Sero-epidemiology and hemato-biochemical study of bovine leptospirosis in flood affected zone of Pakistan.

PubMed

Ijaz, Muhammad; Abbas, Syed Nazar; Farooqi, Shahid Hussain; Aqib, Amjad Islam; Anwar, Ghulam Ali; Rehman, Abdul; Ali, Muhammad Muddassir; Mehmood, Khalid; Khan, Amjad

2018-01-01

The bovine leptospirosis is an economically important zoonotic disease of flood affected areas worldwide, but scarce information is available about its epidemiology in Pakistan. This is a first study on sero-epidemiology of bovine leptospirosis in Pakistan. The objectives of this study were to investigate the sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of bovine leptospirosis in flood affected zone of Punjab, Pakistan. A total of 385 serum samples were randomly collected from four tehsils of district Muzaffargarh, Pakistan. The serum samples were subjected to indirect ELISA for the detection of anti-leptospira antibodies. The overall sero-prevalence of leptospirosis was 30.39%. The prevalence was significantly higher (p<0.001) in cattle (56.25%) than buffaloes (4.66%). The key risk factors identified based on multivariable logistic regression were; confined system of rearing, flooded area, and lesser to graduate level of education as risk factors for leptospirosis. The values of hematological parameters varied significantly (p<0.05) for Hb, TEC and PCV while there was no significant (p>0.05) difference among TLC values among sero-positive and sero-negative animals. The serum biochemical profile revealed significant differences (p<0.05) in values of ALT, AST and creatinine among the sero-positive and negative animals. Hence, it can be concluded that leptospirosis is an emerging and neglected disease in flood affected zone of Pakistan, and the disease needs to be explored comprehensively in other parts of the country to sort out solid strategies for its control and eradication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of intense rains and flooding on mercury riverine input to the coastal zone.

PubMed

Saniewska, Dominika; Bełdowska, Magdalena; Bełdowski, Jacek; Saniewski, Michał; Gębka, Karolina; Szubska, Marta; Wochna, Agnieszka

2018-02-01

The aim of the present research was to determine the impact of intense rains and flooding on mercury riverine input to the coastal zone. This study focused on four small rivers (Reda, Zagórska Struga, Płutnica, Gizdepka), typical of the Southern Baltic region, with no significant mercury sources. Samples were collected for 16months during average flow conditions and during selected meteorological events: floods, downpours, thaws and droughts. Results showed decreased retention of mercury during intense rainfalls, thus demonstrating mercury elution from the catchment. Floods and melting snow also have a tremendous impact on the outflow of mercury from the catchment. Development of urban infrastructure and farmlands increases the outflow of mercury from the catchment too, making such areas a significant source of mercury in the river. On the other hand, areas with natural character, predominated by forests, stimulate retention of mercury that reaches them through dry and wet atmospheric deposition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of flood inundation using a well-balanced kinetic scheme for the shallow water equations with bulk recharge and discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ersoy, Mehmet; Lakkis, Omar; Townsend, Philip

2016-04-01

The flow of water in rivers and oceans can, under general assumptions, be efficiently modelled using Saint-Venant's shallow water system of equations (SWE). SWE is a hyperbolic system of conservation laws (HSCL) which can be derived from a starting point of incompressible Navier-Stokes. A common difficulty in the numerical simulation of HSCLs is the conservation of physical entropy. Work by Audusse, Bristeau, Perthame (2000) and Perthame, Simeoni (2001), proposed numerical SWE solvers known as kinetic schemes (KSs), which can be shown to have desirable entropy-consistent properties, and are thus called well-balanced schemes. A KS is derived from kinetic equations that can be integrated into the SWE. In flood risk assessment models the SWE must be coupled with other equations describing interacting meteorological and hydrogeological phenomena such as rain and groundwater flows. The SWE must therefore be appropriately modified to accommodate source and sink terms, so kinetic schemes are no longer valid. While modifications of SWE in this direction have been recently proposed, e.g., Delestre (2010), we depart from the extant literature by proposing a novel model that is "entropy-consistent" and naturally extends the SWE by respecting its kinetic formulation connections. This allows us to derive a system of partial differential equations modelling flow of a one-dimensional river with both a precipitation term and a groundwater flow model to account for potential infiltration and recharge. We exhibit numerical simulations of the corresponding kinetic schemes. These simulations can be applied to both real world flood prediction and the tackling of wider issues on how climate and societal change are affecting flood risk.

Flood and Fire Monitoring and Forecasting Within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Los, Victor

2001-03-01

Taking into consideration that radioactivity from the contaminating elements of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) amounts to a huge number, one of the most urgent tasks, at present, is the resolution of problems related to secondary radioactive contamination caused by floods and fires. These factors may lead to critical consequences. For instance, if radioactive contaminants migrate into the water system, namely into the Dnipro River, a threat arises to more than 20 million inhabitants of Ukraine. Additionally, fires in the CEZ potentially could cause contaminants to be dispersed into the air and to migrate in the atmosphere for long distances. The elements of information support system for administrative decision-making to respond to the appearances and consequences of forest fires and floods in contaminated areas of the CEZ have been developed. The system proposes: using Earth Remote Sensing (R/S) data for timely detection of forest fires; integration by Geographic Information System (GIS) of mathematical models for radionuclide migration by air in order to forecast radiological consequences of forest fires; forecasting and assessing flood consequences by means of spatial analysis of GIS and R/S; and development of a system for dissemination of information. This project was performed within the framework of USAID Cooperative Agreement #121-A-00-98-00615-00, dedicated to the establishment of the Ukrainian Land and Resource Management Center.

Modeling field-scale cosolvent flooding for DNAPL source zone remediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Hailian; Falta, Ronald W.

2008-02-01

A three-dimensional, compositional, multiphase flow simulator was used to model a field-scale test of DNAPL removal by cosolvent flooding. The DNAPL at this site was tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and the flooding solution was an ethanol/water mixture, with up to 95% ethanol. The numerical model, UTCHEM accounts for the equilibrium phase behavior and multiphase flow of a ternary ethanol-PCE-water system. Simulations of enhanced cosolvent flooding using a kinetic interphase mass transfer approach show that when a very high concentration of alcohol is injected, the DNAPL/water/alcohol mixture forms a single phase and local mass transfer limitations become irrelevant. The field simulations were carried out in three steps. At the first level, a simple uncalibrated layered model is developed. This model is capable of roughly reproducing the production well concentrations of alcohol, but not of PCE. A more refined (but uncalibrated) permeability model is able to accurately simulate the breakthrough concentrations of injected alcohol from the production wells, but is unable to accurately predict the PCE removal. The final model uses a calibration of the initial PCE distribution to get good matches with the PCE effluent curves from the extraction wells. It is evident that the effectiveness of DNAPL source zone remediation is mainly affected by characteristics of the spatial heterogeneity of porous media and the variable (and unknown) DNAPL distribution. The inherent uncertainty in the DNAPL distribution at real field sites means that some form of calibration of the initial contaminant distribution will almost always be required to match contaminant effluent breakthrough curves.

Modeling field-scale cosolvent flooding for DNAPL source zone remediation.

PubMed

Liang, Hailian; Falta, Ronald W

2008-02-19

A three-dimensional, compositional, multiphase flow simulator was used to model a field-scale test of DNAPL removal by cosolvent flooding. The DNAPL at this site was tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and the flooding solution was an ethanol/water mixture, with up to 95% ethanol. The numerical model, UTCHEM accounts for the equilibrium phase behavior and multiphase flow of a ternary ethanol-PCE-water system. Simulations of enhanced cosolvent flooding using a kinetic interphase mass transfer approach show that when a very high concentration of alcohol is injected, the DNAPL/water/alcohol mixture forms a single phase and local mass transfer limitations become irrelevant. The field simulations were carried out in three steps. At the first level, a simple uncalibrated layered model is developed. This model is capable of roughly reproducing the production well concentrations of alcohol, but not of PCE. A more refined (but uncalibrated) permeability model is able to accurately simulate the breakthrough concentrations of injected alcohol from the production wells, but is unable to accurately predict the PCE removal. The final model uses a calibration of the initial PCE distribution to get good matches with the PCE effluent curves from the extraction wells. It is evident that the effectiveness of DNAPL source zone remediation is mainly affected by characteristics of the spatial heterogeneity of porous media and the variable (and unknown) DNAPL distribution. The inherent uncertainty in the DNAPL distribution at real field sites means that some form of calibration of the initial contaminant distribution will almost always be required to match contaminant effluent breakthrough curves.

Delineating risk zones and evaluation of shelter centres for flood disaster management along the Pahang River Basin, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Isahak, Anizan; Siwar, Chamhuri; Ismail, Shaharuddin M.; Hanafi, Zulkifli; Zainuddin, Mohd S.

2018-01-01

Shelter centres are important locations to safeguard people from helpless situations and are an integral part of disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly for flood DRR. The establishment of shelter centres, and their design based on scientific assessment, is crucial. Yet, they are very much related to the geographic location, socio-economic conditions and the livelihoods of the affected communities. However, many parts of the developing world are still lagging behind in ensuring such scientific design. Considering the flood disaster in 2014 that affected the residents living along the Pahang River Basin, in this study we delineate the communities at risk and evaluate the existing shelter centres to determine how they reduce people’s vulnerability to the risks associated with rural and urban landscapes. We used spatial analysis tools to delineate risk zones and to evaluate existing evacuation systems. A flood disaster risk map was produced to determine which communities are living with risks. Subsequently, the distribution of shelter centres examined whether they are able to support people living at the flood risk zones. These centres were also evaluated using a set of international guidelines for effective disaster shelters. This reveals that the number of shelter centres is not adequate. The designation and designing of shelter centres are not being done scientifically. The maps produced here have a lot of potential to support disaster management decisions, in particular site selection and the prioritisation of centres. The study concludes with a set of guidelines and recommendations for structural and non-structural measures, such as alternative livelihoods and the potential of ecotourism, which may improve the resilience among flood-affected communities; and the decision-making process for the overall flood DRR initiatives.

A National Assessment of Changes in Flood Exposure in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, N.; Qiang, Y.; Cai, H.; Zou, L.

2017-12-01

Analyzing flood exposure and its temporal trend is the first step toward understanding flood risk, flood hazard, and flood vulnerability. This presentation is based on a national, county-based study assessing the changes in population and urban areas in high-risk flood zones from 2001-2011 in the contiguous United States. Satellite land use land cover data, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)'s 100-year flood maps, and census data were used to extract the proportion of developed (urban) land in flood zones by county in the two time points, and indices of difference were calculated. Local Moran's I statistic was applied to identify hotspots of increase in urban area in flood zones, and geographically weighted regression was used to estimate the population in flood zones from the land cover data. Results show that in 2011, an estimate of about 25.3 million people (8.3% of the total population) lived in the high-risk flood zones. Nationally, the ratio of urban development in flood zones is less than the ratio of land in flood zones, implying that Americans were responsive to flood hazards by avoiding development in flood zones. However, this trend varied from place to place, with coastal counties having less urban development in flood zones than the inland counties. Furthermore, the contrast between coastal and inland counties increased during 2001-2011. Finally, several exceptions from the trend (hotspots) were detected, most notably New York City and Miami where significant increases in urban development in flood zones were found. This assessment provides important baseline information on the spatial patterns of flood exposure and their changes from 2001-2011. The study pinpoints regions that may need further investigations and better policy to reduce the overall flood risks. Methodologically, the study demonstrates that pixelated land cover data can be integrated with other natural and human data to investigate important societal problems. The same

A back-fitting algorithm to improve real-time flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaojing; Liu, Pan; Cheng, Lei; Liu, Zhangjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-07-01

Real-time flood forecasting is important for decision-making with regards to flood control and disaster reduction. The conventional approach involves a postprocessor calibration strategy that first calibrates the hydrological model and then estimates errors. This procedure can simulate streamflow consistent with observations, but obtained parameters are not optimal. Joint calibration strategies address this issue by refining hydrological model parameters jointly with the autoregressive (AR) model. In this study, five alternative schemes are used to forecast floods. Scheme I uses only the hydrological model, while scheme II includes an AR model for error correction. In scheme III, differencing is used to remove non-stationarity in the error series. A joint inference strategy employed in scheme IV calibrates the hydrological and AR models simultaneously. The back-fitting algorithm, a basic approach for training an additive model, is adopted in scheme V to alternately recalibrate hydrological and AR model parameters. The performance of the five schemes is compared with a case study of 15 recorded flood events from China's Baiyunshan reservoir basin. Our results show that (1) schemes IV and V outperform scheme III during the calibration and validation periods and (2) scheme V is inferior to scheme IV in the calibration period, but provides better results in the validation period. Joint calibration strategies can therefore improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. Additionally, the back-fitting recalibration strategy produces weaker overcorrection and a more robust performance compared with the joint inference strategy.

Assessment of flooding impacts in terms of sustainability in Mainland China.

PubMed

Ni, Jinren; Sun, Liying; Li, Tianhong; Huang, Zheng; Borthwick, Alistair G L

2010-10-01

An understanding of flood impact in terms of sustainability is vital for long-term disaster risk reduction. This paper utilizes two important concepts: conventional insurance related flood risk for short-term damage by specific flood events, and long-term flood impact on sustainability. The Insurance Related Flood Risk index, IRFR, is defined as the product of the Flood Hazard Index (FHI) and Vulnerability. The Long-term Flood Impact on Sustainability index, LFIS, is the ratio of the flood hazard index to the Sustainable Development Index (SDI). Using a rapid assessment approach, quantitative assessments of IRFR and LFIS are carried out for 2339 counties and cities in mainland China. Each index is graded from 'very low' to 'very high' according to the eigenvalue magnitude of cluster centroids. By combining grades of FHI and SDI, mainland China is then classified into four zones in order to identify regional variations in the potential linkage between flood hazard and sustainability. Zone I regions, where FHI is graded 'very low' or 'low' and SDI is 'medium' to 'very high', are mainly located in western China. Zone II regions, where FHI and SDI are 'medium' or 'high', occur in the rapidly developing areas of central and eastern China. Zone III regions, where FHI and SDI are 'very low' or 'low', correspond to the resource-based areas of western and north-central China. Zone IV regions, where FHI is 'medium' to 'very high' and SDI is 'very low' to 'low', occur in ecologically fragile areas of south-western China. The paper also examines the distributions of IRFR and LFIS throughout mainland China. Although 57% of the counties and cities have low IRFR values, 64% have high LFIS values. The modal values of LFIS are ordered as Zone I<Zone II approximately Zone III<Zone IV; whereas the modal values of IRFR are ordered as Zone I<Zone III<Zone IV<Zone II. It is recommended that present flood risk policies be altered towards a more sustainable flood risk management strategy

Monitoring and Management of Coastal Zones Which are Under Flooding Risk with Remote Sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Direk, S.; Seker, D. Z.; Musaoglu, N.; Gazioglu, C.

2012-12-01

Coastal zone areas play an important role in value to the welfare of nations and provides natural, social, cultural and economic benefits and increased quality of life. A great majority of the earth population live in coastal zone areas and they are under flooding risk due to tsunamies, storm surge, typhoon, sea level rise, precipitation and dam destruction. Global warming from the grenhouse effect raises sea level by expanding seawater, melting water and causing ice sheets to melt. Based on a selection of nine long, high quality tide gauge records, Holgate analyzed that the Mean Sea Level (MSL) rise over the period of 1904-2003 was found to be 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/year. Consider the whole century showed that the high decadal rates of change in global MSL was observed during the last 20 years of the records. Based on 4 tide gauge records in Marmara Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, Yildiz analyzed that MSL rise during 1984-2002 was found to be 9.6 ± 0.9 mm/year, 5.1 ± 1 mm/year and 8.7 ± 0.8 mm/year respectively. By analyzing the whole recorded data, it is found that the annual MSL rise in eastern mediterranean was 4-7 mm/year which was higher than the global prediction. A rise in sea level would accelerate coastal erosion, aggravate flooding, threaten coastal area structures and inundate wetlands. The salinity of rivers and bays would increase. A 1 meter in sea level rise would enable a 15-20 year storm to flood many areas. Higher water levels would reduce coastal drainage which would cause an increase flooding by rain storms. Finally, a rise in sea level would raise water tables and would flood basements. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a state of art technology and operationally being used more frequently by commercial and scientific society. GIS system provides a stable platform for the integration of data from different sources, allows a large quantity of data to be stored and processed, provides a seamless geographical database and provides a

Real-time flood forecasting by employing artificial neural network based model with zoning matching approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulaiman, M.; El-Shafie, A.; Karim, O.; Basri, H.

2011-10-01

Flood forecasting models are a necessity, as they help in planning for flood events, and thus help prevent loss of lives and minimize damage. At present, artificial neural networks (ANN) have been successfully applied in river flow and water level forecasting studies. ANN requires historical data to develop a forecasting model. However, long-term historical water level data, such as hourly data, poses two crucial problems in data training. First is that the high volume of data slows the computation process. Second is that data training reaches its optimal performance within a few cycles of data training, due to there being a high volume of normal water level data in the data training, while the forecasting performance for high water level events is still poor. In this study, the zoning matching approach (ZMA) is used in ANN to accurately monitor flood events in real time by focusing the development of the forecasting model on high water level zones. ZMA is a trial and error approach, where several training datasets using high water level data are tested to find the best training dataset for forecasting high water level events. The advantage of ZMA is that relevant knowledge of water level patterns in historical records is used. Importantly, the forecasting model developed based on ZMA successfully achieves high accuracy forecasting results at 1 to 3 h ahead and satisfactory performance results at 6 h. Seven performance measures are adopted in this study to describe the accuracy and reliability of the forecasting model developed.

78 FR 45938 - Final Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

...] Final Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Final notice. SUMMARY: Flood hazard determinations, which may include additions or modifications of Base Flood Elevations (BFEs), base flood depths, Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundaries or zone designations, or...

Numerical investigation of complex flooding schemes for surfactant polymer based enhanced oil recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Sourav; Daripa, Prabir

2015-11-01

Surfactant-polymer flooding is a widely used method of chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in which an array of complex fluids containing suitable and varying amounts of surfactant or polymer or both mixed with water is injected into the reservoir. This is an example of multiphase, multicomponent and multiphysics porous media flow which is characterized by the spontaneous formation of complex viscous fingering patterns and is modeled by a system of strongly coupled nonlinear partial differential equations with appropriate initial and boundary conditions. Here we propose and discuss a modern, hybrid method based on a combination of a discontinuous, multiscale finite element formulation and the method of characteristics to accurately solve the system. Several types of flooding schemes and rheological properties of the injected fluids are used to numerically study the effectiveness of various injection policies in minimizing the viscous fingering and maximizing oil recovery. Numerical simulations are also performed to investigate the effect of various other physical and model parameters such as heterogeneity, relative permeability and residual saturation on the quantities of interest like cumulative oil recovery, sweep efficiency, fingering intensity to name a few. Supported by the grant NPRP 08-777-1-141 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of The Qatar Foundation).

Modeling Flood Insurance Penetration in the European Non-Life Market: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, P.; Thomson, M.-K.; Das, A.

2012-04-01

Non-life property insurance plays a significant role in assessing and managing economic risk. Understanding the exposure, or property at risk, helps insurers and reinsurers to better categorize and manage their portfolios. However, the nature of the flood peril, in particular adverse selection, has led to a complex system of different insurance covers and policies across Europe owing to its public and private distinctions based on premiums provided as ex ante or ex post, socio-economic characterization and various compensation schemes. To model this significant level of complexity within the European flood insurance market requires not only extensive data research, close understanding of insurance companies and associations as well as historic flood events, but also careful evaluation of the flood hazard in terms of return periods and flood extents, and the economic/ financial background of the geographies involved. This abstract explores different approaches for modeling the flood insurance penetration rates in Europe depending on the information available and complexity involved. For countries which have either a regulated market with mandatory or high penetration rate, as for example found in the UK, France and Switzerland, or indeed countries with negligible insurance cover such as Luxembourg, assumptions about the penetration rates can be made at country level. However, in countries with a private insurance market, the picture becomes inherently more complex. For example in both Austria and Germany, flood insurance is generally restricted, associated with high costs to the insured or not available at all in high risk areas. In order to better manage flood risk, the Austria and German government agencies produced the risk classification systems HORA and ZÜRS, respectively, which categorize risk into four risk zones based on the exceedance probability of a flood occurrence. Except for regions that have preserved mandatory flood inclusion from past policies

Coastal Zone Hazards Related to Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions and Groundwater Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontar, Y. A.; Ozorovich, Y. R.; Salokhiddinov, A. T.

2009-12-01

Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in natural and man-made disasters since the turn of the 21st century (Wirtz, 2008). Further, natural and man-made hazards can lead to extreme financial losses (Elsner et al, 2009). Hazards, hydrological and geophysical risk analysis related to groundwater-surface water interactions and groundwater flooding have been to a large extent under-emphasized for coastal zone applications either due to economical limitations or underestimation of its significance. This is particularly true for tsunamis creating salt water intrusion to coastal aquifers, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models (Geist and Parsons, 2006), and to increasing mineralization of potable water because of intensive water diversions and also the abundance of highly toxic pollutants (mainly pesticides) in water, air and food, which contribute to the deterioration of the coastal population's health (Glantz, 2007). In the wake of pressing environmental and economic issues, it is of prime importance for the scientific community to shed light onto the great efforts by hydrologists and geophysicists to quantify conceptual uncertainties and to provide quality assurances of potential coastal zone hazard evaluation and prediction. This paper proposes consideration of two case studies which are important and significant for future development and essential for feasibility studies of hazards in the coastal zone. The territory of the Aral Sea Region in Central Asia is known as an ecological disaster coastal zone (Zavialov, 2005). It is now obvious that, in order to provide reasonable living conditions to the coastal zone population, it is first of all necessary to drastically improve the quality of the water dedicated to human needs. Due to their intensive pollution by industrial wastes and by drainage waters from irrigated fields, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers can no longer be considered

Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

PubMed

Porse, Erik

2014-01-01

Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

78 FR 14584 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

...; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1296] Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Comments are requested on proposed flood hazard..., Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundary or zone designation, or regulatory floodway on the Flood...

Hydraulic and hydrologic aspects of flood-plain planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Jetter, K.R.; Sommerville, Alan J.

1961-01-01

The valid incentives compelling occupation of the flood plain, up to and eve n into the stream channel, undoubtedly have contributed greatly to the development of the country. But the result has been a heritage of flood disaster, suffering, and enormous costs. Flood destruction awakened a consciousness toward reduction and elimination of flood hazards, originally manifested in the protection of existing developments. More recently, increased knowledge of the problem has shown the impracticability of permitting development that requires costly flood protect/on. The idea of flood zoning, or flood-plain planning, has received greater impetus as a result of this realization. This study shows how hydraulic and hydrologic data concerning the flood regimen of a stream can be used in appraising its flood potential and the risk inherent in occupation of its flood plain. The approach involves the study of flood magnitudes as recorded or computed; flood frequencies based1 on experience shown by many years of gaging-station record; use of existing or computed stagedischarge relations and flood profiles; and, where required, the preparation of flood-zone maps to show the areas inundated by floods of several magnitudes and frequencies. The planner can delineate areas subject to inundation by floods o* specific recurrence intervals for three conditions: (a) for the immediate vicinity of a gaging station; (b) for a gaged stream at a considerable distance from a gaging station; and (c) for an ungaged stream. The average depth for a flood of specific frequency can be estimated on the basis of simple measurements of area of drainage basin, width of channel, and slope of streambed. This simplified approach should be useful in the initial stages of flood-plain planning. Brief discussions are included on various types of flood hazards, the effects of urbanization on flood runoff, and zoning considerations.

Groundwater flow, nutrient, and stable isotope dynamics in the parafluvial-hyporheic zone of the regulated Lower Colorado River (Texas, USA) over the course of a small flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briody, Alyse C.; Cardenas, M. Bayani; Shuai, Pin; Knappett, Peter S. K.; Bennett, Philip C.

2016-06-01

Periodic releases from an upstream dam cause rapid stage fluctuations in the Lower Colorado River near Austin, Texas, USA. These daily pulses modulate fluid exchange and residence times in the hyporheic zone where biogeochemical reactions are typically pronounced. The effects of a small flood pulse under low-flow conditions on surface-water/groundwater exchange and biogeochemical processes were studied by monitoring and sampling from two dense transects of wells perpendicular to the river. The first transect recorded water levels and the second transect was used for water sample collection at three depths. Samples were collected from 12 wells every 2 h over a 24-h period which had a 16-cm flood pulse. Analyses included nutrients, carbon, major ions, and stable isotopes of water. The relatively small flood pulse did not cause significant mixing in the parafluvial zone. Under these conditions, the river and groundwater were decoupled, showed potentially minimal mixing at the interface, and did not exhibit any discernible denitrification of river-borne nitrate. The chemical patterns observed in the parafluvial zone can be explained by evaporation of groundwater with little mixing with river water. Thus, large pulses may be necessary in order for substantial hyporheic mixing and exchange to occur. The large regulated river under a low-flow and small flood pulse regime functioned mainly as a gaining river with little hydrologic connectivity beyond a narrow hyporheic zone.

General calibration methodology for a combined Horton-SCS infiltration scheme in flash flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabellani, S.; Silvestro, F.; Rudari, R.; Boni, G.

2008-12-01

Flood forecasting undergoes a constant evolution, becoming more and more demanding about the models used for hydrologic simulations. The advantages of developing distributed or semi-distributed models have currently been made clear. Now the importance of using continuous distributed modeling emerges. A proper schematization of the infiltration process is vital to these types of models. Many popular infiltration schemes, reliable and easy to implement, are too simplistic for the development of continuous hydrologic models. On the other hand, the unavailability of detailed and descriptive information on soil properties often limits the implementation of complete infiltration schemes. In this work, a combination between the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (SCS-CN) and a method derived from Horton equation is proposed in order to overcome the inherent limits of the two schemes. The SCS-CN method is easily applicable on large areas, but has structural limitations. The Horton-like methods present parameters that, though measurable to a point, are difficult to achieve a reliable estimate at catchment scale. The objective of this work is to overcome these limits by proposing a calibration procedure which maintains the large applicability of the SCS-CN method as well as the continuous description of the infiltration process given by the Horton's equation suitably modified. The estimation of the parameters of the modified Horton method is carried out using a formal analogy with the SCS-CN method under specific conditions. Some applications, at catchment scale within a distributed model, are presented.

Achieving Natural Flood Management through collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, Alex; Byers, Samantha; Thomas, Ted; Welton, Phil

2016-04-01

Recent flooding in the UK has brought much attention to the field of Natural flood Management (NFM) as a means of helping to reduce flood risk to communities. Key questions exist in the field, which include quantifying the impact of NFM and maintaining it. In addition, agencies and at-risk communities look for ways of delivering NFM in a tightly stretched financial climate. Well-implemented NFM has the effect of restoring more natural catchment hydrological and sedimentological processes, which in turn can have significant flood risk and WFD benefits for catchment waterbodies. These catchment scale improvements in-turn allow more 'natural' processes to be returned to rivers and streams, creating a more resilient system. NFM can tick many boxes and target many funding opportunities. This paper discusses the NFM component of the Lustrum Beck Flood Alleviation Scheme (Stockton-On-Tees, UK), and explains how a multi-agency approach had to be considered to allow elements of the scheme to be delivered. A startling 70 different landowners and agencies manage the land in the Lustrum Beck catchment (~40km2). A partnership between the Environment Agency and the Forestry Commission is planning to work on a demonstration site in the centre of the catchment. The paper goes on to explain the importance of this demonstration area in the context of the wider scheme.

Quantifying riverine and storm-surge flood risk by single-family residence: application to Texas.

PubMed

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Kunreuther, Howard; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

2013-12-01

The development of catastrophe models in recent years allows for assessment of the flood hazard much more effectively than when the federally run National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created in 1968. We propose and then demonstrate a methodological approach to determine pure premiums based on the entire distribution of possible flood events. We apply hazard, exposure, and vulnerability analyses to a sample of 300,000 single-family residences in two counties in Texas (Travis and Galveston) using state-of-the-art flood catastrophe models. Even in zones of similar flood risk classification by FEMA there is substantial variation in exposure between coastal and inland flood risk. For instance, homes in the designated moderate-risk X500/B zones in Galveston are exposed to a flood risk on average 2.5 times greater than residences in X500/B zones in Travis. The results also show very similar average annual loss (corrected for exposure) for a number of residences despite their being in different FEMA flood zones. We also find significant storm-surge exposure outside of the FEMA designated storm-surge risk zones. Taken together these findings highlight the importance of a microanalysis of flood exposure. The process of aggregating risk at a flood zone level-as currently undertaken by FEMA-provides a false sense of uniformity. As our analysis indicates, the technology to delineate the flood risks exists today. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Understanding the geomorphology of macrochannel systems for flood risk management in Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky

2016-04-01

The year 2010-2011 was the wettest on record for the state of Queensland, Australia producing catastrophic floods. A tropical low pressure system in 2013 delivered further extreme flood events across South East Queensland (SEQ) which prompted state and local governments to conduct studies into flood magnitude and frequency in the region and catchment factors contributing to flood hazards. The floods in the region are strongly influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, but also modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) which leads to flood and drought dominated regimes and high hydrological variability. One geomorphic feature in particular exerted a significant control on the transmission speed, the magnitude of flood inundation and resultant landscape resilience. This feature was referred to as a 'macrochannel', a term used to describe a 'large-channel' which has bankfull recurrence intervals generally greater than 10 years. The macrochannels display non-linear downstream hydraulic geometry which leads to zones of flood expansion (when hydraulic geometry decreases) and zones of flood contraction (when hydraulic geometry increases). The pattern of contraction and expansion zones determines flood hazard zones. The floods caused significant wet flow bank mass failures that mobilised over 1,000,000 m3 of sediment in one subcatchment. Results suggest that the wetflow bank mass failures are a stage in a cyclical evolution process which maintains the macrochannel morphology, hence channel resilience to floods. Chronological investigations further show the macrochannels are laterally stable and identify periods of heightened flood activity over the past millennium and upper limits on flood magnitude. This paper elaborates on the results of the geomorphic investigations on Lockyer Creek in SEQ and how the results have alerted managers and policy makers to the different flood responses of these systems and how flood risk management plans can

Evaluation of Flooding Risk and Engineering Protection Against Floods for Ulan-Ude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borisova, T. A.

2017-11-01

The report presents the results of the study on analysis and risk assessment in relation to floods for Ulan-Ude and provides the developed recommendations of the activities for engineering protection of the population and economic installations. The current situation is reviewed and the results of the site survey are shown to identify the challenges and areas of negative water influence along with the existing security system. The report presents a summary of floods and index risk assessment. The articles describes the scope of eventual flooding, underflooding and enumerates the economic installations inside the urban areas’ research-based zones of flooding at the rated levels of water to identify the likeliness of exceedance. The assessment of damage from flood equal to 1% is shown.

Rethinking the relationship between flood risk perception and flood management.

PubMed

Birkholz, S; Muro, M; Jeffrey, P; Smith, H M

2014-04-15

Although flood risk perceptions and their concomitant motivations for behaviour have long been recognised as significant features of community resilience in the face of flooding events, there has, for some time now, been a poorly appreciated fissure in the accompanying literature. Specifically, rationalist and constructivist paradigms in the broader domain of risk perception provide different (though not always conflicting) contexts for interpreting evidence and developing theory. This contribution reviews the major constructs that have been applied to understanding flood risk perceptions and contextualises these within broader conceptual developments around risk perception theory and contemporary thinking around flood risk management. We argue that there is a need to re-examine and re-invigorate flood risk perception research, in a manner that is comprehensively underpinned by more constructivist thinking around flood risk management as well as by developments in broader risk perception research. We draw attention to an historical over-emphasis on the cognitive perceptions of those at risk to the detriment of a richer understanding of a wider range of flood risk perceptions such as those of policy-makers or of tax-payers who live outside flood affected areas as well as the linkages between these perspectives and protective measures such as state-supported flood insurance schemes. Conclusions challenge existing understandings of the relationship between risk perception and flood management, particularly where the latter relates to communication strategies and the extent to which those at risk from flooding feel responsible for taking protective actions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The 1965 Mississippi River flood in Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwob, Harlan H.; Myers, Richard E.

1965-01-01

Flood data compiled for the part of the River along the eastern border include flood discharges, flood elevations, and the frequency of floods of varying magnitudes. They also include the daily or more frequent stage and discharge data for both the Mississippi River and the downstream gaging stations on Iowa tributaries for the period March-May 1965. Sufficient data are presented to permit studied for preparation of plans for protective works and plans for zoning or for flood plain regulation.

78 FR 21136 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-09

... zone designations, or the regulatory floodway (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations), as shown on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood... appeals to the Chief Executive Officer of the community as listed in the table below. FOR FURTHER...

78 FR 35300 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-12

... zone designations, or the regulatory floodway (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations), as shown on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood... appeals to the Chief Executive Officer of the community as listed in the table below. FOR FURTHER...

Study of flood defense structural measures priorities using Compromise Programming technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, D.; Jeong, S.

2017-12-01

Recent climate change of global warming has led to the frequent occurrence of heavy regional rainfalls. As such, inundation vulnerability increases in urban areas with high population density due to the low runoff carrying capacity. This study selects a sample area (Janghang-eup, the Republic of Korea), which is one of the most vulnerable areas to flooding, analyzing the urban flood runoff model (XP-SWMM) and using the MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) technique to establish flood protection structural measures. To this end, we compare the alternatives and choose the optimal flood defense measure: our model is utilized with three flood prevention structural measures; (i) drainage pipe construction; (ii) water detention; and (iii) flood pumping station. Dividing the target area into three small basins, we propose flood evaluations for an inundation decrease by studying the flooded area, the maximum inundation depth, the damaged residential area, and the construction cost. In addition, Compromise Programming determines the priority of the alternatives. As a consequent, this study suggests flood pumping station for Zone 1 and drainage pipe construction for Zone 2 and Zone 3, respectively, as the optimal flood defense alternative. Keywords : MCDM; Compromise Programming; Urban Flood Prevention; This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-DP-2013-62] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

Mathematical modeling of high-pH chemical flooding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhuyan, D.; Lake, L.W.; Pope, G.A.

1990-05-01

This paper describes a generalized compositional reservoir simulator for high-pH chemical flooding processes. This simulator combines the reaction chemistry associated with these processes with the extensive physical- and flow-property modeling schemes of an existing micellar/polymer flood simulator, UTCHEM. Application of the model is illustrated for cases from a simple alkaline preflush to surfactant-enhanced alkaline-polymer flooding.

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

2013-02-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our

Case Studies of the ROZ CO 2 Flood and the Combined ROZ/MPZ CO 2 Flood at the Goldsmith Landreth Unit, Ector County, Texas. Using ''Next Generation'' CO 2 EOR Technologies to Optimize the Residual Oil Zone CO 2 Flood

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trentham, Robert C.; Melzer, L. Stephen; Kuuskraa, Vello

2015-06-30

The technology for CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO 2 EOR) has significantly advanced since the earliest floods were implemented in the 1970s. At least for the Permian Basin region of the U.S., the oil recovery has been now been extended into residual oil zones (ROZs) where the mobile fluid phase is water and immobile phase is oil. But the nature of the formation and fluids within the ROZs has brought some challenges that were not present when flooding the MPZs. The Goldsmith-Landreth project in the Permian Basin was intended to first identify the most pressing issues of the ROZsmore » floods and, secondly, begin to address them with new techniques designed to optimize a flood that commingled the MPZ and the ROZ. The early phase of the research conducted considerable reservoir and fluid characterization work and identified both technical and commercial challenges of producing the enormous quantities of water when flooding the ROZs. It also noted the differing water compositions in the ROZ as compared to the overlying MPZs. A new CO 2 gas lift system using a capillary string was successfully applied during the project which conveyed the CO 2 to the deeper and differing ROZ reservoir conditions at Goldsmith and added a second capillary string that facilitated applying scale inhibitors to mitigate the scaling tendencies of the mixing ROZ and MPZ formation waters. The project also undertook a reservoir modeling effort, using the acquired reservoir characterization data, to history match both the primary and water flood phases of the MPZ and to establish the initial conditions for a modeling effort to forecast response of the ROZ to CO 2 EOR. With the advantage of many profile logs acquired from the operator, some concentration on the original pattern area for the ROZ pilot was accomplished to attempt to perfect the history match for that area. Several optional scenarios for producing the ROZ were simulated seeking to find the preferred mode of producing the two

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Su, C.-H.; Crow, W. T.; Robertson, D. E.; Leahy, C.

2014-09-01

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate active and passive satellite soil moisture (SSM) retrievals using an ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large semi-arid catchment in Australia (>40 000 km2). We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM-DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation and seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NS = 0.77) than the lumped model (NS = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the "ungauged" inner catchments. After SM-DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 27 and 31%, respectively; the NS of the ensemble mean increased by 7 and 38%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 15 and 25%, respectively; and the ensemble prediction spread was reduced while its reliability was maintained. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed SSM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM-DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM-DA is effective at improving streamflow ensemble prediction, however, the updated

Urbanization and climate change implications in flood risk management: Developing an efficient decision support system for flood susceptibility mapping.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Yew

2018-04-26

The effects of urbanization and climate change impact to the flood risk of two governorates in Egypt were analyzed. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to the annual rainfall, rainfall anomaly, and temperature anomaly of both study sites. Next, change points and trends of the annual and monthly surface runoff data generated by the Curve Number method over 1948-2014 were also analyzed to detect the effects of urbanization on the surface runoff. Lastly, a GIS decision support system was developed to delineate flood susceptibility zones for the two governorates. The significant decline in annual rainfall and rainfall anomaly after 1994 at 8.96 and 15.3 mm/decade respectively was likely due to climate change impact, especially significant warming trend since 1976 at 0.16 °C/decade, though that could partly be attributed to rapid urbanization. Since 1970, effects of urbanization to flood risk are clear, because despite a decline in rainfall, the annual surface runoff and runoff anomaly show positive trends of 12.7 and of 14.39 mm/decade, respectively. Eleven flood contributing factors have been identified and used in mapping flood susceptibility zones of both sites. In the El-Beheira governorate, 9.2%, 17.9%, 32.3%, 28.3% and 12.3% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Similarly, in Alexandria governorate, 15.9%, 33.5%, 41%, 8.8% and 0.8% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Very high and high susceptible zones are located in the northern, northwestern and northeastern parts of the Beheira governorates, and in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Alexandria. The flood related information obtained in this study will be useful to assist mitigating potential flood damages and future land use planning of both governorates of Egypt. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

Process-based model with flood control measures towards more realistic global flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mu, M.; Lv, A.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

In the profoundly human-influenced era, the Anthropocene, increased amount of land was developed in flood plains and many flood control measures were implemented to protect people and infrastructures placed in the flood-prone areas. These human influences (for example, dams and dykes) have altered peak streamflow and flood risk, and are already an integral part of flood. However, most of the process-based flood models have yet to taken into account the human influences. In this study, we used a hydrological model together with an advanced hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk at the Baiyangdian catchment. The Baiyangdian Lake is the largest shallow freshwater lake in North China, and it was used as a flood storage area in the past. A new development hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic triangle, namely the Xiongan new area, was recently established in the flood-prone area around the lake. The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEMs) was used to parameterize the hydrodynamic model simulation, and the inundation estimates were compared with published flood maps and observed inundation area during the extreme historical flood events. A simple scheme was carried out to consider the impacts of flood control measures, including the reservoirs in the headwaters and the dykes to be built. By comparing model simulations with and without the influences of flood control measures, we demonstrated the importance of human influences in altering the inundated area and depth under design flood conditions. Based on the SRTM DEM and dam and reservoir data in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database, we further discuss the potential to develop a global flood model with human influences.

Dynamics of flood water infiltration and ground water recharge in hyperarid desert.

PubMed

Dahan, Ofer; Tatarsky, Boaz; Enzel, Yehouda; Kulls, Christoph; Seely, Mary; Benito, Gererdo

2008-01-01

A study on flood water infiltration and ground water recharge of a shallow alluvial aquifer was conducted in the hyperarid section of the Kuiseb River, Namibia. The study site was selected to represent a typical desert ephemeral river. An instrumental setup allowed, for the first time, continuous monitoring of infiltration during a flood event through the channel bed and the entire vadose zone. The monitoring system included flexible time domain reflectometry probes that were designed to measure the temporal variation in vadose zone water content and instruments to concurrently measure the levels of flood and ground water. A sequence of five individual floods was monitored during the rainy season in early summer 2006. These newly generated data served to elucidate the dynamics of flood water infiltration. Each flood initiated an infiltration event which was expressed in wetting of the vadose zone followed by a measurable rise in the water table. The data enabled a direct calculation of the infiltration fluxes by various independent methods. The floods varied in their stages, peaks, and initial water contents. However, all floods produced very similar flux rates, suggesting that the recharge rates are less affected by the flood stages but rather controlled by flow duration and available aquifer storage under it. Large floods flood the stream channel terraces and promote the larger transmission losses. These, however, make only a negligible contribution to the recharge of the ground water. It is the flood duration within the active streambed, which may increase with flood magnitude that is important to the recharge process.

An active monitoring method for flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zeqiang; Chen, Nengcheng; Du, Wenying; Gong, Jianya

2018-07-01

Timely and active detecting and monitoring of a flood event are critical for a quick response, effective decision-making and disaster reduction. To achieve the purpose, this paper proposes an active service framework for flood monitoring based on Sensor Web services and an active model for the concrete implementation of the active service framework. The framework consists of two core components-active warning and active planning. The active warning component is based on a publish-subscribe mechanism implemented by the Sensor Event Service. The active planning component employs the Sensor Planning Service to control the execution of the schemes and models and plans the model input data. The active model, called SMDSA, defines the quantitative calculation method for five elements, scheme, model, data, sensor, and auxiliary information, as well as their associations. Experimental monitoring of the Liangzi Lake flood in the summer of 2010 is conducted to test the proposed framework and model. The results show that 1) the proposed active service framework is efficient for timely and automated flood monitoring. 2) The active model, SMDSA, is a quantitative calculation method used to monitor floods from manual intervention to automatic computation. 3) As much preliminary work as possible should be done to take full advantage of the active service framework and the active model.

Assessing lateral flows and solute transport during floods in a conduit-flow-dominated karst system using the inverse problem for the advection-diffusion equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cholet, Cybèle; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Moussa, Roger; Steinmann, Marc; Denimal, Sophie

2017-07-01

The aim of this study is to present a framework that provides new ways to characterize the spatio-temporal variability of lateral exchanges for water flow and solute transport in a karst conduit network during flood events, treating both the diffusive wave equation and the advection-diffusion equation with the same mathematical approach, assuming uniform lateral flow and solute transport. A solution to the inverse problem for the advection-diffusion equations is then applied to data from two successive gauging stations to simulate flows and solute exchange dynamics after recharge. The study site is the karst conduit network of the Fourbanne aquifer in the French Jura Mountains, which includes two reaches characterizing the network from sinkhole to cave stream to the spring. The model is applied, after separation of the base from the flood components, on discharge and total dissolved solids (TDSs) in order to assess lateral flows and solute concentrations and compare them to help identify water origin. The results showed various lateral contributions in space - between the two reaches located in the unsaturated zone (R1), and in the zone that is both unsaturated and saturated (R2) - as well as in time, according to hydrological conditions. Globally, the two reaches show a distinct response to flood routing, with important lateral inflows on R1 and large outflows on R2. By combining these results with solute exchanges and the analysis of flood routing parameters distribution, we showed that lateral inflows on R1 are the addition of diffuse infiltration (observed whatever the hydrological conditions) and localized infiltration in the secondary conduit network (tributaries) in the unsaturated zone, except in extreme dry periods. On R2, despite inflows on the base component, lateral outflows are observed during floods. This pattern was attributed to the concept of reversal flows of conduit-matrix exchanges, inducing a complex water mixing effect in the saturated zone

Flood maps in Europe - methods, availability and use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; van Alphen, J.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2009-03-01

To support the transition from traditional flood defence strategies to a flood risk management approach at the basin scale in Europe, the EU has adopted a new Directive (2007/60/EC) at the end of 2007. One of the major tasks which member states must carry out in order to comply with this Directive is to map flood hazards and risks in their territory, which will form the basis of future flood risk management plans. This paper gives an overview of existing flood mapping practices in 29 countries in Europe and shows what maps are already available and how such maps are used. Roughly half of the countries considered have maps covering as good as their entire territory, and another third have maps covering significant parts of their territory. Only five countries have very limited or no flood maps available yet. Of the different flood maps distinguished, it appears that flood extent maps are the most commonly produced floods maps (in 23 countries), but flood depth maps are also regularly created (in seven countries). Very few countries have developed flood risk maps that include information on the consequences of flooding. The available flood maps are mostly developed by governmental organizations and primarily used for emergency planning, spatial planning, and awareness raising. In spatial planning, flood zones delimited on flood maps mainly serve as guidelines and are not binding. Even in the few countries (e.g. France, Poland) where there is a legal basis to regulate floodplain developments using flood zones, practical problems are often faced which reduce the mitigating effect of such binding legislation. Flood maps, also mainly extent maps, are also created by the insurance industry in Europe and used to determine insurability, differentiate premiums, or to assess long-term financial solvency. Finally, flood maps are also produced by international river commissions. With respect to the EU Flood Directive, many countries already have a good starting point to map

Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

2017-12-01

There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS

Back analysis of Swiss flood danger map to define local flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choffet, Marc; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

2010-05-01

The flood hazard maps for the entire Switzerland will be available at the end of 2011. Furthermore, the Swiss territory has been covered by aerial laser scanning (ALS) providing high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). This paper describes the development of a method for analyzing the local flood hazard based on Swiss hazard maps and HR-DEM. In their original state, Swiss hazard maps are constructed on the basis of an aggregation of information, a matrix intensity, and frequency. The degree of danger represented by the yellow, blue and red zones gives no information on the water level at each point of the territory. The developed method is based on a superposition of the danger map with the HR-DEM to determine the water level in a hazard area. To perform this method, (1) a triangulation is based on the intersection of the hazard map with the HR-DEM. It uses the limits of area where information is contrain. The hazard map perimeter and the boundaries of hazard areas give information on the widest possible overflow in case of flooding. It is also possible to associate it with a return period. (2) Based on these areas and the difference with the DEM, it is possible to calibrate the highest flood level and the extract water levels for the entire area. This analysis of existing documents opens up interesting perspectives for understanding how infrastructures are threatened by flood hazard by predicting water levels and potential damages to buildings while proposing remedial measures. Indeed, this method allows estimating the water level at each point of a building in case of flooding. It is designed to provide spatial information on water height levels; this offers a different approach of buildings in danger zones. Indeed, it is possible to discern several elements, such as areas of water accumulation involving longer flood duration, possible structural damages to buildings due to high hydrostatic pressure, determination of a local hazard, or the display of water

Hydrological disposition of flash flood and debris flows events in an Alpine watershed in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenner, David; Kaitna, Roland; Mostbauer, Karin; Hrachowitz, Markus

2017-04-01

Debris flows and flash floods including intensive bedload transport represent severe hazards in the Alpine environment of Austria. For neither of these processes, explicit rainfall thresholds - even for specific regions - are available. This may be due to insufficient data on the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation, but probably also due to variations of the geomorphic and hydrological disposition of a watershed to produce such processes in the course of a rainfall event. In this contribution we investigate the importance of the hydrological system state for triggering debris flows and flash floods in the Ill/Suggadin watershed (500 km2), Austria, by analyzing the effects of dynamics in system state variables such as soil moisture, snow pack, or ground water level. The analysis is based on a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, spatially discretizing the watershed according to the available precipitation observations, elevation, topographic considerations and land cover. Input data are available from six weather stations on a daily basis ranging back to 1947. A Thiessen polygon decomposition results in six individual precipitation zones with a maximum area of about 130 km2. Elevation specific behavior of the quantities temperature and precipitation is covered through an elevation-resolved computation every 200 m. Spatial heterogeneity is considered by distinct hydrological response units for bare rock, forest, grassland, and riparian zone. To reduce numerical smearing on the hydrological results, the Implicit Euler scheme was used to discretize the balance equations. For model calibration we utilized runoff hydrographs, snow cover data as well as prior parameter and process constraints. The obtained hydrological output variables are linked to documented observed flash flood and debris flow events by means of a multivariate logistic regression. We present a summary about the daily hydrological disposition of experiencing a flash flood or

A uniform technique for flood frequency analysis.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, W.O.

1985-01-01

This uniform technique consisted of fitting the logarithms of annual peak discharges to a Pearson Type III distribution using the method of moments. The objective was to adopt a consistent approach for the estimation of floodflow frequencies that could be used in computing average annual flood losses for project evaluation. In addition, a consistent approach was needed for defining equitable flood-hazard zones as part of the National Flood Insurance Program. -from ASCE Publications Information

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

An efficient and stable hydrodynamic model with novel source term discretization schemes for overland flow and flood simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Xilin; Liang, Qiuhua; Ming, Xiaodong; Hou, Jingming

2017-05-01

Numerical models solving the full 2-D shallow water equations (SWEs) have been increasingly used to simulate overland flows and better understand the transient flow dynamics of flash floods in a catchment. However, there still exist key challenges that have not yet been resolved for the development of fully dynamic overland flow models, related to (1) the difficulty of maintaining numerical stability and accuracy in the limit of disappearing water depth and (2) inaccurate estimation of velocities and discharges on slopes as a result of strong nonlinearity of friction terms. This paper aims to tackle these key research challenges and present a new numerical scheme for accurately and efficiently modeling large-scale transient overland flows over complex terrains. The proposed scheme features a novel surface reconstruction method (SRM) to correctly compute slope source terms and maintain numerical stability at small water depth, and a new implicit discretization method to handle the highly nonlinear friction terms. The resulting shallow water overland flow model is first validated against analytical and experimental test cases and then applied to simulate a hypothetic rainfall event in the 42 km2 Haltwhistle Burn, UK.

From flood management systems to flood resilient systems: integration of flood resilient technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salagnac, J.-L.; Diez, J.; Tourbier, J.

2012-04-01

Flooding has always been a major risk world-wide. Humans chose to live and develop settlements close to water (rivers, seas) due to the resources water brings, i.e. food, energy, capacity to economically transport persons and goods, and recreation. However, the risk from flooding, including pluvial flooding, often offsets these huge advantages. Floods sometimes have terrible consequences from both a human and economic point of view. The permanence and growth of urban areas in flood-prone zones despite these risks is a clear indication of the choices of concerned human groups. The observed growing concentration of population along the sea shore, the increase of urban population worldwide, the exponential growth of the world population and possibly climate change are factors that confirm flood will remain a major issue for the next decades. Flood management systems are designed and implemented to cope with such situations. In spite of frequent events, lessons look to be difficult to draw out and progresses are rather slow. The list of potential triggers to improve flood management systems is nevertheless well established: information, education, awareness raising, alert, prevention, protection, feedback from events, ... Many disciplines are concerned which cover a wide range of soft and hard sciences. A huge amount of both printed and electronic literature is available. Regulations are abundant. In spite of all these potentially favourable elements, similar questions spring up after each new significant event: • Was the event forecast precise enough? • Was the alert system efficient? • Why were buildings built in identified flood prone areas? • Why did the concerned population not follow instructions? • Why did the dike break? • What should we do to avoid it happens again? • What about damages evaluation, wastes and debris evacuation, infrastructures and buildings repair, activity recovery, temporary relocation of inhabitants, health concerns, insurance

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Flood Mapping in the Lower Mekong River Basin Using Daily MODIS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fayne, Jessica V.; Bolten, John D.; Doyle, Colin S.; Fuhrmann, Sven; Rice, Matthew T.; Houser, Paul R.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2017-01-01

In flat homogenous terrain such as in Cambodia and Vietnam, the monsoon season brings significant and consistent flooding between May and November. To monitor flooding in the Lower Mekong region, the near real-time NASA Flood Extent Product (NASA-FEP) was developed using seasonal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) differences from the 250 m resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor compared to daily observations. The use of a percentage change interval classification relating to various stages of flooding reduces might be confusing to viewers or potential users, and therefore reducing the product usage. To increase the product usability through simplification, the classification intervals were compared with other commonly used change detection schemes to identify the change classification scheme that best delineates flooded areas. The percentage change method used in the NASA-FEP proved to be helpful in delineating flood boundaries compared to other change detection methods. The results of the accuracy assessments indicate that the -75% NDVI change interval can be reclassified to a descriptive 'flood' classification. A binary system was used to simplify the interpretation of the NASA-FEP by removing extraneous information from lower interval change classes.

Inventory and mapping of flood inundation using interactive digital image analysis techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohde, Wayne G.; Nelson, Charles A.; Taranik, J.V.

1979-01-01

LANDSAT digital data and color infra-red photographs were used in a multiphase sampling scheme to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by a flood. The LANDSAT data were classified with a maximum likelihood algorithm. Stratification of the LANDSAT data, prior to classification, greatly reduced misclassification errors. The classification results were used to prepare a map overlay showing the areal extent of flooding. These data also provided statistics required to estimate sample size in a two phase sampling scheme, and provided quick, accurate estimates of areas flooded for the first phase. The measurements made in the second phase, based on ground data and photo-interpretation, were used with two phase sampling statistics to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by flooding These results show that LANDSAT digital data can be used to prepare map overlays showing the extent of flooding on agricultural land and, with two phase sampling procedures, can provide acreage estimates with sampling errors of about 5 percent. This procedure provides a technique for rapidly assessing the areal extent of flood conditions on agricultural land and would provide a basis for designing a sampling framework to estimate the impact of flooding on crop production.

Response of Plant Height, Species Richness and Aboveground Biomass to Flooding Gradient along Vegetation Zones in Floodplain Wetlands, Northeast China.

PubMed

Lou, Yanjing; Pan, Yanwen; Gao, Chuanyu; Jiang, Ming; Lu, Xianguo; Xu, Y Jun

2016-01-01

Flooding regime changes resulting from natural and human activity have been projected to affect wetland plant community structures and functions. It is therefore important to conduct investigations across a range of flooding gradients to assess the impact of flooding depth on wetland vegetation. We conducted this study to identify the pattern of plant height, species richness and aboveground biomass variation along the flooding gradient in floodplain wetlands located in Northeast China. We found that the response of dominant species height to the flooding gradient depends on specific species, i.e., a quadratic response for Carex lasiocarpa, a negative correlation for Calamagrostis angustifolia, and no response for Carex appendiculata. Species richness showed an intermediate effect along the vegetation zone from marsh to wet meadow while aboveground biomass increased. When the communities were analysed separately, only the water table depth had significant impact on species richness for two Carex communities and no variable for C. angustifolia community, while height of dominant species influenced aboveground biomass. When the three above-mentioned communities were grouped together, variations in species richness were mainly determined by community type, water table depth and community mean height, while variations in aboveground biomass were driven by community type and the height of dominant species. These findings indicate that if habitat drying of these herbaceous wetlands in this region continues, then two Carex marshes would be replaced gradually by C. angustifolia wet meadow in the near future. This will lead to a reduction in biodiversity and an increase in productivity and carbon budget. Meanwhile, functional traits must be considered, and should be a focus of attention in future studies on the species diversity and ecosystem function in this region.

Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

2002-04-01

Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

Mesh versus bathtub - effects of flood models on exposure analysis in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2016-04-01

In Switzerland, mainly two types of maps that indicate potential flood zones are available for flood exposure analyses: 1) Aquaprotect, a nationwide overview provided by the Federal Office for the Environment and 2) communal flood hazard maps available from the 26 cantons. The model used to produce Aquaprotect can be described as a bathtub approach or linear superposition method with three main parameters, namely the horizontal and vertical distance of a point to water features and the size of the river sub-basin. Whereas the determination of flood zones in Aquaprotect is based on a uniform, nationwide model, the communal flood hazard maps are less homogenous, as they have been elaborated either at communal or cantonal levels. Yet their basic content (i.e. indication of potential flood zones for three recurrence periods, with differentiation of at least three inundation depths) is described in national directives and the vast majority of communal flood hazard maps are based on 2D inundation simulations using meshes. Apart from the methodical differences between Aquaprotect and the communal flood hazard maps (and among different communal flood hazard maps), all of these maps include a layer with a similar recurrence period (i.e. Aquaprotect 250 years, flood hazard maps 300 years) beyond the intended protection level of installed structural systems. In our study, we compare the resulting exposure by overlaying the two types of flood maps with a complete, harmonized, and nationwide dataset of building polygons. We assess the different exposure at the national level, and also consider differences among the 26 cantons and the six biogeographically unique regions, respectively. It was observed that while the nationwide exposure rates for both types of flood maps are similar, the differences within certain cantons and biogeographical regions are remarkable. We conclude that flood maps based on bathtub models are appropriate for assessments at national levels, while maps

One-dimensional GIS-based model compared with a two-dimensional model in urban floods simulation.

PubMed

Lhomme, J; Bouvier, C; Mignot, E; Paquier, A

2006-01-01

A GIS-based one-dimensional flood simulation model is presented and applied to the centre of the city of Nîmes (Gard, France), for mapping flow depths or velocities in the streets network. The geometry of the one-dimensional elements is derived from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The flow is routed from one element to the next using the kinematic wave approximation. At the crossroads, the flows in the downstream branches are computed using a conceptual scheme. This scheme was previously designed to fit Y-shaped pipes junctions, and has been modified here to fit X-shaped crossroads. The results were compared with the results of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model based on the full shallow water equations. The comparison shows that good agreements can be found in the steepest streets of the study zone, but differences may be important in the other streets. Some reasons that can explain the differences between the two models are given and some research possibilities are proposed.

Attribution of local climate zones using a multitemporal land use/land cover classification scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicki, Andreas; Parlow, Eberhard

2017-04-01

Worldwide, the number of people living in an urban environment exceeds the rural population with increasing tendency. Especially in relation to global climate change, cities play a major role considering the impacts of extreme heat waves on the population. For urban planners, it is important to know which types of urban structures are beneficial for a comfortable urban climate and which actions can be taken to improve urban climate conditions. Therefore, it is essential to differ between not only urban and rural environments, but also between different levels of urban densification. To compare these built-up types within different cities worldwide, Stewart and Oke developed the concept of local climate zones (LCZ) defined by morphological characteristics. The original LCZ scheme often has considerable problems when adapted to European cities with historical city centers, including narrow streets and irregular patterns. In this study, a method to bridge the gap between a classical land use/land cover (LULC) classification and the LCZ scheme is presented. Multitemporal Landsat 8 data are used to create a high accuracy LULC map, which is linked to the LCZ by morphological parameters derived from a high-resolution digital surface model and cadastral data. A bijective combination of the different classification schemes could not be achieved completely due to overlapping threshold values and the spatially homogeneous distribution of morphological parameters, but the attribution of LCZ to the LULC classification was successful.

Evidence of floods on the Potomac River from anatomical abnormalities in the wood of flood-plain trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yanosky, Thomas M.

1983-01-01

Ash trees along the Potomac River flood plain near Washington, D.C., were studied to determine changes in wood anatomy related to flood damage, and anomalous growth was compared to flood records for April 15 to August 31, 1930-79. Collectively, anatomical evidence was detected for 33 of the 34 growing-season floods during the study period. Evidence of 12 floods prior to 1930 was also noted, including catastrophic ones in 1889 and 1924. Trees damaged after the transition from earlywood to latewood growth typically formed ' flood rings ' of enlarged vessels within the latewood zone. Trees damaged near the beginning of the growth year developed flood rings within, or contiguous with, the earlywood. Both patterns are assumed to have developed when flood-damaged trees produced a second crop of leaves. Trees damaged by high-magnitude floods developed well formed flood rings along the entire height and around the entire circumference of the stem. Small floods were generally associated wtih diffuse or discontinuous anomalies restricted to stem apices. Frequency of flood rings was positively related to flood magnitude, and time of flood generation during the tree-growth season was estimated from the radial position of anomalous growth relative to annual ring width. Reconstructing tree heights in a year of flood-ring formation gives a minimum stage estimate along local stream reaches. Some trees provided evidence of numerous floods. Those with the greatest number of flood rings grew on frequently flooded surfaces subject to flood-flow velocities of at least 1 m/s, and more typically greater than 2 m/s. Tree size, more than age, was related to flood-ring formation. Trees kept small by frequent flood damage had more flood rings than taller trees of comparable age. (USGS)

77 FR 56669 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-13

...Comments are requested on proposed flood hazard determinations, which may include additions or modifications of any Base Flood Elevation (BFE), base flood depth, Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundary or zone designation, or regulatory floodway on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood Insurance Study (FIS) reports for the communities listed in the table below. The purpose of this notice is to seek general information and comment regarding the preliminary FIRM, and where applicable, the FIS report that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has provided to the affected communities. The FIRM and FIS report are the basis of the floodplain management measures that the community is required either to adopt or to show evidence of having in effect in order to qualify or remain qualified for participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). In addition, the FIRM and FIS report, once effective, will be used by insurance agents and others to calculate appropriate flood insurance premium rates for new buildings and the contents of those buildings.

Response of Plant Height, Species Richness and Aboveground Biomass to Flooding Gradient along Vegetation Zones in Floodplain Wetlands, Northeast China

PubMed Central

Lou, Yanjing; Pan, Yanwen; Gao, Chuanyu; Jiang, Ming; Lu, Xianguo; Xu, Y. Jun

2016-01-01

Flooding regime changes resulting from natural and human activity have been projected to affect wetland plant community structures and functions. It is therefore important to conduct investigations across a range of flooding gradients to assess the impact of flooding depth on wetland vegetation. We conducted this study to identify the pattern of plant height, species richness and aboveground biomass variation along the flooding gradient in floodplain wetlands located in Northeast China. We found that the response of dominant species height to the flooding gradient depends on specific species, i.e., a quadratic response for Carex lasiocarpa, a negative correlation for Calamagrostis angustifolia, and no response for Carex appendiculata. Species richness showed an intermediate effect along the vegetation zone from marsh to wet meadow while aboveground biomass increased. When the communities were analysed separately, only the water table depth had significant impact on species richness for two Carex communities and no variable for C. angustifolia community, while height of dominant species influenced aboveground biomass. When the three above-mentioned communities were grouped together, variations in species richness were mainly determined by community type, water table depth and community mean height, while variations in aboveground biomass were driven by community type and the height of dominant species. These findings indicate that if habitat drying of these herbaceous wetlands in this region continues, then two Carex marshes would be replaced gradually by C. angustifolia wet meadow in the near future. This will lead to a reduction in biodiversity and an increase in productivity and carbon budget. Meanwhile, functional traits must be considered, and should be a focus of attention in future studies on the species diversity and ecosystem function in this region. PMID:27097325

Flood of May 5 and 6, 1981, Mobile, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ming, C.O.; Nelson, G.H.

1981-01-01

Heavy and intense rainfall in the late evening and early morning hours, May 5 and 6, 1981, caused widespread flooding along streams and low-lying areas in the port city of Mobile, Ala. More than 12 inches of rain fell between 6 p.m. May 5, and 3 a.m. May 6. Damage caused by flooding was estimated by the Mobile Department of Public Works to be millions of dollars. Maximum water surface elevations on streams in the area were 2 to 3 feet higher than those that occurred during a similar flood in April 1980. The approximate extent of flooding delineated on maps using flood profiles obtained by field surveys will provide a basis for formulating effective flood plain zoning that could minimize existing and future flood problems. (USGS)

Developing a Malaysia flood model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseldine, Lucy; Baxter, Stephen; Wheeler, Phil; Thomson, Tina

2014-05-01

Faced with growing exposures in Malaysia, insurers have a need for models to help them assess their exposure to flood losses. The need for an improved management of flood risks has been further highlighted by the 2011 floods in Thailand and recent events in Malaysia. The increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in Malaysia has lead to the development of the first nationwide probabilistic Malaysia flood model, which we present here. The model is multi-peril, including river flooding for thousands of kilometres of river and rainfall-driven surface water flooding in major cities, which may cause losses equivalent to river flood in some high-density urban areas. The underlying hazard maps are based on a 30m digital surface model (DSM) and 1D/2D hydraulic modelling in JFlow and RFlow. Key mitigation schemes such as the SMART tunnel and drainage capacities are also considered in the model. The probabilistic element of the model is driven by a stochastic event set based on rainfall data, hence enabling per-event and annual figures to be calculated for a specific insurance portfolio and a range of return periods. Losses are estimated via depth-damage vulnerability functions which link the insured damage to water depths for different property types in Malaysia. The model provides a unique insight into Malaysian flood risk profiles and provides insurers with return period estimates of flood damage and loss to property portfolios through loss exceedance curve outputs. It has been successfully validated against historic flood events in Malaysia and is now being successfully used by insurance companies in the Malaysian market to obtain reinsurance cover.

Flood model for Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

2017-04-01

scheme to generate probabilistic flood event set. The derived design flows for selected rivers inside model domain were used as an input for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation modelling techniques (using the tool TUFLOW by BMT WBM) on mesh size 30 x 30 metres. Outputs from inundation modelling and stochastic event set were implemented in the Aon Benfield's platform ELEMENTS developed and managed internally by Impact Forecasting; Aon Benfield internal catastrophe model development center. The model was designed to evaluate potential financial impact caused by fluvial flooding on portfolios of insurance and/or reinsurance companies. The structure of presented model follows typical scheme of financial loss catastrophe model and combines hazard with exposure and vulnerability to produce potential financial loss expressed in the form of loss exceedance probability curve and many other insured perspectives, such as average annual loss, event or quantile loss tables and etc. Model can take financial inputs as well as provide split of results for exact specified location or related higher administrative units: municipalities and 5-digit postal codes.

Optimized polymer enhanced foam flooding for ordinary heavy oil reservoir after cross-linked polymer flooding.

PubMed

Sun, Chen; Hou, Jian; Pan, Guangming; Xia, Zhizeng

2016-01-01

A successful cross-linked polymer flooding has been implemented in JD reservoir, an ordinary heavy oil reservoir with high permeability zones. For all that, there are still significant volumes of continuous oil remaining in place, which can not be easily extracted due to stronger vertical heterogeneity. Considering selective plugging feature, polymer enhanced foam (PEF) flooding was taken as following EOR technology for JD reservoir. For low cost and rich source, natural gas was used as foaming gas in our work. In the former work, the surfactant systems CEA/FSA1 was recommended as foam agent for natural gas foam flooding after series of compatibility studies. Foam performance evaluation experiments showed that foaming volume reached 110 mL, half-life time reached 40 min, and dimensionless filter coefficient reached 1.180 when CEA/FSA1 reacted with oil produced by JD reservoir. To compare the recovery efficiency by different EOR technologies, series of oil displacement experiments were carried out in a parallel core system which contained cores with relatively high and low permeability. EOR technologies concerned in our work include further cross-linked polymer (C-P) flooding, surfactant-polymer (S-P) flooding, and PEF flooding. Results showed that PEF flooding had the highest enhanced oil recovery of 19.2 % original oil in place (OOIP), followed by S-P flooding (9.6 % OOIP) and C-P flooding (6.1 % OOIP). Also, produced liquid percentage results indicated PEF flooding can efficiently promote the oil recovery in the lower permeability core by modifying the injection profile.

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

A hybrid Lagrangian Voronoi-SPH scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gutierrez, D.; Souto-Iglesias, A.; Zohdi, T. I.

2018-07-01

A hybrid Lagrangian Voronoi-SPH scheme, with an explicit weakly compressible formulation for both the Voronoi and SPH sub-domains, has been developed. The SPH discretization is substituted by Voronoi elements close to solid boundaries, where SPH consistency and boundary conditions implementation become problematic. A buffer zone to couple the dynamics of both sub-domains is used. This zone is formed by a set of particles where fields are interpolated taking into account SPH particles and Voronoi elements. A particle may move in or out of the buffer zone depending on its proximity to a solid boundary. The accuracy of the coupled scheme is discussed by means of a set of well-known verification benchmarks.

A hybrid Lagrangian Voronoi-SPH scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gutierrez, D.; Souto-Iglesias, A.; Zohdi, T. I.

2017-11-01

A hybrid Lagrangian Voronoi-SPH scheme, with an explicit weakly compressible formulation for both the Voronoi and SPH sub-domains, has been developed. The SPH discretization is substituted by Voronoi elements close to solid boundaries, where SPH consistency and boundary conditions implementation become problematic. A buffer zone to couple the dynamics of both sub-domains is used. This zone is formed by a set of particles where fields are interpolated taking into account SPH particles and Voronoi elements. A particle may move in or out of the buffer zone depending on its proximity to a solid boundary. The accuracy of the coupled scheme is discussed by means of a set of well-known verification benchmarks.

Towards a Flood Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

The December 2008 flood event in Rome: Was it really an extreme event?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lastoria, B.; Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Bussettini, M.

2009-04-01

In mid December 2008, Italy suffered bad weather with heavy snowfall blanketing the north and strong winds and downpours pelting the centre-south. In particular, during the period between 10th and 12th December, intense precipitation struck the Tyrrhenian Sea side of the peninsula, inducing a flood event, which captured the attention of the national and international media, on the Tiber river and on its tributary, the Aniene. The relevance of the event was caused by the actual damages occurred in several zones over Rome area, in particular due to the downpours and to damages which would have occurred if Tiber river had overflowed its banks. The event, which was initially considered as extreme, was indeed severe but not so exceptional as shown by the meteo-hydrological post-event analysis. The peak water level of 12.55 m, recorded on 13th December at 1:30 a.m. (local time) at the Ripetta station, which is situated along the Tiber river in the centre of Rome, was higher than those observed during the last ten years (which to the utmost reached 11.41 m in December 2005). However, it did not reach the historical maximum of 16.90 m observed in 1937. Moreover, on the basis of the Ripetta historical series, such a level is associated to an ordinary flood event. Even if the flood was ordinary, a state of emergency was declared by the Rome's Mayor, since the event caused severe damages by disrupting flight and train services, blocking off major roads leading into Rome, flooding underpasses and sealing off industrial activities sited in the flooded areas, in particular nearby the confluence of the Aniene river with the Tiber river. In addition, hundreds of people were evacuated and a woman died in a her car which was submerged by a wave of water and mud in an underpass. Given these premises, the present work examines the relation between a severe, but not extraordinary, event and the considerable damages that occurred as a consequence. First, the meteorological evolution of

Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the National Hurricane Center SLOSH model for Storm Surge inundation for category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes.Geographic areas are represented by a grid of 10 by 10 meter cells and each cell has a ranking based on variation in exposure to flooding hazards: Moderate, High and Extreme exposure. Geographic areas in each input layers are ranked based on their probability of flood risk exposure. The logic was such that areas exposed to flooding on a more frequent basis were given a higher ranking. Thus the ranking incorporates the probability of the area being flooded. For example, even though a Category 3 storm surge has higher flooding elevations, the likelihood of the occurrence is lower than a Category 1 storm surge and therefore the Category 3 flood area is given a lower exposure ranking. Extreme exposure areas are those areas that are exposed to relatively frequent flooding.The ranked input layers are then converted to a raster for the creation of the composite risk layer by using cell statistics in spatial analysis. The highest exposure ranking for a given cell in any of the three input layers is assigned to the corresponding cell in the composite layer.For example, if an area (a cell) is rank as medium in the FEMA layer, moderate in the SLOSH layer, but extreme in the SCF layer, the cell will be considere

WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

2017-07-01

An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

Flooding and Flood Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

2011-01-01

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Tacking Flood Risk from Watersheds using a Natural Flood Risk Management Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reaney, S. M.; Pearson, C.; Barber, N.; Fraser, A.

2017-12-01

In the UK, flood risk management is moving beyond solely mitigating at the point of impact in towns and key infrastructure to tackle problem at source through a range of landscape based intervention measures. This natural flood risk management (NFM) approach has been trailed within a range of catchments in the UK and is moving towards being adopted as a key part of flood risk management. The approach offers advantages including lower cost and co-benefits for water quality and habitat creation. However, for an agency or group wishing to implement NFM within a catchment, there are two key questions that need to be addressed: Where in the catchment to place the measures? And how many measures are needed to be effective? With this toolkit, these questions are assessed with a two-stage workflow. First, SCIMAP-Flood gives a risk based mapping of likely locations that contribute to the flood peak. This tool uses information on land cover, hydrological connectivity, flood generating rainfall patterns and hydrological travel time distributions to impacted communities. The presented example applies the tool to the River Eden catchment, UK, with 5m grid resolution and hence provide sub-field scale information at the landscape extent. SCIMAP-Flood identifies sub-catchments where physically based catchment hydrological simulation models can be applied to test different NFM based mitigation measures. In this example, the CRUM3 catchment hydrological model has been applied within an uncertainty framework to consider the effectiveness of soil compaction reduction and large woody debris dams within a sub-catchment. It was found that large scale soil aeration to reduce soil compaction levels throughout the catchment is probably the most useful natural flood management measure for this catchment. NFM has potential for wide-spread application and these tools help to ensure that the measures are correctly designed and the scheme performance can be quantitatively assessed and predicted.

Assessing the environmental justice consequences of flood risk: a case study in Miami, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, Marilyn C.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2015-09-01

Recent environmental justice (EJ) research has emphasized the need to analyze social inequities in the distribution of natural hazards such as hurricanes and floods, and examine intra-ethnic diversity in patterns of EJ. This study contributes to the emerging EJ scholarship on exposure to flooding and ethnic heterogeneity by analyzing the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population residing within coastal and inland flood risk zones in the Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Florida—one of the most ethnically diverse MSAs in the U.S. and one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the world. We examine coastal and inland flood zones separately because of differences in amenities such as water views and beach access. Instead of treating the Hispanic population as a homogenous group, we disaggregate the Hispanic category into relevant country-of-origin subgroups. Inequities in flood risk exposure are statistically analyzed using socio-demographic variables derived from the 2010 U.S. Census and 2007-2011 American Community Survey estimates, and 100-year flood risk zones from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Social vulnerability is represented with two neighborhood deprivation indices called economic insecurity and instability. We also analyze the presence of seasonal/vacation homes and proximity to public beach access sites as water-related amenity variables. Logistic regression modeling is utilized to estimate the odds of neighborhood-level exposure to coastal and inland 100-year flood risks. Results indicate that neighborhoods with greater percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Hispanic subgroups of Colombians and Puerto Ricans are exposed to inland flood risks in areas without water-related amenities, while Mexicans are inequitably exposed to coastal flood risks. Our findings demonstrate the importance of treating coastal and inland flood risks separately while controlling for water-related amenities, and

Investigating extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate in the Chinese monsoonal zone: A palaeoflood case study from the Hanjiang River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yongqiang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Zhou, Yali; Wang, Longsheng; Zhang, Yuzhu; Hu, Guiming

2015-06-01

Palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits (SWDs) were investigated extensively by sedimentological criteria of palaeohydrology along the upper Hanjiang River valley. Modern flood SWDs were collected for comparison with palaeoflood SWD in the same reaches. Three typical palaeoflood SWDs were observed within Holocene loess-soil blanket on the first river terrace land. The grain size distributions of palaeoflood SWDs are similar to modern flood SWDs, whereas they are different from eolian loess and soil. Palaeoflood SWD lies in three major pedo-stratigraphic boundaries (TS/L0, L0/S0, and S0/Lt) in the Holocene loess-soil profiles. The chronology of three palaeoflood episodes was established by OSL dating and pedo-stratigraphic correlation with the well-dated Holocene loess-soil profiles in the upper Hanjiang River basin. Holocene palaeoflood events were dated to 9500-8500, 3200-2800, and 1800-1700 a B.P., respectively. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated by the palaeoflood model (i.e., slope-area method and step-backwater method). The highest discharges are 51,680-53,950 m3 s- 1 at the 11,500-time scale in the Xunyang reach of the upper Hanjiang River valley. Holocene extraordinary hydroclimatic events in the Hanjiang River often result from abnormal atmospheric circulations from Southwest monsoons in the Chinese monsoonal zone. These results provide a regional expression of extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate to understand the effects of global climatic variations on the river system dynamics.

Spatiotemporal Responses of Groundwater Flow and Aquifer-River Exchanges to Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xiuyu; Zhan, Hongbin; Schilling, Keith

2018-03-01

Rapidly rising river stages induced by flood events lead to considerable river water infiltration into aquifers and carry surface-borne solutes into hyporheic zones which are widely recognized as an important place for the biogeochemical activity. Existing studies for surface-groundwater exchanges induced by flood events usually limit to a river-aquifer cross section that is perpendicular to river channels, and neglect groundwater flow in parallel with river channels. In this study, surface-groundwater exchanges to a flood event are investigated with specific considerations of unconfined flow in direction that is in parallel with river channels. The groundwater flow is described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq equation and the flood event is described by a diffusive-type flood wave. Analytical solutions are derived and tested using the numerical solution. The results indicate that river water infiltrates into aquifers quickly during flood events, and mostly returns to the river within a short period of time after the flood event. However, the rest river water will stay in aquifers for a long period of time. The residual river water not only flows back to rivers but also flows to downstream aquifers. The one-dimensional model of neglecting flow in the direction parallel with river channels will overestimate heads and discharge in upstream aquifers. The return flow induced by the flood event has a power law form with time and has a significant impact on the base flow recession at early times. The solution can match the observed hydraulic heads in riparian zone wells of Iowa during flood events.

Macroinvertebrate assemblage recovery following a catastrophic flood and debris flows in an Appalachian mountain stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, C.D.; Johnson, Z.B.

2006-01-01

In June 1995, heavy rains caused severe flooding and massive debris flows on the Staunton River, a 3rd-order stream in the Blue Ridge Mountains (Virginia, USA). Scouring caused the loss of the riparian zone and repositioned the stream channel of the lower 2.1 km of the stream. Between 1998 and 2001, we conducted seasonal macroinvertebrate surveys at sites on the Staunton River and on White Oak Canyon Run, a reference stream of similar size and geology that was relatively unaffected by the flood. Our study was designed to determine the extent to which flood-induced changes to the stream channel and riparian habitats caused long-term changes to macroinvertebrate community structure and composition. Sites within the impacted zone of the Staunton River supported diverse stable benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages 3 y after the flood despite dramatic and persistent changes in environmental factors known to be important controls on stream ecosystem function. However, significant differences in total macroinvertebrate density and trophic structure could be attributed to the flood. In autumn, densities of most feeding guilds, including shredders, were higher at impacted-zone sites than at all other sites, suggesting higher overall productivity in the impacted zone. Higher shredder density in the impacted zone was surprising in light of expected decreases in leaf-litter inputs because of removal of riparian forests. In contrast, in spring, we observed density differences in only one feeding guild, scrapers, which showed higher densities at impacted-zone sites than at all other sites. This result conformed to a priori expectations that reduced shading in the impacted zone would lead to increased light and higher instream primary production. We attribute the seasonal differences in trophic structure to the effects of increased temperatures on food quality and to the relationship between the timing of our sampling and the emergence patterns of important taxa. ?? 2006 by The

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European

On the significance of future trends in flood frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, M.; Schulz, K.; Wieder, O.

2015-12-01

Floods are a significant threat for alpine headwater catchments and for the forelands. The formation of significant flood events is thereby often coupled on processes occurring in the alpine zone. Rain on snow events are just one example. The prediction of flood risks or trends of flood risks is of major interest to people under direct threat, policy and decision makers as well as for insurance companies. A lot of research was and is currently done in view of detecting future trends in flood extremes or return periods. From a pure physically based point of view, there is strong evidence that those trends exist. But, the central point question is if trends in flood events or other extreme events could be detected from a statistical point of view and on the basis of the available data. This study will investigate this question on the basis of different target parameters and by using long term measurements.

Simulating and Forecasting Flooding Events in the City of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghostine, Rabih; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2014-05-01

Metropolitan cities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as Jeddah and Riyadh, are more frequently experiencing flooding events caused by strong convective storms that produce intense precipitation over a short span of time. The flooding in the city of Jeddah in November 2009 was described by civil defense officials as the worst in 27 years. As of January 2010, 150 people were reported killed and more than 350 were missing. Another flooding event, less damaging but comparably spectacular, occurred one year later (Jan 2011) in Jeddah. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision and rescue plans. We have developed a coupled hydro-meteorological model for simulating and predicting flooding events in the city of Jeddah. We use the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model assimilating all available data in the Jeddah region for simulating the storm events in Jeddah. The resulting rain is then used on 10 minutes intervals to feed up an advanced numerical shallow water model that has been discretized on an unstructured grid using different numerical schemes based on the finite elements or finite volume techniques. The model was integrated on a high-resolution grid size varying between 0.5m within the streets of Jeddah and 500m outside the city. This contribution will present the flooding simulation system and the simulation results, focusing on the comparison of the different numerical schemes on the system performances in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

Don't ignore the elephant in the room: How the intangible concept of place influences the decision-making process for flood resettlement in the Danube catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thaler, Thomas; Seebauer, Sebastian; Babcicky, Philipp

2017-04-01

Flood risk management has developed a large inventory of adaptive responses to climate-induced and socio-economic driven hazards. This inventory comprises a wide array of structural and non-structural measures. Yet, one of the most effective responses is planned resettlement of people at risk, were largely ignored as a possible adaptation option towards climate changes in the national flood risk management policies. The study investigates current developments of flood relocation projects and introduces the theoretical concept of place attachment and identity to analyse the challenges when putting flood resettlement initiatives into practice. Two study sites in Austria (Eferdinger Basin and Machland region) illustrate the social and individual dynamics as relocation schemes unfold over time. The relocation scheme is voluntary with the authorities offering to buy out buildings at 80% of their estimated market values, but without compensating for devaluation of the building plot. Legal and administrative processes for executing relocations are well institutionalized. From an engineering standpoint, relocation is the most effective and cost-efficient adaptive response to flood risk in the study areas. However, the measure is socially and politically highly contested. For residents in relocation zones, many profound changes they are confronted with are linked to their place of living, such as iterms of their livelihood, e.g. by no longer passing the family agricultural business to the next generation; in terms of their self-identity, e.g. when tasked to reformulate everyday practices tied to the home left behind; or in terms of rebuilding social networks, e.g. when those who remain have to cope with the thinning out of trusted neighbours. To explore the role of place attachment and identity in individual decision-making, we conducted semi-structured interviews with residents. Our results show that place attachment and identity is a key factor guiding individual

Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

2016-04-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

The impact of bathymetry input on flood simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanam, M.; Cohen, S.

2017-12-01

Flood prediction and mitigation systems are inevitable for improving public safety and community resilience all over the worldwide. Hydraulic simulations of flood events are becoming an increasingly efficient tool for studying and predicting flood events and susceptibility. A consistent limitation of hydraulic simulations of riverine dynamics is the lack of information about river bathymetry as most terrain data record water surface elevation. The impact of this limitation on the accuracy on hydraulic simulations of flood has not been well studies over a large range of flood magnitude and modeling frameworks. Advancing our understanding of this topic is timely given emerging national and global efforts for developing automated flood predictions systems (e.g. NOAA National Water Center). Here we study the response of flood simulation to the incorporation of different bathymetry and floodplain surveillance source. Different hydraulic models are compared, Mike-Flood, a 2D hydrodynamic model, and GSSHA, a hydrology/hydraulics model. We test a hypothesis that the impact of inclusion/exclusion of bathymetry data on hydraulic model results will vary in its magnitude as a function of river size. This will allow researcher and stake holders more accurate predictions of flood events providing useful information that will help local communities in a vulnerable flood zone to mitigate flood hazards. Also, it will help to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of different modeling frameworks and gage their dependency on detailed bathymetry input data.

Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

2014-12-01

In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

2018-05-01

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high

The influence of episodic flooding on a pelagic ecosystem in the East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chung-Chi; Gong, Gwo-Ching; Chou, Wen-Chen; Chung, Chih-Ching; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Shiah, Fuh-Kwo; Chiang, Kuo-Ping

2017-05-01

This study was designed to determine the effects of flooding on a pelagic ecosystem in the East China Sea (ECS) with a focus on plankton activity and plankton community respiration (CR). In July 2010, a flood occurred in the Changjiang River. As a comparison, a variety of abiotic and biotic parameters were monitored during this flooding event and during a non-flooding period (July 2009). During the flood, the Changjiang diluted water (CDW) zone covered almost two-thirds of the ECS, which was approximately 6 times the area covered during the non-flooding period. The mean nitrate concentration was 3-fold higher during the 2010 flood (6.2 vs. 2.0 µM in 2009). CR was also higher in the 2010 flood: 105.6 mg C m-3 d-1 vs. only 73.2 mg C m-3 d-1 in 2009. The higher CR in 2010 could be attributed to phytoplankton respiration, especially at stations in the CDW zone that were not previously characterized by low sea surface salinity in 2009. In addition, zooplankton (> 330 µm) were another important component contributing to the high CR rate observed during the 2010 flood; this was a period also associated with a significant degree of fCO2 drawdown. These results collectively suggest that the 2010 flood had a significant effect on the carbon balance in the ECS. This effect might become more pronounced in the future, as extreme rainfall and flooding events are predicted to increase in both frequency and magnitude due to climate change.

Integrating Physical and Topographic Information Into a Fuzzy Scheme to Map Flooded Area by SAR.

PubMed

Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Chini, Marco; Pulvirenti, Luca; Macina, Flavia

2008-07-10

A flood mapping procedure based on a fuzzy sets theory has been developed. The method is based on the integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements with additional data on the inundated area, such as a land cover map and a digital elevation model (DEM). The information on land cover has allowed us to account for both specular reflection, typical of open water, and double bounce backscattering, typical of forested and urban areas. DEM has been exploited to include simple hydraulic considerations on the dependence of inundation probability on surface characteristics. Contextual information has been taken into account too. The proposed algorithm has been tested on a flood occurred in Italy on November 1994. A pair of ERS-1 images, collected before and after (three days later) the flood, has been used. The results have been compared with the data provided by a ground survey carried out when the flood reached its maximum extension. Despite the temporal mismatch between the survey and the post-inundation SAR image, the comparison has yielded encouraging results, with the 87% of the pixels correctly classified as inundated.

Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

2017-10-01

Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Base (100-year) flood elevations for selected sites in Marion County, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Wilson, Gary L.

1998-01-01

The primary requirement for community participation in the National Flood Insurance Program is the adoption and enforcement of floodplain management requirements that minimize the potential for flood damages to new construction and avoid aggravating existing flooding conditions. This report provides base flood elevations (BFE) for a 100-year recurrence flood for use in the management and regulation of 14 flood-hazard areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as approximate Zone A areas in Marion County, Missouri. The one-dimensional surface-water flow model, HEC-RAS, was used to compute the base (100-year) flood elevations for the 14 Zone A sites. The 14 sites were located at U.S., State, or County road crossings and the base flood elevation was determined at the upstream side of each crossing. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 1, 2, and 3 on the South Fork North River near Monroe City, Missouri, are 627.7, 579.2, and 545.9 feet above sea level. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 4, 5, 6, and 7 on the main stem of the North River near or at Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri, are 560.5, 539.7, 504.2, and 494.4 feet above sea level. BFE 8 is located on Big Branch near Philadelphia, a tributary to the North River, and the base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 530.5 feet above sea level. One site (BFE 9) is located on the South River near Monroe City, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 619.1 feet above sea level. Site BFE 10 is located on Bear Creek near Hannibal, Missouri, and the base (100-year) elevation is 565.5 feet above sea level. The four remaining sites (BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14) are located on the South Fabius River near Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 591.2, 578.4, 538.7, and 506.9 feet above sea level.

Anatomy of a Flash Flood in the Amargosa Desert, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stonestrom, D. A.; Prudic, D. E.; Glancy, P. A.; Beck, D. A.

2004-12-01

In August 2004, intense convective rainstorms caused flash flooding throughout the Amargosa River drainage network, temporarily closing Death Valley National Park and causing two fatalities when runoff from Furnace Creek and other channels overtopped roadways in the Park. In 1998, we began installing streambed temperature loggers, pressure transducers, and scour chains in the normally dry channel and selected tributaries of the river in the Amargosa Desert and Oasis Valley. The primary objective of this work is to improve understanding of ground-water recharge from ephemeral streamflows under current climatic conditions. Two weeks after the flash flooding, we visited instrumented sites and estimated peak flows by surveying high-water marks and corresponding channel geometries. Time series of temperatures and stages, together with peak-flow estimates, reveal the routing and evolution of distinct flood pulses in the upper Amargosa River basin. The data also reveal previously undocumented details of individual flash-flood hydrographs, including initial and subsequent flood pulses at two sites. Arid environments are prone to flash flooding not only because vegetation is sparse, but also because the surface-water network is decoupled from underlying ground water by a thick unsaturated zone. Nonlinear interactions between runoff (with energy potentials on the order of a meter of head) and the unsaturated zone (with energy potentials on the order of negative hundreds of meters of head) keep advancing fronts of flood pulses sharp. Profiles of water content beneath the main channel before and after the passage of a flood pulse, together with down-channel attenuation of flow volume within individual pulses, show the leaky nature of dry alluvial channels and the efficiency at which flash floods become potential recharge.

A dimension reduction method for flood compensation operation of multi-reservoir system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, B.; Wu, S.; Fan, Z.

2017-12-01

Multiple reservoirs cooperation compensation operations coping with uncontrolled flood play vital role in real-time flood mitigation. This paper come up with a reservoir flood compensation operation index (ResFCOI), which formed by elements of flood control storage, flood inflow volume, flood transmission time and cooperation operations period, then establish a flood cooperation compensation operations model of multi-reservoir system, according to the ResFCOI to determine a computational order of each reservoir, and lastly the differential evolution algorithm is implemented for computing single reservoir flood compensation optimization in turn, so that a dimension reduction method is formed to reduce computational complexity. Shiguan River Basin with two large reservoirs and an extensive uncontrolled flood area, is used as a case study, results show that (a) reservoirs' flood discharges and the uncontrolled flood are superimposed at Jiangjiaji Station, while the formed flood peak flow is as small as possible; (b) cooperation compensation operations slightly increase in usage of flood storage capacity in reservoirs, when comparing to rule-based operations; (c) it takes 50 seconds in average when computing a cooperation compensation operations scheme. The dimension reduction method to guide flood compensation operations of multi-reservoir system, can make each reservoir adjust its flood discharge strategy dynamically according to the uncontrolled flood magnitude and pattern, so as to mitigate the downstream flood disaster.

NWS Offshore Marine Forecasts by Zone

Science.gov Websites

Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Tsunamis 406 page is also available in a text version. Similar webpages for Coastal/Great Lakes Forecasts by Zone

Coastal/Great Lakes Forecasts by Zone

Science.gov Websites

Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's Coastal/Great Lakes Forecasts by Zone >>Click on the area of interest below<< Coastal and

Reconciling Environmental and Flood Control Goals on an Arid-Zone River: Case Study of the Limitrophe Region of the Lower Colorado River in the United States and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenn, Edward P.; Hucklebridge, Kate; Hinojosa-Huerta, Osvel; Nagler, Pamela L.; Pitt, Jennifer

2008-03-01

Arid zone rivers have highly variable flow rates, and flood control projects are needed to protect adjacent property from flood damage. On the other hand, riparian corridors provide important wildlife habitat, especially for birds, and riparian vegetation is adapted to the natural variability in flows on these rivers. While environmental and flood control goals might appear to be at odds, we show that both goals can be accommodated in the Limitrophe Region (the shared border between the United States and Mexico) on the Lower Colorado River. In 1999, the International Boundary and Water Commission proposed a routine maintenance project to clear vegetation and create a pilot channel within the Limitrophe Region to improve flow capacity and delineate the border. In 2000, however, Minute 306 to the international water treaty was adopted, which calls for consideration of environmental effects of IBWC actions. We conducted vegetation and bird surveys within the Limitrophe and found that this river segment is unusually rich in native cottonwood and willow trees, marsh habitat, and resident and migratory birds compared to flow-regulated segments of river. A flood-frequency analysis showed that the existing levee system can easily contain a 100 year flood even if vegetation is not removed, and the existing braided channel system has greater carrying capacity than the proposed pilot channel.

Reconciling environmental and flood control goals on an arid-zone river: case study of the limitrophe region of the lower colorado river in the United States and Mexico.

PubMed

Glenn, Edward P; Hucklebridge, Kate; Hinojosa-Huerta, Osvel; Nagler, Pamela L; Pitt, Jennifer

2008-03-01

Arid zone rivers have highly variable flow rates, and flood control projects are needed to protect adjacent property from flood damage. On the other hand, riparian corridors provide important wildlife habitat, especially for birds, and riparian vegetation is adapted to the natural variability in flows on these rivers. While environmental and flood control goals might appear to be at odds, we show that both goals can be accommodated in the Limitrophe Region (the shared border between the United States and Mexico) on the Lower Colorado River. In 1999, the International Boundary and Water Commission proposed a routine maintenance project to clear vegetation and create a pilot channel within the Limitrophe Region to improve flow capacity and delineate the border. In 2000, however, Minute 306 to the international water treaty was adopted, which calls for consideration of environmental effects of IBWC actions. We conducted vegetation and bird surveys within the Limitrophe and found that this river segment is unusually rich in native cottonwood and willow trees, marsh habitat, and resident and migratory birds compared to flow-regulated segments of river. A flood-frequency analysis showed that the existing levee system can easily contain a 100 year flood even if vegetation is not removed, and the existing braided channel system has greater carrying capacity than the proposed pilot channel.

Multi-temporal clustering of continental floods and associated atmospheric circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Yongqiang

2017-12-01

flood hazard mitigation schemes.

Integrating Physical and Topographic Information Into a Fuzzy Scheme to Map Flooded Area by SAR

PubMed Central

Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Chini, Marco; Pulvirenti, Luca; Macina, Flavia

2008-01-01

A flood mapping procedure based on a fuzzy sets theory has been developed. The method is based on the integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements with additional data on the inundated area, such as a land cover map and a digital elevation model (DEM). The information on land cover has allowed us to account for both specular reflection, typical of open water, and double bounce backscattering, typical of forested and urban areas. DEM has been exploited to include simple hydraulic considerations on the dependence of inundation probability on surface characteristics. Contextual information has been taken into account too. The proposed algorithm has been tested on a flood occurred in Italy on November 1994. A pair of ERS-1 images, collected before and after (three days later) the flood, has been used. The results have been compared with the data provided by a ground survey carried out when the flood reached its maximum extension. Despite the temporal mismatch between the survey and the post-inundation SAR image, the comparison has yielded encouraging results, with the 87% of the pixels correctly classified as inundated. PMID:27879928

Preliminary vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood by Puerto Vallarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trejo-Gómez, E.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Ortiz, M.; Escudero, C. R.; CA-UdG-276 Sisvoc

2013-05-01

Jalisco coast is susceptible to local tsunami due to the occurrence of large earthquakes. In 1932 occurred three by largest earthquakes. Evidence suggests that one of them caused by offshore subsidence of sediments deposited by Armeria River. For the tsunamis 1932 have not been studied the seismic source. On October 9, 1995, occurred a large earthquake (Mw= 8.0) producing a tsunami with run up height up ≤ 5 m. This event affected Tenacatita Bay and many small villages along the coast of Jalisco and Colima. Using seismic source parameters, we simulated 1995 tsunami and estimated the maximum wave height. We compared the our results with 20 field measures 20 taked during 1995 along the south cost of Jalisco State, from Chalacatepec to Barra de Navidad. Similar seismic source parameters used for tsunami 1995 simulation was used as reference for simulating a hypothetical seismic source front Puerto Vallarta. We assumed that the fracture occurs in the gap for the north cost of Jalisco. Ten sites were distributed to cover the Banderas Bay, as theoretical pressure sensors, were estimated the maximum wave height and time to arrived at cost. After we delimited zones hazard zones by floods on digital model terrain, a graphic scale 1:20,000. At the moment, we have already included information by hazard caused by hypothetical tsunami in Puerto Vallarta. The hazard zones by flood were the north of Puerto Vallarta, as Ameca, El Salado, El Pitillal and Camarones. The initial wave height could be ≤ 1 m, 15 minutes after earthquake, in Pitillal zone. We estimated for Puerto Vallarta the maximum flood area was in El Salado zone, ≤ 2 km, with the maximum wave height > 3 m to ≤ 4.8 m at 25 and 75 minutes. We estimated a previous vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood; it was based on the spatial distribution of socio-economic data from INEGI. We estimated a low vulnerability in El Salado and height vulnerability for El Pitillal and Ameca.

Three dimensional numerical modeling of flow and pollutant transport in a flooding area of 2008 US Midwest Flood

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper presents the development and application of a three-dimensional numerical model for simulating the flow field and pollutant transport in a flood zone near the confluence of the Mississippi River and Iowa River in Oakville, Iowa. Due to a levee breaching along the Iowa River during the US ...

Financing increasing flood risk: evidence from millions of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, B.; Koks, E. E.; Husby, T. G.; Ward, P. J.

2014-01-01

The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on the accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on the ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information can contribute to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case-study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood prone areas has been higher than in not flood prone areas. We also find that property values in flood prone areas are lower than those in not flood prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2016-09-01

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

Climate Change and Flooding in an Ecologically Fragile Zone of Nigerian Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Ilaje Settlement in Lagos, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, A. F.

2017-12-01

Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.

Floods and Flash Flooding

MedlinePlus

Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you live in ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

New mechanism under International Flood Initiative toward robustness for flood management in the Asia Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murase, M.; Yoshitani, J.; Takeuchi, K.; Koike, T.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to result in increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events. It is imperative that a good understanding is developed of how climate change affects the events that are reflected in hydrological extremes such as floods and how practitioners in water resources management deal with them. Since there is still major uncertainty as to how the impact of climate change affect actual water resources management, it is important to build robustness into management schemes and communities. Flood management under such variety of uncertainty favors the flexible and adaptive implementation both in top-down and bottom-up approaches. The former uses projections of global or spatially downscaled models to drive resource models and project resource impacts. The latter utilizes policy or planning tools to identify what changes in climate would be most threatening to their long-range operations. Especially for the bottom-up approaches, it is essential to identify the gap between what should be done and what has not been achieved for disaster risks. Indicators or index are appropriate tools to measure such gaps, but they are still in progress to cover the whole world. The International Flood Initiative (IFI), initiated in January 2005 by UNESCO and WMO in close cooperation with UNU and ISDR, IAHS and IAHR, has promoted an integrated approach to flood management to take advantage of floods and use of flood plains while reducing the social, environmental and economic risks. Its secretariat is located in ICHARM. The initiative objective is to support national platforms to practice evidence-based disaster risk reduction through mobilizing scientific and research networks at national, regional and international levels. The initiative is now preparing for a new mechanism to facilitate the integrated approach for flood management on the ground regionally in the Asia Pacific (IFI-AP) through monitoring, assessment and capacity building.

The impact of flood variables on riparian vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzubakova, Katarina; Molnar, Peter

2016-04-01

The riparian vegetation of Alpine rivers often grows in temporally dynamic riverine environments which are characterized by pronounced meteorological and hydrological fluctuations and high resource competition. Within these relatively rough conditions, riparian vegetation fulfils essential ecosystem functions such as water retention, biomass production and habitat to endangered species. The identification of relevant flood attributes impacting riparian vegetation is crucial for a better understanding of the vegetation dynamics in the riverine ecosystem. Hence, in this contribution we aim to quantify the ecological effects of flood attributes on riparian vegetation and to analyze the spatial coherence of flood-vegetation interaction patterns. We analyzed a 500 m long and 300-400 m wide study reach located on the Maggia River in southern Switzerland. Altogether five floods between 2008 and 2011 with return periods ranging from 1.4 to 20.1 years were studied. To assess the significance of the flood attributes, we compared post-flood to pre-flood vegetation vigour to flood intensity. Pre- and post-flood vegetation vigour was represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which was computed from images recorded by high resolution ground-based cameras. Flood intensity was expressed in space in the study reach by six flood attributes (inundation duration, maximum depth, maximum and total velocity, maximum and total shear stress) which were simulated by the 2D hydrodynamic model BASEMENT (VAW, ETH Zurich). We considered three floodplain units separately (main bar, secondary bar, transitional zone). Based on our results, pre-flood vegetation vigour largely determined vegetation reaction to the less intense floods (R = 0.59-0.96). However for larger floods with a strong erosive effect, its contribution was significantly lower (R = 0.59-0.68). Using multivariate regression analysis we show that pre-flood vegetation vigour and maximum velocity proved to be

Flood of October 8, 1962, on Bachman Branch and Joes Creek at Dallas, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruggles, Frederick H.

1966-01-01

This report presents hydrologic data that enable the user to define areas susceptible to flooding and to evaluate the flood hazard along Bachman Branch and Joes Creek. The data provide a technical basis for making sound decisions concerning the use of flood-plain lands. The report will be useful for preparing building and zoning regulations, locating waste disposal facilities, purchasing unoccupied land, developing recreational areas, and managing surface water in relation to ground-water resources. This is one of the series of reports delineating the flood hazard on streams in the Dallas area.

Geomorphologic flood-hazard assessment of alluvial fans and piedmonts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, J.J.; Pearthree, P.A.

1997-01-01

Geomorphologic studies are an excellent means of flood-hazard assessment on alluvial fans and piedmonts in the southwestern United States. Inactive, flood-free, alluvial fans display well developed soils, desert pavement, rock varnish, and tributary drainage networks. These areas are easily distinguished from flood-prone active alluvial fans on aerial photographs and in the field. The distribution of flood-prone areas associated with alluvial fans is strongly controlled by fanhead trenches dissecting the surface. Where fanhead trenches are permanent features cut in response to long-term conditions such as tectonic quiescence, flood-prone surfaces are situated down-slope from the mountain front and their positions are stable for thousands of years. Since the length and permanency of fanhead trenches can vary greatly between adjacent drainages, it is not appropriate to use regional generalizations to evaluate the distribution and stability of flood-hazard zones. Site-specific geomorphologic studies must be carried out if piedmont areas with a high risk of flooding are to be correctly identified and losses due to alluvial-fan flooding minimized. To meet the growing demand for trained professionals to complete geomorphologic maps of desert piedmonts, undergraduate and graduate geomorphology courses should adopt an instructional unit on alluvial-fan flood hazards that includes: 1) a review of geomorphologic characteristics that vary with surface age; 2) a basic mapping exercise; and 3) a discussion of the causes of fanhead trenching.

Is there really "nothing you can do"? Pathways to enhanced flood-risk preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox-Rogers, Linda; Devitt, Catherine; O'Neill, Eoin; Brereton, Finbarr; Clinch, J. Peter

2016-12-01

Whilst policy makers have tended to adopt an 'information-deficit model' to bolster levels of flood-risk preparedness primarily though communication strategies promoting awareness, the assumed causal relation between awareness and preparedness is empirically weak. As such, there is a growing interest amongst scholars and policy makers alike to better understand why at-risk individuals are underprepared. In this vein, empirical studies, typically employing quantitative methods, have tended to focus on exploring the extent to which flood-risk preparedness levels vary depending not only on socio-demographic variables, but also (and increasingly so) the perceptual factors that influence flood risk preparedness. This study builds upon and extends this body of research by offering a more solution-focused approach that seeks to identify how pathways to flood-risk preparedness can be opened up. Specifically, through application of a qualitative methodology, we seek to explore how the factors that negatively influence flood-risk preparedness can be addressed to foster a shift towards greater levels of mitigation behaviour. In doing so, we focus our analysis on an urban community in Ireland that is identified as 'at risk' of flash flooding and is currently undergoing significant flood relief works. In this regard, the case study offers an interesting laboratory to explore how attitudes towards flood-risk preparedness at the individual level are being influenced within the context of a flood relief scheme that is only partially constructed. In order to redress the dearth of theoretically informed qualitative studies in this field, we draw on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to help guide our analysis and make sense of our results. Our findings demonstrate that flood-risk preparedness can be undermined by low levels of efficacy amongst individuals in terms of the preparedness measures available to them and their own personal capacity to implement them. We also elucidate that

Flood risk on the Black sea coast of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseevsky, Nikolay; Magritsky, Dmitry; Koltermann, Peter; Krylenko, Inna; Umina, Natalya; Aybulatov, Denis; Efremova, Natalya; Lebedeva, Seraphima

2013-04-01

The data of unique database "Floods in the coastal zones of Europeans part of Russia", developed by authors, are shown, that frequency of floods and damage in the coastal zones are growing. There is most dangerous situation on the Black sea coast of Russia. Here the main part of settlements, resorts and industry is situated in the river valleys and mouths. All main roads and pipelines cross the river channels. The Black sea rivers have flood regime with high intensity of flood formations and huge destructive flood power. Despite prevalence of floods during the cold period of year the most part of high floods in 100 years of supervision was noted here in the summer-fall (65% in July-October). Usually they were induced by the showers connected with passing of powerful cyclones, atmospheric fronts, and water tornadoes. The insignificant part of floods was connected with snow melting, backwater phenomena, showers in the cities and dam breaks. Thus shower induced floods here are the most widespread and destructive. Usually they arise within two-three watersheds simultaneously. Formation catastrophic heavy rain flood is possible on any site of a river valley of the Black Sea coast. The wave of a high water moves with very high speed, carrying a large number of deposits and garbage. To the mouth the flood can be transformed into debris flow. The water levels during a high water period rise on 3-6 m in the channels, and up to 11-12 m in the river canyons; the maximum depths of flow on the floodplains are 3 m and more. Flooding depths, induced by slope streams, can be to 0,5 m and higher. Flooding proceeds only some hours. After that water rather quickly flows down from a floodplains to the bed of the rivers and into the sea, leaving traces of destructions, a powerful layer of deposits (to 10-20 cm and more) and garbage. In the mouth river deposits quite often form the river mouth bar which is washed away during next storms. The damage from river floods on the Black Sea

Rhizosphere dynamics of two riparian plant species from the water fluctuation zone of Three Gorges Reservoir, P.R. China - pH, oxygen and LMWOA monitoring during short flooding events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreiber, Christina M.; Schurr, Ulrich; Zeng, Bo; Höltkemeier, Agnes; Kuhn, Arnd J.

2010-05-01

Since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam at the Yangtze River in China, the reservoir management created a new 30m water fluctuation zone 45-75m above the original water level. Only species well adapted to long-time flooding (up to several months) will be able to vegetate the river banks and replace the original vegetation. To investigate how common species of the riverbanks cope with submergence, Alternanthera philoxeroides Mart. and Arundinella anomala Steud., two flooding resistant riparian species, have been examined in a rhizotron environment. Short-time (2 days waterlogging, 2 days flooding, 2 days recovery) flooding cycles in the original substrate and long time (14 days waterlogging, flooding, recovery) flooding cycles, in original substrate and sterile glass bead substrate, have been simulated in floodable two-way access rhizotrons. Oxygen- and pH-sensitive foils (planar optodes, PreSens) automatically monitored root reaction in a confined space (2cm2 each) on the backside of the rhizotron, while soil solution samples were taken 2 times a day from the other side of the rhizotron at the corresponding area through filter and steel capillaries. The samples were analyzed by capillary electrophoresis for low molecular weight organic acids (LMWOA, i.e. oxalic, formic, succinic, malic, acetic, glyoxylic, lactic and citric acid). Results show diurnal rhythms of rhizospheric acidification for both species in high resolution, combined with oxygen entry into the root surrounding during waterlogged state. Flooding caused stronger acidification in the rhizosphere, that were however not accompanied by increased occurrence of LMWOA except for acetic and glyoxylic acid. First results from longer flooding periods show stable diurnal rhythms during waterlogging, but no strongly increased activity during the flooding event. Performance of the two species is not hampered by being waterlogged, and they follow a silencing strategy during a longer phase of anoxia without

The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Frieler, K.; Schewe, J.; Ostberg, S.; Willner, S. N.; Schauberger, B.; Gosling, S.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Portmann, F. T.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hanasaki, N.; Biemans, H.; Gerten, D.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Stacke, T.; Ciais, P.; Chang, J.; Ducharne, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Wada, Y.; Kim, H.; Yamazaki, D.

2017-12-01

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

The Critical Role of the Routing Scheme in Simulating Peak River Discharge in Global Hydrological Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Fang; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, Jacob; Ostberg, Sebastian; Willner, Sven; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gosling, Simon N.; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Portmann, Felix T.;

Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

2017-12-01

The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

2016-12-01

This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

Floods, floodplains, delta plains — A satellite imaging approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syvitski, James P. M.; Overeem, Irina; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Hannon, Mark

2012-08-01

Thirty-three lowland floodplains and their associated delta plains are characterized with data from three remote sensing systems (AMSR-E, SRTM and MODIS). These data provide new quantitative information to characterize Late Quaternary floodplain landscapes and their penchant for flooding over the last decade. Daily proxy records for discharge since 2002 and for each of the 33 river systems can be derived with novel Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) methods. A descriptive framework based on analysis of Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data is used to capture the major landscape-scale floodplain elements or zones: 1) container valleys with their long and narrow pathways of largely sediment transit and bypass, 2) floodplain depressions that act as loci for frequent flooding and sediment storage, 3) zones of nodal avulsions common to many continental scale rivers, and often located seaward of container valleys, and 4) coastal floodplains and delta plains that offer both sediment bypass and storage but under the influence of marine processes. The SRTM data allow mapping of smaller-scale architectural elements in unprecedented systematic manner. Floodplain depressions were found to play a major role, which may largely be overlooked in conceptual floodplain models. Lastly, MODIS data (independently and combined with AMSR-E) allows the tracking of flood hydrographs and pathways and sedimentation patterns on a near-daily timescale worldwide. These remote-sensing data show that 85% of the studied major river systems experienced extensive flooding in the last decade. A new quantitative paradigm of floodplain processes, honoring the frequency and extent of floods, can be develop by careful analysis of these new remotely sensed data.

Floods in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Follansbee, Robert; Sawyer, Leon R.

1948-01-01

The first records of floods in Colorado antedated the settlement of the State by about 30 years. These were records of floods on the Arkansas and Republican Rivers in 1826. Other floods noted by traders, hunters and emigrants, some of whom were on their way to the Far West, occurred in 1844 on the Arkansas River, and by inference on the South Platte River. Other early floods were those on the Purgatoire, the Lower Arkansas, and the San Juan Rivers about 1859. The most serious flood since settlement began was that on the Arkansas River during June 1921, which caused the loss of about 100 lives and an estimated property loss of $19,000,000. Many floods of lesser magnitude have occurred, and some of these have caused loss of life and very considerable property damage. Topography is the chief factor in determining the location of storms and resulting floods. These occur most frequently on the eastern slope of the Front Range. In the mountains farther west precipitation is insufficient to cause floods except during periods of melting snow, in June. In the southwestern part of the State, where precipitation during periods of melting snow is insufficient to cause floods, the severest floods yet experienced resulted from heavy rains in September 1909 and October 1911. In the eastern foothills region, usually below an altitude of about 7,500 feet and extending for a distance of about 50 miles east of the mountains, is a zone subject to rainfalls of great intensity known as cloudbursts. These cloudbursts are of short duration and are confined to very small areas. At times the intensity is so great as to make breathing difficult for those exposed to a storm. The areas of intense rainfall are so small that Weather Bureau precipitation stations have not been located in them. Local residents, being cloudburst conscious, frequently measure the rainfall in receptacles in their yards, and such records constitute the only source of information regarding the intensity. A flood

A global flash flood forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-04-01

The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial

Dicamptodon tenebrosus larvae within hyporheic zones of intermittent streams in California

Treesearch

David Feral; Michael A. Camann; Hartwell H. Welsh Jr.

2005-01-01

Lotic ecosystems are increasingly viewed as having three interactive spatial compartments, i.e., channel sediments, the hyporheic zone, and flood plains or riparian areas (Cummins et al. 1983; Ward 1989). The hyporheic zone is the sub-benthic habitat of interstitial spaces between substrate particles in the stream bed, and is the transition zone between surface flow...

Exposure to Flood Hazards in Miami and Houston: Are Hispanic Immigrants at Greater Risk than Other Social Groups?

PubMed Central

Maldonado, Alejandra; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2016-01-01

Although numerous studies have been conducted on the vulnerability of marginalized groups in the environmental justice (EJ) and hazards fields, analysts have tended to lump people together in broad racial/ethnic categories without regard for substantial within-group heterogeneity. This paper addresses that limitation by examining whether Hispanic immigrants are disproportionately exposed to risks from flood hazards relative to other racial/ethnic groups (including US-born Hispanics), adjusting for relevant covariates. Survey data were collected for 1283 adult householders in the Houston and Miami Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and flood risk was estimated using their residential presence/absence within federally-designated 100-year flood zones. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) with binary logistic specifications that adjust for county-level clustering were used to analyze (separately) and compare the Houston (N = 546) and Miami (N = 560) MSAs in order to clarify determinants of household exposure to flood risk. GEE results in Houston indicate that Hispanic immigrants have the greatest likelihood, and non-Hispanic Whites the least likelihood, of residing in a 100-year flood zone. Miami GEE results contrastingly reveal that non-Hispanic Whites have a significantly greater likelihood of residing in a flood zone when compared to Hispanic immigrants. These divergent results suggest that human-flood hazard relationships have been structured differently between the two MSAs, possibly due to the contrasting role that water-based amenities have played in urbanization within the two study areas. Future EJ research and practice should differentiate between Hispanic subgroups based on nativity status and attend to contextual factors influencing environmental risk disparities. PMID:27490561

Exposure to Flood Hazards in Miami and Houston: Are Hispanic Immigrants at Greater Risk than Other Social Groups?

PubMed

Maldonado, Alejandra; Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2016-08-01

Although numerous studies have been conducted on the vulnerability of marginalized groups in the environmental justice (EJ) and hazards fields, analysts have tended to lump people together in broad racial/ethnic categories without regard for substantial within-group heterogeneity. This paper addresses that limitation by examining whether Hispanic immigrants are disproportionately exposed to risks from flood hazards relative to other racial/ethnic groups (including US-born Hispanics), adjusting for relevant covariates. Survey data were collected for 1283 adult householders in the Houston and Miami Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and flood risk was estimated using their residential presence/absence within federally-designated 100-year flood zones. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) with binary logistic specifications that adjust for county-level clustering were used to analyze (separately) and compare the Houston (N = 546) and Miami (N = 560) MSAs in order to clarify determinants of household exposure to flood risk. GEE results in Houston indicate that Hispanic immigrants have the greatest likelihood, and non-Hispanic Whites the least likelihood, of residing in a 100-year flood zone. Miami GEE results contrastingly reveal that non-Hispanic Whites have a significantly greater likelihood of residing in a flood zone when compared to Hispanic immigrants. These divergent results suggest that human-flood hazard relationships have been structured differently between the two MSAs, possibly due to the contrasting role that water-based amenities have played in urbanization within the two study areas. Future EJ research and practice should differentiate between Hispanic subgroups based on nativity status and attend to contextual factors influencing environmental risk disparities.

Flood information for flood-plain planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bue, Conrad D.

1967-01-01

Floods are natural and normal phenomena. They are catastrophic simply because man occupies the flood plain, the highwater channel of a river. Man occupies flood plains because it is convenient and profitable to do so, but he must purchase his occupancy at a price-either sustain flood damage, or provide flood-control facilities. Although large sums of money have been, and are being, spent for flood control, flood damage continues to mount. However, neither complete flood control nor abandonment of the flood plain is practicable. Flood plains are a valuable resource and will continue to be occupied, but the nature and degree of occupancy should be compatible with the risk involved and with the degree of protection that is practicable to provide. It is primarily to meet the needs for defining the risk that the flood-inundation maps of the U.S. Geological Survey are prepared.

Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area

Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, B.; Koks, E. E.; Husby, T. G.; Ward, P. J.

2014-05-01

The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

A framework for probabilistic pluvial flood nowcasting for urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Murla, Damian; Wang, Lipen; Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent; Van Herk, Kristine; Van Ootegem, Luc; Willems, Patrick

2016-04-01

Pluvial flood nowcasting is gaining ground not least because of the advancements in rainfall forecasting schemes. Short-term forecasts and applications have benefited from the availability of such forecasts with high resolution in space (~1km) and time (~5min). In this regard, it is vital to evaluate the potential of nowcasting products for urban inundation applications. One of the most advanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) techniques is the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System, which was originally co-developed by the UK Met Office and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The scheme was further tuned to better estimate extreme and moderate events for the Belgian area (STEPS-BE). Against this backdrop, a probabilistic framework has been developed that consists of: (1) rainfall nowcasts; (2) sewer hydraulic model; (3) flood damage estimation; and (4) urban inundation risk mapping. STEPS-BE forecasts are provided at high resolution (1km/5min) with 20 ensemble members with a lead time of up to 2 hours using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. Forecasts' verification was performed over the cities of Leuven and Ghent and biases were found to be small. The hydraulic model consists of the 1D sewer network and an innovative 'nested' 2D surface model to model 2D urban surface inundations at high resolution. The surface components are categorized into three groups and each group is modelled using triangular meshes at different resolutions; these include streets (3.75 - 15 m2), high flood hazard areas (12.5 - 50 m2) and low flood hazard areas (75 - 300 m2). Functions describing urban flood damage and social consequences were empirically derived based on questionnaires to people in the region that were recently affected by sewer floods. Probabilistic urban flood risk maps were prepared based on spatial interpolation techniques of flood inundation. The method has been implemented and tested for the villages Oostakker and Sint-Amandsberg, which are part of the

76 FR 37647 - Safety Zone; Missouri River From the Border Between Montana and North Dakota

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-28

... destruction, loss or injury due to hazards associated with rising flood water. Operation in this zone is... vessels from destruction, loss or injury due to the hazards associated with rising flood water. The... destruction, loss or injury due to the hazards associated with rising flood water. If you are a small business...

Cascadia Subduction Zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2008-01-01

The geometry and recurrence times of large earthquakes associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) were discussed and debated at a March 28-29, 2006 Pacific Northwest workshop for the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps. The CSZ is modeled from Cape Mendocino in California to Vancouver Island in British Columbia. We include the same geometry and weighting scheme as was used in the 2002 model (Frankel and others, 2002) based on thermal constraints (Fig. 1; Fluck and others, 1997 and a reexamination by Wang et al., 2003, Fig. 11, eastern edge of intermediate shading). This scheme includes four possibilities for the lower (eastern) limit of seismic rupture: the base of elastic zone (weight 0.1), the base of transition zone (weight 0.2), the midpoint of the transition zone (weight 0.2), and a model with a long north-south segment at 123.8? W in the southern and central portions of the CSZ, with a dogleg to the northwest in the northern portion of the zone (weight 0.5). The latter model was derived from the approximate average longitude of the contour of the 30 km depth of the CSZ as modeled by Fluck et al. (1997). A global study of the maximum depth of thrust earthquakes on subduction zones by Tichelaar and Ruff (1993) indicated maximum depths of about 40 km for most of the subduction zones studied, although the Mexican subduction zone had a maximum depth of about 25 km (R. LaForge, pers. comm., 2006). The recent inversion of GPS data by McCaffrey et al. (2007) shows a significant amount of coupling (a coupling factor of 0.2-0.3) as far east as 123.8? West in some portions of the CSZ. Both of these lines of evidence lend support to the model with a north-south segment at 123.8? W.

Record Flood-Producing Rainstorms of 17-18 July 1996 in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Part III: Impacts and Responses to the Flash Flooding.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1999-03-01

A record-breaking 24-h rainstorm on 17-18 July 1996 was centered on south Chicago and its southern and western suburbs, areas with a population of 3.4 million. The resulting flash flooding in Chicago and 21 suburbs broke all-time records in the region and brought the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers above flood stage. More than 4300 persons were evacuated from the flooded zones and 35000 homes experienced flood damage. Six persons were killed and the total estimated cost of the flood (losses and recovery actions) was 645 million, ranking as Illinois' second most costly weather disaster on record after the 1993 flood. Extensive damages and travel delays occurred on metropolitan transportation systems (highways and railroads). Commuters were unable to reach Chicago for up to three days and more than 300 freight trains were delayed or rerouted. Communities dealt with removal of flood-damaged materials, as well as damage to streets, bridges, and sewage treatment and water treatment plants. Reduced crop yields in adjacent rural areas represented a 67 million loss of farm income. Conflicts between communities developed over blame for the flooding due to inadequate storage capacity resulting in new regional flood planning. Federal and state aid ultimately reached 265 million, 41% of the storm costs. More than 85000 individuals received assistance, and 222 structures have been relocated under the federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program at a cost of 19.6 million.

Flash-Flood hydrological simulations at regional scale. Scale signature on road flooding vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquetin, Sandrine; Vannier, Olivier; Ollagnier, Mélody; Braud, Isabelle

2015-04-01

evaluation procedure provides new insights on the active hydrological processes at small scales (catchments area < 10 km²) since these small scales, distributed over the whole region, are analyzed through road cuts data and post-flood field investigations. As shown in Vannier (2013), the signature of the altered geological layer is significant on the simulated discharges. For catchments under schisty geology, the simulated discharge, whatever the catchment size, is usually overestimated. Vannier, O, 2013, Apport de la modélisation hydrologique régionale à la compréhension des processus de crue en zone méditerranéenne, PhD-Thesis (in French), Grenoble University.

Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

2011-12-01

Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

Flood risk assessment through 1D/2D couple HEC-RAS hydrodynamic modeling- A case study of Surat City, Lower Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Dhruvesh; Ramirez, Jorge; Srivastava, Prashant; Bray, Michaela; Han, Dawei

2017-04-01

Surat, known as the diamond city of Gujart is situated 100 km downstream of Ukai dam and near the mouth of river Tapi and affected by the flood at every alternate year. The city experienced catastrophic floods in 1933, 1959, 1968, 1970, 1994, 1998 and 2006. It is estimated that a single flood event during August 6-12, 2006 in Surat and Hazira twin-city, caused heavy damages, resulted in the death of 300 people and property damage worth € 289 million. The peak discharge of 25768 m3 s-1 release from Ukai dam was responsible for the disastrous flood in Surat city. To identifylow lying areas prone to inundation and reduce the uncertainty in flood mitigation measures, HEC-RAS based 1D/2D Couple hydrodynamic modeling is carried out for Surat city. Release from the Ukai dam and tidal level of the sea are considered for upstream and downstream boundary condition. 299 surveyed cross-sections have been considered for 1D modeling, whereas a topographic map at 0.5 m contour interval was used to produce a 5 m grid and SRTM (30 & 90 m) grid has been considered for Suart and Lower Tapi Basin (LTB). Flow is simulated under unsteady conditions, calibrated for the year 1998 and validated for the year 2006. The simulated result shows that the 9th August 18.00 hr was the worst day for Surat city and maximum 75-77 % area was under inundation. Most of the flooded area experienced 0.25 m/s water velocity with the duration of 90 hr. Due to low velocity and high duration of the flood, a low lying area within the west zone and south-west zone of the city was badly affected by the flood, whereas the south zone and south-east zone was least. Simulated results show good correlation when compared with an observed flood level map. The simulated results will be helpful to improve the flood resilience strategy at Surat city and reduce the uncertainty for flood inundation mapping for future dam releases. The present case study shows the applicability of 1D/2D coupled hydrodynamic modeling for

A hybrid method for flood simulation in small catchments combining hydrodynamic and hydrological techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellos, Vasilis; Tsakiris, George

2016-09-01

The study presents a new hybrid method for the simulation of flood events in small catchments. It combines a physically-based two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and the hydrological unit hydrograph theory. Unit hydrographs are derived using the FLOW-R2D model which is based on the full form of two-dimensional Shallow Water Equations, solved by a modified McCormack numerical scheme. The method is tested at a small catchment in a suburb of Athens-Greece for a storm event which occurred in February 2013. The catchment is divided into three friction zones and unit hydrographs of 15 and 30 min are produced. The infiltration process is simulated by the empirical Kostiakov equation and the Green-Ampt model. The results from the implementation of the proposed hybrid method are compared with recorded data at the hydrometric station at the outlet of the catchment and the results derived from the fully hydrodynamic model FLOW-R2D. It is concluded that for the case studied, the proposed hybrid method produces results close to those of the fully hydrodynamic simulation at substantially shorter computational time. This finding, if further verified in a variety of case studies, can be useful in devising effective hybrid tools for the two-dimensional flood simulations, which are lead to accurate and considerably faster results than those achieved by the fully hydrodynamic simulations.

Energy crops on floodplains - flood risk or benefit?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosolova, Zdenka; Baylis, Adam; Rose, Steve

2010-05-01

Land use and land management on floodplains have increasingly come into focus, particularly in relation to their impact on flooding. To date, research and modelling has explored the impact of land use changes such as floodplain afforestation, changes to management of upland moorlands or re-establishment of wet meadows on floodplains. However, no such investigation has been carried out into the impact on floodplain flows of growing energy crops. In the UK, a strong emphasis is being given to promotion of renewable energy. Farmers are encouraged to plant energy crops such as Miscanthus or Short Rotation Crops (e.g. Willow) in suitable locations, which typically exclude farmland in Flood Zone 3 (i.e. areas likely to be flooded by an event with a 100-year return period). However, there is a lack of understanding as to what impact, if any, the dense character of these crops planted on floodplains might have on flooding. This gap in knowledge currently prevents energy crops from being planted in areas where they could provide high economic and environmental benefit, and even possibly contribute to flood mitigation. At present, no guidance or policy exists to advise whether allowing farmers to establish energy crop plantations in Flood Zone 3 could alter the existing flood risk. Consequently, if energy crops could provide a coupled benefit of renewable energy source and flood mitigation, this benefit is not being utilised. To help fill in this gap in knowledge, a short term project was carried out in order to investigate, using suitable hydraulic modelling, the possible scale of impact of growing energy crops on river and floodplain flows, flood depth and overall impact on flood risk locally as well as downstream. 2D hydraulic modelling using TUFLOW was deemed to be the most appropriate approach for these investigations. The methodology included gaining an understanding of the life cycle and planting regime of Miscanthus and Willow, review of current knowledge on the

Evaluation of Microphysics and Cumulus Schemes of WRF for Forecasting of Heavy Monsoon Rainfall over the Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful

2018-05-01

Accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall is crucial for the improvement of flood warning to prevent loss of life and property damage due to flash-flood-related landslides in the hilly region of Bangladesh. Forecasting heavy rainfall events is challenging where microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model play an important role. In this study, a comparison was made between observed and simulated rainfall using 19 different combinations of microphysics and cumulus schemes available in WRF over Bangladesh. Two severe rainfall events during 11th June 2007 and 24-27th June 2012, over the eastern hilly region of Bangladesh, were selected for performance evaluation using a number of indicators. A combination of the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme with Tiedtke cumulus scheme is found as the most suitable scheme for reproducing those events. Another combination of the single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme with New Grell 3D cumulus schemes also showed reasonable performance in forecasting heavy rainfall over this region. The sensitivity analysis confirms that cumulus schemes play a greater role than microphysics schemes for reproducing the heavy rainfall events using WRF.

Investigation of the Representation of OLEs and Terrain Effects Within the Coastal Zone in the EDMF Parameterization Scheme: An Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-07

OLEs and Terrain Effects Within the Coastal Zone in the EDMF Parameterization Scheme: An Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar Perspective Annual Report Under...UPP related investigations that will be carried out in Year 3. RELATED PROJECTS ONR contract to study the utilization of Doppler wind lidar (DWL...MATERHORN2012) Paper presented at the Coherent Laser Radar Conference, June 2013 Airborne DWL investigations of flow over complex terrain (MATERHORN

Capture zones for simple aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

McElwee, Carl D.

1991-01-01

Capture zones showing the area influenced by a well within a certain time are useful for both aquifer protection and cleanup. If hydrodynamic dispersion is neglected, a deterministic curve defines the capture zone. Analytical expressions for the capture zones can be derived for simple aquifers. However, the capture zone equations are transcendental and cannot be explicitly solved for the coordinates of the capture zone boundary. Fortunately, an iterative scheme allows the solution to proceed quickly and efficiently even on a modest personal computer. Three forms of the analytical solution must be used in an iterative scheme to cover the entire region of interest, after the extreme values of the x coordinate are determined by an iterative solution. The resulting solution is a discrete one, and usually 100-1000 intervals along the x-axis are necessary for a smooth definition of the capture zone. The presented program is written in FORTRAN and has been used in a variety of computing environments. No graphics capability is included with the program; it is assumed the user has access to a commercial package. The superposition of capture zones for multiple wells is expected to be satisfactory if the spacing is not too close. Because this program deals with simple aquifers, the results rarely will be the final word in a real application.

Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

2017-12-01

Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

Classification of mechanisms, climatic context, areal scaling, and synchronization of floods: the hydroclimatology of floods in the Upper Paraná River basin, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Lall, Upmanu

2017-12-01

Floods are the main natural disaster in Brazil, causing substantial economic damage and loss of life. Studies suggest that some extreme floods result from a causal climate chain. Exceptional rain and floods are determined by large-scale anomalies and persistent patterns in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which influence the magnitude, extent, and duration of these extremes. Moreover, floods can result from different generating mechanisms. These factors contradict the assumptions of homogeneity, and often stationarity, in flood frequency analysis. Here we outline a methodological framework based on clustering using self-organizing maps (SOMs) that allows the linkage of large-scale processes to local-scale observations. The methodology is applied to flood data from several sites in the flood-prone Upper Paraná River basin (UPRB) in southern Brazil. The SOM clustering approach is employed to classify the 6-day rainfall field over the UPRB into four categories, which are then used to classify floods into four types based on the spatiotemporal dynamics of the rainfall field prior to the observed flood events. An analysis of the vertically integrated moisture fluxes, vorticity, and high-level atmospheric circulation revealed that these four clusters are related to known tropical and extratropical processes, including the South American low-level jet (SALLJ); extratropical cyclones; and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Persistent anomalies in the sea surface temperature fields in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are also found to be associated with these processes. Floods associated with each cluster present different patterns in terms of frequency, magnitude, spatial variability, scaling, and synchronization of events across the sites and subbasins. These insights suggest new directions for flood risk assessment, forecasting, and management.

Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2015-04-01

Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

77 FR 71807 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-04

... 170931 areas of McLean Matt Sorenson, Building and Zoning team.com/starr/LOMR/ County (11-05- Chairman... flood insurance premium rates for new buildings and the contents of those buildings. For rating purposes.... Boulevard, Boise, ID team.com/starr/LOMR/ Biester, Mayor, 83702. Pages/RegionX.aspx. City of Boise, 150...

Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

Tropical stormwater floods: a sustainable solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinie, Jack; Bade, Francois; Nagau, Jimmy; Nuiro, Paul

2017-04-01

Stormwater management is one of the most difficult problem of urban and suburban area. The urban runoff volume related to rain intensity and surfaces properties can lead to flood. Thereby, urban flooding creates considerable infrastructure problem, economics and human damages. In tropical countries, burgeoning human population coupled with unplanned urbanization altered the natural drainage. Consequently, classical intense rain around 100 cm/h produces frequent street flooding. In our case, we study the management of intense tropical rain, by using a network of individual rain storage tanks. The study area is economical and industrial zone installed in a coastal plain , with seventy per cent of impermeable surface (roads, parking lots, building roof, …) and thirty per cent of wetland (mangrove, …). Our solution is to delay the routes and parking lots runoff to the roof one. We propose sustainable individual water storage and a real time dynamical management, which permit to control the roof water arrival in the stormwater culvert. During the remaining time, the stored rainwater can be used for domestic activities instead of the use of drinking water.

Using a Novel Wireless-Networked Decentralized Control Scheme under Unpredictable Environmental Conditions

PubMed Central

Chang, Chung-Liang; Huang, Yi-Ming; Hong, Guo-Fong

2015-01-01

The direction of sunshine or the installation sites of environmental control facilities in the greenhouse result in different temperature and humidity levels in the various zones of the greenhouse, and thus, the production quality of crop is inconsistent. This study proposed a wireless-networked decentralized fuzzy control scheme to regulate the environmental parameters of various culture zones within a greenhouse. The proposed scheme can create different environmental conditions for cultivating different crops in various zones and achieve diversification or standardization of crop production. A star-type wireless sensor network is utilized to communicate with each sensing node, actuator node, and control node in various zones within the greenhouse. The fuzzy rule-based inference system is used to regulate the environmental parameters for temperature and humidity based on real-time data of plant growth response provided by a growth stage selector. The growth stage selector defines the control ranges of temperature and humidity of the various culture zones according to the leaf area of the plant, the number of leaves, and the cumulative amount of light. The experimental results show that the proposed scheme is stable and robust and provides basis for future greenhouse applications. PMID:26569264

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression equations, which allow predictions of n-day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n-day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n-day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

2016-04-01

There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water

Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip J.

2014-04-01

Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. So far, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socio-economic development. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

2015-12-01

A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

The future of flood insurance in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horn, Diane

2013-04-01

Approximately one in seven properties in the UK (3.6 million homes and businesses) are at risk of flooding. The Adaptation Sub-Committee of the UK Committee on Climate Change reported in 2012 that development on the floodplain grew at a faster rate than elsewhere in England over the past ten years, with one in five properties in the floodplain in areas of significant risk. They concluded that current levels of investment will not keep pace with the increasing risk, noting that without additional action, climate change could almost double the number of properties at significant risk by 2035. Flood insurance can contribute to risk reduction by using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas, or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. The UK insurance market currently offers flood cover as a standard feature of domestic and small business policies, with central government providing physical protection backed up by financial protection provided by the insurance industry. This approach is unusual in not passing all or part of the flood risk to government schemes. At present, flood insurance in the UK is conducted under a series of informal agreements established between the insurance industry and the Government known as the Statement of Principles. Members of the Association of British Insurers (ABI) currently agree to cover homes at risk of flooding in return for government commitment to manage flood risk. However, this arrangement is now under threat, as the insurance industry is increasingly reluctant to bear the financial burden of flooding alone. The current Statement of Principles ends on 30 June 2013 and will not be renewed. High-risk properties may be unable to obtain insurance after the Statement of Principles expires. Unusually, insurers are arguing against a free market solution, arguing that no country in the world provides universal flood cover without some form of government-led support

Impacts of sea-level rise on the Moroccan coastal zone: Quantifying coastal erosion and flooding in the Tangier Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Khouakhi, Abdou; Niang-Diop, Isabelle

2009-06-01

As part of a broad assessment of climate change impacts in Morocco, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of coastal zones to sea-level rise was conducted. Tangier Bay which is the most important socio-economic pole in Northern Morocco represents one of the cases studies. Using a GIS-based inundation analysis and an erosion modelling approach, the potential physical vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise was investigated, and the most vulnerable socio-economic sectors were assessed. Results indicate that 10% and 24% of the area will be at risk of flooding respectively for minimum (4 m) and maximum (11 m) inundation levels. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the coastal defences and the port, the urban area, tourist coastal infrastructures, the railway, and the industrial area. Shoreline erosion would affect nearly 20% and 45% of the total beach areas respectively in 2050 and 2100. Potential response strategies and adaptation options identified include: sand dune fixation, beach nourishment and building of seawalls to protect the urban and industrial areas of high value. It was also recommended that an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan for the region, including upgrading awareness, building regulation and urban growth planning should be the most appropriate tool to ensure a long-term sustainable development, while addressing the vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise.

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged UK Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giani, Giulia; Woods, Ross

2017-04-01

The standard regression-based method for estimating the median annual flood in ungauged UK catchments has a high standard error (95% confidence interval is +/- a factor of 2). This is also the dominant source of uncertainty in statistical estimates of the 100-year flood. Similarly large uncertainties have been reported elsewhere. These large uncertainties make it difficult to do reliable flood design estimates for ungauged catchments. If the uncertainty could be reduced, flood protection schemes could be made significantly more cost-effective. Here we report on attempts to develop a new practical method for flood estimation in ungauged UK catchments, by making more use of knowledge about rainfall-runoff processes. Building on recent research on the seasonality of flooding, we first classify more than 1000 UK catchments into groups according to the seasonality of extreme rainfall and floods, and infer possible causal mechanisms for floods (e.g. Berghuijs et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016). For each group we are developing simplified rainfall-runoff-routing relationships (e.g. Viglione et al, Journal of Hydrology, 2010) which can account for spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and flood processes, as well as channel network routing effects. An initial investigation by Viglione et al suggested that the relationship between rainfall amount and flood peak could be summarised through a dimensionless response number that represents the product of the event runoff coefficient and a measure of hydrograph peakedness. Our hypothesis is that this approach is widely applicable, and can be used as the basis for flood estimation. Using subdaily and daily rainfall-runoff data for more than 1000 catchments, we identify a subset of catchments in the west of the UK where floods are generated predominantly in winter through the coincidence of heavy rain and low soil moisture deficits. Floods in these catchments can reliably be simulated with simple rainfall

Evaluating influence of active tectonics on spatial distribution pattern of floods along eastern Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvakumar, R.; Ramasamy, SM.

2014-12-01

Flooding is a naturally recurrent phenomenon that causes severe damage to lives and property. Predictions on flood-prone zones are made based on intensity-duration of rainfall, carrying capacity of drainage, and natural or man-made obstructions. Particularly, the lower part of the drainage system and its adjacent geomorphic landforms like floodplains and deltaic plains are considered for analysis, but stagnation in parts of basins that are far away from major riverine systems is less unveiled. Similarly, uncharacteristic flooding in the upper and middle parts of drainage, especially in zones of an anomalous drainage pattern, is also least understood. Even though topographic differences are attributed for such anomalous spatial occurrence of floods, its genetic cause has to be identified for effective management practice. Added to structural and lithological variations, tectonic movements too impart micro-scale terrain undulations. Because active tectonic movements are slow-occurring, long-term geological processes, its resultant topographical variations and drainage anomalies are least correlated with floods. The recent floods of Tamil Nadu also exhibit a unique distribution pattern emphasizing the role of tectonics over it. Hence a detailed geoinformatics-based analysis was carried out to envisage the relationship between spatial distribution of flood and active tectonic elements such as regional arches and deeps, block faults, and graben and drainage anomalies such as deflected drainage, compressed meander, and eyed drainages. The analysis reveals that micro-scale topographic highs and lows imparted by active tectonic movements and its further induced drainage anomalies have substantially controlled the distribution pattern of flood.

Responses of black willow ( Salix nigra) cuttings to simulated herbivory and flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuwen; Martin, Lili T.; Pezeshki, S. Reza; Shields, F. Douglas

2005-09-01

Herbivory and flooding influence plant species composition and diversity in many wetland ecosystems. Black willow ( Salix nigra) naturally occurs in floodplains and riparian zones of the southeastern United States. Cuttings from this species are used as a bioengineering tool for streambank stabilization and habitat rehabilitation. The present study was conducted to evaluate the photosynthetic and growth responses of black willow to simulated herbivory and flooding. Potted cuttings were subjected to three levels of single-event herbivory: no herbivory (control), light herbivory, and heavy herbivory; and three levels of flooding conditions: no flooding (control), continuous flooding, and periodic flooding. Results indicated that elevated stomatal conductance partially contributed to the increased net photosynthesis noted under both levels of herbivory on day 30. However, chlorophyll content was not responsible for the observed compensatory photosynthesis. Cuttings subjected to heavy herbivory accumulated the lowest biomass even though they had the highest height growth by the conclusion of the experiment. In addition, a reduction in root/shoot ratio was noted for plants subjected to continuous flooding with no herbivory. However, continuously flooded, lightly clipped plants allocated more resources to roots than shoots. This study provides evidence that it is feasible to use black willow for habitat rehabilitation along highly eroded streambanks where both flooding and herbivory are present.

An Efficient Method for Detecting Misbehaving Zone Manager in MANET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafsanjani, Marjan Kuchaki; Pakzad, Farzaneh; Asadinia, Sanaz

In recent years, one of the wireless technologies increased tremendously is mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) in which mobile nodes organize themselves without the help of any predefined infrastructure. MANETs are highly vulnerable to attack due to the open medium, dynamically changing network topology, cooperative algorithms, lack of centralized monitoring, management point and lack of a clear defense line. In this paper, we report our progress in developing intrusion detection (ID) capabilities for MANET. In our proposed scheme, the network with distributed hierarchical architecture is partitioned into zones, so that in each of them there is one zone manager. The zone manager is responsible for monitoring the cluster heads in its zone and cluster heads are in charge of monitoring their members. However, the most important problem is how the trustworthiness of the zone manager can be recognized. So, we propose a scheme in which "honest neighbors" of zone manager specify the validation of their zone manager. These honest neighbors prevent false accusations and also allow manager if it is wrongly misbehaving. However, if the manger repeats its misbehavior, then it will lose its management degree. Therefore, our scheme will be improved intrusion detection and also provide a more reliable network.

Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Himmelsbach, I.; Glaser, R.; Schoenbein, J.; Riemann, D.; Martin, B.

2015-10-01

This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant - and probably at last annoying - reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side - an interesting fact - especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

A software tool for rapid flood inundation mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, James; Verdin, Kristine; Mathis, Melissa L.; Magadzire, Tamuka; Kabuchanga, Eric; Woodbury, Mark; Gadain, Hussein

2016-06-02

The GIS Flood Tool (GFT) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to provide a means for production of reconnaissance-level flood inundation mapping for data-sparse and resource-limited areas of the world. The GFT has also attracted interest as a tool for rapid assessment flood inundation mapping for the Flood Inundation Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The GFT can fill an important gap for communities that lack flood inundation mapping by providing a first-estimate of inundation zones, pending availability of resources to complete an engineering study. The tool can also help identify priority areas for application of scarce flood inundation mapping resources. The technical basis of the GFT is an application of the Manning equation for steady flow in an open channel, operating on specially processed digital elevation data. The GFT is implemented as a software extension in ArcGIS. Output maps from the GFT were validated at 11 sites with inundation maps produced previously by the Flood Inundation Mapping Program using standard one-dimensional hydraulic modeling techniques. In 80 percent of the cases, the GFT inundation patterns matched 75 percent or more of the one-dimensional hydraulic model inundation patterns. Lower rates of pattern agreement were seen at sites with low relief and subtle surface water divides. Although the GFT is simple to use, it should be applied with the oversight or review of a qualified hydraulic engineer who understands the simplifying assumptions of the approach.

Analysis of potential flooding in the education Jatinangor based approach morphology, land cover, and geology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rifai, Achmad; Hadian, Sapari Dwi; Mufti, Iqbal Jabbari; Fathoni, Azmi Rizqi; Azy, Fikri Noor; Jihadi, Lutfan Harisan

2017-07-01

Jatinangor formerly an agricultural area dominated by rice field. Water in Jatinangor comes from a spring located in north Jatinangor or proximal region of Manglayang mountain to flow to the south and southwest Jatinangor up to Citarum River. Jatinangor plain that was once almost all the rice fields, but now become a land settlement that grew very rapidly since its founding colleges. Flow and puddle were originally be used for agricultural land, but now turned into a disaster risks for humans. The research method using qualitative methods with the weighing factor, scoring, and overlay maps. The cause of the flood is distinguished into two: the first is the natural factors such as the condition of landform, lithology, river flow patterns, and annual rainfall. The second is non-natural factors such as land cover of settlement, irrigation, and land use. The amount of flood risks using probability Gilbert White frequency, magnitude and duration of existing events then correlated with these factors. Based on the results of the study, were divided into 3 zones Jatinangor disaster-prone (high, medium, and safe). High flood zone is located in the South Jatinangor which covers an area Cikeruh Village, Sayang Village, Cipacing village, Mekargalih village, Cintamulya village, west of Jatimukti village, and South Hegarmanah village, has a dominant causative factor is the use of solid land, poor drainage, lithology lacustrine conditions with low permeability, and flat topography. Medium flood zone was located in the central and western regions covering Cibeusi village, Cileles village, south of Cilayung village, Hegarmanah village and Padjadjaran Region, has a dominant causative factor is rather dense land use, lithology breccias and Tuffaceous Sand with moderate permeability, topography is moderately steep. Safe flood zone is located in the east Jatinangor covering Jatiroke village, Cisepur village, east Hegarmanah village, has a dominant factor in the form of a rather steep

Field-scale simulation of chemical flooding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saad, N.

1989-01-01

A three-dimensional compositional chemical flooding simulator (UTCHEM) has been improved. The new mathematical formulation, boundary conditions, and a description of the physicochemical models of the simulator are presented. This improved simulator has been used for the study of the low tension pilot project at the Big Muddy field near Casper, Wyoming. Both the tracer injection conducted prior to the injection of the chemical slug, and the chemical flooding stages of the pilot project, have been analyzed. Not only the oil recovery but also the tracers, polymer, alcohol and chloride histories have been successfully matched with field results. Simulation results indicatemore » that, for this fresh water reservoir, the salinity gradient during the preflush and the resulting calcium pickup by the surfactant slug played a major role in the success of the project. In addition, analysis of the effects of the crossflow on the performance of the pilot project indicates that, for the well spacing of the pilot, crossflow does not play as important a role as it might for a large-scale project. To improve the numerical efficiency of the simulator, a third order convective differencing scheme has been applied to the simulator. This method can be used with non-uniform mesh, and therefore is suited for simulation studies of large-scale multiwell heterogeneous reservoirs. Comparison of the results with one and two dimensional analytical solutions shows that this method is effective in eliminating numerical dispersion using relatively large grid blocks. Results of one, two and three-dimensional miscible water/tracer flow, water flooding, polymer flooding, and micellar-polymer flooding test problems, and results of grid orientation studies, are presented.« less

Mathematical modeling of polymer flooding using the unstructured Voronoi grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kireev, T. F.; Bulgakova, G. T.; Khatmullin, I. F.

2017-12-01

Effective recovery of unconventional oil reserves necessitates development of enhanced oil recovery techniques such as polymer flooding. The study investigated the model of polymer flooding with effects of adsorption and water salinity. The model takes into account six components that include elements of the classic black oil model. These components are polymer, salt, water, dead oil, dry gas and dissolved gas. Solution of the problem is obtained by finite volume method on unstructured Voronoi grid using fully implicit scheme and the Newton’s method. To compare several different grid configurations numerical simulation of polymer flooding is performed. The oil rates obtained by a hexagonal locally refined Voronoi grid are shown to be more accurate than the oil rates obtained by a rectangular grid with the same number of cells. The latter effect is caused by high solution accuracy near the wells due to the local grid refinement. Minimization of the grid orientation effect caused by the hexagonal pattern is also demonstrated. However, in the inter-well regions with large Voronoi cells flood front tends to flatten and the water breakthrough moment is smoothed.

Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2015-04-01

estuary downstream. Although the quantity of runoff increases slightly, the flooded areas downstream rises up significantly. After taking vulnerability map into account, the area with high risk of flooding where the decision makers should pay more attention on is at the downstream near the convergence of the river due to high vulnerability exposing to flood hazard. The anomaly of continuous high intensity of rainfall was the main cause of flooding. However, in respect of the information from casualties through the questionnaire, a lack of maintenance of the floodway was another factor exacerbating the impacts. The ambiguities of a sufficiency of drainage capacity and the water releasing from the dam are existent. This testimony affirms that societal interference is playing the major role in the degree of increasing losses from weather-climate extremes. The findings will be used for further study, especially for the proper land use planning and zoning which is lacking in many developing countries. Therefore, land use planning and adaptation might be part of a flood mitigation plan in conjunction with the structural measures.

Ste. Genevieve, Missouri Feasibility Report (Flood Control Study for Historic Ste. Genevieve - 80061). Volume 2. Appendices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

A greater seismic risk may be posed by two other zones: the *-."Southern Illinois - Wabash Zone and the New Madrid Zone. Earthquake ground motions...A-3 S 0I The study area is located in the Ozark Random Source Zone. This *seismotectonic zone is a region of moderate seismicity ( earthquake activity...40 inches, so that the tops of the casings are now 57 inches above the 1973 flood height. The new well casings’ elevations are approximately 395 feet

A Methodology to Define Flood Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourbier, J.

2012-04-01

Flood resilience has become an internationally used term with an ever-increasing number of entries on the Internet. The SMARTeST Project is looking at approaches to flood resilience through case studies at cities in various countries, including Washington D.C. in the United States. In light of U.S. experiences a methodology is being proposed by the author that is intended to meet ecologic, spatial, structural, social, disaster relief and flood risk aspects. It concludes that: "Flood resilience combines (1) spatial, (2) structural, (3) social, and (4) risk management levels of flood preparedness." Flood resilience should incorporate all four levels, but not necessarily with equal emphasis. Stakeholders can assign priorities within different flood resilience levels and the considerations they contain, dividing 100% emphasis into four levels. This evaluation would be applied to planned and completed projects, considering existing conditions, goals and concepts. We have long known that the "road to market" for the implementation of flood resilience is linked to capacity building of stakeholders. It is a multidisciplinary enterprise, involving the integration of all the above aspects into the decision-making process. Traditional flood management has largely been influenced by what in the UK has been called "Silo Thinking", involving constituent organizations that are responsible for different elements, and are interested only in their defined part of the system. This barrier to innovation also has been called the "entrapment effect". Flood resilience is being defined as (1) SPATIAL FLOOD RESILIENCE implying the management of land by floodplain zoning, urban greening and management to reduce storm runoff through depression storage and by practicing Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUD's), Best Management Practices (BMP's, or Low Impact Development (LID). Ecologic processes and cultural elements are included. (2) STRUCTURAL FLOOD RESILIENCE referring to permanent flood defense

15 CFR 921.3 - National Estuarine Research Reserve System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. 921.3 Section 921.3 Commerce and... biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. (a) National Estuarine Research Reserves are... classification scheme based on regional variations in the nation's coastal zone has been developed. The...

15 CFR 921.3 - National Estuarine Research Reserve System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. 921.3 Section 921.3 Commerce and... biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. (a) National Estuarine Research Reserves are... classification scheme based on regional variations in the nation's coastal zone has been developed. The...

15 CFR 921.3 - National Estuarine Research Reserve System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. 921.3 Section 921.3 Commerce and... biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. (a) National Estuarine Research Reserves are... classification scheme based on regional variations in the nation's coastal zone has been developed. The...

15 CFR 921.3 - National Estuarine Research Reserve System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. 921.3 Section 921.3 Commerce and... biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. (a) National Estuarine Research Reserves are... classification scheme based on regional variations in the nation's coastal zone has been developed. The...

15 CFR 921.3 - National Estuarine Research Reserve System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... System biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. 921.3 Section 921.3 Commerce and... biogeographic classification scheme and estuarine typologies. (a) National Estuarine Research Reserves are... classification scheme based on regional variations in the nation's coastal zone has been developed. The...

Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

2017-12-01

The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

Environment Agency England flood warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

2015-04-01

Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

PHYSIOLOGICAL EVALUATION OF A FREE-FLOODING DIVER HEAT REPLACEMENT GARMENT.

DTIC Science & Technology

The general capabilities of a free-flooding heat replacement garment in maintaining thermal comfort in 40F water, at both surface and deep diving...recorded. Suit inlet temperatures which produce a subjective response of thermal comfort by the diver (Comfort Zone Inlet Temperature) at various flow

Optimal house elevation for reducing flood-related losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard

2017-05-01

FEMA recommends that houses in coastal flood zones be elevated to at least 1 foot above the base flood elevation (BFE). However, this guideline is not specific and ignores characteristics of houses that affect their vulnerability. An economically optimal elevation level (OEL) is proposed that minimizes the combined cost of elevation and cumulative insurance premiums over the lifespan of the house. As an illustration, analysis is performed for various coastal houses in Ortley Beach, NJ. Compared with the strategy of raising houses to 1 foot above BFE, the strategy of raising houses to their OELs is much more economical for the homeowners. Elevating to the OELs also significantly reduces government spending on subsidizing low-income homeowners through, for example, a voucher program, to mitigate flood risk. These results suggest that policy makers should consider vulnerability factors in developing risk-reduction strategies. FEMA may recommend OELs to homeowners based on their flood hazards as well as house characteristics or at least providing more information and tools to homeowners to assist them in making more economical decisions. The OEL strategy can also be coupled with a voucher program to make the program more cost-effective.

Flood Insurance in Canada: Implications for Flood Management and Residential Vulnerability to Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oulahen, Greg

2015-03-01

Insurance coverage of damage caused by overland flooding is currently not available to Canadian homeowners. As flood disaster losses and water damage claims both trend upward, insurers in Canada are considering offering residential flood coverage in order to properly underwrite the risk and extend their business. If private flood insurance is introduced in Canada, it will have implications for the current regime of public flood management and for residential vulnerability to flood hazards. This paper engages many of the competing issues surrounding the privatization of flood risk by addressing questions about whether flood insurance can be an effective tool in limiting exposure to the hazard and how it would exacerbate already unequal vulnerability. A case study investigates willingness to pay for flood insurance among residents in Metro Vancouver and how attitudes about insurance relate to other factors that determine residential vulnerability to flood hazards. Findings indicate that demand for flood insurance is part of a complex, dialectical set of determinants of vulnerability.

Influence of hydrological, biogeochemical and temperature transients on subsurface carbon fluxes in a flood plain environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arora, Bhavna; Spycher, Nicolas F.; Steefel, Carl I.

2016-02-01

Flood plains play a potentially important role in the global carbon cycle. The accumulation of organic matter in flood plains often induces the formation of chemically reduced groundwater and sediments along riverbanks. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the cumulative impact of such reduced zones, water table fluctuations, and temperature gradients on subsurface carbon fluxes in a flood plain at Rifle, Colorado located along the Colorado River. 2-D coupled variably-saturated, non-isothermal flow and biogeochemical reactive transport modeling was applied to improve our understanding of the abiotic and microbially mediated reactions controlling carbon dynamics at the Rifle site. Modelmore » simulations considering only abiotic reactions (thus ignoring microbial reactions) underestimated CO2 partial pressures observed in the unsaturated zone and severely underestimated inorganic (and overestimated organic) carbon fluxes to the river compared to simulations with biotic pathways. Both model simulations and field observations highlighted the need to include microbial contributions from chemolithoautotrophic processes (e.g., Fe?2 and S-2 oxidation) to match locally-observed high CO2 concentrations above reduced zones. Observed seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations in the unsaturated zone could not be reproduced without incorporating temperature gradients in the simulations. Incorporating temperature fluctuations resulted in an increase in the annual groundwater carbon fluxes to the river by 170 % to 3.3 g m-2 d-1, while including water table variations resulted in an overall decrease in the simulated fluxes. We conclude that spatial microbial and redox zonation as well as temporal fluctuations of temperature and water table depth contribute significantly to subsurface carbon fluxes in flood plains and need to be represented appropriately in model simulations.« less

Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

2015-04-01

The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model

Loading of the San Andreas fault by flood-induced rupture of faults beneath the Salton Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brothers, Daniel; Kilb, Debi; Luttrell, Karen; Driscoll, Neal W.; Kent, Graham

2011-01-01

The southern San Andreas fault has not experienced a large earthquake for approximately 300 years, yet the previous five earthquakes occurred at ~180-year intervals. Large strike-slip faults are often segmented by lateral stepover zones. Movement on smaller faults within a stepover zone could perturb the main fault segments and potentially trigger a large earthquake. The southern San Andreas fault terminates in an extensional stepover zone beneath the Salton Sea—a lake that has experienced periodic flooding and desiccation since the late Holocene. Here we reconstruct the magnitude and timing of fault activity beneath the Salton Sea over several earthquake cycles. We observe coincident timing between flooding events, stepover fault displacement and ruptures on the San Andreas fault. Using Coulomb stress models, we show that the combined effect of lake loading, stepover fault movement and increased pore pressure could increase stress on the southern San Andreas fault to levels sufficient to induce failure. We conclude that rupture of the stepover faults, caused by periodic flooding of the palaeo-Salton Sea and by tectonic forcing, had the potential to trigger earthquake rupture on the southern San Andreas fault. Extensional stepover zones are highly susceptible to rapid stress loading and thus the Salton Sea may be a nucleation point for large ruptures on the southern San Andreas fault.

Synoptical situations and meteorological conditions associated to floods in the mouth of rivers in the European part of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveeva, Tatiana; Gushchina, Daria

2013-04-01

The synoptical situations associated to the various type of floods in the mouth of rivers in European part of Russia are described. The storm surges, water flows and ice-jams are considered for Baltic, Barents sea, White sea, Azov sea, Black sea and Caspian sea regions. It is shown that the specific types of flood may be associated to various synoptical situations. Therefore it is unlikely to introduce the classification of synoptical regimes resulting in specific type of floods. However for each zone under consideration and for each specific flood type it is possible to determine the potential predictors of inundation: i.e. meteorological parameters which are characteristics of all cases of specific flood. There are: • for storm surges - long term wind forcing resulting in seiches in the sea, strong wind speed (the threshold varies in dependence on region), the wind direction orthogonal to the flow of river and strong baric gradient; • for water flows - the abundant precipitation, usually associate with the intensive frontal zone, the sudden change of air temperature resulting in snow melting in spring time; • for ice-jams - the strong temperature gradient extended in north-south direction resulting in negative temperature in the river mouth and positive temperature in the other basin. The probability of occurrence of predictors mentioned above was estimated for modern climate and global warming conditions using the outputs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. It is shown that the occurrence of intensive frontal zone and rainfall in the South of Russia will increase (decrease) in summer (winter) under warmer climate conditions which may contribute to the increase of water flows in this region. Maximum of floods occurs during the warm period, we can conclude that global warming increases the risk of floods in Black Sea coast.

Requirements for a next generation global flood inundation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.

2016-12-01

In this paper we review the current status of global hydrodynamic models for flood inundation prediction and highlight recent successes and current limitations. Building on this analysis we then go on to consider what is required to develop the next generation of such schemes and show that to achieve this a number of fundamental science problems will need to be overcome. New data sets and new types of analysis will be required, and we show that these will only partially be met by currently planned satellite missions and data collection initiatives. A particular example is the quality of available global Digital Elevation data. The current best data set for flood modelling, SRTM, is only available at a relatively modest 30m resolution, contains pixel-to-pixel noise of 6m and is corrupted by surface artefacts. Creative processing techniques have sought to address these issues with some success, but fundamentally the quality of the available global terrain data limits flood modelling and needs to be overcome. Similar arguments can be made for many other elements of global hydrodynamic models including their bathymetry data, boundary conditions, flood defence information and model validation data. We therefore systematically review each component of global flood models and document whether planned new technology will solve current limitations and, if not, what exactly will be required to do so.

Potential flood hazard assessment by integration of ALOS PALSAR and ASTER GDEM: a case study for the Hoa Chau commune, Hoa Vang district, in central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huong, Do Thi Viet; Nagasawa, Ryota

2014-01-01

The potential flood hazard was assessed for the Hoa Chau commune in central Vietnam in order to identify the high flood hazard zones for the decision makers who will execute future rural planning. A new approach for deriving the potential flood hazard based on integration of inundation and flow direction maps is described. Areas inundated in the historical flood event of 2007 were extracted from Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) phased array L-band synthetic aperture data radar (PALSAR) images, while flow direction characteristics were derived from the ASTER GDEM to extract the depressed surfaces. Past flood experience and the flow direction were then integrated to analyze and rank the potential flood hazard zones. The land use/cover map extracted from LANDSAT TM and flood depth point records from field surveys were utilized to check the possibility of susceptible inundated areas, extracting data from ALOS PALSAR and ranking the potential flood hazard. The estimation of potential flood hazard areas revealed that 17.43% and 17.36% of Hoa Chau had high and medium potential flood hazards, respectively. The flow direction and ALOS PALSAR data were effectively integrated for determining the potential flood hazard when hydrological and meteorological data were inadequate and remote sensing images taken during flood times were not available or were insufficient.

Aftermath of Venezuelan flood disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

One month after several rounds of devastating floods and mudslides waterlogged parts of Venezuela in December and January, the country and government are trying to come to grips with the damage and begin reconstruction efforts. They are also trying to limit potential health risks that can arise following natural disasters. Epidemics, however, rarely occur following a disaster, according to Jean-Luc Poncelet, a doctor with the Pan American Health Organization. Between 25,000 and 50,000 people in Venezuela were killed, and about 150,000 displaced, according to local and international aid authorities. In addition,Venezuelan national authorities have declared part of the Port of La Guaira as a dangerous chemical zone because of ruptured containers of dangerous chemicals, hundreds of kilometers of the Caribbean coast have been closed to fishing and swimming because of contaminated runoff from the floods, roads remain blocked, and the lack of potable water is a key concern.

Base (100-year) flood elevations for selected sites in Livingston County, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Richards, Joseph M.

2002-01-01

The primary criteria for community participation in the National Flood Insurance Program is the adoption and enforcement of floodplain management requirements that minimize the potential for flood damages to existing and proposed development in flood-hazard areas. This report provides base flood elevations (BFE) for a 100-year recurrence-interval flood for use in the management and regulation of 18 flood-hazard areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as approximate Zone A areas in Livingston County, Missouri. The one-dimensional surface-water flow models HEC-RAS and Water-Surface PROfile (WSPRO) were used to compute base (100-year) flood elevations for 18 Zone A sites. The HEC-RAS model was used at BFE sites 1 to 6, 9, 10, and 15 to 18. The WSPRO model was used at BFE sites 7, 8, and 11 to 14. The 18 sites are all located in Livingston County, Missouri, at U.S., State, or County road crossings, and the base flood elevation was determined at the upstream side of each crossing. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 1, 2, and 3 on Shoal Creek at Dawn and Shoal Creek Drainage Ditch near Dawn are 701.0, 701.0, and 696.5 feet, respectively. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 4 and 5 on Indian Branch near Sampsel and a tributary to Indian Branch near Sampsel are 711.7 and 755.4 feet, respectively. Site BFE 6 is located on Honey Creek near Farmersville and the base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 730.8 feet. One site (BFE 7) is located on No Creek near Farmersville. The base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 731.3 feet. Site BFE 8 is located on Crooked Creek near Chillicothe and the base (100-year) elevation is 716.4 feet. One site (BFE 9) is located on a tributary to Coon Creek at Chillicothe. The base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 734.9 feet. Two sites (BFE 10 and 11) are located on Blackwell Branch at Chillicothe. The base (100-year) flood elevation for BFE 10 is 738.9 feet and for BFE 11 is 701

1D and 2D urban dam-break flood modelling in Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozdemir, Hasan; Neal, Jeffrey; Bates, Paul; Döker, Fatih

2014-05-01

Urban flood events are increasing in frequency and severity as a consequence of several factors such as reduced infiltration capacities due to continued watershed development, increased construction in flood prone areas due to population growth, the possible amplification of rainfall intensity due to climate change, sea level rise which threatens coastal development, and poorly engineered flood control infrastructure (Gallegos et al., 2009). These factors will contribute to increased urban flood risk in the future, and as a result improved modelling of urban flooding according to different causative factor has been identified as a research priority (Gallegos et al., 2009; Ozdemir et al. 2013). The flooding disaster caused by dam failures is always a threat against lives and properties especially in urban environments. Therefore, the prediction of dynamics of dam-break flows plays a vital role in the forecast and evaluation of flooding disasters, and is of long-standing interest for researchers. Flooding occurred on the Ayamama River (Istanbul-Turkey) due to high intensity rainfall and dam-breaching of Ata Pond in 9th September 2009. The settlements, industrial areas and transportation system on the floodplain of the Ayamama River were inundated. Therefore, 32 people were dead and millions of Euros economic loses were occurred. The aim of this study is 1 and 2-Dimensional flood modelling of the Ata Pond breaching using HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-Roe models and comparison of the model results using the real flood extent. The HEC-RAS model solves the full 1-D Saint Venant equations for unsteady open channel flow whereas LISFLOOD-Roe is the 2-D shallow water model which calculates the flow according to the complete Saint Venant formulation (Villanueva and Wright, 2006; Neal et al., 2011). The model consists a shock capturing Godunov-type scheme based on the Roe Riemann solver (Roe, 1981). 3 m high resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM), natural characteristics of the pond

Torrential floods and town and country planning in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ristić, R.; Kostadinov, S.; Abolmasov, B.; Dragićević, S.; Trivan, G.; Radić, B.; Trifunović, M.; Radosavljević, Z.

2012-01-01

Torrential floods are the most frequent natural catastrophic events in Serbia, causing the loss of human lives and huge material damage, both in urban and rural areas. The analysis of the intra-annual distribution of maximal discharges aided in noticing that torrential floods have a seasonal character. The erosion and torrent control works (ETCWs) in Serbia began at the end of the 19th century. Effective protection from torrential floods encompasses biotechnical works on the slopes in the watershed and technical works on the torrent beds, within a precisely defined administrative and spatial framework in order to achieve maximal safety for people and their property. Cooperation to overcome the conflicts between the sectors of the water resources management, forestry, agriculture, energetics, environmental protection and local economic development groups is indispensable at the following levels: policy, spatial planning, practice, investments and education. The lowest and most effective level is through the Plans for Announcement of Erosive Regions (PAERs) and the Plans for Protection from Torrential Floods (PPTFs), with Hazard Zones (HZs) and Threatened Areas (TAs) mapping on the basis of the hydrologic, hydraulic and spatial analysis of the factors that are important for the formation of torrential floods. Solutions defined through PAERs and PPTFs have to be integrated into Spatial Plans at local and regional levels.

A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.-H.; Li, N.; Wu, L.-C.; Hu, A.-J.

2013-07-01

The vulnerability to flood disaster is addressed by a number of studies. It is of great importance to analyze the vulnerability of different regions and various periods to enable the government to make policies for distributing relief funds and help the regions to improve their capabilities against disasters, yet a recognized paradigm for such studies seems missing. Vulnerability is defined and evaluated through either physical or economic-ecological perspectives depending on the field of the researcher concerned. The vulnerability, however, is the core of both systems as it entails systematic descriptions of flood severities or disaster management units. The research mentioned often has a development perspective, and in this article we decompose the overall flood system into several factors: disaster driver, disaster environment, disaster bearer, and disaster intensity, and take the interaction mechanism among all factors as an indispensable function. The conditions of flood disaster components are demonstrated with disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity, respectively. The flood system vulnerability is expressed as vulnerability = f(risk, stability, sensitivity). Based on the theory, data envelopment analysis method (DEA) is used to detail the relative vulnerability's spatiotemporal variation of a flood disaster system and its components in the Dongting Lake region. The study finds that although a flood disaster system's relative vulnerability is closely associated with its components' conditions, the flood system and its components have a different vulnerability level. The overall vulnerability is not the aggregation of its components' vulnerability. On a spatial scale, zones central and adjacent to Dongting Lake and/or river zones are characterized with very high vulnerability. Zones with low and very low vulnerability are mainly distributed in the periphery of the Dongting Lake region. On a temporal

Nested 1D-2D approach for urban surface flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murla, Damian; Willems, Patrick

2015-04-01

Floods in urban areas as a consequence of sewer capacity exceedance receive increased attention because of trends in urbanization (increased population density and impermeability of the surface) and climate change. Despite the strong recent developments in numerical modeling of water systems, urban surface flood modeling is still a major challenge. Whereas very advanced and accurate flood modeling systems are in place and operation by many river authorities in support of flood management along rivers, this is not yet the case in urban water management. Reasons include the small scale of the urban inundation processes, the need to have very high resolution topographical information available, and the huge computational demands. Urban drainage related inundation modeling requires a 1D full hydrodynamic model of the sewer network to be coupled with a 2D surface flood model. To reduce the computational times, 0D (flood cones), 1D/quasi-2D surface flood modeling approaches have been developed and applied in some case studies. In this research, a nested 1D/2D hydraulic model has been developed for an urban catchment at the city of Gent (Belgium), linking the underground sewer (minor system) with the overland surface (major system). For the overland surface flood modelling, comparison was made of 0D, 1D/quasi-2D and full 2D approaches. The approaches are advanced by considering nested 1D-2D approaches, including infiltration in the green city areas, and allowing the effects of surface storm water storage to be simulated. An optimal nested combination of three different mesh resolutions was identified; based on a compromise between precision and simulation time for further real-time flood forecasting, warning and control applications. Main streets as mesh zones together with buildings as void regions constitute one of these mesh resolution (3.75m2 - 15m2); they have been included since they channel most of the flood water from the manholes and they improve the accuracy of

Spatial Analysis of Land Subsidence and Flood Pattern Based on DInSAR Method in Sentinel Sar Imagery and Weighting Method in Geo-Hazard Parameters Combination in North Jakarta Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, Y.; Yuwono, B. D.; Ramadhanis, Z.

2018-02-01

The reclamation program carried out in most cities in North Jakarta is directly adjacent to the Jakarta Bay. Beside this program, the density of population and development center in North Jakarta office has increased the need for underground water excessively. As a result of these things, land subsidence in North Jakarta area is relatively high and so intense. The research methodology was developed based on the method of remote sensing and geographic information systems, expected to describe the spatial correlation between the land subsidence and flood phenomenon in North Jakarta. The DInSAR (Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) method with satellite image data Radar (SAR Sentinel 1A) for the years 2015 to 2016 acquisitions was used in this research. It is intended to obtain a pattern of land subsidence in North Jakarta and then combined with flood patterns. For the preparation of flood threat zoning pattern, this research has been modeling in spatial technique based on a weighted parameter of rainfall, elevation, flood zones and land use. In the final result, we have obtained a flood hazard zonation models then do the overlap against DInSAR processing results. As a result of the research, Geo-hazard modelling has a variety results as: 81% of flood threat zones consist of rural area, 12% consists of un-built areas and 7% consists of water areas. Furthermore, the correlation of land subsidence to flood risk zone is divided into three levels of suitability with 74% in high class, 22% in medium class and 4% in low class. For the result of spatial correlation area between land subsidence and flood risk zone are 77% detected in rural area, 17% detected in un-built area and 6% detected in a water area. Whereas the research product is the geo-hazard maps in North Jakarta as the basis of the spatial correlation analysis between the land subsidence and flooding phenomena.double point.

Operational flood control of a low-lying delta system using large time step Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xin; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-01-01

The safety of low-lying deltas is threatened not only by riverine flooding but by storm-induced coastal flooding as well. For the purpose of flood control, these deltas are mostly protected in a man-made environment, where dikes, dams and other adjustable infrastructures, such as gates, barriers and pumps are widely constructed. Instead of always reinforcing and heightening these structures, it is worth considering making the most of the existing infrastructure to reduce the damage and manage the delta in an operational and overall way. In this study, an advanced real-time control approach, Model Predictive Control, is proposed to operate these structures in the Dutch delta system (the Rhine-Meuse delta). The application covers non-linearity in the dynamic behavior of the water system and the structures. To deal with the non-linearity, a linearization scheme is applied which directly uses the gate height instead of the structure flow as the control variable. Given the fact that MPC needs to compute control actions in real-time, we address issues regarding computational time. A new large time step scheme is proposed in order to save computation time, in which different control variables can have different control time steps. Simulation experiments demonstrate that Model Predictive Control with the large time step setting is able to control a delta system better and much more efficiently than the conventional operational schemes.

Effects of HIFU induced cavitation on flooded lung parenchyma.

PubMed

Wolfram, Frank; Dietrich, Georg; Boltze, Carsten; Jenderka, Klaus Vitold; Lesser, Thomas Günther

2017-01-01

High intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) has gained clinical interest as a non-invasive local tumour therapy in many organs. In addition, it has been shown that lung cancer can be targeted by HIFU using One-Lung Flooding (OLF). OLF generates a gas free saline-lung compound in one lung wing and therefore acoustic access to central lung tumours. It can be assumed that lung parenchyma is exposed to ultrasound intensities in the pre-focal path and in cases of misguiding. If so, cavitation might be induced in the saline fraction of flooded lung and cause tissue damage. Therefore this study was aimed to determine the thresholds of HIFU induced cavitation and tissue erosion in flooded lung. Resected human lung lobes were flooded ex-vivo. HIFU (1,1 MHz) was targeted under sonographic guidance into flooded lung parenchyma. Cavitation events were counted using subharmonic passive cavitation detection (PCD). B-Mode imaging was used to detect cavitation and erosion sonographically. Tissue samples out of the focal zone were analysed histologically. In flooded lung, a PCD and a sonographic cavitation detection threshold of 625  Wcm - 2 ( p r  = 4, 3  MPa ) and 3.600  Wcm - 2 ( p r  = 8, 3  MPa ) was found. Cavitation in flooded lung appears as blurred hyperechoic focal region, which enhances echogenity with insonation time. Lung parenchyma erosion was detected at intensities above 7.200  Wcm - 2 ( p r  = 10, 9  MPa ). Cavitation occurs in flooded lung parenchyma, which can be detected passively and by B-Mode imaging. Focal intensities required for lung tumour ablation are below levels where erosive events occur. Therefore focal cavitation events can be monitored and potential risk from tissue erosion in flooded lung avoided.

44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... quality control departments, or both, and independent Certified Public Accountant (CPA) firms. This Plan... individual State Insurance Departments, NAIC Zone examinations, and independent CPA firms. (c) Standards... company must— (A) Have a biennial audit of the flood insurance financial statements conducted by a CPA...

44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... quality control departments, or both, and independent Certified Public Accountant (CPA) firms. This Plan... individual State Insurance Departments, NAIC Zone examinations, and independent CPA firms. (c) Standards... company must— (A) Have a biennial audit of the flood insurance financial statements conducted by a CPA...

Hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecasting constrained by remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Grimaldi, S.; Pauwels, V. R. N.; Walker, J. P.; Wright, A. J.

2017-12-01

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural disasters, resulting in many deaths and billions of dollars of damages each year. An indispensable tool to mitigate the effect of floods is to provide accurate and timely forecasts. An operational flood forecasting system typically consists of a hydrologic model, converting rainfall data into flood volumes entering the river system, and a hydraulic model, converting these flood volumes into water levels and flood extents. Such a system is prone to various sources of uncertainties from the initial conditions, meteorological forcing, topographic data, model parameters and model structure. To reduce those uncertainties, current forecasting systems are typically calibrated and/or updated using ground-based streamflow measurements, and such applications are limited to well-gauged areas. The recent increasing availability of spatially distributed remote sensing (RS) data offers new opportunities to improve flood forecasting skill. Based on an Australian case study, this presentation will discuss the use of 1) RS soil moisture to constrain a hydrologic model, and 2) RS flood extent and level to constrain a hydraulic model.The GRKAL hydrological model is calibrated through a joint calibration scheme using both ground-based streamflow and RS soil moisture observations. A lag-aware data assimilation approach is tested through a set of synthetic experiments to integrate RS soil moisture to constrain the streamflow forecasting in real-time.The hydraulic model is LISFLOOD-FP which solves the 2-dimensional inertial approximation of the Shallow Water Equations. Gauged water level time series and RS-derived flood extent and levels are used to apply a multi-objective calibration protocol. The effectiveness with which each data source or combination of data sources constrained the parameter space will be discussed.

Spatial gradients in stream power and the implications for lateral and downstream transport of material during the 2013 Floods in Colorado and 2011 Irene Floods in Vermont, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gartner, J. D.; Renshaw, C. E.; Magilligan, F. J.; Buraas, E. M.; Dethier, E.; Dade, W. B.

2014-12-01

Classic approaches to understand sediment transport and channel-hillslope coupling focus on magnitudes of forces at a point location or reach. Yet often overlooked are downstream gradients in forces along a river. Here we show a physical rationale supported by field evidence that downstream spatial gradients in sediment transport capacity affect lateral exchange of material in the form of landslides, bank failures and floodplain deposition. Taking advantage of the strong signals of near-channel deposition and erosion during the record-high 2011 Irene floods in Vermont and 2013 floods in Colorado, USA, we test if these spatial gradients can predict geomorphic response in flood events. Total stream power, an indicator of total sediment transport capacity, was mapped using GIS analysis along the Saxtons River (190 km2) and West Branch of White River (112 km2) in Vermont and Fourmile Creek (20 km2) and an unnamed creek on Mt Sanitas (7 km2) in Boulder, CO. These mountainous streams exhibit reach slopes of 0.5 to > 10%, with less steep reaches interspersed among steeper reaches. Near-channel erosion and deposition were quantified along 52 river km by pre/post satellite imagery, field surveys, and, when available, differencing of pre/post topography measured by aerial LiDAR. Zones of abundant mass wasting inputs—up to 11,000 m3 per km—were generally distinct from zones of abundant floodplain deposition—up to 30,000 m3 per km. Spatial patterns indicate that zones of abundant mass wasting into the channels align approximately with zones of down-flow increasing stream power. These reaches can convey material delivered from upstream plus additional lateral inputs of sediment. Conversely, reaches of abundant lateral flux out of the channel via near-channel deposition occur predominantly where mapped total stream power declines in the down-flow direction. These reaches appear unable to convey material supplied from upstream, which induces lateral deposition. The

Exploring the feasibility of private micro flood insurance provision in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Akter, Sonia; Brouwer, Roy; van Beukering, Pieter J H; French, Laura; Silver, Efrath; Choudhury, Saria; Aziz, Syeda Salina

2011-04-01

This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the feasibility of the provision of micro flood insurance as an effective tool for spreading disaster risks in developing countries and examines the role of the institutional-organisational framework in assisting the design and implementation of such a micro flood insurance market. In Bangladesh, a private insurance market for property damage and livelihood risk due to natural disasters does not exist. Private insurance companies are reluctant to embark on an evidently unprofitable venture. Testing two different institutional-organisational models, this research reveals that the administration costs of micro-insurance play an important part in determining the long-term viability of micro flood insurance schemes. A government-facilitated process to overcome the differences observed in this study between the nonprofit micro-credit providers and profit-oriented private insurance companies is needed, building on the particular competence each party brings to the development of a viable micro flood insurance market through a public-private partnership. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Spatial Scaling of Floods in Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plank, C.

2013-12-01

northern watersheds. However, the relative magnitudes of 100-year and other large floods are higher in the coastal plain rivers. In the transition zone between northern and southern watersheds, basins like the Potomac in the Mid-Atlantic region have similar scaling exponents as northern river basins, but relative flood magnitudes comparable to the southern coastal plain watersheds. These differences reflect variations in both geologic/geomorphic and climatic settings. Understanding these variations are important to appropriately using these relationships to improve flood risk models and analyses.

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

Natural hazards on alluvial fans: the debris flow and flash flood disaster of December 1999, Vargas state, Venezuela

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Matthew C.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Eaton, L.S.; Torres-Sierra, Heriberto; Sylva, Walter F.

2001-01-01

Large populations live on or near alluvial fans in locations such as Los Angeles, California, Salt Lake City, Utah, Denver, Colorado, and lesser known areas such as Sarno, Italy, and Vargas, Venezuela. Debris flows and flash floods occur episodically in these alluvial fan environments, and place many communities at high risk during intense and prolonged rainfall. In December 1999, rainstorms induced thousands of landslides along the Cordillera de la Costa, Vargas, Venezuela. Rainfall accumulation of 293 mm during the first 2 weeks of December was followed by an additional 911 mm of rainfall on December 14 through 16. Debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities resulting in a catastrophic death toll of as many as 30,000 people. Flash floods and debris flows caused severe property destruction on alluvial fans at the mouths of the coastal mountain drainage network. In time scales spanning thousands of years, the alluvial fans along this Caribbean coastline are dynamic zones of high geomorphic activity. Because most of the coastal zone in Vargas consists of steep mountain fronts that rise abruptly from the Caribbean Sea, the alluvial fans provide practically the only flat areas upon which to build. Rebuilding and reoccupation of these areas requires careful determination of hazard zones to avoid future loss of life and property. KEY TERMS: Debris flows, flash floods, alluvial fans, natural hazards, landslides, Venezuela

The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness, response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses.

PubMed

Chinh, Do Thi; Bubeck, Philip; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Kreibich, Heidi

2016-10-01

Floods frequently cause substantial economic and human losses, particularly in developing countries. For the development of sound flood risk management schemes that reduce flood consequences, detailed insights into the different components of the flood risk management cycle, such as preparedness, response, flood impact analyses and recovery, are needed. However, such detailed insights are often lacking: commonly, only (aggregated) data on direct flood damage are available. Other damage categories such as losses owing to the disruption of production processes are usually not considered, resulting in incomplete risk assessments and possibly inappropriate recommendations for risk management. In this paper, data from 858 face-to-face interviews among flood-prone households and small businesses in Can Tho city in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are presented to gain better insights into the damage caused by the 2011 flood event and its management by households and businesses. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Natural Flood Management Plus: Scaling Up Nature Based Solutions to Larger Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Nicholson, Alex; Adams, Russ

2017-04-01

It has been established that networks NFM features, such as ponds and wetlands, can have a significant effect on flood flow and pollution at local scales (less than 10km2). However, it is much less certain that NFM and NBS can impact at larger scales and protect larger cities. This is especially true for recent storms in the UK such as storm Desmond that caused devastation across the north of England. It is possible using observed rainfall and runoff data to estimate the amounts of storage that would be required to impact on extreme flood events. Here we will how a toolkit that will estimate the amount of storage that can be accrued through a dense networks of NFM features. The analysis suggest that the use of many hundreds of small NFM features can have a significant impact on peak flow, however we still require more storage in order to address extreme events and to satisfy flood engineers who may propose more traditional flood defences. We will also show case studies of larger NFM feature positioned on flood plains that can store significantly more flood flow. Examples designs of NFM plus feature will be shown. The storage aggregation tool will then show the degree to which storing large amounts of flood flow in NFM plus features can contribute to flood management and estimate the likely costs. Together smaller and larger NFM features if used together can produce significant flood storage and at a much lower cost than traditional schemes.

Influence of hydrological, biogeochemical and temperature transients on subsurface carbon fluxes in a flood plain environment

DOE PAGES

Arora, Bhavna; Spycher, Nicolas F.; Steefel, Carl I.; ...

2016-02-12

Flood plains play a potentially important role in the global carbon cycle. The accumulation of organic matter in flood plains often induces the formation of chemically reduced groundwater and sediments along riverbanks. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the cumulative impact of such reduced zones, water table fluctuations, and temperature gradients on subsurface carbon fluxes in a flood plain at Rifle, Colorado located along the Colorado River. 2-D coupled variably-saturated, non-isothermal flow and biogeochemical reactive transport modeling was applied to improve our understanding of the abiotic and microbially mediated reactions controlling carbon dynamics at the Rifle site. Modelmore » simulations considering only abiotic reactions (thus ignoring microbial reactions) underestimated CO 2 partial pressures observed in the unsaturated zone and severely underestimated inorganic (and overestimated organic) carbon fluxes to the river compared to simulations with biotic pathways. Both model simulations and field observations highlighted the need to include microbial contributions from chemolithoautotrophic processes (e.g., Fe +2 and S -2 oxidation) to match locally-observed high CO 2 concentrations above reduced zones. Observed seasonal variations in CO 2 concentrations in the unsaturated zone could not be reproduced without incorporating temperature gradients in the simulations. Incorporating temperature fluctuations resulted in an increase in the annual groundwater carbon fluxes to the river by 170 % to 3.3 g m -2 d -1, while including water table variations resulted in an overall decrease in the simulated fluxes. We thus conclude that spatial microbial and redox zonation as well as temporal fluctuations of temperature and water table depth contribute significantly to subsurface carbon fluxes in flood plains and need to be represented appropriately in model simulations.« less

A Review on Flood Events for Kelantan River Watershed in Malaysia for Last Decade (2001-2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminah Shakirah, J.; Sidek, L. M.; Hidayah, B.; Nazirul, M. Z.; Jajarmizadeh, M.; Ros, F. C.; Roseli, ZA

2016-03-01

Malaysia is located at tropical zone and high precipitation area that frequently hit by flood events when it is near monsoon season. This hydro hazard has been one of the main concerns for governmental and non-governmental sectors. High floods lead in financial damages and they are related with human’s life. Kelantan watershed is one of the challenging watersheds which mostly suffer from flood events and heavy rainfall events. Flood in Kelantan watershed is related with monetary misfortunes and lives. Clearly, flood have significant influence on various water sectors such water supply, agriculture, human health and ecosystems therefore study of this topic and presentation of available of any data and information can be a valuable baseline for upcoming research in vulnerable case studies. In this study, Kelantan watershed is selected because it is prone to flooding and urban areas classified as vulnerable districts. This overview is discussed on the last decade (2001-2010) floods events in Kelantan.

76 FR 38013 - Safety Zone; Big Sioux River From the Military Road Bridge North Sioux City to the Confluence of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-29

... rising flood water. Operation in this zone is restricted unless specifically authorized by the Captain of... rising flood water. The impacts on routine navigation are expected to be minimal. Small Entities Under... vessels from destruction, loss or injury due to the hazards associated with rising flood water. If you are...

Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

A comparative study of European insurance schemes for extreme weather risks and incentives for risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Hudson, Paul; de Ruig, Lars; Kuik, Onno; Botzen, Wouter

2017-04-01

This paper provides an analysis of the insurance schemes that cover extreme weather events in twelve different EU countries and the risk reduction incentives offered by these schemes. Economic impacts of extreme weather events in many regions in Europe and elsewhere are on the rise due to climate change and increasing exposure as driven by urban development. In an attempt to manage impacts from extreme weather events, natural disaster insurance schemes can provide incentives for taking measures that limit weather-related risks. Insurance companies can influence public risk management policies and risk-reducing behaviour of policyholders by "rewarding behaviour that reduces risks and potential damages" (Botzen and Van den Bergh, 2008, p. 417). Examples of insurance market systems that directly or indirectly aim to incentivize risk reduction with varying degrees of success are: the U.S. National Flood Insurance Programme; the French Catastrophes Naturelles system; and the U.K. Flood Re program which requires certain levels of protection standards for properties to be insurable. In our analysis, we distinguish between four different disaster types (i.e. coastal and fluvial floods, droughts and storms) and three different sectors (i.e. residential, commercial and agriculture). The selected case studies also provide a wide coverage of different insurance market structures, including public, private and public-private insurance provision, and different methods of coping with extreme loss events, such as re-insurance, governmental aid and catastrophe bonds. The analysis of existing mechanisms for risk reduction incentives provides recommendations about incentivizing adaptive behaviour, in order to assist policy makers and other stakeholders in designing more effective insurance schemes for extreme weather risks.

Low cost, multiscale and multi-sensor application for flooded area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, Daniele; Notti, Davide; Villa, Alfredo; Zucca, Francesco; Calò, Fabiana; Pepe, Antonio; Dutto, Furio; Pari, Paolo; Baldo, Marco; Allasia, Paolo

2018-05-01

Flood mapping and estimation of the maximum water depth are essential elements for the first damage evaluation, civil protection intervention planning and detection of areas where remediation is needed. In this work, we present and discuss a methodology for mapping and quantifying flood severity over floodplains. The proposed methodology considers a multiscale and multi-sensor approach using free or low-cost data and sensors. We applied this method to the November 2016 Piedmont (northwestern Italy) flood. We first mapped the flooded areas at the basin scale using free satellite data from low- to medium-high-resolution from both the SAR (Sentinel-1, COSMO-Skymed) and multispectral sensors (MODIS, Sentinel-2). Using very- and ultra-high-resolution images from the low-cost aerial platform and remotely piloted aerial system, we refined the flooded zone and detected the most damaged sector. The presented method considers both urbanised and non-urbanised areas. Nadiral images have several limitations, in particular in urbanised areas, where the use of terrestrial images solved this limitation. Very- and ultra-high-resolution images were processed with structure from motion (SfM) for the realisation of 3-D models. These data, combined with an available digital terrain model, allowed us to obtain maps of the flooded area, maximum high water area and damaged infrastructures.

Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

2015-04-01

In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

2017-05-01

The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from Twitter messages that mention locations of flooding. A deterministic flood map created for the December 2015 flood in the city of York (UK) showed good performance (F(2) = 0.69; a statistic ranging from 0 to 1, with 1 expressing a perfect fit with validation data). The probabilistic flood maps we created showed that, in the York case study, the uncertainty in flood extent was mainly induced by errors in the precise locations of flood observations as derived from Twitter data. Errors in the terrain elevation data or in the parameters of the applied algorithm contributed less to flood extent uncertainty. Although these maps tended to overestimate the actual probability of flooding, they gave a reasonable representation of flood extent uncertainty in the area. This study illustrates that inherently uncertain data from social media can be used to derive information about flooding.

Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

2012-04-01

Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

Two dimensional modelling of flood flows and suspended sediment transport: the case of Brenta River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alpaos, L.; Martini, P.; Carniello, L.

2003-04-01

The paper deals with numerical modelling of flood waves and suspended sediment in plain river basins. The two dimensional depth integrated momentum and continuity equations, modified to take into account of the bottom irregularities that strongly affect the hydrodynamic and the continuity in partially dry areas (for example, during the first stages of a plain flooding and in tidal flows), are solved with a standard Galerkin finite element method using a semi-implicit numerical scheme and considering the role both of the small channel network and the regulation dispositive on the flooding wave propagation. Transport of suspended sediment and bed evolution are coupled with the flood propagation through the convection-dispersion equation and the Exner's equation. Results of a real case study are presented in which the effects of extreme flood of Brenta River (Italy) are examinated. The flooded areas (urban and rural areas) are identified and a mitigation solution based on a diversion channel flowing into Venice Lagoon is proposed. We show that this solution strongly reduces the flood risk in the downstream areas and can provide an important sediment source to the Venice Lagoon. Finally, preliminary results of the sediment dispersion in the Venice Lagoon are presented.

Differentiation of debris-flow and flash-flood deposits: implications for paleoflood investigations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Jarrett, Robert D.; ,

1993-01-01

Debris flows and flash floods are common geomorphic processes in the Colorado Rocky Mountain Front Range and foothills. Usually, debris flows and flash floods are associated with excess summer rainfall or snowmelt, in areas were unconsolidated surficial deposits are relatively thick and slopes are steep. In the Front Range and foothills, flash flooding is limited to areas below about 2300m whereas, debris flow activity is common throughout the foothill and alpine zones and is not necessarily elevation limited. Because flash floods and debris flows transport large quantities of bouldery sediment, the resulting deposits appear somewhat similar even though such deposits were produced by different processes. Discharge estimates based on debris-flow deposits interpreted as flash-flood deposits have large errors because techniques for discharge retrodiction were developed for water floods with negligible sediment concentrations. Criteria for differentiating between debris-flow and flash-flood deposits are most useful for deposits that are fresh and well-exposed. However, with the passage of time, both debris-flow and flash-flood deposits become modified by the combined effects of weathering, colluviation, changes in surface morphology, and in some instances removal of interstitial sediment. As a result, some of the physical characteristics of the deposits become more alike. Criteria especially applicable to older deposits are needed. We differentiate flash-flood from debris-flow and other deposits using clast fabric measurements and other morphologic and sedimentologic techniques (e.g., deposit morphology, clast lithology, particle size and shape, geomorphic setting).

WRF model sensitivity to choice of parameterization: a study of the `York Flood 1999'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remesan, Renji; Bellerby, Tim; Holman, Ian; Frostick, Lynne

2015-10-01

Numerical weather modelling has gained considerable attention in the field of hydrology especially in un-gauged catchments and in conjunction with distributed models. As a consequence, the accuracy with which these models represent precipitation, sub-grid-scale processes and exceptional events has become of considerable concern to the hydrological community. This paper presents sensitivity analyses for the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model with respect to the choice of physical parameterization schemes (both cumulus parameterisation (CPSs) and microphysics parameterization schemes (MPSs)) used to represent the `1999 York Flood' event, which occurred over North Yorkshire, UK, 1st-14th March 1999. The study assessed four CPSs (Kain-Fritsch (KF2), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GD) and the old Kain-Fritsch (KF1)) and four MPSs (Kessler, Lin et al., WRF single-moment 3-class (WSM3) and WRF single-moment 5-class (WSM5)] with respect to their influence on modelled rainfall. The study suggests that the BMJ scheme may be a better cumulus parameterization choice for the study region, giving a consistently better performance than other three CPSs, though there are suggestions of underestimation. The WSM3 was identified as the best MPSs and a combined WSM3/BMJ model setup produced realistic estimates of precipitation quantities for this exceptional flood event. This study analysed spatial variability in WRF performance through categorical indices, including POD, FBI, FAR and CSI during York Flood 1999 under various model settings. Moreover, the WRF model was good at predicting high-intensity rare events over the Yorkshire region, suggesting it has potential for operational use.

Extent and frequency of floods on the Schuylkill River near Phoenixville and Pottstown, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busch, William F.; Shaw, Lewis C.

1973-01-01

Knowledge of the frequency and extent of flooding is an important requirement for the design of all works of man bordering or encroaching on flood plains. The proper design of bridges, culverts, dams, highways, levees, reservoirs, sewage-disposal systems, waterworks and all structures on the flood plains of streams requires careful consideration of flood hazards. -1- By use of relations presented in this report, the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Schuylkill River from Oaks to Pottstown. These flood data are presented so that regulatory agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U. S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain-inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plaininundation studies are a prerequisite to flood-plain management which may include a mixture of flood-control structures and/or land-use regulations. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the Comprehensive Plan for development of the Delaware River basin, of which the Schuylkill River is a part. Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rests with State, and local interests.

Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2016-10-01

The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. To date, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions, and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins and that these correlations can, or should, be used in national to continental scale risk assessment. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that currently observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socioeconomic development. The results demonstrate that accounting for tail dependencies leads to higher estimates of extreme losses than estimates based on the traditional assumption of independence between basins. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Investigating the scale-adaptivity of a shallow cumulus parameterization scheme with LES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brast, Maren; Schemann, Vera; Neggers, Roel

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the scale-adaptivity of a new parameterization scheme for shallow cumulus clouds in the gray zone. The Eddy-Diffusivity Multiple Mass-Flux (or ED(MF)n ) scheme is a bin-macrophysics scheme, in which subgrid transport is formulated in terms of discretized size densities. While scale-adaptivity in the ED-component is achieved using a pragmatic blending approach, the MF-component is filtered such that only the transport by plumes smaller than the grid size is maintained. For testing, ED(MF)n is implemented in a large-eddy simulation (LES) model, replacing the original subgrid-scheme for turbulent transport. LES thus plays the role of a non-hydrostatic testing ground, which can be run at different resolutions to study the behavior of the parameterization scheme in the boundary-layer gray zone. In this range convective cumulus clouds are partially resolved. We find that at high resolutions the clouds and the turbulent transport are predominantly resolved by the LES, and the transport represented by ED(MF)n is small. This partitioning changes towards coarser resolutions, with the representation of shallow cumulus clouds becoming exclusively carried by the ED(MF)n. The way the partitioning changes with grid-spacing matches the results of previous LES studies, suggesting some scale-adaptivity is captured. Sensitivity studies show that a scale-inadaptive ED component stays too active at high resolutions, and that the results are fairly insensitive to the number of transporting updrafts in the ED(MF)n scheme. Other assumptions in the scheme, such as the distribution of updrafts across sizes and the value of the area fraction covered by updrafts, are found to affect the location of the gray zone.

Floods - Multiple Languages

MedlinePlus

... Arabic (العربية) Expand Section Floods and Flash Flooding - English PDF Floods and Flash Flooding - العربية (Arabic) PDF ... Bosnian (bosanski) Expand Section Floods and Flash Flooding - English PDF Floods and Flash Flooding - bosanski (Bosnian) PDF ...

Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

Development of an establishment scheme for a DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiang; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhu, Jiawen; Shao, Pu

2016-07-01

Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics (e.g., global distribution, etc.), ignoring their roles in the population dynamics (e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.) of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics (such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems) and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types (PFTs) on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa.

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2011-08-15

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatialmore » scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.« less

Analysis and Comparison on the Flood Simulation in Typical Hilly & Semi-mountainous Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Qinghua; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Jiahong; Fu, Xiaoran; Zhang, Kun; Ma, Jun

2017-12-01

Water-logging and flood are both serious in hilly and semi-mountainous cities of China, but the related research is rare. Lincheng Economic Development Zone (EDZ) in Hebei Province as the typical city was selected and storm water management model (SWMM) was applied for flood simulation in this study. The regional model was constructed through calibrating and verifying the runoff coefficient of different flood processes. Different designed runoff processes in five-year, ten-year and twenty-year return periods in basic scenario and in the low impact development (LID) scenario, respectively, were simulated and compared. The result shows that: LID measures have effect on peak reduction in the study area, but the effectiveness is not significant; the effectiveness of lagging peak time is poor. These simulation results provide decision support for the rational construction of LID in the study area, and provide the references for regional rain flood management.

Inverse algorithms for 2D shallow water equations in presence of wet dry fronts: Application to flood plain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, J.; Couderc, F.; Dartus, D.; Larnier, K.; Madec, R.; Vila, J.-P.

2016-11-01

The 2D shallow water equations adequately model some geophysical flows with wet-dry fronts (e.g. flood plain or tidal flows); nevertheless deriving accurate, robust and conservative numerical schemes for dynamic wet-dry fronts over complex topographies remains a challenge. Furthermore for these flows, data are generally complex, multi-scale and uncertain. Robust variational inverse algorithms, providing sensitivity maps and data assimilation processes may contribute to breakthrough shallow wet-dry front dynamics modelling. The present study aims at deriving an accurate, positive and stable finite volume scheme in presence of dynamic wet-dry fronts, and some corresponding inverse computational algorithms (variational approach). The schemes and algorithms are assessed on classical and original benchmarks plus a real flood plain test case (Lèze river, France). Original sensitivity maps with respect to the (friction, topography) pair are performed and discussed. The identification of inflow discharges (time series) or friction coefficients (spatially distributed parameters) demonstrate the algorithms efficiency.

A comparative study of advanced shock-capturing schemes applied to Burgers' equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, H. Q.; Przekwas, A. J.

1992-01-01

A systematic evaluation is conducted of all extant numerical schemes for nonlinear scalar transport problems, and several advanced shock-capturing schemes are used to solve the nonlinear Burgers' equation in order to characterize their ability to resolve the sharp discontinuity, expansion zone, and propagation and collision features of shocks. For discontinuous functions, the Warming-Beam scheme generates preshock wiggles, while the Lax-Wendroff scheme generates postshock ones. Such limiters as the MUSCL or the superbee are more compressive than minimod or monotonic limiters. The performance of such TVD schemes as the upwind, the symmetric, and the Roe-Sweby, resemble each other.

Mercury net methylation in five tropical flood plain regions of Brazil: high in the root zone of floating macrophyte mats but low in surface sediments and flooded soils.

PubMed

Guimarães, J R; Meili, M; Hylander, L D; de Castro e Silva, E; Roulet, M; Mauro, J B; de Lemos, R

2000-10-16

In aquatic systems, bottom sediments have often been considered as the main methylmercury (MeHg) production site. In tropical floodplain areas, however, floating meadows and flooded forests extend over large areas and can be important Hg methylating sites. We present here a cross-system comparison of the Hg net methylation capacity in surface sediments, flooded soils and roots of floating aquatic macrophytes, assayed by in situ incubation with 203Hg and extraction of formed Me203 Hg by acid leaching and toluene. The presence of mono-MeHg was confirmed by thin layer chromatography and other techniques. Study areas included floodplain lakes in the Amazon basin (Tapajós, Negro and Amazon rivers), the Pantanal floodplain (Paraguay river basin), freshwater coastal lagoons in Rio de Janeiro and oxbow lakes in the Mogi-Guaçú river, São Paulo state. Different Hg levels were added in assays performed in 1994-1998, but great care was taken to standardise all other test parameters, to allow data comparisons. Net MeHg production was one order of magnitude higher (mean 13.8%, range 0.28-35) in the living or decomposing roots of floating or rooted macrophyte mats (Eichhornia azurea, E. crassipes, Paspalum sp., Eleocharis sellowiana, Salvinia sp., S. rotundifolia and Scirpus cubensis) than in the surface layer of underlying lake sediments (mean 0.6%, range 0.022-2.5). Methylation in flooded soils presented a wide range and was in some cases similar to the one found in macrophyte roots but usually much lower. In a Tapajós floodplain lake, natural concentrations of MeHg in soil and sediment cores taken along a lake-forest transect agreed well with data on net methylation potentials in the same samples. E. azurea, E. crassipes and Salvinia presented the highest methylation potentials, up to 113 times higher than in sediments. Methylation in E. azurea from six lakes of the Paraguay and Cuiabá rivers, high Pantanal, was determined in the 1998 dry and wet seasons and ranged from

A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie

2013-11-04

At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domainmore » has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast

Projected Flood Risks in China based on CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying

2016-04-01

hazard risks, which are weaker than for the RCP8.5 scenarios. By using the simulations from climate model ensembles to project future flood risks, uncertainty exists for various factors, such as the coarse resolution of global climate models, different approaches to flood assessments, the selection of the weighting coefficients, as well as the used greenhouse gas emission scheme, and the estimations of future population, GDP, and arable land. Therefore, further analysis is needed to reduce the uncertainties of future flood risks.

A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

2016-04-01

Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

Delineating riparian zones for entire river networks using geomorphological criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, D.; Barquín, J.; Álvarez-Cabria, M.; Peñas, F. J.

2012-03-01

Riparian zone delineation is a central issue for riparian and river ecosystem management, however, criteria used to delineate them are still under debate. The area inundated by a 50-yr flood has been indicated as an optimal hydrological descriptor for riparian areas. This detailed hydrological information is, however, not usually available for entire river corridors, and is only available for populated areas at risk of flooding. One of the requirements for catchment planning is to establish the most appropriate location of zones to conserve or restore riparian buffer strips for whole river networks. This issue could be solved by using geomorphological criteria extracted from Digital Elevation Models. In this work we have explored the adjustment of surfaces developed under two different geomorphological criteria with respect to the flooded area covered by the 50-yr flood, in an attempt to rapidly delineate hydrologically-meaningful riparian zones for entire river networks. The first geomorphological criterion is based on the surface that intersects valley walls at a given number of bankfull depths above the channel (BFDAC), while the second is based on the surface defined by a~threshold value indicating the relative cost of moving from the stream up to the valley, accounting for slope and elevation change (path distance). As the relationship between local geomorphology and 50-yr flood has been suggested to be river-type dependant, we have performed our analyses distinguishing between three river types corresponding with three valley morphologies: open, shallow vee and deep vee valleys (in increasing degree of valley constrainment). Adjustment between the surfaces derived from geomorphological and hydrological criteria has been evaluated using two different methods: one based on exceeding areas (minimum exceeding score) and the other on the similarity among total area values. Both methods have pointed out the same surfaces when looking for those that best match with

Numerical simulation of field scale cosolvent flooding for LNAPL remediation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roeder, E.; Brame, S.E.; Falta, R.W.

1995-12-31

This paper describes a modeling study which will support remediation of contaminated soils at Hill Air Force Base in Utah. The site is contaminated with a mixture of solvents, jet fuel, and other organic substances which form a separate phase of low density on top of the water table. A test cell within the contaminant zone will be flooded with a cosolvent/water mixture to drive the nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) out. The modeling study is designed to deterine if buoyancy of the flooding solution will cause it to float on top, if heterogeneity of the ground will channel the cosolventmore » around pockets of NAPL, and the sensitivity of the predicted remediation effectiveness to the uncertainty in ternary information. The modeling effort will use UTCHEM, a 3-dimensional finite-difference flooding simulator which solves mass balance equations for up to 21 components in up to 4 phases.« less

Assimilation of flood extent data with 2D flood inundation models for localised intense rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, J. C.; Wood, M.; Bermúdez, M.; Hostache, R.; Freer, J. E.; Bates, P. D.; Coxon, G.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing of flood inundation extent has long been a potential source of data for constraining and correcting simulations of floodplain inundation. Hydrodynamic models and the computing resources to run them have developed to the extent that simulation of flood inundation in two-dimensional space is now feasible over large river basins in near real-time. However, despite substantial evidence that there is useful information content within inundation extent data, even from low resolution SAR such as that gathered by Envisat ASAR in wide swath mode, making use of the information in a data assimilation system has proved difficult. He we review recent applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter for assimilating SAR data, with a focus on the River Severn UK and compare these with complementary research that has looked at the internal error sources and boundary condition errors using detailed terrestrial data that is not available in most locations. Previous applications of the EnKF to this reach have focused on upstream boundary conditions as the source of flow error, however this description of errors was too simplistic for the simulation of summer flood events where localised intense rainfall can be substantial. Therefore, we evaluate the introduction of uncertain lateral inflows to the ensemble. A further limitation of the existing EnKF based methods is the need to convert flood extent to water surface elevations by intersecting the shoreline location with a high quality digital elevation model (e.g. LiDAR). To simplify this data processing step, we evaluate a method to directly assimilate inundation extent as a EnKF model state rather than assimilating water heights, potentially allowing the scheme to be used where high-quality terrain data are sparse.

Overcoming complexities for consistent, continental-scale flood mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Helen; Zaidman, Maxine; Davison, Charlotte

2013-04-01

The EU Floods Directive requires all member states to produce flood hazard maps by 2013. Although flood mapping practices are well developed in Europe, there are huge variations in the scale and resolution of the maps between individual countries. Since extreme flood events are rarely confined to a single country, this is problematic, particularly for the re/insurance industry whose exposures often extend beyond country boundaries. Here, we discuss the challenges of large-scale hydrological and hydraulic modelling, using our experience of developing a 12-country model and set of maps, to illustrate how consistent, high-resolution river flood maps across Europe can be produced. The main challenges addressed include: data acquisition; manipulating the vast quantities of high-resolution data; and computational resources. Our starting point was to develop robust flood-frequency models that are suitable for estimating peak flows for a range of design flood return periods. We used the index flood approach, based on a statistical analysis of historic river flow data pooled on the basis of catchment characteristics. Historical flow data were therefore sourced for each country and collated into a large pan-European database. After a lengthy validation these data were collated into 21 separate analysis zones or regions, grouping smaller river basins according to their physical and climatic characteristics. The very large continental scale basins were each modelled separately on account of their size (e.g. Danube, Elbe, Drava and Rhine). Our methodology allows the design flood hydrograph to be predicted at any point on the river network for a range of return periods. Using JFlow+, JBA's proprietary 2D hydraulic hydrodynamic model, the calculated out-of-bank flows for all watercourses with an upstream drainage area exceeding 50km2 were routed across two different Digital Terrain Models in order to map the extent and depth of floodplain inundation. This generated modelling for

Priority setting for government investment in forestry conservation schemes-an example from New Zealand

Treesearch

Colin L. O' Loughlin

1991-01-01

In New Zealand responsibility for funding flood protection and erosion prevention and control projects rests largely with local regional authorities. However, in 1988 Central Government decided to provide direct funding for a major forestry conservation scheme in the erosion-susceptible East Coast region. Government's investment decision was influenced by a number...

Geospatial Analysis for Flood-Risk Management, Resilience, and US Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinter, N.; Hui, R.; Conrad, D. R.; Schaefer, K.

2016-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was established in 1968 to curtail unfettered development on US floodplains and spiraling taxpayer expenditures for disaster relief. Currently NFIP underwrites >5 million policies, providing >1.25 trillion in coverage, and taking in >3.5 billion in annual premiums. Cumulative flood-damage payouts to date exceed premiums collected by >$20 billion. Our group has obtained nationwide databases of NFIP flood-damage claims back to 1972, annual policies since 1994, and selective Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) repetitive losses. Attributes include property, claims, and loss characteristics. Other attributes were stripped to maintain policyholder anonymity. At present, locations are to the nearest 0.1° lat/long, zip code, and by community. We combine NFIP data with GIS information from a variety of other sources. Over the past 44 years, 1,625,470 non-zero flood claims are documented. Numbers of claims and losses have increased over time, even with extreme events (Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy) excluded. Flood losses have occurred within 100-year floodplains (1% annual exceedance), in coastal hazard zones, and 25% of claims occur outside of mapped flood-hazard areas. We hypothesize that a many losses outside of FEMA's designated Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) correlate with (1) outdated map panels, (2) contrasting levels of enforcement and mitigation by state. Other distributed flood losses represent stormwater/drainage damage. Claim rates substantially exceed 1%, both in and outside the SFHA, and for "pre-FIRM" and "post-FIRM" structures. This suggests that ≥100-year floods are occurring more frequently than statutory frequencies suggest. For US homeowners, this suggests that flood insurance is a good deal in a variety of settings. The NFIP data analyzed here contrasts with our group's previous, largely model-driven research. Such empirical flood data exclude model assumptions, but add dizzying array of human and

Chemical, microbial and antibiotic susceptibility analyses of groundwater after a major flood event in Chennai

PubMed Central

Gowrisankar, Ganesan; Chelliah, Ramachandran; Ramakrishnan, Sudha Rani; Elumalai, Vetrimurugan; Dhanamadhavan, Saravanan; Brindha, Karthikeyan; Antony, Usha; Elango, Lakshmanan

2017-01-01

During floods, human exposure to pathogens through contaminated water leads to the outbreak of epidemic diseases. This research presents the first extensive assessment of surface and groundwater samples collected immediately after a flood (December 2015) and post-flood (April 2016) from the Adyar River of Chennai, a major city in India, for major ions, trace metals, bacterial population, and pathogens. Severe rains in a short period of time resulted in flooding which inundated the wells, allowing the entry of sewage contaminated river water into the groundwater zone. This has led to bacterial counts and chemical ions exceeding Bureau of Indian Standard’s recommended limits in most flood affected areas. Pathogens isolated from the groundwater showed resistance to antibiotics, namely ceftriaxone, doxycycline and nalidixic acid. However, they were sensitive to chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, norfloxacin, and tetracycline. Determining the antibiotic susceptibility of pathogens will help in the treatment of humans affected by contaminated water through an appropriate selection of prescribed medication. PMID:28994821

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers, weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiras-Barca, Jorge; Lorenzo, Nieves; Taboada, Juan; Robles, Alba; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2018-06-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - long and narrow structures of anomalously high water vapor flux located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones - have been shown to be closely related to extreme precipitation and flooding. In this paper we analyze the connection between ARs and flooding in the northwestern Spanish region of Galicia under a variety of synoptic conditions represented by the so-called weather types, a classification of daily sea-level pressure patterns obtained by means of a simple scheme that adopts the subjective procedure of Lamb. Flood events are identified from official reports conducted by the Spanish emergency management agency (Protección Civil) from 1979 to 2010. Our results suggest that, although most flood events in Galicia do not coincide with the presence of an overhead AR, ARs are present in the majority of severe cases, particularly in coastal areas. Flood events associated with ARs are connected to cyclonic weather types with westerly and southwesterly flows, which occur mostly in winter months. The link between ARs and severe flooding is not very apparent in inland areas or during summer months, in which case heavy precipitation is usually not frontal in nature but rather convective. Nevertheless, our results show that, in general, the amount of precipitation in flood events in Galicia more than doubles when an AR is present.

A 2D flood inundation model based on cellular automata approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Todini, Ezio

2010-05-01

In the past years, the cellular automata approach has been successfully applied in two-dimensional modelling of flood events. When used in experimental applications, models based on such approach have provided good results, comparable to those obtained with more complex 2D models; moreover, CA models have proven significantly faster and easier to apply than most of existing models, and these features make them a valuable tool for flood analysis especially when dealing with large areas. However, to date the real degree of accuracy of such models has not been demonstrated, since they have been mainly used in experimental applications, while very few comparisons with theoretical solutions have been made. Also, the use of an explicit scheme of solution, which is inherent in cellular automata models, forces them to work only with small time steps, thus reducing model computation speed. The present work describes a cellular automata model based on the continuity and diffusive wave equations. Several model versions based on different solution schemes have been realized and tested in a number of numerical cases, both 1D and 2D, comparing the results with theoretical and numerical solutions. In all cases, the model performed well compared to the reference solutions, and proved to be both stable and accurate. Finally, the version providing the best results in terms of stability was tested in a real flood event and compared with different hydraulic models. Again, the cellular automata model provided very good results, both in term of computational speed and reproduction of the simulated event.

Expression of root-related transcription factors associated with flooding tolerance of soybean (Glycine max).

PubMed

Valliyodan, Babu; Van Toai, Tara T; Alves, Jose Donizeti; de Fátima P Goulart, Patricia; Lee, Jeong Dong; Fritschi, Felix B; Rahman, Mohammed Atiqur; Islam, Rafiq; Shannon, J Grover; Nguyen, Henry T

2014-09-29

Much research has been conducted on the changes in gene expression of the model plant Arabidopsis to low-oxygen stress. Flooding results in a low oxygen environment in the root zone. However, there is ample evidence that tolerance to soil flooding is more than tolerance to low oxygen alone. In this study, we investigated the physiological response and differential expression of root-related transcription factors (TFs) associated with the tolerance of soybean plants to soil flooding. Differential responses of PI408105A and S99-2281 plants to ten days of soil flooding were evaluated at physiological, morphological and anatomical levels. Gene expression underlying the tolerance response was investigated using qRT-PCR of root-related TFs, known anaerobic genes, and housekeeping genes. Biomass of flood-sensitive S99-2281 roots remained unchanged during the entire 10 days of flooding. Flood-tolerant PI408105A plants exhibited recovery of root growth after 3 days of flooding. Flooding induced the development of aerenchyma and adventitious roots more rapidly in the flood-tolerant than the flood-sensitive genotype. Roots of tolerant plants also contained more ATP than roots of sensitive plants at the 7th and 10th days of flooding. Quantitative transcript analysis identified 132 genes differentially expressed between the two genotypes at one or more time points of flooding. Expression of genes related to the ethylene biosynthesis pathway and formation of adventitious roots was induced earlier and to higher levels in roots of the flood-tolerant genotype. Three potential flood-tolerance TFs which were differentially expressed between the two genotypes during the entire 10-day flooding duration were identified. This study confirmed the expression of anaerobic genes in response to soil flooding. Additionally, the differential expression of TFs associated with soil flooding tolerance was not qualitative but quantitative and temporal. Functional analyses of these genes will be

Expression of Root-Related Transcription Factors Associated with Flooding Tolerance of Soybean (Glycine max)

PubMed Central

Valliyodan, Babu; Van Toai, Tara T.; Alves, Jose Donizeti; de Fátima P. Goulart, Patricia; Lee, Jeong Dong; Fritschi, Felix B.; Rahman, Mohammed Atiqur; Islam, Rafiq; Shannon, J. Grover; Nguyen, Henry T.

2014-01-01

Much research has been conducted on the changes in gene expression of the model plant Arabidopsis to low-oxygen stress. Flooding results in a low oxygen environment in the root zone. However, there is ample evidence that tolerance to soil flooding is more than tolerance to low oxygen alone. In this study, we investigated the physiological response and differential expression of root-related transcription factors (TFs) associated with the tolerance of soybean plants to soil flooding. Differential responses of PI408105A and S99-2281 plants to ten days of soil flooding were evaluated at physiological, morphological and anatomical levels. Gene expression underlying the tolerance response was investigated using qRT-PCR of root-related TFs, known anaerobic genes, and housekeeping genes. Biomass of flood-sensitive S99-2281 roots remained unchanged during the entire 10 days of flooding. Flood-tolerant PI408105A plants exhibited recovery of root growth after 3 days of flooding. Flooding induced the development of aerenchyma and adventitious roots more rapidly in the flood-tolerant than the flood-sensitive genotype. Roots of tolerant plants also contained more ATP than roots of sensitive plants at the 7th and 10th days of flooding. Quantitative transcript analysis identified 132 genes differentially expressed between the two genotypes at one or more time points of flooding. Expression of genes related to the ethylene biosynthesis pathway and formation of adventitious roots was induced earlier and to higher levels in roots of the flood-tolerant genotype. Three potential flood-tolerance TFs which were differentially expressed between the two genotypes during the entire 10-day flooding duration were identified. This study confirmed the expression of anaerobic genes in response to soil flooding. Additionally, the differential expression of TFs associated with soil flooding tolerance was not qualitative but quantitative and temporal. Functional analyses of these genes will be

Flash flood warning based on fully dynamic hydrology modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Nickovic, Slobodan

2016-04-01

Numerical hydrologic modeling has achieved limited success in the past due to, inter alia, lack of adequate input data. Over the last decade, data availability has improved substantially. For modelling purposes, high-resolution data on topography, river routing, and land cover and soil features have meanwhile become available, as well as the observations such as radar precipitation information. In our study, we have implemented the HYPROM model (Hydrology Prognostic Model) to predict a flash flood event at a smaller-scale basin in Southern Serbia. HYPROM is based on the full set of governing equations for surface hydrological dynamics, in which momentum components, along with the equation of mass continuity, are used as full prognostic equations. HYPROM also includes a river routing module serving as a collector for the extra surface water. Such approach permits appropriate representation of different hydrology scales ranging from flash floods to flows of large and slow river basins. The use of full governing equations, if not appropriately parameterized, may lead to numerical instability systems when the surface water in a model is vanishing. To resolve these modelling problems, an unconditionally stable numerical scheme and a method for height redistribution avoiding shortwave height noise have been developed in HYPROM, which achieve numerical convergence of u, v and h when surface water disappears. We have applied HYPROM, driven by radar-estimated precipitation, to predict flash flooding occurred over smaller and medium-size river basins. Two torrential rainfall cases have been simulated to check the accuracy of the model: the exceptional flooding of May 2014 in Western Serbia, and the convective flash flood of January 2015 in Southern Serbia. The second episode has been successfully predicted by HYPROM in terms of timing and intensity six hours before the event occurred. Such flash flood warning system is in preparation to be operationally implemented in the

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

The FASTER Approach: A New Tool for Calculating Real-Time Tsunami Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Cross, A.; Johnson, L.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis that struck the California coastline, emergency managers requested that the state tsunami program provide more detailed information about the flood potential of distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. The main issue is that existing tsunami evacuation plans call for evacuation of the predetermined "worst-case" tsunami evacuation zone (typically at a 30- to 50-foot elevation) during any "Warning" level event; the alternative is to not call an evacuation at all. A solution to provide more detailed information for secondary evacuation zones has been the development of tsunami evacuation "playbooks" to plan for tsunami scenarios of various sizes and source locations. To determine a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami, an analytical tool has been developed called the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the National Tsunami Warning Center provides tsunami forecast amplitudes and arrival times for approximately 60 coastal locations in California. At the same time, the regional NOAA Weather Forecast Offices in the state calculate the forecasted coastal storm and tidal conditions that will influence tsunami flooding. Providing added conservatism in calculating tsunami flood potential, we include an error factor of 30% for the forecast amplitude, which is based on observed forecast errors during recent events, and a site specific run-up factor which is calculated from the existing state tsunami modeling database. The factors are added together into a cumulative FASTER flood potential value for the first five hours of tsunami activity and used to select the appropriate tsunami phase evacuation "playbook" which is provided to each coastal community shortly after the forecast

Natural Flood Management in context: evaluating and enhancing the impact.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, Peter; Beven, Keith; Hankin, Barry; Lamb, Rob

2016-04-01

The series of flood events in the UK throughout December 2015 have led to calls for a reappraisal of the country's approach to flood management. In parts of Cumbria so-called "1 in 100" year floods have occurred three times in the last ten years, leading to significant infrastructure damage. Hard-engineered defences upgraded to cope with an anticipated 20% increase in peak flows and these 1% AEP events have been overwhelmed. It has become more widely acknowledged that unsympathetic agricultural and upland management practices, mainly since the Second World War, have led to a significant loss of storage in mid and upper catchments and their consequent ability to retain and slow storm run-off. Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a nature-based solution to restoring this storage and flood peak attenuation through a network of small-scale features exploiting natural topography and materials. Combined with other "soft" interventions such as restoring flood plain roughness and tree-planting, NFM offers the attractive prospect of an intervention that can target both the ecological and chemical objectives of the Water Framework Directive and the resilience demanded by the Floods Directive. We developed a simple computerised physical routing model that can account for the presence of in-channel and offline features such as would be found in a NFM scheme. These will add storage to the channel and floodplain and throttle the downstream discharge at storm flows. The model was applied to the heavily-modified channel network of an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire using the run-off simulated for two storm events that caused flooding downstream in the autumn of 2012. Using up to 60 online features we demonstrated some gains in channel storage and a small impact on the flood hydrograph which would, however, have been insufficient to prevent the downstream floods in either of the storms. Complementary research at JBA has applied their hydrodynamic model JFLOW+ to identify

Adige river in Trento flooding map, 1892: private or public risk transfer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranzi, Roberto

2016-04-01

For the determination of the flood risk hydrologist and hydraulic engineers focuse their attention mainly to the estimation of physical factors determining the flood hazard, while economists and experts of social sciences deal mainly with the estimation of vulnerability and exposure. The fact that flood zoning involves both hydrological and socio-economic aspects, however, was clear already in the XIX century when the impact of floods on inundated areas started to appear in flood maps, for instance in the UK and in Italy. A pioneering 'flood risk' map for the Adige river in Trento, Italy, was already published in 1892, taking into account in detail both hazard intensity in terms of velocity and depth, frequency of occurrence, vulnerability and economic costs for flood protection with river embankments. This map is likely to be the reinterpreted certainly as a pioneering, and possibly as the first flood risk map for an Italian river and worldwide. Risk levels were divided in three categories and seven sub-categories, depending on flood water depth, velocity, frequency and damage costs. It is interesting to notice the fact that at that time the map was used to share the cost of levees' reparation and enhancement after the severe September 1882 flood as a function of the estimated level of protection of the respective areas against the flood risk. The sharing of costs between public bodies, the railway company and private owners was debated for about 20 years and at the end the public sustained the major costs. This shows how already at that time the economic assessment of structural flood protections was based on objective and rational cost-benefit criteria, that hydraulic risk mapping was perceived by the society as fundamental for the design of flood protection systems and that a balanced cost sharing between public and private was an accepted approach although some protests arose at that time.

Development of cost-effective surfactant flooding technology. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pope, G.A.; Sepehrnoori, K.

1996-11-01

Task 1 of this research was the development of a high-resolution, fully implicit, finite-difference, multiphase, multicomponent, compositional simulator for chemical flooding. The major physical phenomena modeled in this simulator are dispersion, heterogeneous permeability and porosity, adsorption, interfacial tension, relative permeability and capillary desaturation, compositional phase viscosity, compositional phase density and gravity effects, capillary pressure, and aqueous-oleic-microemulsion phase behavior. Polymer and its non-Newtonian rheology properties include shear-thinning viscosity, permeability reduction, inaccessible pore volume, and adsorption. Options of constant or variable space grids and time steps, constant-pressure or constant-rate well conditions, horizontal and vertical wells, and multiple slug injections are also availablemore » in the simulator. The solution scheme used in this simulator is fully implicit. The pressure equation and the mass-conservation equations are solved simultaneously for the aqueous-phase pressure and the total concentrations of each component. A third-order-in-space, second-order-in-time finite-difference method and a new total-variation-diminishing (TVD) third-order flux limiter are used that greatly reduce numerical dispersion effects. Task 2 was the optimization of surfactant flooding. The code UTCHEM was used to simulate surfactant polymer flooding.« less

Flood resilience urban territories. Flood resilience urban territories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beraud, Hélène; Barroca, Bruno; Hubert, Gilles

2010-05-01

The flood's impact during the last twenty years on French territory reveals our lack of preparation towards large-extended floods which might cause the stopping of companies' activity, services, or lead to housing unavailability during several months. New Orleans' case has to exemplify us: four years after the disaster, the city still couldn't get back its dynamism. In France, more than 300 towns are flood-exposed. While these towns are the mainspring of territory's development, it is likely that the majority of them couldn't get up quickly after a large-extended flood. Therefore, to understand and improve the urban territory's resilience facing floods is a real stake for territory's development. Urban technical networks supply, unify and irrigate all urban territories' constituents. Characterizing their flood resilience can be interesting to understand better urban resilience. In this context, waste management during and after floods is completely crucial. During a flood, the waste management network can become dysfunctional (roads cut, waste storage installations or waste treatment flooded). How can the mayor respect his obligation to guarantee salubrity and security in his city? In post flood the question is even more problematic. The waste management network presents a real stake for territory's restart. After a flood, building materials, lopped-of branches, furniture, business stocks, farm stocks, mud, rubbles, animal cadavers are wet, mixed, even polluted by hydrocarbons or toxic substances. The waste's volume can be significant. Sanitary and environmental risks can be crucial. In view of this situation, waste's management in post crisis period raises a real problem. What to make of this waste? How to collect it? Where to stock it? How to process it? Who is responsible? Answering these questions is all the more strategic since this waste is the mark of disaster. Thus, cleaning will be the first population's and local actor's reflex in order to forget the

Control Scheme of River-lake System from the View of Ecological Sponge Basin aiming at Sponge City Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, X.; Liu, J.; Yang, Z.

2017-12-01

China is in the rapid advance of urbanization, and is promoting the Sponge City Construction (SCC) with the characteristics of natural accumulation, natural infiltration and natural purification. The Chinese government selected 16 and 14 cities as pilot cities in 2015 and 2016 respectively to carry out SCC taking Low Impact Development (LID) as the concept. However, in 2015 and 2016, water-logging occurred in 10 cities and 9 cities respectively during the pilot cities. Therefore, relying solely on LID can not solve the problem of urban flood and waterlogging. Except for a series of LID measures during the process of SCC, corresponding control scheme of river-lake system should be established to realize water-related targets. From the view of ecological sponge basin, this study presents the general idea of SCC both in and out of the unban built-up area and the corresponding control scheme of river-lake system: for the regions outside the built-up area, the main aim of SCC is to carry out the top-level design of urban flood control and waterlogging, establish the water security system outside the city for solving the problems including flood control, water resources, water environment and water ecology; for the built-up area, the main aim of SCC is to construct different kinds of urban sponge according to local conditions and develop multi-scale drainage system responding to different intensities of rainfall taking the river-lake system as the core. Taking Fenghuang County of Hunan Province as an example for the application research, the results indicate that, after the implementation of the control scheme of river-lake system: 1) together with other SCC measures including LID, the control rate of total annual runoff in Fenghuang County is expected to be 82.9% which meets the target requirement of 80%; 2) flood control and drainage standards in Fenghuang County can be increased from the current 10-year return to 20-year return; 3) urban and rural water supply

Testing the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batelis, Stamatios-Christos; Rosolem, Rafael; Han, Dawei; Rahman, Mostaquimur

2017-04-01

Land Surface Models (LSM) are based on physics principles and simulate the exchanges of energy, water and biogeochemical cycles between the land surface and lower atmosphere. Such models are typically applied for climate studies or effects of land use changes but as the resolution of LSMs and supporting observations are continuously increasing, its representation of hydrological processes need to be addressed adequately. For example, changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology of a region, for instance, by altering its flooding regime. LSMs can be a powerful tool because of their ability to spatially represent a region with much finer resolution. However, despite such advantages, its performance has not been extensively assessed for flood forecasting simply because its representation of typical hydrological processes, such as overland flow and river routing, are still either ignored or roughly represented. In this study, we initially test the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) as a flood forecast tool focusing on its river routing scheme. In particular, JULES river routing parameterization is based on the Rapid Flow Model (RFM) which relies on six prescribed parameters (two surface and two subsurface wave celerities, and two return flow fractions). Although this routing scheme is simple, the prescription of its six default parameters is still too generalized. Our aim is to understand the importance of each RFM parameter in a series of JULES simulations at a number of catchments in the UK for the 2006-2015 period. This is carried out, for instance, by making a number of assumptions of parameter behaviour (e.g., spatially uniform versus varying and/or temporally constant or time-varying parameters within each catchment). Hourly rainfall radar in combination with the CHESS (Climate, Hydrological and Ecological research Support System) meteorological daily data both at 1 km2 resolution are used. The evaluation of the model is based on hourly runoff

Design, implementation, and evaluation of a community financing scheme for hospital care in developing countries: a pre-paid health plan in the Bwamanda health zone, Zaire.

PubMed

Moens, F

1990-01-01

Unless scarce resources can be mobilized and used efficiently, health for all by the year 2000 will remain a vain attempt. Innovative financing schemes exploring increased cost recovery from the users of the health system are explored throughout the world. In Bwamanda, Zaire, a community financing scheme for hospital care was developed through the application of operations research. A preference heuristic with considerable involvement of health providers and the community was used to identify the type of financing scheme and resulted in a pre-paid health plan, while a mathematical model was developed to determine the premiums to charge. The implementation of the health plant is briefly described. An evaluation of the effects of the pre-paid plan on the accessibility and equity of health care, as well as on the financial sustainability of the hospital, is presented and discussed: a steadily increasing membership of the health plan illustrates its appropriateness, while a doubling of the cost recovery of the hospital's operating costs after two years seems promising; the hospitalization rate of members of the health plan was significantly higher than for non-members. These findings suggest that a health zone may be an appropriate level for the organization of a regional pre-paid health plan. Problems of equity, full cost recovery, and replicability of the financing scheme are discussed.

A Strategy for a Parametric Flood Insurance Using Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, the design of flood control infrastructure and flood plain zoning require the estimation of return periods, which have been calculated by river hydraulic models with rainfall-runoff models. However, this multi-step modeling process leads to significant uncertainty to assess inundation. In addition, land use change and changing climate alter the potential losses, as well as make the modeling results obsolete. For these reasons, there is a strong need to create parametric indexes for the financial risk transfer for large flood events, to enable rapid response and recovery. Hence, this study examines the possibility of developing a parametric flood index at the national or regional level in Asia, which can be quickly mobilized after catastrophic floods. Specifically, we compare a single trigger based on rainfall index with multiple triggers using rainfall and streamflow indices by conducting case studies in Bangladesh and Thailand. The proposed methodology is 1) selecting suitable indices of rainfall and streamflow (if available), 2) identifying trigger levels for specified return periods for losses using stepwise and logistic regressions, 3) measuring the performance of indices, and 4) deriving return periods of selected windows and trigger levels. Based on the methodology, actual trigger levels were identified for Bangladesh and Thailand. Models based on multiple triggers reduced basis risks, an inherent problem in an index insurance. The proposed parametric flood index can be applied to countries with similar geographic and meteorological characteristics, and serve as a promising method for ex-ante risk financing for developing countries. This work is intended to be a preliminary work supporting future work on pricing risk transfer mechanisms in ex-ante risk finance.

Floods of 1971 and 1972 on Glover Creek and Little River in southeastern Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Wilbert O.; Corley, Robert K.

1973-01-01

Heavy rains of December 9-10, 1971, and Oct. 30-31, 1972, caused outstanding floods on Glover Creek and Little River in McCurtain County in southeastern Oklahoma. This report presents hydrologic data that document the extent of flooding, flood profiles, and frequency of flooding on reaches of both streams. The data presented provide a technical basis for formulating effective flood-plain zoning that will minimize existing and future flood problems. The report also can be useful for locating waste-disposal and water-treatment facilities, and for the development of recreational areas. The area studied includes the reach of Little River on the Garvin and Idabel 7 1/2-minute quadrangles (sheet 1) and the reach of Glover Creek on the southwest quarter of the Golden 15-minute quadrangle (sheet 2). The flood boundaries delineated on the maps are the limits of flooding during the December 1971 and October 1972 floods. Any attempt to delineate the flood boundaries on streams in the study area other than Glover Creek and Little River was considered to be beyond the scope of this report. The general procedure used in defining the flood boundaries was to construct the flood profiles from high-water marks obtained by field surveys and by records at three stream-gaging stations (two on Little River and one on Glover Creek.). The extent of flooding was delineated on the topographic maps by using the flood profiles to define the flood elevations at various points along the channel and locating the elevations on the map by interpolating between contours (lines of equal ground elevation). In addition, flood boundaries were defined in places by field survey, aerial photographs, and information from local residents. The accuracy of the flood boundaries is consistent with the scale and contour interval of the maps (1 inch = 2,000 feet; contour interval 10 and 20 feet), which means the flood boundaries are drawn as accurately as possible on maps having 10- and 20-foot contour intervals.

Effects of Flood Control Strategies on Flood Resilience Under Sociohydrological Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, Kyungmin; Jeong, Hanseok; Sangwan, Nikhil; Yu, David J.

2018-04-01

A community capacity to cope with flood hazards, or community flood resilience, emerges from the interplay of hydrological and social processes. This interplay can be significantly influenced by the flood control strategy adopted by a society, i.e., how a society sets its desired flood protection level and strives to achieve this goal. And this interplay can be further complicated by rising land-sea level differences, seasonal water level fluctuations, and economic change. But not much research has been done on how various forms of flood control strategies affect human-flood interactions under these disturbances and therefore flood resilience in the long run. The current study is an effort to address these issues by developing a conceptual model of human-flood interaction mediated by flood control strategies. Our model extends the existing model of Yu et al. (2017), who investigated the flood resilience of a community-based flood protection system in coastal Bangladesh. The major extensions made in this study are inclusions of various forms of flood control strategies (both adaptive and nonadaptive ones), the challenge of rising land-sea level differences, and various high tide level scenarios generated from modifying the statistical variances and averages. Our results show that adaptive forms of flood control strategies tend to outperform nonadaptive ones for maintaining the model community's flood protection system. Adaptive strategies that dynamically adjust target flood protection levels through close monitoring of flood damages and social memories of flood risk can help the model community deal with various disturbances.

Modeling and simulation of surfactant-polymer flooding using a new hybrid method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daripa, Prabir; Dutta, Sourav

2017-04-01

Chemical enhanced oil recovery by surfactant-polymer (SP) flooding has been studied in two space dimensions. A new global pressure for incompressible, immiscible, multicomponent two-phase porous media flow has been derived in the context of SP flooding. This has been used to formulate a system of flow equations that incorporates the effect of capillary pressure and also the effect of polymer and surfactant on viscosity, interfacial tension and relative permeabilities of the two phases. The coupled system of equations for pressure, water saturation, polymer concentration and surfactant concentration has been solved using a new hybrid method in which the elliptic global pressure equation is solved using a discontinuous finite element method and the transport equations for water saturation and concentrations of the components are solved by a Modified Method Of Characteristics (MMOC) in the multicomponent setting. Numerical simulations have been performed to validate the method, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and to evaluate the relative performance of the various flooding schemes for several different heterogeneous reservoirs.

Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

2016-04-01

Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

Rapid flood loss estimation for large scale floods in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Merz, Bruno

2013-04-01

Rapid evaluations of flood events are needed for efficient responses both in emergency management and financial appraisal. Beyond that, closely monitoring and documenting the formation and development of flood events and their impacts allows for an improved understanding and in depth analyses of the interplay between meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and societal causes leading to flood damage. This contribution focuses on the development of a methodology for the rapid assessment of flood events. In the first place, the focus is on the prediction of damage to residential buildings caused by large scale floods in Germany. For this purpose an operational flood event analysis system is developed. This system has basic spatial thematic data available and supports data capturing about the current flood situation. This includes the retrieval of online gauge data and the integration of remote sensing data. Further, it provides functionalities to evaluate the current flood situation, to assess the hazard extent and intensity and to estimate the current flood impact using the flood loss estimation model FLEMOps+r. The operation of the flood event analysis system will be demonstrated for the past flood event from January 2011 with a focus on the Elbe/Saale region. On this grounds, further requirements and potential for improving the information basis as for instance by including hydrological and /or hydraulic model results as well as information from social sensors will be discussed.

Flood Impact Assessment in the Surrounding Area of Suvarnabhumi Airport, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tingsanchali, Tawatchai; Eng, D.

2009-03-01

. Environmental and social impacts are investigated and counter measures are proposed to reduce the impacts. The study considers compensating scheme for people who are directly affected by the flood drainage project and those who will lose their lands or their professions. Considerations are also extended to people who are indirectly affected by the project. Institutional framework is recommended to be established to manage flood control and drainage and water resources in the surrounding area of the airport.

Characterization of return flow pathways during flood irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claes, N.; Paige, G. B.; Parsekian, A.; Gordon, B. L.; Miller, S. N.

2015-12-01

With a decline in water resources available for private consumption and irrigation, the importance of sustainable water management practices is increasing. Local management decisions, based on models may affect the availability of water both locally and downstream, causing a ripple effect. It is therefore important that the models that these local management decisions are based on, accurately quantify local hydrological processes and the timescales at which they happen. We are focusing on return flow from flood irrigation, which can occur via different pathways back to the streams: overland flow, near-surface return flow and return flow via pathways below the vadose zone. The question addressed is how these different pathways each contribute to the total amount of return flow and the dynamics behind them. We used time-lapse ERT measurements in combination with an ensemble of ERT and seismic lines to answer this question via (1) capturing the process of gradual fragmentation of aqueous environments in the vadose zone during drying stages at field scale; (2) characterization of the formation of preferential flow paths from infiltrating wetting fronts during wetting cycles at field scale. The time-lapse ERT provides the possibility to capture the dynamic processes involved during the occurrence of finger flow or macro-pores when an intensive wetting period during flood irrigation occurs. It elucidates the dynamics of retention in the vadose zone during drying and wetting periods at field scale. This method provides thereby a link to upscale from laboratory experiments to field scale and watershed scale for finger flow and preferential flow paths and illustrates the hysteresis behavior at field scale.

Assessment of hyporheic zone, flood-plain, soil-gas, soil, and surface-water contamination at the Old Incinerator Area, Fort Gordon, Georgia, 2009-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guimaraes, Wladmir B.; Falls, W. Fred; Caldwell, Andral W.; Ratliff, W. Hagan; Wellborn, John B.; Landmeyer, James E.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army Environmental and Natural Resources Management Office of the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, Georgia, assessed the hyporheic zone, flood plain, soil gas, soil, and surface-water for contaminants at the Old Incinerator Area at Fort Gordon, from October 2009 to September 2010. The assessment included the detection of organic contaminants in the hyporheic zone, flood plain, soil gas, and surface water. In addition, the organic contaminant assessment included the analysis of explosives and chemical agents in selected areas. Inorganic contaminants were assessed in soil and surface-water samples. The assessment was conducted to provide environmental contamination data to the U.S. Army at Fort Gordon pursuant to requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Part B Hazardous Waste Permit process. Total petroleum hydrocarbons were detected above the method detection level in all 13 samplers deployed in the hyporheic zone and flood plain of an unnamed tributary to Spirit Creek. The combined concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylene were detected at 3 of the 13 samplers. Other organic compounds detected in one sampler included octane and trichloroethylene. In the passive soil-gas survey, 28 of the 60 samplers detected total petroleum hydrocarbons above the method detection level. Additionally, 11 of the 60 samplers detected the combined masses of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylene above the method detection level. Other compounds detected above the method detection level in the passive soil-gas survey included octane, trimethylbenzene, perchlorethylene, and chloroform. Subsequent to the passive soil-gas survey, six areas determined to have relatively high contaminant mass were selected, and soil-gas samplers were deployed, collected, and analyzed for explosives and chemical agents. No explosives or chemical agents were detected above

A new method, with application, for analysis of the impacts on flood risk of widely distributed enhanced hillslope storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, Peter; Beven, Keith; Hankin, Barry; Lamb, Rob

2018-04-01

Enhanced hillslope storage is utilised in natural flood management in order to retain overland storm run-off and to reduce connectivity between fast surface flow pathways and the channel. Examples include excavated ponds, deepened or bunded accumulation areas, and gullies and ephemeral channels blocked with wooden barriers or debris dams. The performance of large, distributed networks of such measures is poorly understood. Extensive schemes can potentially retain large quantities of run-off, but there are indications that much of their effectiveness can be attributed to desynchronisation of sub-catchment flood waves. Inappropriately sited measures may therefore increase, rather than mitigate, flood risk. Fully distributed hydrodynamic models have been applied in limited studies but introduce significant computational complexity. The longer run times of such models also restrict their use for uncertainty estimation or evaluation of the many potential configurations and storm sequences that may influence the timings and magnitudes of flood waves. Here a simplified overland flow-routing module and semi-distributed representation of enhanced hillslope storage is developed. It is applied to the headwaters of a large rural catchment in Cumbria, UK, where the use of an extensive network of storage features is proposed as a flood mitigation strategy. The models were run within a Monte Carlo framework against data for a 2-month period of extreme flood events that caused significant damage in areas downstream. Acceptable realisations and likelihood weightings were identified using the GLUE uncertainty estimation framework. Behavioural realisations were rerun against the catchment model modified with the addition of the hillslope storage. Three different drainage rate parameters were applied across the network of hillslope storage. The study demonstrates that schemes comprising widely distributed hillslope storage can be modelled effectively within such a reduced

On the potential of RST approach for a continuous monitoring of flooded areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faruolo, Mariapia; Coviello, Irina; Lacava, Teodosio; Pergola, Nicola; Tramutoli, Valerio

2010-05-01

In recent decades many efforts have been made in the field of remote sensing for the management of flood risk. In fact, among all natural disasters floods are probably the most frequent, causing high human suffering and large losses. All activities designed to mitigate and manage flood risk, in order to be effective and to help civil protection agencies in limiting losses of life, human suffering and damages, need of timely information about the onset of floods, their extent, intensity and duration. At present, sensors aboard meteorological satellites, mainly thanks to their high temporal resolution, may furnish frequent and updated images, ensuring a continuous monitoring of areas involved by a flood. In particular, optical instruments on board polar satellites, like NOAA-AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and more recently EOS-MODIS (Earth Observing System-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) have been used for dynamic flood monitoring. A robust methodology for satellite based flood monitoring and detection, named RST (Robust Satellite Technique), has been recently developed and implemented using data acquired by AVHRR and MODIS to identify flooded areas with reliability and timeliness. Such an approach, based on a multi-temporal analysis of co-located satellite records and an automatic change detection scheme, has been used to analyze floods occurred in different geographic areas and observational conditions. In detail, in order to identify flooded areas within the region of interest, the spectral behavior of water in the visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) bands of such satellite systems has been successfully exploited. Starting from these satisfactory results, the main purpose of this paper is to show, in the case of several flooding events occurred recently in different parts of the world, the achievements arising from the use of such methodology also to data acquired in the thermal

An Approach to Assessing Flood Risk in Low-lying Paddy Areas of Japan considering Economic Damage on Rice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minakawa, H.; Masumoto, T.

2013-12-01

constructed in a rice paddy plot, which consisted of two zones, one in which the rice was cultivated as usual with normal water levels, and a flood zone, which was used for submerging rice plants. The flood zone, which was designed to reproduce actual flood disaster conditions in paddy fields, can be filled with water to a depth of 0.3, 0.6 or 0.9 m above ground level, and is divided into two plots, a clean water part and a turbid water part. Thus, the experimental conditions can vary according to 1) the development stage of rice, 2) complete or incomplete submersion, 3) clean or turbid water, and 4) duration of submergence. Finally, the reduction scales were formulated by using the resultant data and it was found that rice is most sensitive to damage during the development stage. Flood risk was evaluated by using calculated water level on each paddy. Here, the averaged duration of inundation to a depth of more than 0.3 m was used as the criteria for flood occurrence. The results indicated that the duration increased with larger heavy rainfall amounts. Furthermore, the damage to rice was predicted to increase especially in low-lying paddy fields. Mitigation measures, such as revising drainage planning and/or changing design standards for the capacity of drainage pumps may be necessary in the future.

Flash floods in Europe: state of the art and research perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaume, Eric

2014-05-01

Flash floods, i.e. floods induced by severe rainfall events generally affecting watersheds of limited area, are the most frequent, destructive and deadly kind of natural hazard known in Europe and throughout the world. Flash floods are especially intense across the Mediterranean zone, where rainfall accumulations exceeding 500 mm within a few hours may be observed. Despite this state of facts, the study of extremes in hydrology has essentially gone unexplored until the recent past, with the exception of some rare factual reports on individual flood events, with the sporadic inclusion of isolated estimated peak discharges. Floods of extraordinary magnitude are in fact hardly ever captured by existing standard measurement networks, either because they are too heavily concentrated in space and time or because their discharges greatly exceed the design and calibration ranges of the measurement devices employed (stream gauges). This situation has gradually evolved over the last decade for two main reasons. First, the expansion and densification of weather radar networks, combined with improved radar quantitative precipitation estimates, now provide ready access to rainfall measurements at spatial and temporal scales that, while not perfectly accurate, are compatible with the study of extreme events. Heavy rainfall events no longer fail to be recorded by existing rain gauge and radar networks. Second, pioneering research efforts on extreme floods, based on precise post-flood surveys, have helped overcome the limitations imposed by a small base of available direct measured data. This activity has already yielded significant progress in expanding the knowledge and understanding of extreme flash floods. This presentation will provide a review of the recent research progresses in the area of flash flood studies, mainly based on the outcomes of the European research projects FLOODsite, HYDRATE and Hymex. It will show how intensive collation of field data helped better define

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

Arsenic contamination in New Orleans soil: temporal changes associated with flooding.

PubMed

Rotkin-Ellman, Miriam; Solomon, Gina; Gonzales, Christopher R; Agwaramgbo, Lovell; Mielke, Howard W

2010-01-01

The flooding of New Orleans in late August and September 2005 caused widespread sediment deposition in the flooded areas of the city. Post-flood sampling by US EPA revealed that 37% of sediment samples exceeded Louisiana corrective screening guidelines for arsenic of 12mg/kg, but there was debate over whether this contamination was pre-existing, as almost no pre-flood soil sampling for arsenic had been done in New Orleans. In this study, archived soil samples collected in 1998-1999 were location-matched with 70 residential sites in New Orleans where post-flood arsenic concentrations were elevated. Those same locations were sampled again during the recovery period 18 months later. During the recovery period, sampling for arsenic was also done for the first time at school sites and playgrounds within the flooded zone. Every sample of sediment taken 1-10 months after the flood exceeded the arsenic concentration found in the matched pre-flood soils. The average difference between the two sampling periods was 19.67mg/kg (95% CI 16.63-22.71) with a range of 3.60-74.61mg/kg. At virtually all of these sites (97%), arsenic concentrations decreased substantially by 18 months into the recovery period when the average concentration of matched samples was 3.26mg/kg (95% CI 1.86-4.66). However, 21 (30%) of the samples taken during the recovery period still had higher concentrations of arsenic than the matched sample taken prior to the flooding. In addition, 33% of samples from schoolyards and 13% of samples from playgrounds had elevated arsenic concentrations above the screening guidelines during the recovery period. These findings suggest that the flooding resulted in the deposition of arsenic-contaminated sediments. Diminution of the quantity of sediment at many locations has significantly reduced overall soil arsenic concentrations, but some locations remain of concern for potential long-term soil contamination.

Utah Flooding Hazard: Raising Public Awareness through the Creation of Multidisciplinary Web-Based Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castleton, J.; Erickson, B.; Bowman, S. D.; Unger, C. D.

2014-12-01

The Utah Geological Survey's (UGS) Geologic Hazards Program has partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to create geologically derived web-based flood hazard maps. Flooding in Utah communities has historically been one of the most damaging geologic hazards. The most serious floods in Utah have generally occurred in the Great Salt Lake basin, particularly in the Weber River drainage on the western slopes of the Wasatch Range, in areas of high population density. With a growing population of 2.9 million, the state of Utah is motivated to raise awareness about the potential for flooding. The process of increasing community resiliency to flooding begins with identification and characterization of flood hazards. Many small communities in areas experiencing rapid growth have not been mapped completely by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). Existing FIRM maps typically only consider drainage areas that are greater than one square mile in determining flood zones and do not incorporate geologic data, such as the presence of young, geologically active alluvial fans that indicate a high potential for debris flows and sheet flooding. Our new flood hazard mapping combines and expands on FEMA data by incorporating mapping derived from 1:24,000-scale UGS geologic maps, LiDAR data, digital elevation models, and historical aerial photography. Our flood hazard maps are intended to supplement the FIRM maps to provide local governments and the public with additional flood hazard information so they may make informed decisions, ultimately reducing the risk to life and property from flooding hazards. Flooding information must be widely available and easily accessed. One of the most effective ways to inform the public is through web-based maps. Web-based flood hazard maps will not only supply the public with the flood information they need, but also provides a platform to add additional geologic hazards to an easily accessible format.

Effects of ice and floods on vegetation in streams in cold regions: implications for climate change

PubMed Central

Lind, Lovisa; Nilsson, Christer; Weber, Christine

2014-01-01

Riparian zones support some of the most dynamic and species-rich plant communities in cold regions. A common conception among plant ecologists is that flooding during the season when plants are dormant generally has little effect on the survival and production of riparian vegetation. We show that winter floods may also be of fundamental importance for the composition of riverine vegetation. We investigated the effects of ice formation on riparian and in-stream vegetation in northern Sweden using a combination of experiments and observations in 25 reaches, spanning a gradient from ice-free to ice-rich reaches. The ice-rich reaches were characterized by high production of frazil and anchor ice. In a couple of experiments, we exposed riparian vegetation to experimentally induced winter flooding, which reduced the dominant dwarf-shrub cover and led to colonization of a species-rich forb-dominated vegetation. In another experiment, natural winter floods caused by anchor-ice formation removed plant mimics both in the in-stream and in the riparian zone, further supporting the result that anchor ice maintains dynamic plant communities. With a warmer winter climate, ice-induced winter floods may first increase in frequency because of more frequent shifts between freezing and thawing during winter, but further warming and shortening of the winter might make them less common than today. If ice-induced winter floods become reduced in number because of a warming climate, an important disturbance agent for riparian and in-stream vegetation will be removed, leading to reduced species richness in streams and rivers in cold regions. Given that such regions are expected to have more plant species in the future because of immigration from the south, the distribution of species richness among habitats can be expected to show novel patterns. PMID:25505542

Effects of ice and floods on vegetation in streams in cold regions: implications for climate change.

PubMed

Lind, Lovisa; Nilsson, Christer; Weber, Christine

2014-11-01

Riparian zones support some of the most dynamic and species-rich plant communities in cold regions. A common conception among plant ecologists is that flooding during the season when plants are dormant generally has little effect on the survival and production of riparian vegetation. We show that winter floods may also be of fundamental importance for the composition of riverine vegetation. We investigated the effects of ice formation on riparian and in-stream vegetation in northern Sweden using a combination of experiments and observations in 25 reaches, spanning a gradient from ice-free to ice-rich reaches. The ice-rich reaches were characterized by high production of frazil and anchor ice. In a couple of experiments, we exposed riparian vegetation to experimentally induced winter flooding, which reduced the dominant dwarf-shrub cover and led to colonization of a species-rich forb-dominated vegetation. In another experiment, natural winter floods caused by anchor-ice formation removed plant mimics both in the in-stream and in the riparian zone, further supporting the result that anchor ice maintains dynamic plant communities. With a warmer winter climate, ice-induced winter floods may first increase in frequency because of more frequent shifts between freezing and thawing during winter, but further warming and shortening of the winter might make them less common than today. If ice-induced winter floods become reduced in number because of a warming climate, an important disturbance agent for riparian and in-stream vegetation will be removed, leading to reduced species richness in streams and rivers in cold regions. Given that such regions are expected to have more plant species in the future because of immigration from the south, the distribution of species richness among habitats can be expected to show novel patterns.

76 FR 45421 - Safety Zone; Houma Navigation Canal, From Waterway Mile Markers 19.0 to 20.0, Southwest of Bayou...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-29

..., loss or injury due to the installation of flood control structures/barriers. Vessels and tows transiting this zone transiting the specified water are required to proceed at slowest safe speed to minimize... Coast Guard and the contractually imposed timeline for the installation of flood control structures...

Understanding the effects of past flood events and perceived and estimated flood risks on individuals' voluntary flood insurance purchase behavior.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard; Jackson, Nida; Goidel, Kirby

2017-01-01

Over the past several decades, the economic damage from flooding in the coastal areas has greatly increased due to rapid coastal development coupled with possible climate change impacts. One effective way to mitigate excessive economic losses from flooding is to purchase flood insurance. Only a minority of coastal residents however have taken this preventive measure. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data, this study examines the effects of external influences and perceptions of flood-related risks on individuals' voluntary behaviors to purchase flood insurance. It is found that the estimated flood hazard conveyed through the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) flood maps, the intensities and consequences of past storms and flooding events, and perceived flood-related risks significantly affect individual's voluntary purchase of flood insurance. This behavior is also influenced by home ownership, trust in local government, education, and income. These findings have several important policy implications. First, FEMA's flood maps have been effective in conveying local flood risks to coastal residents, and correspondingly influencing their decisions to voluntarily seek flood insurance in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Flood maps therefore should be updated frequently to reflect timely and accurate information about flood hazards. Second, policy makers should design strategies to increase homeowners' trust in the local government, to better communicate flood risks with residents, to address the affordability issue for the low-income, and better inform less educated homeowners through various educational programs. Future studies should examine the voluntary flood insurance behavior across countries that are vulnerable to flooding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Flood Seasonality in Pooling-Group Formation and Quantile Estimation: An Application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most commonly applied methods for estimating extreme flood events at ungauged sites or locations with short measurement records. It is based on: (i) the definition of a homogeneous group (pooling-group) of catchments, and on (ii) the use of the pooling-group data to estimate flood quantiles. Although many methods to define a pooling-group (pooling schemes, PS) are based on catchment physiographic similarity measures, in the last decade methods based on flood seasonality similarity have been contemplated. In this paper, two seasonality-based PS are proposed and tested both in terms of the homogeneity of the pooling-groups they generate and in terms of the accuracy in estimating extreme flood events. The method has been applied in 420 catchments in Great Britain (considered as both gauged and ungauged) and compared against the current Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) PS. Results for gauged sites show that, compared to the current PS, the seasonality-based PS performs better both in terms of homogeneity of the pooling-group and in terms of the accuracy of flood quantile estimates. For ungauged locations, a national-scale hydrological model has been used for the first time to quantify flood seasonality. Results show that in 75% of the tested locations the seasonality-based PS provides an improvement in the accuracy of the flood quantile estimates. The remaining 25% were located in highly urbanized, groundwater-dependent catchments. The promising results support the aspiration that large-scale hydrological models complement traditional methods for estimating design floods.

CREST v2.1 Refined by a Distributed Linear Reservoir Routing Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, X.; Hong, Y.; Zhang, K.; Hao, Z.; Wang, D.

2014-12-01

Hydrologic modeling is important in water resources management, and flooding disaster warning and management. Routing scheme is among the most important components of a hydrologic model. In this study, we replace the lumped LRR (linear reservoir routing) scheme used in previous versions of the distributed hydrological model, CREST (coupled routing and excess storage) by a newly proposed distributed LRR method, which is theoretically more suitable for distributed hydrological models. Consequently, we have effectively solved the problems of: 1) low values of channel flow in daily simulation, 2) discontinuous flow value along the river network during flood events and 3) irrational model parameters. The CREST model equipped with both the routing schemes have been tested in the Gan River basin. The distributed LRR scheme has been confirmed to outperform the lumped counterpart by two comparisons, hydrograph validation and visual speculation of the continuity of stream flow along the river: 1) The CREST v2.1 (version 2.1) with the implementation of the distributed LRR achieved excellent result of [NSCE(Nash coefficient), CC (correlation coefficient), bias] =[0.897, 0.947 -1.57%] while the original CREST v2.0 produced only negative NSCE, close to zero CC and large bias. 2) CREST v2.1 produced more naturally smooth river flow pattern along the river network while v2.0 simulated bumping and discontinuous discharge along the mainstream. Moreover, we further observe that by using the distributed LRR method, 1) all model parameters fell within their reasonable region after an automatic optimization; 2) CREST forced by satellite-based precipitation and PET products produces a reasonably well result, i.e., (NSCE, CC, bias) = (0.756, 0.871, -0.669%) in the case study, although there is still room to improve regarding their low spatial resolution and underestimation of the heavy rainfall events in the satellite products.

Reductive dechlorination of trichloroethene DNAPL source zones: source zone architecture versus electron donor availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krol, M.; Kokkinaki, A.; Sleep, B.

2014-12-01

The persistence of dense-non-aqueous-phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface has led practitioners and regulatory agencies to turn towards low-maintenance, low-cost remediation methods. Biological degradation has been suggested as a possible solution, based on the well-proven ability of certain microbial species to break down dissolved chlorinated ethenes under favorable conditions. However, the biodegradation of pure phase chlorinated ethenes is subject to additional constraints: the continuous release of electron acceptor at a rate governed by mass transfer kinetics, and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of DNAPL source zones which leads to spatially and temporally variable availability of the reactants for reductive dechlorination. In this work, we investigate the relationship between various DNAPL source zone characteristics and reaction kinetics using COMPSIM, a multiphase groundwater model that considers non-equilibrium mass transfer and Monod-type kinetics for reductive dechlorination. Numerical simulations are performed for simple, homogeneous trichloroethene DNAPL source zones to demonstrate the effect of single source zone characteristics, as well as for larger, more realistic heterogeneous source zones. It is shown that source zone size, and mass transfer kinetics may have a decisive effect on the predicted bio-enhancement. Finally, we evaluate the performance of DNAPL bioremediation for realistic, thermodynamically constrained, concentrations of electron donor. Our results indicate that the latter may be the most important limitation for the success of DNAPL bioremediation, leading to reduced bio-enhancement and, in many cases, comparable performance with water flooding.

Coastal floods and decadal changes: the climate factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diez, J. Javier; Silvestre, J. Manuel; Lopez-Gutierrez, Jose S.

2013-04-01

Observation has widely shown for nearly all last century that the Spanish (Dynamic) Maritime Climate was following around 10 to 11 year cycles in its most significant figure, wind wave, despite it being better to register cycles of 20 to 22 years, in analogical way with the semi-diurnal and diurnal cycles of Cantabrian tides. Those cycles were soon linked to sun activity and, at the end of the century, the latter was related to the Solar System evolution. We know now that waves and storm surges are coupled and that (Dynamic) Maritime Climate forms part of a more complex "Thermal Machine" including Hydrological cycle. The analysis of coastal floods could so facilitate the extension of that experience. According to their immediate cause, simple flood are usually sorted out into flash, pluvial, fluvial, groundwater and coastal types, considering the last as caused by sea waters. But the fact is that most of coastal floods are the result of the concomitance of several former simple types. Actually, the several Southeastern Mediterranean coastal flood events show to be the result of the superposition within the coastal zone of flash, fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flood types under boundary condition imposed by the concomitant storm sea level rise. This work shall be regarded as an attempt to clarify that cyclic experience, through an in-depth review of a past flood events in Valencia (Turia and Júcar basins), as in Murcia (Segura's) as well. The Valencia case study has been specifically studied in relation to the FP7 SMARTeST Project. The historical records of the Turia/Jucar River basins floods are highly large, most of them affecting to Valencia City or surroundings. The following years are considered as having registered great major floods: 1321, 1328, 1340, 1358, 1406, 1427, 1475, 1476, 1487, 1517, 1540, 1546, 1555, 1557, 1577, 1581, 1589, 1590, 1610, 1651, 1672, 1731, 1737, 1766, 1770, 1776, 1783, 1793, 1845, 1860, 1864, 1870, 1897, 1949, 1957, 1982 and 2000

Assessment of Hyporheic Zone, Flood-Plain, Soil-Gas, Soil, and Surface-Water Contamination at the McCoys Creek Chemical Training Area, Fort Gordon, Georgia, 2009-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guimaraes, Wladmir B.; Falls, W. Fred; Caldwell, Andral W.; Ratliff, W. Hagan; Wellborn, John B.; Landmeyer, James E.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army Environmental and Natural Resources Management Office of the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, Georgia, assessed the hyporheic zone, flood plain, soil gas, soil, and surface water for contaminants at the McCoys Creek Chemical Training Area (MCTA) at Fort Gordon, from October 2009 to September 2010. The assessment included the detection of organic contaminants in the hyporheic zone, flood plain, soil gas, and surface water. In addition, the organic contaminant assessment included the analysis of organic compounds classified as explosives and chemical agents in selected areas. Inorganic contaminants were assessed in soil and surface-water samples. The assessment was conducted to provide environmental contamination data to the U.S. Army at Fort Gordon pursuant to requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Part B Hazardous Waste Permit process. Ten passive samplers were deployed in the hyporheic zone and flood plain, and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and octane were detected above the method detection level in every sampler. Other organic compounds detected above the method detection level in the hyporheic zone and flood-plain samplers were trichloroethylene, and cis- and trans- 1, 2-dichloroethylene. One trip blank detected TPH below the method detection level but above the nondetection level. The concentrations of TPH in the samplers were many times greater than the concentrations detected in the blank; therefore, all other TPH concentrations detected are considered to represent environmental conditions. Seventy-one soil-gas samplers were deployed in a grid pattern across the MCTA. Three trip blanks and three method blanks were used and not deployed, and TPH was detected above the method detection level in two trip blanks and one method blank. Detection of TPH was observed at all 71 samplers, but because TPH was detected in the trip and method blanks, TPH was

Planned flooding and Colorado River riparian trade-offs downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Lawrence E.; Ayers, T.J.; Bennett, J.B.; Christensen, K.; Kearsley, M.J.C.; Meretsky, V.J.; Phillips, A. M.; Parnell, R.A.; Spence, J.; Sogge, M.K.; Springer, A.E.; Wegner, D.L.

2001-01-01

Regulated river restoration through planned flooding involves trade-offs between aquatic and terrestrial components, between relict pre-dam and novel post-dam resources and processes, and between management of individual resources and ecosystem characteristics. We review the terrestrial (wetland and riparian) impacts of a 1274 m3/s test flood conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in March/April 1996, which was designed to improve understanding of sediment transport and management downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in the Colorado River ecosystem. The test flood successfully restored sandbars throughout the river corridor and was timed to prevent direct impacts to species of concern. A total of 1275 endangered Kanab ambersnail (Oxyloma haydeni kanabensis) were translocated above the flood zone at Vaseys Paradise spring, and an estimated 10.7% of the total snail habitat and 7.7% of the total snail population were lost to the flood. The test flood scoured channel margin wetlands, including potential foraging habitats of endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus). It also buried ground-covering riparian vegetation under >1 m of fine sand but only slightly altered woody sandbar vegetation and some return-current channel marshes. Pre-flood control efforts and appropriate flood timing limited recruitment of four common nonnative perennial plant species. Slight impacts on ethnobotanical resources were detected >430 km downstream, but those plant assemblages recovered rapidly. Careful design of planned flood hydrograph shape and seasonal timing is required to mitigate terrestrial impacts during efforts to restore essential fluvial geomorphic and aquatic habitats in regulated river ecosystems.

A humanitarian preparedness toolbox: estimating flood affected figures and exposure of livelihoods to future floods events, using freely available datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paron, Paolo; von Hagen, Craig; Peppino Disperati, Stefano; Hermansyah, Budi; Shaheen, Imra; Jan, Qasim; Berloffa, Andrea; Khan, Ruby; Fakhre, Alam

2013-04-01

makers with timely information that can serve as a baseline to inform assessments, data analysis and programming of response. Having an estimate of the potentially affected people and agricultural areas before a disaster occurs, can contribute to an organized, appropriate, more timely and targeted response. We also developed a web-based mapping tool to allow remote access to relevant real-time data and scenarios. By combining maps of land cover, crop zones, flood hazard and population, this project has provided essential geographic orientation for food security preparedness analysis, and is essential for the following reasons: i. It provides the basis for quantifying population at risk of food insecurity before a disaster occurs; ii. It provides a stratification for any post-disaster assessment; iii. Combined with a FS&L (Food Security and Livelihood Assessment), it helps to inform the Food Security response analyses and assistance targeting; iv. It complements and inform the district-based HLV (Hazard Livelihood and Vulnerability baseline and contingency plans) with data and analyses at country and provincial level linked with agriculture seasonal calendars, main key production cycles, and seasonal hazards; v. It provides inputs to any future activities under the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) project.

Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2016-04-01

Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood

A sequential model to link contextual risk, perception and public support for flood adaptation policy.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Small, Mitchell J

2017-10-01

The economic damage from coastal flooding has dramatically increased over the past several decades, owing to rapid development in shoreline areas and possible effects of climate change. To respond to these trends, it is imperative for policy makers to understand individuals' support for flood adaptation policy. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data on flood risk, this study investigates coastal residents' support for two adaptation policy measures: incentives for relocation and funding for educational programs on emergency planning and evacuation. Specifically, this study explores the interactive relationships among contextual flood risks, perceived flood risks and policy support for flood adaptation, with the effects of social-demographic variables being controlled. Age, gender, race and partisanship are found to significantly affect individuals' policy support for both adaptation measures. The contextual flooding risks, indicated by distance from the coast, maximum wind speed and peak height of storm surge associated with the last hurricane landfall, and percentage of high-risk flood zone per county, are shown to impact one's perceptions of risk, which in turn influence one's support for both policy measures. The key finding -risk perception mediates the impact of contextual risk conditions on public support for flood management policies - highlights the need to ensure that the public is well informed by the latest scientific, engineering and economic knowledge. To achieve this, more information on current and future flood risks and options available for mitigation as well as risk communication tools are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of flooding and aging on phytoremediation of typical polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in mangrove sediments by Kandelia obovata seedlings.

PubMed

Li, Rui-Long; Liu, Bei-Bei; Zhu, Ya-Xian; Zhang, Yong

2016-06-01

A laboratory experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of flooding and aging on the phytoremediation of naphthalene (Nap), anthracene (Ant) and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) in mangrove sediment by Kandelia obovata (K. obovata) Druce seedlings. Flooding increased dissipation efficiency in the rhizosphere zone from 69.47% to 82.45%, 64.27% to 80.41%, and 61.55% to 78.31% for Nap, Ant and B[a]P, respectively. Aging decreased dissipation efficiency significantly. Further investigation demonstrated that increased enzyme activity was one of important factors for increasing PAHs dissipation rates in flooded mangrove sediments. Moreover, a novel method for in situ quantitative investigation of PAHs distribution in root tissues was established using microscopic fluorescence spectra analysis. Subsequently, the effects of flooding and aging on the distribution of PAHs in root tissues were evaluated using this established method. The order of bioavailable fractions of PAHs after phytoremediation was as follows: non-aging/non-flooding>flooding>aging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

PubMed

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Flood disturbance and regrowth of vegetation in ephemeral channels: conditions and interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooke, J.

2012-04-01

Flood flows disturb vegetation growing in ephemeral channels but more information is needed on the thresholds for damage and removal and on the regrowth processes and timescales after floods. Once vegetation is re-established then it has feedback effects on processes and may raise thresholds. Several sites in SE Spain have been monitored for the effects of flows and for the growth and responses of plants over a period of >15 years. Two major floods and many minor flows have occurred. Measurements on quadrats and in different zones of the valley floor have allowed quantification of the thresholds for damage of different species of plant. Position of the plants in the channel also has a marked influence on effect of flows; velocities and flow forces for different parts have been calculated. The threshold for removal or mortality of certain plants in these Mediterranean valleys is very high. Types and species of plants regrowing in different zones have been identified and rates of growth measured. The relationship to climatic and weather conditions between channel flows is analysed. Growth rates between floods are closely related to moisture availability, mainly influenced by inter-annual variability of rainfall but also varying with location in the channel. One site in which hydrological regime was altered by human actions has shown marked change in vegetation cover and in channel response. Feedback effects reduce erosion and increase sedimentation and these effects have been measured directly and by calculation of roughness and resistance effects. The results demonstrate the different degrees of adaptation of plants to disturbance, natural vegetation such as phreatophytes showing high resilience but crop trees such as olives and almonds on floodplains being vulnerable to high flows.

May flood-poor periods be more dangerous than flood-rich periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Kuil, Linda; Bloeschl, Guenter

2014-05-01

River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards experienced by populations that, since the earliest recorded civilisations, have settled in floodplains because they offer favourable conditions for trade, agriculture, and economic development. The occurrence of a flood may cause loss of lives and tremendous economic damages and, therefore, is rightly seen as a very negative event by the communities involved. Occurrence of many floods in a row is, of course, even more frustrating and is rightly considered a unbearable calamity. Unfortunately, the occurrence of many floods in a limited number of consecutive years is not unusual. In many places in the world, it has been observed that extreme floods do not arrive randomly but cluster in time into flood-poor and flood-rich periods consistent with the Hurst effect. If this is the case, when are the people more in danger? When should people be more scared? In flood-poor or flood-rich periods? In this work, a Socio-Hydrology model (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014) is used to show that, maybe counter-intuitively, flood-poor periods may be more dangerous than flood-rich periods. The model is a conceptualisation of a hypothetical setting of a city at a river where a community evolves, making choices between flood management options on the floodplain. The most important feedbacks between the economic, political, technological and hydrological processes of the evolution of that community are represented in the model. In particular, the model also accounts in a dynamic way for the evolution of the the community awareness to flood risk. Occurrence of floods tends to increase peoples' recognition that their property is in an area that is potentially at risk of flooding, both at the scales of individuals and communities, which is one of the main reasons why flood coping actions are taken. It is shown through examples that frequent flood events may result in moderate damages because they ensure that the

RASOR flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckers, Joost; Buckman, Lora; Bachmann, Daniel; Visser, Martijn; Tollenaar, Daniel; Vatvani, Deepak; Kramer, Nienke; Goorden, Neeltje

2015-04-01

Decision making in disaster management requires fast access to reliable and relevant information. We believe that online information and services will become increasingly important in disaster management. Within the EU FP7 project RASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment and Spatialisation of Risk) an online platform is being developed for rapid multi-hazard risk analyses to support disaster management anywhere in the world. The platform will provide access to a plethora of GIS data that are relevant to risk assessment. It will also enable the user to run numerical flood models to simulate historical and newly defined flooding scenarios. The results of these models are maps of flood extent, flood depths and flow velocities. The RASOR platform will enable to overlay historical event flood maps with observations and Earth Observation (EO) imagery to fill in gaps and assess the accuracy of the flood models. New flooding scenarios can be defined by the user and simulated to investigate the potential impact of future floods. A series of flood models have been developed within RASOR for selected case study areas around the globe that are subject to very different flood hazards: • The city of Bandung in Indonesia, which is prone to fluvial flooding induced by heavy rainfall. The flood hazard is exacerbated by land subsidence. • The port of Cilacap on the south coast of Java, subject to tsunami hazard from submarine earthquakes in the Sunda trench. • The area south of city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, prone to coastal and/or riverine flooding. • The island of Santorini in Greece, which is subject to tsunamis induced by landslides. Flood models have been developed for each of these case studies using mostly EO data, augmented by local data where necessary. Particular use was made of the new TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement) product from the German Aerospace centre (DLR) and EADS Astrium. The presentation will describe the flood models and the

Floods

MedlinePlus

Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

Flooding

MedlinePlus

... flooding For communities, companies, or water and wastewater facilities: Flood Resilience Guide is your one-stop resource ... Zika Top of Page For water and wastewater facilities: For water and wastewater facilities : Suggested post-hurricane ...

Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

2017-12-01

A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

Physical parameters of Fluvisols on flooded and non-flooded terraces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kercheva, Milena; Sokołowska, Zofia; Hajnos, Mieczysław; Skic, Kamil; Shishkov, Toma

2017-01-01

The heterogeneity of soil physical properties of Fluvisols, lack of large pristine areas, and different moisture regimes on non-flooded and flooded terraces impede the possibility to find a soil profile which can serve as a baseline for estimating the impact of natural or anthropogenic factors on soil evolution. The aim of this study is to compare the pore size distribution of pristine Fluvisols on flooded and non-flooded terraces using the method of the soil water retention curve, mercury intrusion porosimetry, nitrogen adsorption isotherms, and water vapour sorption. The pore size distribution of humic horizons of pristine Fluvisols on the non-flooded terrace differs from pore size distribution of Fluvisols on the flooded terrace. The peaks of textural and structural pores are higher in the humic horizons under more humid conditions. The structural characteristics of subsoil horizons depend on soil texture and evolution stage. The peaks of textural pores at about 1 mm diminish with lowering of the soil organic content. Structureless horizons are characterized by uni-modal pore size distribution. Although the content of structural pores of the subsoil horizons of Fluvisols on the non-flooded terrace is low, these pores are represented by biopores, as the coefficient of filtration is moderately high. The difference between non-flooded and flooded profiles is well expressed by the available water storage, volume and mean radius of pores, obtained by mercury intrusion porosimetry and water desorption, which are higher in the surface horizons of frequently flooded Fluvisols.

Investigation of flood routing by a dynamic wave model in trapezoidal channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistyono, B. A.; Wiryanto, L. H.

2017-08-01

The problems of flood wave propagation, in bodies of waters, cause by intense rains or breaking of control structures, represent a great challenge in the mathematical modeling processes. This research concerns about the development and application of a mathematical model based on the Saint Venant's equations, to study the behavior of the propagation of a flood wave in trapezoidal channels. In these equations, the momentum equation transforms to partial differential equation which has two parameters related to cross-sectional area and discharge of the channel. These new formulas have been solved by using an explicit finite difference scheme. In computation procedure, after computing the discharge from the momentum equation, the cross-sectional area will be obtained from the continuity equation for a given point of channel. To evaluate the behavior of the control variables, several scenarios for the main channel as well as for flood waves are considered and different simulations are performed. The simulations demonstrate that for the same bed width, the peak discharge in trapezoidal channel smaller than in rectangular one at a specific distance along the channel length and so, that roughness coefficient and bed slope of the channel play a strong game on the behavior of the flood wave propagation.

Flood Risk in Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas: An Approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, F.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

The town of Motozintla de Mendoza (15o 22' N and 92o 15' W) is located southern Chiapas, Mexico, and it is highly exposed to flood hazards. This community has suffered the impact of two disaster events due to this natural hazard in less than ten years, the first one in 1998 and the second one in 2005. The objective of this research is to assess the level of flood risk in the community of Motozintla. The methodology consisted of four steps: (1) Identification of the level of flood hazard; (2) Vulnerability assessment considering weighted variables according to their level of incidence on the local risk conditions; (3) Preparation of risk matrices for each area exposed to floods; and 4) Cartographic representation and spatial analysis of the results. We obtained a Geographical Information System (GIS) map for each group of analyzed vulnerabilities (structural, public services, socio-economic, existing plans in case of contingencies, and risk perception) and one map associated to global vulnerability (overposing of all estimated vulnerabilities). These maps demonstrates that the local conditions of structural vulnerability have a high incidence in the generation of risk, differing from the lack of public basic services, which although unfavorable for the population, it is not a deciding factor for preserving life or housing. Another interesting result is that the lack of preparation of the community to face a disaster generates a higher risk level than the other analyzed socioeconomic conditions. The global vulnerability allowed us to determine with greater detail the flood risk levels in the community. Our results indicate that the area in Motozintla with the highest level of flood risk is located in the margins of the Xelajú river, particularly the region that was flooded in 2005, which is precisely the area where the rivers Xelajú, Allende and La Mina meet and the river flow increases. Unfortunately, the northeasters part of this zone had been populated by people

'Are you prepared?' Representations and management of floods in Lomanikoro, Rewa (Fiji).

PubMed

Nolet, Emilie

2016-10-01

The islands of Fiji, in the Western Pacific, are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards. Tropical storms and associated floods are recurring natural phenomena, but it has been regularly alleged that Fijians lack preparation, over-rely on state assistance in post-disaster situations or engage in risky behaviours that aggravate the negative impact of floods. Risk reduction strategies, which are now implemented by government authorities and international organisations, heavily promote the principle of 'community preparedness'. Both community awareness programmes and capacity-building programmes are conducted throughout the country in the most vulnerable communities. This paper analyses how the inhabitants of Lomanikoro village, in the low areas of the Rewa Delta, perceive and manage existing flood risks. It examines social and cultural factors that contribute to shape risk response locally-in particular, why villagers may be reluctant to adopt some recommended preparedness measures and resettle in higher, safer zones. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Changes In Tree Species In Riparian Zones Of Urban Streams May Have Effects On Restoration And Storm Water Control Efforts

EPA Science Inventory

A riparian zone is the land and vegetation within and directly adjacent to surface water ecosystems, such as lakes and streams. The vegetation in riparian zones provides ecosystem services (such as reducing flooding and bank erosion and reducing levels of pollutants in streams) ...

Sensitivity experiments of a regional climate model to the different convective schemes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armand J, K. M.

2017-12-01

In this study, version 4 of the regional climate model (RegCM4) is used to perform 6 years simulation including one year for spin-up (from January 2001 to December 2006) over Central Africa using four convective schemes: The Emmanuel scheme (MIT), the Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schulbert closure assumption (GAS), the Grell scheme with Fritsch-Chappell closure assumption (GFC) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme (Kuo). We have investigated the ability of the model to simulate precipitation, surface temperature, wind and aerosols optical depth. Emphasis in the model results were made in December-January-February (DJF) and July-August-September (JAS) periods. Two subregions have been identified for more specific analysis namely: zone 1 which corresponds to the sahel region mainly classified as desert and steppe and zone 2 which is a region spanning the tropical rain forest and is characterised by a bimodal rain regime. We found that regardless of periods or simulated parameters, MIT scheme generally has a tendency to overestimate. The GAS scheme is more suitable in simulating the aforementioned parameters, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitations everywhere over the study domain irrespective of the season. In JAS, model results are similar in the representation of regional wind circulation. Apart from the MIT scheme, all the convective schemes give the same trends in aerosols optical depth simulations. Additional experiment reveals that the use of BATS instead of Zeng scheme to calculate ocean flux appears to improve the quality of the model simulations.

Extreme flood sensitivity to snow and forest harvest, western Cascades, Oregon, United States

Treesearch

Julia A. Jones; Reed M. Perkins

2010-01-01

We examined the effects of snow, event size, basin size, and forest harvest on floods using >1000 peak discharge events from 1953 to 2006 from three small 2), paired-watershed forest-harvest experiments and six large (60-600 km2) basins spanning the transient (400-800 m) and seasonal (>800 m) snow zones in the...

Pakistan Flooding

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-16

article title:  Flooding in Pakistan     View Larger Image In late July 2010, flooding caused by heavy monsoon rains began in several regions of Pakistan, ... river is 23 kilometers (14 miles) wide or more in spots, and flooding in much of the surrounding region, particularly in the Larkana ...

Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, B.; Aerts, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Baldi, M.; Becker, A.; Bichet, A.; Blöschl, G.; Bouwer, L. M.; Brauer, A.; Cioffi, F.; Delgado, J. M.; Gocht, M.; Guzzetti, F.; Harrigan, S.; Hirschboeck, K.; Kilsby, C.; Kron, W.; Kwon, H.-H.; Lall, U.; Merz, R.; Nissen, K.; Salvatti, P.; Swierczynski, T.; Ulbrich, U.; Viglione, A.; Ward, P. J.; Weiler, M.; Wilhelm, B.; Nied, M.

2014-07-01

Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research.

Validating high-resolution California coastal flood modeling with Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, A.

2015-12-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling scheme used to predict coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storms influenced by climate change, currently in use in central California and in development for Southern California (Pt. Conception to the Mexican border). Using a framework of circulation, wave, analytical, and Bayesian models at different geographic scales, high-resolution results are translated as relevant hazards projections at the local scale that include flooding, wave heights, coastal erosion, shoreline change, and cliff failures. Ready access to accurate, high-resolution coastal flooding data is critical for further validation and refinement of CoSMoS and improved coastal hazard projections. High-resolution Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) provides an exceptional data source as appropriately-timed flights during extreme tides or storms provide a geographically-extensive method for determining areas of inundation and flooding extent along expanses of complex and varying coastline. Landward flood extents are numerically identified via edge-detection in imagery from single flights, and can also be ascertained via change detection using additional flights and imagery collected during average wave/tide conditions. The extracted flooding positions are compared against CoSMoS results for similar tide, water level, and storm-intensity conditions, allowing for robust testing and validation of CoSMoS and providing essential feedback for supporting regional and local model improvement.

Delineation of sediments below flood basalts by joint inversion of seismic and magnetotelluric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manglik, A.; Verma, Saurabh K.

A one-dimensional joint-inversion (JI) scheme considering seismic reflection and refraction, and MT data is developed. Its efficacy to resolve low velocity conducting sediments below high velocity resistive flood basalts is tested for a representative geological model considering noisy, incomplete data. The JI is found to provide improved results in comparison to those obtained by individual seismic and MT inversions.

Sea-level Rise Increases the Frequency of Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Aghakouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Feldman, D.; Sweet, W.; Matthew, R.; Luke, A.

2015-12-01

The global warming-drivensea-level rise (SLR) posesa serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. The rate of SLR is accelerated in recent decades and is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gas emissions. Over the 20th century, an increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has been reported due to the reduced gap between tidal datum and flood stage. Nuisance flooding (NF), however non-destructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take the projected SLR under the least and the most extreme representative concentration pathways (e.gRCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to estimate the increase in NF in the near- (2030) and mid-term (2050) future. The results suggest that projected SLR will cause up to two-fold more frequent NF by 2050, compared with the 20th century. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks especially in rapidly urbanized coastal regions.

Beyond 'flood hotspots': Modelling emergency service accessibility during flooding in York, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Wilby, Robert L.; Green, Daniel; Herring, Zara

2017-03-01

This paper describes the development of a method that couples flood modelling with network analysis to evaluate the accessibility of city districts by emergency responders during flood events. We integrate numerical modelling of flood inundation with geographical analysis of service areas for the Ambulance Service and the Fire & Rescue Service. The method was demonstrated for two flood events in the City of York, UK to assess the vulnerability of care homes and sheltered accommodation. We determine the feasibility of emergency services gaining access within the statutory 8- and 10-min targets for high-priority, life-threatening incidents 75% of the time, during flood episodes. A hydrodynamic flood inundation model (FloodMap) simulates the 2014 pluvial and 2015 fluvial flood events. Predicted floods (with depth >25 cm and areas >100 m2) were overlain on the road network to identify sites with potentially restricted access. Accessibility of the city to emergency responders during flooding was quantified and mapped using; (i) spatial coverage from individual emergency nodes within the legislated timeframes, and; (ii) response times from individual emergency service nodes to vulnerable care homes and sheltered accommodation under flood and non-flood conditions. Results show that, during the 2015 fluvial flood, the area covered by two of the three Fire & Rescue Service stations reduced by 14% and 39% respectively, while the remaining station needed to increase its coverage by 39%. This amounts to an overall reduction of 6% and 20% for modelled and observed floods respectively. During the 2014 surface water flood, 7 out of 22 care homes (32%) and 15 out of 43 sheltered accommodation nodes (35%) had modelled response times above the 8-min threshold from any Ambulance station. Overall, modelled surface water flooding has a larger spatial footprint than fluvial flood events. Hence, accessibility of emergency services may be impacted differently depending on flood mechanism

Quantifying Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Mapping Using Streamflow Ensembles and Multiple Hydraulic Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseiny, S. M. H.; Zarzar, C.; Gomez, M.; Siddique, R.; Smith, V.; Mejia, A.; Demir, I.

2016-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) provides a platform for operationalize nationwide flood inundation forecasting and mapping. The ability to model flood inundation on a national scale will provide invaluable information to decision makers and local emergency officials. Often, forecast products use deterministic model output to provide a visual representation of a single inundation scenario, which is subject to uncertainty from various sources. While this provides a straightforward representation of the potential inundation, the inherent uncertainty associated with the model output should be considered to optimize this tool for decision making support. The goal of this study is to produce ensembles of future flood inundation conditions (i.e. extent, depth, and velocity) to spatially quantify and visually assess uncertainties associated with the predicted flood inundation maps. The setting for this study is located in a highly urbanized watershed along the Darby Creek in Pennsylvania. A forecasting framework coupling the NWM with multiple hydraulic models was developed to produce a suite ensembles of future flood inundation predictions. Time lagged ensembles from the NWM short range forecasts were used to account for uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecasts. The forecasts from the NWM were input to iRIC and HEC-RAS two-dimensional software packages, from which water extent, depth, and flow velocity were output. Quantifying the agreement between output ensembles for each forecast grid provided the uncertainty metrics for predicted flood water inundation extent, depth, and flow velocity. For visualization, a series of flood maps that display flood extent, water depth, and flow velocity along with the underlying uncertainty associated with each of the forecasted variables were produced. The results from this study demonstrate the potential to incorporate and visualize model uncertainties in flood inundation maps in order to identify the high flood risk zones.

A framework for the selection and ensemble development of flood vulnerability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Martina, Mario

2017-04-01

Effective understanding and management of flood risk requires comprehensive risk assessment studies that consider not only the hazard component, but also the impacts that the phenomena may have on the built environment, economy and society. This integrated approach has gained importance over recent decades, and with it so has the scientific attention given to flood vulnerability models describing the relationships between flood intensity metrics and damage to physical assets, also known as flood loss models. Despite considerable progress in this field, many challenges persist. Flood damage mechanisms are complex and depend on multiple variables, which can have different degrees of importance depending on the application setting. In addition, data required for the development and validation of such models tend to be scarce, particularly in data poor regions. These issues are reflected in the large amount of flood vulnerability models that are available in the literature today, as well as in their high heterogeneity: they are built with different modelling approaches, in different geographic contexts, utilizing different explanatory variables, and with varying levels of complexity. Notwithstanding recent developments in this area, uncertainty remains high, and large disparities exist among models. For these reasons, identifying which model or models, given their properties, are appropriate for a given context is not straightforward. In the present study, we propose a framework that guides the structured selection of flood vulnerability models and enables ranking them according to their suitability for a certain application, based on expert judgement. The approach takes advantage of current state of the art and most up-to-date knowledge on flood vulnerability processes. Given the heterogeneity and uncertainty currently present in flood vulnerability models, we propose the use of a model ensemble. With this in mind, the proposed approach is based on a weighting scheme

Flooding and Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

2011-01-01

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

Glacier generated floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Fountain, A.G.; ,

1997-01-01

Destructive floods result from drainage of glacier-dammed lakes and sudden release of water stored within glaciers. There is a good basis - both empirical and theoretical - for predicting the magnitude of floods from ice-dammed lakes, although some aspects of flood initiation need to be better understood. In contrast, an understanding of floods resulting from release of internally stored water remains elusive, owing to lack of knowledge of how and where water is stored and to inadequate understanding of the complex physics of the temporally and spatially variable subglacial drainage system.Destructive floods result from drainage of glacier-dammed lakes and sudden release of water stored within glaciers. There is a good basis - both empirical and theoretical - for predicting the magnitude of floods from ice-dammed lakes, although some aspects of flood initiation need to be better understood. In contrast, an understanding of floods resulting from release of internally stored water remains elusive, owing to lack of knowledge of how and where water is stored and to inadequate understanding of the complex physics of the temporally and spatially variable subglacial drainage system.

The rainfall-triggered landslide and flash-flood disaster in northern Venezuela, December 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Matthew C.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Eaton, L.S.; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2001-01-01

Rainstorms in December 1999 induced thousands of landslides along the northern slopes of the Cordillera de la Costa mountain range principally in the state of Vargas, Venezuela. Rainfall accumulation of 293 millimeters during the first 2 weeks ofDecember was followed by an additional 911 millimeters of rainfall on December 14 through 16. The landslides and floods inundated coastal communities resulting in a catastrophic death toll estimated at between 15,000 and 30,000 people. Debris flow damage to houses, buildings, and infrastructure in the narrow coastal zone was severe. Flash floods on alluvial fans at the mouths of rivers draining the coastal mountain range also contributed to the general destruction. In time scales spanning decades to centuries, the alluvial fans along this Caribbean coastline are areas of high geomorphic activity. Because most of the coastal zone in Vargas consists of steep mountain fronts that rise directly from the Caribbean Sea, the alluvial fans provide the only relatively flat areas upon which to build. Rebuilding and reoccupation of these areas requires careful determination of hazard zones to avoid future loss of life and property. A limited assessment of the distribution and character of landslides is currently in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources.

Evaluating the placement and performance of nature based measures for managing flood runoff in intensively farmed landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Mark; Quinn, Paul; Hewett, Caspar; Stutter, Marc

2017-04-01

Over the past decade economic losses from fluvial floods have greatly increased and it is becoming less viable to use traditional measures for managing flooding solely. This has given rise to increasing interest in alternative, nature based solutions (NBS) for reducing flood risk that aim to manage runoff at the catchment source and deliver multiple benefits. In many cases these measures need to work with current agricultural practices. Intensive agriculture often results in increases in local runoff rates, water quality issues, soil erosion/loss and local flooding problems. However, there is potential for agriculture to play a part in reducing flood risk. This requires knowledge on the effectiveness of NBS at varying scales and tools to communicate the risk of runoff associated with farming. This paper assesses the placement, management and effectiveness of a selection of nature-based measures in the rural landscape. Measures which disconnect overland flow pathways and improve soil infiltration are discussed. Case study examples are presented from the UK where a large number of nature-based measures have been constructed as part of flood protection schemes in catchment scales varying from 50 ha to 25 km2. Practical tools to help locate measures in agricultural landscapes are highlighted including the Floods and Agriculture Risk Matrix (FARM), an interactive communication/visualization tool and FARMPLOT, a GIS mapping tool. These have been used to promote such measures, by showing how and where temporary ponded areas can be located to reduce flood and erosion risk whilst minimising disruption to farming practices. In most cases land managers prefer small ( 100-1000m3) temporary ponding areas which fill during moderate to large storm events since they incur minimal loss of land. They also provide greater resillience to multi-day storm events, as they are designed to drain over 1-2 days and therefore allow for storage capacity for proceeding events. However, the

44 CFR 60.3 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... minimize or eliminate infiltration of flood waters into the systems; and (6) Require within flood-prone... infiltration of flood waters into the systems and discharges from the systems into flood waters and (ii) onsite...

44 CFR 60.3 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... minimize or eliminate infiltration of flood waters into the systems; and (6) Require within flood-prone... infiltration of flood waters into the systems and discharges from the systems into flood waters and (ii) onsite...

44 CFR 60.3 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... minimize or eliminate infiltration of flood waters into the systems; and (6) Require within flood-prone... infiltration of flood waters into the systems and discharges from the systems into flood waters and (ii) onsite...

Economic impacts of urban flooding in South Florida: Potential consequences of managing groundwater to prevent salt water intrusion.

PubMed

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Engel, Vic; Martinez, Chris; Mirchi, Ali; Watkins, David; Sukop, Michael C; Hughes, Joseph D

2018-04-15

High-value urban zones in coastal South Florida are considered particularly vulnerable to salt water intrusion into the groundwater-based, public water supplies caused by sea level rise (SLR) in combination with the low topography, existing high water table, and permeable karst substrate. Managers in the region closely regulate water depths in the extensive South Florida canal network to control closely coupled groundwater levels and thereby reduce the risk of saltwater intrusion into the karst aquifer. Potential SLR adaptation strategies developed by local managers suggest canal and groundwater levels may have to be increased over time to prevent the increased salt water intrusion risk to groundwater resources. However, higher canal and groundwater levels cause the loss of unsaturated zone storage and lead to an increased risk of inland flooding when the recharge from rainfall exceeds the capacity of the unsaturated zone to absorb it and the water table reaches the surface. Consequently, higher canal and groundwater levels are also associated with increased risk of economic losses, especially during the annual wet seasons. To help water managers and urban planners in this region better understand this trade-off, this study models the relationships between flood insurance claims and groundwater levels in Miami-Dade County. Via regression analyses, we relate the incurred number of monthly flood claims in 16 Miami-Dade County watersheds to monthly groundwater levels over the period from 1996 to 2010. We utilize these estimated statistical relationships to further illustrate various monthly flood loss scenarios that could plausibly result, thereby providing an economic quantification of a "too much water" trade-off. Importantly, this understanding is the first of its kind in South Florida and is exceedingly useful for regional-scale hydro-economic optimization models analyzing trade-offs associated with high water levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights

PoliRisposta: Overcoming present limits of flood damage data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinari, Daniela; Mazuran, Mirjana; Arias, Carolina; Minucci, Guido; Atun, Funda; Ardagna, Danilo

2014-05-01

Already in the Fifties, US researchers identified the main weakness of flood records in the inadequacy of flood damage data. The recent seminar "Flood damage survey and assessment: which priorities for future research and practice?", held at Politecnico di Milano on 24-25 January 2012, highlighted that poor and insufficient flood loss data is still a matter of concern. In detail, participants concluded that the lack of damage data and of innovative approaches for their analysis (e.g. multivariate approaches, data mining) is one of the main causes of the shortcomings of present risk assessment tools; among them: the uncertainty of flood risk predictions and the limited capacity of estimating damages apart from the direct ones to residential sector (i.e. indirect/intangible damages). On the other hand, flood damage data collected in the aftermath of a disastrous event can support a variety of actions besides the validation/definition of damage models: the identification of priorities for intervention during emergencies, the creation of complete event scenarios on the bases of which understating the fragilities of the flooded areas as well as defining compensation schemes. However, few efforts have been addressed so far on the improvement of the way in which data are presently collected and stored. The aim of this presentation is to discuss first results of Poli-RISPOSTA (stRumentI per la protezione civile a Supporto delle POpolazioni nel poST Alluvione), a research project founded by Politecnico di Milano which is just intended to develop tools and procedures for the collection and storage of high quality, consistent and reliable flood damage data. In detail, specific objectives of Poli-RISPOSTA are: - Develop an operational procedure for collecting, storing and analyzing all damage data, in the aftermath of flood event, including: damage to infrastructures and public facilities, damage suffered by citizens and their dwellings and goods, and to economic activities

Has dyke development in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta shifted flood hazard downstream?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Fujii, Hideto; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

2017-08-01

the only and not the most important driver of the observed changes. It has to be noted that changes in tidal levels caused by sea level rise in combination with the widely observed land subsidence and the temporal coincidence of high water levels and spring tides have even larger impacts. It is recommended to develop flood risk management strategies using the high-dyke areas as retention zones to mitigate the flood hazard downstream.

floodX: urban flash flood experiments monitored with conventional and alternative sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Dicht, Simon; Leitão, João P.

2017-09-01

The data sets described in this paper provide a basis for developing and testing new methods for monitoring and modelling urban pluvial flash floods. Pluvial flash floods are a growing hazard to property and inhabitants' well-being in urban areas. However, the lack of appropriate data collection methods is often cited as an impediment for reliable flood modelling, thereby hindering the improvement of flood risk mapping and early warning systems. The potential of surveillance infrastructure and social media is starting to draw attention for this purpose. In the floodX project, 22 controlled urban flash floods were generated in a flood response training facility and monitored with state-of-the-art sensors as well as standard surveillance cameras. With these data, it is possible to explore the use of video data and computer vision for urban flood monitoring and modelling. The floodX project stands out as the largest documented flood experiment of its kind, providing both conventional measurements and video data in parallel and at high temporal resolution. The data set used in this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.830513.

An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

2016-06-01

The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301-2012) and climatic factors - the case of Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera-Escoda, A.; Llasat, M. C.

2015-01-01

Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer-early autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation patterns, the high troposphere and the

Flood study of the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown, New Hampshire, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.

2010-01-01

On May 15, 2006, a breach in the riverbank caused an avulsion in the Suncook River in Epsom, NH. The breach in the riverbank and subsequent avulsion changed the established flood zones along the Suncook River; therefore, a new flood study was needed to reflect this change and aid in flood recovery and restoration. For this flood study, the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses for the Suncook River were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This report presents water-surface elevations and profiles determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model, also known as HEC-RAS. Steady-state water-surface profiles were developed for the Suncook River from its confluence with the Merrimack River in the Village of Suncook (in Allenstown and Pembroke, NH) to the upstream corporate limit of the town of Epsom, NH (approximately 15.9 river miles). Floods of magnitudes that are expected to be equaled or exceeded once on the average during any 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, or 500-year period (recurrence interval) were modeled using HEC-RAS. These flood events are referred to as the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and have a 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent chance, respectively, of being equaled or exceeded during any year. The 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood events are important for flood-plain management, determination of flood-insurance rates, and design of structures such as bridges and culverts. The analyses in this study reflect flooding potentials that are based on existing conditions in the communities of Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown at the time of completion of this study (2009). Changes in the 100-year recurrence-interval flood elevation from the 1979 flood study were typically less than 2 feet with the exception of a location 900 feet upstream from the avulsion that, because of backwater from the dams in the

Shoreline changes and Coastal Flooding impacts: South Gujarat coast (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parihar, S. B.

2016-12-01

South Gujarat coast (India) is experiencing increased coastal inundation and erosion caused by sea-level rise affecting the population, infrastructure, and environment. The area falls under low elevation coastal zone (LEZ) and its topography of the area is also making coast highly susceptible to flooding, especially at high tides and during the rainy season. As part of studies on shoreline changes field trip carried on the coastal taluka's of South Gujarat coast i.e. Surat, Navsari and Valsad shows various temporal changes is taking place at coastal belt. There are ample of studies on coastal dynamics and impacts. The study focus on spatial temporal analysis shows the vulnerable zones covering various physical elements at risk. These coastal areas are attractive in nature for all kind of economic development and growth because of availability of the water & fertile land for house hold use, fishing and transportation. On the contrary, South Gujarat coast being tectonically active; makes this region high vulnerable for any kind of infrastructure development. The region had also witnessed loss of life and property, disruptions to transport & power and incidences of epidemics during the floods of 2006 in Surat. Coastal flooding would, under these scenarios, threaten region that are home of 370,000 approx (Census, 2011) people in seven coastal taluka's of Surat, Navsari and Valsad district. Among the people residing in the region, the most vulnerable communities are fishermen, farmer and industrial labours. The wide range of infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, schools, power plants, industries and port will also be at risk. Shoreline changes are inevitably changing the characteristics of south Gujarat coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially adverse impacts on environment and human settlements. Key words: sea level rise, LEZ, vulnerable, erosion, inundation, spatial temporal analysis, landuse changes.

Brine Migration from a Flooded Salt Mine in the Genesee Valley, Livingston County, New York: Geochemical Modeling and Simulation of Variable-Density Flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Misut, Paul E.; Langevin, Christian D.; Parkhurst, David L.

2009-01-01

The Retsof salt mine in upstate New York was flooded from 1994 to 1996 after two roof collapses created rubble chimneys in overlying bedrock that intersected a confined aquifer in glacial sediments. The mine now contains about 60 billion liters of saturated halite brine that is slowly being displaced as the weight of overlying sediments causes the mine cavity to close, a process that could last several hundred years. Saline water was detected in the confined aquifer in 2002, and a brine-mitigation project that includes pumping followed by onsite desalination was implemented in 2006 to prevent further migration of saline water from the collapse area. A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey using geochemical and variable-density flow modeling to determine sources of salinity in the confined aquifer and to assess (1) processes that control movement and mixing of waters in the collapse area, (2) the effect of pumping on salinity, and (3) the potential for anhydrite dissolution and subsequent land subsidence resulting from mixing of waters induced by pumping. The primary source of salinity in the collapse area is halite brine that was displaced from the flooded mine and transported upward by advection and dispersion through the rubble chimneys and surrounding deformation zone. Geochemical and variable-density modeling indicate that salinity in the upper part of the collapse area is partly derived from inflow of saline water from bedrock fracture zones during water-level recovery (January 1996 through August 2006). The lateral diversion of brine into bedrock fracture zones promoted the upward migration of mine water through mixing with lower density waters. The relative contributions of mine water, bedrock water, and aquifer water to the observed salinity profile within the collapse area are controlled by the rates of flow to and from bedrock fracture zones. Variable-density simulations of water-level recovery indicate that saline water has probably not

Uncertainty in flood forecasting: A distributed modeling approach in a sparse data catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; McPhee, James; Vargas, Ximena

2012-09-01

Data scarcity has traditionally precluded the application of advanced hydrologic techniques in developing countries. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a flood forecasting scheme in a sparsely monitored catchment based on distributed hydrologic modeling, discharge assimilation, and numerical weather predictions with explicit validation uncertainty analysis. For the hydrologic component of our framework, we apply TopNet to the Cautin River basin, located in southern Chile, using a fully distributed a priori parameterization based on both literature-suggested values and data gathered during field campaigns. Results obtained from this step indicate that the incremental effort spent in measuring directly a set of model parameters was insufficient to represent adequately the most relevant hydrologic processes related to spatiotemporal runoff patterns. Subsequent uncertainty validation performed over a six month ensemble simulation shows that streamflow uncertainty is better represented during flood events, due to both the increase of state perturbation introduced by rainfall and the flood-oriented calibration strategy adopted here. Results from different assimilation configurations suggest that the upper part of the basin is the major source of uncertainty in hydrologic process representation and hint at the usefulness of interpreting assimilation results in terms of model input and parameterization inadequacy. Furthermore, in this case study the violation of Markovian state properties by the Ensemble Kalman filter did affect the numerical results, showing that an explicit treatment of the time delay between the generation of surface runoff and the arrival at the basin outlet is required in the assimilation scheme. Peak flow forecasting results demonstrate that there is a major problem with the Weather Research and Forecasting model outputs, which systematically overestimate precipitation over the catchment. A final analysis performed for a large flooding

An Optimized Handover Scheme with Movement Trend Awareness for Body Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Wen; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Ji, Lianying; Wong, Wai-Choong

2013-01-01

When a body sensor network (BSN) that is linked to the backbone via a wireless network interface moves from one coverage zone to another, a handover is required to maintain network connectivity. This paper presents an optimized handover scheme with movement trend awareness for BSNs. The proposed scheme predicts the future position of a BSN user using the movement trend extracted from the historical position, and adjusts the handover decision accordingly. Handover initiation time is optimized when the unnecessary handover rate is estimated to meet the requirement and the outage probability is minimized. The proposed handover scheme is simulated in a BSN deployment area in a hospital environment in UK. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme reduces the outage probability by 22% as compared with the existing hysteresis-based handover scheme under the constraint of acceptable handover rate. PMID:23736852

A three-dimensional algebraic grid generation scheme for gas turbine combustors with inclined slots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. L.; Cline, M. C.; Chen, R.; Chang, Y. L.

1993-01-01

A 3D algebraic grid generation scheme is presented for generating the grid points inside gas turbine combustors with inclined slots. The scheme is based on the 2D transfinite interpolation method. Since the scheme is a 2D approach, it is very efficient and can easily be extended to gas turbine combustors with either dilution hole or slot configurations. To demonstrate the feasibility and the usefulness of the technique, a numerical study of the quick-quench/lean-combustion (QQ/LC) zones of a staged turbine combustor is given. Preliminary results illustrate some of the major features of the flow and temperature fields in the QQ/LC zones. Formation of co- and counter-rotating bulk flow and shape temperature fields can be observed clearly, and the resulting patterns are consistent with experimental observations typical of the confined slanted jet-in-cross flow. Numerical solutions show the method to be an efficient and reliable tool for generating computational grids for analyzing gas turbine combustors with slanted slots.

Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

2015-12-01

Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage

Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

2017-04-01

The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

Quasi-continuous stochastic simulation framework for flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustakis, Yiannis; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

Typically, flood modelling in the context of everyday engineering practices is addressed through event-based deterministic tools, e.g., the well-known SCS-CN method. A major shortcoming of such approaches is the ignorance of uncertainty, which is associated with the variability of soil moisture conditions and the variability of rainfall during the storm event.In event-based modeling, the sole expression of uncertainty is the return period of the design storm, which is assumed to represent the acceptable risk of all output quantities (flood volume, peak discharge, etc.). On the other hand, the varying antecedent soil moisture conditions across the basin are represented by means of scenarios (e.g., the three AMC types by SCS),while the temporal distribution of rainfall is represented through standard deterministic patterns (e.g., the alternative blocks method). In order to address these major inconsistencies,simultaneously preserving the simplicity and parsimony of the SCS-CN method, we have developed a quasi-continuous stochastic simulation approach, comprising the following steps: (1) generation of synthetic daily rainfall time series; (2) update of potential maximum soil moisture retention, on the basis of accumulated five-day rainfall; (3) estimation of daily runoff through the SCS-CN formula, using as inputs the daily rainfall and the updated value of soil moisture retention;(4) selection of extreme events and application of the standard SCS-CN procedure for each specific event, on the basis of synthetic rainfall.This scheme requires the use of two stochastic modelling components, namely the CastaliaR model, for the generation of synthetic daily data, and the HyetosMinute model, for the disaggregation of daily rainfall to finer temporal scales. Outcomes of this approach are a large number of synthetic flood events, allowing for expressing the design variables in statistical terms and thus properly evaluating the flood risk.

Flood Resilient Systems and their Application for Flood Resilient Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manojlovic, N.; Gabalda, V.; Antanaskovic, D.; Gershovich, I.; Pasche, E.

2012-04-01

Following the paradigm shift in flood management from traditional to more integrated approaches, and considering the uncertainties of future development due to drivers such as climate change, one of the main emerging tasks of flood managers becomes the development of (flood) resilient cities. It can be achieved by application of non-structural - flood resilience measures, summarised in the 4As: assistance, alleviation, awareness and avoidance (FIAC, 2007). As a part of this strategy, the key aspect of development of resilient cities - resilient built environment can be reached by efficient application of Flood Resilience Technology (FReT) and its meaningful combination into flood resilient systems (FRS). FRS are given as [an interconnecting network of FReT which facilitates resilience (including both restorative and adaptive capacity) to flooding, addressing physical and social systems and considering different flood typologies] (SMARTeST, http://www.floodresilience.eu/). Applying the system approach (e.g. Zevenbergen, 2008), FRS can be developed at different scales from the building to the city level. Still, a matter of research is a method to define and systematise different FRS crossing those scales. Further, the decision on which resilient system is to be applied for the given conditions and given scale is a complex task, calling for utilisation of decision support tools. This process of decision-making should follow the steps of flood risk assessment (1) and development of a flood resilience plan (2) (Manojlovic et al, 2009). The key problem in (2) is how to match the input parameters that describe physical&social system and flood typology to the appropriate flood resilient system. Additionally, an open issue is how to integrate the advances in FReT and findings on its efficiency into decision support tools. This paper presents a way to define, systematise and make decisions on FRS at different scales of an urban system developed within the 7th FP Project

On-Farm, Almond Orchard Flooding as a Viable Aquifer Recharge Alternative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, C.; Nico, P. S.; Wu, Y.; Newman, G. A.; Conrad, M. E.; Dahlke, H. E.

2017-12-01

-uniform infiltration (fast paths) and water recharge well below the root zone to a depth below 15m (45ft) at both study sites. These results advocate the use of on-farm flooding as a viable option for groundwater recharge of local aquifers and its usefulness given existing infrastructure and potential to divert water as it heads to the delta/ocean.

The ELSA - Flood - Stack: A reconstruction from the laminated sediments of Eifel Maar structures during the last 60 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunck, Heiko; Sirocko, Frank; Albert, Johannes

2016-04-01

Lake sediments are excellent climate archives and can be used for reconstructions of past precipitation and flood events. However, until now, there is no continous flood record for the entire last 60 000 years for Central Europe. This study reconstructs the history of the main flood events in central Europe from event layers in sediment cores from Holocene Eifel maar lakes and Pleistocene dry maar structures. The cores were drilled in the Eifel region of western Germany. All maars have an inflow by a local stream and the largest flood events and associated suspension injections are nicely visible in the sediment. The specific sedimentation conditions explain the unique possibility to detect all 18 Greenland Interstadials in the total carbon concentration of the analysed maars. The allocation of the core material to all Greenland Interstadials and Stadials enables the exact climatic interpretation of the flood frequency. The stratigraphical concept leads to a classification of Landscape Evolution Zones in the Eifel region, which reconstruct the vegetation and the climate change (Sirocko et al., 2015). This classification is used to discuss the flood event succession concerning environmental changes. To study the past flood events in detail, 10 cm long thin sections were sedimentological and geochemical analysed to distinguish flood layers from turbidites and slumps. Turbidites have a continuous grain size gradation; the grains size profile of flood events is in contrast characterized by several grain size maxima over the entire layer thickness. A flood event over several days shows numerous peaks of intense discharge, which lead to a discontinuous grain size gradient. As a consequence, 233 flood layers over 7.5 mm thickness were detected. The main flood stages are from: 0 - 4000, 11 500 - 17 500, 23 000 - 24 000, 29 000 - 35 000 and 44 000 - 44 500 b2k (Brunck et al., 2015). Our time-series from the Eifel represents the first highly-resolved chronology for flood

Flood Risk Management in Iowa through an Integrated Flood Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, Ibrahim; Krajewski, Witold

2013-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 1100 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert

Understanding flood risk sensitivity and uncertainty in a subcatchment of the Thames River (United Kingdom)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theofanidi, Sofia; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Clark, Joanna

2017-04-01

Floods are a global threat to social, economic and environmental development and there is a likelihood, that they could occur more frequently in the future due to climatic change. The severity of their impacts, which can last for years, has led to the urgent need for local communities and national authorities to develop flood warning systems for a better flood preparedness and emergency response. The flood warning systems often rely on hydrological forecasting tools to predict the hydrological response of a watershed before or during a flood event. Hydrological models have been substantially upgraded since the first use of hydrographs and the use of simple conceptual models. Hydrodynamic and hydraulic routing enables the spatial and temporal prediction of flow rates (peak discharges) and water levels. Moreover, the hydrodynamic modeling in 2D permits the estimation of the flood inundation area. This can be particularly useful because the flood zones can provide essential information about the flood risk and the flood damage. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic model which can simulate water levels and river flows in open channel conditions. The model can incorporate the effect of several river structures in the flood modeling process, such as the existence of bridges and weirs. The flood routing method is based on the solution of continuity and energy momentum equations. In addition, the floodplain inundation modeling which is based on the solution of shallow water equations along the channel's banks, will be used for the mapping of flood extent. A GIS interface will serve as a database, including high resolution topography, vector layers of river network, gauging stations, land use and land cover, geology and soil information. The flood frequency analysis, together with historical records on flood warnings, will enable the understanding on the flow regimes and the selection of particular flood events for modeling. One dimensional and two dimensional simulations

Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk

2016-04-01

Recently, the needs of people are growing for a more safety life and secure homeland from unexpected natural disasters. Flood damages have been recorded every year and those damages are greater than the annual average of 2 trillion won since 2000 in Korea. It has been increased in casualties and property damages due to flooding caused by hydrometeorlogical extremes according to climate change. Although the importance of flooding situation is emerging rapidly, studies related to development of integrated management system for reducing floods are insufficient in Korea. In addition, it is difficult to effectively reduce floods without developing integrated operation system taking into account of sewage pipe network configuration with the river level. Since the floods result in increasing damages to infrastructure, as well as life and property, structural and non-structural measures should be urgently established in order to effectively reduce the flood. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting for supporting synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information in Korea. Keywords: Flooding, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ011686022015)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

Assessment of Short Term Flood Operation Strategies Using Numerical Weather Prediction Data in YUVACΙK DAM Reservoir, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, G.; Yavuz, O.; Sensoy, A.; Sorman, A.; Akgun, T.; Gezgin, T.

2011-12-01

Yuvacik Dam Reservoir Basin, located in the Marmara region of Turkey with 248 km2 drainage area, has steep topography, mild and rainy climate thus induces high flood potential with fast flow response, especially to early spring and fall precipitation events. Moreover, the basin provides considerable snowmelt contribution to the streamflow during melt season since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. The long term strategies are based on supplying annual demand of 142 hm3 water despite a relatively small reservoir capacity of 51 hm3. This situation makes short term release decisions as the challenging task regarding the constrained downstream safe channel capacity especially in times of floods. Providing the demand of 1.5 million populated city of Kocaeli is the highest priority issue in terms of reservoir management but risk optimization is also required due to flood regulation. Although, the spillway capacity is 1560 m3/s, the maximum amount of water to be released is set as 100 m3/s by the regional water authority taking into consideration the downstream channel capacity which passes through industrial region of the city. The reservoir is a controlled one and it is possible to hold back the 15 hm3 additional water by keeping the gates closed. Flood regulation is set to achieve the maximum possible flood attenuation by using the full flood-control zone capacity in the reservoir before making releases in excess of the downstream safe-channel capacity. However, the operators still need to exceed flood regulation zones to take precautions for drought summer periods in order to supply water without any shortage that increases the risk in times of flood. Regarding to this circumstances, a hydrological model integrated reservoir modeling system, is applied to account for the physical behavior of the system. Hence, this reservoir modeling is carried out to analyze both previous decisions and also the future scenarios as a decision support tool for operators. In the

Effects of salinity and flooding on seedlings of cabbage palm (Sabal palmetto).

PubMed

Perry, L; Williams, K

1996-03-01

Sabal palmetto (Walt.) Lodd. ex Schultes (cabbage palm) dominates the coastal limit of many forests in North Florida and Georgia, United States. Changes in saltwater flooding due to sea level rise have been credicted with pushing the coastal limit of cabbage palms inland, eliminating regeneration before causing death of mature trees. Localized freshwater discharge along the coast causes different forest stands to experience tidal flooding with waters that differ in salinity. To elucidate the effect of such variation on regeneration failure under tidal flooding, we examined relative effects of flooding and salinity on the performance of cabbage palm seedlings. We examined the relationship between seedling establishment and degree of tidal inundation in the field, compared the ability of seedlings to withstand tidal flooding at two coastal sites that differed in tidal water salinity, and investigated the physiological responses of cabbage palm seedlings to salinity and flooding in a factorial greenhouse experiment. Seedling survival was inversely correlated with depth and frequency of tidal flooding. Survival of seedlings at a coastal site flooded by waters low in salinity [c. 3 parts per thousand (ppt)] was greater than that at a site flooded by waters higher in salinity (up to 23 ppt). Greenhouse experiments revealed that leaves of seedlings in pots flushed twice daily with salt solutions of 0 ppt and 8 ppt exhibited little difference in midmorning net CO 2 assimilation rates; those flushed with solutions of 15 ppt and 22 ppt, in contrast, had such low rates that they could not be detected. Net CO 2 assimilation rates also declined with increasing salinity for seedlings in pots that were continuously inundated. Continuous root zone inundation appeared to ameliorate effects of salinity on photosynthesis, presumably due to increased salt concentrations and possibly water deficits in periodically flushed pots. Such problems associated with periodic flushing by salt

Hydro-Meteocean Nature of some Extreme Flood Events and Some Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diez, J. Javier

2013-04-01

The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the paper analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market". The event, as frequently, was due to a meteorological phenomenon known as "gota fría" (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish east to southeast inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn season there, and, as it happens, in other places around the world (East/Southeast Africa). Their occurrence, however shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes, on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons do). As a matter of fact, all of these equivalent though different phenomena may have different magnitude each time. This paper describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold drop phenomenon as a whole, on the generation of its rains and on the different natures and consequences of its flood. This paper explains also the ways in which the maritime weather in front of the basin and the consequent sea level govern floods on the lowest zone of any hydrographical basin, showing that event as a real

Effects of an Extreme Flood on Trace Elements in River Water-From Urban Stream to Major River Basin.

PubMed

Barber, Larry B; Paschke, Suzanne S; Battaglin, William A; Douville, Chris; Fitzgerald, Kevin C; Keefe, Steffanie H; Roth, David A; Vajda, Alan M

2017-09-19

Major floods adversely affect water quality through surface runoff, groundwater discharge, and damage to municipal water infrastructure. Despite their importance, it can be difficult to assess the effects of floods on streamwater chemistry because of challenges collecting samples and the absence of baseline data. This study documents water quality during the September 2013 extreme flood in the South Platte River, Colorado, USA. Weekly time-series water samples were collected from 3 urban source waters (municipal tap water, streamwater, and wastewater treatment facility effluent) under normal-flow and flood conditions. In addition, water samples were collected during the flood at 5 locations along the South Platte River and from 7 tributaries along the Colorado Front Range. Samples were analyzed for 54 major and trace elements. Specific chemical tracers, representing different natural and anthropogenic sources and geochemical behaviors, were used to compare streamwater composition before and during the flood. The results differentiate hydrological processes that affected water quality: (1) in the upper watershed, runoff diluted most dissolved constituents, (2) in the urban corridor and lower watershed, runoff mobilized soluble constituents accumulated on the landscape and contributed to stream loading, and (3) flood-induced groundwater discharge mobilized soluble constituents stored in the vadose zone.

Effects of an extreme flood on trace elements in river water—From urban stream to major river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barber, Larry B.; Paschke, Suzanne; Battaglin, William A.; Douville, Chris; Fitzgerald, Kevin C.; Keefe, Steffanie H.; Roth, David A.; Vajda, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Major floods adversely affect water quality through surface runoff, groundwater discharge, and damage to municipal water infrastructure. Despite their importance, it can be difficult to assess the effects of floods on streamwater chemistry because of challenges collecting samples and the absence of baseline data. This study documents water quality during the September 2013 extreme flood in the South Platte River, Colorado, USA. Weekly time-series water samples were collected from 3 urban source waters (municipal tap water, streamwater, and wastewater treatment facility effluent) under normal-flow and flood conditions. In addition, water samples were collected during the flood at 5 locations along the South Platte River and from 7 tributaries along the Colorado Front Range. Samples were analyzed for 54 major and trace elements. Specific chemical tracers, representing different natural and anthropogenic sources and geochemical behaviors, were used to compare streamwater composition before and during the flood. The results differentiate hydrological processes that affected water quality: (1) in the upper watershed, runoff diluted most dissolved constituents, (2) in the urban corridor and lower watershed, runoff mobilized soluble constituents accumulated on the landscape and contributed to stream loading, and (3) flood-induced groundwater discharge mobilized soluble constituents stored in the vadose zone.

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Vadose Zone Nitrate Transport Dynamics Resulting from Agricultural Groundwater Banking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, N. P.; McLaughlin, S.; Dahlke, H. E.

2017-12-01

In recent years, California's increased reliance on groundwater resources to meet agricultural and municipal demands has resulted in significant overdraft and water quality issues. Agricultural groundwater banking (AGB) has emerged as a promising groundwater replenishment opportunity in California; AGB is a form of managed aquifer recharge where farmland is flooded during the winter using excess surface water in order to recharge the underlying groundwater. Suitable farmland that is connected to water delivery systems is available for AGB throughout the Central Valley. However, questions remain how AGB could be implemented on fertilized agricultural fields such that nitrate leaching from the root zone is minimized. Here, we present results from field and soil column studies that investigate the transport dynamics of nitrogen in the root and deeper vadose zone during flooding events. We are specifically interested in estimating how timing and duration of flooding events affect percolation rates, leaching and nitrification/denitrification processes in three soil types within the Central Valley. Laboratory and field measurements include nitrogen (NO3-, NH4+, NO2-, N2O), redox potentials, total organic carbon, dissolved oxygen, moisture content and EC. Soil cores are collected in the field before and after recharge events up to a depth of 4m, while other sensors monitor field conditions continuously. Preliminary results from the three field sites show that significant portions of the applied floodwater (12-62 cm) infiltrated below the root zone: 96.1% (Delhi), 88.6% (Modesto) and 76.8% (Orland). Analysis of the soil cores indicate that 70% of the residual nitrate was flushed from the sandy soil, while the fine sandy loam showed only a 5% loss and in some cores even an increase in soil nitrate (in the upper 20cm). Column experiments support these trends and indicate that increases in soil nitrate in the upper root zone might be due to organic nitrogen mineralization and

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

Analysis of the influence of the interlayer staggered zone in the basalt of Jinsha River Basin on the main buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Qiaona; Huang, Jiangwei

2018-02-01

In this paper, the finite element software FEFLOW is used to simulate the seepage field of the interlayer staggered zone C2 in the basalt of Jinsha River Basin. The influence of the interlayer staggered zone C2 on the building is analyzed. Combined with the waterproof effect of current design scheme of anti-seepage curtain, the seepage field in the interlayer staggered zone C2 is discussed under different design schemes. The optimal design scheme of anti-seepage curtain is put forward. The results showed that the case four can effectively reduce the head and hydraulic gradient of underground powerhouse area, and improve the groundwater seepage field in the plant area.

Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Time and again, floods around the world illustrate the devastating impact they can have on societies. Furthermore, the expectation that the flood damages can increase over time with climate, land-use change and social growth in flood prone-areas has raised the public and other stakeholders' (governments, international organization, re-insurance companies and emergency responders) awareness for the need to manage risks in order to mitigate their causes and consequences. In this light, the choice of appropriate measures, the assessment of the costs and effects of such measures, and their prioritization are crucial for decision makers. As a result, a priori flood risk assessment has become a key part of flood management practices with the aim of minimizing the total costs related to the risk management cycle. In this context, The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the delineation of flood risk maps on the bases of most appropriate and advanced tools, with particular attention on limiting required economic efforts. The main aim of these risk maps is to provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs) by considering both costs and benefits of alternatives and results from consultation with all interested parties. In this context, this research project developed a free and open-source (FOSS) GIS software, called FloodRisk, to operatively support stakeholders in their compliance with the FRMPs. FloodRisk aims to facilitate the development of risk maps and the evaluation and management of current and future flood risk for multi-purpose applications. This new approach overcomes the limits of the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, which does not permit a suitable evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies, because the vulnerability component cannot be properly assessed. Moreover, FloodRisk is also able to involve the citizens in the flood

Extent and frequency of floods on Delaware River in vicinity of Belvidere, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farlekas, George M.

1966-01-01

control, such as dams and levees. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the comprehensive plans for development of the Delaware River basin.Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on recommended general use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for the optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rest with the state and local interests. The preparation of this report was undertaken after consultation with representatives of the Lehigh-Northampton Counties, Pennsylvania, Joint Planning Commission and the Warren County, New Jersey, Regional Planning Board and after both had demonstrated their need for flood-plain information and their willingness to consider flood-plain regulations.

Development of flood profiles and flood-inundation maps for the Village of Killbuck, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostheimer, Chad J.

2013-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a reach of Killbuck Creek near the Village of Killbuck, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Holmes County, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Killbuck Creek near Killbuck (03139000) and were completed as part of an update to Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood-Insurance Study. The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. The digital maps also have been submitted for inclusion in the data libraries of the USGS interactive Flood Inundation Mapper. Data from the streamgage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating a steady-state step-backwater model to an established streamgage rating curve. The step-backwater model then was used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 10 flood stages at the streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas.

Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

How can we deal with ANN in flood forecasting? As a simulation model or updating kernel!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan Saddagh, Mohammad; Javad Abedini, Mohammad

2010-05-01

Flood forecasting and early warning, as a non-structural measure for flood control, is often considered to be the most effective and suitable alternative to mitigate the damage and human loss caused by flood. Forecast results which are output of hydrologic, hydraulic and/or black box models should secure accuracy of flood values and timing, especially for long lead time. The application of the artificial neural network (ANN) in flood forecasting has received extensive attentions in recent years due to its capability to capture the dynamics inherent in complex processes including flood. However, results obtained from executing plain ANN as simulation model demonstrate dramatic reduction in performance indices as lead time increases. This paper is intended to monitor the performance indices as it relates to flood forecasting and early warning using two different methodologies. While the first method employs a multilayer neural network trained using back-propagation scheme to forecast output hydrograph of a hypothetical river for various forecast lead time up to 6.0 hr, the second method uses 1D hydrodynamic MIKE11 model as forecasting model and multilayer neural network as updating kernel to monitor and assess the performance indices compared to ANN alone in light of increase in lead time. Results presented in both graphical and tabular format indicate superiority of MIKE11 coupled with ANN as updating kernel compared to ANN as simulation model alone. While plain ANN produces more accurate results for short lead time, the errors increase expeditiously for longer lead time. The second methodology provides more accurate and reliable results for longer forecast lead time.

Detection of dominant runoff generation processes in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, Vito; Fiorentino, Mauro; Gioia, Andrea; Manfreda, Salvatore

2010-05-01

The investigation on hydrologic similarity represents one of the most exciting challenges faced by hydrologists in the last few years, in order to reduce uncertainty on flood prediction in ungauged basins (e.g., IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - Sivapalan et al., 2003). In perspective, the identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms may provide a strategy for catchment classification and identification hydrologically omogeneous regions. In this context, we exploited the framework of theoretically derived flood probability distributions, in order to interpret the physical behavior of real basins. Recent developments on theoretically derived distributions have highlighted that in a given basin different runoff processes may coexistence and modify or affect the shape of flood distributions. The identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms represents a key signatures of flood distributions providing an insight in hydrologic similarity. Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000) introduced a novel distribution of flood peak annual maxima, the "IF" distribution, which exploited the variable source area concept, coupled with a runoff threshold having scaling properties. More recently, Gioia et al (2008) introduced the Two Component-IF (TCIF) distribution, generalizing the IF distribution, based on two different threshold mechanisms, associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events. Indeed, ordinary floods are mostly due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, often responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered by severe rainfalls exceeding a threshold storage in a large portion of the basin. Within this scheme, we focused on the application of both models (IF and TCIF) over a considerable number of catchments belonging to different regions of Southern Italy. In particular, we stressed, as a case of strong general interest in

Coupling flood forecasting and social media crowdsourcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalas, Milan; Kliment, Tomas; Salamon, Peter

2016-04-01

Social and mainstream media monitoring is being more and more recognized as valuable source of information in disaster management and response. The information on ongoing disasters could be detected in very short time and the social media can bring additional information to traditional data feeds (ground, remote observation schemes). Probably the biggest attempt to use the social media in the crisis management was the activation of the Digital Humanitarian Network by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in response to Typhoon Yolanda. The network of volunteers performing rapid needs & damage assessment by tagging reports posted to social media which were then used by machine learning classifiers as a training set to automatically identify tweets referring to both urgent needs and offers of help. In this work we will present the potential of coupling a social media streaming and news monitoring application ( GlobalFloodNews - www.globalfloodsystem.com) with a flood forecasting system (www.globalfloods.eu) and the geo-catalogue of the OGC services discovered in the Google Search Engine (WMS, WFS, WCS, etc.) to provide a full suite of information available to crisis management centers as fast as possible. In GlobalFloodNews we use advanced filtering of the real-time Twitter stream, where the relevant information is automatically extracted using natural language and signal processing techniques. The keyword filters are adjusted and optimized automatically using machine learning algorithms as new reports are added to the system. In order to refine the search results the forecasting system will be triggering an event-based search on the social media and OGC services relevant for crisis response (population distribution, critical infrastructure, hospitals etc.). The current version of the system makes use of USHAHIDI Crowdmap platform, which is designed to easily crowdsource information using multiple channels, including SMS, email

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

PubMed Central

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

PubMed

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Flood-Ring Formation and Root Development in Response to Experimental Flooding of Young Quercus robur Trees

PubMed Central

Copini, Paul; den Ouden, Jan; Robert, Elisabeth M. R.; Tardif, Jacques C.; Loesberg, Walter A.; Goudzwaard, Leo; Sass-Klaassen, Ute

2016-01-01

Spring flooding in riparian forests can cause significant reductions in earlywood-vessel size in submerged stem parts of ring-porous tree species, leading to the presence of ‘flood rings’ that can be used as a proxy to reconstruct past flooding events, potentially over millennia. The mechanism of flood-ring formation and the relation with timing and duration of flooding are still to be elucidated. In this study, we experimentally flooded 4-year-old Quercus robur trees at three spring phenophases (late bud dormancy, budswell, and internode expansion) and over different flooding durations (2, 4, and 6 weeks) to a stem height of 50 cm. The effect of flooding on root and vessel development was assessed immediately after the flooding treatment and at the end of the growing season. Ring width and earlywood-vessel size and density were measured at 25- and 75-cm stem height and collapsed vessels were recorded. Stem flooding inhibited earlywood-vessel development in flooded stem parts. In addition, flooding upon budswell and internode expansion led to collapsed earlywood vessels below the water level. At the end of the growing season, mean earlywood-vessel size in the flooded stem parts (upon budswell and internode expansion) was always reduced by approximately 50% compared to non-flooded stem parts and 55% compared to control trees. This reduction was already present 2 weeks after flooding and occurred independent of flooding duration. Stem and root flooding were associated with significant root dieback after 4 and 6 weeks and mean radial growth was always reduced with increasing flooding duration. By comparing stem and root flooding, we conclude that flood rings only occur after stem flooding. As earlywood-vessel development was hampered during flooding, a considerable number of narrow earlywood vessels present later in the season, must have been formed after the actual flooding events. Our study indicates that root dieback, together with strongly reduced hydraulic

Sand deposition in the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon from flooding of the Little Colorado River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiele, S.M.; Graf, J.B.; Smith, J.D.

1996-01-01

Methods for computing the volume of sand deposited in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park by floods in major tributaries and for determining redistribution of that sand by main-channel flows are required for successful management of sand-dependent riparian resources. We have derived flow, sediment transport, and bed evolution models based on a gridded topography developed from measured channel topography and used these models to compute deposition in a short reach of the river just downstream from the Little Colorado River, the largest tributary in the park. Model computations of deposition from a Little Colorado River flood in January 1993 were compared to bed changes measured at 15 cross sections. The total difference between changes in cross-sectional area due to deposition computed by the model and the measured changes was 6%. A wide reach with large areas of recirculating flow and large depressions in the main channel accumulated the most sand, whereas a reach with similar planimetric area but a long, narrow shape and relatively small areas of recirculating flow and small depressions in the main channel accumulated only about a seventh as much sand. About 32% of the total deposition was in recirculation zones, 65% was in the main channel, and 3% was deposited along the channel margin away from the recirculation zone. Overall, about 15% of the total input of sand from this Little Colorado River flood was deposited in the first 3 km below the confluence, suggesting that deposition of the flood-derived material extended for only several tens of kilometers downstream from the confluence.

Developing tools and procedures for the collection and storage of flood damage data in the aftermath of flood events: the Poli-RISPOSTA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Mazuran, Mirjana; Arias, Carolina; Minucci, Guido; Atun, Funda; Ardagna, Danilo

2015-04-01

According to a recent JRC report (De Groeve et al., Recording disaster losses, 2013), no measure better than loss over time can provide objective understanding of the path towards resilience. Moreover, damage data collected in the aftermath of floods supply the knowledge base on which a blend of actions can be performed, both in the short and mid time after the occurrence of a flood; among them: the identification of priorities for intervention during emergencies, the definition of compensation schemes, the understanding of damage mechanisms and of the fragilities of the flooded areas so as to improve/reform current risk mitigation strategies (also by means of improved flood damage models). Objective "measurement" of flood losses remains inadequate to meet the above objectives. This is due to a number of reasons that include: the diversity of intent for data collection, the lack of standardization on how to collect and storage data (including the lack of agreed definitions) among responsible subjects, and last but not least a lack of legislation to support the collection process. In such a context, the aim of this contribution is to discuss the results from the Poli-RISPOSTA (stRumentI per la protezione civile a Supporto delle POpolazioni nel poST Alluvione) project, a research project founded by Politecnico di Milano which is intended to develop tools and procedures for the collection and storage of high quality, consistent and reliable flood damage data. Specific objectives of Poli-RISPOSTA are: - Develop an operational procedure for collecting, storing and analyzing all damage data, in the aftermath of flood events. Collected data are intended to support a variety of actions, namely: loss accounting, disaster forensic, damage compensation and flood risk modelling; - Develop educational material and modules for training practitioners in the use of the procedure; - Develop enhanced IT tools to support the procedure, easing as much as possible the collection of

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

2015-04-01

In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk

After the flood: consistency in DOM response to the 2010/2011 Australian floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shutova, Y.; Baker, A.; Bridgeman, J.; Henderson, R.

2014-12-01

The 2010/2011 floods in Eastern Australia were one of the worst on record, causing more than one billion AUD of damages and killing 35 people. This field campaign, monitoring raw water DOM concentration and character on three contrasting rivers across the region captured the late recession curve (October 2011- September 2012). DOM was characterized using fluorescence excitation-emission matrix (EEM) spectra with PARAFAC analysis; δ 13C-DOC; and molecular size using liquid chromatography with organic carbon, UV254 and nitrogen detection (LC-OCD) to identify DOC fractions: biopolymers, humic substance (HS), building blocks (BB), low molecular weight acids, and low molecular weight neutrals. Despite the difference in catchment and climatic zones, similar trends were observed in all three rivers, where DOC concentrations gradually decreased in river streams over a year from 8-11 mgCL-1 to 3-4 mgCL-1, followed by similar changes of HS, BB and fluorescent terrestrially delivered DOM components (C1-C3). In Allyn and Patterson rivers the proportion of HS, fluorescent terrestrially delivered DOM components (C1, C2) in DOC have decreased, in contrast to Logan River, where the ratio of HS/DOC was highly variable and showed no particular trends. The proportion of other DOC components remained almost the same. Molecular weight of the HS declined from 700 gmol-1 to 610 gmol-1 in all sites. δ 13C-DOC increased during monitoring, this could be linked to general decrease of DOM proportion delivered from C4 type plants after the flood. Overall, although DOC concentration decreased over the year post flood at all sites, most importantly the composition of DOM changed, with major changes occurring in proportion of humic-like and fluorescent terrestrially delivered DOM. Therefore it is important to monitor DOM character to be able to assess the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on the DOM transport and transformation.

Flood damage estimation of companies: A comparison of Stage-Damage-Functions and Random Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sieg, Tobias; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

The development of appropriate flood damage models plays an important role not only for the damage assessment after an event but also to develop adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. So called Stage-Damage-Functions (SDFs) are often applied as a standard approach to estimate flood damage. These functions assign a certain damage to the water depth depending on the use or other characteristics of the exposed objects. Recent studies apply machine learning algorithms like Random Forests (RFs) to model flood damage. These algorithms usually consider more influencing variables and promise to depict a more detailed insight into the damage processes. In addition they provide an inherent validation scheme. Our study focuses on direct, tangible damage of single companies. The objective is to model and validate the flood damage suffered by single companies with SDFs and RFs. The data sets used are taken from two surveys conducted after the floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in the years 2002 and 2013 in Germany. Damage to buildings (n = 430), equipment (n = 651) as well as goods and stock (n = 530) are taken into account. The model outputs are validated via a comparison with the actual flood damage acquired by the surveys and subsequently compared with each other. This study investigates the gain in model performance with the use of additional data and the advantages and disadvantages of the RFs compared to SDFs. RFs show an increase in model performance with an increasing amount of data records over a comparatively large range, while the model performance of the SDFs is already saturated for a small set of records. In addition, the RFs are able to identify damage influencing variables, which improves the understanding of damage processes. Hence, RFs can slightly improve flood damage predictions and provide additional insight into the underlying mechanisms compared to SDFs.

Interactions between the flooding regime and floodplain grasslands in the Tana River Delta, in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, Crystele; Musila, Winfred; Duvail, Stéphanie; Kergoat, Laurent; Hiernaux, Pierre; Grippa, Manuela; Albergel, Jean

2017-04-01

The floodplain grasslands of the Tana River Delta, located on the East African coast in Kenya, form part of an intertwined socio-ecological deltaic system of high biodiversity value that delivers numerous goods and services. Mainly composed of Echinochloa stagnina (Retz) P. Beauv., a high-value forage species, this ecosystem is the major dry-season grazing grounds of the local pastoralist communities. The construction of hydroelectric infrastructure has led to a modification of the flooding regime. The impacts of the resulting reduction of floods in the deltaic zone on ecosystem properties and services still need to be assessed. In such a perspective, this study characterizes the link between the flooding regime of the Tana River and the growth pattern of its floodplain grassland. Aboveground dry phytomass was sampled for 15 months under a wide variety of naturally flooded and non-flooded conditions and controlled irrigation and cutting frequency treatments. Annual aboveground dry phytomass attained high values between 11 T.ha-1 and 32 T.ha-1 and annual net primary production of the grasslands reached 35 T.ha-1.year-1. Growth rates clearly depended on the flooding regime, management and climate conditions and were on average more than twice as fast during, and 50% faster after the floods, relative to pre-flood conditions. A plant growth model allowed testing the effect of different flooding regimes on plant productivity, confirming very low productivity in the absence of floods. These results suggest that rangeland and water management for the Tana River deltaic wetlands are tightly linked. The projected construction of another dam could lead to a reduction of flood extent and period and a decrease of grassland productivity and growth duration. Mitigation of this type of negative impacts, which will have direct and adverse consequences for the pastoralist communities as well as on the delivery of other goods and services, needs to be undertaken.

Food Vulnerability and Alluvial Farming for Food Security in Central Dry Zone Area of Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, M. S.; Choudhary, K.; Evers, M.; Kupriyanov, A.

2017-10-01

The central dry zone area of Myanmar is the most water stressed and also one of the most food insecure regions in the country. In the Dry Zone area, the total population is 10.1 million people in 54 townships, in which approximately 43 % live in below poverty line and 40-50 % of the rural population is landless. Agriculture is the most important economic sector in Myanmar as it is essential for national food security and a major source of livelihood for its people. In this region the adverse effects of climate change such as late or early onset of monsoon season, longer dry spells, erratic rainfall, increasing temperature, heavy rains, stronger typhoons, extreme spatial-temporal variability of rainfall, high intensities, limited rainfall events in the growing season, heat stress, drought, flooding, sea water intrusion, land degradation, desertification, deforestation and other natural disasters are believed to be a major constraint to food insecurity. For food vulnerability, we use following indicators: slope, precipitation, vegetation, soil, erosion, land degradation and harvest failure in ArcGIS software. The erosion is influenced by rainfall and slope, while land degradation is directly related to vegetation, drainage and soil. While harvest failure can be generate by rainfall and flood potential zones. Results show that around 45 % study area comes under very high erosion danger level, 70 % under average harvest failure, 59 % intermediate land degradation area and the overall around 45 % study area comes under insecure food vulnerability zone. Our analysis shows an increase in alluvial farming by 1745.33 km2 since 1988 to reduce the insecure food vulnerability. Food vulnerability map is also relevant to increased population and low income areas. The extreme climatic events are likely increase in frequency and magnitude of serious drought periods and extreme floods. Food insecurity is an important thing that must

Model assessment of atmospheric pollution control schemes for critical emission regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Shixian; An, Xingqin; Liu, Zhao; Sun, Zhaobin; Hou, Qing

2016-01-01

In recent years, the atmospheric environment in portions of China has become significantly degraded and the need for emission controls has become urgent. Because more international events are being planned, it is important to implement air quality assurance targeted at significant events held over specific periods of time. This study sets Yanqihu (YQH), Beijing, the location of the 2014 Beijing APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit, as the target region. By using the atmospheric inversion model FLEXPART, we determined the sensitive source zones that had the greatest impact on the air quality of the YQH region in November 2012. We then used the air-quality model Models-3/CMAQ and a high-resolution emissions inventory of the Beijing-Tianjian-Hebei region to establish emission reduction tests for the entire source area and for specific sensitive source zones. This was achieved by initiating emission reduction schemes at different ratios and different times. The results showed that initiating a moderate reduction of emissions days prior to a potential event is more beneficial to the air quality of Beijing than initiating a high-strength reduction campaign on the day of the event. The sensitive source zone of Beijing (BJ-Sens) accounts for 54.2% of the total source area of Beijing (BJ), but its reduction effect reaches 89%-100% of the total area, with a reduction efficiency 1.6-1.9 times greater than that of the entire area. The sensitive source zone of Huabei (HuaB-Sens.) only represents 17.6% of the total area of Huabei (HuaB), but its emission reduction effect reaches 59%-97% of the entire area, with a reduction efficiency 4.2-5.5 times greater than that of the total area. The earlier that emission reduction measures are implemented, the greater the effect they have on preventing the transmission of pollutants. In addition, expanding the controlling areas to sensitive provinces and cities around Beijing (HuaB-sens) can significantly accelerate the reduction

Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Large-Scale Systems With Unknown Dead Zone.

PubMed

Chen, Mou; Tao, Gang

2016-08-01

In this paper, an adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is proposed and analyzed for a class of uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems with unknown dead zone and external disturbances. To tackle the unknown nonlinear interaction functions in the large-scale system, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is employed to approximate them. To further handle the unknown approximation errors and the effects of the unknown dead zone and external disturbances, integrated as the compounded disturbances, the corresponding disturbance observers are developed for their estimations. Based on the outputs of the RBFNN and the disturbance observer, the adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is designed for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems by using a decentralized backstepping technique. The closed-loop stability of the adaptive control system is rigorously proved via Lyapunov analysis and the satisfactory tracking performance is achieved under the integrated effects of unknown dead zone, actuator fault, and unknown external disturbances. Simulation results of a mass-spring-damper system are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems.

Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods