Sample records for zilmer mihkel zilmer
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trondman, Anna-Kari; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Mazier, Florence; Fyfe, Ralph; Nielsen, Anne-Birgitte; Leydet, Michelle; Members, Landclim
2010-05-01
Quantitative estimates of land-cover changes during the Holocene have become increasingly important for a better understanding of the earth surface-atmosphere feedbacks, and refining climate models. The LANDCLIM project and research network (sponsored by the Swedish [VR] and Nordic [NordForsk] Research Councils) (see Gaillard et al., CL 1.22) have the objective to quantify human-induced changes in regional land-cover in NW Europe during the Holocene, and to evaluate the effects of these changes on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. We use the REVEALS model to estimate the percentage cover of groups of taxa (plant functional types, PFTs) from fossil pollen data. The past cover of PFTs will be compared with the outputs of the LPJ-GUESS, a widely-used dynamic vegetation model, and applied as an alternative to the simulated LPG-GUESS vegetation to run the regional climate model RCA3 for the past. The REVEALS model requires raw pollen counts, site radius, pollen productivity estimates (PPEs), and fall speed of pollen (FS). PPEs and FS are available for 34 taxa in the study area. The study area is divided between four principle investigators within the LANDCLIM project. A protocol was established in order to standardize the strategy and methods applied to prepare the pollen data and run REVEALS. It includes instructions for both data contributors and users on 1) chronologies, 2) pollen taxa and harmonization with the PPEs available, and 3) number of pollen taxa and datasets of PPEs to use in alternative test runs. New age-depth models were performed for several records to ensure consistency in the chronologies. The pollen records are selected from pollen databases, i.e. the European Pollen Database (EPD), the Czech Pollen Database (PALYCZ) and the Alpine Pollen Database (ALPDABA), as well as obtained directly from the authors. Using the pollen records of the Czech Pollen Database, the effect on the REVEALS estimates of 1) basin type (lakes or bogs), 2) number of pollen taxa, 3) PPEs dataset, and 4) number of dates per record used to establish the chronology (≥3 or ≥5) was tested (see Mazier et al. CL 1.21). Following the results of these tests, the first maps are based on REVEALS runs using pollen records from both lakes and bogs with ≥3 dates, 24 taxa (entomophilous taxa excluded), and the mean of all PPEs available in the study area. The maps are produced for 10 PFTs (LPJ-GUESS) and 3 PFTs (RCA3) at a spatial resolution of 1o x 1o for five selected time windows of the Holocene with contrasting human-induced land-cover (0-100 cal BP, 100-350 cal BP, 350-700 cal BP, 2700-3200 cal BP and 5700-6200 cal BP). The maps of PFTs show significant changes in the degree of human-induced vegetation openness through the Holocene over most of the study area. There are large discrepancies between these first quantitative land-cover maps and earlier maps based on pollen data and other methods such as biomization and the modern analogue approach. * The following LANDCLIM members are acknowledged for providing pollen records and for help with pollen databases: Teija Alenius (Espoo), Heather Almquist-Jacobson (Montana, USA), Lena Barnekow and Thomas Persson (Lund), Jonas Bergman (Stockholm), Anne Bjune and John Birks (Bergen), Thomas Giesecke (Göttingen), Rixt de Jong (Bern), Mihkel Kangur and Tiiuu Koff (Tallinn), Malgorzata Latalowa (Gdansk), Ann-Marie Robertsson (Stockholm), Ulf Segerström and Henrik von Stedingk (Umeå), Heikki Seppä (Helsinki). Sugita, S. 2007. The Holocene, 17, 229-241.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Sugita, Shinya; Rundgren, Mats; Smith, Benjamin; Mazier, Florence; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Fyfe, Ralph; Kokfelt, Ulla; Nielsen, Anne-Birgitte; Strandberg, Gustav
2010-05-01
Reliable predictive models are needed to describe potential future climate changes and their impacts. Land surface-atmosphere feedbacks and their impacts on climate are a current priority in the climate modelling community, but reliable records of long-term land use and vegetation change required for model evaluation are limited. Palaeoecological and palaeo-climatic data provide a unique record of the past changes in vegetation, land use and climate on time scales relevant to vegetation processes and global change projections. The application of a new technique (the REVEALS model (Sugita 2007) to landscape reconstruction using fossil pollen data makes robust comparisons with vegetation model output possible . The model corrects for biases caused by e.g. inter-taxonomic differences in pollen productivity and dispersal. Our results show that pollen percentages, a traditional indicator of land cover changes, generally underestimate the unforested areas and certain broad-leaved trees such as Corylus and Tilia, while they often overestimate Betula and Pinus (see Cui et al. BG 6.2). Climate models use simplified land-surface classifications (plant functional types (PFTs)), such as grass (i.e. open land), deciduous trees, and conifers. Therefore, the observed large discrepancies in past land cover between the REVEALS estimates and pollen percentages are expected to influence model outcomes of the Holocene regional climate in NW Europe. The LANDCLIM project and research network (sponsored by the Swedish [VR] and Nordic [NordForsk] Research Councils) aim to quantify human-induced changes in regional vegetation/land-cover in NW Europe during the Holocene, and to evaluate the effects of these changes on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. We use the REVEALS model, theoretically derived and empirically tested, to estimate the percentage cover of taxa and groups of taxa (PFTs) from fossil pollen data for selected time windows of the Holocene, at a spatial resolution of ca. 1o x 1o. The REVEALS estimates of the past cover of PFTs will be 1) compared with the outputs of the LPJ-GUESS (10 PFTs), a widely-used dynamic vegetation model and 2) used as an alternative to the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (3 PFTs) to run for the past the regional climate model RCA3 developed at the Rossby Centre, Norrköping, Sweden. The study will evaluate and further refine these models (RCA3 and LPJ-GUESS) using a data-model comparison approach that incorporates new syntheses of palaeoclimatic data as well. It will lead to new assessments of the possible effect of various factors on climate, such as deforestations and afforestations, and changes in vegetation composition and spatial patterns of land cover/land use. Refined climate models and empirical land-cover reconstructions will shed new light on controversial hypotheses of past climate change and human impacts, such as the "Ruddiman hypothesis". First maps of REVEALS estimates of plant functional types (PFTs) are now available for Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Germany, The Czech Republic, Switzerland and Britain (see Mazier et al. C1.21 and Trondman et al. C1.22). Correlation tests show that the REVEALS estimates are robust in terms of ranking of the PFTs' abundance (see Mazier et al, C1.21). The LANDCLIM project and network are a contribution to the IGBP-PAGES-Focus 4 PHAROS programme on human impact on environmental changes in the past. The following LANDCLIM members are acknowledged for providing pollen records, for help with pollen databases, and for providing results to the project: Mihkel Kangur and Tiiu Koff (Univ. Tallinn, Tallinn); Erik Kjellström (SMHI, Norrköping), Anna Broström, Lena Barnekow and Thomas Persson (GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Lund University); Anneli Poska (Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University); Thomas Giesecke (Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Göttingen), Anne Bjune and John Birks (Dept. of Biology, University of Bergen); Pim van der Knaap (Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern); Malgorzata Latalowa (University of Gdansk); Michelle Leydet (IMEP CNRS 6116, University of Marseille III); Teija Alenius (Finnish Geological Survey, Espoo), Heather Almquist-Jacobson (Univ. Montana, USA), Jonas Bergman (Univ. Stockholm), Rixt de Jong (Univ. Bern), Jutta Lechterbeck (Hemmenhofen, Germany), Ann-Marie Robertsson (Univ. Stockholm), Ulf Segerström and Henrik von Stedingk (Univ. Umeå), Heikki Seppä (Univ. Helsinki). Sugita 2007. The Holocene, 17, 229-241.