Fluid simulation of tokamak ion temperature gradient turbulence with zonal flow closure model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamagishi, Osamu, E-mail: yamagisi@nifs.ac.jp; Sugama, Hideo

Nonlinear fluid simulation of turbulence driven by ion temperature gradient modes in the tokamak fluxtube configuration is performed by combining two different closure models. One model is a gyrofluid model by Beer and Hammett [Phys. Plasmas 3, 4046 (1996)], and the other is a closure model to reproduce the kinetic zonal flow response [Sugama et al., Phys. Plasmas 14, 022502 (2007)]. By including the zonal flow closure, generation of zonal flows, significant reduction in energy transport, reproduction of the gyrokinetic transport level, and nonlinear upshift on the critical value of gradient scale length are observed.

Model test of anchoring effect on zonal disintegration in deep surrounding rock masses.

PubMed

Chen, Xu-Guang; Zhang, Qiang-Yong; Wang, Yuan; Liu, De-Jun; Zhang, Ning

2013-01-01

The deep rock masses show a different mechanical behavior compared with the shallow rock masses. They are classified into alternating fractured and intact zones during the excavation, which is known as zonal disintegration. Such phenomenon is a great disaster and will induce the different excavation and anchoring methodology. In this study, a 3D geomechanics model test was conducted to research the anchoring effect of zonal disintegration. The model was constructed with anchoring in a half and nonanchoring in the other half, to compare with each other. The optical extensometer and optical sensor were adopted to measure the displacement and strain changing law in the model test. The displacement laws of the deep surrounding rocks were obtained and found to be nonmonotonic versus the distance to the periphery. Zonal disintegration occurs in the area without anchoring and did not occur in the model under anchoring condition. By contrasting the phenomenon, the anchor effect of restraining zonal disintegration was revealed. And the formation condition of zonal disintegration was decided. In the procedure of tunnel excavation, the anchor strain was found to be alternation in tension and compression. It indicates that anchor will show the nonmonotonic law during suppressing the zonal disintegration.

Model Test of Anchoring Effect on Zonal Disintegration in Deep Surrounding Rock Masses

PubMed Central

Chen, Xu-Guang; Zhang, Qiang-Yong; Wang, Yuan; Liu, De-Jun; Zhang, Ning

2013-01-01

The deep rock masses show a different mechanical behavior compared with the shallow rock masses. They are classified into alternating fractured and intact zones during the excavation, which is known as zonal disintegration. Such phenomenon is a great disaster and will induce the different excavation and anchoring methodology. In this study, a 3D geomechanics model test was conducted to research the anchoring effect of zonal disintegration. The model was constructed with anchoring in a half and nonanchoring in the other half, to compare with each other. The optical extensometer and optical sensor were adopted to measure the displacement and strain changing law in the model test. The displacement laws of the deep surrounding rocks were obtained and found to be nonmonotonic versus the distance to the periphery. Zonal disintegration occurs in the area without anchoring and did not occur in the model under anchoring condition. By contrasting the phenomenon, the anchor effect of restraining zonal disintegration was revealed. And the formation condition of zonal disintegration was decided. In the procedure of tunnel excavation, the anchor strain was found to be alternation in tension and compression. It indicates that anchor will show the nonmonotonic law during suppressing the zonal disintegration. PMID:23997683

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Two- and three-dimensional natural and mixed convection simulation using modular zonal models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wurtz, E.; Nataf, J.M.; Winkelmann, F.

We demonstrate the use of the zonal model approach, which is a simplified method for calculating natural and mixed convection in rooms. Zonal models use a coarse grid and use balance equations, state equations, hydrostatic pressure drop equations and power law equations of the form {ital m} = {ital C}{Delta}{sup {ital n}}. The advantage of the zonal approach and its modular implementation are discussed. The zonal model resolution of nonlinear equation systems is demonstrated for three cases: a 2-D room, a 3-D room and a pair of 3-D rooms separated by a partition with an opening. A sensitivity analysis withmore » respect to physical parameters and grid coarseness is presented. Results are compared to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations and experimental data.« less

Dynamics of zonal flows in helical systems.

PubMed

Sugama, H; Watanabe, T-H

2005-03-25

A theory for describing collisionless long-time behavior of zonal flows in helical systems is presented and its validity is verified by gyrokinetic-Vlasov simulation. It is shown that, under the influence of particles trapped in helical ripples, the response of zonal flows to a given source becomes weaker for lower radial wave numbers and deeper helical ripples while a high-level zonal-flow response, which is not affected by helical-ripple-trapped particles, can be maintained for a longer time by reducing their bounce-averaged radial drift velocity. This implies a possibility that helical configurations optimized for reducing neoclassical ripple transport can simultaneously enhance zonal flows which lower anomalous transport.

Indian Ocean zonal mode activity in 20th century observations and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sendelbeck, Anja; Mölg, Thomas

2016-04-01

The Indian Ocean zonal mode (IOZM) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system with anomalous cooling in the east, warming in the west and easterly wind anomalies, resulting in a complete reversal of the climatological zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. The IOZM has a strong influence on East African climate by causing anomalously strong October - December (OND) precipitation. Using observational data and historical CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) model output, the September - November (SON) dipole mode index (DMI), OND East African precipitation and SON zonal wind index (ZWI) are calculated. We pay particular attention to detrending SSTs for calculating the DMI, which seems to have been neglected in some published research. The ZWI is defined as the area-averaged zonal wind component at 850 hPa over the central Indian Ocean. Regression analysis is used to evaluate the models' capability to represent the IOZM and its impact on east African climate between 1948 and 2005. Simple correlations are calculated between SST, zonal wind and precipitation to show their interdependence. High correlation in models implies a good representation of the influence of IOZM on East African climate variability and our goal is to detect the models with the highest correlation coefficients. In future research, these model data might be used to investigate the impact of IOZM on the East African climate variability in the late 20's century with regard to anthropogenic causes and internal variability.

Rossby and drift wave turbulence and zonal flows: The Charney-Hasegawa-Mima model and its extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connaughton, Colm; Nazarenko, Sergey; Quinn, Brenda

2015-12-01

A detailed study of the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima model and its extensions is presented. These simple nonlinear partial differential equations suggested for both Rossby waves in the atmosphere and drift waves in a magnetically-confined plasma, exhibit some remarkable and nontrivial properties, which in their qualitative form, survive in more realistic and complicated models. As such, they form a conceptual basis for understanding the turbulence and zonal flow dynamics in real plasma and geophysical systems. Two idealised scenarios of generation of zonal flows by small-scale turbulence are explored: a modulational instability and turbulent cascades. A detailed study of the generation of zonal flows by the modulational instability reveals that the dynamics of this zonal flow generation mechanism differ widely depending on the initial degree of nonlinearity. The jets in the strongly nonlinear case further roll up into vortex streets and saturate, while for the weaker nonlinearities, the growth of the unstable mode reverses and the system oscillates between a dominant jet, which is slightly inclined to the zonal direction, and a dominant primary wave. A numerical proof is provided for the extra invariant in Rossby and drift wave turbulence-zonostrophy. While the theoretical derivations of this invariant stem from the wave kinetic equation which assumes weak wave amplitudes, it is shown to be relatively well-conserved for higher nonlinearities also. Together with the energy and enstrophy, these three invariants cascade into anisotropic sectors in the k-space as predicted by the Fjørtoft argument. The cascades are characterised by the zonostrophy pushing the energy to the zonal scales. A small scale instability forcing applied to the model has demonstrated the well-known drift wave-zonal flow feedback loop. The drift wave turbulence is generated from this primary instability. The zonal flows are then excited by either one of the generation mechanisms, extracting energy from

Zonal Flows and Turbulence in Fluids and Plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, Jeffrey

2014-09-01

In geophysical and plasma contexts, zonal flows are well known to arise out of turbulence. We elucidate the transition from statistically homogeneous turbulence without zonal flows to statistically inhomogeneous turbulence with steady zonal flows. Starting from the Hasegawa--Mima equation, we employ both the quasilinear approximation and a statistical average, which retains a great deal of the qualitative behavior of the full system. Within the resulting framework known as CE2, we extend recent understanding of the symmetry-breaking `zonostrophic instability'. Zonostrophic instability can be understood in a very general way as the instability of some turbulent background spectrum to a zonally symmetricmore » coherent mode. As a special case, the background spectrum can consist of only a single mode. We find that in this case the dispersion relation of zonostrophic instability from the CE2 formalism reduces exactly to that of the 4-mode truncation of generalized modulational instability. We then show that zonal flows constitute pattern formation amid a turbulent bath. Zonostrophic instability is an example of a Type Is instability of pattern-forming systems. The broken symmetry is statistical homogeneity. Near the bifurcation point, the slow dynamics of CE2 are governed by a well-known amplitude equation, the real Ginzburg-Landau equation. The important features of this amplitude equation, and therefore of the CE2 system, are multiple. First, the zonal flow wavelength is not unique. In an idealized, infinite system, there is a continuous band of zonal flow wavelengths that allow a nonlinear equilibrium. Second, of these wavelengths, only those within a smaller subband are stable. Unstable wavelengths must evolve to reach a stable wavelength; this process manifests as merging jets. These behaviors are shown numerically to hold in the CE2 system, and we calculate a stability diagram. The stability diagram is in agreement with direct numerical simulations of the

Zonal flows and turbulence in fluids and plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Jeffrey Bok-Cheung

In geophysical and plasma contexts, zonal flows are well known to arise out of turbulence. We elucidate the transition from statistically homogeneous turbulence without zonal flows to statistically inhomogeneous turbulence with steady zonal flows. Starting from the Hasegawa--Mima equation, we employ both the quasilinear approximation and a statistical average, which retains a great deal of the qualitative behavior of the full system. Within the resulting framework known as CE2, we extend recent understanding of the symmetry-breaking 'zonostrophic instability'. Zonostrophic instability can be understood in a very general way as the instability of some turbulent background spectrum to a zonally symmetric coherent mode. As a special case, the background spectrum can consist of only a single mode. We find that in this case the dispersion relation of zonostrophic instability from the CE2 formalism reduces exactly to that of the 4-mode truncation of generalized modulational instability. We then show that zonal flows constitute pattern formation amid a turbulent bath. Zonostrophic instability is an example of a Type I s instability of pattern-forming systems. The broken symmetry is statistical homogeneity. Near the bifurcation point, the slow dynamics of CE2 are governed by a well-known amplitude equation, the real Ginzburg-Landau equation. The important features of this amplitude equation, and therefore of the CE2 system, are multiple. First, the zonal flow wavelength is not unique. In an idealized, infinite system, there is a continuous band of zonal flow wavelengths that allow a nonlinear equilibrium. Second, of these wavelengths, only those within a smaller subband are stable. Unstable wavelengths must evolve to reach a stable wavelength; this process manifests as merging jets. These behaviors are shown numerically to hold in the CE2 system, and we calculate a stability diagram. The stability diagram is in agreement with direct numerical simulations of the quasilinear

Application of zonal model on indoor air sensor network design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y. Lisa; Wen, Jin

2007-04-01

Growing concerns over the safety of the indoor environment have made the use of sensors ubiquitous. Sensors that detect chemical and biological warfare agents can offer early warning of dangerous contaminants. However, current sensor system design is more informed by intuition and experience rather by systematic design. To develop a sensor system design methodology, a proper indoor airflow modeling approach is needed. Various indoor airflow modeling techniques, from complicated computational fluid dynamics approaches to simplified multi-zone approaches, exist in the literature. In this study, the effects of two airflow modeling techniques, multi-zone modeling technique and zonal modeling technique, on indoor air protection sensor system design are discussed. Common building attack scenarios, using a typical CBW agent, are simulated. Both multi-zone and zonal models are used to predict airflows and contaminant dispersion. Genetic Algorithm is then applied to optimize the sensor location and quantity. Differences in the sensor system design resulting from the two airflow models are discussed for a typical office environment and a large hall environment.

Empirical wind model for the middle and lower atmosphere. Part 1: Local time average

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hedin, A. E.; Fleming, E. L.; Manson, A. H.; Schmidlin, F. J.; Avery, S. K.; Franke, S. J.

1993-01-01

The HWM90 thermospheric wind model was revised in the lower thermosphere and extended into the mesosphere and lower atmosphere to provide a single analytic model for calculating zonal and meridional wind profiles representative of the climatological average for various geophysical conditions. Gradient winds from CIRA-86 plus rocket soundings, incoherent scatter radar, MF radar, and meteor radar provide the data base and are supplemented by previous data driven model summaries. Low-order spherical harmonics and Fourier series are used to describe the major variations throughout the atmosphere including latitude, annual, semiannual, and longitude (stationary wave 1). The model represents a smoothed compromise between the data sources. Although agreement between various data sources is generally good, some systematic differences are noted, particularly near the mesopause. Root mean square differences between data and model are on the order of 15 m/s in the mesosphere and 10 m/s in the stratosphere for zonal wind, and 10 m/s and 4 m/s, respectively, for meridional wind.

The accuracy of temperature distributions used to derive the net transport for a zonally averaged model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.; Bhatt, Praful P.

1994-01-01

Comparisons of satellite-derived temperatures with correlative temperatures indicate that the LIMS temperatures are accurate and contain more of the needed vertical resolution for calculating a residual mean circulation for transporting tracer-like species. Generally, the LIMS temperatures are accurate to at least 2 K. Other satellite data sets are comprised of temperatures with coarser vertical resolution, leading to biases that occur with an error pattern that is characteristic of their resolution. Their biases exceed 2 K at some altitudes. Retrievals of species using an infrared limb emission technique are sensitive to any temperature bias. Generally, the IMS comparisons with other data sets for ozone and water vapor are good to better than 20 percent; this represents an independent confirmation of the quality of LIMS and temperatures. Zonal mean comparisons between LIMS and SAMS temperatures also indicate agreement to better than 2 K from about 7 to 2hPa. Therefore, we are confident that SAMS N2O and CH4 are relatively free of temperature bias in that region. These factors support the generally good agreement in G90 between model N2O transported using a LIMS-derived RMC and the N2O contours from SAMS.

On the Variation of Zonal Gravity Coefficients of a Giant Planet Caused by Its Deep Zonal Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Dali; Zhang, Keke; Schubert, Gerald

2012-04-01

Rapidly rotating giant planets are usually marked by the existence of strong zonal flows at the cloud level. If the zonal flow is sufficiently deep and strong, it can produce hydrostatic-related gravitational anomalies through distortion of the planet's shape. This paper determines the zonal gravity coefficients, J 2n , n = 1, 2, 3, ..., via an analytical method taking into account rotation-induced shape changes by assuming that a planet has an effective uniform density and that the zonal flows arise from deep convection and extend along cylinders parallel to the rotation axis. Two different but related hydrostatic models are considered. When a giant planet is in rigid-body rotation, the exact solution of the problem using oblate spheroidal coordinates is derived, allowing us to compute the value of its zonal gravity coefficients \\bar{J}_{2n}, n=1,2,3, \\dots, without making any approximation. When the deep zonal flow is sufficiently strong, we develop a general perturbation theory for estimating the variation of the zonal gravity coefficients, \\Delta {J}_{2n}={J}_{2n}-\\bar{J}_{2n}, n=1,2,3, \\dots, caused by the effect of the deep zonal flows for an arbitrarily rapidly rotating planet. Applying the general theory to Jupiter, we find that the deep zonal flow could contribute up to 0.3% of the J 2 coefficient and 0.7% of J 4. It is also found that the shape-driven harmonics at the 10th zonal gravity coefficient become dominant, i.e., \\Delta {J}_{2n} \\,{\\ge}\\, \\bar{J}_{2n} for n >= 5.

A simple inertial model for Neptune's zonal circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, Michael; Lumetta, James T.

1990-01-01

Voyager imaging observations of zonal cloud-tracked winds on Neptune revealed a strongly subrotational equatorial jet with a speed approaching 500 m/s and generally decreasing retrograde motion toward the poles. The wind data are interpreted with a speculative but revealingly simple model based on steady gradient flow balance and an assumed global homogenization of potential vorticity for shallow layer motion. The prescribed model flow profile relates the equatorial velocity to the mid-latitude shear, in reasonable agreement with the available data, and implies a global horizontal deformation scale L(D) of about 3000 km.

Self-generated zonal flows in the plasma turbulence driven by trapped-ion and trapped-electron instabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drouot, T.; Gravier, E.; Reveille, T.

This paper presents a study of zonal flows generated by trapped-electron mode and trapped-ion mode micro turbulence as a function of two plasma parameters—banana width and electron temperature. For this purpose, a gyrokinetic code considering only trapped particles is used. First, an analytical equation giving the predicted level of zonal flows is derived from the quasi-neutrality equation of our model, as a function of the density fluctuation levels and the banana widths. Then, the influence of the banana width on the number of zonal flows occurring in the system is studied using the gyrokinetic code. Finally, the impact of themore » temperature ratio T{sub e}/T{sub i} on the reduction of zonal flows is shown and a close link is highlighted between reduction and different gyro-and-bounce-average ion and electron density fluctuation levels. This reduction is found to be due to the amplitudes of gyro-and-bounce-average density perturbations n{sub e} and n{sub i} gradually becoming closer, which is in agreement with the analytical results given by the quasi-neutrality equation.« less

Numerical aspects and implementation of a two-layer zonal wall model for LES of compressible turbulent flows on unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, George Ilhwan; Moin, Parviz

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on numerical and practical aspects associated with a parallel implementation of a two-layer zonal wall model for large-eddy simulation (LES) of compressible wall-bounded turbulent flows on unstructured meshes. A zonal wall model based on the solution of unsteady three-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations on a separate near-wall grid is implemented in an unstructured, cell-centered finite-volume LES solver. The main challenge in its implementation is to couple two parallel, unstructured flow solvers for efficient boundary data communication and simultaneous time integrations. A coupling strategy with good load balancing and low processors underutilization is identified. Face mapping and interpolation procedures at the coupling interface are explained in detail. The method of manufactured solution is used for verifying the correct implementation of solver coupling, and parallel performance of the combined wall-modeled LES (WMLES) solver is investigated. The method has successfully been applied to several attached and separated flows, including a transitional flow over a flat plate and a separated flow over an airfoil at an angle of attack.

A Model Study of Zonal Forcing in the Equatorial Stratosphere by Convectively Induced Gravity Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, M. J.; Holton, James R.

1997-01-01

A two-dimensional cloud-resolving model is used to examine the possible role of gravity waves generated by a simulated tropical squall line in forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere. A simulation with constant background stratospheric winds is compared to simulations with background winds characteristic of the westerly and easterly QBO phases, respectively. In all three cases a broad spectrum of both eastward and westward propagating gravity waves is excited. In the constant background wind case the vertical momentum flux is nearly constant with height in the stratosphere, after correction for waves leaving the model domain. In the easterly and westerly shear cases, however, westward and eastward propagating waves, respectively, are strongly damped as they approach their critical levels, owing to the strongly scale-dependent vertical diffusion in the model. The profiles of zonal forcing induced by this wave damping are similar to profiles given by critical level absorption, but displaced slightly downward. The magnitude of the zonal forcing is of order 5 m/s/day. It is estimated that if 2% of the area of the Tropics were occupied by storms of similar magnitude, mesoscale gravity waves could provide nearly 1/4 of the zonal forcing required for the QBO.

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerefos, Christos; Kapsomenakis, John; Eleftheratos, Kostas; Tourpali, Kleareti; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Hubert, Daan; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Frith, Stacey; Sofieva, Viktoria; Hassler, Birgit

2018-05-01

This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle) and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD), tropopause height changes (including global warming) and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC). Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC) and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.

Results of a zonally truncated three-dimensional model of the Venus middle atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, M.

1992-01-01

Although the equatorial rotational speed of the solid surface of Venus is only 4 m s(exp-1), the atmospheric rotational speed reaches a maximum of approximately 100 m s(exp-1) near the equatorial cloud top level (65 to 70 km). This phenomenon, known as superrotation, is the central dynamical problem of the Venus atmosphere. We report here the results of numerical simulations aimed at clarifying the mechanism for maintaining the equatorial cloud top rotation. Maintenance of an equatorial rotational speed maximum above the surface requires waves or eddies that systematically transport angular momentum against its zonal mean gradient. The zonally symmetric Hadley circulation is driven thermally and acts to reduce the rotational speed at the equatorial cloud top level; thus wave or eddy transport must counter this tendency as well as friction. Planetary waves arising from horizontal shear instability of the zonal flow (barotropic instability) could maintain the equatorial rotation by transporting angular momentum horizontally from midlatitudes toward the equator. Alternatively, vertically propagating waves could provide the required momentum source. The relative motion between the rotating atmosphere and the pattern of solar heating, which as a maximum where solar radiation is absorbed near the cloud tops, drives diurnal and semidiurnal thermal tides that propagate vertically away from the cloud top level. The effect of this wave propagation is to transport momentum toward the cloud top level at low latitudes and accelerate the mean zonal flow there. We employ a semispectral primitive equation model with a zonal mean flow and zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. These waves correspond to the diurnal and semidiurnal tides, but they can also be excited by barotropic or baroclinic instability. Waves of higher wavenumbers and interactions between the waves are neglected. Symmetry about the equator is assumed, so the model applies to one hemisphere and covers the altitude range 30 to

The Relationship Between the Zonal Mean ITCZ and Regional Precipitation during the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niezgoda, K.; Noone, D.; Konecky, B.

2017-12-01

Characteristics of the zonal mean Tropical Rain Belt (TRB, i.e. the ITCZ + the land-based monsoons) are often inferred from individual proxy records of precipitation or other hydroclimatic variables. However, these inferences can be misleading. Here, an isotope-enabled climate model simulation is used to evaluate metrics of the zonal mean ITCZ vs. regional hydrological characteristics during the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 kya). The MH provides a unique perspective on the relationship between the ITCZ and regional hydrology because of large, orbitally-driven shifts in tropical precipitation as well as a critical mass of proxy records. By using a climate model with simulated water isotopes, characteristics of atmospheric circulation and water transport processes can be inferred, and comparison with isotope proxies can be made more directly. We find that estimations of the zonal-mean ITCZ are insufficient for evaluating regional responses of hydrological cycles to forcing changes. For example, one approximation of a 1.5-degree northward shift in the zonal-mean ITCZ position during the MH corresponded well with northward shifts in maximum rainfall in tropical Africa, but did not match southward shifts in the tropical Pacific or longitudinal shifts in the Indian monsoon region. In many regions, the spatial distribution of water vapor isotopes suggests that changes in moisture source and atmospheric circulation were a greater influence on precipitation distribution, intensity, and isotope ratio than the average northward shift in ITCZ latitude. These findings reinforce the idea that using tropical hydrological proxy records to infer zonal-mean characteristics of the ITCZ may be misleading. Rather, tropical proxy records of precipitation, particularly those that record precipitation isotopes, serve as a guideline for regional hydrological changes while model simulations can put them in the context of zonal mean tropical convergence.

Convectively driven decadal zonal accelerations in Earth's fluid core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

More, Colin; Dumberry, Mathieu

2018-04-01

Azimuthal accelerations of cylindrical surfaces co-axial with the rotation axis have been inferred to exist in Earth's fluid core on the basis of magnetic field observations and changes in the length-of-day. These accelerations have a typical timescale of decades. However, the physical mechanism causing the accelerations is not well understood. Scaling arguments suggest that the leading order torque averaged over cylindrical surfaces should arise from the Lorentz force. Decadal fluctuations in the magnetic field inside the core, driven by convective flows, could then force decadal changes in the Lorentz torque and generate zonal accelerations. We test this hypothesis by constructing a quasi-geostrophic model of magnetoconvection, with thermally driven flows perturbing a steady, imposed background magnetic field. We show that when the Alfvén number in our model is similar to that in Earth's fluid core, temporal fluctuations in the torque balance are dominated by the Lorentz torque, with the latter generating mean zonal accelerations. Our model reproduces both fast, free Alfvén waves and slow, forced accelerations, with ratios of relative strength and relative timescale similar to those inferred for the Earth's core. The temporal changes in the magnetic field which drive the time-varying Lorentz torque are produced by the underlying convective flows, shearing and advecting the magnetic field on a timescale associated with convective eddies. Our results support the hypothesis that temporal changes in the magnetic field deep inside Earth's fluid core drive the observed decadal zonal accelerations of cylindrical surfaces through the Lorentz torque.

Transport in zonal flows in analogous geophysical and plasma systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del-Castillo-Negrete, Diego

1999-11-01

Zonal flows occur naturally in the oceans and the atmosphere of planets. Important examples include the zonal flows in Jupiter, the stratospheric polar jet in Antarctica, and oceanic jets like the Gulf Stream. These zonal flows create transport barriers that have a crucial influence on mixing and confinement (e.g. the ozone depletion in Antarctica). Zonal flows also give rise to long-lasting vortices (e.g. the Jupiter red spot) by shear instability. Because of this, the formation and stability of zonal flows and their role on transport have been problems of great interest in geophysical fluid dynamics. On the other hand, zonal flows have also been observed in fusion plasmas and their impact on the reduction of transport has been widely recognized. Based on the well-known analogy between Rossby waves in quasigeostrophic flows and drift waves in magnetically confined plasmas, I will discuss the relevance to fusion plasmas of models and experiments recently developed in geophysical fluid dynamics. Also, the potential application of plasma physics ideas to geophysical flows will be discussed. The role of shear in the suppression of transport and the effect of zonal flows on the statistics of transport will be studied using simplified models. It will be shown how zonal flows induce large particle displacements that can be characterized as Lévy flights, and that the trapping effect of vortices combined with the zonal flows gives rise to anomalous diffusion and Lévy (non-Gaussian) statistics. The models will be compared with laboratory experiments and with atmospheric and oceanographic qualitative observations.

Shape, zonal winds and gravitational field of Jupiter: a fully self-consistent, multi-layered model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Gerald; Kong, Dali; Zhang, Keke

2016-10-01

We construct a three-dimensional, finite-element, fully self-consistent, multi-layered,non-spheroidal model of Jupiter consisting of an inner core, a metallic electrically conducting dynamo region and an outer molecular electrically insulating envelope. We assume that the Jovian zonal winds are on cylinders parallel to the rotation axis but, due to the effect of magnetic braking, are confined within the outer molecular envelope. Two related calculations are carried out. The first provides an accurate description of the shape and internal density profile of Jupiter; the effect of rotational distortion is not treated as a small perturbation on a spherically symmetric state. This calculation determines the density, size and shape of the inner core, the irregular shape of the 1-bar pressure level, and the internal structure of Jupiter; the full effect of rotational distortion, without the influence of the zonal winds, is accounted for. Our multi-layered model is able to produce the known mass, the known equatorial and polar radii, and the known zonal gravitational coefficient J2 of Jupiter within their error bars; it also yields the coefficients J4 and J6 within about 5% accuracy, and the core equatorial radius 0.09RJ containing 3.73 Earth masses.The second calculation determines the variation of the gravitational field caused solely by the effect of the zonal winds on the rotationally distorted non-spheroidal Jupiter. Four different cases, ranging from a deep wind profile to a very shallow profile, are considered and implications for accurate interpretation of the zonal gravitational coefficients expected from the Juno mission are discussed.

Theoretical and experimental zonal drift velocities of the ionospheric plasma bubbles over the Brazilian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arruda, Daniela C. S.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Abdu, M. A.; Castilho, Vivian M.; Takahashi, H.; Medeiros, A. F.; Buriti, R. A.

2006-01-01

This work presents equatorial ionospheric plasma bubble zonal drift velocity observations and their comparison with model calculations. The bubble zonal velocities were measured using airglow OI630 nm all-sky digital images and the model calculations were performed taking into account flux-tube integrated Pedersen conductivity and conductivity weighted neutral zonal winds. The digital images were obtained from an all-sky imaging system operated over the low-latitude station Cachoeira Paulista (Geogr. 22.5S, 45W, dip angle 31.5S) during the period from October 1998 to August 2000. Out of the 138 nights of imager observation, 29 nights with the presence of plasma bubbles are used in this study. These 29 nights correspond to geomagnetically rather quiet days (∑K P < 24+) and were grouped according to season. During the early night hours, the calculated zonal drift velocities were found to be larger than the experimental values. The best matching between the calculated and observed zonal velocities were seen to be for a few hours around midnight. The model calculation showed two humps around 20 LT and 24 LT that were not present in the data. Average decelerations obtained from linear regression between 20 LT and 24 LT were found to be: (a) Spring 1998, -8.61 ms -1 h -1; (b) Summer 1999, -0.59 ms -1 h -1; (c) Spring 1999, -11.72 ms -1 h -1; and (d) Summer 2000, -8.59 ms -1 h -1. Notice that Summer and Winter here correspond to southern hemisphere Summer and Winter, not northern hemisphere.

Future Effects of Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Zonal Asymmetries on Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, K.; Solomon, S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Fyfe, J. C.

2017-12-01

Stratospheric zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere have been shown to have significant influences on both stratospheric and tropospheric dynamics and climate. Accurate representation of stratospheric ozone in particular is important for realistic simulation of the polar vortex strength and temperature trends. This is therefore also important for stratospheric ozone change's effect on the troposphere, both through modulation of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and more localized climate. Here, we characterization the impact of future changes in Southern Hemisphere zonal asymmetry on tropospheric climate, including changes to future tropospheric temperature, and precipitation. The separate impacts of increasing GHGs and ozone recovery on the zonal asymmetric influence on the surface are also investigated. For this purpose, we use a variety of models, including Chemistry Climate Model Initiative simulations from the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)) and the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model (ACCESS-CCM). These models have interactive chemistry and can therefore more accurately represent the zonally asymmetric nature of the stratosphere. The CESM1(WACCM) and ACCESS-CCM models are also compared to simulations from the Canadian Can2ESM model and CESM-Large Ensemble Project (LENS) that have prescribed ozone to further investigate the importance of simulating stratospheric zonal asymmetry.

Measuring Zonal Transport Variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Using GRACE Ocean Bottom Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makowski, J.; Chambers, D. P.; Bonin, J. A.

2012-12-01

Previous studies have suggested that ocean bottom pressure (OBP) can be used to measure the transport variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Using OBP data from the JPL ECCO model and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), we examine the zonal transport variability of the ACC integrated between the major fronts between 2003-2010. The JPL ECCO data are used to determine average front positions for the time period studies, as well as where transport is mainly zonal. Statistical analysis will be conducted to determine the uncertainty of the GRACE observations using a simulated data set. We will also begin looking at low frequency changes and how coherent transport variability is from region to region of the ACC. Correlations with bottom pressure south of the ACC and the average basin transports will also be calculated to determine the probability of using bottom pressure south of the ACC as a means for describing the ACC dynamics and transport.

Multiple zonal jets and convective heat transport barriers in a quasi-geostrophic model of planetary cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guervilly, C.; Cardin, P.

2017-10-01

We study rapidly rotating Boussinesq convection driven by internal heating in a full sphere. We use a numerical model based on the quasi-geostrophic approximation for the velocity field, whereas the temperature field is 3-D. This approximation allows us to perform simulations for Ekman numbers down to 10-8, Prandtl numbers relevant for liquid metals (˜10-1) and Reynolds numbers up to 3 × 104. Persistent zonal flows composed of multiple jets form as a result of the mixing of potential vorticity. For the largest Rayleigh numbers computed, the zonal velocity is larger than the convective velocity despite the presence of boundary friction. The convective structures and the zonal jets widen when the thermal forcing increases. Prograde and retrograde zonal jets are dynamically different: in the prograde jets (which correspond to weak potential vorticity gradients) the convection transports heat efficiently and the mean temperature tends to be homogenized; by contrast, in the cores of the retrograde jets (which correspond to steep gradients of potential vorticity) the dynamics is dominated by the propagation of Rossby waves, resulting in the formation of steep mean temperature gradients and the dominance of conduction in the heat transfer process. Consequently, in quasi-geostrophic systems, the width of the retrograde zonal jets controls the efficiency of the heat transfer.

The role of zonal flows in disc gravito-turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanon, R.

2018-07-01

The work presented here focuses on the role of zonal flows in the self-sustenance of gravito-turbulence in accretion discs. The numerical analysis is conducted using a bespoke pseudo-spectral code in fully compressible, non-linear conditions. The disc in question, which is modelled using the shearing sheet approximation, is assumed to be self-gravitating, viscous, and thermally diffusive; a constant cooling time-scale is also considered. Zonal flows are found to emerge at the onset of gravito-turbulence and they remain closely linked to the turbulent state. A cycle of zonal flow formation and destruction is established, mediated by a slow mode instability (which allows zonal flows to grow) and a non-axisymmetric instability (which disrupts the zonal flow), which is found to repeat numerous times. It is in fact the disruptive action of the non-axisymmetric instability to form new leading and trailing shearing waves, allowing energy to be extracted from the background flow and ensuring the self-sustenance of the gravito-turbulent regime.

The role of zonal flows in disc gravito-turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanon, R.

2018-04-01

The work presented here focuses on the role of zonal flows in the self-sustenance of gravito-turbulence in accretion discs. The numerical analysis is conducted using a bespoke pseudo-spectral code in fully compressible, non-linear conditions. The disc in question, which is modelled using the shearing sheet approximation, is assumed to be self-gravitating, viscous, and thermally diffusive; a constant cooling timescale is also considered. Zonal flows are found to emerge at the onset of gravito-turbulence and they remain closely linked to the turbulent state. A cycle of zonal flow formation and destruction is established, mediated by a slow mode instability (which allows zonal flows to grow) and a non-axisymmetric instability (which disrupts the zonal flow), which is found to repeat numerous times. It is in fact the disruptive action of the non-axisymmetric instability to form new leading and trailing shearing waves, allowing energy to be extracted from the background flow and ensuring the self-sustenance of the gravito-turbulent regime.

A cyclostrophic transformed Eulerian zonal mean model for the middle atmosphere of slowly rotating planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. F.; Yao, K.; Taketa, C.; Zhang, X.; Liang, M. C.; Jiang, X.; Newman, C. E.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

2015-12-01

With the advance of modern computers, studies of planetary atmospheres have heavily relied on general circulation models (GCMs). Because these GCMs are usually very complicated, the simulations are sometimes difficult to understand. Here we develop a semi-analytic zonally averaged, cyclostrophic residual Eulerian model to illustrate how some of the large-scale structures of the middle atmospheric circulation can be explained qualitatively in terms of simple thermal (e.g. solar heating) and mechanical (the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence) forcings. This model is a generalization of that for fast rotating planets such as the Earth, where geostrophy dominates (Andrews and McIntyre 1987). The solution to this semi-analytic model consists of a set of modified Hough functions of the generalized Laplace's tidal equation with the cyclostrohpic terms. As examples, we apply this model to Titan and Venus. We show that the seasonal variations of the temperature and the circulation of these slowly-rotating planets can be well reproduced by adjusting only three parameters in the model: the Brunt-Väisälä bouyancy frequency, the Newtonian radiative cooling rate, and the Rayleigh friction damping rate. We will also discuss the application of this model to study the meridional transport of photochemically produced tracers that can be observed by space instruments.

A cyclostrophic transformed Eulerian zonal mean model for the middle atmosphere of slowly rotating planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, King-Fai; Yao, Kaixuan; Taketa, Cameron; Zhang, Xi; Liang, Mao-Chang; Jiang, Xun; Newman, Claire; Tung, Ka-Kit; Yung, Yuk L.

2016-04-01

With the advance of modern computers, studies of planetary atmospheres have heavily relied on general circulation models (GCMs). Because these GCMs are usually very complicated, the simulations are sometimes difficult to understand. Here we develop a semi-analytic zonally averaged, cyclostrophic residual Eulerian model to illustrate how some of the large-scale structures of the middle atmospheric circulation can be explained qualitatively in terms of simple thermal (e.g. solar heating) and mechanical (the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence) forcings. This model is a generalization of that for fast rotating planets such as the Earth, where geostrophy dominates (Andrews and McIntyre 1987). The solution to this semi-analytic model consists of a set of modified Hough functions of the generalized Laplace's tidal equation with the cyclostrohpic terms. As an example, we apply this model to Titan. We show that the seasonal variations of the temperature and the circulation of these slowly-rotating planets can be well reproduced by adjusting only three parameters in the model: the Brunt-Väisälä bouyancy frequency, the Newtonian radiative cooling rate, and the Rayleigh friction damping rate. We will also discuss an application of this model to study the meridional transport of photochemically produced tracers that can be observed by space instruments.

Numerical simulation on zonal disintegration in deep surrounding rock mass.

PubMed

Chen, Xuguang; Wang, Yuan; Mei, Yu; Zhang, Xin

2014-01-01

Zonal disintegration have been discovered in many underground tunnels with the increasing of embedded depth. The formation mechanism of such phenomenon is difficult to explain under the framework of traditional rock mechanics, and the fractured shape and forming conditions are unclear. The numerical simulation was carried out to research the generating condition and forming process of zonal disintegration. Via comparing the results with the geomechanical model test, the zonal disintegration phenomenon was confirmed and its mechanism is revealed. It is found to be the result of circular fracture which develops within surrounding rock mass under the high geostress. The fractured shape of zonal disintegration was determined, and the radii of the fractured zones were found to fulfill the relationship of geometric progression. The numerical results were in accordance with the model test findings. The mechanism of the zonal disintegration was revealed by theoretical analysis based on fracture mechanics. The fractured zones are reportedly circular and concentric to the cavern. Each fracture zone ruptured at the elastic-plastic boundary of the surrounding rocks and then coalesced into the circular form. The geometric progression ratio was found to be related to the mechanical parameters and the ground stress of the surrounding rocks.

Numerical Simulation on Zonal Disintegration in Deep Surrounding Rock Mass

PubMed Central

Chen, Xuguang; Wang, Yuan; Mei, Yu; Zhang, Xin

2014-01-01

Zonal disintegration have been discovered in many underground tunnels with the increasing of embedded depth. The formation mechanism of such phenomenon is difficult to explain under the framework of traditional rock mechanics, and the fractured shape and forming conditions are unclear. The numerical simulation was carried out to research the generating condition and forming process of zonal disintegration. Via comparing the results with the geomechanical model test, the zonal disintegration phenomenon was confirmed and its mechanism is revealed. It is found to be the result of circular fracture which develops within surrounding rock mass under the high geostress. The fractured shape of zonal disintegration was determined, and the radii of the fractured zones were found to fulfill the relationship of geometric progression. The numerical results were in accordance with the model test findings. The mechanism of the zonal disintegration was revealed by theoretical analysis based on fracture mechanics. The fractured zones are reportedly circular and concentric to the cavern. Each fracture zone ruptured at the elastic-plastic boundary of the surrounding rocks and then coalesced into the circular form. The geometric progression ratio was found to be related to the mechanical parameters and the ground stress of the surrounding rocks. PMID:24592166

Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential and their implications for mantle viscosity and Antarctic melting history due to the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi

2017-06-01

Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential based on the satellite laser ranging observations, {\\dot{J}_n}, contain important information about the Earth's deformation due to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and recent melting of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Here, we examine the GIA-induced {\\dot{J}_n}, \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} (2 ≤ n ≤ 6), derived from the available geopotential zonal secular rate and recent melting taken from the IPCC 2013 Report (AR5) to explore the possibility of additional information on the depth-dependent lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model inferred from the analyses of the \\dot{J}_2^{GIA} and relative sea level changes. The sensitivities of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} to lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model with a global averaged eustatic sea level (ESL) of ∼130 m indicate that the secular rates for n = 3 and 4 are mainly caused by the viscous response of the lower mantle to the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet regardless of GIA ice models adopted in this study. Also, the analyses of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} based on the available geopotential zonal secular rates indicate that permissible lower-mantle viscosity structure satisfying even zonal secular rates of n = 2, 4 and 6 is obtained for the GIA ice model with an Antarctic ESL component of ∼20 or ∼30 m, but there is no viscosity solution satisfying \\dot{J}_3^{GIA} and \\dot{J}_5^{GIA} values. Moreover, the inference model for the lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model from each odd zonal secular rate is distinctly different from that satisfying GIA-induced even zonal secular rate. The discrepancy between the inference models for the even and odd zonal secular rates may partly be attributed to uncertainties of the geopotential zonal secular rates for n > 2 and particularly those for odd zonal secular rates due to weakness in the orbital geometry. If this problem is overcome at least for the secular rates of n < 5, then the analyses of

Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Zonal Asymmetries on the Tropospheric Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, Olga; Waugh, Darryn; Li, Feng; Oman, Luke

2015-01-01

The depletion and recovery of Antarctic ozone plays a major role in changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric climate. Recent studies indicate that the lack of polar ozone asymmetries in chemistry climate models (CCM) leads to a weaker and warmer Antarctic vortex, and smaller trends in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet and the surface pressure. However, the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries is not well understood. In this study we report on a series of integrations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to further examine the effect of zonal asymmetries on the state of the stratosphere and troposphere. Integrations with the full, interactive stratospheric chemistry are compared against identical simulations using the same CCM except that (1) the monthly mean zonal mean stratospheric ozone from first simulation is prescribed and (2) ozone is relaxed to the monthly mean zonal mean ozone on a three day time scale. To analyze the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries, we examine trends and quantify the differences in temperatures, zonal wind and surface pressure among the integrations.

The role of zonal flows in the saturation of multi-scale gyrokinetic turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staebler, G. M.; Candy, J.; Howard, N. T.

2016-06-15

The 2D spectrum of the saturated electric potential from gyrokinetic turbulence simulations that include both ion and electron scales (multi-scale) in axisymmetric tokamak geometry is analyzed. The paradigm that the turbulence is saturated when the zonal (axisymmetic) ExB flow shearing rate competes with linear growth is shown to not apply to the electron scale turbulence. Instead, it is the mixing rate by the zonal ExB velocity spectrum with the turbulent distribution function that competes with linear growth. A model of this mechanism is shown to be able to capture the suppression of electron-scale turbulence by ion-scale turbulence and the thresholdmore » for the increase in electron scale turbulence when the ion-scale turbulence is reduced. The model computes the strength of the zonal flow velocity and the saturated potential spectrum from the linear growth rate spectrum. The model for the saturated electric potential spectrum is applied to a quasilinear transport model and shown to accurately reproduce the electron and ion energy fluxes of the non-linear gyrokinetic multi-scale simulations. The zonal flow mixing saturation model is also shown to reproduce the non-linear upshift in the critical temperature gradient caused by zonal flows in ion-scale gyrokinetic simulations.« less

The role of zonal flows in the saturation of multi-scale gyrokinetic turbulence

DOE PAGES

Staebler, Gary M.; Candy, John; Howard, Nathan T.; ...

2016-06-29

The 2D spectrum of the saturated electric potential from gyrokinetic turbulence simulations that include both ion and electron scales (multi-scale) in axisymmetric tokamak geometry is analyzed. The paradigm that the turbulence is saturated when the zonal (axisymmetic) ExB flow shearing rate competes with linear growth is shown to not apply to the electron scale turbulence. Instead, it is the mixing rate by the zonal ExB velocity spectrum with the turbulent distribution function that competes with linear growth. A model of this mechanism is shown to be able to capture the suppression of electron-scale turbulence by ion-scale turbulence and the thresholdmore » for the increase in electron scale turbulence when the ion-scale turbulence is reduced. The model computes the strength of the zonal flow velocity and the saturated potential spectrum from the linear growth rate spectrum. The model for the saturated electric potential spectrum is applied to a quasilinear transport model and shown to accurately reproduce the electron and ion energy fluxes of the non-linear gyrokinetic multi-scale simulations. Finally, the zonal flow mixing saturation model is also shown to reproduce the non-linear upshift in the critical temperature gradient caused by zonal flows in ionscale gyrokinetic simulations.« less

Zonal NePhRO scoring system: a superior renal tumor complexity classification model.

PubMed

Hakky, Tariq S; Baumgarten, Adam S; Allen, Bryan; Lin, Hui-Yi; Ercole, Cesar E; Sexton, Wade J; Spiess, Philippe E

2014-02-01

Since the advent of the first standardized renal tumor complexity system, many subsequent scoring systems have been introduced, many of which are complicated and can make it difficult to accurately measure data end points. In light of these limitations, we introduce the new zonal NePhRO scoring system. The zonal NePhRO score is based on 4 anatomical components that are assigned a score of 1, 2, or 3, and their sum is used to classify renal tumors. The zonal NePhRO scoring system is made up of the (Ne)arness to collecting system, (Ph)ysical location of the tumor in the kidney, (R)adius of the tumor, and (O)rganization of the tumor. In this retrospective study, we evaluated patients exhibiting clinical stage T1a or T1b who underwent open partial nephrectomy performed by 2 genitourinary surgeons. Each renal unit was assigned both a zonal NePhRO score and a RENAL (radius, exophytic/endophytic properties, nearness of tumor to the collecting system or sinus in millimeters, anterior/posterior, location relative to polar lines) score, and a blinded reviewer used the same preoperative imaging study to obtain both scores. Additional data points gathered included age, clamp time, complication rate, urine leak rate, intraoperative blood loss, and pathologic tumor size. One hundred sixty-six patients underwent open partial nephrectomy. There were 37 perioperative complications quantitated using the validated Clavien-Dindo system; their occurrence was predicted by the NePhRO score on both univariate and multivariate analyses (P = .0008). Clinical stage, intraoperative blood loss, and tumor diameter were all correlated with the zonal NePhRO score on univariate analysis only. The zonal NePhRO scoring system is a simpler tool that accurately predicts the surgical complexity of a renal lesion. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rethinking wave-kinetic theory applied to zonal flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Jeffrey

2017-10-01

Over the past two decades, a number of studies have employed a wave-kinetic theory to describe fluctuations interacting with zonal flows. Recent work has uncovered a defect in this wave-kinetic formulation: the system is dominated by the growth of (arbitrarily) small-scale zonal structures. Theoretical calculations of linear growth rates suggest, and nonlinear simulations confirm, that this system leads to the concentration of zonal flow energy in the smallest resolved scales, irrespective of the numerical resolution. This behavior results from the assumption that zonal flows are extremely long wavelength, leading to the neglect of key terms responsible for conservation of enstrophy. A corrected theory, CE2-GO, is presented; it is free of these errors yet preserves the intuitive phase-space mathematical structure. CE2-GO properly conserves enstrophy as well as energy, and yields accurate growth rates of zonal flow. Numerical simulations are shown to be well-behaved and not dependent on box size. The steady-state limit simplifies into an exact wave-kinetic form which offers the promise of deeper insight into the behavior of wavepackets. The CE2-GO theory takes its place in a hierarchy of models as the geometrical-optics reduction of the more complete cumulant-expansion statistical theory CE2. The new theory represents the minimal statistical description, enabling an intuitive phase-space formulation and an accurate description of turbulence-zonal flow dynamics. This work was supported by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship, a US DOE Fusion Energy Sciences Fellowship, and US DOE Contract Nos. DE-AC52-07NA27344 and DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Saturn’s gravitational field induced by its equatorially antisymmetric zonal winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Dali; Zhang, Keke; Schubert, Gerald; Anderson, John D.

2018-05-01

The cloud-level zonal winds of Saturn are marked by a substantial equatorially antisymmetric component with a speed of about 50ms‑1 which, if they are sufficiently deep, can produce measurable odd zonal gravitational coefficients ΔJ 2k+1, k = 1, 2, 3, 4. This study, based on solutions of the thermal-gravitational wind equation, provides a theoretical basis for interpreting the odd gravitational coefficients of Saturn in terms of its equatorially antisymmetric zonal flow. We adopt a Saturnian model comprising an ice-rock core, a metallic dynamo region and an outer molecular envelope. We use an equatorially antisymmetric zonal flow that is parameterized, confined in the molecular envelope and satisfies the solvability condition required for the thermal-gravitational wind equation. The structure and amplitude of the zonal flow at the cloud level are chosen to be consistent with observations of Saturn. We calculate the odd zonal gravitational coefficients ΔJ 2k+1, k = 1, 2, 3, 4 by regarding the depth of the equatorially antisymmetric winds as a parameter. It is found that ΔJ 3 is ‑4.197 × 10‑8 if the zonal winds extend about 13 000 km downward from the cloud tops while it is ‑0.765 × 10‑8 if the depth is about 4000 km. The depth/profile of the equatorially antisymmetric zonal winds can eventually be estimated when the high-precision measurements of the Cassini Grand Finale become available.

Longitudinal variability in Jupiter's zonal winds derived from multi-wavelength HST observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Perianne E.; Morales-Juberías, Raúl; Simon, Amy; Gaulme, Patrick; Wong, Michael H.; Cosentino, Richard G.

2018-06-01

Multi-wavelength Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of Jupiter from the Outer Planets Atmospheres Legacy (OPAL) and Wide Field Coverage for Juno (WFCJ) programs in 2015, 2016, and 2017 are used to derive wind profiles as a function of latitude and longitude. Wind profiles are typically zonally averaged to reduce measurement uncertainties. However, doing this destroys any variations of the zonal-component of winds in the longitudinal direction. Here, we present the results derived from using a "sliding-window" correlation method. This method adds longitudinal specificity, and allows for the detection of spatial variations in the zonal winds. Spatial variations are identified in two jets: 1 at 17 ° N, the location of a prominent westward jet, and the other at 7 ° S, the location of the chevrons. Temporal and spatial variations at the 24°N jet and the 5-μm hot spots are also examined.

On radiating baroclinic instability of zonally varying flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finley, Catherine A.; Nathan, Terrence R.

1993-01-01

A quasi-geostrophic, two-layer, beta-plane model is used to study the baroclinic instability characteristics of a zonally inhomogeneous flow. It is assumed that the disturbance varied slowly in the cross-stream direction, and the stability problem was formulated as a 1D initial value problem. Emphasis is placed on determining how the vertically averaged wind, local maximum in vertical wind shear, and length of the locally supercritical region combine to yield local instabilities. Analysis of the local disturbance energetics reveals that, for slowly varying basic states, the baroclinic energy conversion predominates within the locally unstable region. Using calculations of the basic state tendencies, it is shown that the net effect of the local instabilities is to redistribute energy from the baroclinic to the barotropic component of the basic state flow.

Eastern Tropical Pacific Precipitation Response to Zonal SPCZ events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán-Quesada, A. M.; Lintner, B. R.

2014-12-01

Extreme El Niño events and warming conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific have been linked to pronounced spatial displacements of the South Pacific Convergence Zone known as "zonal SPCZ" events.. Using a global dataset of Lagrangian back trajectories computed with the FLEXPART model for the period 1980-2013, comprehensive analysis of the 3D circulation characteristics associated with the SPCZ is undertaken. Ten days history of along-trajectory specific humidity, potential vorticity and temperature are reconstructed for zonal SPCZ events as well as other states,, with differences related to El Niño intensity and development stage as well as the state of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool. How zonal events influence precipitation over the Eastern Tropical Pacific is examined using back trajectories, reanalysis, TRMM precipitation, and additional satellite derived cloud information. It is found that SPCZ displacements are associated with enhanced convection over the Eastern Tropical Pacific in good agreement with prior work. The connection between intensification of precipitation over the eastern Tropical Pacific during zonal events and suppression of rainfall over the Maritime continent is also described.

On the tertiary instability formalism of zonal flows in magnetized plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, F.; Peeters, A. G.; Buchholz, R.; Grosshauser, S. R.; Seiferling, F.; Weikl, A.

2018-05-01

This paper investigates the so-called tertiary instabilities driven by the zonal flow in gyro-kinetic tokamak core turbulence. The Kelvin Helmholtz instability is first considered within a 2D fluid model and a threshold in the zonal flow wave vector kZF>kZF,c for instability is found. This critical scale is related to the breaking of the rotational symmetry by flux-surfaces, which is incorporated into the modified adiabatic electron response. The stability of undamped Rosenbluth-Hinton zonal flows is then investigated in gyro-kinetic simulations. Absolute instability, in the sense that the threshold zonal flow amplitude tends towards zero, is found above a zonal flow wave vector kZF,cρi≈1.3 ( ρi is the ion thermal Larmor radius), which is comparable to the 2D fluid results. Large scale zonal flows with kZFzonal temperature perturbations on the tertiary instability is examined. Although temperature perturbations favor instability, the realistic values of gradient-driven gyro-kinetic simulations still lie deeply in the stable parameter regime. Therefore, the relevance of the tertiary instability as a saturation mechanism to the zonal flow amplitude is questioned, as most of the zonal flow intensity is concentrated in modes satisfying kZF≪kZF,c as well as ωE×B≪ωE×B,c .

Climatology of mesopause region nocturnal temperature, zonal wind, and sodium density observed by sodium lidar over Hefei, China (32°N, 117°E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Ban, C.; Fang, X.; Li, J.; Wu, Z.; Xiong, J.; Feng, W.; Plane, J. M. C.

2017-12-01

The University of Science and Technology of China narrowband sodium temperature/wind lidar, located in Hefei, China (32°N, 117°E), was installed in November 2011 and have made routine nighttime measurements since January 2012. We obtained 154 nights ( 1400 hours) of vertical profiles of temperature, sodium density, and zonal wind, and 83 nights ( 800 hours) of vertical flux of gravity wave (GW) zonal momentum in the mesopause region (80-105 km) during the period of 2012 to 2016. In temperature, it is likely that the diurnal tide dominates below 100 km in spring, while the semidiurnal tide dominates above 100 km throughout the year. A clear semiannual variation in temperature is revealed near 90 km, likely related to the tropical mesospheric semiannual oscillation (MSAO). The variability of sodium density is positively correlated with temperature, suggesting that in addition to dynamics, the chemistry may also play an important role in the formation of sodium atoms. The observed sodium peak density is 1000 cm-3 higher than that simulated by the model. In zonal wind, the diurnal tide dominates in both spring and fall, while semidiurnal tide dominates in winter. The observed semiannual variation in zonal wind near 90 km is out-of-phase with that in temperature, consistent with tropical MSAO. The GW zonal momentum flux is mostly westward in fall and winter, anti-correlated with eastward zonal wind. The annual mean flux averaged over 87-97 km is -0.3 m2/s2 (westward), anti-correlated with eastward zonal wind of 10 m/s. The comparisons of lidar results with those observed by satellite, nearby radar, and simulated by model show generally good agreements.

A Simulation Model for Drift Resistive Ballooning Turbulence Examining the Influence of Self-consistent Zonal Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Bruce; Umansky, Maxim; Joseph, Ilon

2015-11-01

Progress is reported on including self-consistent zonal flows in simulations of drift-resistive ballooning turbulence using the BOUT + + framework. Previous published work addressed the simulation of L-mode edge turbulence in realistic single-null tokamak geometry using the BOUT three-dimensional fluid code that solves Braginskii-based fluid equations. The effects of imposed sheared ExB poloidal rotation were included, with a static radial electric field fitted to experimental data. In new work our goal is to include the self-consistent effects on the radial electric field driven by the microturbulence, which contributes to the sheared ExB poloidal rotation (zonal flow generation). We describe a model for including self-consistent zonal flows and an algorithm for maintaining underlying plasma profiles to enable the simulation of steady-state turbulence. We examine the role of Braginskii viscous forces in providing necessary dissipation when including axisymmetric perturbations. We also report on some of the numerical difficulties associated with including the axisymmetric component of the fluctuating fields. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL-ABS-674950).

Global atmospheric circulation statistics: Four year averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. F.; Geller, M. A.; Nash, E. R.; Gelman, M. E.

1987-01-01

Four year averages of the monthly mean global structure of the general circulation of the atmosphere are presented in the form of latitude-altitude, time-altitude, and time-latitude cross sections. The numerical values are given in tables. Basic parameters utilized include daily global maps of temperature and geopotential height for 18 pressure levels between 1000 and 0.4 mb for the period December 1, 1978 through November 30, 1982 supplied by NOAA/NMC. Geopotential heights and geostrophic winds are constructed using hydrostatic and geostrophic formulae. Meridional and vertical velocities are calculated using thermodynamic and continuity equations. Fields presented in this report are zonally averaged temperature, zonal, meridional, and vertical winds, and amplitude of the planetary waves in geopotential height with zonal wave numbers 1-3. The northward fluxes of sensible heat and eastward momentum by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition and Eliassen-Palm flux propagation vectors and divergences by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition are also given. Large interhemispheric differences and year-to-year variations are found to originate in the changes in the planetary wave activity.

Zonal structure and variability of the Western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Jaclyn N.; Langlais, Clothilde; Maes, Christophe

2014-06-01

The equatorial edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is operationally identified by one isotherm ranging between 28° and 29 °C, chosen to align with the interannual variability of strong zonal salinity gradients and the convergence of zonal ocean currents. The simulation of this edge is examined in 19 models from the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the historical period from 1950 to 2000. The dynamic warm pool edge (DWPE), where the zonal currents converge, is difficult to determine from limited observations and biased models. A new analysis technique is introduced where a proxy for DWPE is determined by the isotherm that most closely correlates with the movements of the strong salinity gradient. It can therefore be a different isotherm in each model. The DWPE is simulated much closer to observations than if a direct temperature-only comparison is made. Aspects of the DWPE remain difficult for coupled models to simulate including the mean longitude, the interannual excursions, and the zonal convergence of ocean currents. Some models have only very weak salinity gradients trapped to the western side of the basin making it difficult to even identify a DWPE. The model's DWPE are generally 1-2 °C cooler than observed. In line with theory, the magnitude of the zonal migrations of the DWPE are strongly related to the amplitudes of the Nino3.4 SST index. Nevertheless, a better simulation of the mean location of the DWPE does not necessarily improve the amplitude of a model's ENSO. It is also found that in a few models (CSIROMk3.6, inmcm and inmcm4-esm) the warm pool displacements result from a net heating or cooling rather than a zonal advection of warm water. The simulation of the DWPE has implications for ENSO dynamics when considering ENSO paradigms such as the delayed action oscillator mechanism, the Advective-Reflective oscillator, and the zonal-advective feedback. These are also discussed in the context

Variability in daily, zonal mean lower-stratospheric temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Drouilhet, S. James, Jr.

1994-01-01

Satellite data from the microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4, when carefully merged, provide daily zonal anomalies of lower-stratosphere temperature with a level of precision between 0.01 and 0.08 C per 2.5 deg latitude band. Global averages of these daily zonal anomalies reveal the prominent warming events due to volcanic aerosol in 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Mt. Pinatubo), which are on the order of 1 C. The quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) may be extracted from these zonal data by applying a spatial filter between 15 deg N and 15 deg S latitude, which resembles the meridional curvature. Previously published relationships between the QBO and the north polar stratospheric temperatures during northern winter are examined but were not found to be reproduced in the MSU4 data. Sudden stratospheric warmings in the north polar region are represented in the MSU4 data for latitudes poleward of 70 deg N. In the Southern Hemisphere, there appears to be a moderate relationship between total ozone concentration and MSU4 temperatures, though it has been less apparent in 1991 and 1992. In terms of empirical modes of variability, the authors find a strong tendency in EOF 1 (39.2% of the variance) for anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere polar regions to be counterbalanced by anomalies equatorward of 40 deg N and 40 deg S latitudes. In addition, most of the modes revealed significant power in the 15-20 day period band.

Zonal harmonic model of Saturn's magnetic field from Voyager 1 and 2 observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connerney, J. E. P.; Ness, N. F.; Acuna, M. H.

1982-01-01

An analysis of the magnetic field of Saturn is presented which takes into account both the Voyager 1 and 2 vector magnetic field observations. The analysis is based on the traditional spherical harmonic expansion of a scale potential to derive the magnetic field within 8 Saturn radii. A third-order zonal harmonic model fitted to Voyager 1 and 2 observations is found to be capable of predicting the magnetic field characteristics at one encounter based on those observed at another, unlike models including dipole and quadrupole terms only. The third-order model is noted to lead to significantly enhanced polar surface field intensities with respect to dipole models, and probably represents the axisymmetric part of a complex dynamo field.

Turbulence, transport, and zonal flows in the Madison symmetric torus reversed-field pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Z. R.; Pueschel, M. J.; Terry, P. W.; Hauff, T.

2017-12-01

The robustness and the effect of zonal flows in trapped electron mode (TEM) turbulence and Ion Temperature Gradient (ITG) turbulence in the reversed-field pinch (RFP) are investigated from numerical solutions of the gyrokinetic equations with and without magnetic external perturbations introduced to model tearing modes. For simulations without external magnetic field perturbations, zonal flows produce a much larger reduction of transport for the density-gradient-driven TEM turbulence than they do for the ITG turbulence. Zonal flows are studied in detail to understand the nature of their strong excitation in the RFP and to gain insight into the key differences between the TEM- and ITG-driven regimes. The zonal flow residuals are significantly larger in the RFP than in tokamak geometry due to the low safety factor. Collisionality is seen to play a significant role in the TEM zonal flow regulation through the different responses of the linear growth rate and the size of the Dimits shift to collisionality, while affecting the ITG only minimally. A secondary instability analysis reveals that the TEM turbulence drives zonal flows at a rate that is twice that of the ITG turbulence. In addition to interfering with zonal flows, the magnetic perturbations are found to obviate an energy scaling relation for fast particles.

Averaged model to study long-term dynamics of a probe about Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tresaco, Eva; Carvalho, Jean Paulo S.; Prado, Antonio F. B. A.; Elipe, Antonio; de Moraes, Rodolpho Vilhena

2018-02-01

This paper provides a method for finding initial conditions of frozen orbits for a probe around Mercury. Frozen orbits are those whose orbital elements remain constant on average. Thus, at the same point in each orbit, the satellite always passes at the same altitude. This is very interesting for scientific missions that require close inspection of any celestial body. The orbital dynamics of an artificial satellite about Mercury is governed by the potential attraction of the main body. Besides the Keplerian attraction, we consider the inhomogeneities of the potential of the central body. We include secondary terms of Mercury gravity field from J_2 up to J_6, and the tesseral harmonics \\overline{C}_{22} that is of the same magnitude than zonal J_2. In the case of science missions about Mercury, it is also important to consider third-body perturbation (Sun). Circular restricted three body problem can not be applied to Mercury-Sun system due to its non-negligible orbital eccentricity. Besides the harmonics coefficients of Mercury's gravitational potential, and the Sun gravitational perturbation, our average model also includes Solar acceleration pressure. This simplified model captures the majority of the dynamics of low and high orbits about Mercury. In order to capture the dominant characteristics of the dynamics, short-period terms of the system are removed applying a double-averaging technique. This algorithm is a two-fold process which firstly averages over the period of the satellite, and secondly averages with respect to the period of the third body. This simplified Hamiltonian model is introduced in the Lagrange Planetary equations. Thus, frozen orbits are characterized by a surface depending on three variables: the orbital semimajor axis, eccentricity and inclination. We find frozen orbits for an average altitude of 400 and 1000 km, which are the predicted values for the BepiColombo mission. Finally, the paper delves into the orbital stability of frozen

Comparison of analytical models for zonal flow generation in ion-temperature-gradient mode turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, J.; Miki, K.; Uzawa, K.

2006-11-30

During the past years the understanding of the multi scale interaction problems have increased significantly. However, at present there exists a flora of different analytical models for investigating multi scale interactions and hardly any specific comparisons have been performed among these models. In this work two different models for the generation of zonal flows from ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) background turbulence are discussed and compared. The methods used are the coherent mode coupling model and the wave kinetic equation model (WKE). It is shown that the two models give qualitatively the same results even though the assumption on the spectral difference ismore » used in the (WKE) approach.« less

Zonal flow generation and its feedback on turbulence production in drift wave turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pushkarev, Andrey V.; Bos, Wouter J. T.; Nazarenko, Sergey V.

2013-04-15

Plasma turbulence described by the Hasegawa-Wakatani equations is simulated numerically for different models and values of the adiabaticity parameter C. It is found that for low values of C turbulence remains isotropic, zonal flows are not generated and there is no suppression of the meridional drift waves and particle transport. For high values of C, turbulence evolves towards highly anisotropic states with a dominant contribution of the zonal sector to the kinetic energy. This anisotropic flow leads to a decrease of turbulence production in the meridional sector and limits the particle transport across the mean isopycnal surfaces. This behavior allowsmore » to consider the Hasegawa-Wakatani equations a minimal PDE model, which contains the drift-wave/zonal-flow feedback loop mechanism.« less

Disturbance zonal and vertical plasma drifts in the Peruvian sector during solar minimum phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, A. M.; Abdu, M. A.; Souza, J. R.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Batista, I. S.

2016-03-01

In the present work, we investigate the behavior of the equatorial F region zonal plasma drifts over the Peruvian region under magnetically disturbed conditions during two solar minimum epochs, one of them being the recent prolonged solar activity minimum. The study utilizes the vertical and zonal components of the plasma drifts measured by the Jicamarca (11.95°S; 76.87°W) incoherent scatter radar during two events that occurred on 10 April 1997 and 24 June 2008 and model calculation of the zonal drift in a realistic ionosphere simulated by the Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model-INPE. Two main points are focused: (1) the connection between electric fields and plasma drifts under prompt penetration electric field during a disturbed periods and (2) anomalous behavior of daytime zonal drift in the absence of any magnetic storm. A perfect anticorrelation between vertical and zonal drifts was observed during the night and in the initial and growth phases of the magnetic storm. For the first time, based on a realistic low-latitude ionosphere, we will show, on a detailed quantitative basis, that this anticorrelation is driven mainly by a vertical Hall electric field induced by the primary zonal electric field in the presence of an enhanced nighttime E region ionization. It is shown that an increase in the field line-integrated Hall-to-Pedersen conductivity ratio (∑H/∑P), which can arise from precipitation of energetic particles in the region of the South American Magnetic Anomaly, is capable of explaining the observed anticorrelation between the vertical and zonal plasma drifts. Evidence for the particle ionization is provided from the occurrence of anomalous sporadic E layers over the low-latitude station, Cachoeira Paulista (22.67°S; 44.9°W)—Brazil. It will also be shown that the zonal plasma drift reversal to eastward in the afternoon two hours earlier than its reference quiet time pattern is possibly caused by weakening of the zonal wind

Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

2017-02-01

UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

On the contribution of G20 and G30 in the Time-Averaged Paleomagnetic Field: First results from a new Giant Gaussian Process inverse modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khokhlov, A.; Hulot, G.; Johnson, C. L.

2013-12-01

It is well known that the geometry of the recent time-averaged paleomagnetic field (TAF) is very close to that of a geocentric axial dipole (GAD). However, many TAF models recovered from averaging lava flow paleomagnetic directional data (the most numerous and reliable of all data) suggest that significant additional terms, in particular quadrupolar (G20) and octupolar (G30) zonal terms, likely contribute. The traditional way in which most such TAF models are recovered uses an empirical estimate for paleosecular variation (PSV) that is subject to limitations imposed by the limited age information available for such data. In this presentation, we will report on a new way to recover the TAF, using an inverse modeling approach based on the so-called Giant Gaussian Process (GGP) description of the TAF and PSV, and various statistical tools we recently made available (see Khokhlov and Hulot, Geophysical Journal International, 2013, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggs118). First results based on high quality data published from the Time-Averaged Field Investigations project (see Johnson et al., G-cubed, 2008, doi:10.1029/2007GC001696) clearly show that both the G20 and G30 terms are very well constrained, and that optimum values fully consistent with the data can be found. These promising results lay the groundwork for use of the method with more extensive data sets, to search for possible additional non-zonal departures of the TAF from the GAD.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional

Radiative modelling by the zonal method and WSGG model in inhomogeneous axisymmetric cylindrical enclosure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méchi, Rachid; Farhat, Habib; Said, Rachid

2016-01-01

Nongray radiation calculations are carried out for a case problem available in the literature. The problem is a non-isothermal and inhomogeneous CO2-H2O- N2 gas mixture confined within an axisymmetric cylindrical furnace. The numerical procedure is based on the zonal method associated with the weighted sum of gray gases (WSGG) model. The effect of the wall emissivity on the heat flux losses is discussed. It is shown that this property affects strongly the furnace efficiency and that the most important heat fluxes are those leaving through the circumferential boundary. The numerical procedure adopted in this work is found to be effective and may be relied on to simulate coupled turbulent combustion-radiation in fired furnaces.

Nonlinear saturation of the slab ITG instability and zonal flow generation with fully kinetic ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miecnikowski, Matthew T.; Sturdevant, Benjamin J.; Chen, Yang; Parker, Scott E.

2018-05-01

Fully kinetic turbulence models are of interest for their potential to validate or replace gyrokinetic models in plasma regimes where the gyrokinetic expansion parameters are marginal. Here, we demonstrate fully kinetic ion capability by simulating the growth and nonlinear saturation of the ion-temperature-gradient instability in shearless slab geometry assuming adiabatic electrons and including zonal flow dynamics. The ion trajectories are integrated using the Lorentz force, and the cyclotron motion is fully resolved. Linear growth and nonlinear saturation characteristics show excellent agreement with analogous gyrokinetic simulations across a wide range of parameters. The fully kinetic simulation accurately reproduces the nonlinearly generated zonal flow. This work demonstrates nonlinear capability, resolution of weak gradient drive, and zonal flow physics, which are critical aspects of modeling plasma turbulence with full ion dynamics.

Zonal subdivision of marine sequences: achievements and discrepancies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladenkov, Yuri

2010-05-01

It was 150 years ago when a notion of zone was introduced into stratigraphy. By the present time zonal units with a duration of 0.3-3.0 M.y. in average have been established virtually for all systems and stages of the Phanerozoic. Their quantity reached 300. It is not a chance that zonal stratigraphy is considered to be one of the most significant achievement of the modern geology. There are different interpretations of essence and goals of zonal stratigraphy, techniques of separation of zones, and evaluation of zones as stratigraphic units. Particularly it is reflected in International Stratigraphic Guide (Murphy, Salvador, 1999), Russian Stratigraphic Code (Zhamoida, 2006), and a number of stratigraphic reports of the last years. It concerns different approaches to: (a) establishment of different types of zones (biostratigraphic zones and chronozones, oppel-zones and biohorizons, etc.); (b) assessment of spatial distribution of zones (global or provincial) and a role of sedimentological factor; (c) definition of zones as stratigraphic units (relationships with geostratigraphic units of the standard and regional scales). The latest publications show that because of the different interpretations of zones, authors should explain usage of certain type of zone (for example, when they use the terms "interval-zone" or "assemblage-zone", what limitations stem from application of datum-levels, and others). It is common opinion, that biostratigraphic zones used widely by paleontologists and stratigraphers cannot be a final goal of stratigraphy although they provide a base for solution of many important problems (definition of certain stratigraphic levels, correlation of different biofacies, and others). At the same time, the most important stratigraphic units are chronozones, which correspond to stages or phases of geological evolutio of basins and are marked by distinct fossil assemblages and other properties (magnetic and other characteristics) in the type sections

Frequency-dependent behavior of the barotropic and baroclinic modes of zonal jet variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheshadri, A.; Plumb, R. A.

2016-12-01

Stratosphere-troposphere interactions are frequently described in terms of the leading modes of variability, i.e. the annular modes. An idealized dynamical core model is used to explore the differences between the low- and high- frequency (periods greater and less than 30 days) behavior of the first two principal components of zonal mean zonal wind and eddy kinetic energy, i.e., the barotropic/baroclinic annular modes of variability of the extratropical circulation. The modes show similar spatial characteristics in the different frequency ranges considered, however the ranking of the modes switches in some cases from one range to the other. There is some cancelation in the signatures of eddy heat flux and eddy kinetic energy in the leading low-pass and high-pass filtered zonal wind mode, partly explaining their small signature in the total. At low frequencies, the first zonal wind mode describes latitudinal shifts of both the midlatitude jet and its associated storm tracks, and the persistence of zonal wind anomalies appears to be sustained primarily by a baroclinic, rather than a barotropic, feedback. On shorter time scales, the behavior is more complicated and transient.

Transonic Navier-Stokes wing solutions using a zonal approach. Part 2: High angle-of-attack simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaderjian, N. M.

1986-01-01

A computer code is under development whereby the thin-layer Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are to be applied to realistic fighter-aircraft configurations. This transonic Navier-Stokes code (TNS) utilizes a zonal approach in order to treat complex geometries and satisfy in-core computer memory constraints. The zonal approach has been applied to isolated wing geometries in order to facilitate code development. Part 1 of this paper addresses the TNS finite-difference algorithm, zonal methodology, and code validation with experimental data. Part 2 of this paper addresses some numerical issues such as code robustness, efficiency, and accuracy at high angles of attack. Special free-stream-preserving metrics proved an effective way to treat H-mesh singularities over a large range of severe flow conditions, including strong leading-edge flow gradients, massive shock-induced separation, and stall. Furthermore, lift and drag coefficients have been computed for a wing up through CLmax. Numerical oil flow patterns and particle trajectories are presented both for subcritical and transonic flow. These flow simulations are rich with complex separated flow physics and demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the zonal approach.

Statistical properties of Charney-Hasegawa-Mima zonal flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Johan, E-mail: anderson.johan@gmail.com; Botha, G. J. J.

2015-05-15

A theoretical interpretation of numerically generated probability density functions (PDFs) of intermittent plasma transport events in unforced zonal flows is provided within the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima (CHM) model. The governing equation is solved numerically with various prescribed density gradients that are designed to produce different configurations of parallel and anti-parallel streams. Long-lasting vortices form whose flow is governed by the zonal streams. It is found that the numerically generated PDFs can be matched with analytical predictions of PDFs based on the instanton method by removing the autocorrelations from the time series. In many instances, the statistics generated by the CHM dynamics relaxesmore » to Gaussian distributions for both the electrostatic and vorticity perturbations, whereas in areas with strong nonlinear interactions it is found that the PDFs are exponentially distributed.« less

Atmospheric Response to Zonal Variations in Midlatitude SST: Transient and Stationary Eddies and Their Feedback(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inatsu, Masaru; Mukougawa, Hitoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping

2003-10-01

Midwinter storm track response to zonal variations in midlatitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model under aquaplanet and perpetual-January conditions. Zonal wavenumber-1 SST variations with a meridionally confined structure are placed at various latitudes. Having these SST variations centered at 30°N leads to a zonally localized storm track, while the storm track becomes nearly zonally uniform when the same SST forcing is moved farther north at 40° and 50°N. Large (small) baroclinic energy conversion north of the warm (cold) SST anomaly near the axis of the storm track (near 40°N) is responsible for the large (small) storm growth. The equatorward transfer of eddy kinetic energy by the ageostrophic motion and the mechanical damping are important to diminish the storm track activity in the zonal direction.Significant stationary eddies form in the upper troposphere, with a ridge (trough) northeast of the warm (cold) SST anomaly at 30°N. Heat and vorticity budget analyses indicate that zonally localized condensational heating in the storm track is the major cause for these stationary eddies, which in turn exert a positive feedback to maintain the localized storm track by strengthening the vertical shear near the surface. These results indicate an active role of synoptic eddies in inducing deep, tropospheric-scale response to midlatitude SST variations. Finally, the application of the model results to the real atmosphere is discussed.

Triple Cascade Behavior in Quasigeostrophic and Drift Turbulence and Generation of Zonal Jets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nazarenko, Sergey; Quinn, Brenda

2009-09-11

We study quasigeostrophic (QG) and plasma drift turbulence within the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima (CHM) model. We focus on the zonostrophy, an extra invariant in the CHM model, and on its role in the formation of zonal jets. We use a generalized Fjoertoft argument for the energy, enstrophy, and zonostrophy and show that they cascade anisotropically into nonintersecting sectors in k space with the energy cascading towards large zonal scales. Using direct numerical simulations of the CHM equation, we show that zonostrophy is well conserved, and the three invariants cascade as predicted by the Fjoertoft argument.

On the fast zonal transport of the STS-121 space shuttle exhaust plume in the lower thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Jia; Liu, Han-Li; Meier, R. R.; Chang, Loren; Gu, Sheng-Yang; Russell, James, III

2013-03-01

Meier et al. (2011) reported rapid eastward transport of the STS-121 space shuttle (launch: July 4, 2006) main engine plume in the lower thermosphere, observed in hydrogen Lyman α images by the GUVI instrument onboard the TIMED satellite. In order to study the mechanism of the rapid zonal transport, diagnostic tracer calculations are performed using winds from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) simulation of July, 2006. It is found that the strong eastward jet at heights of 100-110 km, where the exhaust plume was deposited, results in a persistent eastward tracer motion with an average velocity of 45 m/s. This is generally consistent with, though faster than, the prevailing eastward shuttle plume movement with daily mean velocity of 30 m/s deduced from the STS-121 GUVI observation. The quasi-two-day wave (QTDW) was not included in the numerical simulation because it was found not to be large. Its absence, however, might be partially responsible for insufficient meridional transport to move the tracers away from the fast jet in the simulation. The current study and our model results from Yue and Liu (2010) explain two very different shuttle plume transport scenarios (STS-121 and STS-107 (launch: January 16, 2003), respectively): we conclude that lower thermospheric dynamics is sufficient to account for both very fast zonal motion (zonal jet in the case of STS-121) and very fast meridional motion to polar regions (large QTDW in the case of STS-107).

The climatology of low-latitude ionospheric densities and zonal drifts from IMAGE-FUV.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immel, T. J.; Sagawa, E.; Frey, H. U.; Mende, S. B.; Patel, J.

2004-12-01

The IMAGE satellite was the first dedicated to magnetospheric imaging, but has also provided numerous images of the nightside ionosphere with its Far-Ultraviolet (FUV) spectrographic imager. Nightside emissions of O I at 135.6-nm originating away from the aurora are due to recombination of ionospheric O+, and vary in intensity with (O+)2. IMAGE-FUV, operating in a highly elliptical orbit with apogee at middle latitudes and >7 Re altitude, measures this emission globally with 100-km resolution. During each 14.5 hour orbit, IMAGE-FUV is able to monitor nightside ionospheric densities for up to 6-7 hours. Hundreds of low-latitude ionospheric bubbles, their development and drift speed, and a variety of other dynamical variations in brightness and morphology of the equatorial anomalies have been observed during this mission. Furthermore, the average global distribution of low-latitude ionospheric plasma densities can be determined in 3 days. Imaging data collected from February through June of 2002 are used to compile a dataset containing a variety of parameters (e.g., latitude and brightness of peak plasma density, zonal bubble drift speed) which can be drawn from for climatological studies. Recent results indicate that the average ground speed of low-latitude zonal plasma drifts vary with longitude by up to 50%, and that a periodic variation in ionospheric densities with longitude suggests the influence of a lower-thermospheric non-migrating tide with wave number = 4 on ionospheric densities. An excellent correlation between zonal drift speed and the magnetic storm index Dst is also found.

Dynamic Stall Computations Using a Zonal Navier-Stokes Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL lotMonterey ,California CD Lj STATF ,-S THESIS DYNAMIC STALL CALCULATIONS USING A ZONAL.-,_ % 0 NVETESISDE by Jack H...Conroyd, Jr. June 1988 Thesis Co-advisors: M.F. Platzer Lawrence W. Carr Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedDOTIC , ~~~~~~~~ELECT...OINT %, Master s Thesis OM To June 212 6 SLP;’LEENTARY NOTATION ri The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the

Predictability of Zonal Means During Boreal Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max J.; Pegion, Philip J.; Kistler, Michael A.; Kumar, Arun; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Zonal wavefront reconstruction in quadrilateral geometry for phase measuring deflectometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Lei; Xue, Junpeng; Gao, Bo

2017-06-14

There are wide applications for zonal reconstruction methods in slope-based metrology due to its good capability of reconstructing the local details on surface profile. It was noticed in the literature that large reconstruction errors occur when using zonal reconstruction methods designed for rectangular geometry to process slopes in a quadrilateral geometry, which is a more general geometry with phase measuring deflectometry. In this paper, we present a new idea for the zonal methods for quadrilateral geometry. Instead of employing the intermediate slopes to set up height-slope equations, we consider the height increment as a more general connector to establish themore » height-slope relations for least-squares regression. The classical zonal methods and interpolation-assisted zonal methods are compared with our proposal. Results of both simulation and experiment demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed idea. In implementation, the modification on the classical zonal methods is addressed. Finally, the new methods preserve many good aspects of the classical ones, such as the ability to handle a large incomplete slope dataset in an arbitrary aperture, and the low computational complexity comparable with the classical zonal method. Of course, the accuracy of the new methods is much higher when integrating the slopes in quadrilateral geometry.« less

Laboratory modeling of multiple zonal jets on the polar beta-plane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afanasyev, Y.

2011-12-01

Zonal jets observed in the oceans and atmospheres of planets are studied in a laboratory rotating tank. The fluid layer in the rotating tank has parabolic free surface and dynamically simulates the polar beta-plane where the Coriolis parameter varies quadratically with distance from the pole. Velocity and surface elevation fields are measured with an optical altimetry method (Afanasyev et al., Exps Fluids 2009). The flows are induced by a localized buoyancy source along radial direction. The baroclinic flow consisting of a field of eddies propagates away from the source due West and forms zonal jets (Fig. 1). Barotropic jets ahead of the baroclinic flow are formed by radiation of beta plumes. Inside the baroclinic flow the jets flow between the chains of eddies. Experimental evidence of so-called noodles (baroclinic instability mode with motions in the radial, North-South direction) theoretically predicted by Berloff et al. (JFM, JPO 2009) was found in our experiments. Beta plume radiation mechanism and the mechanism associated with the instability of noodles are likely to contribute to formation of jets in the baroclinic flow.

A new paradigm for predicting zonal-mean climate and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Roe, G.; Donohoe, A.; Siler, N.; Markle, B. R.; Liu, X.; Feldl, N.; Battisti, D. S.; Frierson, D. M.

2016-12-01

How will the pole-to-equator temperature gradient, or large-scale patterns of precipitation, change under global warming? Answering such questions typically involves numerical simulations with comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs) that represent the complexities of climate forcing, radiative feedbacks, and atmosphere and ocean dynamics. Yet, our understanding of these predictions hinges on our ability to explain them through the lens of simple models and physical theories. Here we present evidence that zonal-mean climate, and its changes, can be understood in terms of a moist energy balance model that represents atmospheric heat transport as a simple diffusion of latent and sensible heat (as a down-gradient transport of moist static energy, with a diffusivity coefficient that is nearly constant with latitude). We show that the theoretical underpinnings of this model derive from the principle of maximum entropy production; that its predictions are empirically supported by atmospheric reanalyses; and that it successfully predicts the behavior of a hierarchy of climate models - from a gray radiation aquaplanet moist GCM, to comprehensive GCMs participating in CMIP5. As an example of the power of this paradigm, we show that, given only patterns of local radiative feedbacks and climate forcing, the moist energy balance model accurately predicts the evolution of zonal-mean temperature and atmospheric heat transport as simulated by the CMIP5 ensemble. These results suggest that, despite all of its dynamical complexity, the atmosphere essentially responds to energy imbalances by simply diffusing latent and sensible heat down-gradient; this principle appears to explain zonal-mean climate and its changes under global warming.

Averaging Models: Parameters Estimation with the R-Average Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vidotto, G.; Massidda, D.; Noventa, S.

2010-01-01

The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982), can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto &…

Gravitational Anomalies Caused by Zonal Winds in Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, G.; Kong, D.; Zhang, K.

2012-12-01

We present an accurate three-dimensional non-spherical numerical calculation of the gravitational anomalies caused by zonal winds in Jupiter. The calculation is based on a three-dimensional finite element method and accounts for the full effect of significant departure from spherical geometry caused by rapid rotation. Since the speeds of Jupiter's zonal winds are much smaller than that of its rigid-body rotation, our numerical calculation is carried out in two stages. First, we compute the non-spherical distributions of density and pressure at the equilibrium within Jupiter via a hybrid inverse approach by determining an a priori unknown coefficient in the polytropic equation of state that results in a match to the observed shape of Jupiter. Second, by assuming that Jupiter's zonal winds extend throughout the interior along cylinders parallel to the rotation axis, we compute gravitational anomalies produced by the wind-related density anomalies, providing an upper bound to the gravitational anomalies caused by the Jovian zonal winds.

Characteristics and Mechanisms of Zonal Oscillation of Western Pacific Subtropical High in Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, W.; Ren, X.; Hu, H.

2017-12-01

The zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) influences the weather and climate over East Asia significantly. This study investigates the features and mechanisms of the zonal oscillation of the WPSH during summer on subseasonal time scales. The zonal oscillation index of the WPSH is defined by normalized subseasonal geopotential height anomaly at 500hPa averaged over the WPSH's western edge (110° - 140°E, 10° - 30°N). The index shows a predominant oscillation with a period of 10-40 days. Large positive index indicates a strong anticyclonic anomaly over East Asia and its coastal region south of 30°N at both 850hPa and 500hPa. The WPSH stretches more westward accompanied by warmer SST anomalies beneath the western edge of the WPSH. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is seen over the Yangtze-Huaihe river basin and below-normal precipitation over the south of the Yangtze River. Negative index suggests a more eastward position of WPSH. The anomalies in circulation and SST for negative index are almost the mirror image of those for the positive index. In early summer, the zonal shift of the WPSH is affected by both the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern and the Silk road pattern (SRP). The positive (negative) phase of the EAP pattern is characterized by a low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, indicating the western extension (eastward retreat) of the WPSH. Comparing with the EAP pattern, the SRP forms an upper-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in mid-latitudes of East Asia, and then leads to the westward (eastward) movement of the WPSH. In late summer, the zonal shift of the WPSH is mainly affected by the EAP pattern, because the EAP pattern in late summer is stronger than that in early summer. The zonal shift of the WPSH is also influenced by the subseasonal air-sea interaction locally. During the early stage of WPSH's westward stretch, the local SST anomaly in late summer is

Vaporization and Zonal Mixing in Performance Modeling of Advanced LOX-Methane Rockets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, George J., Jr.; Stiegemeier, Benjamin R.

2013-01-01

Initial modeling of LOX-Methane reaction control (RCE) 100 lbf thrusters and larger, 5500 lbf thrusters with the TDK/VIPER code has shown good agreement with sea-level and altitude test data. However, the vaporization and zonal mixing upstream of the compressible flow stage of the models leveraged empirical trends to match the sea-level data. This was necessary in part because the codes are designed primarily to handle the compressible part of the flow (i.e. contraction through expansion) and in part because there was limited data on the thrusters themselves on which to base a rigorous model. A more rigorous model has been developed which includes detailed vaporization trends based on element type and geometry, radial variations in mixture ratio within each of the "zones" associated with elements and not just between zones of different element types, and, to the extent possible, updated kinetic rates. The Spray Combustion Analysis Program (SCAP) was leveraged to support assumptions in the vaporization trends. Data of both thrusters is revisited and the model maintains a good predictive capability while addressing some of the major limitations of the previous version.

Model averaging techniques for quantifying conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Singh, Abhishek; Mishra, Srikanta; Ruskauff, Greg

2010-01-01

In recent years a growing understanding has emerged regarding the need to expand the modeling paradigm to include conceptual model uncertainty for groundwater models. Conceptual model uncertainty is typically addressed by formulating alternative model conceptualizations and assessing their relative likelihoods using statistical model averaging approaches. Several model averaging techniques and likelihood measures have been proposed in the recent literature for this purpose with two broad categories--Monte Carlo-based techniques such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation or GLUE (Beven and Binley 1992) and criterion-based techniques that use metrics such as the Bayesian and Kashyap Information Criteria (e.g., the Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging or MLBMA approach proposed by Neuman 2003) and Akaike Information Criterion-based model averaging (AICMA) (Poeter and Anderson 2005). These different techniques can often lead to significantly different relative model weights and ranks because of differences in the underlying statistical assumptions about the nature of model uncertainty. This paper provides a comparative assessment of the four model averaging techniques (GLUE, MLBMA with KIC, MLBMA with BIC, and AIC-based model averaging) mentioned above for the purpose of quantifying the impacts of model uncertainty on groundwater model predictions. Pros and cons of each model averaging technique are examined from a practitioner's perspective using two groundwater modeling case studies. Recommendations are provided regarding the use of these techniques in groundwater modeling practice.

Unusual behavior of quiet-time zonal and vertical plasma drift velocities over Jicamarca during the recent extended solar minimum of 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Ângela M.; Abdu, Mangalathayil A.; Souza, Jonas R.; Batista, Inez S.; Sobral, José H. A.

2017-11-01

The influence of the recent deep and prolonged solar minimum on the daytime zonal and vertical plasma drift velocities during quiet time is investigated in this work. Analyzing the data obtained from incoherent scatter radar from Jicamarca (11.95° S, 76.87° W) we observe an anomalous behavior of the zonal plasma drift during June 2008 characterized by lower than usual daytime westward drift and its early afternoon reversal to eastward. As a case study the zonal drift observed on 24 June 2008 is modeled using a realistic low-latitude ionosphere simulated by the Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model-INPE (SUPIM-INPE). The results show that an anomalously low zonal wind was mainly responsible for the observed anomalous behavior in the zonal drift. A comparative study of the vertical plasma drifts obtained from magnetometer data for some periods of maximum (2000-2002) and minimum solar activity (1998, 2008, 2010) phases reveal a considerable decrease on the E-region conductivity and the dynamo electric field during 2008. However, we believe that the contribution of these characteristics to the unusual behavior of the zonal plasma drift is significantly smaller than that arising from the anomalously low zonal wind. The SUPIM-INPE result of the critical frequency of the F layer (foF2) over Jicamarca suggested a lower radiation flux than that predicted by solar irradiance model (SOLAR2000) for June 2008.

MPIRUN: A Portable Loader for Multidisciplinary and Multi-Zonal Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fineberg, Samuel A.; Woodrow, Thomas S. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Multidisciplinary and multi-zonal applications are an important class of applications in the area of Computational Aerosciences. In these codes, two or more distinct parallel programs or copies of a single program are utilized to model a single problem. To support such applications, it is common to use a programming model where a program is divided into several single program multiple data stream (SPMD) applications, each of which solves the equations for a single physical discipline or grid zone. These SPMD applications are then bound together to form a single multidisciplinary or multi-zonal program in which the constituent parts communicate via point-to-point message passing routines. One method for implementing the message passing portion of these codes is with the new Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard. Unfortunately, this standard only specifies the message passing portion of an application, but does not specify any portable mechanisms for loading an application. MPIRUN was developed to provide a portable means for loading MPI programs, and was specifically targeted at multidisciplinary and multi-zonal applications. Programs using MPIRUN for loading and MPI for message passing are then portable between all machines supported by MPIRUN. MPIRUN is currently implemented for the Intel iPSC/860, TMC CM5, IBM SP-1 and SP-2, Intel Paragon, and workstation clusters. Further, MPIRUN is designed to be simple enough to port easily to any system supporting MPI.

Rossby waves and two-dimensional turbulence in a large-scale zonal jet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Theodor G.

1987-01-01

Homogeneous barotropic beta-plane turbulence is investigated, taking into account the effects of spatial inhomogeneity in the form of a zonal shear flows. Attention is given to the case of zonal flows that are barotropically stable and of larger scale than the resulting transient eddy field. Numerical simulations reveal that large-scale zonal flows alter the picture of classical beta-plane turbulence. It is found that the disturbance field penetrates to the largest scales of motion, that the larger disturbance scales show a tendency to meridional rather than zonal anisotropy, and that the initial spectral transfer rate away from an isotropic intermediate-scale source is enhanced by the shear-induced transfer associated with straining by the zonal flow.

A Zonal Climate Model for the 1-D Mars Evolution Code: Explaining Meridiani Planum.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, C. V.; McKay, C. P.; Zahnle, K. J.

2005-12-01

Recent MER Opportunity observations suggest there existed an extensive body of shallow water in the present Meridiani Planum during the late Noachian [1]. Observations of roughly contemporaneous valley networks show little net erosion [2]. Hypsometric analysis [3] finds that martian drainage basins are similar to terrestrial drainage basins in very arid regions. The immaturity of martian drainage basins suggests they were formed by infrequent fluvial action. If similar fluvial discharges are responsible for the laminations in the salt-bearing outcrops of Meridiani Planum, their explanation may require a climate model based on surface thermal equilibrium with diurnally averaged temperatures greater than freezing. In the context of Mars' chaotic obliquity, invoking a moderately thick atmosphere with seasonal insolation patterns may uncover the conditions under which the outcrops formed. We compounded a 1-D model of the evolution of Mars' inventories of CO2 over its lifetime called the Mars Evolution Code (MEC) [4]. We are assembling a zonal climate model that includes meridional heat transport, heat conduction to/from the regolith, latent heat deposition, and an albedo distribution based on the depositional patterns of ices. Since water vapor is an important greenhouse gas, and whose ice affects the albedo, we must install a full hydrological cycle. This requires a thermal model of the regolith to model diffusion of water vapor to/from a permafrost layer. Our model carries obliquity and eccentricity distributions consistent with Laskar et al. [5], so we will be able to model the movement of the ice cap with changes in obliquity. The climate model will be used to investigate the conditions under which ponded water could have occurred in the late Noachian, thus supplying a constraint on the free inventory of CO2 at that time. Our evolution code can then investigate Hesperian and Amazonian climates. The model could also be used to understand evidence of recent climate

Implementing Multidisciplinary and Multi-Zonal Applications Using MPI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fineberg, Samuel A.

1995-01-01

Multidisciplinary and multi-zonal applications are an important class of applications in the area of Computational Aerosciences. In these codes, two or more distinct parallel programs or copies of a single program are utilized to model a single problem. To support such applications, it is common to use a programming model where a program is divided into several single program multiple data stream (SPMD) applications, each of which solves the equations for a single physical discipline or grid zone. These SPMD applications are then bound together to form a single multidisciplinary or multi-zonal program in which the constituent parts communicate via point-to-point message passing routines. Unfortunately, simple message passing models, like Intel's NX library, only allow point-to-point and global communication within a single system-defined partition. This makes implementation of these applications quite difficult, if not impossible. In this report it is shown that the new Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard is a viable portable library for implementing the message passing portion of multidisciplinary applications. Further, with the extension of a portable loader, fully portable multidisciplinary application programs can be developed. Finally, the performance of MPI is compared to that of some native message passing libraries. This comparison shows that MPI can be implemented to deliver performance commensurate with native message libraries.

Troposphere-stratosphere (surface-55 km) monthly general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere-four year averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. F.; Geller, M. A.; Olson, J. G.; Gelman, M. E.

1984-01-01

This report presents four year averages of monthly mean Northern Hemisphere general circulation statistics for the period from 1 December 1978 through 30 November 1982. Computations start with daily maps of temperature for 18 pressure levels between 1000 and 0.4 mb that were supplied by NOAA/NMC. Geopotential height and geostrophic wind are constructed using the hydrostatic and geostrophic formulae. Fields presented in this report are zonally averaged temperature, mean zonal wind, and amplitude and phase of the planetary waves in geopotential height with zonal wavenumbers 1-3. The northward fluxes of heat and eastward momentum by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition and Eliassen-Palm flux propagation vectors and divergences by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition are also given. Large annual and interannual variations are found in each quantity especially in the stratosphere in accordance with the changes in the planetary wave activity. The results are shown both in graphic and tabular form.

Numerical simulation of phenomenon on zonal disintegration in deep underground mining in case of unsupported roadway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Fengshan; Wu, Xinli; Li, Xia; Zhu, Dekang

2018-02-01

Zonal disintegration phenomenon was found in deep mining roadway surrounding rock. It seriously affects the safety of mining and underground engineering and it may lead to the occurrence of natural disasters. in deep mining roadway surrounding rock, tectonic stress in deep mining roadway rock mass, horizontal stress is much greater than the vertical stress, When the direction of maximum principal stress is parallel to the axis of the roadway in deep mining, this is the main reasons for Zonal disintegration phenomenon. Using ABAQUS software to numerical simulation of the three-dimensional model of roadway rupture formation process systematically, and the study shows that when The Direction of maximum main stress in deep underground mining is along the roadway axial direction, Zonal disintegration phenomenon in deep underground mining is successfully reproduced by our numerical simulation..numerical simulation shows that using ABAQUA simulation can reproduce Zonal disintegration phenomenon and the formation process of damage of surrounding rock can be reproduced. which have important engineering practical significance.

Contribution of zonal harmonics to gravitational moment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roithmayr, Carlos M.

1991-01-01

It is presently demonstrated that a recursive vector-dyadic expression for the contribution of a zonal harmonic of degree n to the gravitational moment about a small body's center-of-mass is obtainable with a procedure that involves twice differentiating a celestial body's gravitational potential with respect to a vector. The recursive property proceeds from taking advantage of a recursion relation for Legendre polynomials which appear in the gravitational potential. The contribution of the zonal harmonic of degree 2 is consistent with the gravitational moment exerted by an oblate spheroid.

Contribution of zonal harmonics to gravitational moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roithmayr, Carlos M.

1991-02-01

It is presently demonstrated that a recursive vector-dyadic expression for the contribution of a zonal harmonic of degree n to the gravitational moment about a small body's center-of-mass is obtainable with a procedure that involves twice differentiating a celestial body's gravitational potential with respect to a vector. The recursive property proceeds from taking advantage of a recursion relation for Legendre polynomials which appear in the gravitational potential. The contribution of the zonal harmonic of degree 2 is consistent with the gravitational moment exerted by an oblate spheroid.

The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.

2016-02-01

In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

Time-varying zonal asymmetries in stratospheric nitrous oxide and methane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, H.; Stanford, J. L.

1993-01-01

Previously analyses of Stratospheric And Mesospheric Sounder (SAMS) data of atmospheric constituent gases have dealt almost exclusively with zonal means (and mostly monthly means), owing perhaps to concern over data quality. The purpose of this note is to show that, with care, time-dependent zonally-asymmetric features may be recovered from the SAMS nitrous oxide and methane data. As an example, we demonstrate the existence of zonal wave-1 constituent perturbations with periods of a few weeks in the middle and upper stratosphere. When the perturbations are normalized by the constituent zonal-mean mixing ratio to compensate for the slowly varying (in both space and time) background concentration of constituents, wavepacket-like features are found over all latitudes and seasons in the three-year SAMS record. One specific low-latitude case discussed had features which appear to be consistent with constituent oscillations induced by episodic equatorial Kelvin waves. Further studies are needed to better identify the nature of the plethora of observed wave-like phenomena.

Changes in Jupiter's Zonal Wind Profile Preceding and During the Juno Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tollefson, Joshua; Wong, Michael H.; de Pater, Imke; Simon, Amy A.; Orton, Glenn S.; Rogers, John H.; Atreya, Sushil K.; Cosentino, Richard G.; Januszewski, William; Morales-Juberias, Raul;

Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences.

PubMed

Cade, Brian S

2015-09-01

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the t

Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2015-01-01

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the

Zonal Flows and Long-lived Axisymmetric Pressure Bumps in Magnetorotational Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansen, A.; Youdin, A.; Klahr, H.

2009-06-01

We study the behavior of magnetorotational turbulence in shearing box simulations with a radial and azimuthal extent up to 10 scale heights. Maxwell and Reynolds stresses are found to increase by more than a factor of 2 when increasing the box size beyond two scale heights in the radial direction. Further increase of the box size has little or no effect on the statistical properties of the turbulence. An inverse cascade excites magnetic field structures at the largest scales of the box. The corresponding 10% variation in the Maxwell stress launches a zonal flow of alternating sub- and super-Keplerian velocity. This, in turn, generates a banded density structure in geostrophic balance between pressure and Coriolis forces. We present a simplified model for the appearance of zonal flows, in which stochastic forcing by the magnetic tension on short timescales creates zonal flow structures with lifetimes of several tens of orbits. We experiment with various improved shearing box algorithms to reduce the numerical diffusivity introduced by the supersonic shear flow. While a standard finite difference advection scheme shows signs of a suppression of turbulent activity near the edges of the box, this problem is eliminated by a new method where the Keplerian shear advection is advanced in time by interpolation in Fourier space.

Properties of model-averaged BMDLs: a study of model averaging in dichotomous response risk estimation.

PubMed

Wheeler, Matthew W; Bailer, A John

2007-06-01

Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accounting for model uncertainty in benchmark dose (BMD) estimation. The technique has been used to average BMD dose estimates derived from dichotomous dose-response experiments, microbial dose-response experiments, as well as observational epidemiological studies. While MA is a promising tool for the risk assessor, a previous study suggested that the simple strategy of averaging individual models' BMD lower limits did not yield interval estimators that met nominal coverage levels in certain situations, and this performance was very sensitive to the underlying model space chosen. We present a different, more computationally intensive, approach in which the BMD is estimated using the average dose-response model and the corresponding benchmark dose lower bound (BMDL) is computed by bootstrapping. This method is illustrated with TiO(2) dose-response rat lung cancer data, and then systematically studied through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The results of this study suggest that the MA-BMD, estimated using this technique, performs better, in terms of bias and coverage, than the previous MA methodology. Further, the MA-BMDL achieves nominal coverage in most cases, and is superior to picking the "best fitting model" when estimating the benchmark dose. Although these results show utility of MA for benchmark dose risk estimation, they continue to highlight the importance of choosing an adequate model space as well as proper model fit diagnostics.

Using a zonal atmospheric model to test biogeophysical feedback-caused drought in the subtropical desert

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Potter, G.L.; MacCracken, M.C.; Ellsaesser, H.W.

1975-08-01

Recent interest in the cause of the sub-Sahara drought has initiated several investigations implying possible anthropogenic origin through increased surface albedo due to reduced plant cover from overgrazing. Results of two integrations of the Zonal Atmospheric Model (ZAM2) are presented, differing only in the prescribed surface albedo for the subtropical land masses of the northern hemisphere. These studies were initiated to determine whether an albedo change alone can bring about such dramatic impacts on local precipitation rates as have been implied. Preliminary results indicate that an albedo change can affect the climate, not just at the latitude of change butmore » also at other latitudes due to various atmospheric feedback mechanisms. (auth)« less

Dynamics of zonal shear collapse with hydrodynamic electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajjar, R. J.; Diamond, P. H.; Malkov, M. A.

2018-06-01

This paper presents a theory for the collapse of the edge zonal shear layer, as observed at the density limit at low β. This paper investigates the scaling of the transport and mean profiles with the adiabaticity parameter α, with special emphasizes on fluxes relevant to zonal flow (ZF) generation. We show that the adiabaticity parameter characterizes the strength of production of zonal flows and so determines the state of turbulence. A 1D reduced model that self-consistently describes the spatiotemporal evolution of the mean density n ¯ , the azimuthal flow v¯ y , and the turbulent potential enstrophy ɛ=⟨(n˜ -∇2ϕ˜ ) 2/2 ⟩ —related to fluctuation intensity—is presented. Quasi-linear analysis determines how the particle flux Γn and vorticity flux Π=-χy∇2vy+Πre s scale with α, in both hydrodynamic and adiabatic regimes. As the plasma response passes from adiabatic (α > 1) to hydrodynamic (α < 1), the particle flux Γn is enhanced and the turbulent viscosity χy increases. However, the residual flux Πres—which drives the flow—drops with α. As a result, the mean vorticity gradient ∇2v¯ y=Πre s/χy —representative of the strength of the shear—also drops. The shear layer then collapses and turbulence is enhanced. The collapse is due to a decrease in ZF production, not an increase in damping. A physical picture for the onset of collapse is presented. The findings of this paper are used to motivate an explanation of the phenomenology of low β density limit evolution. A change from adiabatic ( α=kz2vth 2/(|ω|νei)>1 ) to hydrodynamic (α < 1) electron dynamics is associated with the density limit.

Effects of finite poloidal gyroradius, shaping, and collisions on the zonal flow residuala)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Yong; Catto, Peter J.; Dorland, William

2007-05-01

Zonal flow helps reduce and regulate the turbulent transport level in tokamaks. Rosenbluth and Hinton have shown that zonal flow damps to a nonvanishing residual level in collisionless [M. Rosenbluth and F. Hinton, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 724 (1998)] and collisional [F. Hinton and M. Rosenbluth, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 41, A653 (1999)] banana regime plasmas. Recent zonal flow advances are summarized including the evaluation of the effects on the zonal flow residual by plasma cross-section shaping, shorter wavelengths including those less than an electron gyroradius, and arbitrary ion collisionality relative to the zonal low frequency. In addition to giving a brief summary of these new developments, the analytic results are compared with GS2 numerical simulations [M. Kotschenreuther, G. Rewoldt, and W. Tang, Comput. Phys. Commun. 88, 128 (1991)] to demonstrate their value as benchmarks for turbulence codes.

Mapping potential vorticity dynamics on saturn: Zonal mean circulation from Cassini and Voyager data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, P. L.; Conrath, B. J.; Fletcher, L. N.; Gierasch, P. J.; Simon-Miller, A. A.; Zuchowski, L. C.

2009-12-01

Maps of Ertel potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces (IPV) and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) are well established in dynamical meteorology as powerful sources of insight into dynamical processes involving 'balanced' flow (i.e. geostrophic or similar). Here we derive maps of zonal mean IPV and QGPV in Saturn's upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by making use of a combination of velocity measurements, derived from the combined tracking of cloud features in images from the Voyager and Cassini missions, and thermal measurements from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument. IPV and QGPV are mapped and compared for the entire globe between latitudes 89∘S-82∘N. As on Jupiter, profiles of zonally averaged PV show evidence for a step-like "stair-case" pattern suggestive of local PV homogenisation, separated by strong PV gradients in association with eastward jets. The northward gradient of PV (IPV or QGPV) is found to change sign in several places in each hemisphere, however, even when baroclinic contributions are taken into account. The stability criterion with respect to Arnol'd's second stability theorem may be violated near the peaks of westward jets. Visible, near-IR and thermal-IR Cassini observations have shown that these regions exhibit many prominent, large-scale eddies and waves, e.g. including 'storm alley'. This suggests the possibility that at least some of these features originate from instabilities of the background zonal flow.

Drift-wave turbulence and zonal flow generation.

PubMed

Balescu, R

2003-10-01

Drift-wave turbulence in a plasma is analyzed on the basis of the wave Liouville equation, describing the evolution of the distribution function of wave packets (quasiparticles) characterized by position x and wave vector k. A closed kinetic equation is derived for the ensemble-averaged part of this function by the methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. It has the form of a non-Markovian advection-diffusion equation describing coupled diffusion processes in x and k spaces. General forms of the diffusion coefficients are obtained in terms of Lagrangian velocity correlations. The latter are calculated in the decorrelation trajectory approximation, a method recently developed for an accurate measure of the important trapping phenomena of particles in the rugged electrostatic potential. The analysis of individual decorrelation trajectories provides an illustration of the fragmentation of drift-wave structures in the radial direction and the generation of long-wavelength structures in the poloidal direction that are identified as zonal flows.

Using box models to quantify zonal distributions and emissions of halocarbons in the background atmosphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elkins, J. W.; Nance, J. D.; Dutton, G. S.; Montzka, S. A.; Hall, B. D.; Miller, B.; Butler, J. H.; Mondeel, D. J.; Siso, C.; Moore, F. L.; Hintsa, E. J.; Wofsy, S. C.; Rigby, M. L.

2015-12-01

The Halocarbons and other Atmospheric Trace Species (HATS) of NOAA's Global Monitoring Division started measurements of the major chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide in 1977 from flask samples collected at five remote sites around the world. Our program has expanded to over 40 compounds at twelve sites, which includes six in situ instruments and twelve flask sites. The Montreal Protocol for Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its subsequent amendments has helped to decrease the concentrations of many of the ozone depleting compounds in the atmosphere. Our goal is to provide zonal emission estimates for these trace gases from multi-box models and their estimated atmospheric lifetimes in this presentation and make the emission values available on our web site. We plan to use our airborne measurements to calibrate the exchange times between the boxes for 5-box and 12-box models using sulfur hexafluoride where emissions are better understood.

Deep Zonal Flow and Time Variation of Jupiter’s Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hao; Stevenson, David J.

2017-10-01

All four giant planets in the Solar System feature zonal flows on the order of 100 m/s in the cloud deck, and large-scale intrinsic magnetic fields on the order of 1 Gauss near the surface. The vertical structure of the zonal flows remains obscure. The end-member scenarios are shallow flows confined in the radiative atmosphere and deep flows throughout the entire planet. The electrical conductivity increases rapidly yet smoothly as a function of depth inside Jupiter and Saturn. Deep zonal flows will advect the non-axisymmetric component of the magnetic field, at depth with even modest electrical conductivity, and create time variations in the magnetic field.The observed time variations of the geomagnetic field has been used to derive surface flows of the Earth’s outer core. The same principle applies to Jupiter, however, the connection between the time variation of the magnetic field (dB/dt) and deep zonal flow (Uphi) at Jupiter is not well understood due to strong radial variation of electrical conductivity. Here we perform a quantitative analysis of the connection between dB/dt and Uphi for Jupiter adopting realistic interior electrical conductivity profile, taking the likely presence of alkali metals into account. This provides a tool to translate expected measurement of the time variation of Jupiter’s magnetic field to deep zonal flows. We show that the current upper limit on the dipole drift rate of Jupiter (3 degrees per 20 years) is compatible with 10 m/s zonal flows with < 500 km vertical scale height below 0.972 Rj. We further demonstrate that fast drift of resolved magnetic features (e.g. magnetic spots) at Jupiter is a possibility.

Generation of zonal flows by electrostatic drift waves in electron-positron-ion plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaladze, T. D.; I. Vekua Institute of Applied Mathematics, Tbilisi State University, 2 University Str., 0186 Tbilisi; Shad, M.

2010-02-15

Generation of large-scale zonal flows by comparatively small-scale electrostatic drift waves in electron-positron-ion plasmas is considered. The generation mechanism is based on the parametric excitation of convective cells by finite amplitude drift waves having arbitrary wavelengths (as compared with the ion Larmor radius of plasma ions at the plasma electron temperature). Temperature inhomogeneity of electrons and positrons is taken into account assuming ions to be cold. To describe the generation of zonal flow generalized Hasegawa-Mima equation containing both vector and two scalar (of different nature) nonlinearities is used. A set of coupled equations describing the nonlinear interaction of drift wavesmore » and zonal flows is deduced. Explicit expressions for the maximum growth rate as well as for the optimal spatial dimensions of the zonal flows are obtained. Enriched possibilities of zonal flow generation with different growth rates are revealed. The present theory can be used for interpretations of drift wave observations in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas.« less

Zonally Asymmetric Ozone and the Morphology of the Planetary Waveguide

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-15

sections for the 271 troposphere , J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2600-2616. 272 Eyring, V., et al. (2007), Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone ...GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/, JULY 15, 2011 Zonally asymmetric ozone and the morphology of the 1 planetary waveguide...that zonally asymmetric 6 ozone (ZAO) profoundly changes the morphology of the Northern Hemisphere planetary 7 waveguide (PWG). ZAO causes the PWG to

Monthly Surface Air Temperature Time Series Area-Averaged Over the 30-Degree Latitudinal Belts of the Globe

DOE Data Explorer

Lugina, K. M. [Department of Geography, St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia; Groisman, P. Ya. [National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina USA); Vinnikov, K. Ya. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland (USA); Koknaeva, V. V. [State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia; Speranskaya, N. A. [State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

2006-01-01

The mean monthly and annual values of surface air temperature compiled by Lugina et al. have been taken mainly from the World Weather Records, Monthly Climatic Data for the World, and Meteorological Data for Individual Years over the Northern Hemisphere Excluding the USSR. These published records were supplemented with information from different national publications. In the original archive, after removal of station records believed to be nonhomogeneous or biased, 301 and 265 stations were used to determine the mean temperature for the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. The new version of the station temperature archive (used for evaluation of the zonally-averaged temperatures) was created in 1995. The change to the archive was required because data from some stations became unavailable for analyses in the 1990s. During this process, special care was taken to secure homogeneity of zonally averaged time series. When a station (or a group of stations) stopped reporting, a "new" station (or group of stations) was selected in the same region, and its data for the past 50 years were collected and added to the archive. The processing (area-averaging) was organized in such a way that each time series from a new station spans the reference period (1951-1975) and the years thereafter. It was determined that the addition of the new stations had essentially no effect on the zonally-averaged values for the pre-1990 period.

[Altitude-belt zonality of wood vegetation within mountainous regions of the Sayan Mountains: a model of ecological second-order phase transitions ].

PubMed

Sukhovol'skiĭ, V G; Ovchinnikova, T M; Baboĭ, S D

2014-01-01

As a description of altitude-belt zonality of wood vegetation, a model of ecological second-order transitions is proposed. Objects of the study have been chosen to be forest cenoses of the northern slope of Kulumyss Ridge (the Sayan Mauntains), while the results are comprised by the altitude profiles of wood vegetation. An ecological phase transition can be considered as the transition of cenoses at different altitudes from the state of presence of certain tree species within the studied territory to the state of their absence. By analogy with the physical model of second-order, phase transitions the order parameter is introduced (i.e., the area portion occupied by a single tree species at the certain altitude) as well as the control variable (i.e., the altitude of the wood vegetation belt). As the formal relation between them, an analog of the Landau's equation for phase transitions in physical systems is obtained. It is shown that the model is in a good accordance with the empirical data. Thus, the model can be used for estimation of upper and lower boundaries of altitude belts for individual tree species (like birch, aspen, Siberian fir, Siberian pine) as well as the breadth of their ecological niches with regard to altitude. The model includes also the parameters that describe numerically the interactions between different species of wood vegetation. The approach versatility allows to simplify description and modeling of wood vegetation altitude zonality, and enables assessment of vegetation cenoses response to climatic changes.

Nonstationary Gravity Wave Forcing of the Stratospheric Zonal Mean Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, M. J.; Rosenlof, K. H.

1996-01-01

The role of gravity wave forcing in the zonal mean circulation of the stratosphere is discussed. Starting from some very simple assumptions about the momentum flux spectrum of nonstationary (non-zero phase speed) waves at forcing levels in the troposphere, a linear model is used to calculate wave propagation through climatological zonal mean winds at solstice seasons. As the wave amplitudes exceed their stable limits, a saturation criterion is imposed to account for nonlinear wave breakdown effects, and the resulting vertical gradient in the wave momentum flux is then used to estimate the mean flow forcing per unit mass. Evidence from global, assimilated data sets are used to constrain these forcing estimates. The results suggest the gravity-wave-driven force is accelerative (has the same sign as the mean wind) throughout most of the stratosphere above 20 km. The sense of the gravity wave forcing in the stratosphere is thus opposite to that in the mesosphere, where gravity wave drag is widely believed to play a principal role in decelerating the mesospheric jets. The forcing estimates are further compared to existing gravity wave parameterizations for the same climatological zonal mean conditions. Substantial disagreement is evident in the stratosphere, and we discuss the reasons for the disagreement. The results suggest limits on typical gravity wave amplitudes near source levels in the troposphere at solstice seasons. The gravity wave forcing in the stratosphere appears to have a substantial effect on lower stratospheric temperatures during southern hemisphere summer and thus may be relevant to climate.

Wave kinetics of drift-wave turbulence and zonal flows beyond the ray approximation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Hongxuan; Zhou, Yao; Ruiz, D. E.

Inhomogeneous drift-wave turbulence can be modeled as an effective plasma where drift waves act as quantumlike particles and the zonal-flow velocity serves as a collective field through which they interact. This effective plasma can be described by a Wigner-Moyal equation (WME), which generalizes the quasilinear wave-kinetic equation (WKE) to the full-wave regime, i.e., resolves the wavelength scale. Unlike waves governed by manifestly quantumlike equations, whose WMEs can be borrowed from quantum mechanics and are commonly known, drift waves have Hamiltonians very different from those of conventional quantum particles. This causes unusual phase-space dynamics that is typically not captured by themore » WKE. We demonstrate how to correctly model this dynamics with the WME instead. Specifically, we report full-wave phase-space simulations of the zonal-flow formation (zonostrophic instability), deterioration (tertiary instability), and the so-called predator-prey oscillations. We also show how the WME facilitates analysis of these phenomena, namely, (i) we show that full-wave effects critically affect the zonostrophic instability, particularly its nonlinear stage and saturation; (ii) we derive the tertiary-instability growth rate; and (iii) we demonstrate that, with full-wave effects retained, the predator-prey oscillations do not require zonal-flow collisional damping, contrary to previous studies. In conclusion, we also show how the famous Rayleigh-Kuo criterion, which has been missing in wave-kinetic theories of drift-wave turbulence, emerges from the WME.« less

Wave kinetics of drift-wave turbulence and zonal flows beyond the ray approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Hongxuan; Zhou, Yao; Ruiz, D. E.; Dodin, I. Y.

2018-05-01

Inhomogeneous drift-wave turbulence can be modeled as an effective plasma where drift waves act as quantumlike particles and the zonal-flow velocity serves as a collective field through which they interact. This effective plasma can be described by a Wigner-Moyal equation (WME), which generalizes the quasilinear wave-kinetic equation (WKE) to the full-wave regime, i.e., resolves the wavelength scale. Unlike waves governed by manifestly quantumlike equations, whose WMEs can be borrowed from quantum mechanics and are commonly known, drift waves have Hamiltonians very different from those of conventional quantum particles. This causes unusual phase-space dynamics that is typically not captured by the WKE. We demonstrate how to correctly model this dynamics with the WME instead. Specifically, we report full-wave phase-space simulations of the zonal-flow formation (zonostrophic instability), deterioration (tertiary instability), and the so-called predator-prey oscillations. We also show how the WME facilitates analysis of these phenomena, namely, (i) we show that full-wave effects critically affect the zonostrophic instability, particularly its nonlinear stage and saturation; (ii) we derive the tertiary-instability growth rate; and (iii) we demonstrate that, with full-wave effects retained, the predator-prey oscillations do not require zonal-flow collisional damping, contrary to previous studies. We also show how the famous Rayleigh-Kuo criterion, which has been missing in wave-kinetic theories of drift-wave turbulence, emerges from the WME.

Wave kinetics of drift-wave turbulence and zonal flows beyond the ray approximation

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Hongxuan; Zhou, Yao; Ruiz, D. E.; ...

2018-05-29

Inhomogeneous drift-wave turbulence can be modeled as an effective plasma where drift waves act as quantumlike particles and the zonal-flow velocity serves as a collective field through which they interact. This effective plasma can be described by a Wigner-Moyal equation (WME), which generalizes the quasilinear wave-kinetic equation (WKE) to the full-wave regime, i.e., resolves the wavelength scale. Unlike waves governed by manifestly quantumlike equations, whose WMEs can be borrowed from quantum mechanics and are commonly known, drift waves have Hamiltonians very different from those of conventional quantum particles. This causes unusual phase-space dynamics that is typically not captured by themore » WKE. We demonstrate how to correctly model this dynamics with the WME instead. Specifically, we report full-wave phase-space simulations of the zonal-flow formation (zonostrophic instability), deterioration (tertiary instability), and the so-called predator-prey oscillations. We also show how the WME facilitates analysis of these phenomena, namely, (i) we show that full-wave effects critically affect the zonostrophic instability, particularly its nonlinear stage and saturation; (ii) we derive the tertiary-instability growth rate; and (iii) we demonstrate that, with full-wave effects retained, the predator-prey oscillations do not require zonal-flow collisional damping, contrary to previous studies. In conclusion, we also show how the famous Rayleigh-Kuo criterion, which has been missing in wave-kinetic theories of drift-wave turbulence, emerges from the WME.« less

Jupiter: New estimates of mean zonal flow at the cloud level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Sanjay S.

1986-01-01

In order to reexamine the magnitude differences of the Jovian atmosphere's jets, as determined by Voyager 1 and 2 images, a novel approach is used to ascertain the zonal mean east-west component of motion. This technique is based on digital pattern matching, and is applied on pairs of mapped images to yield a profile of the mean zonal component that reproduces the exact locations of the easterly and westerly jets between + and 60 deg latitude. Results were obtained for all of the Voyager 1 and 2 cylindrical mosaics; the correlation coefficient between Voyagers 1 and 2 in mean zonal flow between + and - 60 deg latitude, determined from violet filter mosaics, is 0.998.

Theory of Fine-scale Zonal Flow Generation From Trapped Electron Mode Turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu Wang and T.S. Hahm

Most existing zonal flow generation theory has been developed with a usual assumption of qrρθ¡ << 1 (qr is the radial wave number of zonal flow, and ρθ¡ is the ion poloidal gyrora- dius). However, recent nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of trapped electron mode (TEM) turbulence exhibit a relatively short radial scale of the zonal flows with qrρθ¡ ~ 1 [Z. Lin et al., IAEA-CN/TH/P2-8 (2006); D. Ernst et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 055906 (2009)]. This work reports an extension of zonal flow growth calculation to this short wavelength regime via the wave kinetics approach. A generalized expression for the polarizationmore » shielding for arbitrary radial wavelength [Lu Wang and T.S. Hahm, to appear in Phys. Plasmas (2009)] which extends the Rosenbluth-Hinton formula in the long wavelength limit is applied.« less

The role of zonal flows in reactive fluid closures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jan, WEILAND

2018-07-01

We will give an overview of results obtained by our reactive fluid model. It is characterised as a fluid model where all moments with sources in the experiment are kept. Furthermore, full account is taken for the highest moments appearing in unexpanded denominators also including full toroidicity. It has been demonstrated that the strength of zonal flows is dramatically larger in reactive fluid closures than in those which involve dissipation. This gives a direct connection between the fluid closure and the level of excitation of turbulence. This is because zonal flows are needed to absorb the inverse cascade in quasi 2D turbulence. This also explains the similarity in structure of the transport coefficients in our model with a reactive closure in the energy equation and models which have a reactive closure because of zero ion temperature such as the Hasegawa–Wakatani model. Our exact reactive closure unifies several well-known features of tokamak experiments such as the L–H transition, internal transport barriers and the nonlinear Dimits upshift of the critical gradient for onset of transport. It also gives transport of the same level as that in nonlinear gyrokinetic codes. Since these include the kinetic resonance this confirms the validity of the thermodynamic properties of our model. Furthermore, we can show that while a strongly nonlinear model is needed in kinetic theory a quasilinear model is sufficient in the fluid description. Thus our quasilinear fluid model will be adequate for treating all relevant problems in bulk transport. This is finally confirmed by the reproduction by the model of the experimental power scaling of the confinement time τ E ∼ P ‑2/3. This confirms the validity of our reactive fluid model. This also gives credibility to our ITER simulations including the H-mode barrier. A new result is here, that alpha heating strongly reduces the slope of the H-mode barrier. This should significantly reduce the effects of ELM’s.

Low-latitude zonal and vertical ion drifts seen by DE 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coley, W. R.; Heelis, R. A.

1989-01-01

Horizontal and vertical ion drift data from the DE 2 spacecraft have been used to determine average zonal and vertical plasma flow (electric field) characteristics in the +/- 26-deg dip latitude region during a time of high solar activity. The 'average data' local time profile for an apex height bin centered at 400 km indicates westward plasma flow from 0600 to 1900 solar local time ((SLT) with a maximum westward velocity of 80 m/s in the early afternoon. There is a sharp change to eastward flow at approximately 1900 hours with an early evening peak of 170 m/s. A secondary nighttime maximum exists at 0430 SLT preceeding the reversal to westward flow. This profile is in good agreement with Jicamarca, Peru, radar measurements made under similar solar maximum conditions. Haramonic analysis indicates a net superrotation which is strongest at lower apex altitudes. The diurnal term is dominant, but higher order terms through the quatradiurnal are significant.

GRAVOTURBULENT PLANETESIMAL FORMATION: THE POSITIVE EFFECT OF LONG-LIVED ZONAL FLOWS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dittrich, K.; Klahr, H.; Johansen, A., E-mail: dittrich@mpia.de

2013-02-15

Recent numerical simulations have shown long-lived axisymmetric sub- and super-Keplerian flows in protoplanetary disks. These zonal flows are found in local as well as global simulations of disks unstable to the magnetorotational instability. This paper covers our study of the strength and lifetime of zonal flows and the resulting long-lived gas over- and underdensities as functions of the azimuthal and radial size of the local shearing box. We further investigate dust particle concentrations without feedback on the gas and without self-gravity. The strength and lifetime of zonal flows increase with the radial extent of the simulation box, but decrease withmore » the azimuthal box size. Our simulations support earlier results that zonal flows have a natural radial length scale of 5-7 gas pressure scale heights. This is the first study that combines three-dimensional MHD simulations of zonal flows and dust particles feeling the gas pressure. The pressure bumps trap particles with St = 1 very efficiently. We show that St = 0.1 particles (of some centimeters in size if at 5 AU in a minimum mass solar nebula) reach a hundred-fold higher density than initially. This opens the path for particles of St = 0.1 and dust-to-gas ratio of 0.01 or for particles of St {>=} 0.5 and dust-to-gas ratio 10{sup -4} to still reach densities that potentially trigger the streaming instability and thus gravoturbulent formation of planetesimals.« less

Computation of transonic separated wing flows using an Euler/Navier-Stokes zonal approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaynak, Uenver; Holst, Terry L.; Cantwell, Brian J.

1986-01-01

A computer program called Transonic Navier Stokes (TNS) has been developed which solves the Euler/Navier-Stokes equations around wings using a zonal grid approach. In the present zonal scheme, the physical domain of interest is divided into several subdomains called zones and the governing equations are solved interactively. The advantages of the Zonal Grid approach are as follows: (1) the grid for any subdomain can be generated easily; (2) grids can be, in a sense, adapted to the solution; (3) different equation sets can be used in different zones; and, (4) this approach allows for a convenient data base organization scheme. Using this code, separated flows on a NACA 0012 section wing and on the NASA Ames WING C have been computed. First, the effects of turbulence and artificial dissipation models incorporated into the code are assessed by comparing the TNS results with other CFD codes and experiments. Then a series of flow cases is described where data are available. The computed results, including cases with shock-induced separation, are in good agreement with experimental data. Finally, some futuristic cases are presented to demonstrate the abilities of the code for massively separated cases which do not have experimental data.

Numerical experiments with a general circulation model concerning the stratospheric distribution of ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurzeja, R. J.; Haggard, K. V.; Grose, W. L.

1981-01-01

Three experiments have been performed using a three-dimensional, spectral quasi-geostrophic model in order to investigate the sensitivity of ozone transport to tropospheric orographic and thermal effects and to the zonal wind distribution. In the first experiment, the ozone distribution averaged over the last 30 days of a 60 day transport simulation was determined; in the second experiment, the transport simulation was repeated, but nonzonal orographic and thermal forcing was omitted; and in the final experiment, the simulation was conducted with the intensity and position of the stratospheric jets altered by addition of a Newtonian cooling term to the zonal-mean diabatic heating rate. Results of the three experiments are summarized by comparing the zonal-mean ozone distribution, the amplitude of eddy geopotential height, the zonal winds, and zonal-mean diabatic heating.

Shear-flow trapped-ion-mode interaction revisited. II. Intermittent transport associated with low-frequency zonal flow dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghizzo, A., E-mail: alain.ghizzo@univ-lorraine.fr; Palermo, F.

We address the mechanisms underlying low-frequency zonal flow generation in turbulent system and the associated intermittent regime of ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) turbulence. This model is in connection with the recent observation of quasi periodic zonal flow oscillation at a frequency close to 2 kHz, at the low-high transition, observed in the ASDEX Upgrade [Conway et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 065001 (2011)] and EAST tokamak [Xu et al., Phys. Rev. Lett 107, 125001 (2011)]. Turbulent bursts caused by the coupling of Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) driven shear flows with trapped ion modes (TIMs) were investigated by means of reduced gyrokinetic simulations. It was foundmore » that ITG turbulence can be regulated by low-frequency meso-scale zonal flows driven by resonant collisionless trapped ion modes (CTIMs), through parametric-type scattering, a process in competition with the usual KH instability.« less

Comparison between SAGE II and ISCCP high-level clouds. 1: Global and zonal mean cloud amounts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Xiaohan; Rossow, William B.; Rind, David

1995-01-01

Global high-level clouds identified in Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) occultation measurements for January and July in the period 1985 to 1990 are compared with near-nadir-looking observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Global and zonal mean high-level cloud amounts from the two data sets agree very well, if clouds with layer extinction coefficients of less than 0.008/km at 1.02 micrometers wavelength are removed from the SAGE II results and all detected clouds are interpreted to have an average horizontal size of about 75 km along the 200 km transimission path length of the SAGE II observations. The SAGE II results are much more sensitive to variations of assumed cloud size than to variations of detection threshold. The geographical distribution of cloud fractions shows good agreement, but systematic regional differences also indicate that the average cloud size varies somewhat among different climate regimes. The more sensitive SAGE II results show that about one third of all high-level clouds are missed by ISCCP but that these clouds have very low optical thicknesses (less than 0.1 at 0.6 micrometers wavelength). SAGE II sampling error in monthly zonal cloud fraction is shown to produce no bias, to be less than the intraseasonal natural variability, but to be comparable with the natural variability at longer time scales.

Modeling the zonal disintegration of rocks near deep level tunnels by gradient internal variable continuous phase transition theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haoxiang, Chen; Qi, Chengzhi; Peng, Liu; Kairui, Li; Aifantis, Elias C.

2015-12-01

The occurrence of alternating damage zones surrounding underground openings (commonly known as zonal disintegration) is treated as a "far from thermodynamic equilibrium" dynamical process or a nonlinear continuous phase transition phenomenon. The approach of internal variable gradient theory with diffusive transport, which may be viewed as a subclass of Landau's phase transition theory, is adopted. The order parameter is identified with an irreversible strain quantity, the gradient of which enters into the expression for the free energy of the rock system. The gradient term stabilizes the material behavior in the post-softening regime, where zonal disintegration occurs. The results of a simplified linearized analysis are confirmed by the numerical solution of the nonlinear problem.

Zonal wavefront sensing with enhanced spatial resolution.

PubMed

Pathak, Biswajit; Boruah, Bosanta R

2016-12-01

In this Letter, we introduce a scheme to enhance the spatial resolution of a zonal wavefront sensor. The zonal wavefront sensor comprises an array of binary gratings implemented by a ferroelectric spatial light modulator (FLCSLM) followed by a lens, in lieu of the array of lenses in the Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. We show that the fast response of the FLCSLM device facilitates quick display of several laterally shifted binary grating patterns, and the programmability of the device enables simultaneous capturing of each focal spot array. This eventually leads to a wavefront estimation with an enhanced spatial resolution without much sacrifice on the sensor frame rate, thus making the scheme suitable for high spatial resolution measurement of transient wavefronts. We present experimental and numerical simulation results to demonstrate the importance of the proposed wavefront sensing scheme.

Simulations of Tokamak Edge Turbulence Including Self-Consistent Zonal Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Bruce; Umansky, Maxim

2013-10-01

Progress on simulations of electromagnetic drift-resistive ballooning turbulence in the tokamak edge is summarized in this mini-conference talk. A more detailed report on this work is presented in a poster at this conference. This work extends our previous work to include self-consistent zonal flows and their effects. The previous work addressed the simulation of L-mode tokamak edge turbulence using the turbulence code BOUT. The calculations used realistic single-null geometry and plasma parameters of the DIII-D tokamak and produced fluctuation amplitudes, fluctuation spectra, and particle and thermal fluxes that compare favorably to experimental data. In the effect of sheared ExB poloidal rotation is included with an imposed static radial electric field fitted to experimental data. In the new work here we include the radial electric field self-consistently driven by the microturbulence, which contributes to the sheared ExB poloidal rotation (zonal flow generation). We present simulations with/without zonal flows for both cylindrical geometry, as in the UCLA Large Plasma Device, and for the DIII-D tokamak L-mode cases in to quantify the influence of self-consistent zonal flows on the microturbulence and the concomitant transport. This work was performed under the auspices of the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Conservative zonal schemes for patched grids in 2 and 3 dimensions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hessenius, Kristin A.

1987-01-01

The computation of flow over complex geometries, such as realistic aircraft configurations, poses difficult grid generation problems for computational aerodynamicists. The creation of a traditional, single-module grid of acceptable quality about an entire configuration may be impossible even with the most sophisticated of grid generation techniques. A zonal approach, wherein the flow field is partitioned into several regions within which grids are independently generated, is a practical alternative for treating complicated geometries. This technique not only alleviates the problems of discretizing a complex region, but also facilitates a block processing approach to computation thereby circumventing computer memory limitations. The use of such a zonal scheme, however, requires the development of an interfacing procedure that ensures a stable, accurate, and conservative calculation for the transfer of information across the zonal borders.

Model averaging in linkage analysis.

PubMed

Matthysse, Steven

2006-06-05

Methods for genetic linkage analysis are traditionally divided into "model-dependent" and "model-independent," but there may be a useful place for an intermediate class, in which a broad range of possible models is considered as a parametric family. It is possible to average over model space with an empirical Bayes prior that weights models according to their goodness of fit to epidemiologic data, such as the frequency of the disease in the population and in first-degree relatives (and correlations with other traits in the pleiotropic case). For averaging over high-dimensional spaces, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has great appeal, but it has a near-fatal flaw: it is not possible, in most cases, to provide rigorous sufficient conditions to permit the user safely to conclude that the chain has converged. A way of overcoming the convergence problem, if not of solving it, rests on a simple application of the principle of detailed balance. If the starting point of the chain has the equilibrium distribution, so will every subsequent point. The first point is chosen according to the target distribution by rejection sampling, and subsequent points by an MCMC process that has the target distribution as its equilibrium distribution. Model averaging with an empirical Bayes prior requires rapid estimation of likelihoods at many points in parameter space. Symbolic polynomials are constructed before the random walk over parameter space begins, to make the actual likelihood computations at each step of the random walk very fast. Power analysis in an illustrative case is described. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Analysis of solute-protein interactions and solute-solute competition by zonal elution affinity chromatography.

PubMed

Tao, Pingyang; Poddar, Saumen; Sun, Zuchen; Hage, David S; Chen, Jianzhong

2018-02-02

Many biological processes involve solute-protein interactions and solute-solute competition for protein binding. One method that has been developed to examine these interactions is zonal elution affinity chromatography. This review discusses the theory and principles of zonal elution affinity chromatography, along with its general applications. Examples of applications that are examined include the use of this method to estimate the relative extent of solute-protein binding, to examine solute-solute competition and displacement from proteins, and to measure the strength of these interactions. It is also shown how zonal elution affinity chromatography can be used in solvent and temperature studies and to characterize the binding sites for solutes on proteins. In addition, several alternative applications of zonal elution affinity chromatography are discussed, which include the analysis of binding by a solute with a soluble binding agent and studies of allosteric effects. Other recent applications that are considered are the combined use of immunoextraction and zonal elution for drug-protein binding studies, and binding studies that are based on immobilized receptors or small targets. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in the Zonal Winds over the Southern Ocean from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and Scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richman, J. G.

2002-12-01

The winds over the Southern Ocean for the entire 54-year (1948-2001) period of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis have been decomposed into Principal Components (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). The first EOF describes 83 percent of the variance in the zonal wind. The loading of the EOF shows the predominately westerly surface flow with strongest winds in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. The structure of this EOF is similar to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) identified by Thompson, et al 2000. The amplitude of this EOF reveals a large trend of 4.42 cm/s/yr in the strength of the zonal wind corresponding to a nearly 50 percent increase in the wind stress over the Southern Ocean. Such a trend, if real, would be important in the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Recent studies by Gille, et al. (2001), Olbers and Ivchenko (2001) and Gent et al. (2001) have shown that the transport of the ACC is correlated to the variability in the zonal wind with a monotonic increase in the transport with increasing zonal wind strength. However, errors in the data assimilation scheme for surface pressure observations on the Antarctic continent appears to have caused a spurious trend in the sea level pressure south of 40S of -0.2 hPa/yr (Hines, et al. 2000 and Marshall, 2002). The sea level pressure difference between 40S and 60S has risen by 8 hPa over the same period. This sea level pressure difference is used as a proxy for the strength of the zonal winds. Thus, the trend in the zonal wind EOF amplitude may be an artifact of model errors in the NCEP Reanalysis. To check this trend, we analyzed scatterometer winds over the Southern Ocean from the SEASAT, ERS (1 and 2), NSCAT and QuikScat satellites. The scatterometer data is not used in the NCEP Reanalysis and, thus, is an independent estimate of the winds. The SEASAT Scatterometer (SASS) operated for 90 days in July-September, 1978, while the ERS, NSCAT and QuikScat scatterometers provide a continuous dataset from

A theory of self-organized zonal flow with fine radial structure in tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. Z.; Liu, Z. Y.; Xie, T.; Mahajan, S. M.; Liu, J.

2017-12-01

The (low frequency) zonal flow-ion temperature gradient (ITG) wave system, constructed on Braginskii's fluid model in tokamak, is shown to be a reaction-diffusion-advection system; it is derived by making use of a multiple spatiotemporal scale technique and two-dimensional (2D) ballooning theory. For real regular group velocities of ITG waves, two distinct temporal processes, sharing a very similar meso-scale radial structure, are identified in the nonlinear self-organized stage. The stationary and quasi-stationary structures reflect a particular feature of the poloidal group velocity. The equation set posed to be an initial value problem is numerically solved for JET low mode parameters; the results are presented in several figures and two movies that show the spatiotemporal evolutions as well as the spectrum analysis—frequency-wave number spectrum, auto power spectrum, and Lissajous diagram. This approach reveals that the zonal flow in tokamak is a local traveling wave. For the quasi-stationary process, the cycle of ITG wave energy is composed of two consecutive phases in distinct spatiotemporal structures: a pair of Cavitons growing and breathing slowly without long range propagation, followed by a sudden decay into many Instantons that carry negative wave energy rapidly into infinity. A spotlight onto the motion of Instantons for a given radial position reproduces a Blob-Hole temporal structure; the occurrence as well as the rapid decay of Caviton into Instantons is triggered by zero-crossing of radial group velocity. A sample of the radial profile of zonal flow contributed from 31 nonlinearly coupled rational surfaces near plasma edge is found to be very similar to that observed in the JET Ohmic phase [J. C. Hillesheim et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 165002 (2016)]. The theory predicts an interior asymmetric dipole structure associated with the zonal flow that is driven by the gradients of ITG turbulence intensity.

On the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Garcia-Melendo, E.; Hueso, R.; Barrado-Izagirre, N.; Legarreta, J.; Rojas, J. F.

2012-12-01

We present an analysis of the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal wind profiles at their upper cloud level as retrieved from cloud motion tracking on images obtained at ground-based observatories and with different spacecraft missions since 1979, encompassing about three Jovian and one Saturn years. We study the sensitivity and variability of the zonal wind profile in both planets to major planetary-scale disturbances and to seasonal forcing. We finally discuss the implications that these results have for current model efforts to explain the global tropospheric circulation in these planets. Acknowledgements: This work has been funded by Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER support, Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07 and UPV/EHU UFI11/55. [1] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Icarus, 147, 405-420 (2000). [2] García-Melendo E., Sánchez LavegaA., Icarus, 152, 316-330 (2001) [3] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 423, 623-625 (2003). [4] García-Melendo E., et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22204 (2010).

Rossby Wave Propagation into the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere: The Role of Zonal Phase Speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Martius, Olivia; Jiménez-Esteve, Bernat

2018-02-01

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are to a dominant part induced by upward propagating planetary waves. While theory predicts that the zonal phase speed of a tropospheric wave forcing affects wave propagation into the stratosphere, its relevance for SSW events has so far not been considered. This study shows in a linear wave diagnostic and in reanalysis data that phase speeds tend eastward as waves propagate upward, indicating that the stratosphere preselects eastward phase speeds for propagation, especially for zonal wave number 2. This also affects SSW events: Split SSW events tend to be preceded by anomalously eastward zonal phase speeds. Zonal phase speed may indeed explain part of the increased wave flux observed during the preconditioning of SSW events, as, for example, for the record 2009 SSW event.

Residual zonal flows in tokamaks and stellarators at arbitrary wavelengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monreal, Pedro; Calvo, Iván; Sánchez, Edilberto; Parra, Félix I.; Bustos, Andrés; Könies, Axel; Kleiber, Ralf; Görler, Tobias

2016-04-01

In the linear collisionless limit, a zonal potential perturbation in a toroidal plasma relaxes, in general, to a non-zero residual value. Expressions for the residual value in tokamak and stellarator geometries, and for arbitrary wavelengths, are derived. These expressions involve averages over the lowest order particle trajectories, that typically cannot be evaluated analytically. In this work, an efficient numerical method for the evaluation of such expressions is reported. It is shown that this method is faster than direct gyrokinetic simulations performed with the Gene and EUTERPE codes. Calculations of the residual value in stellarators are provided for much shorter wavelengths than previously available in the literature. Electrons must be treated kinetically in stellarators because, unlike in tokamaks, kinetic electrons modify the residual value even at long wavelengths. This effect, that had already been predicted theoretically, is confirmed by gyrokinetic simulations.

A model of stratospheric chemistry and transport on an isentropic surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Austin, John; Holton, James R.

1990-01-01

This paper presents a new photochemical transport model designed to simulate the behavior of stratospheric trace species in the middle stratosphere. The model has an Eulerian grid with the latitude and longitude coordinates on a single isentropic surface (hemispheric or global), in which both the dynamical and the photochemical processes can be accurately represented. The model is intgegrated for 12 days with winds and temperatures supplied by three-dimensional integration of an idealized wavenumber-one disturbance. The results for the long-lived tracers such as N2O showed excellent correlation with the potential vorticity distribution, validating the transport scheme. Calculations with zonally averaged wind and temperature fields showed that discrepancies in the calculation of the zonal mean were less than 10 percent for O3 and HNO3, compared with the zonal mean of the previous results.

Regulation of electron temperature gradient turbulence by zonal flows driven by trapped electron modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asahi, Y., E-mail: y.asahi@nr.titech.ac.jp; Tsutsui, H.; Tsuji-Iio, S.

2014-05-15

Turbulent transport caused by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes was investigated by means of gyrokinetic simulations. It was found that the ETG turbulence can be regulated by meso-scale zonal flows driven by trapped electron modes (TEMs), which are excited with much smaller growth rates than those of ETG modes. The zonal flows of which radial wavelengths are in between the ion and the electron banana widths are not shielded by trapped ions nor electrons, and hence they are effectively driven by the TEMs. It was also shown that an E × B shearing rate of the TEM-driven zonal flows is larger thanmore » or comparable to the growth rates of long-wavelength ETG modes and TEMs, which make a main contribution to the turbulent transport before excitation of the zonal flows.« less

Ion Layer Separation and Equilibrium Zonal Winds in Midlatitude Sporadic E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Earle, G. D.; Kane, T. J.; Pfaff, R. F.; Bounds, S. R.

2000-01-01

In-situ observations of a moderately strong mid-latitude sporadic-E layer show a separation in altitude between distinct sublayers composed of Fe(+), Mg(+), and NO(+). From these observations it is possible to estimate the zonal wind field consistent with diffusive equilibrium near the altitude of the layer. The amplitude of the zonal wind necessary to sustain the layer against diffusive effects is less than 10 meters per second, and the vertical wavelength is less than 10 km.

Zonal and tesseral harmonic coefficients for the geopotential function, from zero to 18th order

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirkpatrick, J. C.

1976-01-01

Zonal and tesseral harmonic coefficients for the geopotential function are usually tabulated in normalized form to provide immediate information as to the relative significance of the coefficients in the gravity model. The normalized form of the geopotential coefficients cannot be used for computational purposes unless the gravity model has been modified to receive them. This modification is usually not done because the absolute or unnormalized form of the coefficients can be obtained from the simple mathematical relationship that relates the two forms. This computation can be quite tedious for hand calculation, especially for the higher order terms, and can be costly in terms of storage and execution time for machine computation. In this report, zonal and tesseral harmonic coefficients for the geopotential function are tabulated in absolute or unnormalized form. The report is designed to be used as a ready reference for both hand and machine calculation to save the user time and effort.

A thickness-weighted average perspective of force balance in an idealized circumpolar current

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ringler, Todd Darwin; Saenz, Juan Antonio; Wolfram, Jr., Phillip Justin

The exact, three-dimensional thickness-weighted averaged (TWA) Boussinesq equations are used to diagnose eddy-mean flow interaction in an idealized circumpolar current (ICC). The force exerted by mesoscale eddies on the TWA velocity is expressed as the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux tensor. Consistent with previous findings, the analysis indicates that the dynamically relevant definition of the ocean surface layer is comprised of the set of buoyancy coordinates that ever reside at the ocean surface at a given horizontal position. The surface layer is found to be a physically distinct object with a diabatic- and force-balance that is largely isolated from themore » underlying adiabatic region in the interior. Within the ICC surface layer, the TWA meridional velocity is southward/northward in the top/bottom half, and has a value near zero at the bottom. In the top half of the surface layer, the zonal forces due to wind stress and meridional advection of potential vorticity act to accelerate the TWA zonal velocity; equilibrium is obtained by eddies decelerating the zonal flow via a downward flux of eastward momentum that increases with depth. In the bottom half of the surface layer, the accelerating force of the wind stress is balanced by the eddy force and meridional advection of potential vorticity. The bottom of the surface layer coincides with the location where the zonal eddy force, meridional advection of potential vorticity and zonal wind stress force are all zero. The net meridional transport, S f, within the surface layer is a small residual of its southward and northward TWA meridional flows. Furthermore, the mean meridional gradient of surface-layer buoyancy is advected by S f to balance the surface buoyancy fluxs.« less

A thickness-weighted average perspective of force balance in an idealized circumpolar current

DOE PAGES

Ringler, Todd Darwin; Saenz, Juan Antonio; Wolfram, Jr., Phillip Justin; ...

2016-11-22

The exact, three-dimensional thickness-weighted averaged (TWA) Boussinesq equations are used to diagnose eddy-mean flow interaction in an idealized circumpolar current (ICC). The force exerted by mesoscale eddies on the TWA velocity is expressed as the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux tensor. Consistent with previous findings, the analysis indicates that the dynamically relevant definition of the ocean surface layer is comprised of the set of buoyancy coordinates that ever reside at the ocean surface at a given horizontal position. The surface layer is found to be a physically distinct object with a diabatic- and force-balance that is largely isolated from themore » underlying adiabatic region in the interior. Within the ICC surface layer, the TWA meridional velocity is southward/northward in the top/bottom half, and has a value near zero at the bottom. In the top half of the surface layer, the zonal forces due to wind stress and meridional advection of potential vorticity act to accelerate the TWA zonal velocity; equilibrium is obtained by eddies decelerating the zonal flow via a downward flux of eastward momentum that increases with depth. In the bottom half of the surface layer, the accelerating force of the wind stress is balanced by the eddy force and meridional advection of potential vorticity. The bottom of the surface layer coincides with the location where the zonal eddy force, meridional advection of potential vorticity and zonal wind stress force are all zero. The net meridional transport, S f, within the surface layer is a small residual of its southward and northward TWA meridional flows. Furthermore, the mean meridional gradient of surface-layer buoyancy is advected by S f to balance the surface buoyancy fluxs.« less

Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

2014-12-01

Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

Generation of zonal magnetic fields by low-frequency dispersive electromagnetic waves in a nonuniform dusty magnetoplasma.

PubMed

Shukla, P K

2004-04-01

It is shown that zonal magnetic fields can be parametrically excited by low-frequency dispersive driftlike compressional electromagnetic (DDCEM) modes in a nonuniform dusty magnetoplasma. For this purpose, we derive a pair of coupled equations which exhibits the nonlinear coupling between DDCEM modes and zonal magnetic fields. The coupled mode equations are Fourier analyzed to derive a nonlinear dispersion relation. The latter depicts that zonal magnetic fields are nonlinearly generated at the expense of the low-frequency DDCEM wave energy. The relevance of our investigation to the transfer of energy from short scale DDCEM waves to long scale zonal magnetic field structures in dark molecular clouds is discussed.

An Earth longwave radiation climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. K.

1984-01-01

An Earth outgoing longwave radiation (OLWR) climate model was constructed for radiation budget study. Required information is provided by on empirical 100mb water vapor mixing ratio equation of the mixing ratio interpolation scheme. Cloud top temperature is adjusted so that the calculation would agree with NOAA scanning radiometer measurements. Both clear sky and cloudy sky cases are calculated and discussed for global average, zonal average and world-wide distributed cases. The results agree well with the satellite observations. The clear sky case shows that the OLWR field is highly modulated by water vapor, especially in the tropics. The strongest longitudinal variation occurs in the tropics. This variation can be mostly explained by the strong water vapor gradient. Although in the zonal average case the tropics have a minimum in OLWR, the minimum is essentially contributed by a few very low flux regions, such as the Amazon, Indonesian and the Congo.

External Influences on Modeled and Observed Cloud Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Zelinka, Mark; Klein, Stephen A.; Bonfils, Celine; Caldwell, Peter; Doutriaux, Charles; Santer, Benjamin D.; Taylor, Karl E.

2015-01-01

Understanding the cloud response to external forcing is a major challenge for climate science. This crucial goal is complicated by intermodel differences in simulating present and future cloud cover and by observational uncertainty. This is the first formal detection and attribution study of cloud changes over the satellite era. Presented herein are CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5) model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to three cloud properties: the latitudes at which the zonally averaged total cloud fraction (CLT) is maximized or minimized, the zonal average CLT at these latitudes, and the height of high clouds at these latitudes. By considering simultaneous changes in all three properties, the authors define a coherent multivariate fingerprint of cloud response to external forcing and use models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to calculate the average time to detect these changes. It is found that given perfect satellite cloud observations beginning in 1983, the models indicate that a detectable multivariate signal should have already emerged. A search is then made for signals of external forcing in two observational datasets: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and PATMOS-x (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended). The datasets are both found to show a poleward migration of the zonal CLT pattern that is incompatible with forced CMIP5 models. Nevertheless, a detectable multivariate signal is predicted by models over the PATMOS-x time period and is indeed present in the dataset. Despite persistent observational uncertainties, these results present a strong case for continued efforts to improve these existing satellite observations, in addition to planning for new missions.

Role of zonal flows in trapped electron mode turbulence through nonlinear gyrokinetic particle and continuum simulationa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernst, D. R.; Lang, J.; Nevins, W. M.; Hoffman, M.; Chen, Y.; Dorland, W.; Parker, S.

2009-05-01

Trapped electron mode (TEM) turbulence exhibits a rich variety of collisional and zonal flow physics. This work explores the parametric variation of zonal flows and underlying mechanisms through a series of linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations, using both particle-in-cell and continuum methods. A new stability diagram for electron modes is presented, identifying a critical boundary at ηe=1, separating long and short wavelength TEMs. A novel parity test is used to separate TEMs from electron temperature gradient driven modes. A nonlinear scan of ηe reveals fine scale structure for ηe≳1, consistent with linear expectation. For ηe<1, zonal flows are the dominant saturation mechanism, and TEM transport is insensitive to ηe. For ηe>1, zonal flows are weak, and TEM transport falls inversely with a power law in ηe. The role of zonal flows appears to be connected to linear stability properties. Particle and continuum methods are compared in detail over a range of ηe=d ln Te/d ln ne values from zero to five. Linear growth rate spectra, transport fluxes, fluctuation wavelength spectra, zonal flow shearing spectra, and correlation lengths and times are in close agreement. In addition to identifying the critical parameter ηe for TEM zonal flows, this paper takes a challenging step in code verification, directly comparing very different methods of simulating simultaneous kinetic electron and ion dynamics in TEM turbulence.

Frequentist Model Averaging in Structural Equation Modelling.

PubMed

Jin, Shaobo; Ankargren, Sebastian

2018-06-04

Model selection from a set of candidate models plays an important role in many structural equation modelling applications. However, traditional model selection methods introduce extra randomness that is not accounted for by post-model selection inference. In the current study, we propose a model averaging technique within the frequentist statistical framework. Instead of selecting an optimal model, the contributions of all candidate models are acknowledged. Valid confidence intervals and a [Formula: see text] test statistic are proposed. A simulation study shows that the proposed method is able to produce a robust mean-squared error, a better coverage probability, and a better goodness-of-fit test compared to model selection. It is an interesting compromise between model selection and the full model.

Stationary zonal flows during the formation of the edge transport barrier in the JET tokamak

DOE PAGES

Hillesheim, J. C.; Meyer, H.; Maggi, C. F.; ...

2016-02-10

In this study, high spatial resolution Doppler backscattering measurements in JET have enabled new insights into the development of the edge E r. We observe fine-scale spatial structures in the edge E r well with a wave number k rρi ≈ 0.4-0.8, consistent with stationary zonal flows, the characteristics of which vary with density. The zonal flow amplitude and wavelength both decrease with local collisionality, such that the zonal flow E x B shear increases. Above the minimum of the L-H transition power threshold dependence on density, the zonal flows are present during L mode and disappear following the H-modemore » transition, while below the minimum they are reduced below measurable amplitude during L mode, before the L-H transition.« less

Model averaging, optimal inference, and habit formation

PubMed Central

FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

2014-01-01

Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function—the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge—that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behavior. Bayesian model averaging—which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence—provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent's behavior should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesize that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realizable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behavior. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded) Bayesian inference, focusing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behavior. PMID:25018724

A Convective Vorticity Vector Associated With Tropical Convection: A 2D Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Shou-Ting; Ping, Fan; Li, Xiao-Fan; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

Although dry/moist potential vorticity is a useful physical quantity for meteorological analysis, it cannot be applied to the analysis of 2D simulations. A convective vorticity vector (CVV) is introduced in this study to analyze 2D cloud-resolving simulation data associated with 2D tropical convection. The cloud model is forced by the vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal advection, and sea surface temperature obtained from the TOGA COARE, and is integrated for a selected 10-day period. The CVV has zonal and vertical components in the 2D x-z frame. Analysis of zonally-averaged and mass-integrated quantities shows that the correlation coefficient between the vertical component of the CVV and the sum of the cloud hydrometeor mixing ratios is 0.81, whereas the correlation coefficient between the zonal component and the sum of the mixing ratios is only 0.18. This indicates that the vertical component of the CVV is closely associated with tropical convection. The tendency equation for the vertical component of the CVV is derived and the zonally-averaged and mass-integrated tendency budgets are analyzed. The tendency of the vertical component of the CVV is determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal gradient of cloud heating. The results demonstrate that the vertical component of the CVV is a cloud-linked parameter and can be used to study tropical convection.

The transformation of vegetation vertical zonality affected by anthropogenic impact in East Fennoscandia (Russia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidorik, Vadim; Miulgauzen, Daria

2017-04-01

Ecosystems of East Fennoscandia have been affected by intensive anthropogenic influence that resulted in their significant transformation. Study of ecosystems in the framework of vegetation vertical zonality disturbance as well as its recovery allows to understand the trends of anthropogenically induced changes. The aim of the present research is the comparative analysis of vegetation vertical zonality of the two uplands in East Fennoscandia which may be considered as unaffected and affected by anthropogenic impact. The objects of key studies carried out in the north-west of Kola Peninsula in the vicinity of the Pechenganikel Mining and Metallurgical Plant are represented by ecosystems of Kalkupya (h 357 m) and Hangaslachdenvara (h 284 m) uplands. They are characterized by the similarity in sequence of altitudinal belts due to the position on the northern taiga - forest-tundra boundary. Plant communities of Kalkupya upland have no visible signs of anthropogenic influence, therefore, they can be considered as model ecosystems of the area. The sequence of altitudinal belts is the following: - up to 200 m - pine subshrub and green moss ("zonal") forest replaced by mixed pine and birch forest near the upper boundary; - 200-300 m - birch crooked subshrub wood; - above 300 m - tundra subshrub and lichen communities. Ecosystems of Hangaslachdenvara upland have been damaged by air pollution (SO2, Ni, Cu emissions) of the Pechenganikel Plant. This impact has led to plant community suppression and formation of barren lands. Besides the soil cover was significantly disturbed, especially upper horizons. Burying of soil profiles, represented by Podzols (WRB, 2015), also manifested itself in the exploited part of the area. The vegetation cover of Hangaslachdenvara upland is the following: - up to 130 m - birch and aspen subshrub and grass forest instead of pine forest ("zonal"); - 130-200 m - barren lands instead of pine forest ("zonal"); - above 200 m - barren lands instead of

Eddy, drift wave and zonal flow dynamics in a linear magnetized plasma

PubMed Central

Arakawa, H.; Inagaki, S.; Sasaki, M.; Kosuga, Y.; Kobayashi, T.; Kasuya, N.; Nagashima, Y.; Yamada, T.; Lesur, M.; Fujisawa, A.; Itoh, K.; Itoh, S.-I.

2016-01-01

Turbulence and its structure formation are universal in neutral fluids and in plasmas. Turbulence annihilates global structures but can organize flows and eddies. The mutual-interactions between flow and the eddy give basic insights into the understanding of non-equilibrium and nonlinear interaction by turbulence. In fusion plasma, clarifying structure formation by Drift-wave turbulence, driven by density gradients in magnetized plasma, is an important issue. Here, a new mutual-interaction among eddy, drift wave and flow in magnetized plasma is discovered. A two-dimensional solitary eddy, which is a perturbation with circumnavigating motion localized radially and azimuthally, is transiently organized in a drift wave – zonal flow (azimuthally symmetric band-like shear flows) system. The excitation of the eddy is synchronized with zonal perturbation. The organization of the eddy has substantial impact on the acceleration of zonal flow. PMID:27628894

Zonal wind observations during a geomagnetic storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, N. J.; Spencer, N. W.

1986-01-01

In situ measurements taken by the Wind and Temperature Spectrometer (WATS) onboard the Dynamics Explorer 2 spacecraft during a geomagnetic storm display zonal wind velocities that are reduced in the corotational direction as the storm intensifies. The data were taken within the altitudes 275 to 475 km in the dusk local time sector equatorward of the auroral region. Characteristic variations in the value of the Dst index of horizontal geomagnetic field strength are used to monitor the storm evolution. The detected global rise in atmospheric gas temperature indicates the development of thermospheric heating. Concurrent with that heating, reductions in corotational wind velocities were measured equatorward of the auroral region. Just after the sudden commencement, while thermospheric heating is intense in both hemispheres, eastward wind velocities in the northern hemisphere show reductions ranging from 500 m/s over high latitudes to 30 m/s over the geomagnetic equator. After 10 hours storm time, while northern thermospheric heating is diminishing, wind velocity reductions, distinct from those initially observed, begin to develop over southern latitudes. In the latter case, velocity reductions range from 300 m/s over the highest southern latitudes to 150 m/s over the geomagnetic equator and extend into the Northern Hemisphere. The observations highlight the interhemispheric asymmetry in the development of storm effects detected as enhanced gas temperatures and reduced eastward wind velocities. Zonal wind reductions over high latitudes can be attributed to the storm induced equatorward spread of westward polar cap plasma convection and the resulting plasma-neutral collisions. However, those collisions are less significant over low latitudes; so zonal wind reductions over low latitudes must be attributed to an equatorward extension of a thermospheric circulation pattern disrupted by high latitude collisions between neutrals transported via eastward winds and ions

Direct evidence of stationary zonal flows and critical gradient behavior for Er during formation of the edge pedestal in JET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillesheim, Jon

2015-11-01

High spatial resolution measurements with Doppler backscattering in JET have provided new insights into the development of the edge radial electric field during pedestal formation. The characteristics of Er have been studied as a function of density at 2.5 MA plasma current and 3 T toroidal magnetic field. We observe fine-scale spatial structure in the edge Er well prior to the LH transition, consistent with stationary zonal flows. Zonal flows are a fundamental mechanism for the saturation of turbulence and this is the first direct evidence of stationary zonal flows in a tokamak. The radial wavelength of the zonal flows systematically decreases with density. The zonal flows are clearest in Ohmic conditions, weaker in L-mode, and absent in H-mode. Measurements also show that after neutral beam heating is applied, the edge Er builds up at a constant gradient into the core during L-mode, at radii where Er is mainly due to toroidal velocity. The local stability of velocity shear driven turbulence, such as the parallel velocity gradient mode, will be assessed with gyrokinetic simulations. This critical Er shear persists across the LH transition into H-mode. Surprisingly, a reduction in the apparent magnitude of the Er well depth is observed directly following the LH transition at high densities. Establishing the physics basis for the LH transition is important for projecting scalings to ITER and these observations challenge existing models based on increased Er shear or strong zonal flows as the trigger for the transition. This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium and has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under grant agreement No 633053. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

PubMed

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

2016-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

A time-averaged regional model of the Hermean magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thébault, E.; Langlais, B.; Oliveira, J. S.; Amit, H.; Leclercq, L.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the first regional model of the magnetic field of Mercury developed with mathematical continuous functions. The model has a horizontal spatial resolution of about 830 km at the surface of the planet, and it is derived without any a priori information about the geometry of the internal and external fields or regularization. It relies on an extensive dataset of the MESSENGER's measurements selected over its entire orbital lifetime between 2011 and 2015. A first order separation between the internal and the external fields over the Northern hemisphere is achieved under the assumption that the magnetic field measurements are acquired in a source free region within the magnetospheric cavity. When downward continued to the core-mantle boundary, the model confirms some of the general structures observed in previous studies such as the dominance of zonal field, the location of the North magnetic pole, and the global absence of significant small scale structures. The transformation of the regional model into a global spherical harmonic one provides an estimate for the axial quadrupole to axial dipole ratio of about g20/g10 = 0.27 . This is much lower than previous estimates of about 0.40. We note that it is possible to obtain a similar ratio provided that more weight is put on the location of the magnetic equator and less elsewhere.

A zonally symmetric model for the monsoon-Hadley circulation with stochastic convective forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Chevrotière, Michèle; Khouider, Boualem

2017-02-01

Idealized models of reduced complexity are important tools to understand key processes underlying a complex system. In climate science in particular, they are important for helping the community improve our ability to predict the effect of climate change on the earth system. Climate models are large computer codes based on the discretization of the fluid dynamics equations on grids of horizontal resolution in the order of 100 km, whereas unresolved processes are handled by subgrid models. For instance, simple models are routinely used to help understand the interactions between small-scale processes due to atmospheric moist convection and large-scale circulation patterns. Here, a zonally symmetric model for the monsoon circulation is presented and solved numerically. The model is based on the Galerkin projection of the primitive equations of atmospheric synoptic dynamics onto the first modes of vertical structure to represent free tropospheric circulation and is coupled to a bulk atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model. The model carries bulk equations for water vapor in both the free troposphere and the ABL, while the processes of convection and precipitation are represented through a stochastic model for clouds. The model equations are coupled through advective nonlinearities, and the resulting system is not conservative and not necessarily hyperbolic. This makes the design of a numerical method for the solution of this system particularly difficult. Here, we develop a numerical scheme based on the operator time-splitting strategy, which decomposes the system into three pieces: a conservative part and two purely advective parts, each of which is solved iteratively using an appropriate method. The conservative system is solved via a central scheme, which does not require hyperbolicity since it avoids the Riemann problem by design. One of the advective parts is a hyperbolic diagonal matrix, which is easily handled by classical methods for hyperbolic equations, while

Influence of large-scale zonal flows on the evolution of stellar and planetary magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petitdemange, Ludovic; Schrinner, Martin; Dormy, Emmanuel; ENS Collaboration

2011-10-01

Zonal flows and magnetic field are present in various objects as accretion discs, stars and planets. Observations show a huge variety of stellar and planetary magnetic fields. Of particular interest is the understanding of cyclic field variations, as known from the sun. They are often explained by an important Ω-effect, i.e., by the stretching of field lines because of strong differential rotation. We computed the dynamo coefficients for an oscillatory dynamo model with the help of the test-field method. We argue that this model is of α2 Ω -type and here the Ω-effect alone is not responsible for its cyclic time variation. More general conditions which lead to dynamo waves in global direct numerical simulations are presented. Zonal flows driven by convection in planetary interiors may lead to secondary instabilities. We showed that a simple, modified version of the MagnetoRotational Instability, i.e., the MS-MRI can develop in planteray interiors. The weak shear yields an instability by its constructive interaction with the much larger rotation rate of planets. We present results from 3D simulations and show that 3D MS-MRI modes can generate wave pattern at the surface of the spherical numerical domain. Zonal flows and magnetic field are present in various objects as accretion discs, stars and planets. Observations show a huge variety of stellar and planetary magnetic fields. Of particular interest is the understanding of cyclic field variations, as known from the sun. They are often explained by an important Ω-effect, i.e., by the stretching of field lines because of strong differential rotation. We computed the dynamo coefficients for an oscillatory dynamo model with the help of the test-field method. We argue that this model is of α2 Ω -type and here the Ω-effect alone is not responsible for its cyclic time variation. More general conditions which lead to dynamo waves in global direct numerical simulations are presented. Zonal flows driven by convection

Simulations of Turbulence in Tokamak Edge and Effects of Self-Consistent Zonal Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Bruce; Umansky, Maxim

2013-10-01

Progress is reported on simulations of electromagnetic drift-resistive ballooning turbulence in the tokamak edge. This extends previous work to include self-consistent zonal flows and their effects. The previous work addressed simulation of L-mode tokamak edge turbulence using the turbulence code BOUT that solves Braginskii-based plasma fluid equations in tokamak edge domain. The calculations use realistic single-null geometry and plasma parameters of the DIII-D tokamak and produce fluctuation amplitudes, fluctuation spectra, and particle and thermal fluxes that compare favorably to experimental data. In the effect of sheared ExB poloidal rotation is included with an imposed static radial electric field fitted to experimental data. In the new work here we include the radial electric field self-consistently driven by the microturbulence, which contributes to the sheared ExB poloidal rotation (zonal flow generation). We present simulations with/without zonal flows for both cylindrical geometry, as in the UCLA Large Plasma Device, and for the DIII-D tokamak L-mode cases in to quantify the influence of self-consistent zonal flows on the microturbulence and the concomitant transport. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

2018-02-01

In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Seok-Woo; Han, Bo-Reum; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kim, Seo-Yeon; Park, Rokjin; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oman, Luke D.; Plummer, David A.; Pozzer, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

2018-05-01

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging.

PubMed

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-04-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment.

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging

PubMed Central

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-01-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment. PMID:19381329

Acute Zonal Cone Photoreceptor Outer Segment Loss.

PubMed

Aleman, Tomas S; Sandhu, Harpal S; Serrano, Leona W; Traband, Anastasia; Lau, Marisa K; Adamus, Grazyna; Avery, Robert A

2017-05-01

The diagnostic path presented narrows down the cause of acute vision loss to the cone photoreceptor outer segment and will refocus the search for the cause of similar currently idiopathic conditions. To describe the structural and functional associations found in a patient with acute zonal occult photoreceptor loss. A case report of an adolescent boy with acute visual field loss despite a normal fundus examination performed at a university teaching hospital. Results of a complete ophthalmic examination, full-field flash electroretinography (ERG) and multifocal ERG, light-adapted achromatic and 2-color dark-adapted perimetry, and microperimetry. Imaging was performed with spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), near-infrared (NIR) and short-wavelength (SW) fundus autofluorescence (FAF), and NIR reflectance (REF). The patient was evaluated within a week of the onset of a scotoma in the nasal field of his left eye. Visual acuity was 20/20 OU, and color vision was normal in both eyes. Results of the fundus examination and of SW-FAF and NIR-FAF imaging were normal in both eyes, whereas NIR-REF imaging showed a region of hyporeflectance temporal to the fovea that corresponded with a dense relative scotoma noted on light-adapted static perimetry in the left eye. Loss in the photoreceptor outer segment detected by SD-OCT co-localized with an area of dense cone dysfunction detected on light-adapted perimetry and multifocal ERG but with near-normal rod-mediated vision according to results of 2-color dark-adapted perimetry. Full-field flash ERG findings were normal in both eyes. The outer nuclear layer and inner retinal thicknesses were normal. Localized, isolated cone dysfunction may represent the earliest photoreceptor abnormality or a distinct entity within the acute zonal occult outer retinopathy complex. Acute zonal occult outer retinopathy should be considered in patients with acute vision loss and abnormalities on NIR-REF imaging, especially if

Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

Relationship between eastern tropical Pacific cooling and recent trends in the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clem, Kyle R.; Renwick, James A.; McGregor, James

2017-07-01

During 1979-2014, eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures significantly cooled, which has generally been attributed to the transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to its negative phase after 1999. We find the eastern tropical Pacific cooling to be associated with: (1) an intensified Walker Circulation during austral summer (December-February, DJF) and autumn (March-May, MAM); (2) a weakened South Pacific Hadley cell and subtropical jet during MAM; and (3) a strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies between 50 and 60°S during DJF and MAM. Observed cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific is linearly congruent with 60-80 % of the observed Southern Hemisphere positive zonal-mean zonal wind trend between 50 and 60°S during DJF ( 35 % of the interannual variability), and around half of the observed positive zonal-mean zonal wind trend during MAM ( 15 % of the interannual variability). Although previous studies have linked the strengthened DJF and MAM circumpolar westerlies to stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gases, we note that the continuation of the positive SAM trends into the twenty-first century is partially associated with eastern tropical Pacific cooling, especially during MAM when zonal wind anomalies associated with eastern tropical Pacific cooling project strongly onto the observed trends. Outside of DJF and MAM, eastern tropical Pacific cooling is associated with opposing zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific and Indian sectors, which we infer is the reason for the absence of significant positive SAM trends outside of DJF and MAM despite significant eastern tropical Pacific cooling seen during all seasons.

High-fidelity simulations of unsteady civil aircraft aerodynamics: stakes and perspectives. Application of zonal detached eddy simulation

PubMed Central

Deck, Sébastien; Gand, Fabien; Brunet, Vincent; Ben Khelil, Saloua

2014-01-01

This paper provides an up-to-date survey of the use of zonal detached eddy simulations (ZDES) for unsteady civil aircraft applications as a reflection on the stakes and perspectives of the use of hybrid methods in the framework of industrial aerodynamics. The issue of zonal or non-zonal treatment of turbulent flows for engineering applications is discussed. The ZDES method used in this article and based on a fluid problem-dependent zonalization is briefly presented. Some recent landmark achievements for conditions all over the flight envelope are presented, including low-speed (aeroacoustics of high-lift devices and landing gear), cruising (engine–airframe interactions), propulsive jets and off-design (transonic buffet and dive manoeuvres) applications. The implications of such results and remaining challenges in a more global framework are further discussed. PMID:25024411

Pronounced zonal heterogeneity in Eocene southern high-latitude sea surface temperatures.

PubMed

Douglas, Peter M J; Affek, Hagit P; Ivany, Linda C; Houben, Alexander J P; Sijp, Willem P; Sluijs, Appy; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark

2014-05-06

Paleoclimate studies suggest that increased global warmth during the Eocene epoch was greatly amplified at high latitudes, a state that climate models cannot fully reproduce. However, proxy estimates of Eocene near-Antarctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have produced widely divergent results at similar latitudes, with SSTs above 20 °C in the southwest Pacific contrasting with SSTs between 5 and 15 °C in the South Atlantic. Validation of this zonal temperature difference has been impeded by uncertainties inherent to the individual paleotemperature proxies applied at these sites. Here, we present multiproxy data from Seymour Island, near the Antarctic Peninsula, that provides well-constrained evidence for annual SSTs of 10-17 °C (1σ SD) during the middle and late Eocene. Comparison of the same paleotemperature proxy at Seymour Island and at the East Tasman Plateau indicate the presence of a large and consistent middle-to-late Eocene SST gradient of ∼7 °C between these two sites located at similar paleolatitudes. Intermediate-complexity climate model simulations suggest that enhanced oceanic heat transport in the South Pacific, driven by deep-water formation in the Ross Sea, was largely responsible for the observed SST gradient. These results indicate that very warm SSTs, in excess of 18 °C, did not extend uniformly across the Eocene southern high latitudes, and suggest that thermohaline circulation may partially control the distribution of high-latitude ocean temperatures in greenhouse climates. The pronounced zonal SST heterogeneity evident in the Eocene cautions against inferring past meridional temperature gradients using spatially limited data within given latitudinal bands.

Convection driven zonal flows and vortices in the major planets.

PubMed

Busse, F. H.

1994-06-01

The dynamical properties of convection in rotating cylindrical annuli and spherical shells are reviewed. Simple theoretical models and experimental simulations of planetary convection through the use of the centrifugal force in the laboratory are emphasized. The model of columnar convection in a cylindrical annulus not only serves as a guide to the dynamical properties of convection in rotating sphere; it also is of interest as a basic physical system that exhibits several dynamical properties in their most simple form. The generation of zonal mean flows is discussed in some detail and examples of recent numerical computations are presented. The exploration of the parameter space for the annulus model is not yet complete and the theoretical exploration of convection in rotating spheres is still in the beginning phase. Quantitative comparisons with the observations of the dynamics of planetary atmospheres will have to await the consideration in the models of the effects of magnetic fields and the deviations from the Boussinesq approximation.

Diffusion of Zonal Variables Using Node-Centered Diffusion Solver

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, T B

2007-08-06

Tom Kaiser [1] has done some preliminary work to use the node-centered diffusion solver (originally developed by T. Palmer [2]) in Kull for diffusion of zonal variables such as electron temperature. To avoid numerical diffusion, Tom used a scheme developed by Shestakov et al. [3] and found their scheme could, in the vicinity of steep gradients, decouple nearest-neighbor zonal sub-meshes leading to 'alternating-zone' (red-black mode) errors. Tom extended their scheme to couple the sub-meshes with appropriate chosen artificial diffusion and thereby solved the 'alternating-zone' problem. Because the choice of the artificial diffusion coefficient could be very delicate, it is desirablemore » to use a scheme that does not require the artificial diffusion but still able to avoid both numerical diffusion and the 'alternating-zone' problem. In this document we present such a scheme.« less

Are Strong Zonal Winds in Giant Planets Caused by Density-Stratification?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verhoeven, J.; Stellmach, S.

2012-12-01

One of the most striking features of giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn are the zonal wind patterns observed on their surfaces. The mechanism that drives this differential rotation is still not clearly identified and is currently strongly debated in the astro- and geophysics community. Different mechanisms have been proposed over the last decades. Here, a recently discovered mechanism based on background density stratification (Glatzmaier et al., 2009) is investigated. This mechanism has the potential to overcome known difficulties of previous explanations and its efficiency has been demonstrated in 2-d simulations covering equatorial planes. By performing highly resolved numerical simulations in a local Cartesian geometry, we are able to test the efficiency and functionality of this mechanism in turbulent, rotating convection in three spatial dimensions. The choice of a Cartesian model geometry naturally excludes other known mechanisms capable of producing differential rotation, thus allowing us to investigate the role of density stratification in isolation. Typically, the dynamics can be classified into two main regimes: A regime exhibiting strong zonal winds for weak to moderate thermal driving and a regime where zonal winds are largely absent in the case of a strong thermal forcing. Our results indicate that previous 2-d results must be handled with care and can only explain parts of the full 3-d behavior. We show that the density-stratification mechanism tends to operate in a more narrow parameter range in 3-d as compared to 2-d simulations. The dynamics of the regime transition is shown to differ in both cases, which renders scaling laws derived from two-dimensional studies questionable. Based on our results, we provide estimates for the importance of the density-stratification mechanism for giant planets like Jupiter (strong density stratification), for systems like the Earth's core (weak density stratification) and compare its efficiency with other

Zonal PANS: evaluation of different treatments of the RANS-LES interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, L.

2016-03-01

The partially Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) model can be used to simulate turbulent flows either as RANS, large eddy simulation (LES) or DNS. Its main parameter is fk whose physical meaning is the ratio of the modelled to the total turbulent kinetic energy. In RANS fk = 1, in DNS fk = 0 and in LES fk takes values between 0 and 1. Three different ways of prescribing fk are evaluated for decaying grid turbulence and fully developed channel flow: fk = 0.4, fk = k3/2tot/ɛ and, from its definition, fk = k/ktot where ktot is the sum of the modelled, k, and resolved, kres, turbulent kinetic energy. It is found that the fk = 0.4 gives the best results. In Girimaji and Wallin, a method was proposed to include the effect of the gradient of fk. This approach is used at RANS- LES interface in the present study. Four different interface models are evaluated in fully developed channel flow and embedded LES of channel flow: in both cases, PANS is used as a zonal model with fk = 1 in the unsteady RANS (URANS) region and fk = 0.4 in the LES region. In fully developed channel flow, the RANS- LES interface is parallel to the wall (horizontal) and in embedded LES, it is parallel to the inlet (vertical). The importance of the location of the horizontal interface in fully developed channel flow is also investigated. It is found that the location - and the choice of the treatment at the interface - may be critical at low Reynolds number or if the interface is placed too close to the wall. The reason is that the modelled turbulent shear stress at the interface is large and hence the relative strength of the resolved turbulence is small. In RANS, the turbulent viscosity - and consequently also the modelled Reynolds shear stress - is only weakly dependent on Reynolds number. It is found in the present work that it also applies in the URANS region.

On the Longitudinal Morphology of Zonal Irregularity Drift Measured using Networks of GPS Scintillation Monitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrano, C. S.; Groves, K. M.; Valladares, C. E.; Delay, S. H.

2014-12-01

A complete characterization of field-aligned ionospheric irregularities responsible for the scintillation of satellite signals includes not only their spectral properties (power spectral strength, spectral index, anisotropy ratio, and outer-scale) but also their horizontal drift velocity. From a system impacts perspective, the horizontal drift velocity is important in that it dictates the rate of signal fading and also, to an extent, the level of phase fluctuations encountered by the receiver. From a physics perspective, studying the longitudinal morphology of zonal irregularity may lead to an improved understanding of the F region dynamo and regional electrodynamics at low latitudes. The irregularity drift at low latitudes is predominantly zonal and is most commonly measured by cross-correlating observations of satellite signals made by a pair of closely-spaced antennas. The AFRL-SCINDA network operates a small number of VHF spaced-antenna systems at low latitude stations for this purpose. A far greater number of GPS scintillation monitors are operated by AFRL-SCINDA (25-30) and the Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (35-50), but the receivers are situated too far apart to monitor the drift using cross-correlation techniques. In this paper, we present an alternative approach that leverages the weak scatter scintillation theory (Rino, Radio Sci., 1979) to infer the zonal irregularity drift from single-station GPS measurements of S4, sigma-phi, and the propagation geometry alone. Unlike the spaced-receiver technique, this technique requires assumptions for the height of the scattering layer (which introduces a bias in the drift estimates) and the spectral index of the irregularities (which affects the spread of the drift estimates about the mean). Nevertheless, theory and experiment show that the ratio of sigma-phi to S4 is less sensitive to these parameters than it is to the zonal drift, and hence the zonal drift can be estimated with reasonable accuracy. In

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

PubMed Central

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

Equinoctial asymmetry in the zonal distribution of scintillation as observed by GPS receivers in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadi, P.; Otsuka, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Husin, A.; Liu, Huixin; Saito, S.

2017-08-01

We investigate the azimuthal distribution of amplitude scintillation observed by Global Positioning System (GPS) ground receivers at Pontianak (0.0°S, 109.3°E; magnetic latitude: 9.8°S) and Bandung (6.9°S, 107.6°E; magnetic latitude: 16.7°S) in Indonesia in March and September from 2011 to 2015. The scintillation is found to occur more to the west than to the east in March at both stations, whereas no such zonal difference is found in September. We also analyze the zonal scintillation drift as estimated using three closely spaced single-frequency GPS receivers at Kototabang (0.2°S, 100.3°E; magnetic latitude: 9.9°S) in Indonesia during 2003-2015 and the zonal thermospheric neutral wind as measured by the CHAMP satellite at longitudes of 90°-120°E during 2001-2008. We find that the velocities of both the zonal scintillation drift and the neutral wind decrease with increasing latitudes. Interestingly, the latitudinal gradients of both the zonal scintillation drift and the neutral wind are steeper in March than in September. These steeper March gradients may be responsible for the increased westward altitudinal and latitudinal tilting of plasma bubbles in March. This equinoctial asymmetry could be responsible for the observed westward bias in scintillation in March, because the scintillation is more likely to occur when radio waves pass through longer lengths of plasma irregularities in the plasma bubbles.

Bounded relative motion under zonal harmonics perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baresi, Nicola; Scheeres, Daniel J.

2017-04-01

The problem of finding natural bounded relative trajectories between the different units of a distributed space system is of great interest to the astrodynamics community. This is because most popular initialization methods still fail to establish long-term bounded relative motion when gravitational perturbations are involved. Recent numerical searches based on dynamical systems theory and ergodic maps have demonstrated that bounded relative trajectories not only exist but may extend up to hundreds of kilometers, i.e., well beyond the reach of currently available techniques. To remedy this, we introduce a novel approach that relies on neither linearized equations nor mean-to-osculating orbit element mappings. The proposed algorithm applies to rotationally symmetric bodies and is based on a numerical method for computing quasi-periodic invariant tori via stroboscopic maps, including extra constraints to fix the average of the nodal period and RAAN drift between two consecutive equatorial plane crossings of the quasi-periodic solutions. In this way, bounded relative trajectories of arbitrary size can be found with great accuracy as long as these are allowed by the natural dynamics and the physical constraints of the system (e.g., the surface of the gravitational attractor). This holds under any number of zonal harmonics perturbations and for arbitrary time intervals as demonstrated by numerical simulations about an Earth-like planet and the highly oblate primary of the binary asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4.

Saturn Ring Mass and Zonal Gravitational Harmonics Estimate at the End of the Cassini "Grand Finale"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brozovic, M.; Jacobson, R. A.; Roth, D. C.

2015-12-01

"Solstice" mission is the 7-year extension of the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft exploration of the Saturn system that will culminate with the "Grand Finale". Beginning in mid-2017, the spacecraft is scheduled to execute 22 orbits that have their periapses between the innermost D-ring and the upper layers of Saturn's atmosphere. These orbits will be perturbed by the gravitational field of Saturn as well as by the rings. We present an analysis of simulated "Grand Finale" radiometric data, and we investigate their sensitivity to the ring mass and higher zonal gravitational harmonics of the planet. We model the data quantity with respect to the available coverage of the tracking stations on Earth, and we account for the times when the spacecraft is occulted either by Saturn or the rings. We also use different data weights to simulate changes in the data quality. The dynamical model of the spacecraft motion includes both gravitational and non-gravitational forces, such as the daily momentum management due to Reaction Wheel Assembly and radioisotope thermo-electric generator accelerations. We solve the equations of motion and use a weighted-least squares fit to obtain spacecraft's state vector, mass(es) of the ring or the individual rings, zonal harmonics, and non-gravitational accelerations. We also investigate some a-priori values of the A- and B-ring masses from Tiscareno et al. (2007) and Hedman et al. (2015) analyses. The preliminary results suggest that the "Grand Finale" orbits should remain sensitive to the ring mass even for GMring<2 km3/s2 and that they will also provide high accuracy estimates of the zonal harmonics J8, J10, and J12.

On the wave forcing of the semi-annual zonal wind oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagpal, O. P.; Raghavarao, R.

1991-01-01

Observational evidence of rather large period waves (23-60 d) in the troposphere/stratosphere, particularly during the winter months, is presented. Wind data collected on a regular basis employing high-altitude balloons and meteorological rockets over the past few years are used. Maximum entropy methods applied to the time series of zonal wind data indicate the presence of 23-60-waves more prominently than shorter-period waves. The waves have substantial amplitudes in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, often larger than those noted in the troposphere. The mean zonal wind in the troposphere (5-15 km altitude) during December, January, and February exhibits the presence of strong westerlies at latitudes between 8 and 21 deg N.

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models*

PubMed Central

Lenkoski, Alex; Eicher, Theo S.; Raftery, Adrian E.

2013-01-01

Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator. By constructing a Two-Stage Unit Information Prior in the endogenous variable model, we are able to efficiently combine established methods for addressing model uncertainty in regression models with the classic technique of 2SLS. To assess the validity of instruments in the 2SBMA context, we develop Bayesian tests of the identification restriction that are based on model averaged posterior predictive p-values. A simulation study showed that 2SBMA has the ability to recover structure in both the instrument and covariate set, and substantially improves the sharpness of resulting coefficient estimates in comparison to 2SLS using the full specification in an automatic fashion. Due to the increased parsimony of the 2SBMA estimate, the Bayesian Sargan test had a power of 50 percent in detecting a violation of the exogeneity assumption, while the method based on 2SLS using the full specification had negligible power. We apply our approach to the problem of development accounting, and find support not only for institutions, but also for geography and integration as development determinants, once both model uncertainty and endogeneity have been jointly addressed. PMID:24223471

High-fidelity simulations of unsteady civil aircraft aerodynamics: stakes and perspectives. Application of zonal detached eddy simulation.

PubMed

Deck, Sébastien; Gand, Fabien; Brunet, Vincent; Ben Khelil, Saloua

2014-08-13

This paper provides an up-to-date survey of the use of zonal detached eddy simulations (ZDES) for unsteady civil aircraft applications as a reflection on the stakes and perspectives of the use of hybrid methods in the framework of industrial aerodynamics. The issue of zonal or non-zonal treatment of turbulent flows for engineering applications is discussed. The ZDES method used in this article and based on a fluid problem-dependent zonalization is briefly presented. Some recent landmark achievements for conditions all over the flight envelope are presented, including low-speed (aeroacoustics of high-lift devices and landing gear), cruising (engine-airframe interactions), propulsive jets and off-design (transonic buffet and dive manoeuvres) applications. The implications of such results and remaining challenges in a more global framework are further discussed. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2000-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

Pronounced zonal heterogeneity in Eocene southern high-latitude sea surface temperatures

PubMed Central

Douglas, Peter M. J.; Affek, Hagit P.; Ivany, Linda C.; Houben, Alexander J. P.; Sijp, Willem P.; Sluijs, Appy; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark

2014-01-01

Paleoclimate studies suggest that increased global warmth during the Eocene epoch was greatly amplified at high latitudes, a state that climate models cannot fully reproduce. However, proxy estimates of Eocene near-Antarctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have produced widely divergent results at similar latitudes, with SSTs above 20 °C in the southwest Pacific contrasting with SSTs between 5 and 15 °C in the South Atlantic. Validation of this zonal temperature difference has been impeded by uncertainties inherent to the individual paleotemperature proxies applied at these sites. Here, we present multiproxy data from Seymour Island, near the Antarctic Peninsula, that provides well-constrained evidence for annual SSTs of 10–17 °C (1σ SD) during the middle and late Eocene. Comparison of the same paleotemperature proxy at Seymour Island and at the East Tasman Plateau indicate the presence of a large and consistent middle-to-late Eocene SST gradient of ∼7 °C between these two sites located at similar paleolatitudes. Intermediate-complexity climate model simulations suggest that enhanced oceanic heat transport in the South Pacific, driven by deep-water formation in the Ross Sea, was largely responsible for the observed SST gradient. These results indicate that very warm SSTs, in excess of 18 °C, did not extend uniformly across the Eocene southern high latitudes, and suggest that thermohaline circulation may partially control the distribution of high-latitude ocean temperatures in greenhouse climates. The pronounced zonal SST heterogeneity evident in the Eocene cautions against inferring past meridional temperature gradients using spatially limited data within given latitudinal bands. PMID:24753570

Acute Zonal Cone Photoreceptor Outer Segment Loss

PubMed Central

Sandhu, Harpal S.; Serrano, Leona W.; Traband, Anastasia; Lau, Marisa K.; Adamus, Grazyna; Avery, Robert A.

2017-01-01

Importance The diagnostic path presented narrows down the cause of acute vision loss to the cone photoreceptor outer segment and will refocus the search for the cause of similar currently idiopathic conditions. Objective To describe the structural and functional associations found in a patient with acute zonal occult photoreceptor loss. Design, Setting, and Participants A case report of an adolescent boy with acute visual field loss despite a normal fundus examination performed at a university teaching hospital. Main Outcomes and Measures Results of a complete ophthalmic examination, full-field flash electroretinography (ERG) and multifocal ERG, light-adapted achromatic and 2-color dark-adapted perimetry, and microperimetry. Imaging was performed with spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), near-infrared (NIR) and short-wavelength (SW) fundus autofluorescence (FAF), and NIR reflectance (REF). Results The patient was evaluated within a week of the onset of a scotoma in the nasal field of his left eye. Visual acuity was 20/20 OU, and color vision was normal in both eyes. Results of the fundus examination and of SW-FAF and NIR-FAF imaging were normal in both eyes, whereas NIR-REF imaging showed a region of hyporeflectance temporal to the fovea that corresponded with a dense relative scotoma noted on light-adapted static perimetry in the left eye. Loss in the photoreceptor outer segment detected by SD-OCT co-localized with an area of dense cone dysfunction detected on light-adapted perimetry and multifocal ERG but with near-normal rod-mediated vision according to results of 2-color dark-adapted perimetry. Full-field flash ERG findings were normal in both eyes. The outer nuclear layer and inner retinal thicknesses were normal. Conclusions and Relevance Localized, isolated cone dysfunction may represent the earliest photoreceptor abnormality or a distinct entity within the acute zonal occult outer retinopathy complex. Acute zonal occult outer retinopathy

A zonal wavefront sensor with multiple detector planes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, Biswajit; Boruah, Bosanta R.

2018-03-01

A conventional zonal wavefront sensor estimates the wavefront from the data captured in a single detector plane using a single camera. In this paper, we introduce a zonal wavefront sensor which comprises multiple detector planes instead of a single detector plane. The proposed sensor is based on an array of custom designed plane diffraction gratings followed by a single focusing lens. The laser beam whose wavefront is to be estimated is incident on the grating array and one of the diffracted orders from each grating is focused on the detector plane. The setup, by employing a beam splitter arrangement, facilitates focusing of the diffracted beams on multiple detector planes where multiple cameras can be placed. The use of multiple cameras in the sensor can offer several advantages in the wavefront estimation. For instance, the proposed sensor can provide superior inherent centroid detection accuracy that can not be achieved by the conventional system. It can also provide enhanced dynamic range and reduced crosstalk performance. We present here the results from a proof of principle experimental arrangement that demonstrate the advantages of the proposed wavefront sensing scheme.

Averaging principle for second-order approximation of heterogeneous models with homogeneous models.

PubMed

Fibich, Gadi; Gavious, Arieh; Solan, Eilon

2012-11-27

Typically, models with a heterogeneous property are considerably harder to analyze than the corresponding homogeneous models, in which the heterogeneous property is replaced by its average value. In this study we show that any outcome of a heterogeneous model that satisfies the two properties of differentiability and symmetry is O(ε(2)) equivalent to the outcome of the corresponding homogeneous model, where ε is the level of heterogeneity. We then use this averaging principle to obtain new results in queuing theory, game theory (auctions), and social networks (marketing).

Averaging principle for second-order approximation of heterogeneous models with homogeneous models

PubMed Central

Fibich, Gadi; Gavious, Arieh; Solan, Eilon

2012-01-01

Typically, models with a heterogeneous property are considerably harder to analyze than the corresponding homogeneous models, in which the heterogeneous property is replaced by its average value. In this study we show that any outcome of a heterogeneous model that satisfies the two properties of differentiability and symmetry is O(ɛ2) equivalent to the outcome of the corresponding homogeneous model, where ɛ is the level of heterogeneity. We then use this averaging principle to obtain new results in queuing theory, game theory (auctions), and social networks (marketing). PMID:23150569

Comparisons of observed seasonal climate features with a winter and summer numerical simulation produced with the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halem, M.; Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y.; Wu, M. L.; Godbole, R.; Herman, G.; Sud, Y.

1979-01-01

Results are presented from numerical simulations performed with the general circulation model (GCM) for winter and summer. The monthly mean simulated fields for each integration are compared with observed geographical distributions and zonal averages. In general, the simulated sea level pressure and upper level geopotential height field agree well with the observations. Well simulated features are the winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows, the summer southwestern U.S. low, the summer and winter oceanic subtropical highs in both hemispheres, and the summer upper level Tibetan high and Atlantic ridge. The surface and upper air wind fields in the low latitudes are in good agreement with the observations. The geographical distirbutions of the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance and of the precipitation rates over the oceans are well simulated, but not all of the intensities of these features are correct. Other comparisons are shown for precipitation along the ITCZ, rediation balance, zonally averaged temperatures and zonal winds, and poleward transports of momentum and sensible heat.

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2003-02-28] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2003-02-28] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2D)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2004-05-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

Present-day Antarctic climatology of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzeng, Ren-Yow; Bromwich, David H.; Parish, Thomas R.

1993-01-01

The ability of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1) with R 15 resolution to simulate the present-day climate of Antarctica was evaluated using the five-year seasonal cycle output produced by the CCM1 and comparing the model results with observed horizontal syntheses and point data. The results showed that the CCM1 with R 15 resolution can simulate to some extent the dynamics of Antarctic climate on the synoptic scale as well as some mesoscale features. The model can also simulate the phase and the amplitude of the annual and semiannual variation of the temperature, sea level pressure, and zonally averaged zonal (E-W) wind. The main shortcomings of the CCM1 model are associated with the model's anomalously large precipitation amounts at high latitudes, due to the tendency of the scheme to suppress negative moisture values.

A PRELIMINARY JUPITER MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hubbard, W. B.; Militzer, B.

In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen–helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second-more » and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen–helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity.« less

A model-averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Pohlmann, Karl F; Chapman, Jenny B; Pohll, Greg M; Reeves, Donald M

2010-01-01

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.

The Galileo probe Doppler wind experiment: Measurement of the deep zonal winds on Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, David H.; Pollack, James B.; Seiff, Alvin

1998-09-01

During its descent into the upper atmosphere of Jupiter, the Galileo probe transmitted data to the orbiter for 57.5 min. Accurate measurements of the probe radio frequency, driven by an ultrastable oscillator, allowed an accurate time history of the probe motions to be reconstructed. Removal from the probe radio frequency profile of known Doppler contributions, including the orbiter trajectory, the probe descent velocity, and the rotation of Jupiter, left a measurable frequency residual due to Jupiter's zonal winds, and microdynamical motion of the probe from spin, swing under the parachute, atmospheric turbulence, and aerodynamic buffeting. From the assumption of the dominance of the zonal horizontal winds, the frequency residuals were inverted and resulted in the first in situ measurements of the vertical profile of Jupiter's deep zonal winds. A number of error sources with the capability of corrupting the frequency measurements or the interpretation of the frequency residuals were considered using reasonable assumptions and calibrations from prelaunch and in-flight testing. It is found that beneath the cloud tops (about 700 mbar) the winds are prograde and rise rapidly to 170 m/s at 4 bars. Beyond 4 bars to the depth at which the link with the probe was lost, nearly 21 bars, the winds remain constant and strong. Corrections for the high temperatures encountered by the probe have recently been completed and provide no evidence of diminishing or strengthening of the zonal wind profile in the deeper regions explored by the Galileo probe.

Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

2018-02-01

There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Zonal wind indices to reconstruct United States winter precipitation during El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnham, D. J.; Steinschneider, S.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The highly discussed 2015/16 El Niño event, which many likened to the similarly strong 1997/98 El Niño event, led to precipitation impacts over the continental United States (CONUS) inconsistent with general expectations given past events and model-based forecasts. This presents a challenge for regional water managers and others who use seasonal precipitation forecasts who previously viewed El Niño events as times of enhanced confidence in seasonal water availability and flood risk forecasts. It is therefore useful to understand the extent to which wintertime CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by seasonal sea surface temperature heating patterns and the extent to which the precipitation is a product of natural variability. In this work, we define two seasonal indices based on the zonal wind field spanning from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic over CONUS that can explain El Niño precipitation variation spatially throughout CONUS over 11 historic El Niño events from 1950 to 2016. The indices reconstruct El Niño event wintertime (Jan-Mar) gridded precipitation over CONUS through cross-validated regression much better than the traditional ENSO sea surface temperature indices or other known modes of variability. Lastly, we show strong relationships between sea surface temperature patterns and the phases of the zonal wind indices, which in turn suggests that some of the disparate CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by different heating patterns. The primary contribution of this work is the identification of intermediate variables (in the form of zonal wind indices) that can facilitate further studies into the distinct hydroclimatic response to specific El Niño events.

Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William J.

1993-01-01

Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

Model-Averaged ℓ1 Regularization using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition

PubMed Central

Fraley, Chris; Percival, Daniel

2014-01-01

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an effective technique for addressing model uncertainty in variable selection problems. However, current BMA approaches have computational difficulty dealing with data in which there are many more measurements (variables) than samples. This paper presents a method for combining ℓ1 regularization and Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition techniques for BMA. By treating the ℓ1 regularization path as a model space, we propose a method to resolve the model uncertainty issues arising in model averaging from solution path point selection. We show that this method is computationally and empirically effective for regression and classification in high-dimensional datasets. We apply our technique in simulations, as well as to some applications that arise in genomics. PMID:25642001

Present-day secular variations in the zonal harmonics of earth's geopotential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Peltier, W. R.

1993-01-01

The mathematical formulation required for predicting secular variation in the geopotential is developed for the case of a spherically symmetric, self-gravitating, viscoelastic earth model and an arbitrary surface load which can include a gravitational self-consistent ocean loading component. The theory is specifically applied to predict the present-day secular variation in the zonal harmonics of the geopotenial arising from the surface mass loading associated with the late Pleistocene glacial cycles. A procedure is outlined in which predictions of the present-day geopotential signal due to the late Pleistocene glacial cycles may be used to derive bounds on the net present-day mass flux from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to the local oceans.

Three-dimensional assembly of tissue-engineered cartilage constructs results in cartilaginous tissue formation without retainment of zonal characteristics.

PubMed

Schuurman, W; Harimulyo, E B; Gawlitta, D; Woodfield, T B F; Dhert, W J A; van Weeren, P R; Malda, J

2016-04-01

Articular cartilage has limited regenerative capabilities. Chondrocytes from different layers of cartilage have specific properties, and regenerative approaches using zonal chondrocytes may yield better replication of the architecture of native cartilage than when using a single cell population. To obtain high seeding efficiency while still mimicking zonal architecture, cell pellets of expanded deep zone and superficial zone equine chondrocytes were seeded and cultured in two layers on poly(ethylene glycol)-terephthalate-poly(butylene terephthalate) (PEGT-PBT) scaffolds. Scaffolds seeded with cell pellets consisting of a 1:1 mixture of both cell sources served as controls. Parallel to this, pellets of superficial or deep zone chondrocytes, and combinations of the two cell populations, were cultured without the scaffold. Pellet cultures of zonal chondrocytes in scaffolds resulted in a high seeding efficiency and abundant cartilaginous tissue formation, containing collagen type II and glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) in all groups, irrespective of the donor (n = 3), zonal population or stratified scaffold-seeding approach used. However, whereas total GAG production was similar, the constructs retained significantly more GAG compared to pellet cultures, in which a high percentage of the produced GAGs were secreted into the culture medium. Immunohistochemistry for zonal markers did not show any differences between the conditions. We conclude that spatially defined pellet culture in 3D scaffolds is associated with high seeding efficiency and supports cartilaginous tissue formation, but did not result in the maintenance or restoration of the original zonal phenotype. The use of pellet-assembled constructs leads to a better retainment of newly produced GAGs than the use of pellet cultures alone. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zonal wavefront sensing using a grating array printed on a polyester film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, Biswajit; Kumar, Suraj; Boruah, Bosanta R.

2015-12-01

In this paper, we describe the development of a zonal wavefront sensor that comprises an array of binary diffraction gratings realized on a transparent sheet (i.e., polyester film) followed by a focusing lens and a camera. The sensor works in a manner similar to that of a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. The fabrication of the array of gratings is immune to certain issues associated with the fabrication of the lenslet array which is commonly used in zonal wavefront sensing. Besides the sensing method offers several important advantages such as flexible dynamic range, easy configurability, and option to enhance the sensing frame rate. Here, we have demonstrated the working of the proposed sensor using a proof-of-principle experimental arrangement.

Zonal wavefront sensing using a grating array printed on a polyester film

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pathak, Biswajit; Boruah, Bosanta R., E-mail: brboruah@iitg.ernet.in; Kumar, Suraj

2015-12-15

In this paper, we describe the development of a zonal wavefront sensor that comprises an array of binary diffraction gratings realized on a transparent sheet (i.e., polyester film) followed by a focusing lens and a camera. The sensor works in a manner similar to that of a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. The fabrication of the array of gratings is immune to certain issues associated with the fabrication of the lenslet array which is commonly used in zonal wavefront sensing. Besides the sensing method offers several important advantages such as flexible dynamic range, easy configurability, and option to enhance the sensing framemore » rate. Here, we have demonstrated the working of the proposed sensor using a proof-of-principle experimental arrangement.« less

Transonic Navier-Stokes wing solution using a zonal approach. Part 1: Solution methodology and code validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flores, J.; Gundy, K.; Gundy, K.; Gundy, K.; Gundy, K.; Gundy, K.

1986-01-01

A fast diagonalized Beam-Warming algorithm is coupled with a zonal approach to solve the three-dimensional Euler/Navier-Stokes equations. The computer code, called Transonic Navier-Stokes (TNS), uses a total of four zones for wing configurations (or can be extended to complete aircraft configurations by adding zones). In the inner blocks near the wing surface, the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations are solved, while in the outer two blocks the Euler equations are solved. The diagonal algorithm yields a speedup of as much as a factor of 40 over the original algorithm/zonal method code. The TNS code, in addition, has the capability to model wind tunnel walls. Transonic viscous solutions are obtained on a 150,000-point mesh for a NACA 0012 wing. A three-order-of-magnitude drop in the L2-norm of the residual requires approximately 500 iterations, which takes about 45 min of CPU time on a Cray-XMP processor. Simulations are also conducted for a different geometrical wing called WING C. All cases show good agreement with experimental data.

Zonal Acoustic Velocimetry in 30-cm, 60-cm, and 3-m Laboratory Models of the Outer Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, R.; Doan, M. N.; Adams, M. M.; Mautino, A. R.; Stone, D.; Lekic, V.; Lathrop, D. P.

2016-12-01

A knowledge of zonal flows and shear is key in understanding magnetic field dynamics in the Earth and laboratory experiments with Earth-like geometries. Traditional techniques for measuring fluid flow using visualization and particle tracking are not well-suited to liquid metal flows. This has led us to develop a flow measurement technique based on acoustic mode velocimetry adapted from helioseismology. As a first step prior to measurements in the liquid sodium experiments, we implement this technique in our 60-cm diameter spherical Couette experiment in air. To account for a more realistic experimental geometry, including deviations from spherical symmetry, we compute predicted frequencies of acoustic normal modes using the finite element method. The higher accuracy of the predicted frequencies allows the identification of over a dozen acoustic modes, and mode identification is further aided by the use of multiple microphones and by analyzing spectra together with those obtained at a variety of nearby Rossby numbers. Differences between the predicted and observed mode frequencies are caused by differences in flow patterns present in the experiment. We compare acoustic mode frequency splittings with theoretical predictions for stationary fluid and solid body flow condition with excellent agreement. We also use this technique to estimate the zonal shear in those experiments across a range of Rossby numbers. Finally, we report on initial attempts to use this in liquid sodium in the 3-meter diameter experiment and parallel experiments performed in water in the 30-cm diameter experiment.

Magnetic flux concentration and zonal flows in magnetorotational instability turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bai, Xue-Ning; Stone, James M., E-mail: xbai@cfa.harvard.edu

2014-11-20

Accretion disks are likely threaded by external vertical magnetic flux, which enhances the level of turbulence via the magnetorotational instability (MRI). Using shearing-box simulations, we find that such external magnetic flux also strongly enhances the amplitude of banded radial density variations known as zonal flows. Moreover, we report that vertical magnetic flux is strongly concentrated toward low-density regions of the zonal flow. Mean vertical magnetic field can be more than doubled in low-density regions, and reduced to nearly zero in high-density regions in some cases. In ideal MHD, the scale on which magnetic flux concentrates can reach a few diskmore » scale heights. In the non-ideal MHD regime with strong ambipolar diffusion, magnetic flux is concentrated into thin axisymmetric shells at some enhanced level, whose size is typically less than half a scale height. We show that magnetic flux concentration is closely related to the fact that the turbulent diffusivity of the MRI turbulence is anisotropic. In addition to a conventional Ohmic-like turbulent resistivity, we find that there is a correlation between the vertical velocity and horizontal magnetic field fluctuations that produces a mean electric field that acts to anti-diffuse the vertical magnetic flux. The anisotropic turbulent diffusivity has analogies to the Hall effect, and may have important implications for magnetic flux transport in accretion disks. The physical origin of magnetic flux concentration may be related to the development of channel flows followed by magnetic reconnection, which acts to decrease the mass-to-flux ratio in localized regions. The association of enhanced zonal flows with magnetic flux concentration may lead to global pressure bumps in protoplanetary disks that helps trap dust particles and facilitates planet formation.« less

Temporal Variability and Latitudinal Jets in Venus's Zonal Wind Profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Eliot F.; Bullock, M. A.; Tavenner, T.; Coyote, S.; Murphy, J. R.

2008-09-01

We have observed Venus's night hemisphere from NASA's IRTF (Infrared Telescope Facility) during each inferior conjunction since 2001 to quantify the motion of features in Venus's lower and middle cloud decks. We now present latitudinal profiles from 11 nights, obtained in May and July 2004, February 2006 and September 2007. In about 7 of the 11 nights there are zonal jets near 45N and/or -50S, with speed differentials of 5 to 15 m/s relative to the adjacent equatorward latitude bands. These jets may be evidence of episodic Hadley cell-type circulation. About half of the nights show relatively constant velocity profiles between the latitudes of 50N to 50S, suggesting that considerable mixing is taking place between latitudes. Our most remarkable result is the temporal variability in the median zonal speeds from day to day. For example, the median velocity near the equator increases from 53 to 65 m/s over the period from July 11 - 13, 2004, and increases from 65 to 82 m/s over the period from Sept. 9 - 11, 2007. These velocity changes are too great to be due to the tracking of clouds that are in the middle vs. lower cloud deck, nor can they be caused by clouds that occupy different altitudes; a velocity variation of 25% corresponds to an altitude difference of 15 km, based on vertical profiles of zonal windspeeds from tracking of Pioneer Venus and Venera descent probes. Fifteen km is greater than the expected variation in either cloud base. VIRTIS observations of Venus's southern hemisphere were also obtained in September 2007 and should be able to corroborate or contradict the observed variations. This work was supported by NASA's Planetary Astronomy and Atmospheres programs.

GI Joe or Average Joe? The impact of average-size and muscular male fashion models on men's and women's body image and advertisement effectiveness.

PubMed

Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Lee, Christina

2010-06-01

Increasing body size and shape diversity in media imagery may promote positive body image. While research has largely focused on female models and women's body image, men may also be affected by unrealistic images. We examined the impact of average-size and muscular male fashion models on men's and women's body image and perceived advertisement effectiveness. A sample of 330 men and 289 women viewed one of four advertisement conditions: no models, muscular, average-slim or average-large models. Men and women rated average-size models as equally effective in advertisements as muscular models. For men, exposure to average-size models was associated with more positive body image in comparison to viewing no models, but no difference was found in comparison to muscular models. Similar results were found for women. Internalisation of beauty ideals did not moderate these effects. These findings suggest that average-size male models can promote positive body image and appeal to consumers. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Study of Mesospheric Planetary Waves: Genesis and Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Talaat, E. L.; Porter, H. S.; Chan, K. L.

2003-01-01

In preparation for the measurements from the TIMED mission and coordinated ground based observations, we discuss results for the planetary waves (PWs) that appear in our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM). The present model accounts for a tropospheric heat source in the zonal mean (m = 0), which reproduces qualitatively the observed zonal jets near the tropopause and the accompanying reversal in the latitudinal temperature variations. We discuss the PWs that are solely generated internally, i.e., without the explicit excitation sources related to tropospheric convection or topography. Our analysis shows that PWs are not produced when the zonally averaged heat source into the atmosphere is artificially suppressed, and that the PWs generally are significantly weaker when the tropospheric source is not applied. Instabilities associated with the zonal mean temperature, pressure and wind fields, which still need to be explored, are exciting PWs that have amplitudes in the mesosphere comparable to those observed. Three classes of PWs are generated in the NSM. (1) Rossby waves, (2) Rossby gravity waves propagating westward at low latitudes, and (3) Eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. A survey of the PWs reveals that the largest wind amplitudes tend to occur below 80 km in the winter hemisphere, but above that altitude they occur in the summer hemisphere where the amplitudes can approach 50 meters per second. It is shown that the non-migrating tides in the mesosphere, generated by non-linear coupling between migrating tides and PWs, are significantly larger for the model with the tropospheric heat source.

The 4-5 day mode oscillation in zonal winds of Indian middle atmosphere during MONEX-79

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, R. S.; Mukherjee, B. K.; Indira, K.; Murty, B. V. R.

1985-12-01

In the early studies based on time series of balloon observations, the existence of 4 to 5 day period waves and 10 to 20 day wind fluctuations were found in the tropical lower stratosphere, and they are identified theoretically as the mixed Rossby-gravity wave and the Kelvin wave, respectively. On the basis of these studies, it was established that the vertically propagating equatorial waves play an important role in producing the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) in the mean zonal wind through the mechanism of wave-zonal interaction. These studies are mainly concentrated over the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Similar prominent wave disturbances have been observed over the region east of the Indian Ocean during a quasi-biennial oscillation. Zonal winds in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (10 to 20) km of the middle atmosphere over the Indian subcontinent may bear association with the activity of summer monsoon (June-September). Monsoon Experiment (MONEX-79) has provided upper air observations at Balasore (21 deg. 30 min.N; 85 deg. 56 min.E), during the peak of monsoon months July and August. A unique opportunity has, therefore, been provided to study the normal oscillations present in the zonal winds of lower middle atmosphere over India, which may have implication on large scale wave dynamics. This aspect is examined in the present study.

Bayesian block-diagonal variable selection and model averaging

PubMed Central

Papaspiliopoulos, O.; Rossell, D.

2018-01-01

Summary We propose a scalable algorithmic framework for exact Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in linear models under the assumption that the Gram matrix is block-diagonal, and as a heuristic for exploring the model space for general designs. In block-diagonal designs our approach returns the most probable model of any given size without resorting to numerical integration. The algorithm also provides a novel and efficient solution to the frequentist best subset selection problem for block-diagonal designs. Posterior probabilities for any number of models are obtained by evaluating a single one-dimensional integral, and other quantities of interest such as variable inclusion probabilities and model-averaged regression estimates are obtained by an adaptive, deterministic one-dimensional numerical integration. The overall computational cost scales linearly with the number of blocks, which can be processed in parallel, and exponentially with the block size, rendering it most adequate in situations where predictors are organized in many moderately-sized blocks. For general designs, we approximate the Gram matrix by a block-diagonal matrix using spectral clustering and propose an iterative algorithm that capitalizes on the block-diagonal algorithms to explore efficiently the model space. All methods proposed in this paper are implemented in the R library mombf. PMID:29861501

Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

2010-11-01

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940model averaging can tighten the credible upper limit, depending on prior assumptions.

An improved car-following model with two preceding cars' average speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Shao-Wei; Shi, Zhong-Ke

2015-01-01

To better describe cooperative car-following behaviors under intelligent transportation circumstances and increase roadway traffic mobility, the data of three successive following cars at a signalized intersection of Jinan in China were obtained and employed to explore the linkage between two preceding cars' average speed and car-following behaviors. The results indicate that two preceding cars' average velocity has significant effects on the following car's motion. Then an improved car-following model considering two preceding cars' average velocity was proposed and calibrated based on full velocity difference model and some numerical simulations were carried out to study how two preceding cars' average speed affected the starting process and the traffic flow evolution process with an initial small disturbance, the results indicate that the improved car-following model can qualitatively describe the impacts of two preceding cars' average velocity on traffic flow and that taking two preceding cars' average velocity into account in designing the control strategy for the cooperative adaptive cruise control system can improve the stability of traffic flow, suppress the appearance of traffic jams and increase the capacity of signalized intersections.

Direct phase measurement in zonal wavefront reconstruction using multidither coherent optical adaptive technique.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Milkie, Daniel E; Kerlin, Aaron; MacLennan, Bryan; Ji, Na

2014-01-27

In traditional zonal wavefront sensing for adaptive optics, after local wavefront gradients are obtained, the entire wavefront can be calculated by assuming that the wavefront is a continuous surface. Such an approach will lead to sub-optimal performance in reconstructing wavefronts which are either discontinuous or undersampled by the zonal wavefront sensor. Here, we report a new method to reconstruct the wavefront by directly measuring local wavefront phases in parallel using multidither coherent optical adaptive technique. This method determines the relative phases of each pupil segment independently, and thus produces an accurate wavefront for even discontinuous wavefronts. We implemented this method in an adaptive optical two-photon fluorescence microscopy and demonstrated its superior performance in correcting large or discontinuous aberrations.

Comments on "extended zonal dislocations mediating ? ? twinning in titanium"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kadiri, Haitham; Barrett, Christopher D.

2013-09-01

In a recent paper, Li et al. (Philos. Mag. 92 (2012) p.1006) used results of atomistic simulations to advance a growth mechanism of ? ? twinning in titanium based on the concept of two elementary twinning dislocations which nucleate and glide in pairs but separately and sequentially on two neighbouring planes. This new Comment was stimulated after A. Serra, D.J. Bacon and R.C. Pond privately raised concerns on this growth model to one of the present authors, H. El Kadiri, who This was a co-author of the original paper (Philos. Mag. 92 (2012) p.1006). We repeated the simulations and obtained nearly the same simulations results as Li et al. However, after re-analysing these results, we have concluded that the extended extrinsic zonal dislocation mechanism claimed to be that for twin growth in titanium is in fact false, confirming the accuracy of the Comment by Serra et al that results of Li and co-authors were misinterpreted.

A Method for Optimal Load Dispatch of a Multi-zone Power System with Zonal Exchange Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazarika, Durlav; Das, Ranjay

2018-04-01

This paper presented a method for economic generation scheduling of a multi-zone power system having inter zonal operational constraints. For this purpose, the generator rescheduling for a multi area power system having inter zonal operational constraints has been represented as a two step optimal generation scheduling problem. At first, the optimal generation scheduling has been carried out for the zone having surplus or deficient generation with proper spinning reserve using co-ordination equation. The power exchange required for the deficit zones and zones having no generation are estimated based on load demand and generation for the zone. The incremental transmission loss formulas for the transmission lines participating in the power transfer process among the zones are formulated. Using these, incremental transmission loss expression in co-ordination equation, the optimal generation scheduling for the zonal exchange has been determined. Simulation is carried out on IEEE 118 bus test system to examine the applicability and validity of the method.

An improved switching converter model using discrete and average techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortt, D. J.; Lee, F. C.

1982-01-01

The nonlinear modeling and analysis of dc-dc converters has been done by averaging and discrete-sampling techniques. The averaging technique is simple, but inaccurate as the modulation frequencies approach the theoretical limit of one-half the switching frequency. The discrete technique is accurate even at high frequencies, but is very complex and cumbersome. An improved model is developed by combining the aforementioned techniques. This new model is easy to implement in circuit and state variable forms and is accurate to the theoretical limit.

REVIEWS OF TOPICAL PROBLEMS: Generation of large-scale eddies and zonal winds in planetary atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onishchenko, O. G.; Pokhotelov, O. A.; Astafieva, N. M.

2008-06-01

The review deals with a theoretical description of the generation of zonal winds and vortices in a turbulent barotropic atmosphere. These large-scale structures largely determine the dynamics and transport processes in planetary atmospheres. The role of nonlinear effects on the formation of mesoscale vortical structures (cyclones and anticyclones) is examined. A new mechanism for zonal wind generation in planetary atmospheres is discussed. It is based on the parametric generation of convective cells by finite-amplitude Rossby waves. Weakly turbulent spectra of Rossby waves are considered. The theoretical results are compared to the results of satellite microwave monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere.

First middle-atmospheric zonal wind profile measurements with a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rüfenacht, R.; Kämpfer, N.; Murk, A.

2012-12-01

Today, the wind data for the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere are commonly extrapolated using models or calculated from measurements of the temperature field, but are not measured directly. Still, such measurements would allow direct observations of dynamic processes and thus provide a better understanding of the circulation in this altitude region where the zonal wind speed reaches a maximum. Observations of middle-atmospheric winds are also expected to provide deeper insight in the coupling between the upper and the lower atmosphere, especially in the case of sudden stratospheric warming events. Furthermore, as the local chemical composition of the middle atmosphere can be measured with high accuracy, wind data could be beneficial for the interpretation of the associated transport processes. In future, middle-atmospheric wind measurements could help to improve atmospheric circulation models. Aiming to contribute to the closing of this data gap the Institute of Applied Physics of the University of Bern built a new ground-based 142 GHz Doppler-spectro-radiometer with the acronym WIRA (WInd RAdiometer) specifically designed for the measurement of middle-atmospheric wind. Currently wind speeds in five levels between 30 and 79 km can be retrieved what makes WIRA the first instrument continuously measuring profiles of horizontal wind in this altitude range. On the altitude levels where our measurement can be compared to ECMWF very good agreement has been found in the long-term statistics, with WIRA = (0.98±0.02) × ECMWF + (0.44±0.91) m/s on average, as well as in short time structures with a duration of a few days. WIRA uses a passive double sideband heterodyne receiver together with a digital Fourier transform spectrometer for the data acquisition. A big advantage of the radiometric approach is that such instruments can also operate under adverse weather conditions and thus provide a continuous time series for the given location. The optics enables the

First middle-atmospheric zonal wind profile measurements with a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rüfenacht, Rolf; Kämpfer, Niklaus; Murk, Axel

2013-04-01

Today, the wind data for the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere are commonly extrapolated using models or calculated from measurements of the temperature field, but are not measured directly. Still, such measurements would allow direct observations of dynamic processes and thus provide a better understanding of the circulation in this altitude region where the zonal wind speed reaches a maximum. Observations of middle-atmospheric winds are also expected to provide deeper insight in the coupling between the upper and the lower atmosphere, especially in the case of sudden stratospheric warming events. Furthermore, as the local chemical composition of the middle atmosphere can be measured with high accuracy, wind data could be beneficial for the interpretation of the associated transport processes. In future, middle-atmospheric wind measurements could help to improve atmospheric circulation models. Aiming to contribute to the closing of this data gap the Institute of Applied Physics of the University of Bern built a new ground-based 142 GHz Doppler-spectro-radiometer with the acronym WIRA (WInd RAdiometer) specifically designed for the measurement of middle-atmospheric wind. Until now wind speeds in five levels between 30 and 79 km can be retrieved what made WIRA the first instrument continuously measuring profiles of horizontal wind in this altitude range. On the altitude levels where our measurement can be compared to ECMWF very good agreement has been found in the long-term statistics, with WIRA = (0.98±0.02) × ECMWF + (0.44±0.91) m/s on average, as well as in short time structures with a duration of a few days. WIRA uses a passive heterodyne receiver together with a digital Fourier transform spectrometer for the data acquisition. A big advantage of the radiometric approach is that such instruments can also operate under adverse weather conditions and thus provide a continuous time series for the given location. The optics enables the instrument to scan a

The effect of the equatorially symmetric zonal winds of Saturn on its gravitational field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Dali; Zhang, Keke; Schubert, Gerald; Anderson, John D.

2018-04-01

The penetration depth of Saturn’s cloud-level winds into its interior is unknown. A possible way of estimating the depth is through measurement of the effect of the winds on the planet’s gravitational field. We use a self-consistent perturbation approach to study how the equatorially symmetric zonal winds of Saturn contribute to its gravitational field. An important advantage of this approach is that the variation of its gravitational field solely caused by the winds can be isolated and identified because the leading-order problem accounts exactly for rotational distortion, thereby determining the irregular shape and internal structure of the hydrostatic Saturn. We assume that (i) the zonal winds are maintained by thermal convection in the form of non-axisymmetric columnar rolls and (ii) the internal structure of the winds, because of the Taylor-Proundman theorem, can be uniquely determined by the observed cloud-level winds. We calculate both the variation ΔJn , n = 2, 4, 6 … of the axisymmetric gravitational coefficients Jn caused by the zonal winds and the non-axisymmetric gravitational coefficients ΔJnm produced by the columnar rolls, where m is the azimuthal wavenumber of the rolls. We consider three different cases characterized by the penetration depth 0.36, R S, 0.2, R S and 0.1, R S, where R S is the equatorial radius of Saturn at the 1-bar pressure level. We find that the high-degree gravitational coefficient (J 12 + ΔJ 12) is dominated, in all the three cases, by the effect of the zonal flow with |ΔJ 12/J 12| > 100% and that the size of the non-axisymmetric coefficients ΔJ mn directly reflects the depth and scale of the flow taking place in the Saturnian interior.

Daily estimates of the migrating tide and zonal mean temperature in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere derived from SABER data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortland, David A.

2017-04-01

Satellites provide a global view of the structure in the fields that they measure. In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, the dominant features in these fields at low zonal wave number are contained in the zonal mean, quasi-stationary planetary waves, and tide components. Due to the nature of the satellite sampling pattern, stationary, diurnal, and semidiurnal components are aliased and spectral methods are typically unable to separate the aliased waves over short time periods. This paper presents a data processing scheme that is able to recover the daily structure of these waves and the zonal mean state. The method is validated by using simulated data constructed from a mechanistic model, and then applied to Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements. The migrating diurnal tide extracted from SABER temperatures for 2009 has a seasonal variability with peak amplitude (20 K at 95 km) in February and March and minimum amplitude (less than 5 K at 95 km) in early June and early December. Higher frequency variability includes a change in vertical structure and amplitude during the major stratospheric warming in January. The migrating semidiurnal tide extracted from SABER has variability on a monthly time scale during January through March, minimum amplitude in April, and largest steady amplitudes from May through September. Modeling experiments were performed that show that much of the variability on seasonal time scales in the migrating tides is due to changes in the mean flow structure and the superposition of the tidal responses to water vapor heating in the troposphere and ozone heating in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

An Approach to Average Modeling and Simulation of Switch-Mode Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramovitz, A.

2011-01-01

This paper suggests a pedagogical approach to teaching the subject of average modeling of PWM switch-mode power electronics systems through simulation by general-purpose electronic circuit simulators. The paper discusses the derivation of PSPICE/ORCAD-compatible average models of the switch-mode power stages, their software implementation, and…

Cycle-averaged dynamics of a periodically driven, closed-loop circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heldt, T.; Chang, J. L.; Chen, J. J. S.; Verghese, G. C.; Mark, R. G.

2005-01-01

Time-varying elastance models have been used extensively in the past to simulate the pulsatile nature of cardiovascular waveforms. Frequently, however, one is interested in dynamics that occur over longer time scales, in which case a detailed simulation of each cardiac contraction becomes computationally burdensome. In this paper, we apply circuit-averaging techniques to a periodically driven, closed-loop, three-compartment recirculation model. The resultant cycle-averaged model is linear and time invariant, and greatly reduces the computational burden. It is also amenable to systematic order reduction methods that lead to further efficiencies. Despite its simplicity, the averaged model captures the dynamics relevant to the representation of a range of cardiovascular reflex mechanisms. c2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Initial Conditions in the Averaging Cognitive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noventa, S.; Massidda, D.; Vidotto, G.

2010-01-01

The initial state parameters s[subscript 0] and w[subscript 0] are intricate issues of the averaging cognitive models in Information Integration Theory. Usually they are defined as a measure of prior information (Anderson, 1981; 1982) but there are no general rules to deal with them. In fact, there is no agreement as to their treatment except in…

Zonal-Mean Temperature Variations Inferred from SABER Measurements on TIMED Compared with UARS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Frank T.; Mayr, Hans; Russell, James; Mlynczak, Marty; Reber, Carl A.

2005-01-01

In the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM, Mayr et al., 2003), small-scale gravity waves propagating in the north/south direction can generate zonal mean (m = 0) meridional wind oscillations with periods between 2 and 4 months. These oscillations tend to be confined to low latitudes and have been interpreted to be the meridional counterpart of the wave-driven Quasi Biennial Oscillation in the zonal circulation. Wave driven meridional winds across the equator should generate, due to dynamical heating and cooling, temperature oscillations with opposite phase in the two hemispheres. We have analyzed SABER temperature measurements in the altitude range between 55 and 95 km to investigate the existence such variations. Because there are also strong tidal signatures (up to approximately 20 K) in the data, our algorithm estimates both mean values and tides together from the data. Based on SABER temperature data, the intra-annual variations with periods between 2 and 4 months can have amplitudes up to 5 K or more, depending on the altitude. Their amplitudes are in qualitative agreement with those inferred Erom UARS data (from different years). The SABER temperature variations also reveal pronounced hemispherical asymmetries, which are qualitatively consistent with wave driven meridional wind oscillations across the equator. Oscillations with similar periods have been seen in the meridional winds based on UARS data (Huang and Reber, 2003).

Waif goodbye! Average-size female models promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

PubMed

Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Lee, Christina

2011-10-01

Despite consensus that exposure to media images of thin fashion models is associated with poor body image and disordered eating behaviours, few attempts have been made to enact change in the media. This study sought to investigate an effective alternative to current media imagery, by exploring the advertising effectiveness of average-size female fashion models, and their impact on the body image of both women and men. A sample of 171 women and 120 men were assigned to one of three advertisement conditions: no models, thin models and average-size models. Women and men rated average-size models as equally effective in advertisements as thin and no models. For women with average and high levels of internalisation of cultural beauty ideals, exposure to average-size female models was associated with a significantly more positive body image state in comparison to exposure to thin models and no models. For men reporting high levels of internalisation, exposure to average-size models was also associated with a more positive body image state in comparison to viewing thin models. These findings suggest that average-size female models can promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

CALL FOR PAPERS: Special cluster issue on `Experimental studies of zonal flow and turbulence'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itoh, S.-I.

2005-07-01

Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion (PPCF) invites submissions on the topic of `Experimental studies of zonal flow and turbulence', for consideration for a special topical cluster of articles to be published early in 2006. The topical cluster will be published in an issue of PPCF, combined with regular articles. The Guest Editor for the special cluster will be S-I Itoh, Kyushu University, Japan. There has been remarkable progress in the area of structure formation by turbulence. One of the highlights has been the physics of zonal flow and drift wave turbulence in toroidal plasmas. Extensive theoretical as well as computational studies have revealed the various mechanisms in turbulence and zonal flows. At the same time, experimental research on the zonal flow, geodesic acoustic modes and generation of global electric field by turbulence has evolved rapidly. Fast growth in reports of experimental results has stimulated further efforts to develop increased knowledge and systematic understanding. Each paper considered for the special cluster should describe the present research status and new scientific knowledge/results from the authors on experimental studies of zonal flow, geodesic acoustic modes and generation of electric field by turbulence (including studies of Reynolds-Maxwell stresses, etc). Manuscripts submitted to this special cluster in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion will be refereed according to the normal criteria and procedures of the journal. The Guest Editor guides the progress of the cluster from the initial open call, through the standard refereeing process, to publication. To be considered for inclusion in the special cluster, articles must be submitted by 2 September 2005 and must clearly state `for inclusion in the Turbulent Plasma Cluster'. Articles submitted after this deadline may not be included in the cluster issue but may be published in a later issue of the journal. Please submit your manuscript electronically via our web site at www

Self-Organization of Zonal Jets in Outer Planet Atmospheres: Uranus and Neptune

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedson, A. James

1997-01-01

The statistical mechnical theory of a two-dimensional Euler fluid is appleid for the first time to explore the spontaneous self-oganization of zonal jets in outer planet atmospheres. Globally conserved integralls of motion are found to play a central role in defining jet structure.

Observed variability in the upper layers at the Equator, 90°E in the Indian Ocean during 2001-2008, 1: zonal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Horii, T.; Masumoto, Y.; Mizuno, K.

2017-08-01

The observed variability of zonal currents (ZC) at the Equator, 90°E shows a strong seasonal cycle in the near-surface 40-350 m water column with periodic east-west reversals most pronounced at semiannual frequency. Superposed on this, a strong intraseasonal variability of 30-90 day periodicity is also prominently seen in the near-surface layer (40-80 m) almost throughout the year with the only exception of February-March. An eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is present in the depth range of 80-160 m during March-April and October-November. The observed intraseasonal variability in the near-surface layer is primarily determined by the equatorial zonal westerly wind bursts (WWBs) through local frictional coupling between the zonal flow in the surface layer and surface zonal winds and shows large interannual variability. The eastward flowing EUC maintained by the ZPG set up by the east-west slope of the thermocline remotely controlled by the zonal wind (ZW) and zonally propagating wave fields also shows significant interannual variability. This observed variability on interannual time scales appears to be controlled by the corresponding variability in the alongshore winds off the Somalia coast during the preceding boreal winter, the ZW field along the equator, and the associated zonally propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. The salinity induced vertical stratification observed in the near-surface layer through barrier layer thickness (BLT) effects also shows a significant influence on the ZC field on intraseasonal time scale. Interestingly, among all the 8 years (2001-2008), relatively weaker annual cycle is seen in both ZC in the 40-350 m water column and boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) only during 2001 and 2008 along the equator caused through propagating wave dynamics.

Isolation of Intact Chloroplasts from Euglena gracilis by Zonal Centrifugation 1

PubMed Central

Vasconcelos, Aurea; Pollack, Marilyn; Mendiola, Leticia R.; Hoffmann, H.-P.; Brown, D. H.; Price, C. A.

1971-01-01

Chloroplasts were separated from Euglena gracilis by zonal centrifugation at low speed in density gradients of Ficoll or dextran. The chloroplasts were intact by the criteria of ultrastructure and their content of ribulose diphosphate carboxylase and soluble protein. The chloroplasts also contained ribosomes and ribosomal RNA uncontaminated by the corresponding cytoplasmic particles. Images PMID:16657599

A preliminary comparison of Na lidar and meteor radar zonal winds during geomagnetic quiet and disturbed conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore Kumar, G.; Nesse Tyssøy, H.; Williams, Bifford P.

2018-03-01

We investigate the possibility that sufficiently large electric fields and/or ionization during geomagnetic disturbed conditions may invalidate the assumptions applied in the retrieval of neutral horizontal winds from meteor and/or lidar measurements. As per our knowledge, the possible errors in the wind estimation have never been reported. In the present case study, we have been using co-located meteor radar and sodium resonance lidar zonal wind measurements over Andenes (69.27°N, 16.04°E) during intense substorms in the declining phase of the January 2005 solar proton event (21-22 January 2005). In total, 14 h of measurements are available for the comparison, which covers both quiet and disturbed conditions. For comparison, the lidar zonal wind measurements are averaged over the same time and altitude as the meteor radar wind measurements. High cross correlations (∼0.8) are found in all height regions. The discrepancies can be explained in light of differences in the observational volumes of the two instruments. Further, we extended the comparison to address the electric field and/or ionization impact on the neutral wind estimation. For the periods of low ionization, the neutral winds estimated with both instruments are quite consistent with each other. During periods of elevated ionization, comparatively large differences are noticed at the highermost altitude, which might be due to the electric field and/or ionization impact on the wind estimation. At present, one event is not sufficient to make any firm conclusion. Further study with more co-located measurements are needed to test the statistical significance of the result.

A preliminary comparison of Na lidar and meteor radar zonal winds during quiet and sub-storm conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandhi, Kishore Kumar; Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde; Williams, Bifford P.; Stober, Gunter

2017-04-01

It is speculated that sufficiently large electric fields during geomagnetic disturbed conditions may decouple the meteor trail electron motions from the background neutral winds and leads to erroneous neutral wind estimation. As per our knowledge, the potential errors have never been reported. In the present case study, we have been using co-located meteor radar and sodium resonance lidar zonal wind measurements over Andenes (69.27oN,16.04oE) during intense sub storms in the declining phase of Jan 2005 solar proton event (21-22 Jan 2005). In total 14 hours of continuous measurements are available for the comparison, which covers both quiet and disturbed conditions. For comparison, the lidar zonal winds are averaged in meteor radar time and height bins. High cross correlations (˜0.8) are found in all height regions. The discrepancies can be explained in the light of differences in the observational volumes of the two instruments. Further, we extended the comparison to address the ionization impact on the meteor radar winds. For quiet hours, the observed meteor radar winds are quite consistent with lidar winds. While during the disturbed hours comparatively large differences are noticed at higher most altitudes. This might be due to ionization impact on meteor radar winds. At the present one event is not sufficient to make any consolidate conclusion. However, at least from this study we found some effect on the neutral wind measurements for the meteor radar. Further study with more co-located measurements are needed to test statistical significance of the result.

Using Bayes Model Averaging for Wind Power Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preede Revheim, Pål; Beyer, Hans Georg

2014-05-01

For operational purposes predictions of the forecasts of the lumped output of groups of wind farms spread over larger geographic areas will often be of interest. A naive approach is to make forecasts for each individual site and sum them up to get the group forecast. It is however well documented that a better choice is to use a model that also takes advantage of spatial smoothing effects. It might however be the case that some sites tends to more accurately reflect the total output of the region, either in general or for certain wind directions. It will then be of interest giving these a greater influence over the group forecast. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical post-processing method for producing probabilistic forecasts from ensembles. Raftery et al. [1] show how BMA can be used for statistical post processing of forecast ensembles, producing PDFs of future weather quantities. The BMA predictive PDF of a future weather quantity is a weighted average of the ensemble members' PDFs, where the weights can be interpreted as posterior probabilities and reflect the ensemble members' contribution to overall forecasting skill over a training period. In Revheim and Beyer [2] the BMA procedure used in Sloughter, Gneiting and Raftery [3] were found to produce fairly accurate PDFs for the future mean wind speed of a group of sites from the single sites wind speeds. However, when the procedure was attempted applied to wind power it resulted in either problems with the estimation of the parameters (mainly caused by longer consecutive periods of no power production) or severe underestimation (mainly caused by problems with reflecting the power curve). In this paper the problems that arose when applying BMA to wind power forecasting is met through two strategies. First, the BMA procedure is run with a combination of single site wind speeds and single site wind power production as input. This solves the problem with longer consecutive periods where the input data

Partially-Averaged Navier Stokes Model for Turbulence: Implementation and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girimaji, Sharath S.; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.

2005-01-01

Partially-averaged Navier Stokes (PANS) is a suite of turbulence closure models of various modeled-to-resolved scale ratios ranging from Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) to Navier-Stokes (direct numerical simulations). The objective of PANS, like hybrid models, is to resolve large scale structures at reasonable computational expense. The modeled-to-resolved scale ratio or the level of physical resolution in PANS is quantified by two parameters: the unresolved-to-total ratios of kinetic energy (f(sub k)) and dissipation (f(sub epsilon)). The unresolved-scale stress is modeled with the Boussinesq approximation and modeled transport equations are solved for the unresolved kinetic energy and dissipation. In this paper, we first present a brief discussion of the PANS philosophy followed by a description of the implementation procedure and finally perform preliminary evaluation in benchmark problems.

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agarwal, G. C.; Goodarzi, S. M.; Oneill, W. D.; Gottlieb, G. L.

1981-01-01

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Bruce G.

The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

The effects of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, S. H.; Curran, R. J.; Ohring, G.

1979-01-01

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the climate sensitivity to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. The model is based on a two-level quasi-geostrophic zonally averaged annual mean model. One of the evaporation parameterizations tested is a nonlinear formulation with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface. The other is the linear formulation with the Bowen ratio essentially determined by the prescribed linear coefficient.

On non-local energy transfer via zonal flow in the Dimits shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St-Onge, Denis A.

2017-10-01

The two-dimensional Terry-Horton equation is shown to exhibit the Dimits shift when suitably modified to capture both the nonlinear enhancement of zonal/drift-wave interactions and the existence of residual Rosenbluth-Hinton states. This phenomenon persists through numerous simplifications of the equation, including a quasilinear approximation as well as a four-mode truncation. It is shown that the use of an appropriate adiabatic electron response, for which the electrons are not affected by the flux-averaged potential, results in an nonlinearity that can efficiently transfer energy non-locally to length scales of the order of the sound radius. The size of the shift for the nonlinear system is heuristically calculated and found to be in excellent agreement with numerical solutions. The existence of the Dimits shift for this system is then understood as an ability of the unstable primary modes to efficiently couple to stable modes at smaller scales, and the shift ends when these stable modes eventually destabilize as the density gradient is increased. This non-local mechanism of energy transfer is argued to be generically important even for more physically complete systems.

On non-local energy transfer via zonal flow in the Dimits shift

DOE PAGES

St-Onge, Denis A.

2017-10-10

The two-dimensional Terry–Horton equation is shown to exhibit the Dimits shift when suitably modified to capture both the nonlinear enhancement of zonal/drift-wave interactions and the existence of residual Rosenbluth–Hinton states. This phenomenon persists through numerous simplifications of the equation, including a quasilinear approximation as well as a four-mode truncation. It is shown that the use of an appropriate adiabatic electron response, for which the electrons are not affected by the flux-averaged potential, results in anmore » $$\\boldsymbol{E}\\times \\boldsymbol{B}$$ nonlinearity that can efficiently transfer energy non-locally to length scales of the order of the sound radius. The size of the shift for the nonlinear system is heuristically calculated and found to be in excellent agreement with numerical solutions. The existence of the Dimits shift for this system is then understood as an ability of the unstable primary modes to efficiently couple to stable modes at smaller scales, and the shift ends when these stable modes eventually destabilize as the density gradient is increased. This non-local mechanism of energy transfer is argued to be generically important even for more physically complete systems.« less

Zonal flow generation in inertial confinement fusion implosions

DOE PAGES

Peterson, J. L.; Humbird, K. D.; Field, J. E.; ...

2017-03-06

A supervised machine learning algorithm trained on a multi-petabyte dataset of inertial confinement fusion simulations has identified a class of implosions that robustly achieve high yield, even in the presence of drive variations and hydrodynamic perturbations. These implosions are purposefully driven with a time-varying asymmetry, such that coherent flow generation during hotspot stagnation forces the capsule to self-organize into an ovoid, a shape that appears to be more resilient to shell perturbations than spherical designs. Here this new class of implosions, whose configurations are reminiscent of zonal flows in magnetic fusion devices, may offer a path to robust inertial fusion.

Zonal flow generation in inertial confinement fusion implosions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, J. L.; Humbird, K. D.; Field, J. E.

A supervised machine learning algorithm trained on a multi-petabyte dataset of inertial confinement fusion simulations has identified a class of implosions that robustly achieve high yield, even in the presence of drive variations and hydrodynamic perturbations. These implosions are purposefully driven with a time-varying asymmetry, such that coherent flow generation during hotspot stagnation forces the capsule to self-organize into an ovoid, a shape that appears to be more resilient to shell perturbations than spherical designs. Here this new class of implosions, whose configurations are reminiscent of zonal flows in magnetic fusion devices, may offer a path to robust inertial fusion.

Drug policing assemblages: Repressive drug policies and the zonal banning of drug users in Denmark's club land.

PubMed

Søgaard, Thomas F; Houborg, Esben; Pedersen, Michael M

2017-03-01

Zonal banning of disorderly and intoxicated young people has moved to centre stage in debates about nightlife governance. Whereas existing research has primarily focused on the use of zonal banning orders to address problems of alcohol-related harm and disorder, this article highlights how zonal banning is also used to target drug-using clubbers in Denmark. Based on ethnographic observations and interviews with nightlife control agents in two Danish cities, the article aims to provide new insights into how the enforcement of national drug policies on drug-using clubbers, is shaped by plural nightlife policing complexes. The paper demonstrates how the policing of drug-using clubbers is a growing priority for both police and private security agents. The article also demonstrates how the enforcement of zonal bans on drug-using clubbers involves complex collaborative relations between police, venue owners and private security agents. The paper argues that a third-party policing perspective combined with assemblage theory is useful for highlighting how the enforcement of national drug policies and nightlife banning systems is shaped by their embeddedness in local 'drug policing assemblages' characterized by inter-agency relation-building, the creative combination of public and private (legal) resources and internal power struggles. It also provides evidence of how drug policing assemblages give rise to many different, and often surprising, forms of jurisdiction involving divergent performances of spaces-, objects- and authorities of governance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of Surface Emissions to the Zonal Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and Carbon Monoxide for November 2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, K. W.; Jones, D.; Logan, J.; Worden, H.; Boersma, F.; Chang, R.; Kulawik, S.; Osterman, G.; Worden, J.

2008-01-01

The chemical and dynamical processes governing the zonal variability of tropical tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide are investigated for November 2004 using satellite observations, in-situ measurements, and chemical transport models in conjunction with inverse-estimated surface emissions. Vertical ozone profile estimates from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and ozone sonde measurements from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network show the so called zonal 'wave-one' pattern, which is characterized by peak ozone concentrations (70-80 ppb) centered over the Atlantic, as well as elevated concentrations of ozone over Indonesia and Australia (60-70 ppb) in the lower troposphere. Observational evidence from TES CO vertical profiles and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 columns point to regional surface emissions as an important contributor to the elevated ozone over Indonesia. This contribution is investigated with the GEOS-Chem chemistry and transport model using surface emission estimates derived from an optimal inverse model, which was constrained by TES and Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) CO profiles (Jones et al., 2007). These a posteriori estimates, which were over a factor of 2 greater than climatological emissions, reduced differences between GEOS-Chem and TES ozone observations by 30-40% and led to changes in GEOS-Chem upper tropospheric ozone of up to 40% over Indonesia. The remaining residual differences can be explained in part by upper tropospheric ozone produced from lightning NOx in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, model simulations from GEOS-Chem indicate that ozone over Indonesian/Australian is more sensitive to changes in surface emissions of NOx than ozone over the tropical Atlantic.

Continuous versus discontinuous albedo representations in a simple diffusive climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmons, P. A.; Griffel, D. H.

1988-07-01

A one-dimensional annually and zonally averaged energy-balance model, with diffusive meridional heat transport and including icealbedo feedback, is considered. This type of model is found to be very sensitive to the form of albedo used. The solutions for a discontinuous step-function albedo are compared to those for a more realistic smoothly varying albedo. The smooth albedo gives a closer fit to present conditions, but the discontinuous form gives a better representation of climates in earlier epochs.

Zero potential vorticity envelopes for the zonal-mean velocity of the Venus/Titan atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, Michael; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Zhou, Wei

1994-01-01

The diagnostic analysis of numerical simulations of the Venus/Titan wind regime reveals an overlooked constraint upon the latitudinal structure of their zonal-mean angular momentum. The numerical experiments, as well as the limited planetary observations, are approximately consistent with the hypothesis that within the latitudes bounded by the wind maxima the total Ertel potential vorticity associated with the zonal-mean motion is approximately well mixed with respect to the neutral equatorial value for a stable circulation. The implied latitudinal profile of angular momentum is of the form M equal to or less than M(sub e)(cos lambda)(exp 2/Ri), where lambda is the latitude and Ri the local Richardson number, generally intermediate between the two extremes of uniform angular momentum (Ri approaches infinity) and uniform angular velocity (Ri = 1). The full range of angular momentum profile variation appears to be realized within the observed meridional - vertical structure of the Venus atmosphere, at least crudely approaching the implied relationship between stratification and zonal velocity there. While not itself indicative of a particular eddy mechanism or specific to atmospheric superrotation, the zero potential vorticity (ZPV) constraint represents a limiting bound for the eddy - mean flow adjustment of a neutrally stable baroclinic circulation and may be usefully applied to the diagnostic analysis of future remote sounding and in situ measurements from planetary spacecraft.

Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

2017-12-01

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

Creating "Intelligent" Climate Model Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, N. C.; Taylor, P. C.

2014-12-01

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

Three dimensional model calculations of the global dispersion of high speed aircraft exhaust and implications for stratospheric ozone loss

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.; Jackman, Charles H.; Weaver, Clark J.

1994-01-01

Two-dimensional (zonally averaged) photochemical models are commonly used for calculations of ozone changes due to various perturbations. These include calculating the ozone change expected as a result of change in the lower stratospheric composition due to the exhaust of a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere. However, zonal asymmetries are anticipated to be important to this sort of calculation. The aircraft are expected to be restricted from flying over land at supersonic speed due to sonic booms, thus the pollutant source will not be zonally symmetric. There is loss of pollutant through stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but these processes are spatially and temporally inhomogeneous. Asymmetry in the pollutant distribution contributes to the uncertainty in the ozone changes calculated with two dimensional models. Pollutant distributions for integrations of at least 1 year of continuous pollutant emissions along flight corridors are calculated using a three dimensional chemistry and transport model. These distributions indicate the importance of asymmetry in the pollutant distributions to evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on ozone. The implications of such pollutant asymmetries to assessment calculations are discussed, considering both homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions.

Bootstrap-after-bootstrap model averaging for reducing model uncertainty in model selection for air pollution mortality studies.

PubMed

Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

2010-01-01

Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single "best" model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap model-averaging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike's information criterion (AIC)]. Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOT and BMA. Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM.

Prediction of Rare Transitions in Planetary Atmosphere Dynamics Between Attractors with Different Number of Zonal Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchet, F.; Laurie, J.; Zaboronski, O.

2012-12-01

We describe transitions between attractors with either one, two or more zonal jets in models of turbulent atmosphere dynamics. Those transitions are extremely rare, and occur over times scales of centuries or millennia. They are extremely hard to observe in direct numerical simulations, because they require on one hand an extremely good resolution in order to simulate accurately the turbulence and on the other hand simulations performed over an extremely long time. Those conditions are usually not met together in any realistic models. However many examples of transitions between turbulent attractors in geophysical flows are known to exist (paths of the Kuroshio, Earth's magnetic field reversal, atmospheric flows, and so on). Their study through numerical computations is inaccessible using conventional means. We present an alternative approach, based on instanton theory and large deviations. Instanton theory provides a way to compute (both numerically and theoretically) extremely rare transitions between turbulent attractors. This tool, developed in field theory, and justified in some cases through the large deviation theory in mathematics, can be applied to models of turbulent atmosphere dynamics. It provides both new theoretical insights and new type of numerical algorithms. Those algorithms can predict transition histories and transition rates using numerical simulations run over only hundreds of typical model dynamical time, which is several order of magnitude lower than the typical transition time. We illustrate the power of those tools in the framework of quasi-geostrophic models. We show regimes where two or more attractors coexist. Those attractors corresponds to turbulent flows dominated by either one or more zonal jets similar to midlatitude atmosphere jets. Among the trajectories connecting two non-equilibrium attractors, we determine the most probable ones. Moreover, we also determine the transition rates, which are several of magnitude larger than a

Relativistic satellite orbits: central body with higher zonal harmonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schanner, Maximilian; Soffel, Michael

2018-06-01

Satellite orbits around a central body with arbitrary zonal harmonics are considered in a relativistic framework. Our starting point is the relativistic Celestial Mechanics based upon the first post-Newtonian approximation to Einstein's theory of gravity as it has been formulated by Damour et al. (Phys Rev D 43:3273-3307, 1991; 45:1017-1044, 1992; 47:3124-3135, 1993; 49:618-635, 1994). Since effects of order (GM/c^2R) × J_k with k ≥ 2 for the Earth are very small (of order 7 × 10^{-10} × J_k) we consider an axially symmetric body with arbitrary zonal harmonics and a static external gravitational field. In such a field the explicit J_k/c^2-terms (direct terms) in the equations of motion for the coordinate acceleration of a satellite are treated first with first-order perturbation theory. The derived perturbation theoretical results of first order have been checked by purely numerical integrations of the equations of motion. Additional terms of the same order result from the interaction of the Newtonian J_k-terms with the post-Newtonian Schwarzschild terms (relativistic terms related to the mass of the central body). These `mixed terms' are treated by means of second-order perturbation theory based on the Lie-series method (Hori-Deprit method). Here we concentrate on the secular drifts of the ascending node <{\\dot{Ω }}> and argument of the pericenter <{\\dot{ω }}>. Finally orders of magnitude are given and discussed.

Zonal Rate Model for Axial and Radial Flow Membrane Chromatography. Part I: Knowledge Transfer Across Operating Conditions and Scales

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Pranay; Vahedipour, Kaveh; Lin, Min; Vogel, Jens H; Haynes, Charles A; von Lieres, Eric

2013-01-01

The zonal rate model (ZRM) has previously been applied for analyzing the performance of axial flow membrane chromatography capsules by independently determining the impacts of flow and binding related non-idealities on measured breakthrough curves. In the present study, the ZRM is extended to radial flow configurations, which are commonly used at larger scales. The axial flow XT5 capsule and the radial flow XT140 capsule from Pall are rigorously analyzed under binding and non-binding conditions with bovine serum albumin (BSA) as test molecule. The binding data of this molecule is much better reproduced by the spreading model, which hypothesizes different binding orientations, than by the well-known Langmuir model. Moreover, a revised cleaning protocol with NaCl instead of NaOH and minimizing the storage time has been identified as most critical for quantitatively reproducing the measured breakthrough curves. The internal geometry of both capsules is visualized by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The flow in the external hold-up volumes of the XT140 capsule was found to be more homogeneous as in the previously studied XT5 capsule. An attempt for model-based scale-up was apparently impeded by irregular pleat structures in the used XT140 capsule, which might lead to local variations in the linear velocity through the membrane stack. However, the presented approach is universal and can be applied to different capsules. The ZRM is shown to potentially help save valuable material and time, as the experiments required for model calibration are much cheaper than the predicted large-scale experiment at binding conditions. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2013; 110: 1129–1141. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:23097218

Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin

2016-10-01

Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

Thermal zonal winds in the Venus mesosphere from the Venus Express temperature soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccialli, Arianna; Titov, Dmitri; Tellmann, Silvia; Migliorini, Alessandra; Read, Peter; Grassi, Davide; Paetzold, Martin; Haeusler, Bernd; Piccioni, Giuseppe; Drossart, Pierre

The Venus mesosphere (60-100 km altitude) is a transition region characterized by extremely complex dynamics: strong retrograde zonal winds dominate in the troposphere and lower meso-sphere while a solar-antisolar circulation can be observed in the upper mesosphere. The super-rotation extends from the surface up to the cloud top (˜65 km altitude) with wind speeds of only a few meters per second near the surface and reaching a maximum value of ˜100 m s-1 at cloud top, corresponding to a rotation period of ˜4 Earth days (˜60 times faster than Venus itself). The solar-antisolar circulation is driven by the day-night contrast in solar heating, and occurs above 110 km altitude with speeds of 120 m s-1 . The processes responsible for maintain-ing the zonal super-rotation in the lower atmosphere and its transition to the solar-antisolar circulation in the upper atmosphere are still poorly understood (Schubert et al.,2007). Different techniques have been used to obtain direct observations of wind at various altitudes: tracking of clouds in ultraviolet (UV) and near infrared (NIR) images give information on wind speeds at the cloud top (Moissl et al., 2009; Sanchez-Lavega et al., 2008) and within the clouds (˜47 km, ˜61 km) (Sanchez-Lavega et al., 2008) while ground-based measurements of Doppler shifts in the CO2 band at 10 µm (Sornig et al., 2008) and in several CO millimiter lines (Rengel et al., 2008) provide wind speeds above the clouds up to ˜110 km altitude. The deep atmosphere from the surface up to the cloud top has been investigated through the Doppler tracking of descent probes and balloons (Counselman et al., 1980; Kerzhanovich and Limaye, 1985). In the mesosphere, between 45-85 km of altitude, where direct observations of wind are not possible, the zonal wind field can be derived from the vertical temperature structure using a special approximation of the thermal wind equation: based on cyclostrophic balance. Previous studies (Leovy, 1973; Newman et al

Latitudinal and Longitudinal Basin-scale Surface Salinity Contrasts and Freshwater Transport by Ocean Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2003-12-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. In numerical experiments using an ocean general circulation model, we have aggregated the observed sea surface temperature (SST) and SSS in several different ways: we used observed unchanged SST with SSS taken as constant (34.25 psu) everywhere; SST unchanged, and SSS zonally averaged globally, i.e., in the whole World Ocean; SST averaged globally, and SSS unchanged; SST zonally averaged globally and SSS zonally averaged basin-wide in individual basins, i.e., in the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans separately; and, finally, both SST and SSS zonally averaged in individual basins. Global zonal averaging removes all longitudinal differences in sea surface climatology among ocean basins. However, latitudinal profiles of zonally averaged parameters preserve the main character of large-scale equator-to-pole sea surface variability. Basin-wide zonal averaging does an even better job of preserving latitudinal distributions within each basin. The results of the experiments could hardly be anticipated a priory. Surprisingly, SST could be used as a 2-D field, or as a zonally-averaged field without much difference in the THC dynamics. Moreover, SST could be averaged either globally, or basin-wide, and it also did not change the overall character of THC. At the same time, THC responded vigorously to how the SSS has been changed. It appeared that the THC structure with the globally averaged SST and basin-wide averaged SSS was very close to the one obtained in the control run (control run operates with 2-D observed SST and SSS). Our main conclusion is that ocean-wide inter-basin sea surface salinity contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global thermohaline circulation. Thermal inter-basin contrasts, as well as

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Mesoscale Rainfall: Statistics of Spatial Averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.

2003-01-01

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. A previously developed spectral model of rain statistics that is designed to capture this property, predicts power law scaling behavior for the second moment statistics of area-averaged rain rate on the averaging length scale L as L right arrow 0. In the present work a more efficient method of estimating the model parameters is presented, and used to fit the model to the statistics of area-averaged rain rate derived from gridded radar precipitation data from TOGA COARE. Statistical properties of the data and the model predictions are compared over a wide range of averaging scales. An extension of the spectral model scaling relations to describe the dependence of the average fraction of grid boxes within an area containing nonzero rain (the "rainy area fraction") on the grid scale L is also explored.

Zonal flow dynamics and control of turbulent transport in stellarators.

PubMed

Xanthopoulos, P; Mischchenko, A; Helander, P; Sugama, H; Watanabe, T-H

2011-12-09

The relation between magnetic geometry and the level of ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) driven turbulence in stellarators is explored through gyrokinetic theory and direct linear and nonlinear simulations. It is found that the ITG radial heat flux is sensitive to details of the magnetic configuration that can be understood in terms of the linear behavior of zonal flows. The results throw light on the question of how the optimization of neoclassical confinement is related to the reduction of turbulence.

A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, Richard; Gatien, Philippe; Renaud, Benoit; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean-Luc

2015-10-01

This study aims to test whether a weighted combination of several hydrological models can simulate flows more accurately than the models taken individually. In addition, the project attempts to identify the most efficient model averaging method and the optimal number of models to include in the weighting scheme. In order to address the first objective, streamflow was simulated using four lumped hydrological models (HSAMI, HMETS, MOHYSE and GR4J-6), each of which were calibrated with three different objective functions on 429 watersheds. The resulting 12 hydrographs (4 models × 3 metrics) were weighted and combined with the help of 9 averaging methods which are the simple arithmetic mean (SAM), Akaike information criterion (AICA), Bates-Granger (BGA), Bayes information criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Granger-Ramanathan average variant A, B and C (GRA, GRB and GRC) and the average by SCE-UA optimization (SCA). The same weights were then applied to the hydrographs in validation mode, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency metric was measured between the averaged and observed hydrographs. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the accuracy of weighted methods to that of individual models. A Kruskal-Wallis test and a multi-objective optimization algorithm were then used to identify the most efficient weighted method and the optimal number of models to integrate. Results suggest that the GRA, GRB, GRC and SCA weighted methods perform better than the individual members. Model averaging from these four methods were superior to the best of the individual members in 76% of the cases. Optimal combinations on all watersheds included at least one of each of the four hydrological models. None of the optimal combinations included all members of the ensemble of 12 hydrographs. The Granger-Ramanathan average variant C (GRC) is recommended as the best compromise between accuracy, speed of execution, and simplicity.

Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

1975-01-01

Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

Evaluating the road safety effects of a fuel cost increase measure by means of zonal crash prediction modeling.

PubMed

Pirdavani, Ali; Brijs, Tom; Bellemans, Tom; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert

2013-01-01

Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the transportation system's effectiveness by changing travel behavior. The primary objective to implement such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the traffic safety impact of conducting a fuel-cost increase scenario (i.e. increasing the fuel price by 20%) in Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at an aggregate level, crash prediction models (CPMs) should also be developed at a geographically aggregated level. Therefore zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) are considered to present the association between observed crashes in each zone and a set of predictor variables. To this end, an activity-based transportation model framework is applied to produce exposure metrics which will be used in prediction models. This allows us to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models unlike traditional models in which the impact of TDM strategies are assumed. The crash data used in this study consist of fatal and injury crashes observed between 2004 and 2007. The network and socio-demographic variables are also collected from other sources. In this study, different ZCPMs are developed to predict the number of injury crashes (NOCs) (disaggregated by different severity levels and crash types) for both the null and the fuel-cost increase scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the fuel-cost increase scenario apart from its impact on the reduction of the total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). A 20% increase in fuel price is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 5.02 billion (11.57% of the total annual VKT in Flanders), which causes the total NOCs to decline by 2.83%. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest response to rising CO 2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

DOE PAGES

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; ...

2018-04-27

Understanding how anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO 2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO 2 increases are isolated over individualmore » continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO 2 than Asian or African forests.« less

Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Lindsay, Keith; Pritchard, Michael S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Randerson, James T.

2018-05-01

Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.

Indentation mapping revealed poroelastic, but not viscoelastic, properties spanning native zonal articular cartilage.

PubMed

Wahlquist, Joseph A; DelRio, Frank W; Randolph, Mark A; Aziz, Aaron H; Heveran, Chelsea M; Bryant, Stephanie J; Neu, Corey P; Ferguson, Virginia L

2017-12-01

Osteoarthrosis is a debilitating disease affecting millions, yet engineering materials for cartilage regeneration has proven difficult because of the complex microstructure of this tissue. Articular cartilage, like many biological tissues, produces a time-dependent response to mechanical load that is critical to cell's physiological function in part due to solid and fluid phase interactions and property variations across multiple length scales. Recreating the time-dependent strain and fluid flow may be critical for successfully engineering replacement tissues but thus far has largely been neglected. Here, microindentation is used to accomplish three objectives: (1) quantify a material's time-dependent mechanical response, (2) map material properties at a cellular relevant length scale throughout zonal articular cartilage and (3) elucidate the underlying viscoelastic, poroelastic, and nonlinear poroelastic causes of deformation in articular cartilage. Untreated and trypsin-treated cartilage was sectioned perpendicular to the articular surface and indentation was used to evaluate properties throughout zonal cartilage on the cut surface. The experimental results demonstrated that within all cartilage zones, the mechanical response was well represented by a model assuming nonlinear biphasic behavior and did not follow conventional viscoelastic or linear poroelastic models. Additionally, 10% (w/w) agarose was tested and, as anticipated, behaved as a linear poroelastic material. The approach outlined here provides a method, applicable to many tissues and biomaterials, which reveals and quantifies the underlying causes of time-dependent deformation, elucidates key aspects of material structure and function, and that can be used to provide important inputs for computational models and targets for tissue engineering. Elucidating the time-dependent mechanical behavior of cartilage, and other biological materials, is critical to adequately recapitulate native mechanosensory

The Model Averaging for Dichotomous Response Benchmark Dose (MADr-BMD) Tool

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Providing quantal response models, which are also used in the U.S. EPA benchmark dose software suite, and generates a model-averaged dose response model to generate benchmark dose and benchmark dose lower bound estimates.

Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steve B.

2013-01-01

When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cekresolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek

Spatial averaging of a dissipative particle dynamics model for active suspensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panchenko, Alexander; Hinz, Denis F.; Fried, Eliot

2018-03-01

Starting from a fine-scale dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) model of self-motile point particles, we derive meso-scale continuum equations by applying a spatial averaging version of the Irving-Kirkwood-Noll procedure. Since the method does not rely on kinetic theory, the derivation is valid for highly concentrated particle systems. Spatial averaging yields stochastic continuum equations similar to those of Toner and Tu. However, our theory also involves a constitutive equation for the average fluctuation force. According to this equation, both the strength and the probability distribution vary with time and position through the effective mass density. The statistics of the fluctuation force also depend on the fine scale dissipative force equation, the physical temperature, and two additional parameters which characterize fluctuation strengths. Although the self-propulsion force entering our DPD model contains no explicit mechanism for aligning the velocities of neighboring particles, our averaged coarse-scale equations include the commonly encountered cubically nonlinear (internal) body force density.

SPARSE—A subgrid particle averaged Reynolds stress equivalent model: testing with a priori closure

PubMed Central

Davis, Sean L.; Sen, Oishik; Udaykumar, H. S.

2017-01-01

A Lagrangian particle cloud model is proposed that accounts for the effects of Reynolds-averaged particle and turbulent stresses and the averaged carrier-phase velocity of the subparticle cloud scale on the averaged motion and velocity of the cloud. The SPARSE (subgrid particle averaged Reynolds stress equivalent) model is based on a combination of a truncated Taylor expansion of a drag correction function and Reynolds averaging. It reduces the required number of computational parcels to trace a cloud of particles in Eulerian–Lagrangian methods for the simulation of particle-laden flow. Closure is performed in an a priori manner using a reference simulation where all particles in the cloud are traced individually with a point-particle model. Comparison of a first-order model and SPARSE with the reference simulation in one dimension shows that both the stress and the averaging of the carrier-phase velocity on the cloud subscale affect the averaged motion of the particle. A three-dimensional isotropic turbulence computation shows that only one computational parcel is sufficient to accurately trace a cloud of tens of thousands of particles. PMID:28413341

SPARSE-A subgrid particle averaged Reynolds stress equivalent model: testing with a priori closure.

PubMed

Davis, Sean L; Jacobs, Gustaaf B; Sen, Oishik; Udaykumar, H S

2017-03-01

A Lagrangian particle cloud model is proposed that accounts for the effects of Reynolds-averaged particle and turbulent stresses and the averaged carrier-phase velocity of the subparticle cloud scale on the averaged motion and velocity of the cloud. The SPARSE (subgrid particle averaged Reynolds stress equivalent) model is based on a combination of a truncated Taylor expansion of a drag correction function and Reynolds averaging. It reduces the required number of computational parcels to trace a cloud of particles in Eulerian-Lagrangian methods for the simulation of particle-laden flow. Closure is performed in an a priori manner using a reference simulation where all particles in the cloud are traced individually with a point-particle model. Comparison of a first-order model and SPARSE with the reference simulation in one dimension shows that both the stress and the averaging of the carrier-phase velocity on the cloud subscale affect the averaged motion of the particle. A three-dimensional isotropic turbulence computation shows that only one computational parcel is sufficient to accurately trace a cloud of tens of thousands of particles.

Geographic distribution of zonal wind and UV albedo at cloud top level from VMC camera on Venus Express: Influence of Venus topography through stationary gravity waves vertical propagation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertaux, Jean-Loup; Khatunstsev, Igor; Hauchecorne, Alain; Markiewicz, Wojciech; Marcq, Emmanuel; Lebonnois, Sébastien; Patsaeva, Marina; Turin, Alexander

2015-04-01

UV images (at 365 nm) of Venus cloud top collected with VMC camera on board Venus Express allowed to derive a large number of wind measurements at altitude 67±2 km from tracking of cloud features in the period 2006-2012. Both manual (45,600) and digital (391,600) individual wind measurements over 127 orbits were analyzed showing various patterns with latitude and local time. A new longitude-latitude geographic map of the zonal wind shows a conspicuous region of strongly decreased zonal wind, a remarkable feature that was unknown up to now. While the average zonal wind near equator (from 5°S to 15°s) is -100.9 m/s in the longitude range 200-330°, it reaches -83.4 m/s in the range 60-100°, a difference of 17.5 m/s. When compared to the altimetry map of Venus, it is found that the zonal wind pattern is well correlated with the underlying relief in the region of Aphrodite Terra, with a downstream shift of about 30° (˜3,200 km). We interpret this pattern as the result of stationary gravity waves produced at ground level by the up lift of air when the horizontal wind encounters a mountain slope. These waves can propagate up to cloud top level, break there and transfer their momentum to the zonal flow. A similar phenomenon is known to operate on Earth with an influence on mesospheric winds. The LMD-GCM for Venus was run with or without topography, with and without a parameterization of gravity waves and does not display such an observed change of velocity near equator. The cloud albedo map at 365 nm varies also in longitude and latitude. We speculate that it might be the result of increased vertical mixing associated to wave breaking, and decreased abundance of the UV absorber which makes the contrast in images. The impact of these new findings on current super rotation theories remains to be assessed. This work was triggered by the presence of a conspicuous peak at 117 days in a time series of wind measurements. This is the length of the solar day as seen at the

Biohazards Assessment in Large-Scale Zonal Centrifugation

PubMed Central

Baldwin, C. L.; Lemp, J. F.; Barbeito, M. S.

1975-01-01

A study was conducted to determine the biohazards associated with use of the large-scale zonal centrifuge for purification of moderate risk oncogenic viruses. To safely and conveniently assess the hazard, coliphage T3 was substituted for the virus in a typical processing procedure performed in a National Cancer Institute contract laboratory. Risk of personnel exposure was found to be minimal during optimal operation but definite potential for virus release from a number of centrifuge components during mechanical malfunction was shown by assay of surface, liquid, and air samples collected during the processing. High concentration of phage was detected in the turbine air exhaust and the seal coolant system when faulty seals were employed. The simulant virus was also found on both centrifuge chamber interior and rotor surfaces. Images PMID:1124921

Estimating Energy Conversion Efficiency of Thermoelectric Materials: Constant Property Versus Average Property Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, Hannah; Boese, Matthew; Carmichael, Cody; Dimich, Hannah; Seay, Dylan; Sheppard, Nathan; Beekman, Matt

2017-01-01

Maximum thermoelectric energy conversion efficiencies are calculated using the conventional "constant property" model and the recently proposed "cumulative/average property" model (Kim et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112:8205, 2015) for 18 high-performance thermoelectric materials. We find that the constant property model generally predicts higher energy conversion efficiency for nearly all materials and temperature differences studied. Although significant deviations are observed in some cases, on average the constant property model predicts an efficiency that is a factor of 1.16 larger than that predicted by the average property model, with even lower deviations for temperature differences typical of energy harvesting applications. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the conventional dimensionless figure of merit ZT obtained from the constant property model, while not applicable for some materials with strongly temperature-dependent thermoelectric properties, remains a simple yet useful metric for initial evaluation and/or comparison of thermoelectric materials, provided the ZT at the average temperature of projected operation, not the peak ZT, is used.

Generation of zonal flows through symmetry breaking of statistical homogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Jeffrey B.; Krommes, John A.

2014-03-01

In geophysical and plasma contexts, zonal flows (ZFs) are well known to arise out of turbulence. We elucidate the transition from homogeneous turbulence without ZFs to inhomogeneous turbulence with steady ZFs. Starting from the equation for barotropic flow on a β plane, we employ both the quasilinear approximation and a statistical average, which retains a great deal of the qualitative behavior of the full system. Within the resulting framework known as CE2, we extend recent understanding of the symmetry-breaking zonostrophic instability and show that it is an example of a Type {{\\text{I}}_{s}} instability within the pattern formation literature. The broken symmetry is statistical homogeneity. Near the bifurcation point, the slow dynamics of CE2 are governed by a well-known amplitude equation. The important features of this amplitude equation, and therefore of the CE2 system, are multiple. First, the ZF wavelength is not unique. In an idealized, infinite system, there is a continuous band of ZF wavelengths that allow a nonlinear equilibrium. Second, of these wavelengths, only those within a smaller subband are stable. Unstable wavelengths must evolve to reach a stable wavelength; this process manifests as merging jets. These behaviors are shown numerically to hold in the CE2 system. We also conclude that the stability of the equilibria near the bifurcation point, which is governed by the Eckhaus instability, is independent of the Rayleigh-Kuo criterion.

A Zonal Approach for Prediction of Jet Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, S. H.; Hixon, D. R.; Mankbadi, Reda R.

1995-01-01

A zonal approach for direct computation of sound generation and propagation from a supersonic jet is investigated. The present work splits the computational domain into a nonlinear, acoustic-source regime and a linear acoustic wave propagation regime. In the nonlinear regime, the unsteady flow is governed by the large-scale equations, which are the filtered compressible Navier-Stokes equations. In the linear acoustic regime, the sound wave propagation is described by the linearized Euler equations. Computational results are presented for a supersonic jet at M = 2. 1. It is demonstrated that no spurious modes are generated in the matching region and the computational expense is reduced substantially as opposed to fully large-scale simulation.

A technique for inferring zonal irregularity drift from single-station GNSS measurements of intensity (S4) and phase (σφ) scintillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrano, Charles S.; Groves, Keith M.; Rino, Charles L.; Doherty, Patricia H.

2016-08-01

The zonal drift of ionospheric irregularities at low latitudes is most commonly measured by cross-correlating observations of a scintillating satellite signal made with a pair of closely spaced antennas. The Air Force Research Laboratory-Scintillation Network Decision Aid (AFRL-SCINDA) network operates a small number of very high frequency (VHF) spaced-receiver systems at low latitudes for this purpose. A far greater number of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) scintillation monitors are operated by the AFRL-SCINDA network (25-30) and the Low-Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (35-50), but the receivers are too widely separated from each other for cross-correlation techniques to be effective. In this paper, we present an alternative approach that leverages the weak scatter scintillation theory to infer the zonal irregularity drift from single-station GNSS measurements of S4, σφ, and the propagation geometry. Unlike the spaced-receiver technique, this approach requires assumptions regarding the height of the scattering layer (which introduces a bias in the drift estimates) and the spectral index of the irregularities (which affects the spread of the drift estimates about the mean). Nevertheless, theory and experiment suggest that the ratio of σφ to S4 is less sensitive to these parameters than it is to the zonal drift. We validate the technique using VHF spaced-receiver measurements of zonal irregularity drift obtained from the AFRL-SCINDA network. While the spaced-receiver technique remains the preferred way to monitor the drift when closely spaced antenna pairs are available, our technique provides a new opportunity to monitor zonal irregularity drift using regional or global networks of widely separated GNSS scintillation monitors.

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baurle, R. A.

2015-01-01

Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit

Nonlinear growth of zonal flows by secondary instability in general magnetic geometry

DOE PAGES

Plunk, G. G.; Navarro, A. Banon

2017-02-23

Here we present a theory of the nonlinear growth of zonal flows in magnetized plasma turbulence, by the mechanism of secondary instability. The theory is derived for general magnetic geometry, and is thus applicable to both tokamaks and stellarators. The predicted growth rate is shown to compare favorably with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations, with the error scaling as expected with the small parameter of the theory.

Maximum likelihood estimation for periodic autoregressive moving average models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

A useful class of models for seasonal time series that cannot be filtered or standardized to achieve second-order stationarity is that of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, which are extensions of ARMA models that allow periodic (seasonal) parameters. An approximation to the exact likelihood for Gaussian PARMA processes is developed, and a straightforward algorithm for its maximization is presented. The algorithm is tested on several periodic ARMA(1, 1) models through simulation studies and is compared to moment estimation via the seasonal Yule-Walker equations. Applicability of the technique is demonstrated through an analysis of a seasonal stream-flow series from the Rio Caroni River in Venezuela.

Combining zonal refractive and diffractive aspheric multifocal intraocular lenses.

PubMed

Muñoz, Gonzalo; Albarrán-Diego, César; Javaloy, Jaime; Sakla, Hani F; Cerviño, Alejandro

2012-03-01

To assess visual performance with the combination of a zonal refractive aspheric multifocal intraocular lens (MIOL) (Lentis Mplus, Oculentis GmbH) and a diffractive aspheric MIOL (Acri.Lisa 366, Acri.Tech GmbH). This prospective interventional cohort study comprised 80 eyes from 40 cataract patients (mean age: 65.5±7.3 years) who underwent implantation of the Lentis Mplus MIOL in one eye and Acri.Lisa 366 MIOL in the fellow eye. The main outcome measures were refraction; monocular and binocular uncorrected and corrected distance, intermediate, and near visual acuities; monocular and binocular defocus curves; binocular photopic contrast sensitivity function compared to a monofocal intraocular lens (IOL) control group (40 age-matched pseudophakic patients implanted with the AR-40e [Abbott Medical Optics]); and quality of vision questionnaire. Binocular uncorrected visual acuities were 0.12 logMAR (0.76 decimal) or better at all distances measured between 6 m and 33 cm. The Lentis Mplus provided statistically significant better vision than the Acri.Lisa at distances between 2 m and 40 cm, and the Acri.Lisa provided statistically significant better vision than the Lentis Mplus at 33 cm. Binocular defocus curve showed little drop-off at intermediate distances. Photopic contrast sensitivity function for distance and near were similar to the monofocal IOL control group except for higher frequencies. Moderate glare (15%), night vision problems (12.5%), and halos (10%) were reported. Complete independence of spectacles was achieved by 92.5% of patients. The combination of zonal refractive aspheric and diffractive aspheric MIOLs resulted in excellent uncorrected binocular distance, intermediate, and near vision, with low incidence of significant photic phenomena and high patient satisfaction. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

The 10-30-day oscillation of winter zonal wind in the entrance region of the East Asian subtropical jet and its relationship with precipitation in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Chenyu; Huang, Qian; Zhu, Bin; Liu, Fei

2018-06-01

Using ECMWF ERA-Interim 6-h reanalysis data, zonal wind intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs) in the entrance region of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) in winter from 1979/1980 to 2012/2013 are studied. The results first show that there is an area with large ISO strength in the northwest of the EASWJ; in the key region, zonal wind has a dominant period of 10-30 days. The composite analysis reveals that zonal wind at 200 hPa in this key region has 10-30-day oscillation characteristics. On the 10-30-day time scale, the center of zonal wind anomaly moves eastward. The propagation of zonal wind oscillation relates to temperature tendencies at different latitudes. The remarkable increase (or decrease) in zonal wind in the key region is mostly determined by temperature anomalies to the north. The 10-30-day filtered temperature advection to the north of the key region leads to either a decrease or an increase in temperature; on the other hand, temperature variations south of the key region have trends opposite of the northern trends, which changes the temperature gradient. On the 10-30-day time scale, zonal wind anomalies are associated with precipitation in southern China. When there are easterly wind anomalies over the key region, precipitation occurs over the Yangtze River basin and its south. Diabatic heating during precipitation corresponds with warming to the south of the key region, which combines with the temperature advection to weaken the easterly wind and strengths the westerly wind. Then, the intra-seasonal precipitation moves to southwest China with warm advection and the enhanced westerly wind, which brings the positive relative vorticity advection there.

Periodical oscillation of zonal wind velocities at the cloud top of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouyama, T.; Imamura, T.; Nakamura, M.; Satoh, T.; Futaana, Y.

2010-12-01

Zonal wind velocity of Venus increases with height and reaches about 100 m s-1 at the cloud top level (~70km). The speed is approximately 60 times faster than the rotation speed of the solid body of Venus (~1.6 m s-1, at the equator) and this phenomenon is called a "super-rotation". From previous observations, it is known that the super-rotation changes on a long timescale. At the cloud top level, it was suggested that the super-rotation has a few years period oscillation based on observations made by Pioneer Venus orbiter of USA from 1979 to 1985 (Del Genio et al.,1990). However, the period, the amplitude, the spatial structure and the mechanism of the long period oscillation have not been understood well. Venus Express (VEX) of European Space Agency has been observing Venus since its orbital insertion in April 2006. Venus Monitoring Camera (VMC) onboard VEX has an ultra violet (UV) filter (365 nm), and VMC has taken day-side cloud images at the cloud top level with this filter. Such images exhibit various cloud features made by unknown UV absorber in the atmosphere. For investigating the characteristics of long-timescale variations of the super-rotation, we analyzed zonal velocity fields derived from UV cloud images from May 2006 to January 2010 using a cloud tracking method. UV imaging of VMC is done when the spacecraft is in the ascending portion of its elongated polar orbit. Since the orbital plane is nearly fixed in the inertial space, the local time of VMC/UV observation changes with a periodicity of one Venus year. As a result, periods when VMC observation covered day-side areas of Venus, large enough for cloud trackings, are not continuous. For deriving wind velocities we were able to use cloud images taken in 280 orbits during this period. The derived zonal wind velocity from 10°S to 40°S latitude shows a prominent year-to-year variation, and the variation is well fitted by a periodical oscillation with a period of about 260 Earth days, although not all

Zonal and meridional patterns of phytoplankton biomass and carbon fixation in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, between 110°W and 140°W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balch, W. M.; Poulton, A. J.; Drapeau, D. T.; Bowler, B. C.; Windecker, L. A.; Booth, E. S.

2011-03-01

Primary production (P prim) and calcification (C calc) were measured in the eastern and central Equatorial Pacific during December 2004 and September 2005, between 110°W and 140°W. The design of the field sampling allowed partitioning of P prim and total chlorophyll a (B) between large (>3 μm) and small (0.45-3 μm) phytoplankton cells. The station locations allowed discrimination of meridional and zonal patterns. The cruises coincided with a warm El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and ENSO-neutral phase, respectively, which proved to be the major factors relating to the patterns of productivity. Production and biomass of large phytoplankton generally covaried with that of small cells; large cells typically accounted for 20-30% of B and 20% of P prim. Elevated biomass and primary production of all size fractions were highest along the equator as well as at the convergence zone between the North Equatorial Counter Current and the South Equatorial Current. C calc by >0.4 μm cells was 2-3% of P prim by the same size fraction, for both cruises. Biomass-normalized P prim values were, on average, slightly higher during the warm-phase ENSO period, inconsistent with a "bottom-up" control mechanism (such as nutrient supply). Another source of variability along the equator was Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs). Zonal variance in integrated phytoplankton biomass (along the equator, between 110° and 140°) was almost the same as the meridional variance across it (between 4° N and 4° S). However, the zonal variance in integrated P prim was half the variance observed meridionally. The variance in integrated C calc along the equator was half that seen meridionally during the warm ENSO phase cruise whereas during the ENSO-neutral period, it was identical. No relation could be observed between the patterns of integrated carbon fixation (P prim or C calc) and integrated nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, silicate or dissolved iron). This suggests that the factors

Optimizing zonal advection of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamics for Intel MIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

2014-10-01

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is the most widely used community weather forecast and research model in the world. There are two distinct varieties of WRF. The Advanced Research WRF (ARW) is an experimental, advanced research version featuring very high resolution. The WRF Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) has been designed for forecasting operations. WRF consists of dynamics code and several physics modules. The WRF-ARW core is based on an Eulerian solver for the fully compressible nonhydrostatic equations. In the paper, we will use Intel Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) architecture to substantially increase the performance of a zonal advection subroutine for optimization. It is of the most time consuming routines in the ARW dynamics core. Advection advances the explicit perturbation horizontal momentum equations by adding in the large-timestep tendency along with the small timestep pressure gradient tendency. We will describe the challenges we met during the development of a high-speed dynamics code subroutine for MIC architecture. Furthermore, lessons learned from the code optimization process will be discussed. The results show that the optimizations improved performance of the original code on Xeon Phi 5110P by a factor of 2.4x.

Rare excitatory amino acid from flowers of zonal geranium responsible for paralyzing the Japanese beetle.

PubMed

Ranger, Christopher M; Winter, Rudolph E; Singh, Ajay P; Reding, Michael E; Frantz, Jonathan M; Locke, James C; Krause, Charles R

2011-01-25

The Japanese beetle (JB), Popillia japonica, exhibits rapid paralysis after consuming flower petals of zonal geranium, Pelargonium x hortorum. Activity-guided fractionations were conducted with polar flower petal extracts from P. x hortorum cv. Nittany Lion Red, which led to the isolation of a paralysis-inducing compound. High-resolution-MS and NMR ((1)H, (13)C, COSY, heteronuclear sequential quantum correlation, heteronuclear multiple bond correlation) analysis identified the paralytic compound as quisqualic acid (C(5)H(7)N(3)O(5)), a known but rare agonist of excitatory amino acid receptors. Optical rotation measurements and chiral HPLC analysis determined an L-configuration. Geranium-derived and synthetic L-quisqualic acid demonstrated the same positive paralytic dose-response. Isolation of a neurotoxic, excitatory amino acid from zonal geranium establishes the phytochemical basis for induced paralysis of the JB, which had remained uncharacterized since the phenomenon was first described in 1920.

Intra-seasonal Oscillations (ISO) of Zonal-Mean Meridional Winds and Temperatures as Measured by UARS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Frank T.; Mayr, Hans G.; Reber, Carl A.

2004-01-01

Based on an empirical analysis of measurements with the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on the UARS spacecraft in the upper mesosphere (95 km), persistent and regular intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) with periods of about 2 to 4 months have recently been reported in the zonal-mean meridional winds. Similar oscillations have also been discussed independently in a modeling study, and they were attributed to wave-mean-flow interactions. The observed and modeled meridional wind ISOs were largely confined to low latitudes. We report here an analysis of concurrent temperature measurements on UARS, which produces oscillations similar to those seen in the meridional winds. Although the temperature oscillations are observed at lower altitudes (55 km), their phase variations with latitude are qualitatively consistent with the inferred properties seen in the meridional winds and thus provide independent evidence for the existence of ISOs in the mesosphere.

Appropriateness of selecting different averaging times for modelling chronic and acute exposure to environmental odours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drew, G. H.; Smith, R.; Gerard, V.; Burge, C.; Lowe, M.; Kinnersley, R.; Sneath, R.; Longhurst, P. J.

Odour emissions are episodic, characterised by periods of high emission rates, interspersed with periods of low emissions. It is frequently the short term, high concentration peaks that result in annoyance in the surrounding population. Dispersion modelling is accepted as a useful tool for odour impact assessment, and two approaches can be adopted. The first approach of modelling the hourly average concentration can underestimate total odour concentration peaks, resulting in annoyance and complaints. The second modelling approach involves the use of short averaging times. This study assesses the appropriateness of using different averaging times to model the dispersion of odour from a landfill site. We also examine perception of odour in the community in conjunction with the modelled odour dispersal, by using community monitors to record incidents of odour. The results show that with the shorter averaging times, the modelled pattern of dispersal reflects the pattern of observed odour incidents recorded in the community monitoring database, with the modelled odour dispersing further in a north easterly direction. Therefore, the current regulatory method of dispersion modelling, using hourly averaging times, is less successful at capturing peak concentrations, and does not capture the pattern of odour emission as indicated by the community monitoring database. The use of short averaging times is therefore of greater value in predicting the likely nuisance impact of an odour source and in framing appropriate regulatory controls.

Analyzing average and conditional effects with multigroup multilevel structural equation models

PubMed Central

Mayer, Axel; Nagengast, Benjamin; Fletcher, John; Steyer, Rolf

2014-01-01

Conventionally, multilevel analysis of covariance (ML-ANCOVA) has been the recommended approach for analyzing treatment effects in quasi-experimental multilevel designs with treatment application at the cluster-level. In this paper, we introduce the generalized ML-ANCOVA with linear effect functions that identifies average and conditional treatment effects in the presence of treatment-covariate interactions. We show how the generalized ML-ANCOVA model can be estimated with multigroup multilevel structural equation models that offer considerable advantages compared to traditional ML-ANCOVA. The proposed model takes into account measurement error in the covariates, sampling error in contextual covariates, treatment-covariate interactions, and stochastic predictors. We illustrate the implementation of ML-ANCOVA with an example from educational effectiveness research where we estimate average and conditional effects of early transition to secondary schooling on reading comprehension. PMID:24795668

A Comparison of Averaged and Full Models to Study the Third-Body Perturbation

PubMed Central

Solórzano, Carlos Renato Huaura; Prado, Antonio Fernando Bertachini de Almeida

2013-01-01

The effects of a third-body travelling in a circular orbit around a main body on a massless satellite that is orbiting the same main body are studied under two averaged models, single and double, where expansions of the disturbing function are made, and the full restricted circular three-body problem. The goal is to compare the behavior of these two averaged models against the full problem for long-term effects, in order to have some knowledge of their differences. The single averaged model eliminates the terms due to the short period of the spacecraft. The double average is taken over the mean motion of the satellite and the mean motion of the disturbing body, so removing both short period terms. As an example of the methods, an artificial satellite around the Earth perturbed by the Moon is used. A detailed study of the effects of different initial conditions in the orbit of the spacecraft is made. PMID:24319348

A comparison of averaged and full models to study the third-body perturbation.

PubMed

Solórzano, Carlos Renato Huaura; Prado, Antonio Fernando Bertachini de Almeida

2013-01-01

The effects of a third-body travelling in a circular orbit around a main body on a massless satellite that is orbiting the same main body are studied under two averaged models, single and double, where expansions of the disturbing function are made, and the full restricted circular three-body problem. The goal is to compare the behavior of these two averaged models against the full problem for long-term effects, in order to have some knowledge of their differences. The single averaged model eliminates the terms due to the short period of the spacecraft. The double average is taken over the mean motion of the satellite and the mean motion of the disturbing body, so removing both short period terms. As an example of the methods, an artificial satellite around the Earth perturbed by the Moon is used. A detailed study of the effects of different initial conditions in the orbit of the spacecraft is made.

Macro and micro rate zonal analytical centrifugation of polydisperse and slowly diffusing sedimenting systems in isovolumetric density gradients. Application to cartilage proteoglycans.

PubMed

Müller, F J; Pezon, C F; Pita, J C

1989-06-13

A method to study the polydispersity of zonally sedimenting and slowly diffusing macromolecules or particles in isokinetic or isovolumetric density gradients is presented. First, a brief theory is given for predicting the zonal profile after a "triangular" (or "inverse") zone is centrifuged. This type of zone is essential to preserve hydrodynamic stability of the very slowly diffusing polydisperse solutes. It is proven, both by semitheoretical considerations and by computer calculations, that the resulting concentration profile of macrosolute is almost identical with that obtainable with a rectangular zone coextensive with the triangular one and carrying the same total mass. Next, practical procedures are described for the convectionless layering of very small triangular zones (50 microL or less). The linearity and stability of the zones are experimentally tested and verified. Finally, the method is applied to cartilage proteoglycan preparations that included either the monomeric molecules only or both the monomeric and the aggregated ones. The zonal results are compared with those obtained by using conventional boundary sedimentation. The two sets of results are seen to coincide fairly well, thus proving that the present technique can add to preparative zonal centrifugation the analytical precision of boundary sedimentation. A multimodal polydisperse system is suggested to describe the aggregated proteoglycan macromolecules.

A Zonal Mode in the Indian Ocean over the Past Millennium? Isotopic Evidence from Continental Climate Archives and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B.; Russell, J. M.; Vuille, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Cohen, L. R.; Chuman, A. F.; Huang, Y.

2011-12-01

We present new evidence for multi-decadal to millennial scale hydro-climatic change in the continental Indian Ocean region over the past two millennia. We assess regional hydrological variability using new records of the δD of terrestrial plant waxes from the sediments of several lakes in tropical East Africa and Indonesia. We compare these new data to previous δ18O and δD records from the region and interpret these results in light of an isotope-enabled climate model simulation of the past 130 years. Long-term trends in our data support a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)'s mean position over the past millennium, bringing progressively wetter conditions and D-depleted waxes to our southernmost site (~8°S) starting around 950 C.E. while maintaining overall wet conditions at our northernmost site (~0°N) until the end of the 19th century. Superimposed on this long-term trend are a series of pronounced, multi-decadal to centennial scale isotopic excursions that are of the same timing but in opposite directions on the two sides of the Indian Ocean. These zonally asymmetric isotopic fluctuations become progressively more pronounced beginning around 1400 C.E., with the onset of Little Ice Age cool conditions recorded in sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Northern Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). Previous work in the IPWP region suggests cooler SST, reduced boreal summer Asian monsoon intensity, and less ENSO-like activity during the Little Ice Age [Oppo et al., 2009, Nature 460:1113, and references therein], although recent paleolimnological reconstructions from Java indicate punctuated droughts during this time [Rodysill et al., 2010, Eos Trans. AGU, 91(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP51B-04]. Our records suggest that multi-decadal to centennial precipitation variability was in fact enhanced during this time period in parts of equatorial East Africa and western Indonesia. The direction of isotopic

Transient pressure analysis of fractured well in bi-zonal gas reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yu-Long; Zhang, Lie-Hui; Liu, Yong-hui; Hu, Shu-Yong; Liu, Qi-Guo

2015-05-01

For hydraulic fractured well, how to evaluate the properties of fracture and formation are always tough jobs and it is very complex to use the conventional method to do that, especially for partially penetrating fractured well. Although the source function is a very powerful tool to analyze the transient pressure for complex structure well, the corresponding reports on gas reservoir are rare. In this paper, the continuous point source functions in anisotropic reservoirs are derived on the basis of source function theory, Laplace transform method and Duhamel principle. Application of construction method, the continuous point source functions in bi-zonal gas reservoir with closed upper and lower boundaries are obtained. Sequentially, the physical models and transient pressure solutions are developed for fully and partially penetrating fractured vertical wells in this reservoir. Type curves of dimensionless pseudo-pressure and its derivative as function of dimensionless time are plotted as well by numerical inversion algorithm, and the flow periods and sensitive factors are also analyzed. The source functions and solutions of fractured well have both theoretical and practical application in well test interpretation for such gas reservoirs, especial for the well with stimulated reservoir volume around the well in unconventional gas reservoir by massive hydraulic fracturing which always can be described with the composite model.

Detectability of planetary characteristics in disk-averaged spectra. I: The Earth model.

PubMed

Tinetti, Giovanna; Meadows, Victoria S; Crisp, David; Fong, William; Fishbein, Evan; Turnbull, Margaret; Bibring, Jean-Pierre

2006-02-01

Over the next 2 decades, NASA and ESA are planning a series of space-based observatories to detect and characterize extrasolar planets. This first generation of observatories will not be able to spatially resolve the terrestrial planets detected. Instead, these planets will be characterized by disk-averaged spectroscopy. To assess the detectability of planetary characteristics in disk-averaged spectra, we have developed a spatially and spectrally resolved model of the Earth. This model uses atmospheric and surface properties from existing observations and modeling studies as input, and generates spatially resolved high-resolution synthetic spectra using the Spectral Mapping Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model. Synthetic spectra were generated for a variety of conditions, including cloud coverage, illumination fraction, and viewing angle geometry, over a wavelength range extending from the ultraviolet to the farinfrared. Here we describe the model and validate it against disk-averaged visible to infrared observations of the Earth taken by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer, the ESA Mars Express Omega instrument, and ground-based observations of earthshine reflected from the unilluminated portion of the Moon. The comparison between the data and model indicates that several atmospheric species can be identified in disk-averaged Earth spectra, and potentially detected depending on the wavelength range and resolving power of the instrument. At visible wavelengths (0.4-0.9 microm) O3, H2O, O2, and oxygen dimer [(O2)2] are clearly apparent. In the mid-infrared (5-20 microm) CO2, O3, and H2O are present. CH4, N2O, CO2, O3, and H2O are visible in the near-infrared (1-5 microm). A comprehensive three-dimensional model of the Earth is needed to produce a good fit with the observations.

A three-dimensional model simulation of atmospheric nitrous oxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Blackshear, W. T.; Grose, W. L.; Eckman, R. S.; Pierce, R. B.; Fairlie, T. D. A.

1992-01-01

The NASA Langley 3D GCM chemical transport model is used to investigate the distribution of atmospheric N2O up to 60 km altitude. The transport characteristics of the model is evaluated without the complications of a detailed chemical formulation for all of the relevant stratospheric minor constituents. Interpretation of the yearly average zonal mean N2O distribution in terms of transport by the yearly averaged meridional circulation and stratospheric photochemical loss indicates large regions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere where dynamical mixing apparently plays a large role in maintaining the N2O distribution. In these regions, slopes of the N2O mixing ratio isopleths are maintained by competition between advection by the meridional circulation acting to steepen and dynamical mixing acting to flatten the slopes.

SPI Conformance Gel Applications in Geothermal Zonal Isolation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, Lyle

Zonal isolation in geothermal injection and producing wells is important while drilling the wells when highly fractured geothermal zones are encountered and there is a need to keep the fluids from interfering with the drilling operation. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) objectives are to advance technologies to make it more cost effective to develop, produce, and monitor geothermal reservoirs and produce geothermal energy. Thus, zonal isolation is critical to well cost, reservoir evaluation and operations. Traditional cementing off of the lost circulation or thief zones during drilling is often done to stem the drilling mudmore » losses. This is an expensive and generally unsuccessful technique losing the potential of the remaining fracture system. Selective placement of strong SPI gels into only the offending fractures can maintain and even improve operational efficiency and resource life. The SPI gel system is a unique silicate based gel system that offers a promising solution to thief zones and conformance problems with water and CO2 floods and potentially geothermal operations. This gel system remains a low viscosity fluid until an initiator (either internal such as an additive or external such as CO2) triggers gelation. This is a clear improvement over current mechanical methods of using packers, plugs, liners and cementing technologies that often severely damage the highly fractured area that is isolated. In the SPI gels, the initiator sets up the fluid into a water-like (not a precipitate) gel and when the isolated zone needs to be reopened, the SPI gel may be removed with an alkaline solution without formation damage occurring. In addition, the SPI gel in commercial quantities is expected to be less expensive than competing mechanical systems and has unique deep placement possibilities. This project seeks to improve upon the SPI gel integrity by modifying the various components to impart temperature stability

Application Bayesian Model Averaging method for ensemble system for Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzikowski, Jakub; Czerwinska, Agnieszka

2014-05-01

The aim of the project is to evaluate methods for generating numerical ensemble weather prediction using a meteorological data from The Weather Research & Forecasting Model and calibrating this data by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (WRF BMA) approach. We are constructing height resolution short range ensemble forecasts using meteorological data (temperature) generated by nine WRF's models. WRF models have 35 vertical levels and 2.5 km x 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The main emphasis is that the used ensemble members has a different parameterization of the physical phenomena occurring in the boundary layer. To calibrate an ensemble forecast we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The BMA predictive Probability Density Function (PDF) is a weighted average of predictive PDFs associated with each individual ensemble member, with weights that reflect the member's relative skill. For test we chose a case with heat wave and convective weather conditions in Poland area from 23th July to 1st August 2013. From 23th July to 29th July 2013 temperature oscillated below or above 30 Celsius degree in many meteorology stations and new temperature records were added. During this time the growth of the hospitalized patients with cardiovascular system problems was registered. On 29th July 2013 an advection of moist tropical air masses was recorded in the area of Poland causes strong convection event with mesoscale convection system (MCS). MCS caused local flooding, damage to the transport infrastructure, destroyed buildings, trees and injuries and direct threat of life. Comparison of the meteorological data from ensemble system with the data recorded on 74 weather stations localized in Poland is made. We prepare a set of the model - observations pairs. Then, the obtained data from single ensemble members and median from WRF BMA system are evaluated on the basis of the deterministic statistical error Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To evaluation

Algorithms for Zonal Methods and Development of Three Dimensional Mesh Generation Procedures.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-02-01

a r-re complete set of equations is used, but their effect is imposed by means of a right hand side forcing function, not by means of a zonal boundary...modifications of flow-simulation algorithms The explicit finite-difference code of Magnus and are discussed. Computational tests in two dimensions...used to simplify the task of grid generation without an adverse achieve computational efficiency. More recently, effect on flow-field algorithms and

The Brown Alga Stypopodium zonale (Dictyotaceae): A Potential Source of Anti-Leishmania Drugs

PubMed Central

Soares, Deivid Costa; Szlachta, Marcella Macedo; Teixeira, Valéria Laneuville; Soares, Angelica Ribeiro; Saraiva, Elvira Maria

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the anti-Leishmania amazonensis activity of a lipophilic extract from the brown alga Stypopodium zonale and atomaric acid, its major compound. Our initial results revealed high inhibitory activity for intracellular amastigotes in a dose-dependent manner and an IC50 of 0.27 μg/mL. Due to its high anti-Leishmania activity and low toxicity toward host cells, we fractionated the lipophilic extract. A major meroditerpene in this extract, atomaric acid, and its methyl ester derivative, which was obtained by a methylation procedure, were identified by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Both compounds inhibited intracellular amastigotes, with IC50 values of 20.2 μM (9 μg/mL) and 22.9 μM (10 μg/mL), and selectivity indexes of 8.4 μM and 11.5 μM. The leishmanicidal activity of both meroditerpenes was independent of nitric oxide (NO) production, but the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) may be at least partially responsible for the amastigote killing. Our results suggest that the lipophilic extract of S. zonale may represent an important source of compounds for the development of anti-Leishmania drugs. PMID:27618071

Zonal drift velocities of the ionospheric plasma bubbles over brazilian region using oi630nm airglow digital images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arruda, D. C. S.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Abdu, M. A.; Castilho, V. M.; Takahashi, H.

The zonal drift velocities of the ionospheric plasma bubbles over the Brazilian region are analyzed in this study that is based on OI630nm airglow digital images. These digital images were obtained by an all-sky imager system between October 1998 and August 2000, at Cachoeira Paulista (22.5°S, 45°W), a low latitude region. In this period, 138 nights of OI 630 nm airglow experiments were carried out of which 30 nights detected the ionospheric plasma bubbles. These 30 nights correspond to magnetically quiet days (ΣK_P<24+) and were grouped according approximately to their season. KEY WORDS: Imager System, Ionospheric Plasma Bubbles, Zonal drift velocities, OI630nm.

Representativeness of single lidar stations and SBUV overpasses in zonally averaged ozone layered means, their trends and the role of proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Zerefos, C. S.; Kapsomenakis, J. N.; Eleftheratos, K.; Tourpali, K.; Hubert, D.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Steinbrecht, W.; Frith, S. M.; Sofieva, V.

2017-12-01

The paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations and SBUV overpasses in searching for trends in the vertical ozone profiles. It was found that from the lower to the upper stratosphere single or grouped stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from SBUV overpasses in a global perspective. The best representativeness in vertical ozone profiles is found within 5 degrees of latitude north or south of any LIDAR station or SBUV overpasses at which the latitude range is expanded as we move to the upper stratospheric layers. The paper includes a detailed analysis on a ranking of proxy footprints in the vertical ozone profiles. Major proxies studied are of different kinds: those outside of the earth system (solar cycle), those who represent dynamic processes (the QBO, the AO, AAO, ENSO), the volcanic aerosol component (AOD) and the manmade contribution to chemistry (EESC). The trends have been studied after removal of proxies from the total available SBUV records during the period 1980-2015. As seen in the detailed contributions of the proxies major contributions come from chemistry, the solar cycle and AOD. It appears that at some particular years the synergistic contribution of proxies which although contribute smaller amplitudes to ozone individually, when composited can result to anomalies that may influence the long term change or trend in the ozone profiles. Notable periods for the synergistic negative anomalies can be seen in 1983, 1985, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013. During all these years ozone at about 24 km dropped below -6% of the mean. The so-called "inflection point" between 1997 and 1999 marks the large reduction of the significant negative ozone trends, followed by the recent period of positive ozone change 1998-2015 which is observed above 15 hPa whose significance remains to be proven due to its smaller period in comparison to the total period of 36 years of ozone profiles (1980-2015).

Free-free opacity in dense plasmas with an average atom model

DOE PAGES

Shaffer, Nathaniel R.; Ferris, Natalie G.; Colgan, James Patrick; ...

2017-02-28

A model for the free-free opacity of dense plasmas is presented. The model uses a previously developed average atom model, together with the Kubo-Greenwood model for optical conductivity. This, in turn, is used to calculate the opacity with the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relations. Furthermore, comparisons to other methods for dense deuterium results in excellent agreement with DFT-MD simulations, and reasonable agreement with a simple Yukawa screening model corrected to satisfy the conductivity sum rule.

Free-free opacity in dense plasmas with an average atom model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaffer, Nathaniel R.; Ferris, Natalie G.; Colgan, James Patrick

A model for the free-free opacity of dense plasmas is presented. The model uses a previously developed average atom model, together with the Kubo-Greenwood model for optical conductivity. This, in turn, is used to calculate the opacity with the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relations. Furthermore, comparisons to other methods for dense deuterium results in excellent agreement with DFT-MD simulations, and reasonable agreement with a simple Yukawa screening model corrected to satisfy the conductivity sum rule.

Tertiary instability of zonal flows within the Wigner-Moyal formulation of drift turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Hongxuan; Ruiz, D. E.; Dodin, I. Y.

2017-10-01

The stability of zonal flows (ZFs) is analyzed within the generalized-Hasegawa-Mima model. The necessary and sufficient condition for a ZF instability, which is also known as the tertiary instability, is identified. The qualitative physics behind the tertiary instability is explained using the recently developed Wigner-Moyal formulation and the corresponding wave kinetic equation (WKE) in the geometrical-optics (GO) limit. By analyzing the drifton phase space trajectories, we find that the corrections proposed in Ref. to the WKE are critical for capturing the spatial scales characteristic for the tertiary instability. That said, we also find that this instability itself cannot be adequately described within a GO formulation in principle. Using the Wigner-Moyal equations, which capture diffraction, we analytically derive the tertiary-instability growth rate and compare it with numerical simulations. The research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy.

SPCZ zonal events and downstream influence on surface ocean conditions in the Indonesian Throughflow region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linsley, Braddock K.; Wu, Henry C.; Rixen, Tim; Charles, Christopher D.; Gordon, Arnold L.; Moore, Michael D.

2017-01-01

Seasonal surface freshening of the Makassar Strait, the main conduit of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), is a key factor controlling the ITF. Here we present a 262 year reconstruction of seasonal sea-surface-salinity variability from 1742 to 2004 Common Era by using coral δ18O records from the central Makassar Strait. Our record reveals persistent seasonal freshening and also years with significant truncations of seasonal freshening that correlate exactly with South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) zonal events >4000 km to the east. During these events, the SPCZ dramatically rotates 15° north to near the equator and stronger westward flowing South Pacific boundary currents force higher-salinity water through the Makassar Strait in February-May halting the normal seasonal freshening in the strait. By these teleconnections, our Makassar coral δ18O series provides the first record of the recurrence interval of these zonal SPCZ events and demonstrates that they have occurred on a semiregular basis since the mid-1700s.

A vertically integrated snow/ice model over land/sea for climate models. I - Development. II - Impact on orbital change experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

1988-01-01

A vertically integrated formulation (VIF) model for sea ice/snow and land snow is discussed which can simulate the nonlinear effects of heat storage and transfer through the layers of snow and ice. The VIF demonstates the accuracy of the multilayer formulation, while benefitting from the computational flexibility of linear formulations. In the second part, the model is implemented in a seasonal dynamic zonally averaged climate model. It is found that, in response to a change between extreme high and low summer insolation orbits, the winter orbital change dominates over the opposite summer change for sea ice. For snow over land the shorter but more pronounced summer orbital change is shown to dominate.

Two-Point Turbulence Closure Applied to Variable Resolution Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girimaji, Sharath S.; Rubinstein, Robert

2011-01-01

Variable resolution methods have become frontline CFD tools, but in order to take full advantage of this promising new technology, more formal theoretical development is desirable. Two general classes of variable resolution methods can be identified: hybrid or zonal methods in which RANS and LES models are solved in different flow regions, and bridging or seamless models which interpolate smoothly between RANS and LES. This paper considers the formulation of bridging methods using methods of two-point closure theory. The fundamental problem is to derive a subgrid two-equation model. We compare and reconcile two different approaches to this goal: the Partially Integrated Transport Model, and the Partially Averaged Navier-Stokes method.

Sensitivity of Gravity Wave Fluxes to Interannual Variations in Tropical Convection and Zonal Wind.

PubMed

Alexander, M Joan; Ortland, David A; Grimsdell, Alison W; Kim, Ji-Eun

2017-09-01

Using an idealized model framework with high-frequency tropical latent heating variability derived from global satellite observations of precipitation and clouds, the authors examine the properties and effects of gravity waves in the lower stratosphere, contrasting conditions in an El Niño year and a La Niña year. The model generates a broad spectrum of tropical waves including planetary-scale waves through mesoscale gravity waves. The authors compare modeled monthly mean regional variations in wind and temperature with reanalyses and validate the modeled gravity waves using satellite- and balloon-based estimates of gravity wave momentum flux. Some interesting changes in the gravity spectrum of momentum flux are found in the model, which are discussed in terms of the interannual variations in clouds, precipitation, and large-scale winds. While regional variations in clouds, precipitation, and winds are dramatic, the mean gravity wave zonal momentum fluxes entering the stratosphere differ by only 11%. The modeled intermittency in gravity wave momentum flux is shown to be very realistic compared to observations, and the largest-amplitude waves are related to significant gravity wave drag forces in the lowermost stratosphere. This strong intermittency is generally absent or weak in climate models because of deficiencies in parameterizations of gravity wave intermittency. These results suggest a way forward to improve model representations of the lowermost stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation winds and teleconnections.

Evidence for wavelike anomalies with short meridional and large zonal scales in the lower stratospheric temperature field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, J. L.; Short, D. A.

1981-01-01

Global microwave brightness temperature measurements are analyzed to investigate the range of meridional wavelengths 2000-3000 km where spectral studies reveal larger than expected variance. The data, from the TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit, are sensitive to lower stratospheric temperatures (30-150 mb). The results reveal striking temperature anomalies with short meridional wavelengths (2000-3000 km) and long zonal wavelengths (zonal wavenumbers 1-4). The anomalies, with amplitudes approximately 1-2 K, extend from the equatorial region to at least as high as 70 deg N and 70 deg S during January 1979. The features exhibit slow eastward movement or else are nearly stationary for several days. In the Northern Hemisphere, comparison with NMC data reveals that the strongest features tend to be associated with major jet streams.

Engineering zonal cartilage through bioprinting collagen type II hydrogel constructs with biomimetic chondrocyte density gradient.

PubMed

Ren, Xiang; Wang, Fuyou; Chen, Cheng; Gong, Xiaoyuan; Yin, Li; Yang, Liu

2016-07-20

Cartilage tissue engineering is a promising approach for repairing and regenerating cartilage tissue. To date, attempts have been made to construct zonal cartilage that mimics the cartilaginous matrix in different zones. However, little attention has been paid to the chondrocyte density gradient within the articular cartilage. We hypothesized that the chondrocyte density gradient plays an important role in forming the zonal distribution of extracellular matrix (ECM). In this study, collagen type II hydrogel/chondrocyte constructs were fabricated using a bioprinter. Three groups were created according to the total cell seeding density in collagen type II pre-gel: Group A, 2 × 10(7) cells/mL; Group B, 1 × 10(7) cells/mL; and Group C, 0.5 × 10(7) cells/mL. Each group included two types of construct: one with a biomimetic chondrocyte density gradient and the other with a single cell density. The constructs were cultured in vitro and harvested at 0, 1, 2, and 3 weeks for cell viability testing, reverse-transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), biochemical assays, and histological analysis. We found that total ECM production was positively correlated with the total cell density in the early culture stage, that the cell density gradient distribution resulted in a gradient distribution of ECM, and that the chondrocytes' biosynthetic ability was affected by both the total cell density and the cell distribution pattern. Our results suggested that zonal engineered cartilage could be fabricated by bioprinting collagen type II hydrogel constructs with a biomimetic cell density gradient. Both the total cell density and the cell distribution pattern should be optimized to achieve synergistic biological effects.

A model for closing the inviscid form of the average-passage equation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adamczyk, J. J.; Mulac, R. A.; Celestina, M. L.

1985-01-01

A mathematical model is proposed for closing or mathematically completing the system of equations which describes the time average flow field through the blade passages of multistage turbomachinery. These equations referred to as the average passage equation system govern a conceptual model which has proven useful in turbomachinery aerodynamic design and analysis. The closure model is developed so as to insure a consistency between these equations and the axisymmetric through flow equations. The closure model was incorporated into a computer code for use in simulating the flow field about a high speed counter rotating propeller and a high speed fan stage. Results from these simulations are presented.

EnviroAtlas - Average Annual Precipitation 1981-2010 by HUC12 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This EnviroAtlas dataset provides the average annual precipitation by 12-digit Hydrologic Unit (HUC). The values were estimated from maps produced by the PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University. The original data was at the scale of 800 m grid cells representing average precipitation from 1981-2010 in mm. The data was converted to inches of precipitation and then zonal statistics were estimated for a final value of average annual precipitation for each 12 digit HUC. For more information about the original dataset please refer to the PRISM website at http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

A model of the saturation of coupled electron and ion scale gyrokinetic turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staebler, Gary M.; Howard, Nathan T.; Candy, Jeffrey M.

A new paradigm of zonal flow mixing as the mechanism by which zonal E × B fluctuations impact the saturation of gyrokinetic turbulence has recently been deduced from the nonlinear 2D spectrum of electric potential fluctuations in gyrokinetic simulations. These state of the art simulations span the physical scales of both ion and electron turbulence. It was found that the zonal flow mixing rate, rather than zonal flow shearing rate, competes with linear growth at both electron and ion scales. A model for saturation of the turbulence by the zonal flow mixing was developed and applied to the quasilinear trappedmore » gyro-Landau fluid transport model (TGLF). The first validation tests of the new saturation model are reported in this paper with data from L-mode and high-β p regime discharges from the DIII-D tokamak. Lastly, the shortfall in the predicted L-mode edge electron energy transport is improved with the new saturation model for these discharges but additional multiscale simulations are required in order to verify the safety factor and collisionality dependencies found in the modeling.« less

A model of the saturation of coupled electron and ion scale gyrokinetic turbulence

DOE PAGES

Staebler, Gary M.; Howard, Nathan T.; Candy, Jeffrey M.; ...

2017-05-09

A new paradigm of zonal flow mixing as the mechanism by which zonal E × B fluctuations impact the saturation of gyrokinetic turbulence has recently been deduced from the nonlinear 2D spectrum of electric potential fluctuations in gyrokinetic simulations. These state of the art simulations span the physical scales of both ion and electron turbulence. It was found that the zonal flow mixing rate, rather than zonal flow shearing rate, competes with linear growth at both electron and ion scales. A model for saturation of the turbulence by the zonal flow mixing was developed and applied to the quasilinear trappedmore » gyro-Landau fluid transport model (TGLF). The first validation tests of the new saturation model are reported in this paper with data from L-mode and high-β p regime discharges from the DIII-D tokamak. Lastly, the shortfall in the predicted L-mode edge electron energy transport is improved with the new saturation model for these discharges but additional multiscale simulations are required in order to verify the safety factor and collisionality dependencies found in the modeling.« less

Parameterisation of rainfall-runoff models for forecasting low and average flows, I: Conceptual modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castiglioni, S.; Toth, E.

2009-04-01

In the calibration procedure of continuously-simulating models, the hydrologist has to choose which part of the observed hydrograph is most important to fit, either implicitly, through the visual agreement in manual calibration, or explicitly, through the choice of the objective function(s). Changing the objective functions it is in fact possible to emphasise different kind of errors, giving them more weight in the calibration phase. The objective functions used for calibrating hydrological models are generally of the quadratic type (mean squared error, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, etc) and are therefore oversensitive to high and extreme error values, that typically correspond to high and extreme streamflow values. This is appropriate when, like in the majority of streamflow forecasting applications, the focus is on the ability to reproduce potentially dangerous flood events; on the contrary, if the aim of the modelling is the reproduction of low and average flows, as it is the case in water resource management problems, this may result in a deterioration of the forecasting performance. This contribution presents the results of a series of automatic calibration experiments of a continuously-simulating rainfall-runoff model applied over several real-world case-studies, where the objective function is chosen so to highlight the fit of average and low flows. In this work a simple conceptual model will be used, of the lumped type, with a relatively low number of parameters to be calibrated. The experiments will be carried out for a set of case-study watersheds in Central Italy, covering an extremely wide range of geo-morphologic conditions and for whom at least five years of contemporary daily series of streamflow, precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates are available. Different objective functions will be tested in calibration and the results will be compared, over validation data, against those obtained with traditional squared

Quaternion Averaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis; Cheng, Yang; Crassidis, John L.; Oshman, Yaakov

2007-01-01

Many applications require an algorithm that averages quaternions in an optimal manner. For example, when combining the quaternion outputs of multiple star trackers having this output capability, it is desirable to properly average the quaternions without recomputing the attitude from the the raw star tracker data. Other applications requiring some sort of optimal quaternion averaging include particle filtering and multiple-model adaptive estimation, where weighted quaternions are used to determine the quaternion estimate. For spacecraft attitude estimation applications, derives an optimal averaging scheme to compute the average of a set of weighted attitude matrices using the singular value decomposition method. Focusing on a 4-dimensional quaternion Gaussian distribution on the unit hypersphere, provides an approach to computing the average quaternion by minimizing a quaternion cost function that is equivalent to the attitude matrix cost function Motivated by and extending its results, this Note derives an algorithm that deterniines an optimal average quaternion from a set of scalar- or matrix-weighted quaternions. Rirthermore, a sufficient condition for the uniqueness of the average quaternion, and the equivalence of the mininiization problem, stated herein, to maximum likelihood estimation, are shown.

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of the Flow in a Model SCRamjet Cavity Flameholder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baurle, R. A.

2016-01-01

Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. Experimental data available for this configuration include velocity statistics obtained from particle image velocimetry. Several turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This e ort was undertaken to not only assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community, but to also begin to understand how this capability can best be used to augment standard Reynolds-averaged simulations. The numerical errors were quantified for the steady-state simulations, and at least qualitatively assessed for the scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results displayed a high degree of variability when comparing the flameholder fuel distributions obtained from each turbulence model. This prompted the consideration of applying the higher-fidelity scale-resolving simulations as a surrogate "truth" model to calibrate the Reynolds-averaged closures in a non-reacting setting prior to their use for the combusting simulations. In general, the Reynolds-averaged velocity profile predictions at the lowest fueling level matched the particle imaging measurements almost as well as was observed for the non-reacting condition. However, the velocity field predictions proved to be more sensitive to the flameholder fueling rate than was indicated in the measurements.

Subcellular fractionation by zonal centrifugation of glucose-repressed anaerobically grown Saccharomyces carlsbergensis

PubMed Central

Cartledge, T. G.; Lloyd, D.

1972-01-01

1. Homogenates were prepared from sphaeroplasts of anaerobically grown, glucoserepressed Saccharomyces carlsbergensis, and the distributions of marker enzymes investigated after zonal centrifugation on sucrose gradients containing 2mm-MgCl2. 2. These homogenates contained no detectable cytochrome c oxidase, succinate–cytochrome c oxidoreductase, succinate–ferricyanide oxidoreductase, l(+)-lactate–cytochrome c oxidoreductase or catalase. Cytochromes a+a3 and c were not detected. 3. Zonal centrifugation of whole homogenates indicated complex density distributions of the sedimentable portions of NADH– and NADPH–cytochrome c oxidoreductases, adenosine triphosphatases (ATPases), adenosine pyrophosphatase (ADPase), pyrophosphatase and acid p-nitrophenyl phosphatase. Several different ATPases were distinguished on the basis of their sensitivities to oligomycin and ouabain. 4. Differential centrifugation of whole homogenates at 105g-min left 80–90% of the protein, dithionite-reducible cytochrome b, acid hydrolases and pyrophosphatase in a supernatant (S1) together with 65 and 56% of the NADH– and NADPH–cytochrome c oxidoreductases respectively, 25% of the ATPases and 71% of the adenosine monophosphatase. 5. Further analysis of supernatant S1 revealed the presence of a class of small particles containing NADPH–cytochrome c oxidoreductases and ATPases. 6. At least four different populations of large particles were distinguished. 7. Electron microscopy indicated that one of these corresponded to `promitochondria' as described by other workers. ImagesPLATE 1PLATE 2PLATE 3 PMID:4405573

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

Linear simulation of the stationary eddies in a GCM. II - The 'Mountain' model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nigam, Sumant; Held, Isaac M.; Lyons, Steven W.

1988-01-01

Linear stationary wave theory is used to account for zonal asymmetries of the winter-averaged tropospheric circulation obtained in a GCM. The eddy zonal velocity field in the upper troposphere indicates that the orographic and thermal plus transient contributions are nearly equal in amplitude, while the eddy meridional velocity field (which is dominated by shorter zonal scales) shows the orographic contribution to be dominant. The two contributions are found to be roughly in phase over the east Asian coast, and they contribute roughly equal amounts to the low level Siberian high. Results indicate that the 300 mb extratropical response to tropical forcing reaches 50 gpm over Alaska, and that the responses to sensible heating and lower tropospheric transients are strongly anticorrelated.

How Reliable is Bayesian Model Averaging Under Noisy Data? Statistical Assessment and Implications for Robust Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2014-05-01

Bayesian model averaging ranks the predictive capabilities of alternative conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. The individual models are weighted with their posterior probability to be the best one in the considered set of models. Finally, their predictions are combined into a robust weighted average and the predictive uncertainty can be quantified. This rigorous procedure does, however, not yet account for possible instabilities due to measurement noise in the calibration data set. This is a major drawback, since posterior model weights may suffer a lack of robustness related to the uncertainty in noisy data, which may compromise the reliability of model ranking. We present a new statistical concept to account for measurement noise as source of uncertainty for the weights in Bayesian model averaging. Our suggested upgrade reflects the limited information content of data for the purpose of model selection. It allows us to assess the significance of the determined posterior model weights, the confidence in model selection, and the accuracy of the quantified predictive uncertainty. Our approach rests on a brute-force Monte Carlo framework. We determine the robustness of model weights against measurement noise by repeatedly perturbing the observed data with random realizations of measurement error. Then, we analyze the induced variability in posterior model weights and introduce this "weighting variance" as an additional term into the overall prediction uncertainty analysis scheme. We further determine the theoretical upper limit in performance of the model set which is imposed by measurement noise. As an extension to the merely relative model ranking, this analysis provides a measure of absolute model performance. To finally decide, whether better data or longer time series are needed to ensure a robust basis for model selection, we resample the measurement time series and assess the convergence of model weights for increasing time series length. We illustrate

Influence of the parallel nonlinearity on zonal flows and heat transport in global gyrokinetic particle-in-cell simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolliet, S.; McMillan, B. F.; Vernay, T.; Villard, L.; Hatzky, R.; Bottino, A.; Angelino, P.

2009-07-01

In this paper, the influence of the parallel nonlinearity on zonal flows and heat transport in global particle-in-cell ion-temperature-gradient simulations is studied. Although this term is in theory orders of magnitude smaller than the others, several authors [L. Villard, P. Angelino, A. Bottino et al., Plasma Phys. Contr. Fusion 46, B51 (2004); L. Villard, S. J. Allfrey, A. Bottino et al., Nucl. Fusion 44, 172 (2004); J. C. Kniep, J. N. G. Leboeuf, and V. C. Decyck, Comput. Phys. Commun. 164, 98 (2004); J. Candy, R. E. Waltz, S. E. Parker et al., Phys. Plasmas 13, 074501 (2006)] found different results on its role. The study is performed using the global gyrokinetic particle-in-cell codes TORB (theta-pinch) [R. Hatzky, T. M. Tran, A. Könies et al., Phys. Plasmas 9, 898 (2002)] and ORB5 (tokamak geometry) [S. Jolliet, A. Bottino, P. Angelino et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 177, 409 (2007)]. In particular, it is demonstrated that the parallel nonlinearity, while important for energy conservation, affects the zonal electric field only if the simulation is noise dominated. When a proper convergence is reached, the influence of parallel nonlinearity on the zonal electric field, if any, is shown to be small for both the cases of decaying and driven turbulence.

Net Influence of an Internally Generated Guasi-biennial Oscillation on Modelled Stratospheric Climate and Chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke David; Newman, Paul A.; Song, InSun

2013-01-01

A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

Mean-field velocity difference model considering the average effect of multi-vehicle interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yan; Xue, Yu; Shi, Yin; Wei, Fang-ping; Lü, Liang-zhong; He, Hong-di

2018-06-01

In this paper, a mean-field velocity difference model(MFVD) is proposed to describe the average effect of multi-vehicle interactions on the whole road. By stability analysis, the stability condition of traffic system is obtained. Comparison with stability of full velocity-difference (FVD) model and the completeness of MFVD model are discussed. The mKdV equation is derived from MFVD model through nonlinear analysis to reveal the traffic jams in the form of the kink-antikink density wave. Then the numerical simulation is performed and the results illustrate that the average effect of multi-vehicle interactions plays an important role in effectively suppressing traffic jam. The increase strength of the mean-field velocity difference in MFVD model can rapidly reduce traffic jam and enhance the stability of traffic system.

Jupiter cloud morphology and zonal winds from ground-based observations before and during Juno's first perijove

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hueso, R.; Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Iñurrigarro, P.; Rojas, J. F.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Mendikoa, I.; Gómez-Forrellad, J. M.; Go, C.; Peach, D.; Colas, F.; Vedovato, M.

2017-05-01

We analyze Jupiter observations between December 2015 and August 2016 in the 0.38-1.7 μm wavelength range from the PlanetCam instrument at the 2.2 m telescope at Calar Alto Observatory and in the optical range by amateur observers contributing to the Planetary Virtual Observatory Laboratory. Over this time Jupiter was in a quiescent state without notable disturbances. Analysis of ground-based images and Hubble Space Telescope observations in February 2016 allowed the retrieval of mean zonal winds from -74.5° to +73.2°. These winds did not change over 2016 or when compared with winds from previous years with the sole exception of intense zonal winds at the North Temperate Belt. We also present results concerning the major wave systems in the North Equatorial Belt and in the upper polar hazes visible in methane absorption bands, a description of the planet's overall cloud morphology and observations of Jupiter hours before Juno's orbit insertion.

Towards a more consistent picture of isopycnal mixing in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M. A. S.; Koszalka, I.; Abernathey, R. P.

2014-12-01

The stirring of tracers by mesoscale eddies along isopycnal surfaces is often represented in coarse-resolution models by the Redi diffusion parameter ARedi. Theoretical treatments of ARedi often assume it should scale as the eddy energy or the growth rate of mesoscale eddies,. producing a picture where it is high in boundary currents and low )of order a few hundred m2/s) in the gyre interiors. However, observational estimates suggest that ARedi should be very large (of order thousands of m2/s) in the gyre interior. We present results of recent simulations comparing a range of spatially constant values ARedi (with values of 400, 800, 1200 and 2400 m2/s) to a spatially resolved estimate based on altimetry and a zonally averaged version of the same estimate. In general, increasing the ARedi coefficient destratifies and warms the high latitudes. Relative to our control simulation, the spatially dependent coefficient is lower in the Southern Ocean, but high in the North Pacific, and so the temperature changes mirror this. We also examine the response of ocean hypoxia to these changes. In general, the zonally averaged version of the altimetry-based estimate of ARedi does not capture the full 2d representation.

ULTRA-WIDE-FIELD FUNDUS AUTOFLUORESCENCE FINDINGS IN PATIENTS WITH ACUTE ZONAL OCCULT OUTER RETINOPATHY.

PubMed

Shifera, Amde Selassie; Pennesi, Mark E; Yang, Paul; Lin, Phoebe

2017-06-01

To determine whether ultra-wide-field fundus autofluorescence (UWFFAF) findings in acute zonal occult outer retinopathy correlated well with perimetry, optical coherence tomography, and electroretinography findings. Retrospective observational study on 16 eyes of 10 subjects with AZOOR seen at a single referral center from October 2012 to March 2015 who had UWFFAF performed. Chi-square analysis was performed to compare categorical variables, and Mann-Whitney U test used for comparisons of nonparametric continuous variables. All eyes examined within 3 months of symptom onset (five of the five eyes) had diffusely hyperautofluorescent areas on UWFFAF. The remaining eyes contained hypoautofluorescent lesions with hyperautofluorescent borders. In 11/16 (68.8%) eyes, UWFFAF showed the full extent of lesions that would not have been possible with standard fundus autofluorescence centered on the fovea. There were 3 patterns of spread: centrifugal spread (7/16, 43.8%), centripetal spread (5/16, 31.3%), and centrifugal + centripetal spread (4/16, 25.0%). The UWFFAF lesions corresponded well with perimetric, optical coherence tomography, and electroretinography abnormalities. The UWFFAF along with optical coherence tomography can be useful in the evaluation and monitoring of acute zonal occult outer retinopathy patients.

On Diffusive Climatological Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffel, D. H.; Drazin, P. G.

1981-11-01

A simple, zonally and annually averaged, energy-balance climatological model with diffusive heat transport and nonlinear albedo feedback is solved numerically. Some parameters of the model are varied, one by one, to find the resultant effects on the steady solution representing the climate. In particular, the outward radiation flux, the insulation distribution and the albedo parameterization are varied. We have found an accurate yet simple analytic expression for the mean annual insolation as a function of latitude and the obliquity of the Earth's rotation axis; this has enabled us to consider the effects of the oscillation of the obliquity. We have used a continuous albedo function which fits the observed values; it considerably reduces the sensitivity of the model. Climatic cycles, calculated by solving the time-dependent equation when parameters change slowly and periodically, are compared qualitatively with paleoclimatic records.

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of

Global characteristics of zonal flows due to the effect of finite bandwidth in drift wave turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uzawa, K.; Li Jiquan; Kishimoto, Y.

2009-04-15

The spectral effect of the zonal flow (ZF) on its generation is investigated based on the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima turbulence model. It is found that the effect of finite ZF bandwidth qualitatively changes the characteristics of ZF instability. A spatially localized (namely, global) nonlinear ZF state with an enhanced, unique growth rate for all spectral components is created under a given turbulent fluctuation. It is identified that such state originates from the successive cross couplings among Fourier components of the ZF and turbulence spectra through the sideband modulation. Furthermore, it is observed that the growth rate of the global ZF is determinedmore » not only by the spectral distribution and amplitudes of turbulent pumps as usual, but also statistically by the turbulence structure, namely, their probabilistic initial phase factors. A ten-wave coupling model of the ZF modulation instability involving the essential effect of the ZF spectrum is developed to clarify the basic features of the global nonlinear ZF state.« less

Modeling of Density-Dependent Flow based on the Thermodynamically Constrained Averaging Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigand, T. M.; Schultz, P. B.; Kelley, C. T.; Miller, C. T.; Gray, W. G.

2016-12-01

The thermodynamically constrained averaging theory (TCAT) has been used to formulate general classes of porous medium models, including new models for density-dependent flow. The TCAT approach provides advantages that include a firm connection between the microscale, or pore scale, and the macroscale; a thermodynamically consistent basis; explicit inclusion of factors such as a diffusion that arises from gradients associated with pressure and activity and the ability to describe both high and low concentration displacement. The TCAT model is presented and closure relations for the TCAT model are postulated based on microscale averages and a parameter estimation is performed on a subset of the experimental data. Due to the sharpness of the fronts, an adaptive moving mesh technique was used to ensure grid independent solutions within the run time constraints. The optimized parameters are then used for forward simulations and compared to the set of experimental data not used for the parameter estimation.

Validation of a mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model for premixed lean hydrogen flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlup, Jason; Blanquart, Guillaume

2018-03-01

The mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model originally proposed by Chapman and Cowling is validated using multiple flame configurations. Simulations using detailed hydrogen chemistry are done on one-, two-, and three-dimensional flames. The analysis spans flat and stretched, steady and unsteady, and laminar and turbulent flames. Quantitative and qualitative results using the thermal diffusion model compare very well with the more complex multicomponent diffusion model. Comparisons are made using flame speeds, surface areas, species profiles, and chemical source terms. Once validated, this model is applied to three-dimensional laminar and turbulent flames. For these cases, thermal diffusion causes an increase in the propagation speed of the flames as well as increased product chemical source terms in regions of high positive curvature. The results illustrate the necessity for including thermal diffusion, and the accuracy and computational efficiency of the mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model.

FPI observations of nighttime mesospheric and thermospheric winds in China and their comparisons with HWM07

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wei

2015-04-01

We analyzed the nighttime horizontal neutral winds in the middle atmosphere (˜87 and ˜98 km) and thermosphere (˜250 km) derived from a Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI), which was installed at Xinglong station (40.2◦ N, 117.4◦ E) in central China. The wind data covered the period from April 2010 to July 2012. We studied the annual, semiannual and terannual variations of the midnight winds at ˜87 km, ˜98 km and ˜250 km for the first time and compared them with Horizontal Wind Model 2007 (HWM07). Our results show the following: (1) at ˜ 87 km, both the observed and model zonal winds have similar phases in the annual and semiannual variations. However, the HWM07 amplitudes are much larger. (2) At ˜98 km, the model shows strong eastward wind in the summer solstice, resulting in a large annual variation, while the observed strongest component is semiannual. The observation and model midnight meridional winds agree well. Both are equatorward throughout the year and have small amplitudes in the annual and semiannual variations. (3) There are large discrepancies between the observed and HWM07 winds at ˜250 km. This discrepancy is largely due to the strong semiannual zonal wind in the model and the phase difference in the annual variation of the meridional wind. The FPI annual variation coincides with the results from Arecibo, which has similar geomagnetic latitude as Xinglong station. In General, the consistency of FPI winds with model winds is better at ˜87 and ˜98 km than that at ˜250 km. We also studied the seasonally and monthly averaged nighttime winds. The most salient features include the following: (1) the seasonally averaged zonal winds at ˜87 and ˜98 km typically have small variations throughout the night. (2) The model zonal and meridional nighttime wind variations are typically much larger than those of observations at ˜87 km and ˜98 km. (3) At ˜250 km, model zonal wind compares well with the observation in the winter. For spring and autumn

Zonal characterization of hillslope erosion processes in a semi-arid high mountain catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, Raquel; Millares, Agustín; Aguilar, Cristina; Moñino, Antonio; Ángel Losada, Miguel; José Polo, María

2013-04-01

Mediterranean and semi-arid catchments, generally suffer heterogeneous erosive processes at different spatio-temporal scales which produce, in a synergistic manner, a large amount of sediment supply. In mountainous catchments, the influence of pluvio-nival hydrological regime leads to a clear subdivision into homogeneous zones regarding the nature of hillslope processes. Here, a distinction could be addressed with 1) subsurface erosion due to saturated soil by intense snowmelt pulses and 2) steepest mid-mountain soil loss with rill/interrill, small-scale landslides and ephemeral or permanent gullying. Furthermore, the associated channels in these areas are formed by wide alluvial floodplains with important bedload contributions. This complexity conditions the evaluation of erosion and monitoring at catchment scale with elevated costs in time, devices and staff. The catchment of the Guadalfeo river encloses 1200 km², with important presence of snow in the summits height on its right margin, and semiarid low range hills with very erodible soils on its left margin. Gully erosion, landslides and stream bed-load processes, extremely actives in this area, are responsible of a real problem of soil loss and desertification with a high associated cost. This work suggests a methodology for the zonal assessment of different erosive processes taking into account the described heterogeneity and the reduction of research costs. To do this, high resolution bathymetric and topographic surveys supported in a reservoir (110 hm3) allowed the differentiation of bedload and suspended sediments as both are deposited in different locations and hence the validation of the hillslope sediment yield. In parallel, measurements in homogeneous areas were selected in order to obtain zonal results to achieve the representative processes involved. The use of portable samplers allows the remote changing of sampling routines, and thus to capture the temporal scale of the processes and the

An averaging battery model for a lead-acid battery operating in an electric car

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bozek, J. M.

1979-01-01

A battery model is developed based on time averaging the current or power, and is shown to be an effective means of predicting the performance of a lead acid battery. The effectiveness of this battery model was tested on battery discharge profiles expected during the operation of an electric vehicle following the various SAE J227a driving schedules. The averaging model predicts the performance of a battery that is periodically charged (regenerated) if the regeneration energy is assumed to be converted to retrievable electrochemical energy on a one-to-one basis.

A Tidally Averaged Sediment-Transport Model for San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lionberger, Megan A.; Schoellhamer, David H.

2009-01-01

A tidally averaged sediment-transport model of San Francisco Bay was incorporated into a tidally averaged salinity box model previously developed and calibrated using salinity, a conservative tracer (Uncles and Peterson, 1995; Knowles, 1996). The Bay is represented in the model by 50 segments composed of two layers: one representing the channel (>5-meter depth) and the other the shallows (0- to 5-meter depth). Calculations are made using a daily time step and simulations can be made on the decadal time scale. The sediment-transport model includes an erosion-deposition algorithm, a bed-sediment algorithm, and sediment boundary conditions. Erosion and deposition of bed sediments are calculated explicitly, and suspended sediment is transported by implicitly solving the advection-dispersion equation. The bed-sediment model simulates the increase in bed strength with depth, owing to consolidation of fine sediments that make up San Francisco Bay mud. The model is calibrated to either net sedimentation calculated from bathymetric-change data or measured suspended-sediment concentration. Specified boundary conditions are the tributary fluxes of suspended sediment and suspended-sediment concentration in the Pacific Ocean. Results of model calibration and validation show that the model simulates the trends in suspended-sediment concentration associated with tidal fluctuations, residual velocity, and wind stress well, although the spring neap tidal suspended-sediment concentration variability was consistently underestimated. Model validation also showed poor simulation of seasonal sediment pulses from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta at Point San Pablo because the pulses enter the Bay over only a few days and the fate of the pulses is determined by intra-tidal deposition and resuspension that are not included in this tidally averaged model. The model was calibrated to net-basin sedimentation to calculate budgets of sediment and sediment-associated contaminants. While

Climatology of the relationship of cusp-related density anomaly with zonal wind and large-scale FAC based on CHAMP observations: IMF By and solar cycle dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kervalishvili, Guram; Lühr, Hermann

2014-05-01

We present climatology of the relationship of cusp-related density enhancement with the neutral zonal wind velocity, large-scale field-aligned current (FAC), small-scale FAC, and electron temperature using the superposed epoch analysis (SEA) method. The dependence of these variables on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) By component orientation and solar cycle are of particular interest. In addition, the obtained results of relative density enhancement (ρrel), zonal wind, electron temperature and FAC are subdivided into three local seasons of 130 days each: local winter (1 January ±65 days), combined equinoxes (1 April ±32 days and 1 October ±32 days), and local summer (1 July ±65 days). Our investigation is based on CHAMP satellite observations and NASA/GSFC's OMNI online data set for solar maximum (Mar/2002-2007) and minimum (Mar/2004-2009) conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. The SEA technique uses the time and location of the thermospheric mass density anomaly peaks as reference parameters. The relative amplitude of cusp-related density enhancement does on average not depend on the IMF By orientation, solar cycle phase, and local season. Also, it is apparent that the IMF By amplitude does not have a big influence on the relative amplitude of the density anomaly. Conversely, there exists a good correlation between ρrel and the negative amplitude of IMF Bz prevailing about half an hour earlier. In the cusp region, both large-scale FAC distribution and thermospheric zonal wind velocity exhibit a clear dependence on the IMF By orientation. In the case of positive (negative) IMF By there is a systematic imbalance between downward (upward) and upward (downward) FACs peaks equatorward and poleward of the reference point, respectively. The zonal wind velocity is directed towards west i.e. towards dawn in a geomagnetic latitude-magnetic local time (MLat-MLT) frame. This is true for all local seasons and solar conditions. The thermospheric density

Light propagation in the averaged universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bagheri, Samae; Schwarz, Dominik J., E-mail: s_bagheri@physik.uni-bielefeld.de, E-mail: dschwarz@physik.uni-bielefeld.de

Cosmic structures determine how light propagates through the Universe and consequently must be taken into account in the interpretation of observations. In the standard cosmological model at the largest scales, such structures are either ignored or treated as small perturbations to an isotropic and homogeneous Universe. This isotropic and homogeneous model is commonly assumed to emerge from some averaging process at the largest scales. We assume that there exists an averaging procedure that preserves the causal structure of space-time. Based on that assumption, we study the effects of averaging the geometry of space-time and derive an averaged version of themore » null geodesic equation of motion. For the averaged geometry we then assume a flat Friedmann-Lemaître (FL) model and find that light propagation in this averaged FL model is not given by null geodesics of that model, but rather by a modified light propagation equation that contains an effective Hubble expansion rate, which differs from the Hubble rate of the averaged space-time.« less

Design for and efficient dynamic climate model with realistic geography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, M. J.; Abeles, J.

1984-01-01

The long term climate sensitivity which include realistic atmospheric dynamics are severely restricted by the expense of integrating atmospheric general circulation models are discussed. Taking as an example models used at GSFC for this dynamic model is an alternative which is of much lower horizontal or vertical resolution. The model of Heid and Suarez uses only two levels in the vertical and, although it has conventional grid resolution in the meridional direction, horizontal resolution is reduced by keeping only a few degrees of freedom in the zonal wavenumber spectrum. Without zonally asymmetric forcing this model simulates a day in roughly 1/2 second on a CRAY. The model under discussion is a fully finite differenced, zonally asymmetric version of the Heid-Suarez model. It is anticipated that speeds can be obtained a few seconds a day roughly 50 times faster than moderate resolution, multilayer GCM's.

Educational Change Leadership through a New Zonal Theory Lens: Using Mathematics Curriculum Change as the Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamb, Janeen; Branson, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

This paper outlines actions that educational change leaders can take to better meet their curriculum change obligations and responsibilities. In order to do this we extend Vygotsky's (1978) zonal theory and its many extensions and elaborations by positioning educational change leadership within this theory. We rename the zones to Zone of Principal…

Inclusion of inhomogeneous deformation and strength characteristics in the problem on zonal disintegration of rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanyshev, AI; Belousova, OE

2018-03-01

The authors determine stress and deformation in a heterogeneous rock mass at the preset displacement and Cauchy stress vector at the boundary of an underground excavation. The influence of coordinates on Young’s modulus, shear modulus and ultimate strength is shown. It is found that regions of tension and compression alternate at the excavation boundary—i.e. zonal rock disintegration phenomenon is observed.

Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.

2014-11-01

Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural vs. model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty is far more important than model parametric uncertainty to estimate irrigation water requirement. Using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.

Influence of Averaging Preprocessing on Image Analysis with a Markov Random Field Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Hirotaka; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Okada, Masato

2018-02-01

This paper describes our investigations into the influence of averaging preprocessing on the performance of image analysis. Averaging preprocessing involves a trade-off: image averaging is often undertaken to reduce noise while the number of image data available for image analysis is decreased. We formulated a process of generating image data by using a Markov random field (MRF) model to achieve image analysis tasks such as image restoration and hyper-parameter estimation by a Bayesian approach. According to the notions of Bayesian inference, posterior distributions were analyzed to evaluate the influence of averaging. There are three main results. First, we found that the performance of image restoration with a predetermined value for hyper-parameters is invariant regardless of whether averaging is conducted. We then found that the performance of hyper-parameter estimation deteriorates due to averaging. Our analysis of the negative logarithm of the posterior probability, which is called the free energy based on an analogy with statistical mechanics, indicated that the confidence of hyper-parameter estimation remains higher without averaging. Finally, we found that when the hyper-parameters are estimated from the data, the performance of image restoration worsens as averaging is undertaken. We conclude that averaging adversely influences the performance of image analysis through hyper-parameter estimation.

A compound reconstructed prediction model for nonstationary climate processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Geli; Yang, Peicai

2005-07-01

Based on the idea of climate hierarchy and the theory of state space reconstruction, a local approximation prediction model with the compound structure is built for predicting some nonstationary climate process. By means of this model and the data sets consisting of north Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature, Asian zonal circulation index and monthly mean precipitation anomaly from 37 observation stations in the Inner Mongolia area of China (IMC), a regional prediction experiment for the winter precipitation of IMC is also carried out. When using the same sign ratio R between the prediction field and the actual field to measure the prediction accuracy, an averaged R of 63% given by 10 predictions samples is reached.

Selection for production-related traits in Pelargonium zonale: improved design and analysis make all the difference

PubMed Central

Molenaar, Heike; Glawe, Martin; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2017-01-01

Ornamental plant variety improvement is limited by current phenotyping approaches and neglected use of experimental designs. The present study was conducted to show the benefits of using an experimental design and corresponding analysis in ornamental breeding regarding simulated response to selection in Pelargonium zonale for production-related traits. This required establishment of phenotyping protocols for root formation and stem cutting counts, with which 974 genotypes were assessed in a two-phase experimental design. The present paper evaluates this protocol. The possibility of varietal improvement through indirect selection on secondary traits such as branch count and flower count was assessed by genetic correlations. Simulated response to selection varied greatly, depending on the genotypic variances of the breeding population and traits. A varietal improvement of over 20% is possible for stem cutting count, root formation, branch count and flower count. In contrast, indirect selection of stem cutting count by branch count or flower count was found to be ineffective. The established phenotypic protocols and two-phase experimental designs are valuable tools for breeding of P. zonale. PMID:28243453

Selection for production-related traits in Pelargonium zonale: improved design and analysis make all the difference.

PubMed

Molenaar, Heike; Glawe, Martin; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2017-01-01

Ornamental plant variety improvement is limited by current phenotyping approaches and neglected use of experimental designs. The present study was conducted to show the benefits of using an experimental design and corresponding analysis in ornamental breeding regarding simulated response to selection in Pelargonium zonale for production-related traits. This required establishment of phenotyping protocols for root formation and stem cutting counts, with which 974 genotypes were assessed in a two-phase experimental design. The present paper evaluates this protocol. The possibility of varietal improvement through indirect selection on secondary traits such as branch count and flower count was assessed by genetic correlations. Simulated response to selection varied greatly, depending on the genotypic variances of the breeding population and traits. A varietal improvement of over 20% is possible for stem cutting count, root formation, branch count and flower count. In contrast, indirect selection of stem cutting count by branch count or flower count was found to be ineffective. The established phenotypic protocols and two-phase experimental designs are valuable tools for breeding of P. zonale .

Contribution to the study of the zonal variation of the climate aridity in central northern Sahara (Algeria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benseghier-Hadjaidji, Fatiha; Talbi, Nadjib; Derridj, Arezki

2018-05-01

The environment degradation at the level of all its compartments which we notice at present, calls us to the risks that it would underestimate the climatic and consequently bioclimatic crisis there, in the North as in the South of the Mediterranean region. To protect the environment is not a luxury. In this respect, we wondered about the zonal variation of the climate aridity at the level of three bordering climatic stations: El-Oued, Touggourt and Ouargla. These are distant from 160 km on average some of the others. For that purpose, we based ourselves on the statistical tool the software "instat +" for the estimation of the ETP (PM) and afterward the determination of the pluvio-evapotranspiration "quotient P/ETP". For this analysis, the climatic data spread out over a period of 20 years. The results allowed to specify the aridity degree of the studied zone. So, they reveal a mitigation of the aridity of the climate in Touggourt and El-Oued while the hyper-aridity distinguishes well the Ouargla region. This approach contributes to a better knowledge of the dry ecosystems. This is important to indicate it to turn better in the eremologic search later.

Unsteady Airfoil Flow Solutions on Moving Zonal Grids

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-17

for the angle-of-attack of 15.5’, the comparisons diverge. This happens because of the different turbulence models used . At this angle- of attack, the...downstream in the wake . This vortex shedding phenomenon alters the chordwise pressure distribution on the upper surface of the airfoil resulting in higher...in- terest, turbulence modeling is used . Turbulence models are implemented with the time-averaged forms of the Navier-Stokes equations. Two widely

Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its Effect on Stratospheric H2O, CH4, and Age of Air with an Interactive Two-Dimensional Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-11-22

November 2002. [1] A zonally averaged photochemical–dynamical model of the middle atmosphere is used to simulate the quasi-biennial oscillation ( QBO ) and... QBO period. Comparable changes in prescribed tropical heating have a smaller effect on the QBO period. The response of tropical upwelling, and QBO ...wave forcing is smaller than in the Northern Hemisphere, increased forcing produces stronger equatorial upwelling and a longer QBO period. In the

Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.

2015-04-01

Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.

A Earth Outgoing Longwave Radiation Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shi-Keng

An Earth outgoing longwave radiation (OLWR) climate model has been constructed for radiation budget study. The model consists of the upward radiative transfer parameterization of Thompson and Warren (1982), the cloud cover model of Sherr et al. (1968) and a monthly average climatology defined by the data from Crutcher and Meserve (1971) and Taljaard et al. (1969). Additional required information is provided by the empirical 100mb water vapor mixing ratio equation of Harries (1976), and the mixing ratio interpolation scheme of Briegleb and Ramanathan (1982). Cloud top temperature is adjusted so that the calculation would agree with NOAA scanning radiometer measurements. Both clear sky and cloudy sky cases are calculated and discussed for global average, zonal average and world-wide distributed cases. The results agree well with the satellite observations. The clear sky case shows that the OLWR field is highly modulated by water vapor, especially in the tropics. The strongest longitudinal variation occurs in the tropics. This variation can be mostly explained by the strong water vapor gradient. Although in the zonal average case the tropics have a minimum in OLWR, the minimum is essentially contributed by a few very low flux regions, such as the Amazon, Indonesia and the Congo. There are regions in the tropics such that their OLWR is as large as that of the subtropics. In the high latitudes, where cold air contains less water vapor, OLWR is basically modulated by the surface temperature. Thus, the topographical heat capacity becomes a dominant factor in determining the distribution. Clouds enhance water vapor modulation of OLWR. Tropical clouds have the coldest cloud top temperatures. This again increases the longitudinal variation in the region. However, in the polar region, where temperature inversion is prominent, cloud top temperature is warmer than the surface. Hence, cloud has the effect of increasing OLWR. The implication of this cloud mechanism is that the

An ensemble Kalman filter for statistical estimation of physics constrained nonlinear regression models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harlim, John, E-mail: jharlim@psu.edu; Mahdi, Adam, E-mail: amahdi@ncsu.edu; Majda, Andrew J., E-mail: jonjon@cims.nyu.edu

2014-01-15

A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statistical–dynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partialmore » noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (east–west) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model.« less

Bayesian model averaging using particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling: Theory, concepts, and simulation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rings, Joerg; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Schoups, Gerrit; Huisman, Johan A.; Vereecken, Harry

2012-05-01

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different models. In recent years, this method has enjoyed widespread application and use in many fields of study to improve the spread-skill relationship of forecast ensembles. The BMA predictive probability density function (pdf) of any quantity of interest is a weighted average of pdfs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal to posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts, and reflect the individual models skill over a training (calibration) period. The original BMA approach presented by Raftery et al. (2005) assumes that the conditional pdf of each individual model is adequately described with a rather standard Gaussian or Gamma statistical distribution, possibly with a heteroscedastic variance. Here we analyze the advantages of using BMA with a flexible representation of the conditional pdf. A joint particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling framework is presented to derive analytically, as closely and consistently as possible, the evolving forecast density (conditional pdf) of each constituent ensemble member. The median forecasts and evolving conditional pdfs of the constituent models are subsequently combined using BMA to derive one overall predictive distribution. This paper introduces the theory and concepts of this new ensemble postprocessing method, and demonstrates its usefulness and applicability by numerical simulation of the rainfall-runoff transformation using discharge data from three different catchments in the contiguous United States. The revised BMA method receives significantly lower-prediction errors than the original default BMA method (due to filtering) with predictive uncertainty intervals that are substantially smaller but still statistically coherent (due to the use of a time-variant conditional pdf).

Modeling of structural uncertainties in Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes closures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emory, Michael; Larsson, Johan; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2013-11-01

Estimation of the uncertainty in numerical predictions by Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes closures is a vital step in building confidence in such predictions. An approach to model-form uncertainty quantification that does not assume the eddy-viscosity hypothesis to be exact is proposed. The methodology for estimation of uncertainty is demonstrated for plane channel flow, for a duct with secondary flows, and for the shock/boundary-layer interaction over a transonic bump.

Observations of the Mf ocean tide from Geosat altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cartwright, David E.; Ray, Richard D.

1990-01-01

Zonal averages of the 13.66-day Mf tide are derived from one year of Geosat altimetry records. The orbit errors are reduced by 1/revolution corrections taken over long (several day) arcs. The short-period tides are removed using a model previously derived from the same data. The Mf zonal averages indicate definite nonequilibrium character at nearly all latitudes. The imaginary admittances indicate a Q of at least 8; such a value is consistent with a simplified theory of coupled gravitational and vorticity modes and suggests a value for Proudman's 'friction period' about 123 days.

Weighed scalar averaging in LTB dust models: part II. A formalism of exact perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, Roberto A.

2013-03-01

We examine the exact perturbations that arise from the q-average formalism that was applied in the preceding article (part I) to Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi (LTB) models. By introducing an initial value parametrization, we show that all LTB scalars that take an FLRW ‘look-alike’ form (frequently used in the literature dealing with LTB models) follow as q-averages of covariant scalars that are common to FLRW models. These q-scalars determine for every averaging domain a unique FLRW background state through Darmois matching conditions at the domain boundary, though the definition of this background does not require an actual matching with an FLRW region (Swiss cheese-type models). Local perturbations describe the deviation from the FLRW background state through the local gradients of covariant scalars at the boundary of every comoving domain, while non-local perturbations do so in terms of the intuitive notion of a ‘contrast’ of local scalars with respect to FLRW reference values that emerge from q-averages assigned to the whole domain or the whole time slice in the asymptotic limit. We derive fluid flow evolution equations that completely determine the dynamics of the models in terms of the q-scalars and both types of perturbations. A rigorous formalism of exact spherical nonlinear perturbations is defined over the FLRW background state associated with the q-scalars, recovering the standard results of linear perturbation theory in the appropriate limit. We examine the notion of the amplitude and illustrate the differences between local and non-local perturbations by qualitative diagrams and through an example of a cosmic density void that follows from the numeric solution of the evolution equations.

Long period perturbations of earth satellite orbits. [Von Zeipel method and zonal harmonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, K. C.

1979-01-01

All the equations involved in extending the PS phi solution to include the long periodic and second order secular effects of the zonal harmonics are presented. Topics covered include DSphi elements and relations for their conconical transformation into the PS phi elements; the solution algorithm based on the Von Zeipel method; and the elimination of long periodic terms and analytical integration of primed variables. The equations were entered into the ASOP program, checked out, and verified. Comparisons with numerical integrations show the long period theory to be accurate within several meters after 800 revolutions.

Zonal-flow dynamics from a phase-space perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruiz, D. E.; Parker, J. B.; Shi, E. L.

The wave kinetic equation (WKE) describing drift-wave (DW) turbulence is widely used in the studies of zonal flows (ZFs) emerging from DW turbulence. But, this formulation neglects the exchange of enstrophy between DWs and ZFs and also ignores effects beyond the geometrical-optics limit. Furthermore, we derive a modified theory that takes both of these effects into account, while still treating DW quanta (“driftons”) as particles in phase space. The drifton dynamics is described by an equation of the Wigner–Moyal type, which is commonly known in the phase-space formulation of quantum mechanics. In the geometrical-optics limit, this formulation features additional termsmore » missing in the traditional WKE that ensure exact conservation of the total enstrophy of the system, in addition to the total energy, which is the only conserved invariant in previous theories based on the WKE. We present numerical simulations to illustrate the importance of these additional terms. The proposed formulation can be considered as a phase-space representation of the second-order cumulant expansion, or CE2.« less

Zonal-flow dynamics from a phase-space perspective

DOE PAGES

Ruiz, D. E.; Parker, J. B.; Shi, E. L.; ...

2016-12-16

The wave kinetic equation (WKE) describing drift-wave (DW) turbulence is widely used in the studies of zonal flows (ZFs) emerging from DW turbulence. But, this formulation neglects the exchange of enstrophy between DWs and ZFs and also ignores effects beyond the geometrical-optics limit. Furthermore, we derive a modified theory that takes both of these effects into account, while still treating DW quanta (“driftons”) as particles in phase space. The drifton dynamics is described by an equation of the Wigner–Moyal type, which is commonly known in the phase-space formulation of quantum mechanics. In the geometrical-optics limit, this formulation features additional termsmore » missing in the traditional WKE that ensure exact conservation of the total enstrophy of the system, in addition to the total energy, which is the only conserved invariant in previous theories based on the WKE. We present numerical simulations to illustrate the importance of these additional terms. The proposed formulation can be considered as a phase-space representation of the second-order cumulant expansion, or CE2.« less

Variability simulations with a steady, linearized primitive equations model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinter, J. L., III; Nigam, S.

1985-01-01

Solutions of the steady, primitive equations on a sphere, linearized about a zonally symmetric basic state are computed for the purpose of simulating monthly mean variability in the troposphere. The basic states are observed, winter monthly mean, zonal means of zontal and meridional velocities, temperatures and surface pressures computed from the 15 year NMC time series. A least squares fit to a series of Legendre polynomials is used to compute the basic states between 20 H and the equator, and the hemispheres are assumed symmetric. The model is spectral in the zonal direction, and centered differences are employed in the meridional and vertical directions. Since the model is steady and linear, the solution is obtained by inversion of a block, pente-diagonal matrix. The model simulates the climatology of the GFDL nine level, spectral general circulation model quite closely, particularly in middle latitudes above the boundary layer. This experiment is an extension of that simulation to examine variability of the steady, linear solution.

Zonally asymmetric response of the Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth to the Southern Annular Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallée, J. B.; Speer, K. G.; Rintoul, S. R.

2010-04-01

Interactions between the atmosphere and ocean are mediated by the mixed layer at the ocean surface. The depth of this layer is determined by wind forcing and heating from the atmosphere. Variations in mixed-layer depth affect the rate of exchange between the atmosphere and deeper ocean, the capacity of the ocean to store heat and carbon and the availability of light and nutrients to support the growth of phytoplankton. However, the response of the Southern Ocean mixed layer to changes in the atmosphere is not well known. Here we analyse temperature and salinity data from Argo profiling floats to show that the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere, leads to large-scale anomalies in mixed-layer depth that are zonally asymmetric. From a simple heat budget of the mixed layer we conclude that meridional winds associated with departures of the SAM from zonal symmetry cause anomalies in heat flux that can, in turn, explain the observed changes of mixed-layer depth and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that changes in the SAM, including recent and projected trends attributed to human activity, drive variations in Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth, with consequences for air-sea exchange, ocean sequestration of heat and carbon, and biological productivity.

Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

Zonally Symmetric Oscillations of the Thermosphere at Planetary Wave Periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Zhang, Xiaoli; Maute, Astrid; Hagan, Maura E.

2018-05-01

New mechanisms for imposing planetary wave (PW) variability on the ionosphere-thermosphere system are discovered in numerical experiments conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model. First, it is demonstrated that a tidal spectrum modulated at PW periods (3-20 days) entering the ionosphere-thermosphere system near 100 km is responsible for producing ±40 m/s and ±10-15 K PW period oscillations between 110 and 150 km at low to middle latitudes. The dominant response is broadband and zonally symmetric (i.e., "S0") over a range of periods and is attributable to tidal dissipation; essentially, the ionosphere-thermosphere system "vacillates" in response to dissipation of the PW-modulated tidal spectrum. In addition, some specific westward propagating PWs such as the quasi-6-day wave are amplified by the presence of the tidal spectrum; the underlying mechanism is hypothesized to be a second-stage nonlinear interaction. The S0 total neutral mass density (ρ) response at 325 km consists of PW period fluctuations of order ±3-4%, roughly equivalent to the day-to-day variability associated with low-level geomagnetic activity. The variability in ρ over short periods (˜< 9 days) correlates with temperature changes, indicating a response of hydrostatic origin. Over longer periods ρ is also controlled by composition and mean molecular mass. While the upper-thermosphere impacts are modest, they do translate to more significant changes in the F region ionosphere.

Jupiter cloud morphology and zonal winds from ground-based observations during Juno's first year around Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hueso, R.; Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Gómez-Forrellad, J. M.; Rojas, J. F.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Sanz-Requena, J. F.; Peralta, J.; Ordonez-Etxeberria, I.; Chen-Chen, H.; Mendikoa, I.; Peach, D.; Go, C.; Wesley, A.; Miles, P.; Olivetti, T.

2017-09-01

We present an analysis of Jupiter's atmospheric activity over Juno's first year around the planet based on ground-based observations. We present variability of the zonal winds associated to large outbreaks of convective activity at different belts in the planet, a study of short-scale atmospheric waves at low latitudes and examine polar views of the planet that can be compared with JunoCam observations.

Evaluation of column-averaged methane in models and TCCON with a focus on the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostler, Andreas; Sussmann, Ralf; Patra, Prabir K.; Houweling, Sander; De Bruine, Marko; Stiller, Gabriele P.; Haenel, Florian J.; Plieninger, Johannes; Bousquet, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Saunois, Marielle; Walker, Kaley A.; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Griffith, David W. T.; Blumenstock, Thomas; Hase, Frank; Warneke, Thorsten; Wang, Zhiting; Kivi, Rigel; Robinson, John

2016-09-01

The distribution of methane (CH4) in the stratosphere can be a major driver of spatial variability in the dry-air column-averaged CH4 mixing ratio (XCH4), which is being measured increasingly for the assessment of CH4 surface emissions. Chemistry-transport models (CTMs) therefore need to simulate the tropospheric and stratospheric fractional columns of XCH4 accurately for estimating surface emissions from XCH4. Simulations from three CTMs are tested against XCH4 observations from the Total Carbon Column Network (TCCON). We analyze how the model-TCCON agreement in XCH4 depends on the model representation of stratospheric CH4 distributions. Model equivalents of TCCON XCH4 are computed with stratospheric CH4 fields from both the model simulations and from satellite-based CH4 distributions from MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and MIPAS CH4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) observations. Using MIPAS-based stratospheric CH4 fields in place of model simulations improves the model-TCCON XCH4 agreement for all models. For the Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model (ACTM) the average XCH4 bias is significantly reduced from 38.1 to 13.7 ppb, whereas small improvements are found for the models TM5 (Transport Model, version 5; from 8.7 to 4.3 ppb) and LMDz (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with zooming capability; from 6.8 to 4.3 ppb). Replacing model simulations with MIPAS stratospheric CH4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS reduces the average XCH4 bias for ACTM (3.3 ppb), but increases the average XCH4 bias for TM5 (10.8 ppb) and LMDz (20.0 ppb). These findings imply that model errors in simulating stratospheric CH4 contribute to model biases. Current satellite instruments cannot definitively measure stratospheric CH4 to sufficient accuracy to eliminate these biases. Applying transport diagnostics to the models indicates that model-to-model differences in the simulation of

Model selection and model averaging in phylogenetics: advantages of akaike information criterion and bayesian approaches over likelihood ratio tests.

PubMed

Posada, David; Buckley, Thomas R

2004-10-01

Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the selection of substitution models in phylogenetics from a theoretical, philosophical and practical point of view, and summarize this comparison in table format. We argue that the most commonly implemented model selection approach, the hierarchical likelihood ratio test, is not the optimal strategy for model selection in phylogenetics, and that approaches like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian methods offer important advantages. In particular, the latter two methods are able to simultaneously compare multiple nested or nonnested models, assess model selection uncertainty, and allow for the estimation of phylogenies and model parameters using all available models (model-averaged inference or multimodel inference). We also describe how the relative importance of the different parameters included in substitution models can be depicted. To illustrate some of these points, we have applied AIC-based model averaging to 37 mitochondrial DNA sequences from the subgenus Ohomopterus(genus Carabus) ground beetles described by Sota and Vogler (2001).

CO2 Annual and Semiannual Cycles from Satellite Retrievals and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Crisp, D.; Olsen, E. T.; Kulawik, S. S.; Miller, C. E.; Pagano, T. S.; Yung, Y. L.

2014-12-01

We have compared satellite CO2 retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with in-situ measurements from the Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) Surface CO2 and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and utilized zonal means to characterize variability and distribution of CO2. In general, zonally averaged CO2 from the three satellite data sets are consistent with the surface and TCCON XCO2 data. Retrievals of CO2 from the three satellites show more (less) CO2 in the northern hemisphere than that in the southern hemisphere in the northern hemispheric winter (summer) season. The difference between the three satellite CO2 retrievals might be related to the different averaging kernels in the satellites CO2 retrievals. A multiple regression method was used to calculate the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes from different satellite CO2 retrievals. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are largest at the surface, as seen in the NOAA-ESRL CO2 data sets. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes in the GOSAT XCO2, AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2, and TES mid-tropospheric CO2 are smaller compared with those from the surface CO2. Similar regression analysis was applied to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers-2 (MOZART-2) and CarbonTracker model CO2. The convolved model CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are similar to those from the satellite CO2 retrievals, although the model tends to under-estimate the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from the comparison with GOSAT and TES CO2 and underestimate the CO2 semi-annual cycle amplitudes in the high latitudes from the comparison with AIRS CO2. The difference between model and satellite CO2 can be used to identify possible deficiency in the model and improve the model in the future.

General analytic results on averaging Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, Roberto A.

2010-12-01

An effective acceleration, which mimics the effect of dark energy, may arise in the context of Buchert's scalar averaging formalism. We examine the conditions for such an acceleration to occur in the asymptotic radial range in generic spherically symmetric Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi (LTB) dust models. By looking at the behavior of covariant scalars along space slices orthogonal to the 4-velocity, we show that this effective acceleration occurs in a class of models with negative spatial curvature that are asymptotically convergent to sections of Minkowski spacetime. As a consequence, the boundary conditions that favor LTB models with an effective acceleration are not a void inhomogeneity embedded in a homogeneous FLRW background (Swiss cheese models), but a local void or clump embedded in a large cosmic void region represented by asymptotically Minkowski conditions.

Model predictions of latitude-dependent ozone depletion due to aerospace vehicle operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borucki, W. J.; Whitten, R. C.; Watson, V. R.; Riegel, C. A.; Maples, A. L.; Capone, L. A.

1976-01-01

Results are presented from a two-dimensional model of the stratosphere that simulates the seasonal movement of ozone by both wind and eddy transport, and contains all the chemistry known to be important. The calculated reductions in ozone due to NO2 injection from a fleet of supersonic transports are compared with the zonally averaged results of a three-dimensional model for a similar episode of injection. The agreement is good in the northern hemisphere, but is not as good in the southern hemisphere. Both sets of calculations show a strong corridor effect in that the predicted ozone depletions are largest to the north of the flight corridor for aircraft operating in the northern hemisphere.

Cryptic speciation reversal in the Etheostoma zonale (Teleostei: Percidae) species group, with an examination of the effect of recombination and introgression on species tree inference.

PubMed

Halas, Dominik; Simons, Andrew M

2014-01-01

Mitochondrial and nuclear introgression among closely related taxa can greatly complicate the process of determining their phylogenetic relationships. In the Central Highlands of North America, many fish taxa have undergone introgression; in this study, we demonstrate the existence of an unusual introgression event in the Etheostoma zonale species group. We used one mitochondrial and seven nuclear loci to determine the relationships of the taxa within the E. zonale group, and their degree of differentiation. We found evidence of multiple divergent populations within each species; much of the divergence within species has taken place during the Pleistocene. We also found evidence of a previously unknown cryptic species in the Upper Tennessee River which diverged from the remainder of the group during the Pliocene, and has undergone mitochondrial and nuclear introgression with E. zonale, in an apparent process of speciation reversal. We examined the effects that using varying types of recombination tests to eliminate the signal of recombination from nuclear loci would have on the phylogenetic placement of this introgressed lineage in our species tree analyses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decomposition method for zonal resource allocation problems in telecommunication networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konnov, I. V.; Kashuba, A. Yu

2016-11-01

We consider problems of optimal resource allocation in telecommunication networks. We first give an optimization formulation for the case where the network manager aims to distribute some homogeneous resource (bandwidth) among users of one region with quadratic charge and fee functions and present simple and efficient solution methods. Next, we consider a more general problem for a provider of a wireless communication network divided into zones (clusters) with common capacity constraints. We obtain a convex quadratic optimization problem involving capacity and balance constraints. By using the dual Lagrangian method with respect to the capacity constraint, we suggest to reduce the initial problem to a single-dimensional optimization problem, but calculation of the cost function value leads to independent solution of zonal problems, which coincide with the above single region problem. Some results of computational experiments confirm the applicability of the new methods.

Evaluation of column-averaged methane in models and TCCON with a focus on the stratosphere

DOE PAGES

Ostler, Andreas; Sussmann, Ralf; Patra, Prabir K.; ...

2016-09-28

The distribution of methane (CH 4) in the stratosphere can be a major driver of spatial variability in the dry-air column-averaged CH 4 mixing ratio (XCH 4), which is being measured increasingly for the assessment of CH 4 surface emissions. Chemistry-transport models (CTMs) therefore need to simulate the tropospheric and stratospheric fractional columns of XCH 4 accurately for estimating surface emissions from XCH 4. Simulations from three CTMs are tested against XCH 4 observations from the Total Carbon Column Network (TCCON). We analyze how the model–TCCON agreement in XCH 4 depends on the model representation of stratospheric CH 4 distributions.more » Model equivalents of TCCON XCH 4 are computed with stratospheric CH 4 fields from both the model simulations and from satellite-based CH 4 distributions from MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and MIPAS CH 4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) observations. Using MIPAS-based stratospheric CH 4 fields in place of model simulations improves the model–TCCON XCH 4 agreement for all models. For the Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model (ACTM) the average XCH 4 bias is significantly reduced from 38.1 to 13.7 ppb, whereas small improvements are found for the models TM5 (Transport Model, version 5; from 8.7 to 4.3 ppb) and LMDz (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with zooming capability; from 6.8 to 4.3 ppb). Replacing model simulations with MIPAS stratospheric CH 4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS reduces the average XCH 4 bias for ACTM (3.3 ppb), but increases the average XCH 4 bias for TM5 (10.8 ppb) and LMDz (20.0 ppb). These findings imply that model errors in simulating stratospheric CH 4 contribute to model biases. Current satellite instruments cannot definitively measure stratospheric CH 4 to sufficient accuracy to eliminate these biases. Applying transport diagnostics to the models indicates that model-to-model

Evaluation of column-averaged methane in models and TCCON with a focus on the stratosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ostler, Andreas; Sussmann, Ralf; Patra, Prabir K.

The distribution of methane (CH 4) in the stratosphere can be a major driver of spatial variability in the dry-air column-averaged CH 4 mixing ratio (XCH 4), which is being measured increasingly for the assessment of CH 4 surface emissions. Chemistry-transport models (CTMs) therefore need to simulate the tropospheric and stratospheric fractional columns of XCH 4 accurately for estimating surface emissions from XCH 4. Simulations from three CTMs are tested against XCH 4 observations from the Total Carbon Column Network (TCCON). We analyze how the model–TCCON agreement in XCH 4 depends on the model representation of stratospheric CH 4 distributions.more » Model equivalents of TCCON XCH 4 are computed with stratospheric CH 4 fields from both the model simulations and from satellite-based CH 4 distributions from MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and MIPAS CH 4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) observations. Using MIPAS-based stratospheric CH 4 fields in place of model simulations improves the model–TCCON XCH 4 agreement for all models. For the Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model (ACTM) the average XCH 4 bias is significantly reduced from 38.1 to 13.7 ppb, whereas small improvements are found for the models TM5 (Transport Model, version 5; from 8.7 to 4.3 ppb) and LMDz (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with zooming capability; from 6.8 to 4.3 ppb). Replacing model simulations with MIPAS stratospheric CH 4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS reduces the average XCH 4 bias for ACTM (3.3 ppb), but increases the average XCH 4 bias for TM5 (10.8 ppb) and LMDz (20.0 ppb). These findings imply that model errors in simulating stratospheric CH 4 contribute to model biases. Current satellite instruments cannot definitively measure stratospheric CH 4 to sufficient accuracy to eliminate these biases. Applying transport diagnostics to the models indicates that model-to-model

PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (PARMA) MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO WATER RESOURCES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autogressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.

Model evaluation of the radiative and temperature effects of the ozone content changes in the global atmosphere of 1980's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karol, Igor L.; Frolkis, Victor A.

1994-01-01

Radiative and temperature effects of the observed ozone and greenhouse gas atmospheric content changes in 1980 - 1990 are evaluated using the two-dimensional energy balance radiative-convective model of the zonally and annually averaged troposphere and stratosphere. Calculated radiative flux changes for standard conditions quantitatively agree with their estimates in WMO/UNEP 1991 review. Model estimates indicate rather small influence of ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere on the greenhouse tropospheric warming rate, being more significant in the non-tropical Southern Hemisphere. The calculated cooling of the lower stratosphere is close to the observed temperature trends there in the last decade.

40 CFR 91.1304 - Averaging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Averaging. (a) A manufacturer may use averaging across engine families to demonstrate a zero or positive... credits obtained through trading. (b) Beginning in model year 2004, credits used to demonstrate a zero or...

40 CFR 91.1304 - Averaging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Averaging. (a) A manufacturer may use averaging across engine families to demonstrate a zero or positive... credits obtained through trading. (b) Beginning in model year 2004, credits used to demonstrate a zero or...

40 CFR 91.1304 - Averaging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Averaging. (a) A manufacturer may use averaging across engine families to demonstrate a zero or positive... credits obtained through trading. (b) Beginning in model year 2004, credits used to demonstrate a zero or...

40 CFR 91.1304 - Averaging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Averaging. (a) A manufacturer may use averaging across engine families to demonstrate a zero or positive... credits obtained through trading. (b) Beginning in model year 2004, credits used to demonstrate a zero or...

40 CFR 91.1304 - Averaging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Averaging. (a) A manufacturer may use averaging across engine families to demonstrate a zero or positive... credits obtained through trading. (b) Beginning in model year 2004, credits used to demonstrate a zero or...

Hubble Space Telescope observations of the 1990 equatorial disturbance on Saturn - Zonal winds and central meridian albedos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnet, C. D.; Westphal, J. A.; Beebe, R. F.; Huber, L. F.

1992-12-01

The present comparison of two sets of HST data from August and November 1990 with Voyager 1 and 2 data acquired in 1980 and 1981 gives attention to Saturn's equatorial-region disturbance of September 1990. Longitudinal variations in the equatorial zonal winds are interpreted as evidence for interaction between the storm nucleus that was generated during the disturbance and the local wind field.

Monthly Maps of Sea Surface Height in the North Atlantic and Zonal Indices for the Gulf Stream Using TOPEX/Poseidon Altimeter Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Sandipa; Kelly, Kathryn A.

1997-01-01

Monthly Maps of sea surface height are constructed for the North Atlantic Ocean using TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data. Mean sea surface height is reconstructed using a weighted combination of historical, hydrographic data and a synthetic mean obtained by fitting a Gaussian model of the Gulf Stream jet to altimeter data. The resultant mean shows increased resolution over the hydrographic mean, and incorporates recirculation information that is absent in the synthetic mean. Monthly maps, obtained by adding the mean field to altimeter sea surface height residuals, are used to derive a set of zonal indices that describe the annual cycle of meandering as well as position and strength of the Gulf Stream.

Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

ACUTE ZONAL OCCULT OUTER RETINOPATHY: Structural and Functional Analysis Across the Transition Zone Between Healthy and Diseased Retina.

PubMed

Duncker, Tobias; Lee, Winston; Jiang, Fan; Ramachandran, Rithambara; Hood, Donald C; Tsang, Stephen H; Sparrow, Janet R; Greenstein, Vivienne C

2018-01-01

To assess structure and function across the transition zone (TZ) between relatively healthy and diseased retina in acute zonal occult outer retinopathy. Six patients (6 eyes; age 22-71 years) with acute zonal occult outer retinopathy were studied. Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography, fundus autofluorescence, near-infrared reflectance, color fundus photography, and fundus perimetry were performed and images were registered to each other. The retinal layers of the spectral-domain optical coherence tomography scans were segmented and the thicknesses of two outer retinal layers, that is, the total receptor and outer segment plus layers, and the retinal nerve fiber layer were measured. All eyes showed a TZ on multimodal imaging. On spectral-domain optical coherence tomography, the TZ was in the nasal retina at varying distances from the fovea. For all eyes, it was associated with loss of the ellipsoid zone band, significant thinning of the two outer retinal layers, and in three eyes with thickening of the retinal nerve fiber layer. On fundus autofluorescence, all eyes had a clearly demarcated peripapillary area of abnormal fundus autofluorescence delimited by a border of high autofluorescence; the latter was associated with loss of the ellipsoid zone band and with a change from relatively normal to markedly decreased or nonrecordable visual sensitivity on fundus perimetry. The results of multimodal imaging clarified the TZ in acute zonal occult outer retinopathy. The TZ was outlined by a distinct high autofluorescence border that correlated with loss of the ellipsoid zone band on spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. However, in fundus areas that seemed healthy on fundus autofluorescence, thinning of the outer retinal layers and thickening of the retinal nerve fiber layer were observed near the TZ. The TZ was also characterized by a decrease in visual sensitivity.

Time series forecasting using ERNN and QR based on Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pwasong, Augustine; Sathasivam, Saratha

2017-08-01

The Bayesian model averaging technique is a multi-model combination technique. The technique was employed to amalgamate the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN) technique with the quadratic regression (QR) technique. The amalgamation produced a hybrid technique known as the hybrid ERNN-QR technique. The potentials of forecasting with the hybrid technique are compared with the forecasting capabilities of individual techniques of ERNN and QR. The outcome revealed that the hybrid technique is superior to the individual techniques in the mean square error sense.

A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

2017-06-01

Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

New model of the average neutron and proton pairing gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madland, David G.; Nix, J. Rayford

1988-01-01

By use of the BCS approximation applied to a distribution of dense, equally spaced levels, we derive new expressions for the average neutron pairing gap ¯gD n and average proton pairing gap ¯gD p. These expressions, which contain exponential terms, take into account the dependencies of ¯gD n and ¯gD p upon both the relative neutron excess and shape of the nucleus. The three constants that appear are determined by a least-squares adjustment to experimental pairing gaps obtained by use of fourth-order differences of measured masses. For this purpose we use the 1986 Audi-Wapstra mid-stream mass evaluation and take into account experimental uncertainties. Our new model explains not only the dependencies of ¯gD n and ¯gD p upon relative neutron excess and nuclear shape, but also the experimental result that for medium and heavy nuclei ¯gD n is generally smaller than ¯gD p. We also introduce a new expression for the average residual neutron-proton interaction energy ¯gd that appears in the masses of odd-odd nuclei, and determine the constant that appears by an analogous least-squares adjustment to experimental mass differences. Our new expressions for ¯gD n, ¯gD p and ¯gd should permit extrapolation of these quantities to heavier nuclei and to nuclei farther removed from the valley of β stability than do previous parameterizations.

Why the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind changes trend in the mid -1990s?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krizan, P.

2016-12-01

This poster tries to explain the reasons for trend change of the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind in the mid-1990s. In the areas of negative (positive) wind speed trend before 1995 the positive (negative) trend is observed after this point Similar change is observed also for total ozone where we observe negative trend before 1995 and positive one after. We use MERRA reanalysis data especially monthly mean of geopotential from January to March. We suppose the position and strength of polar vortex and Aleutian high plays here very important role..

Scattering in infrared radiative transfer: A comparison between the spectrally averaging model JURASSIC and the line-by-line model KOPRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griessbach, Sabine; Hoffmann, Lars; Höpfner, Michael; Riese, Martin; Spang, Reinhold

2013-09-01

The viability of a spectrally averaging model to perform radiative transfer calculations in the infrared including scattering by atmospheric particles is examined for the application of infrared limb remote sensing measurements. Here we focus on the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) aboard the European Space Agency's Envisat. Various spectra for clear air and cloudy conditions were simulated with a spectrally averaging radiative transfer model and a line-by-line radiative transfer model for three atmospheric window regions (825-830, 946-951, 1224-1228 cm-1) and compared to each other. The results are rated in terms of the MIPAS noise equivalent spectral radiance (NESR). The clear air simulations generally agree within one NESR. The cloud simulations neglecting the scattering source term agree within two NESR. The differences between the cloud simulations including the scattering source term are generally below three and always below four NESR. We conclude that the spectrally averaging approach is well suited for fast and accurate infrared radiative transfer simulations including scattering by clouds. We found that the main source for the differences between the cloud simulations of both models is the cloud edge sampling. Furthermore we reasoned that this model comparison for clouds is also valid for atmospheric aerosol in general.

Global ozone observations from the UARS MLS: An overview of zonal-mean results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Froidevaux, Lucien; Waters, Joe W.; Read, William G.; Elson, Lee S.; Flower, Dennis A.; Jarnot, Robert F.

1994-01-01

Global ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are presented, in both vertically resolved and column abundance formats. The authors review the zonal-mean ozone variations measured over the two and a half years since launch in September 1991. Well-known features such as the annual and semiannual variations are ubiquitous. In the equatorial regions, longer-term changes are believed to be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), with a strong semiannual signal above 20 hPa. Ozone values near 50 hPa exhibit an equatorial low from October 1991 to June 1992, after which the low ozone pattern splits into two subtropical lows (possibly in connection with residual circulation changes tied to the QBO) and returns to an equatorial low in September 1993. The ozone hole development at high southern latitudes is apparent in MLS column data integrated down to 100 hPa, the MLS data reinforce current knowledge of this lower-stratospheric phenomenon by providing a height-dependent view of the variations. The region from 30 deg S to 30 deg N (an area equal to half the global area) shows very little change in the ozone column from year to year and within each year. The most striking ozone changes have occurred at northern midlatitudes, with the October 1992 to July 1993 column values significantly lower than during the prior year. The zonal-mean changes manifest themselves as a slower rate of increase during the 1992/93 winter, and there is some evidence for a lower fall minimum. A recovery occurs during late summer of 1993; early 1994 values are significantly larger than during the two previous winters. The timing and latitudinal extent of the northern midlatitude decreases appear to rule out observed ClO enhancements in the Arctic vortex, with related chemical processing and ozone dilution effects, as a unique cause. Local depletion from ClO-related chemical mechanisms alone is also not sufficient, based

A geometrical optics approach for modeling aperture averaging in free space optical communication applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuksel, Heba; Davis, Christopher C.

2006-09-01

Intensity fluctuations at the receiver in free space optical (FSO) communication links lead to a received power variance that depends on the size of the receiver aperture. Increasing the size of the receiver aperture reduces the power variance. This effect of the receiver size on power variance is called aperture averaging. If there were no aperture size limitation at the receiver, then there would be no turbulence-induced scintillation. In practice, there is always a tradeoff between aperture size, transceiver weight, and potential transceiver agility for pointing, acquisition and tracking (PAT) of FSO communication links. We have developed a geometrical simulation model to predict the aperture averaging factor. This model is used to simulate the aperture averaging effect at given range by using a large number of rays, Gaussian as well as uniformly distributed, propagating through simulated turbulence into a circular receiver of varying aperture size. Turbulence is simulated by filling the propagation path with spherical bubbles of varying sizes and refractive index discontinuities statistically distributed according to various models. For each statistical representation of the atmosphere, the three-dimensional trajectory of each ray is analyzed using geometrical optics. These Monte Carlo techniques have proved capable of assessing the aperture averaging effect, in particular, the quantitative expected reduction in intensity fluctuations with increasing aperture diameter. In addition, beam wander results have demonstrated the range-cubed dependence of mean-squared beam wander. An effective turbulence parameter can also be determined by correlating beam wander behavior with the path length.

Model Averaging for Predicting the Exposure to Aflatoxin B1 Using DNA Methylation in White Blood Cells of Infants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahardiantoro, S.; Sartono, B.; Kurnia, A.

2017-03-01

In recent years, DNA methylation has been the special issue to reveal the pattern of a lot of human diseases. Huge amount of data would be the inescapable phenomenon in this case. In addition, some researchers interesting to take some predictions based on these huge data, especially using regression analysis. The classical approach would be failed to take the task. Model averaging by Ando and Li [1] could be an alternative approach to face this problem. This research applied the model averaging to get the best prediction in high dimension of data. In the practice, the case study by Vargas et al [3], data of exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and DNA methylation in white blood cells of infants in The Gambia, take the implementation of model averaging. The best ensemble model selected based on the minimum of MAPE, MAE, and MSE of predictions. The result is ensemble model by model averaging with number of predictors in model candidate is 15.

Lagrangian-averaged model for magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and the absence of bottlenecks.

PubMed

Pietarila Graham, Jonathan; Mininni, Pablo D; Pouquet, Annick

2009-07-01

We demonstrate that, for the case of quasiequipartition between the velocity and the magnetic field, the Lagrangian-averaged magnetohydrodynamics (LAMHD) alpha model reproduces well both the large-scale and the small-scale properties of turbulent flows; in particular, it displays no increased (superfilter) bottleneck effect with its ensuing enhanced energy spectrum at the onset of the subfilter scales. This is in contrast to the case of the neutral fluid in which the Lagrangian-averaged Navier-Stokes alpha model is somewhat limited in its applications because of the formation of spatial regions with no internal degrees of freedom and subsequent contamination of superfilter-scale spectral properties. We argue that, as the Lorentz force breaks the conservation of circulation and enables spectrally nonlocal energy transfer (associated with Alfvén waves), it is responsible for the absence of a viscous bottleneck in magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), as compared to the fluid case. As LAMHD preserves Alfvén waves and the circulation properties of MHD, there is also no (superfilter) bottleneck found in LAMHD, making this method capable of large reductions in required numerical degrees of freedom; specifically, we find a reduction factor of approximately 200 when compared to a direct numerical simulation on a large grid of 1536;{3} points at the same Reynolds number.

An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

An ocean dynamical thermostat—dominant in observations, absent in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2016-12-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is coupled to the Walker circulation, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease in the zonal SST gradient is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a seasonal weakening of the Walker circulation and thus can reconcile disparate observations of changes to the atmosphere and ocean in the equatorial Pacific. CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of this response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing potentially because of biases in the sensitivity of the EUC to changes in zonal wind stress, like the weakening Walker circulation. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific.

Properties of bright solitons in averaged and unaveraged models for SDG fibres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ajit; Kumar, Atul

1996-04-01

Using the slowly varying envelope approximation and averaging over the fibre cross-section the evolution equation for optical pulses in semiconductor-doped glass (SDG) fibres is derived from the nonlinear wave equation. Bright soliton solutions of this equation are obtained numerically and their properties are studied and compared with those of the bright solitons in the unaveraged model.

Average is Over

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo

2018-02-01

The popular perception of statistical distributions is depicted by the iconic bell curve which comprises of a massive bulk of 'middle-class' values, and two thin tails - one of small left-wing values, and one of large right-wing values. The shape of the bell curve is unimodal, and its peak represents both the mode and the mean. Thomas Friedman, the famous New York Times columnist, recently asserted that we have entered a human era in which "Average is Over" . In this paper we present mathematical models for the phenomenon that Friedman highlighted. While the models are derived via different modeling approaches, they share a common foundation. Inherent tipping points cause the models to phase-shift from a 'normal' bell-shape statistical behavior to an 'anomalous' statistical behavior: the unimodal shape changes to an unbounded monotone shape, the mode vanishes, and the mean diverges. Hence: (i) there is an explosion of small values; (ii) large values become super-large; (iii) 'middle-class' values are wiped out, leaving an infinite rift between the small and the super large values; and (iv) "Average is Over" indeed.

Phase averaging method for the modeling of the multiprobe and cutaneous cryosurgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Shilnikov, K.; Kudryashov, N. A.; Y Gaiur, I.

2017-12-01

In this paper we consider the problem of planning and optimization of the cutaneous and multiprobe cryosurgery operations. An explicit scheme based on the finite volume approximation of phase averaged Pennes bioheat transfer model is applied. The flux relaxation method is used for the stability improvement of scheme. Skin tissue is considered as strongly inhomogeneous media. Computerized planning tool is tested on model cryotip-based and cutaneous cryosurgery problems. For the case of cutaneous cryosurgery the method of an additional freezing element mounting is studied as an approach to optimize the cellular necrosis front propagation.

Some studies of zonal and meridional wind characteristics at low latitude Indian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagpal, O. P.; Kumar, S.

1985-12-01

At the beginning of the Indian Middle Atmosphere Programme (IMAP), it was decided that the preparation of consolidation reports of already available parameters for the middle atmosphere would be useful. Atmospheric wind data obtained by rockets and balloons constituted one such parameter which had to be consolidated. The present paper summaries the results of this consolidation study. Both zonal and meridional components of winds at four low latitude Indian stations namely Thumba, Shar, Hyderabad, and Balasore, have been analyzed to yield reference wind profiles for each month. The montly mean values have been used to bring out the amplitudes and phases of the annual, semiannual and quasi-biennial oscillations.

Some studies of zonal and meridional wind characteristics at low latitude Indian stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagpal, O. P.; Kumar, S.

1985-01-01

At the beginning of the Indian Middle Atmosphere Programme (IMAP), it was decided that the preparation of consolidation reports of already available parameters for the middle atmosphere would be useful. Atmospheric wind data obtained by rockets and balloons constituted one such parameter which had to be consolidated. The present paper summaries the results of this consolidation study. Both zonal and meridional components of winds at four low latitude Indian stations namely Thumba, Shar, Hyderabad, and Balasore, have been analyzed to yield reference wind profiles for each month. The montly mean values have been used to bring out the amplitudes and phases of the annual, semiannual and quasi-biennial oscillations.

Empirical wind model for the middle and lower atmosphere. Part 2: Local time variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hedin, A. E.; Fleming, E. L.; Manson, A. H.; Schmidlin, F. J.; Avery, S. K.; Clark, R. R.; Franke, S. J.; Fraser, G. J.; Tsuda, T.; Vial, F.

1993-01-01

The HWM90 thermospheric wind model was revised in the lower thermosphere and extended into the mesosphere and lower atmosphere to provide a single analytic model for calculating zonal and meridional wind profiles representative of the climatological average for various geophysical conditions. Local time variations in the mesosphere are derived from rocket soundings, incoherent scatter radar, MF radar, and meteor radar. Low-order spherical harmonics and Fourier series are used to describe these variations as a function of latitude and day of year with cubic spline interpolation in altitude. The model represents a smoothed compromise between the original data sources. Although agreement between various data sources is generally good, some systematic differences are noted. Overall root mean square differences between measured and model tidal components are on the order of 5 to 10 m/s.

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

Scale Dependence of Statistics of Spatially Averaged Rain Rate Seen in TOGA COARE Comparison with Predictions from a Stochastic Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, T. L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they in general depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. As a part of an earlier effort to determine the sampling error of satellite rain averages, a space-time model of rainfall statistics was developed to describe the statistics of gridded rain observed in GATE. The model allows one to compute the second moment statistics of space- and time-averaged rain rate which can be fitted to satellite or rain gauge data to determine the four model parameters appearing in the precipitation spectrum - an overall strength parameter, a characteristic length separating the long and short wavelength regimes and a characteristic relaxation time for decay of the autocorrelation of the instantaneous local rain rate and a certain 'fractal' power law exponent. For area-averaged instantaneous rain rate, this exponent governs the power law dependence of these statistics on the averaging length scale $L$ predicted by the model in the limit of small $L$. In particular, the variance of rain rate averaged over an $L \\times L$ area exhibits a power law singularity as $L \\rightarrow 0$. In the present work the model is used to investigate how the statistics of area-averaged rain rate over the tropical Western Pacific measured with ship borne radar during TOGA COARE (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment) and gridded on a 2 km grid depends on the size of the spatial averaging scale. Good agreement is found between the data and predictions from the model over a wide range of averaging length scales.

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtis, Gary P.; Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming

2015-01-01

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. This study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. These reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Limitations of applying MLBMA to the

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.

2015-08-01

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. Our study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict themore » reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. Moreover, these reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Finally