truncated, perturbative expansion, such as often arises in semi-classically tractable supersymmetric theories, can nevertheless be related to fluctuations about non-perturbative sectors via resurgence. We also demonstrate that, in the same class of theories, the vanishing of the ground state energy (unbroken supersymmetry) can be attributed to the cancellation between a real saddle and a complex saddle (with hidden topological angle π), and positivity of the ground state energy (broken supersymmetry) can be interpreted as the dominance of complex saddles. In either case, despite the fact that the ground state energy is zero to allmore » orders in perturbation theory, all orders of fluctuations around non-perturbative saddles are encoded in the perturbative E (N, g). Finally, we illustrate these ideas with examples from supersymmetric quantum mechanics and quantum field theory.« less

Particle-in-cell study of the ion-to-electron sheath transition

DOE PAGES

Scheiner, Brett; Baalrud, Scott D.; Hopkins, Matthew M.; ...

2016-08-09

The form of a sheath near a small electrode, with bias changing from below to above the plasma potential, is studied using 2D particle-in-cell simulations. When the electrode is biased within T e/2 e below the plasma potential, the electron velocity distribution functions (EVDFs) exhibit a loss-cone type truncation due to fast electrons overcoming the small potential difference between the electrode and plasma. No sheath is present in this regime, and the plasma remains quasineutral up to the electrode. The EVDF truncation leads to a presheath-like density and flow velocity gradients. Once the bias exceeds the plasma potential, an electronmore » sheath is present. In this case, the truncation driven behavior persists, but is accompanied by a shift in the maximum value of the EVDF that is not present in the negative bias cases. In conclusion, the flow moment has significant contributions from both the flow shift of the EVDF maximum, and the loss-cone truncation.« less

Renormalization group scale-setting from the action—a road to modified gravity theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domazet, Silvije; Štefančić, Hrvoje

2012-12-01

The renormalization group (RG) corrected gravitational action in Einstein-Hilbert and other truncations is considered. The running scale of the RG is treated as a scalar field at the level of the action and determined in a scale-setting procedure recently introduced by Koch and Ramirez for the Einstein-Hilbert truncation. The scale-setting procedure is elaborated for other truncations of the gravitational action and applied to several phenomenologically interesting cases. It is shown how the logarithmic dependence of the Newton's coupling on the RG scale leads to exponentially suppressed effective cosmological constant and how the scale-setting in particular RG-corrected gravitational theories yields the effective f(R) modified gravity theories with negative powers of the Ricci scalar R. The scale-setting at the level of the action at the non-Gaussian fixed point in Einstein-Hilbert and more general truncations is shown to lead to universal effective action quadratic in the Ricci tensor.

CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

Do Barriers to Crime Prevention Moderate the Effects of Situational Crime Prevention Policies on Violent Crime in High Schools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sevigny, Eric L.; Zhang, Gary

2018-01-01

This study investigates how barriers to school-based crime prevention programming moderate the effects of situational crime prevention (SCP) policies on levels of violent crime in U.S. public high schools. Using data from the 2008 School Survey on Crime and Safety, we estimate a series of negative binomial regression models with interactions to…

Predictive accuracy of particle filtering in dynamic models supporting outbreak projections.

PubMed

Safarishahrbijari, Anahita; Teyhouee, Aydin; Waldner, Cheryl; Liu, Juxin; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2017-09-26

While a new generation of computational statistics algorithms and availability of data streams raises the potential for recurrently regrounding dynamic models with incoming observations, the effectiveness of such arrangements can be highly subject to specifics of the configuration (e.g., frequency of sampling and representation of behaviour change), and there has been little attempt to identify effective configurations. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering, we explored a solution focusing on creating quickly formulated models regrounded automatically and recurrently as new data becomes available. Given a latent underlying case count, we assumed that observed incident case counts followed a negative binomial distribution. In accordance with the condensation algorithm, each such observation led to updating of particle weights. We evaluated the effectiveness of various particle filtering configurations against each other and against an approach without particle filtering according to the accuracy of the model in predicting future prevalence, given data to a certain point and a norm-based discrepancy metric. We examined the effectiveness of particle filtering under varying times between observations, negative binomial dispersion parameters, and rates with which the contact rate could evolve. We observed that more frequent observations of empirical data yielded super-linearly improved accuracy in model predictions. We further found that for the data studied here, the most favourable assumptions to make regarding the parameters associated with the negative binomial distribution and changes in contact rate were robust across observation frequency and the observation point in the outbreak. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering can perform well in projecting future evolution of an outbreak. Most importantly, the remarkable improvements in predictive accuracy resulting from more frequent sampling suggest that investments to achieve efficient reporting mechanisms may be more than paid back by improved planning capacity. The robustness of the results on particle filter configuration in this case study suggests that it may be possible to formulate effective standard guidelines and regularized approaches for such techniques in particular epidemiological contexts. Most importantly, the work tentatively suggests potential for health decision makers to secure strong guidance when anticipating outbreak evolution for emerging infectious diseases by combining even very rough models with particle filtering method.

Household Implementation of Smoke-Free Rules in Homes and Cars: A Focus on Adolescent Smoking Behavior and Secondhand Smoke Exposure.

PubMed

Parks, Michael J; Kingsbury, John H; Boyle, Raymond G; Evered, Sharrilyn

2018-01-01

This study addresses the dearth of population-based research on how comprehensive household smoke-free rules (ie, in the home and car) relate to tobacco use and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among adolescents. Analysis of 2014 Minnesota Youth Tobacco Survey. Representative sample of Minnesota youth. A total of 1287 youth who lived with a smoker. Measures included household smoke-free rules (no rules, partial rules-home or car, but not both-and comprehensive rules), lifetime and 30-day cigarette use, 30-day cigarette and other product use, and SHS exposure in past 7 days in home and car. Weighted multivariate logistic, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were used. Compared to comprehensive rules, partial and no smoke-free rules were significantly and positively related to lifetime cigarette use (respectively, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24-2.61; AOR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.93-4.25), and a similar significant pattern was found for 30-day cigarette use (respectively, AOR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.21-4.02; AOR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.34-4.50). No smoke-free rules significantly predicted using cigarettes and other tobacco products compared to comprehensive rules. In both descriptive and regression analyses, we found SHS exposure rates in both the home and car were significantly lower among youth whose household implemented comprehensive smoke-free rules. Comprehensive smoke-free rules protect youth from the harms of caregiver tobacco use. Relative to both partial and no smoke-free rules, comprehensive smoke-free rules have a marked impact on tobacco use and SHS exposure among youth who live with a smoker. Health promotion efforts should promote comprehensive smoke-free rules among all households and particularly households with children and adolescents.

Emergence of a new S U (4 ) symmetry in the baryon spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denissenya, M.; Glozman, L. Ya.; Pak, M.

2015-10-01

Recently, a large degeneracy of J =1 mesons—that is, larger than the S U (2 )L×S U (2 )R×U (1 )A symmetry of the QCD Lagrangian—has been discovered upon truncation of the near-zero modes from the valence quark propagators. It has been found that this degeneracy represents the S U (4 ) group that includes the chiral rotations as well as the mixing of left- and right-handed quarks. This symmetry group turns out to be a symmetry of confinement in QCD. Consequently, one expects that the same symmetry should persist upon the near-zero mode removal in other hadron sectors as well. It has been shown that indeed the J =2 mesons follow the same symmetry pattern upon the low-lying mode elimination. Here we demonstrate the S U (4 ) symmetry of baryons once the near-zero modes are removed from the quark propagators. We also show a degeneracy of states belonging to different irreducible representations of S U (4 ). This implies a larger symmetry that includes S U (4 ) as a subgroup.

Study of optical reflectance properties in 1D annular photonic crystal containing double negative (DNG) metamaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Sanjeev K.; Aghajamali, Alireza

2016-05-01

Theoretical investigation of photonic band gaps or reflection bands in one-dimensional annular photonic crystal (APC) containing double negative (DNG) metamaterials and air has been presented. The proposed structure consists of the alternate layers of dispersive DNG material and air immersed in free space. In order to study photonic band gaps we obtain the reflectance spectrum of the annular PC by employing the transfer matrix method (TMM) in the cylindrical waves for both TE and TM polarizations. In this work we study the effect of azimuthal mode number (m) and starting radius (ρ0) on the three band gaps viz. zero averaged refractive index (zero-nbar) gap, zero permittivity (zero- ε) and zero permeability (zero- μ) gaps. It is found that for m ≥ 1 , zero- μ gap appears in TE mode and zero- ε gap appears in TM mode. The width of both zero- μ and zero- ε gap increases by increasing m values, but the enhancement of zero- μ gap is more appreciable. Also, the effect of ρ0 on the three band gaps (reflection bands) of annular PC structure at the given m-number has been studied, for both TE and TM polarizations. The result shows that in both polarizations zero- ε and zero- μ gaps decreases when ρ0 increases, whereas zero-nbar gap remains invariant.

Weibull mixture regression for marginal inference in zero-heavy continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Gebregziabher, Mulugeta; Voronca, Delia; Teklehaimanot, Abeba; Santa Ana, Elizabeth J

2017-06-01

Continuous outcomes with preponderance of zero values are ubiquitous in data that arise from biomedical studies, for example studies of addictive disorders. This is known to lead to violation of standard assumptions in parametric inference and enhances the risk of misleading conclusions unless managed properly. Two-part models are commonly used to deal with this problem. However, standard two-part models have limitations with respect to obtaining parameter estimates that have marginal interpretation of covariate effects which are important in many biomedical applications. Recently marginalized two-part models are proposed but their development is limited to log-normal and log-skew-normal distributions. Thus, in this paper, we propose a finite mixture approach, with Weibull mixture regression as a special case, to deal with the problem. We use extensive simulation study to assess the performance of the proposed model in finite samples and to make comparisons with other family of models via statistical information and mean squared error criteria. We demonstrate its application on real data from a randomized controlled trial of addictive disorders. Our results show that a two-component Weibull mixture model is preferred for modeling zero-heavy continuous data when the non-zero part are simulated from Weibull or similar distributions such as Gamma or truncated Gauss.

Not in My Back Yard: A Comparative Analysis of Crime Around Publicly Funded Drug Treatment Centers, Liquor Stores, Convenience Stores, and Corner Stores in One Mid-Atlantic City.

PubMed

Furr-Holden, C Debra M; Milam, Adam J; Nesoff, Elizabeth D; Johnson, Renee M; Fakunle, David O; Jennings, Jacky M; Thorpe, Roland J

2016-01-01

This research examined whether publicly funded drug treatment centers (DTCs) were associated with violent crime in excess of the violence happening around other commercial businesses. Violent crime data and locations of community entities were geocoded and mapped. DTCs and other retail outlets were matched based on a Neighborhood Disadvantage score at the census tract level. Street network buffers ranging from 100 to 1,400 feet were placed around each location. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the count of violent crimes and the distance from each business type. Compared with the mean count of violent crime around drug treatment centers, the mean count of violent crime (M = 2.87) was significantly higher around liquor stores (M = 3.98; t test; p < .01) and corner stores (M = 3.78; t test; p < .01), and there was no statistically significant difference between the count around convenience stores (M = 2.65; t test; p = .32). In the adjusted negative binomial regression models, there was a negative and significant relationship between the count of violent crime and the distance from drug treatment centers (β = -.069, p < .01), liquor stores (β = -.081, p < .01), corner stores (β = -.116, p < .01), and convenience stores (β = -.154, p < .01). Violent crime associated with drug treatment centers is similar to that associated with liquor stores and is less frequent than that associated with convenience stores and corner stores.

The magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloxham, J.; Gubbins, D.

1985-01-01

Models of the geomagnetic field are, in general, produced from a least-squares fit of the coefficients in a truncated spherical harmonic expansion to the available data. Downward continuation of such models to the core-mantle boundary (CMB) is an unstable process: the results are found to be critically dependent on the choice of truncation level. Modern techniques allow this fundamental difficulty to be circumvented. The method of stochastic inversion is applied to modeling the geomagnetic field. Prior information is introduced by requiring that the spectrum of spherical harmonic coefficients to fall-off in a particular manner which is consistent with the Ohmic heating in the core having a finite lower bound. This results in models with finite errors in the radial field at the CMB. Curves of zero radial field can then be determined and integrals of the radial field over patches on the CMB bounded by these null-flux curves calculated. With the assumption of negligible magnetic diffusion in the core; frozen-flux hypothesis, these integrals are time-invariant.

SU-E-J-174: Adaptive PET-Based Dose Painting with Tomotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darwish, N; Mackie, T; Thomadsen, B

2014-06-01

Purpose: PET imaging can be converted into dose prescription directly. Due to the variability of the intensity of PET the image, PET prescription maybe superior over uniform dose prescription. Furthermore, unlike the case in image reconstruction of not knowing the image solution in advance, the prescribed dose is known from a PET image a priori. Therefore, optimum beam orientations are derivable. Methods: We can assume the PET image to be the prescribed dose and invert it to determine the energy fluence. The same method used to reconstruct tissue images from projections could be used to solve the inverse problem ofmore » determining beam orientations and modulation patterns from a dose prescription [10]. Unlike standard tomographic reconstruction of images from measured projection profiles, the inversion of the prescribed dose results in photon fluence which may be negative and therefore unphysical. Two-dimensional modulated beams can be modelled in terms of the attenuated or exponential radon transform of the prescribed dose function (assumed to be the PET image in this case), an application of a Ram-Lak filter, and inversion by backprojection. Unlike the case in PET processing, however, the filtered beam obtained from the inversion represents a physical photon fluence. Therefore, a positivity constraint for the fluence (setting negative fluence to zero) must be applied (Brahme et al 1982, Bortfeld et al 1990) Results: Truncating the negative profiles from the PET data results in an approximation of the derivable energy fluence. Backprojection of the deliverable fluence is an approximation of the dose delivered. The deliverable dose is comparable to the original PET image and is similar to the PET image. Conclusion: It is possible to use the PET data or image as a direct indicator of deliverable fluence for cylindrical radiotherapy systems such as TomoTherapy.« less

Mesopores induced zero thermal expansion in single-crystal ferroelectrics.

PubMed

Ren, Zhaohui; Zhao, Ruoyu; Chen, Xing; Li, Ming; Li, Xiang; Tian, He; Zhang, Ze; Han, Gaorong

2018-04-24

For many decades, zero thermal expansion materials have been the focus of numerous investigations because of their intriguing physical properties and potential applications in high-precision instruments. Different strategies, such as composites, solid solution and doping, have been developed as promising approaches to obtain zero thermal expansion materials. However, microstructure controlled zero thermal expansion behavior via interface or surface has not been realized. Here we report the observation of an impressive zero thermal expansion (volumetric thermal expansion coefficient, -1.41 × 10 -6  K -1 , 293-623 K) in single-crystal ferroelectric PbTiO 3 fibers with large-scale faceted and enclosed mesopores. The zero thermal expansion behavior is attributed to a synergetic effect of positive thermal expansion near the mesopores due to the oxygen-based polarization screening and negative thermal expansion from an intrinsic ferroelectricity. Our results show that a fascinating surface construction in negative thermal expansion ferroelectric materials could be a promising strategy to realize zero thermal expansion.

Zero Tolerance: Advantages and Disadvantages. Research Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Karen

2009-01-01

What are the positives and negatives of zero tolerance? What should be considered when examining a school's program? Although there are no definitive definitions of zero tolerance, two commonly used ones are as follows: "Zero tolerance means that a school will automatically and severely punish a student for a variety of infractions" (American Bar…

Spiral Galaxy Lensing: A Model with Twist

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Steven R.; Ernst, Brett; Fancher, Sean; Keeton, Charles R.; Komanduru, Abi; Lundberg, Erik

2014-12-01

We propose a single galaxy gravitational lensing model with a mass density that has a spiral structure. Namely, we extend the arcsine gravitational lens (a truncated singular isothermal elliptical model), adding an additional parameter that controls the amount of spiraling in the structure of the mass density. An important feature of our model is that, even though the mass density is sophisticated, we succeed in integrating the deflection term in closed form using a Gauss hypergeometric function. When the spiraling parameter is set to zero, this reduces to the arcsine lens.

Sequential sampling of ribes populations in the control of white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola Fischer) in California

Treesearch

Harold R. Offord

1966-01-01

Sequential sampling based on a negative binomial distribution of ribes populations required less than half the time taken by regular systematic line transect sampling in a comparison test. It gave the same control decision as the regular method in 9 of 13 field trials. A computer program that permits sequential plans to be built readily for other white pine regions is...

Oral health of schoolchildren in Western Australia.

PubMed

Arrow, P

2016-09-01

The West Australian School Dental Service (SDS) provides free, statewide, primary dental care to schoolchildren aged 5-17 years. This study reports on an evaluation of the oral health of children examined during the 2014 calendar year. Children were sampled, based on their date of birth, and SDS clinicians collected the clinical information. Weighted mean values of caries experience were presented. Negative binomial regression modelling was undertaken to test for factors of significance in the rate of caries occurrence. Data from children aged 5-15 years were used (girls = 4616, boys = 4900). Mean dmft (5-10-year-olds), 1.42 SE 0.03; mean DMFT (6-15-year-olds), 0.51 SE 0.01. Negative binomial regression model of permanent tooth caries found higher rates of caries in children who were from non-fluoridated areas (RR 2.1); Aboriginal (RR 2.4); had gingival inflammation (RR 1.5); lower ICSEA level (RR 1.4); and recalled at more than 24-month interval (RR 1.8). The study highlighted poor dental health associated with living in non-fluoridated areas, Aboriginal identity, poor oral hygiene, lower socioeconomic level and having extended intervals between dental checkups. Timely assessments and preventive measures targeted at groups, including extending community water fluoridation, may assist in further improving the oral health of children in Western Australia. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

Characterizing environmental risk factors for West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, using clinical data in humans and serology in pet dogs.

PubMed

Rocheleau, J P; Michel, P; Lindsay, L R; Drebot, M; Dibernardo, A; Ogden, N H; Fortin, A; Arsenault, J

2017-10-01

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

Community covariates of malnutrition based mortality among older adults.

PubMed

Lee, Matthew R; Berthelot, Emily R

2010-05-01

The purpose of this study was to identify community level covariates of malnutrition-based mortality among older adults. A community level framework was delineated which explains rates of malnutrition-related mortality among older adults as a function of community levels of socioeconomic disadvantage, disability, and social isolation among members of this group. County level data on malnutrition mortality of people 65 years of age and older for the period 2000-2003 were drawn from the CDC WONDER system databases. County level measures of older adult socioeconomic disadvantage, disability, and social isolation were derived from the 2000 US Census of Population and Housing. Negative binomial regression models adjusting for the size of the population at risk, racial composition, urbanism, and region were estimated to assess the relationships among these indicators. Results from negative binomial regression analysis yielded the following: a standard deviation increase in socioeconomic/physical disadvantage was associated with a 12% increase in the rate of malnutrition mortality among older adults (p < 0.001), whereas a standard deviation increase in social isolation was associated with a 5% increase in malnutrition mortality among older adults (p < 0.05). Community patterns of malnutrition based mortality among older adults are partly a function of levels of socioeconomic and physical disadvantage and social isolation among older adults. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Goodness-of-fit tests and model diagnostics for negative binomial regression of RNA sequencing data.

PubMed

Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W

2015-01-01

This work is about assessing model adequacy for negative binomial (NB) regression, particularly (1) assessing the adequacy of the NB assumption, and (2) assessing the appropriateness of models for NB dispersion parameters. Tools for the first are appropriate for NB regression generally; those for the second are primarily intended for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data analysis. The typically small number of biological samples and large number of genes in RNA-Seq analysis motivate us to address the trade-offs between robustness and statistical power using NB regression models. One widely-used power-saving strategy, for example, is to assume some commonalities of NB dispersion parameters across genes via simple models relating them to mean expression rates, and many such models have been proposed. As RNA-Seq analysis is becoming ever more popular, it is appropriate to make more thorough investigations into power and robustness of the resulting methods, and into practical tools for model assessment. In this article, we propose simulation-based statistical tests and diagnostic graphics to address model adequacy. We provide simulated and real data examples to illustrate that our proposed methods are effective for detecting the misspecification of the NB mean-variance relationship as well as judging the adequacy of fit of several NB dispersion models.

Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models.

PubMed

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D; Sarran, Christophe

2013-05-01

Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.

Association between adherence to physical activity guidelines and health-related quality of life among individuals with physician-diagnosed arthritis.

PubMed

Austin, Shamly; Qu, Haiyan; Shewchuk, Richard M

2012-10-01

To examine the association between adherence to physical activity guidelines and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among individuals with arthritis. A cross-sectional sample with 33,071 US adults, 45 years or older with physician-diagnosed arthritis was obtained from 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. We conducted negative binomial regression analysis to examine HRQOL as a function of adherence to physical activity guidelines controlling for physicians' recommendations for physical activity, age, sex, race, education, marital status, employment, annual income, health insurance, personal physician, emotional support, body mass index, activity limitations, health status, and co-morbidities based on Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization. Descriptive statistics showed that 60% adults with arthritis did not adhere to physical activity guidelines, mean physically and mentally unhealthy days were 7.7 and 4.4 days, respectively. Results from negative binomial regression indicated that individuals who did not adhere to physical activity guidelines had 1.14 days more physically unhealthy days and 1.12 days more mentally unhealthy days than those who adhered controlling for covariates. Adherence to physical activity is important to improve HRQOL for individuals with arthritis. However, adherence is low among this population. Interventions are required to engage individuals with arthritis in physical activity.

Technical and biological variance structure in mRNA-Seq data: life in the real world

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background mRNA expression data from next generation sequencing platforms is obtained in the form of counts per gene or exon. Counts have classically been assumed to follow a Poisson distribution in which the variance is equal to the mean. The Negative Binomial distribution which allows for over-dispersion, i.e., for the variance to be greater than the mean, is commonly used to model count data as well. Results In mRNA-Seq data from 25 subjects, we found technical variation to generally follow a Poisson distribution as has been reported previously and biological variability was over-dispersed relative to the Poisson model. The mean-variance relationship across all genes was quadratic, in keeping with a Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Over-dispersed Poisson and NB distributional assumptions demonstrated marked improvements in goodness-of-fit (GOF) over the standard Poisson model assumptions, but with evidence of over-fitting in some genes. Modeling of experimental effects improved GOF for high variance genes but increased the over-fitting problem. Conclusions These conclusions will guide development of analytical strategies for accurate modeling of variance structure in these data and sample size determination which in turn will aid in the identification of true biological signals that inform our understanding of biological systems. PMID:22769017

Design and analysis of three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints.

PubMed

Mütze, Tobias; Munk, Axel; Friede, Tim

2016-02-20

A three-arm clinical trial design with an experimental treatment, an active control, and a placebo control, commonly referred to as the gold standard design, enables testing of non-inferiority or superiority of the experimental treatment compared with the active control. In this paper, we propose methods for designing and analyzing three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints. In particular, we develop a Wald-type test with a restricted maximum-likelihood variance estimator for testing non-inferiority or superiority. For this test, sample size and power formulas as well as optimal sample size allocations will be derived. The performance of the proposed test will be assessed in an extensive simulation study with regard to type I error rate, power, sample size, and sample size allocation. For the purpose of comparison, Wald-type statistics with a sample variance estimator and an unrestricted maximum-likelihood estimator are included in the simulation study. We found that the proposed Wald-type test with a restricted variance estimator performed well across the considered scenarios and is therefore recommended for application in clinical trials. The methods proposed are motivated and illustrated by a recent clinical trial in multiple sclerosis. The R package ThreeArmedTrials, which implements the methods discussed in this paper, is available on CRAN. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Progressing Deployment of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwan, Calvin Lee

2011-07-01

This dissertation evaluates the likelihood of solar PV playing a larger role in national and state level renewable energy portfolios. I examine the feasibility of large-scale solar PV arrays on college campuses, the financials associated with large-scale solar PV arrays and finally, the influence of environmental, economic, social and political variables on the distribution of residential solar PV arrays in the United States. Chapter two investigates the challenges and feasibility of college campuses adopting a net-zero energy policy. Using energy consumption data, local solar insolation data and projected campus growth, I present a method to identify the minimum sized solar PV array that is required for the City College campus of the Los Angeles Community College District to achieve net-zero energy status. I document how current energy demand can be reduced using strategic demand side management, with remaining energy demand being met using a solar PV array. Chapter three focuses on the financial feasibility of large-scale solar PV arrays, using the proposed City College campus array as an example. I document that even after demand side energy management initiatives and financial incentives, large-scale solar PV arrays continue to have ROIs greater than 25 years. I find that traditional financial evaluation methods are not suitable for environmental projects such as solar PV installations as externalities are not taken into account and therefore calls for development of alternative financial valuation methods. Chapter four investigates the influence of environmental, social, economic and political variables on the distribution of residential solar PV arrays across the United States using ZIP code level data from the 2000 US Census. Using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Open PV project, I document where residential solar PVs are currently located. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was run to evaluate the influence of selected variables. Using the same model, predicted residential solar PV shares were generated and illustrated using GIS software. The results of this model indicate that solar insolation, state energy deregulation and cost of electricity are statistically significant factors positively correlated with the adoption of residential solar PV arrays. With this information, policymakers at the towns and cities level can establish effective solar PV promoting policies and regulations for their respective locations.

Chiral susceptibility and the scalar Ward identity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, L.; Liu, Y.-X.; Roberts, C. D.

2009-03-01

The chiral susceptibility is given by the scalar vacuum polarization at zero total momentum. This follows directly from the expression for the vacuum quark condensate so long as a nonperturbative symmetry preserving truncation scheme is employed. For QCD in-vacuum the susceptibility can rigorously be defined via a Pauli-Villars regularization procedure. Owing to the scalar Ward identity, irrespective of the form or Ansatz for the kernel of the gap equation, the consistent scalar vertex at zero total momentum can automatically be obtained and hence the consistent susceptibility. This enables calculation of the chiral susceptibility for markedly different vertex Ansaetze. For themore » two cases considered, the results were consistent and the minor quantitative differences easily understood. The susceptibility can be used to demarcate the domain of coupling strength within a theory upon which chiral symmetry is dynamically broken. Degenerate massless scalar and pseudoscalar bound-states appear at the critical coupling for dynamical chiral symmetry breaking.« less

Chiral susceptibility and the scalar Ward identity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang Lei; Liu Yuxin; Center of Theoretical Nuclear Physics, National Laboratory of Heavy Ion Accelerator, Lanzhou 730000

2009-03-15

The chiral susceptibility is given by the scalar vacuum polarization at zero total momentum. This follows directly from the expression for the vacuum quark condensate so long as a nonperturbative symmetry preserving truncation scheme is employed. For QCD in-vacuum the susceptibility can rigorously be defined via a Pauli-Villars regularization procedure. Owing to the scalar Ward identity, irrespective of the form or Ansatz for the kernel of the gap equation, the consistent scalar vertex at zero total momentum can automatically be obtained and hence the consistent susceptibility. This enables calculation of the chiral susceptibility for markedly different vertex Ansaetze. For themore » two cases considered, the results were consistent and the minor quantitative differences easily understood. The susceptibility can be used to demarcate the domain of coupling strength within a theory upon which chiral symmetry is dynamically broken. Degenerate massless scalar and pseudoscalar bound-states appear at the critical coupling for dynamical chiral symmetry breaking.« less

Low-momentum ghost dressing function and the gluon mass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boucaud, Ph.; Leroy, J. P.; Le Yaouanc, A.

2010-09-01

We study the low-momentum ghost propagator Dyson-Schwinger equation in the Landau gauge, assuming for the truncation a constant ghost-gluon vertex, as it is extensively done, and a simple model for a massive gluon propagator. Then, regular Dyson-Schwinger equation solutions (the zero-momentum ghost dressing function not diverging) appear to emerge, and we show the ghost propagator to be described by an asymptotic expression reliable up to the order O(q{sup 2}). That expression, depending on the gluon mass and the zero-momentum Taylor-scheme effective charge, is proven to fit pretty well some low-momentum ghost propagator data [I. L. Bogolubsky, E. M. Ilgenfritz, M.more » Muller-Preussker, and A. Sternbeck, Phys. Lett. B 676, 69 (2009); Proc. Sci., LAT2007 (2007) 290] from big-volume lattice simulations where the so-called ''simulated annealing algorithm'' is applied to fix the Landau gauge.« less

Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

2011-01-01

Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial manatee surveys. 5. Overestimation of abundance by binomial mixture models owing to non-independent detections is problematic for ecological studies, but also for conservation. For example, in the case of endangered species, it could lead to inappropriate management decisions, such as downlisting. These issues will be increasingly relevant as more ecologists apply flexible N-mixture models to ecological data.

12 CFR 3.152 - Simple risk weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... applicable risk weight in this section. (1) Zero percent risk weight equity exposures. An equity exposure to... assigned a zero percent risk weight. (2) 20 percent risk weight equity exposures. An equity exposure to a... equals zero. If RVC is negative and greater than or equal to -1 (that is, between zero and -1), then E...

Predicting data saturation in qualitative surveys with mathematical models from ecological research.

PubMed

Tran, Viet-Thi; Porcher, Raphael; Tran, Viet-Chi; Ravaud, Philippe

2017-02-01

Sample size in surveys with open-ended questions relies on the principle of data saturation. Determining the point of data saturation is complex because researchers have information on only what they have found. The decision to stop data collection is solely dictated by the judgment and experience of researchers. In this article, we present how mathematical modeling may be used to describe and extrapolate the accumulation of themes during a study to help researchers determine the point of data saturation. The model considers a latent distribution of the probability of elicitation of all themes and infers the accumulation of themes as arising from a mixture of zero-truncated binomial distributions. We illustrate how the model could be used with data from a survey with open-ended questions on the burden of treatment involving 1,053 participants from 34 different countries and with various conditions. The performance of the model in predicting the number of themes to be found with the inclusion of new participants was investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. Then, we tested how the slope of the expected theme accumulation curve could be used as a stopping criterion for data collection in surveys with open-ended questions. By doubling the sample size after the inclusion of initial samples of 25 to 200 participants, the model reliably predicted the number of themes to be found. Mean estimation error ranged from 3% to 1% with simulated data and was <2% with data from the study of the burden of treatment. Sequentially calculating the slope of the expected theme accumulation curve for every five new participants included was a feasible approach to balance the benefits of including these new participants in the study. In our simulations, a stopping criterion based on a value of 0.05 for this slope allowed for identifying 97.5% of the themes while limiting the inclusion of participants eliciting nothing new in the study. Mathematical models adapted from ecological research can accurately predict the point of data saturation in surveys with open-ended questions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2018-01-01

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach, and has several attractive features compared to the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, since the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. PMID:26303591

In silico and in vivo studies of truncated forms of flagellin (FliC) of enteroaggregative Escherichia coli fused to FimH from uropathogenic Escherichia coli as a vaccine candidate against urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Savar, Nastaran Sadat; Jahanian-Najafabadi, Ali; Mahdavi, Mehdi; Shokrgozar, Mohammad Ali; Jafari, Anis; Bouzari, Saeid

2014-04-10

The new generation of vaccines against infectious diseases is based on recombinant fusion proteins. Flagellin (FliC) of enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) could be considered as a potent adjuvant in designing new vaccines. However, because of its large size, incorporation of this protein with a vaccine antigen might negatively influence recognition of the vaccine epitopes by the immune system. Designing the truncated forms of FliC, capable of inducing innate immune response, enhances the immune responses to the target antigen. We have previously shown that two truncated forms of FliC are able to induce Interleukine-8 production in HT-29 epithelial cell line. In this study we designed recombinant vaccine against urinary tract infections (UTIs) using truncated forms of FliC and type 1 fimbrial FimH adhesin from uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) and studied their in silico interactions with Toll-like receptor 5 (TLR-5) via docking protocols. The best fusion protein was subjected to cloning and expression. The ability of the recombinant vaccine and the truncated forms in inducing immune responses was investigated. Our results showed that truncated forms are capable of inducing Th1 (forms A and B) and Th2 (form A) responses and fusion vaccine induced strong cellular and humoral immune responses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Kelvin Wave Cascades in Superfluid Helium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boffetta, G.; Celani, A.; Dezzani, D.; Laurie, J.; Nazarenko, S.

2009-09-01

We study two different types of simplified models for Kelvin wave turbulence on quantized vortex lines in superfluids near zero temperature. Our first model is obtained from a truncated expansion of the Local Induction Approximation (Truncated-LIA) and it is shown to possess the same scalings and the essential behaviour as the full Biot-Savart model, being much simpler than the later and, therefore, more amenable to theoretical and numerical investigations. The Truncated-LIA model supports six-wave interactions and dual cascades, which are clearly demonstrated via the direct numerical simulation of this model in the present paper. In particular, our simulations confirm presence of the weak turbulence regime and the theoretically predicted spectra for the direct energy cascade and the inverse wave action cascade. The second type of model we study, the Differential Approximation Model (DAM), takes a further drastic simplification by assuming locality of interactions in k-space via using a differential closure that preserves the main scalings of the Kelvin wave dynamics. DAMs are even more amenable to study and they form a useful tool by providing simple analytical solutions in the cases when extra physical effects are present, e.g. forcing by reconnections, friction dissipation and phonon radiation. We study these models numerically and test their theoretical predictions, in particular the formation of the stationary spectra, and closeness of numerics for the higher-order DAM to the analytical predictions for the lower-order DAM.

Application of CRAFT in two-dimensional NMR data processing.

PubMed

Krishnamurthy, Krish; Sefler, Andrea M; Russell, David J

2017-03-01

Two-dimensional (2D) data are typically truncated in both dimensions, but invariably and severely so in the indirect dimension. These truncated FIDs and/or interferograms are extensively zero filled, and Fourier transformation of such zero-filled data is always preceded by a rapidly decaying apodization function. Hence, the frequency line width in the spectrum (at least parallel to the evolution dimension) is almost always dominated by the apodization function. Such apodization-driven line broadening in the indirect (t 1 ) dimension leads to the lack of clear resolution of cross peaks in the 2D spectrum. Time-domain analysis (i.e. extraction of frequency, amplitudes, line width, and phase parameters directly from the FID, in this case via Bayesian modeling into a tabular format) of NMR data is another approach for spectral resonance characterization and quantification. The recently published complete reduction to amplitude frequency table (CRAFT) technique converts the raw FID data (i.e. time-domain data) into a table of frequencies, amplitudes, decay rate constants, and phases. CRAFT analyses of time-domain data require minimal or no apodization prior to extraction of the four parameters. We used the CRAFT processing approach for the decimation of the interferograms and compared the results from a variety of 2D spectra against conventional processing with and without linear prediction. The results show that use of the CRAFT technique to decimate the t 1 interferograms yields much narrower spectral line width of the resonances, circumventing the loss of resolution due to apodization. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

PubMed

Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

2013-08-01

Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.

A Note on a Family of Alternating Sums of Products of Binomial Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gauthier, N.

2013-01-01

We study the following family of integral-valued alternating sums, where -infinity equal to or less than m equal to or less than infinity and n equal to or greater than 0 are integers [equation omitted]. We first consider h[subscript m](n) for m and n non-negative integers and show that it is of the form 2[superscript n + 2m] - P[subscript m](n),…

Marginalized multilevel hurdle and zero-inflated models for overdispersed and correlated count data with excess zeros.

PubMed

Kassahun, Wondwosen; Neyens, Thomas; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Verbeke, Geert

2014-11-10

Count data are collected repeatedly over time in many applications, such as biology, epidemiology, and public health. Such data are often characterized by the following three features. First, correlation due to the repeated measures is usually accounted for using subject-specific random effects, which are assumed to be normally distributed. Second, the sample variance may exceed the mean, and hence, the theoretical mean-variance relationship is violated, leading to overdispersion. This is usually allowed for based on a hierarchical approach, combining a Poisson model with gamma distributed random effects. Third, an excess of zeros beyond what standard count distributions can predict is often handled by either the hurdle or the zero-inflated model. A zero-inflated model assumes two processes as sources of zeros and combines a count distribution with a discrete point mass as a mixture, while the hurdle model separately handles zero observations and positive counts, where then a truncated-at-zero count distribution is used for the non-zero state. In practice, however, all these three features can appear simultaneously. Hence, a modeling framework that incorporates all three is necessary, and this presents challenges for the data analysis. Such models, when conditionally specified, will naturally have a subject-specific interpretation. However, adopting their purposefully modified marginalized versions leads to a direct marginal or population-averaged interpretation for parameter estimates of covariate effects, which is the primary interest in many applications. In this paper, we present a marginalized hurdle model and a marginalized zero-inflated model for correlated and overdispersed count data with excess zero observations and then illustrate these further with two case studies. The first dataset focuses on the Anopheles mosquito density around a hydroelectric dam, while adolescents' involvement in work, to earn money and support their families or themselves, is studied in the second example. Sub-models, which result from omitting zero-inflation and/or overdispersion features, are also considered for comparison's purpose. Analysis of the two datasets showed that accounting for the correlation, overdispersion, and excess zeros simultaneously resulted in a better fit to the data and, more importantly, that omission of any of them leads to incorrect marginal inference and erroneous conclusions about covariate effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

PubMed

Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Current hormonal contraceptive use predicts female extra-pair and dyadic sexual behavior: evidence based on Czech National Survey data.

PubMed

Klapilová, Kateřina; Cobey, Kelly D; Wells, Timothy; Roberts, S Craig; Weiss, Petr; Havlíček, Jan

2014-01-10

Data from 1155 Czech women (493 using oral contraception, 662 non-users), obtained from the Czech National Survey of Sexual Behavior, were used to investigate evolutionary-based hypotheses concerning the predictive value of current oral contraceptive (OC) use on extra-pair and dyadic (in-pair) sexual behavior of coupled women. Specifically, the aim was to determine whether current OC use was associated with lower extra-pair and higher in-pair sexual interest and behavior, because OC use suppresses cyclical shifts in mating psychology that occur in normally cycling women. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and negative binomial models were used to test associations between OC use and these sexual measures, controlling for other relevant predictors (e.g., age, parity, in-pair sexual satisfaction, relationship length). The overall incidence of having had an extra-pair partner or one-night stand in the previous year was not related to current OC use (the majority of the sample had not). However, among the women who had engaged in extra-pair sexual behavior, OC users had fewer one-night stands than non-users, and tended to have fewer partners, than non-users. OC users also had more frequent dyadic intercourse than non-users, potentially indicating higher commitment to their current relationship. These results suggest that suppression of fertility through OC use may alter important aspects of female sexual behavior, with potential implications for relationship functioning and stability.

Out-of-pocket expenditures for pharmaceuticals: lessons from the Austrian household budget survey.

PubMed

Sanwald, Alice; Theurl, Engelbert

2017-05-01

Paying pharmaceuticals out of pocket is an important source of financing pharmaceutical consumption. Only limited empirical knowledge is available on the determinants of these expenditures. In this article we analyze which characteristics of private households influence out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditure (OOPPE) in Austria. We use cross-sectional information on OOPPE and household characteristics provided by the Austrian household budget survey 2009/10. We split pharmaceutical expenditures into the two components prescription fees and over-the-counter (OTC) expenditures. To adjust for the specific characteristics of the data, we compare different econometric approaches: a two-part model, hurdle model, generalized linear model and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. The finally selected econometric approaches give a quite consistent picture. The probability of expenditures of both types is strongly influenced by the household structure. It increases with age, doctoral visits and the presence of a female householder. The education level and income only increase the probability of OTC pharmaceuticals. The level of OTC expenditures remains widely unexplained while the household structure and age influence the expenditures for prescription fees. Insurance characteristics of private households, either private or public, play a minor role in explaining the expenditure levels in all specifications. This refers to a homogeneous and comprehensive provision of pharmaceuticals in the public part of the Austrian health care system. The article gives useful insights into the determinants of pharmaceutical expenditures of private households and supplements the previous research that focuses on the individual level.

Socioeconomic inequalities in dental caries and their determinants in adolescents in New Delhi, India.

PubMed

Mathur, Manu Raj; Tsakos, Georgios; Millett, Christopher; Arora, Monika; Watt, Richard

2014-12-12

To determine whether socioeconomic inequalities are correlated to dental caries experience and decayed teeth of Indian adolescents, and assess whether behavioural and psychosocial factors mediate this association. Cross-sectional study of 1386 adolescents living in three diverse areas of New Delhi. Caries experience and number of decayed teeth were assessed clinically and a questionnaire was used to gather sociodemographic and psychosocial data. Zero Inflated Negative Binomial regression models were used to assess the relationship between the outcomes (caries experience and decayed teeth) and area of residence, adjusting for covariates. Significant inequalities in caries experience and number of decayed teeth were observed. Odds of an adolescent being caries free decreased by 66% (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.49) and 70% (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.43) in adolescents living in resettlement communities or urban slums, respectively, when compared with the middle class group. No difference was observed among those with caries experience/decayed teeth. Adjusting for covariates did not affect the inequalities. Area of residence appears to be a very strong and significant determinant for an adolescent to be caries/decay free in India. Psychosocial and behavioural factors do not mediate the association between area of residence and oral health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Gambling frequency and symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in relation to problem gambling among Swedish adolescents: a population-based study.

PubMed

Hellström, Charlotta; Wagner, Philippe; Nilsson, Kent W; Leppert, Jerzy; Åslund, Cecilia

2017-06-01

To investigate the associations between gambling frequency, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, and problem gambling among adolescent boys and girls. One hypothesis was that adolescents with increased ADHD symptoms have a higher frequency of gambling compared to adolescents with fewer ADHD symptoms. A population-based sample of adolescents (aged 15-18 years) completed a questionnaire on demographics, gambling habits, ADHD symptoms, and problematic gambling; 1412 adolescents (from 4440 sampled) with gambling experience were included in the final sample. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis revealed that increased ADHD symptoms, higher gambling frequency, and higher age were associated with lower odds for being non-susceptible to gambling problems. Moreover, gambling frequency interacted with ADHD symptoms in predicting probability of being non-susceptible to gambling problems. However, when analysing those already susceptible to problem gambling, ADHD symptoms did not modify the effect of gambling frequency on the expected magnitude of gambling problems. In susceptible individuals, problem gambling increased with both increased ADHD symptoms and increased gambling frequency, but the level of problems due to gambling frequency did not change depending on the ADHD symptom level. There was an interaction effect between sex and gambling frequency in relation to gambling problems. Adolescents with ADHD symptoms seem to be more sensitive to gambling, in terms of being susceptible to developing gambling problems. However, once susceptible, adolescents with ADHD symptoms are affected by gambling frequency similarly to other susceptible participants.

A mixed methods approach to exploring the relationship between Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) abundance and features of the urban environment in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada.

PubMed

Himsworth, Chelsea G; Parsons, Kirbee L; Feng, Alice Y T; Kerr, Thomas; Jardine, Claire M; Patrick, David M

2014-01-01

Urban rats (Rattus spp.) are among the most ubiquitous pest species in the world. Previous research has shown that rat abundance is largely determined by features of the environment; however, the specific urban environmental factors that influence rat population density within cities have yet to be clearly identified. Additionally, there are no well described tools or methodologies for conducting an in-depth evaluation of the relationship between urban rat abundance and the environment. In this study, we developed a systematic environmental observation tool using methods borrowed from the field of systematic social observation. This tool, which employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, was then used to identify environmental factors associated with the relative abundance of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada. Using a multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial model, we found that a variety of factors, including specific land use, building condition, and amount of refuse, were related to rat presence and abundance. Qualitative data largely supported and further clarified observed statistical relationships, but also identified conflicting and unique situations not easily captured through quantitative methods. Overall, the tool helped us to better understand the relationship between features of the urban environment and relative rat abundance within our study area and may useful for studying environmental determinants of zoonotic disease prevalence/distribution among urban rat populations in the future.

A Mixed Methods Approach to Exploring the Relationship between Norway Rat (Rattus norvegicus) Abundance and Features of the Urban Environment in an Inner-City Neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada

PubMed Central

Himsworth, Chelsea G.; Parsons, Kirbee L.; Feng, Alice Y. T.; Kerr, Thomas; Jardine, Claire M.; Patrick, David M.

2014-01-01

Urban rats (Rattus spp.) are among the most ubiquitous pest species in the world. Previous research has shown that rat abundance is largely determined by features of the environment; however, the specific urban environmental factors that influence rat population density within cities have yet to be clearly identified. Additionally, there are no well described tools or methodologies for conducting an in-depth evaluation of the relationship between urban rat abundance and the environment. In this study, we developed a systematic environmental observation tool using methods borrowed from the field of systematic social observation. This tool, which employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, was then used to identify environmental factors associated with the relative abundance of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada. Using a multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial model, we found that a variety of factors, including specific land use, building condition, and amount of refuse, were related to rat presence and abundance. Qualitative data largely supported and further clarified observed statistical relationships, but also identified conflicting and unique situations not easily captured through quantitative methods. Overall, the tool helped us to better understand the relationship between features of the urban environment and relative rat abundance within our study area and may useful for studying environmental determinants of zoonotic disease prevalence/distribution among urban rat populations in the future. PMID:24830847

Accounting for the daily locations visited in the study of the built environment correlates of recreational walking (the RECORD Cohort Study).

PubMed

Perchoux, Camille; Kestens, Yan; Brondeel, Ruben; Chaix, Basile

2015-12-01

Understanding how built environment characteristics influence recreational walking is of the utmost importance to develop population-level strategies to increase levels of physical activity in a sustainable manner. This study analyzes the residential and non-residential environmental correlates of recreational walking, using precisely geocoded activity space data. The point-based locations regularly visited by 4365 participants of the RECORD Cohort Study (Residential Environment and CORonary heart Disease) were collected between 2011 and 2013 in the Paris region using the VERITAS software (Visualization and Evaluation of Regular Individual Travel destinations and Activity Spaces). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were used to investigate associations between both residential and non-residential environmental exposure and overall self-reported recreational walking over 7 days. Density of destinations, presence of a lake or waterway, and neighborhood education were associated with an increase in the odds of reporting any recreational walking time. Only the density of destinations was associated with an increase in time spent walking for recreational purpose. Considering the recreational locations visited (i.e., sports and cultural destinations) in addition to the residential neighborhood in the calculation of exposure improved the model fit and increased the environment-walking associations, compared to a model accounting only for the residential space (Akaike Information Criterion equal to 52797 compared to 52815). Creating an environment supportive to walking around recreational locations may particularly stimulate recreational walking among people willing to use these facilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Violent Injury and Neighborhood Racial/Ethnic Diversity in Oakland, California.

PubMed

Berezin, Joshua; Gale, Sara; Nuru-Jeter, Amani; Lahiff, Maureen; Auerswald, Colette; Alter, Harrison

2017-12-01

Racial and ethnic segregation has been linked to a number of deleterious health outcomes, including violence. Previous studies of segregation and violence have focused on segregation between African Americans and Whites, used homicide as a measure of violence, and employed segregation measures that fail to take into account neighborhood level processes. We examined the relationship between neighborhood diversity and violent injury in Oakland, California. Violent injuries from the Alameda County Medical Center Trauma Registry that occurred between 1998 and 2002 were geocoded. A local measure of diversity among African American, White, Hispanic, and Asian populations that captured interactions across census block group boundaries was calculated from 2000 U.S. Census data and a Geographic Information System. The relationship between violent injuries and neighborhood level of diversity, adjusted for covariates, was analyzed with zero-inflated negative binomial regression. There was a significant and inverse association between level of racial and ethnic diversity and rate of violent injury (IRR 0.30; 95% CI: 0.13-0.69). There was a similar relationship between diversity and violent injury for predominantly African American block groups (IRR 0.23; 95% CI: 0.08-0.62) and predominantly Hispanic block groups (IRR 0.08; 95% CI: 0.01-0.76). Diversity was not significantly associated with violent injury in predominantly White or Asian block groups. Block group racial and ethnic diversity is associated with lower rates of violent injury, particularly for predominantly African American and Hispanic block groups.

Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile.

PubMed

Oyarte, Marcela; Delgado, Iris; Pedrero, Víctor; Agar, Lorenzo; Cabieses, Báltica

2018-04-09

To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%), and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%). We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans). In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i) lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii) digestive organs, and (iii) breast cancer. Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level.

The Association Between Mild Intraoperative Hypotension and Stroke in General Surgery Patients.

PubMed

Hsieh, Jason K; Dalton, Jarrod E; Yang, Dongsheng; Farag, Ehab S; Sessler, Daniel I; Kurz, Andrea M

2016-10-01

Intraoperative hypotension may contribute to perioperative strokes. We therefore tested the hypothesis that intraoperative hypotension is associated with perioperative stroke. After institutional review board approval for this case-control study, we identified patients who had nonneurological, noncardiac, and noncarotid surgery under general anesthesia at the Cleveland Clinic between 2005 and 2011 and experienced a postoperative stroke. Control patients not experiencing postoperative stroke were matched in a 4-to-1 ratio using propensity scores and restriction to the same procedure type as stroke patients. The association between intraoperative hypotension, measured as time-integrated area under a mean arterial pressure (MAP) of 70 mm Hg, and postoperative stroke was assessed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Among 106 337 patients meeting inclusion criteria, we identified 120 who had confirmed postoperative stroke events based on manual chart review. Four-to-one propensity matching yielded a final matched sample of 104 stroke cases and 398 controls. There was no association between stroke and intraoperative hypotension. Stroke patients were not more likely than controls to have been hypotensive (odds ratio, 0.49 [0.18-1.38]), and among patients with intraoperative hypotension, stroke patients did not experience a greater degree of hypotension than controls (ratio of geometric means, 1.07 [0.76-1.53]). In our propensity score-matched case-control study, we did not find an association between intraoperative hypotension, defined as MAP < 70 mm Hg, and postoperative stroke.

Factors associated with cholera in Kenya, 2008-2013.

PubMed

Cowman, Gretchen; Otipo, Shikanga; Njeru, Ian; Achia, Thomas; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Bartram, Jamie; Kioko, Jackson

2017-01-01

Kenya experienced widespread cholera outbreaks in 1997-1999 and 2007-2010. The re-emergence of cholera in Kenya in 2015 indicates that cholera remains a public health threat. Understanding past outbreaks is important for preventing future outbreaks. This study investigated the relationship between cholera occurrence in Kenya and various environmental and demographic factors related to water, sanitation, socio-economic status, education, urbanization and availability of health facilities during the time period 2008-2013. The primary outcome analyzed was the number of cholera cases at the district level, obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health's national cholera surveillance records. Values of independent variables were obtained from the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census and other national surveys. The data were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. Multivariate analysis indicated that the risk of cholera was associated with open defecation, use of unimproved water sources, poverty headcount ratio and the number of health facilities per 100,000 population (p < 0.05). No statistically significant association was found between cholera occurrence and education, percentage of population living in urban areas or population density. The Sustainable Development Goals and Kenya's blueprint for development, Kenya Vision 2030 , call for access to sanitation facilities and clean water for all by 2030. Kenya has made important economic strides in recent years but continues to be affected by diseases like cholera that are associated with low socio-economic status. Further expansion of access to sanitation facilities and clean water is necessary for preventing cholera in Kenya.

Global healthcare use by immigrants in Spain according to morbidity burden, area of origin, and length of stay.

PubMed

Gimeno-Feliu, Luis A; Calderón-Larrañaga, Amaia; Diaz, Esperanza; Poblador-Plou, Beatriz; Macipe-Costa, Rosa; Prados-Torres, Alexandra

2016-05-27

The healthcare of immigrants is an important aspect of equity of care provision. Understanding how immigrants use the healthcare services based on their needs is crucial to establish effective health policy. This retrospective, observational study included the total population of Aragon, Spain (1,251,540 individuals, of whom 11.9 % were immigrants). Patient-level data on the use of primary, specialised, hospital, and emergency care as well as prescription drug use in 2011 were extracted from the EpiChron Cohort and compared between immigrants and nationals. Multivariable standard or zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were generated, adjusting for age, sex, length of stay, and morbidity burden. The annual visit rates of immigrants were lower than those of nationals for primary care (3.3 vs 6.4), specialised care (1.3 vs 2.7), planned hospital admissions/100 individuals (1.6 vs 3.8), unplanned hospital admissions/100 individuals (2.7 vs 4.7), and emergency room visits/10 individuals (2.3 vs 2.8). Annual prescription drug costs were also lower for immigrants (€47 vs €318). These differences were only partially attenuated after adjusting for age, sex and morbidity burden. In a universal coverage health system offering broad legal access to immigrants, the global use of healthcare services was lower for immigrants than for nationals. These differences may be explained in part by the healthy migration effect, but also reveal possible inequalities in healthcare provision that warrant further investigation.

Gender differences in use of hearing protection devices among farm operators.

PubMed

McCullagh, Marjorie C; Banerjee, Tanima; Yang, James J; Bernick, Janice; Duffy, Sonia; Redman, Richard

2016-01-01

Although farm operators have frequent exposure to hazardous noise and high rates of noise-induced hearing loss, they have low use of hearing protection devices (HPDs). Women represent about one-third of farm operators, and their numbers are climbing. However, among published studies examining use of HPDs in this worker group, none have examined gender-related differences. The purpose of this study was to examine gender-related differences in use of hearing protection and related predictors among farm operators. Data previously collected at farm shows and by telephone were analyzed using t-tests and generalized linear model with zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) distribution. The difference in rate of hearing protector use between men and women farm operators was not significant. There was no difference between men and women in most hearing protector-related attitudes and beliefs. Although men and women farm operators had similar rates of use of hearing protectors when working in high-noise environments, attitudes about HPD use differed. Specifically, interpersonal role modeling was a predictor of HPD use among women, but not for men. This difference suggests that while farm operators of both genders may benefit from interventions designed to reduce barriers to HPD use (e.g., difficulty communicating with co-workers and hearing warning sounds), farm women have unique needs in relation to cognitive-perceptual factors that predict HPD use. Women farm operators may lack role models for use of HPDs (e.g., in peers and advertising), contributing to their less frequent use of protection.

Cariogenicity of soft drinks, milk and fruit juice in low-income african-american children: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Lim, Sungwoo; Sohn, Woosung; Burt, Brian A; Sandretto, Anita M; Kolker, Justine L; Marshall, Teresa A; Ismail, Amid I

2008-07-01

The authors conducted a study to test the hypothesis that high consumption of soft drinks, relative to milk and 100 percent fruit juice, is a risk factor for dental caries in low-income African-American children in Detroit. Trained dentists and interviewers examined a representative sample of 369 children, aged 3 to 5 years, in 2002-2003 and again two years later. The authors used the 2000 Block Kids Food Frequency Questionnaire (NutritionQuest, Berkeley, Calif.) to collect dietary information. They assessed caries by using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System. Soft drinks, 100 percent fruit juice and milk represented the sugared beverages consumed by the cohort. A cluster analysis of the relative proportion of each drink at baseline and follow-up revealed four consumption patterns. Using zero-inflated negative binomial models, the authors found that children who changed from being low consumers of soft drinks at baseline to high consumers after two years had a 1.75 times higher mean number of new decayed, missing and filled tooth surfaces compared with low consumers of soft drinks at both time points. Children who consumed more soft drinks, relative to milk and 100 percent fruit juice, as they grew older were at a greater risk of developing dental caries. Health promotion programs and health care providers should emphasize to patients and caregivers the caries risk associated with consumption of soft drinks.

The price of sex: condom use and the determinants of the price of sex among female sex workers in eastern Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Elmes, Jocelyn; Nhongo, Kundai; Ward, Helen; Hallett, Timothy; Nyamukapa, Constance; White, Peter J; Gregson, Simon

2014-12-01

Higher prices for unprotected sex threaten the high levels of condom use that contributed to the decline in Zimbabwe's human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. To improve understanding of financial pressures competing against safer sex, we explore factors associated with the price of commercial sex in rural eastern Zimbabwe. We collected and analyzed cross-sectional data on 311 women, recruited during October-December 2010, who reported that they received payment for their most-recent or second-most-recent sex acts in the past year. Zero-inflated negative binomial models with robust standard errors clustered on female sex worker (FSW) were used to explore social and behavioral determinants of price. The median price of sex was $10 (interquartile range [IQR], $5-$20) per night and $10 (IQR, $5-$15) per act. Amounts paid in cash and commodities did not differ significantly. At the most-recent sex act, more-educated FSWs received 30%-74% higher payments. Client requests for condom use significantly predicted protected sex (P < .01), but clients paid on average 42.9% more for unprotected sex. Within a work environment where clients' preferences determine condom use, FSWs effectively use their individual capital to negotiate the terms of condom use. Strengthening FSWs' preferences for protected sex could help maintain high levels of condom use. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2016-01-15

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach and has several attractive features compared with the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, because the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Not in My Back Yard: A Comparative Analysis of Crime Around Publicly Funded Drug Treatment Centers, Liquor Stores, Convenience Stores, and Corner Stores in One Mid-Atlantic City

PubMed Central

Furr-Holden, C. Debra M.; Milam, Adam J.; Nesoff, Elizabeth D.; Johnson, Renee M.; Fakunle, David O.; Jennings, Jacky M.; Thorpe, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Objective: This research examined whether publicly funded drug treatment centers (DTCs) were associated with violent crime in excess of the violence happening around other commercial businesses. Method: Violent crime data and locations of community entities were geocoded and mapped. DTCs and other retail outlets were matched based on a Neighborhood Disadvantage score at the census tract level. Street network buffers ranging from 100 to 1,400 feet were placed around each location. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the count of violent crimes and the distance from each business type. Results: Compared with the mean count of violent crime around drug treatment centers, the mean count of violent crime (M = 2.87) was significantly higher around liquor stores (M = 3.98; t test; p < .01) and corner stores (M = 3.78; t test; p < .01), and there was no statistically significant difference between the count around convenience stores (M = 2.65; t test; p = .32). In the adjusted negative binomial regression models, there was a negative and significant relationship between the count of violent crime and the distance from drug treatment centers (β = -.069, p < .01), liquor stores (β = -.081, p < .01), corner stores (β = -.116, p < .01), and convenience stores (β = -.154, p < .01). Conclusions: Violent crime associated with drug treatment centers is similar to that associated with liquor stores and is less frequent than that associated with convenience stores and corner stores. PMID:26751351

Coupled Brownian motors: Anomalous hysteresis and zero-bias negative conductance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, P.; Kawai, R.; Van den Broeck, C.; Hänggi, P.

1999-03-01

We introduce a model of interacting Brownian particles in a symmetric, periodic potential that undergoes a noise-induced non-equilibrium phase transition. The associated spontaneous symmetry breaking entails a ratchet-like transport mechanism. In response to an external force we identify several novel features; among the most prominent being a zero-bias negative conductance and a prima facie counterintuitive, anomalous hysteresis.

Negative-ion formation in the explosives RDX, PETN, and TNT by using the reversal electron attachment detection technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boumsellek, S.; Alajajian, S. H.; Chutjian, A.

1992-01-01

First results of a beam-beam, single-collision study of negative-ion mass spectra produced by attachment of zero-energy electrons to the molecules of the explosives RDX, PETN, and TNT are presented. The technique used is reversal electron attachment detection (READ) wherein the zero-energy electrons are produced by focusing an intense electron beam into a shaped electrostatic field which reverses the trajectory of electrons. The target beam is introduced at the reversal point, and attachment occurs because the electrons have essentially zero longitudinal and radial velocity. The READ technique is used to obtain the 'signature' of molecular ion formation and/or fragmentation for each explosive. Present data are compared with results from atmospheric-pressure ionization and negative-ion chemical ionization methods.

24 CFR 902.62 - Failure to submit data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... receive a presumptive rating of failure for its unaudited information and shall receive zero points for... timely submission of audited information does not negate the score of zero received for the unaudited... subindicator(s) shall receive a score of zero for the relevant indicator(s) or subindicator(s) and its overall...

Modeling avian abundance from replicated counts using binomial mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans

2005-01-01

Abundance estimation in ecology is usually accomplished by capture–recapture, removal, or distance sampling methods. These may be hard to implement at large spatial scales. In contrast, binomial mixture models enable abundance estimation without individual identification, based simply on temporally and spatially replicated counts. Here, we evaluate mixture models using data from the national breeding bird monitoring program in Switzerland, where some 250 1-km2 quadrats are surveyed using the territory mapping method three times during each breeding season. We chose eight species with contrasting distribution (wide–narrow), abundance (high–low), and detectability (easy–difficult). Abundance was modeled as a random effect with a Poisson or negative binomial distribution, with mean affected by forest cover, elevation, and route length. Detectability was a logit-linear function of survey date, survey date-by-elevation, and sampling effort (time per transect unit). Resulting covariate effects and parameter estimates were consistent with expectations. Detectability per territory (for three surveys) ranged from 0.66 to 0.94 (mean 0.84) for easy species, and from 0.16 to 0.83 (mean 0.53) for difficult species, depended on survey effort for two easy and all four difficult species, and changed seasonally for three easy and three difficult species. Abundance was positively related to route length in three high-abundance and one low-abundance (one easy and three difficult) species, and increased with forest cover in five forest species, decreased for two nonforest species, and was unaffected for a generalist species. Abundance estimates under the most parsimonious mixture models were between 1.1 and 8.9 (median 1.8) times greater than estimates based on territory mapping; hence, three surveys were insufficient to detect all territories for each species. We conclude that binomial mixture models are an important new approach for estimating abundance corrected for detectability when only repeated-count data are available. Future developments envisioned include estimation of trend, occupancy, and total regional abundance.

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data.

PubMed

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C

2015-12-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased Type I and Type II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in online supplemental materials. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data

PubMed Central

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A.; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C.

2015-01-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non-normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased type-I and type-II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally-technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in supplementary materials. PMID:26098126

Magnitude of virologic blips is associated with a higher risk for virologic rebound in HIV-infected individuals: a recurrent events analysis.

PubMed

Grennan, J Troy; Loutfy, Mona R; Su, DeSheng; Harrigan, P Richard; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio S G; Rourke, Sean; Tsoukas, Christos; Hogg, Bob; Raboud, Janet

2012-04-15

The importance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) blip magnitude on virologic rebound has been raised in clinical guidelines relating to viral load assays. Antiretroviral-naive individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) after 1 January 2000 and achieving virologic suppression were studied. Negative binomial models were used to identify blip correlates. Recurrent event models were used to determine the association between blips and rebound by incorporating multiple periods of virologic suppression per individual. 3550 participants (82% male; median age, 40 years) were included. In a multivariable negative binomial regression model, the Amplicor assay was associated with a lower blip rate than branched DNA (rate ratio, 0.69; P < .01), controlling for age, sex, region, baseline HIV-1 RNA and CD4 count, AIDS-defining illnesses, year of cART initiation, cART type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency. In a multivariable recurrent event model controlling for age, sex, intravenous drug use, cART start year, cART type, assay type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency, blips of 500-999 copies/mL were associated with virologic rebound (hazard ratio, 2.70; P = .002), whereas blips of 50-499 were not. HIV-1 RNA assay was an important determinant of blip rates and should be considered in clinical guidelines. Blips ≥500 copies/mL were associated with increased rebound risk.

Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed Automatic Vehicle Identification data for an urban expressway.

PubMed

Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Yu, Rongjie

2016-03-01

In traffic safety studies, crash frequency modeling of total crashes is the cornerstone before proceeding to more detailed safety evaluation. The relationship between crash occurrence and factors such as traffic flow and roadway geometric characteristics has been extensively explored for a better understanding of crash mechanisms. In this study, a multi-level Bayesian framework has been developed in an effort to identify the crash contributing factors on an urban expressway in the Central Florida area. Two types of traffic data from the Automatic Vehicle Identification system, which are the processed data capped at speed limit and the unprocessed data retaining the original speed were incorporated in the analysis along with road geometric information. The model framework was proposed to account for the hierarchical data structure and the heterogeneity among the traffic and roadway geometric data. Multi-level and random parameters models were constructed and compared with the Negative Binomial model under the Bayesian inference framework. Results showed that the unprocessed traffic data was superior. Both multi-level models and random parameters models outperformed the Negative Binomial model and the models with random parameters achieved the best model fitting. The contributing factors identified imply that on the urban expressway lower speed and higher speed variation could significantly increase the crash likelihood. Other geometric factors were significant including auxiliary lanes and horizontal curvature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the distribution of colonial species to improve estimation of plankton concentration in ballast water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajakaruna, Harshana; VandenByllaardt, Julie; Kydd, Jocelyn; Bailey, Sarah

2018-03-01

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set limits on allowable plankton concentrations in ballast water discharge to minimize aquatic invasions globally. Previous guidance on ballast water sampling and compliance decision thresholds was based on the assumption that probability distributions of plankton are Poisson when spatially homogenous, or negative binomial when heterogeneous. We propose a hierarchical probability model, which incorporates distributions at the level of particles (i.e., discrete individuals plus colonies per unit volume) and also within particles (i.e., individuals per particle) to estimate the average plankton concentration in ballast water. We examined the performance of the models using data for plankton in the size class ≥ 10 μm and < 50 μm, collected from five different depths of a ballast tank of a commercial ship in three independent surveys. We show that the data fit to the negative binomial and the hierarchical probability models equally well, with both models performing better than the Poisson model at the scale of our sampling. The hierarchical probability model, which accounts for both the individuals and the colonies in a sample, reduces the uncertainty associated with the concentration estimation, and improves the power of rejecting the decision on ship's compliance when a ship does not truly comply with the standard. We show examples of how to test ballast water compliance using the above models.

A statistical model to estimate the impact of a hepatitis A vaccination programme.

PubMed

Oviedo, Manuel; Pilar Muñoz, M; Domínguez, Angela; Borras, Eva; Carmona, Gloria

2008-11-11

A program of routine hepatitis A+B vaccination in preadolescents was introduced in 1998 in Catalonia, a region situated in the northeast of Spain. The objective of this study was to quantify the reduction in the incidence of hepatitis A in order to differentiate the natural reduction of the incidence of hepatitis A from that produced due to the vaccination programme and to predict the evolution of the disease in forthcoming years. A generalized linear model (GLM) using negative binomial regression was used to estimate the incidence rates of hepatitis A in Catalonia by year, age group and vaccination. Introduction of the vaccine reduced cases by 5.5 by year (p-value<0.001), but there was a significant interaction between the year of report and vaccination that smoothed this reduction (p-value<0.001). The reduction was not equal in all age groups, being greater in the 12-18 years age group, which fell from a mean rate of 8.15 per 100,000 person/years in the pre-vaccination period (1992-1998) to 1.4 in the vaccination period (1999-2005). The model predicts the evolution accurately for the group of vaccinated subjects. Negative binomial regression is more appropriate than Poisson regression when observed variance exceeds the observed mean (overdispersed count data), can cause a variable apparently contribute more on the model of what really makes it.

Finite mixture modeling approach for developing crash modification factors in highway safety analysis.

PubMed

Park, Byung-Jung; Lord, Dominique; Wu, Lingtao

2016-10-28

This study aimed to investigate the relative performance of two models (negative binomial (NB) model and two-component finite mixture of negative binomial models (FMNB-2)) in terms of developing crash modification factors (CMFs). Crash data on rural multilane divided highways in California and Texas were modeled with the two models, and crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were derived. The resultant CMFunction estimated from the FMNB-2 model showed several good properties over that from the NB model. First, the safety effect of a covariate was better reflected by the CMFunction developed using the FMNB-2 model, since the model takes into account the differential responsiveness of crash frequency to the covariate. Second, the CMFunction derived from the FMNB-2 model is able to capture nonlinear relationships between covariate and safety. Finally, following the same concept as those for NB models, the combined CMFs of multiple treatments were estimated using the FMNB-2 model. The results indicated that they are not the simple multiplicative of single ones (i.e., their safety effects are not independent under FMNB-2 models). Adjustment Factors (AFs) were then developed. It is revealed that current Highway Safety Manual's method could over- or under-estimate the combined CMFs under particular combination of covariates. Safety analysts are encouraged to consider using the FMNB-2 models for developing CMFs and AFs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

nbCNV: a multi-constrained optimization model for discovering copy number variants in single-cell sequencing data.

PubMed

Zhang, Changsheng; Cai, Hongmin; Huang, Jingying; Song, Yan

2016-09-17

Variations in DNA copy number have an important contribution to the development of several diseases, including autism, schizophrenia and cancer. Single-cell sequencing technology allows the dissection of genomic heterogeneity at the single-cell level, thereby providing important evolutionary information about cancer cells. In contrast to traditional bulk sequencing, single-cell sequencing requires the amplification of the whole genome of a single cell to accumulate enough samples for sequencing. However, the amplification process inevitably introduces amplification bias, resulting in an over-dispersing portion of the sequencing data. Recent study has manifested that the over-dispersed portion of the single-cell sequencing data could be well modelled by negative binomial distributions. We developed a read-depth based method, nbCNV to detect the copy number variants (CNVs). The nbCNV method uses two constraints-sparsity and smoothness to fit the CNV patterns under the assumption that the read signals are negatively binomially distributed. The problem of CNV detection was formulated as a quadratic optimization problem, and was solved by an efficient numerical solution based on the classical alternating direction minimization method. Extensive experiments to compare nbCNV with existing benchmark models were conducted on both simulated data and empirical single-cell sequencing data. The results of those experiments demonstrate that nbCNV achieves superior performance and high robustness for the detection of CNVs in single-cell sequencing data.

Exploring nonlinear topological states of matter with exciton-polaritons: Edge solitons in kagome lattice.

PubMed

Gulevich, D R; Yudin, D; Skryabin, D V; Iorsh, I V; Shelykh, I A

2017-05-11

Matter in nontrivial topological phase possesses unique properties, such as support of unidirectional edge modes on its interface. It is the existence of such modes which is responsible for the wonderful properties of a topological insulator - material which is insulating in the bulk but conducting on its surface, along with many of its recently proposed photonic and polaritonic analogues. We show that exciton-polariton fluid in a nontrivial topological phase in kagome lattice, supports nonlinear excitations in the form of solitons built up from wavepackets of topological edge modes - topological edge solitons. Our theoretical and numerical results indicate the appearance of bright, dark and grey solitons dwelling in the vicinity of the boundary of a lattice strip. In a parabolic region of the dispersion the solitons can be described by envelope functions satisfying the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Upon collision, multiple topological edge solitons emerge undistorted, which proves them to be true solitons as opposed to solitary waves for which such requirement is waived. Importantly, kagome lattice supports topological edge mode with zero group velocity unlike other types of truncated lattices. This gives a finer control over soliton velocity which can take both positive and negative values depending on the choice of forming it topological edge modes.

A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A

2015-01-01

Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels), I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data. Finally, both OLRE and Beta-Binomial models performed poorly when models contained <5 levels of the random intercept term, especially for estimating variance components, and this effect appeared independent of total sample size. These results suggest that OLRE are a useful tool for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data, but that they do not perform well in all circumstances and researchers should take care to verify the robustness of parameter estimates of OLRE models.

M-Bonomial Coefficients and Their Identities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asiru, Muniru A.

2010-01-01

In this note, we introduce M-bonomial coefficients or (M-bonacci binomial coefficients). These are similar to the binomial and the Fibonomial (or Fibonacci-binomial) coefficients and can be displayed in a triangle similar to Pascal's triangle from which some identities become obvious.

Principal Attitudes Regarding Zero Tolerance and Racial Disparities in School Suspensions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heilbrun, Anna; Cornell, Dewey; Lovegrove, Peter

2015-01-01

Zero tolerance school discipline practices have been associated with a national increase in suspensions, a practice that has had a disproportionate negative impact on Black students. The present study investigated an association between principal attitudes toward zero tolerance and suspension rates for White and Black students in 306 Virginia high…

12 CFR 324.152 - Simple risk weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... (that is, between zero and -1), then E equals the absolute value of RVC. If RVC is negative and less... the lowest applicable risk weight in this section. (1) Zero percent risk weight equity exposures. An....131(d)(2) is assigned a zero percent risk weight. (2) 20 percent risk weight equity exposures. An...

Some characteristics of repeated sickness absence

PubMed Central

Ferguson, David

1972-01-01

Ferguson, D. (1972).Brit. J. industr. Med.,29, 420-431. Some characteristics of repeated sickness absence. Several studies have shown that frequency of absence attributed to sickness is not distributed randomly but tends to follow the negative binomial distribution, and this has been taken to support the concept of `proneness' to such absence. Thus, the distribution of sickness absence resembles that of minor injury at work demonstrated over 50 years ago. Because the investigation of proneness to absence does not appear to have been reported by others in Australia, the opportunity was taken, during a wider study of health among telegraphists in a large communications undertaking, to analyse some characteristics of repeated sickness absence. The records of medically certified and uncertified sickness absence of all 769 telegraphists continuously employed in all State capitals over a two-and-a-half-year period were compared with those of 411 clerks and 415 mechanics and, in Sydney, 380 mail sorters and 80 of their supervisors. All telegraphists in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, and all mail sorters in Sydney, who were available and willing were later medically examined. From their absence pattern repeaters (employees who had had eight or more certified absences in two and a half years) were separated into three types based on a presumptive origin in chance, recurrent disease and symptomatic non-specific disorder. The observed distribution of individual frequency of certified absence over the full two-and-a-half-year period of study followed that expected from the univariate negative binomial, using maximum likelihood estimators, rather than the poisson distribution, in three of the four occupational groups in Sydney. Limited correlational and bivariate analysis supported the interpretation of proneness ascribed to the univariate fit. In the two groups studied, frequency of uncertified absence could not be fitted by the negative binomial, although the numbers of such absences in individuals in successive years were relatively highly correlated. All types of repeater were commoner in Sydney than in the other capital city offices, which differed little from each other. Repeaters were more common among those whose absence was attributed to neurosis, alimentary and upper respiratory tract disorder, and injury. Out of more than 90 health, personal, social, and industrial attributes determined at examination, only two (ethanol habit and adverse attitude to pay) showed any statistically significant association when telegraphist repeaters in Sydney were compared with employees who were rarely absent. Though repeating tended to be associated with chronic or recurrent ill health revealed at examination, one quarter of repeaters had little such ill health and one quarter of rarely absent employees had much. It was concluded that, in the population studied, the fitting of the negative binomial to frequency of certified sickness absence could, in the circumstances of the study, reasonably be given an interpretation of proneness. In that population also repeating varies geographically and occupationally, and is poorly associated with disease and other attributes uncovered at examination, with the exception of the ethanol habit. Repeaters are more often neurotic than employees who are rarely absent but also are more often stable double jobbers. The repeater should be identified for what help may be given him, if needed, otherwise it would seem more profitable to attack those features in work design and organization which influence motivation to come to work. Social factors which predispose to repeated absence are less amenable to modification. PMID:4636662

Traumatic Brain Injury among US Active Duty Military Personnel and Negative Drinking-Related Consequences

PubMed Central

Adams, Rachel Sayko; Larson, Mary Jo; Corrigan, John D.; Ritter, Grant A.; Williams, Thomas V.

2013-01-01

This study used the 2008 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors among Active Duty Military Personnel to determine whether traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with past year drinking-related consequences. The study sample included currently-drinking personnel who had a combat deployment in the past year and were home for ≥6 months (N = 3,350). Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the incidence rate ratios of consequences, by TBI-level. Experiencing a TBI with a loss of consciousness >20 minutes was significantly associated with consequences independent of demographics, combat exposure, posttraumatic stress disorder, and binge drinking. The study’s limitations are noted. PMID:23869456

Estimating a Logistic Discrimination Functions When One of the Training Samples Is Subject to Misclassification: A Maximum Likelihood Approach.

PubMed

Nagelkerke, Nico; Fidler, Vaclav

2015-01-01

The problem of discrimination and classification is central to much of epidemiology. Here we consider the estimation of a logistic regression/discrimination function from training samples, when one of the training samples is subject to misclassification or mislabeling, e.g. diseased individuals are incorrectly classified/labeled as healthy controls. We show that this leads to zero-inflated binomial model with a defective logistic regression or discrimination function, whose parameters can be estimated using standard statistical methods such as maximum likelihood. These parameters can be used to estimate the probability of true group membership among those, possibly erroneously, classified as controls. Two examples are analyzed and discussed. A simulation study explores properties of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates and the estimates of the number of mislabeled observations.

Performance and structure of single-mode bosonic codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Victor V.; Noh, Kyungjoo; Duivenvoorden, Kasper; Young, Dylan J.; Brierley, R. T.; Reinhold, Philip; Vuillot, Christophe; Li, Linshu; Shen, Chao; Girvin, S. M.; Terhal, Barbara M.; Jiang, Liang

2018-03-01

The early Gottesman, Kitaev, and Preskill (GKP) proposal for encoding a qubit in an oscillator has recently been followed by cat- and binomial-code proposals. Numerically optimized codes have also been proposed, and we introduce codes of this type here. These codes have yet to be compared using the same error model; we provide such a comparison by determining the entanglement fidelity of all codes with respect to the bosonic pure-loss channel (i.e., photon loss) after the optimal recovery operation. We then compare achievable communication rates of the combined encoding-error-recovery channel by calculating the channel's hashing bound for each code. Cat and binomial codes perform similarly, with binomial codes outperforming cat codes at small loss rates. Despite not being designed to protect against the pure-loss channel, GKP codes significantly outperform all other codes for most values of the loss rate. We show that the performance of GKP and some binomial codes increases monotonically with increasing average photon number of the codes. In order to corroborate our numerical evidence of the cat-binomial-GKP order of performance occurring at small loss rates, we analytically evaluate the quantum error-correction conditions of those codes. For GKP codes, we find an essential singularity in the entanglement fidelity in the limit of vanishing loss rate. In addition to comparing the codes, we draw parallels between binomial codes and discrete-variable systems. First, we characterize one- and two-mode binomial as well as multiqubit permutation-invariant codes in terms of spin-coherent states. Such a characterization allows us to introduce check operators and error-correction procedures for binomial codes. Second, we introduce a generalization of spin-coherent states, extending our characterization to qudit binomial codes and yielding a multiqudit code.

Estimating the impact of alcohol policies on youth suicides.

PubMed

Markowitz, Sara; Chatterji, Pinka; Kaestner, Robert

2003-03-01

Alcohol consumption has been identified as one of the most important risk factors for youth suicide. Previous research has shown a strong, empirical link between alcohol use and suicide. If alcohol use is a contributing factor in determining suicidal behaviors, then policies designed to reduce the alcohol consumption may succeed in reducing youth suicides as well. This paper looks at the role of alcohol-related policies in reducing completed suicides by American youths and young adults. This hypothesis comes from two well established relationships: i) the observed correlation between alcohol consumption and incidents of suicide, and ii) the negative relationship between the full price of alcohol and consumption. The alcohol policies examined are excise taxes on beer, measures of alcohol availability, and drunk driving laws. Data on completed suicides for each state in the United States are analyzed for the period 1976-1999. Negative binomial regressions are used to estimate a reduced form model of youth suicide. Suicides are analyzed by gender and age groups (ages 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24). The results indicate that increases in the excise tax on beer are associated with a reduced number of male suicides. This tax, however, has no impact on female suicides. Suicides by males ages 20-24 are positively related to the availability of alcohol, and negatively related to the presence of a 0.08 BAC (blood alcohol concentration) law and a zero tolerance law for drunk driving. Female suicides are not impacted by the availability of alcohol, although the drunk driving laws may impact suicides by teenage females. Policies designed to reduce alcohol consumption may have the unintended benefit of reducing suicides, particularly among young males. While this research shows that alcohol policies may be successful in reducing male suicides, such policies have little impact on female suicides. Future research should explore other potential types of policies and programs to reduce female suicides. Also, illegal drug use has been linked to suicides in a similar manner as alcohol consumption. Future research should consider the role of illegal drug consumption and related policies in determining youth suicides.

Dominant-Negative Inhibition of Prion Formation Diminished by Deletion Mutagenesis of the Prion Protein

PubMed Central

Zulianello, Laurence; Kaneko, Kiyotoshi; Scott, Michael; Erpel, Susanne; Han, Dong; Cohen, Fred E.; Prusiner, Stanley B.

2000-01-01

Polymorphic basic residues near the C terminus of the prion protein (PrP) in humans and sheep appear to protect against prion disease. In heterozygotes, inhibition of prion formation appears to be dominant negative and has been simulated in cultured cells persistently infected with scrapie prions. The results of nuclear magnetic resonance and mutagenesis studies indicate that specific substitutions at the C-terminal residues 167, 171, 214, and 218 of PrPC act as dominant-negative, inhibitors of PrPSc formation (K. Kaneko et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 94:10069–10074, 1997). Trafficking of substituted PrPC to caveaola-like domains or rafts by the glycolipid anchor was required for the dominant-negative phenotype; interestingly, amino acid replacements at multiple sites were less effective than single-residue substitutions. To elucidate which domains of PrPC are responsible for dominant-negative inhibition of PrPSc formation, we analyzed whether N-terminally truncated PrP(Q218K) molecules exhibited dominant-negative effects in the conversion of full-length PrPC to PrPSc. We found that the C-terminal domain of PrP is not sufficient to impede the conversion of the full-length PrPC molecule and that N-terminally truncated molecules (with residues 23 to 88 and 23 to 120 deleted) have reduced dominant-negative activity. Whether the N-terminal region of PrP acts by stabilizing the C-terminal domain of the molecule or by modulating the binding of PrPC to an auxiliary molecule that participates in PrPSc formation remains to be established. PMID:10756050

Particle formation and ordering in strongly correlated fermionic systems: Solving a model of quantum chromodynamics

DOE PAGES

Azaria, P.; Konik, R. M.; Lecheminant, P.; ...

2016-08-03

In our paper we study a (1+1)-dimensional version of the famous Nambu–Jona-Lasinio model of quantum chromodynamics (QCD2) both at zero and at finite baryon density. We use nonperturbative techniques (non-Abelian bosonization and the truncated conformal spectrum approach). When the baryon chemical potential, μ, is zero, we describe the formation of fermion three-quark (nucleons and Δ baryons) and boson (two-quark mesons, six-quark deuterons) bound states. We also study at μ=0 the formation of a topologically nontrivial phase. When the chemical potential exceeds the critical value and a finite baryon density appears, the model has a rich phase diagram which includes phasesmore » with a density wave and superfluid quasi-long-range (QLR) order, as well as a phase of a baryon Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid (strange metal). Finally, the QLR order results in either a condensation of scalar mesons (the density wave) or six-quark bound states (deuterons).« less

Access to Transportation and Health Care Visits for Medicaid Enrollees With Diabetes.

PubMed

Thomas, Leela V; Wedel, Kenneth R; Christopher, Jan E

2018-03-01

Diabetes is a chronic condition that requires frequent health care visits for its management. Individuals without nonemergency medical transportation often miss appointments and do not receive optimal care. This study aims to evaluate the association between Medicaid-provided nonemergency medical transportation and diabetes care visits. A retrospective analysis was conducted of demographic and claims data obtained from the Oklahoma Medicaid program. Participants consisted of Medicaid enrollees with diabetes who made at least 1 visit for diabetes care in a year. The sample was predominantly female and white, with an average age of 46.38 years. Two zero-truncated Poisson regression models were estimated to assess the independent effect of transportation use on number of diabetes care visits. Use of nonemergency medical transportation is a significant predictor of diabetes care visits. Zero-truncated Poisson regression coefficients showed a positive association between the use of transportation and number of visits (0.6563, P < .001). Age, gender, race/ethnicity, area of residence, and presence of additional chronic conditions had independent associations with number of visits. Older enrollees were likely to make more visits than younger enrollees with diabetes (0.02382); controlling for all other factors in the model, rural residents made more visits than urban; women made fewer visits than men (-0.09312; P < .001); and minorities made fewer visits than whites, with pronounced differences for Hispanics and Asians compared to whites. Findings underscore the importance of ensuring transportation to Medicaid populations with diabetes, particularly in the rural areas where the prevalence of diabetes and complications are higher and the availability of medical resources lower than in the urban areas. © 2017 National Rural Health Association.

Antigen-capture blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on a baculovirus recombinant antigen to differentiate Transmissible gastroenteritis virus from Porcine respiratory coronavirus antibodies.

PubMed

López, Lissett; Venteo, Angel; García, Marga; Camuñas, Ana; Ranz, Ana; García, Julia; Sarraseca, Javier; Anaya, Carmen; Rueda, Paloma

2009-09-01

A new commercially available antigen-capture, blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (antigen-capture b-ELISA), based on baculovirus truncated-S recombinant protein of Transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and 3 specific monoclonal antibodies, was developed and evaluated by examining a panel of 453 positive Porcine respiratory coronavirus (PRCoV), 31 positive TGEV, and 126 negative field sera by using another commercially available differential coronavirus b-ELISA as the reference technique to differentiate TGEV- from PRCoV-induced antibodies. The recombinant S protein-based ELISA appeared to be 100% sensitive for TGEV and PRCoV detection and highly specific for TGEV and PRCoV detection (100% and 92.06%, respectively), when qualitative results (positive or negative) were compared with those of the reference technique. In variability experiments, the ELISA gave consistent results when the same serum was evaluated on different wells and different plates. These results indicated that truncated recombinant S protein is a suitable alternative to the complete virus as antigen in ELISA assays. The use of recombinant S protein as antigen offers great advantages because it is an easy-to-produce, easy-to-standardize, noninfectious antigen that does not require further purification or concentration. Those advantages represent an important improvement for antigen preparation, in comparison with other assays in which an inactivated virus from mammalian cell cultures is used.

Incorporating Truncating Variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM into the BOADICEA Breast Cancer Risk Model

PubMed Central

Lee, Andrew J.; Cunningham, Alex P.; Tischkowitz, Marc; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D.; Easton, Douglas F.; Antoniou, Antonis C.

2016-01-01

Purpose The proliferation of gene-panel testing precipitates the need for a breast cancer (BC) risk model that incorporates the effects of mutations in several genes and family history (FH). We extended the BOADICEA model to incorporate the effects of truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM. Methods The BC incidence was modelled via the explicit effects of truncating variants in BRCA1/2, PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM and other unobserved genetic effects using segregation analysis methods. Results The predicted average BC risk by age 80 for an ATM mutation carrier is 28%, 30% for CHEK2, 50% for PALB2, 74% for BRCA1 and BRCA2. However, the BC risks are predicted to increase with FH-burden. In families with mutations, predicted risks for mutation-negative members depend on both FH and the specific mutation. The reduction in BC risk after negative predictive-testing is greatest when a BRCA1 mutation is identified in the family, but for women whose relatives carry a CHEK2 or ATM mutation, the risks decrease slightly. Conclusions The model may be a valuable tool for counselling women who have undergone gene-panel testing for providing consistent risks and harmonizing their clinical management. A web-application can be used to obtain BC- risks in clinical practice (http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/). PMID:27464310

Incorporating truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM into the BOADICEA breast cancer risk model.

PubMed

Lee, Andrew J; Cunningham, Alex P; Tischkowitz, Marc; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D; Easton, Douglas F; Antoniou, Antonis C

2016-12-01

The proliferation of gene panel testing precipitates the need for a breast cancer (BC) risk model that incorporates the effects of mutations in several genes and family history (FH). We extended the BOADICEA model to incorporate the effects of truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM. The BC incidence was modeled via the explicit effects of truncating variants in BRCA1/2, PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM and other unobserved genetic effects using segregation analysis methods. The predicted average BC risk by age 80 for an ATM mutation carrier is 28%, 30% for CHEK2, 50% for PALB2, and 74% for BRCA1 and BRCA2. However, the BC risks are predicted to increase with FH burden. In families with mutations, predicted risks for mutation-negative members depend on both FH and the specific mutation. The reduction in BC risk after negative predictive testing is greatest when a BRCA1 mutation is identified in the family, but for women whose relatives carry a CHEK2 or ATM mutation, the risks decrease slightly. The model may be a valuable tool for counseling women who have undergone gene panel testing for providing consistent risks and harmonizing their clinical management. A Web application can be used to obtain BC risks in clinical practice (http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/).Genet Med 18 12, 1190-1198.

Determination of refractive index of a simple negative, positive, or zero power lens using wedged plated interferometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, R. P.; Perera, G. M.; George, M. C.; Venkateswarlu, P.

1990-01-01

A nondestructive technique for measuring the refractive index of a negative lens using a wedged plate interferometer is described. The method can be also used for measuring the refractive index of convex or zero power lenses. Schematic diagrams are presented for the use of a wedged plate interferometer for measuring the refractive index of a concave lens and of a convex lens.

Factorials of real negative and imaginary numbers - A new perspective.

PubMed

Thukral, Ashwani K

2014-01-01

Presently, factorials of real negative numbers and imaginary numbers, except for zero and negative integers are interpolated using the Euler's gamma function. In the present paper, the concept of factorials has been generalised as applicable to real and imaginary numbers, and multifactorials. New functions based on Euler's factorial function have been proposed for the factorials of real negative and imaginary numbers. As per the present concept, the factorials of real negative numbers, are complex numbers. The factorials of real negative integers have their imaginary part equal to zero, thus are real numbers. Similarly, the factorials of imaginary numbers are complex numbers. The moduli of the complex factorials of real negative numbers, and imaginary numbers are equal to their respective real positive number factorials. Fractional factorials and multifactorials have been defined in a new perspective. The proposed concept has also been extended to Euler's gamma function for real negative numbers and imaginary numbers, and beta function.

Resources predicting positive and negative affect during the experience of stress: a study of older Asian Indian immigrants in the United States.

PubMed

Diwan, Sadhna; Jonnalagadda, Satya S; Balaswamy, Shantha

2004-10-01

Using the life stress model of psychological well-being, in this study we examined risks and resources predicting the occurrence of both positive and negative affect among older Asian Indian immigrants who experienced stressful life events. We collected data through a telephone survey of 226 respondents (aged 50 years and older) in the Southeastern United States. We used hierarchical, negative binomial regression analyses to examine correlates of positive and negative affect. Different coping resources influenced positive and negative affect when stressful life events were controlled for. Being female was a common risk factor for poorer positive and increased negative affect. Satisfaction with friendships and a cultural or ethnic identity that is either bicultural or more American were predictive of greater positive affect. Greater religiosity and increased mastery were resources predicting less negative affect. Cognitive and structural interventions that increase opportunities for social integration, increasing mastery, and addressing spiritual concerns are discussed as ways of coping with stress to improve the well-being of individuals in this immigrant community.

Distribution of chewing lice upon the polygynous peacock Pavo cristatus.

PubMed

Stewart, I R; Clark, F; Petrie, M

1996-04-01

An opportunistic survey of louse distribution upon the peacock Pavo cristatus was undertaken following a cull of 23 birds from an English zoo. After complete skin and feather dissolution, 2 species of lice were retrieved, Goniodes pavonis and Amyrsidea minuta. The distribution of both louse species could be described by a negative binomial model. The significance of this is discussed in relation to transmission dynamics of lice in the atypical avian mating system found in the peacock, which involves no male parental care.

Care Utilization with China's New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme: Updated Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011-2012.

PubMed

Zhang, Donglan; Shi, Lu; Tian, Fang; Zhang, Lingling

2016-12-01

China's New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NRCMS), a healthcare financing system for rural residents in China, underwent significant enhancement since 2008. Studies based on pre-2008 NRCMS data showed an increase in inpatient care utilization after NRCMS coverage. However evidence was mixed for the relationship between outpatient care use and NRCMS coverage. We assessed whether enrollment in the enhanced NRCMS was associated with less delaying or foregoing medical care, as a reduction in foregoing needed care signals about removing liquidity constraint among the enrollees. Using a national sample of rural residents (N = 12,740) from the 2011-2012 wave of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we examined the association between NRCMS coverage and the likelihood of delaying or foregoing medical care (outpatient and inpatient) by survey-weighted regression models controlling for demographics, education, geographic regions, household expenditures, pre-existing chronic diseases, and access to local healthcare facilities. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to estimate the association between NRCMS coverage and number of medical visits. NRCMS coverage was significantly associated with lower odds of delaying or foregoing inpatient care (OR: 0.42, 95 % CI: 0.22-0.81). A negative but insignificant association was found between NRCMS coverage and delaying/foregoing outpatient care when ill. Among those who needed health care, the expected number of outpatient visits for NRCMS enrollees was 1.35 (95 % CI: 1.03-1.77) times of those uninsured, and the expected number of inpatient visits for NRCMS enrollees was 1.83 (95 % CI: 1.16-2.88) times of those uninsured. This study shows that the enhanced NRCMS coverage was associated with less delaying or foregoing inpatient care deemed as necessary by health professionals, which is likely to result from improved financial reimbursement of the NRCMS.

A Novel Method to Screen for Dominant Negative ATM Mutations in Familial Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

carry dominant negative mutation in ATM due to natural variation amongst LCLs. Microarrays have been performed to determine differences in gene expression... genes that are altered in their expression in ATMmutation carriers. The validation of this data in carriers of different ATM mutation indicated that the...heterozygous carriers of T727 1 G mutation display a gene expression phenotype that appears identical to carriers of protein truncating mutations in

Expression and characterization of an N-truncated form of the NifA protein of Azospirillum brasilense.

PubMed

Nishikawa, C Y; Araújo, L M; Kadowaki, M A S; Monteiro, R A; Steffens, M B R; Pedrosa, F O; Souza, E M; Chubatsu, L S

2012-02-01

Azospirillum brasilense is a nitrogen-fixing bacterium associated with important agricultural crops such as rice, wheat and maize. The expression of genes responsible for nitrogen fixation (nif genes) in this bacterium is dependent on the transcriptional activator NifA. This protein contains three structural domains: the N-terminal domain is responsible for the negative control by fixed nitrogen; the central domain interacts with the RNA polymerase σ(54) co-factor and the C-terminal domain is involved in DNA binding. The central and C-terminal domains are linked by the interdomain linker (IDL). A conserved four-cysteine motif encompassing the end of the central domain and the IDL is probably involved in the oxygen-sensitivity of NifA. In the present study, we have expressed, purified and characterized an N-truncated form of A. brasilense NifA. The protein expression was carried out in Escherichia coli and the N-truncated NifA protein was purified by chromatography using an affinity metal-chelating resin followed by a heparin-bound resin. Protein homogeneity was determined by densitometric analysis. The N-truncated protein activated in vivo nifH::lacZ transcription regardless of fixed nitrogen concentration (absence or presence of 20 mM NH(4)Cl) but only under low oxygen levels. On the other hand, the aerobically purified N-truncated NifA protein bound to the nifB promoter, as demonstrated by an electrophoretic mobility shift assay, implying that DNA-binding activity is not strictly controlled by oxygen levels. Our data show that, while the N-truncated NifA is inactive in vivo under aerobic conditions, it still retains DNA-binding activity, suggesting that the oxidized form of NifA bound to DNA is not competent to activate transcription.

Expression and characterization of an N-truncated form of the NifA protein of Azospirillum brasilense

PubMed Central

Nishikawa, C.Y.; Araújo, L.M.; Kadowaki, M.A.S.; Monteiro, R.A.; Steffens, M.B.R.; Pedrosa, F.O.; Souza, E.M.; Chubatsu, L.S.

2012-01-01

Azospirillum brasilense is a nitrogen-fixing bacterium associated with important agricultural crops such as rice, wheat and maize. The expression of genes responsible for nitrogen fixation (nif genes) in this bacterium is dependent on the transcriptional activator NifA. This protein contains three structural domains: the N-terminal domain is responsible for the negative control by fixed nitrogen; the central domain interacts with the RNA polymerase σ54 factor and the C-terminal domain is involved in DNA binding. The central and C-terminal domains are linked by the interdomain linker (IDL). A conserved four-cysteine motif encompassing the end of the central domain and the IDL is probably involved in the oxygen-sensitivity of NifA. In the present study, we have expressed, purified and characterized an N-truncated form of A. brasilense NifA. The protein expression was carried out in Escherichia coli and the N-truncated NifA protein was purified by chromatography using an affinity metal-chelating resin followed by a heparin-bound resin. Protein homogeneity was determined by densitometric analysis. The N-truncated protein activated in vivo nifH::lacZ transcription regardless of fixed nitrogen concentration (absence or presence of 20 mM NH4Cl) but only under low oxygen levels. On the other hand, the aerobically purified N-truncated NifA protein bound to the nifB promoter, as demonstrated by an electrophoretic mobility shift assay, implying that DNA-binding activity is not strictly controlled by oxygen levels. Our data show that, while the N-truncated NifA is inactive in vivo under aerobic conditions, it still retains DNA-binding activity, suggesting that the oxidized form of NifA bound to DNA is not competent to activate transcription. PMID:22267004

Rare, protein-truncating variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2, but not XRCC2, are associated with increased breast cancer risks

PubMed Central

Decker, Brennan; Allen, Jamie; Luccarini, Craig; Pooley, Karen A; Shah, Mitul; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Ahmed, Shahana; Baynes, Caroline; Conroy, Don M; Brown, Judith; Luben, Robert; Ostrander, Elaine A; Pharoah, Paul DP; Dunning, Alison M; Easton, Douglas F

2017-01-01

Background Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy in women and has a major heritable component. The risks associated with most rare susceptibility variants are not well estimated. To better characterise the contribution of variants in ATM, CHEK2, PALB2 and XRCC2, we sequenced their coding regions in 13 087 BC cases and 5488 controls from East Anglia, UK. Methods Gene coding regions were enriched via PCR, sequenced, variant called and filtered for quality. ORs for BC risk were estimated separately for carriers of truncating variants and of rare missense variants, which were further subdivided by functional domain and pathogenicity as predicted by four in silico algorithms. Results Truncating variants in PALB2 (OR=4.69, 95% CI 2.27 to 9.68), ATM (OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.82 to 6.46) and CHEK2 (OR=3.11; 95% CI 2.15 to 4.69), but not XRCC2 (OR=0.94; 95% CI 0.26 to 4.19) were associated with increased BC risk. Truncating variants in ATM and CHEK2 were more strongly associated with risk of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive than ER-negative disease, while those in PALB2 were associated with similar risks for both subtypes. There was also some evidence that missense variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2 may contribute to BC risk, but larger studies are necessary to quantify the magnitude of this effect. Conclusions Truncating variants in PALB2 are associated with a higher risk of BC than those in ATM or CHEK2. A substantial risk of BC due to truncating XRCC2 variants can be excluded. PMID:28779002

Problems on Divisibility of Binomial Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osler, Thomas J.; Smoak, James

2004-01-01

Twelve unusual problems involving divisibility of the binomial coefficients are represented in this article. The problems are listed in "The Problems" section. All twelve problems have short solutions which are listed in "The Solutions" section. These problems could be assigned to students in any course in which the binomial theorem and Pascal's…

Application of binomial-edited CPMG to shale characterization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Washburn, Kathryn E.; Birdwell, Justin E.

2014-01-01

Unconventional shale resources may contain a significant amount of hydrogen in organic solids such as kerogen, but it is not possible to directly detect these solids with many NMR systems. Binomial-edited pulse sequences capitalize on magnetization transfer between solids, semi-solids, and liquids to provide an indirect method of detecting solid organic materials in shales. When the organic solids can be directly measured, binomial-editing helps distinguish between different phases. We applied a binomial-edited CPMG pulse sequence to a range of natural and experimentally-altered shale samples. The most substantial signal loss is seen in shales rich in organic solids while fluids associated with inorganic pores seem essentially unaffected. This suggests that binomial-editing is a potential method for determining fluid locations, solid organic content, and kerogen–bitumen discrimination.

Drought impact functions as intermediate step towards drought damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie; Helm Smith, Kelly; Svoboda, Mark; Stahl, Kerstin

2016-04-01

While damage or vulnerability functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is comparably little knowledge on drought damage or loss. On the one hand this is due to the complexity of the drought hazard affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity. Hence, a single hazard indicator is likely not able to fully capture this multifaceted hazard. On the other hand, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetize. Examples are impaired navigability of streams, restrictions on domestic water use, reduced hydropower production, reduced tree growth, and irreversible deterioration/loss of wetlands. Apart from reduced crop yield, data about drought damage or loss with adequate spatial and temporal resolution is scarce, making the development of drought damage functions difficult. As an intermediate step towards drought damage functions we exploit text-based reports on drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter to derive surrogate information for drought damage or loss. First, text-based information on drought impacts is converted into timeseries of absence versus presence of impacts, or number of impact occurrences. Second, meaningful hydro-meteorological indicators characterizing drought intensity are identified. Third, different statistical models are tested as link functions relating drought hazard indicators with drought impacts: 1) logistic regression for drought impacts coded as binary response variable; and 2) mixture/hurdle models (zero-inflated/zero-altered negative binomial regression) and an ensemble regression tree approach for modeling the number of drought impact occurrences. Testing the predictability of (number of) drought impact occurrences based on cross-validation revealed a good agreement between observed and modeled (number of) impacts for regions at the scale of federal states or provinces with good data availability. Impact functions representing localized drought impacts are more challenging to construct given that less data is available, yet may provide information that more directly addresses stakeholders' needs. Overall, our study contributes insights into how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and how such information may be used for enhancing drought monitoring and early warning.

Genomic analysis of diffuse pediatric low-grade gliomas identifies recurrent oncogenic truncating rearrangements in the transcription factor MYBL1

PubMed Central

Ramkissoon, Lori A.; Horowitz, Peleg M.; Craig, Justin M.; Ramkissoon, Shakti H.; Rich, Benjamin E.; Schumacher, Steven E.; McKenna, Aaron; Lawrence, Michael S.; Bergthold, Guillaume; Brastianos, Priscilla K.; Tabak, Barbara; Ducar, Matthew D.; Van Hummelen, Paul; MacConaill, Laura E.; Pouissant-Young, Tina; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Taha, Hala; Mahmoud, Madeha; Bowers, Daniel C.; Margraf, Linda; Tabori, Uri; Hawkins, Cynthia; Packer, Roger J.; Hill, D. Ashley; Pomeroy, Scott L.; Eberhart, Charles G.; Dunn, Ian F.; Goumnerova, Liliana; Getz, Gad; Chan, Jennifer A.; Santagata, Sandro; Hahn, William C.; Stiles, Charles D.; Ligon, Azra H.; Kieran, Mark W.; Beroukhim, Rameen; Ligon, Keith L.

2013-01-01

Pediatric low-grade gliomas (PLGGs) are among the most common solid tumors in children but, apart from BRAF kinase mutations or duplications in specific subclasses, few genetic driver events are known. Diffuse PLGGs comprise a set of uncommon subtypes that exhibit invasive growth and are therefore especially challenging clinically. We performed high-resolution copy-number analysis on 44 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded diffuse PLGGs to identify recurrent alterations. Diffuse PLGGs exhibited fewer such alterations than adult low-grade gliomas, but we identified several significantly recurrent events. The most significant event, 8q13.1 gain, was observed in 28% of diffuse astrocytoma grade IIs and resulted in partial duplication of the transcription factor MYBL1 with truncation of its C-terminal negative-regulatory domain. A similar recurrent deletion-truncation breakpoint was identified in two angiocentric gliomas in the related gene v-myb avian myeloblastosis viral oncogene homolog (MYB) on 6q23.3. Whole-genome sequencing of a MYBL1-rearranged diffuse astrocytoma grade II demonstrated MYBL1 tandem duplication and few other events. Truncated MYBL1 transcripts identified in this tumor induced anchorage-independent growth in 3T3 cells and tumor formation in nude mice. Truncated transcripts were also expressed in two additional tumors with MYBL1 partial duplication. Our results define clinically relevant molecular subclasses of diffuse PLGGs and highlight a potential role for the MYB family in the biology of low-grade gliomas. PMID:23633565

WNK4 enhances the degradation of NCC through a sortilin-mediated lysosomal pathway.

PubMed

Zhou, Bo; Zhuang, Jieqiu; Gu, Dingying; Wang, Hua; Cebotaru, Liudmila; Guggino, William B; Cai, Hui

2010-01-01

WNK kinase is a serine/threonine kinase that plays an important role in electrolyte homeostasis. WNK4 significantly inhibits the surface expression of the sodium chloride co-transporter (NCC) by enhancing the degradation of NCC through a lysosomal pathway, but the mechanisms underlying this trafficking are unknown. Here, we investigated the effect of the lysosomal targeting receptor sortilin on NCC expression and degradation. In Cos-7 cells, we observed that the presence of WNK4 reduced the steady-state amount of NCC by approximately half. Co-transfection with truncated sortilin (a dominant negative mutant) prevented this WNK4-induced reduction in NCC. NCC immunoprecipitated with both wild-type sortilin and, to a lesser extent, truncated sortilin. Immunostaining revealed that WNK4 increased the co-localization of NCC with the lysosomal marker cathepsin D, and NCC co-localized with wild-type sortilin, truncated sortilin, and WNK4 in the perinuclear region. These findings suggest that WNK4 promotes NCC targeting to the lysosome for degradation via a mechanism involving sortilin.

Optimization and validation of indirect ELISA using truncated TssB protein for the serodiagnosis of glanders amongst equines.

PubMed

Singha, Harisankar; Malik, Praveen; Goyal, Sachin K; Khurana, Sandip K; Mukhopadhyay, Chiranjay; Eshwara, Vandana K; Singh, Raj K

2014-01-01

To express truncated TssB protein of Burkholderia mallei and to evaluate its diagnostic efficacy for serological detection of glanders among equines. In an attempt to develop recombinant protein based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), N-terminal 200 amino acid sequences of B. mallei TssB protein-a type 6 secretory effector protein--were expressed in prokaryotic expression system. Diagnostic potential of recombinant TssB protein was evaluated in indirect ELISA using a panel of glanders positive (n = 49), negative (n = 30), and field serum samples (n = 1811). Cross-reactivity of the assay was assessed with equine disease control serum and human melioidosis positive serum. In comparison to CFT, diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of ELISA were 99.7% and 100%, respectively. The indirect ELISA method using the truncated TssB offered safer and more rapid and efficient means of serodiagnosis of glanders in equines. These data highlight the use of TssB as potential diagnostic antigen for serological diagnosis of glanders.

A Three-Parameter Generalisation of the Beta-Binomial Distribution with Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

York. Rust, R.T. and Klompmaker, J.E. (1981). Improving the estimation procedure for the beta binomial t.v. exposure model. Journal of Marketing ... Research . 18, 442-448. Sabavala, D.J. and Morrison, D.G. (1977). Television show loyalty: a beta- binomial model using recall data. Journal of Advertiuing

Magnetic dynamo action in two-dimensional turbulent magneto-hydrodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fyfe, D.; Joyce, G.; Montgomery, D.

1977-01-01

Two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence is explored by means of numerical simulation. Previous analytical theory, based on non-dissipative constants of the motion in a truncated Fourier representation, is verified by following the evolution of highly non-equilibrium initial conditions numerically. Dynamo action (conversion of a significant fraction of turbulent kinetic energy into long-wavelength magnetic field energy) is observed. It is conjectured that in the presence of dissipation and external forcing, a dual cascade will be observed for zero-helicity situations. Energy will cascade to higher wavenumbers simultaneously with a cascade of mean square vector potential to lower wavenumbers, leading to an omni-directional magnetic energy spectrum.

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S.

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band.

Association of Maternal Depressive Symptoms and Offspring Physical Health in Low-Income Families.

PubMed

Thompson, Sarah M; Jiang, Lu; Hammen, Constance; Whaley, Shannon E

2018-06-01

Objectives The present study sought to examine the association between maternal depressive symptoms and characteristics of offspring physical health, including health status, health behaviors, and healthcare utilization, among low-income families. Maternal engagement was explored as a mediator of observed effects. Methods Cross-sectional survey data from a community sample of 4589 low-income women and their preschool-age children participating in the WIC program in Los Angeles County were analyzed using logistic, Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Mediation was tested via conditional process analyses. Results After controlling for the effects of demographic characteristics including maternal health insurance coverage, employment status, education, and preferred language, children of depressed women (N = 1025) were significantly more likely than children of non-depressed women (N = 3564) to receive a "poor" or "fair" maternal rating of general health (OR 2.34), eat fewer vegetables (IRR: 0.94) more sweets (IRR: 1.20) and sugary drinks daily (IRR: 1.32), and consume fast food more often (OR 1.21). These children were also less likely to have health insurance (OR 1.59) and more likely to receive medical care from a public medical clinic or hospital emergency room (OR 1.30). Reduced maternal engagement partially mediated associations between maternal depressive symptoms and several child health outcomes including poor diet, health insurance coverage, and use of public medical services. Conclusions for Practice Maternal depressive symptoms are associated with poor health among preschool-age children in low-income families. Prevention, screening, and treatment efforts aimed at reducing the prevalence of maternal depression may positively affect young children's health.

Depression and Alcohol Use in a National Sample of Hispanic Adolescents.

PubMed

Merianos, Ashley L; Swoboda, Christopher M; Oluwoye, Oladunni A; Gilreath, Tamika D; Unger, Jennifer B

2018-04-16

Underage alcohol use and depression remain public health concerns for Hispanic adolescents nationwide. The study purpose was to identify the profiles of depression among Hispanic adolescents who reported experiencing depressive symptoms in their lifetime and classify them into groups based on their symptoms. Based on classifications, we examined the relationship between past year alcohol use and severity of depressive symptoms while controlling for sex and age. A secondary analysis of the 2013 NSDUH was conducted among Hispanic adolescents from 12 to 17 years of age (n = 585) who reported experiencing depressive symptoms. Latent class analysis was used to identify latent classes of depressive symptoms among Hispanic adolescents. A zero-inflated negative-binomial regression model was used to examine the relationship between alcohol use and depressive symptoms. "High depressive" and "moderate depressive" classes were formed. The items that highly differentiated among the groups were felt worthless nearly every day, others noticed they were restless or lethargic, and had changes in appetite or weight. There was a significant difference (p = 0.03) between the classes based on alcohol use; those in the moderate depressive class were 1.71 times more likely to be identified as not reporting past alcohol use. Results indicated the high depressive class was estimated to have 1.62 more days of past year alcohol use than those in the moderate depressive class for adolescents who used alcohol (p < 0.001). Conclusions/Importance: Study findings can be used to address these significant public health issues impacting Hispanic adolescents. Recommendations are included.

Out-of-pocket costs for cancer survivors between 5 and 10 years from diagnosis: an Italian population-based study.

PubMed

Baili, Paolo; Di Salvo, Francesca; de Lorenzo, Francesco; Maietta, Francesco; Pinto, Carmine; Rizzotto, Vera; Vicentini, Massimo; Rossi, Paolo Giorgi; Tumino, Rosario; Rollo, Patrizia Concetta; Tagliabue, Giovanna; Contiero, Paolo; Candela, Pina; Scuderi, Tiziana; Iannelli, Elisabetta; Cascinu, Stefano; Aurora, Fulvio; Agresti, Roberto; Turco, Alberto; Sant, Milena; Meneghini, Elisabetta; Micheli, Andrea

2016-05-01

To illustrate the out-of-pocket (OOP) costs incurred by a population-based group of patients from 5 to 10 years since their cancer diagnosis in a country with a nationwide public health system. Interviews on OOP costs to a sample of 5-10 year prevalent cases randomly extracted from four population-based cancer registries (CRs), two in the north and two in the south of Italy. The patients' general practitioners (GPs) gave assurance about the patient's physical and psychological condition for the interview. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to analyze OOP cost determinants. Two hundred six cancer patients were interviewed (48 % of the original sample). On average, a patient in the north spent €69 monthly, against €244 in the south. The main differences are for transport, room, and board (TRB) to reach the hospital and/or the cancer specialist (north €0; south €119). Everywhere, OOP costs without TRB costs were higher for patients with a low quality of life. Despite the limited participation, our study sample's characteristics are similar to those of the Italian cancer prevalence population, allowing us to generalize the results. The higher OOP costs in the south may be due to the scarcity of oncologic structures, obliging patients to seek assistance far from their residence. Implications for cancer survivors Cancer survivors need descriptive studies to show realistic data about their status. Future Italian and European descriptive studies on cancer survivorship should be based on population CRs and involve GPs in order to approach the patient at best.

Absence of a moderating effect of parent health literacy on Early Head Start enrollment and dental use.

PubMed

Burgette, Jacqueline M; Preisser, John S; Weinberger, Morris; King, Rebecca S; Lee, Jessica Y; Rozier, R Gary

2018-04-16

To examine the moderating effect of parents' health literacy (HL) on the effectiveness of North Carolina Early Head Start (EHS) in improving children's dental use. Parents of 479 children enrolled in EHS and 699 Medicaid-matched parent-child dyads were interviewed at baseline when children were approximately 10 months old and 24 months later. We used in-person computer-assisted, structured interviews to collect information on sociodemographic characteristics, dental use, and administer the Short Assessment of Health Literacy - Spanish and English (SAHL-S&E). This quasi-experimental study tested whether the interaction effect between EHS and parents' HL was associated with dental use. Logit (any use) and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial count models (number of dental visits) included random effects to account for clustering and controlled for baseline dental use, dental need, survey language, and a propensity score covariate. Nineteen percent of parents in EHS had low literacy compared to 12 percent of parents in the non-EHS group (P < 0.01). The interaction term between EHS and parent's HL was not significant in the adjusted logit model (ratio of aORs 0.98, 95 percent CI: 0.43-2.20) or the adjusted count model (ratio of aRRs 0.88, 95 percent CI: 0.72-1.09). Parents in EHS had a higher prevalence of low HL compared to non-EHS parents. Parents' HL did not moderate the relationship between EHS and child dental use, suggesting that EHS results in similar improvements in dental use regardless of parent's HL levels. © 2018 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy, Prematurity and Recurrent Wheezing in Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Robison, Rachel G; Kumar, Rajesh; Arguelles, Lester M; Hong, Xiumei; Wang, Guoying; Apollon, Stephanie; Bonzagni, Anthony; Ortiz, Kathryn; Pearson, Colleen; Pongracic, Jacqueline A; Wang, Xiaobin

2013-01-01

Summary Background Prenatal maternal smoking and prematurity independently affect wheezing and asthma in childhood. Objective We sought to evaluate the interactive effects of maternal smoking and prematurity upon the development of early childhood wheezing. Methods We evaluated 1448 children with smoke exposure data from a prospective urban birth cohort in Boston. Maternal antenatal and postnatal exposure was determined from standardized questionnaires. Gestational age was assessed by the first day of the last menstrual period and early prenatal ultrasound (preterm<37 weeks gestation). Wheezing episodes were determined from medical record extraction of well and ill/unscheduled visits. The primary outcome was recurrent wheezing, defined as ≥ 4 episodes of physician documented wheezing. Logistic regression models and zero inflated negative binomial regression (for number of episodes of wheeze) assessed the independent and joint association of prematurity and maternal antenatal smoking on recurrent wheeze, controlling for relevant covariates. Results In the cohort, 90 (6%) children had recurrent wheezing, 147 (10%) were exposed to in utero maternal smoke and 419 (29%) were premature. Prematurity (odds ratio [OR] 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.1) was associated with an increased risk of recurrent wheezing, but in utero maternal smoking was not (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.5-2.4). Jointly, maternal smoke exposure and prematurity caused an increased risk of recurrent wheezing (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.8-8.0). There was an interaction between prematurity and maternal smoking upon episodes of wheezing (p=0.049). Conclusions We demonstrated an interaction between maternal smoking during pregnancy and prematurity on childhood wheezing in this urban, multiethnic birth cohort. PMID:22290763

Personal care services provided to children with special health care needs (CSHCN) and their subsequent use of physician services.

PubMed

Miller, Thomas R; Elliott, Timothy R; McMaughan, Darcy M; Patnaik, Ashweeta; Naiser, Emily; Dyer, James A; Fournier, Constance J; Hawes, Catherine; Phillips, Charles D

2013-10-01

Medicaid Personal Care Services (PCS) help families meet children's needs for assistance with functional tasks. However, PCS may have other effects on a child's well-being, but research has not yet established the existence of such effects. To investigate the relationship between the number of PCS hours a child receives with subsequent visits to physicians for evaluation and management (E&M) services. Assessment data for 2058 CSHCN receiving PCS were collected in 2008 and 2009. Assessment data were matched with Medicaid claims data for the period of 1 year after the assessment. Zero-inflated negative binomial and generalized linear multivariate regression models were used in the analyses. These models included patient demographics, health status, household resources, and use of other medical services. For every 10 additional PCS hours authorized for a child, the odds of having an E&M physician visit in the next year were reduced by 25%. However, the number of PCS hours did not have a significant effect on the number of visits by those children who did have a subsequent E&M visit. A variety of demographic and health status measures also affect physician use. Medicaid PCS for CSHCN may be associated with reduced physician usage because of benefits realized by continuity of care, the early identification of potential health threats, or family and patient education. PCS services may contribute to a child's well-being by providing continuous relationships with the care team that promote good chronic disease management, education, and support for the family. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reduced Feeding Tube Duration with IMRT for Head and Neck Cancer: A SEER-Medicare Analysis

PubMed Central

Beadle, Beth M.; Liao, Kai-Ping; Giordano, Sharon H.; Garden, Adam S.; Hutcheson, Katherine A.; Lai, Stephen Y.; Guadagnolo, B. Ashleigh

2016-01-01

Background Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is a technologically advanced and resource-intensive method of delivering radiation therapy (RT) used to minimize toxicity for patients with head and neck cancers (HNC). Dependence on feeding tubes is a significant marker of toxicity of RT. The goal of this analysis was to compare the placement and duration of feeding tube use for patients with HNC from 1999-2011. Methods The cohort, demographics, and cancer-related variables were determined using the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database and analyzed regarding treatment details using claims data. Results A total of 2993 patients were identified. With a median follow-up of 47 months, 54.4% of patients had a feeding tube placed. The median duration from feeding tube placement to removal was 277 days. On zero-inflated negative binomial regression, patients treated with IMRT and 3DRT (non-IMRT) had similar rates of feeding tube placement (odds ratio (OR) 1.10; p=.35); however, patients treated with 3DRT had the feeding tube in place 1.18 times longer than those treated with IMRT (p=.03). The difference was only seen amongst patients treated with definitive radiation; patients treated with surgery and adjuvant radiation had no statistically significant difference in placement or duration. Conclusions Patients with HNC treated with definitive IMRT had significantly shorter duration of feeding tubes in place than those treated with 3DRT. These data suggest that there may be significant quality of life benefits to IMRT with respect to long-term swallowing function for patients. PMID:27662641

QMRA for Drinking Water: 2. The Effect of Pathogen Clustering in Single-Hit Dose-Response Models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Vegard; Wyller, John

2016-01-01

Spatial and/or temporal clustering of pathogens will invalidate the commonly used assumption of Poisson-distributed pathogen counts (doses) in quantitative microbial risk assessment. In this work, the theoretically predicted effect of spatial clustering in conventional "single-hit" dose-response models is investigated by employing the stuttering Poisson distribution, a very general family of count distributions that naturally models pathogen clustering and contains the Poisson and negative binomial distributions as special cases. The analysis is facilitated by formulating the dose-response models in terms of probability generating functions. It is shown formally that the theoretical single-hit risk obtained with a stuttering Poisson distribution is lower than that obtained with a Poisson distribution, assuming identical mean doses. A similar result holds for mixed Poisson distributions. Numerical examples indicate that the theoretical single-hit risk is fairly insensitive to moderate clustering, though the effect tends to be more pronounced for low mean doses. Furthermore, using Jensen's inequality, an upper bound on risk is derived that tends to better approximate the exact theoretical single-hit risk for highly overdispersed dose distributions. The bound holds with any dose distribution (characterized by its mean and zero inflation index) and any conditional dose-response model that is concave in the dose variable. Its application is exemplified with published data from Norovirus feeding trials, for which some of the administered doses were prepared from an inoculum of aggregated viruses. The potential implications of clustering for dose-response assessment as well as practical risk characterization are discussed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Suboptimal Herd Performance Amplifies the Spread of Infectious Disease in the Cattle Industry

PubMed Central

Gates, M. Carolyn; Woolhouse, Mark E. J.

2014-01-01

Farms that purchase replacement breeding cattle are at increased risk of introducing many economically important diseases. The objectives of this analysis were to determine whether the total number of replacement breeding cattle purchased by individual farms could be reduced by improving herd performance and to quantify the effects of such reductions on the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases. Detailed information on the performance and contact patterns of British cattle herds was extracted from the national cattle movement database as a case example. Approximately 69% of beef herds and 59% of dairy herds with an average of at least 20 recorded calvings per year purchased at least one replacement breeding animal. Results from zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed that herds with high average ages at first calving, prolonged calving intervals, abnormally high or low culling rates, and high calf mortality rates were generally more likely to be open herds and to purchase greater numbers of replacement breeding cattle. If all herds achieved the same level of performance as the top 20% of herds, the total number of replacement beef and dairy cattle purchased could be reduced by an estimated 34% and 51%, respectively. Although these purchases accounted for only 13% of between-herd contacts in the industry trade network, they were found to have a disproportionately strong influence on disease transmission dynamics. These findings suggest that targeting extension services at herds with suboptimal performance may be an effective strategy for controlling endemic cattle diseases while simultaneously improving industry productivity. PMID:24671129

Evaluation of Alcohol-Related Personalized Normative Feedback With and Without an Injunctive Message

PubMed Central

Steers, Mai-Ly N.; Coffman, Amelia D.; Wickham, Robert E.; Bryan, Jennifer L.; Caraway, Lisa; Neighbors, Clayton

2016-01-01

Objective: Personalized normative feedback (PNF) has been used extensively to reduce alcohol consumption, particularly among heavy drinkers. However, the majority of PNF studies have used only descriptive norms (real or perceived pervasiveness of a given behavior). The purpose of the current study was to explore the efficacy of PNF both with and without an injunctive message indicating approval or disapproval based on the participants’ standing relative to other students’ drinking levels. This randomized trial evaluated two brief web-based alcohol intervention conditions (descriptive-norms-feedback–only condition versus a descriptive-plus-injunctive-message condition relative to an assessment-only control condition). Method: Participants included 176 students who had reported at least one heavy drinking episode in the past month. Participants completed baseline and follow-up assessments of perceived norms and drinking. Follow-up assessments were completed at 2 weeks post-intervention by 165 (94%) participants. Results: Analyses were conducted using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. As expected, the descriptive-norms–only condition was effective in reducing drinking among heavier baseline drinkers at follow-up relative to the control condition. However, contrary to expectations, the descriptive-plus-injunctive-message condition did not predict less drinking at follow-up. Conclusions: This study was unique in using an injunctive message as an adjunct to descriptive-norms feedback within the context of drinking. Findings highlight the need for additional research into the role of defensiveness, which may serve as an impediment to using injunctive norms/messages in interventions for problematic substance use and other potentially stigmatizing behaviors. PMID:26997192

Ecology of nonnative Siberian prawn (Palaemon modestus) in the lower Snake River, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erhardt, John M.; Tiffan, Kenneth F.

2016-01-01

We assessed the abundance, distribution, and ecology of the nonnative Siberian prawn Palaemon modestus in the lower Snake River, Washington, USA. Analysis of prawn passage abundance at three Snake River dams showed that populations are growing at exponential rates, especially at Little Goose Dam where over 464,000 prawns were collected in 2015. Monthly beam trawling during 2011–2013 provided information on prawn abundance and distribution in Lower Granite and Little Goose Reservoirs. Zero-inflated regression predicted that the probability of prawn presence increased with decreasing water velocity and increasing depth. Negative binomial models predicted higher catch rates of prawns in deeper water and in closer proximity to dams. Temporally, prawn densities decreased slightly in the summer, likely due to the mortality of older individuals, and then increased in autumn and winter with the emergence and recruitment of young of the year. Seasonal length frequencies showed that distinct juvenile and adult size classes exist throughout the year, suggesting prawns live from 1 to 2 years and may be able to reproduce multiple times during their life. Most juvenile prawns become reproductive adults in 1 year, and peak reproduction occurs from late July through October. Mean fecundity (189 eggs) and reproductive output (11.9 %) are similar to that in their native range. The current use of deep habitats by prawns likely makes them unavailable to most predators in the reservoirs. The distribution and role of Siberian prawns in the lower Snake River food web will probably continue to change as the population grows and warrants continued monitoring and investigation.

The association between income, education, and experiences of discrimination in older African American and European American patients.

PubMed

Halanych, Jewell H; Safford, Monika M; Shikany, James M; Cuffee, Yendelela; Person, Sharina D; Scarinci, Isabel C; Kiefe, Catarina I; Allison, Jeroan J

2011-01-01

Racial/ethnic discrimination has adverse effects on health outcomes, as does low income and education, but the relationship between discrimination, income, and education is not well characterized. In this study, we describe the associations of discrimination with income and education in elderly African Americans (AA) and European Americans (EA). Cross-sectional observational study involving computer-assisted telephone survey. Southeastern United States. AA and EA Medicare managed care enrollees. Discrimination was measured with the Experience of Discrimination (EOD) scale (range 0-35). We used zero-inflated negative binomial models to determine the association between self-reported income and education and 1) presence of any discrimination and 2) intensity of discrimination. Among 1,800 participants (45% AA, 56% female, and mean age 73 years), EA reported less discrimination than AA (4% vs. 47%; P < .001). AA men reported more discrimination and more intense discrimination than AA women (EOD scores 4.35 vs. 2.50; P < .001). Both income and education were directly and linearly associated with both presence of discrimination and intensity of discrimination in AA, so that people with higher incomes and education experienced more discrimination. In adjusted models, predicted EOD scores among AA decreased with increasing age categories (3.42, 3.21, 2.99, 2.53; P < .01) and increased with increasing income (2.36, 3.44, 4.17; P < .001) and education categories (2.31, 3.09, 5.12; P < .001). This study suggests future research should focus less on differences between racial/ethnic groups and more on factors within minority populations that may contribute to healthcare disparities.

Factors associated with cholera in Kenya, 2008-2013

PubMed Central

Cowman, Gretchen; Otipo, Shikanga; Njeru, Ian; Achia, Thomas; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Bartram, Jamie; Kioko, Jackson

2017-01-01

Introduction Kenya experienced widespread cholera outbreaks in 1997-1999 and 2007-2010. The re-emergence of cholera in Kenya in 2015 indicates that cholera remains a public health threat. Understanding past outbreaks is important for preventing future outbreaks. This study investigated the relationship between cholera occurrence in Kenya and various environmental and demographic factors related to water, sanitation, socio-economic status, education, urbanization and availability of health facilities during the time period 2008-2013. Methods The primary outcome analyzed was the number of cholera cases at the district level, obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health's national cholera surveillance records. Values of independent variables were obtained from the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census and other national surveys. The data were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. Results Multivariate analysis indicated that the risk of cholera was associated with open defecation, use of unimproved water sources, poverty headcount ratio and the number of health facilities per 100,000 population (p < 0.05). No statistically significant association was found between cholera occurrence and education, percentage of population living in urban areas or population density. Conclusion The Sustainable Development Goals and Kenya's blueprint for development, Kenya Vision 2030, call for access to sanitation facilities and clean water for all by 2030. Kenya has made important economic strides in recent years but continues to be affected by diseases like cholera that are associated with low socio-economic status. Further expansion of access to sanitation facilities and clean water is necessary for preventing cholera in Kenya. PMID:29515719

Human Activity and Habitat Characteristics Influence Shorebird Habitat Use and Behavior at a Vancouver Island Migratory Stopover Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murchison, Colleen R.; Zharikov, Yuri; Nol, Erica

2016-09-01

Pacific Rim National Park Reserve on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, has 16 km of coastal beaches that attract many thousands of people and shorebirds (S.O. Charadrii) every year. To identify locations where shorebirds concentrate and to determine the impact of human activity and habitat characteristics on shorebirds, we conducted shorebird and visitor surveys at 20 beach sectors (across 20 total km of beach) during fall migration in 2011-2014 and spring migration in 2012 and 2013. Using zero-inflated negative binomial regression and a model selection approach, we found that beach width and number of people influenced shorebird use of beach sectors (Bayesian information criterion weight of top model = 0.69). Shorebird absence from beaches was associated with increasing number of people (parameter estimate from top model: 0.38; 95 % CI 0.19, 0.57) and decreasing beach width (parameter estimate: -0.32; 95 % CI -0.47, -0.17). Shorebirds spent more time at wider beaches (parameter estimate: 0.68; 95 % CI 0.49, 0.87). Close proximity to people increased the proportion of time shorebirds spent moving, while shorebirds spent more time moving and less time foraging on wider beaches than on narrower ones. Shorebird disturbance increased with proximity of people, activity speed, and presence of dogs. Based on our findings, management options, for reducing shorebird disturbance at Pacific Rim National Park Reserve and similar shorebird stopover areas, include mandatory buffer distances between people and shorebirds, restrictions on fast-moving activities (e.g., running, biking), prohibiting dogs, and seasonal closures of wide beach sections.

Challenging the assumption of habitat limitation: An example from centrarchid fishes over an intermediate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutreuter, S.

2004-01-01

Habitat rehabilitation efforts are predicated on the frequently untested assumption that habitat is limiting to populations. These efforts are typically costly and will be ineffective if habitat is not limiting. Therefore it is important to assess, rather than assume, habitat limitation wherever habitat rehabilitation projects are considered. Catch-count data from a standardized probability-based stratified-random monitoring programme were examined for indirect evidence of backwater habitat limitation by centrarchid fishes in the Upper Mississippi River System. The monitoring design enabled fitting statistical models of the association between mean catch at the spatial scale of tens of river kilometres and the percentage of contiguous aquatic area in backwater at least 1 m deep by maximizing a stratum-area weighted negative binomial log-likelihood function. Statistical models containing effects for backwater limitation failed to account for substantial variation in the data. However, 95% confidence intervals on the backwater parameter estimates excluded zero, indicating that population abundance may be limited by backwater prevalence where backwaters are extremely scarce. The combined results indicate, at most, a weak signal of backwater limitation where backwaters are extremely scarce in the lower reaches, but not elsewhere in the Upper Mississippi River System. This suggests that habitat restoration projects designed to increase the area of backwaters suitable for winter survival of centrarchids are unlikely to produce measurable benefits over intermediate spatial scales in much of the Upper Mississippi River System, and indicates the importance of correct identification of limiting processes. Published in 2004 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Hospitalizations for cancer in international migrants versus local population in Chile

PubMed Central

Oyarte, Marcela; Delgado, Iris; Pedrero, Víctor; Agar, Lorenzo; Cabieses, Báltica

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare cancer hospital morbidity among the local population and the immigrant population in Chile. METHODS This is a prevalence study based on the analysis of hospital discharges of all the health centers of Chile. Cancer hospital discharges were characterized in 2012 according to the migratory status. The crude and specific rates of hospital morbidity for this cause were estimated for the analysis of their association with migratory status using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. RESULTS The neoplasms were the third cause of hospital discharges for immigrants and the seventh one for Chileans. The adjusted rate of cancer hospital discharges was higher for Chileans than immigrants, and the latter had fewer days of hospitalization and greater proportion of surgical interventions. In the group of immigrants, cancer hospital discharges mainly corresponded to patients belonging to the private system (46%), and in the group of Chileans they mainly corresponded to patients in the public system (71.1%). We observed a large difference in the proportion of cancer hospital discharges for patients with no health insurance between the two populations (22.6%: immigrants, 1.0%: Chileans). In both populations, the three most frequent types of cancer were: (i) lymphoid tissue, hematopoietic organs, and related tissues, (ii) digestive organs, and (iii) breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS Models of differentiated care should be considered for immigrants, with the creation of specific programs of information, coverage, and protection against cancer. More information on this problem must be generated at the local and international level. PMID:29641660

Mechanical properties of regular porous biomaterials made from truncated cube repeating unit cells: Analytical solutions and computational models.

PubMed

Hedayati, R; Sadighi, M; Mohammadi-Aghdam, M; Zadpoor, A A

2016-03-01

Additive manufacturing (AM) has enabled fabrication of open-cell porous biomaterials based on repeating unit cells. The micro-architecture of the porous biomaterials and, thus, their physical properties could then be precisely controlled. Due to their many favorable properties, porous biomaterials manufactured using AM are considered as promising candidates for bone substitution as well as for several other applications in orthopedic surgery. The mechanical properties of such porous structures including static and fatigue properties are shown to be strongly dependent on the type of the repeating unit cell based on which the porous biomaterial is built. In this paper, we study the mechanical properties of porous biomaterials made from a relatively new unit cell, namely truncated cube. We present analytical solutions that relate the dimensions of the repeating unit cell to the elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio, yield stress, and buckling load of those porous structures. We also performed finite element modeling to predict the mechanical properties of the porous structures. The analytical solution and computational results were found to be in agreement with each other. The mechanical properties estimated using both the analytical and computational techniques were somewhat higher than the experimental data reported in one of our recent studies on selective laser melted Ti-6Al-4V porous biomaterials. In addition to porosity, the elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio of the porous structures were found to be strongly dependent on the ratio of the length of the inclined struts to that of the uninclined (i.e. vertical or horizontal) struts, α, in the truncated cube unit cell. The geometry of the truncated cube unit cell approaches the octahedral and cube unit cells when α respectively approaches zero and infinity. Consistent with those geometrical observations, the analytical solutions presented in this study approached those of the octahedral and cube unit cells when α approached respectively 0 and infinity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of the Hyper-Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes.

PubMed

Khazraee, S Hadi; Sáez-Castillo, Antonio Jose; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique

2015-05-01

The hyper-Poisson distribution can handle both over- and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation-specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper-Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper-Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway-highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness-of-fit measures indicated that the hyper-Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper-Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper-Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper-Poisson model can handle both over- and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Epidemiology of scrub typhus and influencing factors in Yunnan province, 2006-2013].

PubMed

Sun, Y; Shi, C; Li, X L; Fang, L Q; Cao, W C

2018-01-10

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhu s and influencing factors in Yunnan province, and provide further information for the prevention and control of scrub typhus. Methods: Based on the incidence data of scrub typhus reported in Yunnan from 2006 to 2013, the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus were analyzed and related environmental factors were identified with panel negative binomial regression model. Results: A total of 8 980 scrub typhus cases were reported during 2006-2013 in Yunnan. The average annual incidence was 2.46/100 000, with an uptrend observed. Natural focus expansion was found, affecting 71.3% of the counties in 2013. The epidemic mainly occurred in summer and autumn with the incidence peak during July-October. The annual incidence was higher in females than in males. More cases occurred in children and farmers, the proportions of cases in farmers and pre-school aged children showed an obvious increase. Panel negative binomial regression model indicated that the transmission risk of scrub typhus was positive associated with monthly temperature and monthly relative humidity. Furthermore, an "U" pattern between the risk and the increased coverage of cropland and grassland as well as an "inverted-U" pattern between the risk and increased coverage of shrub were observed. Conclusion: It is necessary to strengthen the scrub typhus surveillance in warm and moist areas as well as the areas with high coverage of cropland and grassland in Yunnan, and the health education in children and farmers who are at high risk.

Use of clinical practice guidelines by dentists: findings from the Japanese dental practice-based research network.

PubMed

Kakudate, Naoki; Yokoyama, Yoko; Sumida, Futoshi; Matsumoto, Yuki; Gordan, Valeria V; Gilbert, Gregg H

2017-02-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine differences in the use of dental clinical practice guidelines among Japanese dentists, and (2) identify characteristics associated with the number of guidelines used by participating dentists. We conducted a cross-sectional study consisting of a questionnaire survey in Japan between July 2014 and May 2015. The study queried dentists working in outpatient dental practices who are affiliated with the Dental Practice-Based Research Network Japan (n = 148). They were asked whether they have used each of 15 Japanese dental clinical guidelines. Associations between the number of guidelines used by participants and specific characteristics were analysed via negative binomial regression analysis. The mean number of guidelines used by participating dentists was 2.5 ± 2.9 [standard deviation (SD)]. Rate of use of guidelines showed substantial variation, from 5% to 34% among dentists. The proportion of dentists that used guidelines was the highest among oral medicine specialists, who had the highest proportion for 10 of 15 guidelines. Negative binomial regression analysis identified three factors significantly associated with the number of guidelines used: 'years since graduation from dental school', 'specialty practice' and 'practice busyness'. These results suggest that the use of clinical practice guidelines by Japanese dentists may still be inadequate. Training in the use of the guidelines could be given to dental students as undergraduate education and to young clinicians as continuing education. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A preliminary investigation of the relationships between historical crash and naturalistic driving.

PubMed

Pande, Anurag; Chand, Sai; Saxena, Neeraj; Dixit, Vinayak; Loy, James; Wolshon, Brian; Kent, Joshua D

2017-04-01

This paper describes a project that was undertaken using naturalistic driving data collected via Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to demonstrate a proof-of-concept for proactive safety assessments of crash-prone locations. The main hypothesis for the study is that the segments where drivers have to apply hard braking (higher jerks) more frequently might be the "unsafe" segments with more crashes over a long-term. The linear referencing methodology in ArcMap was used to link the GPS data with roadway characteristic data of US Highway 101 northbound (NB) and southbound (SB) in San Luis Obispo, California. The process used to merge GPS data with quarter-mile freeway segments for traditional crash frequency analysis is also discussed in the paper. A negative binomial regression analyses showed that proportion of high magnitude jerks while decelerating on freeway segments (from the driving data) was significantly related with the long-term crash frequency of those segments. A random parameter negative binomial model with uniformly distributed parameter for ADT and a fixed parameter for jerk provided a statistically significant estimate for quarter-mile segments. The results also indicated that roadway curvature and the presence of auxiliary lane are not significantly related with crash frequency for the highway segments under consideration. The results from this exploration are promising since the data used to derive the explanatory variable(s) can be collected using most off-the-shelf GPS devices, including many smartphones. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GENE-Counter: A Computational Pipeline for the Analysis of RNA-Seq Data for Gene Expression Differences

PubMed Central

Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W.; Wilhelm, Larry J.; Fox, Samuel E.; Sullivan, Christopher M.; Curzon, Aron D.; Carrington, James C.; Mockler, Todd C.; Chang, Jeff H.

2011-01-01

GENE-counter is a complete Perl-based computational pipeline for analyzing RNA-Sequencing (RNA-Seq) data for differential gene expression. In addition to its use in studying transcriptomes of eukaryotic model organisms, GENE-counter is applicable for prokaryotes and non-model organisms without an available genome reference sequence. For alignments, GENE-counter is configured for CASHX, Bowtie, and BWA, but an end user can use any Sequence Alignment/Map (SAM)-compliant program of preference. To analyze data for differential gene expression, GENE-counter can be run with any one of three statistics packages that are based on variations of the negative binomial distribution. The default method is a new and simple statistical test we developed based on an over-parameterized version of the negative binomial distribution. GENE-counter also includes three different methods for assessing differentially expressed features for enriched gene ontology (GO) terms. Results are transparent and data are systematically stored in a MySQL relational database to facilitate additional analyses as well as quality assessment. We used next generation sequencing to generate a small-scale RNA-Seq dataset derived from the heavily studied defense response of Arabidopsis thaliana and used GENE-counter to process the data. Collectively, the support from analysis of microarrays as well as the observed and substantial overlap in results from each of the three statistics packages demonstrates that GENE-counter is well suited for handling the unique characteristics of small sample sizes and high variability in gene counts. PMID:21998647

Magnetization of InAs parabolic quantum dot: An exact diagonalization approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aswathy, K. M., E-mail: aswathykm20@gmail.com; Sanjeev Kumar, D.

2016-04-13

The magnetization of two electron InAs quantum dot has been studied as a function of magnetic field. The electron-electron interaction has been taken into account by using exact diagonalization method numerically. The magnetization at zero external magnetic field is zero and increases in the negative direction. There is also a paramagnetic peak where the energy levels cross from singlet state to triplet state. Finally, the magnetization falls again to even negative values and saturates.

Revealing Word Order: Using Serial Position in Binomials to Predict Properties of the Speaker

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iliev, Rumen; Smirnova, Anastasia

2016-01-01

Three studies test the link between word order in binomials and psychological and demographic characteristics of a speaker. While linguists have already suggested that psychological, cultural and societal factors are important in choosing word order in binomials, the vast majority of relevant research was focused on general factors and on broadly…

Health information exchange and healthcare utilization.

PubMed

Vest, Joshua R

2009-06-01

Health information exchange (HIE) makes previously inaccessible data available to clinicians, resulting in more complete information. This study tested the hypotheses that HIE information access reduced emergency room visits and inpatient hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions among medically indigent adults. HIE access was quantified by how frequently system users' accessed patients' data. Encounter counts were modeled using zero inflated binomial regression. HIE was not accessed for 43% of individuals. Patient factors associated with accessed data included: prior utilization, chronic conditions, and age. Higher levels of information access were significantly associated with increased counts of all encounter types. Results indicate system users were more likely to access HIE for patients for whom the information might be considered most beneficial. Ultimately, these results imply that HIE information access did not transform care in the ways many would expect. Expectations in utilization reductions, however logical, may have to be reevaluated or postponed.

BMPix and PEAK tools: New methods for automated laminae recognition and counting—Application to glacial varves from Antarctic marine sediment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M. E.; Reichelt, L.; Kuhn, G.; Pfeiffer, M.; Korff, B.; Thurow, J.; Ricken, W.

2010-03-01

We present tools for rapid and quantitative detection of sediment lamination. The BMPix tool extracts color and gray scale curves from images at pixel resolution. The PEAK tool uses the gray scale curve and performs, for the first time, fully automated counting of laminae based on three methods. The maximum count algorithm counts every bright peak of a couplet of two laminae (annual resolution) in a smoothed curve. The zero-crossing algorithm counts every positive and negative halfway passage of the curve through a wide moving average, separating the record into bright and dark intervals (seasonal resolution). The same is true for the frequency truncation method, which uses Fourier transformation to decompose the curve into its frequency components before counting positive and negative passages. The algorithms are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.729700. We applied the new methods successfully to tree rings, to well-dated and already manually counted marine varves from Saanich Inlet, and to marine laminae from the Antarctic continental margin. In combination with AMS14C dating, we found convincing evidence that laminations in Weddell Sea sites represent varves, deposited continuously over several millennia during the last glacial maximum. The new tools offer several advantages over previous methods. The counting procedures are based on a moving average generated from gray scale curves instead of manual counting. Hence, results are highly objective and rely on reproducible mathematical criteria. Also, the PEAK tool measures the thickness of each year or season. Since all information required is displayed graphically, interactive optimization of the counting algorithms can be achieved quickly and conveniently.

A Binomial Modeling Approach for Upscaling Colloid Transport Under Unfavorable Attachment Conditions: Emergent Prediction of Nonmonotonic Retention Profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilpert, Markus; Johnson, William P.

2018-01-01

We used a recently developed simple mathematical network model to upscale pore-scale colloid transport information determined under unfavorable attachment conditions. Classical log-linear and nonmonotonic retention profiles, both well-reported under favorable and unfavorable attachment conditions, respectively, emerged from our upscaling. The primary attribute of the network is colloid transfer between bulk pore fluid, the near-surface fluid domain (NSFD), and attachment (treated as irreversible). The network model accounts for colloid transfer to the NSFD of downgradient grains and for reentrainment to bulk pore fluid via diffusion or via expulsion at rear flow stagnation zones (RFSZs). The model describes colloid transport by a sequence of random trials in a one-dimensional (1-D) network of Happel cells, which contain a grain and a pore. Using combinatorial analysis that capitalizes on the binomial coefficient, we derived from the pore-scale information the theoretical residence time distribution of colloids in the network. The transition from log-linear to nonmonotonic retention profiles occurs when the conditions underlying classical filtration theory are not fulfilled, i.e., when an NSFD colloid population is maintained. Then, nonmonotonic retention profiles result potentially both for attached and NSFD colloids. The concentration maxima shift downgradient depending on specific parameter choice. The concentration maxima were also shown to shift downgradient temporally (with continued elution) under conditions where attachment is negligible, explaining experimentally observed downgradient transport of retained concentration maxima of adhesion-deficient bacteria. For the case of zero reentrainment, we develop closed-form, analytical expressions for the shape, and the maximum of the colloid retention profile.

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance.

PubMed

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seizure variables and their relationship to genotype and functional abilities in the CDKL5 disorder.

PubMed

Fehr, Stephanie; Wong, Kingsley; Chin, Richard; Williams, Simon; de Klerk, Nick; Forbes, David; Krishnaraj, Rahul; Christodoulou, John; Downs, Jenny; Leonard, Helen

2016-11-22

To investigate seizure outcomes and their relationships to genotype and functional abilities in individuals with the cyclin-dependent kinase-like-5 (CDKL5) disorder. Using the International CDKL5 Disorder Database, we identified 172 cases with a pathogenic CDKL5 mutation. We categorized individual mutations into 4 groups based on predicted structural and functional consequences. Negative binomial regression was used to model the linear association between current seizure rate and mutation group, current level of assistance required to walk 10 steps, and the highest level of expressive communication used to convey refusal or request. All but 3 (169/172) patients had a history of epilepsy. The median age at seizure onset was 6 weeks (range 1 week-1.5 years) and the median seizure rate at ascertainment was 2 per day (range 0-20 per day). After adjusting for walking ability and confounders including use or otherwise of polytherapy, seizure rate was lower in those with truncating mutations between aa172 and aa781 compared to those with no functional protein (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35-0.93). Ability to walk and use of spoken language were associated with lower rates of current seizures when compared to those with the least ability after adjusting for genotype (walking: IRR 0.62; 95% CI 0.39-0.99, communication: IRR 0.48; 95% CI 0.23-1.02). At a median age at questionnaire completion of 5 years, those previously treated with corticosteroids had more frequent seizures than those who have never been treated, whether or not there was a history of infantile spasms. Epilepsy is pervasive but not mandatory for the CDKL5 disorder. Genotype and functional abilities were related to seizure frequency, which appears refractory to antiepileptic drugs. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Cyclical absenteeism among private sector, public sector and self-employed workers.

PubMed

Pfeifer, Christian

2013-03-01

This research note analyzes differences in the number of absent working days and doctor visits and in their cyclicality between private sector, public sector and self-employed workers. For this purpose, I used large-scale German survey data for the years 1995 to 2007 to estimate random effects negative binomial (count data) models. The main findings are as follows. (i) Public sector workers have on average more absent working days than private sector and self-employed workers. Self-employed workers have fewer absent working days and doctor visits than dependent employed workers. (ii) The regional unemployment rate is on average negatively correlated with the number of absent working days among private and public sector workers as well as among self-employed men. The correlations between regional unemployment rate and doctor visits are only significantly negative among private sector workers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Autoantibodies to N-terminally truncated GAD improve clinical phenotyping of individuals with adult-onset diabetes: Action LADA 12.

PubMed

Achenbach, Peter; Hawa, Mohammed I; Krause, Stephanie; Lampasona, Vito; Jerram, Samuel T; Williams, Alistair J K; Bonifacio, Ezio; Ziegler, Anette G; Leslie, R David

2018-07-01

Adult-onset type 1 diabetes, in which the 65 kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) is a major autoantigen, has a broad clinical phenotype encompassing variable need for insulin therapy. This study aimed to evaluate whether autoantibodies against N-terminally truncated GAD65 more closely defined a type 1 diabetes phenotype associated with insulin therapy. Of 1114 participants with adult-onset diabetes from the Action LADA (latent autoimmune diabetes in adults) study with sufficient sera, we selected those designated type 1 (n = 511) or type 2 diabetes (n = 603) and retested the samples in radiobinding assays for human full-length GAD65 autoantibodies (f-GADA) and N-terminally truncated (amino acids 96-585) GAD65 autoantibodies (t-GADA). Individuals' clinical phenotypes were analysed according to antibody binding patterns. Overall, 478 individuals were f-GADA-positive, 431 were t-GADA-positive and 628 were negative in both assays. Risk of insulin treatment was augmented in t-GADA-positive individuals (OR 4.69 [95% CI 3.57, 6.17]) compared with f-GADA-positive individuals (OR 3.86 [95% CI 2.95, 5.06]), irrespective of diabetes duration. Of 55 individuals who were f-GADA-positive but t-GADA-negative, i.e. with antibody binding restricted to the N-terminus of GAD65, the phenotype was similar to type 2 diabetes with low risk of progression to insulin treatment. Compared with these individuals with N-terminal GAD65-restricted GADA, t-GADA-positive individuals were younger at diagnosis (p = 0.005), leaner (p < 0.0001) and more often had multiple diabetes-associated autoantibodies (28.3% vs 7.3%; p = 0.0005). In individuals with adult-onset diabetes, presence of N-terminally truncated GAD65 autoantibodies is associated with the clinical phenotype of autoimmune type 1 diabetes and predicts insulin therapy.

On the p, q-binomial distribution and the Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundow, P. H.; Rosengren, A.

2010-08-01

We employ p, q-binomial coefficients, a generalisation of the binomial coefficients, to describe the magnetisation distributions of the Ising model. For the complete graph this distribution corresponds exactly to the limit case p = q. We apply our investigation to the simple d-dimensional lattices for d = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and fit p, q-binomial distributions to our data, some of which are exact but most are sampled. For d = 1 and d = 5, the magnetisation distributions are remarkably well-fitted by p,q-binomial distributions. For d = 4 we are only slightly less successful, while for d = 2, 3 we see some deviations (with exceptions!) between the p, q-binomial and the Ising distribution. However, at certain temperatures near T c the statistical moments of the fitted distribution agree with the moments of the sampled data within the precision of sampling. We begin the paper by giving results of the behaviour of the p, q-distribution and its moment growth exponents given a certain parameterisation of p, q. Since the moment exponents are known for the Ising model (or at least approximately for d = 3) we can predict how p, q should behave and compare this to our measured p, q. The results speak in favour of the p, q-binomial distribution's correctness regarding its general behaviour in comparison to the Ising model. The full extent to which they correctly model the Ising distribution, however, is not settled.

Assessment of some important factors affecting the singing-ground survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tautin, J.

1982-01-01

A brief history of the procedures used to analyze singing-ground survey data is outlined. Some weaknesses associated with the analytical procedures are discussed, and preliminary results of efforts to improve the procedures are presented. The most significant finding to date is that counts made by new observers need not be omitted when calculating an index of the woodcock population. Also, the distribution of woodcock heard singing, with respect to time after sunset, affirms the appropriateness of recommended starting times for counting woodcock. Woodcock count data fit the negative binomial probability distribution.

Population Characteristics and the Nature of Egg Shells of two Phthirapteran Species Parasitizing Indian Cattle Egrets

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Aftab; Khan, Vikram; Badola, Smita; Arya, Gaurav; Bansal, Nayanci; Saxena, A. K.

2010-01-01

The prevalence, intensities of infestation, range of infestation and population composition of two phthirapteran species, Ardeicola expallidus Blagoveshtchensky (Phthiraptera: Philopteridae) and Ciconiphilus decimfasciatus Boisduval and Lacordaire (Menoponidae) on seventy cattle egrets were recorded during August 2004 to March 2005, in India. The frequency distribution patterns of both the species were skewed but did not correspond to the negative binomial model. The oviposition sites, egg laying patterns and the nature of the eggs of the two species were markedly different. PMID:21067416

31 CFR 356.20 - How does the Treasury determine auction awards?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... and bond issues. We set the interest rate at a 1/8 of one percent increment. If a Treasury inflation-protected securities auction results in a negative or zero yield, the interest rate will be set at zero, and...

Restorative Resolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zaslaw, Jay

2010-01-01

Over the past decade, many schools have adopted zero-tolerance policies to curtail negative student behavior. Such policies persist although "there is as yet little evidence that the strategies typically associated with zero tolerance contribute to improved student behavior or overall school safety." Suspension and expulsion result in…

Restorative Resolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zaslaw, Jay

2010-01-01

Over the past decade, many schools have adopted zero-tolerance policies as a means to curtail negative student behavior. Such policies persist although "there is as yet little evidence that the strategies typically associated with zero tolerance contribute to improved student behavior or overall school safety." School suspension and…

Can Bayesian models play a role in dental caries epidemiology? Evidence from an application to the BELCAP data set.

PubMed

Matranga, Domenica; Firenze, Alberto; Vullo, Angela

2013-10-01

The aim of this study was to show the potential of Bayesian analysis in statistical modelling of dental caries data. Because of the bounded nature of the dmft (DMFT) index, zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) and beta-binomial (ZIBB) models were considered. The effects of incorporating prior information available about the parameters of models were also shown. The data set used in this study was the Belo Horizonte Caries Prevention (BELCAP) study (Böhning et al. (1999)), consisting of five variables collected among 797 Brazilian school children designed to evaluate four programmes for reducing caries. Only the eight primary molar teeth were considered in the data set. A data augmentation algorithm was used for estimation. Firstly, noninformative priors were used to express our lack of knowledge about the regression parameters. Secondly, prior information about the probability of being a structural zero dmft and the probability of being caries affected in the subpopulation of susceptible children was incorporated. With noninformative priors, the best fitting model was the ZIBB. Education (OR = 0.76, 95% CrI: 0.59, 0.99), all interventions (OR = 0.46, 95% CrI: 0.35, 0.62), rinsing (OR = 0.61, 95% CrI: 0.47, 0.80) and hygiene (OR = 0.65, 95% CrI: 0.49, 0.86) were demonstrated to be factors protecting children from being caries affected. Being male increased the probability of being caries diseased (OR = 1.19, 95% CrI: 1.01, 1.42). However, after incorporating informative priors, ZIB models' estimates were not influenced, while ZIBB models reduced deviance and confirmed the association with all interventions and rinsing only. In our application, Bayesian estimates showed a similar accuracy and precision than likelihood-based estimates, although they offered many computational advantages and the possibility of expressing all forms of uncertainty in terms of probability. The overdispersion parameter could expound why the introduction of prior information had significant effects on the parameters of the ZIBB model, while ZIB estimates remained unchanged. Finally, the best performance of ZIBB compared to the ZIB model was shown to catch overdispersion in data. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effectively control negative thermal expansion of single-phase ferroelectrics of PbTiO3-(Bi,La)FeO3 over a giant range.

PubMed

Chen, Jun; Wang, Fangfang; Huang, Qingzhen; Hu, Lei; Song, Xiping; Deng, Jinxia; Yu, Ranbo; Xing, Xianran

2013-01-01

Control of negative thermal expansion is a fundamentally interesting topic in the negative thermal expansion materials in order for the future applications. However, it is a challenge to control the negative thermal expansion in individual pure materials over a large scale. Here, we report an effective way to control the coefficient of thermal expansion from a giant negative to a near zero thermal expansion by means of adjusting the spontaneous volume ferroelectrostriction (SVFS) in the system of PbTiO3-(Bi,La)FeO3 ferroelectrics. The adjustable range of thermal expansion contains most negative thermal expansion materials. The abnormal property of negative or zero thermal expansion previously observed in ferroelectrics is well understood according to the present new concept of spontaneous volume ferroelectrostriction. The present studies could be useful to control of thermal expansion of ferroelectrics, and could be extended to multiferroic materials whose properties of both ferroelectricity and magnetism are coupled with thermal expansion.

Effectively control negative thermal expansion of single-phase ferroelectrics of PbTiO3-(Bi,La)FeO3 over a giant range

PubMed Central

Chen, Jun; Wang, Fangfang; Huang, Qingzhen; Hu, Lei; Song, Xiping; Deng, Jinxia; Yu, Ranbo; Xing, Xianran

2013-01-01

Control of negative thermal expansion is a fundamentally interesting topic in the negative thermal expansion materials in order for the future applications. However, it is a challenge to control the negative thermal expansion in individual pure materials over a large scale. Here, we report an effective way to control the coefficient of thermal expansion from a giant negative to a near zero thermal expansion by means of adjusting the spontaneous volume ferroelectrostriction (SVFS) in the system of PbTiO3-(Bi,La)FeO3 ferroelectrics. The adjustable range of thermal expansion contains most negative thermal expansion materials. The abnormal property of negative or zero thermal expansion previously observed in ferroelectrics is well understood according to the present new concept of spontaneous volume ferroelectrostriction. The present studies could be useful to control of thermal expansion of ferroelectrics, and could be extended to multiferroic materials whose properties of both ferroelectricity and magnetism are coupled with thermal expansion. PMID:23949238

Stochastic static fault slip inversion from geodetic data with non-negativity and bound constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocquet, J.-M.

2018-07-01

Despite surface displacements observed by geodesy are linear combinations of slip at faults in an elastic medium, determining the spatial distribution of fault slip remains a ill-posed inverse problem. A widely used approach to circumvent the illness of the inversion is to add regularization constraints in terms of smoothing and/or damping so that the linear system becomes invertible. However, the choice of regularization parameters is often arbitrary, and sometimes leads to significantly different results. Furthermore, the resolution analysis is usually empirical and cannot be made independently of the regularization. The stochastic approach of inverse problems provides a rigorous framework where the a priori information about the searched parameters is combined with the observations in order to derive posterior probabilities of the unkown parameters. Here, I investigate an approach where the prior probability density function (pdf) is a multivariate Gaussian function, with single truncation to impose positivity of slip or double truncation to impose positivity and upper bounds on slip for interseismic modelling. I show that the joint posterior pdf is similar to the linear untruncated Gaussian case and can be expressed as a truncated multivariate normal (TMVN) distribution. The TMVN form can then be used to obtain semi-analytical formulae for the single, 2-D or n-D marginal pdf. The semi-analytical formula involves the product of a Gaussian by an integral term that can be evaluated using recent developments in TMVN probabilities calculations. Posterior mean and covariance can also be efficiently derived. I show that the maximum posterior (MAP) can be obtained using a non-negative least-squares algorithm for the single truncated case or using the bounded-variable least-squares algorithm for the double truncated case. I show that the case of independent uniform priors can be approximated using TMVN. The numerical equivalence to Bayesian inversions using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) sampling is shown for a synthetic example and a real case for interseismic modelling in Central Peru. The TMVN method overcomes several limitations of the Bayesian approach using MCMC sampling. First, the need of computer power is largely reduced. Second, unlike Bayesian MCMC-based approach, marginal pdf, mean, variance or covariance are obtained independently one from each other. Third, the probability and cumulative density functions can be obtained with any density of points. Finally, determining the MAP is extremely fast.

Conformal amplitude hierarchy and the Poincaré disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimada, Hirohiko

2018-02-01

The amplitude for the singlet channels in the 4-point function of the fundamental field in the conformal field theory of the 2d O(n) model is studied as a function of n. For a generic value of n, the 4-point function has infinitely many amplitudes, whose landscape can be very spiky as the higher amplitude changes its sign many times at the simple poles, which generalize the unique pole of the energy operator amplitude at n = 0. In the stadard parameterization of n by angle in unit of π, we find that the zeros and poles happen at the rational angles, forming a hierarchical tree structure inherent in the Poincaré disk. Some relation between the amplitude and the Farey path, a piecewise geodesic that visits these zeros and poles, is suggested. In this hierarchy, the symmetry of the congruence subgroup Γ(2) of SL(2, ℤ) naturally arises from the two clearly distinct even/odd classes of the rational angles, in which one respectively gets the truncated operator algebras and the logarithmic 4-point functions.

Robin problems with a general potential and a superlinear reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papageorgiou, Nikolaos S.; Rădulescu, Vicenţiu D.; Repovš, Dušan D.

2017-09-01

We consider semilinear Robin problems driven by the negative Laplacian plus an indefinite potential and with a superlinear reaction term which need not satisfy the Ambrosetti-Rabinowitz condition. We prove existence and multiplicity theorems (producing also an infinity of smooth solutions) using variational tools, truncation and perturbation techniques and Morse theory (critical groups).

Neighborhood educational disparities in active commuting among women: the effect of distance between the place of residence and the place of work/study (an ACTI-Cités study).

PubMed

Perchoux, Camille; Nazare, Julie-Anne; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Salze, Paul; Feuillet, Thierry; Hercberg, Serge; Hess, Franck; Menai, Mehdi; Weber, Christiane; Charreire, Hélène; Enaux, Christophe; Oppert, Jean-Michel; Simon, Chantal

2017-06-12

Active transportation has been associated with favorable health outcomes. Previous research highlighted the influence of neighborhood educational level on active transportation. However, little is known regarding the effect of commuting distance on social disparities in active commuting. In this regard, women have been poorly studied. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the relationship between neighborhood educational level and active commuting, and to assess whether the commuting distance modifies this relationship in adult women. This cross-sectional study is based on a subsample of women from the Nutrinet-Santé web-cohort (N = 1169). Binomial, log-binomial and negative binomial regressions were used to assess the associations between neighborhood education level and (i) the likelihood of reporting any active commuting time, and (ii) the share of commuting time made by active transportation modes. Potential effect measure modification of distance to work on the previous associations was assessed both on the additive and the multiplicative scales. Neighborhood education level was positively associated with the probability of reporting any active commuting time (relative risk = 1.774; p < 0.05) and the share of commuting time spent active (relative risk = 1.423; p < 0.05). The impact of neighborhood education was greater at long distances to work for both outcomes. Our results suggest that neighborhood educational disparities in active commuting tend to increase with commuting distance among women. Further research is needed to provide geographically driven guidance for health promotion intervention aiming at reducing disparities in active transportation among socioeconomic groups.

Identification of a negative regulatory region for the exchange activity and characterization of T332I mutant of Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor 10 (ARHGEF10).

PubMed

Chaya, Taro; Shibata, Satoshi; Tokuhara, Yasunori; Yamaguchi, Wataru; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Kawahara, Ichiro; Kogo, Mikihiko; Ohoka, Yoshiharu; Inagaki, Shinobu

2011-08-26

The T332I mutation in Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor 10 (ARHGEF10) was previously found in persons with slowed nerve conduction velocities and thin myelination of peripheral nerves. However, the molecular and cellular basis of the T332I mutant is not understood. Here, we show that ARHGEF10 has a negative regulatory region in the N terminus, in which residue 332 is located, and the T332I mutant is constitutively active. An N-terminal truncated ARHGEF10 mutant, ARHGEF10 ΔN (lacking amino acids 1-332), induced cell contraction that was inhibited by a Rho kinase inhibitor Y27632 and had higher GEF activity for RhoA than the wild type. The T332I mutant also showed the phenotype similar to the N-terminal truncated mutant. These data suggest that the ARHGEF10 T332I mutation-associated phenotype observed in the peripheral nerves is due to activated GEF activity of the ARHGEF10 T332I mutant.

Identification of a Negative Regulatory Region for the Exchange Activity and Characterization of T332I Mutant of Rho Guanine Nucleotide Exchange Factor 10 (ARHGEF10)*

PubMed Central

Chaya, Taro; Shibata, Satoshi; Tokuhara, Yasunori; Yamaguchi, Wataru; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Kawahara, Ichiro; Kogo, Mikihiko; Ohoka, Yoshiharu; Inagaki, Shinobu

2011-01-01

The T332I mutation in Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor 10 (ARHGEF10) was previously found in persons with slowed nerve conduction velocities and thin myelination of peripheral nerves. However, the molecular and cellular basis of the T332I mutant is not understood. Here, we show that ARHGEF10 has a negative regulatory region in the N terminus, in which residue 332 is located, and the T332I mutant is constitutively active. An N-terminal truncated ARHGEF10 mutant, ARHGEF10 ΔN (lacking amino acids 1–332), induced cell contraction that was inhibited by a Rho kinase inhibitor Y27632 and had higher GEF activity for RhoA than the wild type. The T332I mutant also showed the phenotype similar to the N-terminal truncated mutant. These data suggest that the ARHGEF10 T332I mutation-associated phenotype observed in the peripheral nerves is due to activated GEF activity of the ARHGEF10 T332I mutant. PMID:21719701

Space-coiling metamaterials with double negativity and conical dispersion

PubMed Central

Liang, Zixian; Feng, Tianhua; Lok, Shukin; Liu, Fu; Ng, Kung Bo; Chan, Chi Hou; Wang, Jinjin; Han, Seunghoon; Lee, Sangyoon; Li, Jensen

2013-01-01

Metamaterials are effectively homogeneous materials that display extraordinary dispersion. Negative index metamaterials, zero index metamaterials and extremely anisotropic metamaterials are just a few examples. Instead of using locally resonating elements that may cause undesirable absorption, there are huge efforts to seek alternative routes to obtain these unusual properties. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach for constructing metamaterials with extreme dispersion by simply coiling up space with curled channels. Such a geometric approach also has an advantage that the ratio between the wavelength and the lattice constant in achieving a negative or zero index can be changed in principle. It allows us to construct for the first time an acoustic metamaterial with conical dispersion, leading to a clear demonstration of negative refraction from an acoustic metamaterial with airborne sound. We also design and realize a double-negative metamaterial for microwaves under the same principle. PMID:23563489

C-5A Cargo Deck Low-Frequency Vibration Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-01

SAMPLE VIBRATION CALCULATIONS 13 1. Normal Distribution 13 2. Binomial Distribution 15 IV CONCLUSIONS 17 -! V REFERENCES 18 t: FEiCENDIJJ PAGS 2LANKNOT...Calculation for Binomial Distribution 108 (Vertical Acceleration, Right Rear Cargo Deck) xi I. INTRODUCTION The availability of large transport...the end of taxi. These peaks could then be used directly to compile the probability of occurrence of specific values of acceleration using the binomial

Rare, protein-truncating variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2, but not XRCC2, are associated with increased breast cancer risks.

PubMed

Decker, Brennan; Allen, Jamie; Luccarini, Craig; Pooley, Karen A; Shah, Mitul; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Ahmed, Shahana; Baynes, Caroline; Conroy, Don M; Brown, Judith; Luben, Robert; Ostrander, Elaine A; Pharoah, Paul Dp; Dunning, Alison M; Easton, Douglas F

2017-11-01

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy in women and has a major heritable component. The risks associated with most rare susceptibility variants are not well estimated. To better characterise the contribution of variants in ATM , CHEK2 , PALB2 and XRCC2 , we sequenced their coding regions in 13 087 BC cases and 5488 controls from East Anglia, UK. Gene coding regions were enriched via PCR, sequenced, variant called and filtered for quality. ORs for BC risk were estimated separately for carriers of truncating variants and of rare missense variants, which were further subdivided by functional domain and pathogenicity as predicted by four in silico algorithms. Truncating variants in PALB2 (OR=4.69, 95% CI 2.27 to 9.68), ATM (OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.82 to 6.46) and CHEK2 (OR=3.11; 95% CI 2.15 to 4.69), but not XRCC2 (OR=0.94; 95% CI 0.26 to 4.19) were associated with increased BC risk. Truncating variants in ATM and CHEK2 were more strongly associated with risk of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive than ER-negative disease, while those in PALB2 were associated with similar risks for both subtypes. There was also some evidence that missense variants in ATM , CHEK2 and PALB2 may contribute to BC risk, but larger studies are necessary to quantify the magnitude of this effect. Truncating variants in PALB2 are associated with a higher risk of BC than those in ATM or CHEK2 . A substantial risk of BC due to truncating XRCC2 variants can be excluded. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A Novel de novo CDH1 Germline Variant Aids in the Classification of C-terminal E-cadherin Alterations Predicted to Escape Nonsense-Mediated mRNA Decay.

PubMed

Krempely, Kate; Karam, Rachid

2018-05-24

Most truncating CDH1 pathogenic alterations confer an elevated lifetime risk of diffuse gastric cancer and lobular breast cancer. However, transcripts containing carboxyl-terminal (C-terminal) premature stop codons have been demonstrated to escape the nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD) pathway, and gastric and breast cancer risks associated with these truncations should be carefully evaluated. A female patient underwent multigene panel testing due to a personal history of invasive lobular breast cancer diagnosed at age 54, which identified the germline CDH1 nonsense alteration, c.2506G>T (p.E836*), in the last exon of the gene. Subsequent parental testing for the alteration was negative and additional short tandem repeat analysis confirmed the familial relationships and the de novo occurrence in the proband. Based on the de novo occurrence, clinical history, and rarity in general population databases, this alteration was classified as a likely pathogenic variant. This is the most C-terminal pathogenic alteration reported to date. Additionally, this alteration contributed to the classification of six other upstream CDH1 C-terminal truncating variants as pathogenic or likely pathogenic. Identifying the most distal pathogenic alteration provides evidence to classify other C-terminal truncating variants as either pathogenic or benign, a fundamental step to offering pre-symptomatic screening and prophylactic procedures to the appropriate patients. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Statistical inference for time course RNA-Seq data using a negative binomial mixed-effect model.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoxiao; Dalpiaz, David; Wu, Di; S Liu, Jun; Zhong, Wenxuan; Ma, Ping

2016-08-26

Accurate identification of differentially expressed (DE) genes in time course RNA-Seq data is crucial for understanding the dynamics of transcriptional regulatory network. However, most of the available methods treat gene expressions at different time points as replicates and test the significance of the mean expression difference between treatments or conditions irrespective of time. They thus fail to identify many DE genes with different profiles across time. In this article, we propose a negative binomial mixed-effect model (NBMM) to identify DE genes in time course RNA-Seq data. In the NBMM, mean gene expression is characterized by a fixed effect, and time dependency is described by random effects. The NBMM is very flexible and can be fitted to both unreplicated and replicated time course RNA-Seq data via a penalized likelihood method. By comparing gene expression profiles over time, we further classify the DE genes into two subtypes to enhance the understanding of expression dynamics. A significance test for detecting DE genes is derived using a Kullback-Leibler distance ratio. Additionally, a significance test for gene sets is developed using a gene set score. Simulation analysis shows that the NBMM outperforms currently available methods for detecting DE genes and gene sets. Moreover, our real data analysis of fruit fly developmental time course RNA-Seq data demonstrates the NBMM identifies biologically relevant genes which are well justified by gene ontology analysis. The proposed method is powerful and efficient to detect biologically relevant DE genes and gene sets in time course RNA-Seq data.

Robust inference in the negative binomial regression model with an application to falls data.

PubMed

Aeberhard, William H; Cantoni, Eva; Heritier, Stephane

2014-12-01

A popular way to model overdispersed count data, such as the number of falls reported during intervention studies, is by means of the negative binomial (NB) distribution. Classical estimating methods are well-known to be sensitive to model misspecifications, taking the form of patients falling much more than expected in such intervention studies where the NB regression model is used. We extend in this article two approaches for building robust M-estimators of the regression parameters in the class of generalized linear models to the NB distribution. The first approach achieves robustness in the response by applying a bounded function on the Pearson residuals arising in the maximum likelihood estimating equations, while the second approach achieves robustness by bounding the unscaled deviance components. For both approaches, we explore different choices for the bounding functions. Through a unified notation, we show how close these approaches may actually be as long as the bounding functions are chosen and tuned appropriately, and provide the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. Moreover, we introduce a robust weighted maximum likelihood estimator for the overdispersion parameter, specific to the NB distribution. Simulations under various settings show that redescending bounding functions yield estimates with smaller biases under contamination while keeping high efficiency at the assumed model, and this for both approaches. We present an application to a recent randomized controlled trial measuring the effectiveness of an exercise program at reducing the number of falls among people suffering from Parkinsons disease to illustrate the diagnostic use of such robust procedures and their need for reliable inference. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Association between month of birth and melanoma risk: fact or fiction?

PubMed

Fiessler, Cornelia; Pfahlberg, Annette B; Keller, Andrea K; Radespiel-Tröger, Martin; Uter, Wolfgang; Gefeller, Olaf

2017-04-01

Evidence on the effect of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure in infancy on melanoma risk in later life is scarce. Three recent studies suggest that people born in spring carry a higher melanoma risk. Our study aimed at verifying whether such a seasonal pattern of melanoma risk actually exists. Data from the population-based Cancer Registry Bavaria (CRB) on the birth months of 28 374 incident melanoma cases between 2002 and 2012 were analysed and compared with data from the Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing on the birth month distribution in the Bavarian population. Crude and adjusted analyses using negative binomial regression models were performed in the total study group and supplemented by several subgroup analyses. In the crude analysis, the birth months March-May were over-represented among melanoma cases. Negative binomial regression models adjusted only for sex and birth year revealed a seasonal association between melanoma risk and birth month with 13-21% higher relative incidence rates for March, April and May compared with the reference December. However, after additionally adjusting for the birth month distribution of the Bavarian population, these risk estimates decreased markedly and no association with the birth month was observed any more. Similar results emerged in all subgroup analyses. Our large registry-based study provides no evidence that people born in spring carry a higher risk for developing melanoma in later life and thus lends no support to the hypothesis of higher UVR susceptibility during the first months of life. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Hopelessness as a Predictor of Suicide Ideation in Depressed Male and Female Adolescent Youth.

PubMed

Wolfe, Kristin L; Nakonezny, Paul A; Owen, Victoria J; Rial, Katherine V; Moorehead, Alexandra P; Kennard, Beth D; Emslie, Graham J

2017-12-21

We examined hopelessness as a predictor of suicide ideation in depressed youth after acute medication treatment. A total of 158 depressed adolescents were administered the Children's Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) as part of a larger battery at baseline and at weekly visits across 6 weeks of acute fluoxetine treatment. The Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) was administered at baseline and week 6. A negative binomial regression model via a generalized estimating equation analysis of repeated measures was used to estimate suicide ideation over the 6 weeks of acute treatment from baseline measure of hopelessness. Depression severity and gender were included as covariates in the model. The negative binomial analysis was also conducted separately for the sample of males and females (in a gender-stratified analysis). Mean CDRS-R total scores were 60.30 ± 8.93 at baseline and 34.65 ± 10.41 at week 6. Mean baseline and week 6 BHS scores were 9.57 ± 5.51 and 5.59 ± 5.38, respectively. Per the C-SSRS, 43.04% and 83.54% reported having no suicide ideation at baseline and at week 6, respectively. The analyses revealed that baseline hopelessness was positively related to suicide ideation over treatment (p = .0027), independent of changes in depression severity. This significant finding persisted only for females (p = .0024). These results indicate the importance of early identification of hopelessness. © 2017 The American Association of Suicidology.

The Effect of Sharrows, Painted Bicycle Lanes and Physically Protected Paths on the Severity of Bicycle Injuries Caused by Motor Vehicles.

PubMed

Wall, Stephen P; Lee, David C; Frangos, Spiros G; Sethi, Monica; Heyer, Jessica H; Ayoung-Chee, Patricia; DiMaggio, Charles J

2016-01-01

We conducted individual and ecologic analyses of prospectively collected data from 839 injured bicyclists who collided with motorized vehicles and presented to Bellevue Hospital, an urban Level-1 trauma center in New York City, from December 2008 to August 2014. Variables included demographics, scene information, rider behaviors, bicycle route availability, and whether the collision occurred before the road segment was converted to a bicycle route. We used negative binomial modeling to assess the risk of injury occurrence following bicycle path or lane implementation. We dichotomized U.S. National Trauma Data Bank Injury Severity Scores (ISS) into none/mild (0-8) versus moderate, severe, or critical (>8) and used adjusted multivariable logistic regression to model the association of ISS with collision proximity to sharrows (i.e., bicycle lanes designated for sharing with cars), painted bicycle lanes, or physically protected paths. Negative binomial modeling of monthly counts, while adjusting for pedestrian activity, revealed that physically protected paths were associated with 23% fewer injuries. Painted bicycle lanes reduced injury risk by nearly 90% (IDR 0.09, 95% CI 0.02-0.33). Holding all else equal, compared to no bicycle route, a bicycle injury nearby sharrows was nearly twice as likely to be moderate, severe, or critical (adjusted odds ratio 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-4.15). Painted bicycle lanes and physically protected paths were 1.52 (95% CI 0.85-2.71) and 1.66 (95% CI 0.85-3.22) times as likely to be associated with more than mild injury respectively.

Generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models for count data with application to malaria time series with low case numbers.

PubMed

Briët, Olivier J T; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions' impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during "consolidation" and "pre-elimination" phases. Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low.

Dispersion models and sampling of cacao mirid bug Sahlbergella singularis (Hemiptera: Miridae) on Theobroma Cacao in southern Cameroon.

PubMed

Bisseleua, D H B; Vidal, Stefan

2011-02-01

The spatio-temporal distribution of Sahlbergella singularis Haglung, a major pest of cacao trees (Theobroma cacao) (Malvaceae), was studied for 2 yr in traditional cacao forest gardens in the humid forest area of southern Cameroon. The first objective was to analyze the dispersion of this insect on cacao trees. The second objective was to develop sampling plans based on fixed levels of precision for estimating S. singularis populations. The following models were used to analyze the data: Taylor's power law, Iwao's patchiness regression, the Nachman model, and the negative binomial distribution. Our results document that Taylor's power law was a better fit for the data than the Iwao and Nachman models. Taylor's b and Iwao's β were both significantly >1, indicating that S. singularis aggregated on specific trees. This result was further supported by the calculated common k of 1.75444. Iwao's α was significantly <0, indicating that the basic distribution component of S. singularis was the individual insect. Comparison of negative binomial (NBD) and Nachman models indicated that the NBD model was appropriate for studying S. singularis distribution. Optimal sample sizes for fixed precision levels of 0.10, 0.15, and 0.25 were estimated with Taylor's regression coefficients. Required sample sizes increased dramatically with increasing levels of precision. This is the first study on S. singularis dispersion in cacao plantations. Sampling plans, presented here, should be a tool for research on population dynamics and pest management decisions of mirid bugs on cacao. © 2011 Entomological Society of America

Generalized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models for Count Data with Application to Malaria Time Series with Low Case Numbers

PubMed Central

Briët, Olivier J. T.; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H.; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

Introduction With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions’ impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during “consolidation” and “pre-elimination” phases. Methods Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. Results The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. Conclusions G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low. PMID:23785448

Individual-level exposure to disaster, neighborhood environmental characteristics, and their independent and combined associations with depressive symptoms in women.

PubMed

Gaston, Symielle A; Volaufova, Julia; Peters, Edward S; Ferguson, Tekeda F; Robinson, William T; Nugent, Nicole; Trapido, Edward J; Rung, Ariane L

2017-09-01

The severity of the stress response to experiencing disaster depends on individual exposure and background stress prior to the event. To date, there is limited research on the interaction between neighborhood environmental stress and experiencing an oil spill, and their effects on depression. The objective of the current study was to assess if the association between exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DHOS) and depressive symptoms varied by neighborhood characteristics. US Census data (2010) and longitudinal data collected in two waves (2012-2014 and 2014-2016) from female residents [N = 889 (Wave I), 737 (Wave II)] of an area highly affected by the DHOS were analyzed. Multilevel and individual-level negative binomial regressions were performed to estimate associations with depressive symptoms in both waves. An interaction term was included to estimate effect modification of the association between DHOS exposure and depressive symptoms by neighborhood characteristics. Generalized estimating equations were applied to the negative binomial regression testing longitudinal associations. Census tract-level neighborhood characteristics were not associated with depressive symptoms. Exposure to the DHOS and neighborhood physical disorder were associated with depressive symptoms cross-sectionally. There was no evidence of effect modification; however, physical/environmental exposure to the DHOS was associated with increased depressive symptoms only among women living in areas with physical disorder. Exposure to the DHOS remained associated with depressive symptoms over time. Findings support the enduring consequences of disaster exposure on depressive symptoms in women and identify potential targets for post-disaster intervention based on residential characteristics.

Linking parasite populations in hosts to parasite populations in space through Taylor's law and the negative binomial distribution

PubMed Central

Poulin, Robert; Lagrue, Clément

2017-01-01

The spatial distribution of individuals of any species is a basic concern of ecology. The spatial distribution of parasites matters to control and conservation of parasites that affect human and nonhuman populations. This paper develops a quantitative theory to predict the spatial distribution of parasites based on the distribution of parasites in hosts and the spatial distribution of hosts. Four models are tested against observations of metazoan hosts and their parasites in littoral zones of four lakes in Otago, New Zealand. These models differ in two dichotomous assumptions, constituting a 2 × 2 theoretical design. One assumption specifies whether the variance function of the number of parasites per host individual is described by Taylor's law (TL) or the negative binomial distribution (NBD). The other assumption specifies whether the numbers of parasite individuals within each host in a square meter of habitat are independent or perfectly correlated among host individuals. We find empirically that the variance–mean relationship of the numbers of parasites per square meter is very well described by TL but is not well described by NBD. Two models that posit perfect correlation of the parasite loads of hosts in a square meter of habitat approximate observations much better than two models that posit independence of parasite loads of hosts in a square meter, regardless of whether the variance–mean relationship of parasites per host individual obeys TL or NBD. We infer that high local interhost correlations in parasite load strongly influence the spatial distribution of parasites. Local hotspots could influence control and conservation of parasites. PMID:27994156

Sickness absence and psychosocial job quality: an analysis from a longitudinal survey of working Australians, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Butterworth, Peter; Bentley, Rebecca; Kavanagh, Anne M; LaMontagne, Anthony D

2015-05-15

Sickness absence is associated with adverse health, organizational, and societal outcomes. Using data from a longitudinal cohort study of working Australians (the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey), we examined the relationship between changes in individuals' overall psychosocial job quality and variation in sickness absence. The outcome variables were paid sickness absence (yes/no) and number of days of paid sickness absence in the past year (2005-2012). The main exposure variable was psychosocial job quality, measured using a psychosocial job quality index (levels of job control, demands and complexity, insecurity, and perceptions of unfair pay). Analysis was conducted using longitudinal fixed-effects logistic regression models and negative binomial regression models. There was a dose-response relationship between the number of psychosocial job stressors reported by an individual and the odds of paid sickness absence (1 adversity: odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.45 (P = 0.002); 2 adversities: OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.51 (P = 0.002); ≥3 adversities: OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.29, 1.94 (P < 0.001)). The negative binomial regression models also indicated that respondents reported a greater number of days of sickness absence in response to worsening psychosocial job quality. These results suggest that workplace interventions aiming to improve the quality of work could help reduce sickness absence. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Probabilistic assessment of precipitation-triggered landslides using historical records of landslide occurence, Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, J.A.; Michael, J.A.; Crovelli, R.A.; Savage, W.Z.; Laprade, W.T.; Nashem, W.D.

2004-01-01

Ninety years of historical landslide records were used as input to the Poisson and binomial probability models. Results from these models show that, for precipitation-triggered landslides, approximately 9 percent of the area of Seattle has annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent or greater. Application of the Poisson model for estimating the future occurrence of individual landslides results in a worst-case scenario map, with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 25 percent on a hillslope near Duwamish Head in West Seattle. Application of the binomial model for estimating the future occurrence of a year with one or more landslides results in a map with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 17 percent (also near Duwamish Head). Slope and geology both play a role in localizing the occurrence of landslides in Seattle. A positive correlation exists between slope and mean exceedance probability, with probability tending to increase as slope increases. Sixty-four percent of all historical landslide locations are within 150 m (500 ft, horizontal distance) of the Esperance Sand/Lawton Clay contact, but within this zone, no positive or negative correlation exists between exceedance probability and distance to the contact.

Emergence of domains and nonlinear transport in the zero-resistance state.

PubMed

Dmitriev, I A; Khodas, M; Mirlin, A D; Polyakov, D G

2013-11-15

We study transport in the domain state, the so-called zero-resistance state, that emerges in a two-dimensional electron system in which the combined action of microwave radiation and magnetic field produces a negative absolute conductivity. We show that the voltage-biased system has a rich phase diagram in the system size and voltage plane, with second- and first-order transitions between the domain and homogeneous states for small and large voltages, respectively. We find the residual negative dissipative resistance in the stable domain state.

Binomial Baseball.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Eugene M.

1981-01-01

Student access to programmable calculators and computer terminals, coupled with a familiarity with baseball, provides opportunities to enhance their understanding of the binomial distribution and other aspects of analysis. (MP)

Redbank and Fancher Creeks, California: General Design Memorandum

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

agricultural areas not adjacent to mainstream channels. The runoff for these areas, which are downstream of the Enterprise Canal, was assumed to be zero ...for Dry Creek near Lemon Cove. The skews were negative for all the shorter durations and approached a skew of zero for the Dry Creek at Academy and...potentially non-conservative. However, since the cohesion intercept for the design "R" strength was set equal to zero , the impervious fill design strength

An Improved Zero Potential Circuit for Readout of a Two-Dimensional Resistive Sensor Array

PubMed Central

Wu, Jian-Feng; Wang, Feng; Wang, Qi; Li, Jian-Qing; Song, Ai-Guo

2016-01-01

With one operational amplifier (op-amp) in negative feedback, the traditional zero potential circuit could access one element in the two-dimensional (2-D) resistive sensor array with the shared row-column fashion but it suffered from the crosstalk problem for the non-scanned elements’ bypass currents, which were injected into array’s non-scanned electrodes from zero potential. Firstly, for suppressing the crosstalk problem, we designed a novel improved zero potential circuit with one more op-amp in negative feedback to sample the total bypass current and calculate the precision resistance of the element being tested (EBT) with it. The improved setting non-scanned-electrode zero potential circuit (S-NSE-ZPC) was given as an example for analyzing and verifying the performance of the improved zero potential circuit. Secondly, in the S-NSE-ZPC and the improved S-NSE-ZPC, the effects of different parameters of the resistive sensor arrays and their readout circuits on the EBT’s measurement accuracy were simulated with the NI Multisim 12. Thirdly, part features of the improved circuit were verified with the experiments of a prototype circuit. Followed, the results were discussed and the conclusions were given. The experiment results show that the improved circuit, though it requires one more op-amp, one more resistor and one more sampling channel, can access the EBT in the 2-D resistive sensor array more accurately. PMID:27929410

An Improved Zero Potential Circuit for Readout of a Two-Dimensional Resistive Sensor Array.

PubMed

Wu, Jian-Feng; Wang, Feng; Wang, Qi; Li, Jian-Qing; Song, Ai-Guo

2016-12-06

With one operational amplifier (op-amp) in negative feedback, the traditional zero potential circuit could access one element in the two-dimensional (2-D) resistive sensor array with the shared row-column fashion but it suffered from the crosstalk problem for the non-scanned elements' bypass currents, which were injected into array's non-scanned electrodes from zero potential. Firstly, for suppressing the crosstalk problem, we designed a novel improved zero potential circuit with one more op-amp in negative feedback to sample the total bypass current and calculate the precision resistance of the element being tested (EBT) with it. The improved setting non-scanned-electrode zero potential circuit (S-NSE-ZPC) was given as an example for analyzing and verifying the performance of the improved zero potential circuit. Secondly, in the S-NSE-ZPC and the improved S-NSE-ZPC, the effects of different parameters of the resistive sensor arrays and their readout circuits on the EBT's measurement accuracy were simulated with the NI Multisim 12. Thirdly, part features of the improved circuit were verified with the experiments of a prototype circuit. Followed, the results were discussed and the conclusions were given. The experiment results show that the improved circuit, though it requires one more op-amp, one more resistor and one more sampling channel, can access the EBT in the 2-D resistive sensor array more accurately.

Drying and wetting transitions of a Lennard-Jones fluid: Simulations and density functional theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Robert; Stewart, Maria C.; Wilding, Nigel B.

2017-07-01

We report a theoretical and simulation study of the drying and wetting phase transitions of a truncated Lennard-Jones fluid at a flat structureless wall. Binding potential calculations predict that the nature of these transitions depends on whether the wall-fluid attraction has a long ranged (LR) power law decay or is instead truncated, rendering it short ranged (SR). Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation and classical density functional theory, we examine both cases in detail. We find that for the LR case wetting is first order, while drying is continuous (critical) and occurs exactly at zero attractive wall strength, i.e., in the limit of a hard wall. In the SR case, drying is also critical but the order of the wetting transition depends on the truncation range of the wall-fluid potential. We characterize the approach to critical drying and wetting in terms of the density and local compressibility profiles and via the finite-size scaling properties of the probability distribution of the overall density. For the LR case, where the drying point is known exactly, this analysis allows us to estimate the exponent ν∥, which controls the parallel correlation length, i.e., the extent of vapor bubbles at the wall. Surprisingly, the value we obtain is over twice that predicted by mean field and renormalization group calculations, despite the fact that our three dimensional system is at the upper critical dimension where mean field theory for critical exponents is expected to hold. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed in the light of fresh insights into the nature of near critical finite-size effects.

Drying and wetting transitions of a Lennard-Jones fluid: Simulations and density functional theory.

PubMed

Evans, Robert; Stewart, Maria C; Wilding, Nigel B

2017-07-28

We report a theoretical and simulation study of the drying and wetting phase transitions of a truncated Lennard-Jones fluid at a flat structureless wall. Binding potential calculations predict that the nature of these transitions depends on whether the wall-fluid attraction has a long ranged (LR) power law decay or is instead truncated, rendering it short ranged (SR). Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation and classical density functional theory, we examine both cases in detail. We find that for the LR case wetting is first order, while drying is continuous (critical) and occurs exactly at zero attractive wall strength, i.e., in the limit of a hard wall. In the SR case, drying is also critical but the order of the wetting transition depends on the truncation range of the wall-fluid potential. We characterize the approach to critical drying and wetting in terms of the density and local compressibility profiles and via the finite-size scaling properties of the probability distribution of the overall density. For the LR case, where the drying point is known exactly, this analysis allows us to estimate the exponent ν ∥ , which controls the parallel correlation length, i.e., the extent of vapor bubbles at the wall. Surprisingly, the value we obtain is over twice that predicted by mean field and renormalization group calculations, despite the fact that our three dimensional system is at the upper critical dimension where mean field theory for critical exponents is expected to hold. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed in the light of fresh insights into the nature of near critical finite-size effects.

New Class of Quantum Error-Correcting Codes for a Bosonic Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, Marios H.; Silveri, Matti; Brierley, R. T.; Albert, Victor V.; Salmilehto, Juha; Jiang, Liang; Girvin, S. M.

2016-07-01

We construct a new class of quantum error-correcting codes for a bosonic mode, which are advantageous for applications in quantum memories, communication, and scalable computation. These "binomial quantum codes" are formed from a finite superposition of Fock states weighted with binomial coefficients. The binomial codes can exactly correct errors that are polynomial up to a specific degree in bosonic creation and annihilation operators, including amplitude damping and displacement noise as well as boson addition and dephasing errors. For realistic continuous-time dissipative evolution, the codes can perform approximate quantum error correction to any given order in the time step between error detection measurements. We present an explicit approximate quantum error recovery operation based on projective measurements and unitary operations. The binomial codes are tailored for detecting boson loss and gain errors by means of measurements of the generalized number parity. We discuss optimization of the binomial codes and demonstrate that by relaxing the parity structure, codes with even lower unrecoverable error rates can be achieved. The binomial codes are related to existing two-mode bosonic codes, but offer the advantage of requiring only a single bosonic mode to correct amplitude damping as well as the ability to correct other errors. Our codes are similar in spirit to "cat codes" based on superpositions of the coherent states but offer several advantages such as smaller mean boson number, exact rather than approximate orthonormality of the code words, and an explicit unitary operation for repumping energy into the bosonic mode. The binomial quantum codes are realizable with current superconducting circuit technology, and they should prove useful in other quantum technologies, including bosonic quantum memories, photonic quantum communication, and optical-to-microwave up- and down-conversion.

Quantifying the safety effects of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads.

PubMed

Gooch, Jeffrey P; Gayah, Vikash V; Donnell, Eric T

2016-07-01

The objective of this study is to quantify the safety performance of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads relative to tangent segments. Past research is limited by small samples sizes, outdated statistical evaluation methods, and unreported standard errors. This study overcomes these drawbacks by using the propensity scores-potential outcomes framework. The impact of adjacent curves on horizontal curve safety is also explored using a cross-sectional regression model of only horizontal curves. The models estimated in the present study used eight years of crash data (2005-2012) obtained from over 10,000 miles of state-owned two-lane rural roads in Pennsylvania. These data included information on roadway geometry (e.g., horizontal curvature, lane width, and shoulder width), traffic volume, roadside hazard rating, and the presence of various low-cost safety countermeasures (e.g., centerline and shoulder rumble strips, curve and intersection warning pavement markings, and aggressive driving pavement dots). Crash prediction is performed by means of mixed effects negative binomial regression using the explanatory variables noted previously, as well as attributes of adjacent horizontal curves. The results indicate that both the presence of a horizontal curve and its degree of curvature must be considered when predicting the frequency of total crashes on horizontal curves. Both are associated with an increase in crash frequency, which is consistent with previous findings in the literature. Mixed effects negative binomial regression models for total crash frequency on horizontal curves indicate that the distance to adjacent curves is not statistically significant. However, the degree of curvature of adjacent curves in close proximity (within 0.75 miles) was found to be statistically significant and negatively correlated with crash frequency on the subject curve. This is logical, as drivers exiting a sharp curve are likely to be driving slower and with more awareness as they approach the next horizontal curve. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human Activity and Habitat Characteristics Influence Shorebird Habitat Use and Behavior at a Vancouver Island Migratory Stopover Site.

PubMed

Murchison, Colleen R; Zharikov, Yuri; Nol, Erica

2016-09-01

Pacific Rim National Park Reserve on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, has 16 km of coastal beaches that attract many thousands of people and shorebirds (S.O. Charadrii) every year. To identify locations where shorebirds concentrate and to determine the impact of human activity and habitat characteristics on shorebirds, we conducted shorebird and visitor surveys at 20 beach sectors (across 20 total km of beach) during fall migration in 2011-2014 and spring migration in 2012 and 2013. Using zero-inflated negative binomial regression and a model selection approach, we found that beach width and number of people influenced shorebird use of beach sectors (Bayesian information criterion weight of top model = 0.69). Shorebird absence from beaches was associated with increasing number of people (parameter estimate from top model: 0.38; 95 % CI 0.19, 0.57) and decreasing beach width (parameter estimate: -0.32; 95 % CI -0.47, -0.17). Shorebirds spent more time at wider beaches (parameter estimate: 0.68; 95 % CI 0.49, 0.87). Close proximity to people increased the proportion of time shorebirds spent moving, while shorebirds spent more time moving and less time foraging on wider beaches than on narrower ones. Shorebird disturbance increased with proximity of people, activity speed, and presence of dogs. Based on our findings, management options, for reducing shorebird disturbance at Pacific Rim National Park Reserve and similar shorebird stopover areas, include mandatory buffer distances between people and shorebirds, restrictions on fast-moving activities (e.g., running, biking), prohibiting dogs, and seasonal closures of wide beach sections.

Blood Pressure May Be Associated with Arterial Collateralization in Anterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke before Acute Reperfusion Therapy.

PubMed

Jiang, Beisi; Churilov, Leonid; Kanesan, Lasheta; Dowling, Richard; Mitchell, Peter; Dong, Qiang; Davis, Stephen; Yan, Bernard

2017-05-01

Leptomeningeal collaterals maintain arterial perfusion in acute arterial occlusion but may fluctuate subject to arterial blood pressure (ABP). We aim to investigate the relationship between ABP and collaterals as assessed by computer tomography (CT) perfusion in acute ischemic stroke. We retrospectively analyzed acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke patients with CT perfusion from 2009 to 2014. Collateral status using relative filling time delay (rFTD) determined by time delay of collateral-derived contrast opacification within the Sylvian fissure, from 0 seconds to unlimited count. The data were analyzed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression model including an appropriate interaction examining in the model in terms of occlusion location and onset-to-CT time (OCT). Two hundred and seventy patients were included. We found that increment of 10 mm Hg in BP, the odds that a patient would have rFTD equal to 0 seconds increased by 27.9% in systolic BP (SBP) ( p =0.001), by 73.9% in diastolic BP (DBP) ( p <0.001) and by 68.5% in mean BP (MBP) ( p <0.001). For patients with rFTD not necessarily equal to 0 seconds, every 10 mm Hg increase in BP, there was a 7% decrease in expected count of seconds for rFTD in SBP ( p =0.002), 10% decrease for rFTD in DBP and 11% decrease for rFTD in MBP. The arterial occlusion location and OCT showed no significant interaction in the BP-rFTD relationship ( p >0.05). In acute ischemic stroke, higher ABP is possibly associated with improved leptomeningeal collaterals as identified by decreased rFTD.

Predicting Hotspots of Human-Elephant Conflict to Inform Mitigation Strategies in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Marino, Jorgelina; Chen, Yong; Tao, Qing; Sullivan, Casey D; Shi, Kun; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

Research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflict is fundamental to understanding the mechanisms underlying it and to identifying opportunities for mitigation. In the state of Xishuangbanna, containing China's largest tropical forest, an imbalance between nature conservation and economic development has led to increasing conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), as both elephant numbers and conversion of habitable land to rubber plantations have increased over the last several decades. We analyzed government data on the compensation costs of elephant-caused damage in Xishuangbanna between 2008 and 2012 to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of conflict, in terms of their occurrence, frequency and distribution. More than 18,261 incidents were reported, including episodes involving damage to rubber trees (n = 10,999), damage to crops such as paddy, upland rice, corn, bananas and sugarcane (n = 11,020), property loss (n = 689) and attacks on humans (n = 19). The conflict data reconfirmed the presence of elephants in areas which have lacked records since the late 1990s. Zero Altered Negative Binomial models revealed that the risk of damage to crops and plantations increased with proximity to protected areas, increasing distance from roads, and lower settlement density. The patterns were constant across seasons and types of crop damaged. Damage to rubber trees was essentially incidental as elephants searched for crops to eat. A predictive map of risks revealed hotspots of conflict within and around protected areas, the last refuges for elephants in the region, and along habitat corridors connecting them. Additionally, we analyzed how mitigation efforts can best diminish the risk of conflict while minimizing financial costs and adverse biological impacts. Our analytical approach can be adopted, adjusted and expanded to other areas with historical records of human-wildlife conflict.

Inequalities in dental caries of 5-year-old children in Scotland, 1993-2003.

PubMed

Levin, Kate A; Davies, Carolyn A; Topping, Gail V A; Assaf, Andrea V; Pitts, Nigel B

2009-06-01

Previous research suggests there are significant differences between socio-economic groups in prevalence and amount of decayed missing and filled primary teeth (d3mft). The aim of this study was to describe the variation in obvious tooth decay experience amongst 5-year olds in Scotland and to look at the association between d3mft and deprivation in Scotland. Data derived from 1993 to 2003 National Dental Inspection Programme were modelled using Bayesian multilevel zero-inflated Negative Binomial models, adjusting for age, sex and the deprivation. Deprivation is positively and significantly associated with having d3mft; the odds of a child in DepCat 7 (most deprived) having d3mft in 1993 were 7.49 (5.03-11.15) that of a child in DepCat 1 (most affluent). Inequalities in the prevalence of d3mft have reduced and in 2003 the odds of a child in DepCat 7 having d3mft were 4.60 (3.47-6.14) that of a child in DepCat 1. However, socio-economic inequalities in the amount of d3mft for those with d3mft have seen no reduction and have in fact increased between 1993 and 2003, with this increase approaching significance. While socio-economic inequalities in prevalence of children with d3mft have decreased in recent years, socio-economic inequalities in the amount of d3mft for those with d3mft persist. This suggests that improvements are only seen for those children with the potential for low d3mft. High d3mft persists among children from more deprived areas. The national target conceals this apparent inconsistency.

Applications of asymptotic confidence intervals with continuity corrections for asymmetric comparisons in noninferiority trials.

PubMed

Soulakova, Julia N; Bright, Brianna C

2013-01-01

A large-sample problem of illustrating noninferiority of an experimental treatment over a referent treatment for binary outcomes is considered. The methods of illustrating noninferiority involve constructing the lower two-sided confidence bound for the difference between binomial proportions corresponding to the experimental and referent treatments and comparing it with the negative value of the noninferiority margin. The three considered methods, Anbar, Falk-Koch, and Reduced Falk-Koch, handle the comparison in an asymmetric way, that is, only the referent proportion out of the two, experimental and referent, is directly involved in the expression for the variance of the difference between two sample proportions. Five continuity corrections (including zero) are considered with respect to each approach. The key properties of the corresponding methods are evaluated via simulations. First, the uncorrected two-sided confidence intervals can, potentially, have smaller coverage probability than the nominal level even for moderately large sample sizes, for example, 150 per group. Next, the 15 testing methods are discussed in terms of their Type I error rate and power. In the settings with a relatively small referent proportion (about 0.4 or smaller), the Anbar approach with Yates' continuity correction is recommended for balanced designs and the Falk-Koch method with Yates' correction is recommended for unbalanced designs. For relatively moderate (about 0.6) and large (about 0.8 or greater) referent proportion, the uncorrected Reduced Falk-Koch method is recommended, although in this case, all methods tend to be over-conservative. These results are expected to be used in the design stage of a noninferiority study when asymmetric comparisons are envisioned. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Substance Use, Depression and Sociodemographic Determinants of HIV Sexual Risk Behavior in Outpatient Substance Abuse Treatment Patients.

PubMed

Tross, Susan; Feaster, Daniel J; Thorens, Gabriel; Duan, Rui; Gomez, Zoilyn; Pavlicova, Martina; Hu, Mei Chen; Kyle, Tiffany; Erickson, Sarah; Spector, Anya; Haynes, Louise; Metsch, Lisa R

2015-01-01

The NIDA Clinical Trials Network trial of rapid HIV testing/counseling in 1281 patients was a unique opportunity to examine relationships among substance use, depressive symptoms, and sex risk behavior. Past 6-month substance use; substance use severity (Drug Abuse Screening Test - 10); depressive symptoms (Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology); and three types of sex risk behavior (unprotected sex occasions [USOs] with primary partners; USOs with nonprimary partners; and USOs while high/drunk) were assessed. Zero-inflated negative binomial analyses provided: probability and rate of sex risk behavior (in risk behavior subsample). Levels of sexual risk behavior were high, while variable across the three types of sex risk behaviors. Among the patients, 50.4% had engaged in USOs with primary partners, 42% in sex while drunk or high, and 23.8% in USOs with nonprimary partners. Similar factors were significantly associated with all three types of sex risk behaviors. For all types, problem drinking, cocaine use, and substance use severity had an exacerbating effect. Older age was associated with lower risk behavior; other relationship categories (eg, married, separated/divorced, cohabitating) were associated with greater risk behavior than was single status. Depressive symptoms were associated with decreased likelihood of USOs with a primary partner. Sexual risk behavior is common among individuals in outpatient substance abuse treatment. Results highlight problem drinking (eg, up to three-fold) and cocaine (eg, up to twice) in increasing sex risk behavior. They demonstrate the utility of distinguishing between partner types and presence/absence of alcohol/drugs during sex. Findings argue for the need to integrate sex risk reduction into drug treatment.

Does small-perimeter fencing inhibit mule deer or pronghorn use of water developments?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, R.T.; Bissonette, J.A.; Flinders, J.T.; Robinson, A.C.

2011-01-01

Wildlife water development can be an important habitat management strategy in western North America for many species, including both pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). In many areas, water developments are fenced (often with small-perimeter fencing) to exclude domestic livestock and feral horses. Small-perimeter exclosures could limit wild ungulate use of fenced water sources, as exclosures present a barrier pronghorn and mule deer must negotiate to gain access to fenced drinking water. To evaluate the hypothesis that exclosures limit wild ungulate access to water sources, we compared use (photo counts) of fenced versus unfenced water sources for both pronghorn and mule deer between June and October 2002-2008 in western Utah. We used model selection to identify an adequate distribution and best approximating model. We selected a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution for both pronghorn and mule deer photo counts. Both pronghorn and mule deer photo counts were positively associated with sampling time and average daily maximum temperature in top models. A fence effect was present in top models for both pronghorn and mule deer, but mule deer response to small-perimeter fencing was much more pronounced than pronghorn response. For mule deer, we estimated that presence of a fence around water developments reduced photo counts by a factor of 0.25. We suggest eliminating fencing of water developments whenever possible or fencing a big enough area around water sources to avoid inhibiting mule deer. More generally, our results provide additional evidence that water development design and placement influence wildlife use. Failure to account for species-specific preferences will limit effectiveness of management actions and could compromise research results. Copyright ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

A prospective study of mental health care for comorbid depressed mood in older adults with painful osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Comorbid depression is common among adults with painful osteoarthritis (OA). We evaluated the relationship between depressed mood and receipt of mental health (MH) care services. Methods In a cohort with OA, annual interviews assessed comorbidity, arthritis severity, and MH (SF-36 mental health score). Surveys were linked to administrative health databases to identify mental health-related visits to physicians in the two years following the baseline interview (1996-98). Prescriptions for anti-depressants were ascertained for participants aged 65+ years (eligible for drug benefits). The relationship between MH scores and MH-related physician visits was assessed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusting for confounders. For those aged 65+ years, logistic regression examined the probability of receiving any MH-related care (physician visit or anti-depressant prescription). Results Analyses were based on 2,005 (90.1%) individuals (mean age 70.8 years). Of 576 (28.7%) with probable depression (MH score < 60/100), 42.5% experienced one or more MH-related physician visits during follow-up. The likelihood of a physician visit was associated with sex (adjusted OR women vs. men = 5.87, p = 0.005) and MH score (adjusted OR per 10-point decrease in MH score = 1.63, p = 0.003). Among those aged 65+, 56.7% with probable depression received any MH care. The likelihood of receiving any MH care exhibited a significant interaction between MH score and self-reported health status (p = 0.0009); with good general health, worsening MH was associated with increased likelihood of MH care; as general health declined, this effect was attenuated. Conclusions Among older adults with painful OA, more than one-quarter had depressed mood, but almost half received no mental health care, suggesting a care gap. PMID:21910895

Oceanographic Determinants of Bycatch Patterns in the California Drift Gillnet Fishery: Building an EBFM Tool for Sustainable Fisheries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahlbeck, N.; Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-12-01

The reduction of bycatch, or incidental capture of non-target species in a fishery, is a key objective of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and critical to the conservation of many threatened marine species. Prediction of bycatch events is therefore of great importance to EBFM efforts. Here, bycatch of the ocean sunfish (Mola mola) and bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the California drift gillnet fishery is modeled using a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables as predictors. Data from 8321 gillnet sets was aggregated by month to reduce zero inflation and autocorrelation among sets, and a set of a priori generalized additive models (GAMs) was created for each species based on literature review and preliminary data exploration. Each of the models was fit using a binomial family with a logit link in R, and Aikake's Information Criterion with correction (AICc) was used in the first stage of model selection. K-fold cross validation was used in the second stage of model selection and performance assessment, using the least-squares linear model of predicted vs. observed values as the performance metric. The best-performing mola model indicated a strong, nearly linear negative correlation with sea surface temperature, as well as weaker nonlinear correlations with eddy kinetic energy, chlorophyll-a concentration and rugosity. These findings are consistent with current understanding of ocean sunfish habitat use; for example, previous studies suggest seasonal movement patterns and exploitation of dynamic, highly productive areas characteristic of upwelling regions. Preliminary results from the bluefin models also indicate seasonal fluctuation and correlation with environmental variables. These models can be used with near-real time satellite data as bycatch avoidance tools for both fishers and managers, allowing for the use of more dynamic ocean management strategies to improve sustainability of the fishery.

Oceanographic Determinants of Bycatch Patterns in the California Drift Gillnet Fishery: Building an EBFM Tool for Sustainable Fisheries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahlbeck, N.; Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-02-01

The reduction of bycatch, or incidental capture of non-target species in a fishery, is a key objective of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and critical to the conservation of many threatened marine species. Prediction of bycatch events is therefore of great importance to EBFM efforts. Here, bycatch of the ocean sunfish (Mola mola) and bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the California drift gillnet fishery is modeled using a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables as predictors. Data from 8321 gillnet sets was aggregated by month to reduce zero inflation and autocorrelation among sets, and a set of a priori generalized additive models (GAMs) was created for each species based on literature review and preliminary data exploration. Each of the models was fit using a binomial family with a logit link in R, and Aikake's Information Criterion with correction (AICc) was used in the first stage of model selection. K-fold cross validation was used in the second stage of model selection and performance assessment, using the least-squares linear model of predicted vs. observed values as the performance metric. The best-performing mola model indicated a strong, nearly linear negative correlation with sea surface temperature, as well as weaker nonlinear correlations with eddy kinetic energy, chlorophyll-a concentration and rugosity. These findings are consistent with current understanding of ocean sunfish habitat use; for example, previous studies suggest seasonal movement patterns and exploitation of dynamic, highly productive areas characteristic of upwelling regions. Preliminary results from the bluefin models also indicate seasonal fluctuation and correlation with environmental variables. These models can be used with near-real time satellite data as bycatch avoidance tools for both fishers and managers, allowing for the use of more dynamic ocean management strategies to improve sustainability of the fishery.

A multi-worksite analysis of the relationships among body mass index, medical utilization, and worker productivity.

PubMed

Goetzel, Ron Z; Gibson, Teresa B; Short, Meghan E; Chu, Bong-Chul; Waddell, Jessica; Bowen, Jennie; Lemon, Stephenie C; Fernandez, Isabel Diana; Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Wilson, Mark G; DeJoy, David M

2010-01-01

The relationships between worker health and productivity are becoming clearer. However, few large scale studies have measured the direct and indirect cost burden of overweight and obesity among employees using actual biometric values. The objective of this study was to quantify the direct medical and indirect (absence and productivity) cost burden of overweight and obesity in workers. A cross-sectional study of 10,026 employees in multiple professions and worksites across the United States was conducted. The main outcomes were five self-reported measures of workers' annual health care use and productivity: doctor visits, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, absenteeism (days absent from work), and presenteeism (percent on-the-job productivity losses). Multivariate count and continuous data models (Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson) were estimated. After adjusting for covariates, obese employees had 20% higher doctor visits than normal weight employees (confidence interval [CI] 16%, 24%, P < 0.01) and 26% higher emergency department visits (CI 11%, 42%, P < 0.01). Rates of doctor and emergency department visits for overweight employees were no different than those of normal weight employees. Compared to normal weight employees, presenteeism rates were 10% and 12% higher for overweight and obese employees, respectively (CI 5%, 15% and 5%, 19%, all P < 0.01). Taken together, compared to normal weight employees, obese and overweight workers were estimated to cost employers $644 and $201 more per employee per year, respectively. This study provides evidence that employers face a financial burden imposed by obesity. Implementation of effective workplace programs for the prevention and management of excess weight will benefit employers and their workers.

Do parent–child acculturation gaps affect early adolescent Latino alcohol use? A study of the probability and extent of use

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The literature has been mixed regarding how parent–child relationships are affected by the acculturation process and how this process relates to alcohol use among Latino youth. The mixed results may be due to, at least, two factors: First, staggered migration in which one or both parents arrive to the new country and then send for the children may lead to faster acculturation in parents than in children for some families. Second, acculturation may have different effects depending on which aspects of alcohol use are being examined. This study addresses the first factor by testing for a curvilinear trend in the acculturation-alcohol use relationship and the second by modeling past year alcohol use as a zero inflated negative binomial distribution. Additionally, this study examined the unique and mediation effects of parent–child acculturation discrepancies (gap), mother involvement in children’s schooling, father involvement in children’s schooling, and effective parenting on youth alcohol use during the last 12 months, measured as the probability of using and the extent of use. Direct paths from parent–child acculturation discrepancy to alcohol use, and mediated paths through mother involvement, father involvement, and effective parenting were also tested. Only father involvement fully mediated the path from parent–child acculturation discrepancies to the probability of alcohol use. None of the variables examined mediated the path from parent–child acculturation discrepancies to the extent of alcohol use. Effective parenting was unrelated to acculturation discrepancies; however, it maintained a significant direct effect on the probability of youth alcohol use and the extent of use after controlling for mother and father involvement. Implications for prevention strategies are discussed. PMID:23347822

Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Smartphone Assisted Versus Traditional Guided Self-Help for Adults with Binge Eating

PubMed Central

Hildebrandt, Tom; Michaelides, Andreas; Mackinnon, Dianna; Greif, Rebecca; DeBar, Lynn; Sysko, Robyn

2017-01-01

Objective Guided self-help treatments based on cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT-GSH) are efficacious for binge eating. With limited availability of CBT-GSH in the community, mobile technology offers a means to increase use of these interventions. The purpose of this study was to test the initial efficacy of Noom Monitor, a smartphone application designed to facilitate CBT-GSH (CBT-GSH+Noom), on study retention, adherence, and eating disorder symptoms compared to traditional CBT-GSH. Method Sixty-six men and women with DSM-5 binge eating disorder (BED) or bulimia nervosa (BN) were randomized to receive 8 sessions of CBT-GSH + Noom (n = 33) or CBT-GSH (n = 33) over 12 weeks. Primary symptom outcomes were Eating Disorder Examination objective bulimic episodes (OBEs), subjective bulimic episodes (SBEs), and compensatory behaviors. Assessments were collected at 0, 4, 8, 12, 24, and 36 weeks. Behavioral outcomes were modeled using zero-inflated negative-binomial latent growth curve models with intent-to-treat. Results There was a significant effect of treatment on change in OBEs (β =−0.84, 95%CI = −1.49, −0.19) favoring CBT-GSH + Noom. Remission rates were not statistically different between treatments for OBEs (βlogit =−0.73, 95%CI = −1.86, 3.27; CBT-GSH + Noom = 17/27, 63.0% vs. CBT-GSH 11/27, 40.7%, NNT = 4.5), but CBT-GSH + Noom participants reported greater meal and snack adherence and regular meal adherence mediated treatment effects on OBEs. The treatments did not differ at the 6-month follow-up. Discussion Smartphone applications for the treatment binge eating appear to have advantages for adherence, a critical component of treatment dissemination. PMID:28960384

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study.

PubMed

Sulz, Michael C; Siebert, Uwe; Arvandi, Marjan; Gothe, Raffaella M; Wurm, Johannes; von Känel, Roland; Vavricka, Stephan R; Meyenberger, Christa; Sagmeister, Markus

2013-07-01

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Maternal group B Streptococcus and the infant gut microbiota.

PubMed

Cassidy-Bushrow, A E; Sitarik, A; Levin, A M; Lynch, S V; Havstad, S; Ownby, D R; Johnson, C C; Wegienka, G

2016-02-01

Early patterns of gut colonization may predispose children to adult disease. Exposures in utero and during delivery are associated with the infant gut microbiome. Although ~35% of women carry group B strep (GBS; Streptococcus agalactiae) during pregnancy, it is unknown if GBS presence influences the infant gut microbiome. As part of a population-based, general risk birth cohort, stool specimens were collected from infant's diapers at research visits conducted at ~1 and 6 months of age. Using the Illumina MiSeq (San Diego, CA) platform, the V4 region of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene was sequenced. Infant gut bacterial community compositional differences by maternal GBS status were evaluated using permutational multivariate analysis of variance. Individual operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were tested using a zero-inflated negative binomial model. Data on maternal GBS and infant gut microbiota from either 1 (n=112) or 6-month-old stool (n=150) specimens was available on 262 maternal-child pairs. Eighty women (30.5%) were GBS+, of who 58 (72.5%) were given intrapartum antibiotics. After adjusting for maternal race, prenatal antifungal use and intrapartum antibiotics, maternal GBS status was statistically significantly associated with gut bacterial composition in the 6 month visit specimen (Canberra R 2=0.008, P=0.008; Unweighted UniFrac R 2=0.010, P=0.011). Individual OTU tests revealed that infants of GBS+ mothers were significantly enriched for specific members of the Clostridiaceae, Ruminococcoceae, and Enterococcaceae in the 6 month specimens compared with infants of GBS- mothers. Whether these taxonomic differences in infant gut microbiota at 6 months lead to differential predisposition for adult disease requires additional study.

High prevalence of dental caries among HIV-infected children in West Africa compared to uninfected siblings.

PubMed

Rajonson, Noëlla; Meless, David; Ba, Boubacar; Faye, Malick; Diby, Jean-Serge; N'zore, Serge; Datté, Sébastien; Diecket, Lucrèce; N'Diaye, Clémentine; Aka, Edmond Addi; Kouakou, Kouadio; Ba, Abou; Ekouévi, Didier Koumavi; Dabis, François; Shiboski, Caroline; Arrivé, Elise

2017-06-01

The objectives of this study were to investigate the association between HIV infection and dental caries among children in West Africa, and to identify factors associated with dental caries among HIV-infected children. We conducted a multi-center cross-sectional study in Mali, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire with a random sample of HIV-infected children aged 5-15 years on antiretroviral therapy and their uninfected siblings. A standardized examination was performed by calibrated dentists. The association between the number of decayed, missing or filled permanent and primary teeth surfaces (DMFdefS) and HIV status was investigated by fitting multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial models, for each age group (<12 and ≥12 years). Factors associated with dental caries could be investigated only for HIV-infected children <12 years old. The sample included 420 HIV-infected children and 418 non-infected siblings. The median DMFdefS was 7 for the HIV-infected children and 2 for the uninfected siblings. The proportion of children with DMFdefS ≥1 was significantly higher among the HIV-infected children than uninfected children (86.0 percent versus 64.4 percent, P < 0.001). The HIV-infected children were less likely to be caries-free than the uninfected siblings in both age groups. We found a higher degree of caries experience among HIV-infected children < 12 years old, in whom it was associated with sweet drink consumption, history of night bottle use, immunosuppression, and younger age at study entry. Although preventable, the burden of dental disease was high in children from families affected by HIV in West Africa and was associated with HIV infection and immunosuppression. © 2017 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Perceived Problem-Solving Deficits and Suicidal Ideation: Evidence for the Explanatory Roles of Thwarted Belongingness and Perceived Burdensomeness in Five Samples.

PubMed

Chu, Carol; Walker, Kristin L; Stanley, Ian H; Hirsch, Jameson K; Greenberg, Jeffrey H; Rudd, M David; Joiner, Thomas E

2017-06-26

Perceived social problem-solving deficits are associated with suicide risk; however, little research has examined the mechanisms underlying this relationship. The interpersonal theory of suicide proposes 2 mechanisms in the pathogenesis of suicidal desire: intractable feelings of thwarted belongingness (TB) and perceived burdensomeness (PB). This study tested whether TB and PB serve as explanatory links in the relationship between perceived social problem-solving (SPS) deficits and suicidal thoughts and behaviors cross-sectionally and longitudinally. The specificity of TB and PB was evaluated by testing depression as a rival mediator. Self-report measures of perceived SPS deficits, TB, PB, suicidal ideation, and depression were administered in 5 adult samples: 336 and 105 undergraduates from 2 universities, 53 homeless individuals, 222 primary care patients, and 329 military members. Bias-corrected bootstrap mediation and meta-analyses were conducted to examine the magnitude of the direct and indirect effects, and the proposed mediation paths were tested using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions. Cross-sectionally, TB and PB were significant parallel mediators of the relationship between perceived SPS deficits and ideation, beyond depression. Longitudinally and beyond depression, in 1 study, both TB and PB emerged as significant explanatory factors, and in the other, only PB was a significant mediator. Findings supported the specificity of TB and PB: Depression and SPS deficits were not significant mediators. The relationship between perceived SPS deficits and ideation was explained by interpersonal theory variables, particularly PB. Findings support a novel application of the interpersonal theory, and bolster a growing compendium of literature implicating perceived SPS deficits in suicide risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Factors associated with degree of atopy in Latino children in a nationwide pediatric sample: The GALA II Study

PubMed Central

Kumar, Rajesh; Nguyen, Elizabeth A; Roth, Lindsey A; Oh, Sam S; Gignoux, Christopher R.; Huntsman, Scott; Eng, Celeste; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Sandoval, Karla; Peñaloza-Espinosa, Rosenda; López-López, Marisol; Avila, Pedro C.; Farber, Harold J.; Tcheurekdjian, Haig; Rodriguez-Cintron, William; Rodriguez-Santana, Jose R; Serebrisky, Denise; Thyne, Shannon M.; Williams, L. Keoki; Winkler, Cheryl; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J.; Borrell, Luisa N.; Burchard, Esteban G

2013-01-01

Background Atopy varies by ethnicity even within Latino groups. This variation may be due to environmental, socio-cultural or genetic factors. Objective To examine risk factors for atopy within a nationwide study of U.S. Latino children with and without asthma. Methods Aeroallergen skin test repsonse was analyzed in 1830 US latino subjects. Key determinants of atopy included: country / region of origin, generation in the U.S., acculturation, genetic ancestry and site to which individuals migrated. Serial multivariate zero inflated negative binomial regressions, stratified by asthma status, examined the association of each key determinant variable with the number of positive skin tests. In addition, the independent effect of each key variable was determined by including all key variables in the final models. Results In baseline analyses, African ancestry was associated with 3 times as many positive skin tests in participants with asthma (95% CI:1.62–5.57) and 3.26 times as many positive skin tests in control participants (95% CI: 1.02–10.39). Generation and recruitment site were also associated with atopy in crude models. In final models adjusted for key variables, Puerto Rican [exp(β) (95%CI): 1.31(1.02–1.69)] and mixed ethnicity [exp(β) (95%CI):1.27(1.03–1.56)] asthmatics had a greater probability of positive skin tests compared to Mexican asthmatics. Ancestry associations were abrogated by recruitment site, but not region of origin. Conclusions Puerto Rican ethnicity and mixed origin were associated with degree of atopy within U.S. Latino children with asthma. African ancestry was not associated with degree of atopy after adjusting for recruitment site. Local environment variation, represented by site, was associated with degree of sensitization. PMID:23684070

Randomized controlled trial comparing smartphone assisted versus traditional guided self-help for adults with binge eating.

PubMed

Hildebrandt, Tom; Michaelides, Andreas; Mackinnon, Dianna; Greif, Rebecca; DeBar, Lynn; Sysko, Robyn

2017-11-01

Guided self-help treatments based on cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT-GSH) are efficacious for binge eating. With limited availability of CBT-GSH in the community, mobile technology offers a means to increase use of these interventions. The purpose of this study was to test the initial efficacy of Noom Monitor, a smartphone application designed to facilitate CBT-GSH (CBT-GSH + Noom), on study retention, adherence, and eating disorder symptoms compared to traditional CBT-GSH. Sixty-six men and women with DSM-5 binge-eating disorder (BED) or bulimia nervosa (BN) were randomized to receive eight sessions of CBT-GSH + Noom (n = 33) or CBT-GSH (n = 33) over 12 weeks. Primary symptom outcomes were eating disorder examination objective bulimic episodes (OBEs), subjective bulimic episodes (SBEs), and compensatory behaviors. Assessments were collected at 0, 4, 8, 12, 24, and 36 weeks. Behavioral outcomes were modeled using zero-inflated negative-binomial latent growth curve models with intent-to-treat. There was a significant effect of treatment on change in OBEs (β = -0.84, 95% CI = -1.49, -0.19) favoring CBT-GSH + Noom. Remission rates were not statistically different between treatments for OBEs (β logit  = -0.73, 95% CI = -1.86, 3.27; CBT-GSH-Noom = 17/27, 63.0% vs. CBT-GSH 11/27, 40.7%, NNT = 4.5), but CBT-GSH-Noom participants reported greater meal and snack adherence and regular meal adherence mediated treatment effects on OBEs. The treatments did not differ at the 6-month follow-up. Smartphone applications for the treatment binge eating appear to have advantages for adherence, a critical component of treatment dissemination. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting stem borer density in maize using RapidEye data and generalized linear models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M.; Landmann, Tobias; Kyalo, Richard; Ong'amo, George; Mwalusepo, Sizah; Sulieman, Saad; Ru, Bruno Le

2017-05-01

Average maize yield in eastern Africa is 2.03 t ha-1 as compared to global average of 6.06 t ha-1 due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In eastern Africa, maize yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% and 21% of the total production. The objective of the present study was to explore the possibility of RapidEye spectral data to assess stem borer larva densities in maize fields in two study sites in Kenya. RapidEye images were acquired for the Bomet (western Kenya) test site on the 9th of December 2014 and on 27th of January 2015, and for Machakos (eastern Kenya) a RapidEye image was acquired on the 3rd of January 2015. Five RapidEye spectral bands as well as 30 spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) were utilized to predict per field maize stem borer larva densities using generalized linear models (GLMs), assuming Poisson ('Po') and negative binomial ('NB') distributions. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were used to assess the models performance using a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. The Zero-inflated NB ('ZINB') models outperformed the 'NB' models and stem borer larva densities could only be predicted during the mid growing season in December and early January in both study sites, respectively (RMSE = 0.69-1.06 and RPD = 8.25-19.57). Overall, all models performed similar when all the 30 SVIs (non-nested) and only the significant (nested) SVIs were used. The models developed could improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers within integrated pest management (IPM) interventions.

United States black:white infant mortality disparities are not inevitable: identification of community resilience independent of socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Fry-Johnson, Yvonne W; Levine, Robert; Rowley, Diane; Agboto, Vincent; Rust, George

2010-01-01

U.S. disparities in Black:White infant mortality are persistent. National trends, however, may obscure local successes. Zero-corrected, negative binomial multivariable modeling was used to predict Black infant mortality (1999-2003) in all U.S. counties with reliable rates. Independent variables included county population size, racial composition, educational attainment, poverty, income and geographic origin. Resilient counties were defined as those whose Black infant mortality rate residual score was < 2.0. Mortality data was accessed from the Compressed Mortality File compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics and found on the CDC WONDER website. Demographic information was obtained from the US Census. The final model included the percentage of Blacks, age 18 to 64 years, speaking little or no English (P < .008), a socioeconomic index comprising educational attainment, poverty, and per capita income (P < .001), and household income in 1990 (P < .001). After accounting for these factors, a stratum comprising Essex and Plymouth Counties, Mass.; Bronx, N.Y.; and Multnomah, Ore. was identified as unusually resilient. Percentage of Black poverty and educational attainment in Black women in the resilient stratum approximated the average for all 330 counties. In 1979, Black infant mortality in the resilient stratum (23.6 per 1000 live births) exceeded Black US infant mortality (22.6). By 2001, Black infant mortality in the resilient stratum (5.6) was below the corresponding value for Whites (5.7). Resilient county neonatal mortality declined both early and late in the observation period, while post-neonatal declines were most marked after 1996. Models for reduction/elimination of racial disparities in US infant mortality, independent from county-level contextual measures of socioeconomic status, may already exist.

Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

PubMed

Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

2014-06-26

To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

Critical Analysis of the Mathematical Formalism of Theoretical Physics. V. Foundations of the Theory of Negative Numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalanov, Temur Z.

2015-04-01

Analysis of the foundations of the theory of negative numbers is proposed. The unity of formal logic and of rational dialectics is methodological basis of the analysis. Statement of the problem is as follows. As is known, point O in the Cartesian coordinate system XOY determines the position of zero on the scale. The number ``zero'' belongs to both the scale of positive numbers and the scale of negative numbers. In this case, the following formallogical contradiction arises: the number 0 is both positive number and negative number; or, equivalently, the number 0 is neither positive number nor negative number, i.e. number 0 has no sign. Then the following question arises: Do negative numbers exist in science and practice? A detailed analysis of the problem shows that negative numbers do not exist because the foundations of the theory of negative numbers contrary to the formal-logical laws. It is proved that: (a) all numbers have no signs; (b) the concepts ``negative number'' and ``negative sign of number'' represent a formallogical error; (c) signs ``plus'' and ``minus'' are only symbols of mathematical operations. The logical errors determine the essence of the theory of negative numbers: the theory of negative number is a false theory.

KPC-4 Is Encoded within a Truncated Tn4401 in an IncL/M Plasmid, pNE1280, Isolated from Enterobacter cloacae and Serratia marcescens

PubMed Central

Bryant, Kendall A.; Van Schooneveld, Trevor C.; Thapa, Ishwor; Bastola, Dhundy; Williams, Laurina O.; Safranek, Thomas J.; Hinrichs, Steven H.; Rupp, Mark E.

2013-01-01

We describe the transfer of blaKPC-4 from Enterobacter cloacae to Serratia marcescens in a single patient. DNA sequencing revealed that KPC-4 was encoded on an IncL/M plasmid, pNE1280, closely related to pCTX-M360. Further analysis found that KPC-4 was encoded within a novel Tn4401 element (Tn4401f) containing a truncated tnpA and lacking tnpR, ISKpn7 left, and Tn4401 IRL-1, which are conserved in other Tn4401 transposons. This study highlights the continued evolution of Tn4401 transposons and movement to multiple plasmid backbones that results in acquisition by multiple species of Gram-negative bacilli. PMID:23070154

Speech-discrimination scores modeled as a binomial variable.

PubMed

Thornton, A R; Raffin, M J

1978-09-01

Many studies have reported variability data for tests of speech discrimination, and the disparate results of these studies have not been given a simple explanation. Arguments over the relative merits of 25- vs 50-word tests have ignored the basic mathematical properties inherent in the use of percentage scores. The present study models performance on clinical tests of speech discrimination as a binomial variable. A binomial model was developed, and some of its characteristics were tested against data from 4120 scores obtained on the CID Auditory Test W-22. A table for determining significant deviations between scores was generated and compared to observed differences in half-list scores for the W-22 tests. Good agreement was found between predicted and observed values. Implications of the binomial characteristics of speech-discrimination scores are discussed.

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authorsmore » of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]« less

Charged particle multiplicities in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aid, S.; Anderson, M.; Andreev, V.; Andrieu, B.; Appuhn, R.-D.; Babaev, A.; Bähr, J.; Bán, J.; Ban, Y.; Baranov, P.; Barrelet, E.; Barschke, R.; Bartel, W.; Barth, M.; Bassler, U.; Beck, H. P.; Behrend, H.-J.; Belousov, A.; Berger, Ch.; Bernardi, G.; Bertrand-Coremans, G.; Besançon, M.; Beyer, R.; Biddulph, P.; Bispham, P.; Bizot, J. C.; Blobel, V.; Borras, K.; Botterweck, F.; Boudry, V.; Braemer, A.; Braunschweig, W.; Brisson, V.; Bruel, P.; Bruncko, D.; Brune, C.; Buchholz, R.; Büngener, L.; Bürger, J.; Büsser, F. W.; Buniatian, A.; Burke, S.; Burton, M. J.; Calvet, D.; Campbell, A. J.; Carli, T.; Charlet, M.; Clarke, D.; Clegg, A. B.; Clerbaux, B.; Cocks, S.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormack, C.; Coughlan, J. A.; Courau, A.; Cousinou, M.-C.; Cozzika, G.; Criegee, L.; Cussans, D. G.; Cvach, J.; Dagoret, S.; Dainton, J. B.; Dau, W. D.; Daum, K.; David, M.; Davis, C. L.; Delcourt, B.; de Roeck, A.; de Wolf, E. A.; Dirkmann, M.; Dixon, P.; di Nezza, P.; Dlugosz, W.; Dollfus, C.; Dowell, J. D.; Dreis, H. B.; Droutskoi, A.; Dünger, O.; Duhm, H.; Ebert, J.; Ebert, T. R.; Eckerlin, G.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Eichler, R.; Eisele, F.; Eisenhandler, E.; Elsen, E.; Erdmann, M.; Erdmann, W.; Evrard, E.; Fahr, A. B.; Favart, L.; Fedotov, A.; Feeken, D.; Felst, R.; Feltesse, J.; Ferencei, J.; Ferrarotto, F.; Flamm, K.; Fleischer, M.; Flieser, M.; Flügge, G.; Fomenko, A.; Fominykh, B.; Formánek, J.; Foster, J. M.; Franke, G.; Fretwurst, E.; Gabathuler, E.; Gabathuler, K.; Gaede, F.; Garvey, J.; Gayler, J.; Gebauer, M.; Genzel, H.; Gerhards, R.; Glazov, A.; Goerlach, U.; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Goldberg, M.; Goldner, D.; Golec-Biernat, K.; Gonzalez-Pineiro, B.; Gorelov, I.; Grab, C.; Grässler, H.; Greenshaw, T.; Griffiths, R. K.; Grindhammer, G.; Gruber, A.; Gruber, C.; Haack, J.; Hadig, T.; Haidt, D.; Hajduk, L.; Hampel, M.; Haynes, W. J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henderson, R. C. W.; Henschel, H.; Herynek, I.; Hess, M. F.; Hewitt, K.; Hildesheim, W.; Hiller, K. H.; Hilton, C. D.; Hladký, J.; Hoeger, K. C.; Höppner, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Holtom, T.; Horisberger, R.; Hudgson, V. L.; Hütte, M.; Ibbotson, M.; Itterbeck, H.; Jacholkowska, A.; Jacobsson, C.; Jaffre, M.; Janoth, J.; Jansen, T.; Jönsson, L.; Johnson, D. P.; Jung, H.; Kalmus, P. I. P.; Kander, M.; Kant, D.; Kaschowitz, R.; Kathage, U.; Katzy, J.; Kaufmann, H. H.; Kaufmann, O.; Kazarian, S.; Kenyon, I. R.; Kermiche, S.; Keuker, C.; Kiesling, C.; Klein, M.; Kleinwort, C.; Knies, G.; Köhler, T.; Köhne, J. H.; Kolanoski, H.; Kole, F.; Kolya, S. D.; Korbel, V.; Korn, M.; Kostka, P.; Kotelnikov, S. K.; Krämerkämper, T.; Krasny, M. W.; Krehbiel, H.; Krücker, D.; Küster, H.; Kuhlen, M.; Kurča, T.; Kurzhöfer, J.; Lacour, D.; Laforge, B.; Lander, R.; Landon, M. P. J.; Lange, W.; Langenegger, U.; Laporte, J.-F.; Lebedev, A.; Lehner, F.; Levonian, S.; Lindström, G.; Lindstroem, M.; Link, J.; Linsel, F.; Lipinski, J.; List, B.; Lobo, G.; Lomas, J. W.; Lopez, G. C.; Lubimov, V.; Lüke, D.; Magnussen, N.; Malinovski, E.; Mani, S.; Maraček, R.; Marage, P.; Marks, J.; Marshall, R.; Martens, J.; Martin, G.; Martin, R.; Martyn, H.-U.; Martyniak, J.; Mavroidis, T.; Maxfield, S. J.; McMahon, S. J.; Mehta, A.; Meier, K.; Meyer, A.; Meyer, A.; Meyer, H.; Meyer, J.; Meyer, P.-O.; Migliori, A.; Mikocki, S.; Milstead, D.; Moeck, J.; Moreau, F.; Morris, J. V.; Mroczko, E.; Müller, D.; Müller, G.; Müller, K.; Müller, M.; Murín, P.; Nagovizin, V.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naroska, B.; Naumann, Th.; Négri, I.; Newman, P. R.; Newton, D.; Nguyen, H. K.; Nicholls, T. C.; Niebergall, F.; Niebuhr, C.; Niedzballa, Ch.; Niggli, H.; Nisius, R.; Nowak, G.; Noyes, G. W.; Nyberg-Werther, M.; Oakden, M.; Oberlack, H.; Olsson, J. E.; Ozerov, D.; Palmen, P.; Panaro, E.; Panitch, A.; Pascaud, C.; Patel, G. D.; Pawletta, H.; Peppel, E.; Perez, E.; Phillips, J. P.; Pieuchot, A.; Pitzl, D.; Pope, G.; Prell, S.; Rabbertz, K.; Rädel, G.; Reimer, P.; Reinshagen, S.; Rick, H.; Riech, V.; Riedlberger, J.; Riepenhausen, F.; Riess, S.; Rizvi, E.; Robertson, S. M.; Robmann, P.; Roloff, H. E.; Roosen, R.; Rosenbauer, K.; Rostovtsev, A.; Rouse, F.; Royon, C.; Rüter, K.; Rusakov, S.; Rybicki, K.; Sankey, D. P. C.; Schacht, P.; Schiek, S.; Schleif, S.; Schleper, P.; von Schlippe, W.; Schmidt, D.; Schmidt, G.; Schöning, A.; Schröder, V.; Schuhmann, E.; Schwab, B.; Sefkow, F.; Seidel, M.; Sell, R.; Semenov, A.; Shekelyan, V.; Sheviakov, I.; Shtarkov, L. N.; Siegmon, G.; Siewert, U.; Sirois, Y.; Skillicorn, I. O.; Smirnov, P.; Smith, J. R.; Solochenko, V.; Soloviev, Y.; Specka, A.; Spiekermann, J.; Spielman, S.; Spitzer, H.; Squinabol, F.; Steenbock, M.; Steffen, P.; Steinberg, R.; Steiner, H.; Steinhart, J.; Stella, B.; Stellberger, A.; Stier, J.; Stiewe, J.; Stößlein, U.; Stolze, K.; Straumann, U.; Struczinski, W.; Sutton, J. P.; Tapprogge, S.; Taševský, M.; Tchernyshov, V.; Tchetchelnitski, S.; Theissen, J.; Thiebaux, C.; Thompson, G.; Truöl, P.; Tsipolitis, G.; Turnau, J.; Tutas, J.; Uelkes, P.; Usik, A.; Valkár, S.; Valkárová, A.; Vallée, C.; Vandenplas, D.; van Esch, P.; van Mechelen, P.; Vazdik, Y.; Verrecchia, P.; Villet, G.; Wacker, K.; Wagener, A.; Wagener, M.; Walther, A.; Waugh, B.; Weber, G.; Weber, M.; Wegener, D.; Wegner, A.; Wengler, T.; Werner, M.; West, L. R.; Wilksen, T.; Willard, S.; Winde, M.; Winter, G.-G.; Wittek, C.; Wobisch, M.; Wünsch, E.; Žáček, J.; Zarbock, D.; Zhang, Z.; Zhokin, A.; Zini, P.; Zomer, F.; Zsembery, J.; Zuber, K.; Zurnedden, M.

1996-12-01

Using the H1 detector at HERA, charged particle multiplicity distributions in deep inelastic e + p scattering have been measured over a large kinematical region. The evolution with W and Q 2 of the multiplicity distribution and of the multiplicity moments in pseudorapidity domains of varying size is studied in the current fragmentation region of the hadronic centre-of-mass frame. The results are compared with data from fixed target lepton-nucleon interactions, e + e - annihilations and hadron-hadron collisions as well as with expectations from QCD based parton models. Fits to the Negative Binomial and Lognormal distributions are presented.

The influence of neighborhood characteristics on the relationship between discrimination and increased drug-using social ties among illicit drug users.

PubMed

Crawford, Natalie D; Borrell, Luisa N; Galea, Sandro; Ford, Chandra; Latkin, Carl; Fuller, Crystal M

2013-04-01

Social discrimination may isolate drug users into higher risk relationships, particularly in disadvantaged neighborhood environments where drug trade occurs. We used negative binomial regression accounting for clustering of individuals within their recruitment neighborhood to investigate the relationship between high-risk drug ties with various forms of social discrimination, neighborhood minority composition, poverty and education. Results show that experiencing discrimination due to drug use is significantly associated with more drug ties in neighborhoods with fewer blacks. Future social network and discrimination research should assess the role of neighborhood social cohesion.

Neighborhood characteristics contribute to urban alcohol availability: Accounting for race/ethnicity and social disorganization.

PubMed

Snowden, Aleksandra J

2016-01-01

This study examined the role that race/ethnicity and social disorganization play in alcohol availability in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, census block groups. This study estimated negative binomial regression models to examine separately the relationship between neighborhood racial/ethnic composition and social disorganization levels for (1) total, (2) on-premise, and (3) off-premise alcohol outlets. Results of this study suggest that proportion Hispanic was positively associated with total and with off-premise alcohol outlets. Second, proportion African American was negatively associated with on-premise alcohol outlets and positively associated with off-premise alcohol outlets. Proportion Asian was not associated with total, on-premise, or off-premise alcohol outlets. However, the effects of race/ethnicity on alcohol availability were either unrelated or negatively related to alcohol outlet availability once neighborhood social disorganization levels were taken into account, and social disorganization was positively and significantly associated with all alcohol outlet types. Neighborhood characteristics contribute to alcohol availability and must be considered in any efforts aimed toward prevention of alcohol-related negative health and social outcomes.

The five-factor model of impulsivity-like traits and emotional lability in aggressive behavior.

PubMed

Dvorak, Robert D; Pearson, Matthew R; Kuvaas, Nicholas J

2013-01-01

Factors that increase automatic psychological processes may result in impulsive action and, consequently, aggressive behavior. The current cross-sectional study examined the association between the five-factor model of impulsivity-like traits (negative urgency, positive urgency, premeditation, perseverance, and sensation seeking), emotional lability, and physically aggressive behaviors among college students (n = 481) in a negative binomial hurdle model. In the logistic portion of the model, emotional lability was related to a higher likelihood of engaging in aggressive acts in the past 6 months. The association between emotional lability and the likelihood of aggressive behavior was moderated by two impulsivity-like traits: negative urgency and positive urgency. Specifically, emotional lability was related to engaging in aggressive acts among those with high negative urgency, and among those with low positive urgency. In the count portion of the model, emotional lability was uniquely related to the number of aggressive acts in the past 6 months. Our results indicate that emotional lability and facets of impulsivity interactively relate to engagement in aggressive behavior, suggesting that these variables be integrated into models of aggression. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Monte Carlo Risk Analysis of Life Cycle Cost Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

process which occurs with each FLU failure. With this in mind there is no alternative other than the binomial distribution. 24 GOR/SM/75D-6 With all of...Weibull distribution of failures as selected by user. For each failure of the ith FLU, the model then samples from the binomial distribution to deter- mine...which is sampled from the binomial . Neither of the two conditions for normality are met, i.e., that RTS Ie close to .5 and the number of samples close

Statistical methods for the beta-binomial model in teratology.

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, E; Yanagimoto, T

1994-01-01

The beta-binomial model is widely used for analyzing teratological data involving littermates. Recent developments in statistical analyses of teratological data are briefly reviewed with emphasis on the model. For statistical inference of the parameters in the beta-binomial distribution, separation of the likelihood introduces an likelihood inference. This leads to reducing biases of estimators and also to improving accuracy of empirical significance levels of tests. Separate inference of the parameters can be conducted in a unified way. PMID:8187716