ARMA-Based SEM When the Number of Time Points T Exceeds the Number of Cases N: Raw Data Maximum Likelihood.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2003-01-01

Demonstrated, through simulation, that stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models may be fitted readily when T>N, using normal theory raw maximum likelihood structural equation modeling. Also provides some illustrations based on real data. (SLD)

GOBF-ARMA based model predictive control for an ideal reactive distillation column.

PubMed

Seban, Lalu; Kirubakaran, V; Roy, B K; Radhakrishnan, T K

2015-11-01

This paper discusses the control of an ideal reactive distillation column (RDC) using model predictive control (MPC) based on a combination of deterministic generalized orthonormal basis filter (GOBF) and stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. Reactive distillation (RD) integrates reaction and distillation in a single process resulting in process and energy integration promoting green chemistry principles. Improved selectivity of products, increased conversion, better utilization and control of reaction heat, scope for difficult separations and the avoidance of azeotropes are some of the advantages that reactive distillation offers over conventional technique of distillation column after reactor. The introduction of an in situ separation in the reaction zone leads to complex interactions between vapor-liquid equilibrium, mass transfer rates, diffusion and chemical kinetics. RD with its high order and nonlinear dynamics, and multiple steady states is a good candidate for testing and verification of new control schemes. Here a combination of GOBF-ARMA models is used to catch and represent the dynamics of the RDC. This GOBF-ARMA model is then used to design an MPC scheme for the control of product purity of RDC under different operating constraints and conditions. The performance of proposed modeling and control using GOBF-ARMA based MPC is simulated and analyzed. The proposed controller is found to perform satisfactorily for reference tracking and disturbance rejection in RDC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of Arma chinensis reared on an artificial diet formulated using transcriptomic methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An artificial diet formulated for continuous rearing of the predator Arma chinensis was inferior to natural prey when evaluated using life history parameters. A transcriptome analysis identified differentially expressed genes in diet-fed and prey-fed A. chinensis that were suggestive of molecular me...

Research on light rail electric load forecasting based on ARMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yifan

2018-04-01

The article compares a variety of time series models and combines the characteristics of power load forecasting. Then, a light load forecasting model based on ARMA model is established. Based on this model, a light rail system is forecasted. The prediction results show that the accuracy of the model prediction is high.

Distribution of 16S rRNA Methylases Among Different Species of Aminoglycoside-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae in a Tertiary Care Hospital in Poland.

PubMed

Piekarska, Katarzyna; Zacharczuk, Katarzyna; Wołkowicz, Tomasz; Rzeczkowska, Magdalena; Bareja, Elżbieta; Olak, Monika; Gierczyński, Rafał

2016-01-01

Aminoglycosides are a group of antimicrobial agents still the most commonly used in the treatment of life-threatening bacterial infections in human and animals. The emergence and spread of 16S rRNA methylases, which confer high-level resistance to the majority of clinically relevant aminoglycosides, constitute a major public health concern. Our goal was to evaluate the distribution of 16S rRNA methylases among different species of Enterobacteriaceae during a five month-long survey in a tertiary hospital in Warszawa, Poland. In the survey, a total of 1770 non-duplicate clinical isolates were collected from all hospital wards in a tertiary hospital in Warszawa, Poland. The survey was conducted between 19 April and 19 September 2010. The ability to produce 16S rRNA methylase was examined by determining MICs for gentamicin, kanamycin, amikacin by means of the agar dilution method. The isolates resistant to high concentration of aminoglycosides were PCR tested for genes: armA, rmtA, rmtB and rmtC. PCR products were subjected to DNA sequencing by the Sanger method. The genetic similarity of the ArmA-producing isolates was analysed by pulsed-filed gel electrophoresis (PFGE). ArmA was the only 16S rRNA methylase detected in 20 of 1770 tested isolates. The overall prevalence rate of ArmA was 1.13%. In K. pneumoniae (n = 742), P. mirabilis (n = 130), and E. cloacae (n = 253) collected in the survey, the prevalence of ArmA was 0.4%, 0.8% and 5.9%, respectively. The PFGE revealed both horizontal and clonal spread of the armA gene in the hospital. The prevalence of 16S rRNA methylase ArmA reported in this study is significantly higher than observed in other countries in Europe.

Parameter estimation of an ARMA model for river flow forecasting using goal programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Kourosh; Eslami, H. R.; Kahawita, Rene

2006-11-01

SummaryRiver flow forecasting constitutes one of the most important applications in hydrology. Several methods have been developed for this purpose and one of the most famous techniques is the Auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model. In the research reported here, the goal was to minimize the error for a specific season of the year as well as for the complete series. Goal programming (GP) was used to estimate the ARMA model parameters. Shaloo Bridge station on the Karun River with 68 years of observed stream flow data was selected to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results when compared with the usual method of maximum likelihood estimation were favorable with respect to the new proposed algorithm.

Dissemination of Genes Encoding Aminoglycoside-Modifying Enzymes and armA Among Enterobacteriaceae Isolates in Northwest Iran.

PubMed

Ghotaslou, Reza; Yeganeh Sefidan, Fatemeh; Akhi, Mohammad Taghi; Asgharzadeh, Mohammad; Mohammadzadeh Asl, Yalda

2017-10-01

Enzymatic inactivation is one of the most important mechanisms of resistance to aminoglycosides. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of armA and diversity of the genes encoding aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes (AMEs) and their associations with resistance phenotypes in Enterobacteriaceae isolates. Three hundred and seven Enterobacteriaceae isolates were collected from five hospitals in northwest Iran. The disk diffusion method for amikacin, gentamicin, tobramycin, kanamycin, and streptomycin, as well as the minimum inhibitory concentration for amikacin, gentamicin, tobramycin, and kanamycin were done for susceptibility testing. Thirteen AME genes and armA methylase were screened using the PCR and sequencing assays. Two hundred and twenty (71.7%) of isolates were resistant to aminoglycosides and 155 (70.5%) of them were positive for aminoglycoside resistance genes. The most prevalent AME genes were ant(3″)-Ia and aph(3″)-Ib with the frequency 35.9% and 30.5%, respectively. Also, 21 (9.5%) of resistant isolates were positive for armA methylase gene. The prevalence of resistance to aminoglycoside is high and AME genes frequently are disseminated in Enterobacteriaceae isolates. There is an association between phenotypic resistance and the presence of some aminoglycoside genes.

Rasch measurement: the Arm Activity measure (ArmA) passive function sub-scale.

PubMed

Ashford, Stephen; Siegert, Richard J; Alexandrescu, Roxana

2016-01-01

To evaluate the conformity of the Arm Activity measure (ArmA) passive function sub-scale to the Rasch model. A consecutive cohort of patients (n = 92) undergoing rehabilitation, including upper limb rehabilitation and spasticity management, at two specialist rehabilitation units were included. Rasch analysis was used to examine scaling and conformity to the model. Responses were analysed using Rasch unidimensional measurement models (RUMM 2030). The following aspects were considered: overall model and individual item fit statistics and fit residuals, internal reliability, item response threshold ordering, item bias, local dependency and unidimensionality. ArmA contains both active and passive function sub-scales, but in this analysis only the passive function sub-scale was considered. Four of the seven items in the ArmA passive function sub-scale initially had disordered thresholds. These items were rescored to four response options, which resulted in ordered thresholds for all items. Once the items with disordered thresholds had been rescored, item bias was not identified for age, global disability level or diagnosis, but with a small difference in difficulty between males and females for one item of the scale. Local dependency was not observed and the unidimensionality of the sub-scale was supported and good fit to the Rasch model was identified. The person separation index (PSI) was 0.95 indicating that the scale is able to reliably differentiate at least two groups of patients. The ArmA passive function sub-scale was shown in this evaluation to conform to the Rasch model once disordered thresholds had been addressed. Using the logit scores produced by the Rasch model it was possible to convert this back to the original scale range. Implications for Rehabilitation The ArmA passive function sub-scale was shown, in this evaluation, to conform to the Rasch model once disordered thresholds had been addressed and therefore to be a clinically applicable and potentially useful hierarchical measure. Using Rasch logit scores it has be possible to convert back to the original ordinal scale range and provide an indication of real change to enable evaluation of clinical outcome of importance to patients and clinicians.

Comparison between volatility return intervals of the S&P 500 index and two common models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vodenska-Chitkushev, I.; Wang, F. Z.; Weber, P.; Yamasaki, K.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-01-01

We analyze the S&P 500 index data for the 13-year period, from January 1, 1984 to December 31, 1996, with one data point every 10 min. For this database, we study the distribution and clustering of volatility return intervals, which are defined as the time intervals between successive volatilities above a certain threshold q. We find that the long memory in the volatility leads to a clustering of above-median as well as below-median return intervals. In addition, it turns out that the short return intervals form larger clusters compared to the long return intervals. When comparing the empirical results to the ARMA-FIGARCH and fBm models for volatility, we find that the fBm model predicts scaling better than the ARMA-FIGARCH model, which is consistent with the argument that both ARMA-FIGARCH and fBm capture the long-term dependence in return intervals to a certain extent, but only fBm accounts for the scaling. We perform the Student's t-test to compare the empirical data with the shuffled records, ARMA-FIGARCH and fBm. We analyze separately the clusters of above-median return intervals and the clusters of below-median return intervals for different thresholds q. We find that the empirical data are statistically different from the shuffled data for all thresholds q. Our results also suggest that the ARMA-FIGARCH model is statistically different from the S&P 500 for intermediate q for both above-median and below-median clusters, while fBm is statistically different from S&P 500 for small and large q for above-median clusters and for small q for below-median clusters. Neither model can fully explain the entire regime of q studied.

Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

2016-08-01

We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vassiliadis, D.; Klimas, A. J.; Baker, D. N.

1996-01-01

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Technology transfer from havana hospitals to primary care: yamila de armas, MD. Deputy director, provincial health department, havana city province.

PubMed

Giraldo, Gloria

2009-01-01

Dr Yamila de Armas has occupied an array of posts since finishing her residency in family medicine in her home province of Cienfuegos in 1992. She has served as a family doctor; polyclinic, municipal and provincial health director; medical school dean; and twice vice minister of public health. But few would doubt her toughest job is the one she has now: deputy director of the Havana City Provincial Health Department, in charge of medical services for the 2.2 million people living in Cuba's complex, sprawling capital. It was here in 2002-2003 that the program was launched to repair, refurbish and expand the country's nearly 500 community polyclinics. Key to the effort was equipping these facilities with a broader range of new and upgraded medical technology. Dr de Armas offers MEDICC Review her reflections on the results five years later.

A vertical handoff decision algorithm based on ARMA prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ru; Shen, Jiao; Chen, Jun; Liu, Qiuhuan

2012-01-01

With the development of computer technology and the increasing demand for mobile communications, the next generation wireless networks will be composed of various wireless networks (e.g., WiMAX and WiFi). Vertical handoff is a key technology of next generation wireless networks. During the vertical handoff procedure, handoff decision is a crucial issue for an efficient mobility. Based on auto regression moving average (ARMA) prediction model, we propose a vertical handoff decision algorithm, which aims to improve the performance of vertical handoff and avoid unnecessary handoff. Based on the current received signal strength (RSS) and the previous RSS, the proposed approach adopt ARMA model to predict the next RSS. And then according to the predicted RSS to determine whether trigger the link layer triggering event and complete vertical handoff. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the RSS-based scheme with a threshold in the performance of handoff and the number of handoff.

Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran.

PubMed

Hassanzadeh, S; Hosseinibalam, F; Alizadeh, R

2009-08-01

This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.

ARMA models for earthquake ground motions. Seismic safety margins research program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, M. K.; Kwiatkowski, J. W.; Nau, R. F.

1981-02-01

Four major California earthquake records were analyzed by use of a class of discrete linear time-domain processes commonly referred to as ARMA (Autoregressive/Moving-Average) models. It was possible to analyze these different earthquakes, identify the order of the appropriate ARMA model(s), estimate parameters, and test the residuals generated by these models. It was also possible to show the connections, similarities, and differences between the traditional continuous models (with parameter estimates based on spectral analyses) and the discrete models with parameters estimated by various maximum-likelihood techniques applied to digitized acceleration data in the time domain. The methodology proposed is suitable for simulatingmore » earthquake ground motions in the time domain, and appears to be easily adapted to serve as inputs for nonlinear discrete time models of structural motions. 60 references, 19 figures, 9 tables.« less

Comparison of two non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming algorithms applied to autoregressive moving average model structure and parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uilhoorn, F. E.

2016-10-01

In this article, the stochastic modelling approach proposed by Box and Jenkins is treated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem solved with a mesh adaptive direct search and a real-coded genetic class of algorithms. The aim is to estimate the real-valued parameters and non-negative integer, correlated structure of stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. The maximum likelihood function of the stationary ARMA process is embedded in Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion, whereas the estimation procedure is based on Kalman filter recursions. The constraints imposed on the objective function enforce stability and invertibility. The best ARMA model is regarded as the global minimum of the non-convex MINLP problem. The robustness and computational performance of the MINLP solvers are compared with brute-force enumeration. Numerical experiments are done for existing time series and one new data set.

Forecasting Instability Indicators in the Horn of Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

further than 2 (Makridakis, et al, 1983, 359). 2-32 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( ARIMA ) Model . Similar to the ARMA model except for...stationary process. ARIMA models are described as ARIMA (p,d,q), where p is the order of the autoregressive process, d is the degree of the...differential process, and q is the order of the moving average process. The ARMA (1,1) model shown above is equivalent to an ARIMA (1,0,1) model . An ARIMA

Azacitidine in combination with intensive induction chemotherapy in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia: The AML-AZA trial of the Study Alliance Leukemia.

PubMed

Müller-Tidow, C; Tschanter, P; Röllig, C; Thiede, C; Koschmieder, A; Stelljes, M; Koschmieder, S; Dugas, M; Gerss, J; Butterfaß-Bahloul, T; Wagner, R; Eveslage, M; Thiem, U; Krause, S W; Kaiser, U; Kunzmann, V; Steffen, B; Noppeney, R; Herr, W; Baldus, C D; Schmitz, N; Götze, K; Reichle, A; Kaufmann, M; Neubauer, A; Schäfer-Eckart, K; Hänel, M; Peceny, R; Frickhofen, N; Kiehl, M; Giagounidis, A; Görner, M; Repp, R; Link, H; Kiani, A; Naumann, R; Brümmendorf, T H; Serve, H; Ehninger, G; Berdel, W E; Krug, U

2016-03-01

DNA methylation changes are a constant feature of acute myeloid leukemia. Hypomethylating drugs such as azacitidine are active in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) as monotherapy. Azacitidine monotherapy is not curative. The AML-AZA trial tested the hypothesis that DNA methyltransferase inhibitors such as azacitidine can improve chemotherapy outcome in AML. This randomized, controlled trial compared the efficacy of azacitidine applied before each cycle of intensive chemotherapy with chemotherapy alone in older patients with untreated AML. Event-free survival (EFS) was the primary end point. In total, 214 patients with a median age of 70 years were randomized to azacitidine/chemotherapy (arm-A) or chemotherapy (arm-B). More arm-A patients (39/105; 37%) than arm-B (25/109; 23%) showed adverse cytogenetics (P=0.057). Adverse events were more frequent in arm-A (15.44) versus 13.52 in arm-B, (P=0.26), but early death rates did not differ significantly (30-day mortality: 6% versus 5%, P=0.76). Median EFS was 6 months in both arms (P=0.96). Median overall survival was 15 months for patients in arm-A compared with 21 months in arm-B (P=0.35). Azacitidine added to standard chemotherapy increases toxicity in older patients with AML, but provides no additional benefit for unselected patients.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)more » models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.« less

Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

2012-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with ARMA(1,2) errors were fit to the observations. Preliminary model validation exercises at a 30-day forecast horizon show that the ARMA error models generally improve the predictive skill of the linear regression rating curves. Skill seems to vary based on the ambient hydrologic conditions at the onset of the forecast. For example, ARMA error model forecasts issued before a high flow/turbidity event do not show significant improvements over the rating curve approach. However, ARMA error model forecasts issued during the "falling limb" of the hydrograph are significantly more accurate than rating curves for both single day and accumulated event predictions. In order to assist in reservoir operations decisions associated with turbidity events and general water supply reliability, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST). OST integrates a reservoir operations model with 2D hydrodynamic water quality models and a database compiling near-real-time data sources and hydrologic forecasts. Currently, OST uses conventional flow-turbidity rating curves and hydrologic forecasts for predictive turbidity inputs. Given the improvements in predictive skill over traditional rating curves, the ARMA error models are currently being evaluated as an addition to DEP's Operations Support Tool.

Two-stage damage diagnosis based on the distance between ARMA models and pre-whitening filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, H.; Mita, A.

2007-10-01

This paper presents a two-stage damage diagnosis strategy for damage detection and localization. Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are fitted to time series of vibration signals recorded by sensors. In the first stage, a novel damage indicator, which is defined as the distance between ARMA models, is applied to damage detection. This stage can determine the existence of damage in the structure. Such an algorithm uses output only and does not require operator intervention. Therefore it can be embedded in the sensor board of a monitoring network. In the second stage, a pre-whitening filter is used to minimize the cross-correlation of multiple excitations. With this technique, the damage indicator can further identify the damage location and severity when the damage has been detected in the first stage. The proposed methodology is tested using simulation and experimental data. The analysis results clearly illustrate the feasibility of the proposed two-stage damage diagnosis methodology.

ARMAS and NAIRAS Comparisons of Radiation at Aviation Altitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, L. D.

2015-12-01

Space Environment Technologies and the Space Weather Center (SWC) at Utah State University are deploying and obtaining effective dose rate radiation data from dosimeters flown on research aircraft. This project is called Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS). Through several dozen flights since 2013 the ARMAS project has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro-dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the real-time radiation environment resulting from galactic cosmic rays (GCR's) and solar energetic particles (SEP's). Space weather effects upon the near Earth environment are to dynamic changes in the energy transfer process from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. The coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect human tissue and the aircrafts technology as a result of radiation exposure. We describe and compare the types of radiation we have been measuring with the NAIRAS global climatological model as it relates to human tissue susceptibility and as a source at different altitude regions.

Flood Nowcasting With Linear Catchment Models, Radar and Kalman Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pegram, Geoff; Sinclair, Scott

A pilot study using real time rainfall data as input to a parsimonious linear distributed flood forecasting model is presented. The aim of the study is to deliver an operational system capable of producing flood forecasts, in real time, for the Mgeni and Mlazi catchments near the city of Durban in South Africa. The forecasts can be made at time steps which are of the order of a fraction of the catchment response time. To this end, the model is formulated in Finite Difference form in an equation similar to an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model; it is this formulation which provides the required computational efficiency. The ARMA equation is a discretely coincident form of the State-Space equations that govern the response of an arrangement of linear reservoirs. This results in a functional relationship between the reservoir response con- stants and the ARMA coefficients, which guarantees stationarity of the ARMA model. Input to the model is a combined "Best Estimate" spatial rainfall field, derived from a combination of weather RADAR and Satellite rainfield estimates with point rain- fall given by a network of telemetering raingauges. Several strategies are employed to overcome the uncertainties associated with forecasting. Principle among these are the use of optimal (double Kalman) filtering techniques to update the model states and parameters in response to current streamflow observations and the application of short term forecasting techniques to provide future estimates of the rainfield as input to the model.

AGN Variability: Probing Black Hole Accretion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Jackeline; O'Brien, Jack; Vogeley, Michael S.; Richards, Gordon T.; Kasliwal, Vishal P.

2017-01-01

We combine the long temporal baseline of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) for quasars in Stripe 82 with the high precision photometry of the Kepler/K2 Satellite to study the physics of optical variability in the accretion disk and supermassive black hole engine. We model the lightcurves directly as Continuous-time Auto Regressive Moving Average processes (C-ARMA) with the Kali analysis package (Kasliwal et al. 2016). These models are extremely robust to irregular sampling and can capture aperiodic variability structure on various timescales. We also estimate the power spectral density and structure function of both the model family and the data. A Green's function kernel may also be estimated for the resulting C-ARMA parameter fit, which may be interpreted as the response to driving impulses such as hotspots in the accretion disk. We also examine available spectra for our AGN sample to relate observed and modelled behavior to spectral properties. The objective of this work is twofold: to explore the proper physical interpretation of different families of C-ARMA models applied to AGN optical flux variability and to relate empirical characteristic timescales of our AGN sample to physical theory or to properties estimated from spectra or simulations like the disk viscosity and temperature. We find that AGN with strong variability features on timescales resolved by K2 are well modelled by a low order C-ARMA family while K2 lightcurves with weak amplitude variability are dominated by outliers and measurement errors which force higher order model fits. This work explores a novel approach to combining SDSS and K2 data sets and presents recovered characteristic timescales of AGN variability.

Assessment of variability in the hydrological cycle of the Loess Plateau, China: examining dependence structures of hydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, A.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Investigating variability in dependence structures of hydrological processes is of critical importance for developing an understanding of mechanisms of hydrological cycles in changing environments. In focusing on this topic, present work involves the following: (1) identifying and eliminating serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in monthly streamflow (Q), precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) series using the ARMA-GARCH model (ARMA: autoregressive moving average; GARCH: generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity); (2) describing dependence structures of hydrological processes using partial copula coupled with the ARMA-GARCH model and identifying their variability via copula-based likelihood-ratio test method; and (3) determining conditional probability of annual Q under different climate scenarios on account of above results. This framework enables us to depict hydrological variables in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity and to examine dependence structures of hydrological processes while excluding the influence of covariates by using partial copula-based ARMA-GARCH model. Eight major catchments across the Loess Plateau (LP) are used as study regions. Results indicate that (1) The occurrence of change points in dependence structures of Q and P (PE) varies across the LP. Change points of P-PE dependence structures in all regions almost fully correspond to the initiation of global warming, i.e., the early 1980s. (3) Conditional probabilities of annual Q under various P and PE scenarios are estimated from the 3-dimensional joint distribution of (Q, P and PE) based on the above change points. These findings shed light on mechanisms of the hydrological cycle and can guide water supply planning and management, particularly in changing environments.

A statistical approach for generating synthetic tip stress data from limited CPT soundings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basalams, M.K.

CPT tip stress data obtained from a Uranium mill tailings impoundment are treated as time series. A statistical class of models that was developed to model time series is explored to investigate its applicability in modeling the tip stress series. These models were developed by Box and Jenkins (1970) and are known as Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. This research demonstrates how to apply the ARMA models to tip stress series. Generation of synthetic tip stress series that preserve the main statistical characteristics of the measured series is also investigated. Multiple regression analysis is used to model the regional variationmore » of the ARMA model parameters as well as the regional variation of the mean and the standard deviation of the measured tip stress series. The reliability of the generated series is investigated from a geotechnical point of view as well as from a statistical point of view. Estimation of the total settlement using the measured and the generated series subjected to the same loading condition are performed. The variation of friction angle with depth of the impoundment materials is also investigated. This research shows that these series can be modeled by the Box and Jenkins ARMA models. A third degree Autoregressive model AR(3) is selected to represent these series. A theoretical double exponential density function is fitted to the AR(3) model residuals. Synthetic tip stress series are generated at nearby locations. The generated series are shown to be reliable in estimating the total settlement and the friction angle variation with depth for this particular site.« less

Tracking Electroencephalographic Changes Using Distributions of Linear Models: Application to Propofol-Based Depth of Anesthesia Monitoring.

PubMed

Kuhlmann, Levin; Manton, Jonathan H; Heyse, Bjorn; Vereecke, Hugo E M; Lipping, Tarmo; Struys, Michel M R F; Liley, David T J

2017-04-01

Tracking brain states with electrophysiological measurements often relies on short-term averages of extracted features and this may not adequately capture the variability of brain dynamics. The objective is to assess the hypotheses that this can be overcome by tracking distributions of linear models using anesthesia data, and that anesthetic brain state tracking performance of linear models is comparable to that of a high performing depth of anesthesia monitoring feature. Individuals' brain states are classified by comparing the distribution of linear (auto-regressive moving average-ARMA) model parameters estimated from electroencephalographic (EEG) data obtained with a sliding window to distributions of linear model parameters for each brain state. The method is applied to frontal EEG data from 15 subjects undergoing propofol anesthesia and classified by the observers assessment of alertness/sedation (OAA/S) scale. Classification of the OAA/S score was performed using distributions of either ARMA parameters or the benchmark feature, Higuchi fractal dimension. The highest average testing sensitivity of 59% (chance sensitivity: 17%) was found for ARMA (2,1) models and Higuchi fractal dimension achieved 52%, however, no statistical difference was observed. For the same ARMA case, there was no statistical difference if medians are used instead of distributions (sensitivity: 56%). The model-based distribution approach is not necessarily more effective than a median/short-term average approach, however, it performs well compared with a distribution approach based on a high performing anesthesia monitoring measure. These techniques hold potential for anesthesia monitoring and may be generally applicable for tracking brain states.

Accessibility and quality of secondary care rheumatology services for people with inflammatory arthritis: a regional survey.

PubMed

Sandhu, R S; Treharne, G J; Justice, E A; Jordan, A C; Saravana, S; Obrenovic, K; Erb, N; Kitas, G D; Rowe, I F

2007-12-01

Secondary care rheumatology services for patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA) in the West Midlands were audited using Arthritis and Musculoskeletal Alliance (ARMA) standards of care. Questionnaires were analysed from 1,715 patients in 11 rheumatology departments. ARMA standards recommend full multidisciplinary team assessment; referral rates to nurse specialists (52.3%), physiotherapists (48.7%) and occupational therapists (36.5%) were, however, lower than expected. Attendance at existing hospital-led education groups was rare (8.9%), awareness of existing helplines was moderate (59.2%) but the proportion of patients reporting satisfaction with advice about their disease was high (80.5%). Significant variations were found between departments. For patients with IA < 2 years (n = 236), 84.5% were seen by a rheumatologist within the ARMA standard of 12 weeks of referral; diagnosis of a type of IA was made at the first rheumatology appointment in 66.4%; 82.8% of rheumatoid arthritis patients had commenced disease-modifying drugs, although time to commencement varied across departments. This study raises issues regarding provision of rheumatology services, prioritisation of patient referral and patient education.

Unusual association of NDM-1 with KPC-2 and armA among Brazilian Enterobacteriaceae isolates

PubMed Central

Quiles, M.G.; Rocchetti, T.T.; Fehlberg, L.C.; Kusano, E.J.U.; Chebabo, A.; Pereira, R.M.G.; Gales, A.C.; Pignatari, A.C.C.

2014-01-01

We report the microbiological characterization of four New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase-1 (bla NDM-1)-producing Enterobacteriaceae isolated in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. bla NDM-1 was located on a conjugative plasmid and was associated with Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase-2 (bla KPC-2) or aminoglycoside-resistance methylase (armA), a 16S rRNA methylase not previously reported in Brazil, in two distinct strains of Enterobacter cloacae. Our results suggested that the introduction of bla NDM-1 in Brazil has been accompanied by rapid spread, since our isolates showed no genetic relationship. PMID:25466163

Atmospheric radiation flight dose rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. K.

2015-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the domains that are affected by space weather, the coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, the magnetosphere, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect humans and our technology as a result of radiation exposure. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has been conducting space weather observations of the atmospheric radiation environment at aviation altitudes that will eventually be transitioned into air traffic management operations. The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) system and Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX) both are providing dose rate measurements. Both activities are under the ARMAS goal of providing the "weather" of the radiation environment to improve aircraft crew and passenger safety. Over 5-dozen ARMAS and USEWX flights have successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the real-time radiation environment resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The real-time radiation exposure is computed as an effective dose rate (body-averaged over the radiative-sensitive organs and tissues in units of microsieverts per hour); total ionizing dose is captured on the aircraft, downlinked in real-time, processed on the ground into effective dose rates, compared with NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC) most recent Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) global radiation climatology model runs, and then made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. Flight altitudes now exceed 60,000 ft. and extend above commercial aviation altitudes into the stratosphere. In this presentation we describe recent ARMAS and USEWX results.

Performance evaluation of ionospheric time delay forecasting models using GPS observations at a low-latitude station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivavaraprasad, G.; Venkata Ratnam, D.

2017-07-01

Ionospheric delay is one of the major atmospheric effects on the performance of satellite-based radio navigation systems. It limits the accuracy and availability of Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, related to critical societal and safety applications. The temporal and spatial gradients of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) are driven by several unknown priori geophysical conditions and solar-terrestrial phenomena. Thereby, the prediction of ionospheric delay is challenging especially over Indian sub-continent. Therefore, an appropriate short/long-term ionospheric delay forecasting model is necessary. Hence, the intent of this paper is to forecast ionospheric delays by considering day to day, monthly and seasonal ionospheric TEC variations. GPS-TEC data (January 2013-December 2013) is extracted from a multi frequency GPS receiver established at K L University, Vaddeswaram, Guntur station (geographic: 16.37°N, 80.37°E; geomagnetic: 7.44°N, 153.75°E), India. An evaluation, in terms of forecasting capabilities, of three ionospheric time delay models - an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and a Holt-Winter's model is presented. The performances of these models are evaluated through error measurement analysis during both geomagnetic quiet and disturbed days. It is found that, ARMA model is effectively forecasting the ionospheric delay with an accuracy of 82-94%, which is 10% more superior to ARIMA and Holt-Winter's models. Moreover, the modeled VTEC derived from International Reference Ionosphere, IRI (IRI-2012) model and new global TEC model, Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM-GL) have compared with forecasted VTEC values of ARMA, ARIMA and Holt-Winter's models during geomagnetic quiet days. The forecast results are indicating that ARMA model would be useful to set up an early warning system for ionospheric disturbances at low latitude regions.

Parameter prediction based on Improved Process neural network and ARMA error compensation in Evaporation Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Xiaoshan

2018-01-01

The traditional model of evaporation process parameters have continuity and cumulative characteristics of the prediction error larger issues, based on the basis of the process proposed an adaptive particle swarm neural network forecasting method parameters established on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error correction procedure compensated prediction model to predict the results of the neural network to improve prediction accuracy. Taking a alumina plant evaporation process to analyze production data validation, and compared with the traditional model, the new model prediction accuracy greatly improved, can be used to predict the dynamic process of evaporation of sodium aluminate solution components.

Maximum likelihood estimation for periodic autoregressive moving average models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

A useful class of models for seasonal time series that cannot be filtered or standardized to achieve second-order stationarity is that of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, which are extensions of ARMA models that allow periodic (seasonal) parameters. An approximation to the exact likelihood for Gaussian PARMA processes is developed, and a straightforward algorithm for its maximization is presented. The algorithm is tested on several periodic ARMA(1, 1) models through simulation studies and is compared to moment estimation via the seasonal Yule-Walker equations. Applicability of the technique is demonstrated through an analysis of a seasonal stream-flow series from the Rio Caroni River in Venezuela.

Modeling Geodetic Processes with Levy α-Stable Distribution and FARIMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montillet, Jean-Philippe; Yu, Kegen

2015-04-01

Over the last years the scientific community has been using the auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model in the modeling of the noise in global positioning system (GPS) time series (daily solution). This work starts with the investigation of the limit of the ARMA model which is widely used in signal processing when the measurement noise is white. Since a typical GPS time series consists of geophysical signals (e.g., seasonal signal) and stochastic processes (e.g., coloured and white noise), the ARMA model may be inappropriate. Therefore, the application of the fractional auto-regressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) model is investigated. The simulation results using simulated time series as well as real GPS time series from a few selected stations around Australia show that the FARIMA model fits the time series better than other models when the coloured noise is larger than the white noise. The second fold of this work focuses on fitting the GPS time series with the family of Levy α-stable distributions. Using this distribution, a hypothesis test is developed to eliminate effectively coarse outliers from GPS time series, achieving better performance than using the rule of thumb of n standard deviations (with n chosen empirically).

Multi-step-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a hybrid grey wave model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanhui; Zhang, Chuan; He, Kaijian; Zheng, Aibing

2018-07-01

Crude oil is crucial to the operation and economic well-being of the modern society. Huge changes of crude oil price always cause panics to the global economy. There are many factors influencing crude oil price. Crude oil price prediction is still a difficult research problem widely discussed among researchers. Based on the researches on Heterogeneous Market Hypothesis and the relationship between crude oil price and macroeconomic factors, exchange market, stock market, this paper proposes a hybrid grey wave forecasting model, which combines Random Walk (RW)/ARMA to forecast multi-step-ahead crude oil price. More specifically, we use grey wave forecasting model to model the periodical characteristics of crude oil price and ARMA/RW to simulate the daily random movements. The innovation also comes from using the information of the time series graph to forecast crude oil price, since grey wave forecasting is a graphical prediction method. The empirical results demonstrate that based on the daily data of crude oil price, the hybrid grey wave forecasting model performs well in 15- to 20-step-ahead prediction and it always dominates ARMA and Random Walk in correct direction prediction.

Development, Verification and Use of Gust Modeling in the NASA Computational Fluid Dynamics Code FUN3D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert E.

2012-01-01

This paper presents the implementation of gust modeling capability in the CFD code FUN3D. The gust capability is verified by computing the response of an airfoil to a sharp edged gust. This result is compared with the theoretical result. The present simulations will be compared with other CFD gust simulations. This paper also serves as a users manual for FUN3D gust analyses using a variety of gust profiles. Finally, the development of an Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) reduced order gust model using a gust with a Gaussian profile in the FUN3D code is presented. ARMA simulated results of a sequence of one-minus-cosine gusts is shown to compare well with the same gust profile computed with FUN3D. Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) is combined with the ARMA modeling technique to predict the time varying pressure coefficient increment distribution due to a novel gust profile. The aeroelastic response of a pitch/plunge airfoil to a gust environment is computed with a reduced order model, and compared with a direct simulation of the system in the FUN3D code. The two results are found to agree very well.

Ionospheric TEC from the Turkish Permanent GNSS Network (TPGN) and comparison with ARMA and IRI models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansari, Kutubuddin; Panda, Sampad Kumar; Althuwaynee, Omar F.; Corumluoglu, Ozsen

2017-09-01

The present study investigates the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) variations in the lower mid-latitude Turkish region from the Turkish Permanent GNSS Network (TPGN) and International GNSS Services (IGS) observations during the year 2016. The corresponding vertical TEC (VTEC) predicted by Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI-2016) models are evaluated to realize their effectiveness over the region. The spatial, diurnal and seasonal behavior of VTEC and the relative VTEC variations are modeled with Ordinary Least Square Estimator (OLSE). The spatial behavior of modeled result during March equinox and June solstice indicates an inverse relationship of VTEC with the longitude across the region. On the other hand, the VTEC variation during September equinox and December solstice including March equinox and June solstice are decreasing with increase in latitude. The GNSS observed and modeled diurnal variation of the VTEC show that the VTEC slowly increases with dawn, attains a broader duration of peak around 09.00 to 12.00 UT, and thereafter decreases gradually reaching minimum around 21.00 UT. The seasonal variation of VTEC shows an annual mode, maxima in equinox and minima in solstice. The average value of VTEC during the June solstice is with slightly higher value than the March equinox though variations during the latter season is more. Moreover, the study shows minimum average value during December solstice compared to June solstice at all stations. The comparative analysis demonstrates the prediction errors by OLSE, ARMA and IRI remaining between 0.23 to 1.17%, 2.40 to 4.03% and 24.82 to 25.79% respectively. Also, the observed VTEC seasonal variation has good agreement with OLSE and ARMA models whereas IRI-VTEC often underestimated the observed value at each location. Hence, the deviations of IRI estimated VTEC compared to ARMA and OLSE models claim further improvements in IRI model over the Turkish region. Although IRI estimations are well accepted over the mid-latitudes but the performance over the lower mid-latitudes is not satisfactory and needs further improvement. The long-term TEC data from the TPGN network can be incorporated in the IRI under laying database with appropriate calibration for further improvement of estimation accuracy over the region.

Modeling methodology for MLS range navigation system errors using flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karmali, M. S.; Phatak, A. V.

1982-01-01

Flight test data was used to develop a methodology for modeling MLS range navigation system errors. The data used corresponded to the constant velocity and glideslope approach segment of a helicopter landing trajectory. The MLS range measurement was assumed to consist of low frequency and random high frequency components. The random high frequency component was extracted from the MLS range measurements. This was done by appropriate filtering of the range residual generated from a linearization of the range profile for the final approach segment. This range navigation system error was then modeled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. Maximum likelihood techniques were used to identify the parameters of the ARMA process.

Simultaneous Estimation of Electromechanical Modes and Forced Oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Follum, Jim; Pierre, John W.; Martin, Russell

Over the past several years, great strides have been made in the effort to monitor the small-signal stability of power systems. These efforts focus on estimating electromechanical modes, which are a property of the system that dictate how generators in different parts of the system exchange energy. Though the algorithms designed for this task are powerful and important for reliable operation of the power system, they are susceptible to severe bias when forced oscillations are present in the system. Forced oscillations are fundamentally different from electromechanical oscillations in that they are the result of a rogue input to the system,more » rather than a property of the system itself. To address the presence of forced oscillations, the frequently used AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is adapted to include sinusoidal inputs, resulting in the AutoRegressive Moving Average plus Sinusoid (ARMA+S) model. From this model, a new Two-Stage Least Squares algorithm is derived to incorporate the forced oscillations, thereby enabling the simultaneous estimation of the electromechanical modes and the amplitude and phase of the forced oscillations. The method is validated using simulated power system data as well as data obtained from the western North American power system (wNAPS) and Eastern Interconnection (EI).« less

A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Kakeh, Nabil; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

2015-04-01

This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7 cm for 1 to 30 days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80 %. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9 cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85 %. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faranda, Davide, E-mail: davide.faranda@cea.fr; Dubrulle, Bérengère; Daviaud, François

We introduce a novel way to extract information from turbulent datasets by applying an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) statistical analysis. Such analysis goes well beyond the analysis of the mean flow and of the fluctuations and links the behavior of the recorded time series to a discrete version of a stochastic differential equation which is able to describe the correlation structure in the dataset. We introduce a new index Υ that measures the difference between the resulting analysis and the Obukhov model of turbulence, the simplest stochastic model reproducing both Richardson law and the Kolmogorov spectrum. We test themore » method on datasets measured in a von Kármán swirling flow experiment. We found that the ARMA analysis is well correlated with spatial structures of the flow, and can discriminate between two different flows with comparable mean velocities, obtained by changing the forcing. Moreover, we show that the Υ is highest in regions where shear layer vortices are present, thereby establishing a link between deviations from the Kolmogorov model and coherent structures. These deviations are consistent with the ones observed by computing the Hurst exponents for the same time series. We show that some salient features of the analysis are preserved when considering global instead of local observables. Finally, we analyze flow configurations with multistability features where the ARMA technique is efficient in discriminating different stability branches of the system.« less

Modeling variations in the cedi/dollar exchange rate in Ghana: an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) models.

PubMed

Techie Quaicoe, Michael; Twenefour, Frank B K; Baah, Emmanuel M; Nortey, Ezekiel N N

2015-01-01

This research article aimed at modeling the variations in the dollar/cedi exchange rate. It examines the applicability of a range of ARCH/GARCH specifications for modeling volatility of the series. The variants considered include the ARMA, GARCH, IGARCH, EGARCH and M-GARCH specifications. The results show that the series was non stationary which resulted from the presence of a unit root in it. The ARMA (1, 1) was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean. From the Box-Ljung test statistics x-squared of 1476.338 with p value 0.00217 for squared returns and 16.918 with 0.0153 p values for squared residuals, the null hypothesis of no ARCH effect was rejected at 5% significance level indicating the presence of an ARCH effect in the series. ARMA (1, 1) + GARCH (1, 1) which has all parameters significant was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean with conditional variance, thus showing adequacy in describing the conditional mean with variance of the return series at 5% significant level. A 24 months forecast for the mean actual exchange rates and mean returns from January, 2013 to December, 2014 made also showed that the fitted model is appropriate for the data and a depreciating trend of the cedi against the dollar for forecasted period respectively.

Operational specification and forecasting advances for Dst, LEO thermospheric densities, and aviation radiation dose and dose rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Knipp, D. J.; Burke, W. J.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Hagan, M. P.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Garrett, H. B.; Bowman, B. R.; Gannon, J. L.; Atwell, W.; Blake, J. B.; Crain, W.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Fulgham, J.; Bell, D.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Fuschino, R.; Flynn, C.; Cecil, K.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Crowley, G.; Reynolds, A.; Azeem, S. I.; Wiley, S.; Holland, M.; Malone, K.

2013-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the magnetosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has developed and is producing innovative space weather applications. Key operational systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather on these domains are SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), and Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven, redundant data stream Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. LAPS is the SET fully redundant operational system providing recent history, current epoch, and forecast solar and geomagnetic indices for use in operational versions of the JB2008 thermospheric density model. The thermospheric densities produced by that system, driven by the LAPS data, are forecast to 72-hours to provide the global mass densities for satellite operators. ARMAS is a project that has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on aircraft to capture the real-time radiation environment due to Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The dose and dose-rates are captured on aircraft, downlinked in real-time via the Iridium satellites, processed on the ground, incorporated into the most recent NAIRAS global radiation climatology data runs, and made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. ARMAS provides the 'weather' of the radiation environment to improve air-crew and passenger safety. Many of the data products from MAPS, LAPS, and ARMAS are available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android professional users and public space weather education. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving the space weather information from these automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.

Prototype Operational Advances for Atmospheric Radiation Dose Rate Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. K.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Judge, K.; Garrett, H. B.; Atwell, W.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Bell, D.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Crowley, G.; Reynolds, A.; Azeem, I.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Wiley, S.; Bacon, S.; Teets, E.; Sim, A.; Dominik, L.

2014-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. The coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, the magnetosphere, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect humans and our technology as a result of radiation exposure. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has developed innovative, new space weather observations that will become part of the toolset that is transitioned into operational use. One prototype operational system for providing timely information about the effects of space weather is SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) system. ARMAS will provide the "weather" of the radiation environment to improve aircraft crew and passenger safety. Through several dozen flights the ARMAS project has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the real-time radiation environment resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The real-time radiation exposure is computed as an effective dose rate (body-averaged over the radiative-sensitive organs and tissues in units of microsieverts per hour); total ionizing dose is captured on the aircraft, downlinked in real-time via Iridium satellites, processed on the ground into effective dose rates, compared with NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC) most recent Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) global radiation climatology model runs, and then made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. We are extending the dose measurement domain above commercial aviation altitudes into the stratosphere with a collaborative project organized by NASA's Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) called Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX). In USEWX we will be flying on the ER-2 high altitude aircraft a micro dosimeter for effective dose rate measurements and a thermal neutron monitor to characterize Single Event Effects (SEEs) in avionics. In this presentation we describe recent ARMAS and USEWX advances that will ultimately provide operational users with real-time dose and dose rate data for human tissue and avionics exposure risk mitigation.

A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

2010-05-01

Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part II: seasonal predictability. J. Climate, 2503-2518, 2008. Ionita, M., G. Lohmann, and N. Rimbu, Prediction of spring Elbe river discharge based on stable teleconnections with global temperature and precipitation. J. Climate. 6215-6226, 2008.

KARMA4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, Mohammad; Salloum, Maher; Lee, Jina

2017-07-10

KARMA4 is a C++ library for autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling and forecasting of time-series data while incorporating both process and observation error. KARMA4 is designed for fitting and forecasting of time-series data for predictive purposes.

Estudio participativo para el desarrolllo de un instrumento de observación de violencia escolar

PubMed Central

Medina Santiago, Nilda G.; Rivera, Tania Cruz; Rodríguez, Maryanes Trenche; Báez Ávila, Loggina S.

2018-01-01

La violencia en las escuelas es reconocida como un problema de salud pública a nivel mundial que impacta negativamente el proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje. Sin embargo, en Puerto Rico las estadísticas oficiales y los medios de comunicación generalmente se enfocan en hechos aislados de violencia extrema donde se utilizan armas o se destruye propiedad y no recogen formas de violencia más comunes que suelen ocurrir a diario en las escuelas. En este estudio se utilizó el Instrumento de Observación de Violencia Escolar (INOVE), preparado con el insumo de las comunidades escolares participantes del Proyecto VIAS (Violence and Asthma Health Disparity Network) de la Universidad del Este (UNE), para recopilar información acerca de las características de la violencia en dos escuelas puertorriqueñas. Entre los hallazgos del estudio se destacan diferencias por sexo en cuanto a categorías de violencia observadas y la observación de agresividad en juegos e interacciones entre estudiantes. Los datos recopilados han servido de base para la toma de decisiones en cuanto a la prevención de la violencia en las escuelas participantes y tienen implicaciones para el desarrollo de estrategias y programas de prevención. PMID:29643972

Sequential Monte Carlo for inference of latent ARMA time-series with innovations correlated in time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urteaga, Iñigo; Bugallo, Mónica F.; Djurić, Petar M.

2017-12-01

We consider the problem of sequential inference of latent time-series with innovations correlated in time and observed via nonlinear functions. We accommodate time-varying phenomena with diverse properties by means of a flexible mathematical representation of the data. We characterize statistically such time-series by a Bayesian analysis of their densities. The density that describes the transition of the state from time t to the next time instant t+1 is used for implementation of novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. We present a set of SMC methods for inference of latent ARMA time-series with innovations correlated in time for different assumptions in knowledge of parameters. The methods operate in a unified and consistent manner for data with diverse memory properties. We show the validity of the proposed approach by comprehensive simulations of the challenging stochastic volatility model.

Compression of head-related transfer function using autoregressive-moving-average models and Legendre polynomials.

PubMed

Shekarchi, Sayedali; Hallam, John; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

2013-11-01

Head-related transfer functions (HRTFs) are generally large datasets, which can be an important constraint for embedded real-time applications. A method is proposed here to reduce redundancy and compress the datasets. In this method, HRTFs are first compressed by conversion into autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) filters whose coefficients are calculated using Prony's method. Such filters are specified by a few coefficients which can generate the full head-related impulse responses (HRIRs). Next, Legendre polynomials (LPs) are used to compress the ARMA filter coefficients. LPs are derived on the sphere and form an orthonormal basis set for spherical functions. Higher-order LPs capture increasingly fine spatial details. The number of LPs needed to represent an HRTF, therefore, is indicative of its spatial complexity. The results indicate that compression ratios can exceed 98% while maintaining a spectral error of less than 4 dB in the recovered HRTFs.

Forecasting daily lake levels using artificial intelligence approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Nikoofar, Bagher

2012-04-01

Accurate prediction of lake-level variations is important for planning, design, construction, and operation of lakeshore structures and also in the management of freshwater lakes for water supply purposes. In the present paper, three artificial intelligence approaches, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and gene expression programming (GEP), were applied to forecast daily lake-level variations up to 3-day ahead time intervals. The measurements at the Lake Iznik in Western Turkey, for the period of January 1961-December 1982, were used for training, testing, and validating the employed models. The results obtained by the GEP approach indicated that it performs better than ANFIS and ANNs in predicting lake-level variations. A comparison was also made between these artificial intelligence approaches and convenient autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, which demonstrated the superiority of GEP, ANFIS, and ANN models over ARMA models.

Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

PubMed

Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

2017-01-01

Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Representation of high frequency Space Shuttle data by ARMA algorithms and random response spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spanos, P. D.; Mushung, L. J.

1990-01-01

High frequency Space Shuttle lift-off data are treated by autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) digital algorithms. These algorithms provide useful information on the spectral densities of the data. Further, they yield spectral models which lend themselves to incorporation to the concept of the random response spectrum. This concept yields a reasonably smooth power spectrum for the design of structural and mechanical systems when the available data bank is limited. Due to the non-stationarity of the lift-off event, the pertinent data are split into three slices. Each of the slices is associated with a rather distinguishable phase of the lift-off event, where stationarity can be expected. The presented results are rather preliminary in nature; it is aimed to call attention to the availability of the discussed digital algorithms and to the need to augment the Space Shuttle data bank as more flights are completed.

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

2014-04-14

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation.more » We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.« less

Drug-induced modification of the system properties associated with spontaneous human electroencephalographic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liley, David T.; Cadusch, Peter J.; Gray, Marcus; Nathan, Pradeep J.

2003-11-01

The benzodiazepine (BZ) class of minor tranquilizers are important modulators of the γ-amino butyric acid (GABAA)/BZ receptor complex that are well known to affect the spectral properties of spontaneous electroencephalographic activity. While it is experimentally well established that the BZs reduce total alpha band (8 13 Hz) power and increase total beta band (13 30 Hz) power, it is unclear what the physiological basis for this effect is. Based on a detailed theory of cortical electrorhythmogenesis it is conjectured that such an effect is explicable in terms of the modulation of GABAergic neurotransmission within locally connected populations of excitatory and inhibitory cortical neurons. Motivated by this theory, fixed order autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were fitted to spontaneous eyes-closed electroencephalograms recorded from subjects before and approximately 2 h after the oral administration of a single 1 mg dose of the BZ alprazolam. Subsequent pole-zero analysis revealed that BZs significantly transform the dominant system pole such that its frequency and damping increase. Comparisons of ARMA derived power spectra with fast Fourier transform derived spectra indicate an enhanced ability to identify benzodiazepine induced electroencephalographic changes. This experimental result is in accord with the theoretical predictions implying that alprazolam enhances inhibition acting on inhibitory neurons more than inhibition acting on excitatory neurons. Further such a result is consistent with reported cortical neuronal distributions of the various GABAA receptor pharmacological subtypes. Therefore physiologically specified fixed order ARMA modeling is expected to become an important tool for the systematic investigation and modeling of a wide range of cortically acting compounds.

Global real-time dose measurements using the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Bouwer, D.; Smart, D.; Shea, M.; Bailey, J.; Didkovsky, L.; Judge, K.; Garrett, H.; Atwell, W.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R.; Bell, D.; Mertens, C.; Xu, X.; Wiltberger, M.; Wiley, S.; Teets, E.; Jones, B.; Hong, S.; Yoon, K.

2016-11-01

The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) program has successfully deployed a fleet of six instruments measuring the ambient radiation environment at commercial aircraft altitudes. ARMAS transmits real-time data to the ground and provides quality, tissue-relevant ambient dose equivalent rates with 5 min latency for dose rates on 213 flights up to 17.3 km (56,700 ft). We show five cases from different aircraft; the source particles are dominated by galactic cosmic rays but include particle fluxes for minor radiation periods and geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The measurements from 2013 to 2016 do not cover a period of time to quantify galactic cosmic rays' dependence on solar cycle variation and their effect on aviation radiation. However, we report on small radiation "clouds" in specific magnetic latitude regions and note that active geomagnetic, variable space weather conditions may sufficiently modify the magnetospheric magnetic field that can enhance the radiation environment, particularly at high altitudes and middle to high latitudes. When there is no significant space weather, high-latitude flights produce a dose rate analogous to a chest X-ray every 12.5 h, every 25 h for midlatitudes, and every 100 h for equatorial latitudes at typical commercial flight altitudes of 37,000 ft ( 11 km). The dose rate doubles every 2 km altitude increase, suggesting a radiation event management strategy for pilots or air traffic control; i.e., where event-driven radiation regions can be identified, they can be treated like volcanic ash clouds to achieve radiation safety goals with slightly lower flight altitudes or more equatorial flight paths.

Operational specification and forecasting advances for Dst, LEO thermospheric densities, and aviation radiation dose and dose rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent

Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the magnetosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has developed and is producing innovative space weather applications. Key operational systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather on these domains are SET’s Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), and Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven, redundant data stream Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. In addition, an ENLIL/Rice Dst prediction out to several days has also been developed and will be described. LAPS is the SET fully redundant operational system providing recent history, current epoch, and forecast solar and geomagnetic indices for use in operational versions of the JB2008 thermospheric density model. The thermospheric densities produced by that system, driven by the LAPS data, are forecast to 72-hours to provide the global mass densities for satellite operators. ARMAS is a project that has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on aircraft to capture the real-time radiation environment due to Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The dose and dose-rates are captured on aircraft, downlinked in real-time via the Iridium satellites, processed on the ground, incorporated into the most recent NAIRAS global radiation climatology data runs, and made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. ARMAS provides the “weather” of the radiation environment to improve air-crew and passenger safety. Many of the data products from MAPS, LAPS, and ARMAS are available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android professional users and public space weather education. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving the space weather information from these automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.

Spread of ISCR1 elements containing blaDHA-₁ and multiple antimicrobial resistance genes leading to increase of flomoxef resistance in extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae.

PubMed

Lee, Chen-Hsiang; Liu, Jien-Wei; Li, Chia-Chin; Chien, Chun-Chih; Tang, Ya-Fen; Su, Lin-Hui

2011-09-01

Increasing resistance to quinolones, aminoglycosides, and/or cephamycins in extended-spectrum-β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae exacerbates the already limited antibiotic treatment options for infections due to these microbes. In this study, the presence of resistance determinants for these antimicrobial agents was examined by PCR among ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-KP) isolates that caused bacteremia. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis was used to differentiate the clonal relationship among the isolates studied. Transferability and the location of the resistance genes were analyzed by conjugation experiments, followed by DNA-DNA hybridization. Among the 94 ESBL-KP isolates studied, 20 isolates of flomoxef-resistant ESBL-KP were identified. They all carried a DHA-1 gene and were genetically diverse. CTX-M genes were found in 18 of the isolates. Among these DHA-1/CTX-M-producing K. pneumoniae isolates, ISCR1 was detected in 13 (72%) isolates, qnr genes (1 qnrA and 17 qnrB genes) were detected in 18 (100%), aac(6')-Ib-cr was detected in 11 (61%), and 16S rRNA methylase (all armA genes) was detected in 14 (78%). Four transconjugants were available for further analysis, and qnrB4, aac(6')-Ib-cr, armA, and bla(DHA-1) were all identified on these self-transferable bla(CTX-M)-carrying plasmids. The genetic environments of ISCR1 associated with armA, bla(DHA-1), and qnrB4 genes in the four transconjugants were identical. Replicon-type analysis revealed a FIIA plasmid among the four self-transferable plasmids, although the other three were nontypeable. The cotransfer of multiple resistance genes with the ISCR1 element-carrying plasmids has a clinical impact and warrants close monitoring and further study.

Teaching "Filing Rules"--Via Computer-Aided Instruction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agneberg, Craig

A computer software package has been developed to teach and test students on the Rules for Alphabetical Filing of the Association of Records Managers and Administrators (ARMA). The following computer assisted instruction principles were used in developing the program: gaining attention, stating objectives, providing direction, reviewing…

37. Closeup of stairs in previous photo, leading up to ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

37. Close-up of stairs in previous photo, leading up to El Macho and down to Plaza de Armas, from Santa Barbara Bastion, viewed from northwest - Castillo de San Felipe del Morro, Northwest end of San Juan, San Juan, San Juan Municipio, PR

23. General view of the top gundeck looking northwest from ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

23. General view of the top gundeck looking northwest from Austria Bastion showing ramp down and parapet wall of the Plaza de Armas on lower level - Castillo de San Felipe del Morro, Northwest end of San Juan, San Juan, San Juan Municipio, PR

Model Identification of Integrated ARMA Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stadnytska, Tetiana; Braun, Simone; Werner, Joachim

2008-01-01

This article evaluates the Smallest Canonical Correlation Method (SCAN) and the Extended Sample Autocorrelation Function (ESACF), automated methods for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model selection commonly available in current versions of SAS for Windows, as identification tools for integrated processes. SCAN and ESACF can…

Estimating the Value-at-Risk for some stocks at the capital market in Indonesia based on ARMA-FIGARCH models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Lesmana, E.; Susanti, D.; Napitupulu, H.; Hidayat, Y.

2017-11-01

Value-at-Risk has already become a standard measurement that must be carried out by the financial institution for both internal interest and regulatory. In this paper, the estimation of Value-at-Risk of some stocks with econometric models approach is analyzed. In this research, we assume that the stock return follows the time series model. To do the estimation of mean value we are using ARMA models, while to estimate the variance value we are using FIGARCH models. Furthermore, the mean value estimator and the variance are used to estimate the Value-at-Risk. The result of the analysis shows that from five stock PRUF, BBRI, MPPA, BMRI, and INDF, the Value-at-Risk obtained are 0.01791, 0.06037, 0.02550, 0.06030, and 0.02585 respectively. Since Value-at-Risk represents the maximum risk size of each stock at a 95% level of significance, then it can be taken into consideration in determining the investment policy on stocks.

Shape classification of malignant lymphomas and leukemia by morphological watersheds and ARMA modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celenk, Mehmet; Song, Yinglei; Ma, Limin; Zhou, Min

2003-05-01

A new algorithm that can be used to automatically recognize and classify malignant lymphomas and lukemia is proposed in this paper. The algorithm utilizes the morphological watershed to extract boundaries of cells from their grey-level images. It generates a sequence of Euclidean distances by selecting pixels in clockwise direction on the boundary of the cell and calculating the Euclidean distances of the selected pixels from the centroid of the cell. A feature vector associated with each cell is then obtained by applying the auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model to the generated sequence of Euclidean distances. The clustering measure J3=trace{inverse(Sw-1)Sm} involving the within (Sw) and mixed (Sm) class-scattering matrices is computed for both cell classes to provide an insight into the extent to which different cell classes in the training data are separated. Our test results suggest that the algorithm is highly accurate for the development of an interactive, computer-assisted diagnosis (CAD) tool.

Predicting long-term catchment nutrient export: the use of nonlinear time series models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valent, Peter; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Szolgay, Jan; Komornikova, Magda

2010-05-01

After the Second World War the nitrate concentrations in European water bodies changed significantly as the result of increased nitrogen fertilizer use and changes in land use. However, in the last decades, as a consequence of the implementation of nitrate-reducing measures in Europe, the nitrate concentrations in water bodies slowly decrease. This causes that the mean and variance of the observed time series also changes with time (nonstationarity and heteroscedascity). In order to detect changes and properly describe the behaviour of such time series by time series analysis, linear models (such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)), are no more suitable. Time series with sudden changes in statistical characteristics can cause various problems in the calibration of traditional water quality models and thus give biased predictions. Proper statistical analysis of these non-stationary and heteroscedastic time series with the aim of detecting and subsequently explaining the variations in their statistical characteristics requires the use of nonlinear time series models. This information can be then used to improve the model building and calibration of conceptual water quality model or to select right calibration periods in order to produce reliable predictions. The objective of this contribution is to analyze two long time series of nitrate concentrations of the rivers Ouse and Stour with advanced nonlinear statistical modelling techniques and compare their performance with traditional linear models of the ARMA class in order to identify changes in the time series characteristics. The time series were analysed with nonlinear models with multiple regimes represented by self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and Markov-switching models (MSW). The analysis showed that, based on the value of residual sum of squares (RSS) in both datasets, SETAR and MSW models described the time-series better than models of the ARMA class. In most cases the relative improvement of SETAR models against AR models of first order was low ranging between 1% and 4% with the exception of the three-regime model for the River Stour time-series where the improvement was 48.9%. In comparison, the relative improvement of MSW models was between 44.6% and 52.5 for two-regime and from 60.4% to 75% for three-regime models. However, the visual assessment of models plotted against original datasets showed that despite a high value of RSS, some ARMA models could describe the analyzed time-series better than AR, MA and SETAR models with lower values of RSS. In both datasets MSW models provided a very good visual fit describing most of the extreme values.

INTRODUCTION TO A COMBINED MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND ARMA MODELING APPROACH FOR BEACH BACTERIA PREDICTION

EPA Science Inventory

Due to the complexity of the processes contributing to beach bacteria concentrations, many researchers rely on statistical modeling, among which multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling is most widely used. Despite its ease of use and interpretation, there may be time dependence...

Temas y Problemas del idioma espanol en la prensa: El lenguaje, arma peligrosa (Themes and Problems of the Spanish Language in the Press: Language, a Dangerous Weapon).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Senillosa, Antonio

1979-01-01

Discusses the important role that language has in our society and compares human communication to animal group communication. Gives specific examples of corruption in the Spanish language today. (NCR)

2. Historic American Buildings Survey, Frederik C. Gjessing, Photographer January, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

2. Historic American Buildings Survey, Frederik C. Gjessing, Photographer January, 1956 ELEVATION OF CHAPEL AND SALLY PORT TOWARDS THE COURTYARD PLAZA DE ARMAS, SAN FELIPE DEL MORRO. - Castillo de San Felipe del Morro Sally Port & Chapel, Northwest end of San Juan Island, San Juan, San Juan Municipio, PR

Moving Average Models with Bivariate Exponential and Geometric Distributions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

ordinary time series and of point processes. Developments in Statistics, Vol. 1, P.R. Krishnaiah , ed. Academic Press, New York. [9] Esary, J.D. and...valued and discrete - valued time series with ARMA correlation structure. Multivariate Analysis V, P.R. Krishnaiah , ed. North-Holland. 151-166. [28

Stimulation at Desert Peak -modeling with the coupled THM code FEHM

DOE Data Explorer

kelkar, sharad

2013-04-30

Numerical modeling of the 2011 shear stimulation at the Desert Peak well 27-15. This submission contains the FEHM executable code for a 64-bit PC Windows-7 machine, and the input and output files for the results presented in the included paper from ARMA-213 meeting.

An EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Process Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Taehun

2010-01-01

In this dissertation, an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed and implemented to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and the associated standard error estimates characterizing temporal flows for the latent variable time series following stationary vector ARMA processes, as well as the parameters defining the…

Time-series analysis of delta13C from tree rings. I. Time trends and autocorrelation.

PubMed

Monserud, R A; Marshall, J D

2001-09-01

Univariate time-series analyses were conducted on stable carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree-ring cellulose. We looked for the presence and structure of autocorrelation. Significant autocorrelation violates the statistical independence assumption and biases hypothesis tests. Its presence would indicate the existence of lagged physiological effects that persist for longer than the current year. We analyzed data from 28 trees (60-85 years old; mean = 73 years) of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca) growing in northern Idaho. Material was obtained by the stem analysis method from rings laid down in the upper portion of the crown throughout each tree's life. The sampling protocol minimized variation caused by changing light regimes within each tree. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were used to describe the autocorrelation structure over time. Three time series were analyzed for each tree: the stable carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C); discrimination (delta); and the difference between ambient and internal CO(2) concentrations (c(a) - c(i)). The effect of converting from ring cellulose to whole-leaf tissue did not affect the analysis because it was almost completely removed by the detrending that precedes time-series analysis. A simple linear or quadratic model adequately described the time trend. The residuals from the trend had a constant mean and variance, thus ensuring stationarity, a requirement for autocorrelation analysis. The trend over time for c(a) - c(i) was particularly strong (R(2) = 0.29-0.84). Autoregressive moving average analyses of the residuals from these trends indicated that two-thirds of the individual tree series contained significant autocorrelation, whereas the remaining third were random (white noise) over time. We were unable to distinguish between individuals with and without significant autocorrelation beforehand. Significant ARMA models were all of low order, with either first- or second-order (i.e., lagged 1 or 2 years, respectively) models performing well. A simple autoregressive (AR(1)), model was the most common. The most useful generalization was that the same ARMA model holds for each of the three series (delta(13)C, delta, c(a) - c(i)) for an individual tree, if the time trend has been properly removed for each series. The mean series for the two pine species were described by first-order ARMA models (1-year lags), whereas the Douglas-fir mean series were described by second-order models (2-year lags) with negligible first-order effects. Apparently, the process of constructing a mean time series for a species preserves an underlying signal related to delta(13)C while canceling some of the random individual tree variation. Furthermore, the best model for the overall mean series (e.g., for a species) cannot be inferred from a consensus of the individual tree model forms, nor can its parameters be estimated reliably from the mean of the individual tree parameters. Because two-thirds of the individual tree time series contained significant autocorrelation, the normal assumption of a random structure over time is unwarranted, even after accounting for the time trend. The residuals of an appropriate ARMA model satisfy the independence assumption, and can be used to make hypothesis tests.

The Fog of Peace: Planning and Executing The Restoration of Panama

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-04-15

posean armas Ilegalus., CONSTITUCION Y LAS LEVES DE lO0limpleard Ia fuerza sdlo cuando sea necesarlo y cl mifnmtoPANAMA, ~~~ti ENDFNS ELA( ucrz.a...rcqucrldw, hacienda uso tic lit ftierm. mortal PANAM , ENDEFESA D LA nlcarriente coini ultima rcuurso. DEMOCRACIA Oath Commandments 99 APPENDIX G U.S

Soviet Negotiating Techniques in Arms Control Negotiations with the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-08-01

Arma - ments and the Prohibition of Atomic, Hydrogen and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction. 󈧰 The disarmament debate then centered in twenty- eight...example, on the problem of the Mideast and on other outstanding problems in which the United States and the Soviet Union, acting together, canJ serve the

Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements minus seasonal trends).more » The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system con guration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. As a result, requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated.« less

Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

DOE PAGES

Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

2016-11-25

Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements minus seasonal trends).more » The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system con guration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. As a result, requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated.« less

Medical Mondays: ED Utilization for Medicaid Recipients Depends on the Day of the Week, Season, and Holidays.

PubMed

Castner, Jessica; Yin, Yong; Loomis, Dianne; Hewner, Sharon

2016-07-01

The purpose of this study is to describe and explain the temporal and seasonal trends in ED utilization for a low-income population. A retrospective analysis of 66,487 ED Medicaid-insured health care claims in 2009 was conducted for 2 Western New York Counties using time-series analysis with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. The final ARMA (2,0) model indicated an autoregressive structure with up to a 2-day lag. ED volume is lower on weekends than on weekdays, and the highest volumes are on Mondays. Summer and fall seasons demonstrated higher volumes, whereas lower volume outliers were associated with holidays. Day of the week was an influential predictor of ED utilization in low-income persons. Season and holidays are also predictors of ED utilization. These calendar-based patterns support the need for ongoing and future emergency leaders' collaborations in community-based care system redesign to meet the health care access needs of low-income persons. Copyright © 2016 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stock price forecasting based on time series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Wan Le

2018-05-01

Using the historical stock price data to set up a sequence model to explain the intrinsic relationship of data, the future stock price can forecasted. The used models are auto-regressive model, moving-average model and autoregressive-movingaverage model. The original data sequence of unit root test was used to judge whether the original data sequence was stationary. The non-stationary original sequence as a first order difference needed further processing. Then the stability of the sequence difference was re-inspected. If it is still non-stationary, the second order differential processing of the sequence is carried out. Autocorrelation diagram and partial correlation diagram were used to evaluate the parameters of the identified ARMA model, including coefficients of the model and model order. Finally, the model was used to forecast the fitting of the shanghai composite index daily closing price with precision. Results showed that the non-stationary original data series was stationary after the second order difference. The forecast value of shanghai composite index daily closing price was closer to actual value, indicating that the ARMA model in the paper was a certain accuracy.

Autoregressive-moving-average hidden Markov model for vision-based fall prediction-An application for walker robot.

PubMed

Taghvaei, Sajjad; Jahanandish, Mohammad Hasan; Kosuge, Kazuhiro

2017-01-01

Population aging of the societies requires providing the elderly with safe and dependable assistive technologies in daily life activities. Improving the fall detection algorithms can play a major role in achieving this goal. This article proposes a real-time fall prediction algorithm based on the acquired visual data of a user with walking assistive system from a depth sensor. In the lack of a coupled dynamic model of the human and the assistive walker a hybrid "system identification-machine learning" approach is used. An autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model is fitted on the time-series walking data to forecast the upcoming states, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based classifier is built on the top of the ARMA model to predict falling in the upcoming time frames. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through experiments with four subjects including an experienced physiotherapist while using a walker robot in five different falling scenarios; namely, fall forward, fall down, fall back, fall left, and fall right. The algorithm successfully predicts the fall with a rate of 84.72%.

Parametric adaptive filtering and data validation in the bar GW detector AURIGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortolan, A.; Baggio, L.; Cerdonio, M.; Prodi, G. A.; Vedovato, G.; Vitale, S.

2002-04-01

We report on our experience gained in the signal processing of the resonant GW detector AURIGA. Signal amplitude and arrival time are estimated by means of a matched-adaptive Wiener filter. The detector noise, entering in the filter set-up, is modelled as a parametric ARMA process; to account for slow non-stationarity of the noise, the ARMA parameters are estimated on an hourly basis. A requirement of the set-up of an unbiased Wiener filter is the separation of time spans with 'almost Gaussian' noise from non-Gaussian and/or strongly non-stationary time spans. The separation algorithm consists basically of a variance estimate with the Chauvenet convergence method and a threshold on the Curtosis index. The subsequent validation of data is strictly connected with the separation procedure: in fact, by injecting a large number of artificial GW signals into the 'almost Gaussian' part of the AURIGA data stream, we have demonstrated that the effective probability distributions of the signal-to-noise ratio χ2 and the time of arrival are those that are expected.

Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search: Motivation & Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caceres, Gabriel; Feigelson, Eric; Jogesh Babu, G.; Bahamonde, Natalia; Bertin, Karine; Christen, Alejandra; Curé, Michel; Meza, Cristian

2015-08-01

The Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS) project uses statistical methodology associated with autoregressive (AR) processes to model Kepler lightcurves in order to improve exoplanet transit detection in systems with high stellar variability. We also introduce a planet-search algorithm to detect transits in time-series residuals after application of the AR models. One of the main obstacles in detecting faint planetary transits is the intrinsic stellar variability of the host star. The variability displayed by many stars may have autoregressive properties, wherein later flux values are correlated with previous ones in some manner. Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models, Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and related models are flexible, phenomenological methods used with great success to model stochastic temporal behaviors in many fields of study, particularly econometrics. Powerful statistical methods are implemented in the public statistical software environment R and its many packages. Modeling involves maximum likelihood fitting, model selection, and residual analysis. These techniques provide a useful framework to model stellar variability and are used in KARPS with the objective of reducing stellar noise to enhance opportunities to find as-yet-undiscovered planets. Our analysis procedure consisting of three steps: pre-processing of the data to remove discontinuities, gaps and outliers; ARMA-type model selection and fitting; and transit signal search of the residuals using a new Transit Comb Filter (TCF) that replaces traditional box-finding algorithms. We apply the procedures to simulated Kepler-like time series with known stellar and planetary signals to evaluate the effectiveness of the KARPS procedures. The ARMA-type modeling is effective at reducing stellar noise, but also reduces and transforms the transit signal into ingress/egress spikes. A periodogram based on the TCF is constructed to concentrate the signal of these periodic spikes. When a periodic transit is found, the model is displayed on a standard period-folded averaged light curve. We also illustrate the efficient coding in R.

MALDI-TOF MS as a Tool To Detect a Nosocomial Outbreak of Extended-Spectrum-β-Lactamase- and ArmA Methyltransferase-Producing Enterobacter cloacae Clinical Isolates in Algeria

PubMed Central

Khennouchi, Nour Chems el Houda; Loucif, Lotfi; Boutefnouchet, Nafissa; Allag, Hamoudi

2015-01-01

Enterobacter cloacae is among the most important pathogens responsible for nosocomial infections and outbreaks. In this study, 77 Enterobacter isolates were collected: 27 isolates from Algerian hospitals (in Constantine, Annaba, and Skikda) and 50 isolates from Marseille, France. All strains were identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization–time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed by the disk diffusion method. PCR was used to detect extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase (ESBL)-encoding, fluoroquinolone resistance-encoding, and aminoglycoside-modifying enzyme (AME) genes. Epidemiological typing was performed using MALDI-TOF MS with data mining approaches, along with multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Sixty-eight isolates (27 from Algeria, 41 from Marseille) were identified by MALDI-TOF MS as E. cloacae. Resistance to antibiotics in the Algerian isolates was significantly higher than that in the strains from Marseille, especially for beta-lactams and aminoglycosides. Eighteen of the 27 Algerian isolates and 11 of the 41 Marseille isolates possessed at least one ESBL-encoding gene: blaCTX-M and/or blaTEM. AME genes were detected in 20 of the 27 Algerian isolates and 8 of the 41 Marseille isolates [ant(2″)-Ia, aac(6′)-Ib-cr, aadA1, aadA2, and armA]. Conjugation experiments showed that armA was carried on a transferable plasmid. MALDI-TOF typing showed three separate clusters according to the geographical distribution and species level. An MLST-based phylogenetic tree showed a clade of 14 E. cloacae isolates from a urology unit clustering together in the MALDI-TOF dendrogram, suggesting the occurrence of an outbreak in this unit. In conclusion, the ability of MALDI-TOF to biotype strains was confirmed, and surveillance measures should be implemented, especially for Algerian patients hospitalized in France. PMID:26239991

Prevalence of 16S rRNA methylase genes among β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates in Saudi Arabia

PubMed Central

Al Sheikh, Yazeed A.; Marie, Mohammed Ali M.; John, James; Krishnappa, Lakshmana Gowda; Dabwab, Khaled Homoud M.

2014-01-01

Background Co production of 16S rRNA methylases gene and β-Lactamase gene among Enterobacteriaceae isolates conferring resistance to both therapeutic options has serious implications for clinicians worldwide. Methods To study co existence of 16S rRNA methylases (armA, rmtA, rmtB, rmtC, rmtD, and npmA) and β-Lactamase (blaTEM-1, blaSHV-12, blaCTX-M-14) genes, we screened all phenotypic positive β-Lactamase producing enterobacteriaceae by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting above genes. A total of 330 enterobacteriaceae strains were collected during study period out of that 218 isolates were identified phenotypically as β-Lactamase producers, which include 50 (22.9%) Escherichia coli; 92 (42.2%) Klebsiella pneumoniae, 44 (20.2%), Citrobactor freundii and 32 (14.7%) Enterobacter spp. Results Among this 218, only 188 isolates harbored the resistant gene for β-Lactamase production. Major β-Lactamase producing isolates were bla TEM-1 type. 122 (56 %) isolates were found to produce any one of the 16S rRNA methylase genes. A total of 116 isolates co produced β-Lactamase and at least one 16S rRNA methylases gene Co production of armA gene was found in 26 isolates with rmtB and in 4 isolates with rmtC. The rmtA and rmtD genes were not detected in any of the tested isolates. Six isolates were positive for a 16S rRNA methylase gene alone. Conclusion β-Lactamase producing isolates appears to coexist with 16S rRNA methylase predominantly armA and rmtB genes in the same isolate. We conclude the major β-Lactamase and 16S rRNA methylases co-producer was K. pneumoniae followed by E. coli. We suggest further work on evaluating other β-lactamases types and novel antibiotic resistance mechanisms among Enterobacteriaceae. PMID:25005152

Space weather effects measured in atmospheric radiation on aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. K.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Judge, K.; Wieman, S. R.; Atwell, W.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Bell, L. D.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Wiley, S.; Teets, E.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Jones, J. B. L.; Crowley, G.; Azeem, S. I.; Halford, A. J.

2016-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the domains that are affected by space weather, the coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, the magnetosphere, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect humans and our technology as a result of radiation exposure. Since 2013 Space Environment Technologies (SET) has been conducting observations of the atmospheric radiation environment at aviation altitudes using a small fleet of six instruments. The objective of this work is to improve radiation risk management in air traffic operations. Under the auspices of the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) and Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX) projects our team is making dose rate measurements on multiple aircraft flying global routes. Over 174 ARMAS and USEWX flights have successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the radiation environment resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), Solar Energetic Protons (SEPs), and outer radiation belt energetic electrons. The real-time radiation exposure is measured as an absorbed dose rate in silicon and then computed as an ambient dose equivalent rate for reporting dose relevant to radiative-sensitive organs and tissue in units of microsieverts per hour. ARMAS total ionizing absorbed dose is captured on the aircraft, downlinked in real-time, processed on the ground into ambient dose equivalent rates, compared with NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC) most recent Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) global radiation climatology model runs, and then made available to end users. Dose rates from flight altitudes up to 56,700 ft. are shown for flights across the planet under a variety of space weather conditions. We discuss several space weather effects on the atmospheric radiation environment, including the levels of GCR background radiation, small SEP events, and possible EMIC wave driven energetic electrons from the outer radiation belt creating "radiation" clouds in the troposphere.

Spread of ISCR1 Elements Containing blaDHA-1 and Multiple Antimicrobial Resistance Genes Leading to Increase of Flomoxef Resistance in Extended-Spectrum-β-Lactamase-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae▿

PubMed Central

Lee, Chen-Hsiang; Liu, Jien-Wei; Li, Chia-Chin; Chien, Chun-Chih; Tang, Ya-Fen; Su, Lin-Hui

2011-01-01

Increasing resistance to quinolones, aminoglycosides, and/or cephamycins in extended-spectrum-β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae exacerbates the already limited antibiotic treatment options for infections due to these microbes. In this study, the presence of resistance determinants for these antimicrobial agents was examined by PCR among ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-KP) isolates that caused bacteremia. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis was used to differentiate the clonal relationship among the isolates studied. Transferability and the location of the resistance genes were analyzed by conjugation experiments, followed by DNA-DNA hybridization. Among the 94 ESBL-KP isolates studied, 20 isolates of flomoxef-resistant ESBL-KP were identified. They all carried a DHA-1 gene and were genetically diverse. CTX-M genes were found in 18 of the isolates. Among these DHA-1/CTX-M-producing K. pneumoniae isolates, ISCR1 was detected in 13 (72%) isolates, qnr genes (1 qnrA and 17 qnrB genes) were detected in 18 (100%), aac(6′)-Ib-cr was detected in 11 (61%), and 16S rRNA methylase (all armA genes) was detected in 14 (78%). Four transconjugants were available for further analysis, and qnrB4, aac(6′)-Ib-cr, armA, and blaDHA-1 were all identified on these self-transferable blaCTX-M-carrying plasmids. The genetic environments of ISCR1 associated with armA, blaDHA-1, and qnrB4 genes in the four transconjugants were identical. Replicon-type analysis revealed a FIIA plasmid among the four self-transferable plasmids, although the other three were nontypeable. The cotransfer of multiple resistance genes with the ISCR1 element-carrying plasmids has a clinical impact and warrants close monitoring and further study. PMID:21746945

Outbreak of Serratia marcescens Coproducing ArmA and CTX-M-15 Mediated High Levels of Resistance to Aminoglycoside and Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamases, Algeria.

PubMed

Batah, Rima; Loucif, Lotfi; Olaitan, Abiola Olumuyiwa; Boutefnouchet, Nafissa; Allag, Hamoudi; Rolain, Jean-Marc

2015-08-01

Serratia marcescens is one of the most important pathogens responsible for nosocomial infections worldwide. Here, we have investigated the molecular support of antibiotic resistance and genetic relationships in a series of 54 S. marcescens clinical isolates collected from Eastern Algeria between December 2011 and July 2013. The 54 isolates were identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS). Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed by disc diffusion and E-test methods. Antibiotic resistance genes were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The genetic transfer of antibiotic resistance was performed by conjugation using azide-resistant Escherichia coli J53 as the recipient strain, and plasmid analysis was done by PCR-based replicon typing. The relatedness of our isolates was determined by phylogenetic analysis based on partial sequences of four protein-encoding genes (gyrB, rpoB, infB, and atpD) and then compared to MALDI-TOF MS clustering. Thirty-five out of 54 isolates yielded an extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) phenotype and carried bla(CTX-M-15) (n=32), bla(TEM-1) (n=26), bla(TEM-71) (n=1), bla(SHV-1a) (n=1), and bla(PER-2) (n=12). Among these isolates, we identified a cluster of 15 isolates from a urology unit that coharbored ESBL and the 16S rRNA methyltransferase armA. Conjugation was successful for five selected strains, demonstrating the transferability of a conjugative plasmid of incompatibility group incL/M type. Phylogenetic analysis along with MALDI-TOF clustering likely suggested an outbreak of such isolates in the urology unit. In this study, we report for the first time the co-occurrence of armA methyltransferase with ESBL in S. marcescens clinical isolates in Eastern Algeria.

The Latent Curve ARMA (P, Q) Panel Model: Longitudinal Data Analysis in Educational Research and Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao

2008-01-01

Autocorrelated residuals in longitudinal data are widely reported as common to longitudinal data. Yet few, if any, researchers modeling growth processes evaluate a priori whether their data have this feature. Sivo, Fan, and Witta (2005) found that not modeling autocorrelated residuals present in longitudinal data severely biases latent curve…

The Biasing Effects of Unmodeled ARMA Time Series Processes on Latent Growth Curve Model Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao; Witta, Lea

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of estimated growth curve models when there is stationary autocorrelation among manifest variable errors. The results suggest that when, in practice, growth curve models are fitted to longitudinal data, alternative rival hypotheses to consider would include growth models that also specify…

United States Military Posture for FY 1979. Statement by General George S. Brown, USAF Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, to the Congress.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-01-20

adopting new short- range, visually aimed weapons as secondary arma - FOXBAT ment on many of their deployed interceptors. These weapons should enhance...i egrtedwit letal eapns. EW threat, and provide practice in tactics and:1weapon system, integrated with lethal weapons. equipment operations

Virtual Reality Transfer Protocol (VRTP): Implementing a Monitor Application for the Real-Time Transport Protocol (RTP) Using the JAVA Media Framework (JMF)

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-01

application, a complete specification will require one or more companion documents, as follows. 1. Profile Specification Documents A Profile...Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil 21. Diretoria de Sistemas de Armas da Marinha Rua Primeiro de Marco, 118 Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil CEP 20010 22

Defense Applications of Signal Processing

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-08-27

class of multiscale autoregressive moving average (MARMA) processes. These are generalisations of ARMA models in time series analysis , and they contain...including the two theoretical sinusoidal components. Analysis of the amplitude and frequency time series provided some novel insight into the real...communication channels, underwater acoustic signals, radar systems , economic time series and biomedical signals [7]. The alpha stable (aS) distribution has

Robust Semi-Active Ride Control under Stochastic Excitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

broad classes of time-series models which are of practical importance; the Auto-Regressive (AR) models, the Integrated (I) models, and the Moving...Average (MA) models [12]. Combinations of these models result in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average...Down Up 4) Down Down These four cases can be written in compact form as: (20) Where is the Heaviside

Damage localization of marine risers using time series of vibration signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hao; Yang, Hezhen; Liu, Fushun

2014-10-01

Based on dynamic response signals a damage detection algorithm is developed for marine risers. Damage detection methods based on numerous modal properties have encountered issues in the researches in offshore oil community. For example, significant increase in structure mass due to marine plant/animal growth and changes in modal properties by equipment noise are not the result of damage for riser structures. In an attempt to eliminate the need to determine modal parameters, a data-based method is developed. The implementation of the method requires that vibration data are first standardized to remove the influence of different loading conditions and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used to fit vibration response signals. In addition, a damage feature factor is introduced based on the autoregressive (AR) parameters. After that, the Euclidean distance between ARMA models is subtracted as a damage indicator for damage detection and localization and a top tensioned riser simulation model with different damage scenarios is analyzed using the proposed method with dynamic acceleration responses of a marine riser as sensor data. Finally, the influence of measured noise is analyzed. According to the damage localization results, the proposed method provides accurate damage locations of risers and is robust to overcome noise effect.

A univariate model of river water nitrate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worrall, F.; Burt, T. P.

1999-01-01

Four time series were taken from three catchments in the North and South of England. The sites chosen included two in predominantly agricultural catchments, one at the tidal limit and one downstream of a sewage treatment works. A time series model was constructed for each of these series as a means of decomposing the elements controlling river water nitrate concentrations and to assess whether this approach could provide a simple management tool for protecting water abstractions. Autoregressive (AR) modelling of the detrended and deseasoned time series showed a "memory effect". This memory effect expressed itself as an increase in the winter-summer difference in nitrate levels that was dependent upon the nitrate concentration 12 or 6 months previously. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modelling showed that one of the series contained seasonal, non-stationary elements that appeared as an increasing trend in the winter-summer difference. The ARMA model was used to predict nitrate levels and predictions were tested against data held back from the model construction process - predictions gave average percentage errors of less than 10%. Empirical modelling can therefore provide a simple, efficient method for constructing management models for downstream water abstraction.

Analysis on the adaptive countermeasures to ecological management under changing environment in the Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Luochen; Chen, Xinfang; Chi, Yixia

2017-12-01

This article aims to explore the adaptive utilization strategies of flow regime versus traditional practices in the context of climate change and human activities in the arid area. The study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the Budyko method and adaptive utilization strategies to eco-hydrological regime by comparing the applicability between autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) model and combined regression model. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in streamflow deduction in the mainstream with contribution of 120.7%~190.1%. While in the headstreams, climatic variables were the primary determinant of streamflow by 56.5~152.6% of the increase. The comparison revealed that combined regression model performed better than ARMA model with the qualified rate of 80.49~90.24%. Based on the forecasts of streamflow for different purposes, the adaptive utilization scheme of water flow is established from the perspective of time and space. Our study presents an effective water resources scheduling scheme for the ecological environment and provides references for ecological protection and water allocation in the arid area.

Modeling Polio Data Using the First Order Non-Negative Integer-Valued Autoregressive, INAR(1), Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vazifedan, Turaj; Shitan, Mahendran

Time series data may consists of counts, such as the number of road accidents, the number of patients in a certain hospital, the number of customers waiting for service at a certain time and etc. When the value of the observations are large it is usual to use Gaussian Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process to model the time series. However if the observed counts are small, it is not appropriate to use ARMA process to model the observed phenomenon. In such cases we need to model the time series data by using Non-Negative Integer valued Autoregressive (INAR) process. The modeling of counts data is based on the binomial thinning operator. In this paper we illustrate the modeling of counts data using the monthly number of Poliomyelitis data in United States between January 1970 until December 1983. We applied the AR(1), Poisson regression model and INAR(1) model and the suitability of these models were assessed by using the Index of Agreement(I.A.). We found that INAR(1) model is more appropriate in the sense it had a better I.A. and it is natural since the data are counts.

West Europe Report No. 2139

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-09

Ap-PDP, 2; UCD, 1. Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Voters: 438,618. Seats: 30 (Tenerife, 15; La Palma, 8; Gomera, 4 and Hierro , 3). Deputies 28 October 1982...Canaries, have aroused the interest of independent groups that normally operate on the peripheral islands, such as Gomera and Hierro . 113 During the...Independent Gomera Electoral Group: Esteban Bethencourt. Hierro : PSOE: Jose Francisco Armas. AP-PDP-UL: Manuel Fernandez Gonzalez. PCE: Aurelio Ayala

Ecology of the Scorpion, Microtityus jaumei in Sierra de Canasta, Cuba

PubMed Central

Cala-Riquelme, Franklyn; Colombo, Marco

2011-01-01

An assessment of the population dynamics of Microtityus jaumei Armas (Scorpiones: Buthidae) on the slopes south of Sierra de Canasta, Guantánamo Province, Cuba show an increase in activity over the year (≤ 0.05). The activity peak is related to the reproductive period from June to November. The abundance of scorpions was significantly related to density of the canopy and thickness of the substrate. PMID:21870972

Ecology of the scorpion, Microtityus jaumei in Sierra de Canasta, Cuba.

PubMed

Cala-Riquelme, Franklyn; Colombo, Marco

2011-01-01

An assessment of the population dynamics of Microtityus jaumei Armas (Scorpiones: Buthidae) on the slopes south of Sierra de Canasta, Guantánamo Province, Cuba show an increase in activity over the year (≤ 0.05). The activity peak is related to the reproductive period from June to November. The abundance of scorpions was significantly related to density of the canopy and thickness of the substrate.

Neural net forecasting for geomagnetic activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hernandez, J. V.; Tajima, T.; Horton, W.

1993-01-01

We use neural nets to construct nonlinear models to forecast the AL index given solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data. We follow two approaches: (1) the state space reconstruction approach, which is a nonlinear generalization of autoregressive-moving average models (ARMA) and (2) the nonlinear filter approach, which reduces to a moving average model (MA) in the linear limit. The database used here is that of Bargatze et al. (1985).

Secular Stellar Dynamics near a Massive Black Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madigan, Ann-Marie; Hopman, Clovis; Levin, Yuri

2011-09-01

The angular momentum evolution of stars close to massive black holes (MBHs) is driven by secular torques. In contrast to two-body relaxation, where interactions between stars are incoherent, the resulting resonant relaxation (RR) process is characterized by coherence times of hundreds of orbital periods. In this paper, we show that all the statistical properties of RR can be reproduced in an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. We use the ARMA model, calibrated with extensive N-body simulations, to analyze the long-term evolution of stellar systems around MBHs with Monte Carlo simulations. We show that for a single-mass system in steady state, a depression is carved out near an MBH as a result of tidal disruptions. Using Galactic center parameters, the extent of the depression is about 0.1 pc, of similar order to but less than the size of the observed "hole" in the distribution of bright late-type stars. We also find that the velocity vectors of stars around an MBH are locally not isotropic. In a second application, we evolve the highly eccentric orbits that result from the tidal disruption of binary stars, which are considered to be plausible precursors of the "S-stars" in the Galactic center. We find that RR predicts more highly eccentric (e > 0.9) S-star orbits than have been observed to date.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

A stochastic approach to noise modeling for barometric altimeters.

PubMed

Sabatini, Angelo Maria; Genovese, Vincenzo

2013-11-18

The question whether barometric altimeters can be applied to accurately track human motions is still debated, since their measurement performance are rather poor due to either coarse resolution or drifting behavior problems. As a step toward accurate short-time tracking of changes in height (up to few minutes), we develop a stochastic model that attempts to capture some statistical properties of the barometric altimeter noise. The barometric altimeter noise is decomposed in three components with different physical origin and properties: a deterministic time-varying mean, mainly correlated with global environment changes, and a first-order Gauss-Markov (GM) random process, mainly accounting for short-term, local environment changes, the effects of which are prominent, respectively, for long-time and short-time motion tracking; an uncorrelated random process, mainly due to wideband electronic noise, including quantization noise. Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) system identification techniques are used to capture the correlation structure of the piecewise stationary GM component, and to estimate its standard deviation, together with the standard deviation of the uncorrelated component. M-point moving average filters used alone or in combination with whitening filters learnt from ARMA model parameters are further tested in few dynamic motion experiments and discussed for their capability of short-time tracking small-amplitude, low-frequency motions.

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia: time domain characterization using autoregressive moving average analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Triedman, J. K.; Perrott, M. H.; Cohen, R. J.; Saul, J. P.

1995-01-01

Fourier-based techniques are mathematically noncausal and are therefore limited in their application to feedback-containing systems, such as the cardiovascular system. In this study, a mathematically causal time domain technique, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) analysis, was used to parameterize the relations of respiration and arterial blood pressure to heart rate in eight humans before and during total cardiac autonomic blockade. Impulse-response curves thus generated showed the relation of respiration to heart rate to be characterized by an immediate increase in heart rate of 9.1 +/- 1.8 beats.min-1.l-1, followed by a transient mild decrease in heart rate to -1.2 +/- 0.5 beats.min-1.l-1 below baseline. The relation of blood pressure to heart rate was characterized by a slower decrease in heart rate of -0.5 +/- 0.1 beats.min-1.mmHg-1, followed by a gradual return to baseline. Both of these relations nearly disappeared after autonomic blockade, indicating autonomic mediation. Maximum values obtained from the respiration to heart rate impulse responses were also well correlated with frequency domain measures of high-frequency "vagal" heart rate control (r = 0.88). ARMA analysis may be useful as a time domain representation of autonomic heart rate control for cardiovascular modeling.

Distributed Peer-to-Peer Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Xue; Wang, Sheng; Bi, Dao-Wei; Ma, Jun-Jie

2007-01-01

Target tracking is usually a challenging application for wireless sensor networks (WSNs) because it is always computation-intensive and requires real-time processing. This paper proposes a practical target tracking system based on the auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model in a distributed peer-to-peer (P2P) signal processing framework. In the proposed framework, wireless sensor nodes act as peers that perform target detection, feature extraction, classification and tracking, whereas target localization requires the collaboration between wireless sensor nodes for improving the accuracy and robustness. For carrying out target tracking under the constraints imposed by the limited capabilities of the wireless sensor nodes, some practically feasible algorithms, such as the ARMA model and the 2-D integer lifting wavelet transform, are adopted in single wireless sensor nodes due to their outstanding performance and light computational burden. Furthermore, a progressive multi-view localization algorithm is proposed in distributed P2P signal processing framework considering the tradeoff between the accuracy and energy consumption. Finally, a real world target tracking experiment is illustrated. Results from experimental implementations have demonstrated that the proposed target tracking system based on a distributed P2P signal processing framework can make efficient use of scarce energy and communication resources and achieve target tracking successfully.

A new species of Piaroa (Schizomida: Hubbardiidae) from Venezuela, with taxonomic notes on the genus.

PubMed

M, Osvaldo Villarreal; De Armas, Luis F; García, Luis Fernando

2014-02-19

A new species belonging to the schizomid genus Piaroa Villarreal, Giupponi and Tourinho, 2008 is described from north-western Venezuela. A complementary description of Piaroa guipongai Villarreal and Garcia, 2012 is provided including SEM pictures of relevant structures of both sexes. A key for males of Piaroa and Colombiazomus Armas and Delgado-Santa, 2012 is included. The presence of Dm3 setae on Hubbardiidae is discussed.

Spectral Estimation: An Overdetermined Rational Model Equation Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-15

A-A123 122 SPECTRAL ESTIMATION: AN OVERDETERMINEO RATIONAL MODEL 1/2 EQUATION APPROACH..(U) ARIZONA STATE UNIV TEMPE DEPT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER...2 0 447,_______ 4. TITLE (mAd Sabile) S. TYPE or REPORT a PEP40D COVERED Spectral Estimation; An Overdeteruined Rational Final Report 9/3 D/8 to...andmmd&t, by uwek 7a5 4 Rational Spectral Estimation, ARMA mo~Ie1, AR model, NMA Mdle, Spectrum, Singular Value Decomposition. Adaptivb Implementatlan

Department of Defense Manpower Requirements Report FY 1995

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-01

lm& INYI 94 III aIII$• ~ BY 9 SUBMI Sam 1 mm I Em 1 am m I am- ITv too a" mT amsITTm aSM . cm 10 ARMA 31 a 21 137 M1 st 1 33 157 179 to I to Ha3 201 am...determined by the DoD Retirement Board of Actuaries . This Board of Actuaries also determines an amortization schedule for the transfer of funds from the

Journal of the School of Naval Warfare (Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

at the service of fair normativism resulting from transcending values or the law." Sec MORE1RA, Adriano. Teoria das Relacoes lntctnacionais...MOREIRA, Adriano. Teoria das Relacoes Internacionais. Coimbra: Almcdina, 2002. SOARES, Joao Clcmcntc Baena. As Nacoes Unidas Diante das Ameacas, dos...of Corvette"BARROSO"at the Diretoria de Sistema de Armas da Marinha (NavyWeapons Syatems Department). He was also posted as Officer in the first crew

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

AllamehZadeh, Mostafa, E-mail: dibaparima@yahoo.com

A Quadratic Neural Networks (QNNs) model has been developed for identifying seismic source classification problem at regional distances using ARMA coefficients determination by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). We have devised a supervised neural system to discriminate between earthquakes and chemical explosions with filter coefficients obtained by windowed P-wave phase spectra (15 s). First, we preprocess the recording's signals to cancel out instrumental and attenuation site effects and obtain a compact representation of seismic records. Second, we use a QNNs system to obtain ARMA coefficients for feature extraction in the discrimination problem. The derived coefficients are then applied to the neuralmore » system to train and classification. In this study, we explore the possibility of using single station three-component (3C) covariance matrix traces from a priori-known explosion sites (learning) for automatically recognizing subsequent explosions from the same site. The results have shown that this feature extraction gives the best classifier for seismic signals and performs significantly better than other classification methods. The events have been tested, which include 36 chemical explosions at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan and 61 earthquakes (mb = 5.0-6.5) recorded by the Iranian National Seismic Network (INSN). The 100% correct decisions were obtained between site explosions and some of non-site events. The above approach to event discrimination is very flexible as we can combine several 3C stations.« less

Robust Control of Multivariable and Large Scale Systems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-03-14

AD-A175 $5B ROBUST CONTROL OF MULTIVRRIALE AND LARG SCALE SYSTEMS V2 R75 (U) HONEYWELL SYSTEMS AND RESEARCH CENTER MINNEAPOLIS MN J C DOYLE ET AL...ONIJQ 86 R alFS ja ,.AMIECFOEPF:ORMING ORGANIZATION So OFFICE SYMBOL 7a NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATI ON jonevwell Systems & Research If 4000c" Air...Force Office of Scientific Research .~ C :AE S C.rv. Stare arma ZIP Code) 7C ADDRESS (Crty. Stare. am ZIP Code, *3660 Marshall Street NE Building 410

Globalization and FARC

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

through the National Security Doctrine, the ALCA (Area de Libre Comercio de las Americas, The Free Trade Area of the Americas) is, the Plan Colombia...of books such as El Mossad and Las Armas Secretas de la Cía). Other sources like El Universal of Mexico (30-OCT- 03), have stated that Al Qaeda has...María Edith Bordón”, Sandra Quiñónez, prosecutor of the Counter Kidnapping Unit said in El Tiempo newspaper. Bordón was kidnapped on September 21

Eigenvalue Tests and Distributions for Small Sample Order Determination for Complex Wishart Matrices

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-13

theoretic order determination criteria for ARMA(p, q) models can be expressed in the form of equation 4.2. The word ARIMA should not be a distractor...subjectivity is not necessarily bad. It enables us to build tractable models and efficiently achieve reasonable results. The charge of "subjectivity" lodged...signal processing studies because it simplifies the mathematics involved and it is not a bad model for a wide range of situations. Wooding [293] is

A Regional Analysis of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons And Meteorology of The Rural Southeast United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

Zt is an ARIMA time series. This is a typical regression model , except that it allows for autocorrelation in the error term Z. In this work, an ARMA...data=folder; var residual; run; II Statistical output of 1992 regression model on 1993 ozone data ARIMA Procedure Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approx...at each of the sites, and to show the effect of synoptic meteorology on high ozone by examining NOAA daily weather maps and climatic data

Archival Evaluation of Floodwall Alignments: New Orleans, Louisiana.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-11-15

Pedesclaux, 9/9/1797, 5/2/1805. 7. Act lost. See P. Pedesclaux 9/9/1797. 3 arpents. 8. Etienne de Vaugine de Nieuamor to Jacinto Panis, J. B. Garic 8/2...1779. 9. See M. de Armas, 5/27/1818. 10. Joseph Verloin DeGruy to Santiago Livaudais, Andres Almonaster, 10/26/1776. 11. Madame Panis to John N...adds a new owner to the chain of title. Act of Sale, 12/21/1763. 11. N. Broutin 9/6/1810. Ursuline Nuns to Joseph De Ville

Variational Theory of Motion of Curved, Twisted and Extensible Elastic Rods

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-18

nonlinear theory such as questions of existence of solutions and global behavior have been carried out by Antman (1976). His basic work entitled "The...Aerosp. Ens. Q017/018 16 REFERENCES Antman , S.S., "Ordinary Differential Equations of Non-Linear ElastIcity 1: Foundatious of the Theories of Non-Linearly...Elutic rods and Shells," A.R.M.A. 61 (1976), 307-351. Antman , S.S., "The Theory of Rods", Handbuch der Physik, Vol. Vla/2, Springer-Verlq, Berlin

Prevalence of carbapenemases among high-level aminoglycoside-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii isolates in a university hospital in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanhong; Shen, Min; Yang, Jingni; Dai, Min; Chang, Yaowen; Zhang, Chi; Luan, Guangxin; Ling, Baodong; Jia, Xu

2016-01-01

The prevalence of aminoglycoside resistant enzymes has previously been reported and extended-spectrum β-lactamase among Acinetobacter baumannii. To track the risk of multidrug-resistant A. baumannii, the present study aimed to determine the prevalence of carbapenemases in high-level aminoglycoside resistant A. baumannii over two years. A total of 118 strains of A. baumannii were consecutively collected in the First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, China. These isolates were investigated on the genetic basis of their resistance to aminoglycosides. The results showed that 75 (63.56%) isolates were high-level resistant to aminoglycosides, including gentamicin and amikacin (minimum inhibitory concentration, ≥256 µg/ml). Aminoglycoside-resistant genes ant(2″)-Ia, aac(6′)-Ib, aph(3′)-Ia, aac(3)-Ia, aac(3)-IIa, armA, rmtA, rmtB, rmtC, rmtD, rmtE, rmtF, rmtG, rmtH and npmA, and carbapenem-resistant genes blaOXA-23, blaOXA-24, blaOXA-51, blaOXA-58, blaSIM, blaIMP, blaNDM-1 and blaKPC, were analyzed using polymerase chain reaction. The positive rate of ant(2″)-Ia, aac(6′)-Ib, aph(3′)-Ia, aac(3)-Ia and aac(3)-IIa was 66.95, 69.49, 42.37, 39.83 and 14.41%, respectively. armA was present in 72.0% (54/75) of A. baumannii isolates with high-level resistance to aminoglycosides. The remaining nine 16S ribosomal RNA methlyase genes (rmtA, rmtB, rmtC, rmtD, rmtE, rmtF, rmtG, rmtH and npmA) and aminoglycoside-modifying enzyme gene aac(6′)-Ib-cr were not detected. Among the 54 armA-positive isolates, the prevalence of the carbapenem resistant blaOXA-23 and blaOXA-51 genes was 79.63 and 100%, respectively. armA, ant(2″)-Ia and aac(6′)-Ib were positive in 43 isolates. The results of multilocus sequence typing revealed 31 sequence types (STs) in all clinical strains. Among these STs, the high-level aminoglycoside-resistant A. baumannii ST92, which mostly harbored blaOXA-23, was the predominant clone (29/75). In conclusion, A. baumannii harboring carbapenemases and aminoglycoside-resistant enzymes are extremely prevalent in western China, emphasizing the need to adopt surveillance programs to solve the therapeutic challenges that this presents. PMID:28101158

Evaluation of the impact on human salmonellosis of control measures targeted to Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium in poultry breeding using time-series analysis and intervention models in France.

PubMed

Poirier, E; Watier, L; Espie, E; Weill, F-X; De Valk, H; Desenclos, J-C

2008-09-01

In France, salmonellosis is the main cause of foodborne bacterial infection with serotypes Enteritis (SE) and Typhimurium (ST) accounting for 70% of all cases. French authorities implemented a national control programme targeting SE and ST in poultry and eggs from October 1998 onwards. A 33% decrease in salmonellosis has been observed since implementation. We designed an evaluation of the impact of this control programme on SE and ST human infections in France. Using monthly Salmonella human isolate reports to the National Reference Centre we defined two intervention series (SE and ST) and one control series comprising serotypes not know to be associated with poultry or eggs. The series, from 1992 to 2003, were analysed using autoregressive moving average models (ARMA). To test the hypothesis of a reduction of SE and ST human cases >0 after the programme started and to estimate its size, we introduced an intervention model to the ARMA modelling. In contrast to the control series, we found an annual reduction of 555 (95% CI 148-964) SE and of 492 (95% CI 0-1092) ST human infections, representing respectively a 21% and 18% decrease. For SE, the decrease occurred sharply after implementation while for ST, it followed a progressive decrease that started early in 1998. Our study, suggests a true relation between the Salmonella control programme and the subsequent decrease observed for the two targeted serotypes. For ST, however, the decrease prior to the intervention may also reflect control measures implemented earlier by the cattle and milk industry.

An improved portmanteau test for autocorrelated errors in interrupted time-series regression models.

PubMed

Huitema, Bradley E; McKean, Joseph W

2007-08-01

A new portmanteau test for autocorrelation among the errors of interrupted time-series regression models is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that the inferential properties of the proposed Q(H-M) test statistic are considerably more satisfactory than those of the well known Ljung-Box test and moderately better than those of the Box-Pierce test. These conclusions generally hold for a wide variety of autoregressive (AR), moving averages (MA), and ARMA error processes that are associated with time-series regression models of the form described in Huitema and McKean (2000a, 2000b).

Simulation of chemical-vapor-deposited silicon carbide for a cold wall vertical reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. L.; Sanchez, J. M.

1997-07-01

The growth rate of silicon carbide obtained by low-pressure chemical vapor deposition from tetramethylsilane is numerically simulated for a cold wall vertical reactor. The transport equations for momentum, heat, and mass transfer are simultaneously solved by employing the finite volume method. A model for reaction rate is also proposed in order to predict the measured growth rates [A. Figueras, S. Garelik, J. Santiso, R. Rodroguez-Clemente, B. Armas, C. Combescure, R. Berjoan, J.M. Saurel and R. Caplain, Mater. Sci. Eng. B 11 (1992) 83]. Finally, the effects of thermal diffusion on the growth rate are investigated.

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agarwal, G. C.; Goodarzi, S. M.; Oneill, W. D.; Gottlieb, G. L.

1981-01-01

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Cristina Teresa

2015-02-01

The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

Optimum Multisensor, Multitarget Localization and Tracking.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-07

parameter vector t is given by (see Equation (3.5.1-7)’ the simul- taneous solution of A(e) N B G --1 ae &j’ -4n-in (fk’ ijn k3jn ~ k )kjn kjn - knn =1 k...the coefficient of mutual dependence given by M = 12 -(K-2) 121M12 :(3l 11J12 ) (K-2 and Jij is given by (see Equation (6.4.1-2)) - - (_ I R knN kn K...Transactions on Acoustic, Speech and Signal Processing, Vol ASSP-29, No. 3, June 1981. 17. B. Friedlander, "An ARMA Modeling Approach to Multitarget Tracking

Evaluation of the impact on human salmonellosis of control measures targeted to Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium in poultry breeding using time-series analysis and intervention models in France

PubMed Central

POIRIER, E.; WATIER, L.; ESPIE, E.; WEILL, F.-X.; VALK, H. DE; DESENCLOS, J.-C.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY In France, salmonellosis is the main cause of foodborne bacterial infection with serotypes Enteritis (SE) and Typhimurium (ST) accounting for 70% of all cases. French authorities implemented a national control programme targeting SE and ST in poultry and eggs from October 1998 onwards. A 33% decrease in salmonellosis has been observed since implementation. We designed an evaluation of the impact of this control programme on SE and ST human infections in France. Using monthly Salmonella human isolate reports to the National Reference Centre we defined two intervention series (SE and ST) and one control series comprising serotypes not know to be associated with poultry or eggs. The series, from 1992 to 2003, were analysed using autoregressive moving average models (ARMA). To test the hypothesis of a reduction of SE and ST human cases >0 after the programme started and to estimate its size, we introduced an intervention model to the ARMA modelling. In contrast to the control series, we found an annual reduction of 555 (95% CI 148–964) SE and of 492 (95% CI 0–1092) ST human infections, representing respectively a 21% and 18% decrease. For SE, the decrease occurred sharply after implementation while for ST, it followed a progressive decrease that started early in 1998. Our study, suggests a true relation between the Salmonella control programme and the subsequent decrease observed for the two targeted serotypes. For ST, however, the decrease prior to the intervention may also reflect control measures implemented earlier by the cattle and milk industry. PMID:18047748

Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

2017-03-01

In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

Sterol content in the artificial diet of Mythimna separata affects the metabolomics of Arma chinensis (Fallou) as determined by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy.

PubMed

Guo, Yi; Liu, Chen-Xi; Zhang, Li-Sheng; Wang, Meng-Qing; Chen, Hong-Yin

2017-12-01

Insects cannot synthesize sterols and must obtain them from plants. Therefore, reducing plant sterol content or changing sterol type might be an effective pest control strategy. However, the impacts of these changes on pests' natural predators remain unknown. Here, we fed artificial diets with reduced sterol content to Mythimna separata (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and investigated the effects on its natural predator, Arma chinensis (Fallou) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). Reduced sterol content in M. separata (MS1, MS2, and MS5) was achieved by feeding them artificial diets prepared from a feed base subjected to one, two, or five cycles of sterol extractions, respectively. The content of most substances increased in A. chinensis (AC) groups feeding on MS2 and MS5. The content of eight substances (alanine, betaine, dimethylamine, fumarate, glutamine, glycine, methylamine, and sarcosine) differed significantly between the control (AC0) and treated (AC1, AC2, and AC5) groups. Metabolic profiling revealed that only AC5 was significantly distinct from AC0; the major substances contributing to this difference were maltose, glucose, tyrosine, proline, O-phosphocholine, glutamine, allantoin, lysine, valine, and glutamate. Furthermore, only two metabolic pathways, that is, nicotinate and nicotinamide metabolism and ubiquinone and other terpenoid-quinone biosynthesis, differed significantly between AC1 and AC5 and the control, albeit with an impact value of zero. Thus, the sterol content in the artificial diet fed to M. separata only minimally affected the metabolites and metabolic pathways of its predator A. chinensis, suggesting that A. chinensis has good metabolic self-regulation with high resistance to sterol content changes. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impaired cerebrovascular autoregulation and reduced CO₂ reactivity after long duration spaceflight.

PubMed

Zuj, K A; Arbeille, Ph; Shoemaker, J K; Blaber, A P; Greaves, D K; Xu, D; Hughson, R L

2012-06-15

Long duration habitation on the International Space Station (ISS) is associated with chronic elevations in arterial blood pressure in the brain compared with normal upright posture on Earth and elevated inspired CO(2). Although results from short-duration spaceflights suggested possibly improved cerebrovascular autoregulation, animal models provided evidence of structural and functional changes in cerebral vessels that might negatively impact autoregulation with longer periods in microgravity. Seven astronauts (1 woman) spent 147 ± 49 days on ISS. Preflight testing (30-60 days before launch) was compared with postflight testing on landing day (n = 4) or the morning 1 (n = 2) or 2 days (n = 1) after return to Earth. Arterial blood pressure at the level of the middle cerebral artery (BP(MCA)) and expired CO(2) were monitored along with transcranial Doppler ultrasound assessment of middle cerebral artery (MCA) blood flow velocity (CBFV). Cerebrovascular resistance index was calculated as (CVRi = BP(MCA)/CBFV). Cerebrovascular autoregulation and CO(2) reactivity were assessed in a supine position from an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model of data obtained during a test where two breaths of 10% CO(2) were given four times during a 5-min period. CBFV and Doppler pulsatility index were reduced during -20 mmHg lower body negative pressure, with no differences pre- to postflight. The postflight indicator of dynamic autoregulation from the ARMA model revealed reduced gain for the CVRi response to BP(MCA) (P = 0.017). The postflight responses to CO(2) were reduced for CBFV (P = 0.056) and CVRi (P = 0.047). These results indicate that long duration missions on the ISS impaired dynamic cerebrovascular autoregulation and reduced cerebrovascular CO(2) reactivity.

Neuro-fuzzy and neural network techniques for forecasting sea level in Darwin Harbor, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Sepideh; Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Makarynskyy, Oleg

2013-03-01

Accurate predictions of sea level with different forecast horizons are important for coastal and ocean engineering applications, as well as in land drainage and reclamation studies. The methodology of tidal harmonic analysis, which is generally used for obtaining a mathematical description of the tides, is data demanding requiring processing of tidal observation collected over several years. In the present study, hourly sea levels for Darwin Harbor, Australia were predicted using two different, data driven techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network (ANN). Multi linear regression (MLR) technique was used for selecting the optimal input combinations (lag times) of hourly sea level. The input combination comprises current sea level as well as five previous level values found to be optimal. For the ANFIS models, five different membership functions namely triangular, trapezoidal, generalized bell, Gaussian and two Gaussian membership function were tested and employed for predicting sea level for the next 1 h, 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. The used ANN models were trained using three different algorithms, namely, Levenberg-Marquardt, conjugate gradient and gradient descent. Predictions of optimal ANFIS and ANN models were compared with those of the optimal auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance account statistics were used as comparison criteria. The obtained results indicated that triangular membership function was optimal for predictions with the ANFIS models while adaptive learning rate and Levenberg-Marquardt were most suitable for training the ANN models. Consequently, ANFIS and ANN models gave similar forecasts and performed better than the developed for the same purpose ARMA models for all the prediction intervals.

Stability of ARDS subphenotypes over time in two randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Delucchi, Kevin; Famous, Katie R; Ware, Lorraine B; Parsons, Polly E; Thompson, B Taylor; Calfee, Carolyn S

2018-05-01

Two distinct acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) subphenotypes have been identified using data obtained at time of enrolment in clinical trials; it remains unknown if these subphenotypes are durable over time. To determine the stability of ARDS subphenotypes over time. Secondary analysis of data from two randomised controlled trials in ARDS, the ARMA trial of lung protective ventilation (n=473; patients randomised to low tidal volumes only) and the ALVEOLI trial of low versus high positive end-expiratory pressure (n=549). Latent class analysis (LCA) and latent transition analysis (LTA) were applied to data from day 0 and day 3, independent of clinical outcomes. In ALVEOLI, LCA indicated strong evidence of two ARDS latent classes at days 0 and 3; in ARMA, evidence of two classes was stronger at day 0 than at day 3. The clinical and biological features of these two classes were similar to those in our prior work and were largely stable over time, though class 2 demonstrated evidence of progressive organ failures by day 3, compared with class 1. In both LCA and LTA models, the majority of patients (>94%) stayed in the same class from day 0 to day 3. Clinical outcomes were statistically significantly worse in class 2 than class 1 and were more strongly associated with day 3 class assignment. ARDS subphenotypes are largely stable over the first 3 days of enrolment in two ARDS Network trials, suggesting that subphenotype identification may be feasible in the context of clinical trials. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Optimization of the time series NDVI-rainfall relationship using linear mixed-effects modeling for the anti-desertification area in the Beijing and Tianjin sandstorm source region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jin; Sun, Tao; Fu, Anmin; Xu, Hao; Wang, Xinjie

2018-05-01

Degradation in drylands is a critically important global issue that threatens ecosystem and environmental in many ways. Researchers have tried to use remote sensing data and meteorological data to perform residual trend analysis and identify human-induced vegetation changes. However, complex interactions between vegetation and climate, soil units and topography have not yet been considered. Data used in the study included annual accumulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 2002 to 2013, accumulated rainfall from September to August, digital elevation model (DEM) and soil units. This paper presents linear mixed-effect (LME) modeling methods for the NDVI-rainfall relationship. We developed linear mixed-effects models that considered the random effects of sample points nested in soil units for nested two-level modeling and single-level modeling of soil units and sample points, respectively. Additionally, three functions, including the exponential function (exp), the power function (power), and the constant plus power function (CPP), were tested to remove heterogeneity, and an additional three correlation structures, including the first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], a combination of first-order autoregressive and moving average structures [ARMA(1,1)] and the compound symmetry structure (CS), were used to address the spatiotemporal correlations. It was concluded that the nested two-level model considering both heteroscedasticity with (CPP) and spatiotemporal correlation with [ARMA(1,1)] showed the best performance (AMR = 0.1881, RMSE = 0.2576, adj- R 2 = 0.9593). Variations between soil units and sample points that may have an effect on the NDVI-rainfall relationship should be included in model structures, and linear mixed-effects modeling achieves this in an effective and accurate way.

The application of time series models to cloud field morphology analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Roland T.; Jau, Jack Y. C.; Weinman, James A.

1987-01-01

A modeling method for the quantitative description of remotely sensed cloud field images is presented. A two-dimensional texture modeling scheme based on one-dimensional time series procedures is adopted for this purpose. The time series procedure used is the seasonal autoregressive, moving average (ARMA) process in Box and Jenkins. Cloud field properties such as directionality, clustering and cloud coverage can be retrieved by this method. It has been demonstrated that a cloud field image can be quantitatively defined by a small set of parameters and synthesized surrogates can be reconstructed from these model parameters. This method enables cloud climatology to be studied quantitatively.

Distributed parameter system coupled ARMA expansion identification and adaptive parallel IIR filtering - A unified problem statement. [Auto Regressive Moving-Average

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, C. R., Jr.; Balas, M. J.

1980-01-01

A novel interconnection of distributed parameter system (DPS) identification and adaptive filtering is presented, which culminates in a common statement of coupled autoregressive, moving-average expansion or parallel infinite impulse response configuration adaptive parameterization. The common restricted complexity filter objectives are seen as similar to the reduced-order requirements of the DPS expansion description. The interconnection presents the possibility of an exchange of problem formulations and solution approaches not yet easily addressed in the common finite dimensional lumped-parameter system context. It is concluded that the shared problems raised are nevertheless many and difficult.

An adaptive optimal control for smart structures based on the subspace tracking identification technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ripamonti, Francesco; Resta, Ferruccio; Borroni, Massimo; Cazzulani, Gabriele

2014-04-01

A new method for the real-time identification of mechanical system modal parameters is used in order to design different adaptive control logics aiming to reduce the vibrations in a carbon fiber plate smart structure. It is instrumented with three piezoelectric actuators, three accelerometers and three strain gauges. The real-time identification is based on a recursive subspace tracking algorithm whose outputs are elaborated by an ARMA model. A statistical approach is finally applied to choose the modal parameter correct values. These are given in input to model-based control logics such as a gain scheduling and an adaptive LQR control.

Simulating extreme low-discharge events for the Rhine using a stochastic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Mens, Marjolein; Schasfoort, Femke; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2017-04-01

The specific features of hydrological droughts make them more difficult to be analysed than other water-related phenomena: longer time scales (months to several years) so less historical events are available, and the drought severity and associate damage depends on a combination of variables with no clear prevalence (e.g., total water deficit, maximum deficit and duration). As part of drought risk analysis, which aims to provide insight into the variability of hydrological conditions and associated socio-economic impacts, long synthetic time series should therefore be developed. In this contribution, we increase the length of the available inflow time series using stochastic autoregressive modelling. This enhancement could improve the characterization of the extreme range and can define extreme droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns that can lead to distinctly different damages. The methodology consists of: 1) fitting an autoregressive model (AR, ARMA…) to the available records; 2) generating extended time series (thousands of years); 3) performing a frequency analysis with different characteristic variables (total, deficit, maximum deficit and so on); and 4) selecting extreme drought events associated with different characteristic variables and return periods. The methodology was applied to the Rhine river discharge at location Lobith, where the Rhine enters The Netherlands. A monthly ARMA(1,1) autoregressive model with seasonally varying parameters was fitted and successfully validated to the historical records available since year 1901. The maximum monthly deficit with respect to a threshold value of 1800 m3/s and the average discharge for a given time span in m3/s were chosen as indicators to identify drought periods. A synthetic series of 10,000 years of discharges was generated using the validated ARMA model. Two time spans were considered in the analysis: the whole calendar year and the half-year period between April and September (the summer half year, where water demands are highest). Frequency analysis was performed for both indicators and time spans for the generated time series and the historical records. The comparison between observed and generated series showed that the ARMA model provides a good reproduction of the maximum deficits and total discharges, especially for the summer half-year period. The resulting synthetic series are therefore considered credible. These synthetic series, with its wealth of information, can then be used as inputs for the damage assessment models, together with information on precipitation deficits, in order to estimate the risk that lower inflows can have on the urban, the agricultural, the shipping sector and so on. This will help in associating economic losses and periods of return, as well as for estimating how droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns can lead to different damages. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811), and by the Climate-KIC Pioneers into Practice Program supported by the European Union's EIT.

A frequency domain global parameter estimation method for multiple reference frequency response measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, C. Y.; Tsuei, Y. G.; Allemang, R. J.; Brown, D. L.

1988-10-01

A method of using the matrix Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model in the Laplace domain for multiple-reference global parameter identification is presented. This method is particularly applicable to the area of modal analysis where high modal density exists. The method is also applicable when multiple reference frequency response functions are used to characterise linear systems. In order to facilitate the mathematical solution, the Forsythe orthogonal polynomial is used to reduce the ill-conditioning of the formulated equations and to decouple the normal matrix into two reduced matrix blocks. A Complex Mode Indicator Function (CMIF) is introduced, which can be used to determine the proper order of the rational polynomials.

Paediatric rheumatology practice in the UK benchmarked against the British Society for Paediatric and Adolescent Rheumatology/Arthritis and Musculoskeletal Alliance Standards of Care for juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

PubMed

Kavirayani, Akhila; Foster, Helen E

2013-12-01

To describe current clinical practice against the BSPAR/ARMA Standards of Care (SOCs) for children and young people (CYP) with incident JIA. Ten UK paediatric rheumatology centres (including all current centres nationally accredited for paediatric rheumatology higher specialist training) participated in a retrospective case notes review using a pretested pro forma based on the SOC. Data collected per centre included clinical service configuration and the initial clinical care for a minimum of 30 consecutive new patients seen within the previous 2 years and followed up for at least 6 months. A total of 428 CYP with JIA (median age 11 years, range 1-21 years) were included, with complete data available for 73% (311/428). Against the key SOCs, 41% (175/428) were assessed ≤10 weeks from symptom onset, 60% (186/311) ≤4 weeks from referral, 26% (81/311) had eye screening at ≤6 weeks, 83% (282/341) had joint injections at ≤6 weeks, 59% (184/311) were assessed by a nurse specialist at ≤4 weeks and 45% (141/311) were assessed by a physiotherapist at ≤8 weeks. A median of 6% of patients per centre participated in clinical trials. All centres had access to eye screening and prescribed biologic therapies. All had access to a nurse specialist and physiotherapist. Most had access to an occupational therapist (8/10), psychologist (8/10), joint injection lists (general anaesthesia/inhaled analgesia) (9/10) and designated transitional care clinics (7/10). This first description of UK clinical practice in paediatric rheumatology benchmarked against the BSPAR/ARMA SOCs demonstrates variable clinical service delivery. Considerable delay in access to specialist care is evident and this needs to be addressed in order to improve clinical outcomes.

Operational Modal Analysis of Bridge Structures with Data from GNSS/Accelerometer Measurements.

PubMed

Xiong, Chunbao; Lu, Huali; Zhu, Jinsong

2017-02-23

Real-time dynamic displacement and acceleration responses of the main span section of the Tianjin Fumin Bridge in China under ambient excitation were tested using a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) dynamic deformation monitoring system and an acceleration sensor vibration test system. Considering the close relationship between the GNSS multipath errors and measurement environment in combination with the noise reduction characteristics of different filtering algorithms, the researchers proposed an AFEC mixed filtering algorithm, which is an combination of autocorrelation function-based empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Chebyshev mixed filtering to extract the real vibration displacement of the bridge structure after system error correction and filtering de-noising of signals collected by the GNSS. The proposed AFEC mixed filtering algorithm had high accuracy (1 mm) of real displacement at the elevation direction. Next, the traditional random decrement technique (used mainly for stationary random processes) was expanded to non-stationary random processes. Combining the expanded random decrement technique (RDT) and autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), the modal frequency of the bridge structural system was extracted using an expanded ARMA_RDT modal identification method, which was compared with the power spectrum analysis results of the acceleration signal and finite element analysis results. Identification results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm is applicable to analyze the dynamic displacement monitoring data of real bridge structures under ambient excitation and could identify the first five orders of the inherent frequencies of the structural system accurately. The identification error of the inherent frequency was smaller than 6%, indicating the high identification accuracy of the proposed algorithm. Furthermore, the GNSS dynamic deformation monitoring method can be used to monitor dynamic displacement and identify the modal parameters of bridge structures. The GNSS can monitor the working state of bridges effectively and accurately. Research results can provide references to evaluate the bearing capacity, safety performance, and durability of bridge structures during operation.

Operational Modal Analysis of Bridge Structures with Data from GNSS/Accelerometer Measurements

PubMed Central

Xiong, Chunbao; Lu, Huali; Zhu, Jinsong

2017-01-01

Real-time dynamic displacement and acceleration responses of the main span section of the Tianjin Fumin Bridge in China under ambient excitation were tested using a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) dynamic deformation monitoring system and an acceleration sensor vibration test system. Considering the close relationship between the GNSS multipath errors and measurement environment in combination with the noise reduction characteristics of different filtering algorithms, the researchers proposed an AFEC mixed filtering algorithm, which is an combination of autocorrelation function-based empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Chebyshev mixed filtering to extract the real vibration displacement of the bridge structure after system error correction and filtering de-noising of signals collected by the GNSS. The proposed AFEC mixed filtering algorithm had high accuracy (1 mm) of real displacement at the elevation direction. Next, the traditional random decrement technique (used mainly for stationary random processes) was expanded to non-stationary random processes. Combining the expanded random decrement technique (RDT) and autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), the modal frequency of the bridge structural system was extracted using an expanded ARMA_RDT modal identification method, which was compared with the power spectrum analysis results of the acceleration signal and finite element analysis results. Identification results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm is applicable to analyze the dynamic displacement monitoring data of real bridge structures under ambient excitation and could identify the first five orders of the inherent frequencies of the structural system accurately. The identification error of the inherent frequency was smaller than 6%, indicating the high identification accuracy of the proposed algorithm. Furthermore, the GNSS dynamic deformation monitoring method can be used to monitor dynamic displacement and identify the modal parameters of bridge structures. The GNSS can monitor the working state of bridges effectively and accurately. Research results can provide references to evaluate the bearing capacity, safety performance, and durability of bridge structures during operation. PMID:28241472

Habitus furibundo en el gueto estadounidense1

PubMed Central

Bourgois, Philippe; Castrillo, Fernando Montero; Hart, Laurie; Karandinos, George

2014-01-01

Resumen Durante cinco años, un torbellino cotidiano de tiroteos, apuñalamientos y asaltos afectó a la venta de drogas al aire libre en el vecindario puertorriqueño de Filadelfia, donde residíamos y conducíamos nuestro trabajo de campo. La industria de los narcóticos ha venido a llenar el vacío que dejó la desindustrialización, convirtiendo al antiguo distrito fabril de la ciudad en un mercado de narcóticos a cielo abierto que emplea en sus niveles más bajos a jóvenes puertorriqueños y cuyos clientes son principalmente heroinómanos blancos de bajos recursos. La capacidad para movilizar la furia asegura el éxito en la economía de las drogas, garantiza protección en las cárceles y le provee un ingreso mínimo a una población de bajos recursos estigmatizada cuyos miembros frecuentemente reciben diagnósticos médicos de discapacidad cognitiva. Muchos residentes buscan alianzas en redes sociales que los comprometen a participar en intercambios solidarios de violencia auxiliar. Una dinámica de acumulación primitiva corporizada mata, hiere, discapacita o encarcela a la mayoría de estos empleados de bajo nivel y a sus clientes. Los inflados márgenes de ganancia alrededor de esta dinámica dependen de la violencia y la coerción. Un habitus furibundo impulsa a los vendedores callejeros a defender violentamente el micro monopolio de poder de sus jefes en la economía subterránea como si fuese un asunto de diversión. Estos miembros de los niveles más bajos de la industria del narcotráfico se apresuran a fraguar transacciones comerciales en ausencia de un marco legal en un ambiente de escasez que sin embargo se ve inundado por enormes flujos de dinero, drogas adictivas y armas automáticas. Tras las drásticas reformas a los programas de seguridad social, la mano izquierda del Estado, en la forma de los servicios sociales, intenta prolongar los subsidios para individuos vulnerables diagnosticándolos como discapacitados cognitivos permanentes necesitados de fuerte medicación farmacéutica. La mejor manera de asegurar la continuidad de este frágil subsidio resulta ser los estallidos periódicos de violencia autoinfligida. Simultáneamente, con la anuencia de la mano derecha del Estado, en las cárceles violentas y hacinadas marcadas por formas hostiles de supervisión, la furia se convierte en una valiosa estrategia de protección física para los internos. En resumen, la violencia expresiva se convierte en una base práctica para el sostenimiento económico y para forjar el sentido de dignidad entre hombres y mujeres. PMID:24532976

A parameter estimation algorithm for spatial sine testing - Theory and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rost, R. W.; Deblauwe, F.

1992-01-01

This paper presents the theory and an evaluation of a spatial sine testing parameter estimation algorithm that uses directly the measured forced mode of vibration and the measured force vector. The parameter estimation algorithm uses an ARMA model and a recursive QR algorithm is applied for data reduction. In this first evaluation, the algorithm has been applied to a frequency response matrix (which is a particular set of forced mode of vibration) using a sliding frequency window. The objective of the sliding frequency window is to execute the analysis simultaneously with the data acquisition. Since the pole values and the modal density are obtained from this analysis during the acquisition, the analysis information can be used to help determine the forcing vectors during the experimental data acquisition.

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2013-12-18

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and comparesmore » the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.« less

Thermal signature identification system (TheSIS): a spread spectrum temperature cycling method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merritt, Scott

2015-03-01

NASA GSFC's Thermal Signature Identification System (TheSIS) 1) measures the high order dynamic responses of optoelectronic components to direct sequence spread-spectrum temperature cycling, 2) estimates the parameters of multiple autoregressive moving average (ARMA) or other models the of the responses, 3) and selects the most appropriate model using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Using the AIC-tested model and parameter vectors from TheSIS, one can 1) select high-performing components on a multivariate basis, i.e., with multivariate Figures of Merit (FOMs), 2) detect subtle reversible shifts in performance, and 3) investigate irreversible changes in component or subsystem performance, e.g. aging. We show examples of the TheSIS methodology for passive and active components and systems, e.g. fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) and DFB lasers with coupled temperature control loops, respectively.

Identification of PARMA Models and Their Application to the Modeling of River flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfaye, Y. G.; Meerschaert, M. M.; Anderson, P. L.

2004-05-01

The generation of synthetic river flow samples that can reproduce the essential statistical features of historical river flows is essential to the planning, design and operation of water resource systems. Most river flow series are periodically stationary; that is, their mean and covariance functions are periodic with respect to time. We employ a periodic ARMA (PARMA) model. The innovation algorithm can be used to obtain parameter estimates for PARMA models with finite fourth moment as well as infinite fourth moment but finite variance. Anderson and Meerschaert (2003) provide a method for model identification when the time series has finite fourth moment. This article, an extension of the previous work by Anderson and Meerschaert, demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique using simulated data. An application to monthly flow data for the Frazier River in British Columbia is also included to illustrate the use of these methods.

Parameter identification for structural dynamics based on interval analysis algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chen; Lu, Zixing; Yang, Zhenyu; Liang, Ke

2018-04-01

A parameter identification method using interval analysis algorithm for structural dynamics is presented in this paper. The proposed uncertain identification method is investigated by using central difference method and ARMA system. With the help of the fixed memory least square method and matrix inverse lemma, a set-membership identification technology is applied to obtain the best estimation of the identified parameters in a tight and accurate region. To overcome the lack of insufficient statistical description of the uncertain parameters, this paper treats uncertainties as non-probabilistic intervals. As long as we know the bounds of uncertainties, this algorithm can obtain not only the center estimations of parameters, but also the bounds of errors. To improve the efficiency of the proposed method, a time-saving algorithm is presented by recursive formula. At last, to verify the accuracy of the proposed method, two numerical examples are applied and evaluated by three identification criteria respectively.

Reservoirs performances under climate variability: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, A.; Mautone, M.; de Luca, C.

2014-09-01

A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Park, S.; Kim, Y. Y.; Wi, G.

2015-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

An Illustration of Generalised Arma (garma) Time Series Modeling of Forest Area in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, Thulasyammal Ramiah; Shitan, Mahendran

Forestry is the art and science of managing forests, tree plantations, and related natural resources. The main goal of forestry is to create and implement systems that allow forests to continue a sustainable provision of environmental supplies and services. Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees, whether productive or not. Forest area of Malaysia has been observed over the years and it can be modeled using time series models. A new class of GARMA models have been introduced in the time series literature to reveal some hidden features in time series data. For these models to be used widely in practice, we illustrate the fitting of GARMA (1, 1; 1, δ) model to the Annual Forest Area data of Malaysia which has been observed from 1987 to 2008. The estimation of the model was done using Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm, Whittle's Estimation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

Mean-variance portfolio optimization by using time series approaches based on logarithmic utility function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeryana, E.; Fadhlina, N.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on logarithmic utility function. Non constant mean analysed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analysed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyse some Islamic stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each Islamic stock analysed.

Mean-Variance portfolio optimization by using non constant mean and volatility based on the negative exponential utility function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeryana, Endang; Halim, Nurfadhlina Bt Abdul; Sukono, Rusyaman, Endang; Supian, Sudradjat

2017-03-01

Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on the Negative Exponential Utility Function. Non constant mean analyzed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analyzed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyze some stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each stock analyzed

Design and implementation of ticket price forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuling; Li, Zhichao

2018-05-01

With the advent of the aviation travel industry, a large number of data mining technologies have been developed to increase profits for airlines in the past two decades. The implementation of the digital optimization strategy leads to price discrimination, for example, similar seats on the same flight are purchased at different prices, depending on the time of purchase, the supplier, and so on. Price fluctuations make the prediction of ticket prices have application value. In this paper, a combination of ARMA algorithm and random forest algorithm is proposed to predict the price of air ticket. The experimental results show that the model is more reliable by comparing the forecasting results with the actual results of each price model. The model is helpful for passengers to buy tickets and to save money. Based on the proposed model, using Python language and SQL Server database, we design and implement the ticket price forecasting system.

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

2016-07-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Space Weather Services of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

2016-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

ARMA Cholesky Factor Models for the Covariance Matrix of Linear Models.

PubMed

Lee, Keunbaik; Baek, Changryong; Daniels, Michael J

2017-11-01

In longitudinal studies, serial dependence of repeated outcomes must be taken into account to make correct inferences on covariate effects. As such, care must be taken in modeling the covariance matrix. However, estimation of the covariance matrix is challenging because there are many parameters in the matrix and the estimated covariance matrix should be positive definite. To overcomes these limitations, two Cholesky decomposition approaches have been proposed: modified Cholesky decomposition for autoregressive (AR) structure and moving average Cholesky decomposition for moving average (MA) structure, respectively. However, the correlations of repeated outcomes are often not captured parsimoniously using either approach separately. In this paper, we propose a class of flexible, nonstationary, heteroscedastic models that exploits the structure allowed by combining the AR and MA modeling of the covariance matrix that we denote as ARMACD. We analyze a recent lung cancer study to illustrate the power of our proposed methods.

Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2013-05-24

Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995-2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) "in-control" status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues.

Autoregressive moving average modeling for spectral parameter estimation from a multigradient echo chemical shift acquisition

PubMed Central

Taylor, Brian A.; Hwang, Ken-Pin; Hazle, John D.; Stafford, R. Jason

2009-01-01

The authors investigated the performance of the iterative Steiglitz–McBride (SM) algorithm on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model of signals from a fast, sparsely sampled, multiecho, chemical shift imaging (CSI) acquisition using simulation, phantom, ex vivo, and in vivo experiments with a focus on its potential usage in magnetic resonance (MR)-guided interventions. The ARMA signal model facilitated a rapid calculation of the chemical shift, apparent spin-spin relaxation time (T2*), and complex amplitudes of a multipeak system from a limited number of echoes (≤16). Numerical simulations of one- and two-peak systems were used to assess the accuracy and uncertainty in the calculated spectral parameters as a function of acquisition and tissue parameters. The measured uncertainties from simulation were compared to the theoretical Cramer–Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the acquisition. Measurements made in phantoms were used to validate the T2* estimates and to validate uncertainty estimates made from the CRLB. We demonstrated application to real-time MR-guided interventions ex vivo by using the technique to monitor a percutaneous ethanol injection into a bovine liver and in vivo to monitor a laser-induced thermal therapy treatment in a canine brain. Simulation results showed that the chemical shift and amplitude uncertainties reached their respective CRLB at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)≥5 for echo train lengths (ETLs)≥4 using a fixed echo spacing of 3.3 ms. T2* estimates from the signal model possessed higher uncertainties but reached the CRLB at larger SNRs and∕or ETLs. Highly accurate estimates for the chemical shift (<0.01 ppm) and amplitude (<1.0%) were obtained with ≥4 echoes and for T2* (<1.0%) with ≥7 echoes. We conclude that, over a reasonable range of SNR, the SM algorithm is a robust estimator of spectral parameters from fast CSI acquisitions that acquire ≤16 echoes for one- and two-peak systems. Preliminary ex vivo and in vivo experiments corroborated the results from simulation experiments and further indicate the potential of this technique for MR-guided interventional procedures with high spatiotemporal resolution ∼1.6×1.6×4 mm3 in ≤5 s. PMID:19378736

The New Era in Operational Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Knipp, D. J.; Blake, J. B.; Rex, J.; Fuschino, R.; Mertens, C. J.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Atwell, W.

2012-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) and Space Environment Technologies (SET) are developing and producing commercial space weather applications. Key systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather are SWC's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system, SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), and SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. These operational runs enable the reporting of global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders via the http://q-upnow.com website. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. ARMAS is demonstrating a prototype flight of microdosimeters on aircraft to capture the "weather" of the radiation environment for air-crew and passenger safety. It assimilates real-time radiation dose and dose rate data into the global NAIRAS radiation system to correct the global climatology for more accurate radiation fields along flight tracks. This team also provides the space weather smartphone app called SpaceWx for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android for professional users and public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example, as well as global NVIS maps. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving space weather information through automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.

Design of a compensation for an ARMA model of a discrete time system. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mainemer, C. I.

1978-01-01

The design of an optimal dynamic compensator for a multivariable discrete time system is studied. Also the design of compensators to achieve minimum variance control strategies for single input single output systems is analyzed. In the first problem the initial conditions of the plant are random variables with known first and second order moments, and the cost is the expected value of the standard cost, quadratic in the states and controls. The compensator is based on the minimum order Luenberger observer and it is found optimally by minimizing a performance index. Necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality of the compensator are derived. The second problem is solved in three different ways; two of them working directly in the frequency domain and one working in the time domain. The first and second order moments of the initial conditions are irrelevant to the solution. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the compensator to minimize the variance of the output.

Day-Ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using a Novel Morphological Component Analysis Based Model

PubMed Central

Zhu, Qing; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

2014-01-01

As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations. PMID:25061614

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

PubMed

Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2015-01-01

This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cifter, Atilla

2011-06-01

This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

PubMed Central

Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2015-01-01

This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels. PMID:26351652

Deep learning architecture for air quality predictions.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Hu, Yuan; Shao, Jing; Chi, Tianhe

2016-11-01

With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, many developing countries are suffering from heavy air pollution. Governments and citizens have expressed increasing concern regarding air pollution because it affects human health and sustainable development worldwide. Current air quality prediction methods mainly use shallow models; however, these methods produce unsatisfactory results, which inspired us to investigate methods of predicting air quality based on deep architecture models. In this paper, a novel spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL)-based air quality prediction method that inherently considers spatial and temporal correlations is proposed. A stacked autoencoder (SAE) model is used to extract inherent air quality features, and it is trained in a greedy layer-wise manner. Compared with traditional time series prediction models, our model can predict the air quality of all stations simultaneously and shows the temporal stability in all seasons. Moreover, a comparison with the spatiotemporal artificial neural network (STANN), auto regression moving average (ARMA), and support vector regression (SVR) models demonstrates that the proposed method of performing air quality predictions has a superior performance.

Day-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a novel morphological component analysis based model.

PubMed

Zhu, Qing; He, Kaijian; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

2014-01-01

As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations.

Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

2018-04-01

The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Methods Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995–2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) “in-control” status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. Results The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. Conclusions The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues. PMID:23705957

Wavelet-based multiscale performance analysis: An approach to assess and improve hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rathinasamy, Maheswaran; Khosa, Rakesh; Adamowski, Jan; ch, Sudheer; Partheepan, G.; Anand, Jatin; Narsimlu, Boini

2014-12-01

The temporal dynamics of hydrological processes are spread across different time scales and, as such, the performance of hydrological models cannot be estimated reliably from global performance measures that assign a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. Accordingly, it is important to analyze model performance at different time scales. Wavelets have been used extensively in the area of hydrological modeling for multiscale analysis, and have been shown to be very reliable and useful in understanding dynamics across time scales and as these evolve in time. In this paper, a wavelet-based multiscale performance measure for hydrological models is proposed and tested (i.e., Multiscale Nash-Sutcliffe Criteria and Multiscale Normalized Root Mean Square Error). The main advantage of this method is that it provides a quantitative measure of model performance across different time scales. In the proposed approach, model and observed time series are decomposed using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (known as the à trous wavelet transform), and performance measures of the model are obtained at each time scale. The applicability of the proposed method was explored using various case studies-both real as well as synthetic. The synthetic case studies included various kinds of errors (e.g., timing error, under and over prediction of high and low flows) in outputs from a hydrologic model. The real time case studies investigated in this study included simulation results of both the process-based Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, as well as statistical models, namely the Coupled Wavelet-Volterra (WVC), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) methods. For the SWAT model, data from Wainganga and Sind Basin (India) were used, while for the Wavelet Volterra, ANN and ARMA models, data from the Cauvery River Basin (India) and Fraser River (Canada) were used. The study also explored the effect of the choice of the wavelets in multiscale model evaluation. It was found that the proposed wavelet-based performance measures, namely the MNSC (Multiscale Nash-Sutcliffe Criteria) and MNRMSE (Multiscale Normalized Root Mean Square Error), are a more reliable measure than traditional performance measures such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Criteria (NSC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). Further, the proposed methodology can be used to: i) compare different hydrological models (both physical and statistical models), and ii) help in model calibration.

Detecting Biosphere anomalies hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guanche-Garcia, Yanira; Mahecha, Miguel; Flach, Milan; Denzler, Joachim

2017-04-01

The current amount of satellite remote sensing measurements available allow for applying data-driven methods to investigate environmental processes. The detection of anomalies or abnormal events is crucial to monitor the Earth system and to analyze their impacts on ecosystems and society. By means of a combination of statistical methods, this study proposes an intuitive and efficient methodology to detect those areas that present hotspots of anomalies, i.e. higher levels of abnormal or extreme events or more severe phases during our historical records. Biosphere variables from a preliminary version of the Earth System Data Cube developed within the CAB-LAB project (http://earthsystemdatacube.net/) have been used in this study. This database comprises several atmosphere and biosphere variables expanding 11 years (2001-2011) with 8-day of temporal resolution and 0.25° of global spatial resolution. In this study, we have used 10 variables that measure the biosphere. The methodology applied to detect abnormal events follows the intuitive idea that anomalies are assumed to be time steps that are not well represented by a previously estimated statistical model [1].We combine the use of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models with a distance metric like Mahalanobis distance to detect abnormal events in multiple biosphere variables. In a first step we pre-treat the variables by removing the seasonality and normalizing them locally (μ=0,σ=1). Additionally we have regionalized the area of study into subregions of similar climate conditions, by using the Köppen climate classification. For each climate region and variable we have selected the best ARMA parameters by means of a Bayesian Criteria. Then we have obtained the residuals by comparing the fitted models with the original data. To detect the extreme residuals from the 10 variables, we have computed the Mahalanobis distance to the data's mean (Hotelling's T^2), which considers the covariance matrix of the joint distribution. The proposed methodology has been applied to different areas around the globe. The results show that the method is able to detect historic events and also provides a useful tool to define sensitive regions. This method and results have been developed within the framework of the project BACI (http://baci-h2020.eu/), which aims to integrate Earth Observation data to monitor the earth system and assessing the impacts of terrestrial changes. [1] V. Chandola, A., Banerjee and v., Kumar. Anomaly detection: a survey. ACM computing surveys (CSUR), vol. 41, n. 3, 2009. [2] P. Mahalanobis. On the generalised distance in statistics. Proceedings National Institute of Science, vol. 2, pp 49-55, 1936.

Comparison between stochastic and machine learning methods for hydrological multi-step ahead forecasting: All forecasts are wrong!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papacharalampous, Georgia; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2017-04-01

Machine learning (ML) is considered to be a promising approach to hydrological processes forecasting. We conduct a comparison between several stochastic and ML point estimation methods by performing large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. The purpose is to provide generalized results, while the respective comparisons in the literature are usually based on case studies. The stochastic methods used include simple methods, models from the frequently used families of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Exponential Smoothing models. The ML methods used are Random Forests (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks (NN). The comparison refers to the multi-step ahead forecasting properties of the methods. A total of 20 methods are used, among which 9 are the ML methods. 12 simulation experiments are performed, while each of them uses 2 000 simulated time series of 310 observations. The time series are simulated using stochastic processes from the families of ARMA and ARFIMA models. Each time series is split into a fitting (first 300 observations) and a testing set (last 10 observations). The comparative assessment of the methods is based on 18 metrics, that quantify the methods' performance according to several criteria related to the accurate forecasting of the testing set, the capturing of its variation and the correlation between the testing and forecasted values. The most important outcome of this study is that there is not a uniformly better or worse method. However, there are methods that are regularly better or worse than others with respect to specific metrics. It appears that, although a general ranking of the methods is not possible, their classification based on their similar or contrasting performance in the various metrics is possible to some extent. Another important conclusion is that more sophisticated methods do not necessarily provide better forecasts compared to simpler methods. It is pointed out that the ML methods do not differ dramatically from the stochastic methods, while it is interesting that the NN, RF and SVM algorithms used in this study offer potentially very good performance in terms of accuracy. It should be noted that, although this study focuses on hydrological processes, the results are of general scientific interest. Another important point in this study is the use of several methods and metrics. Using fewer methods and fewer metrics would have led to a very different overall picture, particularly if those fewer metrics corresponded to fewer criteria. For this reason, we consider that the proposed methodology is appropriate for the evaluation of forecasting methods.

Effects of H sub 2 S addition on the performance of fresh vs. used CoMo catalysts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rankel, L.A.

1991-01-01

When a Co/Mo catalyst is used for processing vanadium-containing heavy oils, vanadium deposits on the catalyst. As the amount of vanadium on the CoMo catalyst increases, the catalytic effects of CoMo decline and the presence of vanadium starts to influence the hydroprocessing products. Model feeds have been used to explore the changes in the catalytic activity of CoMo, aged CoMo, and VS{sub x} on alumina. Desulfurization, denitrogenation, deoxygenation, aromatics hydrogenation, and metals removal were monitored. This paper reports that, upon the addition of hydrogen sulfide to hydrogen, improvements in the catalysts for aromatics hydrogenation, denitrogenation and metals removal were observed.

TUBERCULOSIS COMO ENFERMEDAD OCUPACIONAL

PubMed Central

Mendoza-Ticona, Alberto

2014-01-01

Existe evidencia suficiente para declarar a la tuberculosis como enfermedad ocupacional en diversos profesionales especialmente entre los trabajadores de salud. En el Perú están normados y reglamentados los derechos laborales inherentes a la tuberculosis como enfermedad ocupacional, como la cobertura por discapacidad temporal o permanente. Sin embargo, estos derechos aún no han sido suficientemente socializados. En este trabajo se presenta información sobre el riesgo de adquirir tuberculosis en el lugar de trabajo, se revisan las evidencias para declarar a la tuberculosis como enfermedad ocupacional en trabajadores de salud y se presenta la legislación peruana vigente al respecto. PMID:22858771

MIXREG: a computer program for mixed-effects regression analysis with autocorrelated errors.

PubMed

Hedeker, D; Gibbons, R D

1996-05-01

MIXREG is a program that provides estimates for a mixed-effects regression model (MRM) for normally-distributed response data including autocorrelated errors. This model can be used for analysis of unbalanced longitudinal data, where individuals may be measured at a different number of timepoints, or even at different timepoints. Autocorrelated errors of a general form or following an AR(1), MA(1), or ARMA(1,1) form are allowable. This model can also be used for analysis of clustered data, where the mixed-effects model assumes data within clusters are dependent. The degree of dependency is estimated jointly with estimates of the usual model parameters, thus adjusting for clustering. MIXREG uses maximum marginal likelihood estimation, utilizing both the EM algorithm and a Fisher-scoring solution. For the scoring solution, the covariance matrix of the random effects is expressed in its Gaussian decomposition, and the diagonal matrix reparameterized using the exponential transformation. Estimation of the individual random effects is accomplished using an empirical Bayes approach. Examples illustrating usage and features of MIXREG are provided.

Advective and diapycnal diffusive oceanic flux in Tenerife - La Gomera Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero-Díaz, A.; Rodriguez-Santana, A.; Hernández-Arencibia, M.; Machín, F.; García-Weil, L.

2012-04-01

During the year 2008, using the commercial passenger ship Volcán de Tauce of the Naviera Armas company several months, it was possible to obtain vertical profiles of temperature from expandable bathythermograph probes in eight stations across the Tenerife - La Gomera channel. With these data of temperature we have been estimated vertical sections of potential density and geostrophic transport with high spatial and temporal resolution (5 nm between stations, and one- two months between cruises). The seasonal variability obtained for the geostrophic transport in this channel shows important differences with others Canary Islands channels. From potential density and geostrophic velocity data we estimated the vertical diffusion coefficients and diapycnal diffusive fluxes, using a parameterization that depends of Richardson gradient number. In the center of the channel and close to La Gomera Island, we found higher values for these diffusive fluxes. Convergence and divergence of these fluxes requires further study so that we can draw conclusions about its impact on the distribution of nutrients in the study area and its impact in marine ecosystems. This work is being used in research projects TRAMIC and PROMECA.

Improved parameter inference in catchment models: 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuczera, George

1983-10-01

A Bayesian methodology is developed to evaluate parameter uncertainty in catchment models fitted to a hydrologic response such as runoff, the goal being to improve the chance of successful regionalization. The catchment model is posed as a nonlinear regression model with stochastic errors possibly being both autocorrelated and heteroscedastic. The end result of this methodology, which may use Box-Cox power transformations and ARMA error models, is the posterior distribution, which summarizes what is known about the catchment model parameters. This can be simplified to a multivariate normal provided a linearization in parameter space is acceptable; means of checking and improving this assumption are discussed. The posterior standard deviations give a direct measure of parameter uncertainty, and study of the posterior correlation matrix can indicate what kinds of data are required to improve the precision of poorly determined parameters. Finally, a case study involving a nine-parameter catchment model fitted to monthly runoff and soil moisture data is presented. It is shown that use of ordinary least squares when its underlying error assumptions are violated gives an erroneous description of parameter uncertainty.

Atmospheric mold spore counts in relation to meteorological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katial, R. K.; Zhang, Yiming; Jones, Richard H.; Dyer, Philip D.

Fungal spore counts of Cladosporium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum were studied during 8 years in Denver, Colorado. Fungal spore counts were obtained daily during the pollinating season by a Rotorod sampler. Weather data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Daily averages of temperature, relative humidity, daily precipitation, barometric pressure, and wind speed were studied. A time series analysis was performed on the data to mathematically model the spore counts in relation to weather parameters. Using SAS PROC ARIMA software, a regression analysis was performed, regressing the spore counts on the weather variables assuming an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error structure. Cladosporium was found to be positively correlated (P<0.02) with average daily temperature, relative humidity, and negatively correlated with precipitation. Alternaria and Epicoccum did not show increased predictability with weather variables. A mathematical model was derived for Cladosporium spore counts using the annual seasonal cycle and significant weather variables. The model for Alternaria and Epicoccum incorporated the annual seasonal cycle. Fungal spore counts can be modeled by time series analysis and related to meteorological parameters controlling for seasonallity; this modeling can provide estimates of exposure to fungal aeroallergens.

Modelling volatility recurrence intervals in the Chinese commodity futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Weijie; Wang, Zhengxin; Guo, Haiming

2016-09-01

The law of extreme event occurrence attracts much research. The volatility recurrence intervals of Chinese commodity futures market prices are studied: the results show that the probability distributions of the scaled volatility recurrence intervals have a uniform scaling curve for different thresholds q. So we can deduce the probability distribution of extreme events from normal events. The tail of a scaling curve can be well fitted by a Weibull form, which is significance-tested by KS measures. Both short-term and long-term memories are present in the recurrence intervals with different thresholds q, which denotes that the recurrence intervals can be predicted. In addition, similar to volatility, volatility recurrence intervals also have clustering features. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we artificially synthesise ARMA, GARCH-class sequences similar to the original data, and find out the reason behind the clustering. The larger the parameter d of the FIGARCH model, the stronger the clustering effect is. Finally, we use the Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Conditional Duration model (FIACD) to analyse the recurrence interval characteristics. The results indicated that the FIACD model may provide a method to analyse volatility recurrence intervals.

Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

2013-07-01

The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

A measurement fusion method for nonlinear system identification using a cooperative learning algorithm.

PubMed

Xia, Youshen; Kamel, Mohamed S

2007-06-01

Identification of a general nonlinear noisy system viewed as an estimation of a predictor function is studied in this article. A measurement fusion method for the predictor function estimate is proposed. In the proposed scheme, observed data are first fused by using an optimal fusion technique, and then the optimal fused data are incorporated in a nonlinear function estimator based on a robust least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM). A cooperative learning algorithm is proposed to implement the proposed measurement fusion method. Compared with related identification methods, the proposed method can minimize both the approximation error and the noise error. The performance analysis shows that the proposed optimal measurement fusion function estimate has a smaller mean square error than the LS-SVM function estimate. Moreover, the proposed cooperative learning algorithm can converge globally to the optimal measurement fusion function estimate. Finally, the proposed measurement fusion method is applied to ARMA signal and spatial temporal signal modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed measurement fusion method can provide a more accurate model.

Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling.

PubMed

Schuurman, Noémi K; Houtveen, Jan H; Hamaker, Ellen L

2015-01-01

Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30-50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters.

The Variation of Catalyst and Carrier Gas on Anisole Deoxygenation Reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariyani, D.; Dwi Nugrahaningtyas, Khoirina; Heraldy, E.

2018-03-01

This research aims to determine the best catalyst and carrier gas in anisole deoxygenation reaction. The reaction was carried out over a flow system with a variation of catalyst CoMo A (CoMo/USY reduction), CoMo B (CoMo/USY oxidation-reduction), and CoMo C (CoMo/ZAA oxidation-reduction). In addition, variation of carrier gas nitrogen and hydrogen was investigated. The result was analyzed using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectroscopy (GC-MS). The deoxygenation anisole result showed that CoMo A catalyst with hydrogen as the carrier gas has the highest total product yield (50.72 %), intermediate product yield (38.49 % in phenol and 6.99 % in benzaldehyde), and deoxygenation yield (5.24 %). The CoMo C catalyst exhibited the most selective deoxygenation product. The nitrogen carrier gas with the CoMo C catalyst has the best selectivity of benzene product (93.92 %).

3D digital image processing for biofilm quantification from confocal laser scanning microscopy: Multidimensional statistical analysis of biofilm modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielinski, Jerzy S.

The dramatic increase in number and volume of digital images produced in medical diagnostics, and the escalating demand for rapid access to these relevant medical data, along with the need for interpretation and retrieval has become of paramount importance to a modern healthcare system. Therefore, there is an ever growing need for processed, interpreted and saved images of various types. Due to the high cost and unreliability of human-dependent image analysis, it is necessary to develop an automated method for feature extraction, using sophisticated mathematical algorithms and reasoning. This work is focused on digital image signal processing of biological and biomedical data in one- two- and three-dimensional space. Methods and algorithms presented in this work were used to acquire data from genomic sequences, breast cancer, and biofilm images. One-dimensional analysis was applied to DNA sequences which were presented as a non-stationary sequence and modeled by a time-dependent autoregressive moving average (TD-ARMA) model. Two-dimensional analyses used 2D-ARMA model and applied it to detect breast cancer from x-ray mammograms or ultrasound images. Three-dimensional detection and classification techniques were applied to biofilm images acquired using confocal laser scanning microscopy. Modern medical images are geometrically arranged arrays of data. The broadening scope of imaging as a way to organize our observations of the biophysical world has led to a dramatic increase in our ability to apply new processing techniques and to combine multiple channels of data into sophisticated and complex mathematical models of physiological function and dysfunction. With explosion of the amount of data produced in a field of biomedicine, it is crucial to be able to construct accurate mathematical models of the data at hand. Two main purposes of signal modeling are: data size conservation and parameter extraction. Specifically, in biomedical imaging we have four key problems that were addressed in this work: (i) registration, i.e. automated methods of data acquisition and the ability to align multiple data sets with each other; (ii) visualization and reconstruction, i.e. the environment in which registered data sets can be displayed on a plane or in multidimensional space; (iii) segmentation, i.e. automated and semi-automated methods to create models of relevant anatomy from images; (iv) simulation and prediction, i.e. techniques that can be used to simulate growth end evolution of researched phenomenon. Mathematical models can not only be used to verify experimental findings, but also to make qualitative and quantitative predictions, that might serve as guidelines for the future development of technology and/or treatment.

The English as a Foreign Language/Lingua Franca Debate: Sensitising Teachers of English as a Foreign Language towards Teaching English as a Lingua Franca (El debate del inglés como lengua extranjera o como lengua franca: sensibilización de docentes de inglés como lengua extranjera hacia la enseñanza del inglés como lengua franca)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mansfield, Gillian; Poppi, Franca

2012-01-01

The function of English as a lingua franca for communication needs rethinking in the teaching of English as a foreign language classroom as a consequence of globalisation. The present contribution is an empirical study carried out in an Italian university environment which aims to show how teachers should take on board awareness raising activities…

High-energy asymmetric supercapacitors based on free-standing hierarchical Co-Mo-S nanosheets with enhanced cycling stability.

PubMed

Balamurugan, Jayaraman; Li, Chao; Peera, Shaik Gouse; Kim, Nam Hoon; Lee, Joong Hee

2017-09-21

Layered transition metal sulfides (TMS) are emerging as advanced materials for energy storage and conversion applications. In this work, we report a facile and cost-effective anion exchange technique to fabricate a layered, multifaceted, free standing, ultra-thin ternary cobalt molybdenum sulfide nanosheet (Co-Mo-S NS) architecture grown on a 3D porous Ni foam substrate. The unique Co-Mo layered double hydroxides are first synthesized as precursors and consequently transformed into ultra-thin Co-Mo-S NS. When employed as an electrode for supercapacitors, the Co-Mo-S NS delivered an ultra-high specific capacitance of 2343 F g -1 at a current density of 1 mA cm -2 with tremendous rate capability and extraordinary cycling performance (96.6% capacitance retention after 20 000 cycles). Furthermore, assembled Co-Mo-S/nitrogen doped graphene nanosheets (NGNS) in an asymmetric supercapacitor (ASC) device delivered an excellent energy density of 89.6 Wh kg -1 , an amazing power density of 20.07 kW kg -1 , and superior cycling performance (86.8% capacitance retention after 50 000 cycles). Such exceptional electrochemical performance of Co-Mo-S NS is ascribed to the good electrical contact with the 3D Ni foam, ultra-high contact area with the electrolyte, and enhanced architectural softening during the charging/discharging process. It is expected that the fabricated, unique, ultra-thin Co-Mo-S NS have great potential for future energy storage devices.

A sup 57 Co Moessbauer emission spectrometric study of some supported CoMo hydrodesulfurization catalysts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veen, J.A.R. van; Hendriks, P.A.J.M.; Beens, H.

1992-01-01

A suite of 11 CoMo/Al{sub 2}O{sub 4} (and one CoMo/SiO{sub 2}) catalysts has been prepared employing four preparation routes, viz. one sequential-impregnation route and three different coimpregnation routes. Speciation of the Co present in the oxidic precursors (octahedral vs tetrahedral Co) and in the activated, sulfided catalysts (CoMoS, Co{sub 9}S{sub 8}, and unsulfided Co) was effected with the aid of {sup 57}Co Moessbauer emission spectroscopy (MES). A linear relation between the thiophene-hydrodesulfurization (HDS) activity and wt% Co-in-CoMoS was observed for each preparation route, but no unique correlation was found to exist. This was traced to the fact that the preparationmore » routes differ in the amount of CoMoS I and CoMoS II they produce in the activated catalyst. Although these two phases differ in specific activity, CoMoS II being twice as active in thiophene HDS as CoMoS I, they cannot be distinguished on the basis of their Moessbauer parameters. It appears that octahedral Co is easier to sulfide than tetrahedral Co, but a substantial fraction of the latter is also found to be capable of entering CoMoS upon sulfidation. The reduced effectiveness of high-loading catalysts is traced to their being prone to CoMoO{sub 4} formation in the calcination step. A rationalization of this behavior is offered.« less

Random Process Simulation for stochastic fatigue analysis. Ph.D. Thesis - Rice Univ., Houston, Tex.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, Curtis E.

1988-01-01

A simulation technique is described which directly synthesizes the extrema of a random process and is more efficient than the Gaussian simulation method. Such a technique is particularly useful in stochastic fatigue analysis because the required stress range moment E(R sup m), is a function only of the extrema of the random stress process. The family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models is reviewed and an autoregressive model is presented for modeling the extrema of any random process which has a unimodal power spectral density (psd). The proposed autoregressive technique is found to produce rainflow stress range moments which compare favorably with those computed by the Gaussian technique and to average 11.7 times faster than the Gaussian technique. The autoregressive technique is also adapted for processes having bimodal psd's. The adaptation involves using two autoregressive processes to simulate the extrema due to each mode and the superposition of these two extrema sequences. The proposed autoregressive superposition technique is 9 to 13 times faster than the Gaussian technique and produces comparable values for E(R sup m) for bimodal psd's having the frequency of one mode at least 2.5 times that of the other mode.

Liquid-vapor equilibrium and interfacial properties of square wells in two dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armas-Pérez, Julio C.; Quintana-H, Jacqueline; Chapela, Gustavo A.

2013-01-01

Liquid-vapor coexistence and interfacial properties of square wells in two dimensions are calculated. Orthobaric densities, vapor pressures, surface tensions, and interfacial thicknesses are reported. Results are presented for a series of potential widths λ* = 1.4, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, and 5, where λ* is given in units of the hard core diameter σ. Critical and triple points are explored. No critical point was found for λ* < 1.4. Corresponding states principle analysis is performed for the whole series. For λ* = 1.4 and 1.5 evidence is presented that at an intermediate temperature between the critical and the triple point temperatures the liquid branch becomes an amorphous solid. This point is recognized in Armas-Pérez et al. [unpublished] as a hexatic phase transition. It is located at reduced temperatures T* = 0.47 and 0.35 for λ* = 1.4 and 1.5, respectively. Properties such as the surface tension, vapor pressure, and interfacial thickness do not present any discontinuity at these points. This amorphous solid branch does not follow the corresponding state principle, which is only applied to liquids and gases.

Laboratory for Engineering Man/Machine Systems (LEMS): System identification, model reduction and deconvolution filtering using Fourier based modulating signals and high order statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Jianqiang

1992-01-01

Several important problems in the fields of signal processing and model identification, such as system structure identification, frequency response determination, high order model reduction, high resolution frequency analysis, deconvolution filtering, and etc. Each of these topics involves a wide range of applications and has received considerable attention. Using the Fourier based sinusoidal modulating signals, it is shown that a discrete autoregressive model can be constructed for the least squares identification of continuous systems. Some identification algorithms are presented for both SISO and MIMO systems frequency response determination using only transient data. Also, several new schemes for model reduction were developed. Based upon the complex sinusoidal modulating signals, a parametric least squares algorithm for high resolution frequency estimation is proposed. Numerical examples show that the proposed algorithm gives better performance than the usual. Also, the problem was studied of deconvolution and parameter identification of a general noncausal nonminimum phase ARMA system driven by non-Gaussian stationary random processes. Algorithms are introduced for inverse cumulant estimation, both in the frequency domain via the FFT algorithms and in the domain via the least squares algorithm.

Reliability prediction of ontology-based service compositions using Petri net and time series models.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Xia, Yunni; Luo, Xin

2014-01-01

OWL-S, one of the most important Semantic Web service ontologies proposed to date, provides a core ontological framework and guidelines for describing the properties and capabilities of their web services in an unambiguous, computer interpretable form. Predicting the reliability of composite service processes specified in OWL-S allows service users to decide whether the process meets the quantitative quality requirement. In this study, we consider the runtime quality of services to be fluctuating and introduce a dynamic framework to predict the runtime reliability of services specified in OWL-S, employing the Non-Markovian stochastic Petri net (NMSPN) and the time series model. The framework includes the following steps: obtaining the historical response times series of individual service components; fitting these series with a autoregressive-moving-average-model (ARMA for short) and predicting the future firing rates of service components; mapping the OWL-S process into a NMSPN model; employing the predicted firing rates as the model input of NMSPN and calculating the normal completion probability as the reliability estimate. In the case study, a comparison between the static model and our approach based on experimental data is presented and it is shown that our approach achieves higher prediction accuracy.

Towards smart energy systems: application of kernel machine regression for medium term electricity load forecasting.

PubMed

Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Bargiotas, Dimitrios; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H

2016-01-01

Integration of energy systems with information technologies has facilitated the realization of smart energy systems that utilize information to optimize system operation. To that end, crucial in optimizing energy system operation is the accurate, ahead-of-time forecasting of load demand. In particular, load forecasting allows planning of system expansion, and decision making for enhancing system safety and reliability. In this paper, the application of two types of kernel machines for medium term load forecasting (MTLF) is presented and their performance is recorded based on a set of historical electricity load demand data. The two kernel machine models and more specifically Gaussian process regression (GPR) and relevance vector regression (RVR) are utilized for making predictions over future load demand. Both models, i.e., GPR and RVR, are equipped with a Gaussian kernel and are tested on daily predictions for a 30-day-ahead horizon taken from the New England Area. Furthermore, their performance is compared to the ARMA(2,2) model with respect to mean average percentage error and squared correlation coefficient. Results demonstrate the superiority of RVR over the other forecasting models in performing MTLF.

Intriguing radiation signatures at aviation altitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. K.

2017-12-01

The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) project captures absorbed dose in Si with a fleet of 6 instruments on research aircraft. These dose rates are then converted to an effective dose rate. Over 325 flights since 2013 have captured global radiation at nearly all altitudes and latitudes. The radiation is predominantly caused by atmospheric neutrons and protons from galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). We have not yet obtained dose from solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which are rather rare. On 13 flights we have also measured dose rates that are up to twice the GCR background for approximately a half an hour per event while flying at higher magnetic latitudes near 60 degrees. The timing of the radiation appears to be coincident with periods of mild geomagnetic disturbances while flying above 10 km at L-shells of 3 to 6. The radiation source is best modeled as secondary gamma-ray photons caused by precipitating ultra-relativistic electrons from the outer Van Allen radiation belt originating as loss cone electrons scattered by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves. We describe the observations and the lines of evidence for this intriguing new radiation source relevant to aviation crew and frequent flyers.

A comparison of performance of several artificial intelligence methods for forecasting monthly discharge time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-Chuan; Chau, Kwok-Wing; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Qiu, Lin

2009-08-01

SummaryDeveloping a hydrological forecasting model based on past records is crucial to effective hydropower reservoir management and scheduling. Traditionally, time series analysis and modeling is used for building mathematical models to generate hydrologic records in hydrology and water resources. Artificial intelligence (AI), as a branch of computer science, is capable of analyzing long-series and large-scale hydrological data. In recent years, it is one of front issues to apply AI technology to the hydrological forecasting modeling. In this paper, autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANNs) approaches, adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques, genetic programming (GP) models and support vector machine (SVM) method are examined using the long-term observations of monthly river flow discharges. The four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation ( R), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( E), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. Two case study river sites are also provided to illustrate their respective performances. The results indicate that the best performance can be obtained by ANFIS, GP and SVM, in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation phases.

An intelligent sales forecasting system through integration of artificial neural networks and fuzzy neural networks with fuzzy weight elimination.

PubMed

Kuo, R J; Wu, P; Wang, C P

2002-09-01

Sales forecasting plays a very prominent role in business strategy. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average (ARMA). However, sales forecasting is very complicated owing to influence by internal and external environments. Recently, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have also been applied in sales forecasting since their promising performances in the areas of control and pattern recognition. However, further improvement is still necessary since unique circumstances, e.g. promotion, cause a sudden change in the sales pattern. Thus, this study utilizes a proposed fuzzy neural network (FNN), which is able to eliminate the unimportant weights, for the sake of learning fuzzy IF-THEN rules obtained from the marketing experts with respect to promotion. The result from FNN is further integrated with the time series data through an ANN. Both the simulated and real-world problem results show that FNN with weight elimination can have lower training error compared with the regular FNN. Besides, real-world problem results also indicate that the proposed estimation system outperforms the conventional statistical method and single ANN in accuracy.

Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

PubMed Central

Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

2015-01-01

Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

Multiparametric fat-water separation method for fast chemical-shift imaging guidance of thermal therapies.

PubMed

Lin, Jonathan S; Hwang, Ken-Pin; Jackson, Edward F; Hazle, John D; Stafford, R Jason; Taylor, Brian A

2013-10-01

A k-means-based classification algorithm is investigated to assess suitability for rapidly separating and classifying fat/water spectral peaks from a fast chemical shift imaging technique for magnetic resonance temperature imaging. Algorithm testing is performed in simulated mathematical phantoms and agar gel phantoms containing mixed fat/water regions. Proton resonance frequencies (PRFs), apparent spin-spin relaxation (T2*) times, and T1-weighted (T1-W) amplitude values were calculated for each voxel using a single-peak autoregressive moving average (ARMA) signal model. These parameters were then used as criteria for k-means sorting, with the results used to determine PRF ranges of each chemical species cluster for further classification. To detect the presence of secondary chemical species, spectral parameters were recalculated when needed using a two-peak ARMA signal model during the subsequent classification steps. Mathematical phantom simulations involved the modulation of signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), maximum PRF shift (MPS) values, analysis window sizes, and frequency expansion factor sizes in order to characterize the algorithm performance across a variety of conditions. In agar, images were collected on a 1.5T clinical MR scanner using acquisition parameters close to simulation, and algorithm performance was assessed by comparing classification results to manually segmented maps of the fat/water regions. Performance was characterized quantitatively using the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), sensitivity, and specificity. The simulated mathematical phantom experiments demonstrated good fat/water separation depending on conditions, specifically high SNR, moderate MPS value, small analysis window size, and low but nonzero frequency expansion factor size. Physical phantom results demonstrated good identification for both water (0.997 ± 0.001, 0.999 ± 0.001, and 0.986 ± 0.001 for DSC, sensitivity, and specificity, respectively) and fat (0.763 ± 0.006, 0.980 ± 0.004, and 0.941 ± 0.002 for DSC, sensitivity, and specificity, respectively). Temperature uncertainties, based on PRF uncertainties from a 5 × 5-voxel ROI, were 0.342 and 0.351°C for pure and mixed fat/water regions, respectively. Algorithm speed was tested using 25 × 25-voxel and whole image ROIs containing both fat and water, resulting in average processing times per acquisition of 2.00 ± 0.07 s and 146 ± 1 s, respectively, using uncompiled MATLAB scripts running on a shared CPU server with eight Intel Xeon(TM) E5640 quad-core processors (2.66 GHz, 12 MB cache) and 12 GB RAM. Results from both the mathematical and physical phantom suggest the k-means-based classification algorithm could be useful for rapid, dynamic imaging in an ROI for thermal interventions. Successful separation of fat/water information would aid in reducing errors from the nontemperature sensitive fat PRF, as well as potentially facilitate using fat as an internal reference for PRF shift thermometry when appropriate. Additionally, the T1-W or R2* signals may be used for monitoring temperature in surrounding adipose tissue.

CoMoS2/rGO/C3N4 ternary heterojunctions catalysts with high photocatalytic activity and stability for hydrogen evolution under visible light irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xuejun; Si, Zhichun; Liu, Liping; Wang, Zehao; Chen, Ze; Ran, Rui; He, Yonghong; Weng, Duan

2018-03-01

Noble metal free MoS2/g-C3N4 catalyst has attracted intense attentions for visible light photocatalytic hydrogen evolution as a result of its earth abundance, low cost and unique heterojunctions stacked with two dimensional sheets. However, the low charge separation efficiency resulted from the poor conductivity of g-C3N4 and MoS2, and lack of abundant active sites from coordinative unsaturated atoms in MoS2, restricts the photocatalytic hydrogen evolution activity and stability enhancement of MoS2/C3N4 composite catalysts. Herein, CoMoS2/rGO/g-C3N4 catalysts with ternary heterojunctions are prepared by facile solvothermal method, which exhibit high visible light photocatalytic activity and stability for hydrogen evolution. The optimal hydrogen evolution rate of CoMoS2/rGO/g-C3N4 catalysts is 684 μmol g-1 h-1 when the content of CoMoS2 is 2% and the content of rGO is 0.5%. The stability of CoMoS2/rGO/C3N4 catalysts just decrease about 3% after 4 cycling runs for 16 h. The good catalytic performances of catalysts are attributed to the synergistic effect among the g-C3N4 nanosheets, rGO nanosheets and CoMoS2 nanosheets. The high conductivity of rGO nanosheets enhances the electron-hole separation and charge transfer, and Co doping increases the active sites for hydrogen evolution due to the increase of unsaturated atoms in CoMoS2 nanosheets.

COMO: a numerical model for predicting furnace performance in axisymmetric geometries. Volume 1. Technical summary. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fiveland, W.A.; Oberjohn, W.J.; Cornelius, D.K.

1985-12-01

This report summarizes the work conducted during a 30-month contract with the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Pittsburgh Energy Technology Center (PETC). The general objective is to develop and verify a computer code capable of modeling the major aspects of pulverized coal combustion. Achieving this objective will lead to design methods applicable to industrial and utility furnaces. The combustion model (COMO) is based mainly on an existing Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) computer program. The model consists of a number of relatively independent modules that represent the major processes involved in pulverized coal combustion: flow, heterogeneous and homogeneousmore » chemical reaction, and heat transfer. As models are improved or as new ones are developed, this modular structure allows portions of the COMO model to be updated with minimal impact on the remainder of the program. The report consists of two volumes. This volume (Volume 1) contains a technical summary of the COMO model, results of predictions for gas phase combustion, pulverized coal combustion, and a detailed description of the COMO model. Volume 2 is the Users Guide for COMO and contains detailed instructions for preparing the input data and a description of the program output. Several example cases have been included to aid the user in usage of the computer program for pulverized coal applications. 66 refs., 41 figs., 21 tabs.« less

Múltiples estados de desorden en el etanol sólido

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Perea, R.

El diagrama de fases del etanol por debajo de los 169 K será presentado. Se mostrará que el etanol puede solidificarse en tres fases con diversos niveles de desorden,(como un vidrio(G), como un vidrio orientacional (OG) y como un cristal de fase rotora (RP)) además de en una fase totalmente cristalina. Las estructuras de estas tres fases serán presentadas tal y como se deducen a partir de diversas medidas de difracción de neutrones al igual que las proporciones de los isómeros de dicho material en las fases desordenadas y se compararán con los resultados de la fase cristalina y del líquido superenfriado. Igualmente diversas medidas sobre su dinámica serán presentadas, tanto de dispersión de neutrones, como de capacidad calorífica y de medidas dieléctricas y comparadas con modelos teóricos y simulaciones para tratar de explicar los procesos de relajación observados y las transiciones entre las diversas fases.

PubMed

Silva, Cristiane Gonçalves da; Santos, Alessandro Oliveira; Licciardi, Daniele Carli; Paiva, Vera; Parker, Richard

2008-01-01

Esse artigo descreve como jovens religiosos e autoridades religiosas de sua comunidade compreendem a sexualidade, considerando suas experiências pessoais e como membros de comunidades religiosas. A análise pretende contribuir para que políticas públicas dedicadas à promoção da saúde sexual da juventude considerem a religiosidade, no contexto de um estado laico e da promoção do direito à prevenção. Foram realizadas 26 entrevistas abertas e semidirigidas em diferentes comunidades da região metropolitana da cidade de São Paulo (comunidades católicas, da umbanda, do candomblé e de diferentes denominações evangélicas) sobre iniciação sexual, casamento, gravidez, contracepção e prevenção das DST/Aids, homossexualidade, aborto e direitos humanos. Observou-se como jovens e autoridades religiosas convivem com a tensão entre tradição e modernidade e os distintos discursos sobre a sexualidade. Como sujeitos religiosos (do discurso religioso) e sujeitos sexuais (de discursos sobre sexualidade), devem ser incorporados pelos programas como sujeitos de direito nos termos de sua religiosidade.

Como Podar Arboles (Spanish Version), How to Prune Trees

Treesearch

Maureen McDonough; Russell; Lisa Burban; Lee Nancarrow; United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Area, State and Private Forestry

2004-01-01

Introduccion, El proposito de la poda es tener plantas fuertes, sanas y atractivas. Esta meta se puede alcanzar sabiendo como, cuando y por que podar, y siguiendo unos cuantos principios muy sencillos.

Religiosidade, juventude e sexualidade: entre a autonomia e a rigidez1

PubMed Central

Silva, Cristiane Gonçalves da; Santos, Alessandro Oliveira; Licciardi, Daniele Carli; Paiva, Vera; Parker, Richard

2009-01-01

Esse artigo descreve como jovens religiosos e autoridades religiosas de sua comunidade compreendem a sexualidade, considerando suas experiências pessoais e como membros de comunidades religiosas. A análise pretende contribuir para que políticas públicas dedicadas à promoção da saúde sexual da juventude considerem a religiosidade, no contexto de um estado laico e da promoção do direito à prevenção. Foram realizadas 26 entrevistas abertas e semidirigidas em diferentes comunidades da região metropolitana da cidade de São Paulo (comunidades católicas, da umbanda, do candomblé e de diferentes denominações evangélicas) sobre iniciação sexual, casamento, gravidez, contracepção e prevenção das DST/Aids, homossexualidade, aborto e direitos humanos. Observou-se como jovens e autoridades religiosas convivem com a tensão entre tradição e modernidade e os distintos discursos sobre a sexualidade. Como sujeitos religiosos (do discurso religioso) e sujeitos sexuais (de discursos sobre sexualidade), devem ser incorporados pelos programas como sujeitos de direito nos termos de sua religiosidade. PMID:21886456

Microwave effects on NiMoS and CoMoS single-sheet catalysts.

PubMed

Borges, I; Silva, Alexander M; Modesto-Costa, Lucas

2018-05-04

Single-sheet nanoclusters of MoS 2 , NiMoS or CoMoS are widely used in hydrodesulfurization (HDS) catalysis in the petroleum industry. In HDS reactions under microwave irradiation, experiments indirectly pointed out that for pristine MoS 2 reaction rates are accelerated because hot spots are generated on the catalyst bed. In this work, we investigated NiMoS and CoMoS isolated single-sheet substituted catalysts before and after thiophene adsorption focusing on quantifying the effect of microwave irradiation. For that purpose, density functional theory (DFT) molecular charge densities of each system were decomposed according to the distributed multipole analysis (DMA) of Stone. Site dipole values of each system were directly associated with a larger or smaller interaction with the microwave field according to a proposed general approach. We showed that microwave enhancement of HDS reaction rates can occur more efficiently in the CoMoS and NiMoS promoted clusters compared to pristine MoS 2 in the following order: CoMoS > NiMoS > MoS 2 . The atomic origin of the catalyst hot spots induced by microwaves was clearly established in the promoted clusters.

Dicloruro de paraquat

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

El dicloruro de paraquat, comúnmente conocido como “paraquat,” es uno de los herbicidas registrados de mayor uso en los Estados Unidos. El paraquat también se conoce como Gramaxone (un producto popular de uso final

Symmetric co-movement between Malaysia and Japan stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

2017-04-01

The copula approach is a flexible tool known to capture linear, nonlinear, symmetric and asymmetric dependence between two or more random variables. It is often used as a co-movement measure between stock market returns. The information obtained from copulas such as the level of association of financial market during normal and bullish and bearish markets phases are useful for investment strategies and risk management. However, the study of co-movement between Malaysia and Japan markets are limited, especially using copulas. Hence, we aim to investigate the dependence structure between Malaysia and Japan capital markets for the period spanning from 2000 to 2012. In this study, we showed that the bivariate normal distribution is not suitable as the bivariate distribution or to present the dependence between Malaysia and Japan markets. Instead, Gaussian or normal copula was found a good fit to represent the dependence. From our findings, it can be concluded that simple distribution fitting such as bivariate normal distribution does not suit financial time series data, whose characteristics are often leptokurtic. The nature of the data is treated by ARMA-GARCH with heavy tail distributions and these can be associated with copula functions. Regarding the dependence structure between Malaysia and Japan markets, the findings suggest that both markets co-move concurrently during normal periods.

Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions based on a hybrid of mixed data sampling regression model and back propagation neural network in the USA.

PubMed

Zhao, Xin; Han, Meng; Ding, Lili; Calin, Adrian Cantemir

2018-01-01

The accurate forecast of carbon dioxide emissions is critical for policy makers to take proper measures to establish a low carbon society. This paper discusses a hybrid of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model and BP (back propagation) neural network (MIDAS-BP model) to forecast carbon dioxide emissions. Such analysis uses mixed frequency data to study the effects of quarterly economic growth on annual carbon dioxide emissions. The forecasting ability of MIDAS-BP is remarkably better than MIDAS, ordinary least square (OLS), polynomial distributed lags (PDL), autoregressive distributed lags (ADL), and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The MIDAS-BP model is suitable for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions for both the short and longer term. This research is expected to influence the methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions by improving the forecast accuracy. Empirical results show that economic growth has both negative and positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions that last 15 quarters. Carbon dioxide emissions are also affected by their own change within 3 years. Therefore, there is a need for policy makers to explore an alternative way to develop the economy, especially applying new energy policies to establish a low carbon society.

Adaptive and accelerated tracking-learning-detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Pengyu; Li, Xin; Ding, Shaowen; Tian, Zunhua; Zhang, Xiaohu

2013-08-01

An improved online long-term visual tracking algorithm, named adaptive and accelerated TLD (AA-TLD) based on Tracking-Learning-Detection (TLD) which is a novel tracking framework has been introduced in this paper. The improvement focuses on two aspects, one is adaption, which makes the algorithm not dependent on the pre-defined scanning grids by online generating scale space, and the other is efficiency, which uses not only algorithm-level acceleration like scale prediction that employs auto-regression and moving average (ARMA) model to learn the object motion to lessen the detector's searching range and the fixed number of positive and negative samples that ensures a constant retrieving time, but also CPU and GPU parallel technology to achieve hardware acceleration. In addition, in order to obtain a better effect, some TLD's details are redesigned, which uses a weight including both normalized correlation coefficient and scale size to integrate results, and adjusts distance metric thresholds online. A contrastive experiment on success rate, center location error and execution time, is carried out to show a performance and efficiency upgrade over state-of-the-art TLD with partial TLD datasets and Shenzhou IX return capsule image sequences. The algorithm can be used in the field of video surveillance to meet the need of real-time video tracking.

Parameter interdependence and uncertainty induced by lumping in a hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, Mark R.; Doherty, John

2007-05-01

Throughout the world, watershed modeling is undertaken using lumped parameter hydrologic models that represent real-world processes in a manner that is at once abstract, but nevertheless relies on algorithms that reflect real-world processes and parameters that reflect real-world hydraulic properties. In most cases, values are assigned to the parameters of such models through calibration against flows at watershed outlets. One criterion by which the utility of the model and the success of the calibration process are judged is that realistic values are assigned to parameters through this process. This study employs regularization theory to examine the relationship between lumped parameters and corresponding real-world hydraulic properties. It demonstrates that any kind of parameter lumping or averaging can induce a substantial amount of "structural noise," which devices such as Box-Cox transformation of flows and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling of residuals are unlikely to render homoscedastic and uncorrelated. Furthermore, values estimated for lumped parameters are unlikely to represent average values of the hydraulic properties after which they are named and are often contaminated to a greater or lesser degree by the values of hydraulic properties which they do not purport to represent at all. As a result, the question of how rigidly they should be bounded during the parameter estimation process is still an open one.

Multiscale Granger causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faes, Luca; Nollo, Giandomenico; Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Marinazzo, Daniele

2017-10-01

In the study of complex physical and biological systems represented by multivariate stochastic processes, an issue of great relevance is the description of the system dynamics spanning multiple temporal scales. While methods to assess the dynamic complexity of individual processes at different time scales are well established, multiscale analysis of directed interactions has never been formalized theoretically, and empirical evaluations are complicated by practical issues such as filtering and downsampling. Here we extend the very popular measure of Granger causality (GC), a prominent tool for assessing directed lagged interactions between joint processes, to quantify information transfer across multiple time scales. We show that the multiscale processing of a vector autoregressive (AR) process introduces a moving average (MA) component, and describe how to represent the resulting ARMA process using state space (SS) models and to combine the SS model parameters for computing exact GC values at arbitrarily large time scales. We exploit the theoretical formulation to identify peculiar features of multiscale GC in basic AR processes, and demonstrate with numerical simulations the much larger estimation accuracy of the SS approach compared to pure AR modeling of filtered and downsampled data. The improved computational reliability is exploited to disclose meaningful multiscale patterns of information transfer between global temperature and carbon dioxide concentration time series, both in paleoclimate and in recent years.

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Wet tropospheric delays forecast based on Vienna Mapping Function time series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rzepecka, Zofia; Kalita, Jakub

2016-04-01

It is well known that the dry part of the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) is much easier to model than the wet part (ZTW). The aim of the research is applying stochastic modeling and prediction of ZTW using time series analysis tools. Application of time series analysis enables closer understanding of ZTW behavior as well as short-term prediction of future ZTW values. The ZTW data used for the studies were obtained from the GGOS service hold by Vienna technical University. The resolution of the data is six hours. ZTW for the years 2010 -2013 were adopted for the study. The International GNSS Service (IGS) permanent stations LAMA and GOPE, located in mid-latitudes, were admitted for the investigations. Initially the seasonal part was separated and modeled using periodic signals and frequency analysis. The prominent annual and semi-annual signals were removed using sines and consines functions. The autocorrelation of the resulting signal is significant for several days (20-30 samples). The residuals of this fitting were further analyzed and modeled with ARIMA processes. For both the stations optimal ARMA processes based on several criterions were obtained. On this basis predicted ZTW values were computed for one day ahead, leaving the white process residuals. Accuracy of the prediction can be estimated at about 3 cm.

Rock slope stability analysis along the North Carolina section of the Blue Ridge Parkway: Using a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate site data and digital geologic maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Latham, R.S.; Wooten, R.M.; Cattanach, B.L.; Merschat, C.E.; Bozdog, G.N.

2009-01-01

In 2008, the North Carolina Geological Survey (NCGS) completed a five-year geologic and geohazards inventory of the 406-km long North Carolina segment of the Blue Ridge Parkway (BRP). The ArcGIS??? format deliverables for rock slopes include a slope movement and slope movement deposit database and maps and site-specific rock slope stability assessments at 158 locations. Database entries for known and potential rock slope failures include: location data, failure modes and dimensions, activity dates and levels, structural and lithologic data, the occurrence of sulfide minerals and acid-producing potential test results. Rock slope stability assessments include photographs of the rock cuts and show locations and orientations of rock data, seepage zones, and kinematic stability analyses. Assigned preliminary geologic hazard ratings of low, moderate and high indicate the generalized relative probability of rock fall and/or rock slide activity at a given location. Statistics compiled based on the database indicate some general patterns within the data. This information provides the National Park Service with tools that can aid in emergency preparedness, and in budgeting mitigation, maintenance and repair measures. Copyright 2009 ARMA, American Rock Mechanics Association.

Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

PubMed

Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

2015-01-01

Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Application of Time-series Model to Predict Groundwater Quality Parameters for Agriculture: (Plain Mehran Case Study)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrdad Mirsanjari, Mir; Mohammadyari, Fatemeh

2018-03-01

Underground water is regarded as considerable water source which is mainly available in arid and semi arid with deficient surface water source. Forecasting of hydrological variables are suitable tools in water resources management. On the other hand, time series concepts is considered efficient means in forecasting process of water management. In this study the data including qualitative parameters (electrical conductivity and sodium adsorption ratio) of 17 underground water wells in Mehran Plain has been used to model the trend of parameters change over time. Using determined model, the qualitative parameters of groundwater is predicted for the next seven years. Data from 2003 to 2016 has been collected and were fitted by AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA models. Afterward, the best model is determined using information criterion or Akaike (AIC) and correlation coefficient. After modeling parameters, the map of agricultural land use in 2016 and 2023 were generated and the changes between these years were studied. Based on the results, the average of predicted SAR (Sodium Adsorption Rate) in all wells in the year 2023 will increase compared to 2016. EC (Electrical Conductivity) average in the ninth and fifteenth holes and decreases in other wells will be increased. The results indicate that the quality of groundwater for Agriculture Plain Mehran will decline in seven years.

Reliability Prediction of Ontology-Based Service Compositions Using Petri Net and Time Series Models

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Xia, Yunni; Luo, Xin

2014-01-01

OWL-S, one of the most important Semantic Web service ontologies proposed to date, provides a core ontological framework and guidelines for describing the properties and capabilities of their web services in an unambiguous, computer interpretable form. Predicting the reliability of composite service processes specified in OWL-S allows service users to decide whether the process meets the quantitative quality requirement. In this study, we consider the runtime quality of services to be fluctuating and introduce a dynamic framework to predict the runtime reliability of services specified in OWL-S, employing the Non-Markovian stochastic Petri net (NMSPN) and the time series model. The framework includes the following steps: obtaining the historical response times series of individual service components; fitting these series with a autoregressive-moving-average-model (ARMA for short) and predicting the future firing rates of service components; mapping the OWL-S process into a NMSPN model; employing the predicted firing rates as the model input of NMSPN and calculating the normal completion probability as the reliability estimate. In the case study, a comparison between the static model and our approach based on experimental data is presented and it is shown that our approach achieves higher prediction accuracy. PMID:24688429

The detection of financial crisis using combination of volatility and markov switching models based on real output, domestic credit per GDP, and ICI indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Setianingrum, Meganisa

2018-05-01

Open economic system has not only provided ease for every country to interact with each other, but also make it easier to transmitted the crisis. Financial crisis that hit Indonesia in 1997-1998 and 2008 severely impacted the economy, thus a method to detect crisis is required. According to Kamisky et al. [6], crisis can be detected based on several financial indicators such as real output, domestic credit per Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Indonesia Composite Index (ICI). This research aims to determine the appropriate combination of volatility and Markov switching model to detect financial crisis in Indonesia based on the indicators. Volatility model used for modeling the unconstant-variance of ARMA. Markov switching is an alternative model of time series data with changed conditions in the data, or called state. In this research, we are using three assumption of states namely low volatility state, medium volatility state and high volatility state. The data of each indicator were taken from 1990 until 2016. The result of the study show that MS-ARCH(3,1) can be used to detect the financial crisis that hit Indonesia in 1997-1998 and 2008 based on real output, domestic credit per GDP, and ICI indicators.

Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselot, Pierre; Chebana, Fateh; Bélanger, Diane; St-Hilaire, André; Abdous, Belkacem; Gosselin, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

2018-07-01

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship.

Evolution of the Active Phase of CoMo/Al2O3 Catalysts under Industrial Conditions: a High-Pressure MES Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dugulan, A.I.; Overweg, A.R.; Craje, M.W.J.

2005-04-26

The behavior of CoMo/Al2O3 catalysts sulfided in H2S/H2 gas mixture, under industrial conditions, was investigated using Moessbauer emission spectroscopy (MES). An intermediate Co-Mo phase is formed after increasing the sulfidation pressure to 4 MPa, favoring the Co-Mo-S phase formation. An increase in the quadrupole splitting value of the Co-sulfide species after treatment at 573 K is proposed as a prerequisite for the formation of ideal Co-Mo-S structures.

Catalytic functionalities of supported sulfides. I. Effect of support and additives on the CoMo catalyst

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muralidhar, G.; Massoth, F.E.; Shabtai, J.

1984-01-01

C-S hydrogenolysis (HDS) of thiophene, hydrogenation (HYD) of 1-hexene, and hydrocracking (HCG) of 2,4,4-trimethyl-1-pentene, were used as separate model test reactions to differentiate and assess the catalytic functionalities of sulfided CoMo catalysts, and their dependence on the nature of the support and incorporation of additives. Rate constants and relative catalyst activities for these three reaction types were determined. HDS and HYD activities of CoMo supported on different types of Al/sub 2/O/sub 3/ were higher, while the HCG activity was lower compared with CoMo supported on SiO/sub 2/-Al/sub 2/O/sub 3/, SiO/sub 2/-MgO, or TiO/sub 2/. For SiO/sub 2/-Al/sub 2/O/sub 3/ supportsmore » both HDS and HYD activities decreased with increase in SiO/sub 2/ content from 10 to 75%, while HCG activity showed the opposite trend. Additives to a finished CoMo catalyst at 0.5% level caused variations in HDS and HCG activities, while HYD was essentially unaffected. HDS was promoted by NH/sub 4/HF/sub 2/ and NH/sub 4/Cl, but depressed by NaNO/sub 3/, Ca(NO/sub 3/)/sub 2/, and H/sub 3/BO/sub 3/. HCG was promoted by NH/sub 4/HF/sub 2/, NH/sub 4/Cl, and H/sub 3/BO/sub 3/. Additives at 5% level, prior to or after CoMo impregnation, showed a strong depressing effect on HDS and a lesser effect on HYD, while HCG was strongly promoted by NH/sub 4/HF/sub 2/, Ti isopropoxide, and H/sub 3/BO/sub 3/. The changes in catalytic functionalities are rationalized in terms of different interactions between CoMo phase, support, and additives. 3 tables, 1 figure.« less

Sistema Solar: de la observación de La Tierra a los planetas gigantes y sus lunas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, R.

La fotoquímica tiene un papel principal en la composición de las atmósferas planetarias. Se examinan diferentes procesos fotoquímicos tanto para atmósferas oxidadas como reductoras, poniendo un especial énfasis en los ciclos químicos más importantes. En este sentido, se presentan diferentes ciclos químicos capaces de producir hidrocarbonos y nitrilos en atmósferas reductoras, así como aquellos capaces de mantener las proporciones de mezcla de las moléculas que contienen oxígeno, tales como CO2, O2 y H2O. También se analizan otros procesos importantes tales como la condensación y procesos de sputtering y de sublimación que han de tenerse en cuenta cuando se realizan modelos sobre la composición atmosférica.

Identifying the fingerprints of the anthropogenic component of land use/land cover changes on regional climate of the USA high plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutiibwa, D.; Irmak, S.

2011-12-01

The majority of recent climate change studies have largely focused on detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcings of greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. However, there is growing evidence that land cover/land use (LULC) change can significantly impact atmospheric processes from local to regional weather and climate variability. Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of the land surfaces including albedo, energy balance, moisture-holding capacity of soil, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer, and ultimately impact the climate system. The challenge is to demonstrate that LULC changes produce a signal that can be discerned from natural climate noise. In this study, we attempt to detect the signature of anthropogenic forcing of LULC change on climate on regional scale. The signal projector investigated for detecting the signature of LULC changes on regional climate of the High Plains of the USA is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI is an indicator that captures short and long-term geographical distribution of vegetation surfaces. The study develops an enhanced signal processing procedure to maximize the signal to noise ratio by introducing a pre-filtering technique of ARMA processes on the investigated climate and signal variables, before applying the optimal fingerprinting technique to detect the signals of LULC changes on observed climate, temperature, in the High Plains. The intent is to filter out as much noise as possible while still retaining the essential features of the signal by making use of the known characteristics of the noise and the anticipated signal. The study discusses the approach of identifying and suppressing the autocorrelation in optimal fingerprint analysis by applying linear transformation of ARMA processes to the analysis variables. With the assumption that natural climate variability is a near stationary process, the pre-filters are developed to generate stationary residuals. The High Plains region although impacted by droughts over the last three decades has had an increase in agricultural lands, both irrigated and non-irrigated. The study shows that for the most part of the High Plains region there is significant influence of evaporative cooling on regional climate during the summer months. As the vegetation coverage increases coupled with increased in irrigation application, the regional daytime surface energy in summer is increasingly redistributed into latent heat flux which increases the effect of evaporative cooling on summer temperatures. We included the anthropogenic forcing of CO2 on regional climate with the main purpose of surpassing the radiative heating effect of greenhouse gases from natural climate noise, to enhance the LULC signal-to-noise ratio. The warming signal due to greenhouse gas forcing is observed to be weakest in the central part of the High Plains. The results showed that the CO2 signal in the region was weak or is being surpassed by the evaporative cooling effect.

78 FR 38287 - Bitterroot National Forest, Darby Ranger District, Como Forest Health Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-26

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Bitterroot National Forest, Darby Ranger District, Como Forest Health Project AGENCY: Forest Service. ACTION: Notice; Correction. SUMMARY: The Department of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service, Bitterroot National Forest, Darby Ranger District published a document in...

78 FR 36163 - Bitterroot National Forest, Darby Ranger District, Como Forest Health Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... Lake Como and Lost Horse Roads, about XX miles northwest of Darby in Ravalli County, Montana. The... Lost Horse Road, about three miles northwest of Darby, Montana (R22W,T4N, Sec. 13, 24, 25, 36; R21W,T4N...

Local full-thickness skin graft of the donor arm--a novel technique for the reduction of donor site morbidity in radial forearm free flap.

PubMed

Riecke, B; Assaf, A T; Heiland, M; Al-Dam, A; Gröbe, A; Blessmann, M; Wikner, J

2015-08-01

A novel technique to reduce donor site morbidity after radial forearm free flap (RFFF) harvest, using a local full-thickness skin graft (FTSG), is described. Thirty consecutive patients undergoing RFFF for head and neck reconstruction were enrolled in a prospective study. Donor site defect closure was performed with spindle-shaped FTSGs excised from the wavelike skin incision made for the vascular pedicle. Both the removal site of the FTSG on the volar forearm and the covered RFFF donor site healed uneventfully in 29 cases, with no impairment of function related to the skin graft. No skin graft failure and no exposure, tenting, or adherence of the flexor tendons occurred. All patients expressed satisfaction with postoperative pain, the functional outcome, and cosmetic appearance. Primary donor site defect closure could be achieved in all cases with the use of a local FTSG. This graft can be gained at the access incision for the vascular pedicle, avoids expansion of the incision for a local flap technique, and does not prolong wound healing, and thus reduces both donor site and graft site morbidity of the RFFF. This technique leads to an inconspicuous aesthetic result with no apparent relevant functional deficits and avoids the need for a second donor site. Copyright © 2015 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparative simulation study of AR(1) estimators in short time series.

PubMed

Krone, Tanja; Albers, Casper J; Timmerman, Marieke E

2017-01-01

Various estimators of the autoregressive model exist. We compare their performance in estimating the autocorrelation in short time series. In Study 1, under correct model specification, we compare the frequentist r 1 estimator, C-statistic, ordinary least squares estimator (OLS) and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and a Bayesian method, considering flat (B f ) and symmetrized reference (B sr ) priors. In a completely crossed experimental design we vary lengths of time series (i.e., T = 10, 25, 40, 50 and 100) and autocorrelation (from -0.90 to 0.90 with steps of 0.10). The results show a lowest bias for the B sr , and a lowest variability for r 1 . The power in different conditions is highest for B sr and OLS. For T = 10, the absolute performance of all measurements is poor, as expected. In Study 2, we study robustness of the methods through misspecification by generating the data according to an ARMA(1,1) model, but still analysing the data with an AR(1) model. We use the two methods with the lowest bias for this study, i.e., B sr and MLE. The bias gets larger when the non-modelled moving average parameter becomes larger. Both the variability and power show dependency on the non-modelled parameter. The differences between the two estimation methods are negligible for all measurements.

Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality.

PubMed

Masselot, Pierre; Chebana, Fateh; Bélanger, Diane; St-Hilaire, André; Abdous, Belkacem; Gosselin, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B M J

2018-07-01

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dissemination of a Multidrug-Resistant VIM-1- and CMY-99-Producing Proteus mirabilis Clone in Bulgaria.

PubMed

Markovska, Rumyana; Schneider, Ines; Keuleyan, Emma; Ivanova, Dobrinka; Lesseva, Magdalena; Stoeva, Temenuga; Sredkova, Mariya; Bauernfeind, Adolf; Mitov, Ivan

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the beta-lactamases and the molecular epidemiology of 19 clinically significant isolates of Proteus mirabilis with decreased susceptibility to imipenem, which have been collected from seven hospitals, located in different Bulgarian towns (Sofia, Varna, and Pleven). The isolates were obtained from blood, urine, tracheal and wound specimens. One additional isolate from hospital environment was included. Susceptibility testing, conjugation experiments, and plasmid replicon typing were carried out. Beta-lactamases were characterized by isoelectric focusing, PCR, and sequencing. Clonal relatedness was investigated by RAPD and PFGE. Integron mapping was performed by PCR and sequencing. All isolates showed a multidrug-resistance profile, but remained susceptible to piperacillin/tazobactam, cefepime, meropenem, and fosfomycin. They produced identical beta-lactamases, namely: TEM-1, VIM-1, and CMY-99. PCR mapping revealed that the bla VIM-1 gene was part of a class 1 integron that additionally included the aac(6')-I, dhfrA1, and ant(3″)-Ia genes. In addition, 17 of the isolates carried the armA gene. Conjugation experiments and plasmid replicon typing were unsuccessful. The isolates were clonally related according to RAPD and PFGE typing. This study reveals the nationwide distribution of a multidrug-resistant P. mirabilis clone producing VIM-1 and CMY-99 along with the presence of different aminoglycoside resistance mechanisms.

Behavioral Health and Performance Operations at the NASA Johnson Space Center: A Comprehensive Program that Addresses Flight and Spaceflight Duty Adaptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beven, G. E.

2017-01-01

NASA astronauts on active status require medical certification for aircraft flying duties as well as readiness for long duration spaceflight training, launch to the International Space Station (ISS), and mission continuation during spaceflight operations. Behavioral fitness and adaptability is an inherent component of medical certification at NASA and requires a unique approach that spans the professional life-span of all active astronauts. TOPIC: This presentation will address the Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) operations program at the Johnson Space Center. Components of BHP operations include astronaut selection, as well as annual, elective, preflight, inflight, and postflight BHP assessments. Each aspect of the BHP operations program will be discussed, with a focus on behavioral fitness determination and resultant outcomes. Specifically, astronaut selection generates a rating of suitability for long duration spaceflight as well as psychiatric qualification; annual, preflight and postflight BHP assessments provoke a decision regarding the presence of any aeromedical concerns; and inflight assessment requires a conclusion pertaining to mission impact. The combination of these elements provide for a unique, comprehensive approach to flight and spaceflight adaptability. APPLICATIONS: Attendees will understand the differing facets of NASA's comprehensive BHP operations program that occurs over the course of an astronaut's career and be able to compare and contrast this to the Adaptability Rating for Military Aviation (ARMA) and proposed models presented by others on this panel.

An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints

PubMed Central

Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

2016-01-01

A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS–inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car. PMID:26927108

An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

PubMed

Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

2016-02-24

A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

Hybrid Forecasting of Daily River Discharges Considering Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolgayová, Elena Peksová; Danačová, Michaela; Komorniková, Magda; Szolgay, Ján

2017-06-01

It is widely acknowledged that in the hydrological and meteorological communities, there is a continuing need to improve the quality of quantitative rainfall and river flow forecasts. A hybrid (combined deterministic-stochastic) modelling approach is proposed here that combines the advantages offered by modelling the system dynamics with a deterministic model and a deterministic forecasting error series with a data-driven model in parallel. Since the processes to be modelled are generally nonlinear and the model error series may exhibit nonstationarity and heteroscedasticity, GARCH-type nonlinear time series models are considered here. The fitting, forecasting and simulation performance of such models have to be explored on a case-by-case basis. The goal of this paper is to test and develop an appropriate methodology for model fitting and forecasting applicable for daily river discharge forecast error data from the GARCH family of time series models. We concentrated on verifying whether the use of a GARCH-type model is suitable for modelling and forecasting a hydrological model error time series on the Hron and Morava Rivers in Slovakia. For this purpose we verified the presence of heteroscedasticity in the simulation error series of the KLN multilinear flow routing model; then we fitted the GARCH-type models to the data and compared their fit with that of an ARMA - type model. We produced one-stepahead forecasts from the fitted models and again provided comparisons of the model's performance.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome without identifiable risk factors: A secondary analysis of the ARDS network trials.

PubMed

Harrington, John S; Schenck, Edward J; Oromendia, Clara; Choi, Augustine M K; Siempos, Ilias I

2018-06-02

We examined whether patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) lacking risk factors are enrolled in therapeutic trials and assessed their clinical characteristics and outcomes. We performed a secondary analysis of patient-level data pooled from the ARMA, ALVEOLI, FACTT, ALTA and EDEN ARDSNet randomized controlled trials obtained from the Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center of the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute. We compared baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes (before and after adjustment using Poisson regression model) of ARDS patients with versus without risk factors. Of 3733 patients with ARDS, 81 (2.2%) did not have an identifiable risk factor. Patients without risk factors were younger, had lower baseline severity of illness, were more likely to have the ARDS resolve rapidly (i.e., within 24 h) (p < 0.001) and they had more ventilator-free days (median 21; p = 0.003), more intensive care unit-free days (18; p = 0.010), and more non-pulmonary organ failure-free days (24; p < 0.001) than comparators (17, 14 and 18, respectively). Differences persisted after adjustment for potential confounders. Patients with ARDS without identifiable risk factors are enrolled in therapeutic trials and may have better outcomes, including a higher proportion of rapidly resolving ARDS, than those with risk factors. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Analysis of hydromechanical well tests in fractured sedimentary rock at the NAWC site, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murdoch, L.C.; Hisz, D.B.; Ebenhack, J.F.; Fowler, D.E.; Tiedeman, C.R.; Germanovich, L.N.

2009-01-01

Hydromechanical well tests involve measuring and interpreting displacements along with hydraulic heads that result when a hydraulic stress is applied to a well. The motivation behind this type of test is that the displacement measurements provide information about the constitutive properties and structure of the aquifer that go beyond what can be derived from pressure signals alone. We used a borehole extensometer to measure transient displacements with a resolution of +/- 25 nm during well tests in fractured mudstone and sandstone at the former Naval Air Warfare Center in West Trenton, New Jersey. One well showed opening displacements on the order of 300nm during slug tests with maximum head changes of 7 m. Inversion of the transient signals suggest that a conductive fracture (aperture = 380 ??m, normal stiffness = 8??10 8 Pa/m) was largely responsible for the pressure signal, but the displacement signal appears to have resulted from both the fracture and deformation of the enveloping sandstone (E = 5 GPa, permeability = 0.6 md). At another well, an anomalous but repeatable signal was characterized by closing displacements during increasing pressure. This displacement signal can be explained by a hydraulically active fracture below the extensometer that became pressurized and compressed the overly sediments. Poroelastic theoretical analyses were inverted to estimate parameters and verify interpretations. Copyright 2009 ARMA, American Rock Mechanics Association.

Recent DDT and PCB contamination in the sediment and biota of the Como Bay (Lake Como, Italy).

PubMed

Bettinetti, R; Quadroni, S; Boggio, E; Galassi, S

2016-01-15

Due to its peculiar geographical and morphological characteristics, Lake Como (Northern Italy) represents an interesting study-case for investigating the sub-basin scale circulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that, despite being banned since the 1970s, have reached surprisingly high concentrations in some southern alpine lakes as a consequence of their release from melting glaciers in recent years. In particular, the Como Bay, which is located in the city of Como, seems noteworthy because its waters have a longer residence time than the other areas of the lake. The analyses of the historical concentration of PCBs, pp′DDT and its metabolites in a sediment core sampled from the Como Bay covering a time-period from their ban to recent times, showed that the DDTs have never experienced a significant (p < 0.05) decrease over time, with concentrations of the most abundant homologue, pp′DDE, ranging from 27 to 75 ng g(-1) d.w. Conversely PCBs significantly (p < 0.05) decreased towards recent times, reaching concentrations around 80 ng g(-1) d.w. The contribution of high altitude and local sources was recorded also in the food web: both zooplankton and the zooplanktivorous fish agone were mainly contaminated by pp′DDE (81.4 ng g(-1) w.w. and 534.6 ng g(-1) w.w. respectively) and by the PCB metabolite hexa-CB (449.7 ng g(-1) w.w. and 1672.1 ng g(-1) w.w. respectively). The DDT concentrations in the agone (sampled during the years 2006–2009) never exceeded the limits for human consumption in Italy, while concentrations of six selected PCBs exceeded human health advisory recommendations in one of the fish samples analysed, when it was approximately two times higher than the recommended value of 125 ng g(-1) w.w.

Helenistic Encomium: A Reflection on Comics and Rhetoric

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helms, Jason

2009-01-01

This video reflection starts in a presentation on comics at the Thomas R. Watson Conference last October, which prompted the author to explore the etymology of cosmos and comos through an alternate reading of Gorgias' "Encomium of Helen". The author then works with comos, as revelry, to offer thoughts on comics as a form of multimodal composition…

DESAFÍOS ÉTICOS DE LA INVESTIGACIÓN CON ANIMALES, MANIPULACIÓN GENÉTICA

PubMed Central

Yunta, Eduardo Rodríguez

2012-01-01

En la investigación con animales existen cuestionamientos éticos tanto en el uso como modelos de enfermedades humanas y requisito previo para ensayos en humanos como en la introducción de modificaciones genéticas. Algunos de estos cuestionamientos son: no representar exactamente la condición humana como modelos, realizar pruebas de toxicidad con grave daño para los animales, alterar su naturaleza mediante modificaciones genéticas, riesgos de la introducción de organismos genéticamente modificados. El uso de animales en investigación para beneficio humano, impone al ser humano la responsabilidad moral de respetarlo, no haciéndoles sufrir innecesariamente, al estar trabajando con seres vivientes y sentientes. PMID:23338641

Cúmulos globulares como trazadores de bimodalidad estelar en galaxias cD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forte, J. C.

Se muestra que tanto la forma de los perfiles de brillo como de color observados en dos galaxias arquetípicas de tipo cD (NGC 1399 y NGC 4486) son compatibles con la presencia de poblaciones estelares bi-modales que comparten la misma distribución espacial y composición química de las familias dominantes de cúmulos globulares asociadas con ellas. El modelo resultante también predice una variación de la frecuencia específica de los cúmulos como función del radio galactocéntrico. Se discute este resultado en el contexto de una variedad de escenarios astrofísicos que intentan describir la formación de galaxias cD.

Uso de terreno urbano y rural en Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez; Maya Quinones; Michael E. Jimenez

2008-01-01

El Proyecto de Analisis de Gap de Puerto Rico (PRGAP) (Gould et al. 2008) desarrollo tres usos de terrenos para Puerto Rico: Urbano, Suburbano, y Rural (Martinuzzi et al. 2007). Estas regiones tambien pueden ser consideradas como urbano, densamente-poblado rural, y escasamente-poblado rural, o como urbano y area silvestre con una interfase de area silvestre-urbana. La...

M S MOLECULARES Rumo aos limites da miniaturiza o - (Molecular Magnets - towards the limits of miniaturization)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reis, Mario S; Moreira Dos Santos, Antonio F

Por s culos, acreditou-se que o magnetismo s se manifestava em metais, como aqueles contendo ferro; hoje, a imagem mais comum de um m talvez seja a daquelas plaquinhas flex veis coladas geladeira com propagandas dos mais diversos tipos. O leitor conseguiria imaginar um material puramente org nico daqueles que formam os seres vivos como magn tico? E m s do tamanho de mol culas? fato: ambos existem. Esses novos materiais, conhecidos como magnetos moleculares, descobertos e desenvolvidos em v rios laborat rios do mundo, j re nem longa lista de aplica es, do tratamento do c ncer a refrigeradoresmore » ecol gicos, passando pela transmiss o de eletricidade sem perda de calor e a fabrica o de computadores extremamente velozes.« less

Populações estelares do bojo galáctico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escudero, A. V.; Costa, R. D. D.; Maciel, W. J.

2003-08-01

Os estudos mais recentes do bojo galáctico têm enfocado essencialmente as abundâncias químicas de elementos pesados, como o ferro, obtidos a partir das estrelas nas regiões centrais da galáxia. Elementos leves, como hélio, nitrogênio, oxigênio e argônio ainda são pouco estudados nestas regiões, devido à difícil determinação de suas abundâncias a partir de estrelas. Nestas condições as nebulosas planetárias desempenham um importante papel, pois permitem a determinação de abundâncias destes elementos usando técnicas de espectroscopia nebular. Neste trabalho, reportamos a análise das abundâncias químicas de uma nova amostra de nebulosas planetárias do bojo, bem como os resultados preliminares de um código numérico destinado a modelar a evolução química desta região. Usamos como vínculos observacionais os resultados obtidos das nebulosas planetárias, bem como de abundâncias estelares da região do bojo, obtidas da literatura. A partir deste modelo da evolução química e dos vínculos observacionais foi possível fazer um diagnóstico mais preciso das populações que constituem o bojo galáctico. O estudo destas populações que compõem a região central de nossa galáxia é de extrema importância para o maior entendimento da evolução química e dinâmica da galáxia como um todo. Por isto, verificamos a importância dos modelos de formação simples e mista utilizados para explicar características da população da região central da galáxia. Algumas destas características são: uma grande dispersão nos valores das abundâncias químicas e um grande espalhamento nas correlações entre as abundâcias de nitrogênio e oxigênio. Estas peculiaridades são dificilmente reproduzidas por modelos de formação simples, e portanto são importantes indícios da validade dos modelos de formação mista, tais como um rápido colapso do bojo seguido de uma evolução secular. (FAPESP, CNPq)

Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Conference on Dynamics of Cosmic Gases, Varenna Italy (Lake of Como), August 18-30, 1960; ATTI DEL IV SYMPOSIUM SULLA DINAMICA DEL GAS COSMICO, VARENNA SUL LAGO DI COMO 18-30 AGOSTO 1960

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1961-01-01

Fifteen papers are included: separate abstracts have been prepared for l0. A single abstract has been prepared to cover the remaining 5 papers, which consist of observational studies. Extensive discussions are included. (T.F.H.)

On Ensino de Astronomia: Desafios para Implantação

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faria, R. Z.; Voelzke, M. R.

2008-09-01

Em 2002 o ensino de Astronomia foi proposto como um dos temas estruturadores pelos Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais e sugerido como facilitador para que o aluno compreendesse a Física como construção humana e parte do seu mundo vivencial, mas raramente seus conceitos foram ensinados. A presente pesquisa discute dois aspectos relacionados à abordagem de Astronomia. O primeiro aspecto é se ela está sendo abordada pelos professores do Ensino Médio e o segundo, aborda a maneira como ela está sendo ensinada. Optou-se pela aplicação de um questionário a partir do 2° semestre de 2006 e durante o ano de 2007 com professores que ministram a disciplina de Física, os quais trabalham em escolas estaduais em Rio Grande da Serra, Ribeirão Pires e Mauá no estado São Paulo. Dos 66,2% dos professores que responderam ao questionário nos municípios de Rio Grande da Serra, Ribeirão Pires e Mauá, 57,4% não aplicaram nenhum tópico de astronomia, 70,2% não utilizaram laboratório, 89,4% não utilizaram qualquer tipo de programa computacional, 83,0% nunca fizeram visitas com alunos a museus e planetários e 38,3% não indicaram qualquer tipo de livro ou revista referente à astronomia aos seus alunos. Mesmo considerando a Astronomia um conteúdo potencialmente significativo, esta não fez parte dos planejamentos escolares. Portanto são necessárias propostas que visem estratégias para a educação continuada dos professores como, por exemplo, cursos específicos sobre o ensino em Astronomia.

LA BIOÉTICA COMO QUEHACER FILOSÓFICO

PubMed Central

Ferrer, Jorge José

2009-01-01

El artículo examina el estatuto epistemológico de la bioética como disciplina académica. El autor sostiene que el estatuto epistemológico de un discurso lo determina la pregunta fundamental que se plantea y la respuesta que se busca, focos integradores del discurso. En el caso de la bioética, la pregunta fundamental es de índole moral. La bioética es pues una disciplina ética que tiene su hogar epistemológico en la filosofía. El autor también defiende el concepto de “éticas aplicadas”. Sugiere finalmente que el método de la bioética, sobre todo la que se hace desde nuestras latitudes, debería adoptar el círculo hermenéutico como metodología para su filosofar. PMID:20463860

Como preparar un programa de informacion sobre la asistencia economica (Planning a Financial Aid Awareness Program).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department of Education, Washington, DC.

This booklet, written in Spanish, is intended to be used with a set of slides as part of a presentation to students on "How To Apply for Federal Student Aid" ("Como Solicitar la Asistencia Economica Federal para Estudiantes"). The first part of the book is a script based on the slides. After the script is a guide to hosting a financial aid…

Development of a Robust Identifier for NPPs Transients Combining ARIMA Model and EBP Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshkbar-Bakhshayesh, Khalil; Ghofrani, Mohammad B.

2014-08-01

This study introduces a novel identification method for recognition of nuclear power plants (NPPs) transients by combining the autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model and the neural network with error backpropagation (EBP) learning algorithm. The proposed method consists of three steps. First, an EBP based identifier is adopted to distinguish the plant normal states from the faulty ones. In the second step, ARIMA models use integrated (I) process to convert non-stationary data of the selected variables into stationary ones. Subsequently, ARIMA processes, including autoregressive (AR), moving-average (MA), or autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) are used to forecast time series of the selected plant variables. In the third step, for identification the type of transients, the forecasted time series are fed to the modular identifier which has been developed using the latest advances of EBP learning algorithm. Bushehr nuclear power plant (BNPP) transients are probed to analyze the ability of the proposed identifier. Recognition of transient is based on similarity of its statistical properties to the reference one, rather than the values of input patterns. More robustness against noisy data and improvement balance between memorization and generalization are salient advantages of the proposed identifier. Reduction of false identification, sole dependency of identification on the sign of each output signal, selection of the plant variables for transients training independent of each other, and extendibility for identification of more transients without unfavorable effects are other merits of the proposed identifier.

Effects of the 1- N-(4-Amino-2 S-hydroxybutyryl) and 6'- N-(2-Hydroxyethyl) Substituents on Ribosomal Selectivity, Cochleotoxicity, and Antibacterial Activity in the Sisomicin Class of Aminoglycoside Antibiotics.

PubMed

Sonousi, Amr; Sarpe, Vikram A; Brilkova, Margarita; Schacht, Jochen; Vasella, Andrea; Böttger, Erik C; Crich, David

2018-05-10

Syntheses of the 6'- N-(2-hydroxyethyl) and 1- N-(4-amino-2 S-hydroxybutyryl) derivatives of the 4,6-aminoglycoside sisomicin and that of the doubly modified 1- N-(4-amino-2 S-hydroxybutyryl)-6'- N-(2-hydroxyethyl) derivative known as plazomicin are reported together with their antibacterial and antiribosomal activities and selectivities. The 6'- N-(2-hydroxyethyl) modification results in a moderate increase in prokaryotic/eukaryotic ribosomal selectivity, whereas the 1- N-(4-amino-2 S-hydroxybutyryl) modification has the opposite effect. When combined in plazomicin, the effects of the two groups on ribosomal selectivity cancel each other out, leading to the prediction that plazomicin will exhibit ototoxicity comparable to those of the parent and the current clinical aminoglycoside antibiotics gentamicin and tobramycin, as borne out by ex vivo studies with mouse cochlear explants. The 6'- N-(2-hydroxyethyl) modification restores antibacterial activity in the presence of the AAC(6') aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes, while the 1- N-(4-amino-2 S-hydroxybutyryl) modification overcomes resistance to the AAC(2') class but is still affected to some extent by the AAC(3) class. Neither modification is able to circumvent the ArmA ribosomal methyltransferase-induced aminoglycoside resistance. The use of phenyltriazenyl protection for the secondary amino group of sisomicin facilitates the synthesis of each derivative and their characterization through the provision of sharp NMR spectra for all intermediates.

Seasonal variability of the diapycnal mixing in the Canary Islands channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Santana, Angel; Marrero-Díaz, Angeles; Machín, Francisco Jose; García-Weil, Luis; Sangrà, Pablo; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Estrada-Allis, Sheila

2014-05-01

Trimonthly surveys of XBT and XCTD (Expandable Bathytermograph and Conductivity-Temperature-Depth) crossing the whole Canary Islands channels were carried out (projects TRAMIC and PROMECA) from November 2012 until September 2013 using opportunity ships (Naviera Armas Ferries). With this data set and using salinity analytical relationships (Machín et al, 2010), vertical sections of temperature and potential density were obtained for each channel and season. In order to estimate the intensity of the diapycnal mixing in the first 500 m of the pycnocline, vertical sections of Thorpe length scale, Turner angle and gradient Richardson number (from the geostrophic vertical shear) were calculated for all the cases. The first results show how the diapycnal mixing due to the vertical shear instabilities is more intense close to the islands and in summer when the seasonal pycnocline is present. Mixing due to double diffusion processes (salt fingers) was found without sizable changes in the permanent pycnocline. Net turbulence diffusivities and diapycnal diffusive fluxes with their variability spatial and temporal will be estimate for each channel taking into account that processes of double diffusion and turbulence induced by vertical shear are present at the same time. Additionally the results obtained from hydrographic data from the cruise RAPROCAN-2013 (IEO) (October 2013) around Canary Islands will be used to compare them with the channels results. This work was co-funded by Canary Government (TRAMIC project: PROID20100092), European Union (FEDER) and Spanish Government (PROMECA: CTM2008-04057/MAR and CTM2009-06993-E/MAR)

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

[News of antibiotic resistance among Gram-negative bacilli in Algeria].

PubMed

Baba Ahmed-Kazi Tani, Z; Arlet, G

2014-06-01

Antibiotic resistance has become a major public health problem in Algeria. Indeed the past decade, we have seen a significant increase in resistance to antibiotics especially in Gram-negative bacilli. Resistance to β-lactams in enterobacteria is dominated by the production of ESBL CTX-M-3 and CTX-M-15. The strains producing these enzymes are often the cause of potentially serious infections in both hospital and community settings. Identified plasmid cephalosporinases are CMY-2, CMY-12 and DHA-1. The isolation of strains of Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa producing carbapenemases is rare in Algeria. Some Enterobacteriaceae producing OXA-48 or VIM-19 have been reported; so far, only VIM-2 has been identified in P. aeruginosa. However, the situation regarding the strains of Acinetobacter baumannii resistant to carbapenemases seems to be more disturbing. The carbapenemase OXA-23 is the most common and seems to be endemic in the north. The carbapenemase NDM-1 has also been identified. Resistance to aminoglycosides is marked by the identification armA gene associated with blaCTX-M genes in strains of Salmonella sp. Several other resistance genes have been identified sporadically in strains of Enterobacteriaceae, P. aeruginosa and A. baumannii. Resistance genes to fluoroquinolones are more recent identification in Algeria. The most common are the Qnr determinants followed by the bifunctional enzyme AAC[6']-Ib-cr. Resistance to sulfonamides and trimethoprim was also reported in Enterobacteriaceae strains in the west of the country. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.

Novel Aminoglycoside Resistance Transposons and Transposon-Derived Circular Forms Detected in Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Clinical Isolates

PubMed Central

Dwibedi, Chinmay Kumar; Sjöström, Karin; Edquist, Petra; Wai, Sun Nyunt; Uhlin, Bernt Eric

2016-01-01

Acinetobacter baumannii has emerged as an important opportunistic pathogen equipped with a growing number of antibiotic resistance genes. Our study investigated the molecular epidemiology and antibiotic resistance features of 28 consecutive carbapenem-resistant clinical isolates of A. baumannii collected throughout Sweden in 2012 and 2013. The isolates mainly belonged to clonal complexes (CCs) with an extensive international distribution, such as CC2 (n = 16) and CC25 (n = 7). Resistance to carbapenems was related to blaOXA-23 (20 isolates), blaOXA-24/40-like (6 isolates), blaOXA-467 (1 isolate), and ISAba1-blaOXA-69 (1 isolate). Ceftazidime resistance was associated with blaPER-7 in the CC25 isolates. Two classical point mutations were responsible for resistance to quinolones in all the isolates. Isolates with high levels of resistance to aminoglycosides carried the 16S rRNA methylase armA gene. The isolates also carried a variety of genes encoding aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes. Several novel structures involved in aminoglycoside resistance were identified, including Tn6279, ΔTn6279, Ab-ST3-aadB, and different assemblies of Tn6020 and TnaphA6. Importantly, a number of circular forms related to the IS26 or ISAba125 composite transposons were detected. The frequent occurrence of these circular forms in the populations of several isolates indicates a potential role of these circular forms in the dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes. PMID:26824943

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2013-07-25

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series. The performance of four algorithms is compared. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets used in power grid operation to study the net load balancing need in variable generation integration studies. The four algorithms are truncated-normal distribution models, state-space based Markov models, seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, and a stochastic-optimization based approach. The comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load valuesmore » to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics (i.e., mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation). The results show that all methods generate satisfactory results. One method may preserve one or two required statistical characteristics better the other methods, but may not preserve other statistical characteristics as well compared with the other methods. Because the wind and load forecast error generators are used in wind integration studies to produce wind and load forecasts time series for stochastic planning processes, it is sometimes critical to use multiple methods to generate the error time series to obtain a statistically robust result. Therefore, this paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.« less

Application of selection and estimation regular vine copula on go public company share

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasna Afifah, R.; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

2018-03-01

The accuracy of financial risk management involving a large number of assets is needed, but information about dependencies among assets cannot be adequately analyzed. To analyze dependencies on a number of assets, several tools have been added to standard multivariate copula. However, these tools have not been adequately used in apps with higher dimensions. The bivariate parametric copula families can be used to solve it. The multivariate copula can be built from the bivariate parametric copula which is connected by a graphical representation to become Pair Copula Constructions (PCCs) or vine copula. The application of C-vine and D-vine copula have been used in some researches, but the use of C-vine and D-vine copula is more limited than R-vine copula. Therefore, this study used R-vine copula to provide flexibility for modeling complex dependencies on a high dimension. Since copula is a static model, while stock values change over time, then copula should be combined with the ARMA- GARCH model for modeling the movement of shares (volatility). The objective of this paper is to select and estimate R-vine copula which is used to analyze PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR), PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk (WSKT), and PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) from august 31, 2014 to august 31, 2017. From the method it is obtained that the selected copulas for 2 edges at the first tree are survival Gumbel and the copula for edge at the second tree is Gaussian.

A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

2011-12-01

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

Linear mixed-effects models to describe individual tree crown width for China-fir in Fujian Province, southeast China.

PubMed

Hao, Xu; Yujun, Sun; Xinjie, Wang; Jin, Wang; Yao, Fu

2015-01-01

A multiple linear model was developed for individual tree crown width of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook in Fujian province, southeast China. Data were obtained from 55 sample plots of pure China-fir plantation stands. An Ordinary Linear Least Squares (OLS) regression was used to establish the crown width model. To adjust for correlations between observations from the same sample plots, we developed one level linear mixed-effects (LME) models based on the multiple linear model, which take into account the random effects of plots. The best random effects combinations for the LME models were determined by the Akaike's information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion and the -2logarithm likelihood. Heteroscedasticity was reduced by three residual variance functions: the power function, the exponential function and the constant plus power function. The spatial correlation was modeled by three correlation structures: the first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], a combination of first-order autoregressive and moving average structures [ARMA(1,1)], and the compound symmetry structure (CS). Then, the LME model was compared to the multiple linear model using the absolute mean residual (AMR), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the adjusted coefficient of determination (adj-R2). For individual tree crown width models, the one level LME model showed the best performance. An independent dataset was used to test the performance of the models and to demonstrate the advantage of calibrating LME models.

Estimaciones de cambio climatico para Michoacan: Implicaciones para el sector agropecuario y forestal y para la conservacion de la Mariposa Monarca [In Spanish

Treesearch

Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston; Pierre Duval; Jean Beaulieu

2009-01-01

El cambio climatico, conocido comunmente como calentamiento global, es el incremento de la temperatura a nivel mundial y los cambios que de ello derivan, causados por el "efecto invernadero" del bioxido de carbono (CO2) y otros gases emitidos a la atmosfera. El uso de combustibles fosiles (carbon y derivados del petroleo, como gasolina, diesel, combustoleo y...

Percepção Astronômica de Alunos do Ensino Médio da Rede Estadual de São Paulo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, E. F.; Voelzke, M. R.; Amaral, L. H.

2005-08-01

Embora a astronomia seja uma das ciências mais antigas da humanidade e muitos dos conceitos astronômicos serem populares, principalmente nesta época de alta globalização do conhecimento por intermédio de eficientes meios de comunicação e de obtenção da informação, notadamente através da internet, observa-se que uma parcela significativa dos estudantes encontra-se à margem dessas informações. O presente trabalho visa analisar o nível de conhecimento básico dos alunos de Ensino Médio da rede estadual da cidade de Suzano quanto aos fenômenos astronômicos que os rodeiam, tais como a sucessão dos dias e das estações do ano, além de questioná-los sobre fatos genéricos tais como: quais são os astros que se encontram mais próximos do planeta Terra, o que vem a ser o Sol, o Big Bang, um ano-luz, uma estrela cadente, a estrela de Bélem e o que ocasionou a extinção dos dinossauros. Para tanto foi elaborado um formulário constando de questões de múltipla escolha, o qual foi aplicado no primeiro colegial noturno da Escola Estadual Batista Renzi. Num espaço amostral de 34 alunos constatou-se que apenas 29,4% compreendiam a sucessão dos dias da semana, que apenas 20,6% explicaram corretamente as estações do ano, que apenas 20,6% tinham idéia de quais são os objetos celestes mais próximos da Terra, em contraposição 67,6% sabiam classificar corretamente o Sol como estrela, 55,9% relacionavam o Big Bang à origem do universo, apenas 20,6% identificavam um ano-luz como unidade de distância, 32,4% reconheciam uma estrela cadente como meteoro, 41,2% consideravam a estrela de Belém como um cometa e 50,0% explicaram corretamente a extinção dos dinossauros. A presente análise será expandida para as demais classes de primeiro colegial, não somente do período noturno, mas também do diurno da Escola Estadual Batista Renzi, bem como o formulário será devidamente ampliado. Já nesta primeira fase nota-se claramente o pequeno discernimento de eventos astronômicos dos alunos e principalmente a grande confusão sobre o significado correto de termos astronômicos populares.

Conhecimento Científico e Cotidiano em Astronomia: Uma Investigação com Alunos da Educação Básica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, J. B.; Longhini, M. D.

2011-12-01

Este texto apresenta resultados de uma investigação que teve como objetivo, investigar como os conhecimentos científicos e do cotidiano relacionados a essa área de conhecimento apresentam na escola de Educação Básica, especialmente, em alunos do Ensino Médio prestes a deixar Educação Básica. Para realização da pesquisa, utilizamos como recurso metodológico a aplicação de um questionário estruturado contendo 47 questões, organizadas em duas categorias: Conhecimento Cotidiano e Conhecimento Científico. As questões da categoria “Conhecimento Cotidiano” possuíam afirmações relacionadas a crendices, contos populares, especulações e temáticas do gênero, as quais, geralmente, estão fora do círculo de discussão da comunidade científica, talvez por não serem consideradas como objeto de estudo da ciência. As questões da categoria “Conhecimento Científico” são relacionadas a conteúdos específicos de Astronomia, as quais são compartilhadas pela comunidade científica e aceitas, pelo menos provisoriamente, como possuindo fundamentação científica. Concluímos que, possuem ainda concepções de temas Astronômicos persistentes à mudança, por exemplo, fases da Lua relacionadas à melhor período para corte de cabelo e também para plantio; estrela cadente e ocasião perfeita para se fazer um pedido. Entretanto, podemos observar no que diz respeito a mitos e superstições, que quase não existe influência destes entre os alunos. Portanto, ao trabalharmos com os alunos determinados conceitos científicos, é importante lembrarmos que o professor não opera no vazio; os alunos são sujeitos de saberes, práticas e, dessa forma constroem e reconstroem saberes. Cabe ao professor ouvir os estudantes reconstruindo junto deles conceitos científicos. Acreditamos que o ensino de Ciências na Educação Básica deve lidar criticamente com o conhecimento cotidiano e científico e, assim, efetivar a Ciência como disciplina educativa, formativa e libertadora.

Gabapentina a dosis de 300 vs. 450 mg como premedicación anestésica para hipertensión reactiva, ansiedad y analgesia.

PubMed

Rascón-Martínez, Dulce María; Guzmán-Sánchez, Joaquín Antonio; Corral-Urdapilleta, Nora Paulina; Arguelles-Uribe, Gema Damaris; Velázquez-Loeza, Jazmín; Soto-Palma, Gustavo; Carrillo-Torres, Orlando

Observar el comportamiento de la gabapentina para aminorar la hipertensión reactiva secundaria a ansiedad y dolor en pacientes sometidos a cirugía oftálmica, así como el consumo de opiáceos entre los grupos. Ensayo clínico controlado aleatorizado y doble ciego que analizó a 125 pacientes divididos en tres grupos: grupo A, gabapentina 300 mg; grupo B, gabapentina 450 mg; grupo C, amaranto en grageas como control 2 horas antes del procedimiento quirúrgico. Se utilizó la prueba de ji al cuadrado para variables sociodemográficas y ANOVA de un factor para variables numéricas continuas. Se consideró como significativo un valor de p < 0.05 para un estudio de dos colas con un poder beta del 80%. La ansiedad y la analgesia transoperatoria y posoperatoria tuvieron diferencias significativas entre los grupos. Se encontró menor consumo de opiáceos en los grupos que usaron gabapentina. La gabapentina por vía oral, 300 o 450 mg, 2 horas antes de la cirugía, reduce el dolor, la ansiedad y el consumo de opiáceos durante el posoperatorio en pacientes sometidos a cirugía oftalmológica. Copyright: © 2018 SecretarÍa de Salud

Sobrevivendo a un tsunami: lecciones de Chile, Hawai y Japon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Compilado por Atwater, Brian F.; Cisternas V., Marco; Bourgeois, Joanne; Dudley, Walter C.; Hendley, James W.; Stauffer, Peter H.

1999-01-01

Este folleto contiene historias veridicas que ilustran como sobrevivir, y como no sobrevivir, a un tsunami. Esta publicacion esta dirigida a las personas que viven, trabajan o, simplemente, se divierten a lo largo de las costas que pueden ser afectadas por un tsunami. Tales costas rodean la mayor parte del Oceano Pacifico pero tambien incluyen algunas areas costeras de los Oceanos Atlantico e Indico. Aunque mucha gente llama a los tsunamis 'olas de marea', estos no estan relacionados a las mareas, sino son una serie de olas, o 'tren de olas', generalmente causadas por cambios en el nivel del fondo marino durante los terremotos. Los tsunamis tambien pueden ser generados por la erupcion de volcanes costeros, islas volconicas, deslizamientos submarinos e impactos de grandes meteoritos en el mar. Como sucedio en Sumatra en el 2004, los tsunamis pueden alcanzar alturas de 15 metros, no tan solo en la costa sino tambien kilometros tierra adentro. Los relatos presentados en este folleto fueron seleccionados de entrevistas realizadas a personas que sobrevivieron al tsunami del Oceano Pacifico de 1960. Muchas de estas personas, incluyendo a la enfermera de la foto, se enfrento a las olas generadas a poca distancia, en la costa chilena. En cambio, otros debieron hacer frente al tsunami muchas horas despues, en Hawai y Japon. La mayoria de las entrevistas fueron realizadas a fines de los anos ochenta y en los noventa. Las historias ofrecen una mezcla de lecciones de supervivencia a un tsunami. En algunos casos se presentan las acciones que confiablemente salvaron vidas: poner atencion a los avisos de la naturaleza, abandonar los bienes, dirigirse rapidamente a un sector alto y permanecer alli hasta que el tsunami realmente haya terminado. Otras historias describen como se encontro refugio al subir a construcciones y arboles o flotar sobre desechos, tacticas que tuvieron diferentes resultados y que pueden ser recomendadas solo como actos desesperados de personas atrapadas en sectores bajos.

Astronomia Motivadora no Ensino Fundamental

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, J.; Voelzke, M. R.

2008-09-01

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é procurar desenvolver o interesse dos alunos pelas ciências através da Astronomia. Uma pesquisa com perguntas sobre Astronomia foi realizada junto a 161 alunos do Ensino Fundamental, com o intuito de descobrir conhecimentos prévios dos alunos sobre o assunto. Constatou-se, por exemplo, que 29,3% da 6ª série responderam corretamente o que é eclipse, 30,0% da 8ª série acertaram o que a Astronomia estuda, enquanto 42,3% dos alunos da 5ª série souberam definir o Sol. Pretende-se ampliar as turmas participantes e trabalhar, principalmente de forma prática com: dimensões e escalas no Sistema Solar, construção de luneta, questões como dia e noite, estações do ano e eclipses. Busca-se abordar, também, outros conteúdos de Física tais como a óptica na construção da luneta, e a mecânica no trabalho com escalas e medidas, e ao utilizar uma luminária para representar o Sol na questão do eclipse, e de outras disciplinas como a Matemática na transformação de unidades, regras de três; Artes na modelagem ou desenho dos planetas; a própria História com relação à busca pela origem do universo, e a Informática que possibilita a busca mais rápida por informações, além de permitir simulações e visualizações de imagens importantes. Acredita-se que a Astronomia é importante no processo ensino aprendizagem, pois permite a discussão de temas curiosos como, por exemplo, a origem do universo, viagens espaciais a existência ou não de vida em outros planetas, além de temas atuais como as novas tecnologias.

Combat Identification Systems COMO Integrated Air Defense Model Evaluation (CISE) Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-01

use K or IR , whichever one applies) E-6 CAA-SR-89- 3 Subroutine PDECLR 1/21/88 Before label 1000 Insert: IF (IR.GT.10) IR a 10 These changes were made...Internal Distribution: Unclassified Library 2 F-2 CAA-SR-89- 3 GLOSSARY 1. ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS, AND SHORT TERMS ADM2 Air Defense Models Modification...STUDY REPORT ’ , CAA-Sn-89- 3 i , .- CD o COMBAT IDENTIFICATION SYSTEMS N COMO INTEGRATED AIR DEFENSE MODEL EVALUATION (CISE) STUDY FEBRUARY 1989

Influence of H 2O and H 2S on the composition, activity, and stability of sulfided Mo, CoMo, and NiMo supported on MgAl 2O 4 for hydrodeoxygenation of ethylene glycol

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dabros, Trine Marie Hartmann; Gaur, Abhijeet; Pintos, Delfina Garcia

Here in this work, density functional theory (DFT), catalytic activity tests, and in-situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) was performed to gain detailed insights into the activity and stability of MoS 2, Ni-MoS 2, and Co-MoS 2 catalysts used for hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of ethylene glycol upon variation of the partial pressures of H 2O and H 2S. The results show high water tolerance of the catalysts and highlight the importance of promotion and H 2S level during HDO. DFT calculations unraveled that the active edge of MoS 2 could be stabilized against SO exchanges by increasing the partial pressure of Hmore » 2S or by promotion with either Ni or Co. The Mo, NiMo, and CoMo catalysts of the present study were all active and fairly selective for ethylene glycol HDO at 400 °C, 27 bar H 2, and 550–2200 ppm H 2S, and conversions of ≈50–100%. The unpromoted Mo/MgAl 2O 4 catalyst had a lower stability and activity per gram catalyst than the promoted analogues. The NiMo and CoMo catalysts produced ethane, ethylene, and C1 cracking products with a C 2/C 1 ratio of 1.5–2.0 at 550 ppm H 2S. This ratio of HDO to cracking could be increased to ≈2 at 2200 ppm H 2S which also stabilized the activity. Removing H 2S from the feed caused severe catalyst deactivation. Both DFT and catalytic activity tests indicated that increasing the H 2S concentration increased the concentration of SH groups on the catalyst, which correspondingly activated and stabilized the catalytic HDO performance. In-situ XAS further supported that the catalysts were tolerant towards water when exposed to increasing water concentration with H2O/H2S ratios up to 300 at 400–450 °C. Raman spectroscopy and XAS showed that MoS2 was present in the prepared catalysts as small and highly dispersed particles, probably owing to a strong interaction with the support. Linear combination fitting (LCF) analysis of the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra obtained during in-situ sulfidation showed that Ni was sulfided faster than Mo and CoMo, and that Mo was sulfided faster when promoted with Ni. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) results showed the presence of MoS 2 in all sulfided catalysts. Lastly, sulfided CoMo was present as a mixture of CoMoS and Co 9S 8, whereas sulfided NiMo was present as NiMoS.« less

Influence of H 2O and H 2S on the composition, activity, and stability of sulfided Mo, CoMo, and NiMo supported on MgAl 2O 4 for hydrodeoxygenation of ethylene glycol

DOE PAGES

Dabros, Trine Marie Hartmann; Gaur, Abhijeet; Pintos, Delfina Garcia; ...

2017-12-10

Here in this work, density functional theory (DFT), catalytic activity tests, and in-situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) was performed to gain detailed insights into the activity and stability of MoS 2, Ni-MoS 2, and Co-MoS 2 catalysts used for hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of ethylene glycol upon variation of the partial pressures of H 2O and H 2S. The results show high water tolerance of the catalysts and highlight the importance of promotion and H 2S level during HDO. DFT calculations unraveled that the active edge of MoS 2 could be stabilized against SO exchanges by increasing the partial pressure of Hmore » 2S or by promotion with either Ni or Co. The Mo, NiMo, and CoMo catalysts of the present study were all active and fairly selective for ethylene glycol HDO at 400 °C, 27 bar H 2, and 550–2200 ppm H 2S, and conversions of ≈50–100%. The unpromoted Mo/MgAl 2O 4 catalyst had a lower stability and activity per gram catalyst than the promoted analogues. The NiMo and CoMo catalysts produced ethane, ethylene, and C1 cracking products with a C 2/C 1 ratio of 1.5–2.0 at 550 ppm H 2S. This ratio of HDO to cracking could be increased to ≈2 at 2200 ppm H 2S which also stabilized the activity. Removing H 2S from the feed caused severe catalyst deactivation. Both DFT and catalytic activity tests indicated that increasing the H 2S concentration increased the concentration of SH groups on the catalyst, which correspondingly activated and stabilized the catalytic HDO performance. In-situ XAS further supported that the catalysts were tolerant towards water when exposed to increasing water concentration with H2O/H2S ratios up to 300 at 400–450 °C. Raman spectroscopy and XAS showed that MoS2 was present in the prepared catalysts as small and highly dispersed particles, probably owing to a strong interaction with the support. Linear combination fitting (LCF) analysis of the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra obtained during in-situ sulfidation showed that Ni was sulfided faster than Mo and CoMo, and that Mo was sulfided faster when promoted with Ni. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) results showed the presence of MoS 2 in all sulfided catalysts. Lastly, sulfided CoMo was present as a mixture of CoMoS and Co 9S 8, whereas sulfided NiMo was present as NiMoS.« less

Neurobiología del autismo y TDAH mediante técnicas de neuroimagen: divergencias y convergencias

PubMed Central

Proal, Erika; Olvera, Jorge González; Blancas, Aurea S.; Chalita, Pablo J.; Castellanos, F. Xavier

2013-01-01

En el área clínica algunos síntomas del trastorno por déficit de atención e hiperactividad (TDAH), se presentan en los pacientes con trastorno del espectro autista (TEA). Se ha demostrado que existen alteraciones en circuitos cerebrales que impactan en fallas cognitivas y de comportamiento específicas de cada uno de estos trastornos. Sin embargo, han sido poco estudiados los correlatos cerebrales que hay detrás tanto de las similitudes como de las diferencias sintomatológicas. En la presente revisión se analizaron los estudios meta-analíticos existentes estructurales y funcionales en TDAH y TEA. Por un lado, se observaron convergencias en circuitos como el dorsal atencional, de funciones ejecutivas, visual, somatomotor y circuito de activación por defecto. Estas similitudes posiblemente explican las manifestaciones comórbidas entre los trastornos como la falla en la integración de información, motricidad fina y procesos atencionales específicos. Por otro lado, específicamente en el TDAH se observan déficits en el circuito de recompensa y ventral atencional, sistemas involucrados en la medición de efectos de reforzamiento y monitoreo atencional. En TEA los circuitos más afectados fueron los implicados en procesos de cognición social y lenguaje. En conclusión, existen correlatos neuronales en TEA que explican las manifestaciones clínicas tanto convergentes como divergentes presentes en TDAH. PMID:23897144

[Not Available].

PubMed

Zubiaga, Lorea; Ruiz-Tovar, Jaime; Giner, Lorena; González, Juan; Aguilar, María Del Mar; García, Alejandro; Calpena, Rafael; Durán, Manuel

2016-07-19

Introducción y objetivo: el IMC puede resultar engañoso para ciertas complexiones corporales, por lo que se han propuesto otros parámetros como la adiposidad (calculada a través de fórmula CUN-BAE,) el índice de Framingham de riesgo cardiovascular (IF) y el índice aterogénico (IA) (rCT/HDL-c) como predictores de riesgo cardiovascular. Se propone comparar estos factores como marcadores de éxito terapéutico tras cirugía en pacientes obesos sometidos a gastrectomía vertical laparoscópica (GVL) como procedimiento de cirugía bariátrica.Material y métodos: realizamos un estudio observacional prospectivo de pacientes sometidos a GVL y con un periodo de seguimiento mínimo de 1 año. Analizamos la evolución de IMC, adiposidad, IF e IA.Resultados: analizamos 140 pacientes. El IMC preoperatorio fue de 49,1 kg/m2, con una adiposidad del 54,8%, un IF 7,54% y un IA de 4,2. A los 12 meses el IMC era de 28,4 kg/m2, con una adiposidad del 39,4%, un IF del 3,7% y un IA de 1,64. En función de estos resultados, a los 12 meses el IMC medio está en rango de sobrepeso, la adiposidad en niveles de obesidad (obesidad: > 25% en hombres y > 35% en mujeres), el IF en rango de riesgo cardiovascular bajo (< 5%) y el IA dentro del rango de normalidad (< 3). Correlacionando estos parámetros observamos que el IMC se correlaciona con la adiposidad tanto en valores preoperatorios (Pearson 0,486; p = 0,004), posoperatorios (Pearson 0,957; p < 0,001), como en la diferencia entre ambos (Pearson 0,606; p = 0,017), lo cual es lógico, porque el IMC se incluye en la fórmula CUN-BAE para el cálculo de la adiposidad. En los valores posoperatorios se objetiva una correlación de la adiposidad con el IF (Pearson 0,814, p = 0,036) y con el IA (Pearson 0,517; p = 0,049). En los valores preoperatorios no se objetivan dichas correlaciones. El IMC no se correlacionó con la adiposidad.Conclusión: la adiposidad se correlaciona con índices de riesgo cardiovascular, como el índice de Framingham o el índice aterogénico, pero solo en las determinaciones posoperatorias. Estos elementos suponen herramientas útiles para valorar la disminución del riesgo de enfermedad cardiovascular después de cirugía bariátrica.

Determinacion del error sistematico del momentum de muones producidos por interacciones neutrino-nucleon en el detector MINER$$\

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diaz Bautista, Gonzalo A.

El Modelo Estandar describe todas las partculas observadas en el naturaleza hasta el momento as como las caractersticas que gobiernan a las interacciones fundamentales entre ellas. En especial es posible identicar a las interacciones electromagnetica y debil, las cuales bajo determinadas condiciones de temperatura y energa pueden ser descritas a traves de una sola teora que engloba a ambas. A esta teora se le denomina electrodebil y tiene como nalidad caracterizar las propiedades de la interaccion maniesta a partir de la mezcla de las interacciones electromagnetica y debil, la que tambien lleva como nombre interaccion electrodebil. Particularmente, los neutrinos sonmore » de especial interes ya que, por un lado, interactuan por medio de la interaccion debil muy raramente en comparacion con otras partculas y, por el otro, no son acertadamente descritos por el Modelo Estandar. Por medio de observaciones experimentales que demostraban que los neutrinos cambian de sabor al propagarse, fenomeno llamado oscilaciones de neutrinos, se pudo llegar a la conclusion de que la implicancia de este fenomeno da como consecuencia que los neutrinos efectivamente s tienen masa, algo que entra en contradiccion con la descripcion inicial del Modelo Estandar, el cual los describe como partculas sin masa. Es de esta manera que las oscilaciones de neutrinos han sido y siguen siendo en la actualidad objeto de interes en la Fsica de Altas Energas tanto teorica como experimental. A n de poder realizar mediciones precisas de oscilaciones de neutrinos, los experimentos encargados de estas mediciones deben tratar de reducir sus incertidumbres en lo posible. Una de estas proviene de la caracterizacion de las secciones de choque de los neutrinos cuando interactuan con la materia, particularmente los nucleones al interior de los nucleos atomicos. El experimento MINERA esta orientado, entre otras cosas, a hacer una correcta caracterizacion de secciones de choque neutrino-nucleon por medio del estudio de un tipo especco de interaccion denominado corriente cargada, cuyas partculas de estado nal incluye hadrones y, principalmente, muones. La precision en los resultados de secciones de choque esta sujeta a que la energa y el momentum estos muones sean, a su vez, correctamente caracterizados, incluyendo sus incertidumbres sistematicas. El objetivo de este trabajo de tesis es precisamente presentar la metodologa usada para medir las energas de los muones producidos por interacciones de neutrinos y sus correspondientes incertidumbres asociadas a dicha medicion.« less

[Primary branch size of Pinus koraiensis plantation: a prediction based on linear mixed effect model].

PubMed

Dong, Ling-Bo; Liu, Zhao-Gang; Li, Feng-Ri; Jiang, Li-Chun

2013-09-01

By using the branch analysis data of 955 standard branches from 60 sampled trees in 12 sampling plots of Pinus koraiensis plantation in Mengjiagang Forest Farm in Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China, and based on the linear mixed-effect model theory and methods, the models for predicting branch variables, including primary branch diameter, length, and angle, were developed. Considering tree effect, the MIXED module of SAS software was used to fit the prediction models. The results indicated that the fitting precision of the models could be improved by choosing appropriate random-effect parameters and variance-covariance structure. Then, the correlation structures including complex symmetry structure (CS), first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], and first-order autoregressive and moving average structure [ARMA(1,1)] were added to the optimal branch size mixed-effect model. The AR(1) improved the fitting precision of branch diameter and length mixed-effect model significantly, but all the three structures didn't improve the precision of branch angle mixed-effect model. In order to describe the heteroscedasticity during building mixed-effect model, the CF1 and CF2 functions were added to the branch mixed-effect model. CF1 function improved the fitting effect of branch angle mixed model significantly, whereas CF2 function improved the fitting effect of branch diameter and length mixed model significantly. Model validation confirmed that the mixed-effect model could improve the precision of prediction, as compare to the traditional regression model for the branch size prediction of Pinus koraiensis plantation.

Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papacharalampous, Georgia; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2018-02-01

We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year-long monthly temperature and 1552 40-year-long monthly precipitation time series. The methods include a naïve one based on the monthly values of the last year, as well as the random walk (with drift), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), exponential smoothing state-space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing, Theta and Prophet methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series before, while the use of random walk, BATS, simple exponential smoothing and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. We further investigate how different choices of handling the seasonality and non-normality affect the performance of the models. The results indicate that: (a) all the examined methods apart from the naïve and random walk ones are accurate enough to be used in long-term applications; (b) monthly temperature and precipitation can be forecasted to a level of accuracy which can barely be improved using other methods; (c) the externally applied classical seasonal decomposition results mostly in better forecasts compared to the automatic seasonal decomposition used by the BATS and Prophet methods; and (d) Prophet is competitive, especially when it is combined with externally applied classical seasonal decomposition.

Integrating GIS-based geologic mapping, LiDAR-based lineament analysis and site specific rock slope data to delineate a zone of existing and potential rock slope instability located along the grandfather mountain window-Linville Falls shear zone contact, Southern Appalachian Mountains, Watauga County, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillon, K.A.; Wooten, R.M.; Latham, R.L.; Witt, A.W.; Douglas, T.J.; Bauer, J.B.; Fuemmeler, S.J.

2009-01-01

Landslide hazard maps of Watauga County identify >2200 landslides, model debris flow susceptibility, and evaluate a 14km x 0.5km zone of existing and potential rock slope instability (ZEPRSI) near the Town of Boone. The ZEPRSI encompasses west-northwest trending (WNWT) topographic ridges where 14 active/past-active rock/weathered rock slides occur mainly in rocks of the Grandfather Mountain Window (GMW). The north side of this ridgeline is the GMW / Linville Falls Fault (LFF) contact. Sheared rocks of the Linville Falls Shear Zone (LFSZ) occur along the ridge and locally in the valley north of the contact. The valley is underlain principally by layered granitic gneiss comprising the Linville Falls/Beech Mountain/Stone Mountain Thrust Sheet. The integration of ArcGIS??? - format digital geologic and lineament mapping on a 6m LiDAR (Light Detecting and Ranging) digital elevation model (DEM) base, and kinematic analyses of site specific rock slope data (e.g., presence and degree of ductile and brittle deformation fabrics, rock type, rock weathering state) indicate: WNWT lineaments are expressions of a regionally extensive zone of fractures and faults; and ZEPRSI rock slope failures concentrate along excavated, north-facing LFF/LFSZ slopes where brittle fabrics overprint older metamorphic foliations, and other fractures create side and back release surfaces. Copyright 2009 ARMA, American Rock Mechanics Association.

Seasonal parasitism and host specificity of Trissolcus japonicus in northern China.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinping; Zhang, Feng; Gariepy, Tara; Mason, Peter; Gillespie, Dave; Talamas, Elijah; Haye, Tim

2017-01-01

The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål), native to China, Japan, and Korea, has emerged as a harmful invasive pest of a variety of crops in North America and Europe. The Asian egg parasitoid Trissolcus japonicus has been identified as the most promising agent for classical biological control of invasive H. halys populations. A 4-year study evaluated the fundamental and ecological host ranges of T. japonicus as well as its phenology and impact on H. halys populations in fruit orchards in its native range in northern China. In laboratory no-choice tests, developmental suitability of eight non-target host species for T. japonicus was demonstrated by the successful production of progeny on the majority (>85%) of non-target host species tested. In field-collected, naturally laid egg masses, T. japonicus was the most abundant parasitoid associated with H. halys and Dolycoris baccarum , but was also sporadically found in Plautia crossota . Furthermore, it was regularly reared from sentinel egg masses of Menida violacea , Arma chinensis , and Carbula eoa . The only species that did not support development in the laboratory and field was Cappaea tibialis . Besides the benefit of having a high impact on H. halys populations in Northern China, the risk assessment conducted in the area of origin indicates that native Pentatomidae in North America and Europe could be negatively impacted by T. japonicus . Whether the benefits of T. japonicus outweigh the possible risks will have to be evaluated based on the outcome of additional host range studies in the two invaded regions.

Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yijun

The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

Communicacion Expresiva: Como los ninos nos envian mensajes [and] Comunicacion Receptiva: Como los ninos entienden nuestros mensajes [and] Interacciones de Comunicacion: Hacen falta dos. Hojas informativa de DB-LINK (Communication Interactions: It Takes Two [and] Receptive Communication: How Children Understand Your Messages to Them [and] Expressive Communication: How Children Send Their Messages to You. DB-LINK Fact Sheets).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stremel, Kathleen

This document consists of three separately published fact sheets combined here because of the close relationship of their subject matter. The first fact sheet, "Communication Interactions: It Takes Two" (Kathleen Stremel), defines communication; suggests ways to find opportunities for interactive communication; offers specific suggestions for…

Estrategia de Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas (ABP) para explorar las concepciones alternativas relacionadas al tema estados de agregacion de la materia en estudiantes de nivel elemental =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosado Olivieri, Wilda Y.

Gran parte de la investigacion acerca de la ensenanza de las ciencias se dedica a estudiar la forma o manera en que los estudiantes visualizan los conceptos cientificos. Para Driver (1983) esas ideas o concepciones se conocen como concepciones alternativas; las cuales pueden ocasionar dificultad para comprender los conceptos de las diferentes areas del conocimiento. El proposito de este estudio fue: (a) indagar como las distintas etapas del ABP permiten explorar las concepciones alternativas que poseen los estudiantes de nivel elemental acerca de los estados de agregacion de la materia y, (b) explorar en que medida el ABP permite identificar e incorporar las concepciones alternativas que poseen los estudiantes de nivel elemental con relacion al concepto de estados de agregacion de la materia para facilitar su aprendizaje. Con el fin de explorar las concepciones alternativas en el tema de los estados agregados de la materia se implanto la estrategia de Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas (ABP) con estudiantes de quinto grado de nivel elemental. Se utilizo la metodologia mixta con varias estrategias de recopilacion de datos, como una pre y pos prueba para elucidar el conocimiento previo y al mismo tiempo las concepciones alternativas sobre el tema bajo estudio y luego verificar el aprendizaje en los estudiantes. Asimismo, el uso de mapas conceptuales para determinar la profundidad del tema estudiado y el entrelazamiento de los conceptos Una tercera estrategia fue el grupo focal para tomar en cuenta la impresion de los estudiantes acerca del proyecto ABP. El aspecto colaborativo y cooperativo fue un factor fundamental, ya que el aprendizaje ocurrio en ese contexto educativo. Para los hallazgos de esta investigacion fue tan importante el conocimiento previo como los procesos que se generaban para que la adquisicion del mismo fuera de forma significativa y funcional (Escribano & Del Valle, 2010). La estrategia de ABP constituyo en este estudio una forma para indagar las concepciones alternativas que poseian los estudiantes y a su vez, determinar como el estudiante manejaba dichas concepciones a situaciones que requeririan aplicar su conocimiento para luego modificar las estructuras conceptuales hacia el conocimiento cientifico.

Resultados do desenvolvimento de um propulsor à plasma no Brasil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, I. S.; Ferreira, J. L.

2003-08-01

Uma das partes mais importantes de um satélite é o controle de atitude do mesmo. E se tratando de um satélite científico, a atenção para este sistema deve ser redobrada. Uma possibilidade atraente para executar esta tarefa é a propulsão elétrica. Aqui, mostraremos resultados obtidos pelo propulsor à plasma PHALL-01, desenvolvido na Universidade de Brasília entre 2000 e 2003. Este é derivado do propulsor russo SPT-100 (Stationary Plasma Thruster), mas com o emprego inovador de um arranjo de imãs permanentes como fonte do campo magnético, este último o agente da aceleração do plasma. Esta alteração foi motivada pelo objetivo de que o mesmo operasse com o mínimo de potência elétrica. A partir da formulação teórica do mecanismo de aceleração, tendo como base as equações da magnetohidrodinâmica, pode-se obter vínculos sob os quais o propulsor pudesse ser construído. O mais forte destes é o que dita a topologia do campo magnético. Sendo assim, foram realizadas simulações computacionais, que definiram a geometria do propulsor. Após construído, este foi diagnosticado usando-se sondas de Langmuir e analisadores de energia. Como resultados, obtivemos a distribuição espacial da temperatura, densidade e potencial do plasma, bem como a distribuição angular do feixe produzido pelo mesmo em vários regimes de operação. O espectro de energia do feixe de plasma também foi medido, indicando íons de até 560eV. Combinando estes resultados, calculou-se o empuxo do propulsor: 84mN; e o impulso específico: 1083s. Estes demonstram que o mesmo estará qualificado, num futuro próximo, para o emprego no controle de atitude de satélites científicos, ou até mesmo como parte do conjunto propulsor primário, responsáveis pela transferência de órbitas.

Investigaccion-accion en la sala de clases sobre las creencias de la cultura de la ciencia de un grupo de estudiantes universitarios y su relacion reciproca con el aprendizaje de las ciencias biologicas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordova-Santiago, Lizzette Astrid

La investigacion---accion que se llevo a cabo en la sala de clases tenia como punto de partida las creencias de la cultura de la ciencia de un grupo de estudiantes universitarios para luego examinar sus implicaciones en el proceso de aprendizaje de las Ciencias Biologicas. ¿Que se supone que hagan las creencias en relacion con el aprendizaje? ¿En que consiste incorporar este aspecto a la practica educativa universitaria? Utilizando el modelo de Kemmis y McTaggart (1987) la investigacion-accion se planteo como un proceso dinamico en cuatro momentos en espiral constituidos por la planificacion, la accion, la observacion y la reflexion. Cada una de las fases tuvo una intencion retrospectiva y prospectiva formando una espiral de autorreflexion del conocimiento y la accion. Se llevaron a cabo audio grabaciones en clases y analisis de documentos. Ademas, la profesora-investigadora hizo un portafolio para reflexionar sobre las creencias de la cultura de la ciencia que tienen los estudiantes y las creencias del aprendizaje que tiene la profesora y sobre como la comprension de estos elementos ayudo a mejorar su practica educativa a traves del tiempo. Los resultados obtenidos apuntan a que las creencias de la cultura de la ciencia que tiene el grupo de estudiantes son diversas. Ellos si creen que la ciencia tiene una cultura la cual describieron como: complicada y desconocida que evoluciona constantemente, que es un conjunto de metodos, que es altamente tecnologica, que resuelve problemas de salud, ayuda a interpretar la realidad del mundo que los rodea y su origen y que existen unas intersecciones entre la ciencia y el poder. Sobre las creencias del proceso de aprendizaje de la profesora-investigadora, estas senalan que el modelaje de actores, la vision de la academia que tiene ella asi como la participacion y negociacion entre todos los involucrados en el proceso educativo, son factores que inciden en el proceso de aprendizaje.

Comprension de los conceptos de los enlaces ionico y covalente en estudiantes universitarios del primer curso de quimica general

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballesteros Benavides, Maria Elvira

Para este trabajo utilizamos el estudio de casos cualitativo que se llevo a cabo en una universidad privada de Puerto Rico. Empleamos como unidad de analisis el concepto de enlace quimico, ionico y covalente. Los participantes fueron los estudiantes de la seccion nocturna del curso de Quimica General I. La investigacion se desarrollo por medio de dos entrevistas de persona a persona, observaciones de las expresiones no verbales y la hoja de identificacion de conceptos. Para la triangulacion tomamos en consideracion las preconcepciones erroneas, las concepciones alternativas y el mapa de conceptos de cada participante. Preparamos un mapa de conceptos para el enlace quimico validado por un comite de expertos. Tambien, elaboramos los mapas de conceptos de los participantes que sirvieron para varios propositos: conocer la estructura conceptual, expresar los logros, hacer comparaciones e identificar la presencia de concepciones alternativas. Entre los hallazgos encontramos que todos los participantes poseen conocimiento previo de los enlaces quimicos ionico y covalente y dentro de ese conocimiento existen preconcepciones erroneas mas numerosas para el enlace ionico. Al principio del semestre el 50% de los participantes demostraron tener "carencia fuerte de conceptos" tanto para el enlace ionico como para el covalente. Al finalizar el semestre encontramos en el 40% de los participantes concepciones alternativas tanto para el enlace ionico como para el covalente y el 90% no lograron distinguir un enlace del otro. Nuestras conclusiones fueron que los participantes sin distincion del aprovechamiento academico demostraron tener la tendencia de "carencia fuerte de conceptos" tanto para el enlace ionico como para el covalente, presentaron dificultad al integrar los conceptos de los enlaces quimicos ionico y covalente que se pusieron de manifiesto al dar los ejemplos. Las preconcepciones erroneas contribuyen en el desarrollo de las concepciones alternativas. Ademas, los participantes no lograron diferenciar los dos enlaces quimicos. Esto implica que reflexionemos sobre la necesidad de revisar tanto las competencias cognoscitivas como la forma de ensenar quimica en el salon de clase. Recomendamos indagar y dar importancia al conocimiento previo de los estudiantes, enfatizar la ensenanza de los conceptos y propiciar el aprendizaje con significado.

Prevalence of Diphyllobothrium latum (Cestoda: Diphyllobothriidae) plerocercoids in fish species from four Italian lakes and risk for the consumers.

PubMed

Gustinelli, Andrea; Menconi, Vasco; Prearo, Marino; Caffara, Monica; Righetti, Marzia; Scanzio, Tommaso; Raglio, Annibale; Fioravanti, Maria Letizia

2016-10-17

In recent years there has been a re-emergence of diphyllobothriasis by Diphyllobothrium latum (Cestoda: Diphyllobothriidae) in Italy, France and Switzerland, where in the past this fish-borne zoonosis was widespread and then virtually disappeared. A change in eating habits such as the consumption of raw/undercooked freshwater fish, has led to an increased risk for consumers of ingesting infective larvae of D. latum. A survey on the factors responsible for the re-emergence of human diphyllobothriasis in Italy was carried out from March 2013 to December 2014. The aim of this study was to assess the diffusion of D. latum plerocercoids in the fish populations of the sub-alpine lakes of Maggiore, Como, Iseo and Garda, updating the scarce historical data and assessing a preliminary "risk level" of the lacustrine environments and fish species under investigation. A total of 2228 fish belonging to 5 species, 690 from Lake Maggiore, 500 from Lake Como, 655 from Lake Iseo and 383 from Lake Garda were submitted to parasitological examination. The presence of D. latum plerocercoid larvae was detected in 6.6%, 25.4% and 7.6% of perch (Perca fluviatilis) from Lakes Maggiore, Como and Iseo respectively. The parasite was also present in pike (Esox lucius) with prevalence values ranging from 71.4 to 84.2% and in 3.6-3.8% of burbot (Lota lota) from Lakes Iseo and Como. Fish from Lake Garda were negative as well as sampled whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) and shad (Alosa fallax lacustris). The results of this survey showed a widespread presence of D. latum plerocercoid larvae in Maggiore, Como and Iseo fish populations. Urban fecal contamination of water is still a key issue to be resolved, together with the improvement of communication with consumers regarding the best dietary habits and the most effective processes of parasite inactivation, required for the consumption of raw/undercooked fish caught in high-risk areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Análise sobre o Conhecimento de um Grupo de Alunos do Ensino Médio da Rede Estadual de São Paulo sobre Termos e Fenômenos Astronômicos do Cotidiano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, E. F.; Voelzke, M. R.; Amaral, L. H.

2007-08-01

Embora os Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais do Ensino Médio (PCN-EM) e as orientações complementares a esses Parâmetros (PCN+) apontem a importância de uma abordagem significativa de conceitos relacionados à astronomia nas aulas de Física, muitos estudantes terminam o Ensino Médio (EM) sem compreender a razão de certos acontecimentos de origem celeste, ainda que estes façam parte de seu cotidiano. Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os conhecimentos básicos em astronomia dos alunos de EM da escola estadual Batista Renzi, bem como investigar os meios através dos quais estes conhecimentos foram adquiridos. Para tanto foi elaborado um questionário de múltipla escolha aplicado a 310 alunos distribuídos entre as três séries do EM dos períodos matutino e noturno. Dessa forma, observou-se que apenas 34,5% relacionaram as estações do ano à inclinação do eixo de rotação da Terra, 21,3% indicaram a influência gravitacional da Lua e do Sol como responsáveis pelo fenômeno das marés, 24,5% indicaram corretamente quais são os objetos celestes mais próximos da Terra, 36,1% identificaram ano-luz como uma medida de distância e 34,2% reconheceram uma estrela cadente como meteoro. Em contrapartida, 67,1% compreendiam a sucessão entre dia e noite, 73,9% identificaram o Sol como estrela e 52,3% relacionaram o Big Bang à origem do Universo. Além disso, foram comparadas as respostas de alunos de diferentes séries e períodos, observando-se, dentre outras coisas, que os estudantes do terceiro ano apresentam um percentual de acertos semelhante ao dos alunos do primeiro, caracterizando que a abordagem de tópicos relacionados à astronomia no EM não tem contribuído para uma maior compreensão dos fenômenos e conceitos.

Determinação de regiões de órbitas diretas estáveis ao redor da Lua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Melo, C. F.; Winter, O. C.; Vieira Neto, E.

2003-08-01

Neste Trabalho estamos investigando regiões do sistema Terra-Lua que contêm órbitas diretas estáveis ao redor da Lua visando a utilização destas órbitas em futuras missões de veículos espaciais como alternativas de trajetórias com baixo custo de manutenção. Adotando-se o problema restrito de três corpos, Terra-Lua-partícula, a localização e a extensão destas regiões de estabilidade foram investigadas numericamente considerando como estável toda órbita que permanece ao redor a Lua por, no mínimo, 1000 dias com energia de dois corpos da partícula em relação à Lua negativa. A estabilidade de tais regiões está associada a duas famílias de órbitas periódicas simples H1 e H2 e a órbitas quase-periódicas associadas a elas. Uma vez identificadas as regiões de estabilidade passamos a analisá-las introduzindo, paulatinamente, outras interações relevantes ao sistema como as perturbações do Sol (via problema restrito de quatro corpos), das marés, da pressão de radiação e do achatamento terrestre. Os resultados encontrados até o momento mostram que a perturbação do Sol é a única que reduz significativamente o tamanho das regiões de estabilidade. Também estamos investigando o comportamento de tais regiões quando características intrínsecas do sistema como as excentricidades das órbitas da Terra e da Lua e a inclinação da órbita Lua são consideradas. Com este estudo estamos reunindo informações que nos permitirão compreender a evolução das regiões de estabilidade no sistema Terra-Lua, bem como estabelecer parâmetros adequados para a utilização das trajetórias estáveis em futuras missões espaciais. Agradecimentos: Este projeto conta com o apoio do CNPq, da Capes e da Fapesp.

Life Course Experiences, Pain and Suffering: A Case Study of an Older Mexican American Woman with Mobility Impairment

PubMed Central

Walker, Janiece L.; Harrison, Tracie C.; Hendrickson, Sherry G.

2012-01-01

There is a dearth of literature examining how adversity shapes the experiences of pain and/or suffering in a middle aged Mexican American women. The purpose of this qualitative descriptive study was to understand pain and suffering from a life course perspective as described by a Mexican American woman aging with early onset mobility impairment. This Hispanic woman experienced episodes of abuse and rejection over the life course, which may have significantly influenced her pain and suffering experience in adulthood. This adds to the literature on how adversity influences later life pain experience and provides insight on why pharmacological treatment alone may not be as successful as a holistic intervention. Hay escasez de literatura que examine cómo la adversidad da forma a las experiencias de dolor y / o sufrimiento en mujeres mexicana-americana mayores de edad. El propósito de este estudio descriptivo cualitativo fue comprender el dolor y el sufrimiento desde una perspectiva de ciclo de vida como descrito por una mujer mexicana-americana envejeciendo con inicio temprano de deterioro de movilidad. Esta Latina experimentó episodios de maltrato y rechazo, que se percibió haber afectado su experiencia de dolor y sufrimiento luego como adulta. Este estudio aumenta la literatura sobre cómo la adversidad influya la experiencia de dolor más tarde en la vida, y nos permite comprender mejor como el tratamiento farmacológico por sí solo no es tan exitoso como pueda ser una intervención integral. PMID:24830728

PubMed

Camporro, Fernando Astur; Gutierrez Magaldi, Ignacio; Bulacio, Exequiel

2017-09-08

Introducción: El tabaquismo es la primera causa evitable de muerte en el mundo. El cigarrillo electrónico (CE), es un dispositivo que simula a los cigarrillos convencionales y permite inhalar nicotina y otras sustancias de forma vaporizada, sin combustión de tabaco. Su conocimiento por parte de la población general, así como su comercialización y consumo viene en constante aumento. Es utilizado en todo el mundo con el objetivo de disminuir el consumo de tabaco, lograr su abandono o poder utilizarlo en lugares públicos donde el consumo de cigarrillos convencionales está prohibido. Efectos nocivos sobre la salud: Su utilización se ha asociado a neumonía lipoidea e irritación de la vía aérea superior y toxicidad por nicotina. Presenta sustancias cancerígenas como nitrosaminas, formaldeido y metales como el niquel, cromo y plomo. Aumenta la resistencia de la vía aérea, efecto que es similar al que se produce después de la inhalación del humo del tabaco. Eficacia para dejar de fumar: No hay hasta el momento trabajos que demuestren con poder estadístico y buena metodología que este producto sea eficaz para dejar de fumar.  Conclusiones: De acuerdo a la evidencia disponible, no podemos descartar que el uso del cigarrillo electrónico no tenga riesgos para la salud. La seguridad y eficacia de los cigarrillos electrónicos como ayuda para el abandono del hábito tabáquico no han sido demostradas.

[Not Available].

PubMed

Domínguez, Raúl; Garnacho-Castaño, Manuel Vicente; Maté-Muñoz, José Luis

2016-06-30

La fuerza influye directamente en el estado de salud y en la capacidad de fitness, motivo por el que el entrenamiento contra resistencias o resistance training (RT) se incluye dentro de aquellos programas de ejercicio encaminados a mejorar la salud y calidad de vida. Debido a que muchasenfermedades cursan con alteración de la masa y funcionalidad muscular y a que el RT es la principal modalidad de ejercicio encaminada a mejorar la función muscular, el objetivo de la presente revisión bibliográfica ha sido exponer las evidencias actuales sobre las adaptaciones delRT, así como su posible aplicación en patologías como la obesidad, diabetes, dislipemia, hipertensión, cáncer, Parkinson, esclerosis múltiple o fibromialgia. El RT en estas enfermedades puede aumentar los niveles de masa muscular, disminuyendo los niveles de masa grasa, los nivelesde ácidos grasos en sangre y la glucemia, incrementando la sensibilidad a la insulina, y disminuyendo los niveles de citokinas inflamatorias. El RT, además, mejora el gasto cardiaco y la funcionalidad endotelial, regulando la tensión arterial e incrementando el consumo de oxígeno. Las ganancias de fuerza muscular mejoran la funcionalidad y la calidad de vida, especialmente en población con una afectación neuromuscular grave, como pudieran ser los enfermos de esclerosis múltiple, fibromialgia o Parkinson. Por ello, el RT debe ser incorporado como parte del tratamiento en las personas que presentan determinado tipo de patologías.

Valorisation of Como Historical Cadastral Maps Through Modern Web Geoservices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovelli, M. A.; Minghini, M.; Zamboni, G.

2012-07-01

Cartographic cultural heritage preserved in worldwide archives is often stored in the original paper version only, thus restricting both the chances of utilization and the range of possible users. The Web C.A.R.T.E. system addressed this issue with regard to the precious cadastral maps preserved at the State Archive of Como. Aim of the project was to improve the visibility and accessibility of this heritage using the latest free and open source tools for processing, cataloguing and web publishing the maps. The resulting architecture should therefore assist the State Archive of Como in managing its cartographic contents. After a pre-processing consisting of digitization and georeferencing steps, maps were provided with metadata, compiled according to the current Italian standards and managed through an ad hoc version of the GeoNetwork Opensource geocatalog software. A dedicated MapFish-based webGIS client, with an optimized version also for mobile platforms, was built for maps publication and 2D navigation. A module for 3D visualization of cadastral maps was finally developed using the NASA World Wind Virtual Globe. Thanks to a temporal slidebar, time was also included in the system producing a 4D Graphical User Interface. The overall architecture was totally built with free and open source software and allows a direct and intuitive consultation of historical maps. Besides the notable advantage of keeping original paper maps intact, the system greatly simplifies the work of the State Archive of Como common users and together widens the same range of users thanks to the modernization of map consultation tools.

Percepción de competencia y adiestramiento profesional especializado relativos al VIH/SIDA en estudiantes y profesionales de la salud: el estigma como un indicador de necesidad

PubMed Central

RODRÍGUEZ, Yarimar ROSA; DÍAZ, Nelson VARAS

2009-01-01

El proceso de estigmatización asume una devaluación de la persona debido a una característica o marca que haya sido identificada socialmente y que permita que se le describa como diferente. Desde que se desató la epidemia del VIH/SIDA, vivir con la enfermedad ha sido señalado de manera social como una marca estigmatizante. Las manifestaciones de dicha estigmatización se han documentado entre profesionales de la salud. Este estigma puede afectar los servicios de salud que las personas que viven con VIH/SIDA reciben de estos profesionales. Los objetivos de esta investigación fueron explorar: 1) la percepción que tienen estudiantes y profesionales de la salud sobre su nivel de competencia para ofrecer servicios a personas que viven con VIH/SIDA, 2) las opiniones de éstos sobre el tipo de adiestramiento profesional recibido y la necesidad del mismo, y 3) la manifestación de actitudes estigmatizantes como indicadores de necesidad de adiestramiento profesional. La muestra total del estudio estuvo compuesta por 80 de diversas profesiones de la salud. Los resultados reflejan que algunos/as de los/as participantes han recibido formación en VIH pero ésta no ha sido suficiente para contrarrestar las nociones estigmatizantes. Discutimos las implicaciones de los resultados para investigaciones futuras y el desarrollo de intervenciones con vías de minimizar las nociones estigmatizantes en los escenarios de salud. PMID:20011236

Alejarse como proceso social: niños y ancianos «abandonados» en Ayacucho1

PubMed Central

Leinaweaver, Jessaca

2013-01-01

En investigaciones previas sobre el acogimiento familiar y la adopción en Ayacucho, se ha podido descubrir cómo los ayacuchanos adquieren y producen relaciones sociales. Mientras negocian creativamente los discursos y espacios construidos simultáneamente por instituciones, comunidades, y estructuras sociales, van adquiriendo nuevas formas de relacionarse. Este artículo discute el proceso opuesto: el deshacerse de relaciones de parentesco, y el proceso social del abandono o alejamiento. Cuando se aleja a una persona de su familia o su comunidad, los que se quedan en ella llegan a entenderse como ciertos tipos de personas. En los estudios de caso discutidos aquí, recopilados a través de una detallada y cuidadosa observación participante y de entrevistas etnográficas grabadas entre 2001 y 2007, se puede ver cómo, después de un alejamiento social, los individuos que alejan se reinterpretan como sujetos que se encuentran superándose o volviéndose modernos, o bien sacrificándose. PMID:25177044

Cálculos ab initio con correlación electrónica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merchán Bonete, M.

Estamos entrando en una era donde la ortogonalidad entre las investigaciones de carácter experimental y de naturaleza teórica se irá difuminando progresivamente y la problemática a resolver quedará en escena como el único actor principal de la obra. Como premisa para una cooperación teórico-experimental de igual a igual, la metodología químico-cuántica utilizada debe ser capaz de ofrecer resultados de carácter predictivo. Sin duda, esta madurez en la metodología químico-cuántica ya la hemos alcanzado hace algunos años, tal y como muestra entre otras muchas, la labor que nuestro grupo ha realizado en el transcurso de la última década, dentro del campo de la Espectroscopía Teórica. Los estudios realizados comprenden una amplia gama de sistemas, variando tanto en tamaño como en complejidad, abordando problemáticas espectroscópicas consideradas tradicionalmente como especialmente controvertidas. Nuestra contribución científica más relevante reside en el carácter cuantitativo de las asignaciones espectroscópicas que hemos propuesto en base a resultados ab initio. Recordemos que en los años noventa los resultados ab initio solían presentar para las energías de excitación de sistemas de tamaño molecular moderado, como el benceno, errores de más de 1 eV. En comparación con el éxito relativo de los métodos semiempíricos, la frustración de la metodología ab initio quedaba todavía más patente. Los estudios que hemos presentado representan una comprensión profunda de los espectros electrónicos en sistemas orgánicos claves, mostrando el camino a seguir para obtener asignaciones espectroscópicas precisas (entre 0.1-0.2 eV). La naturaleza del método CASPT2 junto al diseño de estrategias computacionales nos ha permitido alcanzar el carácter cuantitativo con el que se caracterizan nuestras contribuciones[1,2]. Por todo ello, algunos de los trabajos publicados se consideran clásicos dentro del campo, pues en cierto modo definen el campo, y se reflejan en libros publicados recientemente. En la conferencia se analizarán ciertos pormenores de las investigaciones realizadas. El tipo de aplicaciones llevadas a cabo hasta la fecha se ilustrará mediante el estudio teórico del espectro electrónico de ciclooctatetraeno. Dando un paso más en la evolución de nuestra investigación, pretendemos en la actualidad describir, desde un formalismo teórico y al mismo nivel de exigencia, los mecanismos subyacentes que tienen lugar en las reacciones biológicas fototoinducidas, es decir, reacciones que se inician mediante la absorción de luz[3]. Como muestra de la caracterización de los procesos fotofísicos y fotoquímicos en fotobiología teórica, hemos elegido la descripción de la conversión interna ultrarrápida que tiene lugar en los cromóforos del ADN. Los estados excitados de las moléculas de los ácidos nucleicos presentan tiempos de vida media que se encuentran en el rango de sub-picosegundos, sugiriendo la presencia de un canal ultrarrápido de conversión interna, lo que normalmente se asocia en la fotoquímica contemporánea a una intersección cónica entre el estado excitado y el fundamental[4]. De esta forma nuestro ADN previene de forma eficaz posibles reacciones en el estado excitado y se revela como un excelente protector solar.

Astronomy in High School: Using a Mini-Planetarium to Understand Details of the Apparent Movement of Stars. (Spanish Title: Astronomía en la Escuela Secundaria: Comprendiendo los Detalles del Movimiento Aparente de Las Estrellas con un Miniplanetario.) Astronomia no Ensino Médio: Compreendendo Detalhes do Movimento Aparente das Estrelas com um Miniplanetário

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dos Santos Leão, Demetrius

2013-07-01

The aim of this article is to present part of the results obtained by the intervention made from the author's Master degree project, which consisted in the development of a set of Astronomy classes for first year of High School students from a private school in the "Distrito Federal", Brasilia, Brazil, making use of a didactical material called mini-planetarium (MP) as the main resource. Using Paulo Freire's contextualization and dialogicity ideas as a theoretical framework guided by these lessons, it was proposed to the students the assembly and application of that resource in a planetarium session. During the project, some subjects such as the apparent trajectory of stars through Brasilia's sky, the location of the cardinal points beginning from the Southern Cross constellation, the color of stars and the stars being seen from a particular place were emphasized. It was found that the students showed an improvement of their understanding about these subjects, as well as a significant excitement with the developed methodology. El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar algunos de los resultados obtenidos en el proyecto de la tesis de maestría del autor, que incluyó el desarrollo de algunas clases de Astronomía, con estudiantes del primer año del bachillerato de una escuela privada del Distrito Federal (Brasilia, Brasil), utilizando como materia prima didáctica el recurso llamado miniplanetario (MP). Utilizando como base teórica orientadora de esas clases las ideas de contextualización y dialógica de Paulo Freire, fue propuesto a los estudiantes el montaje y la utilización de este recurso en una función de planetario. Durante el proyecto, se enfatizaron asuntos tales como la trayectoria aparente de las estrellas del cielo de Brasilia, la ubicación de los puntos cardinales a partir de la constelación de la Cruz del Sur, los colores de las estrellas y las estrellas vistas desde una localidad determinada. Se constató que los estudiantes mostraron una mejora en la comprensión de estas cuestiones y demostraron un gran interés por esta metodología. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar parte dos resultados obtidos com a intervenção feita como projeto da dissertação de mestrado do autor, que consistiu no desenvolvimento de um conjunto de aulas de Astronomia, com alunos do 1º Ano do Ensino Médio de uma escola da rede privada do Distrito Federal (Brasília, Brasil), empregando como recurso principal um material didático chamado miniplanetário (MP). Utilizando como pressuposto teórico norteador dessas aulas as ideias de contextualização e dialogicidade de Paulo Freire, foi proposta aos estudantes a montagem e utilização desse recurso em uma sessão de planetário. Durante o projeto, enfatizaram-se assuntos como a trajetória aparente das estrelas para o céu de Brasília, a localização dos pontos cardeais a partir da constelação do Cruzeiro do Sul, as cores das estrelas e as estrelas vistas de uma determinada localidade. Apurou-se que os alunos apresentaram melhoria na compreensão desses assuntos, bem como demonstraram expressiva empolgação com essa metodologia desenvolvida.

Raízes pós-mitológicas da Astronomia Clássica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Bartolo, L.; Villas da Rocha, J. F.

2004-02-01

Apresentamos como a invenção de um modelo astronômico e cosmológico fundado em causas naturais foi um processo gestado num ambiente cultural específico, o do advento do pensamento pós-mitológico, que tem como sua raiz mais funda a trajetória particular da Grécia Antiga, com ênfase na resolução de uma grave crise social e a evolução do mundo clássico para o contexto espiritual de um império universal.

The Douro estuarine plume: Detection, processes and dynamics =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendes, Renato Paulo dos Santos

O Douro e um dos maiores rios da Peninsula Iberica, constituindo a maior descarga de agua doce para o Oceano Atlântico na costa noroeste portuguesa. A sua pluma estuarina tem particular relevância na dinâmica costeira e na modulacao de fenomenos biogeoquimicos. Sao objetivos desta dissertacao contribuir para a compreensao dos processos fisicos associados a geracao e propagacao da pluma estuarina do Rio Douro no oceano, assim como para o conhecimento dos seus padroes de dispersao e da forma como estes alteram a hidrologia e a circulacao costeira, considerando os agentes forcadores tipicos deste fenomeno (caudal fluvial, vento e mare) e indices climaticos relevantes. Para concretizacao destes objetivos foram desenvolvidas e aplicadas metodologias inovadoras de processamento de dados de detecao remota, assim como novas implementacoes estuarinas e costeiras de modelos numericos. Atraves de imagens MODIS, otimizadas para o estudo de fenomenos costeiros, efetuou-se uma detecao rigorosa da pluma. Identificou-se uma relacao entre o sinal turbido nLw555 e o caudal, demonstrando-se este produto como um bom proxy para a observacao da pluma no oceano. As escalas temporais e espaciais da pluma foram caraterizadas atraves destas imagens, combinadas com dados de caudal fluvial, mare, vento e precipitacao, e tambem com indices climaticos relevantes. Para compreender a propagacao da pluma e caracterizar a sua dinâmica e impacto na circulacao costeira, foi desenvolvida uma aplicacao 3D de modelos estuarinos e costeiros com malhas aninhadas de resolucao variavel. Definiramse e analisaram-se diferentes cenarios de vento e descarga fluvial. A interacao da pluma do Rio Douro e do Minho foi ainda analisada atraves dos resultados de simulacoes baseadas num evento de inverno. Os compositos turbidos mostraram que a pluma e facilmente detetada quando o caudal e maior que 500 m3 s??1. A descarga fluvial e o vento sao os principais forcadores da sua propagacao, enquanto a mare e apenas importante na regiao proxima a embocadura do estuario. Observaram-se relacoes a uma escala interanual entre a turbidez da pluma e os indices climaticos East Atlantic e NAO, com uma correlacao maxima identificada com 1 e 3 meses de desfasamento, respetivamente. Com base nos resultados das simulacoes efetuadas, a pluma e classificada como de larga escala e de advecao superficial, apresentando caracteristicas de uma pluma prototipica. Em condicoes de caudal moderado a elevado, a descarga estuarina e suficiente para gerar uma corrente costeira para norte sem acao do vento. Em eventos de ventos leste, a propagacao da pluma e similar ao caso sem vento, com um aumento da velocidade da corrente. Uma corrente costeira para sul e unicamente identificada sob condicoes de forte vento de oeste. Ventos de norte tendem a estender a pluma para o largo, com uma inclinacao na direcao sudoeste, enquanto ventos de sul intensificam a corrente para norte, sendo a mistura das plumas do Douro e do Minho uma consequencia possivel. A analise desta interacao apontou a contribuicao do Douro como importante na estabilizacao da WIBP e nas trocas de agua entre o oceano e as Rias Baixas. A interacao da pluma do Douro com estuarios localizados a sul da sua foz e a confirmacao in situ da recirculacao observada nos resultados numericos afiguram-se como temas relevantes para investigacoes futuras. None

Patient safety and nursing: interface with stress and Burnout Syndrome.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Cláudia Cristiane Filgueira Martins; Santos, Viviane Euzébia Pereira; Sousa, Paulo

2017-01-01

To analyze studies on stress, Burnout Syndrome, and patient safety in the scope of nursing care in the hospital environment. This was an integrative literature review. Data collection was performed in February 2016 in the following databases: Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online - PubMed/MEDLINE, Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences - LILACS. Ten scientific productions were selected, which listed that factors contributing to stress and Burnout Syndrome of nursing professionals are the work environment as a source of stress, and excessive workload as a source of failures. The analysis found that the stress and Burnout Syndrome experienced by these professionals lead to greater vulnerability and development of unsafe care, and factors such as lack of organizational support can contribute to prevent these failures. Analisar estudos que versam sobre o estresse e Síndrome de Burnout, bem como a segurança do paciente no âmbito da assistência de enfermagem no ambiente hospitalar. Tratou-se de uma revisão integrativa de literatura. O levantamento dos dados foi efetuado nas bases de dados Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online - PubMed / MEDLINE, Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde -LILACS em fevereiro de 2016. Foram selecionadas10 produções científicas que apontaram que os fatores que contribuem para o estresse e a Síndrome de Burnout dos profissionais de enfermagem são o ambiente de trabalho como fonte de estresse e a carga de trabalho excessiva como geradora de falhas. A análise apontou que o estresse e a Síndrome de Burnout vivenciada por esses profissionais acarretam maior vulnerabilidade ao desenvolvimento de uma assistência insegura e que fatores como a falta de apoio organizacional podem contribuir para dirimir essas falhas.

XAS Study at Mo and Co K-Edges of the Sulfidation of a CoMo / Al2O3 Hydrotreating Catalyst

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pichon, C.; Gandubert, A. D.; Legens, C.

2007-02-02

Because of its impact on environment, the removal of sulfur is an indispensable step, called hydrotreatment, in the refining of petroleum. One of the most commonly used hydrotreating catalysts is CoMo-type catalyst which is composed of molybdenum disulfide slabs promoted by cobalt atoms (CoMoS phase) and well dispersed on a high specific area alumina. As far as the highest sulfur content allowed in gasoline and diesel is continually decreasing, more and more efficient and active hydrotreating catalysts are required. In order to optimize the reactivity of the CoMo-type catalyst in hydrotreatment, a better understanding of the processes used to producemore » the active phase (CoMoS slabs) of the catalyst is necessary. The study reported here deals with the sulfiding mechanism of the slabs and the influence of temperature on the phenomenon. Ex situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XANES and EXAFS) was used to study the evolution of the structure of CoMo-type catalyst sulfided at various temperatures (from 293 to 873 K). XAS analysis was performed at both molybdenum and cobalt K-edges to obtain a cross-characterization of the sulfidation of the slabs. It evidenced the formation of various compounds, including two molybdenum oxides, MoS3 (or MoS3-like compound) and Co9S8, at specific steps of the sulfiding process. It showed the role of intermediate played by MoS3 (or MoS3-like compound) during the formation of the slabs and the competition between the appearance of promoted slabs (CoMoS phase) and Co9S8. At last, it leaded to the proposal of a mechanism for the sulfidation of the catalyst.« less

Contribution to the scintillation detection optimization in double phase detectors for direct detection of dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balan, Catalin

Na ultima decada, foram feitos grandes progressos no desenvolvimento dos detetores de detecao direta das particulas que constituem a materia negra. Com estrategias do aumento gradual do volume do alvo e, simultaneamente, de reducao dos niveis de fundo, a experiencia XENON obteve resultados muito bons e perspetivas promissoras para a detecao de materia negra. Tarefas relativas a analise de dados experimentais adquiridos com o detetor de dupla fase em uso, assim como as simulacoes do campo eletrico, desenvolvimento, montagem e testes para o proximo detetor XENON1T, assim como a participacao regular na manutencao geral e monitorizacao do prototipo atual XENON100 no LNGS, constituiram o plano de trabalhos para as atividades de investigacao do presente doutoramento e a minha contribuicao para a otimizacao da detecao de cintilacao nos detetores da experiencia XENON. A necessidade de alcancar niveis elevados de sensibilidade, requer inovacao em todos os aspetos fisicos do detetor, assim como a reducao de todas as fontes de radioatividade que contribuem para o fundo. O modo mais indicado de operacao para os detetores com enchimento a Xe no estado liquido e gasoso envolve a medicao da cintilacao primaria e da secundaria provenientes da interacao das particulas no Xe liquido. A razao entre estes dois sinais permite diferenciar claramente a maior parte dos eventos correspondentes as fundo dos eventos correspondentes a WIMPs. Deste modo, a leitura dos sinais correspondentes a cintilacao e de extrema importancia. A amplitude do sinal de cintilacao antes dos fotossensores e maximizada atraves da otimizacao de varios parametros, tais como a geometria do alvo do detetor, a transparencia das grelhas dos eletrodos, a uniformidade do ganho em cintilacao secundaria e a utilizacao de material reflectivo para cobrir as superficies que nao sao fotossensiveis.

Esquizofrenia y trastorno en el consumo de sustancias: prevalencia y characterísticas sociodemográficas en la población Latina

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Castro, Lorena; Raventós-Vorst, Henriette; Escamilla, Michael

2012-01-01

El interés por comprender la co-morbilidad de la esquizofrenia y el trastorno en el uso de sustancias, ha aumentado debido al incremento de este diagnóstico, a los efectos negativos observados en el sujeto y a los costos en los servicios de salud. Este trastorno dual puede tener efectos dramáticos en el curso clínico del trastorno psicótico tales como: mayores recaídas, re-hospitalizaciones, síntomas más severos, no adherencia al tratamiento antipsicótico, cambios marcados del humor, aumento en el grado de hostilidad e ideación suicida, así como alteraciones en otras áreas del funcionamiento incluyendo violencia, victimización, indigencia y problemas legales. La literatura proveniente en particular de Estados Unidos y Europa sugiere que el rango de prevalencia para este diagnóstico puede oscilar entre el 10% hasta el 70%. En este estudio, revisamos la prevalencia del diagnóstico dual de esquizofrenia y trastorno en el uso sustancias, así como sus características sociodemográficas, con base en la literatura disponible alrededor del mundo dando énfasis en la poblacion latina. A pesar de que este diagnóstico es ampliamente aceptado, se conoce poco sobre su prevalencia en la población latina, sobre los factores ambientales, demográficos, clínicos y otras características de estos individuos. Un mejor conocimiento sobre este diagnóstico permitiría mejorar los métodos para la detección y adecuada valoración del trastorno en el uso de sustancias en personas con trastornos metales severos como la esquizofrenia. PMID:21404151

Impact of economic conditions on the secondary sex ratio in a post-communist economy.

PubMed

Ządzińska, E; Rosset, I; Mikulec, A; Domański, C; Pawłowski, B

2011-06-01

According to the Trivers-Willard hypothesis the secondary sex ratio (SSR, the ratio of male to female newborns [M/F]) should be positively related to the parents' living conditions. This also means that if in some population parents experience environmental (e.g. economic) stress, the SSR should be relatively low. If this holds true, the fluctuations in the SSR of offspring could be one of the ways the human population reacts to environmental (and also socio-economic) changes. Although confirmed for many human populations, such a relationship was not observed in the populations living in the communist-era planned-economy countries until recently. We test the hypothesis that economic stress in Poland after the communist era is also related to the SSR decrease. Using quarterly data from the years 1995-2007 about the total number of live male (M) and female (F) newborns born in central Poland (sample size=310,532), we calculated the time series of the SSR. The quarterly economic conditions of the studied population within the period under consideration constituted the time series of the percentage change in private consumption at constant prices of the year 2000. The relationship between the SSR and the economic conditions in the analyzed 47 quarters of the year was tested with the use of the ARMA models. We have found that four quarters (one year) after the occurrence of economic stress there was a decline in the SSR. This result is consistent with the Trivers-Willard hypothesis at the population level in a modern free-trade economy of a post-communist country. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Temporal variability of mass transport across Canary Islands Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero-Díaz, Ángeles; Rodríguez-Santana, Ángel; José Machín, Francisco; García-Weil, Luis; Sangrà, Pablo; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio

2014-05-01

The equatorward flowing Canary Current (CC) is the main feature of the circulation in the Canary Islands region. The CC flow perturbation by the Canary Islands originate the Canary Eddy Corridor which is the major pathway for long lived eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic (Sangrà et al., 2009, DSR). Therefore the variability of the CC passing through the Canary Archipelago will have both local and regional importance. Past studies on the CC variability trough the Canary Islands point out a clearly seasonal variability (Fraile-Nuez et al, 2010 (JGR); Hernández-Guerra et al, 2002 (DSR)). However those studies where focused on the eastern islands channels missing the variability through the western island channels which are the main source of long lived eddies. In order to fill this gap from November 2012 until September 2013 we conducted trimonthly surveys crossing the whole islands channels using opportunity ships (Naviera Armas Ferries). XBT and XCTD where launched along the cross channels transects. Additionally a closed box circling the Archipelago was performed on October 2013 as part of the cruise RAPROCAN-2013 (IEO) using also XBT and XCTD. Dynamical variables where derived inferring salinity from S(T,p) analytical relationships for the region updated with new XCTD data. High resolution, vertical sections of temperature, potential density, geostrophic velocity and transport where obtained. Our preliminary results suggest that the CC suffer a noticeable acceleration in those islands channels where eddy shedding is more frequent. They also indicate a clearly seasonal variability of the flows passing the islands channels. With this regard we observed significant differences on the obtained seasonal variability with respect the cited past studies on the eastern islands channel (Lanzarote / Fuerteventura - Africa coast). This work was co-funded by Canary Government (TRAMIC project: PROID20100092) and the European Union (FEDER).

The economic impact of a smoke-free bylaw on restaurant and bar sales in Ottawa, Canada.

PubMed

Luk, Rita; Ferrence, Roberta; Gmel, Gerhard

2006-05-01

On 1 August 2001, the City of Ottawa (Canada's Capital) implemented a smoke-free bylaw that completely prohibited smoking in work-places and public places, including restaurants and bars, with no exemption for separately ventilated smoking rooms. This paper evaluates the effects of this bylaw on restaurant and bar sales. DATA AND MEASURES: We used retail sales tax data from March 1998 to June 2002 to construct two outcome measures: the ratio of licensed restaurant and bar sales to total retail sales and the ratio of unlicensed restaurant sales to total retail sales. Restaurant and bar sales were subtracted from total retail sales in the denominator of these measures. We employed an interrupted time-series design. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention analysis was used to test for three possible impacts that the bylaw might have on the sales of restaurants and bars. We repeated the analysis using regression with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) errors method to triangulate our results. Outcome measures showed declining trends at baseline before the bylaw went into effect. Results from ARIMA intervention and regression analyses did not support the hypotheses that the smoke-free bylaw had an impact that resulted in (1) abrupt permanent, (2) gradual permanent or (3) abrupt temporary changes in restaurant and bar sales. While a large body of research has found no significant adverse impact of smoke-free legislation on restaurant and bar sales in the United States, Australia and elsewhere, our study confirms these results in a northern region with a bilingual population, which has important implications for impending policy in Europe and other areas.

Phage particles harboring antibiotic resistance genes in fresh-cut vegetables and agricultural soil.

PubMed

Larrañaga, Olatz; Brown-Jaque, Maryury; Quirós, Pablo; Gómez-Gómez, Clara; Blanch, Anicet R; Rodríguez-Rubio, Lorena; Muniesa, Maite

2018-06-01

Bacteriophages are ubiquitously distributed prokaryotic viruses that are more abundant than bacteria. As a consequence of their life cycle, phages can kidnap part of their host's genetic material, including antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), which released phage particles transfer in a process called transduction. The spread of ARGs among pathogenic bacteria currently constitutes a serious global health problem. In this study, fresh vegetables (lettuce, spinach and cucumber), and cropland soil were screened by qPCR for ten ARGs (bla TEM , bla CTX-M-1 group, bla CTX-M-9 group, bla OXA-48 , bla VIM , mecA, sul1, qnrA, qnrS and armA) in their viral DNA fraction. The presence of ARGs in the phage DNA was analyzed before and after propagation experiments in an Escherichia coli host strain to evaluate the ability of the phage particles to infect a host. ARGs were found in the phage DNA fraction of all matrices, although with heterogeneous values. ARG prevalence was significantly higher in lettuce and soil, and the most common overall were β-lactamases. After propagation experiments, an increase in ARG densities in phage particles was observed in samples of all four matrices, confirming that part of the isolated phage particles were infectious. This study reveals the abundance of free, replicative ARG-containing phage particles in vegetable matrices and cropland soil. The particles are proposed as vehicles for resistance transfer in these environments, where they can persist for a long time, with the possibility of generating new resistant bacterial strains. Ingestion of these mobile genetic elements may also favor the emergence of new resistances, a risk not previously considered. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical evidence of liquid crystalline mesophases of a lollipop shaped model in two dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Lemus, G. R.; Armas-Pérez, J. C.; Chapela, G. A.; Quintana-H., J.

2017-12-01

Small alterations in the molecular details may produce noticeable changes in the symmetry of the resulting phase behavior. It is possible to produce morphologies having different n-fold symmetries by manipulating molecular features such as chirality, polarity or anisotropy. In this paper, a two dimensional hard molecular model is introduced to study the formation of liquid crystalline phases in low dimensionality. The model is similar to that reported by Julio C. Armas-Pérez and Jacqueline Quintana-H., Phys. Rev. E 83, 051709 (2011). The main difference is the lack of chirality in the model proposed, although they share some characteristics like the geometrical polarity. Our model is called a lollipop model, because its shape is constructed by a rounded section attached to the end of a stick. Contrary to what happens in three dimensions where chiral nematogens produce interesting and complex phases such as blue phases, the lack of molecular chirality of our model generates a richer phase diagram compared to the chiral system. We show numerical and some geometrical evidences that the lack of laterality of the non chiral model seems to provide more routes of molecular self-assembly, producing triatic, a random cluster and possibly a tetratic phase behavior which were not presented in the previous work. We support our conclusions using results obtained from isobaric and isochoric Monte Carlo simulations. Properties as the n-fold order parameters such as the nematic, tetratic and triatic as well as their correlation functions were used to characterize the phases. We also provide the Fourier transform of equilibrium configurations to analyze the n-fold symmetry characteristic of each phase.

Interrupted time series analysis of children’s blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York

PubMed Central

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children’s blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children’s blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children’s BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children’s blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children’s BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children’s blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children’s BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis. PMID:28182688

Antimicrobial Resistance Determinants in Acinetobacter baumannii Isolates Taken from Military Treatment Facilities

PubMed Central

Leski, Tomasz A.; Stockelman, Michael G.; Craft, David W.; Zurawski, Daniel V.; Kirkup, Benjamin C.; Vora, Gary J.

2014-01-01

Multidrug-resistant (MDR) Acinetobacter baumannii infections are of particular concern within medical treatment facilities, yet the gene assemblages that give rise to this phenotype remain poorly characterized. In this study, we tested 97 clinical A. baumannii isolates collected from military treatment facilities (MTFs) from 2003 to 2009 by using a molecular epidemiological approach that enabled for the simultaneous screening of 236 antimicrobial resistance genes. Overall, 80% of the isolates were found to be MDR, each strain harbored between one and 17 resistant determinants, and a total of 52 unique resistance determinants or gene families were detected which are known to confer resistance to β-lactam (e.g., blaGES-11, blaTEM, blaOXA-58), aminoglycoside (e.g., aphA1, aacC1, armA), macrolide (msrA, msrB), tetracycline [e.g., tet(A), tet(B), tet(39)], phenicol (e.g., cmlA4, catA1, cat4), quaternary amine (qacE, qacEΔ1), streptothricin (sat2), sulfonamide (sul1, sul2), and diaminopyrimidine (dfrA1, dfrA7, dfrA19) antimicrobial compounds. Importantly, 91% of the isolates harbored blaOXA-51-like carbapenemase genes (including six new variants), 40% harbored the blaOXA-23 carbapenemase gene, and 89% contained a variety of aminoglycoside resistance determinants with up to six unique determinants identified per strain. Many of the resistance determinants were found in potentially mobile gene cassettes; 45% and 7% of the isolates contained class 1 and class 2 integrons, respectively. Combined, the results demonstrate a facile approach that supports a more complete understanding of the genetic underpinnings of antimicrobial resistance to better assess the load, transmission, and evolution of MDR in MTF-associated A. baumannii. PMID:24247131

Emergence of Salmonella enterica serovar Indiana and California isolates with concurrent resistance to cefotaxime, amikacin and ciprofloxacin from chickens in China.

PubMed

Wang, Yongxiang; Zhang, Anyun; Yang, Yongqiang; Lei, Changwei; Jiang, Wei; Liu, Bihui; Shi, Hongping; Kong, Linghan; Cheng, Guangyang; Zhang, Xiuzhong; Yang, Xin; Wang, Hongning

2017-12-04

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and characterization of Salmonella concerning the poultry industry in China. A total of 170 non-duplicate Salmonella isolates were recovered from the 1540 chicken samples. Among the Salmonella isolates from chickens, the predominant serovars were S. enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) (49/170, 28.8%), S. enterica serovar Indiana (S. Indiana) (37/170, 21.8%) and S. enterica serovar California (S. California) (34/170, 20.0%). High antimicrobial resistance was observed for ciprofloxacin (68.2%), amikacin (48.2%) and cefotaxime (44.7%). Of particular concerns were the 18 S. Indiana and 17 S. California isolates, which were concurrently resistant to cefotaxime, amikacin and ciprofloxacin. The bla CTX-M genes, 16S rRNA methylase genes (armA, rmtD or rmtC) and five plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance (PMQR) determinants (aac(6')-Ib-cr, oqxAB, qnrB, qepA and qnrD) were identified in 18 S. Indiana and 17 S. California isolates. To clarify their genetic correlation, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were further conducted. PFGE profiles showed that the majority of S. Indiana and S. California isolates were clonally unrelated with a standard cut-off of 85%. The results of MLST demonstrated that ST17 and ST40 were the most common ST types in S. Indiana and S. California isolates, respectively. Our findings indicated that the multiple antibiotic resistant S. Indiana and S. California isolates were widespread in chicken in China and might pose a potential threat to public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

2016-12-01

A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

PubMed

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children's blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children's blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children's BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children's blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children's BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children's blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children's BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis.

Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

2017-12-01

Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complete sequence of a novel 178-kilobase plasmid carrying bla(NDM-1) in a Providencia stuartii strain isolated in Afghanistan.

PubMed

McGann, Patrick; Hang, Jun; Clifford, Robert J; Yang, Yu; Kwak, Yoon I; Kuschner, Robert A; Lesho, Emil P; Waterman, Paige E

2012-04-01

In response to global concerns over the spread of the New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase gene 1, bla(NDM-1), a monthly surveillance program was initiated in September 2010. All carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative strains forwarded to our facility are screened for this gene. To date, 321 carbapenem-resistant isolates, encompassing 11 bacterial species, have been tested. In February 2011, two strains of Providencia stuartii, submitted from a military hospital in Afghanistan, tested positive for bla(NDM-1). Both strains were identical by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). bla(NDM-1) was carried on a large plasmid, pMR0211, which was sequenced by emulsion PCR and pyrosequencing. pMR0211 is 178,277 bp in size and belongs to incompatibility group A/C. The plasmid consists of a backbone with considerable homology to pAR060302 from Escherichia coli, and it retains many of the antibiotic resistance genes associated with it. The plasmid also shares common elements with the pNDM-HK plasmid, including bla(NDM-1), armA, and sul1. However, gene orientation is reversed, and a 3-kb fragment from this region is absent from pMR0211. pMR0211 also contains additional genes, including the aminoglycoside-modifying enzyme loci aadA and aac(6'), the quinolone resistance gene qnrA, a gene with highest homology to a U32 family peptidase from Shewanella amazonensis, and the bla(OXA-10) gene. The finding of this gene in an intrinsically colistin-resistant species such as Providencia stuartii is especially worrisome, as it renders the organism resistant to nearly every available antibiotic. The presence of multiple insertion sequences and transposons flanking the region containing the bla(NDM-1) gene further highlights the potential mobility associated with this gene.

On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety.

PubMed

Commandeur, Jacques J F; Bijleveld, Frits D; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

2013-11-01

Data collected for building a road safety observatory usually include observations made sequentially through time. Examples of such data, called time series data, include annual (or monthly) number of road traffic accidents, traffic fatalities or vehicle kilometers driven in a country, as well as the corresponding values of safety performance indicators (e.g., data on speeding, seat belt use, alcohol use, etc.). Some commonly used statistical techniques imply assumptions that are often violated by the special properties of time series data, namely serial dependency among disturbances associated with the observations. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of such violations to the applicability of standard methods of statistical inference, which leads to an under or overestimation of the standard error and consequently may produce erroneous inferences. Moreover, having established the adverse consequences of ignoring serial dependency issues, the paper aims to describe rigorous statistical techniques used to overcome them. In particular, appropriate time series analysis techniques of varying complexity are employed to describe the development over time, relating the accident-occurrences to explanatory factors such as exposure measures or safety performance indicators, and forecasting the development into the near future. Traditional regression models (whether they are linear, generalized linear or nonlinear) are shown not to naturally capture the inherent dependencies in time series data. Dedicated time series analysis techniques, such as the ARMA-type and DRAG approaches are discussed next, followed by structural time series models, which are a subclass of state space methods. The paper concludes with general recommendations and practice guidelines for the use of time series models in road safety research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Los padres como maestros de los ninos. Los padres como recursos para los maestros. Serie E: [E1] logro de la participacion de los padres. cuadernos 1 y 2. Edicion para el maestro. Cuadernos para el entrenamiento de maestros de educacion bilingue. (Parents as Their Children's Teachers. Parents as Resources for Teachers. Series E: Parent Participation, Book 1 and 2. Teacher Edition. Bilingual Education Teacher Training Packets).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lazos, Hector, Comp.

This guide on training bilingual education teachers focuses on parent participation in school activities. The guide addresses three groups of people: paraprofessionals and non-graduate students, bilingual teachers, and graduate students. Two units are presented, one dealing with the important influence parents have on their child's language…

A Visão do Universo Segundo a Concepção de um Grupo de Alunos do Ensino Médio de São Paulo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araújo, M. A. A.; Elias, D. C. N.; Amaral, L. H.; Araújo, M. S. T.; Voelzke, M. R.

2005-12-01

Nesse trabalho foi identificada por meio de um questionário a visão de mundo sobre o Universo espaço e tempo entre 270 estudantes de Ensino Médio de três escolas de São Paulo. Constatou-se pouco conhecimento dos temas investigados sendo que apenas 20% dos alunos relacionaram as semanas com as fases da lua enquanto 28% associaram as estações do ano à inclinação do eixo de rotação da Terra e 23% tinham noções das distâncias entre objetos celestes próximos da Terra. Enquanto 56% conseguiram relacionar o Big Bang com a origem do Universo verificou-se que 37% reconheciam ano-luz como unidade de distância e 60% reconheciam o Sol como uma estrela. Apesar de 60% dos alunos indicarem a escola como principal fonte dos conhecimentos de astronomia seus conceitos ainda são inadequados havendo necessidade de aprimoramento da abordagem desses conteúdos pois apesar de popular a astronomia é veiculada de maneira pouco esclarecedora e com imprecissões.

Unificando los criterios de sepsis neonatal tardía: propuesta de un algoritmo de vigilancia diagnóstica

PubMed Central

Zea-Vera, Alonso; Turin, Christie G.; Ochoa, Theresa J.

2015-01-01

Las infecciones constituyen una de las principales causas de muerte en el periodo neonatal. El diagnóstico de sepsis neonatal representa un gran desafío ya que los recién nacidos presentan signos clínicos muy inespecíficos y los exámenes auxiliares tienen una baja sensibilidad. Con el objetivo de mejorar el diagnóstico correcto de esta patología proponemos un algoritmo de vigilancia diagnóstica para sepsis neonatal tardía en el Perú y países de la región. El algoritmo permite clasificar a los episodios como sepsis confirmada, probable o posible, y sobretodo busca identificar aquellos episodios que no corresponden a sepsis, evitando calificar otras patologías como “sepsis”. Un mejor diagnóstico permitiría tener tasas más reales de sepsis neonatal, mejorar el uso de antibióticos y evitar sus efectos negativos en el recién nacido, así como una visión más exacta de su impacto en la salud pública. PMID:25123879

Del sujeto que ha intentado suicidarse y el Otro: la Institución Psiquiátrica

PubMed Central

Liliana, Mondragón B.; Miguel Ángel, Caballero G.

2009-01-01

El hospital psiquiátrico se ha constituido como un lugar donde se posibilita legitimar la exclusión y la radicalidad de ese otro “que no es igual”, como es el caso del sujeto que atenta contra su propia vida. En consecuencia, el intento de suicidio desde el pensamiento foucaultiano, es una resistencia que desmantela la estructura de dominación a través de un acto de poder, el cual se ejerce sobre el propio cuerpo. Así, la intención de este texto es mostrar que la relación Otro-otro es un lugar en la estructura subjetiva, que se deposita en la institución psiquiátrica, la cual representa el poder, la ley, y es aquello a lo que se le quiere agredir, resistir, abatir con un intento de suicidio. Para demostrar como se materializan estos hechos, se exponen los testimonios de tres adolescentes atendidas en un hospital psiquiátrico por intentos suicidas, en los cuales se señalan los diferentes significados que le atribuyen a la institución psiquiátrica en tanto que representa un Otro en sus actos autoinfligidos. PMID:25400324

[Not Available].

PubMed

Torres Díaz, Cristina V; Martín Peña, Gonzalo; Ezquiaga, Elena; Navas García, Marta; García de Sola, Rafael

2016-07-19

Gracias a los avances técnicos en técnicas neuroquirúrgicas, y debido a que el diagnóstico y la clasificación de las enfermedades psiquiátricas han evolucionado significativamente a lo largo de las últimas décadas, se están desarrollando tratamientos a nivel experimental para aquellos pacientes resistentes al manejo conservador.La anorexia nerviosa es una enfermedad de prevalencia creciente, con la tasa de mortalidad más elevada dentro de los trastornos psiquiátricos, y con aproximadamente un 20% de pacientes que presentan una evolución tórpida. Para estos pacientes que no responden a manejo conservador, la estimulación cerebral profunda ha surgido como una alternativa terapéutica, si bien la literatura especializada al respecto es escasa.A continuación presentamos una revisión de la fisiopatología de la anorexia nerviosa, así como de los distintos tratamientos neuroquirúrgicos realizados a lo largo de la historia. Se detalla la perspectiva de tratamiento quirúrgico actual, así como los aspectos éticos que se han de considerar en relación con el surgimiento de estas nuevas terapias.

Desarrollo curricular, conciencia ambiental y tecnologia para estudiantes de intermedia: Una investigacion en accion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Ramos, Teresita

Se llevó a cabo una investigación en acción con los propósitos de 1) documentar las relaciones de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación en las clases de ciencias de escuela intermedia como elemento de apoyo cuando se aborda el tema ambiental y sus conceptos pertinentes, a partir de las observaciones de la investigadora, así como las entrevistas y diarios reflexivos de los estudiantes de una escuela intermedia en la zona metropolitana, y luego 2) diseñar una unidad instruccional sobre el tema ambiental que integre actividades tecnologías para el curso de ciencias de la escuela intermedia según el modelo PROCIC y las observaciones que hayan iniciado los estudiantes participantes. Finalmente, se plantearon las implicaciones educativas para el currículo del Programa de Ciencias al instrumentar este modelo de unidad mediante PROCIC, e integrado la tecnología y el tema ambiental. Los hallazgos se analizaron y se categorizaron de acuerdo con las preguntas de investigación. El hallazgo principal de la investigación aborda las cuatro relaciones centrales en las que se articula la utilización de las tecnologías y sus aplicaciones en la clase de ciencias. Estas cuatro relaciones que recogen la posición de los estudiantes son: 1) Perspectiva de los estudiantes hacia la tecnología. 2) Participación de los estudiantes en los aspectos docentes. 3) Aprendizaje estudiantil sobre el ambiente, y 4) Conciencia ambiental en relación con la vida diaria. Estas relaciones ponen de manifiesto,cómo se plantea en las implicaciones, la necesidad de más investigación en acción en la sala de clases, la importancia—como tema transversal—de la conciencia ambiental mediante la tecnología al construir conocimientos significativos dentro y fuera de la escuela, asó como, valorar la investigación y la dialogicidad en la sala de clases como actividades que obligan al reexamen de la práctica didáctica en su formas curriculares de objetivos, recursos, actividades, evaluación, entre otros. Estos planteamientos definen la unidad curricular que se propone en el cuatro capítulo.

Myocardial Viability on Cardiac Magnetic Resonance.

PubMed

Souto, Ana Luiza Mansur; Souto, Rafael Mansur; Teixeira, Isabella Cristina Resende; Nacif, Marcelo Souto

2017-05-01

The study of myocardial viability is of great importance in the orientation and management of patients requiring myocardial revascularization or angioplasty. The technique of delayed enhancement (DE) is accurate and has transformed the study of viability into an easy test, not only for the detection of fibrosis but also as a binary test detecting what is viable or not. On DE, fibrosis equal to or greater than 50% of the segmental area is considered as non-viable, whereas that below 50% is considered viable. During the same evaluation, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) may also use other techniques for functional and perfusion studies to obtain a global evaluation of ischemic heart disease. This study aims to highlight the current concepts and broadly emphasize the use of CMR as a method that over the last 20 years has become a reference in the detection of infarction and assessment of myocardial viability. Resumo O estudo de viabilidade miocárdica é de grande importância para a orientação e manejo de pacientes que necessitam de cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica ou angioplastia. A técnica de realce tardio (RT) é precisa e transformou o estudo de viabilidade em um teste fácil, não só para a detecção de fibrose, mas também como um modelo binário para a detecção do que é ou não é viável. Uma fibrose identificada pelo RT é considerada como não viável quando igual ou maior do que 50% da área segmentar e como viável quando menor que 50%. A ressonância magnética cardíaca (RMC) também pode lançar mão de outras técnicas para estudo funcional e de perfusão para uma avaliação global da doença isquêmica do coração no mesmo exame. Este estudo tem como objetivo destacar os conceitos atuais e enfatizar amplamente o uso da RMC como um método que nos últimos 20 anos se tornou referência na detecção de infarto e avaliação de viabilidade miocárdica.

Spin-Transfer-Torque Nano-Oscillators: Fabrication, Characterization and Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Jose Diogo Teixeira Barbosa

Este trabalho aborda algumas propriedades magneticas e estruturais de nanoparticulas de oxidos e oxidos-hidroxidos de ferro crescidos em matrizes hibridas orgânicas-inorgânicas. As matrizes hibridas, denominadas di-ureasils e obtidas pelo processo sol-gel, sao compostas por uma rede siliciosa ligada covalentemente por pontes ureia a cadeias orgânicas de diferente peso molecular. A estrutura local dos di-ureasils nao dopados esta modelada como grupos de dominios siliciosos com dimensoes nanometricas, estruturalmente correlacionados no seio de uma matriz rica em polimero. Neste trabalho mostra-se que os di-ureasils permitem o crescimento controlado de oxidos e oxidos-hidroxidos de ferro, incluindo a magnetite, maguemite, oxihidroxinitrato de ferro e ferrihidrite. O crescimento das nanoparticulas de ferrihidrite da-se em condicoes acidas a superficie dos dominios siliciosos, junto aos grupos carbonilo, que funcionam como pontos de nucleacao. Desse modo da-se uma nucleacao heterogenea, onde o tamanho das nanoparticulas depende da concentracao de ferro (entre 1 e 6% em massa), sendo a concentracao de particulas constante. As propriedades magneticas das nanoparticulas de ferrihidrite revelam a existencia de interaccoes antiferromagneticas e de momentos descompensados. A contribuicao destas duas componentes nas curvas de magnetizacao em funcao do campo magnetico pode ser separada usando um metodo aqui proposto, o que permite um adequado estudo da evolucao do momento magnetico com a temperatura. O estudo das propriedades magneticas dinâmicas das particulas de ferrihidrite, atraves de susceptibilidade ac, medidas de relaxacao e medidas de efeito Mossbauer, permitiu estudar a evolucao das interaccoes dipolares em funcao da concentracao de ferro, bem como determinar a distribuicao de barreiras de energia de anisotropia no caso em que essas interaccoes sao desprezaveis. E apresentado um novo metodo para comparacao desta distribuicao com a distribuicao de tamanhos, que permitiu concluir que os momentos magneticos descompensados estao aleatoriamente distribuidos em volume. Usando baixas concentracoes de agua, foi possivel crescer fases de oxihidroxinitrato de ferro com diferentes graus de cristalinidade, sendo algumas precursoras da ferrihidrite (como observado noutros trabalhos) e sendo outras novas fases. O crescimento de nanoparticulas de maguemite e magnetite acontece apos incorporacao de ioes de Fe2+ e Fe3+ seguidos de tratamento basico e termico. Estes sistemas apresentam propriedades magneticas tipicas de nanoparticulas superparamagneticas sem interaccoes dipolares. As propriedades magneticas dependem criticamente da existencia de grupos isocianato livres, que actuarao como pontos de nucleacao. None

Structural and Magnetic Studies on Iron Oxide Nanoparticles in Hybrid Matrices =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Nuno Joao de Oliveira

Este trabalho aborda algumas propriedades magneticas e estruturais de nanoparticulas de oxidos e oxidos-hidroxidos de ferro crescidos em matrizes hibridas orgânicas-inorgânicas. As matrizes hibridas, denominadas di-ureasils e obtidas pelo processo sol-gel, sao compostas por uma rede siliciosa ligada covalentemente por pontes ureia a cadeias orgânicas de diferente peso molecular. A estrutura local dos di-ureasils nao dopados esta modelada como grupos de dominios siliciosos com dimensoes nanometricas, estruturalmente correlacionados no seio de uma matriz rica em polimero. Neste trabalho mostra-se que os di-ureasils permitem o crescimento controlado de oxidos e oxidos-hidroxidos de ferro, incluindo a magnetite, maguemite, oxihidroxinitrato de ferro e ferrihidrite. O crescimento das nanoparticulas de ferrihidrite da-se em condicoes acidas a superficie dos dominios siliciosos, junto aos grupos carbonilo, que funcionam como pontos de nucleacao. Desse modo da-se uma nucleacao heterogenea, onde o tamanho das nanoparticulas depende da concentracao de ferro (entre 1 e 6% em massa), sendo a concentracao de particulas constante. As propriedades magneticas das nanoparticulas de ferrihidrite revelam a existencia de interaccoes antiferromagneticas e de momentos descompensados. A contribuicao destas duas componentes nas curvas de magnetizacao em funcao do campo magnetico pode ser separada usando um metodo aqui proposto, o que permite um adequado estudo da evolucao do momento magnetico com a temperatura. O estudo das propriedades magneticas dinâmicas das particulas de ferrihidrite, atraves de susceptibilidade ac, medidas de relaxacao e medidas de efeito Mossbauer, permitiu estudar a evolucao das interaccoes dipolares em funcao da concentracao de ferro, bem como determinar a distribuicao de barreiras de energia de anisotropia no caso em que essas interaccoes sao desprezaveis. E apresentado um novo metodo para comparacao desta distribuicao com a distribuicao de tamanhos, que permitiu concluir que os momentos magneticos descompensados estao aleatoriamente distribuidos em volume. Usando baixas concentracoes de agua, foi possivel crescer fases de oxihidroxinitrato de ferro com diferentes graus de cristalinidade, sendo algumas precursoras da ferrihidrite (como observado noutros trabalhos) e sendo outras novas fases. O crescimento de nanoparticulas de maguemite e magnetite acontece apos incorporacao de ioes de Fe2+ e Fe3+ seguidos de tratamento basico e termico. Estes sistemas apresentam propriedades magneticas tipicas de nanoparticulas superparamagneticas sem interaccoes dipolares. As propriedades magneticas dependem criticamente da existencia de grupos isocianato livres, que actuarao como pontos de nucleacao. None

El rol de Ia colaboracion y el Modelo de Aprendizaje Basado en Proyectos (ABPr) mediante el lente de la Teoria de Actividad (CHAT): un estudio de caso con estudiantes de 9no grado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, Isabel C.

Los modelos de eensenanza y aprendizaje constructivistas conceptualizan el aprendizaje como un proceso activo. El modelo de Aprendizaje Basado en Proyectos (ABPr) se distingue por una serie de componentes, entre los cuales se destaca el aspecto colaborativo y cooperativo como un reto al momento de su implantacion. Son pocas las investigaciones que se concentran en este aspecto del modelo. En este estudio, se analizaron las diversas interacciones que surgen durante la implantacion de una unidad curricular sobre el tema de Geologia de Puerto Rico, la cual se diseno con el modelo ABPr cuyo enfoque es orientacion a proyectos. Particularmente, se examinaron las interacciones sociales que surgen entre los pares y entre pares y docente durante el proceso de planificacion y desarrollo de los productos finales, al igual que las interacciones entre los estudiantes y el material didactico en estas etapas del modelo. La investigacion es de tipo cualitativo e incorpora como diseno el estudio de caso. Las diversas interacciones constituyen la unidad de analisis. En el estudio participaron 19 estudiantes de 9no grado, a quienes se organizaron en 5 grupos colaborativos por temas de interes (Pangea, Placas tectonicas, Volcanes, Tsunamis y Terremotos). Las tecnicas que se utilizaron para recopilar los datos fueron: observaciones participativas, grupos focales y analisis de documentos (cuadernos reflexivos y respuestas de los estudiantes a la pregunta central del proyecto). Para el analisis de los datos se aplico la teoria de actividad (CHAT) que concentra la unidad de analisis en la actividad humana en un contexto particular. Los resultados del estudio senalan que las interacciones entre pares, entre pares y docente, asi como entre estudiantes y material didactico son fundamentales en el proceso de aprendizaje. Una mayor interaccion entre pares durante las etapas de planificar y desarrollar los productos finales de la unidad, promueve una mejor comprension de los conceptos de la unidad, segun evidencia los productos finales del ABPr. La interaccion con el docente es muy importante para mediar los conflictos y desacuerdos que surgen como parte de las interacciones entre pares. Por lo tanto, el uso de diversas estrategias de andamiaje por parte del docente durante las reuniones de los grupos colaborativos es esencial para el exito del modelo ABPr.

A proposed contents astronomy for basic education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, E.; Voelzke, M. R.

2014-08-01

A Astronomia é um tema que sempre exerceu fascínio sobre as pessoas de um modo geral. Conhecer e estudar o que há nos “céus”, além de nossos olhos, continua sendo instigador e de grande interesse. Baseado nestas justificativas desenvolveu-se uma pesquisa de Doutorado, na qual, o objetivo principal foi investigar sobre a presença dos conteúdos de Astronomia nas Propostas Curriculares da região Sul do Brasil, a saber, os estados de Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina e, posterior comparação com os Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais (PCN) que trazem propostas de conteúdos para toda a Educação Básica brasileira. Tal investigação pautou-se na abordagem de caráter qualitativo e utilizouse para tal da Análise de Conteúdos (Bardin, 2011), que possibilitou a construção de quatro categorias, nas quais os conteúdos astronômicos foram agrupados: Terra, Sistema Solar, Via Láctea e Universo. Após a leitura, coleta de dados, construção de categorias, observou-se a dicotomia na apresentação destes conteúdos. As propostas curriculares analisadas foram as de Geografia, Ciências e Física dos estados do Paraná (2008), Rio Grande do Sul (2009) e de Santa Catarina (1998), responsáveis pelo trabalho com Astronomia nestes estados. No Ensino Fundamental, a proposta curricular do estado do Paraná apresenta conteúdos ligados à Astronomia desde o sexto ano até o nono ano, como conteúdo do primeiro bimestre, o que também é apresentado na proposta curricular do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, porém, este, não divide os conteúdos por bimestre e nem por ano, mas por ciclos, sexto e sétimo anos como primeiro ciclo e oitavo e nono anos como segundo ciclo, deixando livre para o professor estruturar sua sequência de conteúdos. A proposta curricular de Santa Catarina não apresenta estes conteúdos de maneira explícita, não divide dos conteúdos nem por ano, nem por série, traz uma sequência de conteúdos para serem trabalhados ao longo dos quatro anos, nos quais, aparecem timidamente alguns conteúdos de Astronomia. Para o Ensino Médio, as propostas curriculares do Paraná e de Santa Catarina parecem que se repetem, apresentando apenas o conteúdo Gravitação Universal, na primeira série do Ensino Médio, já a proposta curricular do Rio Grande do Sul, traz uma sequência que é proposta nos PCN (Brasil, 1998; 1999; 2002), na qual aparece o tema em questão, porém, em todos os anos, em todas as propostas, não há um detalhamento do que, de como trabalhar os conteúdos. O detalhamento facilita a prática pedagógica, pois, conteúdos simples como as Estações do Ano, Fases da Lua, sequer são citados nas propostas curriculares pesquisadas. Outro aspecto observado é que os conteúdos de um modo geral não trazem uma sequência e não primam por partir do entorno do aluno, daquilo que ele conhece para estruturar novos conceitos. Tais aspectos dificultam o fazer pedagógico, pois, por ser uma região com características culturais semelhantes, era esperado que as propostas fossem mais próximas, o! que facilitaria em muito, por exemplo, transferências dentro de um mesmo estado ou interestaduais. Pautando-se no que foi observado, na falta de especificidade dos conteúdos, clareza, sequência dos conteúdos e propostas de trabalho é proposto uma sequência de conteúdos de Astronomia, com materiais e recursos, pois, como apontado por Langhi e Nardi (2009), é necessário fornecer além da informação, do conteúdo, o como fazer. Tal proposta não visa estabelecer-se como regra, mas como suporte ao professor para facilitar sua prática pedagógica e tornar o trabalho com Astronomia presente nas escolas brasileiras. Bardin, L. Análise de conteúdo. Tradução Luís Antero Reto, Augusto Pinheiro. São Paulo: Edições 70, 2011. 279 p. Langhi, R; Nardi, R. Ensino da astronomia no Brasil: educação formal, informal, não-formal e divulgação científica. Revista Brasileira de Ensino de Física, v. 31, n. 4, p. 4402-1 a 4402-11, 2009.

The Science Teachers and Their way of Thinking about Astronomy. (Spanish Title: Los Profesores de Ciencias y Sus Formas de Pensar la Astronomía.) Os Professores de Ciências e Suas Formas de Pensar a Astronomia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leite, Cristina; Hosoume, Yassuko

2007-12-01

The research presented in this article is about the way science teachers from Elementary School think about astronomical elements. Its methodology is based on semi-structured interviews, which were video recorded. The research is centered in a three-dimensional perspective of astronomical Earth, the Sun, the Moon, the planets and the stars, and also the conceptions about sky and Universe. The esults indicate a Universe that contains: Sun, stars, planets and Moon; where the Solar System is a little part of the whole. Sometimes they think that the Solar System is the Universe. The objects are in the sky or in the Universe, which, for many of them, is only the space above the Earth. The flat shape of astronomical objects and the spatial structure of the Universe are striking features. Many of them think that Sun and stars are different: the Sun is a hot object and the stars are cold ones. These results worry us and they certainly indicate how urgent it is to plan Professional Development in Astronomy for teachers, after all the PCN's emphasize that this subject is important to be taught. El objeto de investigación de este artículo es la manera de pensar sobre los elementos de la Astronomía de los profesores de Ciencias en la enseñanza fundamental. La metodología consiste en entrevistas semi-estructuradas, filmadas en video y centradas en la tridimensionalidad de los elementos astronómicos, para posibilitar un mapeamiento de las concepciones sobre las formas y dimensiones de la Tierra, del Sol, de la Luna, de los planetas y de las estrellas, como también de la concepción de cielo y de Universo en su totalidad. Los resultados indican un Universo conteniendo: Sol, estrellas, planetas y Luna, donde el Sistema Solar se ubica como parte. Algunas veces, el Universo es concebido como el propio Sistema Solar. Los objetos están en el cielo o en el Universo, que, para muchos, se restringe al espacio que está arriba de la Tierra. La forma plana de los objetos astronómicos y la estructura espacial del montaje del Universo son características fundamentales. Muchos indican Sol y estrellas como cosas distintas: el Sol es un objeto caliente y las estrellas son frías. Esos resultados nos preocupan y ciertamente señalan una urgencia de programas de formación continuada para profesores en el contenido de astronomía, pues los PCN's (Parámetros Curriculares Nacionales) recomiendan con énfasis la enseñanza de este contenido. O modo de pensar dos professores de Ciências do ensino fundamental sobre os elementos da Astronomia é o objeto de pesquisa presente neste artigo, cuja metodologia consiste em entrevistas semiestruturadas, filmadas em vídeo e centradas numa perspectiva tridimensional dos elementos astronômicos, possibilitando um mapeamento das concepções das formas e das dimensões da Terra, do Sol, da Lua, dos planetas e das estrelas, bem como da concepção de céu e de Universo como um todo. Os resultados indicam um Universo contendo: Sol, estrelas, planetas e Lua, onde o Sistema Solar é parte do todo. Algumas vezes o Universo é concebido como o próprio Sistema Solar. Os objetos estão no céu ou no Universo o qual, para muitos, se restringe ao espaço que está acima da Terra. A forma plana dos objetos astronômicos e a estrutura espacial da montagem do Universo são características marcantes. Muitos indicam Sol e estrelas como coisas diferentes: Sol é um objeto quente e as estrelas são frias. Esses resultados nos preocupam e certamente sinalizam uma urgência de programas de formação continuada para professores no conteúdo de astronomia, uma vez que os PCN's indicam fortemente o ensino desse conteúdo.

Modelizacion, control e implementacion de un procesador energetico paralelo para aplicacion en sistemas multisalida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreres Sabater, Agustin

Cualquier sistema electronico que incluya un procesado o tratamiento de la senal, y ademas, algun tipo de actuador mecanico generalmente necesita, como minimo, dos tensiones diferentes de alimentacion. Excluyendo los sistemas de alimentacion distribuida, la solucion tecnica mas utilizada para proporcionar dos o mas tensiones consiste en las fuentes de alimentacion multisalida. En una fuente de alimentacion multisalida los diferentes circuitos que conforman cada salida comparten un mismo transformador de potencia optimizando coste, masa, y volumen. Las ventajas obtenidas con este procedimiento tienen en su contra el efecto que sobre cada salida individual provocan las demas en su conjunto debido, principalmente, a los efectos de los elementos parasitos de los componentes. Un cambio de carga en una de las salidas produce un transitorio que es visto por todas las demas como un efecto de impedancia cruzada, y al final del transitorio, la tension de cada salida es diferente respecto a la que tenian antes del transitorio. Este ultimo resultado se conoce como regulacion cruzada. La disminucion de los efectos de la regulacion cruzada ha sido objeto de estudio durante los ultimos anos. El objetivo ha sido el desarrollo de distintas estrategias que permiten, desde disminuir los efectos de la regulacion cruzada hasta los niveles deseables, a eliminarla completamente. El resultado final suele suponer una penalizacion sobre el diseno del sistema directamente proporcional al grado de regulacion a conseguir en las distintas salidas. Entre las soluciones propuestas para eliminar la regulacion cruzada las tecnicas de post-regulacion se han consolidado como la opcion mas aceptada ya que, pueden aplicarse a cualquier convertidor y no suponen ninguna complejidad adicional a la hora de plantear el diseno. En esta Tesis Doctoral se abordara el estudio de la tecnica conocida como postregulacion mediante transformador controlado, que si bien se ha empleado en convertidores resonantes, su modelizacion, y aplicacion en convertidores PWM, esta aun por estudiar y valorar. El primer Capitulo consiste en una breve introduccion al problema de la regulacion cruzada y la impedancia cruzada para posteriormente describir las tecnicas de post-regulacion actualmente mas empleadas, con especial atencion al post-regulador con transformador controlado. El Capitulo segundo trata del estudio de las caracteristicas estaticas del postregulador con transformador controlado. Partiendo de los estudios disponibles sobre el postregulador se plantean mejoras en su modo de actuacion y se discuten tres alternativas diferentes para controlar el transformador. Las dos primeras consisten en emplear un convertidor auxiliar Boost en sus dos modos de funcionamiento, continuo y discontinuo. La tercera consiste en controlar el transformador con una tension PWM directamente, sin filtrado. Finalmente se comprueba experimentalmente, para el estado estacionario, el funcionamiento del post-regulador para cada uno de los tres metodos de control. El Capitulo tercero trata de la dinamica de la salida controlada con el post-regulador cuando este emplea un convertidor auxiliar tipo Boost. Mediante la tecnica de promediado de variables de estado se propone el modelo de pequena senal, tanto para el modo continuo como para el modo discontinuo de funcionamiento del convertidor auxiliar. Los resultados mas significativos de esta seccion son las expresiones analiticas de las impedancias cruzadas y de la impedancia de la salida post-regulada. Como complemento al modelo de pequena senal se plantea un modelo de gran senal implementado sobre el simulador Pspice. Con este nuevo modelo se reproducen los resultados obtenidos con el modelo de pequena senal y ademas es posible simular los transitorios en las tensiones de salida ante cambios de carga. La modelizacion del convertidor cuando el transformador se controla con una tension PWM sin filtrar es el objetivo del Capitulo 4. En las secciones siguientes del Capitulo se plantea el correspondiente modelo de gran senal aplicado a un nuevo prototipo experimental, de mayor tension de entrada y mayores corrientes de salida. El final del Capitulo contrasta los resultados experimentales con los teoricos confirmando la utilidad del modelo de gran senal como una herramienta basica de diseno. Finalmente, en el Capitulo 5, se presentan las conclusiones y la valoracion de los diferentes estudios plateados a lo largo de la Tesis Doctoral.

[Leadership and CETREMI].

PubMed

Sandoval-Gutiérrez, José Luis

2017-01-01

Según la Real Academia Española, el término «líder» significa «persona que dirige u orienta a un grupo, que reconoce su autoridad». Es importante este término ya que es muy ambiguo, porque no reconoce el nivel moral o la empatía que puede ejercer una persona en determinado grupo al reconocerlo como líder, y no solo con la autoridad que este puede ejercer en el mismo, siendo este último concepto algo muy común en el mundo anglosajón, denominándose líder a alguien que tiene un puesto de autoridad, lo cual se puede confundir con lo que conocemos como «jefe».

Distribución del continuo ultravioleta e infrarrojo en estrellas Be

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruzado, A.; Ringuelet, A.; di Rocco, H.

Estamos interesados en interpretar los excesos de flujo infrarrojo y/o ultravioleta observados en estrellas Be con respecto al de estrellas B normales, así como su posible correlación. Una envoltura rodeando la estrella distingue una estrella Be de una B normal; para explicar las observaciones es necesario entonces tener en cuenta todos los posibles procesos físicos que en ella tienen lugar. Adoptando un modelo atmosférico específico, hemos estudiado el proceso de recombinación dielectrónica de metales como MgII y FeII, teniendo en cuenta la posible influencia de la opacidad del medio en el flujo emitido.

Perspectivas Futuras para o Observatório do Pico dos Dias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruch, Albert

2004-02-01

Com o Observatório Gemini plenamente operacional e o telescópio SOAR iniciando suas operações em breve, a astronomia observacional brasileira encontra-se no auge de uma transformação profunda que terá um impacto grave no Observatório do Pico dos Dias - OPD. Refletimos aqui sobre a natureza desse impacto e estratégias para manter a competitividade do OPD. Não queremos apresentar receitas prontas, mas idéias que poderão servir como base de discussão sobre o uso inteligente dos telescópios do OPD como parte do conjunto de instrumentos disponíveis à comunidade astronômica brasileira.

Conceptos Basicos Sobre el Gas Natural (in Spanish)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El gas natural abastece cerca de 150.000 vehiculos en los Estados Unidos y aproximadamente 22 millones de vehiculos en todo el mundo. Los vehiculos de gas natural (NGV, por sus siglas en ingles) son una buena opcion para las flotas de vehiculos de alto kilometraje, tales como autobuses, taxis, vehiculos de recoleccion de basura, los cuales son alimentados centralmente u operan dentro de un area limitada o a lo largo de una ruta con estaciones de servicio de gas natural. Las ventajas del gas natural como combustible alternativo incluyen su disponibilidad interna, la red de distribucion establecida, un costo relativamentemore » bajo, y los beneficios de las emisiones.« less

[80 years of soial service in medicine].

PubMed

Hace 80 años, la Escuela de Medicina de la Universidad Nacional, en voz de su director, Gustavo Baz Prada, hizo una propuesta que pronto se convirtió en realidad y finalmente en norma, la que desde entonces se conoce como SS. Esta iniciativa se vio como una manera para que los estudiantes de medicina del último año retribuyeran a la sociedad una parte de lo que esta invirtió en su educación, consolidaran su formación mediante la exposición a las realidades de todos los días en los medios más necesitados, se pusieran a prueba sobre sus verdaderas capacidades para atender pacientes y participaran en la solución de un problema de atención sanitaria que en ese entonces era mucho más apremiante que ahora. Unos años después, los recién egresados de otras licenciaturas (pasantes) también fueron incorporados a esta estrategia y, al fin, se reconoció formalmente como una responsabilidad de las instituciones educativas. Las aportaciones del SS a la salud de las personas y a la formación de los médicos han sido incuestionables, y la experiencia humana que ha representado para quienes lo han vivido ha dejado marcas indelebles.

Neurobiología de la impulsividad y los trastornos de la conducta alimentaria*

PubMed Central

Orozco-Cabal, Luis Felipe; Herin, David

2009-01-01

Resumen Introducción La impulsividad es un rasgo de personalidad multidimensional relacionado con el control del comportamiento y las emociones. Está presente de manera diversa en los trastornos de la conducta alimentaria, particularmente, en la bulimia nerviosa (BN). Aunque la relación entre la impulsividad y BN ha sido objeto de numerosas investigaciones, en la actualidad se desconocen los sustratos neurobiológicos de esta relación. Objetivos Discutir críticamente la evidencia que sugiere que las alteraciones en los sistemas neuronales relacio-nados con las funciones ejecutivas, con la formación de preferencias y con la regulación de los estados emocionales sirven como base para el rasgo de personalidad impulsiva, así como su estado en subgrupos de pacientes con BN. Métodos Búsqueda selectiva de la literatura relevante. Resultados y conclusiones Esta discusión ilustra la complejidad de la relación entre la impulsividad y BN, donde la impulsividad actúa como un factor de vulnerabilidad que puede sensibilizar al sujeto con BN a estados emocionales negativos, durante los cuales modifica el impacto de estímulos internos y externos sobre el comportamiento y su regulación, favoreciendo así patrones de comportamiento maladaptativos e inflexibles. PMID:19838321

PubMed

Hernández Mosqueira, Claudio; Hernández Vasquez, Dagoberto; Caniuqueo Vargas, Alexis; Castillo Quezada, Humberto; Fernandes Da Silva, Sandro; Pavez-Adasme, Gustavo; Martínez Salazar, Cristian; Cárcamo-Oyarzún, Jaime; Fernandes Filho, José

2016-11-29

Introducción: Chile en las últimas décadas ha experimentado un cambio en su perfil epidemiológico nutricional, pasando de una situación caracterizada por una elevada prevalencia de desnutrición y enfermedades infecciosas/parasitarias a otro completamente distinto, en donde las enfermedades crónicas y degenerativas presentan una elevada prevalencia.Objetivo: el objetivo del estudio es elaborar tablas de referencia de aspectos antropométricos y de condición física en estudiantes varones de 10 a 14 años de la ciudad de Chillán.Método: estudio descriptivo de corte transversal. La muestra se compone de 1250 varones con edades entre los 10 y 14 años. Para la confección de las tablas de referencia se utilizó estadística descriptiva y estas fueron divididas en cinco clasificaciones desde muy malo, malo, media, bueno y muy bueno, teniendo como parámetro la edad.Resultados: observamos niveles importantes de sobrepeso que se asociaron con bajo desempeño físico, lo que plantea la urgencia de realizar un seguimiento en el tiempo con herramientas de fácil aplicación como la presente batería; con el fin de detectar a tiempo a los niños que tienen bajos niveles de condición física y tomar medidas orientadas a estimular o mejorar la capacidad física como factores protectores de promoción de la salud y como ayuda en la prevención de enfermedades crónicas relacionadas con el sobrepeso u obesidad.Conclusión: en este trabajo se han establecido valores de referencia para posteriores estudios en cuanto a la condición física orientada a la salud en estudiantes varones de 10 a 14 años de la ciudad de Chillán, que permitirán evaluar e interpretar correctamente la condición física orientada a la salud de este grupo etario.

Como os Alunos do Ensino Médio da Rede Estadual de São Paulo obtém Conhecimentos Astronômicos?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Cunha, W. S.; Voelzke, M. R.; Amaral, L. H.

2005-08-01

Atualmente vivencia-se um mundo globalizado onde os computadores e a internet permitiram um acesso rápido e seguro a todo tipo de informação e conhecimento. O presente trabalho visa analisar a maneira pela qual alunos de segundo grau da rede estadual da cidade de São Paulo obtiveram, caso tenham, conhecimentos básicos de astronomia quanto aos fenômenos celestes que os rodeiam, tais como a sucessão dos dias e das estações do ano, além de questioná~los sobre fatos genéricos tais como: o que vem a ser o Sol, o Big Bang, o que ocasionou a extinção dos dinossauros. Para tanto foi elaborado um formulário constando de questões de múltipla escolha, o qual foi aplicado no primeiro colegial diurno da Escola Estadual Guilherme de Almeida. Num espaço amostral de 44 alunos constatou-se que 41% dos alunos adquiriram seus conhecimentos astronômicos na escola e 59% através da mídia em geral. Neste mesmo espaço amostral apenas 11% dos alunos usaram computadores na escola, 41% na residência, 5% no trabalho e 43% não utilizaram. O presente estudo revelou também que para 50% dos alunos o professor jamais utilizou um programa de computador a respeito de astronomia ou fez alguma apresentação sobre o tema. Embora em sua fase inicial este estudo revela claramente que a maioria dos alunos não obtém na escola seus conhecimentos astronômicos, estes provém de fontes não especificamente didático-pedagógicas tais como filmes e revistas populares que não raramente geram conhecimentos incompletos e em muitos casos inclusive falhos.

Encefalitis por anticuerpos contra el receptor de NMDA: experiencia con seis pacientes pediátricos. Potencial eficacia del metotrexato

PubMed Central

Bravo-Oro, Antonio; Abud-Mendoza, Carlos; Quezada-Corona, Arturo; Dalmau, Josep; Campos-Guevara, Verónica

2016-01-01

Introducción La encefalitis por anticuerpos contra el receptor de N-metil-D-aspartato (NMDA) es una entidad cada vez más diagnosticada en edad pediátrica. A diferencia de los adultos, en muchos casos no se asocia a tumores y las manifestaciones iniciales en niños más frecuentes son crisis convulsivas y trastornos del movimiento, mientras que en los adultos predominan las alteraciones psiquiátricas. Casos clínicos Presentamos seis casos pediátricos confirmados con anticuerpos contra la subunidad NR1 del receptor de NMDA en suero y líquido cefalorraquídeo. Cinco de los casos comenzaron con crisis convulsivas como manifestación clínica inicial antes de desarrollar el cuadro clásico de esta entidad. En todos los casos se utilizaron esteroides como primera línea de tratamiento, con los que sólo se observó control de las manifestaciones en uno, por lo que el resto de los pacientes requirió inmunomoduladores de segunda línea. Todos los pacientes recibieron metotrexato como tratamiento inmunomodulador para evitar recaídas y la evolución fue a la mejoría en todos ellos. Conclusiones En nuestra serie de pacientes con encefalitis por anticuerpos contra el receptor de NMDA, ninguno se asoció a tumores. Todos los casos recibieron metotrexato por lo menos durante un año, no observamos eventos adversos clínicos ni por laboratorio, ni hubo secuelas neurológicas ni recaídas durante el tratamiento. Aunque es una serie pequeña y es deseable incrementar el número y tiempo de evolución, consideramos el metotrexato una excelente alternativa como tratamiento inmunomodulador para esta patología. PMID:24150952

PubMed

Oyarce Merino, Karina; Valladares Vega, Macarena; Elizondo-Vega, Roberto; Obregón, Ana María

2016-11-29

Introducción: cambios socioculturales como el incremento en el sedentarismo y el consumo de alimentos ricos en grasas y azúcares, sumado a características genéticas, han producido un aumento en las cifras de obesidad a nivel mundial. La evaluación temprana en niños, mediante el establecimiento de perfi les genéticos asociados a obesidad y a la regulación metabólica y hedónica de la alimentación, complementado con estudios de la conducta alimentaria, nos permitiría predecir la predisposición a la obesidad en etapas adultas.Objetivo: revisar los conceptos asociados a la conducta alimenticia, enfocándose en la regulación hedónica, que puede convertirse en un parámetro predictivo de obesidad en niños.Material y métodos: se revisó la bibliografía asociada a obesidad infantil y a la regulación homeostática y hedónica de la obesidad, como también parámetros génicos asociados a la obesidad. En la búsqueda de artículos se incluyó el trabajo en animales y humanos (adultos y niños, pero con énfasis en niños).Resultados: se analizaron los mecanismos celulares de la regulación de la ingesta, así como los estudios de conducta alimentaria en niños, entregando antecedentes y carencias en el desarrollo investigativo para la predicción de la obesidad infantil.Conclusión: la regulación hedónica de la ingesta alimenticia en niños, como perfi les genéticos asociados a receptores de dopamina, puede convertirse en un importante predictor de la obesidad. Es necesario incrementar el número de estudios que permitan defi nir de mejor forma, cuáles son los mejores parámetros para predecir el desarrollo de la obesidad adulta.

Obstáculos a la adherencia y retención en los sistemas de salud público y privado según pacientes y personal de salud

PubMed Central

Arístegui, Inés; Dorigo, Analía; Bofill, Lina; Bordatto, Alejandra; Lucas, Mar; Cabanillas, Graciela Fernández; Sued, Omar; Cahn, Pedro; Cassetti, Isabel; Weiss, Stephen; Jones., Deborah

2016-01-01

Resumen Introducción el Programa Nacional de Sida garantiza el acceso universal a los antirretrovirales, aun así las personas que reciben medicamentos a través del sistema público no logran obtener una carga viral indetectable en la misma proporción que los pacientes del sistema privado. Este estudio cualitativo tiene como objeto identificar los factores asociados a la adherencia y retención en la cascada de atención de VIH de los sistemas de salud público y privado de Buenos Aires, según las percepciones de pacientes y del personal de salud. Métodos se registraron datos cualitativos de 12 entrevistas semi-estructuradas a informantes clave y 4 grupos focales de pacientes y personal de salud tanto del sistema público como privado. Se codificaron y analizaron temas predeterminados sobre adherencia, utilizando el software QRS Nvivo9® de análisis de datos cualitativos. Resultados pacientes y personal de salud de ambos sistemas coinciden en la importancia del estigma asociado al VIH, la relación médicopaciente, la comunicación entre ambos y la división de responsabilidades en relación al tratamiento como aspectos fundamentales para la adherencia y retención en la cascada de atención. Se observan diferencias entre los sistemas en la forma en que algunos de estos aspectos actúan. Las barreras estructurales se presentan como principales obstáculos del sistema público. Discusión se resalta la necesidad de intervenciones focalizadas en la díada médico-paciente que considere las particularidades de cada sistema de atención para facilitar el compromiso del paciente en la adherencia. PMID:26878024

PubMed

Domínguez, Vanihamín; Aguiñiga, Itzen; Moreno, Leticia; Torres, Beatriz; Santiago-Osorio, Edelmiro

2017-12-01

Introducción. El caseinato de sodio, una sal de la caseína utilizada como agente proinflamatorio en ratones, es capaz de inducir granulopoyesis en vivo e incrementar la producción de citocinas esenciales en dicho evento.Objetivo. Evaluar si el caseinato de sodio es capaz de inducir un efecto biológico en células de origen linfoide y la producción de citocinas involucradas con este linaje.Materiales y métodos: Se utilizaron ratones hembra BALB/c de 8 a 12 semanas de edad. Los animales se inyectaron cuatro veces, con intervalos de 48 horas, por vía intraperitoneal con 1 ml de caseinato de sodio (10 % de SFB p/v). La población de linfocitos B y la incorporación de bromodesoxiuridina (BrdU) se analizaron mediante citometría de flujo. La detección de la interleucina 7 se evaluó mediante la técnica de ELISA.Resultados. Tras la inyección por vía intraperitoneal, el número de linfocitos B 220+ provenientes del bazo de ratones tratados con caseinato de sodio aumentó comparados con los que solo recibieron el vehículo como tratamiento (89,01±1,03 Vs. 75,66±2,08), así como la incorporación de BrdU en células B220+ (38,59±4,48 Vs. 11,82±1,04). Se evidenció, asimismo, el incremento en la concentración de la interleucina 7 (IL-7) en el suero de los ratones tratados con caseinato de sodio, comparados con los que solo recibieron el vehículo (62,1±17,5 Vs. 26,9±4,4 pg/ml).Conclusión. El caseinato de sodio fue capaz de aumentar el número de linfocitos B en bazo de ratones, así como inducir la producción de IL-7, citocina clave para la linfopoyesis B.

Prevalence of previously undiagnosed abdominal aortic aneurysms in the area of Como: the ComoCuore "looking for AAA" ultrasonography screening.

PubMed

Corrado, Giovanni; Durante, Alessandro; Genchi, Vincenzo; Trabattoni, Loris; Beretta, Sandro; Rovelli, Enza; Foglia-Manzillo, Giovanni; Ferrari, Giovanni

2016-08-01

The prognosis for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is poor. Long-term follow-up of population-based randomized trials has demonstrated that ultrasound (US) screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) measuring 3 cm or greater decreases AAA-related mortality rates and is cost-effective. We though to prospectively perform during a 26-month period a limited US examination of the infrarenal aorta in volunteers of both gender aged 60-85 years without history of AAA living in the area of Como, Italy. From September 2010 to November 2013 ComoCuore, a no-profit nongovernmental association, enrolled 1555 people (aged 68.8 ± 6.8 years; 48.6 % males). Clinical data and a US imaging of the aorta were collected for each participant. AAA was found in 22 volunteers (1.4 %) mainly males (2.5 % in males vs. 0.4 % in females p = 0.005). Overall, the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors was higher in patients with vs. without AAA (mean 2.9 ± 3.0 vs. 1.4 ± 1.0 respectively, p < 0.0001). Independent predictors of AAA on multivariate analysis were age (OR 1.14, 1.06-1.22; p < 0.0001), male gender (OR 8.23, 1.79-37.91; p = 0.007), and both current (OR 4.98, 1.57-15.79; p = 0.007) and previous smoking (OR 2.76, 1.12-8.94; p = 0.03). Our study confirms the feasibility of one time US screening for AAA in a large cohort of asymptomatic people. Independent predictors of AAA were male sex, older age and a history of smoking. Accordingly to recent data the prevalence of AAA seems to be declining, maybe due to a reduction of smoking in Italy.

Abundâncias químicas de estrelas T Tauri fracas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, G. A.; Gregorio-Hetem, J.

2003-08-01

Apresentamos resultados do estudo de 44 estrelas pré-seqüência principal, para as quais buscamos realizar uma classificação espectroscópica e determinar parâmetros estelares e abundâncias químicas. A amostra foi escolhida da seguinte maneira : 21 objetos selecionados a partir de catálogos de objetos jovens, como o Pico dos Dias Survey e o Herbig Bell Catalogue, e 23 objetos selecionados a partir de contrapartidas ópticas de fontes de raios X detectadas pelo satélite ROSAT. Dentre 24 objetos previamente classificados como estrelas T Tauri Fracas, apenas 7 revelaram ser realmente pertencentes à essa classe, sendo os demais objetos T Tauri Clássicas ou estrelas evoluídas da pré-seqüência principal. Esse resultado demonstra que o critério mais utilizado para distinguir as T Tauri Clássicas das T Tauri Fracas, baseado na largura equivelente da emissão Ha, não é suficiente para determinar o estágio evolutivo desses objetos. Para o cálculo de parâmetros estelares e abundâncias, foram escolhidas as estrelas que apresentam características ideais para esse tipo de estudo, como ausência de velamento, baixa velocidade de rotação e espectros com razão sinal-ruído adequada. Os parâmetros estelares como temperatura efetiva e gravidade foram determinados através do equilíbrio de excitação e ionização das linhas de Ferro, e as abundâncias químicas foram calculadas utilizando o método de síntese espectral. Serão apresentados os parâmetros estelares e as abundâncias de Lítio para toda a amostra, e abundâncias de vários elementos quimicos para 7 estrelas estudadas em maior detalhe

Organization of professional practices against intrafamily violence against children and adolescents in the institutional context.

PubMed

Schek, Gabriele; Silva, Mara Regina Santos da; Lacharité, Carl; Bueno, Maria Emília Nunes

2017-06-05

to analyze based on the practitioners' discourse, the way they organize their practices confronting situations of intra-family violence against children and adolescents. qualitative research carried out with 15 professionals who work in social and health services located in the southernmost of Brazil. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews, performed at the participants' workplace. We used a theoretical matrix to analyze the data, based on Institutional Ethnography and the technique of discursive textual analysis. the practitioners' practices developed in situations of intra-family violence against children and adolescents are organized on the basis of: power relations that take place in services that respond to violence situations; routines instituted to meet the demands of care in services; and the interplay between the conception of violence as a public health problem and the conception of violence as a social problem. the way these practices are organized is reflected in actions that are not protective against situations of intra-family violence against children and adolescents. analisar, com base no discurso dos profissionais, como ocorre a organização de suas práticas frente às situações de violência intrafamiliar contra crianças e adolescentes. pesquisa qualitativa, realizada com 15 profissionais que atuam em serviços sociais e de saúde localizados no extremo sul do Brasil. Os dados foram coletados por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas, realizadas no próprio local de trabalho dos participantes. Para a análise dos dados foi construída uma matriz teórica com base na Etnografia Institucional e utilizada a técnica de análise textual discursiva. as práticas profissionais desenvolvidas nas situações de violência intrafamiliar contra crianças e adolescentes se organizam a partir de: relações de poder que se desenrolam nos serviços que atendem às situações de violência; rotinas instituídas para suprir as demandas de atendimento nos serviços e o inter-jogo entre a concepção de violência como um problema de saúde pública e a de violência como um problema social. a maneira como essas práticas estão organizadas se reflete em ações pouco protetivas frente às situações de violência intrafamiliar contra crianças e adolescentes. analizar, basado en el discurso profesional, como ocurre la organización de sus prácticas frente a las situaciones de violencia doméstica intrafamiliar contra niños y adolescentes. investigación cualitativa realizada con 15 profesionales que trabajan en salud y servicios sociales en el sur de Brasil. Los datos fueron recolectados a través de entrevistas semiestructuradas realizadas en el lugar de trabajo de los participantes. Para el análisis de los datos se construyó una matriz teórica basada en la Etnografia Institucional y utilizada la técnica de análisis textual del discurso. las prácticas profesionales desarrolladas en situaciones de violencia intrafamiliar contra los niños y adolescentes se organizan a partir de: las relaciones de poder que tienen lugar en los servicios que responden a las situaciones de violencia; las rutinas puestas en practica para satisfacer las demandas de servicios de atención y el inter-juego entre la concepción de la violencia como un problema de salud pública y la violencia como un problema social. la forma en que estas prácticas se organizan se refleja en acciones de poca protección en el enfrentamiento de las situaciones de violencia intrafamiliar contra niños y adolescentes.

PFI-ZEKE (Pulsed Field Ionization-Zero Electron Kinetic Energy) para el estudio de iones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaño, F.; Fernández, J. A.; Basterretxea, A. Longarte. F.; Sánchez Rayo, M. N.; Martínez, R.

Entre las áreas hacia donde ha evolucionado la Química en los últimos años están los estudios de sistemas con especies reactivas de alta energía y los dominados por fuerzas intermoleculares débiles, con energías de unas pocas kcal/mol. En efecto, el estudio de las propiedades de los iones, comenzando por su relación con la molécula neutra de la que procede, la energía de ionización, los estados vibracionales y rotacionales, energías de enlace de Van der Waals entre el ión y una amplia variedad de otras moléculas, sus confórmeros o isómeros y sus reacciones o semi-reacciones químicas están en la raíz de la necesidad de la espectroscopía conocida como PFI-ZEKE, Pulsed Field Ionization-Zero Electron Kinetic Energy. Entre las aplicaciones que requieren estos conocimientos se encuentran la generación de plasmas para la fabricación de semiconductores, memorias magnéticas, etc, así como los sistemas astrofísicos, la ionosfera terrestre, etc. La espectroscopía ZEKE es una evolución de las de fluorescencia inducida por láser, LIF, ionización multifotónica acrecentada por resonancia, REMPI, con uno y dos colores y acoplada a un sistema de tiempo de vuelo, REMPI-TOF-MS, y las espectroscopías de doble resonancia IR-UV y UV-UV. Sus espectros y la ayuda de cálculos ab inicio permite determinar las energías de enlace de complejos de van der Waals en estados fundamental y excitados, identificar confórmeros e isómeros, obtener energías de ionización experimentales aproximadas (100 cm-1) y otras variables de interés. Al igual que con LIF, REMPI y dobles resonancias, es posible utilizar muestras gaseosas, pero los espectros están muy saturados de bandas y su interpretación es difícil o imposible. Se evitan estas dificultades estudiando las moléculas o complejos en expansiones supersónicas, donde la T de los grados de libertad solo alcanzan unos pocos K. Para realizar experimentos de ZEKE hay que utilizar una propiedad recientemente descubierta, que va en contra de lo esperado en otros sistemas físicos y que consiste en que los altos estados Rydberg de átomos, moléculas y sus complejos de van der Waals (o de los iones) tienen tiempos de vida de centenas de μ s. En resumen, el experimento y la espectroscopía ZEKE consiste en excitar un átomo, molécula o cluster sucesivamente a dos estados excitados selectivos de manera que el final sea un estado Rydberg. A continuación se aplica un campo eléctrico variable que lo ioniza y después de un cierto retraso se aplica un campo eléctrico de extracción, tanto para el electrón como para el ión. El espectro de los iones, es un espectro ZEKE. Hay varias alternativas para hacer este último proceso. El estudio de la espectroscopía y propiedades de iones y sus clusters requiere el conocimiento detallado de la espectroscopía de la molécula neutra, los estados Rydberg, de los confórmeros y sus complejos. Todo ello implica el haber estudiado los sistemas por LIF, REMPI y doble resonancia (hole burning IR-UV, UV-UV). Además solo es posible interpretar los resultados y obtener la información contenida en los espectros con ayuda de cálculos cuánticos ab initio. Hasta el momento hemos aplicado tanto el ZEKE como el conjunto de técnicas mencionadas anteriormente, a varias molécula de interés químico general como anilina y sus derivados, así como sus complejos con agua y amoniaco. Sin embargo, el método es muy versátil y puede aplicarse a iones de átomos, iones múltiples, moléculas sencillas y sus clusters así como a sus semi-reacciones. Como ejemplo de uno de estos espectros PFI-ZEKE se presenta aquí el caso del amonibenzonitrilo, ABN y solamente en su estado fundamental. En la conferencia se presentarán espectros ZEKE del ABN y moléculas similares en estados vibracionales intermedios (islas de estabilidad), así como la determinación de potenciales de ionización precisos, energías de enlace de compuestos del ión con varios disolventes y otras propiedades de interés, discutiendo sus resultados.

Tal Como Somos/Just As We Are: An Educational Film to Reduce Stigma towards Gay and Bisexual Men, Transgender Individuals & Persons Living with HIV/AIDS

PubMed Central

Ramirez-Valles, Jesus; Kuhns, Lisa M.; Manjarrez, Dianna

2013-01-01

In this paper we describe the development and dissemination of a film-based educational intervention to reduce negative attitudes towards gay and bisexual men and transgender women (GBT) and people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in Latino communities, with a focus on youth. The intervention, Tal Como Somos/Just as We Are, is based on stigma and attribution theories, extensive formative research, and community input. Evaluation findings among educators and school youth suggest the film has the potential to effectively impact attitudes towards GBT and PLWHA. The film and intervention are being disseminated using diffusion of innovations theory through community-based organizations, schools, television broadcasting and film festivals. PMID:24377496

Estructura orbital en el Problema Restringido Rectilíneo Isósceles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orellana, R. B.

Para definir problemas en Mecánica Celeste se utilizan diferentes parámetros. El conocimiento de la dinámica del problema para valores particulares de estos parámetros nos permite entender el comportamiento en casos más generales. El Problema Restringido Rectilíneo Isósceles puede ser considerado como el caso límite del Problema de Sitnikov cuando la excentricidad tiende a uno o como el Problema Isósceles cuando la masa central tiende a cero. Se ha compactificado el espacio de fases y analizado la dinámica en el límite. Esto ha permitido separar el espacio de fases en diferentes regiones dependiendo de las clases de órbitas.

Como Lo Hago Yo: Myelomeningocele

PubMed Central

Lazareff, Jorge

2014-01-01

Fortificación con ádico fólico es efectiva, pero aún falta conciencia en los jóvenes. La legalidad del aborto aumenta la importancia de la consulta prenatal. Realizo la cirugía bajo microcoscopio por razones didácticas. Irrigación continua para reducir la temperatura del tejido. Trato a la plaqueta como tejido viable. No suturo la plaqueta. No cierro músculo. ATB por una semana después de cirugía. Hidrocefalia: Válvula en todos los casos de ventriculomegalia. Médula anclada: Desanclar una sola vez. Chiari II: Revisar la válvula. Incluir en el seguimiento rendimiento escolar, puede indicar obstrucción de la válvula o médula anclada. PMID:24791217

From Rome to Como: 20 years of active research on carbon-based electrodes for lithium batteries at INP-Grenoble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yazami, Rachid

This paper reviews the main areas of research performed at different Laboratories of the Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG) over the past 20 years, specifically on cabonaceous materials for electrode applications in lithium batteries. The most significant event was the discovery in the early 1980s of reversible lithium intercalation into graphite in polymer electrolytes, which led to the use of this material in today's lithium-ion batteries. Important work was also carried out on positive electrode for primary and secondary batteries, especially graphite oxide and graphite fluoride. Most of these results were presented at the 10 IMLB series Symposia, which started in Rome in 1982 and were back to Como, Italy, in 2000.

Low temperature growth of ultra-high mass density carbon nanotube forests on conductive supports

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sugime, Hisashi; Esconjauregui, Santiago; Yang, Junwei

2013-08-12

We grow ultra-high mass density carbon nanotube forests at 450 °C on Ti-coated Cu supports using Co-Mo co-catalyst. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy shows Mo strongly interacts with Ti and Co, suppressing both aggregation and lifting off of Co particles and, thus, promoting the root growth mechanism. The forests average a height of 0.38 μm and a mass density of 1.6 g cm{sup −3}. This mass density is the highest reported so far, even at higher temperatures or on insulators. The forests and Cu supports show ohmic conductivity (lowest resistance ∼22 kΩ), suggesting Co-Mo is useful for applications requiring forest growth onmore » conductors.« less

PubMed

Rodríguez, Yarimar Rosa; Díaz, Nelson Varas

2008-01-01

El proceso de estigmatización asume una devaluación de la persona debido a una característica o marca que haya sido identificada socialmente y que permita que se le describa como diferente. Desde que se desató la epidemia del VIH/SIDA, vivir con la enfermedad ha sido señalado de manera social como una marca estigmatizante. Las manifestaciones de dicha estigmatización se han documentado entre profesionales de la salud. Este estigma puede afectar los servicios de salud que las personas que viven con VIH/SIDA reciben de estos profesionales. Los objetivos de esta investigación fueron explorar: 1) la percepción que tienen estudiantes y profesionales de la salud sobre su nivel de competencia para ofrecer servicios a personas que viven con VIH/SIDA, 2) las opiniones de éstos sobre el tipo de adiestramiento profesional recibido y la necesidad del mismo, y 3) la manifestación de actitudes estigmatizantes como indicadores de necesidad de adiestramiento profesional. La muestra total del estudio estuvo compuesta por 80 de diversas profesiones de la salud. Los resultados reflejan que algunos/as de los/as participantes han recibido formación en VIH pero ésta no ha sido suficiente para contrarrestar las nociones estigmatizantes. Discutimos las implicaciones de los resultados para investigaciones futuras y el desarrollo de intervenciones con vías de minimizar las nociones estigmatizantes en los escenarios de salud.

Estudio teórico de moléculas de interés en Astrofísica: compuestos binarios policarbonados

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Largo-Cabrerizo, A.

Se han detectado en el espacio distintos compuestos binarios policarbonados (que se pueden formular como CnX), algunos de ellos con elementos de la primera fila del sistema periódico, pero también existen otros que contienen elementos de la segunda fila, como azufre o silicio. La información experimental sobre estos últimos compuestos es escasa, por lo que los estudios teóricos son especialmente valiosos en este campo. En esta comunicación presentaremos los avances mas recientes que sobre el tema ha realizado nuestro grupo. Incidiremos particularmente en dos aspectos. En primer lugar resumiremos los estudios en los que hemos intentado proporcionar información estructural sobre carburos metálicos formados por sodio, magnesio, aluminio o calcio, que pueda ser de ayuda a la hora de caracterizar estas moléculas en laboratorio como paso previo a su eventual detección en el espacio. Un aspecto importante dentro de este primer apartado es el análisis de las propiedades moleculares en función del tamaño del sistema (cuantificado en el numero de átomos de carbono) con el objeto de intentar sistematizar su estudio. En segundo lugar comentaremos brevemente algunos de los estudios realizados sobre posibles reacciones que pueden ser vías de síntesis de este tipo de compuestos en el medio interestelar.

Resposta do detector de ondas gravitacionais Mario Schenberg ao "ringdown" de buraco negros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, C. A.; Aguiar, O. D.; Magalhães, N. S.

2003-08-01

Acredita-se que quando duas estrelas de nêutrons coalescem, elas, eventualmente, formam um buraco negro com massa igual a soma das massas dos objetos originais. Durante a formação do buraco negro, o espaço-tempo em torno do sistema sofre perturbações que se propagam na forma de radiação gravitacional. A forma de onda associada a radiação gravitacional, durante este estágio, aproxima-se a uma senóide exponencialmente amortecida. Este tipo de sinal é conhecido como "ringdown", e seu comportamento e parametrização são muito bem conhecidos. Neste trabalho, simulamos computacionalmente sinais provenientes do "ringdown" de buracos negros, com a finalidade de testar o desempenho do detector de ondas gravitacionais Mario Schenberg em observá-los, quando entrar em funcionamento. Este primeiro teste teórico ajudou-nos a criar estratégias de detecção de sinais imersos no ruído instrumental. Calculamos a relação sinal-ruído como uma função da frequência, bem como sua integral dentro da faixa de sensibilidade do detector. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o detector Schenberg terá sensibilidade suficiente para detectar este tipo de sinal, proveniente de fontes astrofísicas localizadas dentro de um raio de ~100kpc.

Biblioteca Virtual de Salud Enfermería Regional: Trayectoria de Construcción, Fuentes de Información, Estrategias y Próximos Pasos.

PubMed Central

Lana, Francisco C. F.; Malvárez, Silvina

2012-01-01

Resumen La BVS Enfermeria constituye un nuevo paradigma en enfermería una vez que o modelo representa una expansión de la cooperación técnica y ha como objetivos centrales promover la ampliación del acceso la información sobre enfermería la través del acceso universal equitativo y construir un patrimonio informacional en enfermería, ayudando la mejorar la formación y práctica de enfermería a actuar con compromiso ético-social en el área de educación, investigación y atención a la salud. Como resultado del proceso de sensibilización, verifica-se la construcción de Bibliotecas Virtuales de Enfermería en varios países (Brasil, Argentina, Bolívia y Uruguay). La expectativa es que las BVS’s nacionais convergen a un gran portal que se está construyendo en una colaboración con BIREME/OPS/OMS, de la Asesoría Regional de Enfermería de la OPS-Washington y de Ministerio de Salud del Brasil, así como instituciones líderes en la producción del conocimiento en enfermería Iberoamérica. PMID:24199093

Perda de massa em ventos empoeirados de estrelas supergigantes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidotto, A. A.; Jatenco-Pereira, V.

2003-08-01

Em praticamente todas as regiões do diagrama HR, as estrelas apresentam evidências observacionais de perda de massa. Na literatura, pode-se encontrar trabalhos que tratam tanto do diagnóstico da perda de massa como da construção de modelos que visam explicá-la. O amortecimento de ondas Alfvén tem sido utilizado como mecanismo de aceleração de ventos homogêneos. Entretanto, sabe-se que os envelopes de estrelas frias contêm grãos sólidos e moléculas. Com o intuito de estudar a interação entre as ondas Alfvén e a poeira e a sua conseqüência na aceleração do vento estelar, Falceta-Gonçalves & Jatenco-Pereira (2002) desenvolveram um modelo de perda de massa para estrelas supergigantes. Neste trabalho, apresentamos um estudo do modelo acima proposto para avaliar a dependência da taxa de perda de massa com alguns parâmetros iniciais como, por exemplo, a densidade r0, o campo magnético B0, o comprimento de amortecimento da onda L0, seu fluxo f0, entre outros. Sendo assim, aumentando f0 de 10% a partir de valores de referência, vimos que aumenta consideravelmente, enquanto que um aumento de mesmo valor em r0, B0 e L0 acarreta uma diminuição em .

Energy Storage Applications in Power Systems with Renewable Energy Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghofrani, Mahmoud

In this dissertation, we propose new operational and planning methodologies for power systems with renewable energy sources. A probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) is developed to model wind power variations and evaluate the power system operation with intermittent renewable energy generation. The methodology is used to calculate the operating and ramping reserves that are required to compensate for power system uncertainties. Distributed wind generation is introduced as an operational scheme to take advantage of the spatial diversity of renewable energy resources and reduce wind power fluctuations using low or uncorrelated wind farms. The POPF is demonstrated using the IEEE 24-bus system where the proposed operational scheme reduces the operating and ramping reserve requirements and operation and congestion cost of the system as compared to operational practices available in the literature. A stochastic operational-planning framework is also proposed to adequately size, optimally place and schedule storage units within power systems with high wind penetrations. The method is used for different applications of energy storage systems for renewable energy integration. These applications include market-based opportunities such as renewable energy time-shift, renewable capacity firming, and transmission and distribution upgrade deferral in the form of revenue or reduced cost and storage-related societal benefits such as integration of more renewables, reduced emissions and improved utilization of grid assets. A power-pool model which incorporates the one-sided auction market into POPF is developed. The model considers storage units as market participants submitting hourly price bids in the form of marginal costs. This provides an accurate market-clearing process as compared to the 'price-taker' analysis available in the literature where the effects of large-scale storage units on the market-clearing prices are neglected. Different case studies are provided to demonstrate our operational-planning framework and economic justification for different storage applications. A new reliability model is proposed for security and adequacy assessment of power networks containing renewable resources and energy storage systems. The proposed model is used in combination with the operational-planning framework to enhance the reliability and operability of wind integration. The proposed framework optimally utilizes the storage capacity for reliability applications of wind integration. This is essential for justification of storage deployment within regulated utilities where the absence of market opportunities limits the economic advantage of storage technologies over gas-fired generators. A control strategy is also proposed to achieve the maximum reliability using energy storage systems. A cost-benefit analysis compares storage technologies and conventional alternatives to reliably and efficiently integrate different wind penetrations and determines the most economical design. Our simulation results demonstrate the necessity of optimal storage placement for different wind applications. This dissertation also proposes a new stochastic framework to optimally charge and discharge electric vehicles (EVs) to mitigate the effects of wind power uncertainties. Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) service for hedging against wind power imbalances is introduced as a novel application for EVs. This application enhances the predictability of wind power and reduces the power imbalances between the scheduled output and actual power. An Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) wind speed model is developed to forecast the wind power output. Driving patterns of EVs are stochastically modeled and the EVs are clustered in the fleets of similar daily driving patterns. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) simulates the system behavior by generating samples of system states using the wind ARMA model and EVs driving patterns. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used in combination with MCS to optimally coordinate the EV fleets for their V2G services and minimize the penalty cost associated with wind power imbalances. The economic characteristics of automotive battery technologies and costs of V2G service are incorporated into a cost-benefit analysis which evaluates the economic justification of the proposed V2G application. Simulation results demonstrate that the developed algorithm enhances wind power utilization and reduces the penalty cost for wind power under-/over-production. This offers potential revenues for the wind producer. Our cost-benefit analysis also demonstrates that the proposed algorithm will provide the EV owners with economic incentives to participate in V2G services. The proposed smart scheduling strategy develops a sustainable integrated electricity and transportation infrastructure.

Estudio del comportamiento tribologico y de las interacciones de superficie de nuevos nanofluidos ionicos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa Rodriguez, Tulia

Ionic liquids are molten salts which are liquid at room temperature or at low temperatures and present a unique combination of properties. In the present work, we focus on their use as lubricants in complex tribological problems such as the lubrication of metals that slide against themselves, the development of water based lubricants and new self-lubricated surfaces. When it is difficult to reduce friction and wear by lubrication, as in the case of magnesium alloys, ionic liquids are studied as protective coatings precursors. Surface interactions and corrosion processes with protic and aprotic ionic liquids on copper and steel have been determined in order to develop new lubricants and lubricant additives. In the copper/copper contact, all ionic liquids present better tribological performance than the polyalphaolefin synthetic oil, except for the oleate derivative. New protic ionic liquids are not only exceptional lubricants of the steel/sapphire contact as neat lubricants, but when they are used as additives in water, the formation of a boundary layer after water evaporation occurs, thus reducing friction and wear. The formation of this boundary layer on steel under static conditions is described in order to prevent the running-in period with respect to the solution of ionic liquid in water. The best lubricating behaviour for the copper/copper contact and also for the steel/sapphire contact is obtained for the diprotic ammonium dianionic adipate, that has two carboxylate groups in its anion. A higher polarity and a higher number of ammonium protons, carboxylate and hydroxyl groups would give rise to stronger surface interaction with the metal surfaces and more stable boundary films. The tribological performance of new aprotic thiazolium ionic liquids and commercial aprotic imidazolium ionic liquids has been compared as lubricants of the steel/sapphire contact, obtaining the best results for the bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide derivatives, and also preventing tribocorrosion processes. The formation of a coating layer on magnesium alloys from phosphonate imidazolium ionic liquids by immersion and by chronoamperometry has been described. The new coatings reduce the abrasive wear in the magnesium-aluminium alloy but they are not effective in the magnesium-zinc alloy, which prevent the formation of continuous coatings. Los liquidos ionicos son sales liquidas a temperatura ambiente o bajas temperaturas que presentan excelentes propiedades fisico-quimicas. En el presente trabajo se estudian como lubricantes en problemas tribologicos complejos como la lubricacion de metales contra si mismos, el desarrollo de lubricantes base agua y de nuevas superficies autolubricadas. Cuando no es posible reducir la friccion y desgaste mediante lubricacion, como en las aleaciones de magnesio, los liquidos ionicos se han estudiado como precursores de recubrimientos protectores. Se han determinado las interacciones superficiales y los procesos de corrosion sobre cobre y sobre acero con diferentes liquidos ionicos proticos y aproticos para desarrollar nuevos lubricantes y aditivos. En el contacto cobre/cobre, excepto el liquido ionico protico derivado del oleato, todos los liquidos ionicos estudiados presentan mejor comportamiento tribologico que el lubricante comercial Polialfaolefina 6. En el contacto acero/zafiro, los nuevos liquidos ionicos proticos son buenos lubricantes cuando se utilizan en estado puro, y, como aditivos en agua, generan peliculas adsorbidas sobre la superficie del metal reduciendo la friccion y el desgaste tras la evaporacion del agua. Para evitar el periodo de alta friccion inicial en presencia de agua, se han generado peliculas superficiales de liquido ionico sobre el acero en condiciones estaticas. El mejor comportamiento lubricante tanto en el contacto cobre/cobre como en el contacto acero/zafiro se obtiene para el liquido ionico protico derivado del anion adipato, con dos grupos carboxilicos. Las interacciones de los grupos hidroxilo y carboxilato con la superficie metalica y los puentes de hidrogeno entre cation y anion podrian ser los responsables del buen comportamiento tribologico. Se ha comparado el comportamiento tribologico de los liquidos ionicos aproticos derivados de imidazolio y tiazolio como lubricantes del contacto acero/zafiro, obteniendose los mejores resultados para los derivados del anion bis(trifluorometanosulfonil)imida, que evita a su vez los procesos de tribocorrosion. Se han generado recubrimientos sobre aleaciones de magnesio con tres liquidos ionicos derivados del anion fosfonato, tanto por inmersion como mediante cronoamperometria. Los nuevos recubrimientos reducen el dano superficial por deslizamiento o abrasion de la aleacion magnesio-aluminio pero no de la aleacion magnesio-cinc, que impide la formacion de recubrimientos continuos.

Monóxido de carbono

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

La mayoria de los accidentes causados por envenenamiento por monoxido de carbono (CO) se producen en los hogares y estan relacionados a nuestras actividades diarias como cocinar y usar la calefaccion.

If Your Child Learns in Two Languages: A Parent's Guide for Improving Educational Opportunities for Children Acquiring English as a Second Language = Si su nino aprende en dos idiomes: Una guia para que las familias sepan como mejorar las oportunidades educativas de los ninos que adquieren el ingles como segunda lengua = Neu lon Ban Hoc Bang Hai Thu Tieng: Chi-nam cua phu-huynh de cai tien co hoi hoc van cua con em dang hoc Anh van nhu sinh ngu thu hai.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zelasko, Nancy; Antunez, Beth

This guide, in English, Spanish, and Vietnamese, aims to inform parents of students who have learned or are learning English as a Second Language about appropriate approaches for educating children so that they can work with schools to ensure a high quality education for their children. The emphasis is on explaining the laws, schools, and research…

Enhanced hydrogen evolution reaction on hybrids of cobalt phosphide and molybdenum phosphide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Si-Ling; Chou, Tsu-Chin; Samireddi, Satyanarayana; Chen, Kuei-Hsien; Chen, Li-Chyong; Chen, Wei-Fu

2017-03-01

Production of hydrogen from water electrolysis has stimulated the search of sustainable electrocatalysts as possible alternatives. Recently, cobalt phosphide (CoP) and molybdenum phosphide (MoP) received great attention owing to their superior catalytic activity and stability towards the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) which rivals platinum catalysts. In this study, we synthesize and study a series of catalysts based on hybrids of CoP and MoP with different Co/Mo ratio. The HER activity shows a volcano shape and reaches a maximum for Co/Mo = 1. Tafel analysis indicates a change in the dominating step of Volmer-Hyrovský mechanism. Interestingly, X-ray diffraction patterns confirmed a major ternary interstitial hexagonal CoMoP2 crystal phase is formed which enhances the electrochemical activity.

Conceptos Basicos Sobre el Propano (in Spanish)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El propano provee energia a mas de 143.000 vehiculos en los Estados Unidos y 23 millones en todo el mundo. Flotas de todos los Estados Unidos han implementado con exito el uso de vehiculos que funcionan con gas propano, y en la actualidad varios funcionan gracias a este gas, incluyendo autobuses escolares, lanzaderas y autobuses publicos, asi como tambien furgonetas, taxis, vehiculos utilizados por las fuerzas del orden, barredoras de calles y camiones para uso profesional. El propano tambien se utiliza con frecuencia en aplicaciones fuera de la carretera, tales como montacargas, podadoras y equipos de uso profesional y otrosmore » equipos agricolas. Las ventajas del propano incluyen la disponibilidad interna, su rendimiento y el hecho de que genera menos emisiones de gases contaminantes que otras alternativas energeticas.« less

Spanish Summary (Nuevos meteoritos encountrados en lmilac)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1987-03-01

Desde tiempos prehistoricos han sido coleccionadas piedras que caen dei cielo. Hasta hace poco eran la unica fuente para hacer estudios de laboratorio de la materia extragal, ktica, e incluso en nuestra era espacial, siguen siendo una valiosa fuente de investigacion de la temprana historia dei sistema solar. Se estima que como termine medio cada kilometro cuadrado de la superficie terrestre es golpeada cada millon de aiios por un meteorito con un pese superior a 500 gramos. La mayoria se pierden en los oceanos 0 caen en regiones con escasa poblacion. Como resultado, los museos en el munda reciben anualmente tan solo alrededor de 6 meteoritos cuya caida fuera atestiguada. Otros llegan por hallazgos casuales que en la mayoria de los casos son meteoritos que han cardo en tiempos prehistoricos.

[Competence in biocentric ethics.

PubMed

Stepke, Fernando Lolas

2012-07-01

ResumenEste artículo explora el origen y la conceptualización de la bioética en tanto ética biocéntrica, definida por el pionero Fritz Jahr como un imperativo hipotético que llama a respetar la vida en todas sus formas. Tras describirla como proceso social, procedimiento técnico y producto académico, se enumeran y comentan algunas competencias que debieran presidir el empleo del discurso bioético en cualquier punto del complejo social "investigación médica": miembros de comités de ética de investigación, investigadores, empresarios, administradores. Cada uno de estos grupos, en su "cultura epistémica" propia, define y explicita los principios básicos en tanto expresión de valores y leyes generales.

Les déformations eburnéennes de l'unité birrimienne de la comoé (côte d'ivoire)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, M.

The analysis of Eburnean strain fields in the Upper (?) Birrimian Comoé Unit shows four great stages of tectogenesis: an early cleavage subparallel to stratification which results from synkinematic granitoïd intrusions; a folding (N40°E to N60°E); a transcurrent faulting period, essentially ductile N-S sinistral; N120°E schistosity, and a N110°E transcurrent ductile sinistral (?) faulting phase. The importance of the sinistral N-S faulting system and, to a lesser extent, the N120°E schistosity direction, is shown. The probable rôle of these directions (particularly N-S) from Liberian to Upper Cretaceous is shown by the within-plate tectonic occurrences in the West-African craton.

Tal Como Somos/just as we are: an educational film to reduce stigma toward gay and bisexual men, transgender individuals, and persons living with HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Ramirez-Valles, Jesus; Kuhns, Lisa M; Manjarrez, Dianna

2014-04-01

In this article, the authors describe the development and dissemination of a film-based educational intervention to reduce negative attitudes toward gay and bisexual men, transgender women, and people living with HIV/AIDS in Latino communities, with a focus on youth. The intervention, Tal Como Somos/Just as We Are, is based on stigma and attribution theories, extensive formative research, and community input. Evaluation findings among educators and school youth suggest the film has the potential to effectively influence attitudes toward gay and bisexual men, transgender women, and people living with HIV/AIDS. The film and intervention are being disseminated using diffusion of innovations theory through community-based organizations, schools, television broadcasting, and film festivals.

Investigación del USGS sobre el ecosistema de arrecifes de coral en el Atlántico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Zawada, David G.; Richey, Julie N.; Kellogg, Christina A.; Toth, Lauren T.; Torres-Garcia, Legna M.

2015-10-23

Los arrecifes de coral son estructuras sólidas, biomineralizadas que protegen comunidades costeras actuando como barreras protectoras de peligros tales como los huracanes y los tsunamis. Estos proveen arena a las playas a través de procesos naturales de erosión, fomentan la industria del turismo, las actividades recreacionales y proveen hábitats pesqueros esenciales. La conti-nua degradación mundial de ecosistemas de arrecifes de coral está bien documentada. Existe la necesidad de enfoque y organización de la ciencia para entender los procesos complejos físicos y biológicos e interacciones que están afectando el estado de los arrecifes coralinos y su capacidad para responder a un entorno cambiante.

Astronomy in the Classroom: Why? (Spanish Title: Astronomía en la Clase: ¿Por Qué?) Astronomia na Sala de Aula: Por Quê?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daros Gama, Leandro; Bagdonas Henrique, Alexandre

2010-07-01

There are many discussions about the relevance of the topics covered in classes. One subject in particular is the focus of this essay: astronomy. In what sense and to what extent it would be worth to teach it in science or other kind of classes? In this paper we discuss some aspects of the advantages of dealing with this area of knowledge in schools, taking into account the epistemological and axiological dimensions of astronomy, in light of the vision of science as an intelligent dialogue with the world (Bachelard), in addition to the "problematization" knowledge of Paulo Freire. We propose that in fact the Astronomy does not need to be seen as just a new set of contents to be taught, but appears as a set of motivational contents for historical-philosophical discussions, and permit the discussion of concepts of other disciplines. Numerosas discusiones se están llevando a cabo acerca de la pertinencia de los temas tradicionalmente tratados en las clases. Uno de los temas, en particular, es el foco de este ensayo: la astronomía. ¿En qué sentido y en qué medida sería conveniente tratarla en clase, ya sea en clases de ciencias naturales, específicamente en las de astronomía o asignaturas afines? Elaboramos en este artículo algunos aspectos de las ventajas de tratar esta área del conocimiento en las escuelas, teniendo en cuenta las dimensiones epistemológica y axiológica de la astronomía, a la luz de la visión de la ciencia como un diálogo inteligente con el mundo (Bachelard), además de la propuesta del conocimiento "problematizador" de Paulo Freire. Proponemos que en realidad la astronomía no tiene por qué ser vista sólo como un nuevo conjunto de contenidos que se enseñan, sino que aparece como un conjunto de temas de motivación para el debate histórico-filosófico y para permitir la discusión de los conceptos típicos de otras disciplinas. Muitas discussões vêm acontecendo sobre a relevância dos temas abordados em sala de aula. Um tema, em particular, é foco deste ensaio: a astronomia. Em que sentido e em que medida valeria a pena abordá-la em aulas, seja de ciências, seja de astronomia especificamente, ou em disciplinas afins? Discutimos neste texto alguns aspectos das vantagens de se tratar essa área do conhecimento nas escolas, levando em conta as dimensões epistemológica e axiológica da astronomia, à luz da visão da ciência como um diálogo inteligente com o mundo, de Bachelard, além da proposta de problematização do conhecimento, de Paulo Freire. Proporemos que de fato a astronomia não precisa ser vista como apenas um novo conjunto de conteúdos a serem ensinados, mas figura como conjunto de temas motivadores para discussões histórico-filosóficas, além de permitir a abordagem de conceitos típicos de outras disciplinas.

Health and innovation: economic dynamics and Welfare State in Brazil.

PubMed

Gadelha, Carlos Augusto Grabois; Braga, Patrícia Seixas da Costa

2016-11-03

The effective enforcement of the access to healthcare as fundamental right requires an important theoretical and political effort at linking the often contradictory economic and social dimensions of development. This study suggests the need for a systemic view of policies related to the industrial base and innovation in health and the construction of the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS). The authors investigate the relations between health, innovation, and development, seeking to show and update the political, economic, and social determinants of the recent Brazilian experience with the Health Economic-Industrial Complex (HEIC). They discuss how the agenda for innovation and domestic industrial production in health gained a central place in the project for construction of the SUS. The article thus seeks to link inherent issues from the agenda for development, production, and innovation to social policy in healthcare, as observed in recent years, and based on this analysis, points to political and conceptual challenges for implementing the SUS, especially as regards strengthening its technological and industrial base. As a byproduct, the article develops an analytical and factual focus on the consolidation of the HEIC in Brazil, both as a dynamic vector of industrial development, generating investment, income, employment, and innovations, and as a decisive element for reducing vulnerability and structural dependence in health. The authors aim to show that strengthening the SUS and orienting it to social needs is an essential part of building a social Welfare State in Brazil. Resumo: A efetivação da saúde como um direito fundamental exige importante esforço, teórico e político, de articulação das dimensões econômicas e sociais, por vezes contraditórias, do desenvolvimento. Este trabalho indica a necessidade de um olhar sistêmico das políticas relacionadas à base produtiva e de inovação em saúde e à construção do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). Investiga as relações entre saúde, inovação e desenvolvimento, buscando mostrar e atualizar os determinantes políticos, econômicos e sociais da experiência brasileira recente relacionada ao Complexo Econômico-Industrial da Saúde (CEIS). Mostra como a agenda da inovação e da produção nacional em saúde ganhou centralidade no projeto de construção do SUS. O artigo procura, assim, articular questões inerentes à agenda do desenvolvimento, da produção e da inovação com a política social em saúde, tal como observado nos últimos anos e, valendo-se de sua análise, aponta desafios políticos e conceituais para a efetivação do SUS, em especial no que se refere ao fortalecimento de sua base tecnológica e produtiva. Como desdobramento, desenvolve um enfoque analítico e factual que relaciona a consolidação do CEIS no Brasil tanto como um vetor dinâmico do desenvolvimento industrial, gerando investimento, renda, emprego e inovações, quanto como elemento decisivo para a redução da vulnerabilidade e da dependência estrutural em saúde. Procura mostrar que seu fortalecimento e direcionamento para as necessidades sociais é parte essencial da construção de um Estado de Bem-Estar Social no Brasi.

Analysis of the discrepancies identified during medication reconciliation on patient admission in cardiology units: a descriptive study.

PubMed

Lombardi, Natália Fracaro; Mendes, Antonio Eduardo Matoso; Lucchetta, Rosa Camila; Reis, Wálleri Christini Torelli; Fávero, Maria Luiza Drechsel; Correr, Cassyano Januário

2016-08-15

this observational study aimed to describe the discrepancies identified during medication reconciliation on patient admission to cardiology units in a large hospital. the medication history of patients was collected within 48 hours after admission, and intentional and unintentional discrepancies were classified as omission, duplication, dose, frequency, timing, and route of drug administration. most of the patients evaluated were women (58.0%) with a mean age of 59 years, and 75.5% of the patients had a Charlson comorbidity index score between 1 and 3. Of the 117 discrepancies found, 50.4% were unintentional. Of these, 61.0% involved omission, 18.6% involved dosage, 18.6% involved timing, and 1.7% involved the route of drug administration. this study revealed a high prevalence of discrepancies, most of which were related to omissions, and 50% were unintentional. These results reveal the number of drugs that are not reincorporated into the treatment of patients, which can have important clinical consequences. este estudo observacional teve como objetivo descrever discrepâncias encontradas na realização de conciliação medicamentosa de pacientes admitidos em unidades de cardiologia de um hospital de grande porte. a história de medicação dos pacientes foi coletada dentro de 48h após a admissão, e as discrepâncias, identificadas como intencionais ou não intencionais, foram classificadas como de: omissão, duplicidade, dose, frequência, intervalo e via. a maioria dos pacientes incluídos pertençia ao sexo feminino (58,0%), com idade média de 59 anos, e com índice de comorbidades de Charlson entre 1 e 3 (75,5% dos casos). Das 117 discrepâncias encontradas, 50,4% foram não intencionais. Dessas, 61,0% foram de omissão, 18,6% de dose, 18,6% de intervalo e 1,7% de via de administração. o estudo mostra a alta prevalência de discrepâncias, principalmente de omissão, sendo quase metade não intencionais. Esse dado remete ao número de medicamentos que não são reincorporados ao tratamento dos pacientes, podendo repercutir em consequências clínicas importantes. este estudio observacional tuvo como objetivo describir discrepancias encontradas en la realización de la conciliación medicamentosa de pacientes admitidos en unidades de cardiología de un hospital de gran porte. la historia de medicación de los pacientes fue recolectada dentro de 48h después de la admisión, y las discrepancias, identificadas como intencionales o no intencionales, fueron clasificadas como: omisión, duplicidad, dosis, frecuencia, intervalo y vía. la mayoría de los pacientes incluidos pertenecía al sexo femenino (58,0%), con edad promedio de 59 años, y con índice de comorbilidad de Charlson entre 1 y 3 (75,5% de los casos). De las 117 discrepancias encontradas, 50,4% fueron no intencionales. De estas, 61,0% fueron de omisión, 18,6% de dosis, 18,6% de intervalo y 1,7% de vía de administración. el estudio muestra la alta prevalencia de discrepancias, principalmente de omisión, siendo casi mitad de ellas no intencionales. Ese dato nos indica el número de medicamentos que no son reincorporados al tratamiento de los pacientes, lo que puede repercutir en consecuencias clínicas importantes.

Late Glacial to Holocene environmental variabilities: A new multi-proxy paleolimnological study of sedimentary sequences from Como (northern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höbig, N.; Martinelli, E.; Motella, S.; Michetti, A. M.; Livio, F.; Tinner, W.; Reicherter, K.; Castelletti, L.

2012-04-01

Lake Como (northern Italy) is the deepest Italian lake, reaching a depth of about 425 m. The lambda-shaped lake expands about 45 km in NE-SW direction. Southwards of the hydrologically closed western branch, two sediment cores of 70 m (S1) and 65 m length (S2) were taken in the year 2005 close to the cathedral of Como (Piazza Verdi). The drilling sites are located in the middle of the Southern Alps, some 300 m from the present-day lakeshore. The cores provide the first detailed Late Glacial to Holocene multi-proxy record for the Lake Como basin. Our research is aimed at investigating the environmental and geological evolution of the Insubria Region. The multi-proxy study of the stratigraphic sequences contain geophysical, geotechnical, sedimentological, paleobotanical, and radiocarbon analyses. They have been performed for core S1 and are still in progress on core S2. With this data the working group focuses on two main issues. The first topic is the reconstruction of the natural and anthropogenic processes controlling the ground subsidence in the Como urban area (e.g., Comerci et al., 2007) and another aim is to reconstruct vegetation and land-use dynamics. In particular, 150 samples of vegetal macroremains have been collected in the palustrine deposits along S1 core, down to 31,00 m. Below this depth (dated 14C 12,496 ± 55 yr BP - 15,050 - 14,250 cal yr BP), the amount of plant macroremains in the sediment drops dramatically. The taxonomic determination was carried out on more than 800 macroremains. They are represented by fragments of wood, leaves, needles, seeds, fruits, mosses and tiny charcoals (Motella, 2009, unpublished PhD Thesis). Picea/Larix, Pinus sp., Juniperus with Betula, found in the deeper levels (30.80 - 30.00 m), are the first arboreal taxa that colonized the shores of Lake Como, and show that the reforestation began in this area about 16,000 years ago. During the early Holocene (25.10 m) Abies alba expanded and further upwards the sequence mixed deciduous forests became important. Preliminary results of palynological analyses for a section of the core S2 (35.04 - 18.12 m), show Late Glacial sediments in the depth of 35.04 - 31.16 m, due to vegetation changes related to natural climatic variability, with an alternation of communities typical of cold (Poaceae, Artemisia, Juniperus, Pinus and Betula) and temperate climates (e.g. Quercus). Later, during the Holocene, forests composed by mostly deciduous broadleaves and Abies alba expanded. During the mid and late Holocene human impact increased and modified vegetation. This is shown by the increase of herbs and heliofilous shrubs (26.51 m), typical of deforested spaces for fields and pastures. Human exploitation of wood is represented for example by the dramatic decline of Abies alba (24.97 m). Finally, the increase of Cerealia (19.39 m) is clearly related to intensified agricultural activities. The results of further paleobotanical and geophysical analyses which are in progress will be presented during the conference. Moreover, geochemical measurements (e.g., XRF) will be performed in future for core S2. Researches realized within the project of Italy-Switzerland Cooperation SITINET "Censimento, valorizzazione e messa in rete di siti geologici e archeologici" (Census, increase of value and computerization of geological and archaeological sites). Interreg IV A "Geo-Archeositi dell'Insubria" (Geo-Archaeosites of Insubria).

Emergencias

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Aprenda cómo usted puede prepararse y recuperarse de los desastres naturales como los huracanes y las inundaciones, aceite informe y derrames de sustancias peligrosas, y cómo la EPA responde a derramar emergencia.

Geophysical investigations of the Olonium Roman site (Northern Como Lake)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arlsan, Ermanno; Biella, Giancarlo; Boniolo, Graziano; Caporusso, Donatella; de Franco, Roberto; Lozej, Alfredo; Veronese, Luigi

1999-03-01

The study area is located at S. Agata (Gera Lario), a small center at the northern end of Como Lake, near the junction of Valchiavenna and Valtellina Valleys. This site played a strategic role since ancient times, providing the control on the communications routes to both the Como Lake and the Spluga and Septimer alpine passes. Since the end of the last century archaeological findings are reported in literature, also supported, from the early XI century, by archival documents confirming the existence of the `Olonium' settlement, an administrative and fiscal center of primary importance, as well as a parish amongst the most influential in the Como Lake area. Within an area of 45,000 m 2 an electrical survey has been carried out in conjunction with magnetic and GPR investigations. These studies have indicated the presence of a number of sub-areas characterized by significant anomalies defined by the overlapping of the results obtained from two or more geophysical methods. In two of such sub-areas, excavation tests have been conducted, which have brought to light a number of archaeological findings of interest. In one of the two sub-areas, which is characterized by the superimposition of electrical and radar anomalies, a deposit of large pebbles has been found. The origin of this deposit has not been ascertained, whether it is of fluvial origin, related to the deviation of the Adda river in the Pian di Spagna region in Roman times, or it is part of reclamation works, still of Roman times, of paleolacustrine marshes. The overlapping stratigraphy, however, suggests the development of fluvial channels between Roman and Low-Medieval times. In the other sub-area, excavations were carried out on sites defined by electrical and radar anomalies, and confirmed by the results from magnetic survey. The excavations brought to light, below the fluvial deposits, a large medieval edifice, which could be identified as the S. Stefano church abandoned in 1444. The church is built on earlier structures, amongst which an apse with a single aisle has been interpreted as a paleochristian sacellum.

The Reflective Abstraction Theory and the History of Astronomy. (Spanish Title: La Teoría de la Abstracción Reflexionante y la Historia de la Astronomía.) A Teoria da Abstração Reflexionante e a História da Astronomia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiesa Bartelmebs, Roberta; Batista Siqueira Harres, João; da Silva, João Alberto

2014-12-01

This work is presented as a theoretical essay on some facts from the history of astronomy analyzed according to the theory of reflective abstraction developed by Jean Piaget and collaborators (1970). Its aim is to understand the reasons that led to different astronomers, at the same historical period and culture, to "see" quite different evidences about the same phenomenon. In addition, we intend to facilitate the understanding of science as a human construction, subject to a time epoch and the ways of understanding of each scientist. Este trabajo se presenta como un ensayo teórico sobre algunos hechos históricos de la astronomía, analizados según la teoría de la abstracción reflexionante de Jean Piaget y sus colaboradores (1970). Se trata de comprender los motivos que llevaran a distintos astrónomos, de una misma época histórica y cultural, a "ver" diferentes evidencias sobre un mismo fenómeno. Además, se intenta posibilitar la comprensión de la ciencia como construcción humana, la cual es condicionada por su momento histórico y por las creencias y las formas de entender de los científicos. Este trabalho configura-se como um ensaio teórico a respeito de alguns fatos da história da astronomia analisados segundo a teoria da abstração reflexionante elaborada por Jean Piaget e seus colaboradores (1970). Trata-se de compreender os motivos que levaram diferentes astrônomos, da mesma época histórica e cultural, a "enxergarem" evidências tão diferentes sobre um mesmo fenômeno. Além disso, pretendemos possibilitar a compreensão das Ciências como construção humana, condicionadas a uma época e às crenças e os modos de compreender de cada cientista.

Sunspots and the Newcomb-Benford Law. (Spanish Title: Manchas Solares y la Ley de Newcomb-Benford.) Manchas Solares e a Lei de Newcomb-Benford

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Mauro A.; Lyra, Cássia S.

2008-12-01

The Newcomb-Benford's Law (LNB) of first digits is introduced to high school students in an extracurricular activity through the study of sunspots. The LNB establishes that the first digits of various sets of data describing natural occurrences are not distributed uniformly, but according to a logarithmic distribution of probability. The LNB is counter-intuitive and is a good example of how mathematics applied to the study of natural phenomena can provide surprising and unexpected results serving also as a motivating agent in the study of physical sciences. En este trabajo se describe una actividad extracurricular donde se presenta a los estudiantes la ley de los primeros dígitos de Newcomb-Benford (LNB) con el estudio de manchas solares. La LNB establece que los primeros dígitos de algunos tipos de dados de ocurrencia natural no están distribuidos en manera uniforme, pero sí de acuerdo con una distribución logarítmica de probabilidad. La LNB es contra-intuitiva y es un excelente ejemplo de como las matemáticas aplicadas al estudio de fenómenos naturales pueden sorprender al estudiante, sirviendo también como elemento motivador en la educación de ciencias y de matemáticas. Este trabalho descreve uma atividade extracurricular na qual a lei dos primeiros dígitos de Newcomb-Benford (LNB) é introduzida a estudantes através do estudo de manchas solares. A LNB estabelece que os primeiros dígitos de vários tipos de conjunto de dados de ocorrência natural não são distribuídos de maneira uniforme, mas sim de acordo com uma distribuição logarítmica de probabilidade. A LNB é contra-intuitiva e é um ótimo exemplo de como a matemática aplicada ao estudo de fenômenos naturais pode fornecer resultados surpreendentes e inesperados, servindo também como um agente motivador no ensino de ciências e matemática.

Variación temporal de las constantes fundamentales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landau, S. J.; Vucetich, H.

La variación temporal de las constantes fundamentales es un problema que ha motivado numerosos trabajos teóricos y experimentales desde la hipótesis de los grandes números de Dirac en 1937. Entre los métodos experimentales y observacionales para establecer restricciones sobre la variación de las constantes fundamentes es importante mencionar: comparación entre relojes atómicos[1], métodos geofísicos[2][3], análisis de sistemas de absorción en quasares[4][5][6] y cotas provenientes de la nucleosíntesis primordial[7]. En un trabajo reciente[5], se reportó una significativa variación en la constante de estructura fina. Intentos de unificar las cuatro interacciones fundamentales dieron como resultado teorías con múltiples dimensiones como las teorías de Kaluza-Klein y teorías de supercuerdas. Estas teorías proporcionan un marco teórico natural para el estudio de la variación temporal de las constantes fundamentales. A su vez, un modelo sencillo para estudiar la variación de la constante de estructura fina, fue propuesto en [8], a partir de premisas muy generales como ser covarianza, invarianza de gauge, causalidad y invarianza ante reversiones temporales en el electromagnetismo. Diferentes versiones de las teorías antes mencionadas coinciden en predecir variaciones temporales de las constantes fundamentales pero difieren en la forma de esta variación[9][10]. De esta manera, las restricciones establecidas experimentalmente sobre la variación de las constantes fundamentales pueden ser una herramienta importante para testear estas diferentes teorías. En este trabajo, utilizamos las cotas provenientes de diversas técnicas experimentales, para testear si las mismas son consistentes con alguna de las teorías antes mencionadas. En particular, establecemos cotas sobre la variación de los parámentros libres de las diferentes teorías como por ejemplo el radio de las dimensiones extras en las teorías tipo Kaluza-Klein.

Competencias en ética biocéntrica

PubMed Central

Stepke, Fernando Lolas

2013-01-01

Resumen Este artículo explora el origen y la conceptualización de la bioética en tanto ética biocéntrica, definida por el pionero Fritz Jahr como un imperativo hipotético que llama a respetar la vida en todas sus formas. Tras describirla como proceso social, procedimiento técnico y producto académico, se enumeran y comentan algunas competencias que debieran presidir el empleo del discurso bioético en cualquier punto del complejo social “investigación médica”: miembros de comités de ética de investigación, investigadores, empresarios, administradores. Cada uno de estos grupos, en su “cultura epistémica” propia, define y explicita los principios básicos en tanto expresión de valores y leyes generales. PMID:23459767

Weathering resistance of thin plasma polymer films on pre-coated steel =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra, Ricardo Gil Henriques

O trabalho apresentado teve origem no projecto de investigacao “Tailored Thin Plasma Polymers Films for Surface Engineering of Coil Coated Steel”, financiado pelo Programa Europeu ECSC Steel Research. Sistemas de aco galvanizado pre-pintado em banda a base de poliester e poliuretano foram submetidos a um processo de polimerizacao por plasma onde um filme fino foi depositado de modo a modificar as propriedades de superficie. Foram usados reactores de catodo oco, microondas e radio frequencia para a deposicao do polimero fino. Os sistemas preparados foram analisados de modo a verificar a influencia do processo de polimerizacao por plasma na alteracao das propriedades barreira dos sistemas pre-pintados em banda. Foi estudado o efeito dos diferentes passos do processo de polimerizacao por plasma, bem como o efeito de diferentes variaveis operatorias. A mistura precursora foi variada de modo a modificar as propriedades da superficie de modo a poder vir a obter maior hidrofobicidade, maior resistencia a marcas digitais, bem como maior facilidade de limpeza. Os testes foram conduzidos em solucao de NaCl 0,5 M. Para o trabalho foram usadas tecnicas de analise da morfologia da superficie como Microscopia de Forca Atomica e Microscopia Electronica de Varrimento. As propriedades electroquimicas dos sistemas foram estudadas por Espectroscopia de Impedancia Electroquimica. A estrutura dos filmes gerados no processo de polimerizacao por plasma foi caracterizada por Microscopia de Transmissao Electronica. A modificacao das propriedades opticas devido ao processo de polimerizacao por plasma foi tambem obtida.

Improving seasonal forecast through the state of large-scale climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samale, Chiara; Zimmerman, Brian; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Block, Paul

2017-04-01

Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. In fact, forecasts are usually skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), but predictability tends to decrease on longer lead times. The forecast lead time might be extended by using climate teleconnection, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite the ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations such as Western USA and Australia, there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other river basins, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we propose the use of the Nino Index Phase Analysis for capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e., ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Dipole Mode Index). This climate state information is used for distinguishing the different phases of the climate signals and for identifying relevant teleconnections between the observations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that mostly influence the local hydrologic conditions. The framework is applied to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Preliminary results show high correlations between SST and three to six months ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. This forecast represents a valuable information to partially anticipate the summer water availability, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como operations.

Thermophysical properties of undercooled liquid Co-Mo alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, X. J.; Wei, B.

2003-05-01

Using electromagnetic levitation in combination with the oscillating drop technique and drop calorimeter method, the surface tensions and specific heats of undercooled liquid Co-10 wt% Mo, Co-26.3 wt% Mo, and Co-37.6 wt% Mo alloys were measured. The containerless state during levitation produces substantial undercoolings up to 223 K (0.13TL), 213 K (0.13TL) and 110 K (0.07TL) respectively for these three alloys. In their respective undercooling ranges, the surface tensions were determined to be 1895 m 0.31(T m 1744), 1932 m 0.33(T m 1682), and 1989 m 0.34(T m 1607) mN mу. According to the Butler equation, the surface tensions of these three Co-Mo alloys were also calculated, and the results agree well with the experimental data. The specific heats of these three alloys are determined to be 41.85, 43.75 and 44.92 J molу Kу. Based on the determined surface tensions and specific heats, the changes in thermodynamics functions such as enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs free energy are predicted. Furthermore, the crystal nucleation, dendrite growth and Marangoni convection of undercooled Co-Mo alloys are investigated in the light of these measured thermophysical properties.